wwwee的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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wwwee

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0勋章

2020-09-16

$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$1. pton在台湾有厂了产能提升。2. 暂时没有进军中国的想法。3. 苹果对pton的影响会有，但是不多。pton的less affluent 客户占比非常少。苹果9.99 一个月只提供课，不提供器材。这个课可以和youtuber直接竞争，但是影响pton比较少。pton应该让自己的东西更便宜更好。4. 竞争利好消费者

2020-11-12

$拼多多(PDD)$我错了，我买了$京东(JD)$买了$阿里巴巴(BABA)$就是忘了你

2021-12-08

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$刚听完business update。简单说一下：开头介绍了一下公司的高管经验多么丰富。自己车多好。第一家store位于beverly hills。反复强调2022 年7月可以交付ff91。但是ff81 和ff71 需要raise 额外的1.5billion（如果我没听错的话）才可以。目前账上现金600M，按q3这个速度，够烧两个季度的。

2021-05-26

参考当年广场协议。美金主动贬值，日本出口承压。问题是日本出口的是高精尖，高附加值的技术产品。我们出口的是什么？现在原材料上涨，人民币升值。外贸出口型企业雪上加霜。

人民币升值可以抵消通胀压力，带来一波牛市吗？

2021-11-03

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$感觉这个新来的cfo是来搞增发的

2021-02-05

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$补货

2020-12-11

$蔚来(NIO)$$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$斌哥发话了。

2020-12-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎再这么割客户真的要去换futu了 886 好自为之🐯

2021-01-05

$老虎证券(TIGR)$终于等到你还好没放弃

2020-12-02

$蔚来(NIO)$老虎和futu的资金流向怎么差这么多？老虎显示中小单出逃。 futu显示今天反而净流入？

2020-10-22

$老虎证券(TIGR)$when you fly

2021-07-28

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$zf带跌的现在也不出来说句话，不care老百姓的钱包是吧？

2021-01-13

$微美全息(WIMI)$还好没卖你啊

2020-12-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$$蔚来(NIO)$最新出台

2021-01-29

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$不让买入的话，那股票卖给谁？谁买？哦？难道只有机构能买？散户不能买？

2020-09-05

$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$ 可以 $蔚来(NIO)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 都跌了，就你涨了

2020-08-31

$皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)$ 这货自己偷偷得涨到了$70？！

2020-07-17

$挪威邮轮(NCLH)$ 还好昨天出掉了，管住手没入！跟前几天突然大涨一样的套路

2021-08-23

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$无法做空？？？那做空池都快没货了，老虎这个平台结局无法做空？

