负油价重现的观点要被打脸了么？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

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负油价重现的观点要被打脸了么？

出没在交易圈的情报员
2020-05-15

从wind上跑出的全球原油现货交易价格上看，最新的数据截止到4月底，世界各大港**易价格的加权平均数是21美元多点，考虑到全球疫情确诊人数的峰值已经过去，加上5月起各主要产油国的减产协议可以落实，这么看，似乎最坏的预期已经过去，油市已经恢复正常，尽管目前仍然有1亿多桶的原油等待交割。

图中黄线为现货原油价格，根据公开数据，如果美国可以减产400万桶一天，沙特可以减产500万桶一天，整个OPEC可以减产1000万桶一天，那么5月的原油产量可能会是图中标注的那样，供应量将会遭遇腰斩。

但并没有消息说，现在的原油库存被更多的扩容空间缓解，油市似乎在有意淡化交割时遇到的库存危机，虽然CFTC报告说6月的负油价可能会再现，但经历过暴跌的油市只考虑了减产带来的利好，原油期货价格也已经回归正常。

我之前一直在担心6月原油交割时出现负油价的情况，如果盲目的做多6月期货，可能风险和收益并不对等，如果之前的最坏情况再次发生，那么成本则是无限大的，而原油期货价格的涨幅却是有限的，即便抄底USO，收益也并不理想，因为USO早已调整了期货跟踪策略，6月合约只留下来了三成仓位。

感觉现在的油市很鸡肋，找不到更好的参与方式，期货上，除了卖近买远之外，还有更好的策略么？谁分享一下？

$美国原油ETF(USO)$ $布油现金主连(BZmain)$ $WTI原油主连(CLmain)$

# 分享我的交易策略

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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大大大空头
·2020-05-18
其实一开始抄汽油就比较安全
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虎伴人生
·2020-05-16
打
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阿寿鲜生
·2020-05-16
观望观望
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奋斗是我的人生态度
·2020-05-16
👍
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