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IvySim
2021-10-22
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
火箭上升,抓紧了
IvySim
2021-09-29
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
股市大回调,十月第二星期老虎就发威了[开心]
IvySim
2021-05-06
$苹果(AAPL)$
why like that
IvySim
2021-07-28
[强]
纳斯达克梦向三万点,或在这一个十年?
IvySim
2021-05-20
$AMD(AMD)$
跳来跳去还是在原地
IvySim
2021-04-21
$沃尔玛(WMT)$
加油
IvySim
2021-04-20
$AMD(AMD)$
成交量高,换手率高,就是不上,直得长期持有,慢慢爬
IvySim
2021-06-04
[微笑]
美联储“三把手”:现在不是美联储调整购债规模的好时机
IvySim
2021-05-26
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
再过几天必能回本
IvySim
2021-04-22
$AMD(AMD)$
强一点了
IvySim
2021-08-03
[强]
@美股研究社:美银证券:将英伟达(NVDA.O)目标价从225美元上调至250美元。
$英伟达(NVDA)$
IvySim
2021-05-25
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
不能再横着走了,走远就撑不住了
IvySim
2021-05-18
Up up,walmart
IvySim
2021-05-05
Walmart 小跌
IvySim
2021-04-26
$AMD(AMD)$
🛸🛸🛸
IvySim
2021-04-19
$AMD(AMD)$
加油
IvySim
2021-07-05
Cute
抱歉,原内容已删除
IvySim
2021-06-18
$AMD(AMD)$
good
IvySim
2021-06-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
good up up
IvySim
2021-06-08
$蔚来(NIO)$
终于等到了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604116333","repostId":"604985118","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":604985118,"gmtCreate":1639308360000,"gmtModify":1639313218945,"author":{"id":"3524105736180983","authorId":"3524105736180983","name":"财经女记者部落","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71a43f183a7a331f932d0accc3182cd3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105736180983","authorIdStr":"3524105736180983"},"themes":[],"title":"奈雪的茶、麦当劳和天猫们扎堆闯进“元宇宙”","htmlText":"图片来源:图虫创意 记者 |马越 编辑 |牙韩翔 当奈雪的茶这样的食品饮料品牌,也开始宣称向“元宇宙进军”的时候,你或许会意识到的一个问题是,元宇宙的火,再一次烧得旺盛出圈。 奈雪在其品牌成立6周年之际,官宣了来自元宇宙的大使“NAYUKI”,同时推出了实物版售价699的限量潮玩。值得注意的是,奈雪还发售了“NFT盲盒”——即含隐藏款在内共7款不同造型、没有实物的NAYUKI潮玩。 奈雪元宇宙的大使“NAYUKI” 奈雪元宇宙NFT艺术品 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>","text":"美银证券:将英伟达(NVDA.O)目标价从225美元上调至250美元。$英伟达(NVDA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/090b05821f90382d8b773ab20834e146","width":"500","height":"375"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807958083","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":808640766,"gmtCreate":1627577025055,"gmtModify":1633758108328,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>别这样弯着,会往下掉的,快振作起来","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>别这样弯着,会往下掉的,快振作起来","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$别这样弯着,会往下掉的,快振作起来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808640766","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801088538,"gmtCreate":1627473392424,"gmtModify":1633764690425,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] 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","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173949845","repostId":"1151231853","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151231853","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"市场策略研究、热点问题观察、分享最新观点:美国与海外市场、H股、及中概股市场","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Kevin策略研究","id":"1090746012","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90"},"pubTimestamp":1626604009,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151231853?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-18 18:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金海外:美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151231853","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过,抛开短期一些情绪变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角","content":"<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过,抛开短期一些情绪变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。<b>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观。</b></p>\n<p>整体情况:二季度增长进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。</p>\n<p>参考Factset一致预期,<b>标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。</b>板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先</b>,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。</p>\n<p>关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。</b>因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲</p>\n<p>整体看,二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修,不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调vs.下调分析师数)二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。<b>往前看,虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。</b></p>\n<p><b>本周焦点:即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何?</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。</p>\n<p>我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到,市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格(例如二手车同比大涨45%,如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平)让市场认为是无法持续的,但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断(《美联储依然不急于退出》),这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。</p>\n<p><i>扣除掉二手车价格后,6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过,抛开短期一些情绪上的变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心,<b>更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来,美股估值就基本持平,而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量</b>。因此,<b>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观</b>。</p>\n<p>实际上,一季度业绩大超预期(同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%),推动业绩持续上修(《当前美股盈利的八个特征》),当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%,2021年为11%,<b>在这样一个强劲增长下,假设其他条件不变,如果切换到2022年盈利,那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平,进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。</b></p>\n<p><i>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>下半年如果切换到2022年盈利(浅蓝色),那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平(深蓝色)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%,市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>一、整体情况:二季度进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先</b></p>\n<p>7月中旬开始,美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望:从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析,我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复,<b>美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点</b>。具体来看,参考Factset一致预期,<b>标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。</b></p>\n<p><i>目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%,纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>除净利润外,标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升,纳斯达克略有下滑,但仍处高位</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长</b>;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。