甜五辛的个人主页 - 老虎社区

甜五辛

甜五辛

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IP属地：广东

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5主题

0勋章

2023-04-01

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 真的窒息了贾总在座的都是尊贵的20元股东[笑哭] [笑哭]

2022-07-14

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$加油，再来三倍回本

2022-07-05

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$70不是梦

2022-06-08

[举爪]

2年44倍的美股背后，是怎么样的故事？

2022-05-14

看看就好

@交易员Owen:美股的熊市开始了吗？什么位置是底，何时会结束？

2022-03-14

$老虎证券(TIGR)$脸都不要了

2022-02-25

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$去到4吧，Eric Wu 你明年可以领2亿刀工资

2022-02-24

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$你为什么要在今天发财报，我自闭了[流泪]

2021-12-25

$*ST中天(600856)$我就静静地看着中天退。[可爱]

2021-12-10

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ummmm 被割的钱不要紧，忽然发现被割了很多时间，心碎了💔

2021-12-07

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$开始抢筹了吗

2021-12-04

$Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.(ZOM)$退市吧！

2021-11-15

$Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.(ZOM)$四月横到现在[捂脸]

2021-11-04

$Zillow(Z)$回到20吧

2021-11-03

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$走坏了？OPEN近半年走得就没好过啊等一个财报

2021-10-18

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$这………

2021-09-15

$Nxt-ID Inc.(NXTD)$没有最低只有更低

2021-09-09

$中国艺术金融(01572)$[暗中观察]

2021-08-26

$Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.(ZOM)$是你啊，好久不见了，不过我猜，我还是要在0.4等你。[害羞]

2021-08-12

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$哈哈哈哈哈我看你能去哪里，open door怕不是个地底星人啊🤔 加油，向着地底，March！！！

