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守的云开见日月
08-22 19:53
$英伟达(NVDA)$
我个人感觉,他们财报看着还行,但要说特别好,那可能还得打个问号。如果财报真的亮瞎眼,那黄仁勋大佬何必在之前就急着抛?以前他都是瞅着高点出手的,这次却提前行动了,这里面肯定有点道道儿。
守的云开见日月
05-21
$蔚来(NIO)$
看现在这行情,蔚来汽车下半年旺季时候,一个月卖出3万辆不成问题,如果再加上乐道的话,一个月能卖出4万辆。在纯电车的品牌里头,蔚来营收上会是最厉害的,一年1000亿很快能达到。
守的云开见日月
2023-05-15
$Fortuna Silver Mines Inc(FSM)$
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (FSM) 是一家加拿大上市公司,成立于2005年,总部位于温哥华。公司主要从事黄金和银的开采、探索和开发业务。公司的主要矿区包括墨西哥的San Jose矿山和Peru的Caylloma矿山。作为一家独立的开发商,公司在其运营的矿区内拥有一些银矿和金矿资源,并已实现了可持续增长。这个公司通过在金银矿山的运营中实践可持续发展的原则,取得了不错的经营业绩~
守的云开见日月
04-30
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
各位股友,你们有谁敢打个赌,就赌以特斯拉的robotaxi业务为赌注,看看到2025年底,特斯拉能不能在美国半数州成功开通并实际运营robotaxi。赌注一万rmb,高了我怕你们付不起,只接受第一个应约的。
守的云开见日月
08-22 20:28
$拼多多(PDD)$
多多买菜故意卖“烂瓜”还强行不给退。你退到自提点,团长都亲眼所见,白纸黑字写了情况属实,结果拼多多直接把你的退款申请给毙了。。。
守的云开见日月
2023-04-19
$美国铝业(AA)$
美国铝业公司从事铝土矿、氧化铝和铝产品的生产。它通过以下部分进行操作:铝土矿、氧化铝和铝。铝土矿部门代表着该公司的全球铝土矿开采业务。氧化铝部门包括该公司的全球精炼系统,该系统将铝土矿加工成氧化铝。铝业将冶炼和铸造业务相结合,生产原铝。熔炼操作产生熔融的原铝,然后通过铸造操作形成铸锭或增值锭产品,包括钢坯、棒材和板坯。该公司由查尔斯·马丁·霍尔于1886年7月9日创立,总部设在宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡。美国铝业公司在铝土矿、氧化铝和铝产品方面积累了丰富的经验和技术。它的业务涵盖了全球,具有很强的市场竞争力。作为一个制造商,该公司的冶炼和铸造业务结合得非常好,可以有效地提高产品质量和生产效率。总体而言,美国铝业公司是一个值得不错的公司,在业内拥有很好的声誉。
守的云开见日月
07-17
$游戏驿站(GME)$
昨晚那游戏驿站的股票噌噌往上涨,结果连带着那些PUT的价格也跟着水涨船高。这事儿,真是够邪门,也真够神奇的!
守的云开见日月
05-31
$拼多多(PDD)$
其实阿里京东采购这块人性阻力是很大的,不过拼多多这小伙子可是聪明得很,他直接祭出了“绝对低价”这把利剑,一下子就把这沟通难题给解决了。商家们都是追求利润的,但有时候价格太高,消费者不买账,沟通起来就费劲。而拼多多呢,直接开出让人难以拒绝的低价,这样商家们就愿意跟他合作了,消费者也买得开心。这样一来,沟通问题就迎刃而解了。所以拼多多能在电商格局已经定了的情况下还能破局而出,不是没有道理的。他懂得抓住人性的弱点,用最简单直接的方式解决问题。这就是他的厉害之处。
守的云开见日月
2023-06-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
6月15日,蔚来ET5旅行版正式上市,2款配置车型,售价分别为29.80和35.60万元!不得不给蔚来泼一盆冷水,因为旅行车在中国太难卖了,一类车型能否在市场上流行起来,取决于当地消费者对这对汽车有没有硬性的需求。轿车、SUV在国内能够得到广泛流传,是因为这两类车型满足了绝大多数人对家用汽车在空间和性能方面的要求,并且价格相对也能够让人接受。而旅行车是一类提升人们生活品质的车型,有和没有对人们的生活影响并不大。并且旅行车的价格比普通私家车的价格还贵,如果要贴合经济实用、空间大的实际用车需求,轿车和SUV一定是大家的首选,在中国旅行车市场,依旧是小众爱好者的狂欢。大家觉得这次蔚来ET5能打破这个魔咒吗?[doge]
守的云开见日月
06-26
