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埃森豪威尔的持仓
09-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
缺乏新车型,以及FSD推进缓慢,是
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
渐失光环的原因
埃森豪威尔的持仓
09-05
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
AMD任命英伟达前副总裁Keith Strier为全球人工智能市场高级副总裁。没搜到什么时候离职英伟达的,没有竞业禁止条款吗?
埃森豪威尔的持仓
09-04
$拼多多(PDD)$
一天到晚都是‘仅退款’对商家的压榨剥削这类陈词滥调,一个最简单的道理——如果你的商品能够在淘宝京东高价卖完,你会去接受多多的棒槌[龇牙]多多应运而生,就是承接了淘宝京东卖不出的产品,销售不到的客户群体。多多的商业模式其实就是淘宝京东看不上的,多多去做了。多多现在是做大了,但能不能做强做久,就看淘宝京东给不给机会了[鬼脸]刚又在多多买月饼,同一款的价格就是比淘宝京东便宜,如果是假货,这次我就试试‘仅退款’了[得意]
埃森豪威尔的持仓
09-03
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
何小鹏有点好高骛远不接地气,几乎all-in智驾,实际消费者感知和各类测试都没看到领先或差异化的能力,至今也没有没有为变现的销量和市值带来明显的助力,尽管获得了大众和滴滴的垂青,估计依然是最后扭亏的;理想汽车靠增程车和外形内饰设计率先扭亏为盈;蔚来通过服务和高逼格的外形内饰设计夜把品牌形象给树立了起来,换电网络也算是差异化的竞争力。预言的中国主流品牌七家里面目前看无论如何也排不到小鹏汽车,摊子布的挺大,就看能否撑到赚钱的那一天。MONA应该是寄予厚望的一款车,也许能成为分水岭,不知是向上还是向下;看外观应该是小鹏汽车的目前的最好水准,内饰有点拉垮,智驾应该没有惊喜,就看将来OTA,也许只有低价销量才有机会。
埃森豪威尔的持仓
07-12
$台积电(TSM)$
万亿美元的台积电触手可及,今晚台积电继续上涨,总市值来到9945亿美元,距离万亿市值俱乐部只差一步之遥。
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-25
$英伟达(NVDA)$
加油,希望再涨回1300,再拆股一次。
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-20
$高通(QCOM)$
再强调一遍,纳斯达克或许开始加速了,ALL in AI! AI已经掀起了全设备端的更新革命,现有芯片均无法满足大规模AI终端计算的需求。终端,PC,数据中心芯片开始淘汰换代......分析:高通AI芯片虽然入局晚,但目前正在超过英特尔和英伟达
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-20
$蔚来(NIO)$
评论很好,营销费用花在维护车主口碑里的豪华感应该不少,车除了换电和其他车的差异性在哪里?这方面小鹏定位科技,极氪定做运动,理想家庭,做的稍微好一些,以前bba那种357价位分区可能到电车差异没那么大了,4缸6缸8缸12缸的价位差距比电车更宽所以利润率高,保守估计以后要打折到5%。
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-18
$戴尔(DELL)$
预计今年下半年固态硬盘和DRAM的成本将增加15%至 20%,对于厂商来说,则要把压力转嫁给买家。
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-18
$ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$
涨的生气💢怎么还不跌
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-17
$游戏驿站(GME)$
咆哮猫这次可能会反噬自己 大家小心点儿[生气]
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-14
$游戏驿站(GME)$
盘后突破30美金 股东大会推迟到周五 股东大会不知道会不会超预期 但凡有一丁点超预期 周五注定是个精彩之夜
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-14
$游戏驿站(GME)$
不管到哪儿,散户拿到大部分筹码都没有好事。 游戏驿站当我没说
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-14
$博通(AVGO)$
#从博通看HBM# ASIC在AI半导体市场份额占比提升,将消耗更多的HBM:1)24年AI半导体市场总值将达到1070亿美元,ASIC 110亿美元(比例10%)。到2030年,AI半导体市场总值2300亿美元,ASIC 800亿美元(份额 35%),规模增长>7倍。2)英伟达 B100 售价(35000 美元)是谷歌TPU v5e 的售价(2500 美元)的 14 倍,是AWS Inferentia 2 售价(1250 美元)的28倍。HBM在TPU价格中的权重约为25%,在英伟达 GPU 中的权重仅为 5%。意味着ASIC份额的增加,HBM 的消耗也将远远超过(英伟达)GPU。3)谷歌+Meta+字节?(也可能是苹果或亚马逊)是博通的ASIC客户,而博通已经在为谷歌TPU测试来自三星电子、SK海力士和美光的HBM3E样品……
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-13
$苹果(AAPL)$
投机一把,已经做空了苹果。理由是AI对苹果的影响并不大,仅仅是手机上集成了一些AI能力,并不能给工作带来质变。另外苹果今年在大中华区的销售,是有下滑趋势的。2024年第一季度,苹果大中华区营收 163.7 亿美元(约 1185.19 亿元人民币),同比下降 8.1%。同时这几天财报发布后,涨了10%多,PE已经30多了,而营收整体上来讲,并不会有大的增长。从大环境来讲,美股此时处于高位,各大指数创了几年新高,有些泡沫了。只不过这个市场,实在太过疯狂了。短期是涨是跌,实在是个未知数。我所说的都可能是错的,仅仅是个人的想法,千万不要学。
埃森豪威尔的持仓
06-12
$超微电脑(SMCI)$
最坑人的就属它了,英伟达财报后涨了20%多,它生生跌了20%多
埃森豪威尔的持仓
05-31
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
这货之所以最近表现不好,就是因为这里压力太高了同时还有周线压力,一旦突破,就是轻舟。
埃森豪威尔的持仓
05-29
$英伟达(NVDA)$
低开震荡,小幅调整,疑虑已消,明天A股人工智能扛大旗
埃森豪威尔的持仓
05-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉股权投票,马斯克550亿美金的股权激励。照理说以前股东会决定的事情应该给,这次怎么又投票,投票结果有用吗?就是论事,假设投票结果有用,对股价什么影响?一、给550亿股权,按照市值5000多亿,所有人市值稀释10%左右,短期股价跌。二、不给550亿股权,马斯克闹情绪,一言不合走人也是很可能,没有马斯克的特斯拉,就只剩下拉垮了,大跌。怎么看结果都不太好。给股权还好点,相当于一个大A一个跌停,当然能留下马斯克,应该又能回探。如果马斯克一门心思留下来,一个跌停那好像也都不是事。希望通过吧。
埃森豪威尔的持仓
05-24
$蔚来(NIO)$
