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第二菠萝.
我这个人不太会说话,如果说错什么了,你来打我呀!
IP属地:山东
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第二菠萝.
2020-02-05
$吉利德科学(GILD)$
能不能药店碧莲?
第二菠萝.
2020-04-22
$布油现金主连(BZmain)$
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
居然不能开空仓了[笑哭]
第二菠萝.
2022-09-06
$盈喜集团(ATXG)$
优秀的大熊股,别想在这里赚钱,参考
$美物科技有限公司(WNW)$
走势
第二菠萝.
2020-03-03
$小米集团-W(01810)$
今天过来看小米最后一眼[流泪]
第二菠萝.
2020-02-06
$吉利德科学(GILD)$
羞愧难当
第二菠萝.
2019-11-29
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
坚持初心,细水长流,再创新高![强][强][强]
第二菠萝.
2019-06-18
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 177块婴儿底已成立,空头赶快投降,还能留有全尸
第二菠萝.
2020-04-22
$布油现金主连(BZmain)$
难怪涨这么厉害[笑哭]
第二菠萝.
2019-07-05
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 我觉得我挺牛逼的,你们说呢?
第二菠萝.
2020-05-05
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
空头永不为奴[生气] [生气] [生气]
第二菠萝.
2020-04-15
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
$纳指ETF(QQQ)$
这波轧空上涨真是像极了过完年的癌股[丢脸]
第二菠萝.
2020-03-10
$波音(BA)$
我321跑的,现在接回来是不是赚100一股?
第二菠萝.
2020-02-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
我赌一包辣条,大队长割肉了[思考]
第二菠萝.
2020-04-28
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
最近行情真是极端反身性,我2800做空标普都被套了[喷血]
第二菠萝.
2020-03-09
$波音(BA)$
甲方让把max的线先缕一缕[流泪]Bloodbath
第二菠萝.
2019-10-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
换个头像庆祝一下[开心]
第二菠萝.
2019-07-23
$迅雷(XNET)$
草了,极速版连个招呼都不打,直接强制升级迅雷X。视用户为狗屎?
第二菠萝.
2021-02-04
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
我就下车撒泡尿,车就开走了[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]
第二菠萝.
2020-07-14
$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
PE不断走高可以强行理解因为无风险利率的降低,但是考虑通胀因素的话,此时持股没有价值可言,投机见好就收,市场偏离必定不会长久,坐等价值回归,中期策略少量卖spy短期虚值call
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?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669843875,"gmtCreate":1662350022898,"gmtModify":1662355364293,"author":{"id":"3521334890966638","authorId":"3521334890966638","name":"第二菠萝.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83faa3c299d12be906dd0cf098f85121","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521334890966638","authorIdStr":"3521334890966638"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"货币政策还有效吗?","listText":"货币政策还有效吗?","text":"货币政策还有效吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669843875","repostId":"1189807388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189807388","pubTimestamp":1662338796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189807388?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-05 08:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"不用再担心资金面,9月会降准吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189807388","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期,如果落地将是明确利好。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期,如果落地将是明确利好。</p><p>本周疫情的反复使得经济预期再度弱化,叠加跨月前后资金利率并未继续走高,市场对资金面的担忧减弱,甚至开始期待9月可能的降准,国内利率再度走低。</p><p>逆回购与MLF分别是银行获取短期和中期基础货币的边际成本,因此政策利率对市场定价意义重大。但当前资金利率已经大幅低于政策利率,如果央行仍通过MLF和逆回购来补充缺口,这在理论上将会推动资金利率逐步向政策利率回归。<b>但央行如果通过降准置换MLF释放低成本资金,这无疑将有利于资金面的宽松维持更长。</b></p><p>市场对降准预期的核心还是由于9月后MLF到期规模的扩大,猜测央行可通过降准置换MLF降低银行的融资成本,同时对冲近期银行净融出的回落。但是降准置换MLF为银行节约的成本有限,央行若希望引导LPR下降不如引导存款利率上限再降。央行对于短期资金面的波动主要仍然是通过逆回购与MLF进行对冲,降准更多是为了补充信贷扩张带来的超储消耗。<b>考虑今年仅4月降准释放5300亿长期流动性,央行利润上缴相当于降准0.5%释放10000亿,信贷扩张消耗的超储仍有近4000亿有待补充,因此年内仍有较大概率实施降准</b>,但其是否会在9月落地仍然存在不确定性,四季度央行通过降准再度引导LPR下降的可能也是存在的。<b>对于9月降准市场可以期待,但似乎还不能作为基准预期。</b></p><p>在当前时点,国内疫情仍在演进的过程中,重要会议前控制疫情扩散仍将是国内政策的重要目标,因此可能仍将对经济活动的恢复带来约束。更重要的是,地产市场信用收缩的局面仍未改变,考虑到房地产对于我国经济的重要性,稳信用的目标实现仍然需要央行的继续发力,这也意味着流动性环境很难出现趋势性的收紧。在当前的利差水平上,债券仍然具备较高的安全边际。</p><p>但随着旺季来临,经济的方向可能仍然是在恢复,尽管存在疫情压制,但除非后续基本面受恢复的方向再度发生变化,否则其对利率水平也难以带来进一步的催化。另一方面,资金利率短期仍然偏低,但考虑中枢已较8月上旬有所抬升,未来波动的幅度仍然存在不确定性,这也对利差水平的进一步压缩带来了阻力。</p><p><b>因此,在当前时点,尽管大方向上依然可以维持乐观,但收益率进一步回落仍然需要催化剂,短期市场的波动可能加大。</b>在这样的背景下,投资者可以继续将久期维持在中性偏高的水平,但不宜过度激进,维持投资组合的高流动性,根据市场的变化及时调整,等待催化剂的逐步显现。</p><p>本周国内利率再度回落。基本面方面,8月中采制造业PMI略有回升,需求端新订单及新出口订单指数均出现了边际改善,但整体仍位于荣枯线下方,生产指数受高温限电等因素影响也与上月持平,整体供需双弱的格局并未出现根本性的改观。