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面如冠玉的泰格
2021-10-22
$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$
$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$
参与一下历史 不敢下重手啊…
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-10-06
$默沙东(MRK)$
看来市场不太买账啊…
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-08-14
$Unity Software Inc.(U)$
笔芯😘 压力位139 前面破位的话还是会走的
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-08-05
$Square, Inc(SQ)$
加油先破280⛽️
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-10-27
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
[喷血]
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-04-19
$腾讯音乐(TME)$
为什么我在躺枪三傻里面偏偏选了你呢😭
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-10-14
$西方石油(OXY)$
跟跌不跟涨
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-08-06
$奇景光电(HIMX)$
山顶等着
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-05-24
$小米集团-W(01810)$
阻力位难破
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-05-11
$腾讯音乐(TME)$
这架势感觉得套好几年啊
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-07-14
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
跌破区间 之前又怂了没有及时走 😢 但是地量…所以还是拿着吗………
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-11-08
$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$
醒醒啊
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-05-08
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
开个小仓先…
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-10-04
$西方石油(OXY)$
为啥不能盘前买
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-08-06
$高通(QCOM)$
终于醒了吗
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-05-05
$腾讯音乐(TME)$
再等一个反垄断结果…
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-10-21
$马拉松石油(MRO)$
醒醒 油价新高了
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-10-13
$西方石油(OXY)$
期货都转涨了 这货还没睡醒
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-08-14
$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$
前高264 之下若转弱则走人 冲上去再入
面如冠玉的泰格
2021-08-09
$波司登(03998)$
挺强势的 观察👀
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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10:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎点评:推特CEO辞职,说明不看好元宇宙?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162094402","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Dorsey辞去Twitter CEO一职成为除了Omicron变种之外,被讨论的最多的事情。","content":"<p>美股反弹,疫苗股大涨(Moderna +10%),中概股继续低迷,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>创52周新低。交易量一直低迷的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>筹明日季报前交易量暴增10倍,股价涨10%。</p>\n<p><b>Jack Dorsey辞去<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> CEO</b></p>\n<p>感恩节后的资本市场相对安静,Dorsey辞去Twitter CEO一职成为除了Omicron变种之外,被讨论的最多的事情。