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止损止盈
不管是在生活还是在交易当中,人们总是可能会将某种其实完全是运气
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止损止盈
2021-06-11
$AMC院线(AMC)$
曾经有幸在2块钱的时候买了300股,但是还没等开涨就扔了
止损止盈
2021-03-30
$小米集团-W(01810)$
猜一下明天收盘小米的股价?
止损止盈
2021-02-09
$天演药业(ADAG)$
3股
止损止盈
2021-01-23
$RLX科技(RLX)$
我挂的限价单直接卖了[笑哭]
止损止盈
2020-11-24
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
刚才做梦涨到了25。
止损止盈
2020-09-02
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
现在估值是7.46亿,要涨到300亿就要是现在的40倍,现在股价6.1刀,要涨到240咯。不知道什么时候能涨到300亿[笑哭]
止损止盈
2020-08-20
$腾讯音乐(TME)$
这几天要反弹一波
止损止盈
2020-08-20
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
最近一段时间按照自己的交易原则交易比较顺利,可就在京东,老虎发财报这两天上头了,本来一直持仓京东,到了财报日8/17日,盘中全部清仓了,本来的思路是先空仓几天。但是18号老虎发财报的时候,盘前看到老虎亮眼的数据,急忙跑步入场了。一下子就又成了原来的那颗韭菜,老虎的财报利好已经在之前的几天里全部体现出来了,财报后只是利好兑现。利好过后便是利空,不该买。还有一个重大的错误,知道已经方向错误却没有进行止损,这是该打脸的。虽然老虎长期看涨,但是这几天大盘都已经在高位了,有点需要调整的意思,万一大盘调整,就不知道哪是老虎的底了。还有就是今天盘前涨到6.4的时候应该先止损一部分,而我却选择了希望更小的反转,以后一定要杜绝这样的方法,作为一个小韭菜摸爬滚打这么长时间,用那么多真金白银才慢慢掌握了一套属于的交易方法,如果严格按照自己方法的操作方式,根本就不会有这样的事情发生,而我却轻易打破了自己的原则。是不是要改名,判断~原则,才能涨记性呢?
止损止盈
2020-06-12
$燃石医学(BNR)$
走了,感谢老虎,明天早餐可以买个包子吃了。
止损止盈
2020-06-12
$燃石医学(BNR)$
23.1了
止损止盈
2020-06-05
空他
单挑非农,你需要这份秘籍
止损止盈
2019-12-18
看完了
抱歉,原内容已删除
止损止盈
2019-01-15
$蔚来(NIO)$ 蔚来上市价是7刀是不,第一天破发,第二天涨130%吧好像。紧接着趣头条上市,盘中涨幅最高190%,我就是那时侯入了美股这个大坑。
止损止盈
2019-01-15
$拼多多(PDD)$ 预测,明天继续📉,盘中低点22.5,尾盘稍微回点血,接近23左右。后天涨回来到今天的收盘价,大后天在稍微涨一点,然后正式开始跌到无下限模式,目标价16.5。我瞎说的,你们别信哈。
止损止盈
2019-01-15
$触宝(CTK)$ 发行价12,开盘破发,一直阴跌到5块多,这些天没看,怎么居然涨回来了。
止损止盈
2019-01-14
$拼多多(PDD)$ 在大家都看多的时候就要慎重了。
止损止盈
2019-01-10
$拼多多(PDD)$ 拼多多做空机构给的价是7刀,小米给的是10.5港币,看看现在的拼多多和小米。
止损止盈
2019-01-10
$拼多多(PDD)$ 空池没有,要📉了
止损止盈
2018-12-14
$360金融(QFIN)$ 刚才那个100股显示盈利200是什么意思?
