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兄得莫冲动
2020-10-09
$洪恩教育(IH)$
最后一次相信老虎,不然真不打了
兄得莫冲动
2020-05-02
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
谁买到了690的价格?
兄得莫冲动
2021-09-22
因为中国限制房价下跌,就这点美国大呼:还是你不要脸
抱歉,原内容已删除
兄得莫冲动
2021-07-08
马德原来涨股市跌,现在跌也要股市跌了?
抱歉,原内容已删除
兄得莫冲动
2020-09-30
$富途控股(FUTU)$
脸都不要了吗?
兄得莫冲动
2021-04-01
$怪兽充电(EM)$
老虎这个app做短线交易体验不是一般的差
兄得莫冲动
2020-10-06
$嘉和生物-B(06998)$
100手都不中,倒霉孩子,1800手续费
兄得莫冲动
2021-04-07
核心资产都在美国,我就不信了基金不配置核心资产跑来我大A买二流资产,那种美国一个制裁就断供断产的下三流货色基金敢配吗?
抱歉,原内容已删除
兄得莫冲动
2021-04-07
好的,十年后3000点见!
抱歉,原内容已删除
兄得莫冲动
2020-06-18
$中兴通讯(00763)$
尼玛啊还涨
兄得莫冲动
2020-05-26
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
这什么剧本真没见过,围观看戏
兄得莫冲动
2020-05-09
$金山云(KC)$
总算没白熬夜
兄得莫冲动
2020-03-25
$波音(BA)$
这是国家砸钱救波音??
兄得莫冲动
2020-10-23
$先声药业(02096)$
中了就亏钱,赚钱的时候不中
兄得莫冲动
2020-10-13
$秦淮数据(CD)$
弱鸡踏马的
兄得莫冲动
2020-05-14
$阅文集团(00772)$
我靠这拉升有点过分吧
兄得莫冲动
2020-05-14
$中芯国际(00981)$
马德,一大早挂单17.6,手贱自己撤了
兄得莫冲动
2021-01-25
$美光科技(MU)$
这垃圾股什么毛病马德
兄得莫冲动
2020-11-03
还上个锤子,估值被全面打压,还有人要才怪
蚂蚁十日:从马云喊话监管开始,以蚂蚁暂缓上市结束
兄得莫冲动
2020-10-02
$A50指数主连(CNmain)$
别人还没怎么样呢这里就跪下去不起来了笑死爸爸了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储FOMC声明及主席鲍威尔发布会重点一览</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-04 03:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>FOMC声明:</b></p>\n<p>利率水平:美联储将基准利率维持在0%-0.25%不变,委员们一致同意此次的利率决定;</p>\n<p>缩债计划:将于11月开始缩减购债,每月减少购债150亿美元(100亿美债和50亿MBS);</p>\n<p>经济观点:疫苗接种方面的进展和供应限制的缓解预计将支持经济活动和就业持续增长;</p>\n<p>通胀观点:导致通胀上升的因素预计将是暂时的,供需失衡导致部分行业价格大幅上涨;</p>\n<p><b>鲍威尔发布会:</b></p>\n<p>加息立场:现在还不是提高基准利率的时候,缩减购债的时机对加息没有直接信号意义;</p>\n<p>缩债计划:缩减购债计划将在2022年年中结束,准备根据经济情况调整债券购买步伐;</p>\n<p>经济观点:经济朝着美国联邦公开市场委员会的目标取得进展,今年经济料将强劲增长;</p>\n<p>就业市场:目前的失业率高估了劳动力市场的复苏,可能在明年下半年前实现充分就业;</p>\n<p>通胀观点:我们认为更高的通胀将持续下去,将在适当时候使用我们的工具来控制通胀;</p>\n<p>其他:接下来将回到资产负债表问题;正寻找通过补充杠杆率来解决流动性问题的方法。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92849ddf94d54bf9e6af60671fe1ef1","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134048237","content_text":"FOMC声明:\n利率水平:美联储将基准利率维持在0%-0.25%不变,委员们一致同意此次的利率决定;\n缩债计划:将于11月开始缩减购债,每月减少购债150亿美元(100亿美债和50亿MBS);\n经济观点:疫苗接种方面的进展和供应限制的缓解预计将支持经济活动和就业持续增长;\n通胀观点:导致通胀上升的因素预计将是暂时的,供需失衡导致部分行业价格大幅上涨;\n鲍威尔发布会:\n加息立场:现在还不是提高基准利率的时候,缩减购债的时机对加息没有直接信号意义;\n缩债计划:缩减购债计划将在2022年年中结束,准备根据经济情况调整债券购买步伐;\n经济观点:经济朝着美国联邦公开市场委员会的目标取得进展,今年经济料将强劲增长;\n就业市场:目前的失业率高估了劳动力市场的复苏,可能在明年下半年前实现充分就业;\n通胀观点:我们认为更高的通胀将持续下去,将在适当时候使用我们的工具来控制通胀;\n其他:接下来将回到资产负债表问题;正寻找通过补充杠杆率来解决流动性问题的方法。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869265083,"gmtCreate":1632294450242,"gmtModify":1632294450242,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为中国限制房价下跌,就这点美国大呼:还是你不要脸","listText":"因为中国限制房价下跌,就这点美国大呼:还是你不要脸","text":"因为中国限制房价下跌,就这点美国大呼:还是你不要脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869265083","repostId":"1138740934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138740934","pubTimestamp":1632280942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138740934?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中国不存在“雷曼时刻”!恒大与雷曼的四点不同","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138740934","media":"陈曦固收研究","summary":"近期,不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼,中秋节期间,港股大跌,地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看,恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处:\n第一,都与房地产相关,特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨,才能消化加杠","content":"<p>近期,不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼,中秋节期间,港股大跌,地产、银行领跌。</p>\n<p><b>表面上看,恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处:</b></p>\n<p><b>第一,都与房地产相关</b>,特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨,才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。</p>\n<p><b>第二,都是债务危机</b>。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多,因为资产是软的,债务是硬的,很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看,“股灾”的影响往往较小,例如2000年美国互联网泡沫,中国2015年股市异动,而债务危机的影响则要大得多,例如98年东南亚外债危机,08年美国次贷危机等。</p>\n<p><b>第三,都表现出传染性</b>。雷曼破产导致一系列连锁反应,恒大出事导致银行对房地产企业融资收缩,已经多家地方房企出现问题。</p>\n<p>雷曼时刻是美国次贷危机的重要加速点,雷曼倒掉之后,美国陷入全面的危机之中。</p>\n<p><b>既然恒大与雷曼有诸多相似,是否意味着中国会重演2008年的美国?</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为,中国重演美国2008年的可能性基本为零。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为,恒大与雷曼有以下本质差别:</b></p>\n<p><b>第一,雷曼背后是居民加杠杆,而恒大背后是地产企业加杠杆,对经济的影响完全不同。