Twitter的股价在这个新闻出来的时候先是跳涨5%,但随后就一路下跌收盘跌2%(纳斯达克今日涨1.85)。尽管Elliott Management一直在推动Dorsey离开推特,但是很显然,资本市场并不认为Dorsey的离开是件好事情。</p>\n<p>Dorsey担任两家公司的CEO,Twitter和Square。以今天收盘计算,Square的市值$980亿,推特的市值$360亿。从过去5年的股价表现来看,Square(蓝色)更是大幅超越了Twitter(橙色)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f3af5dce8510a7e2ca3ef4b23aa4ecd\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>辞去了Twitter一职,Dorsey可以全身心投入到加密货币中去,<b>放弃Twitter也代表Dorsey并不太相信社交网络和元宇宙的结合</b>。尽管没有公开对元宇宙表态,但是Dorsey对Zuckerberg拥抱元宇宙,嗤之以鼻。</p>\n<p>接替Dorsey一职的人叫Parag Agrawal,让人惊叹,有一个硅谷科技公司被印度人/印裔接管。尽管印度人在硅谷搞初创公司的不多,但大的科技公司找接任者的时候,印度人/印裔经常是首选。华裔留美精英们呢?</p>\n<p><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><b>Hertz租车(HTZ):宣布$20亿股票回购计划。 </b></p>\n<p><b>Twitter(TWTR):宣布CEO多西离职,CTO Agrawal将成为继任者。</b>多西将继续留任董事,直至2022年任期届满。Twitter维持财务指引不变。<b> </b></p>\n<p><b>Meta(FB):将变更股票代码的时间推后至2022年1季度。 </b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>(PFE):预计新冠药物Paxlovid的疗程可达8,000万,高于此前预计的5,000万。 </b></p>\n<p><b>诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX):重申计划年底在美国提交新冠疫苗的申请,今日跌11%。</b>此前一家律师事务所针对该公司提起集体诉讼,称其对公司业务、运营和前景作出遗漏和欺诈性虚假陈述。<b> </b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPI\">阳光动力</a>(SPI):旗下电动车制造商Phoenix Motors在美国申请IPO。</b>该公司成立于2003年,2009年推出手套电动传动系统,2014年发布首辆商用电动巴士。<b> </b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>(EDU):宣布进一步回购债券。</b>截至2021年11月29日,公司回购本金总额$1.115亿,约占债券初始本金的37.2%。</p>\n<p><b>其它</b></p>\n<p>全球累计确诊261,978,819例,累计死亡5,205,121例。美国确诊48,375,997例,死亡777,745例。纽约州目前确诊2,718,713例,死亡57,442例。</p>\n<p>鲍威尔:Omicron加重美国经济风险和通胀不确定性。</p>\n<p>拜登将于周三讲话,讨论经济和供应链问题。拜登今日在白宫会见了零售商高管。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎点评:推特CEO辞职,说明不看好元宇宙?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎点评:推特CEO辞职,说明不看好元宇宙?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-30 10:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>美股反弹,疫苗股大涨(Moderna +10%),中概股继续低迷,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>创52周新低。交易量一直低迷的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>筹明日季报前交易量暴增10倍,股价涨10%。</p>\n<p><b>Jack Dorsey辞去<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> CEO</b></p>\n<p>感恩节后的资本市场相对安静,Dorsey辞去Twitter CEO一职成为除了Omicron变种之外,被讨论的最多的事情。Twitter的股价在这个新闻出来的时候先是跳涨5%,但随后就一路下跌收盘跌2%(纳斯达克今日涨1.85)。尽管Elliott Management一直在推动Dorsey离开推特,但是很显然,资本市场并不认为Dorsey的离开是件好事情。</p>\n<p>Dorsey担任两家公司的CEO,Twitter和Square。以今天收盘计算,Square的市值$980亿,推特的市值$360亿。从过去5年的股价表现来看,Square(蓝色)更是大幅超越了Twitter(橙色)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f3af5dce8510a7e2ca3ef4b23aa4ecd\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>辞去了Twitter一职,Dorsey可以全身心投入到加密货币中去,<b>放弃Twitter也代表Dorsey并不太相信社交网络和元宇宙的结合</b>。