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Hjmnn
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IP属地:广东
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Hjmnn
2021-11-10
$Society Pass Inc(SOPA)$
待会3连砸
Hjmnn
2021-02-12
$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$
下车了
Hjmnn
2021-03-10
$游戏驿站(GME)$
看看人家德国兄弟的觉悟💎✋🏻
Hjmnn
2021-11-03
$安飞士(CAR)$
这俩像不像
Hjmnn
2021-03-11
$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$
大家拿住,这只股不是单纯的价值股,这是wsb股,别听那些价值分析,没意义
Hjmnn
2021-03-10
$游戏驿站(GME)$
做空的兄弟自求多福吧
Hjmnn
2021-03-19
$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$
这公司不值百亿市值
Hjmnn
2021-03-10
$游戏驿站(GME)$
等到400多的时候肯定有一波小回落,因为之前人解套了,到时候大家拿住呀💎🙌🏻
Hjmnn
2021-09-29
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
空仓了,今晚会继续跌
Hjmnn
2021-02-24
$小米集团-W(01810)$
我都在吃💩了,你还往💩里下毒
Hjmnn
2021-10-30
题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂,做不到的原因不在于人性问题,更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的,更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等,这些没人能成为先知,稍微一个环节出错,特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff,概念不错,但是未来如何,谁知道
股票投资世界的简单与复杂
Hjmnn
2021-11-12
如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股,千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心]
$小白买买(HX)$
$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$
$中北能(CNEY)$
Hjmnn
2021-10-30
$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$
拿了9.5的期权,最后还是平仓了,这种非常接近行权价的,而且一天上下几十点,风险太大,说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去,不赚倒亏
Hjmnn
2021-10-16
$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$
Fda宣布延期了[捂脸]
Hjmnn
2021-03-11
$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$
甘里良,骗炮啊,我盘前20%入的
Hjmnn
2021-03-12
$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$
以后盘前暴涨,一律视为骗炮。
Hjmnn
2021-11-08
$中北能(CNEY)$
又一个和信贷套路
Hjmnn
2021-11-04
$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$
😅
Hjmnn
2021-11-03
$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$
差点全仓梭哈进去
Hjmnn
2021-03-12
$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$
还好没有买入,别看他开盘涨这么多,你要是60买入就接盘了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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14:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"股票投资世界的简单与复杂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160331083","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"股票投资世界,是一个既简单又复杂的世界。\n说简单,是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的:长期从整体看,公司发展得好,股票也自然走得好;公司发展得差,股票也自然走得差。\n说复杂,是股票投资在投资标","content":"<p>股票投资世界,是一个既简单又复杂的世界。</p>\n<p>说简单,是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的:长期从整体看,公司发展得好,股票也自然走得好;公司发展得差,股票也自然走得差。</p>\n<p><b>说复杂,是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上,又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化,最终演化成:</b></p>\n<p>1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重,而对长期因素给予了太低的权重,毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了;</p>\n<p>2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人(杀跌),才存活了下来;那些逆向胆大的古猿人,则都早早死掉了,连后代都没有留下来。</p>\n<p>回到投资和我们的工作,抛开纷繁复杂的表象,实际只需要做两件事情:</p>\n<p><b>1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司;</b></p>\n<p><b>2、找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有。</b></p>\n<p><b>识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司</b></p>\n<p>这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。</p>\n<p>从实践中看,公司的增长,基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动,公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的,且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。</p>\n<p>借用牛顿第一定律的表述:任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态,直到长期施加较大的外力,迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化,等在公司长期业绩上体现出来,也是2~3年之后的事情了。</p>\n<p><b>找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有</b></p>\n<p>找机会买入,买入后始终持有,是一个相对简单的策略,不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。</p>\n<p>在中国股市的绝大部分时间,完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司,由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素,始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司,作为超一线品种,市场给的估值水平,一直低于众多其他公司。</p>\n<p>但这种情况,在2019~2020年,有了很大的变化:好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速,估值持续提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f618c607ac3a72b463c86d3223c32e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>变化的原因有很多,但主要有两个:</p>\n<p><b>1、外资参与不断加深。</b>外资携长期视野和长期资金,以国外几十年的发展经验,拿到中国股市,相当于开了几十年的天眼。</p>\n<p>事物内在的发展规律都是类似的,中国公司的发展道路,也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。</p>\n<p>从外资角度来看,以二线公司的市盈率,买入中国一线公司,坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会,是非常好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。</b>好公司股价的上涨,吸引了更大的资金买入,市场在不断自我强化。</p>\n<p>现在这个时间点,在好公司估值较高的情况下,该如何投资,对任何一个市场参与者而言,都是一个较大的考验。</p>\n<p>可能的选择有以下几个:</p>\n<p><b>1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。</b>通过好公司业绩的持续增长,来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利,估值不变,至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。