<b>从改善幅度来看,相比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显</b>,而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。</p>\n<p><i>耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显,但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>对比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大,零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>二季度以来,能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大,银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</b></p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解</b>。因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看,美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平,尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%,距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。</p>\n<p>分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),<b>当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,</b>特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现,从截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面,那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快,例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业;相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。</p>\n<p><i>美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i> 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>三、前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲</b></p>\n<p>整体来看,二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修,目前,市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%,2022年EPS同比增长10.9%;纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%,2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调 vs.下调分析师数)<b>二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。</b></p>\n<p>往前看,<b>虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</b>。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%,这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。</p>\n<p><i>二季度以来,盈利调整情绪快速上修,但5月末逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>市场动态:6月通胀超预期上行,零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲;美债利率再创新低多头增加,美元空头大降</b></p>\n<p><b>►资产表现:债>股>大宗;利率再创新低,周期跑输</b></p>\n<p>过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。<b>在经历了超预期的6月通胀</b>(《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》)、<b>依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词</b>(《美联储依然不急于退出》)、<b>超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后,美股市场整体小幅收跌,金融周期跑输</b>,同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%,实际利率回落,但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,公用事业、家庭用品领涨;能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps,其中实际利率回落11bps,通胀预期上升4bps</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输,疫情受损少板块相对跑赢</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►情绪仓位:Put/call比例抬升,美元空头大幅减少</b></p>\n<p>过去一周,美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面,美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升;伴随美债利率的进一步回落,10年美债多头仓位大幅增加,2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。</p>\n<p><i>CBOE美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,欧美股市RSI点位均回落,日本及新兴抬升;布油回落</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美元指数多头仓位继续增加,空头仓位大幅减少,净多头大幅抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>►资金流向:货基转为流出,股市加速流入。</b></p>\n<p>过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币基金大幅流出;分市场看,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币市场基金转为大幅流出</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►基本面与政策:6月通胀再超预期,零售强势增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>6月美国通胀超预期上行,二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。</b>6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%,均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中,二手车价格环比跳升10.5%,贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一,缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外,机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显,例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。</p>\n<p><b>6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%</b>,高于预期的-0.3%和前值(-1.7%)。分项看,<b>汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累</b>,但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消(7月80.8,低于前值85.5并不及预期(86.5)。与此同时,上周首申人数36.0万人,低于前值(38.6万人)但不及预期的35.0万人。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周经济数据总结</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月CPI再超预期,同比5.4%环比0.9%,二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%,高于预期的-0.3%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>分项看,汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位,超8000亿美元</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i> 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元,较上周抬升明显</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►市场估值:估值略有回落。</b></p>\n<p>伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落,当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长(6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6)和流动性(10年美债利率1.36%)能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落,但处于历史相对高位。</p>\n<p><i>当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍,超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金海外:美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金海外:美股二季度盈利有望进一步加速增长\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1090746012\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3f16355434883aa8d30b4dc5a7d90);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Kevin策略研究 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-18 18:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过,抛开短期一些情绪变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。<b>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观。</b></p>\n<p>整体情况:二季度增长进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。</p>\n<p>参考Factset一致预期,<b>标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。</b>板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先</b>,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。</p>\n<p>关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。</b>因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲</p>\n<p>整体看,二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修,不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调vs.下调分析师数)二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。