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Initial Report Part 11: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Response Kaspi.kz replied shortly on the same day after the report with a statement: "In our view, the report is misleading, inaccurate and misrepresents our business. Being the first company from Kazakhstan to successfully list on Nasdaq has obviously raised our profile amongst short sellers. For those investors who have known us over the years, our reputation speaks for itself." They later released a more detailed explanation about the arguments brought by Culpers: The company emphasized that 99.6% of its 2023 revenue was generated in Kazakhstan, with the remainder coming from operations in Azerbaijan and Ukraine. This information is clearly disclosed in their US IPO prospectus and 20F filings. The company operates under strict regulatory supervision, implementing comprehensive policies
Initial Report Part 11: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Initial Report Part 8: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Moat and Competitive Advantage Network Effects Across segments The largest moat that Kaspi.kz has is the network effects of its super app. Source: Kaspi Kaspi’s payment, marketplace, and finance platforms are highly interrelated. The growth and development of one platform naturally support and accelerate the growth of the others, reinforcing a virtuous cycle. For example, a consumer using Kaspi for managing finances can seamlessly browse the Marketplace for products. Once a purchase decision is made, the user can easily complete the transaction through Kaspi’s integrated payment system, given that their financial information is already stored in the app. The interactions between Kaspi's various platforms create a self-reinforcing flywheel that drives profitable growth and provides signific
Initial Report Part 8: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Initial Report Part 6: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Currency The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) heavily manages the Kazakh tenge, but the currency remains vulnerable to frequent devaluations during risky external conditions. The last major devaluation occurred in 2015 when the NBK abandoned its USD peg due to historically low oil prices, which depleted the Bank's foreign exchange reserves. Source: JP Morgan While the risk of such an event is currently low, given the tailwinds oil prices are experiencing from the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the country's rising import needs amid an infrastructure construction boom and robust demand are expected to keep the current account in deficit over the coming years, placing depreciatory pressures on the tenge. Analysts forecast the Kazakh tenge to trade within the range of KZT430-450 per USD ov
Initial Report Part 6: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Initial Report Part 5: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Foreign Policy Dynamics and Regional Position Kazakhstan's geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant changes, shaped by its historical ties to Russia, strategic location, and evolving multi-vector foreign policy. The country currently finds itself in a delicate position, balancing its dependence on Russia with the need to diversify its economic and diplomatic relationships. At present, Kazakhstan's energy sector remains heavily reliant on Russia. Approximately 90% of its oil exports flow through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which traverses Russian territory and is partially owned by Moscow. This dependency has been highlighted by past pipeline interruptions, which have demonstrated Kazakhstan's vulnerability. A potential shutdown of this crucial export route could jeopardi
Initial Report Part 5: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Initial Report Part 3: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

5.Advertising services - advertising campaigns on the platforms, which may display ads on the Kaspi.kz Super App to users through product searches, suggested products and banner ads. Two forms of ads - product ads and brand ads Product ads Brand ads   Source: Kaspi Q2 2024 Report Promotional periods such as Kaspi Juma, a 3 day national shopping festival (Kaspi's version of 9.9 / 10.10 / 11.11 in the context of Shopee or USA's Black Friday or China's Single Day) Kaspi Juma usually takes place twice a year, in the summer and the autumn, and allows consumers to purchase any goods from participating merchants via a buy-now-pay-later consumer finance product with interest-free instalments for up to 24 months. This will be changed to thrice a year from 2024 onwards to cater to the diff
Initial Report Part 3: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Initial Report Part 2: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Fintech Platform Kaspi˖s Fintech segment is its consumer lending and deposit businesses. The platform enables consumers to access instantly and seamlessly, primarily through Kaspi.kz Super App, the Company’s digital finance products, including consumer finance and deposit. Fintech is Kaspi˖s largest, but slowest growing and least profitable (from a margin perspective) operating segment, accounting for 54% of revenue and 35% of net income, in 20˖23. It is notable that Kaspi originates 100% of loans from its own balance sheet (vs 2% for Ant/Alipay). Kaspi's fintech platform has shown impressive growth, particularly in its Total Finance Volume (TFV), which serves as a key indicator of the platform's financial services adoption and usage. The TFV has exhibited strong year-over-year growth at 3
Initial Report Part 2: Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI), 117%% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Dean Tay)