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[笑哭]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688473945,"gmtCreate":1657811079489,"gmtModify":1704868385783,"author":{"id":"3574429042430119","authorId":"3574429042430119","name":"甜五辛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c04abe64468a74821f501dcf150f87","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>加油，再来三倍回本","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>加油，再来三倍回本","text":"$Faraday 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Future(FFIE)$70不是梦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681277290","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680093057,"gmtCreate":1654665457683,"gmtModify":1704860020469,"author":{"id":"3574429042430119","authorId":"3574429042430119","name":"甜五辛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c04abe64468a74821f501dcf150f87","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[举爪]&nbsp;","listText":"[举爪]&nbsp;","text":"[举爪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680093057","repostId":"2241078178","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2241078178","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"坚守初心，不随俗流。用一颗匠子心打造一个具有广度、深度、高度、温度的港股交流圈。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"丫丫港股圈","id":"34","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f7fb70656354008b8dc51008d01a3f5"},"pubTimestamp":1654653917,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2241078178?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-08 10:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2年44倍的美股背后，是怎么样的故事？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2241078178","media":"丫丫港股圈","summary":"2年44倍的背后，是怎么样的故事？由于收入增长，目前的市销率在2倍以下，并且被快速增长的收入所消化，现阶段是业绩驱动的上涨。最终导致了较大的估值波动空间，AR的44倍涨幅，完全近似于市销率从0.04倍至2倍的涨幅。而还有些深度价值烟蒂投资者，在2020年AR跌至0.1倍PB的时候进入，他们赌的是这么大净资产的公司重估涨幅很大，只要油价回暖，1倍PB，那就是涨10倍了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>从2020年的连续熔断到现在的短短两年时间，美股居然走出不少10倍以上，甚至存在着最高涨幅达到44倍的公司。</blockquote><p>美股不止不觉，已经在半年时间下跌近25%，如此悲观的美股，上次还得追溯到2020年的熔断。</p><p>当然，相比2020年的连续熔断，现在的美股依然高高在上，纳斯达克指数距离熔断低点的涨幅仍高达73%。</p><p>在这两年里，发生了太多事情了，现实线上经济的繁荣带动一大批互联网平台型公司的暴涨，然后是各种科技赛道，还有大蓝筹的稳定输出，直至如今，周期股成为美股的主宰。</p><p>而令人感到意外的是，从熔断到现在的短短两年时间，美股居然走出不少10倍以上，甚至存在着最高涨幅达到44倍的公司。</p><p>2年44倍的背后，是怎么样的故事？</p><p><b>一、极致的周期</b></p><p>首先从美股的2年来涨幅排行榜看，排除非连贯交易的重组导致涨幅过高的公司，涨幅最高的公司是AR（安泰罗能源），SM（圣玛丽石油勘测）和MTDR（matador能源），都是石油及天然气相关公司。而三者的熔断低点至今涨幅分别为45倍，39倍和35倍。而大多数美股在过去20年都不一定能取得这么高的涨幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01897990cbc4a04bb904a54ea6e6b99\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>其中，涨幅最高的AR目前已经达到了100亿市值以上，不算小盘股了，这也意味着，这些公司的上涨都是创造了巨大的财富效应的，并不是空穴来风。