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爱雅额
2023-12-19
老巴买入西方石油是着眼于未来回报率不低于10%的长期确定性。第一,投资期限,老巴的重仓股一般投资期限在10年以上,西方石油储量可供开采二十年以上,而且是在不扩大资本开支的前提下。这种长期投资看重的是未来现金流而不是短期利润增速。
$西方石油(OXY)$
爱雅额
2023-09-26
$运鸿CTI(YHGJ)$
运鸿绿色CTI还将利用其在环保材料领域的技术积累与经验涉足医疗器械和汽车零部件领域,从而提高公司在全球环保材料领域中的战略生态段位,并有望开辟全降解材料心脏支架等系列产品生产线。运鸿绿色CTI这一资本举措及其在生态环保领域的新布局,将推动我国环保产业可持续发展,并为生态环境、绿色产业的创新和全球环境治理作出积极贡献
爱雅额
2023-11-20
$蔚来(NIO)$
今天换电效率已经不具备优势,换电是蔚来的沉没成本,经济学上理性人的选择是放弃换电。我常去的蔚来空间,大约十几位工作人员为车主服务,我观察多数无所事事,企业如果迟迟不盈利这种非利润项目何以维继?换句话说,这个模式在当下这个阶段,商业上不可持续。电动车的终局越来越清晰,拥有技术优势和成本优势的少数几家能跑出来,新势力们大多要面对被收购或破产的命运。或许十年后,最终站在巅峰的那家新能力车企有资本像蔚来这么玩。
爱雅额
04-01
$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$
的高溢价是事实,但做空机构在大饼刚刚突破新高的位置做空微策,我不认为是明智之举。大饼在此位置整理后,大概率会进入3-5周的一波主升浪上涨,这个位置开空,既不是最佳空间,也不是最佳时间。大幅震荡再所难免,鹿死谁手结果未知,在大饼破10w刀之前,我不会轻易卖出微策,我没有任何杠杆,不惧波动,如果最终错了,我甘愿买单。大饼现在的问题,是供给枯竭,涨跌概率,由此而知!
爱雅额
04-12
我用了很多年淘宝,中途转向拼多多
$拼多多(PDD)$
,因为价格便宜点,现在回淘宝
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
,发现拼多多不便宜了 最终鹿死谁手不好说,拼多多的团队战斗力比较猛,阿里没有马云带队士气有点不足
爱雅额
01-22
不要人云亦云,拼多多商业模式是真的比阿里
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
,京东
$京东(JD)$
好,如果只是因为低端假货做上去的,那就不会受资本追捧;你研究下多多的人员数量和营收就明白了;单一个“假货”能干出半个江山?多多走的是白牌集中工厂供应链的模式,是介于京东的自营和阿里的全开放之间的一个商业模式。
$拼多多(PDD)$
爱雅额
2023-11-14
$礼来(LLY)$
减肥药。减肥药方面,上周五老M那边传来一个利好,医药巨头礼来公司的一款产品获得了通过,据说72周减重超过40斤。减肥药在上个月A股其实已经走过一波行情,上周五有重新走强的迹象,会不会因为这个消息走第二波 ,今天也是可以留意的。
爱雅额
06-03
$小米集团-W(01810)$
按照雷军的德行,只会低价回购,不会高价回购!这个时候回购,说明暴跌要来了,一定有散户看不到对问题!小米的历史回购期都在下跌,这次会例外吗?不会
爱雅额
01-16
amd市盈没看上去这么离谱,但是依然很离谱,巅峰amd一年也就50亿美元,那时候amd赶上了台积电红利,英伟达用三星的垃圾工艺,导致amd第一次在显卡上与英伟达不分上下,吓得英伟达的30系显卡定了史无前例的低价,后来挖矿涨价是另外一回事,现在英伟达重新用了台积电,a卡和n卡的差距马上就出来了,就算amd重回巅峰,一年50亿,市盈率也高达46还是高,要知道amd平时的pe也就15-20左右,毕竟资本回报率在那摆着呢
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
爱雅额
2023-11-26
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来这波压力老大了。他现在就两个选择,要么第一,继续找中东大哥融资,现在人家都说他是新型的庞氏。要么他就在国内的朋友圈看一看有谁愿意并购他的,他这资金撑不过一年的,而且明年整车厂的竞争会更大,所以他真的很难,很严峻。今天热搜不是还有吗?员工自费买车还是被裁了,可想而知压力有多大。而且你看现在车展上同样是新势力,小鹏X91出来38万多,很有可能就是爆款,市场现在反馈很好,然后包括理想的那纯电车型,一个多小时订单已经超过1万辆了,之前的那个阿维塔也是,要么华为问界怎么样?你看,我觉得蔚来已经远远的被甩在后面了。而且未来不是之前投资了长安的阿维塔吗?现在估计,大概率他已经把自己的股份卖掉了,就为了融资吗?但是未来也很难倒啊,毕竟那个江淮那边那么大的一个产业集群对,养那么多人?所以说下个狠话,要么他是有继续有大哥给钱,要么就是被大哥收了,不信你看着
爱雅额
01-10
知道
$英伟达(NVDA)$
, 以前真没注意它的结构。我想你说的是从108.05起来的结构。看月线,感觉像在3中。不过, 可能要注意, 看周线,小概率可能从502.57开始的调整就没结束。整体,看30周线就ok。基本能解决所有问题
爱雅额
01-13
瑞幸最近跌很多,估值好像也很便宜了,看富途、雪球好像市值不到64亿美金。提醒一下,瑞幸总股本是3.16亿股,大部分券商软件没把优先股算进去。今天23价格,实际市值有 73亿美金。
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
爱雅额
07-11
$苹果(AAPL)$
什么是好的商业模式?苹果放弃了10年的造车计划,证明其看到新能源车背后的实质逻辑,如同高手下棋,走完几步就能看出结局,虽然努力,奈何人不胜天,即使花费了几百亿造车,一切还是太晚了。一个人的精力是有限的,一个企业的精力也是有限的。重大的前瞻性布局起码比行业对手早且快速落地,而苹果却错失良机。
爱雅额
03-26
产业选股的逻辑:要找那个最正宗的,弹性也来源于正宗性。什么叫正宗?1,有人要炒铜缆的,就要盯着安费诺,其它都是废材,看都不用看。2,譬如你看好HBM
$HudBay Minerals Inc(HBM)$
,那就盯着美光,顺着美光,找唯一供应商,没有,就死磕美光。3,光模块,盯销量最大的那个客户,英伟达
$英伟达(NVDA)$
和AWS在光模块的需求是级差
$美光科技(MU)$
爱雅额
01-05
$英伟达(NVDA)$
眼瞅着英伟达发财,其他芯片企业坐不住了。要把AIPC的蛋糕做大。
爱雅额
03-01
抖音电商今年战略全面抄拼多多
$拼多多(PDD)$
是很对的,就看做到什么程度了。战略定方向是最难的,执行反而只是考验组织结构。要是真能实现淘宝的品牌商品+拼多多的极致低价白牌商品的双重体验,那抖音会是电商的终局一号位。是黄铮五年前所说的“disney+Costco”。
爱雅额
2023-12-25
蔚来全栈自研,包括智能芯片及碳化硅芯片,为蔚来感到自豪的同时,有一个小小的疑问:需要多少量才能让芯片研发业务做到盈亏平衡?电池业务也有同样的困惑。
$蔚来(NIO)$
$蔚来(NIO)$
爱雅额
2023-10-24
为什么这次在一波黑小米的大潮中,央媒体为小米站台?是因为小米符合国家的发展大方向。制造业是中国根基。中国制造业面临产能过剩、成本上升、产线外移等问题。制造业升级、智能制造是解决之道。小米一面自研智能生产线,并输出给产业链,提升国内制造业自动化水平;一面以庞大的生态链产品,向国外开疆拓土,在国外树立中国品牌,打造中国品牌形象。小米是中国消费电子品牌出海最成功的企业。小米正是国内制造业发展的模板
$小米集团-W(01810)$
爱雅额
2023-11-07
$蔚来(NIO)$
其实在同时起来的三个造车新势力里面蔚来是运气和条件最好的,开始拿到的投资多,起点高,抢占了先机。可惜有钱了就开始不务正业了,我当时开玩笑说感觉蔚来没把心思放在造车上,相比起来隔壁李想
$理想汽车(LI)$
就很务实,至少是在踏踏实实的造车
爱雅额
03-27
蔚来可是和地产是有渊源的 蔚来的二号人物,可能是蔚来不行的第一大功臣秦就是地产背景出来的,这人就是一副精英做派,从不吝啬软文投入,新势力里面,营销费用蔚来一直是最豪的,但是效果最横的一直是理想。蔚来有个极其小资的管理层,这种管理层在风口红利时占尽融资优势,在竞争白热化时原形毕露,如同当年杂牌国军,溃不成军。
$蔚来(NIO)$
$蔚来(NIO.SI)$
