I received an email from a concerned reader who wrote to me about a week ago.We have exchanged a few email correspondences and I have obtained his permission to publish this on an article without mentioning his real name.Here is the unedited question he wrote.Hi BI have been an avid reader of yours for many years and I have learnt many valuable lessons along the way.I am in a rather difficult situation at the moment and unsure of what I should do next so I hope you can give me some advice.I started investing in the stock market about 3 years ago back in 2018.I had started investing in overseas stocks mainly in Chinese tech stocks sometime late last year and I have further added to my position earlier this year upon reading your thesis about Alibaba, Tencent, JD and Ping An. My positions co
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Baba - Inverse H&S Pattern - Immediate Term Target $200
$Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ As most readers already know, Alibaba remained my largest position to date in the portfolio with over 30% weightage.Over the past couple of months, I’ve gone through many articles on my positions for Chinese tech companies so I’ll go through a quick one this time of what I am seeing in the Baba’s chart.Do note that Baba is expected to announce an earning results next week on the 18th November, so I’ll be taking a close look of their development fundamentally.For this article, I’ll be doing a technical analysis to see what might be in store over the next couple of weeks and months and how I derived at my potential short term target of $200&nb
What is Baba's Intrinsic Value - With Valuation Model
Following my previous post which talked about the quick analysis on $Alibaba(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ and JD after both announced their earnings last night, I will go a little more in depth about each company’s valuation and see how much should we change with our valuation model.We will start first with Baba, and then I’ll do another one in the next post with JD.The goal here is to look at it objectively (rather than from a biased point of view because of vested position), so I’ll flex my objective thoughts and if you agree or disagree you are more than welcome to let me know your thoughts in the comment sections below (though please provide your reasoning so we can have a meanin
What is Baba's Intrinsic Value - With Valuation Model
Thank You Tesla and Uncle Elon For The Volatility
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla had an incredible week after the company hits $1T on Monday when the share price burst through the $1000 milestone and then continues to be a hit on mainstream media which means we are going to continue having a great high volatility Tuesday.True enough, the share price rose by as much as 8% on Tuesday before retracing back to close lower with a red doji candle.We knew that Tuesday's candle was going to be lower than Monday so I went on to write a lot of puts at what I thought was a relatively safe strike price of $1400-$1500 when the share price was hovering at +7-8% on Tuesday. This was going to be a buffet night and free money on the table after all.I was expecting volatility to die down midway through th
Thank You Tesla and Uncle Elon For The Volatility
Why Using Monthly Active Users (MAU) Alone Can Be Deceptive
Keeping a close tab on your company’s unit economics is one of the most important task for management and the board as it tells a lot of story on how the company is performing over time.Today, we’ll be focusing on one of the most commonly over-used and over-reported metrics by many companies – Monthly Active Users (MAU) / Daily Active Users (DAU).How The Significance of MAU/DAU Came About:MAU (or some may track on the daily DAU) became increasingly popular largely when companies such as Twitter and Facebook started tracking and reporting engagement rates and growth projections. These businesses are social media networks which rely on social media engagement and activities, which includes advertising to make money so it makes sense for these companies to track the monthly or daily
Why Using Monthly Active Users (MAU) Alone Can Be Deceptive
KeppelDC REIT Has Been Correcting - Potential $2.15 Coming?
$KEPPEL DC REIT(AJBU.SI)$ has been one of the performing stars in the SREIT universe for quite some time since its’ IPO.Investors who are looking to buy this REIT has been given very little to no chance to add on to their shares as the company continues to shoulder on its meteoric rise in the past few years.Since hitting the peak of $3.13 sometime in October last year, the company has undergone quite a bit of correction over the past few months, breaking it’s support each time as it moves lower.With the company trading at $2.34 today, is this a good opportunity to add on to the shares given their longer term prospect?Maiden Acquisition in China with a high 9% NPI Yield:The maiden acquisition in Guangdong Data Centre locat
KeppelDC REIT Has Been Correcting - Potential $2.15 Coming?
Carnival - Where Are We Cruising Next?