</p><p>我们主要看到AR这家公司，在熔断当时，是怎么出现2.3亿的最低市值，市场对其估值模式是如何变化的，而后面又是因何在短短两年回升44倍的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc7d895e3fe74d04a396023a9ec16b61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>AR是一家位于阿巴拉契亚盆地的从事天然气、液态天然气和石油资产的开发、生产、勘探的公司。</p><p>公司与大部分的石油天然气周期股类似，基本都是与天然气价格呈业绩的正相关关系，而公司最大的特点是对天然气价格的对冲敞口很小，因此公司对天然气现货价格的风险暴露高，因此，公司的盈利弹性巨大。</p><p>我们可以看到目前的价格及成本表及公司的风险敞口。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b8d81fd1944b8ba1baf2724af671c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e714a7991164dcd95b72530d0b9cacb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>不进行长期价格锁定的优劣也显而易见，公司在油气价格大幅下行，没有什么保底合约，加上巨大的固定成本，公司将会严重亏损，而油气价格大幅上行，则从中大幅收益。</p><p>在这种结构下，解释了为什么能跌那么多的问题，2020年在负油价的恐怖状态下，AR的业绩大幅下行，单季度亏损已经超过5亿美元，并且还有扩大趋势，自由现金流也已经转负，而公司当时仍是资产负债率高企的状态，2020年2季度有息负债高达37亿，流动资产只有8亿，固定资产基本都是难以变现的开采设施，一旦发生亏损非常容易资不抵债，加上美股接连熔断，人心惶惶，在极端情况下，公司一度跌至0.04倍PS的估值，也就是2亿左右美元的市值。</p><p>但注意到，尽管大家预期油价低迷，看股价几个季度后公司就要破产，但从数字看远远没有这么糟：截止到2020年6月，公司的净资产仍有61亿，也就是说，市净率已经低达0.03倍，公司的固定支出（折旧+运输+利息）为39亿/年左右，就算油价为0，公司收入为0，不收缩产能，也得1.5年的超低油价才能亏成账面的负资产，这是毫无疑问的低估，可以说，在熔断的窒息行情下，市场对AR产生了不合理的低估，当然这个低估跟其现货敞口策略不无关系。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2936a773d55441c6b4ee92a471b48691\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/704d6c05a3964013ad2623e08fcd64e6\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"858\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>当然，此后的故事大家可想而知了，油价并没有在负区间待多久，三四季度能源价格基本回升到正常水平了，公司因而2020年的自由现金流也并未为负，加上美股已经全面复苏，公司在2021年末，PS很快回升到了传统周期股正常低位0.5倍左右，加上放水通胀的长期预期，对于盈亏平衡的周期股大家也不那么要求严格了，在这一年里，股价完成了从低位到高位的近9倍的涨幅，大概是18亿的市值。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b95629c95b04a91bf96f3671daaab9f\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>时间来到2021年，通胀正式开始，而油价也在2021年继续回升，这一年，公司的自由现金流回升至9亿，并且已经有不俗盈利，因而公司PS也继续回升至1.2倍左右水平，达到近50亿的市值。这一年，公司股价上涨了近2倍。</p><p>2022年，俄乌战争爆发，油价再次飙升，此时作为敞口最大的天然气公司之一，公司的业绩弹性变成了向上的助燃剂，一季度过后，公司以80美元/桶美油价格预期，已经能算出来的全年自由现金流已经可以高达25亿，而假设80美元油价能持续至2026年，公司未来5年的自由现金流将达到100亿左右，加上目前油价持续暴涨，WTI油价已经触及120，公司今年的预期盈利额还大概率超预期，这也使得，公司股价继续往上，2022年全年上涨170%，至目前140亿左右的市值，基本等于现在的净资产+未来五年的预期自由现金流。</p><p>由于收入增长，目前的市销率在2倍以下，并且被快速增长的收入所消化，现阶段是业绩驱动的上涨。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9bad5028fce45a3b8a8f6699f81e6df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>自此，三年涨幅累积，公司实现了44倍的底部至高部涨幅，也几乎是美股乃至全球最强的周期股。当然，公司的利润变化并不算大，只不过是从亏20亿/年到赚25亿/年。</p><p><b>二、起点低，终点高</b></p><p>而除了AR，其余的高涨幅个股SM，MTDR也都大同小异，它们基本都是同样的规律，周期性的风险敞口大，而亏损时有较多的负债，容易濒临崩溃，而市场也会因为某些因素在此基础上进一步放大恐惧，低估其价值。