<b>往前看,虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。</b></p>\n<p><b>本周焦点:即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何?</b></p>\n<p>近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。</p>\n<p>我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到,市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格(例如二手车同比大涨45%,如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平)让市场认为是无法持续的,但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断(《美联储依然不急于退出》),这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。</p>\n<p><i>扣除掉二手车价格后,6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd0162f2599c429c113f4fb6bba6cd1c\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>不过,抛开短期一些情绪上的变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心,<b>更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来,美股估值就基本持平,而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量</b>。因此,<b>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观</b>。</p>\n<p>实际上,一季度业绩大超预期(同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%),推动业绩持续上修(《当前美股盈利的八个特征》),当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%,2021年为11%,<b>在这样一个强劲增长下,假设其他条件不变,如果切换到2022年盈利,那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平,进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。</b></p>\n<p><i>从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e391be2c84b5cb240787e36fd019c74b\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7e6447d1346d3f6a1b14792ae1fb01\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>下半年如果切换到2022年盈利(浅蓝色),那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平(深蓝色)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d6495bd71eced449a9a243bfec33924\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%,市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a71ebb5c81492e5a9ac8e8ed4d312b7d\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>一、整体情况:二季度进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先</b></p>\n<p>7月中旬开始,美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望:从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析,我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复,<b>美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点</b>。具体来看,参考Factset一致预期,<b>标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。</b></p>\n<p><i>目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%,纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9dac04e5c6cd831a34297db41de0ce8\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>除净利润外,标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升,纳斯达克略有下滑,但仍处高位</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9707e327be510f64aa0b22d4dfc432\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"524\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,<b>耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长</b>;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。<b>从改善幅度来看,相比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显</b>,而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。</p>\n<p><i>耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显,但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7723e780a6d8d49765b7a8eb71c47142\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d827e228fc131c8609e7eb4578ae59\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>对比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大,零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d7a68d6d77d103d297aa57e509aba\" tg-width=\"812\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>二季度以来,能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大,银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c733067357fdc302b884ee0852845ee0\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支</b></p>\n<p><b>当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解</b>。因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看,美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平,尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%,距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。</p>\n<p>分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),<b>当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,</b>特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。</p>\n<p>这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现,从截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面,那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快,例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业;相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。</p>\n<p><i>美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53b499f6322772f960a8b4380161f69e\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i> 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac7dee32811c05608d4996ddc1b6f1e\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb6dc355059b752c78fe7e9fd3e6a53\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c2558b7d03946063043eb4df5726ecf\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cf47a0b5398c71e46bf9d5517126c3a\" tg-width=\"895\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>三、前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲</b></p>\n<p>整体来看,二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修,目前,市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%,2022年EPS同比增长10.9%;纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%,2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调 vs.下调分析师数)<b>二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。</b></p>\n<p>往前看,<b>虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</b>。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%,这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。</p>\n<p><i>二季度以来,盈利调整情绪快速上修,但5月末逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5ea5dcaf8bf692d3977f0131cf0d53c\" tg-width=\"789\" tg-height=\"485\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b251d0a58c9e8ac467ae4563f1fce6\" tg-width=\"775\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>市场动态:6月通胀超预期上行,零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲;美债利率再创新低多头增加,美元空头大降</b></p>\n<p><b>►资产表现:债>股>大宗;利率再创新低,周期跑输</b></p>\n<p>过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。