立夏五月的个人主页 - 老虎社区

立夏五月

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2020-09-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$50日线还能破。咱就在280附近见[微笑]

2020-07-16

$蔚来(NIO)$把下方缺口补了呗

2020-09-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$400？360？320？300？[财迷]

2020-09-16

$特斯拉(TSLA)$又要10个点？拉高出货[微笑]

2020-09-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$小特特什么时候到450啊[看涨]

2020-08-18

$苹果(AAPL)$几号拆股啊

2020-08-18

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 是不是老巴建仓了黄金股...

2020-09-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$老牛逼了。以为今天410都算多了[捂脸]

2020-09-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$月底能100吗[冷漠] 敢吗

2020-09-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$空军们干嘛呢。加油砸啊。这405怎么回事[呆住]

2020-09-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$这过山车玩的[开心]

2020-09-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$这是跳票了吗

2020-09-18

$特斯拉(TSLA)$好歹400/360啊这价我一点想加仓的欲望都没

2020-09-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$我以为会到365。牛逼啊

2020-09-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$加油空头门。砸到400以下

2020-09-02

$苹果(AAPL)$3万亿的苹果股价大概多少

2020-06-08

当然继续📈啦。下跌5%我倒立拉稀

非农数据“乌龙”后，本周市场怎么走？

2020-06-05

📈就完事了。要能下跌5%我倒立拉稀

单挑非农，你需要这份秘籍

2020-04-22

$美国原油ETF(USO)$又停了

2020-04-08

$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$空军何在。速来助我

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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08:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"非农数据“乌龙”后，本周市场怎么走？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2041066399","media":"格隆汇","summary":"美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）在数据公布后又发布了一个声明，解释新冠肺炎疫情对5月非农数据的影响，同时承认数据存在误差。","content":"<p><span>周末金融市场最劲爆的是</span><b>美国5月非农就业人口增加250.9万人，失业率从4月的14.7%下降到13.3%。预期是失业人口还将继续增加，失业率达到20%左右。</b><span>受消息刺激美国三大股指大幅走高，纳指更是创下历史新高。惊喜之后还有惊喜，</span><span><b>美国劳工部统计局（BLS）表示，数据统计存在误差。</b></span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5e87425f96bf8ea94704c701242ef5\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"451\"></p>\n<p><span><b>数据好到自己都不信</b></span></p>\n<p>据报道，美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）在数据公布后又发布了一个声明，解释新冠肺炎疫情对5月非农数据的影响，同时承认数据存在误差。BLS发言人斯特恩伯格（Gary Steinberg） 确认，<b><span>劳工部的统计数据存在“错误分类误差”（Misclassification Error），没有将”停薪留职“人员归类为失业。</span></b></p>\n<p>斯特恩伯格根据BLS当天公布的声明回应，称如果将那些“有工作”但“因为一些原因没在工作”（not at work for other reason)的人也归类到“失业”类别的话，<b><span>5月美国的真实失业率将达到约16.4%，</span></b>比官方当天公布的13.3%要高。新冠疫情爆发以来，停薪留职是美国许多公司采取的削减成本的对策。统计局表示，<b><span>截至5月中旬，在总共失业的2100万美国人中，有1500万人（约占73%的比重）是处于停薪留职状态</span></b>，虽然停薪留职的本意是公司希望在经济好转后再召回员工，但现实是，经济复苏的过程或许并没有那么快，许多被停薪留职的人可能面临的是无限期的失业。