</p><p>最终导致了较大的估值波动空间，AR的44倍涨幅，完全近似于市销率从0.04倍至2倍的涨幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e538fec1489f4b43b14505cdce2935a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83952d93d8b64e2182744d3678d69ba9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>当然，一个股票的基本面不可能2年突然间异变几十倍，在这个过程中，起点过低是一个必要因素，我们通过AR的净资产，也就是市净率分析，知道其最低点是不合理的，0元的油价维持1.5年，账面净资产才转负，即使排除流动性因素，如开采器械不易变现等，那公司的净资产1年不转负也没问题，那问题来了，疫情所导致的因素真的会让一个全球70亿人使用的大宗商品长期处于那么低的价格吗？</p><p>当然，另一个因素也有可能是现在的油价过高，导致这些公司的估值回升到了不合理的高位，所以有很高的终点，也许120的油价也是几个月的昙花一现，未来5年的油价基本也是维持在60-70比较正常的一线水平，那么显然，目前AR的估值也是高估的了。</p><p>因此，对于普通人来说，这个44倍的涨幅难以把握，事实上也有很多投资者在过去的很多年中押注AR，但结果大多数都不尽如人意。</p><p>有些看长期的价值投资者，18-19年开始进入AR，他们赌的是长期油价水平理应从50-60抬升至60-70一线，逻辑上没问题，现在看是对了，那时的股价大概在10-20左右，有4年1-2倍的回报。</p><p>而还有些深度价值烟蒂投资者，在2020年AR跌至0.1倍PB的时候进入，他们赌的是这么大净资产的公司重估涨幅很大，只要油价回暖，1倍PB，那就是涨10倍了。现在看来，逻辑上也对了。</p><p>但他们中的大多数都被绞杀了，甚至是破产了。因为股价从10元跌到0.7元，跌幅超过90%，而最低的PB是0.03倍，0.1倍买入，还是能跌70%。</p><p>而这个跌幅放在大部分的投资机构，或者稍微上点杠杆的投资者里，意味着清盘或者爆仓。</p><p>所以有没有人能从中赚44倍？恐怕没有，长期持有非流动股的管理层和股东会完整地经历这一切，当然，前面的下跌他们也照单全收了。</p><p>因此，这种公司的把握极难，投资者不应该上重仓去赌这种机会，而且掐头去尾，能在44倍中获得部分就很好了。</p><p>毕竟我们看到，当时的石油股，确实有跌到停牌重组的，股权稀释过后，这种后面重组上市后市值到现在看上去也有很大的增长倍数，但是小股东从中就得不到什么了。</p><p>从中可以学到的是，周期性导致的估值极端变化，往往是短期最高回报的来源，我想任何一个妖股或者被热炒的赛道股，在绝对涨幅方面，都难达到这类公司的高度。</p><p><b>三、结语</b></p><p>当然，这两年资源周期的变化，只是上千年来周期变化的一小段故事而已，过去未来，都还会有这样表现极端的周期股出现。</p><p>投资者参与是可行的，但是更多的是在这上面饱受折磨，买得太快太慢，太多太少，都不行，甚至还要抛弃自己的风控纪律，才能看到灿烂的未来。</p><p>而现在要考虑的问题是，哪些公司又会发生这样的周期颠覆呢？</p><p>截止今年，美股跌最多的是：生物科技股，亏损互联网股，中概教育股，随着融资端的收紧，它们开始了出现了一些极端杀估值的倾向。</p><p>当然，就估值而言，还没有哪家公司出现像AR这样0.04倍PS，0.03倍PB的情形，但纵观全局，要问在这次大跌后，新的周期颠覆将在哪个方向发生，毫无疑问肯定不在资源股上，在那些大家都不看好的边沿化的方向上，发生的概率更大。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2年44倍的美股背后，是怎么样的故事？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2年44倍的美股背后，是怎么样的故事？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/34\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f7fb70656354008b8dc51008d01a3f5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">丫丫港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-08 10:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>从2020年的连续熔断到现在的短短两年时间，美股居然走出不少10倍以上，甚至存在着最高涨幅达到44倍的公司。</blockquote><p>美股不止不觉，已经在半年时间下跌近25%，如此悲观的美股，上次还得追溯到2020年的熔断。</p><p>当然，相比2020年的连续熔断，现在的美股依然高高在上，纳斯达克指数距离熔断低点的涨幅仍高达73%。</p><p>在这两年里，发生了太多事情了，现实线上经济的繁荣带动一大批互联网平台型公司的暴涨，然后是各种科技赛道，还有大蓝筹的稳定输出，直至如今，周期股成为美股的主宰。</p><p>而令人感到意外的是，从熔断到现在的短短两年时间，美股居然走出不少10倍以上，甚至存在着最高涨幅达到44倍的公司。</p><p>2年44倍的背后，是怎么样的故事？</p><p><b>一、极致的周期</b></p><p>首先从美股的2年来涨幅排行榜看，排除非连贯交易的重组导致涨幅过高的公司，涨幅最高的公司是AR（安泰罗能源），SM（圣玛丽石油勘测）和MTDR（matador能源），都是石油及天然气相关公司。而三者的熔断低点至今涨幅分别为45倍，39倍和35倍。而大多数美股在过去20年都不一定能取得这么高的涨幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01897990cbc4a04bb904a54ea6e6b99\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"249\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>其中，涨幅最高的AR目前已经达到了100亿市值以上，不算小盘股了，这也意味着，这些公司的上涨都是创造了巨大的财富效应的，并不是空穴来风。