<b>在经历了超预期的6月通胀</b>(《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》)、<b>依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词</b>(《美联储依然不急于退出》)、<b>超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后,美股市场整体小幅收跌,金融周期跑输</b>,同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%,实际利率回落,但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4f9bb5609b5e9bb70a8f407e0033b21\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,公用事业、家庭用品领涨;能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d4d293cd3bdb071f6792ebbed29beee\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps,其中实际利率回落11bps,通胀预期上升4bps</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1264e9221413c868ea309fd8f4baee9\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输,疫情受损少板块相对跑赢</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7bbaaa22ee6b5682383d99404572c2\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►情绪仓位:Put/call比例抬升,美元空头大幅减少</b></p>\n<p>过去一周,美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面,美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升;伴随美债利率的进一步回落,10年美债多头仓位大幅增加,2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。</p>\n<p><i>CBOE美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6d8a29e7882613661c1e3d53d7c1533\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,欧美股市RSI点位均回落,日本及新兴抬升;布油回落</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e24fb1dbe1900f171084acec1c0902\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美元指数多头仓位继续增加,空头仓位大幅减少,净多头大幅抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125305e1d2b71dd5479e48f796d27371\" tg-width=\"992\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>►资金流向:货基转为流出,股市加速流入。</b></p>\n<p>过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币基金大幅流出;分市场看,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币市场基金转为大幅流出</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f5e742c9f21463f645f06f585f6dfe\" tg-width=\"1045\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd37fbb2a8c413cb479bf41d00fe260d\" tg-width=\"880\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►基本面与政策:6月通胀再超预期,零售强势增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>6月美国通胀超预期上行,二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。</b>6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%,均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中,二手车价格环比跳升10.5%,贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一,缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外,机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显,例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。</p>\n<p><b>6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%</b>,高于预期的-0.3%和前值(-1.7%)。分项看,<b>汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累</b>,但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消(7月80.8,低于前值85.5并不及预期(86.5)。与此同时,上周首申人数36.0万人,低于前值(38.6万人)但不及预期的35.0万人。</p>\n<p><i>过去一周经济数据总结</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51c8becaabb300c614aae82376b1811e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"482\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月CPI再超预期,同比5.4%环比0.9%,二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be95482ad914743cc46ae03dfd61c7c7\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%,高于预期的-0.3%</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e7d767ac03bf61753c4ea2a31c98b4\" tg-width=\"922\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>分项看,汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26688afd6f0e8018af6ab4646f83a73\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"517\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>过去一周,美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位,超8000亿美元</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc2a4bf65f4512b115ac6ba45da7533b\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i> 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元,较上周抬升明显</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a6980f71674854b48b80fd7945e5b2\" tg-width=\"728\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>►市场估值:估值略有回落。</b></p>\n<p>伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落,当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长(6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6)和流动性(10年美债利率1.36%)能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落,但处于历史相对高位。</p>\n<p><i>当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍,超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/375db13e71641a7072dc3fad087b017d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593bae75a6b6c4dbec11a5708e95d06b\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151231853","content_text":"摘要\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对高通胀高估值下的美股能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。不过,抛开短期一些情绪变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心。从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n整体情况:二季度增长进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先。\n参考Factset一致预期,标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。\n关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体看,二季度以来市场对美股盈利一致预期快速上修,不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调vs.下调分析师数)二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。往前看,虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。\n本周焦点:即将开始的美股二季度业绩期如何?\n近期随着美国通胀再度超预期上行,市场对于高通胀高估值下的美股市场能否延续上行趋势、以及美联储政策是否会提前收紧的担忧再度升温。\n我们在近期的点评《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》中提到,市场之所以表现的相对淡定主要是由于恰恰是如此高的价格(例如二手车同比大涨45%,如果扣掉二手车的话6月CPI同比将基本持平)让市场认为是无法持续的,但更重要的是鲍威尔在听证会上依然维持通胀是暂时性且不急于政策退出的判断(《美联储依然不急于退出》),这避免了让市场在面对超预期的通胀风险下陷入剧烈波动。\n扣除掉二手车价格后,6月通胀同比较5月仅基本持平\n\n不过,抛开短期一些情绪上的变化,基本面状况才是判断市场中期趋势的核心,更何况去年三季度美债利率开始逐步上行以来,美股估值就基本持平,而盈利是推动市场表现的核心变量。因此,从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观。\n实际上,一季度业绩大超预期(同比52% vs. 预期的21%和2020年四季度4%),推动业绩持续上修(《当前美股盈利的八个特征》),当前市场一致预期预计2021年盈利增速有望达到38%,2021年为11%,在这样一个强劲增长下,假设其他条件不变,如果切换到2022年盈利,那么估值将重新回到疫情前水平,进而使得看似很高的估值并没有那么贵。\n从市场角度,即便面临诸多不确定性可能带来的波动,但只要盈利趋势不彻底逆转,我们就不会对市场转为悲观\n\n美股市场股市从去年三季度以来基本持平\n\n下半年如果切换到2022年盈利(浅蓝色),那么估值将回落至2019年疫情前水平(深蓝色)\n\n标普500指数2021年EPS一致预期同比增长38.4%,市场一致预期2022年同比增长10.9%\n\n一、整体情况:二季度进一步加速;耐用品、银行、原材料、资本品增速领先\n7月中旬开始,美股市场将逐步进入持续一个月的2Q21业绩期。如我们在《2H21海外市场展望:从增长外溢到流动性反噬》中分析,我们预计得益于去年低基数以及二季度以来疫情接种下服务性消费的持续修复,美股二季度盈利增速将是年内高点。具体来看,参考Factset一致预期,标普500盈利(可比口径)有望实现66%的同比增长(vs. 一季度52%),纳斯达克综指同比89%(vs. 一季度94%)。\n目前市场共识预计标普500二季度EPS同比65.5%,纳斯达克综指EPS预计二季度同比88.9%\n\n除净利润外,标普500二季度EBIT预计较一季度继续抬升,纳斯达克略有下滑,但仍处高位\n\n板块层面,结合去年二季度的基数以及今年二季度的修复情况,当前Factset汇总的预期显示,耐用消费品、银行、原材料、资本品等板块的盈利增速领先,有望实现超过100%的盈利增长;相反,家庭用品、医疗保健设备以及公用事业预计二季度盈利增速为负。