凯利公式的个人主页 - 老虎社区

凯利公式

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2020-12-14

$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$未来10倍票

2020-07-21

$微美全息(WIMI)$$云米科技(VIOT)$ 云米大力发展有AR全景的产品

2020-08-27

$特斯拉(TSLA)$车卖那么多，充电吗 blink

2020-08-27

$蔚来(NIO)$$Blink Charging(BLNK)$ 新能源车卖那么多，路上充电怎么办？ blink

2020-07-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$给老虎证券一点点建议：企业形象上要提升（不要给客户一种私企p2p的感觉）接线员的素质和业务能力要提升希望老虎能做大做强成为一流投行

2020-07-27

查落斯被马斯克逼疯了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-07-21

$云米科技(VIOT)$云米大力发展有AR全景的产品

2020-07-02

$Trinity Biotech plc(TRIB)$ 美国加拿大诊断检测第一☝️

2020-06-23

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 三打白骨精读后感哈哈😄

2020-06-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$欢迎bilnk充电桩来中国发展

2020-06-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$那么多纯电车，让美国的Blink来造充电桩

2020-06-08

$Trinity Biotech plc(TRIB)$疫苗疫苗

2020-06-08

$Trinity Biotech plc(TRIB)$你能研发疫苗吗？

2020-06-18

$好孩子国际(01086)$花车设计真漂亮

2020-06-16

$特斯拉(TSLA)$blink

2020-06-10

$Blink Charging(BLNK)$那么多的纯电车，充电器将是风口

2020-08-27

$Blink Charging(BLNK)$ 新能源车卖那么多，路上充电怎么办？ blink

2020-08-18

$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$突破12000

2020-06-23

$跟谁学(GSX)$三打白骨精的作文是不是跟谁学教的哈哈哈

2020-06-15

$跟谁学(GSX)$看你直线向下的表演开始

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blink","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f6005f8958d94eb4bc213581460e93","width":"1920","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738450c90295d2e8256f538d9a2592b7","width":"1920","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622732635ed0e7d758ab86168ebdeb10","width":"600","height":"400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973675065","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970191258,"gmtCreate":1597680916074,"gmtModify":1704216326385,"author":{"id":"3553593254840309","authorId":"3553593254840309","name":"凯利公式","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553593254840309","authorIdStr":"3553593254840309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$</a>突破12000","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$</a>突破12000","text":"$Riot Blockchain, Inc.