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偶尔怀旧

偶尔怀旧

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IP属地：湖北

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0勋章

2021-09-22

$好孩子国际(01086)$一个好孩子

2021-11-26

$拼多多(PDD)$快涨阿啊

2021-10-02

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$怎么还在跌呀

2022-07-30

$小米集团-W(01810)$你这起起落落的也不是个事啊

2022-02-17

$农夫山泉(09633)$有点甜

2021-10-31

$特斯拉(TSLA)$还可以涨

2022-01-03

$小米集团-W(01810)$你不是要造车吗，这股价怎么回事啊

2021-09-09

$香港交易所(00388)$买它就对了

2022-08-30

$中芯国际(00981)$快起飞吧

2022-06-10

$云音乐(09899)$听音乐就用它

2022-05-31

$小米集团-W(01810)$多涨几天

2022-02-15

$贵州茅台(600519)$冲上2000元

2021-12-11

$贵州茅台(600519)$白酒涨新汽车跌

2021-12-06

$农夫山泉(09633)$咯农夫山泉

2021-11-17

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴

2021-09-15

$小米集团-W(01810)$小米快涨上来吧

2021-08-02

农夫山泉有点甜

2022-11-14

$海底捞(06862)$ 吃起来

2022-11-08

$小米集团-W(01810)$快涨

2022-10-30

$小米集团-W(01810)$不不要跌了，可以涨了

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<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03047\">$F山证铁矿石(03047)$</a>&nbsp; 对疫情政策转变的预期不断上升，商品市场全面上涨。更广泛的市场情绪对美联储可能放缓加息步伐的信号做出积极反应，助长了涨势。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>&nbsp; 原油上周大幅上涨，因为放松 COVID-19限制增加了需求强劲的希望。石油需求受到遏制病毒的严格措施的影响，中国国家石油公司估计 2022年需求将下降 2%。周五，上海放宽了 COVID-19测试规则，加入北京、深圳、广州和其他城市的行列在最近的抗议活动后重新开放。大多数地方不需要 PCR结果就可以使用公共交通工具或共用空间。然而，随著本周欧洲对俄罗斯石油实施制裁，市场仍处于紧张状态。欧盟还同意对其石油设定 60美元/桶的价格上限，为与七国集团达成更广泛的协议铺平了道路。该价格仍高于俄罗斯乌拉尔原油目前的交易价格。该协议包括一个允许每两个月修订一次的机制，以及一项确保上限的任何重置应使其至少比平均市场利率低 5%的条款。俄罗斯表示不会接受该计划，并准备在任何情况下采取变通办法。副总理亚历山大·诺瓦**告称，他的国家可能会“减产”作为回应。周日，欧佩克还同意保持产量不变，实施上次会议上同意的 2mb/d减产。该决定反映了未来几个月供需的不可预测性。该小组计划在 2月之前举行会议。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>&nbsp; 由于天气下降提振供暖需求，欧","listText":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03047\">$F山证铁矿石(03047)$</a>&nbsp; 对疫情政策转变的预期不断上升，商品市场全面上涨。更广泛的市场情绪对美联储可能放缓加息步伐的信号做出积极反应，助长了涨势。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>&nbsp; 原油上周大幅上涨，因为放松 COVID-19限制增加了需求强劲的希望。石油需求受到遏制病毒的严格措施的影响，中国国家石油公司估计 2022年需求将下降 2%。周五，上海放宽了 COVID-19测试规则，加入北京、深圳、广州和其他城市的行列在最近的抗议活动后重新开放。大多数地方不需要 PCR结果就可以使用公共交通工具或共用空间。然而，随著本周欧洲对俄罗斯石油实施制裁，市场仍处于紧张状态。欧盟还同意对其石油设定 60美元/桶的价格上限，为与七国集团达成更广泛的协议铺平了道路。该价格仍高于俄罗斯乌拉尔原油目前的交易价格。该协议包括一个允许每两个月修订一次的机制，以及一项确保上限的任何重置应使其至少比平均市场利率低 5%的条款。俄罗斯表示不会接受该计划，并准备在任何情况下采取变通办法。副总理亚历山大·诺瓦**告称，他的国家可能会“减产”作为回应。周日，欧佩克还同意保持产量不变，实施上次会议上同意的 2mb/d减产。该决定反映了未来几个月供需的不可预测性。该小组计划在 2月之前举行会议。