尽管没有公开对元宇宙表态,但是Dorsey对Zuckerberg拥抱元宇宙,嗤之以鼻。</p>\n<p>接替Dorsey一职的人叫Parag Agrawal,让人惊叹,有一个硅谷科技公司被印度人/印裔接管。尽管印度人在硅谷搞初创公司的不多,但大的科技公司找接任者的时候,印度人/印裔经常是首选。华裔留美精英们呢?</p>\n<p><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><b>Hertz租车(HTZ):宣布$20亿股票回购计划。 </b></p>\n<p><b>Twitter(TWTR):宣布CEO多西离职,CTO Agrawal将成为继任者。</b>多西将继续留任董事,直至2022年任期届满。Twitter维持财务指引不变。<b> </b></p>\n<p><b>Meta(FB):将变更股票代码的时间推后至2022年1季度。 </b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>(PFE):预计新冠药物Paxlovid的疗程可达8,000万,高于此前预计的5,000万。 </b></p>\n<p><b>诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX):重申计划年底在美国提交新冠疫苗的申请,今日跌11%。</b>此前一家律师事务所针对该公司提起集体诉讼,称其对公司业务、运营和前景作出遗漏和欺诈性虚假陈述。<b> </b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPI\">阳光动力</a>(SPI):旗下电动车制造商Phoenix Motors在美国申请IPO。</b>该公司成立于2003年,2009年推出手套电动传动系统,2014年发布首辆商用电动巴士。<b> </b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>(EDU):宣布进一步回购债券。</b>截至2021年11月29日,公司回购本金总额$1.115亿,约占债券初始本金的37.2%。</p>\n<p><b>其它</b></p>\n<p>全球累计确诊261,978,819例,累计死亡5,205,121例。美国确诊48,375,997例,死亡777,745例。纽约州目前确诊2,718,713例,死亡57,442例。</p>\n<p>鲍威尔:Omicron加重美国经济风险和通胀不确定性。</p>\n<p>拜登将于周三讲话,讨论经济和供应链问题。拜登今日在白宫会见了零售商高管。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162094402","content_text":"美股反弹,疫苗股大涨(Moderna +10%),中概股继续低迷,阿里巴巴创52周新低。交易量一直低迷的水滴筹明日季报前交易量暴增10倍,股价涨10%。\nJack Dorsey辞去Twitter CEO\n感恩节后的资本市场相对安静,Dorsey辞去Twitter CEO一职成为除了Omicron变种之外,被讨论的最多的事情。Twitter的股价在这个新闻出来的时候先是跳涨5%,但随后就一路下跌收盘跌2%(纳斯达克今日涨1.85)。尽管Elliott Management一直在推动Dorsey离开推特,但是很显然,资本市场并不认为Dorsey的离开是件好事情。\nDorsey担任两家公司的CEO,Twitter和Square。以今天收盘计算,Square的市值$980亿,推特的市值$360亿。从过去5年的股价表现来看,Square(蓝色)更是大幅超越了Twitter(橙色)。\n\n辞去了Twitter一职,Dorsey可以全身心投入到加密货币中去,放弃Twitter也代表Dorsey并不太相信社交网络和元宇宙的结合。尽管没有公开对元宇宙表态,但是Dorsey对Zuckerberg拥抱元宇宙,嗤之以鼻。\n接替Dorsey一职的人叫Parag Agrawal,让人惊叹,有一个硅谷科技公司被印度人/印裔接管。尽管印度人在硅谷搞初创公司的不多,但大的科技公司找接任者的时候,印度人/印裔经常是首选。华裔留美精英们呢?\n公司新闻\nHertz租车(HTZ):宣布$20亿股票回购计划。 \nTwitter(TWTR):宣布CEO多西离职,CTO Agrawal将成为继任者。多西将继续留任董事,直至2022年任期届满。Twitter维持财务指引不变。 \nMeta(FB):将变更股票代码的时间推后至2022年1季度。 \n辉瑞(PFE):预计新冠药物Paxlovid的疗程可达8,000万,高于此前预计的5,000万。 \n诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX):重申计划年底在美国提交新冠疫苗的申请,今日跌11%。此前一家律师事务所针对该公司提起集体诉讼,称其对公司业务、运营和前景作出遗漏和欺诈性虚假陈述。 \n阳光动力(SPI):旗下电动车制造商Phoenix Motors在美国申请IPO。该公司成立于2003年,2009年推出手套电动传动系统,2014年发布首辆商用电动巴士。 \n新东方(EDU):宣布进一步回购债券。截至2021年11月29日,公司回购本金总额$1.115亿,约占债券初始本金的37.2%。\n其它\n全球累计确诊261,978,819例,累计死亡5,205,121例。美国确诊48,375,997例,死亡777,745例。纽约州目前确诊2,718,713例,死亡57,442例。\n鲍威尔:Omicron加重美国经济风险和通胀不确定性。\n拜登将于周三讲话,讨论经济和供应链问题。拜登今日在白宫会见了零售商高管。