(RIOT)$突破12000","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc4d722bb76bcdf6b11d7ba6b2d74948","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970191258","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946280593,"gmtCreate":1595863580312,"gmtModify":1704210103391,"author":{"id":"3553593254840309","authorId":"3553593254840309","name":"凯利公式","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553593254840309","authorIdStr":"3553593254840309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"查落斯 被马斯克逼疯了","listText":"查落斯 被马斯克逼疯了","text":"查落斯 被马斯克逼疯了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946280593","repostId":"1190723442","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190723442","pubTimestamp":1595853448,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190723442?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-27 20:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街“空头猎人”：美股正迎来史上最大做空机遇","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190723442","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"近日，大空头查诺斯接受了伦敦《金融时报》的远程专访，分享了他对卖空交易的思考，回顾了自己的空头生涯，回答了一些公众感兴趣的问题，并明确预言：美股市场正在迎来“史上最重大的做空机遇”——因为当前正是“欺","content":"<p><i>近日，大空头查诺斯接受了伦敦《金融时报》的远程专访，分享了他对卖空交易的思考，回顾了自己的空头生涯，回答了一些公众感兴趣的问题，并明确预言：美股市场正在迎来“史上最重大的做空机遇”——因为当前正是“欺诈的黄金时代”。</i></p>\n<p>被称为“华尔街的空头猎人”、“灾难资本家”，以及“做空界的小皇帝詹姆斯”等等的大空头查诺斯（Jim Chanos）显然是任何人都不敢忽略的一个角色。近二十年前，他准确预见到了美国能源巨头安然将会崩塌，抓住机会大赚了一笔。</p>\n<p>只不过，交易场上不可能存在真正的常胜将军，比如过去五年当中，查诺斯一直在做空特斯拉，但后者现在已经超过丰田，成为全球市值最大的车企，也让他损失惨重。当然，查诺斯与特斯拉的故事并没有到此结束，这里暂且按下不表。</p>\n<p>在批评家眼中，卖空行为就是现代资本主义的一种祸害。像巴菲特（Warren Buffett）这样的价值型投资者总是寻找被市场低估的股票，但查诺斯和其他空头们则相反，寻找的对象是被高估者。发现目标之后，他们就会借来股票并卖掉，等待未来股价下跌后再买回来偿还。简而言之，“他们就是在其他人赔钱时赚钱的”——这是查诺斯自己的总结，而这样的做法显然会让一些人感到不适。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcdc9c24293cceedbcba8e60893fb10d\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"235\"></p>\n<p>查诺斯现在心情不错。一周前，他最大的做空对象之一德国支付公司Wirecard被迫承认自己的19亿欧元现金可能“并不存在”后申请了破产保护。早些时候，《金融时报》曾经对该公司的会计实践进行了长达五年的调查和报道。一位业内人士披露，查诺斯的基金靠着做空这家公司赚了大约1亿美元。被问及这桩交易后，查诺斯大笑起来：“这其实是苦乐参半的生意，因为做空经常需要忍受若干周，乃至若干个月的痛苦，而你真正欢乐的时光却只有几天乃至几个小时。”