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>&nbsp; 由于天气下降提振供暖需求，欧","text":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 $F山证铁矿石(03047)$ 对疫情政策转变的预期不断上升，商品市场全面上涨。更广泛的市场情绪对美联储可能放缓加息步伐的信号做出积极反应，助长了涨势。 $恒生指数(HSI)$ 原油上周大幅上涨，因为放松 COVID-19限制增加了需求强劲的希望。石油需求受到遏制病毒的严格措施的影响，中国国家石油公司估计 2022年需求将下降 2%。周五，上海放宽了 COVID-19测试规则，加入北京、深圳、广州和其他城市的行列在最近的抗议活动后重新开放。大多数地方不需要 PCR结果就可以使用公共交通工具或共用空间。然而，随著本周欧洲对俄罗斯石油实施制裁，市场仍处于紧张状态。欧盟还同意对其石油设定 60美元/桶的价格上限，为与七国集团达成更广泛的协议铺平了道路。该价格仍高于俄罗斯乌拉尔原油目前的交易价格。该协议包括一个允许每两个月修订一次的机制，以及一项确保上限的任何重置应使其至少比平均市场利率低 5%的条款。俄罗斯表示不会接受该计划，并准备在任何情况下采取变通办法。副总理亚历山大·诺瓦**告称，他的国家可能会“减产”作为回应。周日，欧佩克还同意保持产量不变，实施上次会议上同意的 2mb/d减产。该决定反映了未来几个月供需的不可预测性。该小组计划在 2月之前举行会议。 $西方石油(OXY)$ 由于天气下降提振供暖需求，欧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2c46e06a2ebed782421fb7dac9206f","width":"554","height":"610"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629989540","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629711085,"gmtCreate":1670848003147,"gmtModify":1670848005432,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629711085","repostId":"629836510","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629836510,"gmtCreate":1670399383530,"gmtModify":1670399402681,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"春节前夕机票搜索量暴涨至三年巅峰","htmlText":"\n \n \n  12月7日，进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布，再次放宽出行层面的管控要求，#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后，携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%，其中，春节前夕（腊月二十五-除夕）的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09961\">$携程集团—S(09961)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>\n \n","listText":"12月7日，进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布，再次放宽出行层面的管控要求，#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后，携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%，其中，春节前夕（腊月二十五-除夕）的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09961\">$携程集团—S(09961)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>","text":"12月7日，进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布，再次放宽出行层面的管控要求，#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后，携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%，其中，春节前夕（腊月二十五-除夕）的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。