Initial Report Part 2: Pentair PLC (NYSE:PNR), 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Xinfei TAN)

ESG Consideration Water scarcity is a critical long-term theme in sustainability and ESG investing. As severe weather and rising demand increase pressure on water resources, efficient systems and water reuse become essential. The global water treatment market, valued at $303 billion in 2022, is expected to grow at a 7% CAGR, driven by the need for sustainable solutions. Water is crucial for public health and economic development, and its importance is recognized through strict regulation and a stable market. When stock picking Pentair, its focus on water treatment and sustainability is a key strength. Pentair’s products align with growing demand for efficient water management, positioning it well within the expanding market. This makes Pentair a strong candidate for investors prioritizing
Initial Report Part 2: Pentair PLC (NYSE:PNR), 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Xinfei TAN)

Initial Report Part 1: Pentair PLC (NYSE:PNR), 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Xinfei TAN)

Linkedin: Xin Fei Tan Company Overview: Move, Improve & Enjoy Water Pentair is a leading company specializing in water management technologies and solutions. Their core focus areas include water filtration, flow control, and related water management systems for various sectors including residential, commercial, and industrial markets.The company operates through three main business segments: Pool Water Solutions Industrial & Flow Technologies Pentair's Business Segments Pentair's Segment Breakdown Pentair's Revenue Breakdown With a global presence spanning 24 countries, Pentair maintains 135 locations and employs approximately 11,000 people. Their diverse product portfolio is designed to address critical water-related challenges, including: Providing access to clean, safe water Red
Initial Report Part 1: Pentair PLC (NYSE:PNR), 38% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Xinfei TAN)

Initial Report Part 2: Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX), 7% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Pyae Phyo SHUN)

6.Risks and Mitigation • Intensifying Competition in the Streaming Market The streaming industry has become increasingly saturated, with formidable competitors such as Disney+, Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max, and Apple TV+ rapidly expanding their content libraries and global reach. These players not only provide alternative streaming options but also have access to vast resources, enabling them to produce high-budget original content and secure exclusive licensing deals. The rise of free, ad-supported streaming services (FAST) is also adding pressure on subscription-based models like Netflix. Netflix maintains its competitive edge through continued investments in original programming and personalization technology. It spent over $17 billion in 2023 on content production, ensuring a stead
Initial Report Part 2: Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX), 7% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Pyae Phyo SHUN)

Initial Report Part 1: Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX), 7% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Pyae Phyo SHUN)

1. Company Overview Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is a global streaming entertainment service offering a wide variety of TV series, documentaries, and feature films across a range of genres and languages. Founded in 1997 and headquartered in Los Gatos, California, Netflix has grown from a DVD rental service to a dominant player in the streaming industry, serving over 230 million subscribers worldwide. The company's mission is to entertain the world by providing on-demand, commercial-free streaming experiences.   2.Business Segments In 2023, Netflix's total revenue was $33.7 billion. The company's revenue is primarily derived from two business segments: streaming and DVD rentals. The streaming segment, which includes both domestic and international streaming, accounted for 99% of t
Initial Report Part 1: Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX), 7% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Pyae Phyo SHUN)

Initial Report(part 3): Sprout Social (NASDAQ:SPT), 104% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Ryan ANG)

