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Angel Queena
2021-03-09
三个月的美股菜鸟总结
交易中最重要和最困难的是什么?你可以说预测市场。的确,预测市场是最重要的,但这不是最难的,因为这是不可能的!很多人就是牺牲在这个无解之谜上的。市场存在的基础是不确定性,而不是可预测性,它是最重要的交易问题,等同于哲学上的物质论和意识论。这个问题不弄清则接下来的一切努力都将带来完全不同的交易结果。投机**易之所以如此吸引人,是因为它能给我们带来我们最想要的东西:自由。它是最自由的行业,我们可以随心所欲地交易,只需要对自己的资金负责,然而,这种终极的自由却是最危险的陷阱,因为它会导致我们的失控和放纵,它会引导我们遵循自己的人性而随心所欲。每一个成功的交易者之所以有耀眼的今天,那是因为他们都曾走过属于自己的独行的暗淡的亏损岁月,在交易中学会认可盈亏同源。这是一个交易者学会从本能交易到盈利交易必经的过程,没有办法避免它,也没有办法转嫁,从弱到强,所谓的成长,你需要经历的不仅仅是经验的营养,还要有挫折的摔打。股票交易中,在碰到错失机会,以及出早赚少的情况时,总是觉得无限可惜、遗憾,总觉得自己完全可以做得更好,获取更大的利润。这是完全错误的想法,你得不到的机会,你没赚到这些利润,跟你没有任何关系。你的模式,你的能力只能支撑你做出眼前的成绩,一分不多,一分不少。超出自己模式之外的波动,超出自己能力之外的金钱,需要不断的改善方法,提高自己,才能不断精进,不断扩张自己的战果。三月,我必重生!等我[得意]
三个月的美股菜鸟总结
Angel Queena
2021-06-16
$黑莓(BB)$
哦 没眼看。关灯吃面
Angel Queena
2021-12-06
$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$
今天吃泻药了?
Angel Queena
2021-04-16
$第九城市(NCTY)$
$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$
$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$
三大骗钱股票,谢谢。关灯吃面
Angel Queena
2021-03-12
$高斯电子(KOSS)$
$游戏驿站(GME)$
大家来猜一猜这两只股票今晚最高位是多少?
Angel Queena
2021-01-27
$游戏驿站(GME)$
欢呼
Angel Queena
2021-11-16
$AMC院线(AMC)$
这次能去到50吗
Angel Queena
2021-10-27
$维珍银河(SPCE)$
坏蛋
Angel Queena
2021-04-09
$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$
这只股票估计要去到14-15块才见底[笑哭]
Angel Queena
2021-02-01
$AMC院线(AMC)$
到底多少钱抛好?好纠结的股票
Angel Queena
2021-06-01
看好了
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
Angel Queena
2021-03-19
$亿航智能(EH)$
天天看着你,心情也是绿的
Angel Queena
2021-10-18
$AMD(AMD)$
看到多少
Angel Queena
2021-04-06
$第九城市(NCTY)$
这美丽的亏损
Angel Queena
2021-04-10
这利好消息起码回去到35,应有的价值
$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$
Angel Queena
2021-02-17
$亿航智能(EH)$
流入的全是大单,震走的全是散户。盘前会有公告
Angel Queena
2021-11-11
$紫金矿业(02899)$
准备
Angel Queena
2021-11-04
$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$
老虎的手续费怎么这么高,192买入成本去到192.496?!
Angel Queena
2021-05-10
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
发生什么事这票
Angel Queena
2021-04-04
$嘉楠科技(CAN)$
复活节回来要乖乖地哦
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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07:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股何以上涨?交易员们预计重磅CPI数据可能不及预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210018552","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行、德银、摩根大通等主流华尔街投行都认为,周四发布的美国1月CPI通胀“很有可能低于预期”,短期内对美股战术型看涨,市场纷纷猜测通胀是否已经或接近触顶。若通胀果真逊于预期,要准备好迎接剧烈市场变动,但通胀高于预期将推升10年期美债收益率突破2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2月9日周三,在关键的美国1月消费者物价指数CPI通胀数据发布前一天,风险偏好明显提升。</p><p>美股三大指数连涨两日,道指盘中最高涨360点,标普500大盘和纳指均涨超1%。科技股居多的纳指涨幅相对居前,投资者入场抄底科技股,领跌的“元宇宙”Meta也止步四连跌并涨超4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/614e4f3b3511383ec21636c6a5292b71\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>同时,各期限美债收益率回落。