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872487625,"gmtCreate":1637561019274,"gmtModify":1637561019274,"author":{"id":"3576646113789799","authorId":"3576646113789799","name":"面如冠玉的泰格","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e00d39b41f5fcfc59c667f0b8acbfd6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] ","listText":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] ","text":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872487625","repostId":"2185826580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2185826580","pubTimestamp":1637548183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2185826580?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 10:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"价值投资中的陷阱","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2185826580","media":"格隆汇","summary":"引子\n每隔一段时间,市场就会跑出一群价值投资者。这个周期或长或短,上一次大概是在2017年的时候,那时候,人们言必称价值。\n那么,什么是价值投资者呢?关于这一点,并没有一个特别清晰的定义。人人都自诩价","content":"<p><b>引子</b></p>\n<p>每隔一段时间,市场就会跑出一群价值投资者。这个周期或长或短,上一次大概是在2017年的时候,那时候,人们言必称价值。</p>\n<p>那么,什么是价值投资者呢?关于这一点,并没有一个特别清晰的定义。人人都自诩价值投资,即便是<i><b>赛道投资者也是</b></i>——人家投资的是未来的价值。</p>\n<p>但是,如果我们把价值投资的定义收窄到<i><b>投资低PE或低PB的股票</b></i>,这个定义就很清晰了。</p>\n<p><i><b>2017年是此类策略的高光时刻。</b></i>以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">工商银行</a>(<i>代表低PE</i>)为例,在2016年-2017年,它的股价从低点的3.16上涨至高点的6.42 。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73b97ea1e5940890eb5fb76b588bf640\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>巴菲特是很多人心目中的偶像,很多投资在初入这个市场的时候,都或多或少地会受一种思想的蛊惑——<i><b>要买的足够便宜</b></i>。之所以如此,大概有4点原因:</p>\n<p><i><b>1、我们都想买的便宜;</b></i></p>\n<p><i><b>2、我们喜欢实实在在的东西——分红;</b></i></p>\n<p><i><b>3、我们都认为自己很聪明,有一双闪闪发光的大眼睛;</b></i></p>\n<p><i><b>4、有人成功过;</b></i></p>\n<p>理解清楚了这个渊源,就不难理解为什么<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">中国平安</a>里有那么多散户,也不难理解为什么很多人以银行股入坑。</p>\n<h3><b>至暗时刻</b></h3>\n<p>2018年市场进入了全面熊市,所有策略都不怎么样。</p>\n<p>进入2019年之后,市场出现了分化。成长类的股票一骑绝尘,简单粗暴地总结,PE高的越来越高,高得有些离谱。</p>\n<p>如果仅仅是别人涨自己不涨倒罢了,<i><b>很多老白马股</b></i>开始跌跌不休。最为典型的有两只股票,一只是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">中国平安</a>,另一只是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">格力电器</a>。虽然<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01398\">工商银行</a>也不给力,但好歹股价挂得住。这两只把投资者跌到心理崩溃。</p>\n<p>说实话,当初爱的多深,现在就有多迷茫。</p>\n<p>当然,还有不少人在坚守,他们坚信总有天亮的那一刻。这种精神固然让人敬佩,但我们还是应该搞清楚——<i><b>反转的条件是什么</b></i>。</p>\n<h3><b>银行股低pe的本质</b></h3>\n<p>为了搞清楚反转的条件,我们需要先弄清楚银行股低pe的本质。</p>\n<p>很多人会讲,银行股pe低的主要原因是<i><b>它们的利润增速低</b></i>。这种说法有一定道理,但很不全面。有关这个解释,不少新手会说,我能接受利润增速低,少赚一些也很好啊。所以,他们会源源不断地飞蛾扑火。</p>\n<p>事实上,之所以银行股PE低,是因为<i><b>其业务模式承担了特别高的风险</b></i>。</p>\n<p>银行业务模式是一个重资产+高杠杆的业务模式,这种业务模式风险很高。举个例子,银行持有100元的资产,收取票息5%,负债加运营成本是3%,息差是2%。这100元每年能赚2元。