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勾人的小钟馗
2020-06-17
$蔚来(NIO)$
庄家准备出货了么?毕竟翻了不少了
勾人的小钟馗
2020-04-02
$蔚来(NIO)$
再过五年,会不会为今天买蔚来而庆幸?
勾人的小钟馗
2020-04-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这玩意儿是怎么逆市上涨的?不是只有中国工厂没停工,其他都停了么?
勾人的小钟馗
2020-06-17
$蔚来(NIO)$
还真说准了,翻了两三倍
勾人的小钟馗
2020-04-17
$诺亚财富(NOAH)$
长期看空国内三方财富机构,被坑的人太多了,掰着手指头数数,哪个不是吃人不吐骨头的?
勾人的小钟馗
2020-03-27
$诺亚财富(NOAH)$
要开始做多了
勾人的小钟馗
2020-04-22
$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$
赌一波,疫情原因,大家在家吸大麻[开心] [开心] [开心]
勾人的小钟馗
2020-04-17
$蔚来(NIO)$
中国庄家炒了特斯拉后,来炒蔚来了么?
勾人的小钟馗
2020-04-02
$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$
一点交易量都没有,牛逼了
勾人的小钟馗
2020-03-24
$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$
蛋壳要凉了?
勾人的小钟馗
2020-03-20
$诺亚财富(NOAH)$
可能庄家要出货
勾人的小钟馗
2021-01-10
$未来金融科技(FTFT)$
FTFT总资产就挺高,其他那些个挖矿的,玩区块链的都没这家资产高,继续看涨
勾人的小钟馗
2020-03-17
$尚德机构(STG)$
这是凉了么
勾人的小钟馗
2020-03-10
$通用电气(GE)$
大家怎么看?这股价看着总往下走呢
勾人的小钟馗
2020-04-21
$尚德机构(STG)$
该跑就跑
勾人的小钟馗
2020-03-27
$菲亚特-克莱斯特汽车公司(FCAU)$
市净率0.38?这特么也太低了,要买入么?
勾人的小钟馗
2020-04-14
$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$
感觉还会大跌一波,先落袋为安
勾人的小钟馗
2020-04-14
$尚德机构(STG)$
反正我不买你
勾人的小钟馗
2020-04-01
$菲亚特-克莱斯特汽车公司(FCAU)$
持续看好这家公司
勾人的小钟馗
2020-03-20
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
还是觉得特斯拉没跌到底呢?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","text":"$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$赌一波,疫情原因,大家在家吸大麻[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922265289","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922992477,"gmtCreate":1587403338899,"gmtModify":1704364028142,"author":{"id":"3499982047012208","authorId":"3499982047012208","name":"勾人的小钟馗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499982047012208","authorIdStr":"3499982047012208"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">$尚德机构(STG)$</a>该跑就跑","listText":"<a 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10:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蛋壳、青客会成为下一个被做空的中概股吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157639117","media":"格隆汇","summary":"在瑞幸咖啡凉凉之后,在美国上市的两家做租房业务的中概股好像也好不到哪里去,而后者的商业模式和前者不谋而合。