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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拼多多不要利润也要争市场份额了,阿里拿命来","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ee0e3acc6ff3131396a1a80942fb007","width":"291","height":"311"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343034883068272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4104748128179940","authorId":"4104748128179940","name":"保险王丁","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4104748128179940","authorIdStr":"4104748128179940"},"content":"拼夕夕这种商业模式不可能长久。","text":"拼夕夕这种商业模式不可能长久。","html":"拼夕夕这种商业模式不可能长久。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343032028520688,"gmtCreate":1724769614783,"gmtModify":1724769616758,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 巴菲特对消费电子是不太熟悉的 段原来就是搞步步高,对这个行业的理解比巴菲特深刻也是很有可能的,段的基金80%以上是苹果,比巴菲特还重仓","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 巴菲特对消费电子是不太熟悉的 段原来就是搞步步高,对这个行业的理解比巴菲特深刻也是很有可能的,段的基金80%以上是苹果,比巴菲特还重仓","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 巴菲特对消费电子是不太熟悉的 段原来就是搞步步高,对这个行业的理解比巴菲特深刻也是很有可能的,段的基金80%以上是苹果,比巴菲特还重仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343032028520688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343029414633840,"gmtCreate":1724768912991,"gmtModify":1724768915027,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 巴菲特不买一股微软,即使跟比尔盖茨出双入对也不买一股,交朋友和做生意完全是界限分明,商业机会多的是失去一个并不可惜,交到了朋友又不至于被不懂的领域所欺骗,这种商业行为还不如直接捐点。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 巴菲特不买一股微软,即使跟比尔盖茨出双入对也不买一股,交朋友和做生意完全是界限分明,商业机会多的是失去一个并不可惜,交到了朋友又不至于被不懂的领域所欺骗,这种商业行为还不如直接捐点。","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ 巴菲特不买一股微软,即使跟比尔盖茨出双入对也不买一股,交朋友和做生意完全是界限分明,商业机会多的是失去一个并不可惜,交到了朋友又不至于被不懂的领域所欺骗,这种商业行为还不如直接捐点。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343029414633840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342629823246576,"gmtCreate":1724671420137,"gmtModify":1724671422058,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>阿里巴巴有望纳入港股通摩根士丹利亦指出,若阿里巴巴在8月内完成香港主要上市地的转换,将可在9月9日获纳入港股通。该行分析师看来,此举将在此后6个月为该股带来120亿美元的资金流入。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>阿里巴巴有望纳入港股通摩根士丹利亦指出,若阿里巴巴在8月内完成香港主要上市地的转换,将可在9月9日获纳入港股通。该行分析师看来,此举将在此后6个月为该股带来120亿美元的资金流入。","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 阿里巴巴有望纳入港股通摩根士丹利亦指出,若阿里巴巴在8月内完成香港主要上市地的转换,将可在9月9日获纳入港股通。该行分析师看来,此举将在此后6个月为该股带来120亿美元的资金流入。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342629823246576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342628191068528,"gmtCreate":1724670958019,"gmtModify":1724670959402,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 过去优秀,未来就会优秀?洛基亚,英特尔现在在哪里?逻辑谬误啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 过去优秀,未来就会优秀?洛基亚,英特尔现在在哪里?逻辑谬误啊","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$ 过去优秀,未来就会优秀?洛基亚,英特尔现在在哪里?逻辑谬误啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342628191068528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342624904761584,"gmtCreate":1724670219334,"gmtModify":1724670220862,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms(META)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 遍认为Meta的公允价值为每股568.65美元,这意味着分析师的一些增长假设甚至可能比较保守。不过,从所有这些中可以看出,以目前的价格来看,Meta仍然是一项有吸引力的投资","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms(META)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 遍认为Meta的公允价值为每股568.65美元,这意味着分析师的一些增长假设甚至可能比较保守。不过,从所有这些中可以看出,以目前的价格来看,Meta仍然是一项有吸引力的投资","text":"$Meta Platforms(META)$ 遍认为Meta的公允价值为每股568.65美元,这意味着分析师的一些增长假设甚至可能比较保守。