2e480c32的个人主页 - 老虎社区

2e480c32

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2021-11-12

$DraftKings Inc.(DKNG)$Go go go

2021-11-11

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Go go go

2021-11-10

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Buy the dip?

2021-11-10

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$Go go go

2021-11-09

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$Go hog go

2021-11-09

$Home Depot(HD)$Futrue

2021-11-08

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Still negative

2021-11-08

$Royal Caribbean Cruises(RCL)$Travel

2021-11-07

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$Not selling yet

2021-11-07

$Carnival(CCL)$Travel

2021-11-06

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$Still weak

2021-11-06

$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$To the moom

2021-11-05

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Like is coming

2021-11-05

$DraftKings Inc.(DKNG)$Result is coming

2021-11-04

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$Go go go

2021-11-04

$Zillow(Z)$Opportunities?

2021-11-03

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$Go go go

2021-11-02

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Recovering?

2021-11-02

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Recovering?

2021-11-01

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Waiting to recover

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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20:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154529120","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:. Alibaba Group'","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险都存在，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以目前相当低的估值买入的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：efetova/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是一家全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了接触高增长的中国消费市场的机会。与此同时，通过一系列合资企业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在云计算等其他行业。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。如果股价上涨至500美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这不会在短期内发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自IPO以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但也应该提到的是，股价在2020年下半年确实出现了小幅上涨，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服IPO计划被叫停后，2020年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价目前基本处于一年前的水平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在此期间继续取得强劲业绩。例如，上一季度，阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，在50%左右。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴-SW财报中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于用户年化增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴-SW平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴-SW平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW的EBITDA也同比增长了25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管管理层在评级关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但这一增长还是实现了。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，运营收入增长速度更快，经调整阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款后，同比增长48%。我认为，为了更清楚地了解阿里巴巴-SW平均季度的基本“核心”盈利能力，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技股，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软，并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是多重压缩的结果，原因是投资者情绪疲软以及对监管的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前220美元的价格计算，与目前分析师298美元的一致目标价相比，阿里巴巴的交易价格有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨35%。分析师的价格目标通常以1年的时间框架发布，因此，如果分析师界是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项伟大的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个目标价似乎一点也不离谱，因为298美元相当于今年预期净利润的29倍左右，或明年净利润的23倍。当我们谈论2022年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你着眼于12个月的窗口期，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从更长远的角度来看，那么500美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能触及的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为20美元，市盈率为25倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为25美元，市盈率为20倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为17美元，交易价格为净利润的29倍，那么股价将为（略低于）500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有很多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收益就越低。这反过来意味着可以更快达到价格目标，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们看一下阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为30-40倍，相对于目前的股价估值（约为今年盈利的20倍），显然存在巨大溢价。