止损止盈
2018-12-14
$360金融(QFIN)$ 好慌,好久没中了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>最近一段时间按照自己的交易原则交易比较顺利,可就在京东,老虎发财报这两天上头了,本来一直持仓京东,到了财报日8/17日,盘中全部清仓了,本来的思路是先空仓几天。但是18号老虎发财报的时候,盘前看到老虎亮眼的数据,急忙跑步入场了。一下子就又成了原来的那颗韭菜,老虎的财报利好已经在之前的几天里全部体现出来了,财报后只是利好兑现。利好过后便是利空,不该买。还有一个重大的错误,知道已经方向错误却没有进行止损,这是该打脸的。虽然老虎长期看涨,但是这几天大盘都已经在高位了,有点需要调整的意思,万一大盘调整,就不知道哪是老虎的底了。还有就是今天盘前涨到6.4的时候应该先止损一部分,而我却选择了希望更小的反转,以后一定要杜绝这样的方法,作为一个小韭菜摸爬滚打这么长时间,用那么多真金白银才慢慢掌握了一套属于的交易方法,如果严格按照自己方法的操作方式,根本就不会有这样的事情发生,而我却轻易打破了自己的原则。是不是要改名,判断~原则,才能涨记性呢?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>最近一段时间按照自己的交易原则交易比较顺利,可就在京东,老虎发财报这两天上头了,本来一直持仓京东,到了财报日8/17日,盘中全部清仓了,本来的思路是先空仓几天。但是18号老虎发财报的时候,盘前看到老虎亮眼的数据,急忙跑步入场了。一下子就又成了原来的那颗韭菜,老虎的财报利好已经在之前的几天里全部体现出来了,财报后只是利好兑现。利好过后便是利空,不该买。还有一个重大的错误,知道已经方向错误却没有进行止损,这是该打脸的。虽然老虎长期看涨,但是这几天大盘都已经在高位了,有点需要调整的意思,万一大盘调整,就不知道哪是老虎的底了。还有就是今天盘前涨到6.4的时候应该先止损一部分,而我却选择了希望更小的反转,以后一定要杜绝这样的方法,作为一个小韭菜摸爬滚打这么长时间,用那么多真金白银才慢慢掌握了一套属于的交易方法,如果严格按照自己方法的操作方式,根本就不会有这样的事情发生,而我却轻易打破了自己的原则。是不是要改名,判断~原则,才能涨记性呢?","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$最近一段时间按照自己的交易原则交易比较顺利,可就在京东,老虎发财报这两天上头了,本来一直持仓京东,到了财报日8/17日,盘中全部清仓了,本来的思路是先空仓几天。但是18号老虎发财报的时候,盘前看到老虎亮眼的数据,急忙跑步入场了。一下子就又成了原来的那颗韭菜,老虎的财报利好已经在之前的几天里全部体现出来了,财报后只是利好兑现。利好过后便是利空,不该买。还有一个重大的错误,知道已经方向错误却没有进行止损,这是该打脸的。虽然老虎长期看涨,但是这几天大盘都已经在高位了,有点需要调整的意思,万一大盘调整,就不知道哪是老虎的底了。还有就是今天盘前涨到6.4的时候应该先止损一部分,而我却选择了希望更小的反转,以后一定要杜绝这样的方法,作为一个小韭菜摸爬滚打这么长时间,用那么多真金白银才慢慢掌握了一套属于的交易方法,如果严格按照自己方法的操作方式,根本就不会有这样的事情发生,而我却轻易打破了自己的原则。是不是要改名,判断~原则,才能涨记性呢?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2f3c3d46f3d930d388f417b75a63c29","width":"1080","height":"715"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970468636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3433822139038233","authorId":"3433822139038233","name":"桔子罐头","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3448df0bfcbbf8f44280e97adf70eb5f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3433822139038233","idStr":"3433822139038233"},"content":"不太可能,不是你按照你的原则操作,而是每次都会有做错的可能,要有及时止损的勇气,不然就做好打持久战的准备。猜底部没意义,最好的就是当下,这是一次20个点以来的调整,可能全部抹杀,也可能在6块以后向上,一切皆有可能,所以不要轻易给自己的过往下结论,穿越牛熊才会成长啊。","text":"不太可能,不是你按照你的原则操作,而是每次都会有做错的可能,要有及时止损的勇气,不然就做好打持久战的准备。猜底部没意义,最好的就是当下,这是一次20个点以来的调整,可能全部抹杀,也可能在6块以后向上,一切皆有可能,所以不要轻易给自己的过往下结论,穿越牛熊才会成长啊。","html":"不太可能,不是你按照你的原则操作,而是每次都会有做错的可能,要有及时止损的勇气,不然就做好打持久战的准备。猜底部没意义,最好的就是当下,这是一次20个点以来的调整,可能全部抹杀,也可能在6块以后向上,一切皆有可能,所以不要轻易给自己的过往下结论,穿越牛熊才会成长啊。