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財騋了

財騋了

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2020-02-05

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$瑞幸这次回应慢又含糊其辞，那两天时间明显在找香橼商量做盘

2019-08-18

$The RealReal(REAL)$这股能上车了嘛

2019-10-09

$滔搏(06110)$明天上市吗？

2019-08-04

$中烟香港(06055)$啥时候能买呀

2019-09-20

$天然气主连(NGmain)$今天看样子要反弹回补下

2019-09-15

$布油现金主连(BZmain)$这点布油区别在哪里啊

2019-08-11

$中烟香港(06055)$什么时候降低到100股一手就好了

2023-12-12

说错了会赔钱吗，还是拿着韭菜的钱去逍遥呢

李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产

2019-10-16

$黄金主连(GCmain)$这是在耍猴呢一上一跳的

2019-09-22

$天然气主连(NGmain)$明天怎么走

2019-11-13

$天然气主连(NGmain)$居然完全看不到支撑，走势完全和前面一波一模一样的形态

2019-10-28

$天然气主连(NGmain)$有点强啊

2019-10-13

$Roku Inc(ROKU)$超跌反弹行情吗？

2019-10-04

$黄金主连(GCmain)$今晚非农行情会怎么走？

2019-07-01

$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 反向指标

2020-05-01

$跟谁学(GSX)$香橼居然还活着，上次说瑞幸知道60块的

2020-04-29

$好未来(TAL)$厉害，造假还能猛涨

2020-03-20

$道琼斯(.DJI)$到底四巫日是什么意思？

2019-10-25

$黄金主连(GCmain)$黄金要多久没几月几号换次主力合约？

2019-10-19

$微英镑主连(MGBPmain)$这合约tws上代码是多少

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13:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2390346757","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"提醒部分投资者“踏空风险”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。</p><p>作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。</p><p>李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><p>她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。</p><h2 id=\"id_3719791639\">市场“一致预期”是错的</h2><p>李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。</p><p>然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。</p><p>她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。</p><p>以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。</p><p>具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。</p><h2 id=\"id_1700695953\">小心“踏空风险”</h2><p>李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。</p><p>基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><h2 id=\"id_414897472\">大牛市和经济高增长未必同步</h2><p>很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。</p><p>李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。