从改善幅度来看,相比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行及原材料等价值板块或将改善明显,而零售、医疗保健设备、科技硬件、媒体娱乐等成长板块盈利增速或有所回落。\n耐用消费品、银行二季度EPS同比增速改善明显,但家庭用品、医疗保健与设备预计落后\n\n这一强弱关系与一季度的情形大体一致\n\n对比一季度,耐用消费品、资本品、银行、原材料等改善幅度最大,零售、多元金融、医疗保健设备等下滑\n\n二季度以来,能源板块2021e EPS预期调整幅度最大,银行、原材料等上调幅度同样显著\n\n二、关注焦点:供应瓶颈与产能利用率、资本开支\n当前美股企业所面临的问题已经不在于盈利和需求的修复,更多在于供给的释放和供需瓶颈的缓解。因此,二季度业绩期,我们需要重点关注企业产能、供应链修复、以及库存的情况,特别是管理层对于相关问题的讨论。从截至6月的月度高频数据来看,美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平,尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%,距离年初和疫情前的75%都仍有距离。\n分行业来看,相比上一轮投资周期的高点(2018年7月),当前汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率都明显偏低,特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高。\n这一点从企业的资本开支情况也可以得到体现,从截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面,那些需求旺盛、产能已经打满且有能力的行业资本开支修复更快,例如电商、半导体设备、生物制药等行业;相反其他行业如能源、交运、商业服务等依然落后。\n美国整体产能利用率目前为75.5%,还没有完全修复至1月75.8%的水平\n\n 尤其是受供应瓶颈影响较大的耐用消费品,目前产能利用率仅为74%\n\n汽车与零部件、航空交运、纸制品、石油煤炭、塑料与橡胶、金属加工等板块的产能利用率明显偏低\n\n特别是汽车,当前产能利用率仅为64%,6月份反而还进一步回落,这也解释了二手车价格在6月继续大幅攀升进而推动通胀走高\n\n截止一季度的情况看,美国企业的资本开支也呈现非常分化的K型修复局面\n\n三、前景展望:预期继续上修,但调整情绪边际回落;三季度环比仍有后劲\n整体来看,二季度以来市场对于美股盈利的一致预期快速上修,目前,市场预计标普5002021年EPS同比增长38.4%,2022年EPS同比增长10.9%;纳斯达克2021年EPS同比增长49.2%,2022年EPS同比上升19.0%。不过,更为敏感的盈利调整情绪(上调 vs.下调分析师数)二季度开始快速上修,但5月末开始逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去,上修动能减缓。\n往前看,虽然二季度得益于低基数将是同比高点,但我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放。目前市场预期预计三季度盈利增速24%,这也是我们对于三季度美国增长和市场依然维持积极的主要原因之一。\n二季度以来,盈利调整情绪快速上修,但5月末逐步企稳,预示着盈利上修最快阶段或已过去\n\n我们预计三季度环比仍有后劲,主要得益于服务性消费在三季度的进一步加速释放\n\n市场动态:6月通胀超预期上行,零售销售意外增长显示需求依然强劲;美债利率再创新低多头增加,美元空头大降\n►资产表现:债>股>大宗;利率再创新低,周期跑输\n过去一周毫无疑问是美国的重磅数据和事件周。在经历了超预期的6月通胀(《大超预期的通胀 vs.相对淡定的市场》)、依然鸽派的鲍威尔证词(《美联储依然不急于退出》)、超预期的零售销售但不及预期的消费者信心指数后,美股市场整体小幅收跌,金融周期跑输,同时10年美债利率再降近期新低并回落至1.29%,实际利率回落,但通胀预期抬升。全球主要资产来看,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌。\n过去一周,美元计价下,债>股>大宗,VIX、大豆、巴西股市、港股领涨;比特币、原油、英国股市、纳斯达克领跌\n\n过去一周,公用事业、家庭用品领涨;能源、半导体、消费者服务领跌\n\n过去一周,10年美债利率较上周回落约7bps,其中实际利率回落11bps,通胀预期上升4bps\n\n过去一周,疫情受损多及周期板块相对跑输,疫情受损少板块相对跑赢\n\n►情绪仓位:Put/call比例抬升,美元空头大幅减少\n过去一周,美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差。仓位方面,美元指数多头空头仓位大幅减少导致净多头大幅抬升;伴随美债利率的进一步回落,10年美债多头仓位大幅增加,2年美债空头仓位大幅减少。\nCBOE美股看空/看多期权比例(10天平均)较上周大幅抬升,目前高于历史均值-1倍标准差\n\n过去一周,欧美股市RSI点位均回落,日本及新兴抬升;布油回落\n\n过去一周,美元指数多头仓位继续增加,空头仓位大幅减少,净多头大幅抬升\n\n►资金流向:货基转为流出,股市加速流入。\n过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币基金大幅流出;分市场看,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入。\n过去一周,债市流入放缓,股市加速流入,货币市场基金转为大幅流出\n\n过去一周,美国及日本股市加速流入,发达欧洲流入放缓,以中国为代表的新兴市场转为流入\n\n►基本面与政策:6月通胀再超预期,零售强势增长。\n6月美国通胀超预期上行,二手车和出行相关仍是主要贡献。6月CPI同比5.4%环比0.9%,均高于前值且大幅超出市场预期。其中,二手车价格环比跳升10.5%,贡献了6月CPI环比增速的三分之一,缺少芯片等因素导致的供给受限依然是主要瓶颈。此外,机票、酒店等与疫情修复开放后的出行需求相关的服务也涨幅明显,例如6月计票价格环比达2.7%。\n6月零售销售环比意外增长0.6%,高于预期的-0.3%和前值(-1.7%)。分项看,汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,可能受近期供应紧缺和价格大涨拖累,但百货商店、杂货、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升。不过大超预期的零售消费被低于预期的密歇根大学消费者信心指数所抵消(7月80.8,低于前值85.5并不及预期(86.5)。与此同时,上周首申人数36.0万人,低于前值(38.6万人)但不及预期的35.0万人。\n过去一周经济数据总结\n\n美国6月CPI再超预期,同比5.4%环比0.9%,二手车和出行相关服务依然是最主要贡献\n\n美国6月零售销售环比 0.6%,高于预期的-0.3%\n\n分项看,汽车与零部件零售销售环比下降2%,但百货商店、杂货店、电子和家用电器等较前月抬升\n\n过去一周,美联储平均日度逆回购使用量仍处高位,超8000亿美元\n\n 美联储资产负债表目前规模约8.20万亿美元,较上周抬升明显\n\n►市场估值:估值略有回落。\n伴随10年美债利率上周的持续回落,当前标普500指数27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长(6月ISM制造业PMI=60.6)和流动性(10年美债利率1.36%)能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)。包括欧洲、日本、新兴在内的全球主要市场股市的估值水平均有回落,但处于历史相对高位。\n当前标普500指数12个月动态P/E微降至21.3倍,超过1990年以来均值向上一倍标准差\n\n当前标普500的27.7倍静态P/E基本处于增长和流动性能够支撑的合理水平(~27.9倍)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170432016,"gmtCreate":1626445147035,"gmtModify":1633926669185,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>起来不要做弱者","listText":"<a 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","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154828938","repostId":"1168133884","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168133884","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625021330,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168133884?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 10:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"提醒:因美国独立日假期,7月5日美股全天休市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期,7月5日(周一)美股休市一日,7月6日(周二)起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介:\n独立日是美国法定国庆日,日期为每年7月4日,以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>因美国独立日假期,7月5日(周一)美股休市一日,7月6日(周二)起恢复交易。</b></p>\n<p>港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</p>\n<p><b>背景简介:</b></p>\n<p><b>独立日</b>是美国法定国庆日,日期为每年7月4日,以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日,与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重,老百姓在节日前清洁院落,装饰家居,悬挂国旗。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>提醒:因美国独立日假期,7月5日美股全天休市</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n提醒:因美国独立日假期,7月5日美股全天休市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-30 10:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>因美国独立日假期,7月5日(周一)美股休市一日,7月6日(周二)起恢复交易。</b></p>\n<p>港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。</p>\n<p><b>背景简介:</b></p>\n<p><b>独立日</b>是美国法定国庆日,日期为每年7月4日,以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日,与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重,老百姓在节日前清洁院落,装饰家居,悬挂国旗。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期,7月5日(周一)美股休市一日,7月6日(周二)起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介:\n独立日是美国法定国庆日,日期为每年7月4日,以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日,与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重,老百姓在节日前清洁院落,装饰家居,悬挂国旗。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":155887731,"gmtCreate":1625401641523,"gmtModify":1633940934955,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"听着","listText":"听着","text":"听着","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155887731","repostId":"2148807090","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153510155,"gmtCreate":1625033655177,"gmtModify":1633945596529,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153510155","repostId":"1184684410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":124040624,"gmtCreate":1624711784468,"gmtModify":1633949371647,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124040624","repostId":"1183924667","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121006293,"gmtCreate":1624442303812,"gmtModify":1634006101026,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"how","listText":"how","text":"how","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121006293","repostId":"1174176610","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174176610","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624440360,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174176610?