$英伟达(NVDA)$
今晚这高开低走的走势,我继续看空这家科技巨头。英伟达在数据中心业务领域确实是领头羊,但英特尔等竞争对手也不是吃素的,他们也在不断加大投入,试图缩小与英伟达的差距。在这个竞争激烈的市场中,英伟达要想保持领先地位,可不容易。
守的云开见日月
07-17
$腾讯控股(00700)$
说起企鹅,它还是那只稳坐钓鱼台的大鹅,但市场里头已经有人按捺不住,上蹿下跳地热闹起来了。我的老观点不变,腾讯在守护股东钱包这块,绝对是靠谱的。港交所新规矩一出,说公司买回来的自家股票可以先不急着销掉,存着当库存用。可腾讯这家伙,人家不这么干,回购来的股票,照旧注销,干净利落,这说明啥?诚意满满啊。再说,如果有人觉得腾讯回购只是为了应对大股东那点小动作,那真是小瞧了它的格局。看看这回购力度,从“腾三亿”直接升级到“腾十亿”,这可不是闹着玩的,完全是对自家未来信心满满,砸钱都是眼睛都不眨一下。当然,我也希望企鹅股价能保持横盘,或者继续上涨,不过倒不用的涨太快。
守的云开见日月
05-27
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
法拉第未来现在可是排名第五,它现在已经超越了大家熟悉的GameStop和AMC这两大热门股票。看来FFIE的势头可是越来越猛了,得好好关注一下它的未来发展了。
守的云开见日月
07-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
真是让人不得不服,就算外面有多少人在那儿唱衰,喊空声一片,蔚来这家伙就像是有股子倔强劲儿,愣是要把它的真实价值给彰显出来,回归正道。蔚来这股子实力,就像是大浪淘沙后的金子,闪闪发光,挡都挡不住。
守的云开见日月
06-17
$美团-W(03690)$
花了几个月时间去玩美团视频,连提现那点儿小九九都摸清楚了。跟多多视频比起来,美团这边儿确实实诚不少,但多多视频那边儿购物能加速提现,这点儿美团比不上。美团视频里最后一分钱,得用50万个金币去换,这太坑了!真的,得自己用了才晓得这产品能不能打。目前看来,美团视频竞争力不咋地,也没啥大方向,听说用户时长也提不上去,估计早晚得被弱化或者直接下架。多多视频这边内容有差异,思路也清晰,多多团队那执行力,真的让人佩服,虽然套路多,但人家把人性都摸透了,这点儿不得不服。
守的云开见日月
06-06
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
有人觉得他们发CB就像是在稀释股权来回购,那回购效果就大打折扣了。但我不这么看,觉得这是个好事。这CB票期限长达7年,而且换购价还溢价了30%到35%,年利率超低,才0.25%到0.75%。你想啊,如果股价涨得不多,少于30%到35%,那公司回购就只要付那么点利息,多划算。再说,如果股价猛涨,超过那30%到35%,别人肯定愿意换股,那现在买还有啥好抱怨的?要是8月份他们真能在港股双重上市,进入港股通,按现在的股价,北方的资金估计得抢疯了。而且软银都清仓了,这股票的做空空间就小了,到时候股价很容易就上去了。现在大家都觉得这是垃圾股,但预期差大得很。你随便搞点几个月后的call,那赔率和胜率都不比买彩票值?
守的云开见日月
07-31
$英伟达(NVDA)$
日元加息,这对美股可不是啥好消息,利空啊利空!看这架势,一大波拆仓的怕是要汹涌而来了。还是悠着点儿,别跟这风浪硬碰硬,先撤为妙,保住本金要紧,安全第一!
守的云开见日月
06-14
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
讲讲阿里巴巴的投资情况。投资饿了么,砸了665亿进去,结果是大亏;苏宁易购也投了200亿,也是亏得不行;盒马生鲜,亏了好几百亿;大润发也砸了几百亿,还是巨亏;优酷和土豆加起来花了不少钱,但也是亏;恒大足球,投了12亿,也是血亏;不过,投资饿了么是为了搞新零售生态,扩大饿了么的优势。投苏宁是为了线上线下一起赚钱,家电电商也搞大点。优酷是为了抓数字娱乐市场,电视不行了网络电视火,整合业务生态圈。高德可能是最成功的了,虽然也亏,但它对阿里很重要,就像菜鸟一样。可惜大家都盯着失败的项目。阿里巴巴收购公司总喜欢让人按他们的想法来,这方面还是马化腾聪明,投资就为了赚钱。但阿里巴巴和腾讯模式不一样,一个是拉流量,一个是给流量。对企业态度也不同,阿里喜欢掌控,腾讯只要分红。虽然结果有差距,但各自的价值不能否认。阿里转账方便,腾讯通讯便宜,各有各的好处。这些年,阿里巴巴投的项目确实亏了不少,基本没啥赚的。看了这投资成绩单,你是不是也觉得今年钱更难挣了?