</p><p>她举了两个例子：</p><blockquote><p>其一，1940年代末，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。</p><p>其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。</p></blockquote><p>因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。</p><p>未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。</p><h2 id=\"id_2621002691\">如何防控风险 ？</h2><p>对于投资者规避风险的方法，李蓓有两点亲身经验。</p><p>其一，可以用期权工具。国内隐含波动15%以内，美国和中国香港市场都要超过30%，因此在A股可以用看涨期权进行表达，比如买入大盘股指数看涨期权。</p><p>其二，控制仓位。由于市场现在是左侧，需要防范净值大幅波动，等右侧机会来了再加仓。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-12 13:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c734b87f52be5f120b1c0c0583b68e11","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2390346757","content_text":"12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。小心“踏空风险”李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。大牛市和经济高增长未必同步很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。她举了两个例子：其一，1940年代末，美国标普500指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。如何防控风险 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11:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"满999减100，在瑞幸咖啡上，买一个苹果耳机？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2022710539","media":"投中网","summary":"“跨界大王”瑞幸又来讲新故事了。2020年3月23日，瑞幸上线“樱花购物节·数码周”，摆出了数十款数码产品，满999减100。“爆品直降”、“限时秒杀”这些电商专属的字眼，出现在了这款卖咖啡的APP中","content":"<html><body><article><p>“跨界大王”瑞幸又来讲新故事了。</p><p>2020年3月23日，瑞幸上线“樱花购物节·数码周”，摆出了数十款数码产品，满999减100。“爆品直降”、“限时秒杀”这些电商专属的字眼，出现在了这款卖咖啡的APP中。</p><p>这意味着，通过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>，用户可以买到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>耳机、机械键盘、电动牙刷、便当盒，甚至帆布包和洗手液。</p><p>“进击电商”的操作让一向神秘的瑞幸更加莫测。</p><p>然而，早在瑞幸咖啡成立之时，“无限场景”的品牌战略就已经给出了答案。回头来看，这也是瑞幸咖啡每每跨界都离不开的底层逻辑。</p><p>说到底，瑞幸咖啡其实并不神秘。</p><p><strong>“比神州还大”的生意</strong></p><p>在中国资本市场上，瑞幸咖啡称得上是奇迹般的存在。</p><p>2018年，在上市潮与破发潮齐飞的现实面前，中国VC们开始普遍意识到一级市场的估值已经被严重透支。当模式创新的红利被挖掘殆尽，不断烧钱来换取市场增长的商业模式也已不受青睐。</p><p>正是在这一年，顶着高额补贴与疯狂扩张的标签，瑞幸咖啡横空出世。</p><p>瑞幸咖啡的打法，在烧钱换增长不再流行的投资市场上备受争议。不论是运作模式、成长速度还是估值逻辑，从任何角度窥探，瑞幸咖啡都可以是“新物种”。</p><p>整体上看，瑞幸咖啡的神秘不仅缘于其“蒙眼狂奔”背后的不动声色、神话般的上市速度，另一个原因或许还在于其上市之后仍以看似讲不完的“新故事”不断突破产品的定义。</p><p>这一切，都早已深藏在钱治亚团队的基因之中。</p><p>2017年11月8日，时任神州优车董事、副总经理的钱治亚按下了职业重启键。</p><p>对于钱治亚的离职创业，神州优车董事长陆正耀给予了由衷理解与高度支持，并表示愿鼎力相助，“为她打call”。