也就是说,靠息差需要50年才能把本金赚回来,但是,<i><b>只要客户违约,本金全没了</b></i>。</p>\n<p>因此,对于银行业来说,它的景气框架更加复杂,至少是三阶的:<i><b>估值、利润增速和资产质量</b></i>。如下图所示:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db78749be788b731c2d1e4044416483f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在前文《从醉酒现象看景气追逐和景气周期》中,我们把景气分析拆成两个维度,估值和利润增速。估值和利润增速二者的地位并不是对等的,利润增速的优先级更高,<i><b>即投资者被利润增速所驱动,估值则是一个不太好用的刹车</b></i>。</p>\n<p>银行股的分析还需要加入一个优先级更高的维度——<i><b>资产质量</b></i>,资产质量相对于利润增速的地位也是<i><b>碾压式</b></i>的。</p>\n<p>不难发现,在这个三层体系里,资产质量是个<i><b>扣分项</b></i>,资产质量再好,银行股的估值也只能勉强接近普通的轻资产行业。所以,银行股的pe一般都很低,<i><b>资产质量越被不信任的银行,pe越低</b></i>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b><i>同样是赚到一块钱,贵不贵并不是看pe,看的是业务模式,是你怎么赚的这一块钱,是承担很小的风险,还是承担巨大风险。</i></b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>现实真的有些吊诡,不少散户是基于低pe买的银行股,结果银行股的景气分析却是最难。</p>\n<h3><b>不太容易的景气分析</b></h3>\n<p>为什么银行股的景气分析十分困难?因为你除了要观察利润增速变化(<i>供需分析</i>),还要跟踪各种行业的行业政策和行业景气度——<i><b>它们的景气度状况会影响资产质量</b></i>。</p>\n<p>所以,银行业想要获得一波景气十分艰难,条件太难凑齐了——你既要自身的利润状况好,还要其他行业别出幺蛾子。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>也就是说,只有与之相关性大的行业都好了,银行股才有可能获得一波景气。</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>对银行板块来说,今年最大的拖累项是地产行业。对于地产行业,银行的风险敞口是两块,一块是按揭贷款,融资主体是居民;<i><b>另一块是开发贷款,融资主体是房地产商。</b></i></p>\n<p>今年出问题的是后者。1月1日以来,<i><b>房地产融资的“三条红线”政策</b></i>开始执行,很多地产商开始出现去杠杆,房地产商的信用问题频发。于是,银行的资产质量承压,估值往下掉。</p>\n<p>不少人会问,既然按揭贷款没出问题,只是开发贷款的问题,为什么不是开发贷款多的银行跌,而是,所有的银行都在跌?<i><b>这是因为按揭贷款和开发贷款是捆绑在一块的,是一个闭环</b></i>。对于一个地产项目,一家银行不可能只做它的按揭贷款(<i>只挑低风险的做</i>),而不做它的开发贷款(<i>风险让别的银行承担</i>)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/189cc15c56f04ddbccac83a03671fe23\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如上图所示,按揭贷款放得越多,开发商才有钱把开发贷还掉;<i><b>银行资产端的信用风险主体才会由开发商变成居民。</b></i></p>\n<p>这种机制会导致一个特别有趣的现象:<i><b>银行的资产质量跟信贷周期捆绑在一块</b></i>,信贷松尤其是房贷松,银行的资产质量预期提高;反之,下滑。</p>\n<p>但是,如果信贷太松,房价又可能过快上涨,这与<i><b>房住不炒和共同富裕</b></i>是相背离的。正是因为这种种纠葛,才导致了市场很难去把控银行股景气度的变化。</p>\n<h3><b>曲折的走势</b></h3>\n<p>事实上,今年以来银行板块的走势相当混乱。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4411f93868cbac029d85a8ce57f3c6a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>一、2020年12月,三条红线政策落地,板块基于预期先跌了一波;</p>\n<p>二、2021年1月,信贷脉冲,导致市场预期出现反复,开始低估政策影响——觉得影响似乎不大;</p>\n<p>三、2月至3月,零星的信用问题开始显现;</p>\n<p>四、6月至7月,二季报不及预期、pmi下滑、信用问题恶化,导致板块大幅下挫;</p>\n<p>五、市场反复基于政策预期扰动,尽管q3业绩还不错。</p>\n<p>之所以走势这么乱,主要还是因为影响银行板块的因素太多:1、关键行业的政策预期;2、自身的业绩增速;3、整个经济的景气度pmi。</p>\n<p>即便到现在,信贷政策已经出现了一定的松动,市场也很难就以上三个问题达成共识。</p>\n<h3><b>低pe投资的本质</b></h3>\n<p>搞清楚银行低pe的本质以及其景气分析框架之后,就不难理解低pe投资的本质到底是什么了。</p>\n<p>低pe实际上是一种<i><b>筛选</b></i>,往往会筛选出“重资产+高杠杆”的业务模式(<i>另一种情况是强周期股的周期顶点</i>),<i><b>因为重资产+高杠杆是需要风险补偿的,需要很低的pe</b></i>,只有在信贷比较宽松的情况下,这种补偿才可能是低的。