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面如冠玉的泰格

面如冠玉的泰格

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面如冠玉的泰格

2022-03-04

$洛阳玻璃股份(01108)$神奇了逆势涨

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-12-17

$中国电力(02380)$日内波动贼大

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-12-17

$腾讯控股(00700)$435见

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-12-17

$中国神华(01088)$洗啊洗等着了

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-12-17

$比亚迪股份(01211)$262的阻力还挺大

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-12-17

$中芯国际(00981)$下跌中的反弹

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-12-15

$华能国际电力股份(00902)$买在山顶我的妈

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-11-30

传说他是去搞币了

老虎点评：推特CEO辞职，说明不看好元宇宙？

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-11-22

[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]

价值投资中的陷阱

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-11-10

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$牛逼

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-11-10

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$差口气

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-11-08

$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$醒醒啊

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-10-27

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$[喷血]

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-10-22

$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$$Phunware, Inc.(PHUN)$参与一下历史不敢下重手啊…

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-10-21

$马拉松石油(MRO)$醒醒油价新高了

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-10-14

$西方石油(OXY)$跟跌不跟涨

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-10-14

$马拉松石油(MRO)$醒醒啊

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-10-13

$西方石油(OXY)$期货都转涨了这货还没睡醒

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-10-07

$联合大陆航空(UAL)$醒醒啊大哥

面如冠玉的泰格

2021-10-06

$默沙东(MRK)$看来市场不太买账啊…

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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10:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎点评：推特CEO辞职，说明不看好元宇宙？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162094402","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Dorsey辞去Twitter CEO一职成为除了Omicron变种之外，被讨论的最多的事情。","content":"<p>美股反弹，疫苗股大涨（Moderna +10%），中概股继续低迷，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>创52周新低。交易量一直低迷的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>筹明日季报前交易量暴增10倍，股价涨10%。</p>\n<p><b>Jack Dorsey辞去<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> CEO</b></p>\n<p>感恩节后的资本市场相对安静，Dorsey辞去Twitter CEO一职成为除了Omicron变种之外，被讨论的最多的事情。