今日资本的个人主页 - 老虎社区

今日资本

今日资本

君子爱财，取之有道！

IP属地：江西

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2021-01-07

$500彩票网(WBAI)$$第九城市(NCTY)$$Bit Digital,Inc(BTBT)$现在是做空的最好时机

2021-02-27

$老虎证券(TIGR)$损失近百万！

2021-01-16

$老虎证券(TIGR)$没命赚这个钱

2021-01-01

$百世集团(BEST)$快递行业的耻辱

2020-09-19

$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$开始建仓，三年后看结果

2020-11-27

$一起教育科技(YQ)$重仓打新长线持有

2020-11-24

$Ozon Holdings PLC(OZON)$今晚会翻倍吗

2021-01-06

$Ozon Holdings PLC(OZON)$重仓买入

2020-11-29

$Ozon Holdings PLC(OZON)$3年长线持有五倍收益

2020-12-09

$Yalla Group(YALA)$又错失一次翻身的机会

2020-12-03

$蔚来(NIO)$最困难的时候说要破产，没拿住，错过了咸鱼翻身的绝好机会！

2020-11-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$再也不碰你了，垃圾中的极品。

2020-11-23

$爱彼迎(ABNB)$老虎证券能申购吗？

2021-01-27

$AMC院线(AMC)$错失良机

2020-11-22

$科兴生物(SVA)$怎么不能购买

2020-11-11

$研祥智能(02308)$错失几个亿

2020-08-25

$老虎证券(TIGR)$9月看到2美元。

2021-06-23

不知道是吃肉还是吃面。今年大面吃太多了

2020-12-31

$五菱汽车(00305)$错过一个亿

2020-12-29

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$连拼多多十分之一都不如

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13:26","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"深度解读！神舟12号，真正意义在这里","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187020597","media":"观察者网","summary":"今天，倍受关注的神舟十二号载人飞船发射成功。看上去，这次发射和以往的神舟发射没什么区别。但它却可能是人类载人航天领域二十多年来最重要的事件，其意义和影响可能要超过美国载人龙飞船的服役。为什么这样说呢？","content":"<p>今天，倍受关注的神舟十二号载人飞船发射成功。看上去，这次发射和以往的神舟发射没什么区别。但它却可能是人类载人航天领域二十多年来最重要的事件，其意义和影响可能要超过美国载人龙飞船的服役。为什么这样说呢？因为这次发射标志着太空格局的重大改变，具有历史性意义。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4ea55c708a185889a794d8b2e709189\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"682\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1090e6a4c1fe134de8773d6fea13be\" tg-width=\"1023\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/634ba35af0ac6faeb2f16e37c233bf16\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"1023\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">空间站已经有整整50年的漫长历史。如果从功能角度来划分，空间站大致可以分为试验型和实用型两种。前者以工程试验为主要目的，解决可行性问题。后者则将科学实验作为主要目的。</p>\n<p>礼炮一号和天空实验室分别是苏、美第一个试验型空间站。中国天宫一号目标飞行器在严格意义上也是一个试验型空间站。和平号、国际空间站和刚刚开始建设的中国空间站则分别是前苏联、美国（为主）和中国的第一个实用型空间站。到目前为止，中美俄是空间站的仅有玩家。</p>\n<p>人类离开地球开始在太空生活，从宏观视角看，无疑具有极其重要的历史意义。从微观角度，各国试验型和实用型空间站的首次载人任务，也是重要的历史时刻。我们来盘点一下。</p>\n<p>1971年6月6日，三名前苏联宇航员乘坐联盟11号飞船发射上天。次日，飞船和4月19日发射的世界上第一个空间站礼炮一号（大小和中国天和舱同级）实现对接。他们在空间站上生活了24天。但返回地面时发生了悲剧。由于座舱漏气，又没穿舱内宇航服，三名宇航员窒息而亡。这次任务创造了历史，但虎头蛇尾，令人唏嘘。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1026461f25bf3bdf7d23eb162db2594\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"739\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">礼炮一号，图片来源：wiki</p>\n<p>1973年5月23日，三名美国宇航员乘坐<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">阿波罗</a>飞船升空。9天前，一枚土星五号巨型火箭将重达82吨的天空实验室空间站送入了轨道。但发射过程中巨大的气动力将空间站一侧的太阳电池翼撕了下来，另一个则被卡住无法展开。为了挽救空间站，阿波罗宇航员在和天空实验室对接成功后马上进行了一次前所未有的太空修理舱外活动。他们将一面遮阳帆挡在了空间站一侧，使舱内的温度得以下降，同时展开了剩下的那块太阳帆板。离开地球28天后，他们凯旋而归。和礼炮一号首次任务相反，这是一次蛇头虎尾的任务。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5aabb49df20d2ff2faf59dcaaa89a122\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">天空实验室，图片来源：NASA</p>\n<p>1986年3月13日，两名前苏联宇航员乘坐联盟T-15号飞船升空，两天后与和平号空间站对接成功。和平号空间站核心舱于2月20日发射，是前苏联在六个礼炮号空间站（尤其是礼炮六号、七号两个长期生活空间站）积累的经验基础上研制的实用型模块化空间站。它对接的五个专用实验舱为大量实验创造了条件。至7月16日脱离和平号返回地球，他们在和平号上生活了四个月。</p>\n<p>期间他们还驾驶联盟飞船脱离和平号，来到即将退役的礼炮七号空间站，将因宇航员生病提前返回而留下的实验设备和重要物件带到和平号上继续利用。