</p>\n<p>如果不顺利,碰到短期业绩下滑,在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下,会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司,年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长,135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中,在股价跌去2/3之后,现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长,PEG估值法视角下,今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。</p>\n<p><b>2、退而求其次,选择性价比更高的二线品种。</b></p>\n<p>2021年上半年,这类“性价比更高的二线品种”,的确走势很好,有多个都上涨了50%。</p>\n<p>“性价比更高的二线品种”,短期内是对组合有帮助的,长期由于路径依赖,会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。</p>\n<p>如果大家的持仓只有1年,我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”,但考虑到大家都是长期持有,这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的,立足长远才能获得长期收获。</p>\n<p><b>3、暂时轻仓等待。</b></p>\n<p>在好公司估值较高时,暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。</p>\n<p>毕竟茅指数在2019年1月~2021年6月短短2.5年时间,就上涨了3.3倍,大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅,一部分是估值修复,另一部分则是泡沫。</p>\n<p>在存在泡沫的情况下,如果上涨,不一定能上涨很多;一旦有回调,就会是非常大的回调。</p>\n<p>当然,任何判断都是有风险的,万一判断错了,在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累,相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司,这样将来组合的风险更低。</p>\n<p><b>总之,识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司,找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有,这两件事情,会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。</b></p>\n<p>最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略:用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。</p>\n<p>1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后,只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出,即便估值过高,也保留部分仓位,最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进,在时间维度上分散风险;</p>\n<p>2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票,在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合,该投资组合能够规避常见的风险,并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益,进而实现长期收益率目标;</p>\n<p>3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立,使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚,能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股票投资世界的简单与复杂\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-29 14:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>股票投资世界,是一个既简单又复杂的世界。</p>\n<p>说简单,是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的:长期从整体看,公司发展得好,股票也自然走得好;公司发展得差,股票也自然走得差。</p>\n<p><b>说复杂,是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上,又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化,最终演化成:</b></p>\n<p>1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重,而对长期因素给予了太低的权重,毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了;</p>\n<p>2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人(杀跌),才存活了下来;那些逆向胆大的古猿人,则都早早死掉了,连后代都没有留下来。</p>\n<p>回到投资和我们的工作,抛开纷繁复杂的表象,实际只需要做两件事情:</p>\n<p><b>1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司;</b></p>\n<p><b>2、找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有。</b></p>\n<p><b>识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司</b></p>\n<p>这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。</p>\n<p>从实践中看,公司的增长,基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动,公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的,且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。</p>\n<p>借用牛顿第一定律的表述:任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态,直到长期施加较大的外力,迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化,等在公司长期业绩上体现出来,也是2~3年之后的事情了。</p>\n<p><b>找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有</b></p>\n<p>找机会买入,买入后始终持有,是一个相对简单的策略,不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。</p>\n<p>在中国股市的绝大部分时间,完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司,由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素,始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司,作为超一线品种,市场给的估值水平,一直低于众多其他公司。</p>\n<p>但这种情况,在2019~2020年,有了很大的变化:好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速,估值持续提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f618c607ac3a72b463c86d3223c32e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>变化的原因有很多,但主要有两个:</p>\n<p><b>1、外资参与不断加深。</b>外资携长期视野和长期资金,以国外几十年的发展经验,拿到中国股市,相当于开了几十年的天眼。</p>\n<p>事物内在的发展规律都是类似的,中国公司的发展道路,也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。</p>\n<p>从外资角度来看,以二线公司的市盈率,买入中国一线公司,坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会,是非常好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。</b>好公司股价的上涨,吸引了更大的资金买入,市场在不断自我强化。</p>\n<p>现在这个时间点,在好公司估值较高的情况下,该如何投资,对任何一个市场参与者而言,都是一个较大的考验。</p>\n<p>可能的选择有以下几个:</p>\n<p><b>1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。</b>通过好公司业绩的持续增长,来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利,估值不变,至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。</p>\n<p>如果不顺利,碰到短期业绩下滑,在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下,会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司,年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长,135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中,在股价跌去2/3之后,现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长,PEG估值法视角下,今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。