半年内蔚来的市值会超过理想汽车,蔚来升,理想降。能直接买港股的朋友可以那这俩做对冲,两头都会赚。理想的情况,快的话半年内,慢的话一年内,跌破千亿港币市值。
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不管到哪儿,散户拿到大部分筹码都没有好事。 游戏驿站当我没说","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$ 不管到哪儿,散户拿到大部分筹码都没有好事。 游戏驿站当我没说","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316836821430504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316825172291816,"gmtCreate":1718357680882,"gmtModify":1718357915160,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> #从博通看HBM# ASIC在AI半导体市场份额占比提升,将消耗更多的HBM:1)24年AI半导体市场总值将达到1070亿美元,ASIC 110亿美元(比例10%)。到2030年,AI半导体市场总值2300亿美元,ASIC 800亿美元(份额 35%),规模增长>7倍。2)英伟达 B100 售价(35000 美元)是谷歌TPU v5e 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的消耗也将远远超过(英伟达)GPU。3)谷歌+Meta+字节?(也可能是苹果或亚马逊)是博通的ASIC客户,而博通已经在为谷歌TPU测试来自三星电子、SK海力士和美光的HBM3E样品……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316825172291816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316557047615600,"gmtCreate":1718292352540,"gmtModify":1718294250759,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 投机一把,已经做空了苹果。理由是AI对苹果的影响并不大,仅仅是手机上集成了一些AI能力,并不能给工作带来质变。另外苹果今年在大中华区的销售,是有下滑趋势的。2024年第一季度,苹果大中华区营收 163.7 亿美元(约 1185.19 亿元人民币),同比下降 8.1%。同时这几天财报发布后,涨了10%多,PE已经30多了,而营收整体上来讲,并不会有大的增长。从大环境来讲,美股此时处于高位,各大指数创了几年新高,有些泡沫了。只不过这个市场,实在太过疯狂了。短期是涨是跌,实在是个未知数。我所说的都可能是错的,仅仅是个人的想法,千万不要学。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 投机一把,已经做空了苹果。理由是AI对苹果的影响并不大,仅仅是手机上集成了一些AI能力,并不能给工作带来质变。另外苹果今年在大中华区的销售,是有下滑趋势的。2024年第一季度,苹果大中华区营收 163.7 亿美元(约 1185.19 亿元人民币),同比下降 8.1%。同时这几天财报发布后,涨了10%多,PE已经30多了,而营收整体上来讲,并不会有大的增长。从大环境来讲,美股此时处于高位,各大指数创了几年新高,有些泡沫了。只不过这个市场,实在太过疯狂了。短期是涨是跌,实在是个未知数。我所说的都可能是错的,仅仅是个人的想法,千万不要学。","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 投机一把,已经做空了苹果。理由是AI对苹果的影响并不大,仅仅是手机上集成了一些AI能力,并不能给工作带来质变。另外苹果今年在大中华区的销售,是有下滑趋势的。2024年第一季度,苹果大中华区营收 163.7 亿美元(约 1185.19 亿元人民币),同比下降 8.1%。同时这几天财报发布后,涨了10%多,PE已经30多了,而营收整体上来讲,并不会有大的增长。从大环境来讲,美股此时处于高位,各大指数创了几年新高,有些泡沫了。只不过这个市场,实在太过疯狂了。短期是涨是跌,实在是个未知数。我所说的都可能是错的,仅仅是个人的想法,千万不要学。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316557047615600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316185481171176,"gmtCreate":1718201506292,"gmtModify":1718201901530,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 最坑人的就属它了,英伟达财报后涨了20%多,它生生跌了20%多","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 最坑人的就属它了,英伟达财报后涨了20%多,它生生跌了20%多","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 最坑人的就属它了,英伟达财报后涨了20%多,它生生跌了20%多","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f91139bc845c1f08c69088a1ecbdb8d9","width":"560","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316185481171176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311570459164720,"gmtCreate":1717085529019,"gmtModify":1717085554711,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 这货之所以最近表现不好,就是因为这里压力太高了同时还有周线压力,一旦突破,就是轻舟。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 这货之所以最近表现不好,就是因为这里压力太高了同时还有周线压力,一旦突破,就是轻舟。","text":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 这货之所以最近表现不好,就是因为这里压力太高了同时还有周线压力,一旦突破,就是轻舟。