</p>\n<p>即便是批评者们，大多数也不能不承认，在正常的市场环境当中，空头也是有积极意义的，可以帮助矫正弊病。不过，还是有一派最尖锐的意见——多数都是来自做空对象——强调，空头们是在串通起来，就一家公司的会计或者财务状况播撒恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的种子，哪怕对象其实没有问题，这种对市场心理的操控最终也会产生滚雪球的效果，进而在行情层面做到自我实现。</p>\n<p>事实也确实有这样的意思，比如查诺斯这种量级的大空头，只需要披露自己在做空哪家企业，就往往能够对后者的股价产生立竿见影的影响。</p>\n<p>查诺斯毫不避讳地承认，自己确实和其他空头卖家联系频繁。比如，他做空瑞幸咖啡，就是听了浑水的布洛克（Carson Block）的主意。不过，他明确表示，所谓空头们串谋云云，则完全是无稽之谈了：“如果我们真的串谋，那肯定是要做什么比卖空赚钱多得多的大事情了。”</p>\n<p>前几年，加拿大保险公司Fairfax Financial曾经将一系列对冲基金告上了法庭。被告当中有查诺斯的基金，也有勒布（Dan Loeb）和科恩（Steve Cohen）等其他大佬的基金，原告称他们在做空阴谋中蓄意打压自己的股价。“这只是他们的一种感觉，而不是事实。”查诺斯评论道，“2018年，诉讼就被法庭因超出自己管辖权范围而驳回了，而在这个过程当中，该公司重新申报了过去的盈利数字。”</p>\n<p>查诺斯的对冲基金公司叫做Kynikos Associates，其名字是来自于希腊语的“愤世嫉俗”一词，而他强大的地方就在于能够发现正在酝酿中的企业灾难。这家纽约公司拥有20个员工，管理着15亿美元资产。查诺斯还在耶鲁大学兼职，教授金融欺诈史。他的教学大纲一直上溯到17世纪，而当今在他看来，“我们正身处欺诈的黄金时代”。</p>\n<p>查诺斯对当前环境的评价是，“一片名副其实的造假者的沃土，很长时间以来，企业界那些做了坏事的家伙总是能够逍遥法外”。他解释道，这种局面是多方面原因造成的：央行干预人为造就的十年大牛市；完全可以和互联网泡沫晚期相提并论的散户参与度；特朗普大搞“后真相政治，这个系统当中，我的事实就是你的假消息”；硅谷“装假装到成功”的文化……这一切和投资者生怕错过机会的心理纠缠在一起，再加上监管的失职，局面便彻底不可收拾了。</p>\n<p>查诺斯讽刺地说，金融监管和执法机构都是“考古学家——他们只有在那些企业已经完蛋之后才会告诉你问题出在哪里”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcbff5dbe6719d87505dee7f77666aff\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"234\"></p>\n<p>查诺斯的任务就是去努力了解一家公司的商业模式，然后判断其财报是否给予了准确的反映。在他的做空生涯当中，有些主题总是会不时重复出现：技术过时、消费者一时狂热、产品单一、成长全靠收购，以及在会计实践中搞鬼等。查诺斯尤其注意所谓“合法欺诈”——企业的行为完全符合会计法规和监管要求，但依然可以看出明确的“欺骗意图”。安然丑闻相当程度上正是如此——查诺斯发现，该公司使用激进的做法来计算前期利润，而将债务隐藏到子公司当中。</p>\n<p>在Wirecard这幕大戏当中，查诺斯算不上先知先觉。他是去年开始建仓做空这家德国支付公司的，在秋季，《金融时报》挖出了该公司内部文件，显示他们不当夸大迪拜和都柏林部门利润，递交给会计师行安永的客户名单系假造的之后，查诺斯又增加了头寸。</p>\n<p>Wirecard最后的崩溃也颇有戏剧性色彩。不过，查诺斯要强调的是，现在骗子们都在走钢丝。很多时候，他们就是“毫不避讳地使用各种自己设计的指标”，靠这些指标“瞒天过海”。</p>\n<p>现在，企业的确经常利用各种创造性的指标来美化自己的账目，比如共享办公初创公司WeWork现在已经声名狼藉的所谓“社区调整后”EBITDA，还有，疫情期间，许多企业还使用了所谓EBITDAC，在寻常的利息、税项、折旧、摊销后面还加上了代表疫情的C——在这个新指标当中，他们就可以加入其实根本不存在的利润，他们宣称这种调整是因为，如果没有疫情发生，这些钱本是可以赚到的。</p>\n<p>查诺斯说，企业创造这些指标其实“只是为了让自己和现实世界越来越远”，而监管机构本应该对这些指标的使用加强管理力度的。</p>\n<p>查诺斯出生在一个希腊和爱尔兰移民组成的家庭中，他们家那时在密尔沃基经营着一家连锁干洗店。或许是因为这种商业背景，查诺斯很小就对股市产生了兴趣。从耶鲁大学毕业后，他先是为芝加哥一家投资银行工作，后来又加入了券商公司Gilford Securities，在那里开始写个股研究报告。研究生涯的第一个案例，查诺斯就一炮打响：“我开始研究和写报告的第一家重要企业，后来爆出了巨大的会计欺诈丑闻。”</p>\n<p>Baldwin-United最初是一家钢琴行，后来发展为金融超级市场。