劳工统计局称，由于人为分层抽样错误，可能严重低估了被归类为“临时裁员”的工人人数。<b><span>此前，BLS的数据也发生过计算误差的情况，</span></b>4月官方公布的失业率为14.7%，但后来BLS表示，如果将“错误分类误差”的因素计算在内的话，当月的真实失业率应在20%左右。美国前总统奥巴马领导下的经济顾问委员会（Council of Economic advisors）主席詹森•弗曼（Jason Furman）和哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院（Harvard's Kennedy School of Government）的同事威尔逊•鲍威尔三世（Wilson Powell III）计算出，<b><span>当你把这个统计误差抹去的话，实际失业率为17.1%。</span></b>就在劳工部统计局公布就业数据前两天，<span>私人薪资公司ADP取消了每月的员工参与调查。</span>通常，ADP的调查结果至少大致跟踪了BLS报告中的结果。不过，<span><b>这一次ADP显示，5月份私人薪资就业人数减少270万。相比之下，BLS的数据显示，私人薪资就业人数增加了310万。在这项统计中，近一半新增工作来自餐馆等休闲行业。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afeb2bf9aee1ab326e30d5526c2cae69\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><span><b>近期美国失业数据已经“失真”</b></span></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">国信证券</a>表示，美国劳工部自3月以来的就业报告中均指出：被调查者若由于疫情影响暂性脱离工作岗位，应填报为“暂时性失业”，但很显然并非所有调查者均按此填报，许多这种状况的劳动者填报为“被雇佣，但由于其他原因暂时停工”。根据美国劳工部估算，若将这部分劳动者划定为失业，<b><span>则3月、4月、5月的实际失业率将比公布数值分别提高1、5、3个百分点。</span></b>因此，由于疫情对就业的扰动，叠加美国政府对就业市场的支持政策，近期美国失业率数据已些许“失真”。从历史上看，非暂时性失业在劳动力人口的占比与失业率走势几乎完全同步，与4月相比，5月美国非暂时性失业人数增加了38.5万人，在劳动力人口的占比由4月的1.6%提升至1.9%，<b><span>这表明本月失业率的下降主要缘于经济解封，而非就业景气度的改善。这得益于巨额的财政和货币宽松，</span></b>当前美国企业债务风险尚未充分显露，随着宽松政策的边际递减，未来企业债违约大概率会增加，将对经济产生新一轮冲击，从而不利于就业市场的持续改善。在复工推进之下，我们认为短期内美国失业率可能延续小幅下降，但中长期就业状况很难持续大幅改善。</p>\n<p><span><b>看经济数据你就“输”了</b></span></p>\n<p>BLS公布数据存在误差时美股并没有收盘，但是三大股指涨幅丝毫不受影响。现在美股涨势已经完全脱离经济基本面，<b><span>数据好了要涨，数据差了美联储会出手”救“，更要涨。</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec448be4b2986196d804ca6d0f6b617\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"596\"></p>\n<p>安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃尔-埃利安表示，许多人对股价与现实脱节的纪录感到失望，<span><b>但实际上这是一个可笑的心态。</b></span>“我理解那些押注道德风险的人。我理解那些押注美联储将提供支持的人。我不这样做。我认为那不是投资的好方法。我宁愿根据基本面进行投资“埃尔-埃利安说：“对那些人而言，基本面发生什么并不重要。企业盈利如何并不重要。经济增长如何并不重要，<b><span>因为美联储会买我想买的东西，这就是目前市场的心态。”</span></b>当前美国经济正经历比2008年更为严重的经济衰退，而不断增加的债务和美联储持续印刷美元可能意味着需要更长的时间来实现利率正常化，甚至引发严重的通胀风险。</p>\n<p><b><span>尽管美国各州陆续复工，但受疫情冲击以及抗议事件蔓延的影响，复工复产进度缓慢；</span></b>加之，失业人口中有近7成失业补助高于其失业前收入，尤其是餐饮服务和医疗助理等职业更为突出，这也会对复工产生拖累，经济短期复苏难。</p>\n<p>往前看，5月ISM和Markit制造业PMI指数仅小幅恢复至43.1和39.8，仍大幅低于枯荣线；据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>大数据统计，截止5月29日，美国零售活动、交通运输以及办公活动仍较基期下滑23%、36%和37%，生产、需求疲软态势加剧，美国二季度经济将进一步负增长。截止5月底美国周度经济指数再度下滑至-10.1%，4月以来平均跌幅为10%，经济将陷入衰退。</p>\n<p><b><span>现在美联储已经把将推向危机的政策推向了极致。</span></b>现在利率再次为零。一些分析人士说，负利率将是下一个目标，尽管鲍威尔此前重申不会使用这一工具。</p>\n<p><span><b>本周怎么走</b></span></p>\n<p>万神殿集团首席宏观经济学伊恩·谢泼德森在一份研究报告中写道，<b><span>劳工统计局的月度就业报告与其他数据相抵触是一个“谜”。</span></b></p>\n<p>市场预计，未来一周内标普500指数年内涨幅也将转为正值。