不过,从所有这些中可以看出,以目前的价格来看,Meta仍然是一项有吸引力的投资","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342624904761584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342623132041456,"gmtCreate":1724669786541,"gmtModify":1724669790985,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a> 十倍增发已经在路上了,现在市值高达八亿美金,这公司最多值2000w","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a> 十倍增发已经在路上了,现在市值高达八亿美金,这公司最多值2000w","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 十倍增发已经在路上了,现在市值高达八亿美金,这公司最多值2000w","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/729cb693ce5ad77e596a888d5e5e611a","width":"803","height":"499"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342623132041456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4092177932484180","authorId":"4092177932484180","name":"雁门关向东二万五千里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8028d384edafa7b6d189626466fbab1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4092177932484180","authorIdStr":"4092177932484180"},"content":"FF早已资不抵债了。","text":"FF早已资不抵债了。","html":"FF早已资不抵债了。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341282243760368,"gmtCreate":1724333571678,"gmtModify":1724333645305,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>以34亿现金 + 11亿股票 + 4亿附加收益的形式收购ZT system一些非常碎片化的想法:1/ 8K里披露的交易细节非常少,反而大多数留到电话会议里说了,TIKR的含金量还在上升。2/ ZT目前年收入大概100亿美元,AMD计划剥离制造业务,保留40%员工负责设计/服务等。听上去AMD保留的业务收入和OPEX都是大概1.5亿美元的样子。AMD画饼后面对EPS提升靠‘卖更多的AI GPU’3/ 从战略看是对的,AMD最近的一系列收购都在补充芯片层面以外的能力——软件、网络、这次系统集成,为苏妈的消费算个帐:Pensando 19亿 + Silo AI 6.65亿 + ZT 49亿元 就算70亿好了。跟着卖方欢呼AMD yes之外忍不住查了下黄哥收购MLNX的价格 - 69亿。。。4/ 看了下AMD的transcript大段大段还是在讲提供定制化能力,也就是说虽然模仿黄哥把AI从芯片玩成了系统级的游戏,但是价值点还是不一样。我认为AMD处于NVDA/AVGO(ASIC)之间一个略微尴尬的位置好像还是没改变。。5/ ZT收购再剥离后考虑到AMD留下了40%的员工,目测会对服务器领域的份额有小小的洗牌。。。复杂题留给有台湾产业链关系的卷王们了。。。6/ 不清楚ZT具体的财务/增长状况,但是AMD这种战略收购也就给出了大概0.5x PS的价格。。看了下台湾0.4-1x PS,美国1x+ 的估值区间,嗯。。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>以34亿现金 + 11亿股票 + 4亿附加收益的形式收购ZT system一些非常碎片化的想法:1/ 8K里披露的交易细节非常少,反而大多数留到电话会议里说了,TIKR的含金量还在上升。2/ ZT目前年收入大概100亿美元,AMD计划剥离制造业务,保留40%员工负责设计/服务等。听上去AMD保留的业务收入和OPEX都是大概1.5亿美元的样子。AMD画饼后面对EPS提升靠‘卖更多的AI GPU’3/ 从战略看是对的,AMD最近的一系列收购都在补充芯片层面以外的能力——软件、网络、这次系统集成,为苏妈的消费算个帐:Pensando 19亿 + Silo AI 6.65亿 + ZT 49亿元 就算70亿好了。跟着卖方欢呼AMD yes之外忍不住查了下黄哥收购MLNX的价格 - 69亿。。。4/ 看了下AMD的transcript大段大段还是在讲提供定制化能力,也就是说虽然模仿黄哥把AI从芯片玩成了系统级的游戏,但是价值点还是不一样。我认为AMD处于NVDA/AVGO(ASIC)之间一个略微尴尬的位置好像还是没改变。。5/ ZT收购再剥离后考虑到AMD留下了40%的员工,目测会对服务器领域的份额有小小的洗牌。。。复杂题留给有台湾产业链关系的卷王们了。。。6/ 不清楚ZT具体的财务/增长状况,但是AMD这种战略收购也就给出了大概0.5x PS的价格。。看了下台湾0.4-1x PS,美国1x+ 的估值区间,嗯。。。","text":"$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 以34亿现金 + 11亿股票 + 4亿附加收益的形式收购ZT system一些非常碎片化的想法:1/ 8K里披露的交易细节非常少,反而大多数留到电话会议里说了,TIKR的含金量还在上升。2/ ZT目前年收入大概100亿美元,AMD计划剥离制造业务,保留40%员工负责设计/服务等。听上去AMD保留的业务收入和OPEX都是大概1.5亿美元的样子。AMD画饼后面对EPS提升靠‘卖更多的AI GPU’3/ 从战略看是对的,AMD最近的一系列收购都在补充芯片层面以外的能力——软件、网络、这次系统集成,为苏妈的消费算个帐:Pensando 19亿 + Silo AI 6.65亿 + ZT 49亿元 就算70亿好了。跟着卖方欢呼AMD yes之外忍不住查了下黄哥收购MLNX的价格 - 69亿。。。4/ 看了下AMD的transcript大段大段还是在讲提供定制化能力,也就是说虽然模仿黄哥把AI从芯片玩成了系统级的游戏,但是价值点还是不一样。我认为AMD处于NVDA/AVGO(ASIC)之间一个略微尴尬的位置好像还是没改变。。5/ ZT收购再剥离后考虑到AMD留下了40%的员工,目测会对服务器领域的份额有小小的洗牌。。。复杂题留给有台湾产业链关系的卷王们了。。。6/ 不清楚ZT具体的财务/增长状况,但是AMD这种战略收购也就给出了大概0.5x PS的价格。。看了下台湾0.4-1x PS,美国1x+ 的估值区间,嗯。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341282243760368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341237611630832,"gmtCreate":1724322675162,"gmtModify":1724322680538,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 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汽车的代言人确实很难立竿见影的转化成销量,但在整个的营销转化漏斗中,代言人可以解决第一个阶段的流量问题,让更多的人知道一个品牌、产生兴趣并且走进专卖店,至于潜客进店之后的环节,代言人基本上就发挥不了太大作用了。像理想和华为的竞争,其实就是在这第一个流量来源的环节,就拉开了很大的距离,反而到店之后的转化,理想并不差,也不怕问界。