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952285291,"gmtCreate":1591976190713,"gmtModify":1704197919960,"author":{"id":"3499033621783392","authorId":"3499033621783392","name":"止损止盈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0785934c1c1cd1ffedfd77e246b1e0d0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499033621783392","idStr":"3499033621783392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNR\">$燃石医学(BNR)$</a>走了,感谢老虎,明天早餐可以买个包子吃了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNR\">$燃石医学(BNR)$</a>走了,感谢老虎,明天早餐可以买个包子吃了。","text":"$燃石医学(BNR)$走了,感谢老虎,明天早餐可以买个包子吃了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952285291","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952280590,"gmtCreate":1591975452810,"gmtModify":1704197910856,"author":{"id":"3499033621783392","authorId":"3499033621783392","name":"止损止盈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0785934c1c1cd1ffedfd77e246b1e0d0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499033621783392","idStr":"3499033621783392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNR\">$燃石医学(BNR)$</a>23.1了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNR\">$燃石医学(BNR)$</a>23.1了","text":"$燃石医学(BNR)$23.1了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952280590","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958757288,"gmtCreate":1591368304344,"gmtModify":1704195625901,"author":{"id":"3499033621783392","authorId":"3499033621783392","name":"止损止盈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0785934c1c1cd1ffedfd77e246b1e0d0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3499033621783392","idStr":"3499033621783392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"空他","listText":"空他","text":"空他","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958757288","repostId":"1167770090","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167770090","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1591323044,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167770090?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-05 10:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"单挑非农,你需要这份秘籍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167770090","media":"金十数据","summary":"数据的威力已经回来,这次的非农会不会成为变盘拐点?\n周三ADP出炉后市场的剧烈反应证明,数据的威力已经回来了!\n美国就业市场的至暗时刻是否真的迎来了转折点?真的仅凭一份数据就能预判美国经济前景吗?周五","content":"<p>数据的威力已经回来,这次的非农会不会成为变盘拐点?