Twitter的股价在这个新闻出来的时候先是跳涨5%，但随后就一路下跌收盘跌2%（纳斯达克今日涨1.85）。尽管Elliott Management一直在推动Dorsey离开推特，但是很显然，资本市场并不认为Dorsey的离开是件好事情。</p>\n<p>Dorsey担任两家公司的CEO，Twitter和Square。以今天收盘计算，Square的市值$980亿，推特的市值$360亿。从过去5年的股价表现来看，Square（蓝色）更是大幅超越了Twitter（橙色）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f3af5dce8510a7e2ca3ef4b23aa4ecd\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>辞去了Twitter一职，Dorsey可以全身心投入到加密货币中去，<b>放弃Twitter也代表Dorsey并不太相信社交网络和元宇宙的结合</b>。尽管没有公开对元宇宙表态，但是Dorsey对Zuckerberg拥抱元宇宙，嗤之以鼻。</p>\n<p>接替Dorsey一职的人叫Parag Agrawal，让人惊叹，有一个硅谷科技公司被印度人/印裔接管。尽管印度人在硅谷搞初创公司的不多，但大的科技公司找接任者的时候，印度人/印裔经常是首选。华裔留美精英们呢？</p>\n<p><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><b>Hertz租车(HTZ)：宣布$20亿股票回购计划。&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b>Twitter(TWTR)：宣布CEO多西离职，CTO Agrawal将成为继任者。</b>多西将继续留任董事，直至2022年任期届满。Twitter维持财务指引不变。<b>&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b>Meta(FB)：将变更股票代码的时间推后至2022年1季度。&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>(PFE)：预计新冠药物Paxlovid的疗程可达8,000万，高于此前预计的5,000万。&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b>诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX)：重申计划年底在美国提交新冠疫苗的申请，今日跌11%。</b>此前一家律师事务所针对该公司提起集体诉讼，称其对公司业务、运营和前景作出遗漏和欺诈性虚假陈述。<b>&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPI\">阳光动力</a>(SPI)：旗下电动车制造商Phoenix Motors在美国申请IPO。</b>该公司成立于2003年，2009年推出手套电动传动系统，2014年发布首辆商用电动巴士。<b>&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>(EDU)：宣布进一步回购债券。</b>截至2021年11月29日，公司回购本金总额$1.115亿，约占债券初始本金的37.2%。</p>\n<p><b>其它</b></p>\n<p>全球累计确诊261,978,819例，累计死亡5,205,121例。美国确诊48,375,997例，死亡777,745例。纽约州目前确诊2,718,713例，死亡57,442例。</p>\n<p>鲍威尔：Omicron加重美国经济风险和通胀不确定性。</p>\n<p>拜登将于周三讲话，讨论经济和供应链问题。拜登今日在白宫会见了零售商高管。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎点评：推特CEO辞职，说明不看好元宇宙？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎点评：推特CEO辞职，说明不看好元宇宙？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-30 10:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>美股反弹，疫苗股大涨（Moderna +10%），中概股继续低迷，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>创52周新低。交易量一直低迷的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>筹明日季报前交易量暴增10倍，股价涨10%。</p>\n<p><b>Jack Dorsey辞去<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> CEO</b></p>\n<p>感恩节后的资本市场相对安静，Dorsey辞去Twitter CEO一职成为除了Omicron变种之外，被讨论的最多的事情。Twitter的股价在这个新闻出来的时候先是跳涨5%，但随后就一路下跌收盘跌2%（纳斯达克今日涨1.85）。尽管Elliott Management一直在推动Dorsey离开推特，但是很显然，资本市场并不认为Dorsey的离开是件好事情。</p>\n<p>Dorsey担任两家公司的CEO，Twitter和Square。以今天收盘计算，Square的市值$980亿，推特的市值$360亿。从过去5年的股价表现来看，Square（蓝色）更是大幅超越了Twitter（橙色）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f3af5dce8510a7e2ca3ef4b23aa4ecd\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>辞去了Twitter一职，Dorsey可以全身心投入到加密货币中去，<b>放弃Twitter也代表Dorsey并不太相信社交网络和元宇宙的结合</b>。