目前，该指数年内跌幅仅为1.14%。</p>\n<p>汇市方面，美元指数上周一路下行并跌破97关口。美债、日元、黄金等传统避险资产也被市场看空。截至上周五收盘，纽约金价跌破1690美元关口。</p>\n<p>债市方面，美3个月期和10年期国债收益率利差一度拉开近80个基点，收益率曲线陡峭显示出债市对经济前景的乐观情绪改善。</p>\n<p>在欧洲市场，法国CAC 40指数、德国DAX指数累计涨逾10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数上涨6.71%。亚洲市场方面，日经225指数本周累计上涨4.49%，韩国综指累计大涨7.5%，澳大利亚标普200指数上涨4.22%。</p>\n<p>就政策刺激而言，中商智库首席研究员李建军认为，当前各国经济需要非常规政策刺激。例如，各国需要以补助形式给企业直接的现金支持，并采取非常规的量化宽松政策、购买企业债券等给企业以资金支持。此外，如何确保释放的资金更好更快地为实体经济服务而不是在金融体系里运转也是各国需要面对的问题。</p>\n<p>上周，欧洲央行曾超预期扩大宽松政策力度。本周，美联储议息决定将会公布。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>(28.11, 1.33, 4.97%)全球经济主管埃森·哈里斯预计，美联储官员可能会给出更多关于宽松政策的前瞻性指引。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>非农数据“乌龙”后，本周市场怎么走？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n非农数据“乌龙”后，本周市场怎么走？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-08 08:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/379640><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周末金融市场最劲爆的是美国5月非农就业人口增加250.9万人，失业率从4月的14.7%下降到13.3%。预期是失业人口还将继续增加，失业率达到20%左右。受消息刺激美国三大股指大幅走高，纳指更是创下历史新高。惊喜之后还有惊喜，美国劳工部统计局（BLS）表示，数据统计存在误差。\n数据好到自己都不信\n据报道，美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）在数据公布后又发布了一个声明，解释新冠肺炎疫情对5月非农数据的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/379640\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fc8b23b781bc79a14821182eb2b683","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/379640","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2041066399","content_text":"周末金融市场最劲爆的是美国5月非农就业人口增加250.9万人，失业率从4月的14.7%下降到13.3%。预期是失业人口还将继续增加，失业率达到20%左右。受消息刺激美国三大股指大幅走高，纳指更是创下历史新高。惊喜之后还有惊喜，美国劳工部统计局（BLS）表示，数据统计存在误差。\n数据好到自己都不信\n据报道，美国劳工部劳工统计局（BLS）在数据公布后又发布了一个声明，解释新冠肺炎疫情对5月非农数据的影响，同时承认数据存在误差。BLS发言人斯特恩伯格（Gary Steinberg） 确认，劳工部的统计数据存在“错误分类误差”（Misclassification Error），没有将”停薪留职“人员归类为失业。\n斯特恩伯格根据BLS当天公布的声明回应，称如果将那些“有工作”但“因为一些原因没在工作”（not at work for other reason)的人也归类到“失业”类别的话，5月美国的真实失业率将达到约16.4%，比官方当天公布的13.3%要高。新冠疫情爆发以来，停薪留职是美国许多公司采取的削减成本的对策。统计局表示，截至5月中旬，在总共失业的2100万美国人中，有1500万人（约占73%的比重）是处于停薪留职状态，虽然停薪留职的本意是公司希望在经济好转后再召回员工，但现实是，经济复苏的过程或许并没有那么快，许多被停薪留职的人可能面临的是无限期的失业。劳工统计局称，由于人为分层抽样错误，可能严重低估了被归类为“临时裁员”的工人人数。此前，BLS的数据也发生过计算误差的情况，4月官方公布的失业率为14.7%，但后来BLS表示，如果将“错误分类误差”的因素计算在内的话，当月的真实失业率应在20%左右。美国前总统奥巴马领导下的经济顾问委员会（Council of Economic advisors）主席詹森•弗曼（Jason Furman）和哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院（Harvard's Kennedy School of Government）的同事威尔逊•鲍威尔三世（Wilson Powell III）计算出，当你把这个统计误差抹去的话，实际失业率为17.1%。就在劳工部统计局公布就业数据前两天，私人薪资公司ADP取消了每月的员工参与调查。通常，ADP的调查结果至少大致跟踪了BLS报告中的结果。不过，这一次ADP显示，5月份私人薪资就业人数减少270万。相比之下，BLS的数据显示，私人薪资就业人数增加了310万。在这项统计中，近一半新增工作来自餐馆等休闲行业。