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/837943c261b392c4caf15efd06fc5498","width":"2805","height":"1295"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311570459164720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311209434161200,"gmtCreate":1716997388148,"gmtModify":1716997410463,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 低开震荡,小幅调整,疑虑已消,明天A股人工智能扛大旗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 低开震荡,小幅调整,疑虑已消,明天A股人工智能扛大旗","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 低开震荡,小幅调整,疑虑已消,明天A股人工智能扛大旗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad056bc5ed34549161a801e6f2aca984","width":"566","height":"300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311209434161200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309358127030416,"gmtCreate":1716536957860,"gmtModify":1716565202408,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 特斯拉股权投票,马斯克550亿美金的股权激励。照理说以前股东会决定的事情应该给,这次怎么又投票,投票结果有用吗?就是论事,假设投票结果有用,对股价什么影响?一、给550亿股权,按照市值5000多亿,所有人市值稀释10%左右,短期股价跌。二、不给550亿股权,马斯克闹情绪,一言不合走人也是很可能,没有马斯克的特斯拉,就只剩下拉垮了,大跌。怎么看结果都不太好。给股权还好点,相当于一个大A一个跌停,当然能留下马斯克,应该又能回探。如果马斯克一门心思留下来,一个跌停那好像也都不是事。希望通过吧。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 特斯拉股权投票,马斯克550亿美金的股权激励。照理说以前股东会决定的事情应该给,这次怎么又投票,投票结果有用吗?就是论事,假设投票结果有用,对股价什么影响?一、给550亿股权,按照市值5000多亿,所有人市值稀释10%左右,短期股价跌。二、不给550亿股权,马斯克闹情绪,一言不合走人也是很可能,没有马斯克的特斯拉,就只剩下拉垮了,大跌。怎么看结果都不太好。给股权还好点,相当于一个大A一个跌停,当然能留下马斯克,应该又能回探。如果马斯克一门心思留下来,一个跌停那好像也都不是事。希望通过吧。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉股权投票,马斯克550亿美金的股权激励。照理说以前股东会决定的事情应该给,这次怎么又投票,投票结果有用吗?就是论事,假设投票结果有用,对股价什么影响?一、给550亿股权,按照市值5000多亿,所有人市值稀释10%左右,短期股价跌。二、不给550亿股权,马斯克闹情绪,一言不合走人也是很可能,没有马斯克的特斯拉,就只剩下拉垮了,大跌。怎么看结果都不太好。给股权还好点,相当于一个大A一个跌停,当然能留下马斯克,应该又能回探。如果马斯克一门心思留下来,一个跌停那好像也都不是事。希望通过吧。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b9fdf2f19233f690e63a395616f998f","width":"793","height":"445"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309358127030416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3558472747654347","authorId":"3558472747654347","name":"Emilyslove","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/986d1cbda7270f2599757b2394af1c1c","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3558472747654347","authorIdStr":"3558472747654347"},"content":"就是这个理,所以不知道那些股东脑子是有包吗","text":"就是这个理,所以不知道那些股东脑子是有包吗","html":"就是这个理,所以不知道那些股东脑子是有包吗"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309138745839760,"gmtCreate":1716483397998,"gmtModify":1716483399326,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 半年内蔚来的市值会超过理想汽车,蔚来升,理想降。能直接买港股的朋友可以那这俩做对冲,两头都会赚。理想的情况,快的话半年内,慢的话一年内,跌破千亿港币市值。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 半年内蔚来的市值会超过理想汽车,蔚来升,理想降。能直接买港股的朋友可以那这俩做对冲,两头都会赚。理想的情况,快的话半年内,慢的话一年内,跌破千亿港币市值。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 半年内蔚来的市值会超过理想汽车,蔚来升,理想降。能直接买港股的朋友可以那这俩做对冲,两头都会赚。理想的情况,快的话半年内,慢的话一年内,跌破千亿港币市值。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309138745839760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"fincc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"content":"蔚来粉都是活在空气中","text":"蔚来粉都是活在空气中","html":"蔚来粉都是活在空气中"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":285672392761384,"gmtCreate":1710761786151,"gmtModify":1710761804493,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 目前大饼和矿股有个很大的背离,而这个背离会被修复-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital(MARA)$</a> 日线 vs 大饼(蓝线);目前Mara刚破支撑线-值得一提的另一点是:原先作为矿股在大饼上升趋势时涨幅会超过大饼本身,而同样在下降趋势时跌幅也更大,类似一个2倍做多的大饼;而这个情况也是在最近被打破了-看周线图2更清楚一点:大饼明显突破前高,mara如果到前高一半位置也有50块,而mara现在只有18块-而市场很聪明,如果你我都知道矿股应该涨,资金却不进场的理由,可能还是回到原先的那张图3:挖大饼的成本剧升,市场担心大饼本身的涨幅不能覆盖挖矿成本的上升,和之前讨论的,“挖”可能不如“囤”更有效;然后大饼需要持续上涨(更正之前讨论:Mara是盈利的,riot目前还亏损)-我自己也买了一点矿股,看后面情况了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 目前大饼和矿股有个很大的背离,而这个背离会被修复-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">$Marathon Digital(MARA)$</a> 日线 vs 