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银色蚂蚁

银色蚂蚁

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0勋章

2021-12-28

[真香]

2021-12-18

[比心] [666]

2021-12-16

[得意]

2021-12-10

[傲娇]

2021-12-07

[得意]

2021-12-01

Into the unknown [保佑] [保佑]

2021-11-24

[得意]

2021-11-14

[惊讶]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-13

0.0122 what next

2021-11-12

[得意]

美国“重振”半导体产业的棋局

2021-11-12

0.137. 等等

2021-11-10

[得意]

2021-11-10

[得意]

2021-11-09

[害羞]

2021-11-09

[得意]

2021-11-08

[得意]

2021-11-08

$任天堂(NTDOY)$[得意] [得意]

2021-11-07

[呆住]

2021-11-07

$Fintech Acquisition Corp V(FTCV)$[真香]

2021-11-06

[美金] [美金] [美金]

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

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what next","listText":"0.0122 what next","text":"0.0122 what next","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98edcedbea2980f4fd29fe22e8233198","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879477878","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879073915,"gmtCreate":1636673856155,"gmtModify":1636673859658,"author":{"id":"3577365538114922","authorId":"3577365538114922","name":"银色蚂蚁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e8524107a986c74239171a15e29e41","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879073915","repostId":"2182244068","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2182244068","pubTimestamp":1636642922,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2182244068?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-11 23:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美国“重振”半导体产业的棋局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2182244068","media":"虎嗅","summary":"但这次未必能复现上次成功经验","content":"<p>本文来自微信公众号：半导体产业纵横（ID：ICViews），作者：蒋思莹，头图来自：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></p>\n<p>今年9月，美国商务部以应对全球芯片危机为名，要求包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>在内的20多家芯片相关企业在11月8号之前提供商业机密数据。截止至目前，根据相关媒体报道显示，包括台积电在内的中国台湾厂商，以及包括三星、SK海力士在内的韩国厂商均已提交资料，但他们表示，在提交的材料中不会披露客户的关键资料。</p>\n<p>从美国重提他们在半导体行业的地位，到美国鼓励半导体厂商在美国本土建厂，再到美国要求晶圆代工厂“自愿”提交数据，美国围绕着半导体产业的发展进行了很多布局。</p>\n<p>美国“重夺”半导体市场地位的经验</p>\n<p>从肖克利半导体实验室走出来的“八叛逆”，让半导体产业逐渐走向了商业化。他们围绕着半导体产业的成功创业经历，吸引着越来越多的半导体初创企业聚集到硅谷，硅谷也成为了半导体产业最初腾飞的地方。</p>\n<p>上世纪80年代中期前，美国一直稳坐世界半导体老大的位置，并占据世界半导体市场50%以上的份额。后来，日本以DRAM存储产品为突破点，在当时日本汽车产业和全球大型计算机市场的东风下得以迅速崛起——根据相关报道显示，20世纪70年代美国曾经占据全球半导体市场70%的份额，但后来日本通过官产学合作取得技术上的突破，在微电子、半导体、存储器等领域超越了美国，一度使美国在世界半导体市场所占份额降低到37%。</p>\n<p>为了重夺半导体市场，美国政府不仅以反倾销名义令日本政府调整产业政策。在技术赶超层面上，美国政府还在1987年联合了14家企业<b>建立了半导体制造技术联盟</b><b>（即Sematech）</b><b>主攻IC制造工艺及其设备，以对抗日本在存储方面的先进技术。</b>其使命有二：其一，提高半导体技术的研究数量；其二，为联盟内的成员企业提供研发资源，使其能够分享成果、减少重复研究造成的浪费。</p>\n<p>根据维基百科显示，1990年代中期以来，通过该联盟已经获得成效。1996年联盟董事会决定中止财政补贴后，并开始将起工作重点从美国半导体产业转移到更大的国际半导体产业。</p>\n<p>通过这些方式的布局，美国半导体企业重新回到世界第一的地位。这一点从当时Gartner所统计的全球前十大半导体企业的排名中便可看到这种变化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92243e861e90f92b09529eea5dd56beb\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>1990年Gartner所统计的全球前十大半导体企业。图片来源：维基百科</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f035d6648bedb7aa5e31efb3da43d70\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>1996年Gartner所统计的全球前十大半导体企业。图片来源：维基百科</p>\n<p>从电子复兴计划到CHIPS法案</p>\n<p>在与日本争夺半导体市场的竞赛中，美国恢复了其在全球市场的领导地位。随后，随着电子产品在全球范围内的发展，半导体产业也再次发生了迁移，韩国和中国台湾在这个期间成长了起来，但他们的在这个阶段的成长并没有影响到美国在全球半导体市场的地位。</p>\n<p>直到摩尔定律开始出现瓶颈，新技术开始在半导体产业当中迸发，这不仅为半导体产业的发展带来了新的生机，也意味着有些半导体企业会乘势而起。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4127fd96f92d1b23d019e33a3fa8b7fa\" tg-width=\"534\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>2020年，美国半导体市场份额。