</p>\n<p>在国内,与地产相关的行业——银行、地产、建筑等都具备类似的特征,所以,如果你按照低pe来筛选,很大一部分都是地产产业链。</p>\n<p>如果你笃信<i><b>深度价值投资——</b></i>投资低pe和低pb,那么,你实际上投的并不是价值,而是<i><b>地产周期和信贷周期</b></i>。</p>\n<p>表面上看<i><b>深度价值投资或捡烟蒂策略</b></i>似乎是一种普适的投资理念,实际上,它所适应的是特殊的行业和特定的历史阶段。</p>\n<p>因此,与其说2017年是低pe策略的成功,不如说是地产产业链投资的成功。那一年最大的关键词是<i><b>棚改货币化</b></i>。借着一波产业红利,恒大从4元附近涨到了最高的27.4元。</p>\n<p>2020年初疫情爆发,信贷短暂的宽松,让恒大的重资产模式回光返照了一下,最高股价再度接近27元。但是,2021年初的三条红线让一切都画上了休止符。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/166dc3d2da5e3167588b5514b2c12624\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<h3><b>资产风险和非对称性</b></h3>\n<p>事实上,低pe的企业还很多,这些企业往往都是三层景气架构的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cd7ed45be9b48a422701ab61a20901\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>低pe投资最大的错误在于,<i><b>认为估值和资产风险是在一个平面上</b></i>。他们运用了一个很蹩脚的比喻——<i><b>弥补,低估值可以弥补资产风险。</b></i></p>\n<p>弥补这个比喻需要一个前提条件——资产端的某种可逆性。但是,重资产行业的资产端往往不具备这种可逆性。</p>\n<p><i><b>行业可以具备可逆性,但这种可逆性不会传递到企业。</b></i></p>\n<p>以银行为例,如果某个行业遭遇危机,一批企业倒闭,他所持有的那部分债券归零;即便这个行业重新恢复,新的企业崛起,这也跟银行没什么关系,<i><b>这些企业不会帮倒闭的企业偿还债务</b></i>。</p>\n<p>对银行业来说,<i><b>微观和中观是割裂的,这会导致一种非对称性</b></i>,每次行业下行周期,银行会损失一些;但在行业上升周期,银行没法把这些损失捞回来。因此,银行资产端所承受的风险,并不是一个对称的行业波动风险,而是一个非对称风险——<i><b>行业景气向下越久越大,死的企业越多,银行亏得越多</b></i>。</p>\n<p>总的来说,银行的资产端是大量的微观企业的债券,会遭遇相当大的非对称性。所以,银行十分惧怕经常性大的行业周期波动。这种波动越大越多,银行遭遇的资产风险越大。</p>\n<p>实际上,资产风险比估值高了两阶,非对称性又凌驾在资产风险之上。只有较高的业绩增速(<i>ps:靠高利率</i>),才有可能<i><b>缓释</b></i>非对称性。</p>\n<p>低估值只是企业承担资产风险的结果。当资产质量开始恶化,估值只是被动地<i><b>看起来</b></i>越来越低,仅此而已。当资产质量好转,很多银行的估值也回不到初始状态了,因为<i><b>违约的企业已经倒闭了</b></i>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3d141836eef3ab6809696521c85c53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如上图所示,真正压制估值的原因有三个:1、重资产;2、高杠杆;3、非对称性。</p>\n<p>事实上,最重要的是<i><b>非对称性</b></i>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503234a8a5fbd61b23d3bf3724ef9139\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>理解清楚非对称性之后,就能理解清楚以下两个问题:1、为什么银行的pb一直在掉;2、为什么银行老需要补充资本。</p>\n<p>除了银行和地产之外,保险和券商也是高杠杆+重资产的。除了金融行业以外,好多重资产公司也有非对称的问题,非对称的问题有高有低。</p>\n<h3><b>结束语</b></h3>\n<p>坦率的说,银行股(<i>或者说重资产行业</i>)是极难研究的一类标的,他的景气框架实际上是四阶的:<i><b>估值、利润增速、资产质量、非对称性</b></i>。</p>\n<p>但是,因为各种各样的原因,普通投资者也好,资深投资者也罢,总是被估值和分红迷惑(<i>或许是DCF模型深入人心吧</i>)。</p>\n<p>他们总是以为估值或分红能解决什么问题,实际上,并不能。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>估值只是一个结果,就像你喝多了酒会晕一样。</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>基于低估值去抄底,有一个很核心的条件:<i><b>那就是对称性</b></i>。</p>\n<p>显然想清楚一个行业的业务模式和景气框架结构是困难的。所以,最可怕的还是那句话,(无脑地)价值投资,长期持有。</p>\n<p>如上面的案例所展示的,在低利润增速+非对称性之下,长期持有的结果是灾难性的。