</p><p>陆正耀认为，钱治亚创业新领域的商业前景并不小，“也许比神州还大”。在与陆正耀的饭局上，钱治亚说，要用互联网的思维和速度来做咖啡，“我们的目标就是要（在国内）打败<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>。”</p><p>这个目标并非一时兴起。</p><p>在瑞幸咖啡创始团队刚开始产生做咖啡项目的创业想法时，有一次，陆正耀、钱治亚与瑞幸咖啡最早和最大的外部机构投资者——大钲资本董事长黎辉一起去北美出差，在机场的一个星巴克门店排队很久才买到了售价并不便宜的星巴克。</p><p>作为一名“咖啡发烧友”，钱治亚认为，瑞幸咖啡的商业模式一定是要“挣效率的钱”，用新零售咖啡的形式与星巴克竞争。</p><p>钱治亚想法与陆正耀不谋而合。对于瑞幸咖啡，后来的事实证明，不管是资金支持、资源倾斜还是战略把关，陆正耀都表现地十足慷慨。</p><p>一方面，在瑞幸咖啡成立初期，陆正耀就将神州优车新大楼的空余区域租了一部分给瑞幸咖啡，并且后者的公关业务直接由前者的公关团队负责；另一方面，陆正耀还做了瑞幸的天使投资人，并借了一笔钱给钱治亚。</p><p>特别是在资本与战略层面，瑞幸咖啡的“神州系”标签使其在成立的短短半年内便完成了估值为10亿美元的A轮融资，并由此一脚迈入了独角兽行列，成为了国内成长最快的独角兽。</p><p><strong>深谋远虑的“闪电战”</strong></p><p>同早期神州优车的打法一致，早在2016年初，陆正耀就带领瑞幸初始团队开始细化业务的商业模式、财务模型，并且推演各种可能突发情况下的防范策略，计算出业务不同发展阶段的资金需求和融资节奏。</p><p>在陆正耀看来，瑞幸咖啡的商业模式，是通过交易模式的创新和技术的应用，根本上改变了原有咖啡行业的交易结构，从而带来了交易成本的显著下降。同时，通过和各领域顶级供应商的深度合作，为客户带来高品质、高性价比和高便利性的咖啡及其它产品。</p><p>对于陆正耀来说，瑞幸咖啡是一场深谋远虑的“闪电战”，每一个脚印都要经过精密的计算。这是他作为福建商人的一贯打法。此后，瑞幸咖啡的崛起更是与神州优车如出一辙：巨额融资、大量补贴、疯狂扩张。</p><p>“蒙眼狂奔”的质疑袭来。</p><p>“烧了十来个亿。”2018年7月，瑞幸创始人兼CEO钱治亚在发布会上轻描淡写地说。</p><p>这个轰动业内的数据，在她看来并不值得一提。毕竟，在上一场出行的战争中，她经手的支出，是几十个亿。</p><p>“烧钱换流量的潜台词无非就是亏损，但是获取用户客群以及构建品牌认知度必须前期投入。就如同星巴克为了获取用户把店开在最好的位置，也是为了获取流量。”黎辉并不赞同对瑞幸咖啡“烧钱”与“砸流量”这两个说法。</p><p>愉悦资本创始及执行合伙人刘二海也有相似观点。“什么叫烧钱呢？你是看短期盈利还是看长期发展？对于投资来说，长期不赚钱肯定是垃圾，但短期不赚钱就意味着长期不赚钱吗？”对于瑞幸咖啡一直以来备受争议的亏损问题，刘二海如是表示。</p><p>质疑声此起彼伏，瑞幸却以最快速度直奔纳斯达克。</p><p>2019年5月18日，也就是瑞幸咖啡成立18个月后，钱治亚携团队敲响纳斯达克的钟声。上市首日，瑞幸咖啡股价大涨19.88%，总市值达47.4亿美元，成为“史上最快IPO”。</p><p>瑞幸咖啡联合创始人、高级副总裁郭谨一曾解释称，“我没想过这个生意能否慢下来。中国这个商业环境，以前是大鱼吃小鱼，现在是快鱼吃慢鱼，一个商业模式如果能跑通的话，很快就会有很多追随者”。</p><p>此外，“中国企业又不缺钱，所以一个好的商业模式，你必须自己要跑很快。”郭谨一表示。</p><p><strong>大数据“孵化”的秘密</strong></p><p>2019年7月8日，北京凯迪拉克中心，一场声势浩大的媒体沟通会正在进行。</p><p>在盛大的瞩目中，瑞幸“小鹿茶”被推向台前。与之惊艳亮相的，还有瑞幸聘请的全新品牌代言人刘昊然。“啵一口，小鹿茶”，伴随着为小鹿茶量身打造的新歌《给鹿小姐的一封信》音乐响起，瑞幸咖啡宣布正式进军茶饮市场，打造属于年轻人的“活力下午茶”。</p><p>这是瑞幸咖啡上市后向市场上扔出第一颗深弹，距其“光速”上市不足两月。</p><p>“进军新式茶饮是瑞幸咖啡的既定战略。”郭谨一的解释言简意赅。事实上，多数精明的投资人也丝毫不意外于这个本质上为品类扩张的游戏，并对此深以为然。</p><p>对于大多数品牌而言，这似乎是商业变现的通路，被称为“神话“的瑞幸咖啡当然也不例外。“首先，以各种方式圈好人群基数，在这个基础上再去通过拓品类等其它方式提高复购率与产品客单价，保证用户的品牌忠诚度；最后一步，即优化成本结构，提升盈利能力。”众海投资副总裁张烨秋对投中网分析表示。</p><p>换言之，瑞幸咖啡剧本更新的核心驱动力其实是始终要盈利的生意逻辑，起码财务模型看上去得是那个样子。</p><p>不止一位投资人对投中网表示，新式茶饮相对而言毛利较高，同时也较容易帮助瑞幸打造出爆品以及差异化产品，从而在同样获客成本的基础上提高客单价，拉升消费频次。甚至很多人认为，仅是国内的咖啡市场，还远远撑不起瑞幸咖啡的估值。