Hjmnn的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Hjmnn

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：广东

8关注

2粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-11-12

如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股，千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心] $小白买买(HX)$$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$$中北能(CNEY)$

2021-11-10

$Society Pass Inc(SOPA)$待会3连砸

2021-11-08

$中北能(CNEY)$又一个和信贷套路

2021-11-04

$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$😅

2021-11-03

$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$差点全仓梭哈进去

2021-11-03

$安飞士(CAR)$这俩像不像

2021-10-30

题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂，做不到的原因不在于人性问题，更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的，更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等，这些没人能成为先知，稍微一个环节出错，特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff，概念不错，但是未来如何，谁知道

股票投资世界的简单与复杂

2021-10-30

$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$拿了9.5的期权，最后还是平仓了，这种非常接近行权价的，而且一天上下几十点，风险太大，说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去，不赚倒亏

2021-10-16

$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$Fda宣布延期了[捂脸]

2021-09-29

$老虎证券(TIGR)$空仓了，今晚会继续跌

2021-03-19

$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$这公司不值百亿市值

2021-03-12

$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$还好没有买入，别看他开盘涨这么多，你要是60买入就接盘了

2021-03-12

$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$以后盘前暴涨，一律视为骗炮。

2021-03-11

$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$狗屎，**💩💩💩

2021-03-11

$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$大家拿住，这只股不是单纯的价值股，这是wsb股，别听那些价值分析，没意义

