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美易添科技
2020-08-20
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
此股被严重高估了,泡沫非常大,一家主要靠卖硬件汽车的公司市值居然达到了阿里巴巴的三分之二,毛利率才17%,1000亿美金都不值!!!
美易添科技
2021-03-29
$知乎(ZH)$
知乎连自己破发的现实都不敢面对,妥妥的鸵鸟心态。
美易添科技
2019-11-07
$蔚来(NIO)$
亦庄国投的100亿基本确定是黄了,没有钱的蔚来还有未来吗?
美易添科技
2020-09-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
市盈率1010倍,我的个天,这泡沫......
美易添科技
2020-03-26
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
瑞幸是一只好股票,符合即将到来的数字化浪潮!在线化、智能化程度的确甩了星巴克几条街!
美易添科技
2019-11-06
$青客(QK)$
青客坑的一逼啊!用户体验非常差!我之前被他们看房人员套路交了定金,去看了一下没有租直接扣了500,剩下的半个月才到!房间辣鸡的要死!
美易添科技
2020-08-21
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
别人贪婪我恐惧!!!
美易添科技
2022-05-11
$每日优鲜(MF)$
特么跌到市值7000万,连A轮融资额都不够
美易添科技
2021-04-28
$逸仙电商(YSG)$
这股的机构解禁期快到了,现在是拉升待出货阶段了
美易添科技
2020-04-07
$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$
这是什么鬼股票,才上市多久?就一点交易量都没有[开心]
美易添科技
2021-04-26
$美团-W(03690)$
靠明天暴跌
美易添科技
2020-03-25
$房多多(DUO)$
成交额1.87万涨13%多,这尼玛什么鬼,自己买着玩的吗?
美易添科技
2022-03-19
$知乎(ZH)$
嘿嘿
美易添科技
2021-06-26
$每日优鲜(MF)$
要破发了吗?
美易添科技
2022-03-05
$怪兽充电(EM)$
特么的全是水军发帖,这么明显都把人当傻子吗?
美易添科技
2019-11-21
$趣店(QD)$
市盈率不足三倍,足够说明了趣店的营收极不稳定,受政策影响非常大!资本市场不看好其能长期盈利!
美易添科技
12-10
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
起飞
美易添科技
11-09
$小米集团-W(01810)$
美易添科技
2021-10-08
这真轻松啊,小编
抱歉,原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">$逸仙电商(YSG)$</a>马上要解禁了,机构开始拉升准备跑路了","text":"$逸仙电商(YSG)$马上要解禁了,机构开始拉升准备跑路了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372111705","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354199451,"gmtCreate":1617149735973,"gmtModify":1617149735973,"author":{"id":"3521638279113867","authorId":"3521638279113867","name":"美易添科技","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d386fe5e62c4fa3844ec8484954ab1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521638279113867","authorIdStr":"3521638279113867"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"其它社区可不会依自己的喜好随便删帖禁言封号!!!垃圾知乎……","listText":"其它社区可不会依自己的喜好随便删帖禁言封号!!!垃圾知乎……","text":"其它社区可不会依自己的喜好随便删帖禁言封号!!!垃圾知乎……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354199451","repostId":"2123239880","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2123239880","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617016089,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2123239880?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-29 19:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"上市知乎,别想那只大象","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2123239880","media":"钛媒体","summary":"过去的这个周末,因为知乎上市这件事,财经科技媒体圈“热闹非凡”。似乎在他们的眼里,知乎不是在纽交所上市,更像是公司遇到了“黑天鹅”。\n深究起来,财经媒体们可比周源焦虑多了,有标题写大跌10%,这是文艺","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f62c4218be37c58a3880e87c2ecb43af\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"717\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>过去的这个周末,因为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>上市这件事,财经科技媒体圈“热闹非凡”。似乎在他们的眼里,知乎不是在纽交所上市,更像是公司遇到了“黑天鹅”。</p>\n<p>深究起来,财经媒体们可比周源焦虑多了,有标题写大跌10%,这是文艺青年周源遇见了商业天花板。