Management and Capital Allocation and Culture Stacked. That’s the word to describe Sprout Social’s management team. Despite the small market cap, it is filled with seasoned executives from enterprise companies who were previously holding key executive roles in Salesforce, Google, Atlassian and ZenDesk. The alignment of skill sets toward the next chapter of enterprise focus is particularly noteworthy, especially with the recent addition of new Chief Product Officer Erika Trautman, who previously served as Product Director for Google Drive and Editors (Docs, Sheets, Slides, Forms) and more recently at Atlassian (Trello, Jira, Confluence). Additionally, Mike Wolf, who most recently served as the Chief Revenue Officer for Salesforce, has joined as the new Chief Revenue Officer. These seasoned
Initial Report(part 3): Sprout Social (NASDAQ:SPT), 104% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Ryan ANG)

Initial Report(part 2): Sprout Social (NASDAQ:SPT), 104% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Ryan ANG)

Edge Sprout Social has several advantages over other players, including Sprinklr, in this space. First, Sprout Social holds a significant technical edge over Sprinklr because its platform is built on a single-code base, whereas competitors typically use an acquisition bolt-on solution. This difference impacts users in subtle but important ways, particularly in terms of the seamless UX/UI experience. It is also the single-code base architecture that allows it to be natively integrated and embedded into Salesforce products, providing the same look and feel for the customer as well as the functionality that one would expect from a native product. In 2020, Salesforce announced it would retire its own product, Social Studio, and recommended Sprout Social as the preferred partner for Salesforce
Initial Report(part 2): Sprout Social (NASDAQ:SPT), 104% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Ryan ANG)

Initial Report(part 1): Sprout Social (NASDAQ:SPT), 104% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Ryan ANG)

Investment Summary Sprout Social is a social media management solution that enables enterprises to leverage social media for research, analytics, crisis management, customer support, and marketing. There is a transformation that is happening in Sprout Social, leading to a creation of a moat that I think is underappreciated by investors today. Sprout Social, originally a small and medium enterprises (SME) solution, has transitioned into an enterprise marketing solution. This transition was ignited by an exclusive Salesforce partnership which allows Sprout Social to be natively integrated and embedded inside Salesforce platforms and products. This is crucial because it provides a seamless experience for users, while allowing users to obtain fully connected data pipes between Sprout Social an
Initial Report(part 1): Sprout Social (NASDAQ:SPT), 104% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Ryan ANG)

Initial Report(part 2): Toast Inc. (NYSE:TOST), 49% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Elaine CHIA)

Investment Thesis a. Payment and Software combination increases monetization opportunities Toast’s combination of software and payment revenue is attractive and puts the company at the heart of restaurant operations, resulting in a growing ARR. The platform’s breadth and depth of product solutions have increased monetization opportunities. This is shown in the increased of SaaS ARPU to US$30K in Q1’24, from US$20K in Q1’2021 (a 50% increase) while Locations with >US$10K SaaS ARPU increased to 14$ in Q1’24 from 2% in Q2020. Toast have also done several strategic acquisitions to expand its payment and software’s product portfolio. An example would be the acquisition of Sling in 2022, an employee scheduling, communication and management solution, to expand into team management space. Hence
Initial Report(part 2): Toast Inc. (NYSE:TOST), 49% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Elaine CHIA)

Initial Report(part 2): Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LW), 33% 5-yr Potential Upside

04 Valuation Figure 3: LW Valuation A discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation model was used to value the business. Using conservative financial estimates and valuation multiples to forecast for the next 5 years, a 33.03% upside was derived. 05 Risks 5.1 Climate Change LW's reliance on specific regions known for optimal potato growing conditions exposes it to the risks associated with climate change. Unpredictable weather events such as extreme heat, droughts, heavy rainfalls, and flooding can adversely affect potato crop performance. For example, the poor quality of the crop in the Pacific Northwest in 2021 resulted in lower raw potato utilization rates and increased production costs. Moreover, the geographic concentration of ideal growing conditions in regions like Washington, Idaho, a
Initial Report(part 2): Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LW), 33% 5-yr Potential Upside

Initial Report(part 1): Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LW), 33% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Nicole TAN)

