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银色蚂蚁
2021-12-10
[傲娇]
银色蚂蚁
2021-10-05
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
还有救吗?
银色蚂蚁
2021-05-04
$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$
有没有人比我幸福
银色蚂蚁
2021-05-01
$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$
跟着气球上。
银色蚂蚁
2021-06-30
$Fintech Acquisition Corp V(FTCV)$
[得意] [得意] [得意] [得意]
银色蚂蚁
2021-04-15
钱少
都是缩减QE,这一次和八年前会有什么不同?
银色蚂蚁
2021-06-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
[得意] [得意] [得意] 等到了
银色蚂蚁
2021-03-11
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
今天还会上吗?
银色蚂蚁
2021-04-24
美国爸爸不在家
抱歉,原内容已删除
银色蚂蚁
2021-04-15
$RLX科技(RLX)$
加油
银色蚂蚁
2021-11-24
[得意]
银色蚂蚁
2021-06-08
$Fintech Acquisition Corp V(FTCV)$
[害羞] [害羞] [害羞]
银色蚂蚁
2021-05-19
48小时又回来
抱歉,原内容已删除
银色蚂蚁
2021-05-03
$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$
几时改名?
银色蚂蚁
2021-03-16
又来
游戏驿站直线跳水,触发熔断
银色蚂蚁
2021-03-10
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
上了 上了。 为什么昨天要卖[流泪]
银色蚂蚁
2021-12-28
[真香]
银色蚂蚁
2021-12-18
[比心] [666]
银色蚂蚁
2021-12-07
[得意]
银色蚂蚁
2021-12-01
Into the unknown [保佑] [保佑]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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13:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"都是缩减QE,这一次和八年前会有什么不同?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163247183","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。\n那","content":"<blockquote>\n “劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。</p>\n<p>那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久,他在公开市场委员会会议上表示,“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”,建议开始考虑减少购债。</p>\n<p><b>八年后的今天,失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%,就业市场健康状况也远好于当年(如黑人失业率降至9.6%),鲍威尔却觉得这还不够。</b></p>\n<p><b>上周的IMF春季会议线上研讨会上他指出,“复苏仍然不完整,不均衡”</b>,将维持QE规模,直至实现通胀和就业目标“取得实质性的进一步进展”再考虑缩减。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb9269b36146e907455c5636dc1bd7d\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>指数综合了反应就业市场健康状况的22个指标,显示当前健康状况好于2013年</p>\n<p>其中的态度转变表明,美联储如今把实现充分就业放在重中之重,并且对“充分就业”有了不同的理解。</p>\n<p><b>就业是重中之重</b></p>\n<p>在两个经济目标——稳定通胀率在平均2%水平和实现充分就业——何者为优先项上,美联储这次选择了后者,这是从2013年的经验中得来的方法论。</p>\n<p>2013年,美联储将通胀和失业率联系得十分紧密,他们认为失业率降到一定程度(4.5%)会触发物价水平急剧上升;则反过来,为了不让通胀失控,就应该在就业市场完全复苏前退出刺激。</p>\n<p>于是,当年失业率还在7%的时候,美联储就宣布减少购债,因为预计缩减QE后失业率还会继续下降,慢慢推升通胀回到2%目标位。</p>\n<p><b>但事实证明,通胀确实在升,却升得非常慢。失业率早已降到4.5%以下,但八年来,由于私营部门消费投资热情不足,通胀持续低于2%。</b></p>\n<p><b>路透分析师Howard Schneider评论,这可能让美联储认为,通胀总体上较弱,所以这次可以等待失业率下降到更低的水平,而不会有很大的通胀风险。</b></p>\n<p><b>根据美联储的预测,到年底,失业率将从目前的6%下降到4.5%,预计到今年夏天,每月将增加一百万就业人数。</b>美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万,远超预期,被认为是就业市场前景向好的一个证明。</p>\n<p>不过,许多分析师对这种做法持怀疑态度。美国3月CPI同比增长2.6%,创下2018年8月来最高水平,虽然部分是由于去年同期低基数效应,但供需缺口的扩大不容忽视。</p>\n<p>疫情造成美国下游消费品端大面积供应链断裂,目前尚未完全恢复,近期芯片短缺就是最明显的例子。需求端则确实在逐步抬头,汽油、食品、住房需求均明显改善,线下服务需求也处于复苏轨道。</p>\n<p>Columbia Threadneedle高级利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy表示:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 一场大规模的实验正在进行……我们正在让经济变得越来越热。疫情对供应端形成的约束并未完全解除,经济正在进行重新配置,我们不知道这将如何影响价格形成。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>何时“取得实质性进展”?</b></p>\n<p>那么对于就业市场,怎样才叫做复苏实现“完整”、“均衡”?</p>\n<p>鲍威尔IMF春季会议上给了个大致的定量说法:如果能像3月那样增加就业,“连续几个月”增加100万就业人口,“那样就真正开始显示,向着我们的目标有了进展”。</p>\n<p><b>但另外,美联储这次要在就业市场“健康”程度上好好画上一笔。</b></p>\n<p>3月一次美联储会议上,鲍威尔对美国社会经济不平等的状态表示担忧:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 经济下滑并没有使得所有美国人受到相同的打击,本就最脆弱的那些人受到的打击最大。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前,虽然美国就业市场在整体失业率、黑人失业率、女性失业率等多项指标上,表现都优于2013年退出QE时期,<b>但在劳动参与率、长期失业人口占失业人口比重等方面仍不及当年。