我认为目前的估值太低，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到30倍、35倍甚至40倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股价可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，该股确实有一定的估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设该股未来的净利润为23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大型股的估值相比也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊(AMZN)的交易价格是今年市盈率的59倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用23倍的市盈率将阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为21.70美元。什么时候会是这种情况？在下图中，我们看到了本年度、明年（2022财年）和2023财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是对的，阿里巴巴-SW到2023年每股收益将无法达到22美元，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到2023年间每股收益会增长100%以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约为27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约1.5年的时间才能将每股收益从15.20美元（2023年估计）增长到我们21.70美元的目标。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024年和2025年的增长率仅为20%，到2025年底每股收益也可能达到21.70美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到2025年底（即4.5年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能会达到500美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要很高的市盈率——我相信，阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为23倍，价格并不昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守地假设2023年每股收益预期过高10%，并且2023年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益将在2026年达到21.70美元，股价将在未来5.5年内升至500美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来5.5年内股价较当前水平上涨130%，相当于年化回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下这一部分，我想说<i>是的，阿里巴巴可以达到500美元</i>——但实际上需要几年时间。到2020年代中期，对我来说，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，尽管当然没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司增长强劲，利润来自多个长期宏观趋势，例如中国消费者支出的增长、电子商务市场份额的增长和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能非常有益的投资的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个强有力的选择。我属于后一类，因此按当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将大幅上涨。然而，根据您的风险承受能力以及您如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，您可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500? If You Got Time, Yes<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？如果你有时间，是的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 20:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.</li>  <li>I believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.</li>  <li>In the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567d19950e6c8789ce2192b4503f0fa5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by efetova/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一只战场股票，有些人看到了很多机会，而另一些人则看到了很多风险。</li><li>我相信机遇和风险都存在，但我认为前者大于后者。</li><li>从长远来看，阿里巴巴有机会为那些以目前相当低的估值买入的人带来强劲收益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：efetova/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW集团（BABA）是一家全球领先的高科技公司，持续产生有吸引力的增长，并为投资者提供了接触高增长的中国消费市场的机会。与此同时，通过一系列合资企业，阿里巴巴-SW还活跃在云计算等其他行业。过去几个月股价大幅下跌，但我相信长期潜力巨大。如果股价上涨至500美元，我不会感到惊讶，尽管这不会在短期内发生。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Since its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:</p><p><blockquote>自IPO以来，阿里巴巴-SW股价强劲上涨，但也应该提到的是，股价在2020年下半年确实出现了小幅上涨，此后大幅下跌：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8079eeb5384ea003fb3725d3cd1e877f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a&nbsp;revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.</p><p><blockquote>由于蚂蚁金服IPO计划被叫停后，2020年夏季的涨幅已被抹去，股价目前基本处于一年前的水平。不过，去年持平的股价表现有些令人惊讶，因为阿里巴巴-SW在此期间继续取得强劲业绩。例如，上一季度，阿里巴巴-SW的收入增长率为64%，而上一季度的收入增长也非常强劲，在50%左右。然而，这并不是阿里巴巴-SW财报中唯一的积极因素。仅在最近一个季度，该公司的用户数量就增加了3200万，相当于用户年化增长率约为20%。这对未来几个季度来说是个好兆头，因为阿里巴巴-SW平台上的更多用户应该会转化为更高的收入。最重要的是，强劲的用户增长表明，对阿里巴巴-SW平台提供的购物服务的需求仍在增长——市场根本没有饱和。阿里巴巴-SW的EBITDA也同比增长了25%，这也是一个有吸引力的增长速度，尽管管理层在评级关键增长领域的投资不断增加，但这一增长还是实现了。与此同时，由于一些运营杠杆，运营收入增长速度更快，经调整阿里巴巴-SW第一季度必须支付的罚款后，同比增长48%。我认为，为了更清楚地了解阿里巴巴-SW平均季度的基本“核心”盈利能力，放弃这一一次性项目是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and&nbsp;fears about regulation.</p><p><blockquote>因此，相对于大盘和其他科技股，阿里巴巴-SW集团的股价表现疲软，并不是经营业绩疲软的结果，而是多重压缩的结果，原因是投资者情绪疲软以及对监管的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> At its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.</p><p><blockquote>以目前220美元的价格计算，与目前分析师298美元的一致目标价相比，阿里巴巴的交易价格有相当大的折扣。如果阿里巴巴-SW达到这一目标，股价将上涨35%。分析师的价格目标通常以1年的时间框架发布，因此，如果分析师界是正确的，阿里巴巴-SW可能是一项伟大的投资。从估值的角度来看，这个目标价似乎一点也不离谱，因为298美元相当于今年预期净利润的29倍左右，或明年净利润的23倍。当我们谈论2022年夏季（即一年后）的价格目标时，后者可能更能说明问题。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can Alibaba Stock Hit $500?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股价能否触及500美元？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，这个问题的答案取决于你的时间框架。如果你着眼于12个月的窗口期，那么阿里巴巴-SW很可能无法达到500美元。300美元左右的价格目标似乎是可以实现的，尽管这当然也不能保证。然而，如果我们从更长远的角度来看，那么500美元似乎是阿里巴巴最终可能触及的股价。让我们看几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW在某个时候每股收益为20美元，市盈率为25倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为25美元，市盈率为20倍，那么股价将为500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>-如果阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益为17美元，交易价格为净利润的29倍，那么股价将为（略低于）500美元。