而国内疫情仍在发展的过程中,深圳、成都等重点城市也相继进入了部分静默状态,尽管8月末票据利率出现了明显回升,但疫情的反复仍然使市场对于经济的预期再度转弱。而在资金面,跨月前财政支出的推动下,使得资金利率并未出现进一步走高。尽管跨月当日资金利率有所抬升,跨月结束后也没有再回到隔夜加权1%的水平,但在基本面预期的弱化之下,市场对于资金面转向的担忧反而有所减弱,并在博弈9月潜在的降准可能。在这些因素的影响下,本周国内利率再度转为下行,10年期国债活跃券220010下行约3BP至2.63%,且短端利率的下行幅度更大,期限利差再度走阔。</p><p>一、<b>疫情冲击下市场对资金面担忧减弱 开始憧憬9月降准</b></p><p>我们在此前的报告中一直强调,由于目前央行放弃了“引导市场利率围绕政策利率波动”的表述,同时又将7月以来逆回购操作规模的下降归因为市场需求的下降,这意味着当前不论是数量还是价格型的政策工具都无法反映央行对资金面的态度,这使得市场对于资金面的预期产生了混乱。在央行缺乏对资金面的预期引导之下,资金面的事实比预期更加重要。</p><p>尽管8月中下旬以来,银行净融出规模下降,使得隔夜利率在外生冲击下的波动加大,似乎难以回到8月上旬1%左右的水平,这在一定程度上限制了利率下行的空间。但如果单纯从期限利差的角度看,不论是短端利率与资金利率的利差,还是长端利率与短端利率的利差,当前都仍在偏高的位置。换而言之,市场对于资金利率的波动已有一定的定价,当前资金利率的上行程度难以对市场带来趋势性的冲击,更多仍是情绪层面的扰动。在这样的背景下,疫情反复带来的基本面预期弱化,又使得市场对资金面的担忧减弱,甚至开始期待9月可能的降准,这也是收益率近期再度下行的核心因素。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/616c124746149ae46b9910823a9fa6fe\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>二、<b>9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期 如果落地将是明确利好</b></p><p>市场认为央行可能降准的核心因素,主要还是9月后MLF到期规模的扩大,央行可以通过降准置换MLF降低银行的融资成本,同时也认为如果降准落地,也可以对冲近期银行净融出的回落。</p><p>但事实上,MLF到期量大并不能成为央行一定会降准的理由,例如去年7月的降准后,央行在MLF到期量偏大的背景下一直也是等额续作。如果央行与4月一样降准25BP,考虑MLF利率与法准利率的利差,其为商业银行节约的成本仅在50亿左右。如果央行希望通过降低金融机构负债成本,进而引导LPR的下降,引导存款利率上限下降无疑是更好的选择,节约成本不是央行降准的主要目的。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0126250a3b320d48ea6624f58fed2bf0\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>根据央行此前短中长期的流动性框架,短期资金面的波动主要仍然是通过逆回购与MLF进行对冲,而降准则是根据货币政策调控需要和存款增长带来法定准备金需求增加的速度,适时适度调整。过去几年,央行降准的规模与信贷扩张所消耗的超储也是大致匹配的。我们估计,今年信贷扩张所消耗的超储规模大约将达到1.9万亿,而今年央行仅在4月降准一次,释放了5300亿长期流动性,这样的规模是相对偏低的。另一方面,今年央行利润上缴的规模明显扩大,根据二季度货币政策执行报告的表述,“截至7月底已上缴1万亿元,相当于全面降准近0.5个百分点的政策力度”。但即便考虑这部分因素,长期流动性的释放规模相对于信贷扩张而言仍存4000亿左右的缺口,年内仍有较大的可能再度降准25BP。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7354a87f38942c3acc7b106666377a1e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>但如果节约成本并不是降准主要目的,加上8月信贷收支分析会后信贷投放可能也有所增加,从历史上看,似乎也无法找到在重要会议前降准落地的规律,因此降准是否会在9月落地仍然存在不确定性。换个角度看,今年前三季度,LPR各降一次,因此将降准保留到四季度,引导四季度LPR再降同样是可能的选择。因此,对于9月降准市场可以期待,但似乎还不能作为基准预期。</p><p>从理论上讲,尽管MLF与逆回购规模相对于每日质押式回购市场的成交规模,乃至于银行整体的负债规模都相对有限,但是按照央行的观点,逆回购与MLF分别是商业银行从央行获取短期和中期基础货币的边际成本,由于市场价格更多由边际成本决定,因此其对市场利率的定价仍然将发挥重要的影响。但在4月中旬以来,资金利率已经大幅低于政策利率,在这样的背景下,如果央行仍然在通过大规模的MLF和逆回购来补充流动性缺口,这在理论上将会推动资金利率逐步向政策利率回归。但央行如果通过降准置换MLF释放低成本资金,这至少在理论上会更有利于资金面的宽松维持更长。</p><p>三、<b>疫情与地产市场的不确定性仍存 大方向上仍可维持乐观</b></p><p>在当前时点,国内疫情仍在演进的过程中。目前31个省级行政单位中,仅有7个区域内无中高风险病例。考虑在10月重要会议前,控制疫情扩散仍将是国内政策的重要目标,因此疫情可能仍将对经济活动的恢复带来约束。尽管近期高温天气的冲击减弱,经济即将步入旺季,本周地产销售数据也出现了一定的改善,但生产端各行业开工指标的恢复程度均相对有限,仍然明显低于去年同期,钢材表观需求也未见起色。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eef939b642c38c2da22ade87e8f4e2a7\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>更重要的是,地产市场信用收缩的局面仍未改变,由于房地产市场未来模式的顶层设计尚未明确,政府对于当前地产市场的救助始终坚持市场化原则,究竟由谁来承担相关损失一直没有明确的态度,考虑到各地地产市场与地方政府财力的差异性,这导致了地产市场的处置进度仍然偏慢。由于出险房企无力自救,金融机构对于地产信用风险也采取规避的态度,这使得地产信用风险仍在进一步传导的过程中。</p><p>考虑到房地产对于我国经济的重要性,在地产信用收缩尚未改善的背景下,经济的改善程度仍然有限,稳信用的目标实现仍然需要央行的继续发力,这也意味着流动性环境很难出现趋势性的收紧。在当前的利差水平上,债券仍然具备较高的安全边际,在大方向上仍然可以对债券维持乐观的态度。</p><p>四、<b>短期继续下行存在阻力 维持中高久期等待催化</b></p><p>但从短期来看,尽管疫情对于经济的压制仍存,但随着旺季来临,经济的方向可能仍然是在恢复,在票据利率的上行后,8月信贷可能也会出现一定程度的发力,前期专项债等政策可能发挥更大的作用。除非基本面受到了新的冲击,使其恢复的方向再度发生变化,否则其对利率水平也难以带来进一步的催化。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582c6a95329bc0477e79481274ab161\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>另一方面,资金利率短期仍然偏低,短期也很难出现趋势性的收紧,在当前利差水平下这对于债券仍然带来了支持。但考虑资金利率的中枢已较8月上旬有所抬升,未来波动的幅度仍然存在不确定性,这也对利差水平的进一步压缩带来了阻力。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae9f431e64cca4205b8cc923602f881c\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>因此,在当前时点,尽管大方向上依然可以维持乐观,但收益率进一步回落仍然需要催化剂,短期市场的波动可能加大。在这样的背景下,投资者可以将久期维持在中性偏高的水平,但不宜过度激进,维持投资组合的高流动性,根据市场的变化及时调整,等待催化剂的逐步显现。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>不用再担心资金面,9月会降准吗?