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-23 17:26","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"科技股全面暴涨,怎么才能吃肉?(附名单)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174176610","media":"原来是凌乐","summary":"今天,科技股全面爆发,国家大基金持股、中芯国际概念、MCU芯片、语音技术和光刻胶板块均是大幅度上涨,盐湖提锂板块更是全天强势,连个小幅回调都没有,要不是白酒和大蓝筹下跌,拖累了大盘,今天真有一种牛市爆","content":"<p>今天,科技股全面爆发,国家大基金持股、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>概念、MCU芯片、语音技术和光刻胶板块均是大幅度上涨,盐湖提锂板块更是全天强势,连个小幅回调都没有,要不是白酒和大蓝筹下跌,拖累了大盘,今天真有一种牛市爆发期的感觉。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48372db3af32bd32a7e37cb0caa8687\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>果然,还是我熟悉的A股,一顿上涨猛如虎,回头一看,大盘涨了0.25。现在股市的分化非常明显,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">中国平安</a>、万科、美的这些大盘蓝筹股天天创新低,半导体、新能源汽车和科技股却连续上涨,而且都是暴涨,20cm的涨停也是不在少数,更离谱的东鹏特饮、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600905\">三峡能源</a>更是连续封板,当真是选好了吃肉,选差了挨打,还好,我最近的持仓都是市场热门概念,没有挨打。</p>\n<p>在今天科技股暴涨之后,科技股牛市的呼声再起,大家最大的疑问就是科技股牛市真的来了吗?哪些才是真正的科技股?我们又该如何选股?</p>\n<p>本文,我们就来聊聊当下最火的科技股概念。</p>\n<p><b>01、什么是科技股?</b></p>\n<p>一说到科技股,大家就以为是在说半导体和芯片,其实科技股是一个大类,既包含5G、云服务这类软件和信息类机构,又包含计算机、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>这类硬件公司,甚至还包含一些互联网公司,简单来说,就是产品和服务具有高技术含量的企业。</p>\n<p>但是在股市,不同时期都有代表性的科技股,回顾A股历史,一共有五轮科技股浪潮,第一轮炒作的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>产业链、第二轮是移动互联网,第三轮是互联网+,第四轮是半导体,第五轮是5G产业链,所以科技股没有确定的概念,只有最适合当下的概念。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844a194beb5158eb671014bdce539dce\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>那当前最火热的科技股概念是什么?</p>\n<p>咱们直接看涨幅榜就知道了,查询最近20日概念板块涨幅榜,涨幅最大的就是鸿蒙、半导体、光刻胶和集成电路,很明显,鸿蒙和半导体就是当下最火热的科技股概念。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653708915aae9f02c4426c3fba99f4ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1711\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是光看近20日的涨幅榜还不够,如果当真是科技股的牛市,周期就要看得更远,于是我统计了一下从2020年初到现在的板块涨幅榜,你会发现涨幅最大的板块基本全都是科技股,服务机器人、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>、电池、化学材料这些板块,都是当前市场炒作最热门的科技股概念,而汽车整车和半导体,无疑是炒作的龙头。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3052b7a73b6410f53234cfa7d83231b8\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这里不得不说一下新能源汽车板块,这个板块理论上也应当划分到科技股的范畴之中,而不是传统工业,因为新能源汽车产业链中的自动驾驶、电池、驾驶辅助系统等都属于科技股,而新能源汽车也属于新物种,从市场估值来看,新能源汽车好多个股市盈率超过百倍,明显就是科技股的估值。</p>\n<p>所以,这一轮科技股行情,<b>就是在半导体和新能源汽车的带动之下,偶尔炒作服务机器人、电池、新材料和航天装备这些板块</b>,它们才是当前的科技股。</p>\n<p><b>02、为什么炒作科技股?</b></p>\n<p>我认为,科技股的炒作逻辑有三个</p>\n<p><b>一:产业政策倾斜</b></p>\n<p>从2019年开始,政策就给科技股一路开绿灯,先是专门建立了科创板,方便8类科技企业直接融资,不用排队;再是放宽创业板融资门槛,给那些不是纯粹科技股的企业进一步融资的机会</p>\n<p>公开数据显示,中国2018年在科技方面的研发投入金额约2万亿,每年都以两位数增长,<b>中国正处于科技兴国的快车道</b>。</p>\n<p><b>二:市场资金涌入</b></p>\n<p>我A股的真主力其实只有两个,基金和外资。</p>\n<p>近期双创50ETF上市,普通投资者借道基金入场科创板的渠道就更多了,没有散户的科创板是没有灵魂的,散户过多的创业板是混乱的,有了双创50基金,散户也能跟随吃肉又不至于扰乱市场,完美。</p>\n<p>而且我统计了一下,最近一年新发基金的审核明显偏向于科技类基金,官方在有意引导资金的流向,限制资金流向传统行业,大家都知道,基金就代表了购买力,发行得越多,那个主题必将持续走高。</p>\n<p>而且近期北向资金加仓科技股的趋势也非常明显,尽管持股总量还比较少,但外资确实在加仓科技类股票。</p>\n<p>在散户、基金和外资的三重驱动下,近期科创50指数连续大涨,涨幅远高于主板。</p>\n<p><b>三:行业利润的崛起</b></p>\n<p>下图我统计了一下科技股板块2021年Q1净利润环比增幅,要知道,大多数企业都是有经营周期的,因为过年假期因素,一般Q1都是销量淡季,全行业平均净利润增幅为-12%,但是这些科技股净利润都是翻倍式的增长,增幅非常恐怖。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738a2b90c4d119b0c33fd1c9a3535380\" tg-width=\"487\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在这种业绩增幅之下,只要能保证业绩持续增长,再高的估值也会被迅速消化。所以,在政策倾斜、国产替代和行业崛起的三大风口之下,科技股俨然已是拉不回头的牛,市场仍有较大投资空间。</p>\n<p><b>03、如何筛选科技股?</b></p>\n<p>在科技股连续大涨之后,如果接盘了没有基本面支撑的个股,很容易踩雷,所以我们在选股方面得相当谨慎。</p>\n<p>上一篇文章我在讲成长股的时候,总觉得有某个地方缺失了,后来一想才知道,其实我真正看好的是科技类成长股,并不是周期类成长股,两者有本质的区别。</p>\n<p>科技类成长股是在技术升级的基础上,产生新的市场需求,或者以前是国外进口的科技产品现在转为国内自产,业绩就能持续增长;</p>\n<p>而周期类成长股可能是因为去年疫情导致需求下降,今年经济回复,导致短期业绩暴增,造成业绩增长的错觉,其实持续性并不强,很容易产生价值投资陷阱,例如当下的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">中国平安</a>、万科、美的等企业,利润和营收都在增长,就是股价跌跌不休,存在明显的价值投资陷阱。</p>\n<p>所以,我们本次选股,就是在上一篇成长股的基础上,筛选出以上几个板块的个股,此时建议各位回顾一下上文《账户重回新高,下半年重点关注这些股!》,最后我给出了一个70支个股的名单,此时我们就在这70支个股中筛选出当前的热门科技股。</p>\n<p>我筛选之后,发现只有5、6支可选,范围有些小了,就不放在文章中了,各位如果想参考一下的话,在对话框回复“<b>科技成长股</b>”五个字,就有我选出来的名单了。</p>\n<p>我看了一下我筛选出来的个股,前期涨幅都还挺大的,使用的数据都是2021年Q1的数据,要是那个时候就采用这种选股法多好,颇有直拍大腿错过了的感觉。</p>\n<p>股市行情越是火热,大家越要擦亮眼睛,据我观察,短期涨幅最大的个股大概率不是基本面最好的,相反,基本面越差可能涨幅越大,但这绝不是我们去选垃圾股的理由,长期来看,只有那些业绩持续向好,利润增速不断提高的企业,才能不断突破前高,即使短线被套,回血的速度也会很快。</p>\n<p>不要今天因为看到科技股吃肉,就盲目追高,还是重视一下基本面。</p>","source":"lsy1570673087328","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科技股全面暴涨,怎么才能吃肉?(附名单)</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技股全面暴涨,怎么才能吃肉?(附名单)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 17:26 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWChgLrw78fxAfWWKFqpPQ><strong>原来是凌乐</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天,科技股全面爆发,国家大基金持股、中芯国际概念、MCU芯片、语音技术和光刻胶板块均是大幅度上涨,盐湖提锂板块更是全天强势,连个小幅回调都没有,要不是白酒和大蓝筹下跌,拖累了大盘,今天真有一种牛市爆发期的感觉。\n\n果然,还是我熟悉的A股,一顿上涨猛如虎,回头一看,大盘涨了0.25。现在股市的分化非常明显,中国平安、万科、美的这些大盘蓝筹股天天创新低,半导体、新能源汽车和科技股却连续上涨,而且都是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWChgLrw78fxAfWWKFqpPQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wWChgLrw78fxAfWWKFqpPQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174176610","content_text":"今天,科技股全面爆发,国家大基金持股、中芯国际概念、MCU芯片、语音技术和光刻胶板块均是大幅度上涨,盐湖提锂板块更是全天强势,连个小幅回调都没有,要不是白酒和大蓝筹下跌,拖累了大盘,今天真有一种牛市爆发期的感觉。\n\n果然,还是我熟悉的A股,一顿上涨猛如虎,回头一看,大盘涨了0.25。现在股市的分化非常明显,中国平安、万科、美的这些大盘蓝筹股天天创新低,半导体、新能源汽车和科技股却连续上涨,而且都是暴涨,20cm的涨停也是不在少数,更离谱的东鹏特饮、三峡能源更是连续封板,当真是选好了吃肉,选差了挨打,还好,我最近的持仓都是市场热门概念,没有挨打。\n在今天科技股暴涨之后,科技股牛市的呼声再起,大家最大的疑问就是科技股牛市真的来了吗?哪些才是真正的科技股?我们又该如何选股?\n本文,我们就来聊聊当下最火的科技股概念。\n01、什么是科技股?\n一说到科技股,大家就以为是在说半导体和芯片,其实科技股是一个大类,既包含5G、云服务这类软件和信息类机构,又包含计算机、机器人这类硬件公司,甚至还包含一些互联网公司,简单来说,就是产品和服务具有高技术含量的企业。\n但是在股市,不同时期都有代表性的科技股,回顾A股历史,一共有五轮科技股浪潮,第一轮炒作的是苹果产业链、第二轮是移动互联网,第三轮是互联网+,第四轮是半导体,第五轮是5G产业链,所以科技股没有确定的概念,只有最适合当下的概念。\n\n那当前最火热的科技股概念是什么?\n咱们直接看涨幅榜就知道了,查询最近20日概念板块涨幅榜,涨幅最大的就是鸿蒙、半导体、光刻胶和集成电路,很明显,鸿蒙和半导体就是当下最火热的科技股概念。