\n2019年10月,蛋壳、青客向美国证监会递交了招股书,陆续在纳斯达克上市。瑞幸的先例也恰恰说","content":"<p><span>在瑞幸咖啡凉凉之后,在美国上市的两家做租房业务的中概股好像也好不到哪里去,而后者的商业模式和前者不谋而合。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年10月,蛋壳、青客向美国证监会递交了招股书,陆续在纳斯达克上市。瑞幸的先例也恰恰说明了:一个有着不断融资需求、无止境扩张欲望的公司往往会在财务上出现问题,同时也会遭到投资者的抵触。瑞幸自爆造假之后,蛋壳和青客也在枪口上,结局会如何?看看上市以来的股价走势和成交量就知道了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567f8d24566d6f7be7b8186c879a1053\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ada0c76d446e43bb7828979faf4aca\"></p>\n<p><b>1、是印钞机还是绞肉机?</b></p>\n<p><span>上市需求越是强烈,越是有一股浓浓的火药味。体量较大的自如只是表达了上市意愿,计划上市时间和募资规模也各不相同,青客、蛋壳公寓却先人一步提前递交了招股书。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/628ffc4ff50f8c32b2d24994fa6af8a0\"></p>\n<p><span>上市是前期投资人和公司主体的共同目的,诉求却不相同。公司是为了缓解融资压力,风投资金可以通过IPO套现出局,提前获取收益,解除风险。</span></p>\n<p><span>毕竟,长租公寓的商业模式太苦了。前期投入非常大,盈利周期时间长是行业存在的普遍痛点。如果缺少资金支持,一是很难达到规模效应的盈利边际,同时竞争者的闯入会继续抢占市场份额。</span></p>\n<p><span>反观青客从2012年拿到天使轮融资至今,期间经历过A轮1000万美元,B轮1.8亿人民币,C轮数千万美元,持续不断的融资到现在也没有实现盈利。</span></p>\n<p><span>根据青客公开的招股书,2017年,2018年营收分别是5.23, 8.90亿元人民币,却净亏损-2.45, -4.99亿元。2019年全年依旧亏损,似乎营收越多亏的越多。而此时,距离青客创立至今已经悄然走过12个年头。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>就目前的数据来看,青客近90%的营收来自于租赁业务。以2019年6月为止的9个月为例,青客每间房平均租金是1149元/月,打折后是1075元,折后租金利差是20%,所以计算出青客每间房月租金利差不超过290元。</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>但是青客每间房的平均装修费用是14750元,赚回装修成本都要花上5年时间,相当于前五年租客白住,当然算上装修折旧和房间空置率这个时间会更加漫长。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>越是扩张亏的越惨,什么时候才是尽头?规模比青客大的蛋壳,情况更加糟糕;2019年亏损34.4亿元,这个趋势还在继续没有半点止亏反弹的迹象。蛋壳,青客真是中概股的难兄难弟。</span></p>\n<p><span>很有意思的是,最近闹的沸沸扬扬的共享办公巨头,WeWork的商业模式和长租公寓是高度相似的。WeWork由于高估值和高亏损,被资本市场质疑,从2016到2018年营收分别是4.36、8.86、18.22亿美元,净利润却是-4.30、-9.33、-19.27亿美元。最后,WeWork在聚光灯下估值泡沫破裂,上市计划夭折。</span></p>\n<p><span>这类公司,纵然上市成功可以解决短期的资金压力,那么商业模式呢?模式上天然的基因缺陷注定了这条路很难而且花的时间很长。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>虽然长租公寓商业模式很一般,前期出钱拿房,进行装修运营,然后投入市场收取租金。但是很多公司玩出了新花样,没有做不到的只有想不到的。只要不背锅,想法总比困难多!!!