2021-03-11

$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$冲冲冲

2021-03-11

$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$hold on

2021-03-11

$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$甘里良，骗炮啊，我盘前20%入的

2021-03-10

$游戏驿站(GME)$看看人家德国兄弟的觉悟💎✋🏻

2021-03-10

$游戏驿站(GME)$等到400多的时候肯定有一波小回落，因为之前人解套了，到时候大家拿住呀💎🙌🏻

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3574739794144957","uuid":"3574739794144957","gmtCreate":1611645770610,"gmtModify":1611645770610,"name":"Hjmnn","pinyin":"hjmnn","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":8,"tweetSize":25,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":2,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.24","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"广东","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":879885407,"gmtCreate":1636703391609,"gmtModify":1636703391609,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股，千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心]&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">$小白买买(HX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNEY\">$中北能(CNEY)$</a>","listText":"如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股，千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心]&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">$小白买买(HX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNEY\">$中北能(CNEY)$</a>","text":"如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股，千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心] $小白买买(HX)$$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$$中北能(CNEY)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dce8b8fe3f4f90bade389f1ee083581","width":"1170","height":"2532"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ed0d8ad49920aaa6ba6b486853cb41","width":"1170","height":"2532"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ca49b80320d1178646c1f73b4afc44","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879885407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847972161,"gmtCreate":1636477391871,"gmtModify":1636477391871,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOPA\">$Society Pass Inc(SOPA)$</a>待会3连砸","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOPA\">$Society Pass Inc(SOPA)$</a>待会3连砸","text":"$Society Pass Inc(SOPA)$待会3连砸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847972161","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4098065664320650","authorId":"4098065664320650","name":"TAK_7780","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/800be4450d84546bcbb57fb54d2c61f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4098065664320650","idStr":"4098065664320650"},"content":"大资金还在加持","text":"大资金还在加持","html":"大资金还在加持"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844308806,"gmtCreate":1636385917867,"gmtModify":1636385917867,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNEY\">$中北能(CNEY)$</a>又一个和信贷套路","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNEY\">$中北能(CNEY)$</a>又一个和信贷套路","text":"$中北能(CNEY)$又一个和信贷套路","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844308806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848884173,"gmtCreate":1635989320542,"gmtModify":1635989320542,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>😅","text":"$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$😅","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118b858300f74b87536550c057d16557","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848884173","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841398776,"gmtCreate":1635878312294,"gmtModify":1635878312294,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$</a>差点全仓梭哈进去","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$</a>差点全仓梭哈进去","text":"$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$差点全仓梭哈进去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841398776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841963121,"gmtCreate":1635868869755,"gmtModify":1635868869755,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAR\">$安飞士(CAR)$</a>这俩像不像","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAR\">$安飞士(CAR)$</a>这俩像不像","text":"$安飞士(CAR)$这俩像不像","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/affc8cab6b8ae8fbcc760bd2c99b20ac","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841963121","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857740469,"gmtCreate":1635563448790,"gmtModify":1635565752237,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂，做不到的原因不在于人性问题，更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的，更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等，这些没人能成为先知，稍微一个环节出错，特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff，概念不错，但是未来如何，谁知道","listText":"题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂，做不到的原因不在于人性问题，更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的，更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等，这些没人能成为先知，稍微一个环节出错，特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff，概念不错，但是未来如何，谁知道","text":"题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂，做不到的原因不在于人性问题，更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的，更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等，这些没人能成为先知，稍微一个环节出错，特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff，概念不错，但是未来如何，谁知道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857740469","repostId":"1160331083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1160331083","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1635490569,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160331083?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 14:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"股票投资世界的简单与复杂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160331083","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。\n说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。\n说复杂，是股票投资在投资标","content":"<p>股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。</p>\n<p>说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。</p>\n<p><b>说复杂，是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上，又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化，最终演化成：</b></p>\n<p>1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重，而对长期因素给予了太低的权重，毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了；</p>\n<p>2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人（杀跌），才存活了下来；那些逆向胆大的古猿人，则都早早死掉了，连后代都没有留下来。</p>\n<p>回到投资和我们的工作，抛开纷繁复杂的表象，实际只需要做两件事情：</p>\n<p><b>1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司；</b></p>\n<p><b>2、找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有。</b></p>\n<p><b>识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司</b></p>\n<p>这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。</p>\n<p>从实践中看，公司的增长，基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动，公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的，且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。</p>\n<p>借用牛顿第一定律的表述：任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态，直到长期施加较大的外力，迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化，等在公司长期业绩上体现出来，也是2～3年之后的事情了。