守的云开见日月
2023-06-27
$英伟达(NVDA)$
人民币汇率拉升,港股对此的反应更直接。进入下半年,尤其是半年报公布季,业绩预期将是结构演绎的主要变量。美股科技股及英伟达见顶迹象明显,AI概念股退潮没有悬念,退出的资金会逐步流向低估值板块,被过分抛售的部分消费和医药将至少迎来估值修复的机会。人民币是反弹还是翻转还不能确认,但迟早是要翻转的。
守的云开见日月
2023-05-04
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
骗局的成功,主要体现在:持续时间足够长,受骗者多批次迭代,早出局的人能够在晚出局的人的遭遇中得到安慰,无论什么时候出局都要下很大的决心——担心自己出局后会反转。技战术方面,jiojio在乐视网主要靠钻停牌制度的空子,在FF则主要利用美股建立在较高道德底线上的市场化规则。
守的云开见日月
2023-04-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$比亚迪(002594)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
昨天跟一个汽车行业的朋友聊天,梳理了几点思路:一是汽车行业的大趋势就是新能源汽车取代燃油车,这已经是不可逆转的大趋势了,至于取代的速度,很可能会超出市场预期,因为燃油车的供应链和经销商体系支撑不了打持久战。二是新能源车行业中的寡头格局已经非常明确了,就是比亚迪和特斯拉,因为其他车企距离50万辆的年销量都很远,距离100万辆更是遥不可及,在汽车行业这样一个规模效应极为突出的行业里边,没有规模意味着没有竞争力。三是L5及L4自动驾驶可能需要十年甚至更久才能实现,因为十年也不过是业内拍脑袋随口一说,需要多久没人知道,这意味着十年内都不太可能有车企可以凭借自动驾驶实现弯道超车,意味着接下来所有新能源车企依然需要依靠提升产品力、降低成本来扩大市场份额,这将导致新能源车行业的寡头格局进一步固定化。四是比亚迪和特斯拉的竞争问题。在短期内自动驾驶无法实现的背景下,特斯拉在提升产品力、降低成本方面将全面落后于比亚迪,比亚迪的全球份额将进一步提升,特斯拉处于跟随状态。长期看,比亚迪和特斯拉的市值差距将缩小甚至消失。我们猜测,苹果公司之所以不再大手笔投入造车,其实也是看到了自动驾驶遥不可及的未来,这个阶段过多投入很可能成为“先烈”。这同样导致新能源车行业的寡头格局进一步固定化。
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又玩起了上次那套低调增发的把戏?就像上次悄悄摸摸多发了4个亿一样,这次是不是又因为财报还没出炉,就打算趁着大家不注意,又整出个40多亿的增发大计?然后到了16号,再来个合股操作,这一波操作下来,简直是把利益最大化玩得飞起。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338787434733744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4179088252577452","authorId":"4179088252577452","authorIdStr":"4179088252577452","name":"節瓜咁大條","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"现在这股价增发能得多少钱?谁会接这个增发都是问题","text":"现在这股价增发能得多少钱?谁会接这个增发都是问题","html":"现在这股价增发能得多少钱?谁会接这个增发都是问题"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338421133386224,"gmtCreate":1723632216650,"gmtModify":1723632221824,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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看现在这行情,蔚来汽车下半年旺季时候,一个月卖出3万辆不成问题,如果再加上乐道的话,一个月能卖出4万辆。在纯电车的品牌里头,蔚来营收上会是最厉害的,一年1000亿很快能达到。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792bba1f6136e0eb2181ed18cc90aee5","width":"771","height":"677"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308315369320472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499991462839356","authorId":"3499991462839356","authorIdStr":"3499991462839356","name":"蔚来将至","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d531e1c2b5db2376f9007a5097cf483","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我还等着股价上三位数,我在这个轮回还能等到吗...","text":"我还等着股价上三位数,我在这个轮回还能等到吗...","html":"我还等着股价上三位数,我在这个轮回还能等到吗..."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":652066610,"gmtCreate":1684154550131,"gmtModify":1684154552023,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 6月15日,蔚来ET5旅行版正式上市,2款配置车型,售价分别为29.80和35.60万元!不得不给蔚来泼一盆冷水,因为旅行车在中国太难卖了,一类车型能否在市场上流行起来,取决于当地消费者对这对汽车有没有硬性的需求。轿车、SUV在国内能够得到广泛流传,是因为这两类车型满足了绝大多数人对家用汽车在空间和性能方面的要求,并且价格相对也能够让人接受。而旅行车是一类提升人们生活品质的车型,有和没有对人们的生活影响并不大。并且旅行车的价格比普通私家车的价格还贵,如果要贴合经济实用、空间大的实际用车需求,轿车和SUV一定是大家的首选,在中国旅行车市场,依旧是小众爱好者的狂欢。大家觉得这次蔚来ET5能打破这个魔咒吗?[doge]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 6月15日,蔚来ET5旅行版正式上市,2款配置车型,售价分别为29.80和35.60万元!