</p><p>某种程度上，这两者的潜台词分别意味着瑞幸咖啡长时期的大额亏损与不算合理的估值。也正是这交织的两面，构成了“新物种”瑞幸咖啡带给人们的刻板印象与复杂情绪。</p><p>然而，一直以来，尽管质疑与非议不断，瑞幸咖啡却从未给予客观意义上的正面解释，公关手段相当“佛系”。取而代之的是，瑞幸咖啡反而踩着自己的鼓点，继续一如既往的促销补贴，以及，保持在阶段时间里对外推出新战略。</p><p>这使得本就让人捉摸不透的瑞幸咖啡更是蒙上了一层谜。</p><p>2020年1月8日，瑞幸咖啡再次召开新品发布会，正式推出无人零售咖啡机“瑞即购”和无人售卖机“瑞划算”，进场无人零售。在场景铺设上，这两大无人零售终端机将覆盖办公室、校园、机场、车站、加油站、高速公路服务区和社区等各个场所，与现有的瑞幸咖啡门店网络相辅相成、互相补充。</p><p>在钱治亚眼中，瑞幸咖啡的无人零售战略是瑞幸咖啡“无限场景”品牌的进一步延伸，将充分利用中国互联网新基础设施的优势，驱动零售行业再次升级。</p><p>如果说瑞幸“小鹿茶”只是瑞幸咖啡野心释放的一小步，此次的无人零售计划却十足地暴露了瑞幸咖啡的算盘与棋局。与此同时，钱治亚也首次揭开了瑞幸咖啡的谜底，即以大数据为核心、以科技与品牌为基石的集合自有流量与自有产品闭环的智能零售平台，持续一手发展流量，一手发展产品。</p><p>毫无疑问，这个答案里潜藏了太多可发展空间。单是品牌这一项定位，就可以复制出来无数个“瑞幸咖啡”。而且，无论是何种品类，瑞幸品牌的核心竞争力都在于大数据驱动供应链变革带来的成本优势。</p><p>或许，大多数人并不愿意去真正剖析这一模式下的市场颠覆性，或者说，不愿相信甚至并不相信这门生意可持续的必然性。要知道，从瑞幸咖啡成立之日起，“无限场景”始终都是其主打的品牌战略与模式标签。</p><p>这似乎不难理解。毕竟，一个不可忽略的一个事实是，尽管实现了惊人的数据增长，但“未设<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06838\">盈利时</a>间表”的瑞幸咖啡至今都尚未盈利。</p><p>根据瑞幸咖啡第三季度财报，根据瑞幸咖啡2019年第三季度（截至9月30日）的财报，2019年第三季度，瑞幸咖啡产品净收入14.93亿元，同比增长558%；净亏损为5.319亿元（约合7440万美元）；当季月均交易用户930万，同比增长398%；当季月均销售产品件数4420万件，同比增长470%；截止2019年9月30日，瑞幸咖啡门店总数同比增长210%，达3680家。</p><p>不过，钱治亚显然已经看到了瑞幸咖啡盈利前景的可能。她认为，门店数量、月均交易用户数和月均销售商品数量快速增长的同时，瑞幸咖啡产品净收入的更高更快增长就已经说明，瑞幸咖啡的门店运营效率与盈利能力都在显著提高。</p><p>“聪明的投资者们会看到瑞幸咖啡对整个消费市场的改变与其无限的发展潜力。”钱治亚强调。诚然，相较于盈利而言，投资人的生意其实更依赖于于企业的长期价值与高速增长。从这个角度来看，瑞幸咖啡的成长路径与未来市场毋庸置疑。</p><p>当然，后来的事实也证明了资本市场对于瑞幸咖啡的信心。上市后，瑞幸股价一度高开高走，市值突破100亿美元，较上市首日的市值已经翻倍，并被纳入了MSCI指数。</p><p>回过头看，瑞幸咖啡的神秘也许正是来自于其看似疯狂举措背后的并不复杂的商业逻辑，而往往，简单就是终极的复杂。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>满999减100，在瑞幸咖啡上，买一个苹果耳机？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n满999减100，在瑞幸咖啡上，买一个苹果耳机？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-26 11:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003261201157aee8f23&s=b><strong>投中网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“跨界大王”瑞幸又来讲新故事了。2020年3月23日，瑞幸上线“樱花购物节·数码周”，摆出了数十款数码产品，满999减100。“爆品直降”、“限时秒杀”这些电商专属的字眼，出现在了这款卖咖啡的APP中。这意味着，通过瑞幸咖啡，用户可以买到苹果耳机、机械键盘、电动牙刷、便当盒，甚至帆布包和洗手液。“进击电商”的操作让一向神秘的瑞幸更加莫测。然而，早在瑞幸咖啡成立之时，“无限场景”的品牌战略就已经给出...