</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:</p><p><blockquote>我们看到，有很多情况可能会让阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，其中一些情况比其他情况更有可能。当然，你的目标倍数越高，所需的收益就越低。这反过来意味着可以更快达到价格目标，因为所需的累计盈利增长较少。当我们看一下阿里巴巴-SW过去的估值时，我们会发现阿里巴巴的长期市盈率中位数如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2d42b7094deb394266d6410287c2e4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为30-40倍，相对于目前的股价估值（约为今年盈利的20倍），显然存在巨大溢价。我认为目前的估值太低，但另一方面，我预计阿里巴巴-SW未来几年的净利润不会达到30倍、35倍甚至40倍。由于阿里巴巴-SW的规模不断扩大，这使得其在未来几年保持出色的增长变得更加困难，与过去的估值相比，未来几年的股价可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> I still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为，从目前21倍左右的市盈率来看，该股确实有一定的估值扩张潜力，因此让我们假设该股未来的净利润为23倍。与历史估值相比，这仍然是一个巨大的折扣，与美国高科技大型股的估值相比也是一个巨大的折扣——例如，亚马逊(AMZN)的交易价格是今年市盈率的59倍。</blockquote></p><p> If we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:</p><p><blockquote>如果我们想使用23倍的市盈率将阿里巴巴的股价达到500美元，那么阿里巴巴-SW必须产生的每股收益为21.70美元。什么时候会是这种情况？在下图中，我们看到了本年度、明年（2022财年）和2023财年的每股收益预测：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf78e0b071eff9753afbdcd96f751c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.</p><p><blockquote>如果分析师是对的，阿里巴巴-SW到2023年每股收益将无法达到22美元，我认为这是现实的。我也不认为今年到2023年间每股收益会增长100%以上。从2023年开始，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益需要再增长43%才能达到21.70美元，这是我们500美元股价的“目标每股收益”。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c351b4b5eb3328191ccaa9a3b776c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Analysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>分析师目前预测长期每股收益增长约为27%，这意味着阿里巴巴-SW需要大约1.5年的时间才能将每股收益从15.20美元（2023年估计）增长到我们21.70美元的目标。即使我们假设这过于乐观，2024年和2025年的增长率仅为20%，到2025年底每股收益也可能达到21.70美元。因此，换句话说，如果阿里巴巴-SW的增长略低于分析师目前的预测，那么到2025年底（即4.5年后），阿里巴巴-SW的交易价格可能会达到500美元。请注意，这种情况根本不需要很高的市盈率——我相信，阿里巴巴-SW的净利润为23倍，价格并不昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> We can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以更加保守地假设2023年每股收益预期过高10%，并且2023年之后的几年每股收益每年仅增长17%（而分析师社区的长期预测为每年27%）。在这种情况下，阿里巴巴-SW的每股收益将在2026年达到21.70美元，股价将在未来5.5年内升至500美元。即使在这种情况下，阿里巴巴也根本不是一项糟糕的投资——未来5.5年内股价较当前水平上涨130%，相当于年化回报率为16%。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum this section up, I'd say<i>yes, BABA can hit $500</i>-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下这一部分，我想说<i>是的，阿里巴巴可以达到500美元</i>——但实际上需要几年时间。到2020年代中期，对我来说，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，尽管当然没有任何保证。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW股票现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，阿里巴巴-SW集团是一项强有力的投资。该公司增长强劲，利润来自多个长期宏观趋势，例如中国消费者支出的增长、电子商务市场份额的增长和云计算。然而，也有一些风险需要考虑：阿里巴巴-SW高度依赖中国，如果中国的经济增长故事结束，阿里巴巴-SW将受到很大伤害。最重要的是，阿里巴巴-SW可能会再次成为监管机构的目标，尽管我个人认为伤害中国增长最快的科技公司之一不符合中国的最佳利益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些担心这些风险的人来说，阿里巴巴-SW可能不是正确的选择，但对于那些认为阿里巴巴-SW对中国消费者来说可能非常有益的投资的人来说，阿里巴巴可能是多元化投资组合中的一个强有力的选择。我属于后一类，因此按当前估值将该股评级为买入，预计未来几年将大幅上涨。然而，根据您的风险承受能力以及您如何权衡投资中国公司的机会和威胁，您可能会做出不同的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432992-alibaba-stock-hit-500","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154529120","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is a battleground stock where some see a lot of opportunities, while others see many risks.\nI believe that there are both opportunities and risks, but would see the prior outweighing the latter.\nIn the long run, BABA has a chance of delivering strong gains for those that buy at the current, quite low, valuation.\n\nPhoto by efetova/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAlibaba Group (BABA) is a leading global high-tech name that continues to generate attractive growth and that offers investors exposure to the high-growth Chinese consumer market. At the same time, through a range of ventures, Alibaba is also active in additional industries, such as cloud computing. Shares have declined considerably over the last couple of months, but I believe that the long-term potential is significant. I would not be surprised to see shares rise towards $500, although that will not happen in the near term.