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不用再担心资金面,9月会降准吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-05 08:46 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4Njc2ODAxMg==&mid=2247499615&idx=1&sn=72b7de00fa6487f0417e61f6069029cc&chksm=9fc11fbca8b696aa1ee164fd10f4880b6512ef1d8f2a0d933f3e9aa192eff526511cd8e3581c&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0905dw2WXk3M4fAK8KJpXdDh&sharer_sharetime=1662335297380&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期,如果落地将是明确利好。本周疫情的反复使得经济预期再度弱化,叠加跨月前后资金利率并未继续走高,市场对资金面的担忧减弱,甚至开始期待9月可能的降准,国内利率再度走低。逆回购与MLF分别是银行获取短期和中期基础货币的边际成本,因此政策利率对市场定价意义重大。但当前资金利率已经大幅低于政策利率,如果央行仍通过MLF和逆回购来补充缺口,这在理论上将会推动资金利率逐步向政策利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4Njc2ODAxMg==&mid=2247499615&idx=1&sn=72b7de00fa6487f0417e61f6069029cc&chksm=9fc11fbca8b696aa1ee164fd10f4880b6512ef1d8f2a0d933f3e9aa192eff526511cd8e3581c&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0905dw2WXk3M4fAK8KJpXdDh&sharer_sharetime=1662335297380&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef70d1a7abd66a31834ef044e9f2343","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4Njc2ODAxMg==&mid=2247499615&idx=1&sn=72b7de00fa6487f0417e61f6069029cc&chksm=9fc11fbca8b696aa1ee164fd10f4880b6512ef1d8f2a0d933f3e9aa192eff526511cd8e3581c&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0905dw2WXk3M4fAK8KJpXdDh&sharer_sharetime=1662335297380&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189807388","content_text":"9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期,如果落地将是明确利好。本周疫情的反复使得经济预期再度弱化,叠加跨月前后资金利率并未继续走高,市场对资金面的担忧减弱,甚至开始期待9月可能的降准,国内利率再度走低。逆回购与MLF分别是银行获取短期和中期基础货币的边际成本,因此政策利率对市场定价意义重大。但当前资金利率已经大幅低于政策利率,如果央行仍通过MLF和逆回购来补充缺口,这在理论上将会推动资金利率逐步向政策利率回归。但央行如果通过降准置换MLF释放低成本资金,这无疑将有利于资金面的宽松维持更长。市场对降准预期的核心还是由于9月后MLF到期规模的扩大,猜测央行可通过降准置换MLF降低银行的融资成本,同时对冲近期银行净融出的回落。但是降准置换MLF为银行节约的成本有限,央行若希望引导LPR下降不如引导存款利率上限再降。央行对于短期资金面的波动主要仍然是通过逆回购与MLF进行对冲,降准更多是为了补充信贷扩张带来的超储消耗。考虑今年仅4月降准释放5300亿长期流动性,央行利润上缴相当于降准0.5%释放10000亿,信贷扩张消耗的超储仍有近4000亿有待补充,因此年内仍有较大概率实施降准,但其是否会在9月落地仍然存在不确定性,四季度央行通过降准再度引导LPR下降的可能也是存在的。对于9月降准市场可以期待,但似乎还不能作为基准预期。在当前时点,国内疫情仍在演进的过程中,重要会议前控制疫情扩散仍将是国内政策的重要目标,因此可能仍将对经济活动的恢复带来约束。更重要的是,地产市场信用收缩的局面仍未改变,考虑到房地产对于我国经济的重要性,稳信用的目标实现仍然需要央行的继续发力,这也意味着流动性环境很难出现趋势性的收紧。在当前的利差水平上,债券仍然具备较高的安全边际。但随着旺季来临,经济的方向可能仍然是在恢复,尽管存在疫情压制,但除非后续基本面受恢复的方向再度发生变化,否则其对利率水平也难以带来进一步的催化。另一方面,资金利率短期仍然偏低,但考虑中枢已较8月上旬有所抬升,未来波动的幅度仍然存在不确定性,这也对利差水平的进一步压缩带来了阻力。因此,在当前时点,尽管大方向上依然可以维持乐观,但收益率进一步回落仍然需要催化剂,短期市场的波动可能加大。在这样的背景下,投资者可以继续将久期维持在中性偏高的水平,但不宜过度激进,维持投资组合的高流动性,根据市场的变化及时调整,等待催化剂的逐步显现。本周国内利率再度回落。基本面方面,8月中采制造业PMI略有回升,需求端新订单及新出口订单指数均出现了边际改善,但整体仍位于荣枯线下方,生产指数受高温限电等因素影响也与上月持平,整体供需双弱的格局并未出现根本性的改观。而国内疫情仍在发展的过程中,深圳、成都等重点城市也相继进入了部分静默状态,尽管8月末票据利率出现了明显回升,但疫情的反复仍然使市场对于经济的预期再度转弱。而在资金面,跨月前财政支出的推动下,使得资金利率并未出现进一步走高。尽管跨月当日资金利率有所抬升,跨月结束后也没有再回到隔夜加权1%的水平,但在基本面预期的弱化之下,市场对于资金面转向的担忧反而有所减弱,并在博弈9月潜在的降准可能。在这些因素的影响下,本周国内利率再度转为下行,10年期国债活跃券220010下行约3BP至2.63%,且短端利率的下行幅度更大,期限利差再度走阔。一、疫情冲击下市场对资金面担忧减弱 开始憧憬9月降准我们在此前的报告中一直强调,由于目前央行放弃了“引导市场利率围绕政策利率波动”的表述,同时又将7月以来逆回购操作规模的下降归因为市场需求的下降,这意味着当前不论是数量还是价格型的政策工具都无法反映央行对资金面的态度,这使得市场对于资金面的预期产生了混乱。在央行缺乏对资金面的预期引导之下,资金面的事实比预期更加重要。尽管8月中下旬以来,银行净融出规模下降,使得隔夜利率在外生冲击下的波动加大,似乎难以回到8月上旬1%左右的水平,这在一定程度上限制了利率下行的空间。但如果单纯从期限利差的角度看,不论是短端利率与资金利率的利差,还是长端利率与短端利率的利差,当前都仍在偏高的位置。换而言之,市场对于资金利率的波动已有一定的定价,当前资金利率的上行程度难以对市场带来趋势性的冲击,更多仍是情绪层面的扰动。在这样的背景下,疫情反复带来的基本面预期弱化,又使得市场对资金面的担忧减弱,甚至开始期待9月可能的降准,这也是收益率近期再度下行的核心因素。二、9月降准可以期待但不是基准预期 如果落地将是明确利好市场认为央行可能降准的核心因素,主要还是9月后MLF到期规模的扩大,央行可以通过降准置换MLF降低银行的融资成本,同时也认为如果降准落地,也可以对冲近期银行净融出的回落。但事实上,MLF到期量大并不能成为央行一定会降准的理由,例如去年7月的降准后,央行在MLF到期量偏大的背景下一直也是等额续作。如果央行与4月一样降准25BP,考虑MLF利率与法准利率的利差,其为商业银行节约的成本仅在50亿左右。如果央行希望通过降低金融机构负债成本,进而引导LPR的下降,引导存款利率上限下降无疑是更好的选择,节约成本不是央行降准的主要目的。根据央行此前短中长期的流动性框架,短期资金面的波动主要仍然是通过逆回购与MLF进行对冲,而降准则是根据货币政策调控需要和存款增长带来法定准备金需求增加的速度,适时适度调整。过去几年,央行降准的规模与信贷扩张所消耗的超储也是大致匹配的。我们估计,今年信贷扩张所消耗的超储规模大约将达到1.9万亿,而今年央行仅在4月降准一次,释放了5300亿长期流动性,这样的规模是相对偏低的。另一方面,今年央行利润上缴的规模明显扩大,根据二季度货币政策执行报告的表述,“截至7月底已上缴1万亿元,相当于全面降准近0.5个百分点的政策力度”。但即便考虑这部分因素,长期流动性的释放规模相对于信贷扩张而言仍存4000亿左右的缺口,年内仍有较大的可能再度降准25BP。但如果节约成本并不是降准主要目的,加上8月信贷收支分析会后信贷投放可能也有所增加,从历史上看,似乎也无法找到在重要会议前降准落地的规律,因此降准是否会在9月落地仍然存在不确定性。换个角度看,今年前三季度,LPR各降一次,因此将降准保留到四季度,引导四季度LPR再降同样是可能的选择。