2021-01-05

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$拿住

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美股老玩家或者一直追我文章的朋友可以发现，美股市场每次大事公布前后涨跌幅肯定是相反的：好事落地前一天市场下跌，坏事落地前一天市场上涨，这个规律简直屡试不爽。 了解这个规律可以阻止暴涨暴跌时的头脑发热，告诉自己再等等。所以这个规律对我来说也只是起到一种信号作用，也只是不亏钱，这也就够了。事实上我印象中也是有概率事件落地前后大盘走势相同。 1、CPI 本周最大事件美股1月CPI落地，比预期中还要差，同比上涨7.5% ，高于预期7.3%，创1982年2月以来新高。数据公布后国债收益率迅速飙升至1.974%，奔向2%。 具体这样的数据带给市场的观感是什么样呢？公布前市场认为今年加息为5次左右，而现在美国利率期货显示2022年加息近6次。在3月加息点数上，大部分人都知道不是25个基点就是50个基点，但认为50基点概率只有27%，而本次数据公布后美国利率期货暗示市场押注有43%的机会在加息50个基点。 所以大盘一下就崩了。别给自己的股票找下跌原因啦，都是大盘带的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 2、很可惜迪士尼财报赌失败了，不过没关系，从今天发布财报的公司来看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCS\">$Doximity, Inc.(DOCS)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWLO\">$Twilio Inc(TWLO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOS\">$加拿大鹅(GOOS)$</a> ，暴涨暴跌是本季报常态，尤其是成长股。所以继续用利润押注就是了，依然","listText":"如果每次都是套路，那么套路就不是套路了。 美股老玩家或者一直追我文章的朋友可以发现，美股市场每次大事公布前后涨跌幅肯定是相反的：好事落地前一天市场下跌，坏事落地前一天市场上涨，这个规律简直屡试不爽。 了解这个规律可以阻止暴涨暴跌时的头脑发热，告诉自己再等等。所以这个规律对我来说也只是起到一种信号作用，也只是不亏钱，这也就够了。事实上我印象中也是有概率事件落地前后大盘走势相同。 1、CPI 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哦吼","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefce02122ff4379a17d11d3d94ce3ea","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694377240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694370228,"gmtCreate":1641831956072,"gmtModify":1641831956072,"author":{"id":"3557157176462714","authorId":"3557157176462714","name":"wwwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e08325d1988f46f698bebb16ed94160","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220114 1065.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20220114 1065.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>死给fed看","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220114 1065.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20220114 1065.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>死给fed看","text":"$TSLA 20220114 1065.0 CALL$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WIMI\">$微美全息(WIMI)$</a>这股的股托怎么还在啊","text":"$微美全息(WIMI)$这股的股托怎么还在啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698961153","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698963789,"gmtCreate":1640277151359,"gmtModify":1640277151359,"author":{"id":"3557157176462714","authorId":"3557157176462714","name":"wwwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e08325d1988f46f698bebb16ed94160","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20211223 1040.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20211223 1040.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>特斯拉真是yyds 以后就做sp500里的顶尖股了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20211223 1040.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20211223 1040.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>特斯拉真是yyds 以后就做sp500里的顶尖股了","text":"$TSLA 20211223 1040.0 CALL$ 特斯拉真是yyds 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冲啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/262b46c68371c7de4e6d00704291102b","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698983799","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607763999,"gmtCreate":1639601120498,"gmtModify":1639601120498,"author":{"id":"3557157176462714","authorId":"3557157176462714","name":"wwwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e08325d1988f46f698bebb16ed94160","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20211217 290.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20211217 290.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>哦嗯","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20211217 290.