\nBABA Stock Price\nSince its IPO, Alibaba has seen strong share price gains, but it should also be mentioned that shares did peek in H2 2020, and have declined considerably since then:\nData byYCharts\nShares are now basically where they were one year ago, as the gains during summer 2020 have been erased when Ant Financial's IPO plans were stopped. The flat share price performance over the last year is somewhat surprising, though, as Alibaba continued to generate strong results in that time frame. During the last quarter, for example, Alibaba showcased a revenue growth rate of 64%, while revenue growth during the previous quarter was also very strong, at around 50%. This is not the only positive in Alibaba's earnings releases, however. The company also managed to grow its user count by 32 million during the most recent quarter alone, which equates to an annualized user growth rate of around 20%. This bodes well for future quarters, as more users on Alibaba's platform should translate into higher revenues. On top of that, the strong user growth shows that there is still growing demand for the shopping services that Alibaba's platforms offer -- the market is not saturated at all. Alibaba also managed to grow its EBITDA by 25% year over year, which is an attractive growth pace as well, and which was achieved despite growing investments in what management calls key growth areas. Income from operations, meanwhile, grew at an even faster pace, thanks to some operating leverage, rising by 48% year over year when adjusted for the fine that Alibaba had to pay during Q1. It makes, I believe, sense to back out this one-time item to get a clearer picture about Alibaba's underlying, \"core\" profitability during an average quarter.\nAlibaba Group's weak share price performance, relative to the broad market and other tech names, is thus not the result of weak operating performance, but rather a result of multiple compression, driven by weak investor sentiment due to China exposure and fears about regulation.\nAt its current price of $220, BABA trades at a quite large discount compared to the current consensus analyst price target of $298. If Alibaba were to hit that, shares would gain 35%. Analyst price targets are usually issued with a 1-year time frame, thus, if the analyst community is correct, Alibaba could be a great investment. From a valuation standpoint, this price target doesn't seem outrageous at all, as $298 would equate to around 29x this year's expected net profits, or 23x next year's net earnings. The latter is likely the more telling one when we talk about a price target for summer 2022, i.e. 1 year from now.\nCan Alibaba Stock Hit $500?\nThe answer to that question, I think, depends on your time frame. If you are looking at a 12-month window, then Alibaba will most likely not be able to hit $500. The ~$300 price target seems achievable, although that is, of course, also not guaranteed. If, however, we take a longer-term view, then $500 seems like a share price that BABA could hit eventually. Let's look at a couple of examples.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $20 at some point and traded at an earnings multiple of 25, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $25 and traded at a 20x earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $500.\n- If Alibaba were to generate earnings per share of $17 and traded at 29x its net profits, then shares would trade at (marginally below) $500.\nWe see that there are many scenarios that could get us to a $500 share price for BABA, some of them more likely than others. Of course, the higher your target multiple, the lower the earnings that would be required. This, in turn, means that the price target can be hit sooner, as less cumulative earnings growth would be required. When we take a look at how Alibaba was valued in the past, we see that the longer-term median earnings multiples for BABA look like this:\nData byYCharts\nAt 30-40x net earnings, Alibaba was clearly trading at a massive premium relative to how shares are valued today (around 20x this year's earnings). I think that the current valuation is too low, but on the other hand, I do not expect Alibaba to trade at 30, 35, or even 40x net profits in coming years. Due to the growing scale of Alibaba, which makes it a little harder to maintain its excellent growth in coming years, shares will likely trade at a lower valuation in coming years, compared to how they were valued in the past.\nI still think that shares do have some valuation expansion potential from the current earnings multiple of around 21, thus let's assume that shares trade at 23x net profits in the future. This would still represent a massive discount versus the historic valuation, and also a substantial discount compared to how US-based high-tech mega-caps are valued -- Amazon (AMZN), for example, trades at 59x this year's earnings.