因此,对于9月降准市场可以期待,但似乎还不能作为基准预期。从理论上讲,尽管MLF与逆回购规模相对于每日质押式回购市场的成交规模,乃至于银行整体的负债规模都相对有限,但是按照央行的观点,逆回购与MLF分别是商业银行从央行获取短期和中期基础货币的边际成本,由于市场价格更多由边际成本决定,因此其对市场利率的定价仍然将发挥重要的影响。但在4月中旬以来,资金利率已经大幅低于政策利率,在这样的背景下,如果央行仍然在通过大规模的MLF和逆回购来补充流动性缺口,这在理论上将会推动资金利率逐步向政策利率回归。但央行如果通过降准置换MLF释放低成本资金,这至少在理论上会更有利于资金面的宽松维持更长。三、疫情与地产市场的不确定性仍存 大方向上仍可维持乐观在当前时点,国内疫情仍在演进的过程中。目前31个省级行政单位中,仅有7个区域内无中高风险病例。考虑在10月重要会议前,控制疫情扩散仍将是国内政策的重要目标,因此疫情可能仍将对经济活动的恢复带来约束。尽管近期高温天气的冲击减弱,经济即将步入旺季,本周地产销售数据也出现了一定的改善,但生产端各行业开工指标的恢复程度均相对有限,仍然明显低于去年同期,钢材表观需求也未见起色。更重要的是,地产市场信用收缩的局面仍未改变,由于房地产市场未来模式的顶层设计尚未明确,政府对于当前地产市场的救助始终坚持市场化原则,究竟由谁来承担相关损失一直没有明确的态度,考虑到各地地产市场与地方政府财力的差异性,这导致了地产市场的处置进度仍然偏慢。由于出险房企无力自救,金融机构对于地产信用风险也采取规避的态度,这使得地产信用风险仍在进一步传导的过程中。考虑到房地产对于我国经济的重要性,在地产信用收缩尚未改善的背景下,经济的改善程度仍然有限,稳信用的目标实现仍然需要央行的继续发力,这也意味着流动性环境很难出现趋势性的收紧。在当前的利差水平上,债券仍然具备较高的安全边际,在大方向上仍然可以对债券维持乐观的态度。四、短期继续下行存在阻力 维持中高久期等待催化但从短期来看,尽管疫情对于经济的压制仍存,但随着旺季来临,经济的方向可能仍然是在恢复,在票据利率的上行后,8月信贷可能也会出现一定程度的发力,前期专项债等政策可能发挥更大的作用。除非基本面受到了新的冲击,使其恢复的方向再度发生变化,否则其对利率水平也难以带来进一步的催化。另一方面,资金利率短期仍然偏低,短期也很难出现趋势性的收紧,在当前利差水平下这对于债券仍然带来了支持。但考虑资金利率的中枢已较8月上旬有所抬升,未来波动的幅度仍然存在不确定性,这也对利差水平的进一步压缩带来了阻力。因此,在当前时点,尽管大方向上依然可以维持乐观,但收益率进一步回落仍然需要催化剂,短期市场的波动可能加大。在这样的背景下,投资者可以将久期维持在中性偏高的水平,但不宜过度激进,维持投资组合的高流动性,根据市场的变化及时调整,等待催化剂的逐步显现。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635245190,"gmtCreate":1647031954728,"gmtModify":1647031954728,"author":{"id":"3521334890966638","authorId":"3521334890966638","name":"第二菠萝.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83faa3c299d12be906dd0cf098f85121","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521334890966638","authorIdStr":"3521334890966638"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$</a>你可真是个人才","listText":"<a 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23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股明年再涨22%?华尔街20大机构这么说,建议买这些股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2089407819","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"华尔街20大机构这么说,并建议买入这些股票 来源:腾讯美股腾讯证券12月8日讯,据一份最新调查显示,在接受调查的20名美股市场策略师中,预测美国股市在进入2021年之后仍将继续上涨的受访者占到了多数,他们预计明年标普500指数将在当前水平的基础上进一步上涨8%至22%。此次调查是以电子邮件问卷的形式在11月25日至12月3日之间进行的。参与调查的一家大型机构预计,到2021年底人民币兑美元汇率将达到6.25。","content":"<p><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020128/106/w544h362/20201208/333f-keyancx2574513.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"362\">据一份最新调查显示,在接受调查的20名美股市场策略师中,预测美国股市在进入2021年之后仍将继续上涨的受访者占到了多数,他们预计明年标普500指数将在当前水平的基础上进一步上涨8%至22%。</p><p>这20位市场策略师来自美国各大金融机构,其中有12人预计标普500指数明年将会升至4000点到4500点之间。相比之下,这项基准股指周一报收于3691.96点,略低于今年以来的收盘高点。</p><p>在这些受访者中,14位策略师将其对明年美国股市的看法描述为“谨慎乐观”,3人称其“非常乐观”,还有3人称其抱有“谨慎”立场。持乐观立场的分析人士提到,他们对美国继续实施经济刺激措施和新冠肺炎疫苗上市的前景抱有希望,此前英国等多个国家已经开始推出疫苗。</p><p>4位策略师预计,标普500指数明年将收于3500点至4000点之间;而在另一方面,4位分析师预计该指数将跌至3000点到3500点区间。</p><p>此次调查是以电子邮件问卷的形式在11月25日至12月3日之间进行的。</p><p><b>新冠病毒疫苗</b></p><p>受访者对标普500指数明年的目标点位作出了范围很广的预期,这突显出随着新冠肺炎免疫进程的启动,疫苗的生产和分发计划存在着不确定性。根据约翰霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)提供的数据,美国现在一周平均每天有2000多人死于新冠病毒感染,创下自疫情开始以来死亡人数最多的纪录。</p><p>尽管如此,大多数分析师仍对明年的整体美股市场前景抱有乐观态度。</p><p>一位分析师表示:“我们相信,随着我们迈向2021年,在疫苗分发和全球经济活动增加的推动之下,美国和全球经济将继续真正地‘重启’。”</p><p>这位分析师继续说道:“我们的假设情境是,2021年经济增长和企业盈利将会反弹,同时利率保持在低位,而财政刺激措施将被加入系统之中,总体来说这对风险资产是个有利的背景。”</p><p>另一位受访者表示:“我们认为,低息环境再加上标普500指数的盈利回升,将导致股市在2021年创下新高。”</p><p><b>谨慎乐观</b></p><p>尽管许多接受调查的策略师都为标普500指数设定了雄心勃勃的目标,但就连一些乐观的受访者也表示,他们将密切关注疫情的管理状况以及各国政府为提振经济而采取的措施。</p><p>一位分析师表示:“我认为,随着世界重新‘上线’,(标普500指数)有15%的上行空间。全球央行注入了如此之多的流动性以帮助阻止市场崩盘,而市场状况日益正常化,这就为下一轮牛市提供了理由。”另外,这位分析师称其也在关注其他一些问题,如“美国的刺激计划被推迟、可能会有的下一波新冠肺炎感染浪潮、以及疫苗供应可能会有的短缺状况”等。</p><p><b>美元和其他货币</b></p><p>接受调查的策略师们还分享了对外汇市场的展望,其中只有3人表示,在美元、欧元、人民币、日元和英镑这几种货币中,美元是其最看好的货币。</p><p>在20位分析师中,有6人认为明年欧元的涨幅将是最大的,而7位分析师认为是人民币。</p><p>“我们预计,在明年的头几个月时间里,欧元区经济将从双底衰退中反弹,再加上市场对美国宽松的财政和货币政策感到担心,以及美国贸易和预算赤字的增加,都将起到推动欧元走强的作用。”一位接受调查的策略师表示。“获得‘鼓励奖’的则将是澳元和人民币,前者是由于大宗商品价格不断上涨,后者则是由于受到中国经济持续复苏的提振。”</p><p>参与调查的一家大型机构预计,到2021年底人民币兑美元汇率将达到6.25。相比之下,人民币兑美元汇率最新报6.54。</p><p>另一位受访者预测,欧元区的政策将增强人们对疫情过后欧洲经济复苏的信心。