尽管没有公开对元宇宙表态，但是Dorsey对Zuckerberg拥抱元宇宙，嗤之以鼻。</p>\n<p>接替Dorsey一职的人叫Parag Agrawal，让人惊叹，有一个硅谷科技公司被印度人/印裔接管。尽管印度人在硅谷搞初创公司的不多，但大的科技公司找接任者的时候，印度人/印裔经常是首选。华裔留美精英们呢？</p>\n<p><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><b>Hertz租车(HTZ)：宣布$20亿股票回购计划。&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b>Twitter(TWTR)：宣布CEO多西离职，CTO Agrawal将成为继任者。</b>多西将继续留任董事，直至2022年任期届满。Twitter维持财务指引不变。<b>&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b>Meta(FB)：将变更股票代码的时间推后至2022年1季度。&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>(PFE)：预计新冠药物Paxlovid的疗程可达8,000万，高于此前预计的5,000万。&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b>诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX)：重申计划年底在美国提交新冠疫苗的申请，今日跌11%。</b>此前一家律师事务所针对该公司提起集体诉讼，称其对公司业务、运营和前景作出遗漏和欺诈性虚假陈述。<b>&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPI\">阳光动力</a>(SPI)：旗下电动车制造商Phoenix Motors在美国申请IPO。</b>该公司成立于2003年，2009年推出手套电动传动系统，2014年发布首辆商用电动巴士。<b>&nbsp;</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>(EDU)：宣布进一步回购债券。</b>截至2021年11月29日，公司回购本金总额$1.115亿，约占债券初始本金的37.2%。</p>\n<p><b>其它</b></p>\n<p>全球累计确诊261,978,819例，累计死亡5,205,121例。美国确诊48,375,997例，死亡777,745例。纽约州目前确诊2,718,713例，死亡57,442例。</p>\n<p>鲍威尔：Omicron加重美国经济风险和通胀不确定性。</p>\n<p>拜登将于周三讲话，讨论经济和供应链问题。拜登今日在白宫会见了零售商高管。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162094402","content_text":"美股反弹，疫苗股大涨（Moderna +10%），中概股继续低迷，阿里巴巴创52周新低。交易量一直低迷的水滴筹明日季报前交易量暴增10倍，股价涨10%。\nJack Dorsey辞去Twitter CEO\n感恩节后的资本市场相对安静，Dorsey辞去Twitter CEO一职成为除了Omicron变种之外，被讨论的最多的事情。Twitter的股价在这个新闻出来的时候先是跳涨5%，但随后就一路下跌收盘跌2%（纳斯达克今日涨1.85）。尽管Elliott Management一直在推动Dorsey离开推特，但是很显然，资本市场并不认为Dorsey的离开是件好事情。\nDorsey担任两家公司的CEO，Twitter和Square。以今天收盘计算，Square的市值$980亿，推特的市值$360亿。从过去5年的股价表现来看，Square（蓝色）更是大幅超越了Twitter（橙色）。\n\n辞去了Twitter一职，Dorsey可以全身心投入到加密货币中去，放弃Twitter也代表Dorsey并不太相信社交网络和元宇宙的结合。尽管没有公开对元宇宙表态，但是Dorsey对Zuckerberg拥抱元宇宙，嗤之以鼻。\n接替Dorsey一职的人叫Parag Agrawal，让人惊叹，有一个硅谷科技公司被印度人/印裔接管。尽管印度人在硅谷搞初创公司的不多，但大的科技公司找接任者的时候，印度人/印裔经常是首选。华裔留美精英们呢？\n公司新闻\nHertz租车(HTZ)：宣布$20亿股票回购计划。 \nTwitter(TWTR)：宣布CEO多西离职，CTO Agrawal将成为继任者。多西将继续留任董事，直至2022年任期届满。Twitter维持财务指引不变。 \nMeta(FB)：将变更股票代码的时间推后至2022年1季度。 \n辉瑞(PFE)：预计新冠药物Paxlovid的疗程可达8,000万，高于此前预计的5,000万。 \n诺瓦瓦克斯(NVAX)：重申计划年底在美国提交新冠疫苗的申请，今日跌11%。此前一家律师事务所针对该公司提起集体诉讼，称其对公司业务、运营和前景作出遗漏和欺诈性虚假陈述。 \n阳光动力(SPI)：旗下电动车制造商Phoenix Motors在美国申请IPO。该公司成立于2003年，2009年推出手套电动传动系统，2014年发布首辆商用电动巴士。 \n新东方(EDU)：宣布进一步回购债券。截至2021年11月29日，公司回购本金总额$1.115亿，约占债券初始本金的37.2%。\n其它\n全球累计确诊261,978,819例，累计死亡5,205,121例。美国确诊48,375,997例，死亡777,745例。纽约州目前确诊2,718,713例，死亡57,442例。\n鲍威尔：Omicron加重美国经济风险和通胀不确定性。