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003261201157aee8f23&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4550ce60b2f08e87d6ea858b70d28e62","relate_stocks":{"LK":"瑞幸咖啡","03086":"华夏纳指","09086":"华夏纳指-U","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202003261201157aee8f23&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2022710539","content_text":"“跨界大王”瑞幸又来讲新故事了。2020年3月23日，瑞幸上线“樱花购物节·数码周”，摆出了数十款数码产品，满999减100。“爆品直降”、“限时秒杀”这些电商专属的字眼，出现在了这款卖咖啡的APP中。这意味着，通过瑞幸咖啡，用户可以买到苹果耳机、机械键盘、电动牙刷、便当盒，甚至帆布包和洗手液。“进击电商”的操作让一向神秘的瑞幸更加莫测。然而，早在瑞幸咖啡成立之时，“无限场景”的品牌战略就已经给出了答案。回头来看，这也是瑞幸咖啡每每跨界都离不开的底层逻辑。说到底，瑞幸咖啡其实并不神秘。“比神州还大”的生意在中国资本市场上，瑞幸咖啡称得上是奇迹般的存在。2018年，在上市潮与破发潮齐飞的现实面前，中国VC们开始普遍意识到一级市场的估值已经被严重透支。当模式创新的红利被挖掘殆尽，不断烧钱来换取市场增长的商业模式也已不受青睐。正是在这一年，顶着高额补贴与疯狂扩张的标签，瑞幸咖啡横空出世。瑞幸咖啡的打法，在烧钱换增长不再流行的投资市场上备受争议。不论是运作模式、成长速度还是估值逻辑，从任何角度窥探，瑞幸咖啡都可以是“新物种”。整体上看，瑞幸咖啡的神秘不仅缘于其“蒙眼狂奔”背后的不动声色、神话般的上市速度，另一个原因或许还在于其上市之后仍以看似讲不完的“新故事”不断突破产品的定义。这一切，都早已深藏在钱治亚团队的基因之中。2017年11月8日，时任神州优车董事、副总经理的钱治亚按下了职业重启键。对于钱治亚的离职创业，神州优车董事长陆正耀给予了由衷理解与高度支持，并表示愿鼎力相助，“为她打call”。陆正耀认为，钱治亚创业新领域的商业前景并不小，“也许比神州还大”。在与陆正耀的饭局上，钱治亚说，要用互联网的思维和速度来做咖啡，“我们的目标就是要（在国内）打败星巴克。”这个目标并非一时兴起。在瑞幸咖啡创始团队刚开始产生做咖啡项目的创业想法时，有一次，陆正耀、钱治亚与瑞幸咖啡最早和最大的外部机构投资者——大钲资本董事长黎辉一起去北美出差，在机场的一个星巴克门店排队很久才买到了售价并不便宜的星巴克。作为一名“咖啡发烧友”，钱治亚认为，瑞幸咖啡的商业模式一定是要“挣效率的钱”，用新零售咖啡的形式与星巴克竞争。钱治亚想法与陆正耀不谋而合。对于瑞幸咖啡，后来的事实证明，不管是资金支持、资源倾斜还是战略把关，陆正耀都表现地十足慷慨。一方面，在瑞幸咖啡成立初期，陆正耀就将神州优车新大楼的空余区域租了一部分给瑞幸咖啡，并且后者的公关业务直接由前者的公关团队负责；另一方面，陆正耀还做了瑞幸的天使投资人，并借了一笔钱给钱治亚。特别是在资本与战略层面，瑞幸咖啡的“神州系”标签使其在成立的短短半年内便完成了估值为10亿美元的A轮融资，并由此一脚迈入了独角兽行列，成为了国内成长最快的独角兽。深谋远虑的“闪电战”同早期神州优车的打法一致，早在2016年初，陆正耀就带领瑞幸初始团队开始细化业务的商业模式、财务模型，并且推演各种可能突发情况下的防范策略，计算出业务不同发展阶段的资金需求和融资节奏。在陆正耀看来，瑞幸咖啡的商业模式，是通过交易模式的创新和技术的应用，根本上改变了原有咖啡行业的交易结构，从而带来了交易成本的显著下降。同时，通过和各领域顶级供应商的深度合作，为客户带来高品质、高性价比和高便利性的咖啡及其它产品。对于陆正耀来说，瑞幸咖啡是一场深谋远虑的“闪电战”，每一个脚印都要经过精密的计算。这是他作为福建商人的一贯打法。此后，瑞幸咖啡的崛起更是与神州优车如出一辙：巨额融资、大量补贴、疯狂扩张。“蒙眼狂奔”的质疑袭来。“烧了十来个亿。”2018年7月，瑞幸创始人兼CEO钱治亚在发布会上轻描淡写地说。这个轰动业内的数据，在她看来并不值得一提。毕竟，在上一场出行的战争中，她经手的支出，是几十个亿。“烧钱换流量的潜台词无非就是亏损，但是获取用户客群以及构建品牌认知度必须前期投入。就如同星巴克为了获取用户把店开在最好的位置，也是为了获取流量。”黎辉并不赞同对瑞幸咖啡“烧钱”与“砸流量”这两个说法。愉悦资本创始及执行合伙人刘二海也有相似观点。“什么叫烧钱呢？你是看短期盈利还是看长期发展？对于投资来说，长期不赚钱肯定是垃圾，但短期不赚钱就意味着长期不赚钱吗？”对于瑞幸咖啡一直以来备受争议的亏损问题，刘二海如是表示。质疑声此起彼伏，瑞幸却以最快速度直奔纳斯达克。2019年5月18日，也就是瑞幸咖啡成立18个月后，钱治亚携团队敲响纳斯达克的钟声。上市首日，瑞幸咖啡股价大涨19.88%，总市值达47.4亿美元，成为“史上最快IPO”。瑞幸咖啡联合创始人、高级副总裁郭谨一曾解释称，“我没想过这个生意能否慢下来。中国这个商业环境，以前是大鱼吃小鱼，现在是快鱼吃慢鱼，一个商业模式如果能跑通的话，很快就会有很多追随者”。此外，“中国企业又不缺钱，所以一个好的商业模式，你必须自己要跑很快。”