他表示:“我实际上认为欧元将在明年年初下跌,但将在明年大部分时间里令人意外地恢复近期的涨势。”</p><p>“欧洲将比美国更早走出这波新的新冠病毒浪潮,这将帮助其比美国更快地复苏。”这位分析师继续说道。“更重要的是,欧洲央行在2021年将保持比美联储更宽松的政策。”</p><p><b>2021年的选股</b></p><p>在被问及2021年投资者将押注于哪些顶级股票和行业板块时,大多数受访者都回答说,他们看好那些将可受益于疫情过后经济重启的廉价“周期性”股票,这种股票会随着整体经济体的动能而发生变动。</p><p>买方分析师将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">埃克森美孚</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">雪佛龙</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHI\">贝克休斯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、维萨和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>列为2021年里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>入并持有的股票。</p><p>一位分析师表示:“高通很有价值,2021年年底的目标价为每股170美元。”他指出,智能手机领域中出现了5G技术,而高通获得了“苹果公司为2020年假期发布的新款iPhone的新的芯片客户”。</p><p>但总体而言,2020年里颇受市场青睐的科技股几乎没有被提及。一位策略师表示:“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>仍值得买入,12个月目标价为每股2119美元。随着旅游等行业的反弹,谷歌正在追赶其他大型科技公司,广告支出正在反弹。”</p><p>一位参与调查的知名机构投资者表示,整体上来说看好新兴市场而非发达市场,并预计到2021年底,明晟新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Market Index)将上涨18%。</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股明年再涨22%?华尔街20大机构这么说,建议买这些股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-08 23:33 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-12-08/doc-iiznezxs5922809.shtml><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据一份最新调查显示,在接受调查的20名美股市场策略师中,预测美国股市在进入2021年之后仍将继续上涨的受访者占到了多数,他们预计明年标普500指数将在当前水平的基础上进一步上涨8%至22%。这20位市场策略师来自美国各大金融机构,其中有12人预计标普500指数明年将会升至4000点到4500点之间。相比之下,这项基准股指周一报收于3691.96点,略低于今年以来的收盘高点。在这些受访者中,14位...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-12-08/doc-iiznezxs5922809.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020128/106/w544h362/20201208/333f-keyancx2574513.png/w720fin.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","SPY":"标普500ETF","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-12-08/doc-iiznezxs5922809.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2089407819","content_text":"据一份最新调查显示,在接受调查的20名美股市场策略师中,预测美国股市在进入2021年之后仍将继续上涨的受访者占到了多数,他们预计明年标普500指数将在当前水平的基础上进一步上涨8%至22%。这20位市场策略师来自美国各大金融机构,其中有12人预计标普500指数明年将会升至4000点到4500点之间。相比之下,这项基准股指周一报收于3691.96点,略低于今年以来的收盘高点。在这些受访者中,14位策略师将其对明年美国股市的看法描述为“谨慎乐观”,3人称其“非常乐观”,还有3人称其抱有“谨慎”立场。持乐观立场的分析人士提到,他们对美国继续实施经济刺激措施和新冠肺炎疫苗上市的前景抱有希望,此前英国等多个国家已经开始推出疫苗。4位策略师预计,标普500指数明年将收于3500点至4000点之间;而在另一方面,4位分析师预计该指数将跌至3000点到3500点区间。此次调查是以电子邮件问卷的形式在11月25日至12月3日之间进行的。新冠病毒疫苗受访者对标普500指数明年的目标点位作出了范围很广的预期,这突显出随着新冠肺炎免疫进程的启动,疫苗的生产和分发计划存在着不确定性。根据约翰霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)提供的数据,美国现在一周平均每天有2000多人死于新冠病毒感染,创下自疫情开始以来死亡人数最多的纪录。尽管如此,大多数分析师仍对明年的整体美股市场前景抱有乐观态度。一位分析师表示:“我们相信,随着我们迈向2021年,在疫苗分发和全球经济活动增加的推动之下,美国和全球经济将继续真正地‘重启’。”这位分析师继续说道:“我们的假设情境是,2021年经济增长和企业盈利将会反弹,同时利率保持在低位,而财政刺激措施将被加入系统之中,总体来说这对风险资产是个有利的背景。”另一位受访者表示:“我们认为,低息环境再加上标普500指数的盈利回升,将导致股市在2021年创下新高。”谨慎乐观尽管许多接受调查的策略师都为标普500指数设定了雄心勃勃的目标,但就连一些乐观的受访者也表示,他们将密切关注疫情的管理状况以及各国政府为提振经济而采取的措施。一位分析师表示:“我认为,随着世界重新‘上线’,(标普500指数)有15%的上行空间。全球央行注入了如此之多的流动性以帮助阻止市场崩盘,而市场状况日益正常化,这就为下一轮牛市提供了理由。”另外,这位分析师称其也在关注其他一些问题,如“美国的刺激计划被推迟、可能会有的下一波新冠肺炎感染浪潮、以及疫苗供应可能会有的短缺状况”等。美元和其他货币接受调查的策略师们还分享了对外汇市场的展望,其中只有3人表示,在美元、欧元、人民币、日元和英镑这几种货币中,美元是其最看好的货币。在20位分析师中,有6人认为明年欧元的涨幅将是最大的,而7位分析师认为是人民币。“我们预计,在明年的头几个月时间里,欧元区经济将从双底衰退中反弹,再加上市场对美国宽松的财政和货币政策感到担心,以及美国贸易和预算赤字的增加,都将起到推动欧元走强的作用。”一位接受调查的策略师表示。“获得‘鼓励奖’的则将是澳元和人民币,前者是由于大宗商品价格不断上涨,后者则是由于受到中国经济持续复苏的提振。”参与调查的一家大型机构预计,到2021年底人民币兑美元汇率将达到6.25。相比之下,人民币兑美元汇率最新报6.54。另一位受访者预测,欧元区的政策将增强人们对疫情过后欧洲经济复苏的信心。他表示:“我实际上认为欧元将在明年年初下跌,但将在明年大部分时间里令人意外地恢复近期的涨势。”“欧洲将比美国更早走出这波新的新冠病毒浪潮,这将帮助其比美国更快地复苏。”这位分析师继续说道。“更重要的是,欧洲央行在2021年将保持比美联储更宽松的政策。”2021年的选股在被问及2021年投资者将押注于哪些顶级股票和行业板块时,大多数受访者都回答说,他们看好那些将可受益于疫情过后经济重启的廉价“周期性”股票,这种股票会随着整体经济体的动能而发生变动。买方分析师将埃克森美孚、雪佛龙、贝克休斯、波音、高通、维萨和迪士尼列为2021年里值得买入并持有的股票。一位分析师表示:“高通很有价值,2021年年底的目标价为每股170美元。”他指出,智能手机领域中出现了5G技术,而高通获得了“苹果公司为2020年假期发布的新款iPhone的新的芯片客户”。但总体而言,2020年里颇受市场青睐的科技股几乎没有被提及。一位策略师表示:“谷歌仍值得买入,12个月目标价为每股2119美元。随着旅游等行业的反弹,谷歌正在追赶其他大型科技公司,广告支出正在反弹。”