</p>\n<p>为了避免踩坑,还是要提醒大家以下几点:</p>\n<p><i><b>1、市场是有效的,即便短期无效,拉长了时间看一定有效;</b></i></p>\n<p><i><b>2、不要基于便宜去抄底;</b></i></p>\n<p><i><b>3、如果你要跟市场对着干,一定要确认你比市场上99%的人水平高;</b></i></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>价值投资中的陷阱</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n价值投资中的陷阱\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-22 10:29 北京时间 <a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/497217><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>引子\n每隔一段时间,市场就会跑出一群价值投资者。这个周期或长或短,上一次大概是在2017年的时候,那时候,人们言必称价值。\n那么,什么是价值投资者呢?关于这一点,并没有一个特别清晰的定义。人人都自诩价值投资,即便是赛道投资者也是——人家投资的是未来的价值。\n但是,如果我们把价值投资的定义收窄到投资低PE或低PB的股票,这个定义就很清晰了。\n2017年是此类策略的高光时刻。以工商银行(代表低PE)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/497217\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"601398":"工商银行","01398":"工商银行"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/497217","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2185826580","content_text":"引子\n每隔一段时间,市场就会跑出一群价值投资者。这个周期或长或短,上一次大概是在2017年的时候,那时候,人们言必称价值。\n那么,什么是价值投资者呢?关于这一点,并没有一个特别清晰的定义。人人都自诩价值投资,即便是赛道投资者也是——人家投资的是未来的价值。\n但是,如果我们把价值投资的定义收窄到投资低PE或低PB的股票,这个定义就很清晰了。\n2017年是此类策略的高光时刻。以工商银行(代表低PE)为例,在2016年-2017年,它的股价从低点的3.16上涨至高点的6.42 。\n\n巴菲特是很多人心目中的偶像,很多投资在初入这个市场的时候,都或多或少地会受一种思想的蛊惑——要买的足够便宜。之所以如此,大概有4点原因:\n1、我们都想买的便宜;\n2、我们喜欢实实在在的东西——分红;\n3、我们都认为自己很聪明,有一双闪闪发光的大眼睛;\n4、有人成功过;\n理解清楚了这个渊源,就不难理解为什么中国平安里有那么多散户,也不难理解为什么很多人以银行股入坑。\n至暗时刻\n2018年市场进入了全面熊市,所有策略都不怎么样。\n进入2019年之后,市场出现了分化。成长类的股票一骑绝尘,简单粗暴地总结,PE高的越来越高,高得有些离谱。\n如果仅仅是别人涨自己不涨倒罢了,很多老白马股开始跌跌不休。最为典型的有两只股票,一只是中国平安,另一只是格力电器。虽然工商银行也不给力,但好歹股价挂得住。这两只把投资者跌到心理崩溃。\n说实话,当初爱的多深,现在就有多迷茫。\n当然,还有不少人在坚守,他们坚信总有天亮的那一刻。这种精神固然让人敬佩,但我们还是应该搞清楚——反转的条件是什么。\n银行股低pe的本质\n为了搞清楚反转的条件,我们需要先弄清楚银行股低pe的本质。\n很多人会讲,银行股pe低的主要原因是它们的利润增速低。这种说法有一定道理,但很不全面。有关这个解释,不少新手会说,我能接受利润增速低,少赚一些也很好啊。所以,他们会源源不断地飞蛾扑火。\n事实上,之所以银行股PE低,是因为其业务模式承担了特别高的风险。\n银行业务模式是一个重资产+高杠杆的业务模式,这种业务模式风险很高。举个例子,银行持有100元的资产,收取票息5%,负债加运营成本是3%,息差是2%。这100元每年能赚2元。也就是说,靠息差需要50年才能把本金赚回来,但是,只要客户违约,本金全没了。\n因此,对于银行业来说,它的景气框架更加复杂,至少是三阶的:估值、利润增速和资产质量。如下图所示:\n\n在前文《从醉酒现象看景气追逐和景气周期》中,我们把景气分析拆成两个维度,估值和利润增速。估值和利润增速二者的地位并不是对等的,利润增速的优先级更高,即投资者被利润增速所驱动,估值则是一个不太好用的刹车。\n银行股的分析还需要加入一个优先级更高的维度——资产质量,资产质量相对于利润增速的地位也是碾压式的。\n不难发现,在这个三层体系里,资产质量是个扣分项,资产质量再好,银行股的估值也只能勉强接近普通的轻资产行业。所以,银行股的pe一般都很低,资产质量越被不信任的银行,pe越低。\n\n同样是赚到一块钱,贵不贵并不是看pe,看的是业务模式,是你怎么赚的这一块钱,是承担很小的风险,还是承担巨大风险。\n\n现实真的有些吊诡,不少散户是基于低pe买的银行股,结果银行股的景气分析却是最难。\n不太容易的景气分析\n为什么银行股的景气分析十分困难?因为你除了要观察利润增速变化(供需分析),还要跟踪各种行业的行业政策和行业景气度——它们的景气度状况会影响资产质量。\n所以,银行业想要获得一波景气十分艰难,条件太难凑齐了——你既要自身的利润状况好,还要其他行业别出幺蛾子。\n\n也就是说,只有与之相关性大的行业都好了,银行股才有可能获得一波景气。\n\n对银行板块来说,今年最大的拖累项是地产行业。对于地产行业,银行的风险敞口是两块,一块是按揭贷款,融资主体是居民;另一块是开发贷款,融资主体是房地产商。\n今年出问题的是后者。1月1日以来,房地产融资的“三条红线”政策开始执行,很多地产商开始出现去杠杆,房地产商的信用问题频发。于是,银行的资产质量承压,估值往下掉。\n不少人会问,既然按揭贷款没出问题,只是开发贷款的问题,为什么不是开发贷款多的银行跌,而是,所有的银行都在跌?这是因为按揭贷款和开发贷款是捆绑在一块的,是一个闭环。