\n\n但是光看近20日的涨幅榜还不够,如果当真是科技股的牛市,周期就要看得更远,于是我统计了一下从2020年初到现在的板块涨幅榜,你会发现涨幅最大的板块基本全都是科技股,服务机器人、太阳能、电池、化学材料这些板块,都是当前市场炒作最热门的科技股概念,而汽车整车和半导体,无疑是炒作的龙头。\n\n这里不得不说一下新能源汽车板块,这个板块理论上也应当划分到科技股的范畴之中,而不是传统工业,因为新能源汽车产业链中的自动驾驶、电池、驾驶辅助系统等都属于科技股,而新能源汽车也属于新物种,从市场估值来看,新能源汽车好多个股市盈率超过百倍,明显就是科技股的估值。\n所以,这一轮科技股行情,就是在半导体和新能源汽车的带动之下,偶尔炒作服务机器人、电池、新材料和航天装备这些板块,它们才是当前的科技股。\n02、为什么炒作科技股?\n我认为,科技股的炒作逻辑有三个\n一:产业政策倾斜\n从2019年开始,政策就给科技股一路开绿灯,先是专门建立了科创板,方便8类科技企业直接融资,不用排队;再是放宽创业板融资门槛,给那些不是纯粹科技股的企业进一步融资的机会\n公开数据显示,中国2018年在科技方面的研发投入金额约2万亿,每年都以两位数增长,中国正处于科技兴国的快车道。\n二:市场资金涌入\n我A股的真主力其实只有两个,基金和外资。\n近期双创50ETF上市,普通投资者借道基金入场科创板的渠道就更多了,没有散户的科创板是没有灵魂的,散户过多的创业板是混乱的,有了双创50基金,散户也能跟随吃肉又不至于扰乱市场,完美。\n而且我统计了一下,最近一年新发基金的审核明显偏向于科技类基金,官方在有意引导资金的流向,限制资金流向传统行业,大家都知道,基金就代表了购买力,发行得越多,那个主题必将持续走高。\n而且近期北向资金加仓科技股的趋势也非常明显,尽管持股总量还比较少,但外资确实在加仓科技类股票。\n在散户、基金和外资的三重驱动下,近期科创50指数连续大涨,涨幅远高于主板。\n三:行业利润的崛起\n下图我统计了一下科技股板块2021年Q1净利润环比增幅,要知道,大多数企业都是有经营周期的,因为过年假期因素,一般Q1都是销量淡季,全行业平均净利润增幅为-12%,但是这些科技股净利润都是翻倍式的增长,增幅非常恐怖。\n\n在这种业绩增幅之下,只要能保证业绩持续增长,再高的估值也会被迅速消化。所以,在政策倾斜、国产替代和行业崛起的三大风口之下,科技股俨然已是拉不回头的牛,市场仍有较大投资空间。\n03、如何筛选科技股?\n在科技股连续大涨之后,如果接盘了没有基本面支撑的个股,很容易踩雷,所以我们在选股方面得相当谨慎。\n上一篇文章我在讲成长股的时候,总觉得有某个地方缺失了,后来一想才知道,其实我真正看好的是科技类成长股,并不是周期类成长股,两者有本质的区别。\n科技类成长股是在技术升级的基础上,产生新的市场需求,或者以前是国外进口的科技产品现在转为国内自产,业绩就能持续增长;\n而周期类成长股可能是因为去年疫情导致需求下降,今年经济回复,导致短期业绩暴增,造成业绩增长的错觉,其实持续性并不强,很容易产生价值投资陷阱,例如当下的中国平安、万科、美的等企业,利润和营收都在增长,就是股价跌跌不休,存在明显的价值投资陷阱。\n所以,我们本次选股,就是在上一篇成长股的基础上,筛选出以上几个板块的个股,此时建议各位回顾一下上文《账户重回新高,下半年重点关注这些股!》,最后我给出了一个70支个股的名单,此时我们就在这70支个股中筛选出当前的热门科技股。\n我筛选之后,发现只有5、6支可选,范围有些小了,就不放在文章中了,各位如果想参考一下的话,在对话框回复“科技成长股”五个字,就有我选出来的名单了。\n我看了一下我筛选出来的个股,前期涨幅都还挺大的,使用的数据都是2021年Q1的数据,要是那个时候就采用这种选股法多好,颇有直拍大腿错过了的感觉。\n股市行情越是火热,大家越要擦亮眼睛,据我观察,短期涨幅最大的个股大概率不是基本面最好的,相反,基本面越差可能涨幅越大,但这绝不是我们去选垃圾股的理由,长期来看,只有那些业绩持续向好,利润增速不断提高的企业,才能不断突破前高,即使短线被套,回血的速度也会很快。\n不要今天因为看到科技股吃肉,就盲目追高,还是重视一下基本面。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":851591520,"gmtCreate":1634913186517,"gmtModify":1634913186979,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$股市大回调,十月第二星期老虎就发威了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865985443","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":105658127,"gmtCreate":1620300636469,"gmtModify":1634206271997,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>why like that","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>why like that","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$why like that","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dadfdd8fda6566771471f52dd50a320d","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105658127","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801088538,"gmtCreate":1627473392424,"gmtModify":1633764690425,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801088538","repostId":"1117872420","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117872420","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信,提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据,包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1627472509,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117872420?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 19:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"纳斯达克梦向三万点,或在这一个十年?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117872420","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"近期市场迎来美股财报季,苹果、特斯拉 、谷歌母公司等一个个靓丽的财报被披露,市场期待美股将继续上涨,甚至一度有纳斯达克指数冲上三万点的呼声。\n不过对于目前还在一万五千点附近徘徊的纳斯达克指数来说,站上","content":"<p>近期市场迎来美股财报季,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司等一个个靓丽的财报被披露,市场期待美股将继续上涨,<b>甚至一度有纳斯达克指数冲上三万点的呼声</b>。</p>\n<p>不过对于目前还在一万五千点附近徘徊的纳斯达克指数来说,站上三万点无疑有些天方夜谭。但是如果你仔细研究一下过去的数据的话,纳指未来站上三万点或许并不是痴人说梦。</p>\n<p>在去年3月份的时候,纳斯达克指数还处于七千点下方。仅仅用了一年多的时间纳斯达克指数就翻了一倍来到了一万五千点。假如该指数继续以过去 12 个月的速度上涨的话,它将在短短两年内达到一个令人难以置信的里程碑——<b>三万点</b>!</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a4c8fc1297e84b4d3b550a54e7d7313\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>当然去年由于<b>疫情</b>的原因导致其处于低位,后面在市场的刺激下上涨速度较快。假如我们以纳斯达克指数在<b>过去五年中的回报速度</b>为基准,纳斯达克到达三万点的速度也只会略微增加到3.3 年。</p>\n<p>但是我们如果再次扩大时间线,回到互联网泡沫之前的峰值,以<b>过去21年的增速</b>为基准,纳斯达克指数就还需要14年才能到达三万点。</p>\n<p>所以,假如我们不考虑现阶段的各种因素,比如市场是否被高估,当前利率环境和财政政策等,只是简单的按照过去的涨跌幅来推断未来,那么我们需要尽可能多的回顾过去。就美国股市而言,数据至少可以追溯到1793年。</p>\n<p>由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授Edward McQuarrie提供的数据库显示,自 1793 年以来的整体市场年化回报率比通胀率高 6.1%;而根据克利夫兰联储的数据模型显示,未来十年的通胀预期为1.6%,<b>则整体市场的回报率为7.7%</b>。</p>\n<p>根据Ken French教授自 1926 年以来关于大盘增长板块表现的数据(该板块与纳斯达克综合指数的股票最接近),<b>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的回报要低0.1%</b>。</p>\n<p>也就是说,<b>未来几年纳斯达克的名义回报率仅为7.6%</b>,这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去 12 个月 41.8% 的回报率,也低于过去五年 23.8% 的年化回报率。</p>\n<p>世界上没有只涨不跌的东西,该贪婪的时候要贪婪,该恐惧的时候更要恐惧。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>纳斯达克梦向三万点,或在这一个十年?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n纳斯达克梦向三万点,或在这一个十年?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-28 19:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>近期市场迎来美股财报季,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司等一个个靓丽的财报被披露,市场期待美股将继续上涨,<b>甚至一度有纳斯达克指数冲上三万点的呼声</b>。</p>\n<p>不过对于目前还在一万五千点附近徘徊的纳斯达克指数来说,站上三万点无疑有些天方夜谭。但是如果你仔细研究一下过去的数据的话,纳指未来站上三万点或许并不是痴人说梦。</p>\n<p>在去年3月份的时候,纳斯达克指数还处于七千点下方。仅仅用了一年多的时间纳斯达克指数就翻了一倍来到了一万五千点。假如该指数继续以过去 12 个月的速度上涨的话,它将在短短两年内达到一个令人难以置信的里程碑——<b>三万点</b>!</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a4c8fc1297e84b4d3b550a54e7d7313\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>当然去年由于<b>疫情</b>的原因导致其处于低位,后面在市场的刺激下上涨速度较快。假如我们以纳斯达克指数在<b>过去五年中的回报速度</b>为基准,纳斯达克到达三万点的速度也只会略微增加到3.3 年。</p>\n<p>但是我们如果再次扩大时间线,回到互联网泡沫之前的峰值,以<b>过去21年的增速</b>为基准,纳斯达克指数就还需要14年才能到达三万点。</p>\n<p>所以,假如我们不考虑现阶段的各种因素,比如市场是否被高估,当前利率环境和财政政策等,只是简单的按照过去的涨跌幅来推断未来,那么我们需要尽可能多的回顾过去。就美国股市而言,数据至少可以追溯到1793年。</p>\n<p>由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授Edward McQuarrie提供的数据库显示,自 1793 年以来的整体市场年化回报率比通胀率高 6.1%;而根据克利夫兰联储的数据模型显示,未来十年的通胀预期为1.6%,<b>则整体市场的回报率为7.7%</b>。</p>\n<p>根据Ken French教授自 1926 年以来关于大盘增长板块表现的数据(该板块与纳斯达克综合指数的股票最接近),<b>纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的回报要低0.1%</b>。</p>\n<p>也就是说,<b>未来几年纳斯达克的名义回报率仅为7.6%</b>,这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去 12 个月 41.8% 的回报率,也低于过去五年 23.8% 的年化回报率。</p>\n<p>世界上没有只涨不跌的东西,该贪婪的时候要贪婪,该恐惧的时候更要恐惧。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117872420","content_text":"近期市场迎来美股财报季,苹果、特斯拉 、谷歌母公司等一个个靓丽的财报被披露,市场期待美股将继续上涨,甚至一度有纳斯达克指数冲上三万点的呼声。\n不过对于目前还在一万五千点附近徘徊的纳斯达克指数来说,站上三万点无疑有些天方夜谭。但是如果你仔细研究一下过去的数据的话,纳指未来站上三万点或许并不是痴人说梦。