一位参与调查的知名机构投资者表示,整体上来说看好新兴市场而非发达市场,并预计到2021年底,明晟新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Market Index)将上涨18%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301729551,"gmtCreate":1603771318473,"gmtModify":1703830641810,"author":{"id":"3521334890966638","authorId":"3521334890966638","name":"第二菠萝.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83faa3c299d12be906dd0cf098f85121","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521334890966638","authorIdStr":"3521334890966638"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一个搞金融的伪装成高科技来坑蒙拐骗","listText":"一个搞金融的伪装成高科技来坑蒙拐骗","text":"一个搞金融的伪装成高科技来坑蒙拐骗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301729551","repostId":"2078502227","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301707099,"gmtCreate":1603757393011,"gmtModify":1703830570102,"author":{"id":"3521334890966638","authorId":"3521334890966638","name":"第二菠萝.","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83faa3c299d12be906dd0cf098f85121","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521334890966638","authorIdStr":"3521334890966638"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"白嫖345亿刀[冷漠] ","listText":"白嫖345亿刀[冷漠] ","text":"白嫖345亿刀[冷漠]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301707099","repostId":"1105128155","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105128155","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1603756241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105128155?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-27 07:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨:全球市场黑周一!全球最大IPO来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105128155","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要:美股周一低开低走收盘全线暴跌,道指跌幅为2.29%;佩洛西抨击特朗普政府的病毒检测现状,刺激计划谈判仍处僵局;欧美疫情恶化,白宫竟然直接说放弃控制疫情。海外市场1、单日确诊超8万,美股暴跌!道指","content":"<blockquote>摘要:美股周一低开低走收盘全线暴跌,道指跌幅为2.29%;佩洛西抨击特朗普政府的病毒检测现状,刺激计划谈判仍处僵局;欧美疫情恶化,白宫竟然直接说放弃控制疫情。</blockquote><p>海外市场</p><p><b>1、单日确诊超8万,美股暴跌!道指跌超650点</b></p><p>美股周一低开低走收盘全线暴跌,道指跌超650点,盘中一度跌超900点,因美国单日确诊病例创历史新高,新一轮刺激计划仍陷僵局。恐慌指数VIX涨17.82%,报32.46点。截至收盘,道指跌幅为2.29%;纳指跌幅为1.64%;标普500指数跌幅为1.86%。</p><p><b>2、中国概念股周一收盘多数下跌 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TC\">团车</a>网重挫逾22%</b></p><p>中国概念股周一收盘多数下跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>上涨0.09%报收81.41美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>上涨0.01%报收86.92美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>下跌0.73%报收132.95美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>下跌0.98%报收306.87美元;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>上涨7.45%报收2.02美元;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">蘑菇街</a>下跌7.46%报收2.73美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RENN\">人人网</a>下跌7.79%报收4.85美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">微贷网</a>下跌8.42%报收1.74美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">趣店</a>下跌8.50%报收1.40美元。</p><p><b>3、疫情加深导致全球股市受挫,金价收盘微幅上涨</b></p><p>黄金期货价格周一收盘微幅上涨,六个交易日以来第五次走高,原因是随着全球股市因美国和欧洲的新冠肺炎感染病例而齐齐下挫,黄金价格找到了支撑。但与此同时,美元汇率的上涨则限制了金价的涨幅。</p><p><b>4、疫情加深导致需求前景承压,美油收盘大跌逾3%!</b></p><p>原油期货价格周一收盘大幅下跌,创下了三个星期以来的最低水平,原因是美国和欧洲的新冠肺炎感染病例继续激增,从而引发了投资者对原油需求前景的担忧。</p><p><b>5、疫情加深导致欧股收跌近2%!科技股重挫逾7%,思爱普跌近22%</b></p><p>欧洲股市周一收盘下跌,原因是整个欧洲大陆新冠病毒感染病例的激增拖累了市场情绪,而思爱普(SAP)的暴跌导致科技股集体走低。泛欧斯托克600指数下跌6.55点,报收于355.95点,跌幅为1.81%,所有行业板块和欧洲主要国家的股市均收盘走低。</p><p>国际宏观</p><p><b>1、佩洛西抨击特朗普政府的病毒检测现状,刺激计划谈判仍处僵局</b></p><p>美国众议院议长南希-佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)周一对特朗普政府进行了猛烈抨击,因为在冠状病毒感染病例创下新高之际,白宫未能给美国人提供更多的救援和更及时全面的病毒检测。</p><p><b>2、美联储官员:若没有额外刺激举措,经济将重现08年危机过后的疲软复苏</b></p><p>美联储的官员们警告称,如果没有额外的刺激举措,美国经济将面临类似于2008年金融危机过后的那种疲软无力的复苏。当年,在实施了大规模的支出计划之后,美国政府推行长达数年的紧缩政策,这些政策拖累了美国经济的增长。</p><p><b>3、美国制裁伊朗石油部长 两国紧张关系加剧</b></p><p>在距离美国总统大选只有几天时间之际,美国宣布制裁伊朗石油部长和一些相关实体,凸显两国之间的紧张局势持续加剧。</p><p><b>4、经济诺奖得主:投资者对重大市场崩溃的担忧已达到多年来最高水平</b></p><p>诺贝尔经济学奖得主、耶鲁大学教授罗伯特-席勒(Robert Shiller)敦促投资者采取谨慎的态度来投资股票市场。席勒表示:“没有人能预知未来,但鉴于在新冠疫情和政治两极分化中普遍缺乏投资者信心的情况,因此,一种消极的、自我实现的预言很可能会盛行。