不得不给蔚来泼一盆冷水,因为旅行车在中国太难卖了,一类车型能否在市场上流行起来,取决于当地消费者对这对汽车有没有硬性的需求。轿车、SUV在国内能够得到广泛流传,是因为这两类车型满足了绝大多数人对家用汽车在空间和性能方面的要求,并且价格相对也能够让人接受。而旅行车是一类提升人们生活品质的车型,有和没有对人们的生活影响并不大。并且旅行车的价格比普通私家车的价格还贵,如果要贴合经济实用、空间大的实际用车需求,轿车和SUV一定是大家的首选,在中国旅行车市场,依旧是小众爱好者的狂欢。大家觉得这次蔚来ET5能打破这个魔咒吗?[doge]","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 6月15日,蔚来ET5旅行版正式上市,2款配置车型,售价分别为29.80和35.60万元!不得不给蔚来泼一盆冷水,因为旅行车在中国太难卖了,一类车型能否在市场上流行起来,取决于当地消费者对这对汽车有没有硬性的需求。轿车、SUV在国内能够得到广泛流传,是因为这两类车型满足了绝大多数人对家用汽车在空间和性能方面的要求,并且价格相对也能够让人接受。而旅行车是一类提升人们生活品质的车型,有和没有对人们的生活影响并不大。并且旅行车的价格比普通私家车的价格还贵,如果要贴合经济实用、空间大的实际用车需求,轿车和SUV一定是大家的首选,在中国旅行车市场,依旧是小众爱好者的狂欢。大家觉得这次蔚来ET5能打破这个魔咒吗?[doge]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be7f768d7884985ad6b104830c5a98e4","width":"64","height":"64"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187733741412416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499079576956205","authorId":"3499079576956205","authorIdStr":"3499079576956205","name":"yashekuangre","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932113d86da547844e4cf52942f7cddd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"不懂问一句,旅行车最关键的性能是不是负载尽可能重(旅行要带很多东西)的前提下保证续航足够远?(都开旅行车了,那得跑远一些的地方吧。","text":"不懂问一句,旅行车最关键的性能是不是负载尽可能重(旅行要带很多东西)的前提下保证续航足够远?(都开旅行车了,那得跑远一些的地方吧。","html":"不懂问一句,旅行车最关键的性能是不是负载尽可能重(旅行要带很多东西)的前提下保证续航足够远?(都开旅行车了,那得跑远一些的地方吧。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321041566072928,"gmtCreate":1719407871721,"gmtModify":1719407876116,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>今晚这高开低走的走势,我继续看空这家科技巨头。英伟达在数据中心业务领域确实是领头羊,但英特尔等竞争对手也不是吃素的,他们也在不断加大投入,试图缩小与英伟达的差距。在这个竞争激烈的市场中,英伟达要想保持领先地位,可不容易。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>今晚这高开低走的走势,我继续看空这家科技巨头。英伟达在数据中心业务领域确实是领头羊,但英特尔等竞争对手也不是吃素的,他们也在不断加大投入,试图缩小与英伟达的差距。在这个竞争激烈的市场中,英伟达要想保持领先地位,可不容易。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今晚这高开低走的走势,我继续看空这家科技巨头。英伟达在数据中心业务领域确实是领头羊,但英特尔等竞争对手也不是吃素的,他们也在不断加大投入,试图缩小与英伟达的差距。在这个竞争激烈的市场中,英伟达要想保持领先地位,可不容易。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e94dc6fd0258dd287b45d6e611b300d","width":"302","height":"304"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321041566072928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3478190524784701","authorId":"3478190524784701","authorIdStr":"3478190524784701","name":"乐哥哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"英特尔拿什么追,拿印度人吗?什么时候印度人高管批量离开英特尔,才是入英特尔的好机会","text":"英特尔拿什么追,拿印度人吗?什么时候印度人高管批量离开英特尔,才是入英特尔的好机会","html":"英特尔拿什么追,拿印度人吗?什么时候印度人高管批量离开英特尔,才是入英特尔的好机会"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328435518857488,"gmtCreate":1721207320051,"gmtModify":1721207323562,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>说起企鹅,它还是那只稳坐钓鱼台的大鹅,但市场里头已经有人按捺不住,上蹿下跳地热闹起来了。我的老观点不变,腾讯在守护股东钱包这块,绝对是靠谱的。港交所新规矩一出,说公司买回来的自家股票可以先不急着销掉,存着当库存用。可腾讯这家伙,人家不这么干,回购来的股票,照旧注销,干净利落,这说明啥?诚意满满啊。再说,如果有人觉得腾讯回购只是为了应对大股东那点小动作,那真是小瞧了它的格局。看看这回购力度,从“腾三亿”直接升级到“腾十亿”,这可不是闹着玩的,完全是对自家未来信心满满,砸钱都是眼睛都不眨一下。当然,我也希望企鹅股价能保持横盘,或者继续上涨,不过倒不用的涨太快。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>说起企鹅,它还是那只稳坐钓鱼台的大鹅,但市场里头已经有人按捺不住,上蹿下跳地热闹起来了。我的老观点不变,腾讯在守护股东钱包这块,绝对是靠谱的。港交所新规矩一出,说公司买回来的自家股票可以先不急着销掉,存着当库存用。