$携程网(TCOM)$ $携程集团—S(09961)$ $美团-W(03690)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629836510","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"82d83686dc374796bd3e251455c2110c","tweetId":"629836510","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/e032cee0243791576922868327/BeFvwO3hNjgA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef79db0cd7025bb5589ba1f8b5aed4e6"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629713792,"gmtCreate":1670847975616,"gmtModify":1670847977673,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">$贵州茅台(600519)$ &nbsp;</a>酒要起来了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">$贵州茅台(600519)$ &nbsp;</a>酒要起来了","text":"$贵州茅台(600519)$ 酒要起来了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5075a21cf4c6aabb874360918191b313","width":"1080","height":"1367"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629713792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":620188235,"gmtCreate":1669545872827,"gmtModify":1669545875334,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02800\">$盈富基金(02800)$ &nbsp;</a>基金","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02800\">$盈富基金(02800)$ &nbsp;</a>基金","text":"$盈富基金(02800)$ 基金","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9444e1374da67e1409097e24bf3d39fd","width":"1080","height":"1780"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620188235","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667704769,"gmtCreate":1669117053752,"gmtModify":1669117055420,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667704769","repostId":"667566461","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667566461,"gmtCreate":1669018601054,"gmtModify":1669018654317,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"美联储官员为何频繁“鹰”派发声？","htmlText":"中期选举截止至11月20日，美国中期选举的虽然没有完全计票结束，但是结果已经确定：共和党以219:212时隔四年重新掌控众议院（高于218票），而民主党则继续锁定参议院（50个席位、加上副总统1票）。分裂国会的局面正式形成。虽然赢下众议院，但共和党没有出现“红色浪潮”（Red Wave），比市场预期更弱一些，原因可能有很多种：包括此前民调的误差、邮寄选票的影响。但结果已经如此，即在国会难以形成绝对主导。而民主党方面，很明显由于此前的疫情影响，加上选举前的高通胀压力，不仅丢掉众议院，而且拜登总统持续支持率较低。这样的结局，在经济上会有什么直接后果呢？显然，共和党在财政政策更有话语权（美国宪法规定，所有税收相关法案、拨款法案或授权开支联邦资金均应由众议院提议，而参议院无权提案）。因此美国国债的债务上限的风险也在加大，政府停摆的可能性再次增大。至当前，美国公共债务规模达到了31.3万亿美元，逼近31.4万亿美元法定债务上限。可能受影响的政府开支案包括： 2021年3月的1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案 2021年11月的5500 亿美元基建法案 还未通过的1.75万亿美元“重建美好未来法案”（Build Back Better） 2022 年8月通过的芯片与科学法案（Chips and Science Act） 通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act of 2022） 暂时被阻止的生贷款削减计划（Student Debt Relief Plan）。 受影响的行业从制造业、金融科技，到非必须消费品行业。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIA\">$道琼斯ETF(DIA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">$卡特彼勒(CAT)$</a>","listText":"中期选举截止至11月20日，美国中期选举的虽然没有完全计票结束，但是结果已经确定：共和党以219:212时隔四年重新掌控众议院（高于218票），而民主党则继续锁定参议院（50个席位、加上副总统1票）。