查诺斯在研究报告当中指出，该公司的账目存在彼此矛盾、难以自圆其说之处，他建议投资者卖出这只股票。在转年的1983年，这家公司正式宣告破产，创下了当时的最大企业破产案纪录。</p>\n<p>Baldwin崩盘后， 包括大名鼎鼎的索罗斯（George Soros）和斯坦哈特（Michael Steinhardt）在内，Gilford的不少对冲基金客户都对研究报告后面的查诺斯产生了兴趣——“这家伙还有什么其他不看好的股票？”</p>\n<p>之后很快，查诺斯就转投到德意志银行的纽约分部。不过，他在这里并没有做很久。1985年9月，《华尔街日报》在头版刊登了他们对一空头网络的所谓“激进方法”的调查报道，指称这个网络蓄意打压了诸多美国股票。报道将查诺斯描述成了居于空头网络中心的坏家伙。“人们觉得我头上长着双角，满身布满大疮。”于是，查诺斯和他的上级主管都被德银炒了鱿鱼，“需要补充的是，报道当中提到的十家‘受害者’公司，后来有九家的下场都是破产，或者被起诉欺诈。”</p>\n<p>从很早的时候开始，查诺斯就一直深信，做空其实只是“做空的镜像”而已。不过近期，他的想法也开始有所改变，“因为在市场运转当中，其实有很大的行为财务学成分”。在华尔街，“看涨理由无所不在”，比如管理层的乐观预期、成为并购目标的传言，以及盈利预期上调等等。</p>\n<p>“在这种环境当中，要站出来大声说，‘这些是我掌握的事实，而我根据这些事实得出的结论就是，这里存在一个做空的机会’，这确实需要一种非常独特的性格——我应该就具有这样的性格。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/306ed5d5c07281340a362095e6058cb4\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"277\"></p>\n<p>做空的感觉不是谁都能够消受得起的。1985年，查诺斯创建了Kynikos，不到一年，在当时的“喧嚣牛市”之下，查诺斯的生意伙伴就再也无法忍受空头交易了，想要将自己的股份卖给查诺斯。“我当场就付了钱，那可以算得上是我最成功的一笔交易。”查诺斯忍不住笑了起来。</p>\n<p>查诺斯拥有对冲基金行业史上最佳的表现记录之一。他的多空头股票策略基金Kynikos Capital Partners过去三十五年间，年均回报率高达22%，要两倍于标普500指数同期的涨幅。这段时间内，纯粹做空美股的Ursus（名字来自拉丁语“熊”）策略，不过年均损失2%。</p>\n<p>过去十年左右时间当中，由于各国央行刺激政策的作用，数以亿计的美元涌入金融市场，推高了几乎所有资产的价格，而这段时间自然也成为了空头卖家的苦日子。对于这段时间的交易，查诺斯的总结是：“非常谨慎，也非常痛苦。”</p>\n<p>融资困难就是最典型的挑战之一。2008年，只做空头的Ursus基金扣除费用，净回报高达44%，Kynikos旗下的总资产也达到了70亿美元的公司史上峰值，但那之后，这数字就开始不断下滑，到今天只剩下了大约15亿美元。今年，查诺斯将自己公司的一小部分股权出售给了投资公司Conlon &amp; Co和前芝加哥市长戴利（Richard M Daley）的家族办公室。</p>\n<p>量化宽松政策已经绵延多年，而近期为减轻疫情造成的经济痛楚，更有愈演愈烈之势，查诺斯强调，这种做法会让拥有金融资产的人得到更大好处，“让贫富不均进一步恶化”。在他看来，联储其实应该寻求削减目前依然高达15%到18%的信用卡利率，而且他相信，各国央行这种“让富者愈富，而其他大多数人一无所获”的政策迟早会引发强烈的政治反弹，反噬自身。</p>\n<p>查诺斯做空了不少零工经济企业，比如共享出行公司优步和来福车，以及送餐公司Grubhub和Just Eat Takeaway，这些下注背后，政治风险是一个很重要的原因。查诺斯解释说，做空不单单是因为这些公司在亏钱，而是因为他相信，政界对低薪劳动者的境遇将会越来越重视，对这些公司的运营模式构成潜在威胁。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60fdb47be9345a2dc41ae370a42b2745\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"235\"></p>\n<p>查诺斯参加了民主党总统候选人的金融顾问委员会，而拜登目前正在支持加州一项强化零工经济劳动者权益保护的立法努力。如果拜登胜选，新政府很可能会加税。“相对于针对劳动所得增税，我觉得针对资本增税更加公平。我知道，这样的说法不讨华尔街喜欢，但是我一直就是这样认为的。”</p>\n<p>与查诺斯交谈，话题很难绕开特斯拉，毕竟五年前他开始做空该公司到现在，后者的股价已经上涨了大约六倍。查诺斯现在怎么想？“我觉得，这场牛市的希望和梦想已经被全部寄托到了马斯克（Elon Musk）身上。”他解释说，自己最初之所以决定要做空特斯拉，是因为该公司无法实现盈利，高度依赖债务，而且还面临着日益增强的竞争压力。