所以理想其实是应该请代言人的,这是我一贯的看法","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3cc5452e2b341841929cc98d7ccb1e5","width":"569","height":"357"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341237611630832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341234740695280,"gmtCreate":1724321974250,"gmtModify":1724324325931,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 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苹果市值重回3万亿美元,上市40多年以来股价翻了1200多倍微软自1986年IPO以来,股价累计涨幅接近3万倍英伟达自从1999年上市以来涨幅1000倍首次公开募股以来,亚马逊的股价上涨了2000多倍特斯拉,在2010年6月上市以来涨幅达到242倍,1986年上市的Costco,截止目前,股价涨了386倍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/573b301a980365210fae1680bfa3942f","width":"1265","height":"845"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341234740695280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341232770961648,"gmtCreate":1724321493358,"gmtModify":1724321507214,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms(META)$</a> <v-v 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李录前年300买meta,买成第二大仓位,去年100多割肉清仓。现在meta500多。不要盲目抄作业!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f63b14981ef8924b8c7111609c0b8ec","width":"1269","height":"995"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341232770961648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340570987917488,"gmtCreate":1724155128525,"gmtModify":1724155130177,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 经过了各种困扰、各种猜测,不管友商高涨还是下跌都在上行都在稳步上行,其动力来自源源不断的创新,源源不断的各种采购需求!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 经过了各种困扰、各种猜测,不管友商高涨还是下跌都在上行都在稳步上行,其动力来自源源不断的创新,源源不断的各种采购需求!","text":"$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 经过了各种困扰、各种猜测,不管友商高涨还是下跌都在上行都在稳步上行,其动力来自源源不断的创新,源源不断的各种采购需求!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340570987917488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340569040814256,"gmtCreate":1724154653158,"gmtModify":1724154657519,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 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全天成交仅44亿,双方围绕日均线370.9谨慎交战。已经连续四个交易日成交和振幅都在萎缩,今日主力战场更是狭窄到不到1.5元,应该都憋坏了。明日谁将率先突破呢?在368-382之间,谁的空间更大,已经显而易见了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb99ef2d64a6ef802ec338558004e5e0","width":"497","height":"303"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340569040814256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340558535483440,"gmtCreate":1724151964901,"gmtModify":1724151966680,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 股价已经非常接近我们给出的上方424.5元一线的压力位。可以考虑减仓或平仓","listText":"<a 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Therapeutics上市,该公司是一家生物制药公司。截至2021年10月7日,全球医疗健康领域本年度共发生1803起投融资事件,总融资金额约8413.98亿元。国内医疗健康领域本年度共发生934起投融资事件,总融资金额约2201.05亿元","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340243594817584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":340240798253104,"gmtCreate":1724074392335,"gmtModify":1724074393498,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 刚才超微电脑买方力量不足 不过现在好像开始买方力量有所增加 我是觉得这是一个有潜力的价位","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">$超微电脑(SMCI)$</a> 刚才超微电脑买方力量不足 不过现在好像开始买方力量有所增加 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$谷歌A(GOOGL)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 周末谷歌前CEO的演讲很火,最核心观点就是中美之间必有一场AI科技战,而欧洲和日本等算不上。埃里克·施密特还层提到4个关键词:富有的国家、很多才华横溢的人、强大的教育体系和想赢的决心","text":"$谷歌(GOOG)$ $谷歌A(GOOGL)$ 周末谷歌前CEO的演讲很火,最核心观点就是中美之间必有一场AI科技战,而欧洲和日本等算不上。埃里克·施密特还层提到4个关键词:富有的国家、很多才华横溢的人、强大的教育体系和想赢的决心","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f7994d29f9df259c8dfc4c54c066191","width":"425","height":"265"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340238760300592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339144598659120,"gmtCreate":1723806765481,"gmtModify":1723806767527,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9000000000000216","authorIdStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 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微软、亚马逊多年来给予高估值的原因我认为是其云计算业务的高增长,但是实际上2021年亚马逊股价开始滞涨的背后是云计算业务增长的放缓,到今天微软亚马逊的云计算业务增速逐年降低,如果人工智能服务不能给二者带来多少实际业绩增长的话,微软亚马逊未来确实有估值降低的风险。