分裂国会的局面正式形成。虽然赢下众议院，但共和党没有出现“红色浪潮”（Red Wave），比市场预期更弱一些，原因可能有很多种：包括此前民调的误差、邮寄选票的影响。但结果已经如此，即在国会难以形成绝对主导。而民主党方面，很明显由于此前的疫情影响，加上选举前的高通胀压力，不仅丢掉众议院，而且拜登总统持续支持率较低。这样的结局，在经济上会有什么直接后果呢？显然，共和党在财政政策更有话语权（美国宪法规定，所有税收相关法案、拨款法案或授权开支联邦资金均应由众议院提议，而参议院无权提案）。因此美国国债的债务上限的风险也在加大，政府停摆的可能性再次增大。至当前，美国公共债务规模达到了31.3万亿美元，逼近31.4万亿美元法定债务上限。可能受影响的政府开支案包括： 2021年3月的1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案 2021年11月的5500 亿美元基建法案 还未通过的1.75万亿美元“重建美好未来法案”（Build Back Better） 2022 年8月通过的芯片与科学法案（Chips and Science Act） 通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act of 2022） 暂时被阻止的生贷款削减计划（Student Debt Relief Plan）。 受影响的行业从制造业、金融科技，到非必须消费品行业。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIA\">$道琼斯ETF(DIA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">$卡特彼勒(CAT)$</a>","text":"中期选举截止至11月20日，美国中期选举的虽然没有完全计票结束，但是结果已经确定：共和党以219:212时隔四年重新掌控众议院（高于218票），而民主党则继续锁定参议院（50个席位、加上副总统1票）。分裂国会的局面正式形成。虽然赢下众议院，但共和党没有出现“红色浪潮”（Red Wave），比市场预期更弱一些，原因可能有很多种：包括此前民调的误差、邮寄选票的影响。但结果已经如此，即在国会难以形成绝对主导。而民主党方面，很明显由于此前的疫情影响，加上选举前的高通胀压力，不仅丢掉众议院，而且拜登总统持续支持率较低。这样的结局，在经济上会有什么直接后果呢？显然，共和党在财政政策更有话语权（美国宪法规定，所有税收相关法案、拨款法案或授权开支联邦资金均应由众议院提议，而参议院无权提案）。因此美国国债的债务上限的风险也在加大，政府停摆的可能性再次增大。至当前，美国公共债务规模达到了31.3万亿美元，逼近31.4万亿美元法定债务上限。可能受影响的政府开支案包括： 2021年3月的1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案 2021年11月的5500 亿美元基建法案 还未通过的1.75万亿美元“重建美好未来法案”（Build Back Better） 2022 年8月通过的芯片与科学法案（Chips and Science Act） 通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act of 2022） 暂时被阻止的生贷款削减计划（Student Debt Relief Plan）。 受影响的行业从制造业、金融科技，到非必须消费品行业。$道琼斯ETF(DIA)$ $卡特彼勒(CAT)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21f087ae85c3fd555fc2fc3131923e9e","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53a001a7b79d68206f1e7166e2831955","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80dd824b5cc6acce59aa5a99c7240fd3","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667566461","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667704271,"gmtCreate":1669117028394,"gmtModify":1669117030012,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667704271","repostId":"667902588","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667902588,"gmtCreate":1668485124945,"gmtModify":1668486045367,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"巴菲特抄底台积电，半导体牛市即将袭来！","htmlText":"昨日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦发布13F文件，数据显示，三季度伯克希尔大手笔抄底台积电6006万股，市值41亿美元，位列第10大持仓股： 这条消息非常劲爆，值得耐心寻味。 