</p>\n<p>在他看来，特斯拉“通过激进的会计手段美化了自己的业绩”。他还说特斯拉代表了一种“骗子文化”，因为他们大力鼓吹和向消费者推销的自动驾驶技术其实“并不存在”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fc77a9f0648cd440b39541eb076824d\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"277\"></p>\n<p>那么，查诺斯这样喜欢做空，到底是为了赚钱，还是为了做自己认为正确的事情？</p>\n<p>“除非他们不让我做了，不然的话，我希望一直从事现在的事业。”查诺斯回忆，当Wirecard申请破产的消息传来，整家Kynikos公司都沸腾了，好像“有一道电流穿过”。“这种感觉会鼓舞你不断前行。”查诺斯强调，他相信“这个市场将涌现出史上最重大的做空机遇”。</p>\n<p>“麻烦就要来了，我不能预测到准确时间，但我知道它就要来了。”</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街“空头猎人”：美股正迎来史上最大做空机遇\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-27 20:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ju-oRF2zWjVa7r3txdEKFw><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，大空头查诺斯接受了伦敦《金融时报》的远程专访，分享了他对卖空交易的思考，回顾了自己的空头生涯，回答了一些公众感兴趣的问题，并明确预言：美股市场正在迎来“史上最重大的做空机遇”——因为当前正是“欺诈的黄金时代”。\n被称为“华尔街的空头猎人”、“灾难资本家”，以及“做空界的小皇帝詹姆斯”等等的大空头查诺斯（Jim Chanos）显然是任何人都不敢忽略的一个角色。近二十年前，他准确预见到了美国能源...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ju-oRF2zWjVa7r3txdEKFw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0eb563a646641b79164f038007b26308","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ju-oRF2zWjVa7r3txdEKFw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190723442","content_text":"近日，大空头查诺斯接受了伦敦《金融时报》的远程专访，分享了他对卖空交易的思考，回顾了自己的空头生涯，回答了一些公众感兴趣的问题，并明确预言：美股市场正在迎来“史上最重大的做空机遇”——因为当前正是“欺诈的黄金时代”。\n被称为“华尔街的空头猎人”、“灾难资本家”，以及“做空界的小皇帝詹姆斯”等等的大空头查诺斯（Jim Chanos）显然是任何人都不敢忽略的一个角色。近二十年前，他准确预见到了美国能源巨头安然将会崩塌，抓住机会大赚了一笔。\n只不过，交易场上不可能存在真正的常胜将军，比如过去五年当中，查诺斯一直在做空特斯拉，但后者现在已经超过丰田，成为全球市值最大的车企，也让他损失惨重。当然，查诺斯与特斯拉的故事并没有到此结束，这里暂且按下不表。\n在批评家眼中，卖空行为就是现代资本主义的一种祸害。像巴菲特（Warren Buffett）这样的价值型投资者总是寻找被市场低估的股票，但查诺斯和其他空头们则相反，寻找的对象是被高估者。发现目标之后，他们就会借来股票并卖掉，等待未来股价下跌后再买回来偿还。简而言之，“他们就是在其他人赔钱时赚钱的”——这是查诺斯自己的总结，而这样的做法显然会让一些人感到不适。\n\n查诺斯现在心情不错。一周前，他最大的做空对象之一德国支付公司Wirecard被迫承认自己的19亿欧元现金可能“并不存在”后申请了破产保护。早些时候，《金融时报》曾经对该公司的会计实践进行了长达五年的调查和报道。一位业内人士披露，查诺斯的基金靠着做空这家公司赚了大约1亿美元。被问及这桩交易后，查诺斯大笑起来：“这其实是苦乐参半的生意，因为做空经常需要忍受若干周，乃至若干个月的痛苦，而你真正欢乐的时光却只有几天乃至几个小时。”\n即便是批评者们，大多数也不能不承认，在正常的市场环境当中，空头也是有积极意义的，可以帮助矫正弊病。不过，还是有一派最尖锐的意见——多数都是来自做空对象——强调，空头们是在串通起来，就一家公司的会计或者财务状况播撒恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的种子，哪怕对象其实没有问题，这种对市场心理的操控最终也会产生滚雪球的效果，进而在行情层面做到自我实现。