10年期基债收益率失守昨日所创1.97%的27个月新高,对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率日内一度下行2.5个基点,暂别两年高位。美元指数也走低。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fbbd01e48c379e4f9b5fbceff882622\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>不少华尔街机构的分析指出,<b>本周前期市场风险情绪跳涨,与美东时间周四上午8点半发布的1月CPI通胀数据“很有可能低于预期”有关</b>。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>预言,如果明日发布的CPI数据“不那么可怕”,科技股会超跌反弹。德银分析师Jim Reid称,过去10次CPI里有8次均高于经济学家中值预期,“可能专家们对自己总是预测失误感到厌倦,进而大幅上调对1月通胀的预期,但显得过于激进”,带来实际数据逊于预期的可能。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>美国现金交易主管Elan Luger也持更乐观的态度,尽管市场目前共识预期是通胀将继续上升至40年高位,但一些迹象表明CPI数据存在逊于预期的潜力。例如,实时数据显示以往推高通胀的二手车价格在1月有所持稳, 而前几个月的核心CPI上涨主要由汽车价格上涨推动:</p><blockquote>“因此我在最近几天的短期内对股市战术性看涨。CPI高于预期而引发市场下跌的幅度,将不如CPI逊于预期导致市场上涨的幅度大。</blockquote><blockquote>尽管我仍然不在中期或长期看涨股市,因为若经济保持增长将令美联储继续加息,对中/长期市场反而不是好消息,但短期内CPI数据引发的风险/回报偏向上行。”</blockquote><p>彭博社援引评论员Simon White的分析指出,通胀是最滞后的经济指标之一,而ZEW通胀预期调查通常是预示美国CPI变动的可靠先行指标:</p><blockquote>“ZEW美国通胀预期指数正非常接近扭转近期的部分上涨趋势,甚至可能发生显著扭转。这表明,对美国CPI现有预测可能低估了通胀下降的可能性,使债市收益率容易受到向下修正。</blockquote><blockquote>同时,当前CPI的走势非常极端,也表明短期内可能出现急剧逆转。此前,CPI统计中几乎所有细分领域的价格都在同比上涨,这种极端情况通常标志着未来的名义通胀数据即将下跌。”</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/387e10d521fa816ec117e31d28c5968f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>彭博经济学家团队也认为,1月CPI通胀会继续上行,因为能源和食品价格仍在上涨,但预计美国消费通胀将在今年2月见顶,“更让人放心的是,通胀上升似乎没有导致长期通胀预期脱锚。”</p><p><b>金融博客Zerohedge指出,越来越多的市场技术指标也在预测,通胀是否已经或接近触顶。</b>流入美国通胀保值债券(TIPS)ETF的资金在减少,似乎说明散户和机构投资者都认为通胀已接近峰顶。而美国债市投资者已基本计价完毕高通胀的因素,都为通胀逊于预期后的市场巨变埋下伏笔。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f32a7d1a67ed2f06f15d860764c1cd4f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464451c698e1d97375c4fb76a17b4754\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>外汇策略主管Alvise Marino呼应上文所述摩根大通Elan Luger的观点称,相比于通胀再次超预期,如果明日的CPI数据意外逊于预期,市场可能会做出更强烈的反应:</p><blockquote>“目前的市场预期是通胀持续高企,一份指向相反方向的数据将代表一个巨大的变化。”</blockquote><p><b>事实上,专家们对明日这份“3月美联储FOMC会议前最重要的通胀数据”预期已经出现小幅分野。</b>路透社和彭博社调查的经济学家都认为,1月CPI会环比增长0.5%,同比增7.3%并创1982年2月以来的40年高位。但道琼斯统计的预期为1月CPI环比增0.4%、同比增7.2%。</p><p>当然,就算明日CPI数据真的逊于预期,也不可能从近40年高位回落太多。12月CPI同比飙升7%,剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增5.5%,市场预计1月核心CPI同比进一步升至5.9%,都远远超出美联储2%的官方目标,<b>无法彻底打消3月一次性大幅加息50个基点来对抗通胀的可能。</b></p><p>摩根大通的美国首席经济学家Mike Feroli指出,如果CPI低于预期,美债收益率将走低,此前被杀估值的成长股可能跑赢大盘。而如果CPI继续高于预期,甚至只是持平预期,都可能令10年期美债收益率上行触及或突破2%的关口,并继续推动资金向价值股轮转。</p><p>还有分析称,市场除了关注3月加息25个基点还是50个基点,还想知道美联储将在首次加息后多久开始缩表(减持债券)。如果1月CPI数据高于预期,量化紧缩发生的时间只会更加提前。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股何以上涨?交易员们预计重磅CPI数据可能不及预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-10 07:24 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651538><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月9日周三,在关键的美国1月消费者物价指数CPI通胀数据发布前一天,风险偏好明显提升。