</p>\n<p><b>找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有</b></p>\n<p>找机会买入，买入后始终持有，是一个相对简单的策略，不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。</p>\n<p>在中国股市的绝大部分时间，完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司，由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素，始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司，作为超一线品种，市场给的估值水平，一直低于众多其他公司。</p>\n<p>但这种情况，在2019～2020年，有了很大的变化：好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速，估值持续提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f618c607ac3a72b463c86d3223c32e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>变化的原因有很多，但主要有两个：</p>\n<p><b>1、外资参与不断加深。</b>外资携长期视野和长期资金，以国外几十年的发展经验，拿到中国股市，相当于开了几十年的天眼。</p>\n<p>事物内在的发展规律都是类似的，中国公司的发展道路，也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。</p>\n<p>从外资角度来看，以二线公司的市盈率，买入中国一线公司，坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会，是非常好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。</b>好公司股价的上涨，吸引了更大的资金买入，市场在不断自我强化。</p>\n<p>现在这个时间点，在好公司估值较高的情况下，该如何投资，对任何一个市场参与者而言，都是一个较大的考验。</p>\n<p>可能的选择有以下几个：</p>\n<p><b>1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。</b>通过好公司业绩的持续增长，来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利，估值不变，至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。</p>\n<p>如果不顺利，碰到短期业绩下滑，在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下，会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司，年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长，135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中，在股价跌去2/3之后，现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长，PEG估值法视角下，今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。</p>\n<p><b>2、退而求其次，选择性价比更高的二线品种。</b></p>\n<p>2021年上半年，这类“性价比更高的二线品种”，的确走势很好，有多个都上涨了50%。</p>\n<p>“性价比更高的二线品种”，短期内是对组合有帮助的，长期由于路径依赖，会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。</p>\n<p>如果大家的持仓只有1年，我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”，但考虑到大家都是长期持有，这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的，立足长远才能获得长期收获。</p>\n<p><b>3、暂时轻仓等待。</b></p>\n<p>在好公司估值较高时，暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。</p>\n<p>毕竟茅指数在2019年1月～2021年6月短短2.5年时间，就上涨了3.3倍，大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅，一部分是估值修复，另一部分则是泡沫。</p>\n<p>在存在泡沫的情况下，如果上涨，不一定能上涨很多；一旦有回调，就会是非常大的回调。</p>\n<p>当然，任何判断都是有风险的，万一判断错了，在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累，相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司，这样将来组合的风险更低。</p>\n<p><b>总之，识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司，找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有，这两件事情，会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。</b></p>\n<p>最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略：用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。</p>\n<p>1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后，只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出，即便估值过高，也保留部分仓位，最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进，在时间维度上分散风险；</p>\n<p>2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票，在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合，该投资组合能够规避常见的风险，并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益，进而实现长期收益率目标；</p>\n<p>3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立，使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚，能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股票投资世界的简单与复杂</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股票投资世界的简单与复杂\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-29 14:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。</p>\n<p>说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。</p>\n<p><b>说复杂，是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上，又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化，最终演化成：</b></p>\n<p>1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重，而对长期因素给予了太低的权重，毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了；</p>\n<p>2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人（杀跌），才存活了下来；那些逆向胆大的古猿人，则都早早死掉了，连后代都没有留下来。</p>\n<p>回到投资和我们的工作，抛开纷繁复杂的表象，实际只需要做两件事情：</p>\n<p><b>1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司；</b></p>\n<p><b>2、找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有。</b></p>\n<p><b>识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司</b></p>\n<p>这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。</p>\n<p>从实践中看，公司的增长，基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动，公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的，且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。</p>\n<p>借用牛顿第一定律的表述：任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态，直到长期施加较大的外力，迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化，等在公司长期业绩上体现出来，也是2～3年之后的事情了。</p>\n<p><b>找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有</b></p>\n<p>找机会买入，买入后始终持有，是一个相对简单的策略，不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。</p>\n<p>在中国股市的绝大部分时间，完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司，由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素，始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司，作为超一线品种，市场给的估值水平，一直低于众多其他公司。</p>\n<p>但这种情况，在2019～2020年，有了很大的变化：好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速，估值持续提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f618c607ac3a72b463c86d3223c32e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>变化的原因有很多，但主要有两个：</p>\n<p><b>1、外资参与不断加深。</b>外资携长期视野和长期资金，以国外几十年的发展经验，拿到中国股市，相当于开了几十年的天眼。</p>\n<p>事物内在的发展规律都是类似的，中国公司的发展道路，也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。</p>\n<p>从外资角度来看，以二线公司的市盈率，买入中国一线公司，坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会，是非常好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。</b>好公司股价的上涨，吸引了更大的资金买入，市场在不断自我强化。</p>\n<p>现在这个时间点，在好公司估值较高的情况下，该如何投资，对任何一个市场参与者而言，都是一个较大的考验。</p>\n<p>可能的选择有以下几个：</p>\n<p><b>1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。</b>通过好公司业绩的持续增长，来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利，估值不变，至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。</p>\n<p>如果不顺利，碰到短期业绩下滑，在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下，会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司，年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长，135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中，在股价跌去2/3之后，现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长，PEG估值法视角下，今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。</p>\n<p><b>2、退而求其次，选择性价比更高的二线品种。</b></p>\n<p>2021年上半年，这类“性价比更高的二线品种”，的确走势很好，有多个都上涨了50%。</p>\n<p>“性价比更高的二线品种”，短期内是对组合有帮助的，长期由于路径依赖，会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。</p>\n<p>如果大家的持仓只有1年，我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”，但考虑到大家都是长期持有，这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的，立足长远才能获得长期收获。</p>\n<p><b>3、暂时轻仓等待。</b></p>\n<p>在好公司估值较高时，暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。</p>\n<p>毕竟茅指数在2019年1月～2021年6月短短2.5年时间，就上涨了3.3倍，大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅，一部分是估值修复，另一部分则是泡沫。</p>\n<p>在存在泡沫的情况下，如果上涨，不一定能上涨很多；一旦有回调，就会是非常大的回调。</p>\n<p>当然，任何判断都是有风险的，万一判断错了，在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累，相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司，这样将来组合的风险更低。</p>\n<p><b>总之，识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司，找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有，这两件事情，会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。