还有人上价值,说知乎上市背后,其实是中国互联网社区25年血泪史。总之不管怎么样,社区的长期主义在股价面前一定是脆弱到不值一提的。</p>\n<p>但情况真是这样吗?可能并不。</p>\n<p>知乎的未来是什么样,取决于现在的每一步,但也和过去的积累息息相关,而上市这个动作所引发的舆论震颤,正如周源所言,不过是一个「阶段性的重要时刻」。</p>\n<h2>01</h2>\n<h2>中国社区的生存法则</h2>\n<p>在上市演讲上,周源聊到了知乎用户们曾讨论的一个问题:知乎要上市了,你有什么想对它说的?</p>\n<p>作为知乎的精神股东之一,我觉得此刻我确实可以说点什么。</p>\n<p>就从知乎被讨论的最多的地方开始聊起吧。</p>\n<p>知乎一直被诟病没有合适的变现模式,甚至被攻击整个团队做商业化不行,包括上市后,这也是每一家财经科技媒体必要聊的part。</p>\n<p>说多了,就跟知乎真的不行一样,但其实同样的问题,两年前他们安在B站上,7年前他们用在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>上,其他还有快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、小红书们,似乎只要和社区沾边的产品,商业化都不怎么行,最后聊来聊去,这成了一个永恒的难题。</p>\n<p>发现没?现如今谈社区的商业化问题很容易谈成左右手互博,甚至一不小心还会上升至电车难题这样的伦理高度,但其实真没必要,社区产品自有社区产品的使命,商业化固然是重头戏,但内容才是一个社区安身立命之本。</p>\n<p>更何况,知乎的内容商业化也并没有那么差,电子书和值乎版块一直做得不错,就连并不被看好的广告,招股书上也显示获得了全年46%的增长,这一表现即使和整个广告市场大盘比起来,也不显得逊色。</p>\n<p>那么,围观者们在不满意什么呢?我想,这可能并不是纯粹的产品问题,也不全来自于内容社区的发展困境,在这个被Feeds、push、小红点等塑造的湍急的信息急流里,用户被包裹其中,裹挟着向前而去,以至于失去了全知视角,而习惯和盲从那些看上去对的声音。</p>\n<p>认知学家乔治·莱考夫曾经举过一个例子,如果别人对你说「别想大象」,那你就会不由自主地想到大象。而且,你越是告诉自己不去想大象,就越控制不住地想到任何和大象相关的事物。</p>\n<p>对于当下的内容社区来说,商业化就是那头大象,处于扩张期的产品,任何异动都是在为商业化做准备,产品功能更迭是为商业化,运营活动设计是为商业化,甚至CEO对外发言、接受采访都是在为商业化做铺垫。</p>\n<p>久而久之,一切产品问题、内容问题,都可以往商业化步子大了这个论调上靠。而在最近,强调互联网社区商业化不行,差不多成了政治正确,人们也总是习惯把内容社区和电商这种直接面向交易的行业做对比,但事实上,谁听谁被忽悠瘸。</p>\n<p>知乎现阶段正到了被人扯着耳朵喊大象的时刻,商业化被外界妖魔化成为达摩克里斯之剑,但其实剖开来看,知乎的平衡术已经排在互联网社区前列了。</p>\n<p>所以,对当下的知乎,我只想强调一点,既然选择做内容社区,那就别一直想那只大象。</p>\n<h2>02</h2>\n<h2>知乎的圆点</h2>\n<p>回到上市演讲。</p>\n<p>在上市演讲上,周源聊的不多,开篇有点感性,但到结尾时,朴实、谨慎,又有那么一点谦虚。</p>\n<p>尤其在最后定义知乎时,周源用了一个短句「服务创作者」。</p>\n<p>整句话是这样的:知乎将锚定服务创作者这个圆点,向内优化服务,向外拓展突围。</p>\n<p>联系上下文语境的话,可能会对此有更深的感知,知乎十年上市,终于到了一边面对创作者与用户需求,一边接受资本市场检阅的时候。</p>\n<p>这对知乎来说无疑是一个新的历史起点,但对用户来说,改变并不明显,至少在此刻,在当下,是没有什么大的涟漪的,甚至比起股价跌宕,知乎用户们更关心哥斯拉和金刚谁更厉害,以及苏伊士运河堵船事故如何才能最大程度减少损失。</p>\n<p>这看似有点无情,但恰恰符合知乎一贯的传统,我当然更关心与我利益相关的问题,毕竟知乎上市那100股也只发给知乎大V,而作为普通用户,我的问题能得到回答,我的好奇心可以被满足,这就够了。</p>\n<p>所以,从这个角度出发,那些拿知乎上市佐证中国互联网内容社区之路艰难的论断,差不多可以消停了,只要有人发问,知乎就有生存空间,而有生存空间,短期的冲突就不会让人长久焦虑。</p>\n<p>并且,问答社区与一般的内容社区不同,从用户关系建立、延展,到用户关系的突破与稳定,这一系列动作间,有一个流畅的路径。</p>\n<p>举个例子,如果说B站、小红书等产品是话题作文,那么知乎这种问答社区就是命题作文,前者是主题制度,用户要自己筛选内容进而发布,但知乎的标题是限定的,背景也是限定的,这就同时解决了内容生产和内容消费的问题。在内容生产中,由用户先行提问,知乎答主再根据命题写回答、生产内容,当获得越多的赞同后,知乎答主就会越加积极地生产内容。</p>\n<p>而且更有意思的一点是,内容创作者在其他社区可能会因为对创作选题的误判,而丧失自然流量,但在知乎,有能力的、且认真回答问题的宝藏答主,基本是不会被淹没的,问进制下,好回答会和好问题一起,共同走向高赞。</p>\n<p>之前我们就曾提到过,知乎内容平均流通时长可以达到8个月,问题的平均流通时间是18个月,其中,优质的内容会在流通时间内被反复激活,长尾内容则会持续流通。</p>\n<p>所以,哪怕像我这样的非大V答主,也会因为单个高赞问题,而持续不断地获得曝光。</p>\n<p>本质上,问答社区的精髓在于一种情报和帮助,它能够解决提问者非常具象化的问题。而且,越是具体、深度的问答,价值就越高,往更纵深处看的话,问题社区的终局可能并不仅仅是走向知识付费,而是成为虚拟空间里的图书馆,数字版的十万个为什么。</p>\n<p>沿着这个角度出发,就可以理解周源在上市演讲中,为什么把「服务创作者」定位为知乎的圆点。</p>\n<p>因为只有这样,知乎才不会因为社区产品的自然老化而走向衰落,而是能始终保持活力,哪怕做不到时刻占据用户的日活,也能稳定住月活。</p>\n<h2>03</h2>\n<h2>从0到1再到IPO</h2>\n<p>在知乎十周年的演讲中,周源曾表示:「处于高速发展期的互联网企业,容易出现‘三化’风险——对环境感知的钝化、企业机体的老化和创新能力的弱化。但面对问题,应该做的不是解释,只有解决。」</p>\n<p>说出这段话的周源,其实很不像媒体描述中的文艺青年和理想主义者,程序员的极客思维依然存在于他身上。</p>\n<p>这种理念与极客吧的slogan一样有意思,所谓「开源精神永不死,没有信息就没有未来」,放到内容社区身上亦是如此。</p>\n<p>其实在很多年前,周源就强调过「社区是特殊的数字化产品,有自己的生长节奏」,这也是知乎能区别于得到一类的知识付费产品的理由。