大饼(蓝线);目前Mara刚破支撑线-值得一提的另一点是:原先作为矿股在大饼上升趋势时涨幅会超过大饼本身,而同样在下降趋势时跌幅也更大,类似一个2倍做多的大饼;而这个情况也是在最近被打破了-看周线图2更清楚一点:大饼明显突破前高,mara如果到前高一半位置也有50块,而mara现在只有18块-而市场很聪明,如果你我都知道矿股应该涨,资金却不进场的理由,可能还是回到原先的那张图3:挖大饼的成本剧升,市场担心大饼本身的涨幅不能覆盖挖矿成本的上升,和之前讨论的,“挖”可能不如“囤”更有效;然后大饼需要持续上涨(更正之前讨论:Mara是盈利的,riot目前还亏损)-我自己也买了一点矿股,看后面情况了","text":"$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ 目前大饼和矿股有个很大的背离,而这个背离会被修复-$Marathon Digital(MARA)$ 日线 vs 大饼(蓝线);目前Mara刚破支撑线-值得一提的另一点是:原先作为矿股在大饼上升趋势时涨幅会超过大饼本身,而同样在下降趋势时跌幅也更大,类似一个2倍做多的大饼;而这个情况也是在最近被打破了-看周线图2更清楚一点:大饼明显突破前高,mara如果到前高一半位置也有50块,而mara现在只有18块-而市场很聪明,如果你我都知道矿股应该涨,资金却不进场的理由,可能还是回到原先的那张图3:挖大饼的成本剧升,市场担心大饼本身的涨幅不能覆盖挖矿成本的上升,和之前讨论的,“挖”可能不如“囤”更有效;然后大饼需要持续上涨(更正之前讨论:Mara是盈利的,riot目前还亏损)-我自己也买了一点矿股,看后面情况了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37b45690f74c67432c8576dd41e15162","width":"2361","height":"1114"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285672392761384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3571072056025588","authorId":"3571072056025588","name":"我就是杨凡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/748d5f61067cb738d70d1304c2034cb0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571072056025588","authorIdStr":"3571072056025588"},"content":"看好MARA,它被严重低估","text":"看好MARA,它被严重低估","html":"看好MARA,它被严重低估"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291346768760872,"gmtCreate":1712151798842,"gmtModify":1712152459078,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 作为一个在北京有6年电车驾驶经验车主,说说自己对蔚来的理解吧。蔚来最大的短板应该还是续航吧。当前高端纯电卖的远不如增程的本质原因还是纯电有里程焦虑,除非家里多台车搞台纯电玩玩的,其它大部分用户没人愿意花40-60w买台车,但这台车确满足不了出行的基本需求,出个远门还得各种规划。说回蔚来,蔚来一直宣传的是通过换电彻底解决用户里程焦虑问题。这里有个前提: 大家续航里程差不多的时候,你说我能换电,这当然是明显的优势。但是别人都700km续航起了,你还500km的续航,这时换电也只能算作补续航短板了,算不上明显优势。在北京实际的电车使用经验是冬季 有效使用续航也就 标称续航*0.5-0.6 就是标称500km续航的车实际上开个250-300km就得去充电了。相对于蔚来换电这个系数就更低,换电只充到93%,230-280之间。这个实际使用续航实际上是解决不了用户里程焦虑的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 作为一个在北京有6年电车驾驶经验车主,说说自己对蔚来的理解吧。蔚来最大的短板应该还是续航吧。当前高端纯电卖的远不如增程的本质原因还是纯电有里程焦虑,除非家里多台车搞台纯电玩玩的,其它大部分用户没人愿意花40-60w买台车,但这台车确满足不了出行的基本需求,出个远门还得各种规划。说回蔚来,蔚来一直宣传的是通过换电彻底解决用户里程焦虑问题。这里有个前提: 大家续航里程差不多的时候,你说我能换电,这当然是明显的优势。但是别人都700km续航起了,你还500km的续航,这时换电也只能算作补续航短板了,算不上明显优势。在北京实际的电车使用经验是冬季 有效使用续航也就 标称续航*0.5-0.6 就是标称500km续航的车实际上开个250-300km就得去充电了。相对于蔚来换电这个系数就更低,换电只充到93%,230-280之间。这个实际使用续航实际上是解决不了用户里程焦虑的","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 作为一个在北京有6年电车驾驶经验车主,说说自己对蔚来的理解吧。蔚来最大的短板应该还是续航吧。当前高端纯电卖的远不如增程的本质原因还是纯电有里程焦虑,除非家里多台车搞台纯电玩玩的,其它大部分用户没人愿意花40-60w买台车,但这台车确满足不了出行的基本需求,出个远门还得各种规划。说回蔚来,蔚来一直宣传的是通过换电彻底解决用户里程焦虑问题。这里有个前提: 大家续航里程差不多的时候,你说我能换电,这当然是明显的优势。但是别人都700km续航起了,你还500km的续航,这时换电也只能算作补续航短板了,算不上明显优势。在北京实际的电车使用经验是冬季 有效使用续航也就 标称续航*0.5-0.6 就是标称500km续航的车实际上开个250-300km就得去充电了。相对于蔚来换电这个系数就更低,换电只充到93%,230-280之间。这个实际使用续航实际上是解决不了用户里程焦虑的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a6fb07349c42bbc49d14daee4b80b3","width":"500","height":"500"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/291346768760872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"227551038852195","authorId":"227551038852195","name":"长浦资本","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/145cb5075a93bae21d969f8831d4d94d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"227551038852195","authorIdStr":"227551038852195"},"content":"续航里程从来不是蔚来的问题,蔚来的问题是贵,奔驰保时捷的品牌力都不能在电动车领域有优势,别说一个消费者并不认可的新品牌了,好卖的电动车基本都是空间大+价格相对便宜的,蔚来有啥?","text":"续航里程从来不是蔚来的问题,蔚来的问题是贵,奔驰保时捷的品牌力都不能在电动车领域有优势,别说一个消费者并不认可的新品牌了,好卖的电动车基本都是空间大+价格相对便宜的,蔚来有啥?","html":"续航里程从来不是蔚来的问题,蔚来的问题是贵,奔驰保时捷的品牌力都不能在电动车领域有优势,别说一个消费者并不认可的新品牌了,好卖的电动车基本都是空间大+价格相对便宜的,蔚来有啥?