</p>\n<p><b>2、退而求其次,选择性价比更高的二线品种。</b></p>\n<p>2021年上半年,这类“性价比更高的二线品种”,的确走势很好,有多个都上涨了50%。</p>\n<p>“性价比更高的二线品种”,短期内是对组合有帮助的,长期由于路径依赖,会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。</p>\n<p>如果大家的持仓只有1年,我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”,但考虑到大家都是长期持有,这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的,立足长远才能获得长期收获。</p>\n<p><b>3、暂时轻仓等待。</b></p>\n<p>在好公司估值较高时,暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。</p>\n<p>毕竟茅指数在2019年1月~2021年6月短短2.5年时间,就上涨了3.3倍,大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅,一部分是估值修复,另一部分则是泡沫。</p>\n<p>在存在泡沫的情况下,如果上涨,不一定能上涨很多;一旦有回调,就会是非常大的回调。</p>\n<p>当然,任何判断都是有风险的,万一判断错了,在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累,相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司,这样将来组合的风险更低。</p>\n<p><b>总之,识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司,找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有,这两件事情,会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。</b></p>\n<p>最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略:用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。</p>\n<p>1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后,只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出,即便估值过高,也保留部分仓位,最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进,在时间维度上分散风险;</p>\n<p>2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票,在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合,该投资组合能够规避常见的风险,并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益,进而实现长期收益率目标;</p>\n<p>3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立,使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚,能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5bec9a0d94ae609599ec4f96b9141c6","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160331083","content_text":"股票投资世界,是一个既简单又复杂的世界。\n说简单,是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的:长期从整体看,公司发展得好,股票也自然走得好;公司发展得差,股票也自然走得差。\n说复杂,是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上,又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化,最终演化成:\n1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重,而对长期因素给予了太低的权重,毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了;\n2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人(杀跌),才存活了下来;那些逆向胆大的古猿人,则都早早死掉了,连后代都没有留下来。\n回到投资和我们的工作,抛开纷繁复杂的表象,实际只需要做两件事情:\n1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司;\n2、找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有。\n识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司\n这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。\n从实践中看,公司的增长,基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动,公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的,且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。\n借用牛顿第一定律的表述:任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态,直到长期施加较大的外力,迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化,等在公司长期业绩上体现出来,也是2~3年之后的事情了。\n找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有\n找机会买入,买入后始终持有,是一个相对简单的策略,不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。\n在中国股市的绝大部分时间,完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司,由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素,始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司,作为超一线品种,市场给的估值水平,一直低于众多其他公司。\n但这种情况,在2019~2020年,有了很大的变化:好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速,估值持续提高。\n\n变化的原因有很多,但主要有两个:\n1、外资参与不断加深。外资携长期视野和长期资金,以国外几十年的发展经验,拿到中国股市,相当于开了几十年的天眼。\n事物内在的发展规律都是类似的,中国公司的发展道路,也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。\n从外资角度来看,以二线公司的市盈率,买入中国一线公司,坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会,是非常好的选择。\n2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。好公司股价的上涨,吸引了更大的资金买入,市场在不断自我强化。\n现在这个时间点,在好公司估值较高的情况下,该如何投资,对任何一个市场参与者而言,都是一个较大的考验。\n可能的选择有以下几个:\n1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。通过好公司业绩的持续增长,来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利,估值不变,至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。\n如果不顺利,碰到短期业绩下滑,在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下,会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司,年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长,135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中,在股价跌去2/3之后,现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长,PEG估值法视角下,今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。\n2、退而求其次,选择性价比更高的二线品种。\n2021年上半年,这类“性价比更高的二线品种”,的确走势很好,有多个都上涨了50%。\n“性价比更高的二线品种”,短期内是对组合有帮助的,长期由于路径依赖,会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。\n如果大家的持仓只有1年,我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”,但考虑到大家都是长期持有,这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的,立足长远才能获得长期收获。\n3、暂时轻仓等待。\n在好公司估值较高时,暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。\n毕竟茅指数在2019年1月~2021年6月短短2.5年时间,就上涨了3.3倍,大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅,一部分是估值修复,另一部分则是泡沫。\n在存在泡沫的情况下,如果上涨,不一定能上涨很多;一旦有回调,就会是非常大的回调。\n当然,任何判断都是有风险的,万一判断错了,在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累,相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司,这样将来组合的风险更低。