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339144598659120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":253770971852808,"gmtCreate":1702991762415,"gmtModify":1702991763932,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老巴买入西方石油是着眼于未来回报率不低于10%的长期确定性。第一,投资期限,老巴的重仓股一般投资期限在10年以上,西方石油储量可供开采二十年以上,而且是在不扩大资本开支的前提下。这种长期投资看重的是未来现金流而不是短期利润增速。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a> <v-v 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运鸿绿色CTI还将利用其在环保材料领域的技术积累与经验涉足医疗器械和汽车零部件领域,从而提高公司在全球环保材料领域中的战略生态段位,并有望开辟全降解材料心脏支架等系列产品生产线。运鸿绿色CTI这一资本举措及其在生态环保领域的新布局,将推动我国环保产业可持续发展,并为生态环境、绿色产业的创新和全球环境治理作出积极贡献","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":55,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/224054109224992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":243391215640872,"gmtCreate":1700457939824,"gmtModify":1700457944482,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v 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今天换电效率已经不具备优势,换电是蔚来的沉没成本,经济学上理性人的选择是放弃换电。我常去的蔚来空间,大约十几位工作人员为车主服务,我观察多数无所事事,企业如果迟迟不盈利这种非利润项目何以维继?换句话说,这个模式在当下这个阶段,商业上不可持续。电动车的终局越来越清晰,拥有技术优势和成本优势的少数几家能跑出来,新势力们大多要面对被收购或破产的命运。或许十年后,最终站在巅峰的那家新能力车企有资本像蔚来这么玩。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1c082b3c7ec6c81c6e0b8654626aa86","width":"581","height":"349"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/243391215640872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3515987544711074","authorId":"3515987544711074","name":"无辜的企鹅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/000ecb1d0e8802dcb3f23b34387cba64","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3515987544711074","idStr":"3515987544711074"},"content":"说白了,换电只是新势力在行业初期的一种可行的商业模式,但是现在新能源车的拥挤和技术更新速度已经挤压了换电的竞争力,但是换电又是重资产商业模式掉头难。食之无味弃之可惜。 坐等接管吧,做成了个地产物业公司","text":"说白了,换电只是新势力在行业初期的一种可行的商业模式,但是现在新能源车的拥挤和技术更新速度已经挤压了换电的竞争力,但是换电又是重资产商业模式掉头难。食之无味弃之可惜。 坐等接管吧,做成了个地产物业公司","html":"说白了,换电只是新势力在行业初期的一种可行的商业模式,但是现在新能源车的拥挤和技术更新速度已经挤压了换电的竞争力,但是换电又是重资产商业模式掉头难。食之无味弃之可惜。 坐等接管吧,做成了个地产物业公司"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":290625848221736,"gmtCreate":1711975792851,"gmtModify":1712055733202,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$</a> 的高溢价是事实,但做空机构在大饼刚刚突破新高的位置做空微策,我不认为是明智之举。大饼在此位置整理后,大概率会进入3-5周的一波主升浪上涨,这个位置开空,既不是最佳空间,也不是最佳时间。大幅震荡再所难免,鹿死谁手结果未知,在大饼破10w刀之前,我不会轻易卖出微策,我没有任何杠杆,不惧波动,如果最终错了,我甘愿买单。大饼现在的问题,是供给枯竭,涨跌概率,由此而知!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$</a> 的高溢价是事实,但做空机构在大饼刚刚突破新高的位置做空微策,我不认为是明智之举。大饼在此位置整理后,大概率会进入3-5周的一波主升浪上涨,这个位置开空,既不是最佳空间,也不是最佳时间。大幅震荡再所难免,鹿死谁手结果未知,在大饼破10w刀之前,我不会轻易卖出微策,我没有任何杠杆,不惧波动,如果最终错了,我甘愿买单。大饼现在的问题,是供给枯竭,涨跌概率,由此而知!","text":"$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ 的高溢价是事实,但做空机构在大饼刚刚突破新高的位置做空微策,我不认为是明智之举。大饼在此位置整理后,大概率会进入3-5周的一波主升浪上涨,这个位置开空,既不是最佳空间,也不是最佳时间。大幅震荡再所难免,鹿死谁手结果未知,在大饼破10w刀之前,我不会轻易卖出微策,我没有任何杠杆,不惧波动,如果最终错了,我甘愿买单。大饼现在的问题,是供给枯竭,涨跌概率,由此而知!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290625848221736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573989901691287","authorId":"3573989901691287","name":"AllenGAMES","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573989901691287","idStr":"3573989901691287"},"content":"你这文案完全抄的雪球某位大v的","text":"你这文案完全抄的雪球某位大v的","html":"你这文案完全抄的雪球某位大v的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":294516296343640,"gmtCreate":1712929297475,"gmtModify":1712929299897,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我用了很多年淘宝,中途转向拼多多 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最终鹿死谁手不好说,拼多多的团队战斗力比较猛,阿里没有马云带队士气有点不足","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294516296343640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":265874726907928,"gmtCreate":1705929383947,"gmtModify":1706587014875,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不要人云亦云,拼多多商业模式是真的比阿里 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> ,京东 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a> 好,如果只是因为低端假货做上去的,那就不会受资本追捧;你研究下多多的人员数量和营收就明白了;单一个“假货”能干出半个江山?