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309358127030416,"gmtCreate":1716536957860,"gmtModify":1716565202408,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 特斯拉股权投票,马斯克550亿美金的股权激励。照理说以前股东会决定的事情应该给,这次怎么又投票,投票结果有用吗?就是论事,假设投票结果有用,对股价什么影响?一、给550亿股权,按照市值5000多亿,所有人市值稀释10%左右,短期股价跌。二、不给550亿股权,马斯克闹情绪,一言不合走人也是很可能,没有马斯克的特斯拉,就只剩下拉垮了,大跌。怎么看结果都不太好。给股权还好点,相当于一个大A一个跌停,当然能留下马斯克,应该又能回探。如果马斯克一门心思留下来,一个跌停那好像也都不是事。希望通过吧。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 特斯拉股权投票,马斯克550亿美金的股权激励。照理说以前股东会决定的事情应该给,这次怎么又投票,投票结果有用吗?就是论事,假设投票结果有用,对股价什么影响?一、给550亿股权,按照市值5000多亿,所有人市值稀释10%左右,短期股价跌。二、不给550亿股权,马斯克闹情绪,一言不合走人也是很可能,没有马斯克的特斯拉,就只剩下拉垮了,大跌。怎么看结果都不太好。给股权还好点,相当于一个大A一个跌停,当然能留下马斯克,应该又能回探。如果马斯克一门心思留下来,一个跌停那好像也都不是事。希望通过吧。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉股权投票,马斯克550亿美金的股权激励。照理说以前股东会决定的事情应该给,这次怎么又投票,投票结果有用吗?就是论事,假设投票结果有用,对股价什么影响?一、给550亿股权,按照市值5000多亿,所有人市值稀释10%左右,短期股价跌。二、不给550亿股权,马斯克闹情绪,一言不合走人也是很可能,没有马斯克的特斯拉,就只剩下拉垮了,大跌。怎么看结果都不太好。给股权还好点,相当于一个大A一个跌停,当然能留下马斯克,应该又能回探。如果马斯克一门心思留下来,一个跌停那好像也都不是事。希望通过吧。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b9fdf2f19233f690e63a395616f998f","width":"793","height":"445"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309358127030416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3558472747654347","authorId":"3558472747654347","name":"Emilyslove","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/986d1cbda7270f2599757b2394af1c1c","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3558472747654347","authorIdStr":"3558472747654347"},"content":"就是这个理,所以不知道那些股东脑子是有包吗","text":"就是这个理,所以不知道那些股东脑子是有包吗","html":"就是这个理,所以不知道那些股东脑子是有包吗"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":284637743132704,"gmtCreate":1710498601462,"gmtModify":1710507889468,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 英伟达年度人工智能大会将于3月18日至21日在美国加州圣何塞举行,市场对这家半导体巨头发布重磅消息以维持股价上涨态势寄予厚望。英伟达GTC大会已成为全球开发者瞩目的AI盛会,黄仁勋预计在开幕日发表演讲。黄仁勋通常会在GTC活动上发布新产品,阐述技术发展愿景。今年,他面临展示创新成果,复制H100数据中心芯片巨大成功,巩固公司在有利可图市场中领先地位的压力。点评:一般利好英伟达,经过这几天的调整,下周一但有点利好将有可能重回升势,仅个人观点,不作投资建议。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 英伟达年度人工智能大会将于3月18日至21日在美国加州圣何塞举行,市场对这家半导体巨头发布重磅消息以维持股价上涨态势寄予厚望。英伟达GTC大会已成为全球开发者瞩目的AI盛会,黄仁勋预计在开幕日发表演讲。黄仁勋通常会在GTC活动上发布新产品,阐述技术发展愿景。今年,他面临展示创新成果,复制H100数据中心芯片巨大成功,巩固公司在有利可图市场中领先地位的压力。点评:一般利好英伟达,经过这几天的调整,下周一但有点利好将有可能重回升势,仅个人观点,不作投资建议。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达年度人工智能大会将于3月18日至21日在美国加州圣何塞举行,市场对这家半导体巨头发布重磅消息以维持股价上涨态势寄予厚望。英伟达GTC大会已成为全球开发者瞩目的AI盛会,黄仁勋预计在开幕日发表演讲。黄仁勋通常会在GTC活动上发布新产品,阐述技术发展愿景。今年,他面临展示创新成果,复制H100数据中心芯片巨大成功,巩固公司在有利可图市场中领先地位的压力。点评:一般利好英伟达,经过这几天的调整,下周一但有点利好将有可能重回升势,仅个人观点,不作投资建议。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e52102f7cc085df615a376152f4aa4f2","width":"776","height":"759"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/284637743132704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010308","authorId":"10000000000010308","name":"点石成精2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e0b33ca1e2c701ffc48fb8eb32fb4c8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010308","authorIdStr":"10000000000010308"},"content":"你的内容不错,谢谢你的分享和点评!","text":"你的内容不错,谢谢你的分享和点评!","html":"你的内容不错,谢谢你的分享和点评!"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":282324127985760,"gmtCreate":1709952815876,"gmtModify":1709952819513,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 过去的这一周,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 的股价上涨了100美金,现在接近950,距离1000大关仅一步之遥。