\n在去年3月份的时候,纳斯达克指数还处于七千点下方。仅仅用了一年多的时间纳斯达克指数就翻了一倍来到了一万五千点。假如该指数继续以过去 12 个月的速度上涨的话,它将在短短两年内达到一个令人难以置信的里程碑——三万点!\n\n当然去年由于疫情的原因导致其处于低位,后面在市场的刺激下上涨速度较快。假如我们以纳斯达克指数在过去五年中的回报速度为基准,纳斯达克到达三万点的速度也只会略微增加到3.3 年。\n但是我们如果再次扩大时间线,回到互联网泡沫之前的峰值,以过去21年的增速为基准,纳斯达克指数就还需要14年才能到达三万点。\n所以,假如我们不考虑现阶段的各种因素,比如市场是否被高估,当前利率环境和财政政策等,只是简单的按照过去的涨跌幅来推断未来,那么我们需要尽可能多的回顾过去。就美国股市而言,数据至少可以追溯到1793年。\n由圣克拉拉大学利维商学院名誉教授Edward McQuarrie提供的数据库显示,自 1793 年以来的整体市场年化回报率比通胀率高 6.1%;而根据克利夫兰联储的数据模型显示,未来十年的通胀预期为1.6%,则整体市场的回报率为7.7%。\n根据Ken French教授自 1926 年以来关于大盘增长板块表现的数据(该板块与纳斯达克综合指数的股票最接近),纳斯达克综合指数相对于整体市场的回报要低0.1%。\n也就是说,未来几年纳斯达克的名义回报率仅为7.6%,这远低于纳斯达克综合指数过去 12 个月 41.8% 的回报率,也低于过去五年 23.8% 的年化回报率。\n世界上没有只涨不跌的东西,该贪婪的时候要贪婪,该恐惧的时候更要恐惧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197858127,"gmtCreate":1621443397469,"gmtModify":1634189099213,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>跳来跳去还是在原地","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>跳来跳去还是在原地","text":"$AMD(AMD)$跳来跳去还是在原地","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197858127","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378820256,"gmtCreate":1619016462775,"gmtModify":1631888037598,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$沃尔玛(WMT)$</a>加油","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$沃尔玛(WMT)$</a>加油","text":"$沃尔玛(WMT)$加油","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3d22c53013020fe25ff4388976c7fb9","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378820256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371871690,"gmtCreate":1618928840210,"gmtModify":1634289816744,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>成交量高,换手率高,就是不上,直得长期持有,慢慢爬","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>成交量高,换手率高,就是不上,直得长期持有,慢慢爬","text":"$AMD(AMD)$成交量高,换手率高,就是不上,直得长期持有,慢慢爬","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/593b70939e4bc1aa283f9047f5bda982","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371871690","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116251484,"gmtCreate":1622806594648,"gmtModify":1634097842417,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑] ","listText":"[微笑] ","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116251484","repostId":"2140038824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140038824","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1622802456,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140038824?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 18:27","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美联储“三把手”:现在不是美联储调整购债规模的好时机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140038824","media":"金十数据","summary":"威廉姆斯表示,现在不是采取行动的时候,还不考虑调整购债。","content":"<p>纽约联储行长<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>(John Williams)表示,尽管美联储官员讨论未来的选择是合理的,但现在不是美联储调整其债券购买计划的时候。</p><p>威廉姆斯周四在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YHOO\">雅虎</a>的一篇金融采访中说:</p><blockquote>“经济已经改善并步入正轨,但在我看来,就购买购债而言,我们离真正期待的‘实质性进展’还有相当远的距离。”</blockquote><p>他还说道:</p><blockquote>“也就是说,我们需要思考未来,计划未来,设想未来可能存在的各种选择,理解当前和未来的经济发展情况。”</blockquote><p>美联储目前每月买入1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券,这是美联储去年为应对疫情而实施的政策计划的一部分。美联储官员曾表示,当经济朝着目标取得“实质性进展”时,他们将开始缩减购买规模。许多美联储观察人士认为,这一条件将在今年晚些时候得到满足。</p><p>Evercore ISI副董事长克里希纳·古哈(Krishna Guha)在给客户的一份报告中写道:</p><blockquote>“<b>威廉姆斯的评论暗示美联储最早会在即将到来的6月FOMC会议上就缩减量化宽松展开讨论,如果不是的话,讨论就会在7月之前开始。</b>”</blockquote><p>美联储最新会议纪要显示,一些与会者表明如果经济继续朝着委员会的目标高速发展,或许在即将召开的会议上开始讨论调整资产购买计划是合适的。</p><p>美联储监管副主席夸尔斯和克拉里达上周也提到了“即将召开的会议”。</p><p><img src=\"https://cdn-news.jin10.com/72ecbe6c-6188-4d97-baf6-05eb82bbed88.png\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>为了消除不必要的通胀威胁,一些政策制定者已经开始公开敦促尽早讨论缩减债务购买规模。上周公布的数据显示,美联储惯用的物价压力指标CPI在4月升至3.6%。</p><p>但是威廉姆斯却轻描淡写长期超过美联储2%目标的通胀风险。他说:</p><blockquote>“我个人认为,我们所看到的通胀指标增长,在很大程度上是由之前下跌的价格开始逆转造成的,我们通常称之为基数效应,再加上二手车等特殊因素,通胀指标才会看上去如此可怕。”</blockquote><p>威廉姆斯指出,在当前存在供应链问题和供应短缺的背景下,低库存的企业可能很难适应美国经济的快速复苏。但他同时也认为,“这些都将在未来几个月或几个季度内得到解决。”</p><p>除此之外,他还说,美联储为追踪潜在价格压力而制定的通胀指标显示,“价格温和上涨更符合或接近我们的2%目标。”达拉斯联储4月份削减后的平均个人消费支出与去年同期相比上升了1.8%。</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储“三把手”:现在不是美联储调整购债规模的好时机</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储“三把手”:现在不是美联储调整购债规模的好时机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-04 18:27 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=75548&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>纽约联储行长威廉姆斯(John Williams)表示,尽管美联储官员讨论未来的选择是合理的,但现在不是美联储调整其债券购买计划的时候。威廉姆斯周四在雅虎的一篇金融采访中说:“经济已经改善并步入正轨,但在我看来,就购买购债而言,我们离真正期待的‘实质性进展’还有相当远的距离。”他还说道:“也就是说,我们需要思考未来,计划未来,设想未来可能存在的各种选择,理解当前和未来的经济发展情况。”美联储目前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=75548&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c685480ed37cb27252b8611b704480cc","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEX":"标普100","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=75548&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140038824","content_text":"纽约联储行长威廉姆斯(John Williams)表示,尽管美联储官员讨论未来的选择是合理的,但现在不是美联储调整其债券购买计划的时候。威廉姆斯周四在雅虎的一篇金融采访中说:“经济已经改善并步入正轨,但在我看来,就购买购债而言,我们离真正期待的‘实质性进展’还有相当远的距离。”他还说道:“也就是说,我们需要思考未来,计划未来,设想未来可能存在的各种选择,理解当前和未来的经济发展情况。”美联储目前每月买入1200亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券,这是美联储去年为应对疫情而实施的政策计划的一部分。美联储官员曾表示,当经济朝着目标取得“实质性进展”时,他们将开始缩减购买规模。许多美联储观察人士认为,这一条件将在今年晚些时候得到满足。Evercore ISI副董事长克里希纳·古哈(Krishna Guha)在给客户的一份报告中写道:“威廉姆斯的评论暗示美联储最早会在即将到来的6月FOMC会议上就缩减量化宽松展开讨论,如果不是的话,讨论就会在7月之前开始。”美联储最新会议纪要显示,一些与会者表明如果经济继续朝着委员会的目标高速发展,或许在即将召开的会议上开始讨论调整资产购买计划是合适的。美联储监管副主席夸尔斯和克拉里达上周也提到了“即将召开的会议”。为了消除不必要的通胀威胁,一些政策制定者已经开始公开敦促尽早讨论缩减债务购买规模。上周公布的数据显示,美联储惯用的物价压力指标CPI在4月升至3.6%。但是威廉姆斯却轻描淡写长期超过美联储2%目标的通胀风险。他说:“我个人认为,我们所看到的通胀指标增长,在很大程度上是由之前下跌的价格开始逆转造成的,我们通常称之为基数效应,再加上二手车等特殊因素,通胀指标才会看上去如此可怕。”威廉姆斯指出,在当前存在供应链问题和供应短缺的背景下,低库存的企业可能很难适应美国经济的快速复苏。但他同时也认为,“这些都将在未来几个月或几个季度内得到解决。”除此之外,他还说,美联储为追踪潜在价格压力而制定的通胀指标显示,“价格温和上涨更符合或接近我们的2%目标。”达拉斯联储4月份削减后的平均个人消费支出与去年同期相比上升了1.8%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":136545832,"gmtCreate":1622032273626,"gmtModify":1634184516830,"author":{"id":"3579811671570199","authorId":"3579811671570199","name":"IvySim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe704e89a678bcf3fea5afbb28934926","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579811671570199","authorIdStr":"3579811671570199"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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