可腾讯这家伙,人家不这么干,回购来的股票,照旧注销,干净利落,这说明啥?诚意满满啊。再说,如果有人觉得腾讯回购只是为了应对大股东那点小动作,那真是小瞧了它的格局。看看这回购力度,从“腾三亿”直接升级到“腾十亿”,这可不是闹着玩的,完全是对自家未来信心满满,砸钱都是眼睛都不眨一下。当然,我也希望企鹅股价能保持横盘,或者继续上涨,不过倒不用的涨太快。","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 说起企鹅,它还是那只稳坐钓鱼台的大鹅,但市场里头已经有人按捺不住,上蹿下跳地热闹起来了。我的老观点不变,腾讯在守护股东钱包这块,绝对是靠谱的。港交所新规矩一出,说公司买回来的自家股票可以先不急着销掉,存着当库存用。可腾讯这家伙,人家不这么干,回购来的股票,照旧注销,干净利落,这说明啥?诚意满满啊。再说,如果有人觉得腾讯回购只是为了应对大股东那点小动作,那真是小瞧了它的格局。看看这回购力度,从“腾三亿”直接升级到“腾十亿”,这可不是闹着玩的,完全是对自家未来信心满满,砸钱都是眼睛都不眨一下。当然,我也希望企鹅股价能保持横盘,或者继续上涨,不过倒不用的涨太快。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328435518857488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4099470509812690","authorId":"4099470509812690","authorIdStr":"4099470509812690","name":"一只没有耳朵一只没有尾巴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"回购注销只是支撑股价,但绝对是损害股东利益。","text":"回购注销只是支撑股价,但绝对是损害股东利益。","html":"回购注销只是支撑股价,但绝对是损害股东利益。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310432342896688,"gmtCreate":1716807668601,"gmtModify":1716807670107,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>法拉第未来现在可是排名第五,它现在已经超越了大家熟悉的GameStop和AMC这两大热门股票。看来FFIE的势头可是越来越猛了,得好好关注一下它的未来发展了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>法拉第未来现在可是排名第五,它现在已经超越了大家熟悉的GameStop和AMC这两大热门股票。看来FFIE的势头可是越来越猛了,得好好关注一下它的未来发展了。","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 法拉第未来现在可是排名第五,它现在已经超越了大家熟悉的GameStop和AMC这两大热门股票。看来FFIE的势头可是越来越猛了,得好好关注一下它的未来发展了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310432342896688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326483725688832,"gmtCreate":1720710554312,"gmtModify":1720710556136,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>真是让人不得不服,就算外面有多少人在那儿唱衰,喊空声一片,蔚来这家伙就像是有股子倔强劲儿,愣是要把它的真实价值给彰显出来,回归正道。蔚来这股子实力,就像是大浪淘沙后的金子,闪闪发光,挡都挡不住。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>真是让人不得不服,就算外面有多少人在那儿唱衰,喊空声一片,蔚来这家伙就像是有股子倔强劲儿,愣是要把它的真实价值给彰显出来,回归正道。蔚来这股子实力,就像是大浪淘沙后的金子,闪闪发光,挡都挡不住。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 真是让人不得不服,就算外面有多少人在那儿唱衰,喊空声一片,蔚来这家伙就像是有股子倔强劲儿,愣是要把它的真实价值给彰显出来,回归正道。蔚来这股子实力,就像是大浪淘沙后的金子,闪闪发光,挡都挡不住。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326483725688832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3525829015843207","authorId":"3525829015843207","authorIdStr":"3525829015843207","name":"飞天灵","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"干吹没用啊,亏损没一点减少迹象 乐道要是出增程,还能续命,现在是加速死亡,看着吧","text":"干吹没用啊,亏损没一点减少迹象 乐道要是出增程,还能续命,现在是加速死亡,看着吧","html":"干吹没用啊,亏损没一点减少迹象 乐道要是出增程,还能续命,现在是加速死亡,看着吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317919561838648,"gmtCreate":1718625210039,"gmtModify":1718630553064,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>花了几个月时间去玩美团视频,连提现那点儿小九九都摸清楚了。跟多多视频比起来,美团这边儿确实实诚不少,但多多视频那边儿购物能加速提现,这点儿美团比不上。美团视频里最后一分钱,得用50万个金币去换,这太坑了!真的,得自己用了才晓得这产品能不能打。目前看来,美团视频竞争力不咋地,也没啥大方向,听说用户时长也提不上去,估计早晚得被弱化或者直接下架。多多视频这边内容有差异,思路也清晰,多多团队那执行力,真的让人佩服,虽然套路多,但人家把人性都摸透了,这点儿不得不服。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>花了几个月时间去玩美团视频,连提现那点儿小九九都摸清楚了。跟多多视频比起来,美团这边儿确实实诚不少,但多多视频那边儿购物能加速提现,这点儿美团比不上。美团视频里最后一分钱,得用50万个金币去换,这太坑了!真的,得自己用了才晓得这产品能不能打。