</span></b></p>\n<p><b>2、长租公寓的商业模式</b></p>\n<p><b><span>早些年的玩法比较新颖,叫“租金贷”,坏事的就是这东西。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>原本租客是付一个房租住一个月(一般都是押一付一或者押二付一),只是押了部分租金,谁也不欠谁的。但是那些房屋租赁公司表面上看着也一样,但是模式更有意思了。</span></p>\n<p><span>租金贷的模式就是,租客在长租公寓那里租下房子的同时,还可以向金融机构申请一笔专门贷款,金融公司把租金一次性支付给了长租公寓,租客可以再按月偿还借款。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>这样一来,相当于信用卡消费差不多,租客提前预支了费用。长期公寓得到全部租金之后其中一部分付给房东,产生多余的长期下来就形成了一个巨大的资金池,那么它可以用来签订更多的房源,这相当于租客变相出卖了自己的信用去帮长租公寓融资。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>本来是恩怨分明的生意,但被长租公寓玩成了高杠杆高风险的模式。在极难盈利的情况下,还敢玩这么高的杠杆,这些公司心可真大啊。结果有点风吹草动风险就暴露出来了,宏观经济和外部环境稍微差点,多数公司的资金链就相继断裂了,然后纠纷接二连三的到来。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abfb3765aab90fa43383a4d00b35dd91\"></p>\n<p><span>本来是双方皆赢的生意,却落了个满盘皆输。结局就是大家看到的租客,房东,金融公司和长租公寓开始混战。疫情发生以后,长租公寓的空置率大幅上升,这种现象更加明显。租客退租以后还在继续缴纳租金,青客,蛋壳这些公司拖欠房东租金;最后网上剩下硝烟一片。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第二种模式也是让人大跌眼镜,这些长租公寓当真有骨气,偏偏不走寻常路。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>其实乐伽公寓倒下跑路是必然事件。知道为什么吗?一般只有人低买高卖,却有人高买低卖,显然,这不是傻子就是庞氏骗局啊。</span></p>\n<p><span>乐伽公寓走的就是这个模式,即高于市场价拿房,给房东的付款方式为一个月租金或者一个季度租金; 然后以低租金出租房屋,一次性收取租客半年到一年的租金。而这种模式跟此前已经爆雷的长租公寓采取的“租金贷”本质相同,是典型利用资金池经营长租公寓的方式。</span></p>\n<p><span>之所以采用这种方式,是因为经营方式可以快速实现规模化发展,抢占市场份额。像乐伽公寓这种操作方式,通过时间差可以形成一个庞大的资金池,再把这些获取的现金用于收购更多房源,获取更多现金流;或者用于别处的投资,以赚取更多的利润回报。</span></p>\n<p><span>玩金融杠杆,刻意高买低卖,看来业内玩家都是不务正业啊,最后把自己玩跑路了,丢下一堆乱摊子给警察叔叔收拾,这可如何是好。</span></p>\n<p><span>房屋租赁行业是个很肥的市场,万科都花了很大的力气才做的勉勉强强。真正是低买高卖的长租公寓其实不多,大的也就那么几家,最近它们都开始谋划着上市了。行业的规律也总是这样:一半焦土,一半火焰,做的突出的也是极少数。</span></p>\n<p><b>3、小机构跑路,蛋壳青客卷入风波</b></p>\n<p><span>自古逢秋悲寂寥,去年9月以后气温开始下降,长租公寓的热度也逐渐下降了。资本纷纷撤离,连续5家公寓爆雷:分公司人去楼空,房东收不到租金,租客被驱逐的场景成为了行业常态。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年7月的第一周,杭州乐伽公寓丢下租客和房东跑路了。这类事故最近也一直在上演,从2017年至今,已有将近30家公寓机构出事。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c68e87db35cf0827cfbe88c0353e8c5c\"></p>\n<p><span>十月一长假七天,疲惫的上班族借用假期外出度假旅游,而长租公寓利用这个空档期偷偷跑路。假期返程后,你肯定意想不到:等待你的是房东的逐客令!!!</span></p>\n<p><b><span>可笑的是这一幕戏剧性的又在今年年初上演了。在疫情影响下,长租公寓资金链受到了极大的影响,众多房东被蛋壳公寓通知要求减免租金1-3个月,而且工作人员向房东郑重强调:不论你是否同意,我就是告诉你一声,我们就这么干了。