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MasterZheng
2022-01-19
Banks follow prices, not the other way round
抱歉,原内容已删除
MasterZheng
2022-01-18
$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$
3月底40以下
MasterZheng
2021-12-10
How much did Grab pay this guy. My TP is $4.
抱歉,原内容已删除
MasterZheng
2021-12-10
$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$
i forgot to buy my pton puts[Cry]
MasterZheng
2021-12-03
$PTON 20211203 44.0 PUT(PTON)$
Shorting PTON weekly is like free money now
MasterZheng
2021-12-03
$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$
Overvalued stocks starting to crumble
MasterZheng
2021-12-03
It is the next tesla. 1 trllion here we go.
Why Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian(目前)</blockquote>
MasterZheng
2021-12-02
$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$
once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15
MasterZheng
2021-12-02
$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$
Speculative stocks falling
MasterZheng
2021-12-01
$HOOD 20211231 25.0 PUT(HOOD)$
The way to make money with hood is to short. Decreasing revenue trend, unprofitable, and no moat.
MasterZheng
2021-12-01
$RIVN 20211231 100.0 PUT(RIVN)$
why is this a 100B company?
MasterZheng
2021-12-01
$OPEN 20211217 16.0 PUT(OPEN)$
Going the way of zillow
MasterZheng
2021-11-30
$NVDA 20211203 320.0 CALL(NVDA)$
Ride it to 400
MasterZheng
2021-11-25
$F 20211126 20.0 CALL(F)$
The true EV company
MasterZheng
2021-11-25
$AAPL 20211126 160.0 CALL(AAPL)$
AAPL never disappoints
MasterZheng
2021-11-24
$FB 20211126 340.0 CALL(FB)$
always believe in FAANG
MasterZheng
2021-11-24
This might affect price today
抱歉,原内容已删除
MasterZheng
2021-11-24
$OPEN 20211217 16.0 PUT(OPEN)$
insider dumping stocks
MasterZheng
2021-11-23
$GOOG 20211126 3000.0 CALL(GOOG)$
no good
MasterZheng
2021-11-23
$ZM 20211203 245.0 PUT(ZM)$
continue shorting
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follow prices, not the other way round","listText":"Banks follow prices, not the other way round","text":"Banks follow prices, not the other way round","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697771151","repostId":"2204397053","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697269907,"gmtCreate":1642491350334,"gmtModify":1642492487174,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>3月底40以下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>3月底40以下","text":"$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$3月底40以下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697269907","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605303393,"gmtCreate":1639107684235,"gmtModify":1639107756196,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How much did Grab pay this guy. My TP is $4.","listText":"How much did Grab pay this guy. My TP is $4.","text":"How much did Grab pay this guy. My TP is $4.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605303393","repostId":"1101819426","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605300076,"gmtCreate":1639107319838,"gmtModify":1639107595991,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>i forgot to buy my pton puts[Cry] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>i forgot to buy my pton puts[Cry] ","text":"$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$i forgot to buy my pton puts[Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605300076","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601405494,"gmtCreate":1638544983279,"gmtModify":1638544983400,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$PTON 20211203 44.0 PUT(PTON)$</a>Shorting PTON weekly is like free money now","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$PTON 20211203 44.0 PUT(PTON)$</a>Shorting PTON weekly is like free money now","text":"$PTON 20211203 44.0 PUT(PTON)$Shorting PTON weekly is like free money now","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c14894903bd50318e0fb4ec0eaea4ccc","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601405494","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4164,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601542061,"gmtCreate":1638544108881,"gmtModify":1638544153840,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$</a>Overvalued stocks starting to crumble","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$</a>Overvalued stocks starting to crumble","text":"$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$Overvalued stocks starting to crumble","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36e3064f3d0eaae3b78e48b5dcd1e9f5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601542061","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601696434,"gmtCreate":1638519107175,"gmtModify":1638519107253,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It is the next tesla. 1 trllion here we go. ","listText":"It is the next tesla. 