郭谨一表示。大数据“孵化”的秘密2019年7月8日，北京凯迪拉克中心，一场声势浩大的媒体沟通会正在进行。在盛大的瞩目中，瑞幸“小鹿茶”被推向台前。与之惊艳亮相的，还有瑞幸聘请的全新品牌代言人刘昊然。“啵一口，小鹿茶”，伴随着为小鹿茶量身打造的新歌《给鹿小姐的一封信》音乐响起，瑞幸咖啡宣布正式进军茶饮市场，打造属于年轻人的“活力下午茶”。这是瑞幸咖啡上市后向市场上扔出第一颗深弹，距其“光速”上市不足两月。“进军新式茶饮是瑞幸咖啡的既定战略。”郭谨一的解释言简意赅。事实上，多数精明的投资人也丝毫不意外于这个本质上为品类扩张的游戏，并对此深以为然。对于大多数品牌而言，这似乎是商业变现的通路，被称为“神话“的瑞幸咖啡当然也不例外。“首先，以各种方式圈好人群基数，在这个基础上再去通过拓品类等其它方式提高复购率与产品客单价，保证用户的品牌忠诚度；最后一步，即优化成本结构，提升盈利能力。”众海投资副总裁张烨秋对投中网分析表示。换言之，瑞幸咖啡剧本更新的核心驱动力其实是始终要盈利的生意逻辑，起码财务模型看上去得是那个样子。不止一位投资人对投中网表示，新式茶饮相对而言毛利较高，同时也较容易帮助瑞幸打造出爆品以及差异化产品，从而在同样获客成本的基础上提高客单价，拉升消费频次。甚至很多人认为，仅是国内的咖啡市场，还远远撑不起瑞幸咖啡的估值。某种程度上，这两者的潜台词分别意味着瑞幸咖啡长时期的大额亏损与不算合理的估值。也正是这交织的两面，构成了“新物种”瑞幸咖啡带给人们的刻板印象与复杂情绪。然而，一直以来，尽管质疑与非议不断，瑞幸咖啡却从未给予客观意义上的正面解释，公关手段相当“佛系”。取而代之的是，瑞幸咖啡反而踩着自己的鼓点，继续一如既往的促销补贴，以及，保持在阶段时间里对外推出新战略。这使得本就让人捉摸不透的瑞幸咖啡更是蒙上了一层谜。2020年1月8日，瑞幸咖啡再次召开新品发布会，正式推出无人零售咖啡机“瑞即购”和无人售卖机“瑞划算”，进场无人零售。在场景铺设上，这两大无人零售终端机将覆盖办公室、校园、机场、车站、加油站、高速公路服务区和社区等各个场所，与现有的瑞幸咖啡门店网络相辅相成、互相补充。在钱治亚眼中，瑞幸咖啡的无人零售战略是瑞幸咖啡“无限场景”品牌的进一步延伸，将充分利用中国互联网新基础设施的优势，驱动零售行业再次升级。如果说瑞幸“小鹿茶”只是瑞幸咖啡野心释放的一小步，此次的无人零售计划却十足地暴露了瑞幸咖啡的算盘与棋局。与此同时，钱治亚也首次揭开了瑞幸咖啡的谜底，即以大数据为核心、以科技与品牌为基石的集合自有流量与自有产品闭环的智能零售平台，持续一手发展流量，一手发展产品。毫无疑问，这个答案里潜藏了太多可发展空间。单是品牌这一项定位，就可以复制出来无数个“瑞幸咖啡”。而且，无论是何种品类，瑞幸品牌的核心竞争力都在于大数据驱动供应链变革带来的成本优势。或许，大多数人并不愿意去真正剖析这一模式下的市场颠覆性，或者说，不愿相信甚至并不相信这门生意可持续的必然性。要知道，从瑞幸咖啡成立之日起，“无限场景”始终都是其主打的品牌战略与模式标签。这似乎不难理解。毕竟，一个不可忽略的一个事实是，尽管实现了惊人的数据增长，但“未设盈利时间表”的瑞幸咖啡至今都尚未盈利。根据瑞幸咖啡第三季度财报，根据瑞幸咖啡2019年第三季度（截至9月30日）的财报，2019年第三季度，瑞幸咖啡产品净收入14.93亿元，同比增长558%；净亏损为5.319亿元（约合7440万美元）；当季月均交易用户930万，同比增长398%；当季月均销售产品件数4420万件，同比增长470%；截止2019年9月30日，瑞幸咖啡门店总数同比增长210%，达3680家。不过，钱治亚显然已经看到了瑞幸咖啡盈利前景的可能。她认为，门店数量、月均交易用户数和月均销售商品数量快速增长的同时，瑞幸咖啡产品净收入的更高更快增长就已经说明，瑞幸咖啡的门店运营效率与盈利能力都在显著提高。“聪明的投资者们会看到瑞幸咖啡对整个消费市场的改变与其无限的发展潜力。”钱治亚强调。诚然，相较于盈利而言，投资人的生意其实更依赖于于企业的长期价值与高速增长。从这个角度来看，瑞幸咖啡的成长路径与未来市场毋庸置疑。当然，后来的事实也证明了资本市场对于瑞幸咖啡的信心。上市后，瑞幸股价一度高开高走，市值突破100亿美元，较上市首日的市值已经翻倍，并被纳入了MSCI指数。回过头看，瑞幸咖啡的神秘也许正是来自于其看似疯狂举措背后的并不复杂的商业逻辑，而往往，简单就是终极的复杂。