\n事实也确实有这样的意思，比如查诺斯这种量级的大空头，只需要披露自己在做空哪家企业，就往往能够对后者的股价产生立竿见影的影响。\n查诺斯毫不避讳地承认，自己确实和其他空头卖家联系频繁。比如，他做空瑞幸咖啡，就是听了浑水的布洛克（Carson Block）的主意。不过，他明确表示，所谓空头们串谋云云，则完全是无稽之谈了：“如果我们真的串谋，那肯定是要做什么比卖空赚钱多得多的大事情了。”\n前几年，加拿大保险公司Fairfax Financial曾经将一系列对冲基金告上了法庭。被告当中有查诺斯的基金，也有勒布（Dan Loeb）和科恩（Steve Cohen）等其他大佬的基金，原告称他们在做空阴谋中蓄意打压自己的股价。“这只是他们的一种感觉，而不是事实。”查诺斯评论道，“2018年，诉讼就被法庭因超出自己管辖权范围而驳回了，而在这个过程当中，该公司重新申报了过去的盈利数字。”\n查诺斯的对冲基金公司叫做Kynikos Associates，其名字是来自于希腊语的“愤世嫉俗”一词，而他强大的地方就在于能够发现正在酝酿中的企业灾难。这家纽约公司拥有20个员工，管理着15亿美元资产。查诺斯还在耶鲁大学兼职，教授金融欺诈史。他的教学大纲一直上溯到17世纪，而当今在他看来，“我们正身处欺诈的黄金时代”。\n查诺斯对当前环境的评价是，“一片名副其实的造假者的沃土，很长时间以来，企业界那些做了坏事的家伙总是能够逍遥法外”。他解释道，这种局面是多方面原因造成的：央行干预人为造就的十年大牛市；完全可以和互联网泡沫晚期相提并论的散户参与度；特朗普大搞“后真相政治，这个系统当中，我的事实就是你的假消息”；硅谷“装假装到成功”的文化……这一切和投资者生怕错过机会的心理纠缠在一起，再加上监管的失职，局面便彻底不可收拾了。\n查诺斯讽刺地说，金融监管和执法机构都是“考古学家——他们只有在那些企业已经完蛋之后才会告诉你问题出在哪里”。\n\n查诺斯的任务就是去努力了解一家公司的商业模式，然后判断其财报是否给予了准确的反映。在他的做空生涯当中，有些主题总是会不时重复出现：技术过时、消费者一时狂热、产品单一、成长全靠收购，以及在会计实践中搞鬼等。查诺斯尤其注意所谓“合法欺诈”——企业的行为完全符合会计法规和监管要求，但依然可以看出明确的“欺骗意图”。安然丑闻相当程度上正是如此——查诺斯发现，该公司使用激进的做法来计算前期利润，而将债务隐藏到子公司当中。\n在Wirecard这幕大戏当中，查诺斯算不上先知先觉。他是去年开始建仓做空这家德国支付公司的，在秋季，《金融时报》挖出了该公司内部文件，显示他们不当夸大迪拜和都柏林部门利润，递交给会计师行安永的客户名单系假造的之后，查诺斯又增加了头寸。\nWirecard最后的崩溃也颇有戏剧性色彩。不过，查诺斯要强调的是，现在骗子们都在走钢丝。很多时候，他们就是“毫不避讳地使用各种自己设计的指标”，靠这些指标“瞒天过海”。\n现在，企业的确经常利用各种创造性的指标来美化自己的账目，比如共享办公初创公司WeWork现在已经声名狼藉的所谓“社区调整后”EBITDA，还有，疫情期间，许多企业还使用了所谓EBITDAC，在寻常的利息、税项、折旧、摊销后面还加上了代表疫情的C——在这个新指标当中，他们就可以加入其实根本不存在的利润，他们宣称这种调整是因为，如果没有疫情发生，这些钱本是可以赚到的。\n查诺斯说，企业创造这些指标其实“只是为了让自己和现实世界越来越远”，而监管机构本应该对这些指标的使用加强管理力度的。\n查诺斯出生在一个希腊和爱尔兰移民组成的家庭中，他们家那时在密尔沃基经营着一家连锁干洗店。或许是因为这种商业背景，查诺斯很小就对股市产生了兴趣。从耶鲁大学毕业后，他先是为芝加哥一家投资银行工作，后来又加入了券商公司Gilford Securities，在那里开始写个股研究报告。研究生涯的第一个案例，查诺斯就一炮打响：“我开始研究和写报告的第一家重要企业，后来爆出了巨大的会计欺诈丑闻。”\nBaldwin-United最初是一家钢琴行，后来发展为金融超级市场。查诺斯在研究报告当中指出，该公司的账目存在彼此矛盾、难以自圆其说之处，他建议投资者卖出这只股票。在转年的1983年，这家公司正式宣告破产，创下了当时的最大企业破产案纪录。\nBaldwin崩盘后， 包括大名鼎鼎的索罗斯（George Soros）和斯坦哈特（Michael Steinhardt）在内，Gilford的不少对冲基金客户都对研究报告后面的查诺斯产生了兴趣——“这家伙还有什么其他不看好的股票？”\n之后很快，查诺斯就转投到德意志银行的纽约分部。不过，他在这里并没有做很久。1985年9月，《华尔街日报》在头版刊登了他们对一空头网络的所谓“激进方法”的调查报道，指称这个网络蓄意打压了诸多美国股票。报道将查诺斯描述成了居于空头网络中心的坏家伙。“人们觉得我头上长着双角，满身布满大疮。”于是，查诺斯和他的上级主管都被德银炒了鱿鱼，“需要补充的是，报道当中提到的十家‘受害者’公司，后来有九家的下场都是破产，或者被起诉欺诈。”