首先，台积电是全球顶级芯片代工巨头，典型的半导体科技股，而众所周知，巴菲特对科技股向来谨慎； 其次，巴菲特一出手，就把台积电买成了第10大重仓股，足见看好程度； 最后，台积电总部在台湾，此前屡遭市场质疑地缘政治风险，谁能想到，最为“保守”的股神竟然无惧风险，重仓持有！ 虽然巴菲特抄底台积电令市场颇为意外，但实际上，台积电的优秀很难让股神不动心！ 首先，台积电所在的行业是半导体，众所周知，半导体是当下经济的基石，无论是手机，还是汽车，抑或是未来的万物互联，都需要半导体，而且随着智能化的提升，对半导体的需求量成倍增加。 根据Infineon和Strategy Analytics的数据，传统燃油车功率半导体价值量为88美元/辆，纯电动车功率半导体价值量为459美元/辆，增幅高达421.6%。 而半导体产业链中，最困难的要属制造了。目前，最先进的5纳米工艺只有台积电和三星可以量产，后者在良率上一直不敌台积电。而2022年底，台积电将量产3纳米工艺。放眼全球，除了三星勉强能够为之一战之外，台积电打遍全球无敌手！ 代工厂的护城河主要由2部分构成，一是工艺水平，这需要科研人员不断研发，台积电2022年前三季度研发费用高达40.5亿美元，折合人民币高达286亿，如果后来者想要追赶，仅仅每年的研发投入就足以吓退众人；第二是半导体制造重资产属性，投建一座5纳米的晶圆代工厂，投资额高达100亿美元以上。随着3纳米时代来临，建厂房的费用是一笔巨资，单凭一家公司，是无法完成此壮举，只能靠举国之力！ 垄断、不可替代不正是巴菲特梦寐以求的标的吗？ 再来聊聊为什么巴菲特选择在今年三季度抄底，而且是下重注？ 首先，台积电在工艺制程上并","listText":"昨日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦发布13F文件，数据显示，三季度伯克希尔大手笔抄底台积电6006万股，市值41亿美元，位列第10大持仓股： 这条消息非常劲爆，值得耐心寻味。 首先，台积电是全球顶级芯片代工巨头，典型的半导体科技股，而众所周知，巴菲特对科技股向来谨慎； 其次，巴菲特一出手，就把台积电买成了第10大重仓股，足见看好程度； 最后，台积电总部在台湾，此前屡遭市场质疑地缘政治风险，谁能想到，最为“保守”的股神竟然无惧风险，重仓持有！ 虽然巴菲特抄底台积电令市场颇为意外，但实际上，台积电的优秀很难让股神不动心！ 首先，台积电所在的行业是半导体，众所周知，半导体是当下经济的基石，无论是手机，还是汽车，抑或是未来的万物互联，都需要半导体，而且随着智能化的提升，对半导体的需求量成倍增加。 根据Infineon和Strategy Analytics的数据，传统燃油车功率半导体价值量为88美元/辆，纯电动车功率半导体价值量为459美元/辆，增幅高达421.6%。 而半导体产业链中，最困难的要属制造了。目前，最先进的5纳米工艺只有台积电和三星可以量产，后者在良率上一直不敌台积电。而2022年底，台积电将量产3纳米工艺。放眼全球，除了三星勉强能够为之一战之外，台积电打遍全球无敌手！ 代工厂的护城河主要由2部分构成，一是工艺水平，这需要科研人员不断研发，台积电2022年前三季度研发费用高达40.5亿美元，折合人民币高达286亿，如果后来者想要追赶，仅仅每年的研发投入就足以吓退众人；第二是半导体制造重资产属性，投建一座5纳米的晶圆代工厂，投资额高达100亿美元以上。随着3纳米时代来临，建厂房的费用是一笔巨资，单凭一家公司，是无法完成此壮举，只能靠举国之力！ 垄断、不可替代不正是巴菲特梦寐以求的标的吗？ 再来聊聊为什么巴菲特选择在今年三季度抄底，而且是下重注？ 首先，台积电在工艺制程上并","text":"昨日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦发布13F文件，数据显示，三季度伯克希尔大手笔抄底台积电6006万股，市值41亿美元，位列第10大持仓股： 这条消息非常劲爆，值得耐心寻味。 首先，台积电是全球顶级芯片代工巨头，典型的半导体科技股，而众所周知，巴菲特对科技股向来谨慎； 其次，巴菲特一出手，就把台积电买成了第10大重仓股，足见看好程度； 最后，台积电总部在台湾，此前屡遭市场质疑地缘政治风险，谁能想到，最为“保守”的股神竟然无惧风险，重仓持有！ 虽然巴菲特抄底台积电令市场颇为意外，但实际上，台积电的优秀很难让股神不动心！ 首先，台积电所在的行业是半导体，众所周知，半导体是当下经济的基石，无论是手机，还是汽车，抑或是未来的万物互联，都需要半导体，而且随着智能化的提升，对半导体的需求量成倍增加。 根据Infineon和Strategy Analytics的数据，传统燃油车功率半导体价值量为88美元/辆，纯电动车功率半导体价值量为459美元/辆，增幅高达421.6%。 而半导体产业链中，最困难的要属制造了。目前，最先进的5纳米工艺只有台积电和三星可以量产，后者在良率上一直不敌台积电。而2022年底，台积电将量产3纳米工艺。放眼全球，除了三星勉强能够为之一战之外，台积电打遍全球无敌手！ 代工厂的护城河主要由2部分构成，一是工艺水平，这需要科研人员不断研发，台积电2022年前三季度研发费用高达40.5亿美元，折合人民币高达286亿，如果后来者想要追赶，仅仅每年的研发投入就足以吓退众人；第二是半导体制造重资产属性，投建一座5纳米的晶圆代工厂，投资额高达100亿美元以上。随着3纳米时代来临，建厂房的费用是一笔巨资，单凭一家公司，是无法完成此壮举，只能靠举国之力！ 垄断、不可替代不正是巴菲特梦寐以求的标的吗？ 再来聊聊为什么巴菲特选择在今年三季度抄底，而且是下重注？ 