图片来源：SIA</p>\n<p>因此在这种情况下，美国开始重新重视半导体技术方面的提升。2017年，美国国防高级研究计划局（DARPA）提出了<b>“电子复兴计划”</b>，并在随后五年内投资约15亿美元，<b>计划旨在解决摩尔定律延续面临的障碍以及电子技术快速发展50年来面临的挑战。</b>“电子复兴计划”的第一阶段关注新型电路材料、新体系架构和软硬件设计创新，下一阶段则侧重于国防企业的技术需求和能力与电子行业的商业和制造现实的结合。意在保持美国在半导体技术的领先地位、并为美国下一波半导体发展奠定基础。</p>\n<p>尤其是伴随着5G、人工智能等新技术的发展，美国开始有针对性地进行了布局，他们所煽动的蝴蝶翅膀，也影响了接下来全球半导体产业链的变革。特别是在产能短缺的问题持续影响着半导体产业发展的情况下，使得美国开始重提半导体供应链的重要性。</p>\n<p>2020年6月，美国国会议员正提出《CHIPS Act》，计划以5年250亿美元的研究与建设资金并税收抵免优惠，以加强美国半导体产业在国内建立完整生产工厂。法案包括一项计划，即要求州和商务部制定一项联邦计划，该计划将与州政府对晶圆制造代工厂的公司提供的激励措施，对半导体设备给予40％的可退还所得税扣抵，以吸引产生产业群聚效果，在美国建立先进且完整的半导体供应链体系。7月，美国推出了一项旨在振兴美国本土芯片产业的法案——《美国晶圆代工业法案》（American Foundries Act of 2020，AFA）。</p>\n<p>今年2月，美国发起了100 天半导体供应链审查。作为审查的一部分，美国商务部对半导体供应链各个环节（从设计和制造到组装、测试和封装，以及材料和半导体设备）的风险进行了分析，并为解决这些风险，包括长期和短期。在6月公布的审查结果显示，在过去的20 年中，<b>美国已从占全球半导体产量的37%下降到了12%。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c538e652c36300f7088f879619d142c5\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>美国半导体制造份额。图片来源：SIA</p>\n<p>在这样的情况下，美国或许已经将半导体制造视为是本轮全球半导体竞赛中的重点。</p>\n<p>美国再次上演“重振”半导体行业地位？</p>\n<p>从半导体企业的类型上看，以IDM模式运营的半导体公司和晶圆代工厂均拥有生产芯片的能力。从目前市场情况上看，无论是成熟工艺扩产还是先进工艺布局，都受到了业界的关注。其中，根据Yole在2020年发布的一则报告中，显示出了在先进工艺向前发展的过程中，致力于先进工艺的厂商越来越少（这也是晶圆代工领域的崛起为半导体产业带来的变化之一）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81b61bc78038eb7e05dc3ee3e3153d4d\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>130mm~5/3nm晶圆制造厂商变化。图片来源：Yole</p>\n<p>高端芯片对先进工艺的需求较大，尤其是在5G的较量当中，先进工艺对其发展起到了重要的作用。因此，美国在芯片制造方面<b>不仅在呼吁美国半导体企业在本土建立芯片制造工厂，还在鼓励台积电、三星等致力于先进工艺的半导体企业在美建厂。</b>根据外媒在今年5月的报道显示，按照美国政府的计划，未来将会有6~7家半导体工厂在美国本土建设，这其中包括5nm、3nm产线。</p>\n<p>而后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、台积电、三星、格芯等公司在美建厂的计划均浮出水面。另一方面，在美国政府的呼吁之下，<b>我们也看到美国各州也开启了半导体的“争夺战”。</b></p>\n<p>美国的亚利桑那州是英特尔最大的生产基地，基于他们在1980年便在此处进行芯片制造，使得该地区的半导体产业链较为完整，而这也是吸引半导体厂商来此建厂的原因之一。</p>\n<p>除了亚利桑那州以外，今年10月，德克萨斯州州长Greg Abbott宣布成立国家半导体中心德克萨斯工作组。这是为了协调向美国商务部提出的将德州建设为国家半导体技术中心（NSTC）和国家先进封装制造工程（NAPMP）未来基地的提案。据外媒报道显示，德克萨斯州有200多家半导体制造企业，自2015年以来，该州的半导体制造企业增长了近35%。而这也使得德州成为了芯片制造的热选建厂地址之一。</p>\n<p>从各家的选址上看，台积电选择了在美国亚利桑那州菲尼克斯建设一座300mm晶圆厂；今年3月，英特尔首席执行官帕特·盖尔辛格在演讲中提到，英特尔将投资200亿美元在亚利桑那州新建两座晶圆厂；今年7月，格芯宣布将在其总部纽约州马耳他市附近建设第二座工厂，并将投资10亿美元提高产能；三星在美国的芯片制造工厂虽然还未正式敲定，但地点大概率会在德州、亚利桑那州和纽约州之一。</p>\n<p>但从最近的一些报道上看，台积电、三星、英特尔都在争取美国政府在芯片制造上的补贴，同样美国各州也在极力争取美国政府的芯片制造政策向其倾斜。但从美国的政策补贴情况上看，他们所能提供的依旧是杯水车薪。</p>\n<p>正如张忠谋在前不久的演讲中所说的，美国过去半导体制造市场占有率曾达42%，目前降至17%，美国政府积极推动半导体在美国制造，希望让半导体制造市场占有率回升。<b>但目前美国供应链不完整，且生产成本高，这可能也会导致美国半导体在本地制造的计划不会成功。</b></p>\n<p>另一方面，对于先进工艺本身而言，<b>工艺越前发展所要的研发投入也就越高</b>——三星准备投入1160亿美元在3nm制程的研发和生产。从这一点上看，先进工艺的玩家越少，各大厂商肯投入的资本也越来越高，跑在前面的厂商也得到的回报也会越大。尤其是在全球都在重视先进工艺的发展之时，当地的相关政策也会进行一定的帮助（例如韩国的K半导体战略计划就是针对韩国在未来芯片制造领域的地位而制定的计划）。而这也意味着，美国要想再次“重振”其芯片制造在半导体地位之旅不会很容易。</p>\n<p>本文来自微信公众号：半导体产业纵横（ID：ICViews），作者：蒋思莹</p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国“重振”半导体产业的棋局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-11 23:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/471632.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自微信公众号：半导体产业纵横（ID：ICViews），作者：蒋思莹，头图来自：视觉中国\n今年9月，美国商务部以应对全球芯片危机为名，要求包括台积电、三星在内的20多家芯片相关企业在11月8号之前提供商业机密数据。截止至目前，根据相关媒体报道显示，包括台积电在内的中国台湾厂商，以及包括三星、SK海力士在内的韩国厂商均已提交资料，但他们表示，在提交的材料中不会披露客户的关键资料。\n从美国重提他们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/471632.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/471632.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2182244068","content_text":"本文来自微信公众号：半导体产业纵横（ID：ICViews），作者：蒋思莹，头图来自：视觉中国\n今年9月，美国商务部以应对全球芯片危机为名，要求包括台积电、三星在内的20多家芯片相关企业在11月8号之前提供商业机密数据。截止至目前，根据相关媒体报道显示，包括台积电在内的中国台湾厂商，以及包括三星、SK海力士在内的韩国厂商均已提交资料，但他们表示，在提交的材料中不会披露客户的关键资料。\n从美国重提他们在半导体行业的地位，到美国鼓励半导体厂商在美国本土建厂，再到美国要求晶圆代工厂“自愿”提交数据，美国围绕着半导体产业的发展进行了很多布局。