相比之下,周源并不像一个纯粹的创业者,严格来说,他更像一个媒体属性的技术工作者,和一个有点理想主义的内容创作者。</p>\n<p>我还记得他曾经写过的一篇回答,主题是科技与社会,讨论的核心是,科学技术和科技公司的发展,与社会产生了哪些矛盾?以及未来将如何解决?</p>\n<p>这篇回答,重点分享了他对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>系统的看法,在他看来,「精准的推荐导致我们只能看到特定的话题,很难跳出这个信息圈,造成回音桶效应」。</p>\n<p>包括他最后给出的结尾,也十分地符合一个做过记者的程序员应有的气质:「不要沉溺于短暂的快乐,而成为一只只触碰电极至死的老鼠。」</p>\n<p>透过他的回答与这么多年的分享,我们或多或少也能窥见周源对知乎边界的定位。对比其他平台,比如快手、B站,赚的每一分钱都是用户价值的货币化,但知乎不是,它也不能是,知识社区如果靠打情怀牌盈利,靠强调情感链接来留住用户,那和贩卖心灵鸡汤也没什么区别了。</p>\n<p>虽然投资人们一再强调互联网公司没有中间状态,但投内容社区的投资人,很大概率都不这么想。就拿知乎来说,这艘船之所以在十年前被投资人看好,也从来不是因为能煽动用户。</p>\n<p>创新工场管理合伙人汪华,在知乎上市之际,聊起过给知乎投资的原因,他说:「当时的互联网市场环境百家争鸣,各种游戏的娱乐社区特别火但生长特别野蛮,我们评估这样的环境下做一个沉淀优质内容的平台有风险,但我和开复都觉得周源很有心来做这个事情,也很符合我们的机构气质,所以很快决定投资天使轮,后来连续投了4轮。」</p>\n<p>言下之意,过去的故事,是知乎从0到1再到IPO,未来的故事,并不一定要强迫知乎改变自己的模式,事实上,中国的内容社区可以走出中国的特色。</p>\n<p>这一点,很像是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>超越NicoNico。N站几乎还是那个N站,而B站已经变成了集社区、NicoNico和YouTube所长的富媒体产品。</p>\n<p>相应地,Quora在美国差不多还是那个Quora,而知乎,则成为了CIC调查中所描述的「中国最大的问答式在线社区」与「中国前五大综合在线内容社区」。</p>","source":"taimeiti","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n上市知乎,别想那只大象\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-29 19:08 北京时间 <a href=https://www.tmtpost.com/5134971.html><strong>钛媒体</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去的这个周末,因为知乎上市这件事,财经科技媒体圈“热闹非凡”。似乎在他们的眼里,知乎不是在纽交所上市,更像是公司遇到了“黑天鹅”。\n深究起来,财经媒体们可比周源焦虑多了,有标题写大跌10%,这是文艺青年周源遇见了商业天花板。还有人上价值,说知乎上市背后,其实是中国互联网社区25年血泪史。总之不管怎么样,社区的长期主义在股价面前一定是脆弱到不值一提的。\n但情况真是这样吗?可能并不。\n知乎的未来是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tmtpost.com/5134971.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f62c4218be37c58a3880e87c2ecb43af","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎"},"source_url":"https://www.tmtpost.com/5134971.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2123239880","content_text":"过去的这个周末,因为知乎上市这件事,财经科技媒体圈“热闹非凡”。似乎在他们的眼里,知乎不是在纽交所上市,更像是公司遇到了“黑天鹅”。\n深究起来,财经媒体们可比周源焦虑多了,有标题写大跌10%,这是文艺青年周源遇见了商业天花板。还有人上价值,说知乎上市背后,其实是中国互联网社区25年血泪史。总之不管怎么样,社区的长期主义在股价面前一定是脆弱到不值一提的。\n但情况真是这样吗?可能并不。\n知乎的未来是什么样,取决于现在的每一步,但也和过去的积累息息相关,而上市这个动作所引发的舆论震颤,正如周源所言,不过是一个「阶段性的重要时刻」。\n01\n中国社区的生存法则\n在上市演讲上,周源聊到了知乎用户们曾讨论的一个问题:知乎要上市了,你有什么想对它说的?\n作为知乎的精神股东之一,我觉得此刻我确实可以说点什么。\n就从知乎被讨论的最多的地方开始聊起吧。\n知乎一直被诟病没有合适的变现模式,甚至被攻击整个团队做商业化不行,包括上市后,这也是每一家财经科技媒体必要聊的part。\n说多了,就跟知乎真的不行一样,但其实同样的问题,两年前他们安在B站上,7年前他们用在微博上,其他还有快手、抖音、小红书们,似乎只要和社区沾边的产品,商业化都不怎么行,最后聊来聊去,这成了一个永恒的难题。\n发现没?现如今谈社区的商业化问题很容易谈成左右手互博,甚至一不小心还会上升至电车难题这样的伦理高度,但其实真没必要,社区产品自有社区产品的使命,商业化固然是重头戏,但内容才是一个社区安身立命之本。\n更何况,知乎的内容商业化也并没有那么差,电子书和值乎版块一直做得不错,就连并不被看好的广告,招股书上也显示获得了全年46%的增长,这一表现即使和整个广告市场大盘比起来,也不显得逊色。\n那么,围观者们在不满意什么呢?我想,这可能并不是纯粹的产品问题,也不全来自于内容社区的发展困境,在这个被Feeds、push、小红点等塑造的湍急的信息急流里,用户被包裹其中,裹挟着向前而去,以至于失去了全知视角,而习惯和盲从那些看上去对的声音。\n认知学家乔治·莱考夫曾经举过一个例子,如果别人对你说「别想大象」,那你就会不由自主地想到大象。而且,你越是告诉自己不去想大象,就越控制不住地想到任何和大象相关的事物。\n对于当下的内容社区来说,商业化就是那头大象,处于扩张期的产品,任何异动都是在为商业化做准备,产品功能更迭是为商业化,运营活动设计是为商业化,甚至CEO对外发言、接受采访都是在为商业化做铺垫。\n久而久之,一切产品问题、内容问题,都可以往商业化步子大了这个论调上靠。而在最近,强调互联网社区商业化不行,差不多成了政治正确,人们也总是习惯把内容社区和电商这种直接面向交易的行业做对比,但事实上,谁听谁被忽悠瘸。