\n拜登将于周三讲话，讨论经济和供应链问题。拜登今日在白宫会见了零售商高管。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872487625,"gmtCreate":1637561019274,"gmtModify":1637561019274,"author":{"id":"3576646113789799","authorId":"3576646113789799","name":"面如冠玉的泰格","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e00d39b41f5fcfc59c667f0b8acbfd6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;[贱笑]&nbsp;","text":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872487625","repostId":"2185826580","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2185826580","pubTimestamp":1637548183,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2185826580?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 10:29","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"价值投资中的陷阱","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2185826580","media":"格隆汇","summary":"引子\n每隔一段时间，市场就会跑出一群价值投资者。这个周期或长或短，上一次大概是在2017年的时候，那时候，人们言必称价值。\n那么，什么是价值投资者呢？关于这一点，并没有一个特别清晰的定义。人人都自诩价","content":"<p><b>引子</b></p>\n<p>每隔一段时间，市场就会跑出一群价值投资者。这个周期或长或短，上一次大概是在2017年的时候，那时候，人们言必称价值。</p>\n<p>那么，什么是价值投资者呢？关于这一点，并没有一个特别清晰的定义。人人都自诩价值投资，即便是<i><b>赛道投资者也是</b></i>——人家投资的是未来的价值。</p>\n<p>但是，如果我们把价值投资的定义收窄到<i><b>投资低PE或低PB的股票</b></i>，这个定义就很清晰了。</p>\n<p><i><b>2017年是此类策略的高光时刻。</b></i>以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">工商银行</a>（<i>代表低PE</i>）为例，在2016年-2017年，它的股价从低点的3.16上涨至高点的6.42 。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73b97ea1e5940890eb5fb76b588bf640\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>巴菲特是很多人心目中的偶像，很多投资在初入这个市场的时候，都或多或少地会受一种思想的蛊惑——<i><b>要买的足够便宜</b></i>。之所以如此，大概有4点原因：</p>\n<p><i><b>1、我们都想买的便宜；</b></i></p>\n<p><i><b>2、我们喜欢实实在在的东西——分红；</b></i></p>\n<p><i><b>3、我们都认为自己很聪明，有一双闪闪发光的大眼睛；</b></i></p>\n<p><i><b>4、有人成功过；</b></i></p>\n<p>理解清楚了这个渊源，就不难理解为什么<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">中国平安</a>里有那么多散户，也不难理解为什么很多人以银行股入坑。</p>\n<h3><b>至暗时刻</b></h3>\n<p>2018年市场进入了全面熊市，所有策略都不怎么样。</p>\n<p>进入2019年之后，市场出现了分化。成长类的股票一骑绝尘，简单粗暴地总结，PE高的越来越高，高得有些离谱。</p>\n<p>如果仅仅是别人涨自己不涨倒罢了，<i><b>很多老白马股</b></i>开始跌跌不休。最为典型的有两只股票，一只是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02318\">中国平安</a>，另一只是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000651\">格力电器</a>。虽然<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01398\">工商银行</a>也不给力，但好歹股价挂得住。这两只把投资者跌到心理崩溃。</p>\n<p>说实话，当初爱的多深，现在就有多迷茫。</p>\n<p>当然，还有不少人在坚守，他们坚信总有天亮的那一刻。这种精神固然让人敬佩，但我们还是应该搞清楚——<i><b>反转的条件是什么</b></i>。</p>\n<h3><b>银行股低pe的本质</b></h3>\n<p>为了搞清楚反转的条件，我们需要先弄清楚银行股低pe的本质。</p>\n<p>很多人会讲，银行股pe低的主要原因是<i><b>它们的利润增速低</b></i>。这种说法有一定道理，但很不全面。有关这个解释，不少新手会说，我能接受利润增速低，少赚一些也很好啊。所以，他们会源源不断地飞蛾扑火。</p>\n<p>事实上，之所以银行股PE低，是因为<i><b>其业务模式承担了特别高的风险</b></i>。</p>\n<p>银行业务模式是一个重资产+高杠杆的业务模式，这种业务模式风险很高。