\n美国“重夺”半导体市场地位的经验\n从肖克利半导体实验室走出来的“八叛逆”，让半导体产业逐渐走向了商业化。他们围绕着半导体产业的成功创业经历，吸引着越来越多的半导体初创企业聚集到硅谷，硅谷也成为了半导体产业最初腾飞的地方。\n上世纪80年代中期前，美国一直稳坐世界半导体老大的位置，并占据世界半导体市场50%以上的份额。后来，日本以DRAM存储产品为突破点，在当时日本汽车产业和全球大型计算机市场的东风下得以迅速崛起——根据相关报道显示，20世纪70年代美国曾经占据全球半导体市场70%的份额，但后来日本通过官产学合作取得技术上的突破，在微电子、半导体、存储器等领域超越了美国，一度使美国在世界半导体市场所占份额降低到37%。\n为了重夺半导体市场，美国政府不仅以反倾销名义令日本政府调整产业政策。在技术赶超层面上，美国政府还在1987年联合了14家企业建立了半导体制造技术联盟（即Sematech）主攻IC制造工艺及其设备，以对抗日本在存储方面的先进技术。其使命有二：其一，提高半导体技术的研究数量；其二，为联盟内的成员企业提供研发资源，使其能够分享成果、减少重复研究造成的浪费。\n根据维基百科显示，1990年代中期以来，通过该联盟已经获得成效。1996年联盟董事会决定中止财政补贴后，并开始将起工作重点从美国半导体产业转移到更大的国际半导体产业。\n通过这些方式的布局，美国半导体企业重新回到世界第一的地位。这一点从当时Gartner所统计的全球前十大半导体企业的排名中便可看到这种变化。\n\n1990年Gartner所统计的全球前十大半导体企业。图片来源：维基百科\n\n1996年Gartner所统计的全球前十大半导体企业。图片来源：维基百科\n从电子复兴计划到CHIPS法案\n在与日本争夺半导体市场的竞赛中，美国恢复了其在全球市场的领导地位。随后，随着电子产品在全球范围内的发展，半导体产业也再次发生了迁移，韩国和中国台湾在这个期间成长了起来，但他们的在这个阶段的成长并没有影响到美国在全球半导体市场的地位。\n直到摩尔定律开始出现瓶颈，新技术开始在半导体产业当中迸发，这不仅为半导体产业的发展带来了新的生机，也意味着有些半导体企业会乘势而起。\n\n2020年，美国半导体市场份额。图片来源：SIA\n因此在这种情况下，美国开始重新重视半导体技术方面的提升。2017年，美国国防高级研究计划局（DARPA）提出了“电子复兴计划”，并在随后五年内投资约15亿美元，计划旨在解决摩尔定律延续面临的障碍以及电子技术快速发展50年来面临的挑战。“电子复兴计划”的第一阶段关注新型电路材料、新体系架构和软硬件设计创新，下一阶段则侧重于国防企业的技术需求和能力与电子行业的商业和制造现实的结合。意在保持美国在半导体技术的领先地位、并为美国下一波半导体发展奠定基础。\n尤其是伴随着5G、人工智能等新技术的发展，美国开始有针对性地进行了布局，他们所煽动的蝴蝶翅膀，也影响了接下来全球半导体产业链的变革。特别是在产能短缺的问题持续影响着半导体产业发展的情况下，使得美国开始重提半导体供应链的重要性。\n2020年6月，美国国会议员正提出《CHIPS Act》，计划以5年250亿美元的研究与建设资金并税收抵免优惠，以加强美国半导体产业在国内建立完整生产工厂。法案包括一项计划，即要求州和商务部制定一项联邦计划，该计划将与州政府对晶圆制造代工厂的公司提供的激励措施，对半导体设备给予40％的可退还所得税扣抵，以吸引产生产业群聚效果，在美国建立先进且完整的半导体供应链体系。7月，美国推出了一项旨在振兴美国本土芯片产业的法案——《美国晶圆代工业法案》（American Foundries Act of 2020，AFA）。\n今年2月，美国发起了100 天半导体供应链审查。作为审查的一部分，美国商务部对半导体供应链各个环节（从设计和制造到组装、测试和封装，以及材料和半导体设备）的风险进行了分析，并为解决这些风险，包括长期和短期。在6月公布的审查结果显示，在过去的20 年中，美国已从占全球半导体产量的37%下降到了12%。\n\n美国半导体制造份额。图片来源：SIA\n在这样的情况下，美国或许已经将半导体制造视为是本轮全球半导体竞赛中的重点。\n美国再次上演“重振”半导体行业地位？\n从半导体企业的类型上看，以IDM模式运营的半导体公司和晶圆代工厂均拥有生产芯片的能力。从目前市场情况上看，无论是成熟工艺扩产还是先进工艺布局，都受到了业界的关注。其中，根据Yole在2020年发布的一则报告中，显示出了在先进工艺向前发展的过程中，致力于先进工艺的厂商越来越少（这也是晶圆代工领域的崛起为半导体产业带来的变化之一）。\n\n130mm~5/3nm晶圆制造厂商变化。图片来源：Yole\n高端芯片对先进工艺的需求较大，尤其是在5G的较量当中，先进工艺对其发展起到了重要的作用。因此，美国在芯片制造方面不仅在呼吁美国半导体企业在本土建立芯片制造工厂，还在鼓励台积电、三星等致力于先进工艺的半导体企业在美建厂。根据外媒在今年5月的报道显示，按照美国政府的计划，未来将会有6~7家半导体工厂在美国本土建设，这其中包括5nm、3nm产线。\n而后，英特尔、台积电、三星、格芯等公司在美建厂的计划均浮出水面。另一方面，在美国政府的呼吁之下，我们也看到美国各州也开启了半导体的“争夺战”。\n美国的亚利桑那州是英特尔最大的生产基地，基于他们在1980年便在此处进行芯片制造，使得该地区的半导体产业链较为完整，而这也是吸引半导体厂商来此建厂的原因之一。\n除了亚利桑那州以外，今年10月，德克萨斯州州长Greg Abbott宣布成立国家半导体中心德克萨斯工作组。这是为了协调向美国商务部提出的将德州建设为国家半导体技术中心（NSTC）和国家先进封装制造工程（NAPMP）未来基地的提案。据外媒报道显示，德克萨斯州有200多家半导体制造企业，自2015年以来，该州的半导体制造企业增长了近35%。而这也使得德州成为了芯片制造的热选建厂地址之一。\n从各家的选址上看，台积电选择了在美国亚利桑那州菲尼克斯建设一座300mm晶圆厂；今年3月，英特尔首席执行官帕特·盖尔辛格在演讲中提到，英特尔将投资200亿美元在亚利桑那州新建两座晶圆厂；今年7月，格芯宣布将在其总部纽约州马耳他市附近建设第二座工厂，并将投资10亿美元提高产能；三星在美国的芯片制造工厂虽然还未正式敲定，但地点大概率会在德州、亚利桑那州和纽约州之一。\n但从最近的一些报道上看，台积电、三星、英特尔都在争取美国政府在芯片制造上的补贴，同样美国各州也在极力争取美国政府的芯片制造政策向其倾斜。但从美国的政策补贴情况上看，他们所能提供的依旧是杯水车薪。\n正如张忠谋在前不久的演讲中所说的，美国过去半导体制造市场占有率曾达42%，目前降至17%，美国政府积极推动半导体在美国制造，希望让半导体制造市场占有率回升。但目前美国供应链不完整，且生产成本高，这可能也会导致美国半导体在本地制造的计划不会成功。\n另一方面，对于先进工艺本身而言，工艺越前发展所要的研发投入也就越高——三星准备投入1160亿美元在3nm制程的研发和生产。从这一点上看，先进工艺的玩家越少，各大厂商肯投入的资本也越来越高，跑在前面的厂商也得到的回报也会越大。尤其是在全球都在重视先进工艺的发展之时，当地的相关政策也会进行一定的帮助（例如韩国的K半导体战略计划就是针对韩国在未来芯片制造领域的地位而制定的计划）。而这也意味着，美国要想再次“重振”其芯片制造在半导体地位之旅不会很容易。\n本文来自微信公众号：半导体产业纵横（ID：ICViews），作者：蒋思莹","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879045568,"gmtCreate":1636673589092,"gmtModify":1636673606410,"author":{"id":"3577365538114922","authorId":"3577365538114922","name":"银色蚂蚁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e8524107a986c74239171a15e29e41","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"0.137. 等等","listText":"0.137. 等等","text":"0.137. 