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20211217 290.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>哦嗯","text":"$NVDA 20211217 290.0 CALL$ 哦嗯","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4125ca5fb80ae8811c465b262e19c3a3","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607763999","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606570046,"gmtCreate":1638912425228,"gmtModify":1638912425228,"author":{"id":"3557157176462714","authorId":"3557157176462714","name":"wwwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e08325d1988f46f698bebb16ed94160","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>刚听完business update。简单说一下：开头介绍了一下公司的高管经验多么丰富。自己车多好。第一家store位于beverly hills。反复强调2022 年7月可以交付ff91。但是ff81 和ff71 需要raise 额外的1.5billion（如果我没听错的话）才可以。目前账上现金600M，按q3这个速度，够烧两个季度的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20211210 165.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20211210 165.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>哦嗯","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20211210 165.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20211210 165.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>哦嗯","text":"$AAPL 20211210 165.0 CALL$ 哦嗯","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea932098c82be4908c723c9b1dedcb5d","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606249711","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1078,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":972630201,"gmtCreate":1600194964603,"gmtModify":1703820717749,"author":{"id":"3557157176462714","authorId":"3557157176462714","name":"wwwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e08325d1988f46f698bebb16ed94160","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton 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竞争利好消费者","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972630201","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3473239093042706","authorId":"3473239093042706","name":"看一眼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a84f5e344772736e621cec9cf6efdc2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"而且pton的社区氛围是苹果永远无法具备的","text":"而且pton的社区氛围是苹果永远无法具备的","html":"而且pton的社区氛围是苹果永远无法具备的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":304175656,"gmtCreate":1605187676575,"gmtModify":1703836639272,"author":{"id":"3557157176462714","authorId":"3557157176462714","name":"wwwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e08325d1988f46f698bebb16ed94160","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>我错了，我买了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>买了<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>就是忘了你","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$我错了，我买了$京东(JD)$买了$阿里巴巴(BABA)$就是忘了你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304175656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550489499551948","authorId":"3550489499551948","name":"李大大2020","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"京东放手上跌不会慌，PDD不敢拿","text":"京东放手上跌不会慌，PDD不敢拿","html":"京东放手上跌不会慌，PDD不敢拿"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606570046,"gmtCreate":1638912425228,"gmtModify":1638912425228,"author":{"id":"3557157176462714","authorId":"3557157176462714","name":"wwwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e08325d1988f46f698bebb16ed94160","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday 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额外的1.5billion（如果我没听错的话）才可以。