</p><p>我们主要看到AR这家公司，在熔断当时，是怎么出现2.3亿的最低市值，市场对其估值模式是如何变化的，而后面又是因何在短短两年回升44倍的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc7d895e3fe74d04a396023a9ec16b61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>AR是一家位于阿巴拉契亚盆地的从事天然气、液态天然气和石油资产的开发、生产、勘探的公司。</p><p>公司与大部分的石油天然气周期股类似，基本都是与天然气价格呈业绩的正相关关系，而公司最大的特点是对天然气价格的对冲敞口很小，因此公司对天然气现货价格的风险暴露高，因此，公司的盈利弹性巨大。</p><p>我们可以看到目前的价格及成本表及公司的风险敞口。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b8d81fd1944b8ba1baf2724af671c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e714a7991164dcd95b72530d0b9cacb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>不进行长期价格锁定的优劣也显而易见，公司在油气价格大幅下行，没有什么保底合约，加上巨大的固定成本，公司将会严重亏损，而油气价格大幅上行，则从中大幅收益。</p><p>在这种结构下，解释了为什么能跌那么多的问题，2020年在负油价的恐怖状态下，AR的业绩大幅下行，单季度亏损已经超过5亿美元，并且还有扩大趋势，自由现金流也已经转负，而公司当时仍是资产负债率高企的状态，2020年2季度有息负债高达37亿，流动资产只有8亿，固定资产基本都是难以变现的开采设施，一旦发生亏损非常容易资不抵债，加上美股接连熔断，人心惶惶，在极端情况下，公司一度跌至0.04倍PS的估值，也就是2亿左右美元的市值。</p><p>但注意到，尽管大家预期油价低迷，看股价几个季度后公司就要破产，但从数字看远远没有这么糟：截止到2020年6月，公司的净资产仍有61亿，也就是说，市净率已经低达0.03倍，公司的固定支出（折旧+运输+利息）为39亿/年左右，就算油价为0，公司收入为0，不收缩产能，也得1.5年的超低油价才能亏成账面的负资产，这是毫无疑问的低估，可以说，在熔断的窒息行情下，市场对AR产生了不合理的低估，当然这个低估跟其现货敞口策略不无关系。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2936a773d55441c6b4ee92a471b48691\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/704d6c05a3964013ad2623e08fcd64e6\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"858\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>当然，此后的故事大家可想而知了，油价并没有在负区间待多久，三四季度能源价格基本回升到正常水平了，公司因而2020年的自由现金流也并未为负，加上美股已经全面复苏，公司在2021年末，PS很快回升到了传统周期股正常低位0.5倍左右，加上放水通胀的长期预期，对于盈亏平衡的周期股大家也不那么要求严格了，在这一年里，股价完成了从低位到高位的近9倍的涨幅，大概是18亿的市值。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b95629c95b04a91bf96f3671daaab9f\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>时间来到2021年，通胀正式开始，而油价也在2021年继续回升，这一年，公司的自由现金流回升至9亿，并且已经有不俗盈利，因而公司PS也继续回升至1.2倍左右水平，达到近50亿的市值。这一年，公司股价上涨了近2倍。</p><p>2022年，俄乌战争爆发，油价再次飙升，此时作为敞口最大的天然气公司之一，公司的业绩弹性变成了向上的助燃剂，一季度过后，公司以80美元/桶美油价格预期，已经能算出来的全年自由现金流已经可以高达25亿，而假设80美元油价能持续至2026年，公司未来5年的自由现金流将达到100亿左右，加上目前油价持续暴涨，WTI油价已经触及120，公司今年的预期盈利额还大概率超预期，这也使得，公司股价继续往上，2022年全年上涨170%，至目前140亿左右的市值，基本等于现在的净资产+未来五年的预期自由现金流。</p><p>由于收入增长，目前的市销率在2倍以下，并且被快速增长的收入所消化，现阶段是业绩驱动的上涨。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9bad5028fce45a3b8a8f6699f81e6df\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>自此，三年涨幅累积，公司实现了44倍的底部至高部涨幅，也几乎是美股乃至全球最强的周期股。当然，公司的利润变化并不算大，只不过是从亏20亿/年到赚25亿/年。</p><p><b>二、起点低，终点高</b></p><p>而除了AR，其余的高涨幅个股SM，MTDR也都大同小异，它们基本都是同样的规律，周期性的风险敞口大，而亏损时有较多的负债，容易濒临崩溃，而市场也会因为某些因素在此基础上进一步放大恐惧，低估其价值。