\n从很早的时候开始，查诺斯就一直深信，做空其实只是“做空的镜像”而已。不过近期，他的想法也开始有所改变，“因为在市场运转当中，其实有很大的行为财务学成分”。在华尔街，“看涨理由无所不在”，比如管理层的乐观预期、成为并购目标的传言，以及盈利预期上调等等。\n“在这种环境当中，要站出来大声说，‘这些是我掌握的事实，而我根据这些事实得出的结论就是，这里存在一个做空的机会’，这确实需要一种非常独特的性格——我应该就具有这样的性格。”\n\n做空的感觉不是谁都能够消受得起的。1985年，查诺斯创建了Kynikos，不到一年，在当时的“喧嚣牛市”之下，查诺斯的生意伙伴就再也无法忍受空头交易了，想要将自己的股份卖给查诺斯。“我当场就付了钱，那可以算得上是我最成功的一笔交易。”查诺斯忍不住笑了起来。\n查诺斯拥有对冲基金行业史上最佳的表现记录之一。他的多空头股票策略基金Kynikos Capital Partners过去三十五年间，年均回报率高达22%，要两倍于标普500指数同期的涨幅。这段时间内，纯粹做空美股的Ursus（名字来自拉丁语“熊”）策略，不过年均损失2%。\n过去十年左右时间当中，由于各国央行刺激政策的作用，数以亿计的美元涌入金融市场，推高了几乎所有资产的价格，而这段时间自然也成为了空头卖家的苦日子。对于这段时间的交易，查诺斯的总结是：“非常谨慎，也非常痛苦。”\n融资困难就是最典型的挑战之一。2008年，只做空头的Ursus基金扣除费用，净回报高达44%，Kynikos旗下的总资产也达到了70亿美元的公司史上峰值，但那之后，这数字就开始不断下滑，到今天只剩下了大约15亿美元。今年，查诺斯将自己公司的一小部分股权出售给了投资公司Conlon & Co和前芝加哥市长戴利（Richard M Daley）的家族办公室。\n量化宽松政策已经绵延多年，而近期为减轻疫情造成的经济痛楚，更有愈演愈烈之势，查诺斯强调，这种做法会让拥有金融资产的人得到更大好处，“让贫富不均进一步恶化”。在他看来，联储其实应该寻求削减目前依然高达15%到18%的信用卡利率，而且他相信，各国央行这种“让富者愈富，而其他大多数人一无所获”的政策迟早会引发强烈的政治反弹，反噬自身。\n查诺斯做空了不少零工经济企业，比如共享出行公司优步和来福车，以及送餐公司Grubhub和Just Eat Takeaway，这些下注背后，政治风险是一个很重要的原因。查诺斯解释说，做空不单单是因为这些公司在亏钱，而是因为他相信，政界对低薪劳动者的境遇将会越来越重视，对这些公司的运营模式构成潜在威胁。\n\n查诺斯参加了民主党总统候选人的金融顾问委员会，而拜登目前正在支持加州一项强化零工经济劳动者权益保护的立法努力。如果拜登胜选，新政府很可能会加税。“相对于针对劳动所得增税，我觉得针对资本增税更加公平。我知道，这样的说法不讨华尔街喜欢，但是我一直就是这样认为的。”\n与查诺斯交谈，话题很难绕开特斯拉，毕竟五年前他开始做空该公司到现在，后者的股价已经上涨了大约六倍。查诺斯现在怎么想？“我觉得，这场牛市的希望和梦想已经被全部寄托到了马斯克（Elon Musk）身上。”他解释说，自己最初之所以决定要做空特斯拉，是因为该公司无法实现盈利，高度依赖债务，而且还面临着日益增强的竞争压力。\n在他看来，特斯拉“通过激进的会计手段美化了自己的业绩”。他还说特斯拉代表了一种“骗子文化”，因为他们大力鼓吹和向消费者推销的自动驾驶技术其实“并不存在”。\n\n那么，查诺斯这样喜欢做空，到底是为了赚钱，还是为了做自己认为正确的事情？\n“除非他们不让我做了，不然的话，我希望一直从事现在的事业。”查诺斯回忆，当Wirecard申请破产的消息传来，整家Kynikos公司都沸腾了，好像“有一道电流穿过”。“这种感觉会鼓舞你不断前行。”查诺斯强调，他相信“这个市场将涌现出史上最重大的做空机遇”。\n“麻烦就要来了，我不能预测到准确时间，但我知道它就要来了。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":948620949,"gmtCreate":1595346074781,"gmtModify":1704208674415,"author":{"id":"3553593254840309","authorId":"3553593254840309","name":"凯利公式","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553593254840309","authorIdStr":"3553593254840309"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WIMI\">$微美全息(WIMI)$</a>$云米科技(VIOT)$ 云米大力发展有AR全景的产品","listText":"<a 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