目前看来,美团视频竞争力不咋地,也没啥大方向,听说用户时长也提不上去,估计早晚得被弱化或者直接下架。多多视频这边内容有差异,思路也清晰,多多团队那执行力,真的让人佩服,虽然套路多,但人家把人性都摸透了,这点儿不得不服。","text":"$美团-W(03690)$ 花了几个月时间去玩美团视频,连提现那点儿小九九都摸清楚了。跟多多视频比起来,美团这边儿确实实诚不少,但多多视频那边儿购物能加速提现,这点儿美团比不上。美团视频里最后一分钱,得用50万个金币去换,这太坑了!真的,得自己用了才晓得这产品能不能打。目前看来,美团视频竞争力不咋地,也没啥大方向,听说用户时长也提不上去,估计早晚得被弱化或者直接下架。多多视频这边内容有差异,思路也清晰,多多团队那执行力,真的让人佩服,虽然套路多,但人家把人性都摸透了,这点儿不得不服。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317919561838648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3514419179304562","authorId":"3514419179304562","authorIdStr":"3514419179304562","name":"自由来自造物主","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95efd4d2e410bb0dd95dde84060c146e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"嗯,开始有人拿它跟多多视频比就是进步","text":"嗯,开始有人拿它跟多多视频比就是进步","html":"嗯,开始有人拿它跟多多视频比就是进步"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314030797807712,"gmtCreate":1717687815897,"gmtModify":1717750767295,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>有人觉得他们发CB就像是在稀释股权来回购,那回购效果就大打折扣了。但我不这么看,觉得这是个好事。这CB票期限长达7年,而且换购价还溢价了30%到35%,年利率超低,才0.25%到0.75%。你想啊,如果股价涨得不多,少于30%到35%,那公司回购就只要付那么点利息,多划算。再说,如果股价猛涨,超过那30%到35%,别人肯定愿意换股,那现在买还有啥好抱怨的?要是8月份他们真能在港股双重上市,进入港股通,按现在的股价,北方的资金估计得抢疯了。而且软银都清仓了,这股票的做空空间就小了,到时候股价很容易就上去了。现在大家都觉得这是垃圾股,但预期差大得很。你随便搞点几个月后的call,那赔率和胜率都不比买彩票值?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>有人觉得他们发CB就像是在稀释股权来回购,那回购效果就大打折扣了。但我不这么看,觉得这是个好事。这CB票期限长达7年,而且换购价还溢价了30%到35%,年利率超低,才0.25%到0.75%。你想啊,如果股价涨得不多,少于30%到35%,那公司回购就只要付那么点利息,多划算。再说,如果股价猛涨,超过那30%到35%,别人肯定愿意换股,那现在买还有啥好抱怨的?要是8月份他们真能在港股双重上市,进入港股通,按现在的股价,北方的资金估计得抢疯了。而且软银都清仓了,这股票的做空空间就小了,到时候股价很容易就上去了。现在大家都觉得这是垃圾股,但预期差大得很。你随便搞点几个月后的call,那赔率和胜率都不比买彩票值?","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 有人觉得他们发CB就像是在稀释股权来回购,那回购效果就大打折扣了。但我不这么看,觉得这是个好事。这CB票期限长达7年,而且换购价还溢价了30%到35%,年利率超低,才0.25%到0.75%。你想啊,如果股价涨得不多,少于30%到35%,那公司回购就只要付那么点利息,多划算。再说,如果股价猛涨,超过那30%到35%,别人肯定愿意换股,那现在买还有啥好抱怨的?要是8月份他们真能在港股双重上市,进入港股通,按现在的股价,北方的资金估计得抢疯了。而且软银都清仓了,这股票的做空空间就小了,到时候股价很容易就上去了。现在大家都觉得这是垃圾股,但预期差大得很。你随便搞点几个月后的call,那赔率和胜率都不比买彩票值?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314030797807712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333378213466280,"gmtCreate":1722418801562,"gmtModify":1722418802820,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>日元加息,这对美股可不是啥好消息,利空啊利空!看这架势,一大波拆仓的怕是要汹涌而来了。还是悠着点儿,别跟这风浪硬碰硬,先撤为妙,保住本金要紧,安全第一!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>日元加息,这对美股可不是啥好消息,利空啊利空!看这架势,一大波拆仓的怕是要汹涌而来了。还是悠着点儿,别跟这风浪硬碰硬,先撤为妙,保住本金要紧,安全第一!","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 日元加息,这对美股可不是啥好消息,利空啊利空!看这架势,一大波拆仓的怕是要汹涌而来了。还是悠着点儿,别跟这风浪硬碰硬,先撤为妙,保住本金要紧,安全第一!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333378213466280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","authorIdStr":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"已经提前计价,万一是利空出尽呢","text":"已经提前计价,万一是利空出尽呢","html":"已经提前计价,万一是利空出尽呢"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316872443838696,"gmtCreate":1718369221787,"gmtModify":1718370401288,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>讲讲阿里巴巴的投资情况。