</b>08年美国房价下跌,居民被迫去杠杆,进而导致大量居民的资产负债表崩溃,消费能力急剧下降,是地产危机转为经济危机的根源;恒大背后是房地产企业加杠杆,中国的居民加杠杆并不严重。</p>\n<p>中国居民尽管也加杠杆买房,但是中国有严格的首付比例等限制,与美国次贷完全不可同日而语,<b>中国不存在居民资产负债表崩溃的可能。</b></p>\n<p><b>第二,雷曼时刻之后的关键是房价崩盘式下跌,导致抵押品快速贬值,继而出现全面危机;中国看不到房价断崖式下行的可能。</b>对于房价上涨压力大的地区,确实政策非常严格,而对于房价存在下跌压力的地区,则已经开始出台限制房价下跌政策。中国因城施策的背景下,房价未来大概率进入涨跌均有限的波动状态,甚至是冻结状态,不会触发抵押品贬值危机。<b>中国出问题仅限于房企,而不是押品,</b>这是与美国2008年的另一大关键区别。</p>\n<p><b>第三,中国有成熟的大型企业债务问题处置经验,</b>包商、华融、明天、安邦、海航等体量都与恒大可比,甚至有的比恒大更大,处置方式基本都是国家接管、业务拆分、切断传染。其中,能够避免雷曼重演的关键是:切断传染。我们认为即使真有个别中国的房企资不抵债,也能通过政府介入切断传染性(不是政府兜底,而是切断传染)。</p>\n<p><b>第四,银行是缓冲/加速债务危机的关键环节,中国的银行大多数具有国企背景,或者对监管、对政府的响应要比美国强得多。</b>如果按照市场化主体的行为逻辑,很容易出现挤兑(看房企出问题,于是全面抽贷断贷),而中国的银行不存在这个问题。在2020年3-4月疫情高峰、谁也看不清企业能否活下去的时候,中国的银行体系可以大量放贷,还是放中长期贷、甚至信用贷,足以表明中国的银行与美国的银行有巨大差异。</p>\n<p><b>综上所述,我们认为,恒大并不是中国版雷曼,两者差异非常大。如果真的有大型房企资不抵债,则更类似之前的个别大型企业的定点爆破,而不会出现类似美国2008年的风险传染。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于中国经济和资本市场,我们认为:</b></p>\n<p><b>1、房地产调控大方向不会变化</b>,2020疫情后-2021年上半年,房地产是中国经济的重要支撑,而现在开始,<b>房地产确实正在变成对经济的拖累。</b></p>\n<p>2、<b>中国房地产行业不可能消失</b>,即使是发达国家,房地产业仍然占有重要位置,因此,<b>如果房地产行业整体错杀,特别是如果符合三道红线的优质房企被错杀,则其股、债均存在投资机会。</b></p>\n<p><b>3、对于股市的影响,与美国2008年不可同日而语。</b>港股更多的受到外资影响,不了解中国国情,外资误判是正常的;<b>而如果中国股市出现类似港股的下跌,则是买入机会。</b></p>\n<p><b>4、对于债券市场</b>,雷曼时刻之后,美债收益率上行,有观点认为中国可能会出现类似情况,这基本属于误读。美国当年是真的出现了“现金为王”的情况,避险避到只认现金,而中国距离那一步实在是十万八千里。我们认为,中国出现类似美国当年的避险情绪很难,<b>就算真的出现避险,中国央行也会保证流动性</b>,类似包商、永煤之后,导致的是国债收益率下行而不是上行。</p>\n<p><b>我们认为,恒大对中国债市的主要影响是两方面:</b></p>\n<p><b>一是寻找优质房企的地产债错杀机会;</b></p>\n<p><b>二是确认调控对于房地产投资的影响</b>,这将导致经济下行压力加大,在内需本就不足的情况下,<b>货币宽松可能性上升</b>(我们维持10-11月存在降息可能)<b>。</b></p>\n<p><b>中国不存在“雷曼时刻”,维持3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变,同时提示低估值蓝筹股的投资机会。</b></p>","source":"lsy1627443742494","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国不存在“雷曼时刻”!恒大与雷曼的四点不同\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-22 11:22 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk><strong>陈曦固收研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期,不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼,中秋节期间,港股大跌,地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看,恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处:\n第一,都与房地产相关,特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨,才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。\n第二,都是债务危机。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多,因为资产是软的,债务是硬的,很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看,“股灾”的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138740934","content_text":"近期,不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼,中秋节期间,港股大跌,地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看,恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处:\n第一,都与房地产相关,特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨,才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。\n第二,都是债务危机。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多,因为资产是软的,债务是硬的,很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看,“股灾”的影响往往较小,例如2000年美国互联网泡沫,中国2015年股市异动,而债务危机的影响则要大得多,例如98年东南亚外债危机,08年美国次贷危机等。\n第三,都表现出传染性。雷曼破产导致一系列连锁反应,恒大出事导致银行对房地产企业融资收缩,已经多家地方房企出现问题。\n雷曼时刻是美国次贷危机的重要加速点,雷曼倒掉之后,美国陷入全面的危机之中。\n既然恒大与雷曼有诸多相似,是否意味着中国会重演2008年的美国?\n我们认为,中国重演美国2008年的可能性基本为零。\n我们认为,恒大与雷曼有以下本质差别:\n第一,雷曼背后是居民加杠杆,而恒大背后是地产企业加杠杆,对经济的影响完全不同。08年美国房价下跌,居民被迫去杠杆,进而导致大量居民的资产负债表崩溃,消费能力急剧下降,是地产危机转为经济危机的根源;恒大背后是房地产企业加杠杆,中国的居民加杠杆并不严重。\n中国居民尽管也加杠杆买房,但是中国有严格的首付比例等限制,与美国次贷完全不可同日而语,中国不存在居民资产负债表崩溃的可能。\n第二,雷曼时刻之后的关键是房价崩盘式下跌,导致抵押品快速贬值,继而出现全面危机;中国看不到房价断崖式下行的可能。对于房价上涨压力大的地区,确实政策非常严格,而对于房价存在下跌压力的地区,则已经开始出台限制房价下跌政策。中国因城施策的背景下,房价未来大概率进入涨跌均有限的波动状态,甚至是冻结状态,不会触发抵押品贬值危机。中国出问题仅限于房企,而不是押品,这是与美国2008年的另一大关键区别。\n第三,中国有成熟的大型企业债务问题处置经验,包商、华融、明天、安邦、海航等体量都与恒大可比,甚至有的比恒大更大,处置方式基本都是国家接管、业务拆分、切断传染。其中,能够避免雷曼重演的关键是:切断传染。我们认为即使真有个别中国的房企资不抵债,也能通过政府介入切断传染性(不是政府兜底,而是切断传染)。\n第四,银行是缓冲/加速债务危机的关键环节,中国的银行大多数具有国企背景,或者对监管、对政府的响应要比美国强得多。如果按照市场化主体的行为逻辑,很容易出现挤兑(看房企出问题,于是全面抽贷断贷),而中国的银行不存在这个问题。在2020年3-4月疫情高峰、谁也看不清企业能否活下去的时候,中国的银行体系可以大量放贷,还是放中长期贷、甚至信用贷,足以表明中国的银行与美国的银行有巨大差异。\n综上所述,我们认为,恒大并不是中国版雷曼,两者差异非常大。如果真的有大型房企资不抵债,则更类似之前的个别大型企业的定点爆破,而不会出现类似美国2008年的风险传染。\n对于中国经济和资本市场,我们认为:\n1、房地产调控大方向不会变化,2020疫情后-2021年上半年,房地产是中国经济的重要支撑,而现在开始,房地产确实正在变成对经济的拖累。\n2、中国房地产行业不可能消失,即使是发达国家,房地产业仍然占有重要位置,因此,如果房地产行业整体错杀,特别是如果符合三道红线的优质房企被错杀,则其股、债均存在投资机会。