</p>\n<p>周三ADP出炉后市场的剧烈反应证明,数据的威力已经回来了!</p>\n<p>美国就业市场的至暗时刻是否真的迎来了转折点?真的仅凭一份数据就能预判美国经济前景吗?周五的非农行情是否已经被小非农提前预演?我们又该如何理性看待周五的非农数据?下面,金十数据带您理一理。</p>\n<p><span><b>01、</b></span><span><b><u>行情梳理</u></b></span></p>\n<p>周三优于预期的“小非农”ADP数据公布后,市场乐观情绪被燃爆,黄金持续下挫,暴跌近30美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e7ad3a645e36bae467d4373ac5621ac\" tg-width=\"1250\" tg-height=\"666\"></p>\n<p>美股三大股指持续攀升,全线收涨,本周以来道指期货已经涨超1000点。根据金融服务公司LPL Financial编制的数据,标普500指数美东时间周三(6月3日)创下历史上最大的50天涨幅,高达37.7%,收盘价较2月中旬的纪录高位仅低8%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60c500b2681b59b2a9929b4a26ed2211\" tg-width=\"1026\" tg-height=\"547\"></p>\n<p>美元指数被指失去避险需求,连跌7天。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cd4481d58035a4df698062c521b5aff\" tg-width=\"1092\" tg-height=\"561\"></p>\n<p>可见,眼下市场聚焦经济复苏的迹象,经济数据的力量不可谓不大。交易员们也纷纷猜测,本周五晚公布的5月非农数据会优于预期(-800万)。对于这份非农数据,投资者们切忌被一叶障目。</p>\n<p><b><span>02、</span></b><b><span><u>精选分析</u></span></b></p>\n<p><span><b>ADP大幅好于预期,非农就真的值得兴奋吗?</b></span></p>\n<p>周三的ADP录得-276万,预期为-900万。尽管数据出炉后,市场信心大受提振,但对于5月ADP的改善之大,华尔街的分析师们却表示莫名其妙,他们找不到数据快速改善的直接原因。</p>\n<p>整体而言,ADP数据与3月疫情爆发以来的政府数据反映的趋势并不一致。经过3月和4月超千万级别的岗位流失后,MarketWatch调查的经济学家们预期5月将再减少740万个岗位。</p>\n<p>宏观经济咨询机构Pantheon Macroeconomics的经济学家Ian Shepherdson警告投资者:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “ADP用于计算就业数据的模型有问题,投资者要做好双向准备。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>所以,<b>5月ADP的实质好坏令人质疑,对非农的前瞻预示作用自然大打折扣。</b></p>\n<p><span><b>失业峰值真的过去了吗?</b></span></p>\n<p>乐观者认为,随着各州放松限制、企业重新开业,美国就业市场出现了早期复苏迹象。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为,美国失业率高峰可能已在5月出现。ADP就业数据公司副总裁则认为,失业人数可能已在4月份达到峰值。</p>\n<p>高盛预计,失业率下半年会出现相当快的下降,部分原因是大多数新失业的工人只是处于临时解雇状态,而不是永久性的裁员。但也有经济学家预计,许多企业仍料将破产,因此临时解雇的工人不太可能重新找到工作。</p>\n<p>另外,阻碍工人重返岗位的还有政府的疫情响应措施。据芝加哥大学贝克尔弗里德曼研究所对CARES法案的研究显示,68%的失业人口得到的失业补助要高于失业前的收入。在过于慷慨的失业救济之下,可能很多人不愿重返工作岗位,从而影响到就业恢复和经济复苏的步伐。</p>\n<p>而且,一份调查显示,与疫情相关的失业救济申请中有近33%仍未支付。部分分析师认为,如果不能在全国范围内扩大救济发放,可能会延长这场危机,并造成社会动荡。</p>\n<p>但这种不可持续的帮扶,也加重了财政负担。截至5月底,美国财政部已在三个月内支付了1460亿美元的失业救济,这相当于2019全年的支出总和。</p>\n<p>后续失业救济能否继续发放,影响的不仅仅是美国经济的复苏,更可能影响社会稳定。</p>\n<p><span><b>警惕第二波失业潮!</b></span></p>\n<p>除了已经失去的岗位难以恢复之外,还要小心第二波失业潮。</p>\n<p>就在“小非农”公布当天,外媒经济学家Yelena Shulyatyeva警告,情况又将发生变化,因为“第二波失业潮正在袭来”,<b>这一次受影响更大的将是200万至600万名高薪白领工人</b>,“3月和4月的大规模岗位丧失产生的外溢效应将破坏数百万个白领岗位”。</p>\n<p>至今为止,受疫情冲击最大的是低薪工人。在4月份减少的2000万个工作岗位中,有近一半来自零售业、餐饮业和酒店业的服务人员。但接下来各个行业恐怕都无法幸免,如餐馆和酒店的高级管理人员,以及房地产和金融行业的员工。