举个例子，银行持有100元的资产，收取票息5%，负债加运营成本是3%，息差是2%。这100元每年能赚2元。也就是说，靠息差需要50年才能把本金赚回来，但是，<i><b>只要客户违约，本金全没了</b></i>。</p>\n<p>因此，对于银行业来说，它的景气框架更加复杂，至少是三阶的：<i><b>估值、利润增速和资产质量</b></i>。如下图所示：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db78749be788b731c2d1e4044416483f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在前文《从醉酒现象看景气追逐和景气周期》中，我们把景气分析拆成两个维度，估值和利润增速。估值和利润增速二者的地位并不是对等的，利润增速的优先级更高，<i><b>即投资者被利润增速所驱动，估值则是一个不太好用的刹车</b></i>。</p>\n<p>银行股的分析还需要加入一个优先级更高的维度——<i><b>资产质量</b></i>，资产质量相对于利润增速的地位也是<i><b>碾压式</b></i>的。</p>\n<p>不难发现，在这个三层体系里，资产质量是个<i><b>扣分项</b></i>，资产质量再好，银行股的估值也只能勉强接近普通的轻资产行业。所以，银行股的pe一般都很低，<i><b>资产质量越被不信任的银行，pe越低</b></i>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b><i>同样是赚到一块钱，贵不贵并不是看pe，看的是业务模式，是你怎么赚的这一块钱，是承担很小的风险，还是承担巨大风险。</i></b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>现实真的有些吊诡，不少散户是基于低pe买的银行股，结果银行股的景气分析却是最难。</p>\n<h3><b>不太容易的景气分析</b></h3>\n<p>为什么银行股的景气分析十分困难？因为你除了要观察利润增速变化（<i>供需分析</i>），还要跟踪各种行业的行业政策和行业景气度——<i><b>它们的景气度状况会影响资产质量</b></i>。</p>\n<p>所以，银行业想要获得一波景气十分艰难，条件太难凑齐了——你既要自身的利润状况好，还要其他行业别出幺蛾子。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>也就是说，只有与之相关性大的行业都好了，银行股才有可能获得一波景气。</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>对银行板块来说，今年最大的拖累项是地产行业。对于地产行业，银行的风险敞口是两块，一块是按揭贷款，融资主体是居民；<i><b>另一块是开发贷款，融资主体是房地产商。</b></i></p>\n<p>今年出问题的是后者。1月1日以来，<i><b>房地产融资的“三条红线”政策</b></i>开始执行，很多地产商开始出现去杠杆，房地产商的信用问题频发。于是，银行的资产质量承压，估值往下掉。</p>\n<p>不少人会问，既然按揭贷款没出问题，只是开发贷款的问题，为什么不是开发贷款多的银行跌，而是，所有的银行都在跌？<i><b>这是因为按揭贷款和开发贷款是捆绑在一块的，是一个闭环</b></i>。对于一个地产项目，一家银行不可能只做它的按揭贷款（<i>只挑低风险的做</i>），而不做它的开发贷款（<i>风险让别的银行承担</i>）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/189cc15c56f04ddbccac83a03671fe23\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如上图所示，按揭贷款放得越多，开发商才有钱把开发贷还掉；<i><b>银行资产端的信用风险主体才会由开发商变成居民。</b></i></p>\n<p>这种机制会导致一个特别有趣的现象：<i><b>银行的资产质量跟信贷周期捆绑在一块</b></i>，信贷松尤其是房贷松，银行的资产质量预期提高；反之，下滑。</p>\n<p>但是，如果信贷太松，房价又可能过快上涨，这与<i><b>房住不炒和共同富裕</b></i>是相背离的。正是因为这种种纠葛，才导致了市场很难去把控银行股景气度的变化。</p>\n<h3><b>曲折的走势</b></h3>\n<p>事实上，今年以来银行板块的走势相当混乱。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4411f93868cbac029d85a8ce57f3c6a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>一、2020年12月，三条红线政策落地，板块基于预期先跌了一波；</p>\n<p>二、2021年1月，信贷脉冲，导致市场预期出现反复，开始低估政策影响——觉得影响似乎不大；</p>\n<p>三、2月至3月，零星的信用问题开始显现；</p>\n<p>四、6月至7月，二季报不及预期、pmi下滑、信用问题恶化，导致板块大幅下挫；</p>\n<p>五、市场反复基于政策预期扰动，尽管q3业绩还不错。</p>\n<p>之所以走势这么乱，主要还是因为影响银行板块的因素太多：1、关键行业的政策预期；2、自身的业绩增速；3、整个经济的景气度pmi。</p>\n<p>即便到现在，信贷政策已经出现了一定的松动，市场也很难就以上三个问题达成共识。</p>\n<h3><b>低pe投资的本质</b></h3>\n<p>搞清楚银行低pe的本质以及其景气分析框架之后，就不难理解低pe投资的本质到底是什么了。</p>\n<p>低pe实际上是一种<i><b>筛选</b></i>，往往会筛选出“重资产+高杠杆”的业务模式（<i>另一种情况是强周期股的周期顶点</i>），<i><b>因为重资产+高杠杆是需要风险补偿的，需要很低的pe</b></i>，只有在信贷比较宽松的情况下，这种补偿才可能是低的。