首先，台积电在工艺制程上并","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f40b24f5e1a929754b16b3474694bd01","width":"632","height":"288"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39808e75ad2012d9e13f4ec19177a82","width":"632","height":"421"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/314b58a59da4a9c9a703c755a1abe97f","width":"632","height":"194"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667902588","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667704662,"gmtCreate":1669117020856,"gmtModify":1669117022576,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667704662","repostId":"667375756","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667375756,"gmtCreate":1668599023475,"gmtModify":1668599159252,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯的Q3：超预期的降本增效，以及派发美团的影响","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> Q3财报显示了较强的“降本增效”成果。虽然收入略微不及预期，但利润方面远超市场预期，也提高了估值基础。Q3整体收入1400.93亿元，同比下降2%，略微不及市场预期的1414亿元，每股可比收益为3.38元，同比增长1.6%，终止了前三个季度的下滑趋势，也高于市场预期的3.06元。运营数据方面，微信用户13.09亿，高于市场预期的13.03亿，同时QQ的活跃用户同比增长0.12%达到5.74亿，也是自2019年1月以来首次同比上升。娱乐业务的腾讯视频用户还是维持在1.2亿，腾讯并没有公布更详细的数字，因此用户量也是维持在这个水平，略微不及预期的1.26亿。从分类业务来看，VAS（增值服务）收入727.3亿元，同比减少3.29%，略低于预期的731.9亿元。游戏业务429亿元，同比减少4.5%，低于市场预期的434亿元，其中国内游戏312亿元，低于市场预期的319亿元，海外游戏收入117亿元，同比增长3.54%，高于市场预期的109亿元。从另一个维度看，手游业务收入410亿元，同比减少3.5%，连续三个季度下降，而PC端云游戏收入117亿元，与去年同期持平。社媒业务营收298亿元，同比减少1.65%，略高于市场预期的296亿元。在线广告业务收入214亿元，同比下降4.7%，依然较为疲软，但高于市场预期的203.4亿元，同时，金融科技和企业服务部门收入448亿元，同比增长3.5%，高于上个季度。支出方面，营收成本781亿元，同比下降2%，因此毛利率保持在44.2%的水平，是去年Q3以来的新高。行政费用265亿元，同比增长11%，但销售费用同比下降32%，因此可比息税前利润为516亿元，远远高于市场预期的354亿元。游戏Q3的游戏业务是东方不亮东南方亮。海外游戏的收入原本市","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> Q3财报显示了较强的“降本增效”成果。虽然收入略微不及预期，但利润方面远超市场预期，也提高了估值基础。Q3整体收入1400.93亿元，同比下降2%，略微不及市场预期的1414亿元，每股可比收益为3.38元，同比增长1.6%，终止了前三个季度的下滑趋势，也高于市场预期的3.06元。运营数据方面，微信用户13.09亿，高于市场预期的13.03亿，同时QQ的活跃用户同比增长0.12%达到5.74亿，也是自2019年1月以来首次同比上升。娱乐业务的腾讯视频用户还是维持在1.2亿，腾讯并没有公布更详细的数字，因此用户量也是维持在这个水平，略微不及预期的1.26亿。从分类业务来看，VAS（增值服务）收入727.3亿元，同比减少3.29%，略低于预期的731.9亿元。游戏业务429亿元，同比减少4.5%，低于市场预期的434亿元，其中国内游戏312亿元，低于市场预期的319亿元，海外游戏收入117亿元，同比增长3.54%，高于市场预期的109亿元。从另一个维度看，手游业务收入410亿元，同比减少3.5%，连续三个季度下降，而PC端云游戏收入117亿元，与去年同期持平。社媒业务营收298亿元，同比减少1.65%，略高于市场预期的296亿元。在线广告业务收入214亿元，同比下降4.7%，依然较为疲软，但高于市场预期的203.4亿元，同时，金融科技和企业服务部门收入448亿元，同比增长3.5%，高于上个季度。支出方面，营收成本781亿元，同比下降2%，因此毛利率保持在44.2%的水平，是去年Q3以来的新高。行政费用265亿元，同比增长11%，但销售费用同比下降32%，因此可比息税前利润为516亿元，远远高于市场预期的354亿元。游戏Q3的游戏业务是东方不亮东南方亮。海外游戏的收入原本市","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ Q3财报显示了较强的“降本增效”成果。