\n\n近期美国失业数据已经“失真”\n国信证券表示，美国劳工部自3月以来的就业报告中均指出：被调查者若由于疫情影响暂性脱离工作岗位，应填报为“暂时性失业”，但很显然并非所有调查者均按此填报，许多这种状况的劳动者填报为“被雇佣，但由于其他原因暂时停工”。根据美国劳工部估算，若将这部分劳动者划定为失业，则3月、4月、5月的实际失业率将比公布数值分别提高1、5、3个百分点。因此，由于疫情对就业的扰动，叠加美国政府对就业市场的支持政策，近期美国失业率数据已些许“失真”。从历史上看，非暂时性失业在劳动力人口的占比与失业率走势几乎完全同步，与4月相比，5月美国非暂时性失业人数增加了38.5万人，在劳动力人口的占比由4月的1.6%提升至1.9%，这表明本月失业率的下降主要缘于经济解封，而非就业景气度的改善。这得益于巨额的财政和货币宽松，当前美国企业债务风险尚未充分显露，随着宽松政策的边际递减，未来企业债违约大概率会增加，将对经济产生新一轮冲击，从而不利于就业市场的持续改善。在复工推进之下，我们认为短期内美国失业率可能延续小幅下降，但中长期就业状况很难持续大幅改善。\n看经济数据你就“输”了\nBLS公布数据存在误差时美股并没有收盘，但是三大股指涨幅丝毫不受影响。现在美股涨势已经完全脱离经济基本面，数据好了要涨，数据差了美联储会出手”救“，更要涨。\n\n安联首席经济顾问穆罕默德·埃尔-埃利安表示，许多人对股价与现实脱节的纪录感到失望，但实际上这是一个可笑的心态。“我理解那些押注道德风险的人。我理解那些押注美联储将提供支持的人。我不这样做。我认为那不是投资的好方法。我宁愿根据基本面进行投资“埃尔-埃利安说：“对那些人而言，基本面发生什么并不重要。企业盈利如何并不重要。经济增长如何并不重要，因为美联储会买我想买的东西，这就是目前市场的心态。”当前美国经济正经历比2008年更为严重的经济衰退，而不断增加的债务和美联储持续印刷美元可能意味着需要更长的时间来实现利率正常化，甚至引发严重的通胀风险。\n尽管美国各州陆续复工，但受疫情冲击以及抗议事件蔓延的影响，复工复产进度缓慢；加之，失业人口中有近7成失业补助高于其失业前收入，尤其是餐饮服务和医疗助理等职业更为突出，这也会对复工产生拖累，经济短期复苏难。\n往前看，5月ISM和Markit制造业PMI指数仅小幅恢复至43.1和39.8，仍大幅低于枯荣线；据谷歌大数据统计，截止5月29日，美国零售活动、交通运输以及办公活动仍较基期下滑23%、36%和37%，生产、需求疲软态势加剧，美国二季度经济将进一步负增长。截止5月底美国周度经济指数再度下滑至-10.1%，4月以来平均跌幅为10%，经济将陷入衰退。\n现在美联储已经把将推向危机的政策推向了极致。现在利率再次为零。一些分析人士说，负利率将是下一个目标，尽管鲍威尔此前重申不会使用这一工具。\n本周怎么走\n万神殿集团首席宏观经济学伊恩·谢泼德森在一份研究报告中写道，劳工统计局的月度就业报告与其他数据相抵触是一个“谜”。\n市场预计，未来一周内标普500指数年内涨幅也将转为正值。目前，该指数年内跌幅仅为1.14%。\n汇市方面，美元指数上周一路下行并跌破97关口。美债、日元、黄金等传统避险资产也被市场看空。截至上周五收盘，纽约金价跌破1690美元关口。\n债市方面，美3个月期和10年期国债收益率利差一度拉开近80个基点，收益率曲线陡峭显示出债市对经济前景的乐观情绪改善。\n在欧洲市场，法国CAC 40指数、德国DAX指数累计涨逾10%，英国富时100指数上涨6.71%。亚洲市场方面，日经225指数本周累计上涨4.49%，韩国综指累计大涨7.5%，澳大利亚标普200指数上涨4.22%。\n就政策刺激而言，中商智库首席研究员李建军认为，当前各国经济需要非常规政策刺激。例如，各国需要以补助形式给企业直接的现金支持，并采取非常规的量化宽松政策、购买企业债券等给企业以资金支持。此外，如何确保释放的资金更好更快地为实体经济服务而不是在金融体系里运转也是各国需要面对的问题。\n上周，欧洲央行曾超预期扩大宽松政策力度。本周，美联储议息决定将会公布。美国银行(28.11, 1.33, 4.97%)全球经济主管埃森·哈里斯预计，美联储官员可能会给出更多关于宽松政策的前瞻性指引。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958554618,"gmtCreate":1591331072434,"gmtModify":1704195348896,"author":{"id":"3545287895487362","authorId":"3545287895487362","authorIdStr":"3545287895487362","name":"立夏五月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"📈就完事了。要能下跌5%我倒立拉稀","listText":"📈就完事了。要能下跌5%我倒立拉稀","text":"📈就完事了。要能下跌5%我倒立拉稀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958554618","repostId":"1167770090","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167770090","pubTimestamp":1591323044,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167770090?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-05 10:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"单挑非农，你需要这份秘籍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167770090","media":"金十数据","summary":"数据的威力已经回来，这次的非农会不会成为变盘拐点？\n周三ADP出炉后市场的剧烈反应证明，数据的威力已经回来了！