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13:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"都是缩减QE，这一次和八年前会有什么不同？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163247183","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月，也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前，美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%，黑人失业率则还高达13％。\n那","content":"<blockquote>\n “劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>2013年4月，也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前，美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%，黑人失业率则还高达13％。</p>\n<p>那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久，他在公开市场委员会会议上表示，“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”，建议开始考虑减少购债。</p>\n<p><b>八年后的今天，失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%，就业市场健康状况也远好于当年（如黑人失业率降至9.6%），鲍威尔却觉得这还不够。</b></p>\n<p><b>上周的IMF春季会议线上研讨会上他指出，“复苏仍然不完整，不均衡”</b>，将维持QE规模，直至实现通胀和就业目标“取得实质性的进一步进展”再考虑缩减。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb9269b36146e907455c5636dc1bd7d\" tg-width=\"1019\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>指数综合了反应就业市场健康状况的22个指标，显示当前健康状况好于2013年</p>\n<p>其中的态度转变表明，美联储如今把实现充分就业放在重中之重，并且对“充分就业”有了不同的理解。</p>\n<p><b>就业是重中之重</b></p>\n<p>在两个经济目标——稳定通胀率在平均2%水平和实现充分就业——何者为优先项上，美联储这次选择了后者，这是从2013年的经验中得来的方法论。</p>\n<p>2013年，美联储将通胀和失业率联系得十分紧密，他们认为失业率降到一定程度（4.5%）会触发物价水平急剧上升；则反过来，为了不让通胀失控，就应该在就业市场完全复苏前退出刺激。</p>\n<p>于是，当年失业率还在7%的时候，美联储就宣布减少购债，因为预计缩减QE后失业率还会继续下降，慢慢推升通胀回到2%目标位。</p>\n<p><b>但事实证明，通胀确实在升，却升得非常慢。失业率早已降到4.5%以下，但八年来，由于私营部门消费投资热情不足，通胀持续低于2%。</b></p>\n<p><b>路透分析师Howard Schneider评论，这可能让美联储认为，通胀总体上较弱，所以这次可以等待失业率下降到更低的水平，而不会有很大的通胀风险。</b></p>\n<p><b>根据美联储的预测，到年底，失业率将从目前的6％下降到4.5％，预计到今年夏天，每月将增加一百万就业人数。</b>美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万，远超预期，被认为是就业市场前景向好的一个证明。</p>\n<p>不过，许多分析师对这种做法持怀疑态度。美国3月CPI同比增长2.6%，创下2018年8月来最高水平，虽然部分是由于去年同期低基数效应，但供需缺口的扩大不容忽视。</p>\n<p>疫情造成美国下游消费品端大面积供应链断裂，目前尚未完全恢复，近期芯片短缺就是最明显的例子。需求端则确实在逐步抬头，汽油、食品、住房需求均明显改善，线下服务需求也处于复苏轨道。</p>\n<p>Columbia Threadneedle高级利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 一场大规模的实验正在进行……我们正在让经济变得越来越热。疫情对供应端形成的约束并未完全解除，经济正在进行重新配置，我们不知道这将如何影响价格形成。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>何时“取得实质性进展”？</b></p>\n<p>那么对于就业市场，怎样才叫做复苏实现“完整”、“均衡”？</p>\n<p>鲍威尔IMF春季会议上给了个大致的定量说法：如果能像3月那样增加就业，“连续几个月”增加100万就业人口，“那样就真正开始显示，向着我们的目标有了进展”。</p>\n<p><b>但另外，美联储这次要在就业市场“健康”程度上好好画上一笔。</b></p>\n<p>3月一次美联储会议上，鲍威尔对美国社会经济不平等的状态表示担忧：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 经济下滑并没有使得所有美国人受到相同的打击，本就最脆弱的那些人受到的打击最大。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前，虽然美国就业市场在整体失业率、黑人失业率、女性失业率等多项指标上，表现都优于2013年退出QE时期，<b>但在劳动参与率、长期失业人口占失业人口比重等方面仍不及当年。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc5f0395bc553ddbb5eb9870f1c7080\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Indeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管Nick Bunker说表示，今天的美联储“对充分就业的构成有不同的看法”，“<b>劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。</b>”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>都是缩减QE，这一次和八年前会有什么不同？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n都是缩减QE，这一次和八年前会有什么不同？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-04-14 13:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月，也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前，美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%，黑人失业率则还高达13％。\n那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久，他在公开市场委员会会议上表示，“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”，建议开始考虑减少购债。\n八年后的今天，失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%，就业市场健康状况也远好于当年（如黑人...