</b></p>\n<p>最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略：用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。</p>\n<p>1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后，只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出，即便估值过高，也保留部分仓位，最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进，在时间维度上分散风险；</p>\n<p>2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票，在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合，该投资组合能够规避常见的风险，并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益，进而实现长期收益率目标；</p>\n<p>3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立，使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚，能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5bec9a0d94ae609599ec4f96b9141c6","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160331083","content_text":"股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。\n说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。\n说复杂，是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上，又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化，最终演化成：\n1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重，而对长期因素给予了太低的权重，毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了；\n2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人（杀跌），才存活了下来；那些逆向胆大的古猿人，则都早早死掉了，连后代都没有留下来。\n回到投资和我们的工作，抛开纷繁复杂的表象，实际只需要做两件事情：\n1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司；\n2、找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有。\n识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司\n这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。\n从实践中看，公司的增长，基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动，公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的，且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。\n借用牛顿第一定律的表述：任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态，直到长期施加较大的外力，迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化，等在公司长期业绩上体现出来，也是2～3年之后的事情了。\n找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有\n找机会买入，买入后始终持有，是一个相对简单的策略，不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。\n在中国股市的绝大部分时间，完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司，由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素，始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司，作为超一线品种，市场给的估值水平，一直低于众多其他公司。\n但这种情况，在2019～2020年，有了很大的变化：好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速，估值持续提高。\n\n变化的原因有很多，但主要有两个：\n1、外资参与不断加深。外资携长期视野和长期资金，以国外几十年的发展经验，拿到中国股市，相当于开了几十年的天眼。\n事物内在的发展规律都是类似的，中国公司的发展道路，也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。\n从外资角度来看，以二线公司的市盈率，买入中国一线公司，坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会，是非常好的选择。\n2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。好公司股价的上涨，吸引了更大的资金买入，市场在不断自我强化。\n现在这个时间点，在好公司估值较高的情况下，该如何投资，对任何一个市场参与者而言，都是一个较大的考验。\n可能的选择有以下几个：\n1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。通过好公司业绩的持续增长，来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利，估值不变，至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。\n如果不顺利，碰到短期业绩下滑，在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下，会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司，年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长，135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中，在股价跌去2/3之后，现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长，PEG估值法视角下，今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。\n2、退而求其次，选择性价比更高的二线品种。\n2021年上半年，这类“性价比更高的二线品种”，的确走势很好，有多个都上涨了50%。\n“性价比更高的二线品种”，短期内是对组合有帮助的，长期由于路径依赖，会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。\n如果大家的持仓只有1年，我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”，但考虑到大家都是长期持有，这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的，立足长远才能获得长期收获。\n3、暂时轻仓等待。\n在好公司估值较高时，暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。\n毕竟茅指数在2019年1月～2021年6月短短2.5年时间，就上涨了3.3倍，大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅，一部分是估值修复，另一部分则是泡沫。\n在存在泡沫的情况下，如果上涨，不一定能上涨很多；一旦有回调，就会是非常大的回调。\n当然，任何判断都是有风险的，万一判断错了，在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累，相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司，这样将来组合的风险更低。\n总之，识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司，找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有，这两件事情，会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。\n最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略：用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。\n1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后，只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出，即便估值过高，也保留部分仓位，最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进，在时间维度上分散风险；\n2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票，在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合，该投资组合能够规避常见的风险，并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益，进而实现长期收益率目标；\n3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立，使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚，能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857672921,"gmtCreate":1635524527421,"gmtModify":1635524527421,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>拿了9.5的期权，最后还是平仓了，这种非常接近行权价的，而且一天上下几十点，风险太大，说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去，不赚倒亏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>拿了9.5的期权，最后还是平仓了，这种非常接近行权价的，而且一天上下几十点，风险太大，说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去，不赚倒亏","text":"$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$拿了9.5的期权，最后还是平仓了，这种非常接近行权价的，而且一天上下几十点，风险太大，说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去，不赚倒亏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857672921","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824491359,"gmtCreate":1634344431681,"gmtModify":1634344431681,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVDL\">$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$</a>Fda宣布延期了[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVDL\">$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$</a>Fda宣布延期了[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$Fda宣布延期了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824491359","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862523846,"gmtCreate":1632892570690,"gmtModify":1632892570690,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>空仓了，今晚会继续跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>空仓了，今晚会继续跌","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$空仓了，今晚会继续跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862523846","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350010000,"gmtCreate":1616136424500,"gmtModify":1616136424500,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$</a>这公司不值百亿市值","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$</a>这公司不值百亿市值","text":"$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$这公司不值百亿市值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350010000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3578707760559752","authorId":"3578707760559752","name":"小丑竟是自己","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d899609ef246e4a229875ecfc99aba22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578707760559752","idStr":"3578707760559752"},"content":"你当那么豪华的基石阵容都是傻子么...","text":"你当那么豪华的基石阵容都是傻子么...","html":"你当那么豪华的基石阵容都是傻子么..