一直坚定看好英伟达,但说实话我也没想到多方力量会如此强大,几乎没有做什么调整就直奔1000。在即将突破1000的时刻,又一个问题摆在眼前,1000之后的英伟达会怎么走?我曾经回顾过英伟达在突破500元关口后,花了3个月的时间进行调整,之后才再次突破500;在上个月突破800大关后,英伟达调整了一周时间,就继续上攻;这次突破1000大关后,我认为会出现一个2周到1个月的调整期,之后股价会在1000元附近徘徊很长一段时间,短期内很难继续上涨之所以会有这样的判断,原因有两个:第一是英伟达在突破1000后,总市值将达到2.5万亿。这个市值已经拉开了除微软和苹果之外的所有公司,但以目前英伟达的业绩水平和持续盈利能力,还无法和苹果微软媲美,因此3万亿对英伟达还是一个短期内无法达到的目标,2.5万亿已经把这一轮的所有预期打满了。第二是从去年11月21日再次突破500之后,至今的3个多月时间股价始终处于高斜率增长状态,没有进行有效调整,这期间积累的盈利已经超过了100%,兑现需求迫切。整个半导体板块在英伟达的带领下也已经走出了过热的涨势,需要做一下调整以夯实股价。综合上述的判断,我会考虑在股价突破1000后兑现一半的英伟达,并根据市场情绪的演进情况决定是否继续兑现,如果股价突破1100我会全部兑现。当然这并不代表我不再看好英伟达,在短期内它仍是我最看好的股票,但好股票也要有好价格。也欢迎大家各抒己见,一起讨论英伟达后续的走势,以及今年对美股的投资思路。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 过去的这一周,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 的股价上涨了100美金,现在接近950,距离1000大关仅一步之遥。一直坚定看好英伟达,但说实话我也没想到多方力量会如此强大,几乎没有做什么调整就直奔1000。在即将突破1000的时刻,又一个问题摆在眼前,1000之后的英伟达会怎么走?我曾经回顾过英伟达在突破500元关口后,花了3个月的时间进行调整,之后才再次突破500;在上个月突破800大关后,英伟达调整了一周时间,就继续上攻;这次突破1000大关后,我认为会出现一个2周到1个月的调整期,之后股价会在1000元附近徘徊很长一段时间,短期内很难继续上涨之所以会有这样的判断,原因有两个:第一是英伟达在突破1000后,总市值将达到2.5万亿。这个市值已经拉开了除微软和苹果之外的所有公司,但以目前英伟达的业绩水平和持续盈利能力,还无法和苹果微软媲美,因此3万亿对英伟达还是一个短期内无法达到的目标,2.5万亿已经把这一轮的所有预期打满了。第二是从去年11月21日再次突破500之后,至今的3个多月时间股价始终处于高斜率增长状态,没有进行有效调整,这期间积累的盈利已经超过了100%,兑现需求迫切。整个半导体板块在英伟达的带领下也已经走出了过热的涨势,需要做一下调整以夯实股价。综合上述的判断,我会考虑在股价突破1000后兑现一半的英伟达,并根据市场情绪的演进情况决定是否继续兑现,如果股价突破1100我会全部兑现。当然这并不代表我不再看好英伟达,在短期内它仍是我最看好的股票,但好股票也要有好价格。也欢迎大家各抒己见,一起讨论英伟达后续的走势,以及今年对美股的投资思路。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 过去的这一周,$英伟达(NVDA)$ 的股价上涨了100美金,现在接近950,距离1000大关仅一步之遥。一直坚定看好英伟达,但说实话我也没想到多方力量会如此强大,几乎没有做什么调整就直奔1000。在即将突破1000的时刻,又一个问题摆在眼前,1000之后的英伟达会怎么走?我曾经回顾过英伟达在突破500元关口后,花了3个月的时间进行调整,之后才再次突破500;在上个月突破800大关后,英伟达调整了一周时间,就继续上攻;这次突破1000大关后,我认为会出现一个2周到1个月的调整期,之后股价会在1000元附近徘徊很长一段时间,短期内很难继续上涨之所以会有这样的判断,原因有两个:第一是英伟达在突破1000后,总市值将达到2.5万亿。这个市值已经拉开了除微软和苹果之外的所有公司,但以目前英伟达的业绩水平和持续盈利能力,还无法和苹果微软媲美,因此3万亿对英伟达还是一个短期内无法达到的目标,2.5万亿已经把这一轮的所有预期打满了。第二是从去年11月21日再次突破500之后,至今的3个多月时间股价始终处于高斜率增长状态,没有进行有效调整,这期间积累的盈利已经超过了100%,兑现需求迫切。整个半导体板块在英伟达的带领下也已经走出了过热的涨势,需要做一下调整以夯实股价。综合上述的判断,我会考虑在股价突破1000后兑现一半的英伟达,并根据市场情绪的演进情况决定是否继续兑现,如果股价突破1100我会全部兑现。当然这并不代表我不再看好英伟达,在短期内它仍是我最看好的股票,但好股票也要有好价格。也欢迎大家各抒己见,一起讨论英伟达后续的走势,以及今年对美股的投资思路。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0a01fdf8bf0fa79d9592919e81faa3c","width":"560","height":"240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282324127985760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309138745839760,"gmtCreate":1716483397998,"gmtModify":1716483399326,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 半年内蔚来的市值会超过理想汽车,蔚来升,理想降。能直接买港股的朋友可以那这俩做对冲,两头都会赚。理想的情况,快的话半年内,慢的话一年内,跌破千亿港币市值。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 半年内蔚来的市值会超过理想汽车,蔚来升,理想降。能直接买港股的朋友可以那这俩做对冲,两头都会赚。理想的情况,快的话半年内,慢的话一年内,跌破千亿港币市值。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 半年内蔚来的市值会超过理想汽车,蔚来升,理想降。能直接买港股的朋友可以那这俩做对冲,两头都会赚。理想的情况,快的话半年内,慢的话一年内,跌破千亿港币市值。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309138745839760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"fincc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"content":"蔚来粉都是活在空气中","text":"蔚来粉都是活在空气中","html":"蔚来粉都是活在空气中"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308652247240848,"gmtCreate":1716364623927,"gmtModify":1716366608569,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"title":"带崩整个港股?理想汽车还是向现实低头了","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 理想汽车披露一季度财报,营业收入256.3亿,同比+36.4%,净利润5.9亿,同比-36.3%。