\n总之,识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司,找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有,这两件事情,会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。\n最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略:用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。\n1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后,只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出,即便估值过高,也保留部分仓位,最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进,在时间维度上分散风险;\n2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票,在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合,该投资组合能够规避常见的风险,并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益,进而实现长期收益率目标;\n3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立,使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚,能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857672921,"gmtCreate":1635524527421,"gmtModify":1635524527421,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>拿了9.5的期权,最后还是平仓了,这种非常接近行权价的,而且一天上下几十点,风险太大,说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去,不赚倒亏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>拿了9.5的期权,最后还是平仓了,这种非常接近行权价的,而且一天上下几十点,风险太大,说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去,不赚倒亏","text":"$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$拿了9.5的期权,最后还是平仓了,这种非常接近行权价的,而且一天上下几十点,风险太大,说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去,不赚倒亏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857672921","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824491359,"gmtCreate":1634344431681,"gmtModify":1634344431681,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVDL\">$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$</a>Fda宣布延期了[捂脸] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVDL\">$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$</a>Fda宣布延期了[捂脸] ","text":"$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$Fda宣布延期了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824491359","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3692,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862523846,"gmtCreate":1632892570690,"gmtModify":1632892570690,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>空仓了,今晚会继续跌","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>空仓了,今晚会继续跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>空仓了,今晚会继续跌","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$空仓了,今晚会继续跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862523846","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363513905,"gmtCreate":1614152387507,"gmtModify":1614152387507,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>我都在吃💩了,你还往💩里下毒","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>我都在吃💩了,你还往💩里下毒","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$我都在吃💩了,你还往💩里下毒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363513905","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857740469,"gmtCreate":1635563448790,"gmtModify":1635565752237,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂,做不到的原因不在于人性问题,更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的,更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等,这些没人能成为先知,稍微一个环节出错,特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff,概念不错,但是未来如何,谁知道","listText":"题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂,做不到的原因不在于人性问题,更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的,更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等,这些没人能成为先知,稍微一个环节出错,特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff,概念不错,但是未来如何,谁知道","text":"题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂,做不到的原因不在于人性问题,更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的,更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等,这些没人能成为先知,稍微一个环节出错,特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff,概念不错,但是未来如何,谁知道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857740469","repostId":"1160331083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1160331083","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌,包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域,关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1635490569,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160331083?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 14:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"股票投资世界的简单与复杂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160331083","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"股票投资世界,是一个既简单又复杂的世界。\n说简单,是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的:长期从整体看,公司发展得好,股票也自然走得好;公司发展得差,股票也自然走得差。\n说复杂,是股票投资在投资标","content":"<p>股票投资世界,是一个既简单又复杂的世界。</p>\n<p>说简单,是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的:长期从整体看,公司发展得好,股票也自然走得好;公司发展得差,股票也自然走得差。</p>\n<p><b>说复杂,是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上,又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化,最终演化成:</b></p>\n<p>1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重,而对长期因素给予了太低的权重,毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了;</p>\n<p>2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人(杀跌),才存活了下来;那些逆向胆大的古猿人,则都早早死掉了,连后代都没有留下来。