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acda3093f2aff10e50f822317125a553","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163247183","content_text":"“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”\n\n2013年4月，也就是QE4宣布退出的半年前，美国失业率刚刚从金融危机峰值下降到7.5%，黑人失业率则还高达13％。\n那时鲍威尔刚当上美联储理事不久，他在公开市场委员会会议上表示，“实现经济目标已取得实质性进展”，建议开始考虑减少购债。\n八年后的今天，失业率已经从疫情峰值下降到6%，就业市场健康状况也远好于当年（如黑人失业率降至9.6%），鲍威尔却觉得这还不够。\n上周的IMF春季会议线上研讨会上他指出，“复苏仍然不完整，不均衡”，将维持QE规模，直至实现通胀和就业目标“取得实质性的进一步进展”再考虑缩减。\n\n指数综合了反应就业市场健康状况的22个指标，显示当前健康状况好于2013年\n其中的态度转变表明，美联储如今把实现充分就业放在重中之重，并且对“充分就业”有了不同的理解。\n就业是重中之重\n在两个经济目标——稳定通胀率在平均2%水平和实现充分就业——何者为优先项上，美联储这次选择了后者，这是从2013年的经验中得来的方法论。\n2013年，美联储将通胀和失业率联系得十分紧密，他们认为失业率降到一定程度（4.5%）会触发物价水平急剧上升；则反过来，为了不让通胀失控，就应该在就业市场完全复苏前退出刺激。\n于是，当年失业率还在7%的时候，美联储就宣布减少购债，因为预计缩减QE后失业率还会继续下降，慢慢推升通胀回到2%目标位。\n但事实证明，通胀确实在升，却升得非常慢。失业率早已降到4.5%以下，但八年来，由于私营部门消费投资热情不足，通胀持续低于2%。\n路透分析师Howard Schneider评论，这可能让美联储认为，通胀总体上较弱，所以这次可以等待失业率下降到更低的水平，而不会有很大的通胀风险。\n根据美联储的预测，到年底，失业率将从目前的6％下降到4.5％，预计到今年夏天，每月将增加一百万就业人数。美国3月非农就业人口增加91.6万，远超预期，被认为是就业市场前景向好的一个证明。\n不过，许多分析师对这种做法持怀疑态度。美国3月CPI同比增长2.6%，创下2018年8月来最高水平，虽然部分是由于去年同期低基数效应，但供需缺口的扩大不容忽视。\n疫情造成美国下游消费品端大面积供应链断裂，目前尚未完全恢复，近期芯片短缺就是最明显的例子。需求端则确实在逐步抬头，汽油、食品、住房需求均明显改善，线下服务需求也处于复苏轨道。\nColumbia Threadneedle高级利率分析师Edward Al-Hussainy表示：\n\n 一场大规模的实验正在进行……我们正在让经济变得越来越热。疫情对供应端形成的约束并未完全解除，经济正在进行重新配置，我们不知道这将如何影响价格形成。\n\n何时“取得实质性进展”？\n那么对于就业市场，怎样才叫做复苏实现“完整”、“均衡”？\n鲍威尔IMF春季会议上给了个大致的定量说法：如果能像3月那样增加就业，“连续几个月”增加100万就业人口，“那样就真正开始显示，向着我们的目标有了进展”。\n但另外，美联储这次要在就业市场“健康”程度上好好画上一笔。\n3月一次美联储会议上，鲍威尔对美国社会经济不平等的状态表示担忧：\n\n 经济下滑并没有使得所有美国人受到相同的打击，本就最脆弱的那些人受到的打击最大。”\n\n目前，虽然美国就业市场在整体失业率、黑人失业率、女性失业率等多项指标上，表现都优于2013年退出QE时期，但在劳动参与率、长期失业人口占失业人口比重等方面仍不及当年。\n\nIndeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管Nick Bunker说表示，今天的美联储“对充分就业的构成有不同的看法”，“劳动力市场大致上与2013年底一样健康，但美联储认为这离充分就业还很远。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":126359032,"gmtCreate":1624545336426,"gmtModify":1634004573646,"author":{"id":"3577365538114922","authorId":"3577365538114922","name":"银色蚂蚁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e8524107a986c74239171a15e29e41","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;等到了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;等到了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$[得意] [得意] [得意] 等到了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46d3e513abc9660e448edeb4a76f71f5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126359032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321333334,"gmtCreate":1615392808628,"gmtModify":1703488484009,"author":{"id":"3577365538114922","authorId":"3577365538114922","name":"银色蚂蚁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e8524107a986c74239171a15e29e41","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>今天还会上吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>今天还会上吗?","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$今天还会上吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321333334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":372602401,"gmtCreate":1619195518903,"gmtModify":1634287819949,"author":{"id":"3577365538114922","authorId":"3577365538114922","name":"银色蚂蚁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e8524107a986c74239171a15e29e41","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国爸爸不在家","listText":"美国爸爸不在家","text":"美国爸爸不在家","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372602401","repostId":"2129522843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2129522843","pubTimestamp":1619417874,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2129522843?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-26 14:17","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"抖音奇袭TME？