这次任务非常成功，为和平号长达15年的传奇生涯开了个好头。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd49465fab5676c5fc25a322e32a582\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">和平号空间站，图片来源：NASA</p>\n<p>1998年12月4日，奋进号航天飞机携带美国团结号节点舱和六名宇航员发射升空，两天后和国际空间站唯一在轨舱段曙光号对接，开启了国际空间站的在轨建造过程。然而，无论曙光号还是团结号，都没有支持宇航员生活的必要设施。奋进号机组在完成空间站建造任务后随航天飞机返回地面。</p>\n<p>此后两年，国际空间站大部分时间处于无人状态。直到2000年7月，俄罗斯星辰号核心舱发射成功并对接到国际空间站。该年11月2日，第一个长期机组才来到空间站，开始了至今已有20年的连续载人飞行。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/336c2ff208695f4a0f7dc530e9d0f406\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">国际空间站，图片来源：NASA</p>\n<p>2011年6月16日中国神舟9号载人飞船发射成功，随后在18日和天宫一号对接成功。三名宇航员景海鹏、刘旺、刘洋在太空生活了13天后返回地球，使中国成为第三个拥有空间站经验的国家。这次飞行从技术上说非常类似于1971年联盟11号的礼炮一号之行，只是中国完成得非常成功。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2aa9926fa51300810f8004b24f03a3\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">天宫一号缺乏在轨高清图片，图为与其外观基本相同的天宫二号，由伴星拍摄</p>\n<p>纵观这几个历史时刻，会发现一个有意思的事情，就是它们的时间间隔分别是2、13、12、13年。除了苏美最早的试验空间站间隔只有两年，其余均为十多年一次。最后一个时刻距今天也是十年。这说明空间站具有极高的门槛和难度，不是谁都能玩得起来的。再仔细看，前四个时刻苏美交替，后来则是中国。<b>很明显，太空中的格局或力量对比已经悄悄发生了变化。实力新玩家已经出现。</b></p>\n<p>今天神舟12的成功发射是又一个重要历史时刻。中国空间站是集历史上空间站经验之大成而设计的实用型空间站。神舟12的任务和1986年的联盟T-15号很相似，目的是为后续空间站的建造和利用开好一个局。</p>\n<p>和前面几个历史时刻一样，面对全新的空间站、全新的技术、全新的任务，第一个乘员组一定会遇到很多挑战。但请相信中国航天的实力。中国空间站比美苏第一个试验型空间站技术成熟得多，比和平号更完善，比国际空间站更有效。神舟12号一定会圆满完成任务。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2b9ad7ec83af364f4d73582b9fd71a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">中国空间站效果图</p>\n<p>神舟12号的成功发射及中国空间站的首次入驻和20多年前国际空间站的首次入驻具有相似的意义，都代表了人类在太空的持续存在。<b>所不同的是，这次是不同的国家，不同的人。它将改变几十年来美俄主导的太空格局。</b></p>\n<p>其实看看太空中的人口变迁也能印证这一点。</p>\n<p>1970年代后期随着礼炮六号的发射，太空中出现了长期生活在空间站的“常住居民”，那时是三个苏联人。</p>\n<p>1990年代，是美俄空间合作的蜜月期，美国宇航员进驻和平号。太空常住居民变为两个俄罗斯人、一个美国人。</p>\n<p>2001年国际空间站开始长期载人后仍然维持三人，国籍变为美俄欧日混杂，但美俄都至少维持一人。</p>\n<p>2009年国际空间站开始六人常驻，太空人口也增加到六人。去年，四座的载人龙飞船投入运行，常住太空人口再增一人至七人。</p>\n<p>神舟12号的发射，使得太空中的常住人口一下子增加到了两位数，十人！我们在太空中的人口比例已经不输美俄。</p>\n<p>我们从这里看到的，不仅是太空中力量对比的变化，也代表了国家综合实力的消长。太空只是一场历史性大变局的局部。我们正在亲历历史。祝福中国！</p>","source":"gczw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>深度解读！神舟12号，真正意义在这里</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n深度解读！神舟12号，真正意义在这里\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 13:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dhUIKASs_K9DfzhjsijdeA><strong>观察者网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天，倍受关注的神舟十二号载人飞船发射成功。看上去，这次发射和以往的神舟发射没什么区别。但它却可能是人类载人航天领域二十多年来最重要的事件，其意义和影响可能要超过美国载人龙飞船的服役。为什么这样说呢？因为这次发射标志着太空格局的重大改变，具有历史性意义。空间站已经有整整50年的漫长历史。如果从功能角度来划分，空间站大致可以分为试验型和实用型两种。前者以工程试验为主要目的，解决可行性问题。后者则将...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dhUIKASs_K9DfzhjsijdeA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5aabb49df20d2ff2faf59dcaaa89a122","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dhUIKASs_K9DfzhjsijdeA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187020597","content_text":"今天，倍受关注的神舟十二号载人飞船发射成功。看上去，这次发射和以往的神舟发射没什么区别。但它却可能是人类载人航天领域二十多年来最重要的事件，其意义和影响可能要超过美国载人龙飞船的服役。为什么这样说呢？因为这次发射标志着太空格局的重大改变，具有历史性意义。空间站已经有整整50年的漫长历史。如果从功能角度来划分，空间站大致可以分为试验型和实用型两种。前者以工程试验为主要目的，解决可行性问题。后者则将科学实验作为主要目的。\n礼炮一号和天空实验室分别是苏、美第一个试验型空间站。中国天宫一号目标飞行器在严格意义上也是一个试验型空间站。和平号、国际空间站和刚刚开始建设的中国空间站则分别是前苏联、美国（为主）和中国的第一个实用型空间站。到目前为止，中美俄是空间站的仅有玩家。\n人类离开地球开始在太空生活，从宏观视角看，无疑具有极其重要的历史意义。