美股三大指数连涨两日,道指盘中最高涨360点,标普500大盘和纳指均涨超1%。科技股居多的纳指涨幅相对居前,投资者入场抄底科技股,领跌的“元宇宙”Meta也止步四连跌并涨超4%。同时,各期限美债收益率回落。10年期基债收益率失守昨日所创1.97%的27个月新高,对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率日内一度下行...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651538\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651538","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210018552","content_text":"2月9日周三,在关键的美国1月消费者物价指数CPI通胀数据发布前一天,风险偏好明显提升。美股三大指数连涨两日,道指盘中最高涨360点,标普500大盘和纳指均涨超1%。科技股居多的纳指涨幅相对居前,投资者入场抄底科技股,领跌的“元宇宙”Meta也止步四连跌并涨超4%。同时,各期限美债收益率回落。10年期基债收益率失守昨日所创1.97%的27个月新高,对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率日内一度下行2.5个基点,暂别两年高位。美元指数也走低。不少华尔街机构的分析指出,本周前期市场风险情绪跳涨,与美东时间周四上午8点半发布的1月CPI通胀数据“很有可能低于预期”有关。美国银行预言,如果明日发布的CPI数据“不那么可怕”,科技股会超跌反弹。德银分析师Jim Reid称,过去10次CPI里有8次均高于经济学家中值预期,“可能专家们对自己总是预测失误感到厌倦,进而大幅上调对1月通胀的预期,但显得过于激进”,带来实际数据逊于预期的可能。摩根大通美国现金交易主管Elan Luger也持更乐观的态度,尽管市场目前共识预期是通胀将继续上升至40年高位,但一些迹象表明CPI数据存在逊于预期的潜力。例如,实时数据显示以往推高通胀的二手车价格在1月有所持稳, 而前几个月的核心CPI上涨主要由汽车价格上涨推动:“因此我在最近几天的短期内对股市战术性看涨。CPI高于预期而引发市场下跌的幅度,将不如CPI逊于预期导致市场上涨的幅度大。尽管我仍然不在中期或长期看涨股市,因为若经济保持增长将令美联储继续加息,对中/长期市场反而不是好消息,但短期内CPI数据引发的风险/回报偏向上行。”彭博社援引评论员Simon White的分析指出,通胀是最滞后的经济指标之一,而ZEW通胀预期调查通常是预示美国CPI变动的可靠先行指标:“ZEW美国通胀预期指数正非常接近扭转近期的部分上涨趋势,甚至可能发生显著扭转。这表明,对美国CPI现有预测可能低估了通胀下降的可能性,使债市收益率容易受到向下修正。同时,当前CPI的走势非常极端,也表明短期内可能出现急剧逆转。此前,CPI统计中几乎所有细分领域的价格都在同比上涨,这种极端情况通常标志着未来的名义通胀数据即将下跌。”彭博经济学家团队也认为,1月CPI通胀会继续上行,因为能源和食品价格仍在上涨,但预计美国消费通胀将在今年2月见顶,“更让人放心的是,通胀上升似乎没有导致长期通胀预期脱锚。”金融博客Zerohedge指出,越来越多的市场技术指标也在预测,通胀是否已经或接近触顶。流入美国通胀保值债券(TIPS)ETF的资金在减少,似乎说明散户和机构投资者都认为通胀已接近峰顶。而美国债市投资者已基本计价完毕高通胀的因素,都为通胀逊于预期后的市场巨变埋下伏笔。瑞士信贷外汇策略主管Alvise Marino呼应上文所述摩根大通Elan Luger的观点称,相比于通胀再次超预期,如果明日的CPI数据意外逊于预期,市场可能会做出更强烈的反应:“目前的市场预期是通胀持续高企,一份指向相反方向的数据将代表一个巨大的变化。”事实上,专家们对明日这份“3月美联储FOMC会议前最重要的通胀数据”预期已经出现小幅分野。路透社和彭博社调查的经济学家都认为,1月CPI会环比增长0.5%,同比增7.3%并创1982年2月以来的40年高位。但道琼斯统计的预期为1月CPI环比增0.4%、同比增7.2%。当然,就算明日CPI数据真的逊于预期,也不可能从近40年高位回落太多。12月CPI同比飙升7%,剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增5.5%,市场预计1月核心CPI同比进一步升至5.9%,都远远超出美联储2%的官方目标,无法彻底打消3月一次性大幅加息50个基点来对抗通胀的可能。摩根大通的美国首席经济学家Mike Feroli指出,如果CPI低于预期,美债收益率将走低,此前被杀估值的成长股可能跑赢大盘。而如果CPI继续高于预期,甚至只是持平预期,都可能令10年期美债收益率上行触及或突破2%的关口,并继续推动资金向价值股轮转。还有分析称,市场除了关注3月加息25个基点还是50个基点,还想知道美联储将在首次加息后多久开始缩表(减持债券)。如果1月CPI数据高于预期,量化紧缩发生的时间只会更加提前。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633768408,"gmtCreate":1644331284014,"gmtModify":1644331723550,"author":{"id":"3569619259252053","authorId":"3569619259252053","authorIdStr":"3569619259252053","name":"Angel Queena","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d29f5a808945195eb450476d75dbfe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>这个股票是不是疯了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>这个股票是不是疯了","text":"$Moderna, 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