</p>\n<p>回到投资和我们的工作,抛开纷繁复杂的表象,实际只需要做两件事情:</p>\n<p><b>1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司;</b></p>\n<p><b>2、找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有。</b></p>\n<p><b>识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司</b></p>\n<p>这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。</p>\n<p>从实践中看,公司的增长,基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动,公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的,且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。</p>\n<p>借用牛顿第一定律的表述:任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态,直到长期施加较大的外力,迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化,等在公司长期业绩上体现出来,也是2~3年之后的事情了。</p>\n<p><b>找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有</b></p>\n<p>找机会买入,买入后始终持有,是一个相对简单的策略,不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。</p>\n<p>在中国股市的绝大部分时间,完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司,由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素,始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司,作为超一线品种,市场给的估值水平,一直低于众多其他公司。</p>\n<p>但这种情况,在2019~2020年,有了很大的变化:好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速,估值持续提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f618c607ac3a72b463c86d3223c32e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>变化的原因有很多,但主要有两个:</p>\n<p><b>1、外资参与不断加深。</b>外资携长期视野和长期资金,以国外几十年的发展经验,拿到中国股市,相当于开了几十年的天眼。</p>\n<p>事物内在的发展规律都是类似的,中国公司的发展道路,也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。</p>\n<p>从外资角度来看,以二线公司的市盈率,买入中国一线公司,坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会,是非常好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。</b>好公司股价的上涨,吸引了更大的资金买入,市场在不断自我强化。</p>\n<p>现在这个时间点,在好公司估值较高的情况下,该如何投资,对任何一个市场参与者而言,都是一个较大的考验。</p>\n<p>可能的选择有以下几个:</p>\n<p><b>1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。</b>通过好公司业绩的持续增长,来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利,估值不变,至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。</p>\n<p>如果不顺利,碰到短期业绩下滑,在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下,会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司,年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长,135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中,在股价跌去2/3之后,现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长,PEG估值法视角下,今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。</p>\n<p><b>2、退而求其次,选择性价比更高的二线品种。</b></p>\n<p>2021年上半年,这类“性价比更高的二线品种”,的确走势很好,有多个都上涨了50%。</p>\n<p>“性价比更高的二线品种”,短期内是对组合有帮助的,长期由于路径依赖,会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。</p>\n<p>如果大家的持仓只有1年,我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”,但考虑到大家都是长期持有,这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的,立足长远才能获得长期收获。</p>\n<p><b>3、暂时轻仓等待。</b></p>\n<p>在好公司估值较高时,暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。</p>\n<p>毕竟茅指数在2019年1月~2021年6月短短2.5年时间,就上涨了3.3倍,大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅,一部分是估值修复,另一部分则是泡沫。</p>\n<p>在存在泡沫的情况下,如果上涨,不一定能上涨很多;一旦有回调,就会是非常大的回调。</p>\n<p>当然,任何判断都是有风险的,万一判断错了,在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累,相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司,这样将来组合的风险更低。</p>\n<p><b>总之,识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司,找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有,这两件事情,会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。</b></p>\n<p>最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略:用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。</p>\n<p>1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后,只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出,即便估值过高,也保留部分仓位,最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进,在时间维度上分散风险;</p>\n<p>2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票,在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合,该投资组合能够规避常见的风险,并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益,进而实现长期收益率目标;</p>\n<p>3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立,使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚,能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股票投资世界的简单与复杂</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股票投资世界的简单与复杂\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-29 14:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>股票投资世界,是一个既简单又复杂的世界。</p>\n<p>说简单,是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的:长期从整体看,公司发展得好,股票也自然走得好;公司发展得差,股票也自然走得差。</p>\n<p><b>说复杂,是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上,又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化,最终演化成:</b></p>\n<p>1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重,而对长期因素给予了太低的权重,毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了;</p>\n<p>2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人(杀跌),才存活了下来;那些逆向胆大的古猿人,则都早早死掉了,连后代都没有留下来。</p>\n<p>回到投资和我们的工作,抛开纷繁复杂的表象,实际只需要做两件事情:</p>\n<p><b>1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司;</b></p>\n<p><b>2、找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有。