\nIf we want to get to a $500 share price for BABA using a 23x earnings multiple, then we get to earnings per share of $21.70 that Alibaba must generate. When could this be the case? In the following chart, we see EPS estimates for the current year, next year (CY 2022), and CY 2023:\nData byYCharts\nIf analysts are right, Alibaba will not get to earn $22 a share through 2023, and I think that is realistic. I do not see earnings per share rising by 100%+ between this year and 2023, either. From 2023, it would take another 43% increase in Alibaba's earnings per share to get to $21.70, which is our \"target EPS\" for a $500 share price.\nData byYCharts\nAnalysts are currently forecasting long-term EPS growth of around 27%, which would mean it would take Alibaba about 1.5 years to grow its EPS from $15.20 (2023 estimate) to our target of $21.70. Even if we assume that this is too optimistic and that growth will be just 20% in 2024 and 2025, EPS of $21.70 could be hit by the end of 2025. So, in other words, if Alibaba grows a little less than what analysts are forecasting right now, Alibaba could trade at $500 by the end of 2025 -- or 4.5 years from now. Note that this scenario does not require a high earnings multiple at all -- at 23x net profits, Alibaba wouldn't be expensive, I believe.\nWe can get even more conservative and assume that the 2023 EPS estimate is 10% too high and that EPS will grow by just 17% a year in the years beyond 2023 (versus a long-term forecast of 27% a year by the analyst community). In that case, Alibaba would hit $21.70 in earnings per share in 2026, and shares would rise to $500 over the next 5.5 years. Even in this scenario, BABA wouldn't be a bad investment at all -- a 130% share price increase from the current level over the next 5.5 years would equate to annualized returns of 16%.\nSo, to sum this section up, I'd sayyes, BABA can hit $500-- but it will realistically take a couple of years. By the mid-2020s, this seems like a very achievable goal to me, although there are, of course, no guarantees.\nIs Alibaba Stock A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAlibaba Group is, I believe, a strong investment. The company generates strong growth, profits from multiple long-term macro trends, such as growing consumer spending in China, growing e-commerce market share, and cloud computing. There are, however, risks to consider: Alibaba is highly China-dependent, and in case the economic growth story in China ends, Alibaba would be hurt a lot. On top of that, Alibaba could be targeted again by regulators, although I personally think that it is not in China's best interest to hurt one of its highest-growth tech companies.\nFor those that worry about these risks, Alibaba may not be the right choice, but for those that see Alibaba as a potentially very rewarding play on Chinese consumers, BABA could be a strong pick in a diversified portfolio. I belong to the latter group and thus rate the stock a buy at current valuations, expecting significant upside over the coming years. Depending on your risk tolerance and how you weigh the opportunities and threats of investing in Chinese companies, you may decide differently, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191199075,"gmtCreate":1620862103597,"gmtModify":1631891593259,"author":{"id":"3571813255314396","authorId":"3571813255314396","name":"2e480c32","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571813255314396","idStr":"3571813255314396"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191199075","repostId":"2135584610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":379347558,"gmtCreate":1618699430674,"gmtModify":1631891593261,"author":{"id":"3571813255314396","authorId":"3571813255314396","name":"2e480c32","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571813255314396","idStr":"3571813255314396"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379347558","repostId":"1175692875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175692875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618582708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175692875?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-16 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175692875","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire","content":"<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$544 Billion In Options Expire Today: Here's What Will Move<blockquote>5440亿美元期权今天到期：以下是将发生的变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-16 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这不是四（甚至三）巫术日，但今天的大量每周期权将到期，其中可能一文不值，其他期权将为基础价格提供支持“引脚”。这就是为什么，尽管我们正在享受一个美丽的春季周，高盛指出，单一股票期权交易活动相对于历史水平有所上升。也就是说，4月份每日期权交易量增长了70%，高于3月30日年初至今24亿美元的低点。</blockquote></p><p><b>In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.</b>As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.