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328857716,"gmtCreate":1615514670835,"gmtModify":1703490267680,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>还好没有买入，别看他开盘涨这么多，你要是60买入就接盘了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>还好没有买入，别看他开盘涨这么多，你要是60买入就接盘了","text":"$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$还好没有买入，别看他开盘涨这么多，你要是60买入就接盘了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328857716","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328966073,"gmtCreate":1615480063492,"gmtModify":1703489811871,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>以后盘前暴涨，一律视为骗炮。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>以后盘前暴涨，一律视为骗炮。","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$以后盘前暴涨，一律视为骗炮。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328966073","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328048578,"gmtCreate":1615476298894,"gmtModify":1703489715838,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>狗屎，**💩💩💩","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>狗屎，**💩💩💩","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$狗屎，**💩💩💩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328048578","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328093651,"gmtCreate":1615473840773,"gmtModify":1703489609436,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>大家拿住，这只股不是单纯的价值股，这是wsb股，别听那些价值分析，没意义","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>大家拿住，这只股不是单纯的价值股，这是wsb股，别听那些价值分析，没意义","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$大家拿住，这只股不是单纯的价值股，这是wsb股，别听那些价值分析，没意义","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328093651","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"76645372802226","authorId":"76645372802226","name":"全息元宇宙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fae1d70f622feb88a9ea01d7c7a3eb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"76645372802226","idStr":"76645372802226"},"content":"只有gme是","text":"只有gme是","html":"只有gme是"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328004551,"gmtCreate":1615473740573,"gmtModify":1703489604253,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>冲冲冲","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>冲冲冲","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$冲冲冲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328004551","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321774899,"gmtCreate":1615473378311,"gmtModify":1703489587666,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>hold on","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>hold on","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$hold on","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321774899","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":321796434,"gmtCreate":1615468628928,"gmtModify":1703489468118,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>甘里良，骗炮啊，我盘前20%入的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>甘里良，骗炮啊，我盘前20%入的","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$甘里良，骗炮啊，我盘前20%入的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321796434","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321003427,"gmtCreate":1615382227869,"gmtModify":1703488175600,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>看看人家德国兄弟的觉悟💎✋🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>看看人家德国兄弟的觉悟💎✋🏻","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$看看人家德国兄弟的觉悟💎✋🏻","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b456998a7294a2d48874e171ad453c7c","width":"4032","height":"3024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321003427","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323756794,"gmtCreate":1615380167818,"gmtModify":1703488135971,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>等到400多的时候肯定有一波小回落，因为之前人解套了，到时候大家拿住呀💎🙌🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>等到400多的时候肯定有一波小回落，因为之前人解套了，到时候大家拿住呀💎🙌🏻","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$等到400多的时候肯定有一波小回落，因为之前人解套了，到时候大家拿住呀💎🙌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323756794","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573719572697574","authorId":"3573719572697574","name":"张大发同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd7bf41ad5567dd93aae0ed6e28e6fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573719572697574","idStr":"3573719572697574"},"content":"很明显今晚有太多人要抢跑了[开心][开心]","text":"很明显今晚有太多人要抢跑了[开心][开心]","html":"很明显今晚有太多人要抢跑了[开心][开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":847972161,"gmtCreate":1636477391871,"gmtModify":1636477391871,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOPA\">$Society Pass Inc(SOPA)$</a>待会3连砸","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOPA\">$Society Pass Inc(SOPA)$</a>待会3连砸","text":"$Society Pass Inc(SOPA)$待会3连砸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847972161","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4098065664320650","authorId":"4098065664320650","name":"TAK_7780","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/800be4450d84546bcbb57fb54d2c61f0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4098065664320650","idStr":"4098065664320650"},"content":"大资金还在加持","text":"大资金还在加持","html":"大资金还在加持"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386187924,"gmtCreate":1613143269168,"gmtModify":1613143346080,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>下车了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>下车了","text":"$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$下车了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386187924","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3447323132042312","authorId":"3447323132042312","name":"短线量化哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ba95e3796416b60366c0e0c6565f56","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3447323132042312","idStr":"3447323132042312"},"content":"？，你会后悔的","text":"？，你会后悔的","html":"？，你会后悔的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321003427,"gmtCreate":1615382227869,"gmtModify":1703488175600,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>看看人家德国兄弟的觉悟💎✋🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>看看人家德国兄弟的觉悟💎✋🏻","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$看看人家德国兄弟的觉悟💎✋🏻","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b456998a7294a2d48874e171ad453c7c","width":"4032","height":"3024"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321003427","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841963121,"gmtCreate":1635868869755,"gmtModify":1635868869755,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAR\">$安飞士(CAR)$</a>这俩像不像","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAR\">$安飞士(CAR)$</a>这俩像不像","text":"$安飞士(CAR)$这俩像不像","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/affc8cab6b8ae8fbcc760bd2c99b20ac","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841963121","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328093651,"gmtCreate":1615473840773,"gmtModify":1703489609436,