</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a0d42ab3083d5194c1601f27d96ccc\"></p>\n<p><b><span>但是对于被疫情困住,不能按时返回租住地的租客,这些长租公寓却毫不留情:不能入住依然收取房租和服务费。同时部分租客因为没有按时缴纳租金,而被强制收房,以至于返程后无家可归。</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dd01ffeb7a40d7880f924f8155e67a3\"></p>\n<p><span>见怪不怪,其实在几年前万科也开始进军房屋租赁市场。有人就觉得很奇怪了,放着房地产的业务不赚,搞什么房屋出租啊?这当然是有苦衷的,中国过去20年的房地产市场是遍地黄金,所以业内也出现了王石,杨国强,孙宏斌,许家印这些资本大佬。然而,房地产的下半场竞赛各大房企面临转型的尴尬。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年7月开始,传的消息却是万科正在与已签约城中村房东洽谈违约赔偿事宜,万科主动违约,也不干了。连万科这种行业的巨无霸,资本和运营能力都是值得肯定的。却也啃不下长租公寓这块大骨头,至于其他的小企业也想“蚍蜉撼大树”?</span></p>\n<p><span>万科还是有良心的,一早就控制了局面,没有让雷在租客手中爆炸。而那些已经跑路或者即将跑路的长租公寓,高买低卖的锅最后都让租客背了,这韭菜当的真心无辜。一个需要资本不断投入,而且长期看不到盈利的行业,除了炒高租金,还能为社会提供多少价值?值得我们反思!</span></p>\n<p><span>其次在疫情当中,青客和蛋壳的所作所为的确没了底线,就像自己公司的股价一样一泻千里,向下还有多少空间?它们会成为下一个被做空的中概股吗?估计不会,因为它们的体量还不够做空机构塞牙缝的,但是由于商业模式上的bug,一直不能实现盈利而沦为没有成交量的僵尸股可能性极大。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蛋壳、青客会成为下一个被做空的中概股吗?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蛋壳、青客会成为下一个被做空的中概股吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-04-15 10:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>在瑞幸咖啡凉凉之后,在美国上市的两家做租房业务的中概股好像也好不到哪里去,而后者的商业模式和前者不谋而合。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年10月,蛋壳、青客向美国证监会递交了招股书,陆续在纳斯达克上市。瑞幸的先例也恰恰说明了:一个有着不断融资需求、无止境扩张欲望的公司往往会在财务上出现问题,同时也会遭到投资者的抵触。瑞幸自爆造假之后,蛋壳和青客也在枪口上,结局会如何?看看上市以来的股价走势和成交量就知道了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/567f8d24566d6f7be7b8186c879a1053\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ada0c76d446e43bb7828979faf4aca\"></p>\n<p><b>1、是印钞机还是绞肉机?</b></p>\n<p><span>上市需求越是强烈,越是有一股浓浓的火药味。体量较大的自如只是表达了上市意愿,计划上市时间和募资规模也各不相同,青客、蛋壳公寓却先人一步提前递交了招股书。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/628ffc4ff50f8c32b2d24994fa6af8a0\"></p>\n<p><span>上市是前期投资人和公司主体的共同目的,诉求却不相同。公司是为了缓解融资压力,风投资金可以通过IPO套现出局,提前获取收益,解除风险。</span></p>\n<p><span>毕竟,长租公寓的商业模式太苦了。前期投入非常大,盈利周期时间长是行业存在的普遍痛点。如果缺少资金支持,一是很难达到规模效应的盈利边际,同时竞争者的闯入会继续抢占市场份额。