\n3、对于股市的影响,与美国2008年不可同日而语。港股更多的受到外资影响,不了解中国国情,外资误判是正常的;而如果中国股市出现类似港股的下跌,则是买入机会。\n4、对于债券市场,雷曼时刻之后,美债收益率上行,有观点认为中国可能会出现类似情况,这基本属于误读。美国当年是真的出现了“现金为王”的情况,避险避到只认现金,而中国距离那一步实在是十万八千里。我们认为,中国出现类似美国当年的避险情绪很难,就算真的出现避险,中国央行也会保证流动性,类似包商、永煤之后,导致的是国债收益率下行而不是上行。\n我们认为,恒大对中国债市的主要影响是两方面:\n一是寻找优质房企的地产债错杀机会;\n二是确认调控对于房地产投资的影响,这将导致经济下行压力加大,在内需本就不足的情况下,货币宽松可能性上升(我们维持10-11月存在降息可能)。\n中国不存在“雷曼时刻”,维持3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变,同时提示低估值蓝筹股的投资机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":143026430,"gmtCreate":1625753155720,"gmtModify":1625753155720,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"马德原来涨股市跌,现在跌也要股市跌了?","listText":"马德原来涨股市跌,现在跌也要股市跌了?","text":"马德原来涨股市跌,现在跌也要股市跌了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143026430","repostId":"1172733132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172733132","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1625711383,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172733132?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-08 10:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“全球资产定价之锚”狂跌,发生了什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172733132","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"10年期美债收益率连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低。对德尔塔变异毒株的担心,经济数据回落,美国债务上限临近重启,以及美联储的态度是主导近期美债收益率走势变化的关键因素。\n\n美国10年期国债收益率继续下行,","content":"<blockquote>\n 10年期美债收益率连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低。对德尔塔变异毒株的担心,经济数据回落,美国债务上限临近重启,以及美联储的态度是主导近期美债收益率走势变化的关键因素。\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国10年期国债收益率继续下行,不仅反映出投资者对美国经济增长前景的担忧,也反映了对传染性极强的德尔塔变异毒株的担心。</p>\n<p>7月7日周三美股盘初,美国10年期国债收益率一度降至1.30%下方,<b>连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低,也是今年2月以来首次跌破1.30%。</b></p>\n<p>在美联储6月会议纪要公布后,10年期美债收益率继续维持在较低水平。纪要显示,美联储官员们正在就如何以及何时开始缩减央行对经济的支持展开辩论。</p>\n<p>截止纽约尾盘,美国10年期国债收益率接近1.32%,日内降3个基点,处于2月18日以来同时段最低水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/281f0ec1d91531e8662d1d147de1df8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>国债收益率是一个受到密切关注的经济晴雨表,尤其是长期债券收益率:当经济前景改善时,收益率往往上行;而当经济增长前景动摇时,则会下行。</p>\n<p>今年一季度,美债收益率曾一度大幅攀升,然而近日以来却一路走低,某种程度上反映了投资者在重新评估对经济复苏的预测,同时各种迹象也显示美国国会和美联储似乎提供的刺激力度可能没有此前那样强劲。</p>\n<p><b>第一个因素来自德尔塔变异毒株,这种传染性极高的毒株给经济复苏蒙上了阴影。</b></p>\n<p>根据美国CDC最新公布的数据,德尔塔变异毒株已经成为美国主要流行的毒株。截至7月3日的两周内,美国新增病例中部德尔塔变异毒株的比例占到了51.7%。</p>\n<p>与此同时,美国CDC主任Rochelle Walensky上周表示,美国仍有约1000个县的疫苗覆盖率低于30%,这些县大部分位于美国东南部和中西部。美国CDC已经发现,随着德尔塔变异毒株的进一步传播,这些地区的发病率正在上升。</p>\n<p><b>此外,经济数据方面也出现回落,意味着美国经济复苏或放缓。</b></p>\n<p>7月6日公布的6月美国ISM服务业指数为60.1,低于预期,同时较5月创下的64这一历史高位显著回落。其中就业分项指数更是从扩张转为收缩,创下六个月新低。</p>\n<p><b>还有分析师认为,美国TGA账户可能也是一个因素。</b></p>\n<p>美国债务上限将在7月底生效,即美国财政部需要在此之前压降TGA账户余额。MarketWatch援引Aptus Capital Advisors固收分析师John Luke Tyner表示,TGA账户在积累了大量资金后,正在逐步减少,导致了债券供应量的减少,这是近期债券收益率走势变化的一个关键因素。</p>\n<p><b>最后当然是美联储的态度。</b></p>\n<p>隔夜公布的美联储6月会议纪要暗示,由于今年迄今为止经济增长强于预期,美联储官员们预计美联储能够比预期更早开始缩减QE。</p>\n<p>华尔街日报表示,美联储可能会减少国债购买或者提高短期利率的迹象,可能导致投资者抛售债券,从而推高收益率。但是最近几周,只有短期收益率上行,而长债收益率下行,这表明投资者担心货币政策收紧可能会损害经济复苏。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“全球资产定价之锚”狂跌,发生了什么?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“全球资产定价之锚”狂跌,发生了什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-07-08 10:29 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>10年期美债收益率连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低。对德尔塔变异毒株的担心,经济数据回落,美国债务上限临近重启,以及美联储的态度是主导近期美债收益率走势变化的关键因素。\n\n美国10年期国债收益率继续下行,不仅反映出投资者对美国经济增长前景的担忧,也反映了对传染性极强的德尔塔变异毒株的担心。\n7月7日周三美股盘初,美国10年期国债收益率一度降至1.30%下方,连续第二日创2月以来盘中新低,也是今年2月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ 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Walensky上周表示,美国仍有约1000个县的疫苗覆盖率低于30%,这些县大部分位于美国东南部和中西部。美国CDC已经发现,随着德尔塔变异毒株的进一步传播,这些地区的发病率正在上升。\n此外,经济数据方面也出现回落,意味着美国经济复苏或放缓。\n7月6日公布的6月美国ISM服务业指数为60.1,低于预期,同时较5月创下的64这一历史高位显著回落。其中就业分项指数更是从扩张转为收缩,创下六个月新低。\n还有分析师认为,美国TGA账户可能也是一个因素。\n美国债务上限将在7月底生效,即美国财政部需要在此之前压降TGA账户余额。MarketWatch援引Aptus Capital Advisors固收分析师John Luke Tyner表示,TGA账户在积累了大量资金后,正在逐步减少,导致了债券供应量的减少,这是近期债券收益率走势变化的一个关键因素。\n最后当然是美联储的态度。\n隔夜公布的美联储6月会议纪要暗示,由于今年迄今为止经济增长强于预期,美联储官员们预计美联储能够比预期更早开始缩减QE。\n华尔街日报表示,美联储可能会减少国债购买或者提高短期利率的迹象,可能导致投资者抛售债券,从而推高收益率。但是最近几周,只有短期收益率上行,而长债收益率下行,这表明投资者担心货币政策收紧可能会损害经济复苏。