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>大家拿住，这只股不是单纯的价值股，这是wsb股，别听那些价值分析，没意义","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>大家拿住，这只股不是单纯的价值股，这是wsb股，别听那些价值分析，没意义","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$大家拿住，这只股不是单纯的价值股，这是wsb股，别听那些价值分析，没意义","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328093651","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"76645372802226","authorId":"76645372802226","name":"全息元宇宙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fae1d70f622feb88a9ea01d7c7a3eb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"76645372802226","idStr":"76645372802226"},"content":"只有gme是","text":"只有gme是","html":"只有gme是"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323784267,"gmtCreate":1615376680059,"gmtModify":1703488096982,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>做空的兄弟自求多福吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>做空的兄弟自求多福吧","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$做空的兄弟自求多福吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323784267","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350010000,"gmtCreate":1616136424500,"gmtModify":1616136424500,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$</a>这公司不值百亿市值","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUYA\">$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$</a>这公司不值百亿市值","text":"$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$这公司不值百亿市值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350010000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3578707760559752","authorId":"3578707760559752","name":"小丑竟是自己","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d899609ef246e4a229875ecfc99aba22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578707760559752","idStr":"3578707760559752"},"content":"你当那么豪华的基石阵容都是傻子么...","text":"你当那么豪华的基石阵容都是傻子么...","html":"你当那么豪华的基石阵容都是傻子么..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323756794,"gmtCreate":1615380167818,"gmtModify":1703488135971,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>等到400多的时候肯定有一波小回落，因为之前人解套了，到时候大家拿住呀💎🙌🏻","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>等到400多的时候肯定有一波小回落，因为之前人解套了，到时候大家拿住呀💎🙌🏻","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$等到400多的时候肯定有一波小回落，因为之前人解套了，到时候大家拿住呀💎🙌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323756794","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3573719572697574","authorId":"3573719572697574","name":"张大发同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd7bf41ad5567dd93aae0ed6e28e6fe","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573719572697574","idStr":"3573719572697574"},"content":"很明显今晚有太多人要抢跑了[开心][开心]","text":"很明显今晚有太多人要抢跑了[开心][开心]","html":"很明显今晚有太多人要抢跑了[开心][开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862523846,"gmtCreate":1632892570690,"gmtModify":1632892570690,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>空仓了，今晚会继续跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>空仓了，今晚会继续跌","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$空仓了，今晚会继续跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862523846","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363513905,"gmtCreate":1614152387507,"gmtModify":1614152387507,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>我都在吃💩了，你还往💩里下毒","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>我都在吃💩了，你还往💩里下毒","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$我都在吃💩了，你还往💩里下毒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363513905","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857740469,"gmtCreate":1635563448790,"gmtModify":1635565752237,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂，做不到的原因不在于人性问题，更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的，更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等，这些没人能成为先知，稍微一个环节出错，特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff，概念不错，但是未来如何，谁知道","listText":"题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂，做不到的原因不在于人性问题，更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的，更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等，这些没人能成为先知，稍微一个环节出错，特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff，概念不错，但是未来如何，谁知道","text":"题主你说的大部分资深人员都懂，做不到的原因不在于人性问题，更在于未来的不确定性。特斯拉这种大牛股也不是单方面因为他的产品不错而成功的，更关键在于政策、领导团队、时代大背景等等，这些没人能成为先知，稍微一个环节出错，特斯拉可能在前几年就消失了。就像老贾的ff，概念不错，但是未来如何，谁知道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857740469","repostId":"1160331083","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1160331083","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1635490569,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160331083?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 14:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"股票投资世界的简单与复杂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160331083","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。\n说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。\n说复杂，是股票投资在投资标","content":"<p>股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。</p>\n<p>说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。</p>\n<p><b>说复杂，是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上，又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化，最终演化成：</b></p>\n<p>1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重，而对长期因素给予了太低的权重，毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了；</p>\n<p>2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人（杀跌），才存活了下来；那些逆向胆大的古猿人，则都早早死掉了，连后代都没有留下来。</p>\n<p>回到投资和我们的工作，抛开纷繁复杂的表象，实际只需要做两件事情：</p>\n<p><b>1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司；</b></p>\n<p><b>2、找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有。</b></p>\n<p><b>识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司</b></p>\n<p>这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。</p>\n<p>从实践中看，公司的增长，基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动，公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的，且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。</p>\n<p>借用牛顿第一定律的表述：任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态，直到长期施加较大的外力，迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化，等在公司长期业绩上体现出来，也是2～3年之后的事情了。</p>\n<p><b>找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有</b></p>\n<p>找机会买入，买入后始终持有，是一个相对简单的策略，不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。</p>\n<p>在中国股市的绝大部分时间，完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司，由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素，始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司，作为超一线品种，市场给的估值水平，一直低于众多其他公司。</p>\n<p>但这种情况，在2019～2020年，有了很大的变化：好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速，估值持续提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f618c607ac3a72b463c86d3223c32e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>变化的原因有很多，但主要有两个：</p>\n<p><b>1、外资参与不断加深。</b>外资携长期视野和长期资金，以国外几十年的发展经验，拿到中国股市，相当于开了几十年的天眼。</p>\n<p>事物内在的发展规律都是类似的，中国公司的发展道路，也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。</p>\n<p>从外资角度来看，以二线公司的市盈率，买入中国一线公司，坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会，是非常好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。</b>好公司股价的上涨，吸引了更大的资金买入，市场在不断自我强化。</p>\n<p>现在这个时间点，在好公司估值较高的情况下，该如何投资，对任何一个市场参与者而言，都是一个较大的考验。