</b></p>\n<p><b>识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司</b></p>\n<p>这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。</p>\n<p>从实践中看,公司的增长,基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动,公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的,且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。</p>\n<p>借用牛顿第一定律的表述:任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态,直到长期施加较大的外力,迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化,等在公司长期业绩上体现出来,也是2~3年之后的事情了。</p>\n<p><b>找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有</b></p>\n<p>找机会买入,买入后始终持有,是一个相对简单的策略,不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。</p>\n<p>在中国股市的绝大部分时间,完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司,由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素,始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司,作为超一线品种,市场给的估值水平,一直低于众多其他公司。</p>\n<p>但这种情况,在2019~2020年,有了很大的变化:好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速,估值持续提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f618c607ac3a72b463c86d3223c32e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>变化的原因有很多,但主要有两个:</p>\n<p><b>1、外资参与不断加深。</b>外资携长期视野和长期资金,以国外几十年的发展经验,拿到中国股市,相当于开了几十年的天眼。</p>\n<p>事物内在的发展规律都是类似的,中国公司的发展道路,也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。</p>\n<p>从外资角度来看,以二线公司的市盈率,买入中国一线公司,坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会,是非常好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。</b>好公司股价的上涨,吸引了更大的资金买入,市场在不断自我强化。</p>\n<p>现在这个时间点,在好公司估值较高的情况下,该如何投资,对任何一个市场参与者而言,都是一个较大的考验。</p>\n<p>可能的选择有以下几个:</p>\n<p><b>1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。</b>通过好公司业绩的持续增长,来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利,估值不变,至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。</p>\n<p>如果不顺利,碰到短期业绩下滑,在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下,会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司,年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长,135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中,在股价跌去2/3之后,现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长,PEG估值法视角下,今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。</p>\n<p><b>2、退而求其次,选择性价比更高的二线品种。</b></p>\n<p>2021年上半年,这类“性价比更高的二线品种”,的确走势很好,有多个都上涨了50%。</p>\n<p>“性价比更高的二线品种”,短期内是对组合有帮助的,长期由于路径依赖,会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。</p>\n<p>如果大家的持仓只有1年,我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”,但考虑到大家都是长期持有,这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的,立足长远才能获得长期收获。</p>\n<p><b>3、暂时轻仓等待。</b></p>\n<p>在好公司估值较高时,暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。</p>\n<p>毕竟茅指数在2019年1月~2021年6月短短2.5年时间,就上涨了3.3倍,大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅,一部分是估值修复,另一部分则是泡沫。</p>\n<p>在存在泡沫的情况下,如果上涨,不一定能上涨很多;一旦有回调,就会是非常大的回调。</p>\n<p>当然,任何判断都是有风险的,万一判断错了,在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累,相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司,这样将来组合的风险更低。</p>\n<p><b>总之,识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司,找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有,这两件事情,会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。</b></p>\n<p>最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略:用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。</p>\n<p>1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后,只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出,即便估值过高,也保留部分仓位,最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进,在时间维度上分散风险;</p>\n<p>2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票,在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合,该投资组合能够规避常见的风险,并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益,进而实现长期收益率目标;</p>\n<p>3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立,使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚,能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5bec9a0d94ae609599ec4f96b9141c6","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160331083","content_text":"股票投资世界,是一个既简单又复杂的世界。\n说简单,是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的:长期从整体看,公司发展得好,股票也自然走得好;公司发展得差,股票也自然走得差。\n说复杂,是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上,又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化,最终演化成:\n1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重,而对长期因素给予了太低的权重,毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了;\n2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人(杀跌),才存活了下来;那些逆向胆大的古猿人,则都早早死掉了,连后代都没有留下来。\n回到投资和我们的工作,抛开纷繁复杂的表象,实际只需要做两件事情:\n1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司;\n2、找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有。\n识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司\n这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。\n从实践中看,公司的增长,基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动,公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的,且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。