\n知乎现阶段正到了被人扯着耳朵喊大象的时刻,商业化被外界妖魔化成为达摩克里斯之剑,但其实剖开来看,知乎的平衡术已经排在互联网社区前列了。\n所以,对当下的知乎,我只想强调一点,既然选择做内容社区,那就别一直想那只大象。\n02\n知乎的圆点\n回到上市演讲。\n在上市演讲上,周源聊的不多,开篇有点感性,但到结尾时,朴实、谨慎,又有那么一点谦虚。\n尤其在最后定义知乎时,周源用了一个短句「服务创作者」。\n整句话是这样的:知乎将锚定服务创作者这个圆点,向内优化服务,向外拓展突围。\n联系上下文语境的话,可能会对此有更深的感知,知乎十年上市,终于到了一边面对创作者与用户需求,一边接受资本市场检阅的时候。\n这对知乎来说无疑是一个新的历史起点,但对用户来说,改变并不明显,至少在此刻,在当下,是没有什么大的涟漪的,甚至比起股价跌宕,知乎用户们更关心哥斯拉和金刚谁更厉害,以及苏伊士运河堵船事故如何才能最大程度减少损失。\n这看似有点无情,但恰恰符合知乎一贯的传统,我当然更关心与我利益相关的问题,毕竟知乎上市那100股也只发给知乎大V,而作为普通用户,我的问题能得到回答,我的好奇心可以被满足,这就够了。\n所以,从这个角度出发,那些拿知乎上市佐证中国互联网内容社区之路艰难的论断,差不多可以消停了,只要有人发问,知乎就有生存空间,而有生存空间,短期的冲突就不会让人长久焦虑。\n并且,问答社区与一般的内容社区不同,从用户关系建立、延展,到用户关系的突破与稳定,这一系列动作间,有一个流畅的路径。\n举个例子,如果说B站、小红书等产品是话题作文,那么知乎这种问答社区就是命题作文,前者是主题制度,用户要自己筛选内容进而发布,但知乎的标题是限定的,背景也是限定的,这就同时解决了内容生产和内容消费的问题。在内容生产中,由用户先行提问,知乎答主再根据命题写回答、生产内容,当获得越多的赞同后,知乎答主就会越加积极地生产内容。\n而且更有意思的一点是,内容创作者在其他社区可能会因为对创作选题的误判,而丧失自然流量,但在知乎,有能力的、且认真回答问题的宝藏答主,基本是不会被淹没的,问进制下,好回答会和好问题一起,共同走向高赞。\n之前我们就曾提到过,知乎内容平均流通时长可以达到8个月,问题的平均流通时间是18个月,其中,优质的内容会在流通时间内被反复激活,长尾内容则会持续流通。\n所以,哪怕像我这样的非大V答主,也会因为单个高赞问题,而持续不断地获得曝光。\n本质上,问答社区的精髓在于一种情报和帮助,它能够解决提问者非常具象化的问题。而且,越是具体、深度的问答,价值就越高,往更纵深处看的话,问题社区的终局可能并不仅仅是走向知识付费,而是成为虚拟空间里的图书馆,数字版的十万个为什么。\n沿着这个角度出发,就可以理解周源在上市演讲中,为什么把「服务创作者」定位为知乎的圆点。\n因为只有这样,知乎才不会因为社区产品的自然老化而走向衰落,而是能始终保持活力,哪怕做不到时刻占据用户的日活,也能稳定住月活。\n03\n从0到1再到IPO\n在知乎十周年的演讲中,周源曾表示:「处于高速发展期的互联网企业,容易出现‘三化’风险——对环境感知的钝化、企业机体的老化和创新能力的弱化。但面对问题,应该做的不是解释,只有解决。」\n说出这段话的周源,其实很不像媒体描述中的文艺青年和理想主义者,程序员的极客思维依然存在于他身上。\n这种理念与极客吧的slogan一样有意思,所谓「开源精神永不死,没有信息就没有未来」,放到内容社区身上亦是如此。\n其实在很多年前,周源就强调过「社区是特殊的数字化产品,有自己的生长节奏」,这也是知乎能区别于得到一类的知识付费产品的理由。相比之下,周源并不像一个纯粹的创业者,严格来说,他更像一个媒体属性的技术工作者,和一个有点理想主义的内容创作者。\n我还记得他曾经写过的一篇回答,主题是科技与社会,讨论的核心是,科学技术和科技公司的发展,与社会产生了哪些矛盾?以及未来将如何解决?\n这篇回答,重点分享了他对智能系统的看法,在他看来,「精准的推荐导致我们只能看到特定的话题,很难跳出这个信息圈,造成回音桶效应」。\n包括他最后给出的结尾,也十分地符合一个做过记者的程序员应有的气质:「不要沉溺于短暂的快乐,而成为一只只触碰电极至死的老鼠。」\n透过他的回答与这么多年的分享,我们或多或少也能窥见周源对知乎边界的定位。对比其他平台,比如快手、B站,赚的每一分钱都是用户价值的货币化,但知乎不是,它也不能是,知识社区如果靠打情怀牌盈利,靠强调情感链接来留住用户,那和贩卖心灵鸡汤也没什么区别了。\n虽然投资人们一再强调互联网公司没有中间状态,但投内容社区的投资人,很大概率都不这么想。就拿知乎来说,这艘船之所以在十年前被投资人看好,也从来不是因为能煽动用户。\n创新工场管理合伙人汪华,在知乎上市之际,聊起过给知乎投资的原因,他说:「当时的互联网市场环境百家争鸣,各种游戏的娱乐社区特别火但生长特别野蛮,我们评估这样的环境下做一个沉淀优质内容的平台有风险,但我和开复都觉得周源很有心来做这个事情,也很符合我们的机构气质,所以很快决定投资天使轮,后来连续投了4轮。」\n言下之意,过去的故事,是知乎从0到1再到IPO,未来的故事,并不一定要强迫知乎改变自己的模式,事实上,中国的内容社区可以走出中国的特色。\n这一点,很像是哔哩哔哩超越NicoNico。N站几乎还是那个N站,而B站已经变成了集社区、NicoNico和YouTube所长的富媒体产品。\n相应地,Quora在美国差不多还是那个Quora,而知乎,则成为了CIC调查中所描述的「中国最大的问答式在线社区」与「中国前五大综合在线内容社区」。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355301070,"gmtCreate":1617026841590,"gmtModify":1617026841590,"author":{"id":"3521638279113867","authorId":"3521638279113867","name":"美易添科技","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d386fe5e62c4fa3844ec8484954ab1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521638279113867","authorIdStr":"3521638279113867"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">$知乎(ZH)$</a>知乎连自己破发的现实都不敢面对,妥妥的鸵鸟心态。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">$知乎(ZH)$</a>知乎连自己破发的现实都不敢面对,妥妥的鸵鸟心态。","text":"$知乎(ZH)$知乎连自己破发的现实都不敢面对,妥妥的鸵鸟心态。