</p><p><blockquote><b>总体而言，单个股票中有5440亿美元的期权将于今天到期，其中包括3050亿美元的评级。</b>因此，今天的到期对于平值（ATM）期权持有大量未平仓合约的股票可能很重要，因为做市商对其异常大的期权投资组合进行delta对冲将会很活跃。这种流动可能会抑制某些股票的波动，同时加剧其他股票的股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>How to trade this?</p><p><blockquote>这个怎么交易？</blockquote></p><p>As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations where<b>a large amount of open interest is set to expire.</b>In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛的维沙尔·维韦克（Vishal Vivek）所写，在重大到期时，期权交易者会跟踪以下情况：<b>大量未平仓合约即将到期。</b>在平价执行（执行价格等于或非常接近当前股价）中存在大量到期未平仓合约的情况下，delta对冲活动可能会影响标的股票当天的交易。如果做市商或其他对其头寸进行delta对冲的期权交易者是净多头ATM期权，则与到期相关的流量可能会产生抑制股价走势的效果，导致股价以大量未平仓合约在行权附近结算。这种情况通常被称为“pin”，对于试图进入/退出股票头寸的大型投资者来说是理想的情况。或者，如果delta对冲者是ATM期权的净空头（具有“负伽马”头寸），他们的对冲活动可能会加剧股价波动。</blockquote></p><p>What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着与到期相关的交易可能会导致具有大量ATM未平仓合约的股票的交易活动大幅回升。</blockquote></p><p>So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"<i>expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>因此，为了帮助寻求日内交易机会的交易者，这里有一个表格，列出了今天到期的ATM未平仓合约较大的可能焦点股票，并与标的股票的日均交易量进行了比较。正如高盛所说，“<i>如果未平仓合约占股票交易量的很大一部分，那么与到期相关的活动可能会产生更大的影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dac61cb87c2f2700d8a0e8e64324f81\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"</p><p><blockquote>最后，值得一提的是，今天早上我们在SpotGamma的朋友写道，这是一个相当奇怪的运营支出周期，“持续的几乎机械的出价推动市场走高。我们以前从未见过看涨期权墙“突破”过很多次，但我们在之前的笔记中提到过其他异常现象，例如净看跌期权销售。我们对此有一些理论，我们将在一篇更长的文章中发布。”</blockquote></p><p>According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).<b>These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX&nbsp; (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.</b></p><p><blockquote>根据SG的说法，由于隐含波动率现在已经压缩（即VIX处于新低），现在“长期”波动的潜力更大。回想一下最近市场的任何剧烈下跌都是如何被如此迅速地买入的（见下图）。<b>这些大幅走低与创纪录的VIX飙升同时发生，但随着VIX（即隐含波动率）的逆转，反射性的snap回调将带来同等力度的市场复苏。</b></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae7a60d873792b825bdda669cafa0ed3\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:</p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma的另一个奇怪观察：</blockquote></p><p>When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. <b>We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.</b>With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.&nbsp; Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.&nbsp; Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.</p><p><blockquote>当隐含波动率非常高时，它对市场走势非常敏感，也表明市场预计未来会有更大的波动。一旦市场暂停或抓住支撑位，隐含波动率就会迅速反转走低。<b>我们经常想到这样一个类比，如果鲨鱼停止游泳，它就会下沉（部分正确！）.如果市场停止下跌，那么隐含波动率就会下降。</b>正如我们经常谈论的那样，较低的隐含波动率（即较低的VIX）表明做市商必须回购空头对冲，从而推动反弹。SG的结论是：目前较低的隐含波动率水平给了市场更多的下行火力。从较低的隐含波动率开始会“减缓”反应性的“snap回”购买机制。此外，当IV较低时，伽马较高，因此伽马翻转可能有更多的果汁。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/544-billion-options-expire-today-heres-what-will-move?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175692875","content_text":"While it's not quad (or even triple) witching day, today's a whole lot of weekly options will expire, may of which will be worthless, and others will be providing a supporting \"pin\" to underlying prices. It's why, even though we are enjoying a beautiful spring week, Goldman notes that single stock options trading activity is elevated relative to historical levels. To wit, daily options volumes are up 70% in April, up from YTD lows of $2.4bn on 30-Mar.In total, across single stocks, $544BN of options are set to expiry today, including $305BN calls.As such, today’s expiry could be important for stocks with large open interest in at-the-money(ATM) options, as market makers delta-hedging their unusually large options portfolios will be active. This flow is likely to dampen volatility in some names while exacerbating stock price moves in others.How to trade this?As Goldman's Vishal Vivek writes, at major expirations, options traders track situations wherea large amount of open interest is set to expire.In situations where there is a significant amount of expiring open interest in at-the-money strikes (strike prices at or very near the current stockprice), delta-hedging activity can impact the underlying stock’s trading that day. If market makers or other options traders who delta-hedge their positions are net long ATM options, expiration-related flow could have the effect of dampening stock price movements, causing the stock price to settle near the strike with large open interest. This situation is often referred to as a “pin” and can be an ideal situation fora large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position. Alternatively, if delta-hedgers are net short ATM options (have a “negative gamma” position), their hedging activity could exacerbate stock price moves.What that means it expiration-related trades may cause trading activity to aggressively pick up for stocks with a significant amount of ATM open interest.So to help traders looking to hop on for daytrading opportunities, here is a table identifying possible focus stocks with large ATM open interest expiring today, which is compared to the average daily volume of the underlying stocks. As Goldman puts it, \"expiration-related activity is likely to have more of an impact if the open interest represents a significant percentage of the stock’s volume.