多多走的是白牌集中工厂供应链的模式,是介于京东的自营和阿里的全开放之间的一个商业模式。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> <v-v 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$拼多多(PDD)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/265874726907928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":241398860083224,"gmtCreate":1699964618135,"gmtModify":1699964619636,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">$礼来(LLY)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>减肥药。减肥药方面,上周五老M那边传来一个利好,医药巨头礼来公司的一款产品获得了通过,据说72周减重超过40斤。减肥药在上个月A股其实已经走过一波行情,上周五有重新走强的迹象,会不会因为这个消息走第二波 ,今天也是可以留意的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">$礼来(LLY)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>减肥药。减肥药方面,上周五老M那边传来一个利好,医药巨头礼来公司的一款产品获得了通过,据说72周减重超过40斤。减肥药在上个月A股其实已经走过一波行情,上周五有重新走强的迹象,会不会因为这个消息走第二波 ,今天也是可以留意的。","text":"$礼来(LLY)$ 减肥药。减肥药方面,上周五老M那边传来一个利好,医药巨头礼来公司的一款产品获得了通过,据说72周减重超过40斤。减肥药在上个月A股其实已经走过一波行情,上周五有重新走强的迹象,会不会因为这个消息走第二波 ,今天也是可以留意的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/241398860083224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":312933406163176,"gmtCreate":1717421902876,"gmtModify":1717421907291,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>按照雷军的德行,只会低价回购,不会高价回购!这个时候回购,说明暴跌要来了,一定有散户看不到对问题!小米的历史回购期都在下跌,这次会例外吗?不会","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>按照雷军的德行,只会低价回购,不会高价回购!这个时候回购,说明暴跌要来了,一定有散户看不到对问题!小米的历史回购期都在下跌,这次会例外吗?不会","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 按照雷军的德行,只会低价回购,不会高价回购!这个时候回购,说明暴跌要来了,一定有散户看不到对问题!小米的历史回购期都在下跌,这次会例外吗?不会","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/421d9f2430573d1c8075bf2184c71438","width":"707","height":"505"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312933406163176","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4094775557278220","authorId":"4094775557278220","name":"月落满江树","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676581f2cafca2b16087fc3ccd78ff31","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4094775557278220","idStr":"4094775557278220"},"content":"你的逻辑自我矛盾啊,如果要暴跌的话,现在回购不就成了高位了。。","text":"你的逻辑自我矛盾啊,如果要暴跌的话,现在回购不就成了高位了。。","html":"你的逻辑自我矛盾啊,如果要暴跌的话,现在回购不就成了高位了。。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":263689281921088,"gmtCreate":1705408125665,"gmtModify":1705562197866,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"amd市盈没看上去这么离谱,但是依然很离谱,巅峰amd一年也就50亿美元,那时候amd赶上了台积电红利,英伟达用三星的垃圾工艺,导致amd第一次在显卡上与英伟达不分上下,吓得英伟达的30系显卡定了史无前例的低价,后来挖矿涨价是另外一回事,现在英伟达重新用了台积电,a卡和n卡的差距马上就出来了,就算amd重回巅峰,一年50亿,市盈率也高达46还是高,要知道amd平时的pe也就15-20左右,毕竟资本回报率在那摆着呢 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"amd市盈没看上去这么离谱,但是依然很离谱,巅峰amd一年也就50亿美元,那时候amd赶上了台积电红利,英伟达用三星的垃圾工艺,导致amd第一次在显卡上与英伟达不分上下,吓得英伟达的30系显卡定了史无前例的低价,后来挖矿涨价是另外一回事,现在英伟达重新用了台积电,a卡和n卡的差距马上就出来了,就算amd重回巅峰,一年50亿,市盈率也高达46还是高,要知道amd平时的pe也就15-20左右,毕竟资本回报率在那摆着呢 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"amd市盈没看上去这么离谱,但是依然很离谱,巅峰amd一年也就50亿美元,那时候amd赶上了台积电红利,英伟达用三星的垃圾工艺,导致amd第一次在显卡上与英伟达不分上下,吓得英伟达的30系显卡定了史无前例的低价,后来挖矿涨价是另外一回事,现在英伟达重新用了台积电,a卡和n卡的差距马上就出来了,就算amd重回巅峰,一年50亿,市盈率也高达46还是高,要知道amd平时的pe也就15-20左右,毕竟资本回报率在那摆着呢 $美国超微公司(AMD)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f112a914b53ee2766cb7626dc6ebe69","width":"451","height":"309"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/263689281921088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574609203076960","authorId":"3574609203076960","name":"目光之后","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2516d9fcad49f5c5a9d0f19b33ab3b62","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574609203076960","idStr":"3574609203076960"},"content":"直接看amd财报和2024年的营收预期就可以了。","text":"直接看amd财报和2024年的营收预期就可以了。","html":"直接看amd财报和2024年的营收预期就可以了。