</span></p>\n<p><span>反观青客从2012年拿到天使轮融资至今,期间经历过A轮1000万美元,B轮1.8亿人民币,C轮数千万美元,持续不断的融资到现在也没有实现盈利。</span></p>\n<p><span>根据青客公开的招股书,2017年,2018年营收分别是5.23, 8.90亿元人民币,却净亏损-2.45, -4.99亿元。2019年全年依旧亏损,似乎营收越多亏的越多。而此时,距离青客创立至今已经悄然走过12个年头。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>就目前的数据来看,青客近90%的营收来自于租赁业务。以2019年6月为止的9个月为例,青客每间房平均租金是1149元/月,打折后是1075元,折后租金利差是20%,所以计算出青客每间房月租金利差不超过290元。</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>但是青客每间房的平均装修费用是14750元,赚回装修成本都要花上5年时间,相当于前五年租客白住,当然算上装修折旧和房间空置率这个时间会更加漫长。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>越是扩张亏的越惨,什么时候才是尽头?规模比青客大的蛋壳,情况更加糟糕;2019年亏损34.4亿元,这个趋势还在继续没有半点止亏反弹的迹象。蛋壳,青客真是中概股的难兄难弟。</span></p>\n<p><span>很有意思的是,最近闹的沸沸扬扬的共享办公巨头,WeWork的商业模式和长租公寓是高度相似的。WeWork由于高估值和高亏损,被资本市场质疑,从2016到2018年营收分别是4.36、8.86、18.22亿美元,净利润却是-4.30、-9.33、-19.27亿美元。最后,WeWork在聚光灯下估值泡沫破裂,上市计划夭折。</span></p>\n<p><span>这类公司,纵然上市成功可以解决短期的资金压力,那么商业模式呢?模式上天然的基因缺陷注定了这条路很难而且花的时间很长。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>虽然长租公寓商业模式很一般,前期出钱拿房,进行装修运营,然后投入市场收取租金。但是很多公司玩出了新花样,没有做不到的只有想不到的。只要不背锅,想法总比困难多!!!</span></b></p>\n<p><b>2、长租公寓的商业模式</b></p>\n<p><b><span>早些年的玩法比较新颖,叫“租金贷”,坏事的就是这东西。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>原本租客是付一个房租住一个月(一般都是押一付一或者押二付一),只是押了部分租金,谁也不欠谁的。但是那些房屋租赁公司表面上看着也一样,但是模式更有意思了。</span></p>\n<p><span>租金贷的模式就是,租客在长租公寓那里租下房子的同时,还可以向金融机构申请一笔专门贷款,金融公司把租金一次性支付给了长租公寓,租客可以再按月偿还借款。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>这样一来,相当于信用卡消费差不多,租客提前预支了费用。长期公寓得到全部租金之后其中一部分付给房东,产生多余的长期下来就形成了一个巨大的资金池,那么它可以用来签订更多的房源,这相当于租客变相出卖了自己的信用去帮长租公寓融资。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>本来是恩怨分明的生意,但被长租公寓玩成了高杠杆高风险的模式。在极难盈利的情况下,还敢玩这么高的杠杆,这些公司心可真大啊。结果有点风吹草动风险就暴露出来了,宏观经济和外部环境稍微差点,多数公司的资金链就相继断裂了,然后纠纷接二连三的到来。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abfb3765aab90fa43383a4d00b35dd91\"></p>\n<p><span>本来是双方皆赢的生意,却落了个满盘皆输。结局就是大家看到的租客,房东,金融公司和长租公寓开始混战。疫情发生以后,长租公寓的空置率大幅上升,这种现象更加明显。租客退租以后还在继续缴纳租金,青客,蛋壳这些公司拖欠房东租金;最后网上剩下硝烟一片。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>第二种模式也是让人大跌眼镜,这些长租公寓当真有骨气,偏偏不走寻常路。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>其实乐伽公寓倒下跑路是必然事件。