</p><p>最终导致了较大的估值波动空间，AR的44倍涨幅，完全近似于市销率从0.04倍至2倍的涨幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e538fec1489f4b43b14505cdce2935a4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83952d93d8b64e2182744d3678d69ba9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>当然，一个股票的基本面不可能2年突然间异变几十倍，在这个过程中，起点过低是一个必要因素，我们通过AR的净资产，也就是市净率分析，知道其最低点是不合理的，0元的油价维持1.5年，账面净资产才转负，即使排除流动性因素，如开采器械不易变现等，那公司的净资产1年不转负也没问题，那问题来了，疫情所导致的因素真的会让一个全球70亿人使用的大宗商品长期处于那么低的价格吗？</p><p>当然，另一个因素也有可能是现在的油价过高，导致这些公司的估值回升到了不合理的高位，所以有很高的终点，也许120的油价也是几个月的昙花一现，未来5年的油价基本也是维持在60-70比较正常的一线水平，那么显然，目前AR的估值也是高估的了。</p><p>因此，对于普通人来说，这个44倍的涨幅难以把握，事实上也有很多投资者在过去的很多年中押注AR，但结果大多数都不尽如人意。</p><p>有些看长期的价值投资者，18-19年开始进入AR，他们赌的是长期油价水平理应从50-60抬升至60-70一线，逻辑上没问题，现在看是对了，那时的股价大概在10-20左右，有4年1-2倍的回报。</p><p>而还有些深度价值烟蒂投资者，在2020年AR跌至0.1倍PB的时候进入，他们赌的是这么大净资产的公司重估涨幅很大，只要油价回暖，1倍PB，那就是涨10倍了。现在看来，逻辑上也对了。</p><p>但他们中的大多数都被绞杀了，甚至是破产了。因为股价从10元跌到0.7元，跌幅超过90%，而最低的PB是0.03倍，0.1倍买入，还是能跌70%。</p><p>而这个跌幅放在大部分的投资机构，或者稍微上点杠杆的投资者里，意味着清盘或者爆仓。</p><p>所以有没有人能从中赚44倍？恐怕没有，长期持有非流动股的管理层和股东会完整地经历这一切，当然，前面的下跌他们也照单全收了。</p><p>因此，这种公司的把握极难，投资者不应该上重仓去赌这种机会，而且掐头去尾，能在44倍中获得部分就很好了。</p><p>毕竟我们看到，当时的石油股，确实有跌到停牌重组的，股权稀释过后，这种后面重组上市后市值到现在看上去也有很大的增长倍数，但是小股东从中就得不到什么了。</p><p>从中可以学到的是，周期性导致的估值极端变化，往往是短期最高回报的来源，我想任何一个妖股或者被热炒的赛道股，在绝对涨幅方面，都难达到这类公司的高度。</p><p><b>三、结语</b></p><p>当然，这两年资源周期的变化，只是上千年来周期变化的一小段故事而已，过去未来，都还会有这样表现极端的周期股出现。</p><p>投资者参与是可行的，但是更多的是在这上面饱受折磨，买得太快太慢，太多太少，都不行，甚至还要抛弃自己的风控纪律，才能看到灿烂的未来。</p><p>而现在要考虑的问题是，哪些公司又会发生这样的周期颠覆呢？</p><p>截止今年，美股跌最多的是：生物科技股，亏损互联网股，中概教育股，随着融资端的收紧，它们开始了出现了一些极端杀估值的倾向。</p><p>当然，就估值而言，还没有哪家公司出现像AR这样0.04倍PS，0.03倍PB的情形，但纵观全局，要问在这次大跌后，新的周期颠覆将在哪个方向发生，毫无疑问肯定不在资源股上，在那些大家都不看好的边沿化的方向上，发生的概率更大。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8593d7bafc6da002b2ab4975d4711a90","relate_stocks":{"MTDR":"Matador Resources","SM":"SM Energy","AR":"Antero Resources Corp"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2241078178","content_text":"从2020年的连续熔断到现在的短短两年时间，美股居然走出不少10倍以上，甚至存在着最高涨幅达到44倍的公司。美股不止不觉，已经在半年时间下跌近25%，如此悲观的美股，上次还得追溯到2020年的熔断。当然，相比2020年的连续熔断，现在的美股依然高高在上，纳斯达克指数距离熔断低点的涨幅仍高达73%。在这两年里，发生了太多事情了，现实线上经济的繁荣带动一大批互联网平台型公司的暴涨，然后是各种科技赛道，还有大蓝筹的稳定输出，直至如今，周期股成为美股的主宰。而令人感到意外的是，从熔断到现在的短短两年时间，美股居然走出不少10倍以上，甚至存在着最高涨幅达到44倍的公司。2年44倍的背后，是怎么样的故事？一、极致的周期首先从美股的2年来涨幅排行榜看，排除非连贯交易的重组导致涨幅过高的公司，涨幅最高的公司是AR（安泰罗能源），SM（圣玛丽石油勘测）和MTDR（matador能源），都是石油及天然气相关公司。而三者的熔断低点至今涨幅分别为45倍，39倍和35倍。而大多数美股在过去20年都不一定能取得这么高的涨幅。其中，涨幅最高的AR目前已经达到了100亿市值以上，不算小盘股了，这也意味着，这些公司的上涨都是创造了巨大的财富效应的，并不是空穴来风。我们主要看到AR这家公司，在熔断当时，是怎么出现2.3亿的最低市值，市场对其估值模式是如何变化的，而后面又是因何在短短两年回升44倍的。AR是一家位于阿巴拉契亚盆地的从事天然气、液态天然气和石油资产的开发、生产、勘探的公司。公司与大部分的石油天然气周期股类似，基本都是与天然气价格呈业绩的正相关关系，而公司最大的特点是对天然气价格的对冲敞口很小，因此公司对天然气现货价格的风险暴露高，因此，公司的盈利弹性巨大。我们可以看到目前的价格及成本表及公司的风险敞口。