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":245503301800008,"gmtCreate":1700974460329,"gmtModify":1700975400728,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>蔚来这波压力老大了。他现在就两个选择,要么第一,继续找中东大哥融资,现在人家都说他是新型的庞氏。要么他就在国内的朋友圈看一看有谁愿意并购他的,他这资金撑不过一年的,而且明年整车厂的竞争会更大,所以他真的很难,很严峻。今天热搜不是还有吗?员工自费买车还是被裁了,可想而知压力有多大。而且你看现在车展上同样是新势力,小鹏X91出来38万多,很有可能就是爆款,市场现在反馈很好,然后包括理想的那纯电车型,一个多小时订单已经超过1万辆了,之前的那个阿维塔也是,要么华为问界怎么样?你看,我觉得蔚来已经远远的被甩在后面了。而且未来不是之前投资了长安的阿维塔吗?现在估计,大概率他已经把自己的股份卖掉了,就为了融资吗?但是未来也很难倒啊,毕竟那个江淮那边那么大的一个产业集群对,养那么多人?所以说下个狠话,要么他是有继续有大哥给钱,要么就是被大哥收了,不信你看着","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>蔚来这波压力老大了。他现在就两个选择,要么第一,继续找中东大哥融资,现在人家都说他是新型的庞氏。要么他就在国内的朋友圈看一看有谁愿意并购他的,他这资金撑不过一年的,而且明年整车厂的竞争会更大,所以他真的很难,很严峻。今天热搜不是还有吗?员工自费买车还是被裁了,可想而知压力有多大。而且你看现在车展上同样是新势力,小鹏X91出来38万多,很有可能就是爆款,市场现在反馈很好,然后包括理想的那纯电车型,一个多小时订单已经超过1万辆了,之前的那个阿维塔也是,要么华为问界怎么样?你看,我觉得蔚来已经远远的被甩在后面了。而且未来不是之前投资了长安的阿维塔吗?现在估计,大概率他已经把自己的股份卖掉了,就为了融资吗?但是未来也很难倒啊,毕竟那个江淮那边那么大的一个产业集群对,养那么多人?所以说下个狠话,要么他是有继续有大哥给钱,要么就是被大哥收了,不信你看着","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 蔚来这波压力老大了。他现在就两个选择,要么第一,继续找中东大哥融资,现在人家都说他是新型的庞氏。要么他就在国内的朋友圈看一看有谁愿意并购他的,他这资金撑不过一年的,而且明年整车厂的竞争会更大,所以他真的很难,很严峻。今天热搜不是还有吗?员工自费买车还是被裁了,可想而知压力有多大。而且你看现在车展上同样是新势力,小鹏X91出来38万多,很有可能就是爆款,市场现在反馈很好,然后包括理想的那纯电车型,一个多小时订单已经超过1万辆了,之前的那个阿维塔也是,要么华为问界怎么样?你看,我觉得蔚来已经远远的被甩在后面了。而且未来不是之前投资了长安的阿维塔吗?现在估计,大概率他已经把自己的股份卖掉了,就为了融资吗?但是未来也很难倒啊,毕竟那个江淮那边那么大的一个产业集群对,养那么多人?所以说下个狠话,要么他是有继续有大哥给钱,要么就是被大哥收了,不信你看着","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbe4ff25919986b7767eafec8f3e4208","width":"1443","height":"645"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/245503301800008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527685074951259","authorId":"3527685074951259","name":"雾狸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527685074951259","idStr":"3527685074951259"},"content":"看空蔚来的人里80%就这水平。学会做一道三年级数学题就觉得自己洞察天机。第二季度现金储备300多亿,平均每个季度净亏50亿以上,最多再撑6个季度左右,也就1年多点。算式:300/5=6。赶紧发给李斌,在我精确计算下,蔚来命不久矣。 太可笑了[笑哭] 蔚来不是不可能倒闭(并购),但绝不是现在这个阶段能看出来的。简单的三年级算数题谁都会算,不用反复提及。蔚来在倒闭前还有不少可以垂死挣扎的牌可以打,低端车型,减配降价,供应商降级,单电机,收缩nio house,裁撤门店。 什么时候看到蔚来急了,那才是真倒闭警告。","text":"看空蔚来的人里80%就这水平。学会做一道三年级数学题就觉得自己洞察天机。第二季度现金储备300多亿,平均每个季度净亏50亿以上,最多再撑6个季度左右,也就1年多点。算式:300/5=6。赶紧发给李斌,在我精确计算下,蔚来命不久矣。 太可笑了[笑哭] 蔚来不是不可能倒闭(并购),但绝不是现在这个阶段能看出来的。简单的三年级算数题谁都会算,不用反复提及。蔚来在倒闭前还有不少可以垂死挣扎的牌可以打,低端车型,减配降价,供应商降级,单电机,收缩nio house,裁撤门店。 什么时候看到蔚来急了,那才是真倒闭警告。","html":"看空蔚来的人里80%就这水平。学会做一道三年级数学题就觉得自己洞察天机。第二季度现金储备300多亿,平均每个季度净亏50亿以上,最多再撑6个季度左右,也就1年多点。算式:300/5=6。赶紧发给李斌,在我精确计算下,蔚来命不久矣。 太可笑了[笑哭] 蔚来不是不可能倒闭(并购),但绝不是现在这个阶段能看出来的。简单的三年级算数题谁都会算,不用反复提及。蔚来在倒闭前还有不少可以垂死挣扎的牌可以打,低端车型,减配降价,供应商降级,单电机,收缩nio house,裁撤门店。 什么时候看到蔚来急了,那才是真倒闭警告。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":261596263743528,"gmtCreate":1704894257305,"gmtModify":1704954845075,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"知道 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>, 以前真没注意它的结构。我想你说的是从108.05起来的结构。看月线,感觉像在3中。不过, 可能要注意, 看周线,小概率可能从502.57开始的调整就没结束。整体,看30周线就ok。基本能解决所有问题","listText":"知道 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>, 以前真没注意它的结构。我想你说的是从108.05起来的结构。看月线,感觉像在3中。不过, 可能要注意, 看周线,小概率可能从502.57开始的调整就没结束。整体,看30周线就ok。基本能解决所有问题","text":"知道 $英伟达(NVDA)$ , 以前真没注意它的结构。我想你说的是从108.05起来的结构。看月线,感觉像在3中。不过, 可能要注意, 看周线,小概率可能从502.57开始的调整就没结束。整体,看30周线就ok。基本能解决所有问题","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab4310cc148efb6493dc34eb6e4468c","width":"361","height":"325"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/261596263743528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3546249304196282","idStr":"3546249304196282"},"content":"不知所云,还是分析企业本身更靠谱","text":"不知所云,还是分析企业本身更靠谱","html":"不知所云,还是分析企业本身更靠谱"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":262580350648360,"gmtCreate":1705137462118,"gmtModify":1705139779721,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"瑞幸最近跌很多,估值好像也很便宜了,看富途、雪球好像市值不到64亿美金。