投资饿了么,砸了665亿进去,结果是大亏;苏宁易购也投了200亿,也是亏得不行;盒马生鲜,亏了好几百亿;大润发也砸了几百亿,还是巨亏;优酷和土豆加起来花了不少钱,但也是亏;恒大足球,投了12亿,也是血亏;不过,投资饿了么是为了搞新零售生态,扩大饿了么的优势。投苏宁是为了线上线下一起赚钱,家电电商也搞大点。优酷是为了抓数字娱乐市场,电视不行了网络电视火,整合业务生态圈。高德可能是最成功的了,虽然也亏,但它对阿里很重要,就像菜鸟一样。可惜大家都盯着失败的项目。阿里巴巴收购公司总喜欢让人按他们的想法来,这方面还是马化腾聪明,投资就为了赚钱。但阿里巴巴和腾讯模式不一样,一个是拉流量,一个是给流量。对企业态度也不同,阿里喜欢掌控,腾讯只要分红。虽然结果有差距,但各自的价值不能否认。阿里转账方便,腾讯通讯便宜,各有各的好处。这些年,阿里巴巴投的项目确实亏了不少,基本没啥赚的。看了这投资成绩单,你是不是也觉得今年钱更难挣了?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>讲讲阿里巴巴的投资情况。投资饿了么,砸了665亿进去,结果是大亏;苏宁易购也投了200亿,也是亏得不行;盒马生鲜,亏了好几百亿;大润发也砸了几百亿,还是巨亏;优酷和土豆加起来花了不少钱,但也是亏;恒大足球,投了12亿,也是血亏;不过,投资饿了么是为了搞新零售生态,扩大饿了么的优势。投苏宁是为了线上线下一起赚钱,家电电商也搞大点。优酷是为了抓数字娱乐市场,电视不行了网络电视火,整合业务生态圈。高德可能是最成功的了,虽然也亏,但它对阿里很重要,就像菜鸟一样。可惜大家都盯着失败的项目。阿里巴巴收购公司总喜欢让人按他们的想法来,这方面还是马化腾聪明,投资就为了赚钱。但阿里巴巴和腾讯模式不一样,一个是拉流量,一个是给流量。对企业态度也不同,阿里喜欢掌控,腾讯只要分红。虽然结果有差距,但各自的价值不能否认。阿里转账方便,腾讯通讯便宜,各有各的好处。这些年,阿里巴巴投的项目确实亏了不少,基本没啥赚的。看了这投资成绩单,你是不是也觉得今年钱更难挣了?","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 讲讲阿里巴巴的投资情况。投资饿了么,砸了665亿进去,结果是大亏;苏宁易购也投了200亿,也是亏得不行;盒马生鲜,亏了好几百亿;大润发也砸了几百亿,还是巨亏;优酷和土豆加起来花了不少钱,但也是亏;恒大足球,投了12亿,也是血亏;不过,投资饿了么是为了搞新零售生态,扩大饿了么的优势。投苏宁是为了线上线下一起赚钱,家电电商也搞大点。优酷是为了抓数字娱乐市场,电视不行了网络电视火,整合业务生态圈。高德可能是最成功的了,虽然也亏,但它对阿里很重要,就像菜鸟一样。可惜大家都盯着失败的项目。阿里巴巴收购公司总喜欢让人按他们的想法来,这方面还是马化腾聪明,投资就为了赚钱。但阿里巴巴和腾讯模式不一样,一个是拉流量,一个是给流量。对企业态度也不同,阿里喜欢掌控,腾讯只要分红。虽然结果有差距,但各自的价值不能否认。阿里转账方便,腾讯通讯便宜,各有各的好处。这些年,阿里巴巴投的项目确实亏了不少,基本没啥赚的。看了这投资成绩单,你是不是也觉得今年钱更难挣了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316872443838696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":767477556150384,"gmtCreate":1687875028829,"gmtModify":1687875716781,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 人民币汇率拉升,港股对此的反应更直接。进入下半年,尤其是半年报公布季,业绩预期将是结构演绎的主要变量。美股科技股及英伟达见顶迹象明显,AI概念股退潮没有悬念,退出的资金会逐步流向低估值板块,被过分抛售的部分消费和医药将至少迎来估值修复的机会。人民币是反弹还是翻转还不能确认,但迟早是要翻转的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 人民币汇率拉升,港股对此的反应更直接。进入下半年,尤其是半年报公布季,业绩预期将是结构演绎的主要变量。美股科技股及英伟达见顶迹象明显,AI概念股退潮没有悬念,退出的资金会逐步流向低估值板块,被过分抛售的部分消费和医药将至少迎来估值修复的机会。人民币是反弹还是翻转还不能确认,但迟早是要翻转的。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 人民币汇率拉升,港股对此的反应更直接。进入下半年,尤其是半年报公布季,业绩预期将是结构演绎的主要变量。美股科技股及英伟达见顶迹象明显,AI概念股退潮没有悬念,退出的资金会逐步流向低估值板块,被过分抛售的部分消费和医药将至少迎来估值修复的机会。人民币是反弹还是翻转还不能确认,但迟早是要翻转的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/767477556150384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","authorIdStr":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"高通胀高利息环境下利空消费别幻想了","text":"高通胀高利息环境下利空消费别幻想了","html":"高通胀高利息环境下利空消费别幻想了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":656021428,"gmtCreate":1683212490465,"gmtModify":1683212492078,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a> 骗局的成功,主要体现在:持续时间足够长,受骗者多批次迭代,早出局的人能够在晚出局的人的遭遇中得到安慰,无论什么时候出局都要下很大的决心——担心自己出局后会反转。技战术方面,jiojio在乐视网主要靠钻停牌制度的空子,在FF则主要利用美股建立在较高道德底线上的市场化规则。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a> 骗局的成功,主要体现在:持续时间足够长,受骗者多批次迭代,早出局的人能够在晚出局的人的遭遇中得到安慰,无论什么时候出局都要下很大的决心——担心自己出局后会反转。技战术方面,jiojio在乐视网主要靠钻停牌制度的空子,在FF则主要利用美股建立在较高道德底线上的市场化规则。","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 骗局的成功,主要体现在:持续时间足够长,受骗者多批次迭代,早出局的人能够在晚出局的人的遭遇中得到安慰,无论什么时候出局都要下很大的决心——担心自己出局后会反转。技战术方面,jiojio在乐视网主要靠钻停牌制度的空子,在FF则主要利用美股建立在较高道德底线上的市场化规则。