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":125394575,"gmtCreate":1624648709397,"gmtModify":1624648709397,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$维珍银河(SPCE)$</a> 有毒","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$维珍银河(SPCE)$</a> 有毒","text":"$维珍银河(SPCE)$ 有毒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125394575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":126538137,"gmtCreate":1624578292729,"gmtModify":1624578292729,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"怎么不能打??","listText":"怎么不能打??","text":"怎么不能打??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126538137","repostId":"1190242896","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190242896","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624571770,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190242896?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-25 05:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"滴滴更新招股书,IPO定价13.5美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190242896","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月25日凌晨消息,滴滴今日更新招股书,预计将把美国IPO定价设在定价区间的中部13.5美元/ADS,计划通过美国IPO发行2.88亿份ADS,代表7200万股A类普通股。\n北京时间6月11日","content":"<p>北京时间6月25日凌晨消息,滴滴今日更新招股书,预计将把美国IPO定价设在定价区间的中部13.5美元/ADS,计划通过美国IPO发行2.88亿份ADS,代表7200万股A类普通股。</p>\n<p>北京时间6月11日,滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)递交IPO申请,拟于纽交所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI“。高盛、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、华兴资本担任承销商。</p>\n<p>招股书显示,在截至2021年3月31日的12个月里,滴滴全球年活跃用户为4.93亿,全球年活跃司机1500万。其中,自2020年3月31日至2021年3月31日,滴滴在中国拥有3.77亿年活跃用户和1300万年活跃司机。2021年第一季度,滴滴中国出行拥有1.56亿月活用户,中国出行业务日均交易量为2500万次。</p>\n<p>截至2021年3月,滴滴在包括中国在内的15个国家约4000多个城镇开展业务,提供网约车、出租车、顺风车、共享单车、共享电单车、代驾、车服、货运、金融和自动驾驶等服务。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n滴滴更新招股书,IPO定价13.5美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-25 05:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>北京时间6月25日凌晨消息,滴滴今日更新招股书,预计将把美国IPO定价设在定价区间的中部13.5美元/ADS,计划通过美国IPO发行2.88亿份ADS,代表7200万股A类普通股。</p>\n<p>北京时间6月11日,滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)递交IPO申请,拟于纽交所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI“。高盛、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、华兴资本担任承销商。</p>\n<p>招股书显示,在截至2021年3月31日的12个月里,滴滴全球年活跃用户为4.93亿,全球年活跃司机1500万。其中,自2020年3月31日至2021年3月31日,滴滴在中国拥有3.77亿年活跃用户和1300万年活跃司机。2021年第一季度,滴滴中国出行拥有1.56亿月活用户,中国出行业务日均交易量为2500万次。</p>\n<p>截至2021年3月,滴滴在包括中国在内的15个国家约4000多个城镇开展业务,提供网约车、出租车、顺风车、共享单车、共享电单车、代驾、车服、货运、金融和自动驾驶等服务。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf210b0a9da00c82cb2c925171714e26","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190242896","content_text":"北京时间6月25日凌晨消息,滴滴今日更新招股书,预计将把美国IPO定价设在定价区间的中部13.5美元/ADS,计划通过美国IPO发行2.88亿份ADS,代表7200万股A类普通股。\n北京时间6月11日,滴滴出行正式向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)递交IPO申请,拟于纽交所挂牌上市,股票代码为“DIDI“。高盛、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、华兴资本担任承销商。\n招股书显示,在截至2021年3月31日的12个月里,滴滴全球年活跃用户为4.93亿,全球年活跃司机1500万。其中,自2020年3月31日至2021年3月31日,滴滴在中国拥有3.77亿年活跃用户和1300万年活跃司机。2021年第一季度,滴滴中国出行拥有1.56亿月活用户,中国出行业务日均交易量为2500万次。\n截至2021年3月,滴滴在包括中国在内的15个国家约4000多个城镇开展业务,提供网约车、出租车、顺风车、共享单车、共享电单车、代驾、车服、货运、金融和自动驾驶等服务。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128684856,"gmtCreate":1624513855375,"gmtModify":1624513855375,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a> 的老顾客了,消费了很多次,平时在上面买水果比较多,总的来说性价比还是不错的,送货速度也快,希望上市以后公司能做大做强,争取先干掉天猫超市哈哈(最近有被天猫气到[白眼][白眼])","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a> 的老顾客了,消费了很多次,平时在上面买水果比较多,总的来说性价比还是不错的,送货速度也快,希望上市以后公司能做大做强,争取先干掉天猫超市哈哈(最近有被天猫气到[白眼][白眼])","text":"$每日优鲜(MF)$ 的老顾客了,消费了很多次,平时在上面买水果比较多,总的来说性价比还是不错的,送货速度也快,希望上市以后公司能做大做强,争取先干掉天猫超市哈哈(最近有被天猫气到[白眼][白眼])","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128684856","repostId":"166835453","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":166835453,"gmtCreate":1624001061468,"gmtModify":1631066875375,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f487d6799e86204e80dfde72e6040c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"【每日优鲜上市】分享使用体验,赢100元储值卡!","htmlText":"每日优鲜是一家技术驱动的创新型社区零售企业,成立于2014年10月,旨在成为中国最大的社区零售数字化平台。公司首创“前置仓”模式,并推出智慧菜场业务和零售云业务,进一步赋能社区零售行业参与者实现数字化升级。 每日优鲜上市之际, 本帖下评论每日优鲜的下单购物体验or对每日优鲜的上市祝福,随机抽取走心评论10名,每人获得【每日优鲜100元储值卡】一张!!!