从微观角度，各国试验型和实用型空间站的首次载人任务，也是重要的历史时刻。我们来盘点一下。\n1971年6月6日，三名前苏联宇航员乘坐联盟11号飞船发射上天。次日，飞船和4月19日发射的世界上第一个空间站礼炮一号（大小和中国天和舱同级）实现对接。他们在空间站上生活了24天。但返回地面时发生了悲剧。由于座舱漏气，又没穿舱内宇航服，三名宇航员窒息而亡。这次任务创造了历史，但虎头蛇尾，令人唏嘘。礼炮一号，图片来源：wiki\n1973年5月23日，三名美国宇航员乘坐阿波罗飞船升空。9天前，一枚土星五号巨型火箭将重达82吨的天空实验室空间站送入了轨道。但发射过程中巨大的气动力将空间站一侧的太阳电池翼撕了下来，另一个则被卡住无法展开。为了挽救空间站，阿波罗宇航员在和天空实验室对接成功后马上进行了一次前所未有的太空修理舱外活动。他们将一面遮阳帆挡在了空间站一侧，使舱内的温度得以下降，同时展开了剩下的那块太阳帆板。离开地球28天后，他们凯旋而归。和礼炮一号首次任务相反，这是一次蛇头虎尾的任务。天空实验室，图片来源：NASA\n1986年3月13日，两名前苏联宇航员乘坐联盟T-15号飞船升空，两天后与和平号空间站对接成功。和平号空间站核心舱于2月20日发射，是前苏联在六个礼炮号空间站（尤其是礼炮六号、七号两个长期生活空间站）积累的经验基础上研制的实用型模块化空间站。它对接的五个专用实验舱为大量实验创造了条件。至7月16日脱离和平号返回地球，他们在和平号上生活了四个月。\n期间他们还驾驶联盟飞船脱离和平号，来到即将退役的礼炮七号空间站，将因宇航员生病提前返回而留下的实验设备和重要物件带到和平号上继续利用。这次任务非常成功，为和平号长达15年的传奇生涯开了个好头。和平号空间站，图片来源：NASA\n1998年12月4日，奋进号航天飞机携带美国团结号节点舱和六名宇航员发射升空，两天后和国际空间站唯一在轨舱段曙光号对接，开启了国际空间站的在轨建造过程。然而，无论曙光号还是团结号，都没有支持宇航员生活的必要设施。奋进号机组在完成空间站建造任务后随航天飞机返回地面。\n此后两年，国际空间站大部分时间处于无人状态。直到2000年7月，俄罗斯星辰号核心舱发射成功并对接到国际空间站。该年11月2日，第一个长期机组才来到空间站，开始了至今已有20年的连续载人飞行。国际空间站，图片来源：NASA\n2011年6月16日中国神舟9号载人飞船发射成功，随后在18日和天宫一号对接成功。三名宇航员景海鹏、刘旺、刘洋在太空生活了13天后返回地球，使中国成为第三个拥有空间站经验的国家。这次飞行从技术上说非常类似于1971年联盟11号的礼炮一号之行，只是中国完成得非常成功。天宫一号缺乏在轨高清图片，图为与其外观基本相同的天宫二号，由伴星拍摄\n纵观这几个历史时刻，会发现一个有意思的事情，就是它们的时间间隔分别是2、13、12、13年。除了苏美最早的试验空间站间隔只有两年，其余均为十多年一次。最后一个时刻距今天也是十年。这说明空间站具有极高的门槛和难度，不是谁都能玩得起来的。再仔细看，前四个时刻苏美交替，后来则是中国。很明显，太空中的格局或力量对比已经悄悄发生了变化。实力新玩家已经出现。\n今天神舟12的成功发射是又一个重要历史时刻。中国空间站是集历史上空间站经验之大成而设计的实用型空间站。神舟12的任务和1986年的联盟T-15号很相似，目的是为后续空间站的建造和利用开好一个局。\n和前面几个历史时刻一样，面对全新的空间站、全新的技术、全新的任务，第一个乘员组一定会遇到很多挑战。但请相信中国航天的实力。中国空间站比美苏第一个试验型空间站技术成熟得多，比和平号更完善，比国际空间站更有效。神舟12号一定会圆满完成任务。中国空间站效果图\n神舟12号的成功发射及中国空间站的首次入驻和20多年前国际空间站的首次入驻具有相似的意义，都代表了人类在太空的持续存在。所不同的是，这次是不同的国家，不同的人。它将改变几十年来美俄主导的太空格局。\n其实看看太空中的人口变迁也能印证这一点。\n1970年代后期随着礼炮六号的发射，太空中出现了长期生活在空间站的“常住居民”，那时是三个苏联人。\n1990年代，是美俄空间合作的蜜月期，美国宇航员进驻和平号。太空常住居民变为两个俄罗斯人、一个美国人。\n2001年国际空间站开始长期载人后仍然维持三人，国籍变为美俄欧日混杂，但美俄都至少维持一人。\n2009年国际空间站开始六人常驻，太空人口也增加到六人。去年，四座的载人龙飞船投入运行，常住太空人口再增一人至七人。\n神舟12号的发射，使得太空中的常住人口一下子增加到了两位数，十人！我们在太空中的人口比例已经不输美俄。\n我们从这里看到的，不仅是太空中力量对比的变化，也代表了国家综合实力的消长。太空只是一场历史性大变局的局部。我们正在亲历历史。祝福中国！","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353762167,"gmtCreate":1616538954159,"gmtModify":1616538954159,"author":{"id":"3434764364068041","authorId":"3434764364068041","name":"今日资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a586c5bef90b4307afcd972bafd5a02f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3434764364068041","authorIdStr":"3434764364068041"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最近一个月把去年一年的盈利全吐了出来。","listText":"最近一个月把去年一年的盈利全吐了出来。","text":"最近一个月把去年一年的盈利全吐了出来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353762167","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366088653,"gmtCreate":1614360463972,"gmtModify":1703476977218,"author":{"id":"3434764364068041","authorId":"3434764364068041","name":"今日资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a586c5bef90b4307afcd972bafd5a02f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3434764364068041","authorIdStr":"3434764364068041"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今日起获纳入港股通名单，明源云涨近10%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-07 11:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月7日消息，深交所公告，因恒生综合中型股指数实施成份股调整，根据《深圳证券交易所深港通业务实施办法》的有关规定，港股通股票名单发生调整并自今日起生效，调入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09668\">渤海银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09990\">祖龙娱乐</a>。