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2129522843","media":" 字母榜","summary":"无边界的字节跳动，这一次将手伸向了TME的腹地。据Tech星球报道，字节内部已经成立音乐事业部，四个业务组并进赛马。音乐市场上，TME和网易云音乐二人转的格局恐被打破，抖音或将对音乐市场中生产、流通、","content":"<p>无边界的字节跳动，这一次将手伸向了TME的腹地。</p><p>据Tech星球报道，字节内部已经成立音乐事业部，四个业务组并进赛马。音乐市场上，TME和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>云音乐二人转的格局恐被打破，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>或将对音乐市场中生产、流通、消费三个环节进行重新整合。</p><p>在内容生产端，目前看来字节并无版权优势，但购买版权或许并不是张一鸣的战略重点。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>报道，2020年初在对抖音的未来规划路径的讨论中，张一鸣便明确反对了做版权内容、IP采买的发展方向。</p><p>对生下来就是UGC+算法推荐模式的字节跳动来说，似乎没有大手笔购买版权的基因。即便是在严重依赖版权的中长视频领域，除了《囧妈》的独家首发外，仍不见字节在影视行业，有加入爱优腾版权争夺战的动作。</p><p>争夺创作者才是字节的战略重点。在悟空问答、西瓜视频等业务线上都是如此。</p><p>由此可见，激发独立音乐人在抖音上进行音乐创作，或是字节在音乐领域上的工作重点。早在去年，“抖音音乐人亿元补贴计划”便正式向全体音乐人开放，意图通过流量扶持和现金激励的方式，对抖音内部的音乐人进行挖掘。</p><p>此外，短视频在音乐流通环节的重要性早已被成功论证。对于传统音乐播放软件来说，短视频平台在用户活跃度和使用时长上都是一种降维打击。去年大火的《芒种》《野狼disco》等音乐作品，便都是从短视频平台实现破圈。</p><p>在消费端，抖音也不缺少在线音乐的目标用户。毕竟，抖音诞生之初的定位就是音乐短视频社区。另据Fastdata极数发布的报告显示，在线音乐用户最大的流向就是短视频平台。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91bcea80ae903dfe645554817d65d9d5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">海外市场的成功试水，更是给了字节进军国内音乐市场的决心。</p><p>多家报道显示，字节跳动旗下音乐流媒体应用Resso，去年在印度和印尼正式上线后均取得了不错的反馈。</p><p>据KrASIA报道，该产品还被评为2020年Google Play的最佳Android 应用之一。另据36kr消息，截止今年9月， Resso在App Store和Google Play两个平台上已获得1520万次下载。</p><p>总是被“想小了”的抖音，此番加码国内音乐业务似乎就显得顺理成章。</p><p>《诱导消费者重复购买专辑，揭开音乐App的‘坏心思’》，新华社近日的一则新闻将在线音乐一度推上舆论的风口浪尖。</p><p>被质疑诱导粉丝非理性消费的打榜背后，凸显的是在线音乐的盈利难题。</p><p>虽然QQ音乐的月活已超8亿，但是却无法摆脱播放器的工具属性和音乐内容的单一性。</p><p>在广告变现的路上，既无法形成清晰的用户画像，也无法多场景实现广告的曝光和精准推送。而仅仅是付费用户的会员费用，也无法覆盖购买版权的高额成本。</p><p>据公开财报显示，国际音乐流媒体巨头Spotify去年三季度在总收入同比增长14%的情况下，净亏损仍达到了1.01亿欧元。而据国元国际证券2020年7月的报告显示，Spotify的订阅付费率已高达50%左右。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>虽然早已实现盈利，但据其财报显示，长期以来贡献了七成左右的营收的，是包含<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>K歌、音乐直播的社交娱乐板块，可谓是“羊毛出在猪身上”。</p><p>字节想破解音乐市场的盈利难题，自然也要面对居高不下的版权成本，和商业化能力不足的现状。</p><p>通过字节在今日头条和抖音的发展路径，或许可以找到字节在版权问题的解决路径。在字节的逻辑下，内容版权的生产方与传播环节的渠道方，并不只是单一的采买关系，更多还是合作关系。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb501d78433111ecb32770a4032e3539\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">早在今日头条时期，字节为了解决版权的难题通过头条号的方式，一方面引入机构媒体入驻，另一方面引导自媒体进行内容生产，丰富产品内容。</p><p>如果字节跳动在这一次能和曾经一样，利用自己的流量传播优势与音乐生产者达成合作，受困于版权采买的高额成本或将被解决。</p><p>此外，抖音购买NBA版权的经验也可以被用音乐版权采买上。在抖音中，音乐大多只播放30秒左右的时间，字节完全可以仅购买适用短视频传播的30秒版权。既避免了高额成本，又保证了优质内容。</p><p>而在收益端，抖音凭借自己的流量优势，在直播打赏等娱乐板块内容的变现能力，并不弱于TME。</p><p>在付费购买单曲等环节，字节可以凭借其强大的算法优势，进行高效分发推荐。引导用户对更多单曲进行付费购买，避免粉丝经济的重复购买等弊端。</p><p>视频与音乐相结合的手段，早已被论证成功。</p><p>音乐利用视频传播的方式由来已久。在大屏时代，MTV、影视作品、音乐综艺等都是音乐传播的重要手段。</p><p>在短视频时代，就变成了以抖音快手为代表的短视频平台。</p><p>据《财新》援引业内人士提供的数据称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>音乐平台上45%左右的峰值歌曲，播放次数最多的正是抖音红歌。</p><p>字母榜通过对QQ音乐和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>云音乐的观察发现，抖音热歌的榜单均取得了上亿次的播放量。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f071b0b13890aab9a75f3bcbb2fd3bf8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>《世间美好与你环环相扣》《大田后生仔》《桥边姑娘》等作品，虽然都是在网易云音乐首发，但最后都是在抖音实现了爆红。</p><p>这与工具属性的播放器，并不是一个好的传播渠道不无关系。</p><p>早在PC时代，作为流量入口的搜索引擎，便是重要的音乐传播渠道。作为MP3辅助搜索的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>音乐盒也是在那一时期产生。</p><p>而在网易云音乐和QQ音乐等平台竞争最激烈的时期，网易云音乐的歌曲一度无法通过微信传播。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>最终凭借着版权优势，和微信社交关系的传播渠道，让QQ音乐守住了霸主地位。</p><p>但长期以来，微信仅作为一个歌曲的传播渠道，而限制了用户的听歌体验。</p><p>张小龙在公开课上，就曾吐槽“所有播放器都是一个电唱机在那里转”这种类似于唱片机时代的原始呈现。</p><p>按照张小龙对音乐的理解，“听歌的时候应该看见一点东西”“很多人在不同的场景听相同的歌曲，把这些听歌的画面连起来，总有一些打动人的相似画面”。</p><p>而短视频平台不仅有这种产品特点，当下还掌握着流量红利。