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7a9d2da9e6b3c7a3ba06fdea85509ab","width":"828","height":"1792"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355301070","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560155605945696","authorId":"3560155605945696","name":"LensAsset","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b02da4a6540fa31e6f013307b8ba868","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560155605945696","authorIdStr":"3560155605945696"},"content":"流量最不值钱的网站,创始人自我**","text":"流量最不值钱的网站,创始人自我**","html":"流量最不值钱的网站,创始人自我**"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306728700,"gmtCreate":1604478287000,"gmtModify":1703833329851,"author":{"id":"3521638279113867","authorId":"3521638279113867","name":"美易添科技","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d386fe5e62c4fa3844ec8484954ab1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521638279113867","authorIdStr":"3521638279113867"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"能保住十分之一就不错了!","listText":"能保住十分之一就不错了!","text":"能保住十分之一就不错了!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306728700","repostId":"1198300786","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198300786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1604461327,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198300786?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-04 11:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"阿里一夜跌去4400亿,蚂蚁2万亿估值能不能保得住?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198300786","media":"投中网","summary":"蚂蚁距离敲钟还有两天被紧急叫停,2万亿金融巨无霸是否难逃被拆分的命运?\n\n距离敲钟还有两天,作为史上最大IPO的蚂蚁被紧急按下暂停键。\n事件发酵一晚,最新的消息显示蚂蚁重启IPO预计要到半年之后。不过","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>蚂蚁距离敲钟还有两天被紧急叫停,2万亿金融巨无霸是否难逃被拆分的命运?</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>距离敲钟还有两天,作为史上最大IPO的蚂蚁被紧急按下暂停键。</p>\n<p>事件发酵一晚,最新的消息显示蚂蚁重启IPO预计要到半年之后。不过,对于这一消息蚂蚁官方并没有正面回应,蚂蚁重启IPO是否真的要到半年后,现在还是个未知数。对于蚂蚁之外的大部分人来说,眼下最关心的是打新的资金能否退回,早间富途证券发公告称将悉数退回全部认购手续费和银行融资利息,目前各家券商陆续开始退回投资者打新资金。</p>\n<p>对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>内部和机构投资者来说,前不久那场史上最大的造富盛宴能否继续,充满了未知。相似危机曾在去年8月金控新规发出后上演,新规发出后,蚂蚁金服被质疑到底姓金还是姓科,当时蚂蚁金服的应对办法是反复强调科技属性,随即更名为蚂蚁集团。</p>\n<p>如今,网贷新政,监管约谈都被蚂蚁赶上,摆在蚂蚁面前最棘手的问题成了:之后重启IPO,2万亿估值蚂蚁能不能保得住?</p>\n<p><b>惊魂一夜</b></p>\n<p>11月3日晚间,上海证券交易所官网发布《关于暂缓蚂蚁科技集团股份有限公司科创板上市的决定》,原定于11月5日在上交所科创板上市的蚂蚁集团被暂缓上市。随后港交所也发布公告,暂缓蚂蚁H股上市。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bdbc5a9912b7de26156cd134a5dd5c6\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"462\"></p>\n<p>根据上交所公告,近日发生蚂蚁集团实际控制人及董事长、总经理被有关部门联合进行监管约谈,蚂蚁集团也报告所处的金融科技监管环境发生变化等重大事项。该重大事项可能导致蚂蚁集团不符合发行上市条件或者信息披露要求。根据相关规定,并征询保荐机构的意见,上交所决定暂缓蚂蚁集团上市。</p>\n<p>消息一经传出,蚂蚁集团大股东<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股价盘前暴跌。美股开盘后,阿里巴巴开盘价相比上一交易日收盘时暴跌8%,市值跌去666亿美元(约4400亿元)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e97afdc65509a0a11865ec20d347a130\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"929\"></p>\n<p>随后蚂蚁发布公告,宣布暂缓A股科创板上市,同时进行的H股香港联交所主板上市亦将暂缓,并称将尽快公布有关暂缓上市及退回申请股款的进一步详情。