\"Finally, for what it's worth, this morning our friends at SpotGamma write that this has been a rather strange OPEX cycle, \"with a consistent almost mechanical bid pushing markets higher. We’ve not seen the Call Wall “breached” this many times before, but there are other aberrations that we’ve mentioned in previous notes – like net put sales. We’ve got some theories on this we are posting in a longer form piece.\"According to SG, because implied volatility has now compressed (ie VIX at new lows) there is now more potential for “long term” volatility. Recall how as of late any sharp, violent drop in markets was bought so quickly (see chart below).These bursts lower coincided with record VIX spikes, but a reflective snap-back bid would bring a market recovery of equal force as the VIX  (i.e. implied volatility) reversed.And one other curious observation from SpotGamma:When implied volatility is very high, its very sensitive to market moves and also signaling that markets are expecting more large moves ahead. As soon as markets would pause or catch a support level, that implied volatility would quickly reverse lower. We often think of this analogy that if a shark stops swimming, it sinks ( partially true!). If the market stops dropping then Implied volatility sinks.With this, as we often talk about, lower implied volatility (ie lower VIX) signals market makers have to buy back short hedges which fuels rallies. SG's conclusion: this current level of lower implied volatility now gives the market more downside firepower.  Starting with a lower implied volatility “slows down” that responsive “snap-back” buying mechanism.  Additionally, gamma is higher when IV is lower so gamma flips may have more juice.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":366604493,"gmtCreate":1614468013212,"gmtModify":1703477627783,"author":{"id":"3571813255314396","authorId":"3571813255314396","name":"2e480c32","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571813255314396","idStr":"3571813255314396"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366604493","repostId":"1117820997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":858484000,"gmtCreate":1635116265449,"gmtModify":1635116265922,"author":{"id":"3571813255314396","authorId":"3571813255314396","name":"2e480c32","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571813255314396","idStr":"3571813255314396"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>Underwater","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>Underwater","text":"$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Underwater","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c923f273d74c3c9b3dc86bd2fb49bb34","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858484000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828871138,"gmtCreate":1633906717872,"gmtModify":1633906717988,"author":{"id":"3571813255314396","authorId":"3571813255314396","name":"2e480c32","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571813255314396","idStr":"3571813255314396"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>To the moon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$</a>To the moon","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$To the moon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a51f8df9de52a0200f7082431a319fc8","width":"1125","height":"2711"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828871138","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881106966,"gmtCreate":1631313709455,"gmtModify":1631885510008,"author":{"id":"3571813255314396","authorId":"3571813255314396","name":"2e480c32","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571813255314396","idStr":"3571813255314396"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>Go go go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>Go go go","text":"$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Go go go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a863aa833fe327ed1fe7e8e6610cc0a4","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881106966","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}