\n借用牛顿第一定律的表述:任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态,直到长期施加较大的外力,迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化,等在公司长期业绩上体现出来,也是2~3年之后的事情了。\n找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有\n找机会买入,买入后始终持有,是一个相对简单的策略,不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。\n在中国股市的绝大部分时间,完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司,由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素,始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司,作为超一线品种,市场给的估值水平,一直低于众多其他公司。\n但这种情况,在2019~2020年,有了很大的变化:好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速,估值持续提高。\n\n变化的原因有很多,但主要有两个:\n1、外资参与不断加深。外资携长期视野和长期资金,以国外几十年的发展经验,拿到中国股市,相当于开了几十年的天眼。\n事物内在的发展规律都是类似的,中国公司的发展道路,也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。\n从外资角度来看,以二线公司的市盈率,买入中国一线公司,坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会,是非常好的选择。\n2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。好公司股价的上涨,吸引了更大的资金买入,市场在不断自我强化。\n现在这个时间点,在好公司估值较高的情况下,该如何投资,对任何一个市场参与者而言,都是一个较大的考验。\n可能的选择有以下几个:\n1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。通过好公司业绩的持续增长,来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利,估值不变,至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。\n如果不顺利,碰到短期业绩下滑,在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下,会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司,年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长,135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中,在股价跌去2/3之后,现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长,PEG估值法视角下,今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。\n2、退而求其次,选择性价比更高的二线品种。\n2021年上半年,这类“性价比更高的二线品种”,的确走势很好,有多个都上涨了50%。\n“性价比更高的二线品种”,短期内是对组合有帮助的,长期由于路径依赖,会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。\n如果大家的持仓只有1年,我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”,但考虑到大家都是长期持有,这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的,立足长远才能获得长期收获。\n3、暂时轻仓等待。\n在好公司估值较高时,暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。\n毕竟茅指数在2019年1月~2021年6月短短2.5年时间,就上涨了3.3倍,大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅,一部分是估值修复,另一部分则是泡沫。\n在存在泡沫的情况下,如果上涨,不一定能上涨很多;一旦有回调,就会是非常大的回调。\n当然,任何判断都是有风险的,万一判断错了,在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累,相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司,这样将来组合的风险更低。\n总之,识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司,找一个合适的机会买入,买入后就始终持有,这两件事情,会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。\n最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略:用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。\n1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后,只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出,即便估值过高,也保留部分仓位,最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进,在时间维度上分散风险;\n2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票,在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合,该投资组合能够规避常见的风险,并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益,进而实现长期收益率目标;\n3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立,使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚,能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879885407,"gmtCreate":1636703391609,"gmtModify":1636703391609,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股,千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">$小白买买(HX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNEY\">$中北能(CNEY)$</a>","listText":"如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股,千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">$小白买买(HX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNEY\">$中北能(CNEY)$</a>","text":"如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股,千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心] $小白买买(HX)$$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$$中北能(CNEY)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dce8b8fe3f4f90bade389f1ee083581","width":"1170","height":"2532"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ed0d8ad49920aaa6ba6b486853cb41","width":"1170","height":"2532"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ca49b80320d1178646c1f73b4afc44","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879885407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857672921,"gmtCreate":1635524527421,"gmtModify":1635524527421,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>拿了9.5的期权,最后还是平仓了,这种非常接近行权价的,而且一天上下几十点,风险太大,说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去,不赚倒亏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>拿了9.5的期权,最后还是平仓了,这种非常接近行权价的,而且一天上下几十点,风险太大,说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去,不赚倒亏","text":"$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$拿了9.5的期权,最后还是平仓了,这种非常接近行权价的,而且一天上下几十点,风险太大,说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去,不赚倒亏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857672921","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824491359,"gmtCreate":1634344431681,"gmtModify":1634344431681,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVDL\">$Avadel Pharmaceuticals 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