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc5f0395bc553ddbb5eb9870f1c7080\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Indeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管Nick Bunker说表示,今天的美联储“对充分就业的构成有不同的看法”,“<b>劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。</b>”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n都是缩减QE,这一次和八年前会有什么不同?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-04-14 13:54 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。\n那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久,他在公开市场委员会会议上表示,“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”,建议开始考虑减少购债。\n八年后的今天,失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%,就业市场健康状况也远好于当年(如黑人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acda3093f2aff10e50f822317125a553","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163247183","content_text":"“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康,但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月,也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前,美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%,黑人失业率则还高达13%。\n那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久,他在公开市场委员会会议上表示,“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”,建议开始考虑减少购债。\n八年后的今天,失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%,就业市场健康状况也远好于当年(如黑人失业率降至9.6%),鲍威尔却觉得这还不够。\n上周的IMF春季会议线上研讨会上他指出,“复苏仍然不完整,不均衡”,将维持QE规模,直至实现通胀和就业目标“取得实质性的进一步进展”再考虑缩减。\n\n指数综合了反应就业市场健康状况的22个指标,显示当前健康状况好于2013年\n其中的态度转变表明,美联储如今把实现充分就业放在重中之重,并且对“充分就业”有了不同的理解。\n就业是重中之重\n在两个经济目标——稳定通胀率在平均2%水平和实现充分就业——何者为优先项上,美联储这次选择了后者,这是从2013年的经验中得来的方法论。\n2013年,美联储将通胀和失业率联系得十分紧密,他们认为失业率降到一定程度(4.5%)会触发物价水平急剧上升;则反过来,为了不让通胀失控,就应该在就业市场完全复苏前退出刺激。\n于是,当年失业率还在7%的时候,美联储就宣布减少购债,因为预计缩减QE后失业率还会继续下降,慢慢推升通胀回到2%目标位。\n但事实证明,通胀确实在升,却升得非常慢。失业率早已降到4.5%以下,但八年来,由于私营部门消费投资热情不足,通胀持续低于2%。\n路透分析师Howard Schneider评论,这可能让美联储认为,通胀总体上较弱,所以这次可以等待失业率下降到更低的水平,而不会有很大的通胀风险。\n根据美联储的预测,到年底,失业率将从目前的6%下降到4.5%,预计到今年夏天,每月将增加一百万就业人数。美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万,远超预期,被认为是就业市场前景向好的一个证明。\n不过,许多分析师对这种做法持怀疑态度。美国3月CPI同比增长2.6%,创下2018年8月来最高水平,虽然部分是由于去年同期低基数效应,但供需缺口的扩大不容忽视。\n疫情造成美国下游消费品端大面积供应链断裂,目前尚未完全恢复,近期芯片短缺就是最明显的例子。需求端则确实在逐步抬头,汽油、食品、住房需求均明显改善,线下服务需求也处于复苏轨道。\nColumbia Threadneedle高级利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy表示:\n\n 一场大规模的实验正在进行……我们正在让经济变得越来越热。疫情对供应端形成的约束并未完全解除,经济正在进行重新配置,我们不知道这将如何影响价格形成。\n\n何时“取得实质性进展”?\n那么对于就业市场,怎样才叫做复苏实现“完整”、“均衡”?\n鲍威尔IMF春季会议上给了个大致的定量说法:如果能像3月那样增加就业,“连续几个月”增加100万就业人口,“那样就真正开始显示,向着我们的目标有了进展”。\n但另外,美联储这次要在就业市场“健康”程度上好好画上一笔。\n3月一次美联储会议上,鲍威尔对美国社会经济不平等的状态表示担忧:\n\n 经济下滑并没有使得所有美国人受到相同的打击,本就最脆弱的那些人受到的打击最大。”\n\n目前,虽然美国就业市场在整体失业率、黑人失业率、女性失业率等多项指标上,表现都优于2013年退出QE时期,但在劳动参与率、长期失业人口占失业人口比重等方面仍不及当年。\n\nIndeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管Nick 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>直线跳水,触发熔断,熔断前跌近15%,报226.19美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cee5aa3e0403d24ce37b065848310c1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198239491","content_text":"3月15日,游戏驿站直线跳水,触发熔断,熔断前跌近15%,报226.19美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323154973,"gmtCreate":1615315732092,"gmtModify":1703487289527,"author":{"id":"3577365538114922","authorId":"3577365538114922","name":"银色蚂蚁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e8524107a986c74239171a15e29e41","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>上了 上了。 为什么昨天要卖[流泪] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>上了 上了。 为什么昨天要卖[流泪] 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