业绩不及市场预期,昨晚理想在美股暴跌12%,今天在港股暴跌19%,直接带崩了整车股,也带崩了港股。理想业绩低于预期的主要原因是纯电车型MEGA销量不及预期,导致费用率激增。理想2024年一季度研发费用达到30.5亿,同比+64.6%。一季度销售管理费用29.8亿,同比+81%。一季度费用超预期增长,主要就是把大量资源押注到首款纯电车型MEGA。制造业都会有类似的问题,在产品销售之前,需要投入资金研发产品,购买土地建设厂房,招聘生产人员,还得找上下游供应商备货。以上操作,都需要投入大量金钱。不管销量如何,砸出去的钱都不能退。销量好,就能覆盖成本。销量不好,利润就大幅下降甚至要亏损。之前李想也做了检讨,说是高估了纯电车型的销量,把纯电0到1的阶段,当成1到10的阶段了。其实通俗点说,就是跨步太大,扯着蛋了。再加上今年要应对汽车行业价格战,理想降价力度也在加大,算是被两头包夹了。虽然今年一季度业绩爆了个巨雷,但理想目前账上现金储备接近千亿,还是有充足弹药的,就看要花多少时间才能从坑里爬出来了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 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理想汽车披露一季度财报,营业收入256.3亿,同比+36.4%,净利润5.9亿,同比-36.3%。业绩不及市场预期,昨晚理想在美股暴跌12%,今天在港股暴跌19%,直接带崩了整车股,也带崩了港股。理想业绩低于预期的主要原因是纯电车型MEGA销量不及预期,导致费用率激增。理想2024年一季度研发费用达到30.5亿,同比+64.6%。一季度销售管理费用29.8亿,同比+81%。一季度费用超预期增长,主要就是把大量资源押注到首款纯电车型MEGA。制造业都会有类似的问题,在产品销售之前,需要投入资金研发产品,购买土地建设厂房,招聘生产人员,还得找上下游供应商备货。以上操作,都需要投入大量金钱。不管销量如何,砸出去的钱都不能退。销量好,就能覆盖成本。销量不好,利润就大幅下降甚至要亏损。之前李想也做了检讨,说是高估了纯电车型的销量,把纯电0到1的阶段,当成1到10的阶段了。其实通俗点说,就是跨步太大,扯着蛋了。再加上今年要应对汽车行业价格战,理想降价力度也在加大,算是被两头包夹了。虽然今年一季度业绩爆了个巨雷,但理想目前账上现金储备接近千亿,还是有充足弹药的,就看要花多少时间才能从坑里爬出来了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/992e98d43dbdb4de6d6329ade96d1fad","width":"878","height":"299"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308652247240848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309138646016024,"gmtCreate":1716483239347,"gmtModify":1716483243659,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 半年内蔚来的市值会超过理想汽车,蔚来升,理想降。能直接买港股的朋友可以那这俩做对冲,两头都会赚。理想的情况,快的话半年内,慢的话一年内,跌破千亿港币市值。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 半年内蔚来的市值会超过理想汽车,蔚来升,理想降。能直接买港股的朋友可以那这俩做对冲,两头都会赚。理想的情况,快的话半年内,慢的话一年内,跌破千亿港币市值。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 半年内蔚来的市值会超过理想汽车,蔚来升,理想降。能直接买港股的朋友可以那这俩做对冲,两头都会赚。理想的情况,快的话半年内,慢的话一年内,跌破千亿港币市值。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e28fdb46d3dcfcbf9a201fe4ce14f35d","width":"326","height":"480"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309138646016024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"fincc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"content":"理想就一款车遇到点问题,以mega的价格,销量也是超过蔚来同级别车,放在蔚来,都该大吹特吹了。理想却在反思、调整。蔚来还想超理想?先想好自己怎么活下去。","text":"理想就一款车遇到点问题,以mega的价格,销量也是超过蔚来同级别车,放在蔚来,都该大吹特吹了。理想却在反思、调整。蔚来还想超理想?先想好自己怎么活下去。","html":"理想就一款车遇到点问题,以mega的价格,销量也是超过蔚来同级别车,放在蔚来,都该大吹特吹了。理想却在反思、调整。蔚来还想超理想?先想好自己怎么活下去。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308267510554768,"gmtCreate":1716270694071,"gmtModify":1716270726399,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 只看价格,淘宝这一发诚意如何?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 只看价格,淘宝这一发诚意如何?","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 只看价格,淘宝这一发诚意如何?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d03ac0005888fa4e7376b820ee6671","width":"1684","height":"5712"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308267510554768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":290893267869736,"gmtCreate":1712041080851,"gmtModify":1712041095794,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 特斯拉中国上险17300🇨🇳🇨🇳创出本季度新高!应该是看完小米这么**,人们马上买特特导致销量爆增[得意]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 特斯拉中国上险17300🇨🇳🇨🇳创出本季度新高!应该是看完小米这么**,人们马上买特特导致销量爆增[得意]","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉中国上险17300🇨🇳🇨🇳创出本季度新高!