Angel Queena的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Angel Queena

Angel Queena

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IP属地：广东

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11主题

0勋章

2022-06-14

$苹果(AAPL)$这个吃相有点难看

2022-02-10

不及预期就会上涨吗

美股何以上涨？交易员们预计重磅CPI数据可能不及预期

2022-02-08

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$这个股票是不是疯了

2022-01-10

$英伟达(NVDA)$终于等到你，还好我没放弃～

2021-12-13

$青岛啤酒(600600)$神操作[开心]

2021-12-11

$亿航智能(EH)$11.30清仓了，感谢自己的果断。虽然跌到不成样，但是祝福你有一天成功上天回老家，我会再回来的。分享一下新型号给大家

2021-12-10

$五粮液(000858)$站稳啊

2021-12-06

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$今天吃泻药了？

2021-12-03

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$这是准备要退市吗？破新低了

2021-11-24

大把好不好$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$

@junjia:$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$路上就看不见小鹏的车远远没有蔚来多这财报值得怀疑

2021-11-22

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$有多少人在小破站栽跟头的，又有多少做对的，请举手

2021-11-18

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$这票庄家够狠

2021-11-16

$万泰生物(603392)$涨停股，感动

2021-11-16

$AMC院线(AMC)$这次能去到50吗

2021-11-12

$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$谁敢空[开心]