\n美国就业市场的至暗时刻是否真的迎来了转折点？真的仅凭一份数据就能预判美国经济前景吗？周五","content":"<p>数据的威力已经回来，这次的非农会不会成为变盘拐点？</p>\n<p>周三ADP出炉后市场的剧烈反应证明，数据的威力已经回来了！</p>\n<p>美国就业市场的至暗时刻是否真的迎来了转折点？真的仅凭一份数据就能预判美国经济前景吗？周五的非农行情是否已经被小非农提前预演？我们又该如何理性看待周五的非农数据？下面，金十数据带您理一理。</p>\n<p><span><b>01、</b></span><span><b><u>行情梳理</u></b></span></p>\n<p>周三优于预期的“小非农”ADP数据公布后，市场乐观情绪被燃爆，黄金持续下挫，暴跌近30美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e7ad3a645e36bae467d4373ac5621ac\" tg-width=\"1250\" tg-height=\"666\"></p>\n<p>美股三大股指持续攀升，全线收涨，本周以来道指期货已经涨超1000点。根据金融服务公司LPL Financial编制的数据，标普500指数美东时间周三（6月3日）创下历史上最大的50天涨幅，高达37.7%，收盘价较2月中旬的纪录高位仅低8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c500b2681b59b2a9929b4a26ed2211\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"547\"></p>\n<p>美元指数被指失去避险需求，连跌7天。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd4481d58035a4df698062c521b5aff\" tg-width=\"1092\" tg-height=\"561\"></p>\n<p>可见，眼下市场聚焦经济复苏的迹象，经济数据的力量不可谓不大。交易员们也纷纷猜测，本周五晚公布的5月非农数据会优于预期（-800万）。对于这份非农数据，投资者们切忌被一叶障目。</p>\n<p><b><span>02、</span></b><b><span><u>精选分析</u></span></b></p>\n<p><span><b>ADP大幅好于预期，非农就真的值得兴奋吗？</b></span></p>\n<p>周三的ADP录得-276万，预期为-900万。尽管数据出炉后，市场信心大受提振，但对于5月ADP的改善之大，华尔街的分析师们却表示莫名其妙，他们找不到数据快速改善的直接原因。</p>\n<p>整体而言，ADP数据与3月疫情爆发以来的政府数据反映的趋势并不一致。经过3月和4月超千万级别的岗位流失后，MarketWatch调查的经济学家们预期5月将再减少740万个岗位。</p>\n<p>宏观经济咨询机构Pantheon Macroeconomics的经济学家Ian Shepherdson警告投资者：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “ADP用于计算就业数据的模型有问题，投资者要做好双向准备。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>所以，<b>5月ADP的实质好坏令人质疑，对非农的前瞻预示作用自然大打折扣。</b></p>\n<p><span><b>失业峰值真的过去了吗？</b></span></p>\n<p>乐观者认为，随着各州放松限制、企业重新开业，美国就业市场出现了早期复苏迹象。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为，美国失业率高峰可能已在5月出现。ADP就业数据公司副总裁则认为，失业人数可能已在4月份达到峰值。</p>\n<p>高盛预计，失业率下半年会出现相当快的下降，部分原因是大多数新失业的工人只是处于临时解雇状态，而不是永久性的裁员。但也有经济学家预计，许多企业仍料将破产，因此临时解雇的工人不太可能重新找到工作。</p>\n<p>另外，阻碍工人重返岗位的还有政府的疫情响应措施。据芝加哥大学贝克尔弗里德曼研究所对CARES法案的研究显示，68%的失业人口得到的失业补助要高于失业前的收入。在过于慷慨的失业救济之下，可能很多人不愿重返工作岗位，从而影响到就业恢复和经济复苏的步伐。</p>\n<p>而且，一份调查显示，与疫情相关的失业救济申请中有近33％仍未支付。部分分析师认为，如果不能在全国范围内扩大救济发放，可能会延长这场危机，并造成社会动荡。</p>\n<p>但这种不可持续的帮扶，也加重了财政负担。截至5月底，美国财政部已在三个月内支付了1460亿美元的失业救济，这相当于2019全年的支出总和。</p>\n<p>后续失业救济能否继续发放，影响的不仅仅是美国经济的复苏，更可能影响社会稳定。</p>\n<p><span><b>警惕第二波失业潮！</b></span></p>\n<p>除了已经失去的岗位难以恢复之外，还要小心第二波失业潮。</p>\n<p>就在“小非农”公布当天，外媒经济学家Yelena Shulyatyeva警告，情况又将发生变化，因为“第二波失业潮正在袭来”，<b>这一次受影响更大的将是200万至600万名高薪白领工人</b>，“3月和4月的大规模岗位丧失产生的外溢效应将破坏数百万个白领岗位”。</p>\n<p>至今为止，受疫情冲击最大的是低薪工人。在4月份减少的2000万个工作岗位中，有近一半来自零售业、餐饮业和酒店业的服务人员。但接下来各个行业恐怕都无法幸免，如餐馆和酒店的高级管理人员，以及房地产和金融行业的员工。这也将削弱美国经济短期内迅速反弹的前景。Shulyatyeva称：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “美国就业市场好转之前先会变得更糟，白领这一次将受到最大冲击。