这也将削弱美国经济短期内迅速反弹的前景。Shulyatyeva称:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “美国就业市场好转之前先会变得更糟,白领这一次将受到最大冲击。即使州和企业重新开放,我们也有可能看到第二波裁员,因为劳动力市场变化往往落后于经济活动。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>外媒经济学家Katia Dmitrieva也警告称,尽管第二轮裁员的数量可能比不上第一轮,但仍将带来巨大的经济冲击,因为中产阶级在内的人群也受到冲击,而这些人推动可自由支配支出,是美国主要的经济增长引擎。</p>\n<p>因此,“V形”复苏的可能性很小。</p>\n<p><span><b>经济学家们坚持悲观的非农预测</b></span></p>\n<p>或许是基于以上原因,优于预期的ADP数据并没有说服大多数华尔街经济学家修改他们对非农数据的悲观估计。</p>\n<p>周三ADP公布后,外媒调查的71家企业中,仅有4家的经济学家调整了他们的就业人口预测:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 最乐观分析师是来自Evercore ISI的斯坦·史普利(Stan Shipley),他对预测数据做出了最大的向上调整。他现在预计,劳工部周五的报告将显示,上个月净失去了500万个工作岗位,而在ADP发布之前,他估计减少了1000万个工作岗位;Natixis北美有限责任公司的经济学家特洛伊·卢特卡(Troy Ludtka)将5月非农预期从-1155万调整至-590万;First Trust Advisors从-550万调整至-450万;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> USA Inc.的Michael Brown从-765万调整到-720万;\n</blockquote>\n<p>但大多数经济学家坚持认为,ADP的算法不同,并且与政府的每月非农数据没有直接关系。调查显示,5月份非农的中位数保持在-800万。Principal Global Investors的首席策略师Seema Shah表示:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “未来完全有可能出现一个关键时点,第二波失业和长期的企业倒闭将考验市场情绪。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><span><b>非农行情是否已经提前上演?</b></span></p>\n<p>另外,就算这次非农真的释放乐观信号,市场的上涨反应可能已经在周三ADP出炉后部分完成。因为,尽管经济远还没开始复苏,但投资者们不愿错过提前入场的机会。</p>\n<p>正如施罗德研究与分析团队的策略师肖恩·马科维兹(Sean Markowicz)表示,大多数坏消息在我们进入4月份之前就已经在市场上反映出来,因为投资者甚至在经济衰退尚未发生之前就已经预料到了。他补充说:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “出于同样的原因,他们也抓住了复苏的时机。在官方经济数据发布之前,市场就已经采取了行动。这就是我们看到股价反弹的原因。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>但如果非农数据不及预期,市场情绪反转,变盘之快可能让人措手不及。毕竟华尔街的大空头们早已虎视眈眈,这段时间的空头布局也十分猖獗:</p>\n<blockquote>\n E-mini标普500指数期货非商业头寸的净空仓再度大增,规模已经堪比2015年末石油危机和制造业衰退时期;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>证实了“聪明钱”的做空股市趋势,其“私人”高净值客户已经连续7周做空股市,而且上周的做空规模为6月19日以来最大;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>最近的一份报告显示,其对冲基金客户持有的欧元Stoxx 50期货净空头头寸约达400亿美元;专业投资者持续抛售股票并购入黄金。美银美林的Michael Hartnett在报告中指出,过去四周资金独爱黄金。\n</blockquote>\n<p><span><b>除了非农,还有更重要的事情</b></span></p>\n<p>大家都知道,不管行情怎么走,分析师总能找到解释的理由。毕竟,眼下市场有很多远比非农更加紧迫、更加复杂的风险因素:</p>\n<p><b><span>1、疫情二次爆发的风险</span></b></p>\n<p>鉴于美国国内形势,人群正在大规模聚集。美国外科医生杰罗姆·亚当斯(Jerome Adams)表示,“我们有充分的理由相信,新冠病毒可能再次大规模爆发”。</p>\n<p>景顺集团首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜•胡珀(Kristina Hooper)说:“我们必须担心感染可能再次爆发。这些抗议活动中的任何一场都可能是一场超级传播活动。”</p>\n<p>新冠疫情如果卷土重来,美国各州重新开封经济的计划将不得不取消。