此次IPO蚂蚁集团在科创板和港股发行总计33.4亿股(绿鞋前),募资总额近2300亿元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>新闻《一线》则报道称,蚂蚁集团暂停后需要重新调整上市板块的业务内容以及重新估值。据悉,11月3日晚间蚂蚁集团董事长井贤栋召集集团内部中高管召开紧急会议,会议上提及到“暂缓”之后,保守估计蚂蚁重新上市的时间要被推迟半年左右。</p>\n<p><b>监管风暴</b></p>\n<p>11月2日,中国人民银行、中国银保监会、中国证监会、国家外汇管理局对蚂蚁集团实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明进行了监管约谈。</p>\n<p>蚂蚁集团对此回复投中网称,今日,蚂蚁集团实际控制人与相关管理层接受了各主要监管部门的监管约谈。蚂蚁集团会深入落实约谈意见,<b>继续沿着「稳妥创新、拥抱监管、服务实体、开放共赢」的十六字指导方针,继续提升普惠服务能力,助力经济和民生发展。</b></p>\n<p>而就在几天前的外滩金融峰会上,作为蚂蚁集团实控人的马云还在演讲中提出了多条挑战传统金融体系的观点。包括“需要改掉金融的当铺思想”、“做没有风险的创新就是扼杀创新”、“好的创新不怕监管,怕用昨天的方式监管”等。</p>\n<p>此外,公告中提到的监管环境变化,或与近日出台的网络小贷监管新规有关。11月2日晚间,为规范小额贷款公司网络小额贷款业务,银保监会会同中国人民银行起草《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法(征求意见稿)》(以下简称“暂行办法”),并向社会公开征求意见。</p>\n<p>蚂蚁集团持有2张小贷牌照,分别是重庆市蚂蚁商城小额贷款有限公司、重庆市蚂蚁小微小额贷款有限公司。投中网注意到,《暂行办法》中的三条新规或与蚂蚁集团息息相关。</p>\n<p>1)《暂行办法》第十二条规定,经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司通过银行借款、股东借款等非标准化融资形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的1倍;通过发行债券、资产证券化产品等标准化债权类资产形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的4倍。</p>\n<p>2)《暂行办法》第十三条规定,对自然人的单户网络小额贷款余额原则上不得超过人民币30万元,不得超过其最近3年年均收入的三分之一,该两项金额中的较低者为贷款金额最高限额;对法人或其他组织及其关联方的单户网络小额贷款余额原则上不得超过人民币100万元。</p>\n<p>3)《暂行办法》第十五条规定,在单笔联合贷款中,经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司的出资比例不得低于30%。</p>\n<p>《暂行办法》首先控制了金融科技公司通过小贷公司展开信贷业务的杠杆率。上述第一条规定,意味着小贷公司自身的资金杠杆控制在五倍;同时第三条规定,限制小贷公司需要在联合贷款中出资不低于30%。</p>\n<p>按照蚂蚁集团招股书中披露的目前2.1万亿的信贷余额,蚂蚁的小贷公司需要在联合贷款中出资6300亿,也就意味着净资产至少达到1050亿元。而根据蚂蚁的招股书,蚂蚁商城和蚂蚁小微的净资产总和约为350亿元,距离上述净资产要求还差3倍。而如果蚂蚁集团未来想进一步扩张微贷业务规模,还需按照相同比例(至少20倍杠杆)提升小贷公司的净资产。</p>\n<p><b>何去何从</b></p>\n<p>当下最值得关注的是,蚂蚁集团IPO暂缓背后,监管是否会要求蚂蚁要从上市主体中调整甚至剥离逐渐纳入强监管的小贷公司。</p>\n<p>过去几年,以花呗、借呗为代表的微贷业务贡献了蚂蚁集团营收增长的重要一块。蚂蚁今年上半年微贷业务实现营收286亿元,占总营收的40%。微贷业务营收同比去年增长约106亿元,贡献了蚂蚁去年营收增长的50%以上。</p>\n<p>微贷业务又可以按照提供平台和技术的互联网科技板块,以及提供借贷资金的金融板块(小贷公司),随着监管环境变化,蚂蚁重新申请IPO时存在将金融板块剥离的可能性。</p>\n<p>实际上这种情况也已经不是第一次发生。去年7月央行发布《金融控股公司监督管理试行办法》(征求意见稿),将非金融企业投资形成金融控股公司后盲目扩张纳入全面监管,当时彭博就曾报道称,蚂蚁集团计划成立一家新的金融控股子公司,并将小贷、银行、保险等金融业务纳入到金融公司。</p>\n<p>零壹研究院院长于百程告诉投中网,蚂蚁的微贷科技业务是创收最多的业务子板块,其主体目前主要是两家网络小贷,因此本次从严的网络小贷新规将对这块业务形成直接影响。</p>\n<p>“一方面需要重新申请全国牌照,另一方面联合贷款出资比例等造成的业务杠杆的限制,对于业务增长的影响可能最为直接。后续待办法正式落地,蚂蚁的微贷科技业务模式也将进行调整。不过综合看,蚂蚁上市后资金储备丰富,后续也可能采取其他比如消费金融公司牌照,或者用纯科技服务的方式进行微贷科技业务。”</p>\n<p>不过也有观点认为,虽然短期内阵痛,但长期来看未必不是一件好事。</p>\n<p>金融行业资深分析师王蓬博告诉投中网:“首先,联合放贷杠杆率的限制对于短期内蚂蚁利润的影响是直接显而易见的,但仍然可以看到,在社会实际资金需求不变的前提下,行业门槛整体都会被提高,对蚂蚁这样的头部机构实际上是一种利好。此外从长期来看,靴子落地了以后起码有个明确的身份,我觉得是好事。”</p>\n<p>至于IPO暂缓后重启,蚂蚁集团2万亿估值能否保得住?</p>\n<p>王蓬博对投中网表示,蚂蚁金服之后能否上市,还要看蚂蚁自己的判断,如果今年以金融业务上市,那他或不一定能享受到科技机构上市的高估值。</p>\n<p>但如果剩下的半年或未来一年,蚂蚁的增速仍然很快,同时能够对资本和监管解释清楚公司的整体生态是密不可分的,因为信用基础的科技含量才推动了金融业务的高速增长,那最后就要看资本市场和监管的认定。</p>\n<p>零壹研究院院长于百程认为,蚂蚁的估值受两方面影响,一方面是整个市场预期,现在监管政策突然变化,因为被约谈,其估值肯定会低,另一方面受业绩表现影响,除此之外,也跟市场的活跃情况及市场的大盘估值有关。</p>\n<p>政策预期要看之后,面对政策的变化,如果小贷政策落地,蚂蚁则需要根据监管要求调整小贷业务,要么申请可以经营全国小贷业务的小贷牌照,要么通过其他的方式改变业务模式,符合监管,这些都是蚂蚁需要做调整的。</p>\n<p>蚂蚁在发展的过程中经历了多轮的政策变化,但每次都能做出适当的调整。</p>\n<p>对于之后上市的估值,则要看半年以后蚂蚁的调整和政策相比的适应性如何,科技属性是否更强,业绩增长情况如何,以及当时的全国经济增长等整体因素。</p>\n<p><b>造富盛宴散场?