2021-11-12

$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$做了一下T

2021-11-11

$紫金矿业(02899)$准备

2021-11-09

没情况，空军到来

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-05

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎会不会变毛票啊？

2021-11-05

$英伟达(NVDA)$刚跌到309时候差点被震出去，乖乖

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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07:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美股何以上涨？交易员们预计重磅CPI数据可能不及预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2210018552","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行、德银、摩根大通等主流华尔街投行都认为，周四发布的美国1月CPI通胀“很有可能低于预期”，短期内对美股战术型看涨，市场纷纷猜测通胀是否已经或接近触顶。若通胀果真逊于预期，要准备好迎接剧烈市场变动，但通胀高于预期将推升10年期美债收益率突破2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2月9日周三，在关键的美国1月消费者物价指数CPI通胀数据发布前一天，风险偏好明显提升。</p><p>美股三大指数连涨两日，道指盘中最高涨360点，标普500大盘和纳指均涨超1%。科技股居多的纳指涨幅相对居前，投资者入场抄底科技股，领跌的“元宇宙”Meta也止步四连跌并涨超4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/614e4f3b3511383ec21636c6a5292b71\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"76\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>同时，各期限美债收益率回落。10年期基债收益率失守昨日所创1.97%的27个月新高，对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率日内一度下行2.5个基点，暂别两年高位。美元指数也走低。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fbbd01e48c379e4f9b5fbceff882622\" tg-width=\"652\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>不少华尔街机构的分析指出，<b>本周前期市场风险情绪跳涨，与美东时间周四上午8点半发布的1月CPI通胀数据“很有可能低于预期”有关</b>。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>预言，如果明日发布的CPI数据“不那么可怕”，科技股会超跌反弹。德银分析师Jim Reid称，过去10次CPI里有8次均高于经济学家中值预期，“可能专家们对自己总是预测失误感到厌倦，进而大幅上调对1月通胀的预期，但显得过于激进”，带来实际数据逊于预期的可能。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>美国现金交易主管Elan Luger也持更乐观的态度，尽管市场目前共识预期是通胀将继续上升至40年高位，但一些迹象表明CPI数据存在逊于预期的潜力。例如，实时数据显示以往推高通胀的二手车价格在1月有所持稳， 而前几个月的核心CPI上涨主要由汽车价格上涨推动：</p><blockquote>“因此我在最近几天的短期内对股市战术性看涨。CPI高于预期而引发市场下跌的幅度，将不如CPI逊于预期导致市场上涨的幅度大。</blockquote><blockquote>尽管我仍然不在中期或长期看涨股市，因为若经济保持增长将令美联储继续加息，对中/长期市场反而不是好消息，但短期内CPI数据引发的风险/回报偏向上行。”</blockquote><p>彭博社援引评论员Simon White的分析指出，通胀是最滞后的经济指标之一，而ZEW通胀预期调查通常是预示美国CPI变动的可靠先行指标：</p><blockquote>“ZEW美国通胀预期指数正非常接近扭转近期的部分上涨趋势，甚至可能发生显著扭转。这表明，对美国CPI现有预测可能低估了通胀下降的可能性，使债市收益率容易受到向下修正。</blockquote><blockquote>同时，当前CPI的走势非常极端，也表明短期内可能出现急剧逆转。此前，CPI统计中几乎所有细分领域的价格都在同比上涨，这种极端情况通常标志着未来的名义通胀数据即将下跌。”</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/387e10d521fa816ec117e31d28c5968f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>彭博经济学家团队也认为，1月CPI通胀会继续上行，因为能源和食品价格仍在上涨，但预计美国消费通胀将在今年2月见顶，“更让人放心的是，通胀上升似乎没有导致长期通胀预期脱锚。”</p><p><b>金融博客Zerohedge指出，越来越多的市场技术指标也在预测，通胀是否已经或接近触顶。</b>流入美国通胀保值债券（TIPS）ETF的资金在减少，似乎说明散户和机构投资者都认为通胀已接近峰顶。而美国债市投资者已基本计价完毕高通胀的因素，都为通胀逊于预期后的市场巨变埋下伏笔。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f32a7d1a67ed2f06f15d860764c1cd4f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464451c698e1d97375c4fb76a17b4754\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>外汇策略主管Alvise Marino呼应上文所述摩根大通Elan Luger的观点称，相比于通胀再次超预期，如果明日的CPI数据意外逊于预期，市场可能会做出更强烈的反应：</p><blockquote>“目前的市场预期是通胀持续高企，一份指向相反方向的数据将代表一个巨大的变化。”