😍😍活动时间:6月23日-6月28日 参与步骤:1. 指定活动帖【分享使用体验,赢100元储值卡!】下评论使用每日优鲜下单的购物体验; 2. 随机抽取幸运奖x10; 3. 不可重复留言,每人最多可获奖一次; 4. 获奖名单于活动结束后5个工作日内公布,于15个工作日内完成发放; <a href=\"http://as-vip.missfresh.cn/frontend/mobile-activity/cpa-channel.html?fromSource=occ_xinke0622laohu\" target=\"_blank\">每日优鲜新客红包领取>></a> 大家快快在下面评论吧!!海量储值卡说不定就是你的啦~😜 <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/ipo-missfresh/#/\" target=\"_blank\">每日优鲜上市联合活动传送门>></a>","listText":"每日优鲜是一家技术驱动的创新型社区零售企业,成立于2014年10月,旨在成为中国最大的社区零售数字化平台。公司首创“前置仓”模式,并推出智慧菜场业务和零售云业务,进一步赋能社区零售行业参与者实现数字化升级。 每日优鲜上市之际, 本帖下评论每日优鲜的下单购物体验or对每日优鲜的上市祝福,随机抽取走心评论10名,每人获得【每日优鲜100元储值卡】一张!!!😍😍活动时间:6月23日-6月28日 参与步骤:1. 指定活动帖【分享使用体验,赢100元储值卡!】下评论使用每日优鲜下单的购物体验; 2. 随机抽取幸运奖x10; 3. 不可重复留言,每人最多可获奖一次; 4. 获奖名单于活动结束后5个工作日内公布,于15个工作日内完成发放; <a href=\"http://as-vip.missfresh.cn/frontend/mobile-activity/cpa-channel.html?fromSource=occ_xinke0622laohu\" target=\"_blank\">每日优鲜新客红包领取>></a> 大家快快在下面评论吧!!海量储值卡说不定就是你的啦~😜 <a href=\"https://www.itiger.com/activity/market/2021/ipo-missfresh/#/\" target=\"_blank\">每日优鲜上市联合活动传送门>></a>","text":"每日优鲜是一家技术驱动的创新型社区零售企业,成立于2014年10月,旨在成为中国最大的社区零售数字化平台。公司首创“前置仓”模式,并推出智慧菜场业务和零售云业务,进一步赋能社区零售行业参与者实现数字化升级。 每日优鲜上市之际, 本帖下评论每日优鲜的下单购物体验or对每日优鲜的上市祝福,随机抽取走心评论10名,每人获得【每日优鲜100元储值卡】一张!!!😍😍活动时间:6月23日-6月28日 参与步骤:1. 指定活动帖【分享使用体验,赢100元储值卡!】下评论使用每日优鲜下单的购物体验; 2. 随机抽取幸运奖x10; 3. 不可重复留言,每人最多可获奖一次; 4. 获奖名单于活动结束后5个工作日内公布,于15个工作日内完成发放; 每日优鲜新客红包领取>> 大家快快在下面评论吧!!海量储值卡说不定就是你的啦~😜 每日优鲜上市联合活动传送门>>","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc110a6a61dd50c6a300bc5b697c075","width":"561","height":"727"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166835453","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":129261311,"gmtCreate":1624374167533,"gmtModify":1624374167533,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">$爱回收(RERE)$</a>这股就是套现来的果然没看错","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RERE\">$爱回收(RERE)$</a>这股就是套现来的果然没看错","text":"$爱回收(RERE)$这股就是套现来的果然没看错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129261311","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":129817247,"gmtCreate":1624368874489,"gmtModify":1624368874489,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">$满帮(YMM)$</a>能赚一顿海底捞吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">$满帮(YMM)$</a>能赚一顿海底捞吗?","text":"$满帮(YMM)$能赚一顿海底捞吗?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/446bf8c9d11dace528bb699533e08172","width":"550","height":"956"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129817247","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180991110,"gmtCreate":1623167231630,"gmtModify":1623167231630,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">$掌门教育(ZME)$</a>看你表演","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">$掌门教育(ZME)$</a>看你表演","text":"$掌门教育(ZME)$看你表演","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180991110","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375613577,"gmtCreate":1619331505799,"gmtModify":1619331505799,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"结论就是大家都去买基金,然后长线持有?","listText":"结论就是大家都去买基金,然后长线持有?","text":"结论就是大家都去买基金,然后长线持有?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375613577","repostId":"1188335239","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188335239","pubTimestamp":1619314561,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188335239?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 09:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"股市更像“输家的游戏”?这个测试真相了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188335239","media":"兴证全球基金","summary":"最近一则新闻刷屏:面对大跌后的阿里巴巴,查理·芒格今年一季度突然重仓“抄底”。要理解投资大师的选择,有一个相关问题值得考虑:你更倾向于在以下哪个时间入场?\nA. 几年内股价持续上涨-涨幅很大。\nB.","content":"<p>最近一则新闻刷屏:面对大跌后的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>,查理·芒格今年一季度突然重仓“抄底”。要理解投资大师的选择,有一个相关问题值得考虑:你更倾向于在以下哪个时间入场?</p>\n<p>A. 几年内股价持续上涨-涨幅很大。</p>\n<p>B. 几年内股价持续下跌-跌幅很大。</p>\n<p>这个问题来源于《赢得输家的游戏》,作者是曾任先锋基金董事的查尔斯·埃利斯。大家的选择是什么呢?——如果选择A,那么你和书中90%的受试者一样;但作者认为正确的选择是B,因为以越低的价格买入,花费相同的成本获得的股份越多,未来可能的收入往往越多。这个测试说明,许多投资者的情绪和理性选择往往相违背。</p>\n<p><b>为什么股市更像“输家游戏”?</b></p>\n<p><b>在“赢家游戏”里,结果由赢家的正确行动决定;而在“输家游戏”里,结果则往往由输家的错误决定。</b></p>\n<p>作者举了一个例子,网球比赛可以分为两种:专业球员“赢得”比分,而业余球员则是“输掉”比分。在专业网球比赛中,比赛的最终结果由赢家的行动所决定,出色的球员很少失误;但业余网球比赛的结果往往由输家决定,因为业余球手很少击败对手,相反他们却经常“击败”自己,获胜的一方得分更高是因为对手失分更多。