这凸显了在资产类别(包括安全的美国国债)中进行多元化投资以及减少在美股中风险敞口的重要性。”</p><p><b>5、美刺激协议希望渺茫 库德洛:民主党的大量议题无法得到总统认可</b></p><p>白宫经济顾问库德洛在周一美股午盘时接受采访称,财政刺激谈判“已经显然放缓了,但仍在进行中”;虽然双方距离达成协议更近一步,“但仍有一些重要的政策问题使我们分开,我们的团队认为,要实现目标,众议院方面必须做出更多妥协。”</p><p><b>6、一文读懂全球疫情:全球累计确诊逾4372万例 彭斯团队至少5人感染新冠</b></p><p>Worldometer网站实时统计数据显示,截至北京时间10月27日6时30分左右,全球累计确诊新冠肺炎病例43726564例,累计死亡病例1163437例,110个国家确诊病例超过万例。</p><p>全球疫情持续蔓延,美洲地区,彭斯团队至少5人感染新冠,受疫情影响,巴西女性就业率创30年来最低值;欧洲地区,法国疫情发展超出预期,西班牙意大利抗疫措施再升级;非洲地区,南非旅游部长希望12月前全面开放边界,埃及对感染新冠病毒隐情不报者进行严惩;亚洲地区,印度央行行长新冠检测呈阳性,韩国59人接种流感疫苗后死亡。</p><p><b>7、欧美疫情恶化,白宫竟然直接说放弃控制疫情</b></p><p>当地时间10月25日,白宫办公厅主任马克·梅多斯在接受美国有线电视新闻网采访时表示,美国“不会控制”新冠疫情。与此同时,该国各地新冠肺炎确诊病例激增,已有近22.5万人死于该病毒。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>财报前瞻:料将连续四个季度亏损,737 Max复飞前景备受关注</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>公司(NYSE:BA)定于美国股市周三盘前公布该公司的第三季度业绩,目前这家飞机制造巨头仍旧受到商用喷气式飞机需求下降和波音737 Max飞机持续停飞的影响。</p><p><b>2、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2078501087\" target=\"_blank\"><b>德国软件巨头SAP公布财报后股价暴跌22% 或丢掉欧洲最大科技公司头衔</b></a><b></b></p><p>SAP周一公布了最新一季财报。德国企业软件巨头下调全年营收和利润目标,并调整了其所谓的“中期目标,”预计到2025年云计算营收将会下降,部分原因是在应对冠状病毒大流行持续时间的几个行业出现了“投资回报滞后”。</p><p><b>3、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2078550925\" target=\"_blank\"><b>蒂芙尼与路威酩轩并购交易获欧盟批准</b></a></p><p>美国奢侈品零售商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIF\">蒂芙尼</a>公司表示,其与法国奢侈品巨头路威酩轩价值160亿美元的并购交易已获得欧盟委员会批准,从而扫清了所有监管障碍。</p><p><b>4、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2078650536\" target=\"_blank\"><b>蚂蚁集团IPO将融资345亿美元,超沙特阿美创历史之最</b></a></p><p>据报道,在确定了股票发行价之后,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>此次IPO(首次公开招股)将融资345亿美元,从而超越沙特阿美,成为迄今为止全球规模最大上市活动。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨:全球市场黑周一!全球最大IPO来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-10-27 07:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>摘要:美股周一低开低走收盘全线暴跌,道指跌幅为2.29%;佩洛西抨击特朗普政府的病毒检测现状,刺激计划谈判仍处僵局;欧美疫情恶化,白宫竟然直接说放弃控制疫情。</blockquote><p>海外市场</p><p><b>1、单日确诊超8万,美股暴跌!道指跌超650点</b></p><p>美股周一低开低走收盘全线暴跌,道指跌超650点,盘中一度跌超900点,因美国单日确诊病例创历史新高,新一轮刺激计划仍陷僵局。恐慌指数VIX涨17.82%,报32.46点。截至收盘,道指跌幅为2.29%;纳指跌幅为1.64%;标普500指数跌幅为1.86%。</p><p><b>2、中国概念股周一收盘多数下跌 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TC\">团车</a>网重挫逾22%</b></p><p>中国概念股周一收盘多数下跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>上涨0.09%报收81.41美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>上涨0.01%报收86.92美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>下跌0.73%报收132.95美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>下跌0.98%报收306.87美元;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>上涨7.45%报收2.02美元;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">蘑菇街</a>下跌7.46%报收2.73美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RENN\">人人网</a>下跌7.79%报收4.85美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEI\">微贷网</a>下跌8.42%报收1.74美元,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">趣店</a>下跌8.50%报收1.40美元。</p><p><b>3、疫情加深导致全球股市受挫,金价收盘微幅上涨</b></p><p>黄金期货价格周一收盘微幅上涨,六个交易日以来第五次走高,原因是随着全球股市因美国和欧洲的新冠肺炎感染病例而齐齐下挫,黄金价格找到了支撑。但与此同时,美元汇率的上涨则限制了金价的涨幅。</p><p><b>4、疫情加深导致需求前景承压,美油收盘大跌逾3%!</b></p><p>原油期货价格周一收盘大幅下跌,创下了三个星期以来的最低水平,原因是美国和欧洲的新冠肺炎感染病例继续激增,从而引发了投资者对原油需求前景的担忧。</p><p><b>5、疫情加深导致欧股收跌近2%!科技股重挫逾7%,思爱普跌近22%</b></p><p>欧洲股市周一收盘下跌,原因是整个欧洲大陆新冠病毒感染病例的激增拖累了市场情绪,而思爱普(SAP)的暴跌导致科技股集体走低。泛欧斯托克600指数下跌6.55点,报收于355.95点,跌幅为1.81%,所有行业板块和欧洲主要国家的股市均收盘走低。</p><p>国际宏观</p><p><b>1、佩洛西抨击特朗普政府的病毒检测现状,刺激计划谈判仍处僵局</b></p><p>美国众议院议长南希-佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)周一对特朗普政府进行了猛烈抨击,因为在冠状病毒感染病例创下新高之际,白宫未能给美国人提供更多的救援和更及时全面的病毒检测。</p><p><b>2、美联储官员:若没有额外刺激举措,经济将重现08年危机过后的疲软复苏</b></p><p>美联储的官员们警告称,如果没有额外的刺激举措,美国经济将面临类似于2008年金融危机过后的那种疲软无力的复苏。当年,在实施了大规模的支出计划之后,美国政府推行长达数年的紧缩政策,这些政策拖累了美国经济的增长。</p><p><b>3、美国制裁伊朗石油部长 两国紧张关系加剧</b></p><p>在距离美国总统大选只有几天时间之际,美国宣布制裁伊朗石油部长和一些相关实体,凸显两国之间的紧张局势持续加剧。</p><p><b>4、经济诺奖得主:投资者对重大市场崩溃的担忧已达到多年来最高水平</b></p><p>诺贝尔经济学奖得主、耶鲁大学教授罗伯特-席勒(Robert Shiller)敦促投资者采取谨慎的态度来投资股票市场。席勒表示:“没有人能预知未来,但鉴于在新冠疫情和政治两极分化中普遍缺乏投资者信心的情况,因此,一种消极的、自我实现的预言很可能会盛行。