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920881296,"gmtCreate":1584973395415,"gmtModify":1704356389157,"author":{"id":"3484795941606235","authorId":"3484795941606235","name":"財騋了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bc366bae39c2ff41c05f565b8857c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484795941606235","authorIdStr":"3484795941606235"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/BZmain\">$布油现金主连(BZmain)$</a>这点布油区别在哪里啊","text":"$布油现金主连(BZmain)$这点布油区别在哪里啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/930470469","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493247054408315","authorId":"3493247054408315","name":"出没在交易圈的情报员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f410ba1d5e642b32faa3d84b28820597","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3493247054408315","idStr":"3493247054408315"},"content":"石油交割的标准不一样，石油的质量不一样，规格不一样，成本不一样，其实和wti就是两个市场，经常存在套利空间","text":"石油交割的标准不一样，石油的质量不一样，规格不一样，成本不一样，其实和wti就是两个市场，经常存在套利空间","html":"石油交割的标准不一样，石油的质量不一样，规格不一样，成本不一样，其实和wti就是两个市场，经常存在套利空间"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":992562525,"gmtCreate":1565496946467,"gmtModify":1704712566634,"author":{"id":"3484795941606235","authorId":"3484795941606235","name":"財騋了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bc366bae39c2ff41c05f565b8857c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3484795941606235","idStr":"3484795941606235"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06055\">$中烟香港(06055)$</a>什么时候降低到100股一手就好了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06055\">$中烟香港(06055)$</a>什么时候降低到100股一手就好了","text":"$中烟香港(06055)$什么时候降低到100股一手就好了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/992562525","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":251378477097248,"gmtCreate":1702379782867,"gmtModify":1702379784384,"author":{"id":"3484795941606235","authorId":"3484795941606235","name":"財騋了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41bc366bae39c2ff41c05f565b8857c5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3484795941606235","idStr":"3484795941606235"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说错了会赔钱吗，还是拿着韭菜的钱去逍遥呢","listText":"说错了会赔钱吗，还是拿着韭菜的钱去逍遥呢","text":"说错了会赔钱吗，还是拿着韭菜的钱去逍遥呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251378477097248","repostId":"2390346757","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2390346757","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1702359926,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2390346757?