</p><p>截至发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>涨9.63%，现报44.4点，最新市值855.7亿港元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09668\">渤海银行</a>跌10.22%，报4.92港元，最新市值305亿港元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09990\">祖龙娱乐</a>跌0.73%，报20.35港元，最新市值166亿港元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d6be18ea6d34b1fa154a4a30966e58b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5186cab81831068c6e5f019c6d5bdb08\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b93c8af3db139c5217a6541a799696\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"00909":"明源云","09668":"渤海银行"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2089099752","content_text":"12月7日消息，深交所公告，因恒生综合中型股指数实施成份股调整，根据《深圳证券交易所深港通业务实施办法》的有关规定，港股通股票名单发生调整并自今日起生效，调入明源云、渤海银行、祖龙娱乐。截至发稿，明源云涨9.63%，现报44.4点，最新市值855.7亿港元；渤海银行跌10.22%，报4.92港元，最新市值305亿港元；祖龙娱乐跌0.73%，报20.35港元，最新市值166亿港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396263393,"gmtCreate":1607127311312,"gmtModify":1703846642914,"author":{"id":"3434764364068041","authorId":"3434764364068041","name":"今日资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a586c5bef90b4307afcd972bafd5a02f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3434764364068041","authorIdStr":"3434764364068041"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"各种买菜","listText":"各种买菜","text":"各种买菜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396263393","repostId":"1120824845","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120824845","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1607090574,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120824845?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-04 22:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"淘宝上线“淘宝买菜”，刘强东亲自下场，社区团购鏖战正酣","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120824845","media":" 创业资本汇","summary":"一个平常的周六傍晚，在深圳某社区附近，一名年轻小伙儿站在人流最大的街口，每当行人路过，他就招呼道：“来下载一个‘美团买菜App’，水果蔬菜有折扣，下单还送礼品。”\n“最近这么多做生鲜的电商，你们打得过","content":"<p>一个平常的周六傍晚，在深圳某社区附近，一名年轻小伙儿站在人流最大的街口，每当行人路过，他就招呼道：“来下载一个‘美团买菜App’，水果蔬菜有折扣，下单还送礼品。”</p>\n<p>“最近这么多做生鲜的电商，你们打得过么？”证券时报记者问。</p>\n<p>小伙子指了指旁边的绿色易拉宝，上面印着美团买菜的logo，“这是资本爸爸，钱多。”</p>\n<p>的确如此，在各路互联网巨头带资入场后，生鲜电商最近又火了起来。美团买菜仍采用线上下单、送货到家的模式，而更为人所关注的，是美团优选、兴盛优选、多多买菜等平台聚集的社区团购赛场。</p>\n<p>在这场比赛中，巨头们的步伐仿佛以天计算，近期各家节奏更快，动作更显频繁。烧钱补贴可以快速抢占市场，而供应链的质量仍需更长时间打磨。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>互联网巨头下场社区团购</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>12月1日，手机淘宝和支付宝在湖北地区上线“淘宝买菜”业务，采用社区团购模式。这是阿里巴巴首次向社区团购业务开放核心流量资源。据证券时报记者了解，这项业务由盒马集市运营，同时与当地社区团购平台十荟团合作。</p>\n<p>阿里还同时领投了十荟团新一轮融资。11月30日，十荟团宣布完成1.96亿美元C3轮融资，由阿里巴巴与Jeneration Capital时代资本联合领投，昆仑资本、中金资本旗下基金、鼎晖投资、GGV纪源资本、愉悦资本、启明创投、渶策资本、高鹄资本跟投。此前十荟团的几轮融资中，阿里也多次参与。</p>\n<p>京东也传出了新动作。同在 11 月 30 日，刘强东在高管早会上提出会亲自下场带队，将带领京东打好社区团购一仗。目前，京东已经集中整合了其社区团购业务友家铺子、蛐蛐购和京东区区购，在京东大商超全渠道事业群下专门设置了社区团购业务部。</p>\n<p>时间再往前推，6月，滴滴推出了社区团购小程序“橙心优选”；7月，美团成立优选事业部，计划在年底前进入20个省份，实现“千城”覆盖；8月，拼多多开始在南昌和武汉城市试点多多买菜，并迅速扩张至全国大多数省份。</p>\n<p>巨头涌入，首先是看中生鲜电商这块大蛋糕。“整个生鲜领域的线上渗透率目前只有5%左右，主要渠道仍在农贸市场（占56%）和超市（占39%），而这个市场规模是非常大的，大概在2.5万亿的水平。”一位熟悉电商领域的分析师告诉证券时报记者。</p>\n<p>“此外，互联网流量红利日趋减少，获客成本增加，巨头借助生鲜市场能更好实现市场下沉，未来可以逐渐拓展品类，或为其他业务引流。”上述分析师表示。