</p>\n<p><b><span>2、美联储利好效应正接近极限</span></b></p>\n<p>新加坡对冲基金戴蒙亚洲资本(Dymon Asia Capital)的创始合伙人Danny Yong表示,投资者很快就会发现,所谓的“美联储看跌期权”(Fed put)——即美联储将出手支持市场的概念,可能正接近极限。他说:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “有些人认为美联储的非常规措施是无限的,但事实并非如此。现在的问题是‘特朗普看跌期权’,他还能推动多少刺激措施?我认为总统将受到众议院民主党人的制约。”\n</blockquote>\n<p><b><span>3、市场脆弱性已经接近极限</span></b></p>\n<p>如今,市场与基本面和现实情况史无前例地脱节,复杂的国际形势、央行的风险操纵、投资者的蜂拥而入以及交易的低流动性导致市场脆弱性上升。现在的市场已经被算法、机器以及不自觉的散户所占据。</p>\n<p>相反,越来越多的专业投资者都拒绝参与这场市场的闹剧。他们相信,股市涨得越高,又一场历史性崩盘的可能性也就越大。</p>\n<p>有人形容市场已经发疯,对于这次非农,不管好坏,多多少少也只是行情背后的“背锅侠”。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>单挑非农,你需要这份秘籍</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n单挑非农,你需要这份秘籍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-05 10:10 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/60742><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>数据的威力已经回来,这次的非农会不会成为变盘拐点?\n周三ADP出炉后市场的剧烈反应证明,数据的威力已经回来了!\n美国就业市场的至暗时刻是否真的迎来了转折点?真的仅凭一份数据就能预判美国经济前景吗?周五的非农行情是否已经被小非农提前预演?我们又该如何理性看待周五的非农数据?下面,金十数据带您理一理。\n01、行情梳理\n周三优于预期的“小非农”ADP数据公布后,市场乐观情绪被燃爆,黄金持续下挫,暴跌近...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/60742\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52e6e6d04d9823325064d60aa26462e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/60742","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167770090","content_text":"数据的威力已经回来,这次的非农会不会成为变盘拐点?\n周三ADP出炉后市场的剧烈反应证明,数据的威力已经回来了!\n美国就业市场的至暗时刻是否真的迎来了转折点?真的仅凭一份数据就能预判美国经济前景吗?周五的非农行情是否已经被小非农提前预演?我们又该如何理性看待周五的非农数据?下面,金十数据带您理一理。\n01、行情梳理\n周三优于预期的“小非农”ADP数据公布后,市场乐观情绪被燃爆,黄金持续下挫,暴跌近30美元。\n\n美股三大股指持续攀升,全线收涨,本周以来道指期货已经涨超1000点。根据金融服务公司LPL Financial编制的数据,标普500指数美东时间周三(6月3日)创下历史上最大的50天涨幅,高达37.7%,收盘价较2月中旬的纪录高位仅低8%。\n\n美元指数被指失去避险需求,连跌7天。\n\n可见,眼下市场聚焦经济复苏的迹象,经济数据的力量不可谓不大。交易员们也纷纷猜测,本周五晚公布的5月非农数据会优于预期(-800万)。对于这份非农数据,投资者们切忌被一叶障目。\n02、精选分析\nADP大幅好于预期,非农就真的值得兴奋吗?\n周三的ADP录得-276万,预期为-900万。尽管数据出炉后,市场信心大受提振,但对于5月ADP的改善之大,华尔街的分析师们却表示莫名其妙,他们找不到数据快速改善的直接原因。\n整体而言,ADP数据与3月疫情爆发以来的政府数据反映的趋势并不一致。经过3月和4月超千万级别的岗位流失后,MarketWatch调查的经济学家们预期5月将再减少740万个岗位。\n宏观经济咨询机构Pantheon Macroeconomics的经济学家Ian Shepherdson警告投资者:\n\n “ADP用于计算就业数据的模型有问题,投资者要做好双向准备。”\n\n所以,5月ADP的实质好坏令人质疑,对非农的前瞻预示作用自然大打折扣。\n失业峰值真的过去了吗?\n乐观者认为,随着各州放松限制、企业重新开业,美国就业市场出现了早期复苏迹象。高盛认为,美国失业率高峰可能已在5月出现。ADP就业数据公司副总裁则认为,失业人数可能已在4月份达到峰值。\n高盛预计,失业率下半年会出现相当快的下降,部分原因是大多数新失业的工人只是处于临时解雇状态,而不是永久性的裁员。但也有经济学家预计,许多企业仍料将破产,因此临时解雇的工人不太可能重新找到工作。\n另外,阻碍工人重返岗位的还有政府的疫情响应措施。