</p>\n<p>投资和网球极其相似,现在美国市场中充斥着大量专业投资者,大家都不太会犯错或者错误都十分相似,所以投资也更像是“输家游戏”。而想赢得“输家游戏”的最好方法,就是减少错误。作者认为投资者若想走得更远,应该掌握以下要点:</p>\n<p><b>投资的核心原则:认识你自己</b></p>\n<p>很多投资者的情绪会随着市场波动而受到影响,面对这种情况,作者提出市场先生和价值先生的故事——市场先生情绪变化无常,令人着迷、极具欺骗性,易受到短期波动的影响。而价值先生情绪稳定,可靠,长期做着重要的工作,却总是被投资者忽视。但将时间延长,市场先生荒谬的行为会像沙滩上的沙堡一样随“潮水”退去,价值先生总能获得最终的胜利。</p>\n<p>面对市场先生的各种诱惑,<b>“认识你自己”是投资的核心原则之一</b>。股票市场里最大的挑战其实并不来自市场先生和价值先生,挑战是无形的,不能量化的,隐藏在每个投资者的情绪弱点中,如果能做到理性对待、目光长远、耐心持有、坚持目标就能在投资的路上走的更远。</p>\n<p>面对市场短期的频繁波动,<b>善意的忽略是投资成功的秘诀之一</b>。正如巴菲特所言:“日子久了,我们总会碰到好时候和坏时候,但投资并不因为好时候非常热情或者坏时候非常沮丧而有所得。”</p>\n<p><b>“击败市场”,不如加入市场</b></p>\n<p>基于长远眼光和明确目标来确立投资策略,是建立投资组合的基础,也是经历市场周期、进行长期管理的基础。要先清楚自己的财务状况和投资现状,对应自己的收入水平、储蓄、支出、使用可支配资金的时间和数量。</p>\n<p>面对市场随时可能出现的极端情况,只有投资者知道自己面对价格波动的承受能力。“击败市场的唯一方法就是击败专业投资者,但作为一个集体,他们就是市场。”太多人做不好投资,都是因为太想赢,投资者应该专注真正可能实现的合理目标,确定自己的投资策略,持之以恒。</p>\n<p>面对变化无常的资本市场,如果投资者不能击败最大的、最活跃的机构,那么进行基金投资就是个良好的选择——既然无法“击败市场”,为什么不选择加入呢?</p>\n<p><b>为投资设定时间框架</b></p>\n<p>在投资方面,时间就是阿基米德的杠杆。投资的时间长度是制定正确资产组合的关键,持有的时间越长,投资组合的长期回报就可能更接近投资者的预期。在不同的条件和目标下,时间会改变投资者对不同投资方式的应用。</p>\n<p><b>1900~2000年扣除通胀后,股票、债券和现金的收益范围</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f83c4f275be0adef10b0dddb928df55\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>数据来源:《赢得输家的游戏》</b></p>\n<p>数据显示,长期投资对投资者最有利。从长期来看,股票每年的回报率不太稳定,但如果将时间框架设置为5年,投资收益率的规律性会明显提高。如果时间框架设置为10年,回报率的规律性更明显。</p>\n<p>相似的是天气和气候的概念:天气是短期波动,而气候是长期概念,天气变化无常,但长期来看,天气终会变成有规律的气候。长期,遇到“反常事件”是不可避免的,但最终是有规律可循的。</p>\n<p>查尔斯·埃利斯指出:<b>“长期来看,投资者遭受损失的一种典型情况是:在市场形式非常糟糕的时候,恐慌地清仓出局。他们会正好错过股票出乎意料大涨的好日子。”</b></p>","source":"lsy1619314504794","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股市更像“输家的游戏”?这个测试真相了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股市更像“输家的游戏”?这个测试真相了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 09:36 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/78MKiwIb_49l6_dm-3RAfQ><strong>兴证全球基金</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近一则新闻刷屏:面对大跌后的阿里巴巴,查理·芒格今年一季度突然重仓“抄底”。要理解投资大师的选择,有一个相关问题值得考虑:你更倾向于在以下哪个时间入场?\nA. 几年内股价持续上涨-涨幅很大。\nB. 几年内股价持续下跌-跌幅很大。\n这个问题来源于《赢得输家的游戏》,作者是曾任先锋基金董事的查尔斯·埃利斯。大家的选择是什么呢?——如果选择A,那么你和书中90%的受试者一样;但作者认为正确的选择是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/78MKiwIb_49l6_dm-3RAfQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/78MKiwIb_49l6_dm-3RAfQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188335239","content_text":"最近一则新闻刷屏:面对大跌后的阿里巴巴,查理·芒格今年一季度突然重仓“抄底”。要理解投资大师的选择,有一个相关问题值得考虑:你更倾向于在以下哪个时间入场?\nA. 几年内股价持续上涨-涨幅很大。\nB. 几年内股价持续下跌-跌幅很大。\n这个问题来源于《赢得输家的游戏》,作者是曾任先锋基金董事的查尔斯·埃利斯。大家的选择是什么呢?——如果选择A,那么你和书中90%的受试者一样;但作者认为正确的选择是B,因为以越低的价格买入,花费相同的成本获得的股份越多,未来可能的收入往往越多。这个测试说明,许多投资者的情绪和理性选择往往相违背。\n为什么股市更像“输家游戏”?\n在“赢家游戏”里,结果由赢家的正确行动决定;而在“输家游戏”里,结果则往往由输家的错误决定。\n作者举了一个例子,网球比赛可以分为两种:专业球员“赢得”比分,而业余球员则是“输掉”比分。在专业网球比赛中,比赛的最终结果由赢家的行动所决定,出色的球员很少失误;但业余网球比赛的结果往往由输家决定,因为业余球手很少击败对手,相反他们却经常“击败”自己,获胜的一方得分更高是因为对手失分更多。\n投资和网球极其相似,现在美国市场中充斥着大量专业投资者,大家都不太会犯错或者错误都十分相似,所以投资也更像是“输家游戏”。而想赢得“输家游戏”的最好方法,就是减少错误。作者认为投资者若想走得更远,应该掌握以下要点:\n投资的核心原则:认识你自己\n很多投资者的情绪会随着市场波动而受到影响,面对这种情况,作者提出市场先生和价值先生的故事——市场先生情绪变化无常,令人着迷、极具欺骗性,易受到短期波动的影响。而价值先生情绪稳定,可靠,长期做着重要的工作,却总是被投资者忽视。但将时间延长,市场先生荒谬的行为会像沙滩上的沙堡一样随“潮水”退去,价值先生总能获得最终的胜利。\n面对市场先生的各种诱惑,“认识你自己”是投资的核心原则之一。股票市场里最大的挑战其实并不来自市场先生和价值先生,挑战是无形的,不能量化的,隐藏在每个投资者的情绪弱点中,如果能做到理性对待、目光长远、耐心持有、坚持目标就能在投资的路上走的更远。\n面对市场短期的频繁波动,善意的忽略是投资成功的秘诀之一。正如巴菲特所言:“日子久了,我们总会碰到好时候和坏时候,但投资并不因为好时候非常热情或者坏时候非常沮丧而有所得。”\n“击败市场”,不如加入市场\n基于长远眼光和明确目标来确立投资策略,是建立投资组合的基础,也是经历市场周期、进行长期管理的基础。要先清楚自己的财务状况和投资现状,对应自己的收入水平、储蓄、支出、使用可支配资金的时间和数量。\n面对市场随时可能出现的极端情况,只有投资者知道自己面对价格波动的承受能力。“击败市场的唯一方法就是击败专业投资者,但作为一个集体,他们就是市场。”太多人做不好投资,都是因为太想赢,投资者应该专注真正可能实现的合理目标,确定自己的投资策略,持之以恒。\n面对变化无常的资本市场,如果投资者不能击败最大的、最活跃的机构,那么进行基金投资就是个良好的选择——既然无法“击败市场”,为什么不选择加入呢?\n为投资设定时间框架\n在投资方面,时间就是阿基米德的杠杆。投资的时间长度是制定正确资产组合的关键,持有的时间越长,投资组合的长期回报就可能更接近投资者的预期。在不同的条件和目标下,时间会改变投资者对不同投资方式的应用。\n1900~2000年扣除通胀后,股票、债券和现金的收益范围\n\n数据来源:《赢得输家的游戏》\n数据显示,长期投资对投资者最有利。从长期来看,股票每年的回报率不太稳定,但如果将时间框架设置为5年,投资收益率的规律性会明显提高。如果时间框架设置为10年,回报率的规律性更明显。\n相似的是天气和气候的概念:天气是短期波动,而气候是长期概念,天气变化无常,但长期来看,天气终会变成有规律的气候。长期,遇到“反常事件”是不可避免的,但最终是有规律可循的。\n查尔斯·埃利斯指出:“长期来看,投资者遭受损失的一种典型情况是:在市场形式非常糟糕的时候,恐慌地清仓出局。他们会正好错过股票出乎意料大涨的好日子。