对于一个地产项目,一家银行不可能只做它的按揭贷款(只挑低风险的做),而不做它的开发贷款(风险让别的银行承担)。\n\n如上图所示,按揭贷款放得越多,开发商才有钱把开发贷还掉;银行资产端的信用风险主体才会由开发商变成居民。\n这种机制会导致一个特别有趣的现象:银行的资产质量跟信贷周期捆绑在一块,信贷松尤其是房贷松,银行的资产质量预期提高;反之,下滑。\n但是,如果信贷太松,房价又可能过快上涨,这与房住不炒和共同富裕是相背离的。正是因为这种种纠葛,才导致了市场很难去把控银行股景气度的变化。\n曲折的走势\n事实上,今年以来银行板块的走势相当混乱。\n\n一、2020年12月,三条红线政策落地,板块基于预期先跌了一波;\n二、2021年1月,信贷脉冲,导致市场预期出现反复,开始低估政策影响——觉得影响似乎不大;\n三、2月至3月,零星的信用问题开始显现;\n四、6月至7月,二季报不及预期、pmi下滑、信用问题恶化,导致板块大幅下挫;\n五、市场反复基于政策预期扰动,尽管q3业绩还不错。\n之所以走势这么乱,主要还是因为影响银行板块的因素太多:1、关键行业的政策预期;2、自身的业绩增速;3、整个经济的景气度pmi。\n即便到现在,信贷政策已经出现了一定的松动,市场也很难就以上三个问题达成共识。\n低pe投资的本质\n搞清楚银行低pe的本质以及其景气分析框架之后,就不难理解低pe投资的本质到底是什么了。\n低pe实际上是一种筛选,往往会筛选出“重资产+高杠杆”的业务模式(另一种情况是强周期股的周期顶点),因为重资产+高杠杆是需要风险补偿的,需要很低的pe,只有在信贷比较宽松的情况下,这种补偿才可能是低的。\n在国内,与地产相关的行业——银行、地产、建筑等都具备类似的特征,所以,如果你按照低pe来筛选,很大一部分都是地产产业链。\n如果你笃信深度价值投资——投资低pe和低pb,那么,你实际上投的并不是价值,而是地产周期和信贷周期。\n表面上看深度价值投资或捡烟蒂策略似乎是一种普适的投资理念,实际上,它所适应的是特殊的行业和特定的历史阶段。\n因此,与其说2017年是低pe策略的成功,不如说是地产产业链投资的成功。那一年最大的关键词是棚改货币化。借着一波产业红利,恒大从4元附近涨到了最高的27.4元。\n2020年初疫情爆发,信贷短暂的宽松,让恒大的重资产模式回光返照了一下,最高股价再度接近27元。但是,2021年初的三条红线让一切都画上了休止符。\n\n资产风险和非对称性\n事实上,低pe的企业还很多,这些企业往往都是三层景气架构的。\n\n低pe投资最大的错误在于,认为估值和资产风险是在一个平面上。他们运用了一个很蹩脚的比喻——弥补,低估值可以弥补资产风险。\n弥补这个比喻需要一个前提条件——资产端的某种可逆性。但是,重资产行业的资产端往往不具备这种可逆性。\n行业可以具备可逆性,但这种可逆性不会传递到企业。\n以银行为例,如果某个行业遭遇危机,一批企业倒闭,他所持有的那部分债券归零;即便这个行业重新恢复,新的企业崛起,这也跟银行没什么关系,这些企业不会帮倒闭的企业偿还债务。\n对银行业来说,微观和中观是割裂的,这会导致一种非对称性,每次行业下行周期,银行会损失一些;但在行业上升周期,银行没法把这些损失捞回来。因此,银行资产端所承受的风险,并不是一个对称的行业波动风险,而是一个非对称风险——行业景气向下越久越大,死的企业越多,银行亏得越多。\n总的来说,银行的资产端是大量的微观企业的债券,会遭遇相当大的非对称性。所以,银行十分惧怕经常性大的行业周期波动。这种波动越大越多,银行遭遇的资产风险越大。\n实际上,资产风险比估值高了两阶,非对称性又凌驾在资产风险之上。只有较高的业绩增速(ps:靠高利率),才有可能缓释非对称性。\n低估值只是企业承担资产风险的结果。当资产质量开始恶化,估值只是被动地看起来越来越低,仅此而已。当资产质量好转,很多银行的估值也回不到初始状态了,因为违约的企业已经倒闭了。\n\n如上图所示,真正压制估值的原因有三个:1、重资产;2、高杠杆;3、非对称性。\n事实上,最重要的是非对称性。\n\n理解清楚非对称性之后,就能理解清楚以下两个问题:1、为什么银行的pb一直在掉;2、为什么银行老需要补充资本。\n除了银行和地产之外,保险和券商也是高杠杆+重资产的。除了金融行业以外,好多重资产公司也有非对称的问题,非对称的问题有高有低。\n结束语\n坦率的说,银行股(或者说重资产行业)是极难研究的一类标的,他的景气框架实际上是四阶的:估值、利润增速、资产质量、非对称性。\n但是,因为各种各样的原因,普通投资者也好,资深投资者也罢,总是被估值和分红迷惑(或许是DCF模型深入人心吧)。\n他们总是以为估值或分红能解决什么问题,实际上,并不能。\n\n估值只是一个结果,就像你喝多了酒会晕一样。\n\n基于低估值去抄底,有一个很核心的条件:那就是对称性。\n显然想清楚一个行业的业务模式和景气框架结构是困难的。所以,最可怕的还是那句话,(无脑地)价值投资,长期持有。\n如上面的案例所展示的,在低利润增速+非对称性之下,长期持有的结果是灾难性的。\n为了避免踩坑,还是要提醒大家以下几点:\n1、市场是有效的,即便短期无效,拉长了时间看一定有效;\n2、不要基于便宜去抄底;\n3、如果你要跟市场对着干,一定要确认你比市场上99%的人水平高;","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847757496,"gmtCreate":1636555762831,"gmtModify":1636556411772,"author":{"id":"3576646113789799","authorId":"3576646113789799","name":"面如冠玉的泰格","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e00d39b41f5fcfc59c667f0b8acbfd6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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