这也让其成为顶级明星，也无法忽视的传播渠道。</p><p>周杰伦的新歌《MOJITO》选择在快手平台同步首发，林俊杰新歌在抖音首唱Live。邓紫棋还亲自下场，号召大家用“拍同款”的方式，为自己的新单曲《超能力》增加热度。</p><p>热歌+明星的联动，可以为短视频贡献大量的优质内容，增加平台的吸引力。而对于明星来说，短视频平台的流量优势和大量的视频创作者，既可以省去在MV上的制作成本，还可以通过歌曲被大量视频使用的方式，而获得曝光机会，迅速出圈。</p><p>《大风吹》和《快乐星球》，就是近期鲜明的例子。</p><p>但在音乐赛道上，字节既要面对着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和快手两个强大的老对手，又要解决和网易云之间的竞合关系。</p><p>如果放弃大手笔版权采买的路径，字节做音乐的模式或许更像曾经的“阿里星球”——一个集音乐制作、宣发、变现于一体的平台。</p><p>但也恰恰是因为“阿里星球”的计划，让其在当年的版权大战中最先退出争夺，这也被外界一致认为是虾米音乐衰落的伏笔。</p><p>在音乐消费中，长期存在着非刚需、实现路径多元（免费的MV和现场录像、付费下载的实现效果相似）、可替代性强（在没有粉丝效应的前提下，免费的音乐和付费的音乐效果相似），审美水平不统一（虽然有了一定的用户规模，但是却无法实现规模化效应）等特点。</p><p>这也导致了用户的付费收益，无法覆盖掉音乐版权的采买成本。</p><p>《处处吻》《暗里着迷》《打雀英雄传》等老歌在抖音上的重唤生机，已经让外界看到了字节强大的音乐运营能力。</p><p>针对性采买一些“性价比”更高的作品版权，并进行二次运营上架，完全可以在一定程度上提升对音乐作品的投资收益率。</p><p>而被音乐人诟病的抖音热歌，套路化的模式，歌词重复，节奏单调，专业性不强等劣势，此时恰恰成为了字节做音乐的优势。</p><p>字节完全可以通过对用户喜好的把握，批量生产出易于传播的作品。</p><p>这既可以解决音乐市场上，对低版权、非明星作品无法实现规模付费的痛点；又能够避免为争夺用户而陷入版权大战中。</p><p>虽然从音乐产品的特点看，字节的擅长的UGC+算法推荐的模式完全可以成立，但如果想避免“阿里星球”的结局，字节仍要在提高创作者收益上做更多努力。</p><p>在抖音孵化出，像罗永浩于抖音电商一样的音乐创作者，或可以丰富字节音乐的内容生态，提高自身的造星能力。</p><p>据《财经》报道，当下抖音音乐人普遍存在着收益不高，歌红人不红的现象。歌曲演唱者往往不是版权拥有者，直接导致了他们无法通过版税获得足够的利润。</p><p>即便是拥有版权的创作者，在版税收入上也并不可观。据《财经》援引行业人士消息，“通常情况下，每1000次播放量能获得2元的收入”。</p><p>另一边受困于演唱者的知名度，则直接限制了在演出市场上的议价能力。最终提高知名度的方式，大多还是要依赖传统的综艺节目。</p><p>像是因《野狼disco》迅速出圈的宝石GEM，迄今为止在抖音上的粉丝也仅有54.8万。如果不是走上了春晚，仅凭抖音平台，很难想象如何能完成商业化和知名度上的跃升。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83506f1063f6cf9b5cac400ddeac5f93\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"1164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">而当下正火的《大风吹》原唱者王鹤野，在抖音上的粉丝也刚过一百万。除了 与《大风吹》有关的内容，几乎没有超过点赞10万的作品。</p><p>与之相对的是#大风吹 话题下60.1亿次的播放量，和QQ音乐平台上连续霸榜三周的搜索结果。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3858d4380333fce67d548666b055640\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e706dc02bbd50a0c251927fade05b314\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>“煮熟鸭子”的字节，肉却没能烂在自己锅里。</p><p>曾经的阿里星球，在用户规模、变现能力、对接音乐人资源等领域，都无法与如今的抖音相比。</p><p>如果音乐也能像电商领域一样，通过下游消费渠道，倒闭上游生产环节，吸引商家（创作者）的方式丰富内容库，字节则有希望实现阿里没完成的大文娱梦。</p><p>至于屡被质疑歌曲的质量问题，在曾经的头条号和淘宝、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>上也都曾出现过。但结果却是，掌握了下游的消费者的平台最终胜出。</p><p>如今众多奢侈品牌早已“放下身段”入驻天猫，未来谁又能保证在音乐厅里演奏的古典音乐，不会出现在抖音里呢？</p>","source":"ZMB","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n抖音奇袭TME？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-26 14:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dqWGrxs_fnrgTzIDW_zKNw><strong> 字母榜</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>无边界的字节跳动，这一次将手伸向了TME的腹地。据Tech星球报道，字节内部已经成立音乐事业部，四个业务组并进赛马。音乐市场上，TME和网易云音乐二人转的格局恐被打破，抖音或将对音乐市场中生产、流通、消费三个环节进行重新整合。在内容生产端，目前看来字节并无版权优势，但购买版权或许并不是张一鸣的战略重点。据36氪报道，2020年初在对抖音的未来规划路径的讨论中，张一鸣便明确反对了做版权内容、IP采买...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dqWGrxs_fnrgTzIDW_zKNw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83c96a071b225e670f1b11b79c4a3e91","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dqWGrxs_fnrgTzIDW_zKNw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2129522843","content_text":"无边界的字节跳动，这一次将手伸向了TME的腹地。据Tech星球报道，字节内部已经成立音乐事业部，四个业务组并进赛马。音乐市场上，TME和网易云音乐二人转的格局恐被打破，抖音或将对音乐市场中生产、流通、消费三个环节进行重新整合。在内容生产端，目前看来字节并无版权优势，但购买版权或许并不是张一鸣的战略重点。据36氪报道，2020年初在对抖音的未来规划路径的讨论中，张一鸣便明确反对了做版权内容、IP采买的发展方向。对生下来就是UGC+算法推荐模式的字节跳动来说，似乎没有大手笔购买版权的基因。即便是在严重依赖版权的中长视频领域，除了《囧妈》的独家首发外，仍不见字节在影视行业，有加入爱优腾版权争夺战的动作。争夺创作者才是字节的战略重点。在悟空问答、西瓜视频等业务线上都是如此。由此可见，激发独立音乐人在抖音上进行音乐创作，或是字节在音乐领域上的工作重点。早在去年，“抖音音乐人亿元补贴计划”便正式向全体音乐人开放，意图通过流量扶持和现金激励的方式，对抖音内部的音乐人进行挖掘。此外，短视频在音乐流通环节的重要性早已被成功论证。对于传统音乐播放软件来说，短视频平台在用户活跃度和使用时长上都是一种降维打击。去年大火的《芒种》《野狼disco》等音乐作品，便都是从短视频平台实现破圈。在消费端，抖音也不缺少在线音乐的目标用户。毕竟，抖音诞生之初的定位就是音乐短视频社区。