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345432046,"gmtCreate":1618328386485,"gmtModify":1618328386485,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345432046","repostId":"342118432","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342670891,"gmtCreate":1618215542213,"gmtModify":1618215542213,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342670891","repostId":"348737583","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":348737583,"gmtCreate":1617962174338,"gmtModify":1617967808006,"author":{"id":"3502860692623653","authorId":"3502860692623653","authorIdStr":"3502860692623653","name":"爱上趋势股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f4521614b0cae62aff9fa7fa80fa77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"一文看懂,如何布局全球芯片产业链!!!","htmlText":"——趋势哥出品,必是精品—— “缺芯潮”还在愈演愈烈,越来越多车企被迫停产: 这一轮“缺芯潮”的原因是【需求端增加】,同时【供给端减少】,可谓戴维斯双击。 【需求端增加】:智能穿戴、电子设备、智能电车等等工业新产品的诞生,对芯片需求陡增。 简单来说,就是现在和未来,我们身边的工业品会越来越智能化,它们对芯片的需求也越来越多。 【供给端减少】: 疫情影响,停工停产; 天灾人祸影响,比如:法国工人ba工、美国大雪、日本地震火灾; 产能配置影响,比如:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> 把大部分产能都给了高利润的手机芯片,汽车、电子等分不出产能了。 以上因素,导致了“缺芯潮”的爆发。 如果在细分一下,所谓“缺芯潮”,主要是指【28nm及28nm以上】的中低端汽车、电子芯片。 28nm以下(不含)的高工艺芯片,以手机为主,主要产能集中在台积电手里;受制于美国,大陆的晶圆厂短期难以在这个领域有所突破。而28nm以上(含)的成熟工艺,大陆已基本自主可控。 所以,这次全球“缺芯潮”,反而对我们来说是一个绝佳的机遇。不过,美国肯定不会坐视我们抓住这次机会,把半导体产业发展上来。 于是,美国在4月初,就开始谋划拉上日韩,阻断我国半导体发展。根据日本媒体报道,日本与美国将会达成半导体大规模的联合投资。 同时,拜登强调:要借助近期的“缺芯潮”,加大投资半导体产业的力度,在与中国的半导体竞赛中取胜。 看到这的小伙伴可能有点懵逼,美国要与中国半导体竞赛?只有互为对手才会有竞赛,我们的半导体不是被美国吊打吗?其实不然。 看似强大的美国半导体,在产业去中心化后,半导体产业的全球份额是一直在下降,反之我们是一直在上升。并且,在这次主缺的成熟进程工艺,我国已基本实现了自主可控。 也就是说,我国的半导体产","listText":"——趋势哥出品,必是精品—— “缺芯潮”还在愈演愈烈,越来越多车企被迫停产: 这一轮“缺芯潮”的原因是【需求端增加】,同时【供给端减少】,可谓戴维斯双击。 【需求端增加】:智能穿戴、电子设备、智能电车等等工业新产品的诞生,对芯片需求陡增。 简单来说,就是现在和未来,我们身边的工业品会越来越智能化,它们对芯片的需求也越来越多。 【供给端减少】: 疫情影响,停工停产; 天灾人祸影响,比如:法国工人ba工、美国大雪、日本地震火灾; 产能配置影响,比如:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> 把大部分产能都给了高利润的手机芯片,汽车、电子等分不出产能了。 以上因素,导致了“缺芯潮”的爆发。 如果在细分一下,所谓“缺芯潮”,主要是指【28nm及28nm以上】的中低端汽车、电子芯片。 28nm以下(不含)的高工艺芯片,以手机为主,主要产能集中在台积电手里;受制于美国,大陆的晶圆厂短期难以在这个领域有所突破。而28nm以上(含)的成熟工艺,大陆已基本自主可控。 所以,这次全球“缺芯潮”,反而对我们来说是一个绝佳的机遇。不过,美国肯定不会坐视我们抓住这次机会,把半导体产业发展上来。 于是,美国在4月初,就开始谋划拉上日韩,阻断我国半导体发展。根据日本媒体报道,日本与美国将会达成半导体大规模的联合投资。 同时,拜登强调:要借助近期的“缺芯潮”,加大投资半导体产业的力度,在与中国的半导体竞赛中取胜。 看到这的小伙伴可能有点懵逼,美国要与中国半导体竞赛?只有互为对手才会有竞赛,我们的半导体不是被美国吊打吗?其实不然。 看似强大的美国半导体,在产业去中心化后,半导体产业的全球份额是一直在下降,反之我们是一直在上升。并且,在这次主缺的成熟进程工艺,我国已基本实现了自主可控。 也就是说,我国的半导体产","text":"——趋势哥出品,必是精品—— “缺芯潮”还在愈演愈烈,越来越多车企被迫停产: 这一轮“缺芯潮”的原因是【需求端增加】,同时【供给端减少】,可谓戴维斯双击。 【需求端增加】:智能穿戴、电子设备、智能电车等等工业新产品的诞生,对芯片需求陡增。 简单来说,就是现在和未来,我们身边的工业品会越来越智能化,它们对芯片的需求也越来越多。 【供给端减少】: 疫情影响,停工停产; 天灾人祸影响,比如:法国工人ba工、美国大雪、日本地震火灾; 产能配置影响,比如:$台积电(TSM)$ 把大部分产能都给了高利润的手机芯片,汽车、电子等分不出产能了。 以上因素,导致了“缺芯潮”的爆发。 如果在细分一下,所谓“缺芯潮”,主要是指【28nm及28nm以上】的中低端汽车、电子芯片。 28nm以下(不含)的高工艺芯片,以手机为主,主要产能集中在台积电手里;受制于美国,大陆的晶圆厂短期难以在这个领域有所突破。而28nm以上(含)的成熟工艺,大陆已基本自主可控。 所以,这次全球“缺芯潮”,反而对我们来说是一个绝佳的机遇。不过,美国肯定不会坐视我们抓住这次机会,把半导体产业发展上来。 于是,美国在4月初,就开始谋划拉上日韩,阻断我国半导体发展。根据日本媒体报道,日本与美国将会达成半导体大规模的联合投资。 同时,拜登强调:要借助近期的“缺芯潮”,加大投资半导体产业的力度,在与中国的半导体竞赛中取胜。 看到这的小伙伴可能有点懵逼,美国要与中国半导体竞赛?只有互为对手才会有竞赛,我们的半导体不是被美国吊打吗?其实不然。 看似强大的美国半导体,在产业去中心化后,半导体产业的全球份额是一直在下降,反之我们是一直在上升。并且,在这次主缺的成熟进程工艺,我国已基本实现了自主可控。 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蚂蚁十日:从马云喊话监管开始,以蚂蚁暂缓上市结束\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-03 22:49 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VJ7U3kS2Eh2BOYE4B1YEAA><strong>北京商报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月3日,又将是个不眠夜,只差临门一脚的蚂蚁上市,再次生变。当日晚间,上交所及港交所突发公告:暂缓蚂蚁上市。短短数字,足以引发舆论震荡,牵动蚂蚁神经。事实上,就在暂缓上市的前一夜,蚂蚁被监管多面“镣铐”,一面是央行、银保监会等四部门罕见联合约谈,一面是网络小贷新规处处“扼喉”,此外还有官员直指“花呗”“借呗”侵害消费者权益。监管五指山拍下之前,蚂蚁IPO也曾进行得火热,网上发行有效申购户数516...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VJ7U3kS2Eh2BOYE4B1YEAA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0c7c58ed9ebd40d173fc04d83798449","relate_stocks":{"06688":"蚂蚁集团"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VJ7U3kS2Eh2BOYE4B1YEAA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119290564","content_text":"11月3日,又将是个不眠夜,只差临门一脚的蚂蚁上市,再次生变。当日晚间,上交所及港交所突发公告:暂缓蚂蚁上市。短短数字,足以引发舆论震荡,牵动蚂蚁神经。事实上,就在暂缓上市的前一夜,蚂蚁被监管多面“镣铐”,一面是央行、银保监会等四部门罕见联合约谈,一面是网络小贷新规处处“扼喉”,此外还有官员直指“花呗”“借呗”侵害消费者权益。监管五指山拍下之前,蚂蚁IPO也曾进行得火热,网上发行有效申购户数516万户,创科创板新高;申购金额19.05万亿元,刷A股最高纪录;拟筹2312亿元,成为全球最大IPO……每一个数据、每一次进展,都足以成为媒体关注的头条、公众热议的焦点。一面是IPO屡次“创纪录”,一面是监管风暴强势压顶,自马云外滩金融峰会喊话十日以来,蚂蚁屡次被置于风口浪尖,可谓跌宕起伏。投资者最为关切的是,监管紧箍下,蚂蚁IPO能否重启,又该如何进一步规范业务,仍待蚂蚁给出答案。