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656021428","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":651362097,"gmtCreate":1681480749619,"gmtModify":1681480754039,"author":{"id":"10000000000010330","authorId":"10000000000010330","authorIdStr":"10000000000010330","name":"守的云开见日月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf4dddd6d4678cc04a35cf677e4fd21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">$比亚迪(002594)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 昨天跟一个汽车行业的朋友聊天,梳理了几点思路:一是汽车行业的大趋势就是新能源汽车取代燃油车,这已经是不可逆转的大趋势了,至于取代的速度,很可能会超出市场预期,因为燃油车的供应链和经销商体系支撑不了打持久战。二是新能源车行业中的寡头格局已经非常明确了,就是比亚迪和特斯拉,因为其他车企距离50万辆的年销量都很远,距离100万辆更是遥不可及,在汽车行业这样一个规模效应极为突出的行业里边,没有规模意味着没有竞争力。三是L5及L4自动驾驶可能需要十年甚至更久才能实现,因为十年也不过是业内拍脑袋随口一说,需要多久没人知道,这意味着十年内都不太可能有车企可以凭借自动驾驶实现弯道超车,意味着接下来所有新能源车企依然需要依靠提升产品力、降低成本来扩大市场份额,这将导致新能源车行业的寡头格局进一步固定化。四是比亚迪和特斯拉的竞争问题。在短期内自动驾驶无法实现的背景下,特斯拉在提升产品力、降低成本方面将全面落后于比亚迪,比亚迪的全球份额将进一步提升,特斯拉处于跟随状态。长期看,比亚迪和特斯拉的市值差距将缩小甚至消失。我们猜测,苹果公司之所以不再大手笔投入造车,其实也是看到了自动驾驶遥不可及的未来,这个阶段过多投入很可能成为“先烈”。这同样导致新能源车行业的寡头格局进一步固定化。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">$比亚迪(002594)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 昨天跟一个汽车行业的朋友聊天,梳理了几点思路:一是汽车行业的大趋势就是新能源汽车取代燃油车,这已经是不可逆转的大趋势了,至于取代的速度,很可能会超出市场预期,因为燃油车的供应链和经销商体系支撑不了打持久战。二是新能源车行业中的寡头格局已经非常明确了,就是比亚迪和特斯拉,因为其他车企距离50万辆的年销量都很远,距离100万辆更是遥不可及,在汽车行业这样一个规模效应极为突出的行业里边,没有规模意味着没有竞争力。三是L5及L4自动驾驶可能需要十年甚至更久才能实现,因为十年也不过是业内拍脑袋随口一说,需要多久没人知道,这意味着十年内都不太可能有车企可以凭借自动驾驶实现弯道超车,意味着接下来所有新能源车企依然需要依靠提升产品力、降低成本来扩大市场份额,这将导致新能源车行业的寡头格局进一步固定化。四是比亚迪和特斯拉的竞争问题。在短期内自动驾驶无法实现的背景下,特斯拉在提升产品力、降低成本方面将全面落后于比亚迪,比亚迪的全球份额将进一步提升,特斯拉处于跟随状态。长期看,比亚迪和特斯拉的市值差距将缩小甚至消失。我们猜测,苹果公司之所以不再大手笔投入造车,其实也是看到了自动驾驶遥不可及的未来,这个阶段过多投入很可能成为“先烈”。这同样导致新能源车行业的寡头格局进一步固定化。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ $比亚迪(002594)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ 昨天跟一个汽车行业的朋友聊天,梳理了几点思路:一是汽车行业的大趋势就是新能源汽车取代燃油车,这已经是不可逆转的大趋势了,至于取代的速度,很可能会超出市场预期,因为燃油车的供应链和经销商体系支撑不了打持久战。二是新能源车行业中的寡头格局已经非常明确了,就是比亚迪和特斯拉,因为其他车企距离50万辆的年销量都很远,距离100万辆更是遥不可及,在汽车行业这样一个规模效应极为突出的行业里边,没有规模意味着没有竞争力。三是L5及L4自动驾驶可能需要十年甚至更久才能实现,因为十年也不过是业内拍脑袋随口一说,需要多久没人知道,这意味着十年内都不太可能有车企可以凭借自动驾驶实现弯道超车,意味着接下来所有新能源车企依然需要依靠提升产品力、降低成本来扩大市场份额,这将导致新能源车行业的寡头格局进一步固定化。四是比亚迪和特斯拉的竞争问题。在短期内自动驾驶无法实现的背景下,特斯拉在提升产品力、降低成本方面将全面落后于比亚迪,比亚迪的全球份额将进一步提升,特斯拉处于跟随状态。长期看,比亚迪和特斯拉的市值差距将缩小甚至消失。我们猜测,苹果公司之所以不再大手笔投入造车,其实也是看到了自动驾驶遥不可及的未来,这个阶段过多投入很可能成为“先烈”。这同样导致新能源车行业的寡头格局进一步固定化。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69fed494c7843e8b184615f7061257ab","width":"520","height":"365"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651362097","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4087636963228950","authorId":"4087636963228950","authorIdStr":"4087636963228950","name":"TGlY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72e1b41246e5e2a64e137eecccccd757","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"特斯拉在提升产品力、降低成本方面将全面落后于比亚迪,比亚迪的全球份额将进一步提升,特斯拉处于跟随状态。你这话刚好说反了","text":"特斯拉在提升产品力、降低成本方面将全面落后于比亚迪,比亚迪的全球份额将进一步提升,特斯拉处于跟随状态。你这话刚好说反了","html":"特斯拉在提升产品力、降低成本方面将全面落后于比亚迪,比亚迪的全球份额将进一步提升,特斯拉处于跟随状态。你这话刚好说反了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}