</b></p>\n<p>先不论蚂蚁暂停上市进程后将如何进行调整,全球最大IPO叫停的影响已经开始显现。</p>\n<p>11月2日晚间,近日刚刚登陆纽交所的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">陆金所</a>控股紧急向媒体澄清,陆金所未通过其小额贷款子公司与融资合作伙伴建立任何联合贷款或贷款便利化合作业务,但美股开盘后陆金所依然暴跌10%。</p>\n<p>此外<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>数科也将在近日以2000亿元的估值冲击科创板,京东数科有着与花呗、借呗相似的白条、金条业务,根据招股书,京东数科通过直接、间接的方式控制4家小贷公司,随着新规的推出,京东数科势必也将受到影响。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c34e0b53ed1fee7db60051466edefb6\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"825\"></p>\n<p>此外,半年后如果蚂蚁IPO估值缩水,这场上市狂欢最大的获利者——早期投资机构以及持有蚂蚁股票的阿里、蚂蚁集团高管和员工的获利将大大缩水。如上图所示,除员工高管持股40%、阿里集团持股约30%外,社保基金、马云的云锋基金、中金系、建银系、以及多家险资都是蚂蚁集团的早期投资者。</p>","source":"tzw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里一夜跌去4400亿,蚂蚁2万亿估值能不能保得住?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里一夜跌去4400亿,蚂蚁2万亿估值能不能保得住?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-04 11:42 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fC6KZFl4ERfsM2pSAQQeNQ><strong>投中网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>蚂蚁距离敲钟还有两天被紧急叫停,2万亿金融巨无霸是否难逃被拆分的命运?\n\n距离敲钟还有两天,作为史上最大IPO的蚂蚁被紧急按下暂停键。\n事件发酵一晚,最新的消息显示蚂蚁重启IPO预计要到半年之后。不过,对于这一消息蚂蚁官方并没有正面回应,蚂蚁重启IPO是否真的要到半年后,现在还是个未知数。对于蚂蚁之外的大部分人来说,眼下最关心的是打新的资金能否退回,早间富途证券发公告称将悉数退回全部认购手续费和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fC6KZFl4ERfsM2pSAQQeNQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92e075735f4f9dd3dc753dd809477ea","relate_stocks":{"06688":"蚂蚁集团","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/fC6KZFl4ERfsM2pSAQQeNQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198300786","content_text":"蚂蚁距离敲钟还有两天被紧急叫停,2万亿金融巨无霸是否难逃被拆分的命运?\n\n距离敲钟还有两天,作为史上最大IPO的蚂蚁被紧急按下暂停键。\n事件发酵一晚,最新的消息显示蚂蚁重启IPO预计要到半年之后。不过,对于这一消息蚂蚁官方并没有正面回应,蚂蚁重启IPO是否真的要到半年后,现在还是个未知数。对于蚂蚁之外的大部分人来说,眼下最关心的是打新的资金能否退回,早间富途证券发公告称将悉数退回全部认购手续费和银行融资利息,目前各家券商陆续开始退回投资者打新资金。\n对于蚂蚁集团内部和机构投资者来说,前不久那场史上最大的造富盛宴能否继续,充满了未知。相似危机曾在去年8月金控新规发出后上演,新规发出后,蚂蚁金服被质疑到底姓金还是姓科,当时蚂蚁金服的应对办法是反复强调科技属性,随即更名为蚂蚁集团。\n如今,网贷新政,监管约谈都被蚂蚁赶上,摆在蚂蚁面前最棘手的问题成了:之后重启IPO,2万亿估值蚂蚁能不能保得住?\n惊魂一夜\n11月3日晚间,上海证券交易所官网发布《关于暂缓蚂蚁科技集团股份有限公司科创板上市的决定》,原定于11月5日在上交所科创板上市的蚂蚁集团被暂缓上市。随后港交所也发布公告,暂缓蚂蚁H股上市。\n\n根据上交所公告,近日发生蚂蚁集团实际控制人及董事长、总经理被有关部门联合进行监管约谈,蚂蚁集团也报告所处的金融科技监管环境发生变化等重大事项。该重大事项可能导致蚂蚁集团不符合发行上市条件或者信息披露要求。根据相关规定,并征询保荐机构的意见,上交所决定暂缓蚂蚁集团上市。\n消息一经传出,蚂蚁集团大股东阿里巴巴股价盘前暴跌。美股开盘后,阿里巴巴开盘价相比上一交易日收盘时暴跌8%,市值跌去666亿美元(约4400亿元)。\n\n随后蚂蚁发布公告,宣布暂缓A股科创板上市,同时进行的H股香港联交所主板上市亦将暂缓,并称将尽快公布有关暂缓上市及退回申请股款的进一步详情。此次IPO蚂蚁集团在科创板和港股发行总计33.4亿股(绿鞋前),募资总额近2300亿元。\n腾讯新闻《一线》则报道称,蚂蚁集团暂停后需要重新调整上市板块的业务内容以及重新估值。据悉,11月3日晚间蚂蚁集团董事长井贤栋召集集团内部中高管召开紧急会议,会议上提及到“暂缓”之后,保守估计蚂蚁重新上市的时间要被推迟半年左右。\n监管风暴\n11月2日,中国人民银行、中国银保监会、中国证监会、国家外汇管理局对蚂蚁集团实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明进行了监管约谈。\n蚂蚁集团对此回复投中网称,今日,蚂蚁集团实际控制人与相关管理层接受了各主要监管部门的监管约谈。蚂蚁集团会深入落实约谈意见,继续沿着「稳妥创新、拥抱监管、服务实体、开放共赢」的十六字指导方针,继续提升普惠服务能力,助力经济和民生发展。\n而就在几天前的外滩金融峰会上,作为蚂蚁集团实控人的马云还在演讲中提出了多条挑战传统金融体系的观点。包括“需要改掉金融的当铺思想”、“做没有风险的创新就是扼杀创新”、“好的创新不怕监管,怕用昨天的方式监管”等。\n此外,公告中提到的监管环境变化,或与近日出台的网络小贷监管新规有关。11月2日晚间,为规范小额贷款公司网络小额贷款业务,银保监会会同中国人民银行起草《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法(征求意见稿)》(以下简称“暂行办法”),并向社会公开征求意见。