这凸显了在资产类别(包括安全的美国国债)中进行多元化投资以及减少在美股中风险敞口的重要性。”</p><p><b>5、美刺激协议希望渺茫 库德洛:民主党的大量议题无法得到总统认可</b></p><p>白宫经济顾问库德洛在周一美股午盘时接受采访称,财政刺激谈判“已经显然放缓了,但仍在进行中”;虽然双方距离达成协议更近一步,“但仍有一些重要的政策问题使我们分开,我们的团队认为,要实现目标,众议院方面必须做出更多妥协。”</p><p><b>6、一文读懂全球疫情:全球累计确诊逾4372万例 彭斯团队至少5人感染新冠</b></p><p>Worldometer网站实时统计数据显示,截至北京时间10月27日6时30分左右,全球累计确诊新冠肺炎病例43726564例,累计死亡病例1163437例,110个国家确诊病例超过万例。</p><p>全球疫情持续蔓延,美洲地区,彭斯团队至少5人感染新冠,受疫情影响,巴西女性就业率创30年来最低值;欧洲地区,法国疫情发展超出预期,西班牙意大利抗疫措施再升级;非洲地区,南非旅游部长希望12月前全面开放边界,埃及对感染新冠病毒隐情不报者进行严惩;亚洲地区,印度央行行长新冠检测呈阳性,韩国59人接种流感疫苗后死亡。</p><p><b>7、欧美疫情恶化,白宫竟然直接说放弃控制疫情</b></p><p>当地时间10月25日,白宫办公厅主任马克·梅多斯在接受美国有线电视新闻网采访时表示,美国“不会控制”新冠疫情。与此同时,该国各地新冠肺炎确诊病例激增,已有近22.5万人死于该病毒。</p><p>公司新闻</p><p><b>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>财报前瞻:料将连续四个季度亏损,737 Max复飞前景备受关注</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>公司(NYSE:BA)定于美国股市周三盘前公布该公司的第三季度业绩,目前这家飞机制造巨头仍旧受到商用喷气式飞机需求下降和波音737 Max飞机持续停飞的影响。</p><p><b>2、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2078501087\" target=\"_blank\"><b>德国软件巨头SAP公布财报后股价暴跌22% 或丢掉欧洲最大科技公司头衔</b></a><b></b></p><p>SAP周一公布了最新一季财报。德国企业软件巨头下调全年营收和利润目标,并调整了其所谓的“中期目标,”预计到2025年云计算营收将会下降,部分原因是在应对冠状病毒大流行持续时间的几个行业出现了“投资回报滞后”。</p><p><b>3、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2078550925\" target=\"_blank\"><b>蒂芙尼与路威酩轩并购交易获欧盟批准</b></a></p><p>美国奢侈品零售商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIF\">蒂芙尼</a>公司表示,其与法国奢侈品巨头路威酩轩价值160亿美元的并购交易已获得欧盟委员会批准,从而扫清了所有监管障碍。</p><p><b>4、</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2078650536\" target=\"_blank\"><b>蚂蚁集团IPO将融资345亿美元,超沙特阿美创历史之最</b></a></p><p>据报道,在确定了股票发行价之后,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>此次IPO(首次公开招股)将融资345亿美元,从而超越沙特阿美,成为迄今为止全球规模最大上市活动。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105128155","content_text":"摘要:美股周一低开低走收盘全线暴跌,道指跌幅为2.29%;佩洛西抨击特朗普政府的病毒检测现状,刺激计划谈判仍处僵局;欧美疫情恶化,白宫竟然直接说放弃控制疫情。海外市场1、单日确诊超8万,美股暴跌!道指跌超650点美股周一低开低走收盘全线暴跌,道指跌超650点,盘中一度跌超900点,因美国单日确诊病例创历史新高,新一轮刺激计划仍陷僵局。恐慌指数VIX涨17.82%,报32.46点。截至收盘,道指跌幅为2.29%;纳指跌幅为1.64%;标普500指数跌幅为1.86%。2、中国概念股周一收盘多数下跌 团车网重挫逾22%中国概念股周一收盘多数下跌,京东上涨0.09%报收81.41美元,拼多多上涨0.01%报收86.92美元,百度下跌0.73%报收132.95美元,阿里巴巴下跌0.98%报收306.87美元;云集上涨7.45%报收2.02美元;蘑菇街下跌7.46%报收2.73美元,人人网下跌7.79%报收4.85美元,微贷网下跌8.42%报收1.74美元,趣店下跌8.50%报收1.40美元。3、疫情加深导致全球股市受挫,金价收盘微幅上涨黄金期货价格周一收盘微幅上涨,六个交易日以来第五次走高,原因是随着全球股市因美国和欧洲的新冠肺炎感染病例而齐齐下挫,黄金价格找到了支撑。但与此同时,美元汇率的上涨则限制了金价的涨幅。4、疫情加深导致需求前景承压,美油收盘大跌逾3%!原油期货价格周一收盘大幅下跌,创下了三个星期以来的最低水平,原因是美国和欧洲的新冠肺炎感染病例继续激增,从而引发了投资者对原油需求前景的担忧。5、疫情加深导致欧股收跌近2%!科技股重挫逾7%,思爱普跌近22%欧洲股市周一收盘下跌,原因是整个欧洲大陆新冠病毒感染病例的激增拖累了市场情绪,而思爱普(SAP)的暴跌导致科技股集体走低。泛欧斯托克600指数下跌6.55点,报收于355.95点,跌幅为1.81%,所有行业板块和欧洲主要国家的股市均收盘走低。国际宏观1、佩洛西抨击特朗普政府的病毒检测现状,刺激计划谈判仍处僵局美国众议院议长南希-佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)周一对特朗普政府进行了猛烈抨击,因为在冠状病毒感染病例创下新高之际,白宫未能给美国人提供更多的救援和更及时全面的病毒检测。2、美联储官员:若没有额外刺激举措,经济将重现08年危机过后的疲软复苏美联储的官员们警告称,如果没有额外的刺激举措,美国经济将面临类似于2008年金融危机过后的那种疲软无力的复苏。当年,在实施了大规模的支出计划之后,美国政府推行长达数年的紧缩政策,这些政策拖累了美国经济的增长。3、美国制裁伊朗石油部长 两国紧张关系加剧在距离美国总统大选只有几天时间之际,美国宣布制裁伊朗石油部长和一些相关实体,凸显两国之间的紧张局势持续加剧。4、经济诺奖得主:投资者对重大市场崩溃的担忧已达到多年来最高水平诺贝尔经济学奖得主、耶鲁大学教授罗伯特-席勒(Robert Shiller)敦促投资者采取谨慎的态度来投资股票市场。席勒表示:“没有人能预知未来,但鉴于在新冠疫情和政治两极分化中普遍缺乏投资者信心的情况,因此,一种消极的、自我实现的预言很可能会盛行。这凸显了在资产类别(包括安全的美国国债)中进行多元化投资以及减少在美股中风险敞口的重要性。”5、美刺激协议希望渺茫 库德洛:民主党的大量议题无法得到总统认可白宫经济顾问库德洛在周一美股午盘时接受采访称,财政刺激谈判“已经显然放缓了,但仍在进行中”;虽然双方距离达成协议更近一步,“但仍有一些重要的政策问题使我们分开,我们的团队认为,要实现目标,众议院方面必须做出更多妥协。”6、一文读懂全球疫情:全球累计确诊逾4372万例 彭斯团队至少5人感染新冠Worldometer网站实时统计数据显示,截至北京时间10月27日6时30分左右,全球累计确诊新冠肺炎病例43726564例,累计死亡病例1163437例,110个国家确诊病例超过万例。全球疫情持续蔓延,美洲地区,彭斯团队至少5人感染新冠,受疫情影响,巴西女性就业率创30年来最低值;欧洲地区,法国疫情发展超出预期,西班牙意大利抗疫措施再升级;非洲地区,南非旅游部长希望12月前全面开放边界,埃及对感染新冠病毒隐情不报者进行严惩;亚洲地区,印度央行行长新冠检测呈阳性,韩国59人接种流感疫苗后死亡。7、欧美疫情恶化,白宫竟然直接说放弃控制疫情当地时间10月25日,白宫办公厅主任马克·梅多斯在接受美国有线电视新闻网采访时表示,美国“不会控制”新冠疫情。与此同时,该国各地新冠肺炎确诊病例激增,已有近22.5万人死于该病毒。公司新闻1、波音财报前瞻:料将连续四个季度亏损,737 Max复飞前景备受关注波音公司(NYSE:BA)定于美国股市周三盘前公布该公司的第三季度业绩,目前这家飞机制造巨头仍旧受到商用喷气式飞机需求下降和波音737 Max飞机持续停飞的影响。2、德国软件巨头SAP公布财报后股价暴跌22% 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