不进行长期价格锁定的优劣也显而易见，公司在油气价格大幅下行，没有什么保底合约，加上巨大的固定成本，公司将会严重亏损，而油气价格大幅上行，则从中大幅收益。在这种结构下，解释了为什么能跌那么多的问题，2020年在负油价的恐怖状态下，AR的业绩大幅下行，单季度亏损已经超过5亿美元，并且还有扩大趋势，自由现金流也已经转负，而公司当时仍是资产负债率高企的状态，2020年2季度有息负债高达37亿，流动资产只有8亿，固定资产基本都是难以变现的开采设施，一旦发生亏损非常容易资不抵债，加上美股接连熔断，人心惶惶，在极端情况下，公司一度跌至0.04倍PS的估值，也就是2亿左右美元的市值。但注意到，尽管大家预期油价低迷，看股价几个季度后公司就要破产，但从数字看远远没有这么糟：截止到2020年6月，公司的净资产仍有61亿，也就是说，市净率已经低达0.03倍，公司的固定支出（折旧+运输+利息）为39亿/年左右，就算油价为0，公司收入为0，不收缩产能，也得1.5年的超低油价才能亏成账面的负资产，这是毫无疑问的低估，可以说，在熔断的窒息行情下，市场对AR产生了不合理的低估，当然这个低估跟其现货敞口策略不无关系。当然，此后的故事大家可想而知了，油价并没有在负区间待多久，三四季度能源价格基本回升到正常水平了，公司因而2020年的自由现金流也并未为负，加上美股已经全面复苏，公司在2021年末，PS很快回升到了传统周期股正常低位0.5倍左右，加上放水通胀的长期预期，对于盈亏平衡的周期股大家也不那么要求严格了，在这一年里，股价完成了从低位到高位的近9倍的涨幅，大概是18亿的市值。时间来到2021年，通胀正式开始，而油价也在2021年继续回升，这一年，公司的自由现金流回升至9亿，并且已经有不俗盈利，因而公司PS也继续回升至1.2倍左右水平，达到近50亿的市值。这一年，公司股价上涨了近2倍。2022年，俄乌战争爆发，油价再次飙升，此时作为敞口最大的天然气公司之一，公司的业绩弹性变成了向上的助燃剂，一季度过后，公司以80美元/桶美油价格预期，已经能算出来的全年自由现金流已经可以高达25亿，而假设80美元油价能持续至2026年，公司未来5年的自由现金流将达到100亿左右，加上目前油价持续暴涨，WTI油价已经触及120，公司今年的预期盈利额还大概率超预期，这也使得，公司股价继续往上，2022年全年上涨170%，至目前140亿左右的市值，基本等于现在的净资产+未来五年的预期自由现金流。由于收入增长，目前的市销率在2倍以下，并且被快速增长的收入所消化，现阶段是业绩驱动的上涨。自此，三年涨幅累积，公司实现了44倍的底部至高部涨幅，也几乎是美股乃至全球最强的周期股。当然，公司的利润变化并不算大，只不过是从亏20亿/年到赚25亿/年。二、起点低，终点高而除了AR，其余的高涨幅个股SM，MTDR也都大同小异，它们基本都是同样的规律，周期性的风险敞口大，而亏损时有较多的负债，容易濒临崩溃，而市场也会因为某些因素在此基础上进一步放大恐惧，低估其价值。最终导致了较大的估值波动空间，AR的44倍涨幅，完全近似于市销率从0.04倍至2倍的涨幅。当然，一个股票的基本面不可能2年突然间异变几十倍，在这个过程中，起点过低是一个必要因素，我们通过AR的净资产，也就是市净率分析，知道其最低点是不合理的，0元的油价维持1.5年，账面净资产才转负，即使排除流动性因素，如开采器械不易变现等，那公司的净资产1年不转负也没问题，那问题来了，疫情所导致的因素真的会让一个全球70亿人使用的大宗商品长期处于那么低的价格吗？当然，另一个因素也有可能是现在的油价过高，导致这些公司的估值回升到了不合理的高位，所以有很高的终点，也许120的油价也是几个月的昙花一现，未来5年的油价基本也是维持在60-70比较正常的一线水平，那么显然，目前AR的估值也是高估的了。因此，对于普通人来说，这个44倍的涨幅难以把握，事实上也有很多投资者在过去的很多年中押注AR，但结果大多数都不尽如人意。有些看长期的价值投资者，18-19年开始进入AR，他们赌的是长期油价水平理应从50-60抬升至60-70一线，逻辑上没问题，现在看是对了，那时的股价大概在10-20左右，有4年1-2倍的回报。而还有些深度价值烟蒂投资者，在2020年AR跌至0.1倍PB的时候进入，他们赌的是这么大净资产的公司重估涨幅很大，只要油价回暖，1倍PB，那就是涨10倍了。现在看来，逻辑上也对了。但他们中的大多数都被绞杀了，甚至是破产了。因为股价从10元跌到0.7元，跌幅超过90%，而最低的PB是0.03倍，0.1倍买入，还是能跌70%。而这个跌幅放在大部分的投资机构，或者稍微上点杠杆的投资者里，意味着清盘或者爆仓。所以有没有人能从中赚44倍？恐怕没有，长期持有非流动股的管理层和股东会完整地经历这一切，当然，前面的下跌他们也照单全收了。因此，这种公司的把握极难，投资者不应该上重仓去赌这种机会，而且掐头去尾，能在44倍中获得部分就很好了。毕竟我们看到，当时的石油股，确实有跌到停牌重组的，股权稀释过后，这种后面重组上市后市值到现在看上去也有很大的增长倍数，但是小股东从中就得不到什么了。从中可以学到的是，周期性导致的估值极端变化，往往是短期最高回报的来源，我想任何一个妖股或者被热炒的赛道股，在绝对涨幅方面，都难达到这类公司的高度。三、结语当然，这两年资源周期的变化，只是上千年来周期变化的一小段故事而已，过去未来，都还会有这样表现极端的周期股出现。投资者参与是可行的，但是更多的是在这上面饱受折磨，买得太快太慢，太多太少，都不行，甚至还要抛弃自己的风控纪律，才能看到灿烂的未来。而现在要考虑的问题是，哪些公司又会发生这样的周期颠覆呢？截止今年，美股跌最多的是：生物科技股，亏损互联网股，中概教育股，随着融资端的收紧，它们开始了出现了一些极端杀估值的倾向。