应该是看完小米这么**,人们马上买特特导致销量爆增[得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f89ac685ebabac409d4819b3f6bfb2c6","width":"1561","height":"1611"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290893267869736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3553256311875125","authorId":"3553256311875125","name":"老当益壮铁树开花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe9bdf2e928a90ce7307de1ff8b30ff","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3553256311875125","authorIdStr":"3553256311875125"},"content":"去年 78500,今年68500,也才少了一万辆,也就下降了13%,下降的也不算多,可能4-5月份要下降更多","text":"去年 78500,今年68500,也才少了一万辆,也就下降了13%,下降的也不算多,可能4-5月份要下降更多","html":"去年 78500,今年68500,也才少了一万辆,也就下降了13%,下降的也不算多,可能4-5月份要下降更多"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":281429093843040,"gmtCreate":1709734301680,"gmtModify":1709734582152,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 昨天苹果跌破位了,我感受到了一些压力,因为peer pressure, 尤其隔壁AI和数字货币的板块涨幅喜人,而代表着设备端和未来虚拟世界入口的苹果被移除高盛的最佳买入名单。我回想起当我用vision pro的兴奋和看到未来的那个感觉,不会有假。但是哪里出了问题?重点还是虽然未来可期,但是当下苹果确实面临着旧的动能向新动能切换的时刻。包括最新统计苹果iPhone在中国的销量下滑25%,面对创新产品遭人诟病,ipad的新销量不足等眼下的情况。但是,我始终相信苹果是一家伟大的公司,为什么?就从它停止titan的造车举动来说,能够停止一个已经投入那么巨大的项目,而转向和自身设备更加融合度高的AI业务上,是艰难而有魄力的。能够实事求是,从实际出发,承认自己的位置从而转向,说来容易实则艰难,领头羊需要顶着巨大的董事会压力。可它还是做了,还是做了,还是做了。从对vision pro的拆解来看,设备端领先其他竞争者5-10年的水平,叠加苹果有自己的M系列芯片,多年累积的用户体验设计。遥想当年AirPods刚出来的时候,也是被市场诟病到爆炸,各种耳机容易掉,被什么磁石吸走了等等。再反观到现在,这种设备已经普及到了每个人。买的价格确实不是最低的,可能破位到更低,加仓应该缓缓加仓,抑制一下自己看到新未来的时候那种兴奋的心情,毕竟投资是一个决策对长远带来影响的过程。就像打高尔夫,距离越远,角度偏离一丢丢,球的偏离就会非常非常大,所以在击出球的那一刻,需要更加审慎。不仅要看愿景,也要自己分析一下当下的情况,面临的情景,来结合做决策。昨天把1.5倍苹果都清掉了,因为不知道多久才会反弹上来,但是已经持有的股票我会坚持持有,我相信苹果还是一家伟大的公","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 昨天苹果跌破位了,我感受到了一些压力,因为peer pressure, 尤其隔壁AI和数字货币的板块涨幅喜人,而代表着设备端和未来虚拟世界入口的苹果被移除高盛的最佳买入名单。我回想起当我用vision pro的兴奋和看到未来的那个感觉,不会有假。但是哪里出了问题?重点还是虽然未来可期,但是当下苹果确实面临着旧的动能向新动能切换的时刻。包括最新统计苹果iPhone在中国的销量下滑25%,面对创新产品遭人诟病,ipad的新销量不足等眼下的情况。但是,我始终相信苹果是一家伟大的公司,为什么?就从它停止titan的造车举动来说,能够停止一个已经投入那么巨大的项目,而转向和自身设备更加融合度高的AI业务上,是艰难而有魄力的。能够实事求是,从实际出发,承认自己的位置从而转向,说来容易实则艰难,领头羊需要顶着巨大的董事会压力。可它还是做了,还是做了,还是做了。从对vision pro的拆解来看,设备端领先其他竞争者5-10年的水平,叠加苹果有自己的M系列芯片,多年累积的用户体验设计。遥想当年AirPods刚出来的时候,也是被市场诟病到爆炸,各种耳机容易掉,被什么磁石吸走了等等。再反观到现在,这种设备已经普及到了每个人。买的价格确实不是最低的,可能破位到更低,加仓应该缓缓加仓,抑制一下自己看到新未来的时候那种兴奋的心情,毕竟投资是一个决策对长远带来影响的过程。就像打高尔夫,距离越远,角度偏离一丢丢,球的偏离就会非常非常大,所以在击出球的那一刻,需要更加审慎。不仅要看愿景,也要自己分析一下当下的情况,面临的情景,来结合做决策。昨天把1.5倍苹果都清掉了,因为不知道多久才会反弹上来,但是已经持有的股票我会坚持持有,我相信苹果还是一家伟大的公","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 昨天苹果跌破位了,我感受到了一些压力,因为peer pressure, 尤其隔壁AI和数字货币的板块涨幅喜人,而代表着设备端和未来虚拟世界入口的苹果被移除高盛的最佳买入名单。我回想起当我用vision pro的兴奋和看到未来的那个感觉,不会有假。但是哪里出了问题?重点还是虽然未来可期,但是当下苹果确实面临着旧的动能向新动能切换的时刻。包括最新统计苹果iPhone在中国的销量下滑25%,面对创新产品遭人诟病,ipad的新销量不足等眼下的情况。但是,我始终相信苹果是一家伟大的公司,为什么?就从它停止titan的造车举动来说,能够停止一个已经投入那么巨大的项目,而转向和自身设备更加融合度高的AI业务上,是艰难而有魄力的。能够实事求是,从实际出发,承认自己的位置从而转向,说来容易实则艰难,领头羊需要顶着巨大的董事会压力。可它还是做了,还是做了,还是做了。从对vision 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这货之所以最近表现不好,就是因为这里压力太高了同时还有周线压力,一旦突破,就是轻舟。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/837943c261b392c4caf15efd06fc5498","width":"2805","height":"1295"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311570459164720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296301213945904,"gmtCreate":1713358494215,"gmtModify":1713361961625,"author":{"id":"9000000000000333","authorId":"9000000000000333","name":"埃森豪威尔的持仓","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9401882db3a1ae5384d55414d14ebcff","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000333","authorIdStr":"9000000000000333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 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