\n蚂蚁集团持有2张小贷牌照,分别是重庆市蚂蚁商城小额贷款有限公司、重庆市蚂蚁小微小额贷款有限公司。投中网注意到,《暂行办法》中的三条新规或与蚂蚁集团息息相关。\n1)《暂行办法》第十二条规定,经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司通过银行借款、股东借款等非标准化融资形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的1倍;通过发行债券、资产证券化产品等标准化债权类资产形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的4倍。\n2)《暂行办法》第十三条规定,对自然人的单户网络小额贷款余额原则上不得超过人民币30万元,不得超过其最近3年年均收入的三分之一,该两项金额中的较低者为贷款金额最高限额;对法人或其他组织及其关联方的单户网络小额贷款余额原则上不得超过人民币100万元。\n3)《暂行办法》第十五条规定,在单笔联合贷款中,经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司的出资比例不得低于30%。\n《暂行办法》首先控制了金融科技公司通过小贷公司展开信贷业务的杠杆率。上述第一条规定,意味着小贷公司自身的资金杠杆控制在五倍;同时第三条规定,限制小贷公司需要在联合贷款中出资不低于30%。\n按照蚂蚁集团招股书中披露的目前2.1万亿的信贷余额,蚂蚁的小贷公司需要在联合贷款中出资6300亿,也就意味着净资产至少达到1050亿元。而根据蚂蚁的招股书,蚂蚁商城和蚂蚁小微的净资产总和约为350亿元,距离上述净资产要求还差3倍。而如果蚂蚁集团未来想进一步扩张微贷业务规模,还需按照相同比例(至少20倍杠杆)提升小贷公司的净资产。\n何去何从\n当下最值得关注的是,蚂蚁集团IPO暂缓背后,监管是否会要求蚂蚁要从上市主体中调整甚至剥离逐渐纳入强监管的小贷公司。\n过去几年,以花呗、借呗为代表的微贷业务贡献了蚂蚁集团营收增长的重要一块。蚂蚁今年上半年微贷业务实现营收286亿元,占总营收的40%。微贷业务营收同比去年增长约106亿元,贡献了蚂蚁去年营收增长的50%以上。\n微贷业务又可以按照提供平台和技术的互联网科技板块,以及提供借贷资金的金融板块(小贷公司),随着监管环境变化,蚂蚁重新申请IPO时存在将金融板块剥离的可能性。\n实际上这种情况也已经不是第一次发生。去年7月央行发布《金融控股公司监督管理试行办法》(征求意见稿),将非金融企业投资形成金融控股公司后盲目扩张纳入全面监管,当时彭博就曾报道称,蚂蚁集团计划成立一家新的金融控股子公司,并将小贷、银行、保险等金融业务纳入到金融公司。\n零壹研究院院长于百程告诉投中网,蚂蚁的微贷科技业务是创收最多的业务子板块,其主体目前主要是两家网络小贷,因此本次从严的网络小贷新规将对这块业务形成直接影响。\n“一方面需要重新申请全国牌照,另一方面联合贷款出资比例等造成的业务杠杆的限制,对于业务增长的影响可能最为直接。后续待办法正式落地,蚂蚁的微贷科技业务模式也将进行调整。不过综合看,蚂蚁上市后资金储备丰富,后续也可能采取其他比如消费金融公司牌照,或者用纯科技服务的方式进行微贷科技业务。”\n不过也有观点认为,虽然短期内阵痛,但长期来看未必不是一件好事。\n金融行业资深分析师王蓬博告诉投中网:“首先,联合放贷杠杆率的限制对于短期内蚂蚁利润的影响是直接显而易见的,但仍然可以看到,在社会实际资金需求不变的前提下,行业门槛整体都会被提高,对蚂蚁这样的头部机构实际上是一种利好。此外从长期来看,靴子落地了以后起码有个明确的身份,我觉得是好事。”\n至于IPO暂缓后重启,蚂蚁集团2万亿估值能否保得住?\n王蓬博对投中网表示,蚂蚁金服之后能否上市,还要看蚂蚁自己的判断,如果今年以金融业务上市,那他或不一定能享受到科技机构上市的高估值。\n但如果剩下的半年或未来一年,蚂蚁的增速仍然很快,同时能够对资本和监管解释清楚公司的整体生态是密不可分的,因为信用基础的科技含量才推动了金融业务的高速增长,那最后就要看资本市场和监管的认定。\n零壹研究院院长于百程认为,蚂蚁的估值受两方面影响,一方面是整个市场预期,现在监管政策突然变化,因为被约谈,其估值肯定会低,另一方面受业绩表现影响,除此之外,也跟市场的活跃情况及市场的大盘估值有关。\n政策预期要看之后,面对政策的变化,如果小贷政策落地,蚂蚁则需要根据监管要求调整小贷业务,要么申请可以经营全国小贷业务的小贷牌照,要么通过其他的方式改变业务模式,符合监管,这些都是蚂蚁需要做调整的。\n蚂蚁在发展的过程中经历了多轮的政策变化,但每次都能做出适当的调整。\n对于之后上市的估值,则要看半年以后蚂蚁的调整和政策相比的适应性如何,科技属性是否更强,业绩增长情况如何,以及当时的全国经济增长等整体因素。\n造富盛宴散场?\n先不论蚂蚁暂停上市进程后将如何进行调整,全球最大IPO叫停的影响已经开始显现。\n11月2日晚间,近日刚刚登陆纽交所的陆金所控股紧急向媒体澄清,陆金所未通过其小额贷款子公司与融资合作伙伴建立任何联合贷款或贷款便利化合作业务,但美股开盘后陆金所依然暴跌10%。\n此外京东数科也将在近日以2000亿元的估值冲击科创板,京东数科有着与花呗、借呗相似的白条、金条业务,根据招股书,京东数科通过直接、间接的方式控制4家小贷公司,随着新规的推出,京东数科势必也将受到影响。\n\n此外,半年后如果蚂蚁IPO估值缩水,这场上市狂欢最大的获利者——早期投资机构以及持有蚂蚁股票的阿里、蚂蚁集团高管和员工的获利将大大缩水。如上图所示,除员工高管持股40%、阿里集团持股约30%外,社保基金、马云的云锋基金、中金系、建银系、以及多家险资都是蚂蚁集团的早期投资者。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974153063,"gmtCreate":1600961613152,"gmtModify":1703823204747,"author":{"id":"3521638279113867","authorId":"3521638279113867","name":"美易添科技","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3d386fe5e62c4fa3844ec8484954ab1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521638279113867","authorIdStr":"3521638279113867"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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