</p>\n<p>可能的选择有以下几个：</p>\n<p><b>1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。</b>通过好公司业绩的持续增长，来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利，估值不变，至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。</p>\n<p>如果不顺利，碰到短期业绩下滑，在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下，会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司，年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长，135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中，在股价跌去2/3之后，现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长，PEG估值法视角下，今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。</p>\n<p><b>2、退而求其次，选择性价比更高的二线品种。</b></p>\n<p>2021年上半年，这类“性价比更高的二线品种”，的确走势很好，有多个都上涨了50%。</p>\n<p>“性价比更高的二线品种”，短期内是对组合有帮助的，长期由于路径依赖，会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。</p>\n<p>如果大家的持仓只有1年，我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”，但考虑到大家都是长期持有，这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的，立足长远才能获得长期收获。</p>\n<p><b>3、暂时轻仓等待。</b></p>\n<p>在好公司估值较高时，暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。</p>\n<p>毕竟茅指数在2019年1月～2021年6月短短2.5年时间，就上涨了3.3倍，大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅，一部分是估值修复，另一部分则是泡沫。</p>\n<p>在存在泡沫的情况下，如果上涨，不一定能上涨很多；一旦有回调，就会是非常大的回调。</p>\n<p>当然，任何判断都是有风险的，万一判断错了，在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累，相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司，这样将来组合的风险更低。</p>\n<p><b>总之，识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司，找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有，这两件事情，会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。</b></p>\n<p>最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略：用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。</p>\n<p>1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后，只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出，即便估值过高，也保留部分仓位，最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进，在时间维度上分散风险；</p>\n<p>2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票，在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合，该投资组合能够规避常见的风险，并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益，进而实现长期收益率目标；</p>\n<p>3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立，使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚，能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股票投资世界的简单与复杂</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股票投资世界的简单与复杂\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-29 14:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。</p>\n<p>说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。</p>\n<p><b>说复杂，是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上，又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化，最终演化成：</b></p>\n<p>1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重，而对长期因素给予了太低的权重，毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了；</p>\n<p>2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人（杀跌），才存活了下来；那些逆向胆大的古猿人，则都早早死掉了，连后代都没有留下来。</p>\n<p>回到投资和我们的工作，抛开纷繁复杂的表象，实际只需要做两件事情：</p>\n<p><b>1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司；</b></p>\n<p><b>2、找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有。</b></p>\n<p><b>识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司</b></p>\n<p>这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。</p>\n<p>从实践中看，公司的增长，基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动，公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的，且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。</p>\n<p>借用牛顿第一定律的表述：任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态，直到长期施加较大的外力，迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化，等在公司长期业绩上体现出来，也是2～3年之后的事情了。</p>\n<p><b>找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有</b></p>\n<p>找机会买入，买入后始终持有，是一个相对简单的策略，不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。</p>\n<p>在中国股市的绝大部分时间，完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司，由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素，始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司，作为超一线品种，市场给的估值水平，一直低于众多其他公司。</p>\n<p>但这种情况，在2019～2020年，有了很大的变化：好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速，估值持续提高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f618c607ac3a72b463c86d3223c32e\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>变化的原因有很多，但主要有两个：</p>\n<p><b>1、外资参与不断加深。</b>外资携长期视野和长期资金，以国外几十年的发展经验，拿到中国股市，相当于开了几十年的天眼。</p>\n<p>事物内在的发展规律都是类似的，中国公司的发展道路，也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。</p>\n<p>从外资角度来看，以二线公司的市盈率，买入中国一线公司，坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会，是非常好的选择。</p>\n<p><b>2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。</b>好公司股价的上涨，吸引了更大的资金买入，市场在不断自我强化。</p>\n<p>现在这个时间点，在好公司估值较高的情况下，该如何投资，对任何一个市场参与者而言，都是一个较大的考验。</p>\n<p>可能的选择有以下几个：</p>\n<p><b>1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。</b>通过好公司业绩的持续增长，来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利，估值不变，至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。</p>\n<p>如果不顺利，碰到短期业绩下滑，在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下，会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司，年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长，135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中，在股价跌去2/3之后，现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长，PEG估值法视角下，今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。</p>\n<p><b>2、退而求其次，选择性价比更高的二线品种。</b></p>\n<p>2021年上半年，这类“性价比更高的二线品种”，的确走势很好，有多个都上涨了50%。</p>\n<p>“性价比更高的二线品种”，短期内是对组合有帮助的，长期由于路径依赖，会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。</p>\n<p>如果大家的持仓只有1年，我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”，但考虑到大家都是长期持有，这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的，立足长远才能获得长期收获。</p>\n<p><b>3、暂时轻仓等待。</b></p>\n<p>在好公司估值较高时，暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。</p>\n<p>毕竟茅指数在2019年1月～2021年6月短短2.5年时间，就上涨了3.3倍，大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅，一部分是估值修复，另一部分则是泡沫。</p>\n<p>在存在泡沫的情况下，如果上涨，不一定能上涨很多；一旦有回调，就会是非常大的回调。</p>\n<p>当然，任何判断都是有风险的，万一判断错了，在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累，相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司，这样将来组合的风险更低。</p>\n<p><b>总之，识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司，找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有，这两件事情，会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。</b></p>\n<p>最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略：用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。</p>\n<p>1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后，只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出，即便估值过高，也保留部分仓位，最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进，在时间维度上分散风险；</p>\n<p>2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票，在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合，该投资组合能够规避常见的风险，并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益，进而实现长期收益率目标；</p>\n<p>3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立，使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚，能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5bec9a0d94ae609599ec4f96b9141c6","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160331083","content_text":"股票投资世界，是一个既简单又复杂的世界。\n说简单，是股票投资依托在投资标的所代表的公司之上的：长期从整体看，公司发展得好，股票也自然走得好；公司发展得差，股票也自然走得差。