On the 18th October, I alerted the members in my Facebook group some technical charts for Carnival Inc. $Carnival(CCL)$ The price action is trading within the symmetrical triangle since COVID started back in early 2020 and hasn't been able to break in or out of that triangle since. Nevertheless, we are approaching that breakout (up or down) soon and may be able to know soon enough.I went on to dig a few more information soon after that, in preparation for due diligence on its fundamental side.I didn't quite like what I see based on the information I dig out so I'm likely to sit this one out for anything long term. This is at best a trading play on the sentiments if I just want to get my hands dip in a little for fun purpose.Nevertheles
Carnival - Where Are We Cruising Next?
5 Reasons Why You Should Be Accumulating on Tencent
$TENCENT(00700)$ If you are following my social media page, you are probably already aware that I am in the midst of accumulating more Tencent shares in the past recent weeks (I am done accumulating my position for Baba and has now moved to Tencent with the intent to build a position larger). I added another 100 shares on Friday at about $438.8 and with this I have a total of 1,400 shares at an average price of $458.4. At the moment, my position is currently down at about ~4% but this does not concern me at all. In fact, I hope it can maintain at this range for a while more so it will allow me time to build up my capital over time to add more positions into the portfolio (will detail out the essence of building more
5 Reasons Why You Should Be Accumulating on Tencent
Why Did Nike (NYSE: NKE) Drop By 6% Last Friday?
Shares of Nike Inc. $Nike(NKE)$dropped by more than 6% last Friday after the company announced earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 that disappointed investors. The company cited supply chain disruptions which include temporary forced closures of its manufacturing facilities in Vietnam and Indonesia – both countries that are still facing battle of the Covid-19 pandemic. First quarter earning is not all bad and gloom. The company reported sales of $12.2 billion and an underlying EPS of $1.16, which is just under the market estimates of between $12.4 billion and $12.6 billion. The company managed it’s profit margin better in the first quarter due to less incentives given to customers due to higher than expected d
Why Did Nike (NYSE: NKE) Drop By 6% Last Friday?
The Importance of Patience & Focusing on the Business Metric
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon has one of the most impressive compounder chart history in many years.After accounting for three rounds of stock splits in more than 2 decades, the stock has advanced from $1.50 back in 1997 to $3400 today in 2021. That is a whooping return of more than 200,000% return in a period of slightly more than 2 decades.Based on the above charts, you would have thought it would be an easy ride to ride the uptrend across the full 2 decades to where you are today.A $1,000 investment back in 1997 would have returned you about $2m today, after accounting for all the stock splits that happened along the way.However, if you look at each milestone and the struggles it came across on each economic cycle, you would realise th
The Importance of Patience & Focusing on the Business Metric
Short Netflix Ahead of Its Upcoming Q4 Earnings
$Netflix(NFLX)$ Much was anticipated in the opening week of the New Year as Mr Market rotated out of most growth tech stocks, especially those with lofty valuations and switched in on companies which might benefit from the rising interest rate environment (i.e banks, oil).I took an opportunity to take a short position on Netflix last week which I have been quite bearish on since it announced the Q3 earnings a few months ago which I wrote here.Here are a few of the reasons why I am expecting Netflix to underperform in the next upcoming months:1.) Lofty Valuation Is Vulnerable In Current Inflationary EnvironmentWhichever we want to look at it, Netflix’s valuation is not cheap by any standard metrics for valuing a company.It’s more tradi
Short Netflix Ahead of Its Upcoming Q4 Earnings
Short SEA Ltd (Short Term Target: $120; Mid Term $100)
$Sea Ltd(SE)$ Market is in an unforgiving mode this year after we’ve seen a battered meltdown in many growth technology and e-commerce stocks. While most of these companies are still in positive territory after their strong run-up during Covid, many of them are starting to give up their gains in the past couple of months. The past couple of weeks we have seen a few notable companies with the likes of Netflix, Meta, Paypal and Shopify taking a beat from the market after earnings. With earnings still to come from many of the other companies, we could very much see a repeat of the same. This article is about SEA Ltd and in this article I will explain why am I not a buyer at the moment despite the shares already crashing more than 60% to
Short SEA Ltd (Short Term Target: $120; Mid Term $100)
Oct 2021 – Portfolio & Transaction Updates
Another round of quick portfolio updates for the month of October as we head towards the last quarter of the year.What a transition month it has been for stocks from September to October.Although it may look like most of these stocks were flat month on month, there were many developments that happened across the month which sent some of the stocks like Baba and Ping An to its new 52 weeks low.Using this as an opportunity, I added a couple more positions in $Alibaba(BABA)$ , $PING AN(02318)$ and $ISHARESHSTECH(03067)$ to average down on my positions. Ping an had also gone for ex-dividend, so I am expecting the di
Oct 2021 – Portfolio & Transaction Updates
China Crisis Capitulation 2021
If last Black Friday week was dismal, yesterday price action was plainly brutal.It’s been a while since we last seen so much fear striking the market all at the same time and I have to capture this as a memento to future visitors trying to revisit this crisis a few years from today.The delisting news for Didi from the NYSE barely a few months after its public listing sent spiral waves throughout the entire market, sending most Chinese stocks listed in the US market down by an average 9-10%.Didi shares itself plunged 22% after an initial pre market up and I think it caused a lot of confusion to the market without clarity of what is going to happen to their shares should they held on to it.The Krane Shares CSI China Internet ETF ($KraneShar
China Crisis Capitulation 2021
PayPal Holdings Inc – Will We See $75 Next?