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-12 13:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2390346757","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"提醒部分投资者“踏空风险”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。</p><p>作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。</p><p>李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><p>她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。</p><h2 id=\"id_3719791639\">市场“一致预期”是错的</h2><p>李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。</p><p>然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。</p><p>她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。</p><p>以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。</p><p>具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。</p><h2 id=\"id_1700695953\">小心“踏空风险”</h2><p>李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。</p><p>基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><h2 id=\"id_414897472\">大牛市和经济高增长未必同步</h2><p>很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。</p><p>李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。</p><p>她举了两个例子：</p><blockquote><p>其一，1940年代末，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。</p><p>其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。</p></blockquote><p>因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。</p><p>未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。</p><h2 id=\"id_2621002691\">如何防控风险 ？</h2><p>对于投资者规避风险的方法，李蓓有两点亲身经验。</p><p>其一，可以用期权工具。国内隐含波动15%以内，美国和中国香港市场都要超过30%，因此在A股可以用看涨期权进行表达，比如买入大盘股指数看涨期权。</p><p>其二，控制仓位。由于市场现在是左侧，需要防范净值大幅波动，等右侧机会来了再加仓。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-12 13:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c734b87f52be5f120b1c0c0583b68e11","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2390346757","content_text":"12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。小心“踏空风险”李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。大牛市和经济高增长未必同步很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。她举了两个例子：其一，1940年代末，美国标普500指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。如何防控风险 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