</p>\n<p>在国内，与地产相关的行业——银行、地产、建筑等都具备类似的特征，所以，如果你按照低pe来筛选，很大一部分都是地产产业链。</p>\n<p>如果你笃信<i><b>深度价值投资——</b></i>投资低pe和低pb，那么，你实际上投的并不是价值，而是<i><b>地产周期和信贷周期</b></i>。</p>\n<p>表面上看<i><b>深度价值投资或捡烟蒂策略</b></i>似乎是一种普适的投资理念，实际上，它所适应的是特殊的行业和特定的历史阶段。</p>\n<p>因此，与其说2017年是低pe策略的成功，不如说是地产产业链投资的成功。那一年最大的关键词是<i><b>棚改货币化</b></i>。借着一波产业红利，恒大从4元附近涨到了最高的27.4元。</p>\n<p>2020年初疫情爆发，信贷短暂的宽松，让恒大的重资产模式回光返照了一下，最高股价再度接近27元。但是，2021年初的三条红线让一切都画上了休止符。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/166dc3d2da5e3167588b5514b2c12624\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<h3><b>资产风险和非对称性</b></h3>\n<p>事实上，低pe的企业还很多，这些企业往往都是三层景气架构的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cd7ed45be9b48a422701ab61a20901\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>低pe投资最大的错误在于，<i><b>认为估值和资产风险是在一个平面上</b></i>。他们运用了一个很蹩脚的比喻——<i><b>弥补，低估值可以弥补资产风险。</b></i></p>\n<p>弥补这个比喻需要一个前提条件——资产端的某种可逆性。但是，重资产行业的资产端往往不具备这种可逆性。</p>\n<p><i><b>行业可以具备可逆性，但这种可逆性不会传递到企业。</b></i></p>\n<p>以银行为例，如果某个行业遭遇危机，一批企业倒闭，他所持有的那部分债券归零；即便这个行业重新恢复，新的企业崛起，这也跟银行没什么关系，<i><b>这些企业不会帮倒闭的企业偿还债务</b></i>。</p>\n<p>对银行业来说，<i><b>微观和中观是割裂的，这会导致一种非对称性</b></i>，每次行业下行周期，银行会损失一些；但在行业上升周期，银行没法把这些损失捞回来。因此，银行资产端所承受的风险，并不是一个对称的行业波动风险，而是一个非对称风险——<i><b>行业景气向下越久越大，死的企业越多，银行亏得越多</b></i>。</p>\n<p>总的来说，银行的资产端是大量的微观企业的债券，会遭遇相当大的非对称性。所以，银行十分惧怕经常性大的行业周期波动。这种波动越大越多，银行遭遇的资产风险越大。</p>\n<p>实际上，资产风险比估值高了两阶，非对称性又凌驾在资产风险之上。只有较高的业绩增速（<i>ps：靠高利率</i>），才有可能<i><b>缓释</b></i>非对称性。</p>\n<p>低估值只是企业承担资产风险的结果。当资产质量开始恶化，估值只是被动地<i><b>看起来</b></i>越来越低，仅此而已。当资产质量好转，很多银行的估值也回不到初始状态了，因为<i><b>违约的企业已经倒闭了</b></i>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e3d141836eef3ab6809696521c85c53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如上图所示，真正压制估值的原因有三个：1、重资产；2、高杠杆；3、非对称性。</p>\n<p>事实上，最重要的是<i><b>非对称性</b></i>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/503234a8a5fbd61b23d3bf3724ef9139\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>理解清楚非对称性之后，就能理解清楚以下两个问题：1、为什么银行的pb一直在掉；2、为什么银行老需要补充资本。</p>\n<p>除了银行和地产之外，保险和券商也是高杠杆+重资产的。除了金融行业以外，好多重资产公司也有非对称的问题，非对称的问题有高有低。</p>\n<h3><b>结束语</b></h3>\n<p>坦率的说，银行股（<i>或者说重资产行业</i>）是极难研究的一类标的，他的景气框架实际上是四阶的：<i><b>估值、利润增速、资产质量、非对称性</b></i>。</p>\n<p>但是，因为各种各样的原因，普通投资者也好，资深投资者也罢，总是被估值和分红迷惑（<i>或许是DCF模型深入人心吧</i>）。</p>\n<p>他们总是以为估值或分红能解决什么问题，实际上，并不能。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>估值只是一个结果，就像你喝多了酒会晕一样。</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>基于低估值去抄底，有一个很核心的条件：<i><b>那就是对称性</b></i>。</p>\n<p>显然想清楚一个行业的业务模式和景气框架结构是困难的。所以，最可怕的还是那句话，（无脑地）价值投资，长期持有。</p>\n<p>如上面的案例所展示的，在低利润增速+非对称性之下，长期持有的结果是灾难性的。