The plethora of earnings keep coming and this week, we will be taking a quick look at Paypal Holdings Inc [Nasdaq: $PayPal(PYPL)$ ] which will be reporting on the 27th April on Wednesday after market close.The share price looks like it will break the last low set on the daily chart while it is keeping its important support on the weekly chart. If this support breaks, we are likely to see $75 coming next and this might come as soon as earnings this Wednesday should it disappoints.Let’s take a look what might be in store for this week’s earnings preview.Q1 Earnings Preview:All eyes will be on its Q1 earnings after management sets a weak trajectory growth for Q1 back during earnings last quarter when it guided for a weak negati
PayPal Holdings Inc – Will We See $75 Next?
Reader: I Cut Loss On Chinese Stocks and Now Moving to US
Reader: I Cut Loss On Chinese Stocks and Now Moving to US
Manulife REIT - Importance On ESG and DeCarbonization
Just as the likes of e-commerce and cloud computing gaining traction in the structural growth opportunities, decarbonization has similar attributes that allow it to fall under the same category.I attended the ESG Sustainability seminar conducted by $MANULIFE US REIT(BTOU.SI)$ ("MUST") yesterday.It was an eye opening experience because of the limited knowledge I have on this topic yet it is one of the most pressing items we have in this world that is very much under-appreciated by investors.The world has known of climate change for quite a while now and as the world begins to see severe weather and temperature changes more rapidly for the past few years, it is now becoming a high priority pressing agenda which the G20 nation countri
Manulife REIT - Importance On ESG and DeCarbonization
3Fs Portfolio Review – 2021
I will be doing a slightly early version of the portfolio review for the entire of 2021 since today is a public holiday and I’ve got to go back to the office starting tomorrow to catch up on some end year work.There is still a few days left this week to the end of the week but I am likely to take no further positions other than a few options I have left outstanding which will expire by the end of this week.Portfolio Review and Thoughts:I started the year with about 23% of HK/China weightage holdings and ended the year with about 97% of my entire portfolio in either HK/China stocks. If you include the leverage portion, it’s probably closer to 130%.This is a year where the China regulatory impact takes headline and impacted over many Chinese stocks. I was originally not too interested in man
3Fs Portfolio Review – 2021
$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$Starting to show weakness in price action last Friday. Some trade ideas to consider:Since last Friday when it closed with a doji candle and retrace before hitting the peak, it has never tested the peak again this week so far. In fact, Tuesday candle showed sign of further retracement weakness short term.Trade ideas: Sell put at strike of $330 for a premium of $1.55 (likely even juicier tonight when market opens), giving an unlevered yield of 0.46% for a period of 3 days. The Ema20 daily support at $330 should hold this week.Sell call at strike of $405 for a premium of $2.25, giving an unlevered yield of 0.56% for a period of 3 days. Given that it has so far not tested the previous peak, likely to clear in the m
$SE 20211112 320.0 PUT(SE)$SEA Ltd put options at strike $320 has one of the best risk reward play for the options expiring tomorrow.Weekly support EMA20 has been respected a couple of times in the past and the company is onlygoing to announce results next week, which puts everything clears on the stand with no surprise news on the cards at least until tomorrow due to blackout dates.
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