目前账上现金600M，按q3这个速度，够烧两个季度的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606570046","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472539425201372","authorId":"3472539425201372","name":"楠竹先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d25305d2d90bf70f5bd39edd845328","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"账上现金6亿刀，就是说已经花了4亿刀，现在的进度，像是花了4亿刀的样子吗？","text":"账上现金6亿刀，就是说已经花了4亿刀，现在的进度，像是花了4亿刀的样子吗？","html":"账上现金6亿刀，就是说已经花了4亿刀，现在的进度，像是花了4亿刀的样子吗？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":136801112,"gmtCreate":1622002889136,"gmtModify":1622002889136,"author":{"id":"3557157176462714","authorId":"3557157176462714","name":"wwwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e08325d1988f46f698bebb16ed94160","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"参考当年广场协议。美金主动贬值，日本出口承压。问题是日本出口的是高精尖，高附加值的技术产品。我们出口的是什么？现在原材料上涨，人民币升值。外贸出口型企业雪上加霜。","listText":"参考当年广场协议。美金主动贬值，日本出口承压。问题是日本出口的是高精尖，高附加值的技术产品。我们出口的是什么？现在原材料上涨，人民币升值。外贸出口型企业雪上加霜。","text":"参考当年广场协议。美金主动贬值，日本出口承压。问题是日本出口的是高精尖，高附加值的技术产品。我们出口的是什么？现在原材料上涨，人民币升值。外贸出口型企业雪上加霜。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136801112","repostId":"1108470999","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108470999","pubTimestamp":1621998298,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108470999?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-26 11:04","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"人民币升值可以抵消通胀压力，带来一波牛市吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108470999","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"汇率升值的冲击可能带来政策的阶段性微调。","content":"<p>作者：邵翔 陶川</p>\n<p>近期人民币汇率屡次刷新年内新高，一度冲破6.4的关口。这背后除了美元走弱的因素外，<b>汇率升值控制输入性通胀的政策预期也在发酵</b>：一方面，近期高层屡次强调控制大宗商品价格上涨；另一方面，央行官员发文表示「增强汇率弹性，人民币适当升值，抵御输入性效应」。那么，当前汇率升值是不是抵御输入型通胀的良方呢？</p>\n<p><b>汇率升值≠人民币相对美元升值</b>。理解汇率影响通胀的第一个误区就是错把汇率升值等同于人民币相对美元升值（即美元兑人民币下跌），这一逻辑很直观，从下面的公式可以看出，由于大宗商品通常由美元计价，在其他条件不变的情况下，人民币升值将会带来输入价格的下跌。但问题在于，<b>在市场化的环境下人民币升值往往对应着美元贬值，美元贬值也会带来大宗商品的升值，一涨一跌最终的结果并不明确</b>：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22bb282fecac23c27dd09573de7ba772\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"35\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>有效汇率升值客观上能够限制通胀。</b>有效汇率是人民币相对主要贸易伙伴的加权汇率，从实际效果来看，<b>历史上大多数时期有效汇率上升往往对应原材料购进价格的下降</b>（图1）。而央行也曾在2007年第三季度的货币政策执行报告中明确表示「<b>本币升值有利于抑制国内通货膨胀</b>」（此处的本币升值指的就是人民币有效汇率的升值），有趣的是当时我国也面临较大的输入型通胀压力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b695dd762d2ff52b9e07a1a9782f639c\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>如何才能使得有效汇率升值？</b>简单而言，当美元升值时，人民币汇率相较其他主流货币跌得更少（美元兑人民币涨幅小于美元指数）；或者当美元贬值时，人民币汇率相对其他货币升值更多（图3）。当前阶段这就要求人民币升值的幅度要大于美元指数贬值的幅度。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d15ce6056e938d76b793d68b48a9dd8\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>为什么当前不是使用汇率工具的时间窗口？</b>我们可以从政策手段和结构性「副作用」等角度来说明：</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>如何让人民币升值的幅度大于美元指数？</b>今年中美经济增长之差难以给予人民币升值更大的动力，<b>进一步收紧货币政策，例如加息可能才是主要手段</b>，但当前条件并不成熟，而且可能带来跨境资金再次大幅流入，不利于国内的金融稳定；</p></li>\n <li><p><b>汇率升值对于小型企业的冲击更大。</b>人民币汇率升值往往会对中小企业产生更大的冲击（图4），这可能与中小型制造企业出口导向更加明显有关。汇率大幅升值与今年支持实体经济，稳企业保就业的政策基调相悖。</p></li>\n <li><p>与2007年相比，<b>当前价格传导的不畅会削弱了下游中小企业吸收汇率升值冲击的能力。</b>2007年央行默许汇率升值可以控制通胀之后，人民币有效汇率确实出现了显著的上涨。不过值得注意的是当时PPI和CPI都出现了显著的上涨，价格传导较为顺畅，而<b>当前CPI疲软背后凸显的是下游企业的经营压力，若叠加汇率大幅升值的冲击，利润可能进一步被侵蚀</b>（图5和图6）。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2347e0e2a57f4742917cedcae3082e24\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>展望后市，汇率政策基调不变，但汇率因素可能成为变数。</b>综合以上分析，<b>当前央行保持「稳汇率」的基调是适宜的</b>。但市场并不总会跟着政策意图行进，人民币汇率市场本身具备较大的「惯性」，容易涨过头或是跌过头，随着下半年美联储Taper预期的升温，我们有理由相信美元当前的跌势是不可持续的，但<b>在美元由弱企稳的窗口期人民币汇率的继续升值可能导致有效汇率进一步上涨，彼时汇率升值的冲击可能带来政策的阶段性微调</b>，例如货币政策上可能会阶段性放松流动性或是更加倾向于稳信贷。</p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>经济复苏超预期导致过热，支持政策提前退出；海外疫情继续发酵，海外经济复苏出现二次探底，美股出现大幅调整。