</p>\n<p>为了避免踩坑，还是要提醒大家以下几点：</p>\n<p><i><b>1、市场是有效的，即便短期无效，拉长了时间看一定有效；</b></i></p>\n<p><i><b>2、不要基于便宜去抄底；</b></i></p>\n<p><i><b>3、如果你要跟市场对着干，一定要确认你比市场上99%的人水平高；</b></i></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>价值投资中的陷阱</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n价值投资中的陷阱\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-22 10:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/497217><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>引子\n每隔一段时间，市场就会跑出一群价值投资者。这个周期或长或短，上一次大概是在2017年的时候，那时候，人们言必称价值。\n那么，什么是价值投资者呢？关于这一点，并没有一个特别清晰的定义。人人都自诩价值投资，即便是赛道投资者也是——人家投资的是未来的价值。\n但是，如果我们把价值投资的定义收窄到投资低PE或低PB的股票，这个定义就很清晰了。\n2017年是此类策略的高光时刻。以工商银行（代表低PE）...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/497217\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"601398":"工商银行","01398":"工商银行"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/497217","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2185826580","content_text":"引子\n每隔一段时间，市场就会跑出一群价值投资者。这个周期或长或短，上一次大概是在2017年的时候，那时候，人们言必称价值。\n那么，什么是价值投资者呢？关于这一点，并没有一个特别清晰的定义。人人都自诩价值投资，即便是赛道投资者也是——人家投资的是未来的价值。\n但是，如果我们把价值投资的定义收窄到投资低PE或低PB的股票，这个定义就很清晰了。\n2017年是此类策略的高光时刻。以工商银行（代表低PE）为例，在2016年-2017年，它的股价从低点的3.16上涨至高点的6.42 。\n\n巴菲特是很多人心目中的偶像，很多投资在初入这个市场的时候，都或多或少地会受一种思想的蛊惑——要买的足够便宜。之所以如此，大概有4点原因：\n1、我们都想买的便宜；\n2、我们喜欢实实在在的东西——分红；\n3、我们都认为自己很聪明，有一双闪闪发光的大眼睛；\n4、有人成功过；\n理解清楚了这个渊源，就不难理解为什么中国平安里有那么多散户，也不难理解为什么很多人以银行股入坑。\n至暗时刻\n2018年市场进入了全面熊市，所有策略都不怎么样。\n进入2019年之后，市场出现了分化。成长类的股票一骑绝尘，简单粗暴地总结，PE高的越来越高，高得有些离谱。\n如果仅仅是别人涨自己不涨倒罢了，很多老白马股开始跌跌不休。最为典型的有两只股票，一只是中国平安，另一只是格力电器。虽然工商银行也不给力，但好歹股价挂得住。这两只把投资者跌到心理崩溃。\n说实话，当初爱的多深，现在就有多迷茫。\n当然，还有不少人在坚守，他们坚信总有天亮的那一刻。这种精神固然让人敬佩，但我们还是应该搞清楚——反转的条件是什么。\n银行股低pe的本质\n为了搞清楚反转的条件，我们需要先弄清楚银行股低pe的本质。\n很多人会讲，银行股pe低的主要原因是它们的利润增速低。这种说法有一定道理，但很不全面。有关这个解释，不少新手会说，我能接受利润增速低，少赚一些也很好啊。所以，他们会源源不断地飞蛾扑火。\n事实上，之所以银行股PE低，是因为其业务模式承担了特别高的风险。\n银行业务模式是一个重资产+高杠杆的业务模式，这种业务模式风险很高。举个例子，银行持有100元的资产，收取票息5%，负债加运营成本是3%，息差是2%。这100元每年能赚2元。也就是说，靠息差需要50年才能把本金赚回来，但是，只要客户违约，本金全没了。\n因此，对于银行业来说，它的景气框架更加复杂，至少是三阶的：估值、利润增速和资产质量。如下图所示：\n\n在前文《从醉酒现象看景气追逐和景气周期》中，我们把景气分析拆成两个维度，估值和利润增速。估值和利润增速二者的地位并不是对等的，利润增速的优先级更高，即投资者被利润增速所驱动，估值则是一个不太好用的刹车。\n银行股的分析还需要加入一个优先级更高的维度——资产质量，资产质量相对于利润增速的地位也是碾压式的。\n不难发现，在这个三层体系里，资产质量是个扣分项，资产质量再好，银行股的估值也只能勉强接近普通的轻资产行业。所以，银行股的pe一般都很低，资产质量越被不信任的银行，pe越低。\n\n同样是赚到一块钱，贵不贵并不是看pe，看的是业务模式，是你怎么赚的这一块钱，是承担很小的风险，还是承担巨大风险。\n\n现实真的有些吊诡，不少散户是基于低pe买的银行股，结果银行股的景气分析却是最难。\n不太容易的景气分析\n为什么银行股的景气分析十分困难？因为你除了要观察利润增速变化（供需分析），还要跟踪各种行业的行业政策和行业景气度——它们的景气度状况会影响资产质量。\n所以，银行业想要获得一波景气十分艰难，条件太难凑齐了——你既要自身的利润状况好，还要其他行业别出幺蛾子。\n\n也就是说，只有与之相关性大的行业都好了，银行股才有可能获得一波景气。\n\n对银行板块来说，今年最大的拖累项是地产行业。对于地产行业，银行的风险敞口是两块，一块是按揭贷款，融资主体是居民；另一块是开发贷款，融资主体是房地产商。\n今年出问题的是后者。1月1日以来，房地产融资的“三条红线”政策开始执行，很多地产商开始出现去杠杆，房地产商的信用问题频发。于是，银行的资产质量承压，估值往下掉。\n不少人会问，既然按揭贷款没出问题，只是开发贷款的问题，为什么不是开发贷款多的银行跌，而是，所有的银行都在跌？这是因为按揭贷款和开发贷款是捆绑在一块的，是一个闭环。