据芝加哥大学贝克尔弗里德曼研究所对CARES法案的研究显示,68%的失业人口得到的失业补助要高于失业前的收入。在过于慷慨的失业救济之下,可能很多人不愿重返工作岗位,从而影响到就业恢复和经济复苏的步伐。\n而且,一份调查显示,与疫情相关的失业救济申请中有近33%仍未支付。部分分析师认为,如果不能在全国范围内扩大救济发放,可能会延长这场危机,并造成社会动荡。\n但这种不可持续的帮扶,也加重了财政负担。截至5月底,美国财政部已在三个月内支付了1460亿美元的失业救济,这相当于2019全年的支出总和。\n后续失业救济能否继续发放,影响的不仅仅是美国经济的复苏,更可能影响社会稳定。\n警惕第二波失业潮!\n除了已经失去的岗位难以恢复之外,还要小心第二波失业潮。\n就在“小非农”公布当天,外媒经济学家Yelena Shulyatyeva警告,情况又将发生变化,因为“第二波失业潮正在袭来”,这一次受影响更大的将是200万至600万名高薪白领工人,“3月和4月的大规模岗位丧失产生的外溢效应将破坏数百万个白领岗位”。\n至今为止,受疫情冲击最大的是低薪工人。在4月份减少的2000万个工作岗位中,有近一半来自零售业、餐饮业和酒店业的服务人员。但接下来各个行业恐怕都无法幸免,如餐馆和酒店的高级管理人员,以及房地产和金融行业的员工。这也将削弱美国经济短期内迅速反弹的前景。Shulyatyeva称:\n\n “美国就业市场好转之前先会变得更糟,白领这一次将受到最大冲击。即使州和企业重新开放,我们也有可能看到第二波裁员,因为劳动力市场变化往往落后于经济活动。”\n\n外媒经济学家Katia Dmitrieva也警告称,尽管第二轮裁员的数量可能比不上第一轮,但仍将带来巨大的经济冲击,因为中产阶级在内的人群也受到冲击,而这些人推动可自由支配支出,是美国主要的经济增长引擎。\n因此,“V形”复苏的可能性很小。\n经济学家们坚持悲观的非农预测\n或许是基于以上原因,优于预期的ADP数据并没有说服大多数华尔街经济学家修改他们对非农数据的悲观估计。\n周三ADP公布后,外媒调查的71家企业中,仅有4家的经济学家调整了他们的就业人口预测:\n\n 最乐观分析师是来自Evercore ISI的斯坦·史普利(Stan Shipley),他对预测数据做出了最大的向上调整。他现在预计,劳工部周五的报告将显示,上个月净失去了500万个工作岗位,而在ADP发布之前,他估计减少了1000万个工作岗位;Natixis北美有限责任公司的经济学家特洛伊·卢特卡(Troy Ludtka)将5月非农预期从-1155万调整至-590万;First Trust Advisors从-550万调整至-450万;Visa USA Inc.的Michael Brown从-765万调整到-720万;\n\n但大多数经济学家坚持认为,ADP的算法不同,并且与政府的每月非农数据没有直接关系。调查显示,5月份非农的中位数保持在-800万。Principal Global Investors的首席策略师Seema Shah表示:\n\n “未来完全有可能出现一个关键时点,第二波失业和长期的企业倒闭将考验市场情绪。”\n\n非农行情是否已经提前上演?\n另外,就算这次非农真的释放乐观信号,市场的上涨反应可能已经在周三ADP出炉后部分完成。因为,尽管经济远还没开始复苏,但投资者们不愿错过提前入场的机会。\n正如施罗德研究与分析团队的策略师肖恩·马科维兹(Sean Markowicz)表示,大多数坏消息在我们进入4月份之前就已经在市场上反映出来,因为投资者甚至在经济衰退尚未发生之前就已经预料到了。他补充说:\n\n “出于同样的原因,他们也抓住了复苏的时机。在官方经济数据发布之前,市场就已经采取了行动。这就是我们看到股价反弹的原因。”\n\n但如果非农数据不及预期,市场情绪反转,变盘之快可能让人措手不及。毕竟华尔街的大空头们早已虎视眈眈,这段时间的空头布局也十分猖獗:\n\n E-mini标普500指数期货非商业头寸的净空仓再度大增,规模已经堪比2015年末石油危机和制造业衰退时期;美国银行证实了“聪明钱”的做空股市趋势,其“私人”高净值客户已经连续7周做空股市,而且上周的做空规模为6月19日以来最大;摩根士丹利最近的一份报告显示,其对冲基金客户持有的欧元Stoxx 50期货净空头头寸约达400亿美元;专业投资者持续抛售股票并购入黄金。美银美林的Michael Hartnett在报告中指出,过去四周资金独爱黄金。\n\n除了非农,还有更重要的事情\n大家都知道,不管行情怎么走,分析师总能找到解释的理由。毕竟,眼下市场有很多远比非农更加紧迫、更加复杂的风险因素:\n1、疫情二次爆发的风险\n鉴于美国国内形势,人群正在大规模聚集。美国外科医生杰罗姆·亚当斯(Jerome Adams)表示,“我们有充分的理由相信,新冠病毒可能再次大规模爆发”。\n景顺集团首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜•胡珀(Kristina Hooper)说:“我们必须担心感染可能再次爆发。这些抗议活动中的任何一场都可能是一场超级传播活动。”\n新冠疫情如果卷土重来,美国各州重新开封经济的计划将不得不取消。\n2、美联储利好效应正接近极限\n新加坡对冲基金戴蒙亚洲资本(Dymon Asia Capital)的创始合伙人Danny Yong表示,投资者很快就会发现,所谓的“美联储看跌期权”(Fed put)——即美联储将出手支持市场的概念,可能正接近极限。他说:\n\n 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