虽然收入略微不及预期，但利润方面远超市场预期，也提高了估值基础。Q3整体收入1400.93亿元，同比下降2%，略微不及市场预期的1414亿元，每股可比收益为3.38元，同比增长1.6%，终止了前三个季度的下滑趋势，也高于市场预期的3.06元。运营数据方面，微信用户13.09亿，高于市场预期的13.03亿，同时QQ的活跃用户同比增长0.12%达到5.74亿，也是自2019年1月以来首次同比上升。娱乐业务的腾讯视频用户还是维持在1.2亿，腾讯并没有公布更详细的数字，因此用户量也是维持在这个水平，略微不及预期的1.26亿。从分类业务来看，VAS（增值服务）收入727.3亿元，同比减少3.29%，略低于预期的731.9亿元。游戏业务429亿元，同比减少4.5%，低于市场预期的434亿元，其中国内游戏312亿元，低于市场预期的319亿元，海外游戏收入117亿元，同比增长3.54%，高于市场预期的109亿元。从另一个维度看，手游业务收入410亿元，同比减少3.5%，连续三个季度下降，而PC端云游戏收入117亿元，与去年同期持平。社媒业务营收298亿元，同比减少1.65%，略高于市场预期的296亿元。在线广告业务收入214亿元，同比下降4.7%，依然较为疲软，但高于市场预期的203.4亿元，同时，金融科技和企业服务部门收入448亿元，同比增长3.5%，高于上个季度。支出方面，营收成本781亿元，同比下降2%，因此毛利率保持在44.2%的水平，是去年Q3以来的新高。行政费用265亿元，同比增长11%，但销售费用同比下降32%，因此可比息税前利润为516亿元，远远高于市场预期的354亿元。游戏Q3的游戏业务是东方不亮东南方亮。海外游戏的收入原本市","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fcd77d8f7427fd683e0a70c7107474c","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeae32a14c77751a585ac0b8aa9d8275","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22682e669b1c4babab9aafdde86b5f11","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667375756","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667704871,"gmtCreate":1669117012693,"gmtModify":1669117014406,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667704871","repostId":"664725752","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":664725752,"gmtCreate":1668394398776,"gmtModify":1668394760268,"author":{"id":"4101854786458470","authorId":"4101854786458470","name":"海银控股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c7935f0b0765e512aef52d486f545e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"海银受邀德意志银行全球投资人大会  寻觅全球投资策略或机遇","htmlText":"德意志银行被誉为全球八大知名投行之一，在世界范围内拥有商业银行和投资银行等业务，其举办的全球投资人大会旨在向全球投资者介绍优秀上市公司(ADR)，以提供全球化视角下的交流平台，不断增长的中国市场和财富管理行业逐渐吸引了海外投资人关注和研究，因此作为立足于中国大陆地区的独立财富管理机构——海银控股，再次受邀参加德意志银行全球投资者大会。 作为赴美上市的中资独立财富管理机构，海银控股经历了数次经济周期考验，凭借稳健合规的经营理念，获得了客户信赖，同时助力了行业发展。海银控股2022财年业绩亮眼，净收入从2021财年的18.344 亿元增长5.9%至19.421 亿元；净利润2.36亿元，同比增长13.6%；营业利润率从2021财年的15.4%提升至2022财年的16.8%；客户总数由2021年的12.7万人增加至今年的14.1万人，同比增长10.8%；活跃客户数量从2021年的3.8万人增加至4.37万人，同比增长15.1%。凭借“财富管理”和“健康管理”双轮驱动，打造基于客户全生命周期的综合服务体系，为客户提供多元化、一站式综合服务，致力于成为财富管理行业领跑者。 26日港交所宣布暂停恒生指数期货等指数期货的市场波动条件机制，为市场的企稳创造出有利的条件。短期来看，美联储货币政策走向及中美关系等因素仍有可能对海外中概股价格和估值水平造成扰动。中长期来看，价格的中枢由行业未来发展前景和上市公司业绩基本面决定。 中概股震荡行情不确定，风波过后，是底部反转还是情绪狂欢？接下来的经济环境会有哪些改变？德意志银行全球投资者大会再次开启，接下来资本市场对哪些板块会更青睐？ 【活动参与方式】 1.&nbsp;关注<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4101854786458470\">@海银控股</a>&nbsp;老虎号； 2.