对于一个地产项目，一家银行不可能只做它的按揭贷款（只挑低风险的做），而不做它的开发贷款（风险让别的银行承担）。\n\n如上图所示，按揭贷款放得越多，开发商才有钱把开发贷还掉；银行资产端的信用风险主体才会由开发商变成居民。\n这种机制会导致一个特别有趣的现象：银行的资产质量跟信贷周期捆绑在一块，信贷松尤其是房贷松，银行的资产质量预期提高；反之，下滑。\n但是，如果信贷太松，房价又可能过快上涨，这与房住不炒和共同富裕是相背离的。正是因为这种种纠葛，才导致了市场很难去把控银行股景气度的变化。\n曲折的走势\n事实上，今年以来银行板块的走势相当混乱。\n\n一、2020年12月，三条红线政策落地，板块基于预期先跌了一波；\n二、2021年1月，信贷脉冲，导致市场预期出现反复，开始低估政策影响——觉得影响似乎不大；\n三、2月至3月，零星的信用问题开始显现；\n四、6月至7月，二季报不及预期、pmi下滑、信用问题恶化，导致板块大幅下挫；\n五、市场反复基于政策预期扰动，尽管q3业绩还不错。\n之所以走势这么乱，主要还是因为影响银行板块的因素太多：1、关键行业的政策预期；2、自身的业绩增速；3、整个经济的景气度pmi。\n即便到现在，信贷政策已经出现了一定的松动，市场也很难就以上三个问题达成共识。\n低pe投资的本质\n搞清楚银行低pe的本质以及其景气分析框架之后，就不难理解低pe投资的本质到底是什么了。\n低pe实际上是一种筛选，往往会筛选出“重资产+高杠杆”的业务模式（另一种情况是强周期股的周期顶点），因为重资产+高杠杆是需要风险补偿的，需要很低的pe，只有在信贷比较宽松的情况下，这种补偿才可能是低的。\n在国内，与地产相关的行业——银行、地产、建筑等都具备类似的特征，所以，如果你按照低pe来筛选，很大一部分都是地产产业链。\n如果你笃信深度价值投资——投资低pe和低pb，那么，你实际上投的并不是价值，而是地产周期和信贷周期。\n表面上看深度价值投资或捡烟蒂策略似乎是一种普适的投资理念，实际上，它所适应的是特殊的行业和特定的历史阶段。\n因此，与其说2017年是低pe策略的成功，不如说是地产产业链投资的成功。那一年最大的关键词是棚改货币化。借着一波产业红利，恒大从4元附近涨到了最高的27.4元。\n2020年初疫情爆发，信贷短暂的宽松，让恒大的重资产模式回光返照了一下，最高股价再度接近27元。但是，2021年初的三条红线让一切都画上了休止符。\n\n资产风险和非对称性\n事实上，低pe的企业还很多，这些企业往往都是三层景气架构的。\n\n低pe投资最大的错误在于，认为估值和资产风险是在一个平面上。他们运用了一个很蹩脚的比喻——弥补，低估值可以弥补资产风险。\n弥补这个比喻需要一个前提条件——资产端的某种可逆性。但是，重资产行业的资产端往往不具备这种可逆性。\n行业可以具备可逆性，但这种可逆性不会传递到企业。\n以银行为例，如果某个行业遭遇危机，一批企业倒闭，他所持有的那部分债券归零；即便这个行业重新恢复，新的企业崛起，这也跟银行没什么关系，这些企业不会帮倒闭的企业偿还债务。\n对银行业来说，微观和中观是割裂的，这会导致一种非对称性，每次行业下行周期，银行会损失一些；但在行业上升周期，银行没法把这些损失捞回来。因此，银行资产端所承受的风险，并不是一个对称的行业波动风险，而是一个非对称风险——行业景气向下越久越大，死的企业越多，银行亏得越多。\n总的来说，银行的资产端是大量的微观企业的债券，会遭遇相当大的非对称性。所以，银行十分惧怕经常性大的行业周期波动。这种波动越大越多，银行遭遇的资产风险越大。\n实际上，资产风险比估值高了两阶，非对称性又凌驾在资产风险之上。只有较高的业绩增速（ps：靠高利率），才有可能缓释非对称性。\n低估值只是企业承担资产风险的结果。当资产质量开始恶化，估值只是被动地看起来越来越低，仅此而已。当资产质量好转，很多银行的估值也回不到初始状态了，因为违约的企业已经倒闭了。\n\n如上图所示，真正压制估值的原因有三个：1、重资产；2、高杠杆；3、非对称性。\n事实上，最重要的是非对称性。\n\n理解清楚非对称性之后，就能理解清楚以下两个问题：1、为什么银行的pb一直在掉；2、为什么银行老需要补充资本。\n除了银行和地产之外，保险和券商也是高杠杆+重资产的。除了金融行业以外，好多重资产公司也有非对称的问题，非对称的问题有高有低。\n结束语\n坦率的说，银行股（或者说重资产行业）是极难研究的一类标的，他的景气框架实际上是四阶的：估值、利润增速、资产质量、非对称性。\n但是，因为各种各样的原因，普通投资者也好，资深投资者也罢，总是被估值和分红迷惑（或许是DCF模型深入人心吧）。\n他们总是以为估值或分红能解决什么问题，实际上，并不能。\n\n估值只是一个结果，就像你喝多了酒会晕一样。\n\n基于低估值去抄底，有一个很核心的条件：那就是对称性。\n显然想清楚一个行业的业务模式和景气框架结构是困难的。所以，最可怕的还是那句话，（无脑地）价值投资，长期持有。\n如上面的案例所展示的，在低利润增速+非对称性之下，长期持有的结果是灾难性的。\n为了避免踩坑，还是要提醒大家以下几点：\n1、市场是有效的，即便短期无效，拉长了时间看一定有效；\n2、不要基于便宜去抄底；\n3、如果你要跟市场对着干，一定要确认你比市场上99%的人水平高；","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847757496,"gmtCreate":1636555762831,"gmtModify":1636556411772,"author":{"id":"3576646113789799","authorId":"3576646113789799","name":"面如冠玉的泰格","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e00d39b41f5fcfc59c667f0b8acbfd6","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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