提醒一下,瑞幸总股本是3.16亿股,大部分券商软件没把优先股算进去。今天23价格,实际市值有 73亿美金。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a>","listText":"瑞幸最近跌很多,估值好像也很便宜了,看富途、雪球好像市值不到64亿美金。提醒一下,瑞幸总股本是3.16亿股,大部分券商软件没把优先股算进去。今天23价格,实际市值有 73亿美金。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$</a>","text":"瑞幸最近跌很多,估值好像也很便宜了,看富途、雪球好像市值不到64亿美金。提醒一下,瑞幸总股本是3.16亿股,大部分券商软件没把优先股算进去。今天23价格,实际市值有 73亿美金。 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pc没戏就是大忽悠,手机才是王者。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":279618901749776,"gmtCreate":1709297174231,"gmtModify":1709297175978,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"抖音电商今年战略全面抄拼多多 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>是很对的,就看做到什么程度了。战略定方向是最难的,执行反而只是考验组织结构。要是真能实现淘宝的品牌商品+拼多多的极致低价白牌商品的双重体验,那抖音会是电商的终局一号位。是黄铮五年前所说的“disney+Costco”。","listText":"抖音电商今年战略全面抄拼多多 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>是很对的,就看做到什么程度了。战略定方向是最难的,执行反而只是考验组织结构。要是真能实现淘宝的品牌商品+拼多多的极致低价白牌商品的双重体验,那抖音会是电商的终局一号位。是黄铮五年前所说的“disney+Costco”。","text":"抖音电商今年战略全面抄拼多多 $拼多多(PDD)$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>其实在同时起来的三个造车新势力里面蔚来是运气和条件最好的,开始拿到的投资多,起点高,抢占了先机。可惜有钱了就开始不务正业了,我当时开玩笑说感觉蔚来没把心思放在造车上,相比起来隔壁李想 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> 就很务实,至少是在踏踏实实的造车","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>其实在同时起来的三个造车新势力里面蔚来是运气和条件最好的,开始拿到的投资多,起点高,抢占了先机。可惜有钱了就开始不务正业了,我当时开玩笑说感觉蔚来没把心思放在造车上,相比起来隔壁李想 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> 就很务实,至少是在踏踏实实的造车","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 其实在同时起来的三个造车新势力里面蔚来是运气和条件最好的,开始拿到的投资多,起点高,抢占了先机。可惜有钱了就开始不务正业了,我当时开玩笑说感觉蔚来没把心思放在造车上,相比起来隔壁李想 $理想汽车(LI)$ 就很务实,至少是在踏踏实实的造车","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/238890794414080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"127965840282720","authorId":"127965840282720","name":"悟空888","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"127965840282720","idStr":"127965840282720"},"content":"李斌真是把一手好牌任性的打烂了,关键他自己应该也是知道会是什么结果,但是他非要这么干!","text":"李斌真是把一手好牌任性的打烂了,关键他自己应该也是知道会是什么结果,但是他非要这么干!","html":"李斌真是把一手好牌任性的打烂了,关键他自己应该也是知道会是什么结果,但是他非要这么干!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":288880760946728,"gmtCreate":1711549746153,"gmtModify":1711550076106,"author":{"id":"9000000000000216","authorId":"9000000000000216","name":"爱雅额","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3c9f1e4d056b8f2c66c22a8930b166","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000216","idStr":"9000000000000216"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"蔚来可是和地产是有渊源的 蔚来的二号人物,可能是蔚来不行的第一大功臣秦就是地产背景出来的,这人就是一副精英做派,从不吝啬软文投入,新势力里面,营销费用蔚来一直是最豪的,但是效果最横的一直是理想。蔚来有个极其小资的管理层,这种管理层在风口红利时占尽融资优势,在竞争白热化时原形毕露,如同当年杂牌国军,溃不成军。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">$蔚来(NIO.SI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"蔚来可是和地产是有渊源的 蔚来的二号人物,可能是蔚来不行的第一大功臣秦就是地产背景出来的,这人就是一副精英做派,从不吝啬软文投入,新势力里面,营销费用蔚来一直是最豪的,但是效果最横的一直是理想。蔚来有个极其小资的管理层,这种管理层在风口红利时占尽融资优势,在竞争白热化时原形毕露,如同当年杂牌国军,溃不成军。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">$蔚来(NIO.SI)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"蔚来可是和地产是有渊源的 蔚来的二号人物,可能是蔚来不行的第一大功臣秦就是地产背景出来的,这人就是一副精英做派,从不吝啬软文投入,新势力里面,营销费用蔚来一直是最豪的,但是效果最横的一直是理想。蔚来有个极其小资的管理层,这种管理层在风口红利时占尽融资优势,在竞争白热化时原形毕露,如同当年杂牌国军,溃不成军。 $蔚来(NIO)$ $蔚来(NIO.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288880760946728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513312350267839","authorId":"3513312350267839","name":"金锵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1019689b2194ee1533506829e92dd423","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3513312350267839","idStr":"3513312350267839"},"content":"理想有互联网思维基因,所以效果很好","text":"理想有互联网思维基因,所以效果很好","html":"理想有互联网思维基因,所以效果很好"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}