知道为什么吗?一般只有人低买高卖,却有人高买低卖,显然,这不是傻子就是庞氏骗局啊。</span></p>\n<p><span>乐伽公寓走的就是这个模式,即高于市场价拿房,给房东的付款方式为一个月租金或者一个季度租金; 然后以低租金出租房屋,一次性收取租客半年到一年的租金。而这种模式跟此前已经爆雷的长租公寓采取的“租金贷”本质相同,是典型利用资金池经营长租公寓的方式。</span></p>\n<p><span>之所以采用这种方式,是因为经营方式可以快速实现规模化发展,抢占市场份额。像乐伽公寓这种操作方式,通过时间差可以形成一个庞大的资金池,再把这些获取的现金用于收购更多房源,获取更多现金流;或者用于别处的投资,以赚取更多的利润回报。</span></p>\n<p><span>玩金融杠杆,刻意高买低卖,看来业内玩家都是不务正业啊,最后把自己玩跑路了,丢下一堆乱摊子给警察叔叔收拾,这可如何是好。</span></p>\n<p><span>房屋租赁行业是个很肥的市场,万科都花了很大的力气才做的勉勉强强。真正是低买高卖的长租公寓其实不多,大的也就那么几家,最近它们都开始谋划着上市了。行业的规律也总是这样:一半焦土,一半火焰,做的突出的也是极少数。</span></p>\n<p><b>3、小机构跑路,蛋壳青客卷入风波</b></p>\n<p><span>自古逢秋悲寂寥,去年9月以后气温开始下降,长租公寓的热度也逐渐下降了。资本纷纷撤离,连续5家公寓爆雷:分公司人去楼空,房东收不到租金,租客被驱逐的场景成为了行业常态。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年7月的第一周,杭州乐伽公寓丢下租客和房东跑路了。这类事故最近也一直在上演,从2017年至今,已有将近30家公寓机构出事。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c68e87db35cf0827cfbe88c0353e8c5c\"></p>\n<p><span>十月一长假七天,疲惫的上班族借用假期外出度假旅游,而长租公寓利用这个空档期偷偷跑路。假期返程后,你肯定意想不到:等待你的是房东的逐客令!!!</span></p>\n<p><b><span>可笑的是这一幕戏剧性的又在今年年初上演了。在疫情影响下,长租公寓资金链受到了极大的影响,众多房东被蛋壳公寓通知要求减免租金1-3个月,而且工作人员向房东郑重强调:不论你是否同意,我就是告诉你一声,我们就这么干了。</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a0d42ab3083d5194c1601f27d96ccc\"></p>\n<p><b><span>但是对于被疫情困住,不能按时返回租住地的租客,这些长租公寓却毫不留情:不能入住依然收取房租和服务费。同时部分租客因为没有按时缴纳租金,而被强制收房,以至于返程后无家可归。</span></b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dd01ffeb7a40d7880f924f8155e67a3\"></p>\n<p><span>见怪不怪,其实在几年前万科也开始进军房屋租赁市场。有人就觉得很奇怪了,放着房地产的业务不赚,搞什么房屋出租啊?这当然是有苦衷的,中国过去20年的房地产市场是遍地黄金,所以业内也出现了王石,杨国强,孙宏斌,许家印这些资本大佬。然而,房地产的下半场竞赛各大房企面临转型的尴尬。</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年7月开始,传的消息却是万科正在与已签约城中村房东洽谈违约赔偿事宜,万科主动违约,也不干了。连万科这种行业的巨无霸,资本和运营能力都是值得肯定的。却也啃不下长租公寓这块大骨头,至于其他的小企业也想“蚍蜉撼大树”?</span></p>\n<p><span>万科还是有良心的,一早就控制了局面,没有让雷在租客手中爆炸。而那些已经跑路或者即将跑路的长租公寓,高买低卖的锅最后都让租客背了,这韭菜当的真心无辜。一个需要资本不断投入,而且长期看不到盈利的行业,除了炒高租金,还能为社会提供多少价值?值得我们反思!</span></p>\n<p><span>其次在疫情当中,青客和蛋壳的所作所为的确没了底线,就像自己公司的股价一样一泻千里,向下还有多少空间?它们会成为下一个被做空的中概股吗?估计不会,因为它们的体量还不够做空机构塞牙缝的,但是由于商业模式上的bug,一直不能实现盈利而沦为没有成交量的僵尸股可能性极大。