即使州和企业重新开放，我们也有可能看到第二波裁员，因为劳动力市场变化往往落后于经济活动。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>外媒经济学家Katia Dmitrieva也警告称，尽管第二轮裁员的数量可能比不上第一轮，但仍将带来巨大的经济冲击，因为中产阶级在内的人群也受到冲击，而这些人推动可自由支配支出，是美国主要的经济增长引擎。</p>\n<p>因此，“V形”复苏的可能性很小。</p>\n<p><span><b>经济学家们坚持悲观的非农预测</b></span></p>\n<p>或许是基于以上原因，优于预期的ADP数据并没有说服大多数华尔街经济学家修改他们对非农数据的悲观估计。</p>\n<p>周三ADP公布后，外媒调查的71家企业中，仅有4家的经济学家调整了他们的就业人口预测：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 最乐观分析师是来自Evercore ISI的斯坦·史普利（Stan Shipley），他对预测数据做出了最大的向上调整。他现在预计，劳工部周五的报告将显示，上个月净失去了500万个工作岗位，而在ADP发布之前，他估计减少了1000万个工作岗位；Natixis北美有限责任公司的经济学家特洛伊·卢特卡（Troy Ludtka）将5月非农预期从-1155万调整至-590万；First Trust Advisors从-550万调整至-450万；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> USA Inc.的Michael Brown从-765万调整到-720万；\n</blockquote>\n<p>但大多数经济学家坚持认为，ADP的算法不同，并且与政府的每月非农数据没有直接关系。调查显示，5月份非农的中位数保持在-800万。Principal Global Investors的首席策略师Seema Shah表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “未来完全有可能出现一个关键时点，第二波失业和长期的企业倒闭将考验市场情绪。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><span><b>非农行情是否已经提前上演？</b></span></p>\n<p>另外，就算这次非农真的释放乐观信号，市场的上涨反应可能已经在周三ADP出炉后部分完成。因为，尽管经济远还没开始复苏，但投资者们不愿错过提前入场的机会。</p>\n<p>正如施罗德研究与分析团队的策略师肖恩·马科维兹（Sean Markowicz）表示，大多数坏消息在我们进入4月份之前就已经在市场上反映出来，因为投资者甚至在经济衰退尚未发生之前就已经预料到了。他补充说：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “出于同样的原因，他们也抓住了复苏的时机。在官方经济数据发布之前，市场就已经采取了行动。这就是我们看到股价反弹的原因。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>但如果非农数据不及预期，市场情绪反转，变盘之快可能让人措手不及。毕竟华尔街的大空头们早已虎视眈眈，这段时间的空头布局也十分猖獗：</p>\n<blockquote>\n E-mini标普500指数期货非商业头寸的净空仓再度大增，规模已经堪比2015年末石油危机和制造业衰退时期；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>证实了“聪明钱”的做空股市趋势，其“私人”高净值客户已经连续7周做空股市，而且上周的做空规模为6月19日以来最大；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>最近的一份报告显示，其对冲基金客户持有的欧元Stoxx 50期货净空头头寸约达400亿美元；专业投资者持续抛售股票并购入黄金。美银美林的Michael Hartnett在报告中指出，过去四周资金独爱黄金。\n</blockquote>\n<p><span><b>除了非农，还有更重要的事情</b></span></p>\n<p>大家都知道，不管行情怎么走，分析师总能找到解释的理由。毕竟，眼下市场有很多远比非农更加紧迫、更加复杂的风险因素：</p>\n<p><b><span>1、疫情二次爆发的风险</span></b></p>\n<p>鉴于美国国内形势，人群正在大规模聚集。美国外科医生杰罗姆·亚当斯（Jerome Adams）表示，“我们有充分的理由相信，新冠病毒可能再次大规模爆发”。</p>\n<p>景顺集团首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜•胡珀（Kristina Hooper）说：“我们必须担心感染可能再次爆发。这些抗议活动中的任何一场都可能是一场超级传播活动。”</p>\n<p>新冠疫情如果卷土重来，美国各州重新开封经济的计划将不得不取消。</p>\n<p><b><span>2、美联储利好效应正接近极限</span></b></p>\n<p>新加坡对冲基金戴蒙亚洲资本（Dymon Asia Capital）的创始合伙人Danny Yong表示，投资者很快就会发现，所谓的“美联储看跌期权”（Fed put）——即美联储将出手支持市场的概念，可能正接近极限。他说：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “有些人认为美联储的非常规措施是无限的，但事实并非如此。现在的问题是‘特朗普看跌期权’，他还能推动多少刺激措施？我认为总统将受到众议院民主党人的制约。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span>3、市场脆弱性已经接近极限</span></b></p>\n<p>如今，市场与基本面和现实情况史无前例地脱节，复杂的国际形势、央行的风险操纵、投资者的蜂拥而入以及交易的低流动性导致市场脆弱性上升。