Founded in 1950 and headquartered in Eagle, Idaho, Lamb Weston (NYSE: LW) is a global leader in frozen potato and vegetable products, serving the foodservice and retail sectors worldwide. The company operates through four key segments: Foodservice, Retail, Global, and Other, with Global contributing significantly to its revenue. Lamb Weston employs approximately 10,300 people and emphasizes sustainability across its operations, aiming to reduce environmental impact and engage in community initiatives. The global frozen food industry, valued at USD 282.8 billion in 2023 and expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.1% to USD 460.8 billion by 2033, is driven by changing consumer lifestyles and technological advancements in freezing technologies. Lamb Weston's investment thesis highlights its position
Initial Report(part 1): Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (NYSE:LW), 33% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Nicole TAN)

Initial Report(part 1): NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE), 6% 3-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Nelson WONG)

Company Overview NextEra Energy, Inc. (NYSE: NEE) is one of the largest electric utility companies in the United States and a global leader in renewable energy. Some key facts about the company: Founded: 1925 Headquarters: Juno Beach Florida, USA CEO: John W. Ketchum GICS Industry: Energy and Utilities Business & Revenue Segments NextEra Energy operates primarily through two key subsidiaries: Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) [70%~ of assets]: This is NEE’s rate-regulated electric utility arm, providing electricity to approximately 5.6 million customer accounts in Florida. FPL has a generating capacity of about 33,276 megawatts and extensive transmission and distribution infrastructure, including 90,000 circuit miles of lines and 883 substations. [largest rate-regulated utility i
Initial Report(part 1): NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE), 6% 3-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Nelson WONG)

Initial Report(part 5): Progyny Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNY), 80% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Leon LEONG)

2. Durable Powers to sustain an enduring period of differential returns, Smart Cycle model will continue to differentiate Progyny from competitorsCurrently, Progyny is the only fertility benefits management company in the United States that does not utilize a max dollar benefit model for its fertility benefits solution, meaning Members or patients under Progyny's platform do not have to worry about hitting their benefits limit before achieving a successful pregnancy. Existing competitors will find it difficult to switch from a max-dollar benefit model to a model similar to Progyny's due to potential disruptions to their business. Even if they do change their models towards something similar to Progyny's Smart Cycles, which will probably involve recontracting their existing clients with new
Initial Report(part 5): Progyny Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNY), 80% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Leon LEONG)

Initial Report(part 3): Progyny Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNY), 80% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Leon LEONG)

Analyzing the Powers possesed by Progyny Power refers to a set of conditions creating the potential for persistent differential returns for a company, and must fulfill the conditions of generating a benefit to the Power holder and a barrier to a challenger. It is only with the existence of powers that allows a company to create value from growth as incremental returns exceed its cost of capital over a prolonged period of time. I believe Progyny currently possesses 4 out of 7 powers: Counter-positioning; Switching costs; Scale economies; and Network economies Counter-Positioning Progyny is the only benefits management company today that does not utilize a dollar maximum benefit model, and instead relies on its Smart Cycle model for its Clients and Members. This is a key differentiator and o
Initial Report(part 3): Progyny Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNY), 80% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Leon LEONG)

Initial Report(part 1): Progyny Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNY), 80% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Leon LEONG)

Company Introduction Progyny or ("the Company") is a fertility benefits management company which operates in the United States. The Company launched its fertility benefits solution in 2016 with its first five employer clients, and has since grown its current base of clients to over 460 employer clients, providing fertility benefits solutions to almost 6.4 million lives as of March 31, 2024. On 24 June 2024, the Company announced the acquisition of Apryl Fertility Benefits, a leading UK-based fertility benefits management provider that provides fertility benefits solutions to clients from over 100 countries globally. Due to a lack of disclosure of the transaction currently, the analysis of Progyny's business will be based solely on its United States business for now. What are these fertilit
Initial Report(part 1): Progyny Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNY), 80% 5-yr Potential Upside (EIP, Leon LEONG)

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