1 trllion here we go. ","text":"It is the next tesla. 1 trllion here we go.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601696434","repostId":"1100339971","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100339971","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638516924,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100339971?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 15:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian(目前)</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100339971","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Investors are loving this electric vehicle start-up. But the numbers (or lack thereof) don't add up.","content":"<p>One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is <b>Rivian</b>. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of <b>Tesla</b>, the market leader in electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.</p><p><blockquote>目前投资界最热门的公司之一是<b>Rivian</b>这家电动汽车初创公司刚刚上市,市值超过 1000 亿美元,考虑到它从未产生任何销售额,这令人震惊。随着<b>特斯拉</b>电动汽车的市场领导者,最近市值突破1万亿美元,围绕这个新行业的兴奋已经达到了白热化的程度。</blockquote></p><p> While Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Rivian 的招股说明书令人兴奋,而且该公司正在寻求巨大的市场机会,但人们必须为所有这些潜力付出的代价实在是太高了。以下是投资者现在需要远离Rivian股票的几个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af764bd447f10cf89d9c92eb80ad9d14\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Rivian.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源:Rivian。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The company is pre-revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司预收</b></blockquote></p><p> At a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.</p><p><blockquote>从最基本的层面来看,Rivian并不是一家适合以1060亿美元市值投资的公司,因为它从未产生过任何收入,更不用说利润或自由现金流了。根据 S-1(SEC 要求公司在进行首次公开募股 (IPO) 之前提交的文件),Rivian在第三季度生产了 12 辆汽车,全部出售给员工。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底,预计将生产1,200辆R1T(电动卡车),到2023年底,预计将生产55,400辆汽车,这将清理目前的积压订单。如果Rivian以 67,500 美元的平均价格(目前其网站上 R1T 的标准成本)销售这些汽车,那么从现在到 2023 年底,它将产生约 37 亿美元的收入。今年前六个月的自由现金流为负 17 亿美元,假设的 37 亿美元收入甚至不足以覆盖 Rivian 目前的费用基础(随着其开始大规模生产,费用基础可能会增长)。Rivian可能需要三到五年的时间,如果不是更长的话,才能开始为股东产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manufacturing cars is a tough business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>制造汽车是一项艰难的业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian 目前的装机量为 65,000 辆 R1T 和 85,000 辆 RCV(其商用货车),使其每年能够生产 150,000 辆汽车。假设所有这些车辆的平均售价为 67,500 美元,一旦达到规模,Rivian的年收入将超过 100 亿美元。人们可能会认为,在这种收入和制造水平下,Rivian将会盈利。但这是被误导的想法。</blockquote></p><p> If we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看它最接近的竞争对手、纯电动汽车制造商特斯拉,它在 2018 年交付了 245,000 辆汽车,才接近自由现金流收支平衡。制造汽车成本高昂,Rivian的投资者不应期望利润率会很高,即使Rivian十年后达到任何形式的成熟度。Rivian需要开始快速增加汽车交付量,才能接近实现 1060 亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Every automaker is all-in on electric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每个汽车制造商都全力以赴地使用电动汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> One reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉能够长期保持增长的一个原因是,没有其他公司认真对待电动汽车。这不是我们目前所处的市场环境。大型汽车制造商以及特斯拉和其他纯电动汽车初创公司都在投资数百亿美元来参与未来十年的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford</b> has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S. <b>Toyota</b> has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特</b>已承诺投资 114 亿美元投资美国电池和电动汽车制造。<b>丰田</b>仅电池开发和生产就已投入 135 亿美元。而这只是冰山一角。未来五年,电动汽车的竞争将非常激烈。如果Rivian想在电动汽车市场获得巨大的市场份额,从停滞不前开始,就有一座艰难的山要爬。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't forget about the company</b></p><p><blockquote><b>别忘了公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to <b>Amazon</b>, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.</p><p><blockquote>即使 Rivian 的股票下跌了 95%,也可能被高估,但如果您看好电动汽车行业,该公司仍然可以列入您的观察名单。IPO 后,其资产负债表上有 170 亿美元现金,10 万辆电动送货车的车队订单将<b>亚马逊</b>以及一款外观时尚的卡车,Rivian有机会在未来五年内快速增长。但对于投资者来说,以这个估值购买股票以获得公司盈利前出现的机会并不是一个明智的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian(目前)</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Investors Need to Stay Far Away From Rivian (for Now)<blockquote>为什么投资者需要远离Rivian(目前)</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-03 15:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is <b>Rivian</b>. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of <b>Tesla</b>, the market leader in electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.</p><p><blockquote>目前投资界最热门的公司之一是<b>Rivian</b>这家电动汽车初创公司刚刚上市,市值超过 1000 亿美元,考虑到它从未产生任何销售额,这令人震惊。随着<b>特斯拉</b>电动汽车的市场领导者,最近市值突破1万亿美元,围绕这个新行业的兴奋已经达到了白热化的程度。</blockquote></p><p> While Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Rivian 的招股说明书令人兴奋,而且该公司正在寻求巨大的市场机会,但人们必须为所有这些潜力付出的代价实在是太高了。以下是投资者现在需要远离Rivian股票的几个原因。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af764bd447f10cf89d9c92eb80ad9d14\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Rivian.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源:Rivian。