现在的市场已经被算法、机器以及不自觉的散户所占据。</p>\n<p>相反，越来越多的专业投资者都拒绝参与这场市场的闹剧。他们相信，股市涨得越高，又一场历史性崩盘的可能性也就越大。</p>\n<p>有人形容市场已经发疯，对于这次非农，不管好坏，多多少少也只是行情背后的“背锅侠”。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>单挑非农，你需要这份秘籍</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n单挑非农，你需要这份秘籍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-05 10:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/60742><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>数据的威力已经回来，这次的非农会不会成为变盘拐点？\n周三ADP出炉后市场的剧烈反应证明，数据的威力已经回来了！\n美国就业市场的至暗时刻是否真的迎来了转折点？真的仅凭一份数据就能预判美国经济前景吗？周五的非农行情是否已经被小非农提前预演？我们又该如何理性看待周五的非农数据？下面，金十数据带您理一理。\n01、行情梳理\n周三优于预期的“小非农”ADP数据公布后，市场乐观情绪被燃爆，黄金持续下挫，暴跌近...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/60742\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52e6e6d04d9823325064d60aa26462e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/60742","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167770090","content_text":"数据的威力已经回来，这次的非农会不会成为变盘拐点？\n周三ADP出炉后市场的剧烈反应证明，数据的威力已经回来了！\n美国就业市场的至暗时刻是否真的迎来了转折点？真的仅凭一份数据就能预判美国经济前景吗？周五的非农行情是否已经被小非农提前预演？我们又该如何理性看待周五的非农数据？下面，金十数据带您理一理。\n01、行情梳理\n周三优于预期的“小非农”ADP数据公布后，市场乐观情绪被燃爆，黄金持续下挫，暴跌近30美元。\n\n美股三大股指持续攀升，全线收涨，本周以来道指期货已经涨超1000点。根据金融服务公司LPL Financial编制的数据，标普500指数美东时间周三（6月3日）创下历史上最大的50天涨幅，高达37.7%，收盘价较2月中旬的纪录高位仅低8%。\n\n美元指数被指失去避险需求，连跌7天。\n\n可见，眼下市场聚焦经济复苏的迹象，经济数据的力量不可谓不大。交易员们也纷纷猜测，本周五晚公布的5月非农数据会优于预期（-800万）。对于这份非农数据，投资者们切忌被一叶障目。\n02、精选分析\nADP大幅好于预期，非农就真的值得兴奋吗？\n周三的ADP录得-276万，预期为-900万。尽管数据出炉后，市场信心大受提振，但对于5月ADP的改善之大，华尔街的分析师们却表示莫名其妙，他们找不到数据快速改善的直接原因。\n整体而言，ADP数据与3月疫情爆发以来的政府数据反映的趋势并不一致。经过3月和4月超千万级别的岗位流失后，MarketWatch调查的经济学家们预期5月将再减少740万个岗位。\n宏观经济咨询机构Pantheon Macroeconomics的经济学家Ian Shepherdson警告投资者：\n\n “ADP用于计算就业数据的模型有问题，投资者要做好双向准备。”\n\n所以，5月ADP的实质好坏令人质疑，对非农的前瞻预示作用自然大打折扣。\n失业峰值真的过去了吗？\n乐观者认为，随着各州放松限制、企业重新开业，美国就业市场出现了早期复苏迹象。高盛认为，美国失业率高峰可能已在5月出现。ADP就业数据公司副总裁则认为，失业人数可能已在4月份达到峰值。\n高盛预计，失业率下半年会出现相当快的下降，部分原因是大多数新失业的工人只是处于临时解雇状态，而不是永久性的裁员。但也有经济学家预计，许多企业仍料将破产，因此临时解雇的工人不太可能重新找到工作。\n另外，阻碍工人重返岗位的还有政府的疫情响应措施。据芝加哥大学贝克尔弗里德曼研究所对CARES法案的研究显示，68%的失业人口得到的失业补助要高于失业前的收入。在过于慷慨的失业救济之下，可能很多人不愿重返工作岗位，从而影响到就业恢复和经济复苏的步伐。\n而且，一份调查显示，与疫情相关的失业救济申请中有近33％仍未支付。部分分析师认为，如果不能在全国范围内扩大救济发放，可能会延长这场危机，并造成社会动荡。\n但这种不可持续的帮扶，也加重了财政负担。截至5月底，美国财政部已在三个月内支付了1460亿美元的失业救济，这相当于2019全年的支出总和。\n后续失业救济能否继续发放，影响的不仅仅是美国经济的复苏，更可能影响社会稳定。\n警惕第二波失业潮！\n除了已经失去的岗位难以恢复之外，还要小心第二波失业潮。\n就在“小非农”公布当天，外媒经济学家Yelena Shulyatyeva警告，情况又将发生变化，因为“第二波失业潮正在袭来”，这一次受影响更大的将是200万至600万名高薪白领工人，“3月和4月的大规模岗位丧失产生的外溢效应将破坏数百万个白领岗位”。\n至今为止，受疫情冲击最大的是低薪工人。在4月份减少的2000万个工作岗位中，有近一半来自零售业、餐饮业和酒店业的服务人员。但接下来各个行业恐怕都无法幸免，如餐馆和酒店的高级管理人员，以及房地产和金融行业的员工。这也将削弱美国经济短期内迅速反弹的前景。