</p>\n<p>一些互联网巨头的主要业务确实逐渐逼近天花板，开拓新增长迫在眉睫。以美团为例，财报显示，美团交易用户数和活跃商家数连续三个季度增速不足10%，今年三季度用户年平均交易笔数仅增长0.9%至26.8笔。美团CEO王兴在财报会上表示，美团着力拓展新业务增加用户和使用黏性，新业务将在低线城市拓展更多的市场，其中美团优选是关键。</p>\n<p>刚刚收获上市后首季盈利的拼多多也面临成长空间的问题。“拼多多的用户数已经达到7亿3千多万人，增长逐渐减缓是不可避免的。”拼多多战略副总裁David Liu在财报电话会上解释称，现在最关注的问题是拼多多在用户心中的排行，这也是公司开展买菜业务的原因，想要去跟上用户行为的变化，扩大在用户心中的占比。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>短期拼团长流量，长期拼供应链质量</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>社区团购本质上是一种渠道创新，团长在其中扮演重要角色。团长通常是社区宝妈或周边小店老板，他们调动身边人脉，自建微信群分享特价商品链接，群内消费者通过小程序下单，平台收集当天订单后，次日将商品发至自提点（通常是团长家中或门店），再由消费者自提。</p>\n<p>团长能从运营群组的流水中抽佣，目前大概在10%左右，另外还有发展新团长及邀请新用户等奖励。</p>\n<p>通过这种“预售、次日达、自提”的模式，社区电商在牺牲一定的配送时效性后，压缩了履约成本，降低了生鲜库存损耗。据多家券商研究所测算，社区团购净利率能达到5%左右，而目前大多数生鲜电商仍在亏损状态。</p>\n<p>在抢占市场阶段，优质团长成为各家争夺的资源。一位在深圳的美团优选推广员工告诉证券时报记者，美团优选9月底在深圳组建团队，10月项目正式启动，两个月来已经招募了超过3万名团长，“我们每天都在冲刺，早上九点主管讲完任务，就开始各自行动，每人每天最少要拉5名团长，还是挺有压力的。”</p>\n<p>不过，消费者社群都掌握在团长手中，这也成为平台的一个隐忧。证券时报记者了解到，目前大多数团长都同时在做多个平台。“一些资源丰富的团长还会专门租下一间门店，四五家平台同时做，每日流水就能达到数千元。”上述美团优选员工称。</p>\n<p>前述分析师认为，消费者习惯成熟之后，巨头或将弱化团长在价值链上的角色，团长可能只负责分发配送等任务，“平台间挖来挖去，这种模式是对平台不利的，未来平台还是希望将流量握在自己手中。”</p>\n<p>长期来看，平台决胜关键仍在于稳定高效的供应链。“如果只是下游流量优势，但仓储供应链不能满足需求，那在运营过程中很多问题就会暴露出来。比如滴滴，先前在零售领域缺乏经验，橙心优选近期就出现不少爆单的情况。事实上，供应链需要长时间的磨合，才能优化履约体验。”开源证券商贸零售首席分析师黄泽鹏对证券时报记者表示。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><b>巨头会做“大而全”，但并不排除“小而美”</b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>实际上，社区团购并不是一个新鲜事。早在2015年前后，社区团购就在长沙等地区萌生。酝酿许久后，2018年，这一模式在资本推动下迎来井喷，邻邻壹、松鼠拼拼、十荟团等一批创业公司获得红杉中国、IDG、真格资本等一线创投机构青睐，百团大战开场。</p>\n<p>2019年，行业曾经历一次洗牌整合。松鼠拼拼陷倒闭风波、十荟团合并你我您、呆萝卜宣布资金链断裂，行业融资总额也相应回落。</p>\n<p>2020年初，疫情再次激活了社区团购市场，随后便是互联网巨头相继入局。</p>\n<p>“表面上看是疫情催化，但从市场发展的过程来看，现在社区团购的地位和前些年是不一样的。互联网巨头投入了大量资金，且将其放在战略层面上去做，其执行力更强，更能推动渗透率提升和消费者习惯养成。这会是生鲜领域一个比较大的变革。”前述分析师称。</p>\n<p>目前，业内普遍比较看好美团和拼多多在本地生活与下沉市场积累的经验，而刚刚入场的阿里、京东等玩家表现仍待观察。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，美团、拼多多、滴滴以及兴盛优选等玩家背后都有腾讯的投资，且由于社区团购模式的运营及购买多在微信群及小程序渠道完成，这意味着腾讯或将从这场战役中获得收益。“腾讯是最舒服的，自己并不亲自进场，而更像是一个幕后赢家。”黄泽鹏表示。</p>\n<p>日益成熟的生鲜电商或将夺去传统菜场的一些生意。“菜市场效率很低，链条更长且损耗更大，社区团购的效率高很多，但也未必会完全颠覆传统业态，因为消费者需求是多样的，线上购买生鲜的习惯就需要很长时间培养。”前述分析师表示。</p>\n<p>烧钱大战是否会催生出一个垄断平台？黄泽鹏认为，社区团购市场最终会逐步走向统一，但是市场很难做到被一家垄断。因为每个平台在配送、选品、客群定位等方面仍然会存在差异，“巨头进来会做‘大而全’，但也不排除‘小而美’，一些有特色或差异化竞争优势的平台，仍然会活得很滋润。”</p>\n<p>“相比于共享单车、网约车等领域，社区团购涉及的环节更多、操作难度更大、参与玩家也更多，因此这场战役可能不会很快结束。”开源证券商贸零售分析师李旭东说。</p>\n<p>对于消费者来说，远低于成本的价格会逐渐恢复到正常水平，但分析师普遍认为，社区团购的价格还是会比其他模式更低。此外，李旭东提醒，价格并非唯一的观察维度，品类丰富度本身也值得关注，“以前在线下，特别是在低线区域，很多东西可能是买不到的，这块需求被压制了，但社区团购将能够满足这一类的需求。”</p>","source":"lsy1568980439490","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-04 22:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SvHDamI1Bd8QiOxlmtg1iQ><strong> 创业资本汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一个平常的周六傍晚，在深圳某社区附近，一名年轻小伙儿站在人流最大的街口，每当行人路过，他就招呼道：“来下载一个‘美团买菜App’，水果蔬菜有折扣，下单还送礼品。”\n“最近这么多做生鲜的电商，你们打得过么？”证券时报记者问。\n小伙子指了指旁边的绿色易拉宝，上面印着美团买菜的logo，“这是资本爸爸，钱多。”\n的确如此，在各路互联网巨头带资入场后，生鲜电商最近又火了起来。美团买菜仍采用线上下单、送货到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SvHDamI1Bd8QiOxlmtg1iQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec6fcb0be65a3474e2eb275fde280471","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","JD":"京东","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SvHDamI1Bd8QiOxlmtg1iQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120824845","content_text":"一个平常的周六傍晚，在深圳某社区附近，一名年轻小伙儿站在人流最大的街口，每当行人路过，他就招呼道：“来下载一个‘美团买菜App’，水果蔬菜有折扣，下单还送礼品。”