</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>人民币升值可以抵消通胀压力，带来一波牛市吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n人民币升值可以抵消通胀压力，带来一波牛市吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-26 11:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ypVTSzSh_aTtC0q8FWfl0w><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：邵翔 陶川\n近期人民币汇率屡次刷新年内新高，一度冲破6.4的关口。这背后除了美元走弱的因素外，汇率升值控制输入性通胀的政策预期也在发酵：一方面，近期高层屡次强调控制大宗商品价格上涨；另一方面，央行官员发文表示「增强汇率弹性，人民币适当升值，抵御输入性效应」。那么，当前汇率升值是不是抵御输入型通胀的良方呢？\n汇率升值≠人民币相对美元升值。理解汇率影响通胀的第一个误区就是错把汇率升值等同于人民币...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ypVTSzSh_aTtC0q8FWfl0w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2828f82074ae602b8c99b18e0b71209a","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ypVTSzSh_aTtC0q8FWfl0w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108470999","content_text":"作者：邵翔 陶川\n近期人民币汇率屡次刷新年内新高，一度冲破6.4的关口。这背后除了美元走弱的因素外，汇率升值控制输入性通胀的政策预期也在发酵：一方面，近期高层屡次强调控制大宗商品价格上涨；另一方面，央行官员发文表示「增强汇率弹性，人民币适当升值，抵御输入性效应」。那么，当前汇率升值是不是抵御输入型通胀的良方呢？\n汇率升值≠人民币相对美元升值。理解汇率影响通胀的第一个误区就是错把汇率升值等同于人民币相对美元升值（即美元兑人民币下跌），这一逻辑很直观，从下面的公式可以看出，由于大宗商品通常由美元计价，在其他条件不变的情况下，人民币升值将会带来输入价格的下跌。但问题在于，在市场化的环境下人民币升值往往对应着美元贬值，美元贬值也会带来大宗商品的升值，一涨一跌最终的结果并不明确：\n\n有效汇率升值客观上能够限制通胀。有效汇率是人民币相对主要贸易伙伴的加权汇率，从实际效果来看，历史上大多数时期有效汇率上升往往对应原材料购进价格的下降（图1）。而央行也曾在2007年第三季度的货币政策执行报告中明确表示「本币升值有利于抑制国内通货膨胀」（此处的本币升值指的就是人民币有效汇率的升值），有趣的是当时我国也面临较大的输入型通胀压力。\n\n如何才能使得有效汇率升值？简单而言，当美元升值时，人民币汇率相较其他主流货币跌得更少（美元兑人民币涨幅小于美元指数）；或者当美元贬值时，人民币汇率相对其他货币升值更多（图3）。当前阶段这就要求人民币升值的幅度要大于美元指数贬值的幅度。\n\n为什么当前不是使用汇率工具的时间窗口？我们可以从政策手段和结构性「副作用」等角度来说明：\n\n如何让人民币升值的幅度大于美元指数？今年中美经济增长之差难以给予人民币升值更大的动力，进一步收紧货币政策，例如加息可能才是主要手段，但当前条件并不成熟，而且可能带来跨境资金再次大幅流入，不利于国内的金融稳定；\n汇率升值对于小型企业的冲击更大。人民币汇率升值往往会对中小企业产生更大的冲击（图4），这可能与中小型制造企业出口导向更加明显有关。汇率大幅升值与今年支持实体经济，稳企业保就业的政策基调相悖。\n与2007年相比，当前价格传导的不畅会削弱了下游中小企业吸收汇率升值冲击的能力。2007年央行默许汇率升值可以控制通胀之后，人民币有效汇率确实出现了显著的上涨。不过值得注意的是当时PPI和CPI都出现了显著的上涨，价格传导较为顺畅，而当前CPI疲软背后凸显的是下游企业的经营压力，若叠加汇率大幅升值的冲击，利润可能进一步被侵蚀（图5和图6）。\n\n\n展望后市，汇率政策基调不变，但汇率因素可能成为变数。综合以上分析，当前央行保持「稳汇率」的基调是适宜的。但市场并不总会跟着政策意图行进，人民币汇率市场本身具备较大的「惯性」，容易涨过头或是跌过头，随着下半年美联储Taper预期的升温，我们有理由相信美元当前的跌势是不可持续的，但在美元由弱企稳的窗口期人民币汇率的继续升值可能导致有效汇率进一步上涨，彼时汇率升值的冲击可能带来政策的阶段性微调，例如货币政策上可能会阶段性放松流动性或是更加倾向于稳信贷。\n风险提示：经济复苏超预期导致过热，支持政策提前退出；海外疫情继续发酵，海外经济复苏出现二次探底，美股出现大幅调整。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3508809496105701","authorId":"3508809496105701","name":"估值坑人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"现在不一样，美国自身难保，美国经济不好，只能印钱提高福利。老美没有空管其他国家","text":"现在不一样，美国自身难保，美国经济不好，只能印钱提高福利。老美没有空管其他国家","html":"现在不一样，美国自身难保，美国经济不好，只能印钱提高福利。老美没有空管其他国家"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841928876,"gmtCreate":1635869615319,"gmtModify":1635869615319,"author":{"id":"3557157176462714","authorId":"3557157176462714","name":"wwwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e08325d1988f46f698bebb16ed94160","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Future(FFIE)$感觉这个新来的cfo是来搞增发的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841928876","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472539425201372","authorId":"3472539425201372","name":"楠竹先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d25305d2d90bf70f5bd39edd845328","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"刚弄到10亿美元就烧完了？这才3个月而已？3个月用完10亿，有比这更快的烧钱速度吗？","text":"刚弄到10亿美元就烧完了？这才3个月而已？3个月用完10亿，有比这更快的烧钱速度吗？","html":"刚弄到10亿美元就烧完了？这才3个月而已？3个月用完10亿，有比这更快的烧钱速度吗？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317464043,"gmtCreate":1612473990982,"gmtModify":1703762396123,"author":{"id":"3557157176462714","authorId":"3557157176462714","name":"wwwee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e08325d1988f46f698bebb16ed94160","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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