Shulyatyeva称：\n\n “美国就业市场好转之前先会变得更糟，白领这一次将受到最大冲击。即使州和企业重新开放，我们也有可能看到第二波裁员，因为劳动力市场变化往往落后于经济活动。”\n\n外媒经济学家Katia Dmitrieva也警告称，尽管第二轮裁员的数量可能比不上第一轮，但仍将带来巨大的经济冲击，因为中产阶级在内的人群也受到冲击，而这些人推动可自由支配支出，是美国主要的经济增长引擎。\n因此，“V形”复苏的可能性很小。\n经济学家们坚持悲观的非农预测\n或许是基于以上原因，优于预期的ADP数据并没有说服大多数华尔街经济学家修改他们对非农数据的悲观估计。\n周三ADP公布后，外媒调查的71家企业中，仅有4家的经济学家调整了他们的就业人口预测：\n\n 最乐观分析师是来自Evercore ISI的斯坦·史普利（Stan Shipley），他对预测数据做出了最大的向上调整。他现在预计，劳工部周五的报告将显示，上个月净失去了500万个工作岗位，而在ADP发布之前，他估计减少了1000万个工作岗位；Natixis北美有限责任公司的经济学家特洛伊·卢特卡（Troy Ludtka）将5月非农预期从-1155万调整至-590万；First Trust Advisors从-550万调整至-450万；Visa USA Inc.的Michael Brown从-765万调整到-720万；\n\n但大多数经济学家坚持认为，ADP的算法不同，并且与政府的每月非农数据没有直接关系。调查显示，5月份非农的中位数保持在-800万。Principal Global Investors的首席策略师Seema Shah表示：\n\n “未来完全有可能出现一个关键时点，第二波失业和长期的企业倒闭将考验市场情绪。”\n\n非农行情是否已经提前上演？\n另外，就算这次非农真的释放乐观信号，市场的上涨反应可能已经在周三ADP出炉后部分完成。因为，尽管经济远还没开始复苏，但投资者们不愿错过提前入场的机会。\n正如施罗德研究与分析团队的策略师肖恩·马科维兹（Sean Markowicz）表示，大多数坏消息在我们进入4月份之前就已经在市场上反映出来，因为投资者甚至在经济衰退尚未发生之前就已经预料到了。他补充说：\n\n “出于同样的原因，他们也抓住了复苏的时机。在官方经济数据发布之前，市场就已经采取了行动。这就是我们看到股价反弹的原因。”\n\n但如果非农数据不及预期，市场情绪反转，变盘之快可能让人措手不及。毕竟华尔街的大空头们早已虎视眈眈，这段时间的空头布局也十分猖獗：\n\n E-mini标普500指数期货非商业头寸的净空仓再度大增，规模已经堪比2015年末石油危机和制造业衰退时期；美国银行证实了“聪明钱”的做空股市趋势，其“私人”高净值客户已经连续7周做空股市，而且上周的做空规模为6月19日以来最大；摩根士丹利最近的一份报告显示，其对冲基金客户持有的欧元Stoxx 50期货净空头头寸约达400亿美元；专业投资者持续抛售股票并购入黄金。美银美林的Michael Hartnett在报告中指出，过去四周资金独爱黄金。\n\n除了非农，还有更重要的事情\n大家都知道，不管行情怎么走，分析师总能找到解释的理由。毕竟，眼下市场有很多远比非农更加紧迫、更加复杂的风险因素：\n1、疫情二次爆发的风险\n鉴于美国国内形势，人群正在大规模聚集。美国外科医生杰罗姆·亚当斯（Jerome Adams）表示，“我们有充分的理由相信，新冠病毒可能再次大规模爆发”。\n景顺集团首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜•胡珀（Kristina Hooper）说：“我们必须担心感染可能再次爆发。这些抗议活动中的任何一场都可能是一场超级传播活动。”\n新冠疫情如果卷土重来，美国各州重新开封经济的计划将不得不取消。\n2、美联储利好效应正接近极限\n新加坡对冲基金戴蒙亚洲资本（Dymon Asia Capital）的创始合伙人Danny Yong表示，投资者很快就会发现，所谓的“美联储看跌期权”（Fed put）——即美联储将出手支持市场的概念，可能正接近极限。他说：\n\n “有些人认为美联储的非常规措施是无限的，但事实并非如此。现在的问题是‘特朗普看跌期权’，他还能推动多少刺激措施？我认为总统将受到众议院民主党人的制约。”\n\n3、市场脆弱性已经接近极限\n如今，市场与基本面和现实情况史无前例地脱节，复杂的国际形势、央行的风险操纵、投资者的蜂拥而入以及交易的低流动性导致市场脆弱性上升。现在的市场已经被算法、机器以及不自觉的散户所占据。\n相反，越来越多的专业投资者都拒绝参与这场市场的闹剧。他们相信，股市涨得越高，又一场历史性崩盘的可能性也就越大。\n有人形容市场已经发疯，对于这次非农，不管好坏，多多少少也只是行情背后的“背锅侠”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922838676,"gmtCreate":1587488026695,"gmtModify":1704364471681,"author":{"id":"3545287895487362","authorId":"3545287895487362","authorIdStr":"3545287895487362","name":"立夏五月","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USO\">$美国原油ETF(USO)$</a>又停了","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$</a>空军何在。速来助我","text":"$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$空军何在。速来助我","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/921240982","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}