\n“最近这么多做生鲜的电商，你们打得过么？”证券时报记者问。\n小伙子指了指旁边的绿色易拉宝，上面印着美团买菜的logo，“这是资本爸爸，钱多。”\n的确如此，在各路互联网巨头带资入场后，生鲜电商最近又火了起来。美团买菜仍采用线上下单、送货到家的模式，而更为人所关注的，是美团优选、兴盛优选、多多买菜等平台聚集的社区团购赛场。\n在这场比赛中，巨头们的步伐仿佛以天计算，近期各家节奏更快，动作更显频繁。烧钱补贴可以快速抢占市场，而供应链的质量仍需更长时间打磨。\n\n\n\n互联网巨头下场社区团购\n\n\n\n12月1日，手机淘宝和支付宝在湖北地区上线“淘宝买菜”业务，采用社区团购模式。这是阿里巴巴首次向社区团购业务开放核心流量资源。据证券时报记者了解，这项业务由盒马集市运营，同时与当地社区团购平台十荟团合作。\n阿里还同时领投了十荟团新一轮融资。11月30日，十荟团宣布完成1.96亿美元C3轮融资，由阿里巴巴与Jeneration Capital时代资本联合领投，昆仑资本、中金资本旗下基金、鼎晖投资、GGV纪源资本、愉悦资本、启明创投、渶策资本、高鹄资本跟投。此前十荟团的几轮融资中，阿里也多次参与。\n京东也传出了新动作。同在 11 月 30 日，刘强东在高管早会上提出会亲自下场带队，将带领京东打好社区团购一仗。目前，京东已经集中整合了其社区团购业务友家铺子、蛐蛐购和京东区区购，在京东大商超全渠道事业群下专门设置了社区团购业务部。\n时间再往前推，6月，滴滴推出了社区团购小程序“橙心优选”；7月，美团成立优选事业部，计划在年底前进入20个省份，实现“千城”覆盖；8月，拼多多开始在南昌和武汉城市试点多多买菜，并迅速扩张至全国大多数省份。\n巨头涌入，首先是看中生鲜电商这块大蛋糕。“整个生鲜领域的线上渗透率目前只有5%左右，主要渠道仍在农贸市场（占56%）和超市（占39%），而这个市场规模是非常大的，大概在2.5万亿的水平。”一位熟悉电商领域的分析师告诉证券时报记者。\n“此外，互联网流量红利日趋减少，获客成本增加，巨头借助生鲜市场能更好实现市场下沉，未来可以逐渐拓展品类，或为其他业务引流。”上述分析师表示。\n一些互联网巨头的主要业务确实逐渐逼近天花板，开拓新增长迫在眉睫。以美团为例，财报显示，美团交易用户数和活跃商家数连续三个季度增速不足10%，今年三季度用户年平均交易笔数仅增长0.9%至26.8笔。美团CEO王兴在财报会上表示，美团着力拓展新业务增加用户和使用黏性，新业务将在低线城市拓展更多的市场，其中美团优选是关键。\n刚刚收获上市后首季盈利的拼多多也面临成长空间的问题。“拼多多的用户数已经达到7亿3千多万人，增长逐渐减缓是不可避免的。”拼多多战略副总裁David Liu在财报电话会上解释称，现在最关注的问题是拼多多在用户心中的排行，这也是公司开展买菜业务的原因，想要去跟上用户行为的变化，扩大在用户心中的占比。\n\n\n\n短期拼团长流量，长期拼供应链质量\n\n\n\n社区团购本质上是一种渠道创新，团长在其中扮演重要角色。团长通常是社区宝妈或周边小店老板，他们调动身边人脉，自建微信群分享特价商品链接，群内消费者通过小程序下单，平台收集当天订单后，次日将商品发至自提点（通常是团长家中或门店），再由消费者自提。\n团长能从运营群组的流水中抽佣，目前大概在10%左右，另外还有发展新团长及邀请新用户等奖励。\n通过这种“预售、次日达、自提”的模式，社区电商在牺牲一定的配送时效性后，压缩了履约成本，降低了生鲜库存损耗。据多家券商研究所测算，社区团购净利率能达到5%左右，而目前大多数生鲜电商仍在亏损状态。\n在抢占市场阶段，优质团长成为各家争夺的资源。一位在深圳的美团优选推广员工告诉证券时报记者，美团优选9月底在深圳组建团队，10月项目正式启动，两个月来已经招募了超过3万名团长，“我们每天都在冲刺，早上九点主管讲完任务，就开始各自行动，每人每天最少要拉5名团长，还是挺有压力的。”\n不过，消费者社群都掌握在团长手中，这也成为平台的一个隐忧。证券时报记者了解到，目前大多数团长都同时在做多个平台。“一些资源丰富的团长还会专门租下一间门店，四五家平台同时做，每日流水就能达到数千元。”上述美团优选员工称。\n前述分析师认为，消费者习惯成熟之后，巨头或将弱化团长在价值链上的角色，团长可能只负责分发配送等任务，“平台间挖来挖去，这种模式是对平台不利的，未来平台还是希望将流量握在自己手中。”\n长期来看，平台决胜关键仍在于稳定高效的供应链。“如果只是下游流量优势，但仓储供应链不能满足需求，那在运营过程中很多问题就会暴露出来。比如滴滴，先前在零售领域缺乏经验，橙心优选近期就出现不少爆单的情况。事实上，供应链需要长时间的磨合，才能优化履约体验。”开源证券商贸零售首席分析师黄泽鹏对证券时报记者表示。\n\n\n\n巨头会做“大而全”，但并不排除“小而美”\n\n\n\n实际上，社区团购并不是一个新鲜事。早在2015年前后，社区团购就在长沙等地区萌生。酝酿许久后，2018年，这一模式在资本推动下迎来井喷，邻邻壹、松鼠拼拼、十荟团等一批创业公司获得红杉中国、IDG、真格资本等一线创投机构青睐，百团大战开场。\n2019年，行业曾经历一次洗牌整合。松鼠拼拼陷倒闭风波、十荟团合并你我您、呆萝卜宣布资金链断裂，行业融资总额也相应回落。\n2020年初，疫情再次激活了社区团购市场，随后便是互联网巨头相继入局。\n“表面上看是疫情催化，但从市场发展的过程来看，现在社区团购的地位和前些年是不一样的。互联网巨头投入了大量资金，且将其放在战略层面上去做，其执行力更强，更能推动渗透率提升和消费者习惯养成。这会是生鲜领域一个比较大的变革。”前述分析师称。\n目前，业内普遍比较看好美团和拼多多在本地生活与下沉市场积累的经验，而刚刚入场的阿里、京东等玩家表现仍待观察。\n值得注意的是，美团、拼多多、滴滴以及兴盛优选等玩家背后都有腾讯的投资，且由于社区团购模式的运营及购买多在微信群及小程序渠道完成，这意味着腾讯或将从这场战役中获得收益。“腾讯是最舒服的，自己并不亲自进场，而更像是一个幕后赢家。”黄泽鹏表示。\n日益成熟的生鲜电商或将夺去传统菜场的一些生意。“菜市场效率很低，链条更长且损耗更大，社区团购的效率高很多，但也未必会完全颠覆传统业态，因为消费者需求是多样的，线上购买生鲜的习惯就需要很长时间培养。”前述分析师表示。\n烧钱大战是否会催生出一个垄断平台？黄泽鹏认为，社区团购市场最终会逐步走向统一，但是市场很难做到被一家垄断。因为每个平台在配送、选品、客群定位等方面仍然会存在差异，“巨头进来会做‘大而全’，但也不排除‘小而美’，一些有特色或差异化竞争优势的平台，仍然会活得很滋润。”\n“相比于共享单车、网约车等领域，社区团购涉及的环节更多、操作难度更大、参与玩家也更多，因此这场战役可能不会很快结束。”开源证券商贸零售分析师李旭东说。\n对于消费者来说，远低于成本的价格会逐渐恢复到正常水平，但分析师普遍认为，社区团购的价格还是会比其他模式更低。此外，李旭东提醒，价格并非唯一的观察维度，品类丰富度本身也值得关注，“以前在线下，特别是在低线区域，很多东西可能是买不到的，这块需求被压制了，但社区团购将能够满足这一类的需求。