(图片来源:视觉中国)01沪港两地IPO被紧急“熄火”按照原定计划,蚂蚁将于11月5日在沪港两地同步挂牌上市。为了这个全球最大IPO,蚂蚁已准备良久。从8月25日公布招股文件、9月18日闪电过会、10月26日揭开发行价悬念,再至10月29日A股火热打新,在业内看来,蚂蚁IPO的每一步都走出了“加速度”。然而上市前夕,敲钟未至,蚂蚁却先收到了来自监管的“大礼包”。11月3日晚,上交所首页公告称,决定蚂蚁公司暂缓上市。理由为,蚂蚁实际控制人及董事长、总经理被有关部门联合进行监管约谈,且公司也报告所处的金融科技监管环境发生变化等重大事项。该重大事项可能导致蚂蚁不符合发行上市条件或者信息披露要求。与此同时,港交所也公告称,暂缓蚂蚁H股上市。该突发缘起于11月2日晚,据证监会官方发布,当日,央行、银保监会、证监会、国家外汇管理局联合对蚂蚁实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明进行了监管约谈。巧合的是,约谈一事公布后不到半小时,银保监会官方再发消息,就《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法(征求意见稿)》公开征求意见(以下简称“新规”)。其中,无论是从原则上禁止跨省展业规定,还是联合贷款出资不得低于三成等条例来看,均足以对蚂蚁小贷业务构成重击。要注意的是,目前,小贷业务是蚂蚁主营业务之一。据招股书披露,蚂蚁营收的增长主要来源于数字金融科技平台,该平台又由微贷科技平台、理财科技平台、保险科技三大块构成,其中,微贷科技平台以39.41%的占比居首,也就意味着,贷款类业务在蚂蚁的细分收入中占据了绝对地位。原本火热进行的A+H股IPO突然“熄火”,业内对此颇为唏嘘。而投资者“吃瓜”之余,最为关心的是,上市暂缓后,蚂蚁是否还有继续上市可能?针对暂缓上市一事,北京商报记者向蚂蚁方面采访,但截至发稿未获得回应。在部分人士看来,目前,蚂蚁后续能否继续上市暂无定论,但可以预见的是,暂缓上市、监管约谈和网络小贷新规或将改变蚂蚁的估值逻辑。正如麻袋研究院高级研究员苏筱芮所称,如果单纯不符合信息披露要求,按照监管规定披露以后还可以继续上市;但如果被监管认定为“不符合发行上市条件”,那么后续走向存疑。金融行业资深分析师王蓬博则进一步称,上交所要求蚂蚁进行风险说明,且要求对上市所处金融科技监管环境改变做出评估,完全合理合规,从保护股民,提示风险的出发点也应该暂缓。但暂缓不等于退出,相信只要符合上交所条件,仍然有继续上市的可能。不过从大的环境来看,可能会改变蚂蚁的上市进程,包括相对应的估值逻辑。此外,联储证券研究员马炜也认为,尽管上交所暂缓蚂蚁上市,但补足披露信息后,蚂蚁或可继续上市。一方面,蚂蚁在上市前,接受最强的监管,也是题中应有之意。蚂蚁是中国最大的线上消费信贷和小微经营者信贷平台,对金融科技的监管绕不开蚂蚁,对小贷市场的监管同样绕不过蚂蚁。此次监管风暴可以说因蚂蚁而起,也可以说对整个行业的监管风暴。不过,也有观点认为,尽管上市暂缓,但后续继续上市毫无悬念。正如券商投行资深人士何南野指出,上市暂缓,一是为了呼应四部门约谈后的监管精神,对蚂蚁上市进行更加严格的审核,二是近期一系列新政策的出台,对蚂蚁的经营造成了一定的不确定性,客观上也需要暂缓,并充分向投资者披露风险后,才方便推进下一步的工作。“从目前看,蚂蚁上市是无悬念的,只要充分披露风险,并积极根据监管精神进行内部整改,上市还是没有任何问题的。”何南野称。02花呗、借呗等产品被戴“紧箍”上市前两日被紧急叫停,四大重量级部门联合约谈,此案例鲜少有之。在业内看来,蚂蚁此次遭遇的监管风暴,导火索在于10月24日马云在外滩金融峰会上的仗“蚁”直言,他喊话国内金融监管大谈创新,批判银行是当铺思想,称巴塞尔协议是“老人俱乐部”,可谓是语惊四座,也在金融行业引发了巨大争议。马云发言十日来,蚂蚁已被屡次置于风口。监管“高规格”约谈,小贷业务再受约束,一切看似突然,但实则早已有迹可循。一个重要的信号是,10月31日,国务院金融稳定发展委员会专题会议强调,“既要鼓励创新、弘扬企业家精神,也要加强监管,依法将金融活动全面纳入监管,有效防范风险”。虽未点名,但在业内看来也有对马云言辞的隔空回应之意。与此同时,央行行长易纲近期也在多个场合公开表态大型科技公司创新风险。作为金融游戏规则的改变者,大型科技公司虽然提高了金融服务水平,改善了偏远地区的服务需求,但个人隐私保护、企业商业秘密保护、数据鸿沟等问题却亟待解决。值得一提的是,银保监会消费者权益保护局局长郭武平11月2日也发文称,无论是持牌金融机构还是新兴金融科技公司,都必须保护好金融消费者权益。但相对而言,对于金融科技公司的消费者权益保护,目前缺乏明确规则和要求,出现了监管套利行为,与持牌金融机构形成不当竞争,最终难以有效保障金融消费者权益。郭武平还指出,金融机构与科技公司合作中,资金大部分来源于金融机构,但是金融科技公司利用寡头垄断地位收取过高费用,增加了金融消费者成本。此外,郭武平点名道,在收费方面,金融科技公司缺乏统一标准,一般高于持牌金融机构。比如“花呗”与银行信用卡业务基本相同,但分期手续费高于银行,与其普惠金融理念不符,实际上是“普而不惠”。蚂蚁如今面临的监管挑战着实不小。正如苏筱芮所称,网络小贷牌照、消费金融牌照由银保监会管,金融控股公司归央行管,而蚂蚁目前的主要风险点就在网络小贷和金控这两个业态上,尤其是金控这块还有很多配套细则尚未公布,监管后续的手段中还有很多可发挥的空间。监管加码,对蚂蚁构成实质性冲击,尤其是花呗、借呗类业务将戴“紧箍”。王蓬博进一步指出,除了监管挑战和个人数据隐私保护外,蚂蚁赖以生存的支付基础也将面临挑战。如果互联互通继续推进,类似美团、滴滴等场景掌控力度较强的平台,如果发力支付闭环,蚂蚁的用户和商户基础就有可能受到挑战,这些都可能会对蚂蚁的业务产生影响,进而对蚂蚁的利润增速造成冲击。不过,目前网络小贷新规还在征求意见阶段,一切仍尚有变数。马炜认为,蚂蚁和监管的博弈仍未结束。不过,所有的新金融归根到底还是落在金融上,金融监管的创新是有边界的,蚂蚁必须接受和融入现代金融监管的主流标准。要解决金融科技创新的风险,业务的发展和创新都应当遵循金融监管的规则,在不超过金融监管边界的前提下规范创新。03微贷科技业务模式或将进行调整实际上,蚂蚁此前也曾在招股书中作出相关风险提示,包括“公司的微贷科技平台无法维持高速增长的风险”“公司的微贷科技平台业务依赖与金融机构合作的风险”等。具体来看,如遇到未能完全合规经营、无法保持合作金融机构对平台的信任、无法达到合作金融机构的预期、无法有效监控信贷风险及提供催收服务等情况时,蚂蚁将面临合作金融机构数量减少等境况。除了业务过度依赖合作机构外,蚂蚁称,其互助项目尚不作为保险产品被监管,但是不排除未来监管机构对类似相互宝的产品实施监管,从而增加相互宝产品合规的复杂性并大幅提高合规成本。无法有效保障数据安全和隐私保护亦是一大挑战。蚂蚁称,公司在业务过程中收集并处理大量用户信息,并对用户信息进行分析,形成用户画像、人群特征等信息。如果公司的用户信息被第三方不当获取、使用或披露,公司将可能面临消费者、商家、合作金融机构及其他平台参与方流失、对公司平台失去信心及信任的风险,甚至可能面临诉讼、监管调查或罚款,这种情况将严重损害公司的声誉,并对公司的业务、财务状况及经营成果造成不利影响。“正如蚂蚁所言,其业务高度依赖与金融机构合作。”苏筱芮指出,后续,蚂蚁可加大纯科技业务的比重,尽快将蚂蚁链等规模化、商业化,用真正的技术驱动来回应市场对科技公司身份的质疑;此外,可在金融监管框架内继续发挥自身的牌照作用,接受持牌机构存在严格杠杆率约束的现实,按照过往持牌金融机构的标准来继续展业。“在IPO之前监管落地,实际上是对蚂蚁未来的不确定性有了确定的说法。”王蓬博进一步称,今后,很多中小网贷公司运营门槛将被抬高,但借款人需求依然存在,这部分需求只能由蚂蚁这种被规范以后仍有资金能力的机构来操作,这反而有利于市场集中。当蚂蚁已经成长为今天的体量,业务拥抱监管才是一个正确的方向。“具体来看,业务方向上肯定要首先落实监管要求,在此前出台的各项法规框架下合规经营。对目前监管质疑较大的数据和用户保护问题要加强重视。费率问题也要有一个明显的普惠方向的改善,只有真正对消费者让利,而不是凭借场景触达优势绑定。”在王蓬博看来,若蚂蚁的优势在于触达、让金融更便捷,那后续如何保持这种原发优势是其需要考虑的方向。此外,对支付行业的竞争仍然要保持敏感,如何面对行业竞争,利用科技手段去开拓更多的信用场景和发展B端企业服务,助力实体经济产业数字化转型才是真正值得探讨的方向。零壹研究院院长于百程则认为,蚂蚁一方面需要重新申请全国牌照,另一方面联合贷款出资比例等造成的业务杠杆限制,对于其业务增长的影响也可能最为直接。待新规正式落地,蚂蚁的微贷科技业务模式将进行调整。不过综合看,蚂蚁若上市后资金储备丰富,后续也可能采取其他比如消费金融公司牌照,或者用纯科技服务的方式进行微贷科技业务。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":977255729,"gmtCreate":1601617367761,"gmtModify":1703824918937,"author":{"id":"3546910092168431","authorId":"3546910092168431","authorIdStr":"3546910092168431","name":"兄得莫冲动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba1a36775ba8bea0c941b6179be6cd60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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