\n说复杂，是股票投资在投资标的所代表的公司之上，又叠加了人性。而人性经过几千年的进化，最终演化成：\n1、对短期因素给予了太高的权重，而对长期因素给予了太低的权重，毕竟太有长远眼光的古猿人都饿死了；\n2、追涨杀跌。碰到危险先跑到树上的古猿人（杀跌），才存活了下来；那些逆向胆大的古猿人，则都早早死掉了，连后代都没有留下来。\n回到投资和我们的工作，抛开纷繁复杂的表象，实际只需要做两件事情：\n1、识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司；\n2、找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有。\n识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司\n这个主要靠洞察力和对公司长期的跟踪和积累。\n从实践中看，公司的增长，基本上是命中注定的。如果不考虑单个年度甚至单个季度的波动，公司长期利润增速是不以人的意志为转移的，且长期增速的变化是极其缓慢的。\n借用牛顿第一定律的表述：任何公司的长期利润增速都要保持相对匀速状态，直到长期施加较大的外力，迫使它改变运动状态为止。即便公司出现了重大变化，等在公司长期业绩上体现出来，也是2～3年之后的事情了。\n找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有\n找机会买入，买入后始终持有，是一个相对简单的策略，不容易受到各种外在因素的干扰而动作变形。\n在中国股市的绝大部分时间，完成投资这两步的难度并不大。对于真正好的公司，由于市场参与者一直都过于关注短期因素，始终是给了低估的价格。典型的如某白酒公司，作为超一线品种，市场给的估值水平，一直低于众多其他公司。\n但这种情况，在2019～2020年，有了很大的变化：好公司的股价涨幅不断超越业绩增速，估值持续提高。\n\n变化的原因有很多，但主要有两个：\n1、外资参与不断加深。外资携长期视野和长期资金，以国外几十年的发展经验，拿到中国股市，相当于开了几十年的天眼。\n事物内在的发展规律都是类似的，中国公司的发展道路，也很难脱离全球公司的发展轨迹。\n从外资角度来看，以二线公司的市盈率，买入中国一线公司，坐享中国经济和中国公司成长的机会，是非常好的选择。\n2、追涨杀跌之后的自我强化。好公司股价的上涨，吸引了更大的资金买入，市场在不断自我强化。\n现在这个时间点，在好公司估值较高的情况下，该如何投资，对任何一个市场参与者而言，都是一个较大的考验。\n可能的选择有以下几个：\n1、硬着头皮继续买入好公司。通过好公司业绩的持续增长，来化解高估值的风险。如果顺利，估值不变，至少每年还能赚到利润增速的钱。\n如果不顺利，碰到短期业绩下滑，在市场短期PEG估值法定价模式下，会遭遇戴维斯双杀。如某消费公司，年初的时候大家都认为有30%的持续增长，135倍市盈率也比较合理。半年后年中，在股价跌去2/3之后，现在大家都认为今年会短期负增长，PEG估值法视角下，今年的60倍市盈率也不敢买了。\n2、退而求其次，选择性价比更高的二线品种。\n2021年上半年，这类“性价比更高的二线品种”，的确走势很好，有多个都上涨了50%。\n“性价比更高的二线品种”，短期内是对组合有帮助的，长期由于路径依赖，会对长期投资收益带来较大伤害。\n如果大家的持仓只有1年，我就会推荐选择买这些“性价比更高的二线品种”，但考虑到大家都是长期持有，这种购买就有点得不偿失了。毕竟很多客户是要留到很久以后才会赎回这笔投资款的，立足长远才能获得长期收获。\n3、暂时轻仓等待。\n在好公司估值较高时，暂时轻仓等到更好的买入机会。可能也是一种选择。\n毕竟茅指数在2019年1月～2021年6月短短2.5年时间，就上涨了3.3倍，大大超过了15%的年利润增速。股价上涨超过业绩增速这3倍涨幅，一部分是估值修复，另一部分则是泡沫。\n在存在泡沫的情况下，如果上涨，不一定能上涨很多；一旦有回调，就会是非常大的回调。\n当然，任何判断都是有风险的，万一判断错了，在年底再认错买入就可以了。经过这段时间的知识积累，相信又会识别出几个进入可买区域的好公司，这样将来组合的风险更低。\n总之，识别出未来能够持续较高增长的公司，找一个合适的机会买入，买入后就始终持有，这两件事情，会是投资经理未来几十年持续积累的重点所在。\n最后再次强调一下我们赖以生存的投资策略：用集邮方式收集一线公司股票。\n1、一旦在合适的价格买入之后，只有在公司基本面出现重大问题时才全部卖出。基本面正常则不再全部卖出，即便估值过高，也保留部分仓位，最多根据估值和其他机会调整仓位占比。随着时间推移持续买进，在时间维度上分散风险；\n2、同时逐步买入其他类似的股票，在品种维度上分散风险。这样逐步建立起一个投资组合，该投资组合能够规避常见的风险，并获得公司利润增长带来的相应股价上涨收益，进而实现长期收益率目标；\n3、逐步实现投资者的部分财务自立，使其不再受到金钱的过分束缚，能够从容淡定地面对人生的起起伏伏。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879885407,"gmtCreate":1636703391609,"gmtModify":1636703391609,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股，千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心]&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">$小白买买(HX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNEY\">$中北能(CNEY)$</a>","listText":"如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股，千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心]&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">$小白买买(HX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNEY\">$中北能(CNEY)$</a>","text":"如果你们看到这种形态的冷门股，千万不要以为发现了宝藏哦[开心] $小白买买(HX)$$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$$中北能(CNEY)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dce8b8fe3f4f90bade389f1ee083581","width":"1170","height":"2532"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ed0d8ad49920aaa6ba6b486853cb41","width":"1170","height":"2532"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ca49b80320d1178646c1f73b4afc44","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879885407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857672921,"gmtCreate":1635524527421,"gmtModify":1635524527421,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>拿了9.5的期权，最后还是平仓了，这种非常接近行权价的，而且一天上下几十点，风险太大，说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去，不赚倒亏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>拿了9.5的期权，最后还是平仓了，这种非常接近行权价的，而且一天上下几十点，风险太大，说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去，不赚倒亏","text":"$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$拿了9.5的期权，最后还是平仓了，这种非常接近行权价的，而且一天上下几十点，风险太大，说不定行权后马上砸十几个点下去，不赚倒亏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857672921","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824491359,"gmtCreate":1634344431681,"gmtModify":1634344431681,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVDL\">$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$</a>Fda宣布延期了[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVDL\">$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$</a>Fda宣布延期了[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"$Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc(AVDL)$Fda宣布延期了[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824491359","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321796434,"gmtCreate":1615468628928,"gmtModify":1703489468118,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>甘里良，骗炮啊，我盘前20%入的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>甘里良，骗炮啊，我盘前20%入的","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$甘里良，骗炮啊，我盘前20%入的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321796434","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328966073,"gmtCreate":1615480063492,"gmtModify":1703489811871,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>以后盘前暴涨，一律视为骗炮。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>以后盘前暴涨，一律视为骗炮。","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$以后盘前暴涨，一律视为骗炮。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328966073","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844308806,"gmtCreate":1636385917867,"gmtModify":1636385917867,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNEY\">$中北能(CNEY)$</a>又一个和信贷套路","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNEY\">$中北能(CNEY)$</a>又一个和信贷套路","text":"$中北能(CNEY)$又一个和信贷套路","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844308806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848884173,"gmtCreate":1635989320542,"gmtModify":1635989320542,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>😅","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$</a>😅","text":"$Histogenics Corporation(OCGN)$😅","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118b858300f74b87536550c057d16557","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848884173","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841398776,"gmtCreate":1635878312294,"gmtModify":1635878312294,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$</a>差点全仓梭哈进去","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$</a>差点全仓梭哈进去","text":"$Birks Group Inc.(BGI)$差点全仓梭哈进去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841398776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328857716,"gmtCreate":1615514670835,"gmtModify":1703490267680,"author":{"id":"3574739794144957","authorId":"3574739794144957","name":"Hjmnn","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574739794144957","idStr":"3574739794144957"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>还好没有买入，别看他开盘涨这么多，你要是60买入就接盘了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CPNG\">$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$</a>还好没有买入，别看他开盘涨这么多，你要是60买入就接盘了","text":"$Coupang, Inc.(CPNG)$还好没有买入，别看他开盘涨这么多，你要是60买入就接盘了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328857716","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}