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396283585,"gmtCreate":1607123907747,"gmtModify":1703846629069,"author":{"id":"3434764364068041","authorId":"3434764364068041","name":"今日资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a586c5bef90b4307afcd972bafd5a02f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3434764364068041","authorIdStr":"3434764364068041"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等你回调","listText":"等你回调","text":"等你回调","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396283585","repostId":"1129039926","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129039926","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1607052306,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129039926?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-04 11:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股将回调？答YES的除了大摩，更有看跌40%的经济学家","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129039926","media":"智通财经","summary":"近日，美国股市各大指数屡创新高，纷纷引起各大机构的注意，但是，这样的上涨，也引起了一些分析师和经济学家的担心。然而，Wilson对此不以为然，他警告称，在2020年剩下的几个星期里，他看到了股市再次下跌的风险，这将是自9月份以来的第三次接近10%的调整。近日，Wilson再次警告称，美股股市已处于超买状态，并在近期飙升后将面临回调风险。最后，与11月一样，Wilson仍然看涨美股，他表示，股市遭到的任何抛售，或许都是买入良机。","content":"<p>近日，美国股市各大指数屡创新高，纷纷引起各大机构的注意，但是，这样的上涨，也引起了一些分析师和经济学家的担心。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Michael Wilson在近期警告，美国股市近期飙升之后已经超买，恐将面临回调风险。</p>\n<p>这位分析师在过去一年不断以不可思议的精准度把握了市场的拐点：在3月份危机最严重的时候，当大多数同行都认为美股目前处于末日般的境地时，该分析师开始看涨美股。</p>\n<p>而当他警告“为未来五周非常困难的交易环境做好准备”时（9月初科技股大跌之后），两周后，他再次正确预测美国股市将迎来数月来的第二次10%的调整：“投资者对于围绕美国大选结果的不确定性有点过于自满，我认为大选结果出炉和出现第二波卫生事件之前美国不太可能通过的财政刺激方案“。随后，标准普尔500指数下跌了9%，纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数分别下跌了10%和7%。</p>\n<p>之后，在11月初，该分析师改变了看跌的观点，并表示预期的调整目前已经基本结束，建议在股市进一步走弱时逐步加大投资。自那以后，标普指数和纳斯达克指数相继上涨了13.5%和10.8%，纷纷创下历史新高，罗素指数随后也暴涨了16%。</p>\n<p>此外，在一个月前，Wilson表示，尽管标普指数已突破3150至3550的价格区间，但他仍然坚称美股目前仍处于牛市，显然，大多数与疫苗相关的“好消息”都已经被逐步消化。但这并没有阻止股市继续上涨，因为市场注意力已经从疫苗逐渐转移到了国会有关财政刺激方案的辩论上。</p>\n<p>然而，Wilson对此不以为然，他警告称，在2020年剩下的几个星期里，他看到了股市再次下跌的风险，这将是自9月份以来的第三次接近10%的调整。市场也意识到“随着病例数和死亡人数的增加，疫苗在未来3-4个月内将无法进行大规模分发”这一“坏消息”将促进这一趋势的发展。不过，Wilson指出，如果在12月的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，美联储将延长购买TSY国债的期限，这甚至可能引发美联储进一步的宽松政策，从12个月的角度来看，将仍然看涨美国股市。</p>\n<p>因此，可以看到，Wilson认为重要的是，下跌风险并不是因为股市出现了大幅的上涨，而是10年期美债收益率的上升将冲击科技股和其他创下新高的股票，同时支撑着周期股和价值股。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc122054bc8df8e79c272684b2882c28\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"363\"></p>\n<p>该分析师表示：“鉴于经济学家预测明年美国名义GDP增长率为7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，1%的10年期美国国债的定价似乎并不是那么合理。这对股票估值将产生一定影响，尤其是像纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数长期股票的估值。相反，较短期限的周期性股票应该会从更好的增长和更高的利率中得到提振。因此，在过去几个月里，随着市场考虑全面重开经济，我们可以看到市场关注点逐渐从纳斯达克转移到了小盘股罗素2000。我们认为，如果我们对经济和利率的判断是正确的，这种转换将持续下去。”</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>策略师Robert Buckland也指出，预期美债的抛售将进一步推动成长股的涨势轮动到价值股，投资人将淡化不利的基本面因素，更关注明年的经济复苏，并预期美债收益率将走高。</p>\n<p>自那以后，10年期美债利率继续上涨，并在近期短暂触及到了11月以来的最高点0.96%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fb8091e9adb12d743f6f2f458f0974e\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"565\"></p>\n<p>近日，Wilson再次警告称，美股股市已处于超买状态，并在近期飙升后将面临回调风险。</p>\n<p>正如Wilson在一个月前所表示，大多数人都忽视的一个关键风险是，美国国债收益率正继续走高，这可能引发市场不安，进而推低股市。</p>\n<p>Wilson在接受采访时指出，“市场已经超买，而且坦率地说，市场估值可能有点过高，因为利率现在终于开始迎头赶上。市场当前面临的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率开始追赶上来，作为长期资产的股票，尤其是美国股票市场，估值将被重置。”