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The company is pre-revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司预收</b></blockquote></p><p> At a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.</p><p><blockquote>从最基本的层面来看,Rivian并不是一家适合以1060亿美元市值投资的公司,因为它从未产生过任何收入,更不用说利润或自由现金流了。根据 S-1(SEC 要求公司在进行首次公开募股 (IPO) 之前提交的文件),Rivian在第三季度生产了 12 辆汽车,全部出售给员工。</blockquote></p><p> By the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>到2021年底,预计将生产1,200辆R1T(电动卡车),到2023年底,预计将生产55,400辆汽车,这将清理目前的积压订单。如果Rivian以 67,500 美元的平均价格(目前其网站上 R1T 的标准成本)销售这些汽车,那么从现在到 2023 年底,它将产生约 37 亿美元的收入。今年前六个月的自由现金流为负 17 亿美元,假设的 37 亿美元收入甚至不足以覆盖 Rivian 目前的费用基础(随着其开始大规模生产,费用基础可能会增长)。Rivian可能需要三到五年的时间,如果不是更长的话,才能开始为股东产生正的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manufacturing cars is a tough business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>制造汽车是一项艰难的业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian 目前的装机量为 65,000 辆 R1T 和 85,000 辆 RCV(其商用货车),使其每年能够生产 150,000 辆汽车。假设所有这些车辆的平均售价为 67,500 美元,一旦达到规模,Rivian的年收入将超过 100 亿美元。人们可能会认为,在这种收入和制造水平下,Rivian将会盈利。但这是被误导的想法。</blockquote></p><p> If we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看它最接近的竞争对手、纯电动汽车制造商特斯拉,它在 2018 年交付了 245,000 辆汽车,才接近自由现金流收支平衡。制造汽车成本高昂,Rivian的投资者不应期望利润率会很高,即使Rivian十年后达到任何形式的成熟度。Rivian需要开始快速增加汽车交付量,才能接近实现 1060 亿美元的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Every automaker is all-in on electric</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每个汽车制造商都全力以赴地使用电动汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> One reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉能够长期保持增长的一个原因是,没有其他公司认真对待电动汽车。这不是我们目前所处的市场环境。大型汽车制造商以及特斯拉和其他纯电动汽车初创公司都在投资数百亿美元来参与未来十年的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ford</b> has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S. <b>Toyota</b> has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.</p><p><blockquote><b>福特</b>已承诺投资 114 亿美元投资美国电池和电动汽车制造。<b>丰田</b>仅电池开发和生产就已投入 135 亿美元。而这只是冰山一角。未来五年,电动汽车的竞争将非常激烈。如果Rivian想在电动汽车市场获得巨大的市场份额,从停滞不前开始,就有一座艰难的山要爬。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Don't forget about the company</b></p><p><blockquote><b>别忘了公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to <b>Amazon</b>, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.</p><p><blockquote>即使 Rivian 的股票下跌了 95%,也可能被高估,但如果您看好电动汽车行业,该公司仍然可以列入您的观察名单。IPO 后,其资产负债表上有 170 亿美元现金,10 万辆电动送货车的车队订单将<b>亚马逊</b>以及一款外观时尚的卡车,Rivian有机会在未来五年内快速增长。但对于投资者来说,以这个估值购买股票以获得公司盈利前出现的机会并不是一个明智的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/02/why-investors-need-to-stay-far-away-from-rivian/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/02/why-investors-need-to-stay-far-away-from-rivian/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100339971","content_text":"One of the hottest companies in the investing universe right now is Rivian. The electric vehicle start-up just went public at a market cap north of $100 billion, which is astounding considering the fact it has never generated any sales. With the rise of Tesla, the market leader in electric vehicles, to a market cap north of $1 trillion recently, the excitement around this new industry has reached a fever pitch.\nWhile Rivian's prospectus is exciting, and the company is going after a huge market opportunity, the price one must pay for all this potential is simply too much to ask. Here are a few reasons why investors need to stay far away from Rivian stock right now.\nImage source: Rivian.\nThe company is pre-revenue\nAt a most basic level, Rivian is not a suitable company to invest in at a market cap of $106 billion because it has never generated any revenue, let alone profits or free cash flow. According to its S-1, which is the SEC filing companies are required to put out before going through an initial public offering (IPO), Rivian produced 12 vehicles in the third quarter, all of which were sold to employees.\nBy the end of 2021, it expects to produce 1,200 R1Ts (an electric truck), and by the end of 2023, it expects to produce 55,400 total vehicles, which would clear out its current backlog of orders. If Rivian sells these vehicles at an average price of $67,500, the standard cost on its website for the R1T right now, it will generate around $3.7 billion in revenue from now until the end of 2023. With $1.7 billion in negative free cash flow in the first six months of this year, this hypothetical $3.7 billion in revenue would not even come close to covering Rivian's current expense base (which will likely grow as it starts manufacturing at scale). It will likely take three to five years, if not longer, for Rivian to start generating positive free cash flow for shareholders.\nManufacturing cars is a tough business\nRivian's current installed base is for 65,000 R1Ts and 85,000 RCVs (its commercial van), giving it the capacity to generate 150,000 cars a year. Assuming a ballpark average selling price of $67,500 for all these vehicles, that would be over $10 billion in annual revenue for Rivian once it reaches scale. One might assume at this revenue and manufacturing level Rivian would be profitable. But that is misguided thinking.