另据Fastdata极数发布的报告显示，在线音乐用户最大的流向就是短视频平台。海外市场的成功试水，更是给了字节进军国内音乐市场的决心。多家报道显示，字节跳动旗下音乐流媒体应用Resso，去年在印度和印尼正式上线后均取得了不错的反馈。据KrASIA报道，该产品还被评为2020年Google Play的最佳Android 应用之一。另据36kr消息，截止今年9月， Resso在App Store和Google Play两个平台上已获得1520万次下载。总是被“想小了”的抖音，此番加码国内音乐业务似乎就显得顺理成章。《诱导消费者重复购买专辑，揭开音乐App的‘坏心思’》，新华社近日的一则新闻将在线音乐一度推上舆论的风口浪尖。被质疑诱导粉丝非理性消费的打榜背后，凸显的是在线音乐的盈利难题。虽然QQ音乐的月活已超8亿，但是却无法摆脱播放器的工具属性和音乐内容的单一性。在广告变现的路上，既无法形成清晰的用户画像，也无法多场景实现广告的曝光和精准推送。而仅仅是付费用户的会员费用，也无法覆盖购买版权的高额成本。据公开财报显示，国际音乐流媒体巨头Spotify去年三季度在总收入同比增长14%的情况下，净亏损仍达到了1.01亿欧元。而据国元国际证券2020年7月的报告显示，Spotify的订阅付费率已高达50%左右。腾讯音乐虽然早已实现盈利，但据其财报显示，长期以来贡献了七成左右的营收的，是包含全民K歌、音乐直播的社交娱乐板块，可谓是“羊毛出在猪身上”。字节想破解音乐市场的盈利难题，自然也要面对居高不下的版权成本，和商业化能力不足的现状。通过字节在今日头条和抖音的发展路径，或许可以找到字节在版权问题的解决路径。在字节的逻辑下，内容版权的生产方与传播环节的渠道方，并不只是单一的采买关系，更多还是合作关系。早在今日头条时期，字节为了解决版权的难题通过头条号的方式，一方面引入机构媒体入驻，另一方面引导自媒体进行内容生产，丰富产品内容。如果字节跳动在这一次能和曾经一样，利用自己的流量传播优势与音乐生产者达成合作，受困于版权采买的高额成本或将被解决。此外，抖音购买NBA版权的经验也可以被用音乐版权采买上。在抖音中，音乐大多只播放30秒左右的时间，字节完全可以仅购买适用短视频传播的30秒版权。既避免了高额成本，又保证了优质内容。而在收益端，抖音凭借自己的流量优势，在直播打赏等娱乐板块内容的变现能力，并不弱于TME。在付费购买单曲等环节，字节可以凭借其强大的算法优势，进行高效分发推荐。引导用户对更多单曲进行付费购买，避免粉丝经济的重复购买等弊端。视频与音乐相结合的手段，早已被论证成功。音乐利用视频传播的方式由来已久。在大屏时代，MTV、影视作品、音乐综艺等都是音乐传播的重要手段。在短视频时代，就变成了以抖音快手为代表的短视频平台。据《财新》援引业内人士提供的数据称，腾讯音乐平台上45%左右的峰值歌曲，播放次数最多的正是抖音红歌。字母榜通过对QQ音乐和网易云音乐的观察发现，抖音热歌的榜单均取得了上亿次的播放量。《世间美好与你环环相扣》《大田后生仔》《桥边姑娘》等作品，虽然都是在网易云音乐首发，但最后都是在抖音实现了爆红。这与工具属性的播放器，并不是一个好的传播渠道不无关系。早在PC时代，作为流量入口的搜索引擎，便是重要的音乐传播渠道。作为MP3辅助搜索的百度音乐盒也是在那一时期产生。而在网易云音乐和QQ音乐等平台竞争最激烈的时期，网易云音乐的歌曲一度无法通过微信传播。腾讯音乐最终凭借着版权优势，和微信社交关系的传播渠道，让QQ音乐守住了霸主地位。但长期以来，微信仅作为一个歌曲的传播渠道，而限制了用户的听歌体验。张小龙在公开课上，就曾吐槽“所有播放器都是一个电唱机在那里转”这种类似于唱片机时代的原始呈现。按照张小龙对音乐的理解，“听歌的时候应该看见一点东西”“很多人在不同的场景听相同的歌曲，把这些听歌的画面连起来，总有一些打动人的相似画面”。而短视频平台不仅有这种产品特点，当下还掌握着流量红利。这也让其成为顶级明星，也无法忽视的传播渠道。周杰伦的新歌《MOJITO》选择在快手平台同步首发，林俊杰新歌在抖音首唱Live。邓紫棋还亲自下场，号召大家用“拍同款”的方式，为自己的新单曲《超能力》增加热度。热歌+明星的联动，可以为短视频贡献大量的优质内容，增加平台的吸引力。而对于明星来说，短视频平台的流量优势和大量的视频创作者，既可以省去在MV上的制作成本，还可以通过歌曲被大量视频使用的方式，而获得曝光机会，迅速出圈。《大风吹》和《快乐星球》，就是近期鲜明的例子。但在音乐赛道上，字节既要面对着腾讯和快手两个强大的老对手，又要解决和网易云之间的竞合关系。如果放弃大手笔版权采买的路径，字节做音乐的模式或许更像曾经的“阿里星球”——一个集音乐制作、宣发、变现于一体的平台。但也恰恰是因为“阿里星球”的计划，让其在当年的版权大战中最先退出争夺，这也被外界一致认为是虾米音乐衰落的伏笔。在音乐消费中，长期存在着非刚需、实现路径多元（免费的MV和现场录像、付费下载的实现效果相似）、可替代性强（在没有粉丝效应的前提下，免费的音乐和付费的音乐效果相似），审美水平不统一（虽然有了一定的用户规模，但是却无法实现规模化效应）等特点。这也导致了用户的付费收益，无法覆盖掉音乐版权的采买成本。《处处吻》《暗里着迷》《打雀英雄传》等老歌在抖音上的重唤生机，已经让外界看到了字节强大的音乐运营能力。针对性采买一些“性价比”更高的作品版权，并进行二次运营上架，完全可以在一定程度上提升对音乐作品的投资收益率。而被音乐人诟病的抖音热歌，套路化的模式，歌词重复，节奏单调，专业性不强等劣势，此时恰恰成为了字节做音乐的优势。字节完全可以通过对用户喜好的把握，批量生产出易于传播的作品。这既可以解决音乐市场上，对低版权、非明星作品无法实现规模付费的痛点；又能够避免为争夺用户而陷入版权大战中。虽然从音乐产品的特点看，字节的擅长的UGC+算法推荐的模式完全可以成立，但如果想避免“阿里星球”的结局，字节仍要在提高创作者收益上做更多努力。在抖音孵化出，像罗永浩于抖音电商一样的音乐创作者，或可以丰富字节音乐的内容生态，提高自身的造星能力。据《财经》报道，当下抖音音乐人普遍存在着收益不高，歌红人不红的现象。歌曲演唱者往往不是版权拥有者，直接导致了他们无法通过版税获得足够的利润。即便是拥有版权的创作者，在版税收入上也并不可观。据《财经》援引行业人士消息，“通常情况下，每1000次播放量能获得2元的收入”。另一边受困于演唱者的知名度，则直接限制了在演出市场上的议价能力。最终提高知名度的方式，大多还是要依赖传统的综艺节目。像是因《野狼disco》迅速出圈的宝石GEM，迄今为止在抖音上的粉丝也仅有54.8万。如果不是走上了春晚，仅凭抖音平台，很难想象如何能完成商业化和知名度上的跃升。而当下正火的《大风吹》原唱者王鹤野，在抖音上的粉丝也刚过一百万。除了 与《大风吹》有关的内容，几乎没有超过点赞10万的作品。与之相对的是#大风吹 话题下60.1亿次的播放量，和QQ音乐平台上连续霸榜三周的搜索结果。“煮熟鸭子”的字节，肉却没能烂在自己锅里。曾经的阿里星球，在用户规模、变现能力、对接音乐人资源等领域，都无法与如今的抖音相比。如果音乐也能像电商领域一样，通过下游消费渠道，倒闭上游生产环节，吸引商家（创作者）的方式丰富内容库，字节则有希望实现阿里没完成的大文娱梦。至于屡被质疑歌曲的质量问题，在曾经的头条号和淘宝、拼多多上也都曾出现过。但结果却是，掌握了下游的消费者的平台最终胜出。如今众多奢侈品牌早已“放下身段”入驻天猫，未来谁又能保证在音乐厅里演奏的古典音乐，不会出现在抖音里呢？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":344489732,"gmtCreate":1618427681026,"gmtModify":1634293021884,"author":{"id":"3577365538114922","authorId":"3577365538114922","name":"银色蚂蚁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e8524107a986c74239171a15e29e41","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>加油","listText":"<a 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