</p>\n<p>而对于美股股市走向，各大机构近期也表达了各自的看法。三菱日联分析师Jonathan Butler表示，年末到来，美股继续高涨，市场会变得更倾向于风险，但市场面临着投资者获利了结的风险，并且美股非常依赖于疫苗的表现，实际利率和其它宏观环境则都是利好黄金的。</p>\n<p>著名的经济学家哈里.邓特认为，美国股市是一个巨大的泡沫，未来的一个月，美国股市可能从高点暴跌40%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席股票策略师Mislav Matejka罕见地首次下调了他对美股的看法：将美股评级下调至中性，将欧股评级上调至增持，该策略师给出的下调美股评级的理由是，今年的一些混乱在2021年将趋于稳定。</p>\n<p>尽管到目前为止，美股股市依然并没有表现出回调，也似乎没有表现出美债利率的上升对长期股票的冲击。但是零对冲认为，预计在未来几天或几周内，一旦10年期美债利率上升至1.0%以上时，这种情况就会发生改变。</p>\n<p>最后，与11月一样，Wilson仍然看涨美股，他表示，股市遭到的任何抛售，或许都是买入良机。“过去几周市场有点泡沫，”他说。“任何回调都会受到欢迎，这会使我更愿意投入资金。”</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股将回调？答YES的除了大摩，更有看跌40%的经济学家</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股将回调？答YES的除了大摩，更有看跌40%的经济学家\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-04 11:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/372805.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，美国股市各大指数屡创新高，纷纷引起各大机构的注意，但是，这样的上涨，也引起了一些分析师和经济学家的担心。\n摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson在近期警告，美国股市近期飙升之后已经超买，恐将面临回调风险。\n这位分析师在过去一年不断以不可思议的精准度把握了市场的拐点：在3月份危机最严重的时候，当大多数同行都认为美股目前处于末日般的境地时，该分析师开始看涨美股。\n而当他警告“为未来五周非常...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/372805.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/372805.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1129039926","content_text":"近日，美国股市各大指数屡创新高，纷纷引起各大机构的注意，但是，这样的上涨，也引起了一些分析师和经济学家的担心。\n摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson在近期警告，美国股市近期飙升之后已经超买，恐将面临回调风险。\n这位分析师在过去一年不断以不可思议的精准度把握了市场的拐点：在3月份危机最严重的时候，当大多数同行都认为美股目前处于末日般的境地时，该分析师开始看涨美股。\n而当他警告“为未来五周非常困难的交易环境做好准备”时（9月初科技股大跌之后），两周后，他再次正确预测美国股市将迎来数月来的第二次10%的调整：“投资者对于围绕美国大选结果的不确定性有点过于自满，我认为大选结果出炉和出现第二波卫生事件之前美国不太可能通过的财政刺激方案“。随后，标准普尔500指数下跌了9%，纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数分别下跌了10%和7%。\n之后，在11月初，该分析师改变了看跌的观点，并表示预期的调整目前已经基本结束，建议在股市进一步走弱时逐步加大投资。自那以后，标普指数和纳斯达克指数相继上涨了13.5%和10.8%，纷纷创下历史新高，罗素指数随后也暴涨了16%。\n此外，在一个月前，Wilson表示，尽管标普指数已突破3150至3550的价格区间，但他仍然坚称美股目前仍处于牛市，显然，大多数与疫苗相关的“好消息”都已经被逐步消化。但这并没有阻止股市继续上涨，因为市场注意力已经从疫苗逐渐转移到了国会有关财政刺激方案的辩论上。\n然而，Wilson对此不以为然，他警告称，在2020年剩下的几个星期里，他看到了股市再次下跌的风险，这将是自9月份以来的第三次接近10%的调整。市场也意识到“随着病例数和死亡人数的增加，疫苗在未来3-4个月内将无法进行大规模分发”这一“坏消息”将促进这一趋势的发展。不过，Wilson指出，如果在12月的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，美联储将延长购买TSY国债的期限，这甚至可能引发美联储进一步的宽松政策，从12个月的角度来看，将仍然看涨美国股市。\n因此，可以看到，Wilson认为重要的是，下跌风险并不是因为股市出现了大幅的上涨，而是10年期美债收益率的上升将冲击科技股和其他创下新高的股票，同时支撑着周期股和价值股。\n\n该分析师表示：“鉴于经济学家预测明年美国名义GDP增长率为7.5%，从12个月的角度来看，1%的10年期美国国债的定价似乎并不是那么合理。这对股票估值将产生一定影响，尤其是像纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数长期股票的估值。相反，较短期限的周期性股票应该会从更好的增长和更高的利率中得到提振。因此，在过去几个月里，随着市场考虑全面重开经济，我们可以看到市场关注点逐渐从纳斯达克转移到了小盘股罗素2000。我们认为，如果我们对经济和利率的判断是正确的，这种转换将持续下去。”\n花旗策略师Robert Buckland也指出，预期美债的抛售将进一步推动成长股的涨势轮动到价值股，投资人将淡化不利的基本面因素，更关注明年的经济复苏，并预期美债收益率将走高。\n自那以后，10年期美债利率继续上涨，并在近期短暂触及到了11月以来的最高点0.96%。\n\n近日，Wilson再次警告称，美股股市已处于超买状态，并在近期飙升后将面临回调风险。\n正如Wilson在一个月前所表示，大多数人都忽视的一个关键风险是，美国国债收益率正继续走高，这可能引发市场不安，进而推低股市。\nWilson在接受采访时指出，“市场已经超买，而且坦率地说，市场估值可能有点过高，因为利率现在终于开始迎头赶上。市场当前面临的风险是，随着10年期美债收益率开始追赶上来，作为长期资产的股票，尤其是美国股票市场，估值将被重置。”\n而对于美股股市走向，各大机构近期也表达了各自的看法。三菱日联分析师Jonathan Butler表示，年末到来，美股继续高涨，市场会变得更倾向于风险，但市场面临着投资者获利了结的风险，并且美股非常依赖于疫苗的表现，实际利率和其它宏观环境则都是利好黄金的。\n著名的经济学家哈里.邓特认为，美国股市是一个巨大的泡沫，未来的一个月，美国股市可能从高点暴跌40%。\n摩根大通首席股票策略师Mislav 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