\nIf we look at Tesla, its closest competitor that is a pure-play electric vehicle manufacturer, it only got close to free cash flow breakeven in 2018 when it delivered 245,000 vehicles. Manufacturing cars is expensive, and investors in Rivian shouldn't expect profit margins to be very high, even once Rivian reaches any sort of maturity a decade from now. Rivian needs to start ramping up its vehicle deliveries, and fast, in order to get anywhere close to fulfilling a market cap of $106 billion.\nEvery automaker is all-in on electric\nOne reason Tesla was able to grow unabated for so long is that no other company was taking electric vehicles seriously. This is not the market environment we are currently in. The big car manufacturers along with Tesla and other pure-play electric vehicle start-ups are all investing tens of billions to compete over the next decade.\nFord has committed $11.4 billion to invest in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing in the U.S. Toyota has committed $13.5 billion to battery development and production alone. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the next five years, competition for electric vehicles will be fierce. Starting at a standstill, Rivian has a tough hill to climb if it wants to gain significant market share in the electric vehicle market.\nDon't forget about the company\nRivian's stock would likely be overvalued even if it got a 95% haircut, but the company can still go on your watch list if you are bullish on the electric vehicle industry. With $17 billion in cash on its balance sheet after the IPO, a 100,000 fleet order for electric delivery vans going to Amazon, and a sleek-looking truck, Rivian has a chance to grow quickly over the next five years. But paying for the stock at this valuation for the chance that happens when the company is pre-revenue is not a smart bet for investors to make.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603272725,"gmtCreate":1638419841044,"gmtModify":1638419841290,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603272725","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603695861,"gmtCreate":1638403799037,"gmtModify":1638403799207,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$</a>Speculative stocks falling","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$</a>Speculative stocks falling","text":"$AFRM 20211210 120.0 PUT(AFRM)$Speculative stocks falling","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc52abfa1abf6e8b1def1bc50939db74","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603695861","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603115403,"gmtCreate":1638373134064,"gmtModify":1638373134273,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$HOOD 20211231 25.0 PUT(HOOD)$</a>The way to make money with hood is to short. Decreasing revenue trend, unprofitable, and no moat.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$HOOD 20211231 25.0 PUT(HOOD)$</a>The way to make money with hood is to short. Decreasing revenue trend, unprofitable, and no moat.","text":"$HOOD 20211231 25.0 PUT(HOOD)$The way to make money with hood is to short. 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today","text":"This might affect price today","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874167656","repostId":"2185353788","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875786873,"gmtCreate":1637688684875,"gmtModify":1637688684875,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$OPEN 20211217 16.0 PUT(OPEN)$</a>insider dumping stocks","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$OPEN 20211217 16.0 PUT(OPEN)$</a>insider dumping stocks","text":"$OPEN 20211217 16.0 PUT(OPEN)$insider dumping 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Inc.(WISH)$过$12了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187225103","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603272725,"gmtCreate":1638419841044,"gmtModify":1638419841290,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15","text":"$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$once it gets bank charter it should be valued similar to bank stocks, PE of 10-15","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603272725","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609597422,"gmtCreate":1638293503111,"gmtModify":1638293503111,"author":{"id":"3573388909005978","authorId":"3573388909005978","name":"MasterZheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573388909005978","idStr":"3573388909005978"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$RIVN 20211231 100.0 PUT(RIVN)$</a>why is this a 100B company?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$RIVN 20211231 100.0 PUT(RIVN)$</a>why is this a 100B 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