</blockquote><p><b>事实上，专家们对明日这份“3月美联储FOMC会议前最重要的通胀数据”预期已经出现小幅分野。</b>路透社和彭博社调查的经济学家都认为，1月CPI会环比增长0.5%，同比增7.3%并创1982年2月以来的40年高位。但道琼斯统计的预期为1月CPI环比增0.4%、同比增7.2%。</p><p>当然，就算明日CPI数据真的逊于预期，也不可能从近40年高位回落太多。12月CPI同比飙升7%，剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增5.5%，市场预计1月核心CPI同比进一步升至5.9%，都远远超出美联储2%的官方目标，<b>无法彻底打消3月一次性大幅加息50个基点来对抗通胀的可能。</b></p><p>摩根大通的美国首席经济学家Mike Feroli指出，如果CPI低于预期，美债收益率将走低，此前被杀估值的成长股可能跑赢大盘。而如果CPI继续高于预期，甚至只是持平预期，都可能令10年期美债收益率上行触及或突破2%的关口，并继续推动资金向价值股轮转。</p><p>还有分析称，市场除了关注3月加息25个基点还是50个基点，还想知道美联储将在首次加息后多久开始缩表（减持债券）。如果1月CPI数据高于预期，量化紧缩发生的时间只会更加提前。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股何以上涨？交易员们预计重磅CPI数据可能不及预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-10 07:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651538><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月9日周三，在关键的美国1月消费者物价指数CPI通胀数据发布前一天，风险偏好明显提升。美股三大指数连涨两日，道指盘中最高涨360点，标普500大盘和纳指均涨超1%。科技股居多的纳指涨幅相对居前，投资者入场抄底科技股，领跌的“元宇宙”Meta也止步四连跌并涨超4%。同时，各期限美债收益率回落。10年期基债收益率失守昨日所创1.97%的27个月新高，对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率日内一度下行...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651538\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3219c1e34771d4a607fc67aee82f7281","relate_stocks":{"CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651538","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2210018552","content_text":"2月9日周三，在关键的美国1月消费者物价指数CPI通胀数据发布前一天，风险偏好明显提升。美股三大指数连涨两日，道指盘中最高涨360点，标普500大盘和纳指均涨超1%。科技股居多的纳指涨幅相对居前，投资者入场抄底科技股，领跌的“元宇宙”Meta也止步四连跌并涨超4%。同时，各期限美债收益率回落。10年期基债收益率失守昨日所创1.97%的27个月新高，对货币政策更敏感的两年期美债收益率日内一度下行2.5个基点，暂别两年高位。美元指数也走低。不少华尔街机构的分析指出，本周前期市场风险情绪跳涨，与美东时间周四上午8点半发布的1月CPI通胀数据“很有可能低于预期”有关。美国银行预言，如果明日发布的CPI数据“不那么可怕”，科技股会超跌反弹。德银分析师Jim Reid称，过去10次CPI里有8次均高于经济学家中值预期，“可能专家们对自己总是预测失误感到厌倦，进而大幅上调对1月通胀的预期，但显得过于激进”，带来实际数据逊于预期的可能。摩根大通美国现金交易主管Elan Luger也持更乐观的态度，尽管市场目前共识预期是通胀将继续上升至40年高位，但一些迹象表明CPI数据存在逊于预期的潜力。例如，实时数据显示以往推高通胀的二手车价格在1月有所持稳， 而前几个月的核心CPI上涨主要由汽车价格上涨推动：“因此我在最近几天的短期内对股市战术性看涨。CPI高于预期而引发市场下跌的幅度，将不如CPI逊于预期导致市场上涨的幅度大。尽管我仍然不在中期或长期看涨股市，因为若经济保持增长将令美联储继续加息，对中/长期市场反而不是好消息，但短期内CPI数据引发的风险/回报偏向上行。”彭博社援引评论员Simon White的分析指出，通胀是最滞后的经济指标之一，而ZEW通胀预期调查通常是预示美国CPI变动的可靠先行指标：“ZEW美国通胀预期指数正非常接近扭转近期的部分上涨趋势，甚至可能发生显著扭转。这表明，对美国CPI现有预测可能低估了通胀下降的可能性，使债市收益率容易受到向下修正。同时，当前CPI的走势非常极端，也表明短期内可能出现急剧逆转。此前，CPI统计中几乎所有细分领域的价格都在同比上涨，这种极端情况通常标志着未来的名义通胀数据即将下跌。”彭博经济学家团队也认为，1月CPI通胀会继续上行，因为能源和食品价格仍在上涨，但预计美国消费通胀将在今年2月见顶，“更让人放心的是，通胀上升似乎没有导致长期通胀预期脱锚。”金融博客Zerohedge指出，越来越多的市场技术指标也在预测，通胀是否已经或接近触顶。流入美国通胀保值债券（TIPS）ETF的资金在减少，似乎说明散户和机构投资者都认为通胀已接近峰顶。而美国债市投资者已基本计价完毕高通胀的因素，都为通胀逊于预期后的市场巨变埋下伏笔。瑞士信贷外汇策略主管Alvise Marino呼应上文所述摩根大通Elan Luger的观点称，相比于通胀再次超预期，如果明日的CPI数据意外逊于预期，市场可能会做出更强烈的反应：“目前的市场预期是通胀持续高企，一份指向相反方向的数据将代表一个巨大的变化。”事实上，专家们对明日这份“3月美联储FOMC会议前最重要的通胀数据”预期已经出现小幅分野。路透社和彭博社调查的经济学家都认为，1月CPI会环比增长0.5%，同比增7.3%并创1982年2月以来的40年高位。但道琼斯统计的预期为1月CPI环比增0.4%、同比增7.2%。当然，就算明日CPI数据真的逊于预期，也不可能从近40年高位回落太多。12月CPI同比飙升7%，剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增5.5%，市场预计1月核心CPI同比进一步升至5.9%，都远远超出美联储2%的官方目标，无法彻底打消3月一次性大幅加息50个基点来对抗通胀的可能。摩根大通的美国首席经济学家Mike 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