当然，就估值而言，还没有哪家公司出现像AR这样0.04倍PS，0.03倍PB的情形，但纵观全局，要问在这次大跌后，新的周期颠覆将在哪个方向发生，毫无疑问肯定不在资源股上，在那些大家都不看好的边沿化的方向上，发生的概率更大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612478808,"gmtCreate":1652496294204,"gmtModify":1652496294204,"author":{"id":"3574429042430119","authorId":"3574429042430119","name":"甜五辛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1c04abe64468a74821f501dcf150f87","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看看就好","listText":"看看就好","text":"看看就好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612478808","repostId":"612819352","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612819352,"gmtCreate":1652261520204,"gmtModify":1652264385504,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"美股的熊市开始了吗？什么位置是底，何时会结束？","htmlText":"本文只分享一些数据和我对数据的看法，我的结论并非就准确，大家见仁见智做个参考。 首先我觉得，我们现在正处在美股罕见的熊市之中，这点毫无疑问。 市场的走势其实很有规律，当大多数人觉得这次美股暴跌来的猝不及防的时候，我们放眼到价格运行的大周期环境下就会发现，这只是美股例行调整中必不可少的一次，用我们中国话说就是：天行有常。 你可以把暴跌归因到通胀的飞涨失控，也可以归因为美联储的加息缩表，也可以归因到乌俄战争，但归根结底是，美股的调整时间到了： 从标普月线的买卖强弱指标RSI和STO来看，每7年就会出现一次调整周期，而这次的买卖强弱指标的调整幅度甚至高于2020年年初那次天灾造成的大崩盘。 但从美股的调整幅度上讲，这次周期性的调整要远远小于2020年的那次股灾，看看纳指的调整，从顶部已经回落了20%，相比Y情元年那次崩盘还差将近10个百分点。 MSCI全球股市指数也下跌了20个百分点，RIS指数来到了超跌区间里。但相比2020年RIS的跌幅，这个位置向下可能还有空间。 以2020年的那次崩盘作为参照并不是说股指的跌幅会重演当初的崩盘，而是说在RSI和STO两个指标的调整空间和时间上，应该会不亚于2年前的那次崩盘，但即便如此，RSI的调整幅度也很快就要到位了。 市场情绪极度悲观 但市场底部马上就要到来 现在对于美股来讲，应该就是黎明前最黑暗的时间，我们相信，美股很可能会在短期出现一次反弹出逃的机会，但长期而言，熊市可能才刚刚开始，按照美股的运行规律，牛市的持续时间通常是熊市的五倍，按照这个规律来算，美股的这次调整预期可能放在5到6个月的时间会是合适的。 下跌的导火索大家都知道，乌俄战争导致的通胀爆发，逼迫美联储大幅加息，利率的抬升对美股高估值形成压力，同时通胀的失控也对经济利润的实体形成冲击。所以这次的大调整，并不能简单的和2015年那次利率抬升引发的回撤相提并论。 我们今天","listText":"本文只分享一些数据和我对数据的看法，我的结论并非就准确，大家见仁见智做个参考。 首先我觉得，我们现在正处在美股罕见的熊市之中，这点毫无疑问。 市场的走势其实很有规律，当大多数人觉得这次美股暴跌来的猝不及防的时候，我们放眼到价格运行的大周期环境下就会发现，这只是美股例行调整中必不可少的一次，用我们中国话说就是：天行有常。 你可以把暴跌归因到通胀的飞涨失控，也可以归因为美联储的加息缩表，也可以归因到乌俄战争，但归根结底是，美股的调整时间到了： 从标普月线的买卖强弱指标RSI和STO来看，每7年就会出现一次调整周期，而这次的买卖强弱指标的调整幅度甚至高于2020年年初那次天灾造成的大崩盘。 但从美股的调整幅度上讲，这次周期性的调整要远远小于2020年的那次股灾，看看纳指的调整，从顶部已经回落了20%，相比Y情元年那次崩盘还差将近10个百分点。 MSCI全球股市指数也下跌了20个百分点，RIS指数来到了超跌区间里。但相比2020年RIS的跌幅，这个位置向下可能还有空间。 以2020年的那次崩盘作为参照并不是说股指的跌幅会重演当初的崩盘，而是说在RSI和STO两个指标的调整空间和时间上，应该会不亚于2年前的那次崩盘，但即便如此，RSI的调整幅度也很快就要到位了。 市场情绪极度悲观 但市场底部马上就要到来 现在对于美股来讲，应该就是黎明前最黑暗的时间，我们相信，美股很可能会在短期出现一次反弹出逃的机会，但长期而言，熊市可能才刚刚开始，按照美股的运行规律，牛市的持续时间通常是熊市的五倍，按照这个规律来算，美股的这次调整预期可能放在5到6个月的时间会是合适的。 下跌的导火索大家都知道，乌俄战争导致的通胀爆发，逼迫美联储大幅加息，利率的抬升对美股高估值形成压力，同时通胀的失控也对经济利润的实体形成冲击。所以这次的大调整，并不能简单的和2015年那次利率抬升引发的回撤相提并论。 我们今天","text":"本文只分享一些数据和我对数据的看法，我的结论并非就准确，大家见仁见智做个参考。 首先我觉得，我们现在正处在美股罕见的熊市之中，这点毫无疑问。 市场的走势其实很有规律，当大多数人觉得这次美股暴跌来的猝不及防的时候，我们放眼到价格运行的大周期环境下就会发现，这只是美股例行调整中必不可少的一次，用我们中国话说就是：天行有常。 你可以把暴跌归因到通胀的飞涨失控，也可以归因为美联储的加息缩表，也可以归因到乌俄战争，但归根结底是，美股的调整时间到了： 从标普月线的买卖强弱指标RSI和STO来看，每7年就会出现一次调整周期，而这次的买卖强弱指标的调整幅度甚至高于2020年年初那次天灾造成的大崩盘。 但从美股的调整幅度上讲，这次周期性的调整要远远小于2020年的那次股灾，看看纳指的调整，从顶部已经回落了20%，相比Y情元年那次崩盘还差将近10个百分点。 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