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"DNK":"蛋壳公寓"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157639117","content_text":"在瑞幸咖啡凉凉之后,在美国上市的两家做租房业务的中概股好像也好不到哪里去,而后者的商业模式和前者不谋而合。\n2019年10月,蛋壳、青客向美国证监会递交了招股书,陆续在纳斯达克上市。瑞幸的先例也恰恰说明了:一个有着不断融资需求、无止境扩张欲望的公司往往会在财务上出现问题,同时也会遭到投资者的抵触。瑞幸自爆造假之后,蛋壳和青客也在枪口上,结局会如何?看看上市以来的股价走势和成交量就知道了。\n\n1、是印钞机还是绞肉机?\n上市需求越是强烈,越是有一股浓浓的火药味。体量较大的自如只是表达了上市意愿,计划上市时间和募资规模也各不相同,青客、蛋壳公寓却先人一步提前递交了招股书。\n\n上市是前期投资人和公司主体的共同目的,诉求却不相同。公司是为了缓解融资压力,风投资金可以通过IPO套现出局,提前获取收益,解除风险。\n毕竟,长租公寓的商业模式太苦了。前期投入非常大,盈利周期时间长是行业存在的普遍痛点。如果缺少资金支持,一是很难达到规模效应的盈利边际,同时竞争者的闯入会继续抢占市场份额。\n反观青客从2012年拿到天使轮融资至今,期间经历过A轮1000万美元,B轮1.8亿人民币,C轮数千万美元,持续不断的融资到现在也没有实现盈利。\n根据青客公开的招股书,2017年,2018年营收分别是5.23, 8.90亿元人民币,却净亏损-2.45, -4.99亿元。2019年全年依旧亏损,似乎营收越多亏的越多。而此时,距离青客创立至今已经悄然走过12个年头。\n就目前的数据来看,青客近90%的营收来自于租赁业务。以2019年6月为止的9个月为例,青客每间房平均租金是1149元/月,打折后是1075元,折后租金利差是20%,所以计算出青客每间房月租金利差不超过290元。\n但是青客每间房的平均装修费用是14750元,赚回装修成本都要花上5年时间,相当于前五年租客白住,当然算上装修折旧和房间空置率这个时间会更加漫长。\n越是扩张亏的越惨,什么时候才是尽头?规模比青客大的蛋壳,情况更加糟糕;2019年亏损34.4亿元,这个趋势还在继续没有半点止亏反弹的迹象。蛋壳,青客真是中概股的难兄难弟。\n很有意思的是,最近闹的沸沸扬扬的共享办公巨头,WeWork的商业模式和长租公寓是高度相似的。WeWork由于高估值和高亏损,被资本市场质疑,从2016到2018年营收分别是4.36、8.86、18.22亿美元,净利润却是-4.30、-9.33、-19.27亿美元。最后,WeWork在聚光灯下估值泡沫破裂,上市计划夭折。\n这类公司,纵然上市成功可以解决短期的资金压力,那么商业模式呢?模式上天然的基因缺陷注定了这条路很难而且花的时间很长。\n虽然长租公寓商业模式很一般,前期出钱拿房,进行装修运营,然后投入市场收取租金。但是很多公司玩出了新花样,没有做不到的只有想不到的。只要不背锅,想法总比困难多!!!\n2、长租公寓的商业模式\n早些年的玩法比较新颖,叫“租金贷”,坏事的就是这东西。\n原本租客是付一个房租住一个月(一般都是押一付一或者押二付一),只是押了部分租金,谁也不欠谁的。但是那些房屋租赁公司表面上看着也一样,但是模式更有意思了。\n租金贷的模式就是,租客在长租公寓那里租下房子的同时,还可以向金融机构申请一笔专门贷款,金融公司把租金一次性支付给了长租公寓,租客可以再按月偿还借款。\n这样一来,相当于信用卡消费差不多,租客提前预支了费用。长期公寓得到全部租金之后其中一部分付给房东,产生多余的长期下来就形成了一个巨大的资金池,那么它可以用来签订更多的房源,这相当于租客变相出卖了自己的信用去帮长租公寓融资。\n本来是恩怨分明的生意,但被长租公寓玩成了高杠杆高风险的模式。在极难盈利的情况下,还敢玩这么高的杠杆,这些公司心可真大啊。结果有点风吹草动风险就暴露出来了,宏观经济和外部环境稍微差点,多数公司的资金链就相继断裂了,然后纠纷接二连三的到来。\n\n本来是双方皆赢的生意,却落了个满盘皆输。结局就是大家看到的租客,房东,金融公司和长租公寓开始混战。疫情发生以后,长租公寓的空置率大幅上升,这种现象更加明显。租客退租以后还在继续缴纳租金,青客,蛋壳这些公司拖欠房东租金;最后网上剩下硝烟一片。\n第二种模式也是让人大跌眼镜,这些长租公寓当真有骨气,偏偏不走寻常路。\n其实乐伽公寓倒下跑路是必然事件。知道为什么吗?一般只有人低买高卖,却有人高买低卖,显然,这不是傻子就是庞氏骗局啊。\n乐伽公寓走的就是这个模式,即高于市场价拿房,给房东的付款方式为一个月租金或者一个季度租金; 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