&amp;nbs","listText":"德意志银行被誉为全球八大知名投行之一，在世界范围内拥有商业银行和投资银行等业务，其举办的全球投资人大会旨在向全球投资者介绍优秀上市公司(ADR)，以提供全球化视角下的交流平台，不断增长的中国市场和财富管理行业逐渐吸引了海外投资人关注和研究，因此作为立足于中国大陆地区的独立财富管理机构——海银控股，再次受邀参加德意志银行全球投资者大会。 作为赴美上市的中资独立财富管理机构，海银控股经历了数次经济周期考验，凭借稳健合规的经营理念，获得了客户信赖，同时助力了行业发展。海银控股2022财年业绩亮眼，净收入从2021财年的18.344 亿元增长5.9%至19.421 亿元；净利润2.36亿元，同比增长13.6%；营业利润率从2021财年的15.4%提升至2022财年的16.8%；客户总数由2021年的12.7万人增加至今年的14.1万人，同比增长10.8%；活跃客户数量从2021年的3.8万人增加至4.37万人，同比增长15.1%。凭借“财富管理”和“健康管理”双轮驱动，打造基于客户全生命周期的综合服务体系，为客户提供多元化、一站式综合服务，致力于成为财富管理行业领跑者。 26日港交所宣布暂停恒生指数期货等指数期货的市场波动条件机制，为市场的企稳创造出有利的条件。短期来看，美联储货币政策走向及中美关系等因素仍有可能对海外中概股价格和估值水平造成扰动。中长期来看，价格的中枢由行业未来发展前景和上市公司业绩基本面决定。 中概股震荡行情不确定，风波过后，是底部反转还是情绪狂欢？接下来的经济环境会有哪些改变？德意志银行全球投资者大会再次开启，接下来资本市场对哪些板块会更青睐？ 【活动参与方式】 1.&nbsp;关注<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4101854786458470\">@海银控股</a>&nbsp;老虎号； 2.&amp;nbs","text":"德意志银行被誉为全球八大知名投行之一，在世界范围内拥有商业银行和投资银行等业务，其举办的全球投资人大会旨在向全球投资者介绍优秀上市公司(ADR)，以提供全球化视角下的交流平台，不断增长的中国市场和财富管理行业逐渐吸引了海外投资人关注和研究，因此作为立足于中国大陆地区的独立财富管理机构——海银控股，再次受邀参加德意志银行全球投资者大会。 作为赴美上市的中资独立财富管理机构，海银控股经历了数次经济周期考验，凭借稳健合规的经营理念，获得了客户信赖，同时助力了行业发展。海银控股2022财年业绩亮眼，净收入从2021财年的18.344 亿元增长5.9%至19.421 亿元；净利润2.36亿元，同比增长13.6%；营业利润率从2021财年的15.4%提升至2022财年的16.8%；客户总数由2021年的12.7万人增加至今年的14.1万人，同比增长10.8%；活跃客户数量从2021年的3.8万人增加至4.37万人，同比增长15.1%。凭借“财富管理”和“健康管理”双轮驱动，打造基于客户全生命周期的综合服务体系，为客户提供多元化、一站式综合服务，致力于成为财富管理行业领跑者。 26日港交所宣布暂停恒生指数期货等指数期货的市场波动条件机制，为市场的企稳创造出有利的条件。短期来看，美联储货币政策走向及中美关系等因素仍有可能对海外中概股价格和估值水平造成扰动。中长期来看，价格的中枢由行业未来发展前景和上市公司业绩基本面决定。 中概股震荡行情不确定，风波过后，是底部反转还是情绪狂欢？接下来的经济环境会有哪些改变？德意志银行全球投资者大会再次开启，接下来资本市场对哪些板块会更青睐？ 【活动参与方式】 1. 关注@海银控股 老虎号； 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关于巴菲特卖出比亚迪H股的消息，之前已经有一些传闻，但没过多久的时间，港交所的公告印证了巴菲特卖出比亚迪的消息。 据了解，8月30日，港交所显示巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在8月24日出售133万股的比亚迪H股。从具体信息来看，出售均价为277.1016港元，但目前伯克希尔哈撒韦仍然持有比亚迪2.18亿股，占已发行的有投票权的比例降低至19.92%。 虽然此次巴菲特出售比亚迪的股份数量不多，但却给了市场带来了不少的猜测。作为持股比亚迪14年之久的巴菲特，却选择了首次出售，但此次获利已经超过了33倍，恰恰展现出当年股神的投资智慧。 巴菲特开始卖出比亚迪，是否意味着比亚迪已经见顶了？其实，投资者也不必过度担心。 从巴菲特的角度出发，卖出比亚迪股份显然不是差钱，因为他旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司拥有千亿美元的现金储备，并不会差这些钱。不过，在比亚迪股价大幅上涨之后，巴菲特开始进行卖出操作，或者认为目前比亚迪的估值偏高，或者已经超出了他的承受范围。但是，这也只是市场的猜想，巴菲特卖出比亚迪的原因，也许只有巴菲特才清楚。 二十年前，巴菲特曾经投资中石油港股股票，当时巴菲特购入的价位非常低，估值也是比较便宜。自巴菲特买入一段时间之后，却很快成为了中石油的前几大股东。 但是，过了几年时间，遇到了2007年股价的大幅上涨，巴菲特却以相对高价抛售中石油股票，收获了巨额利润。在巴菲特抛售中石油之后，中石油还一度出现加速上涨的走势，但经过了2008年的冲击之后，中石油股票很快跌入低谷，巴菲特提前预判了风险，并提前锁定利润离场。 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昨天大跌主要受到英伟达芯片事件的影响，公司称收到美国官方通知，若对中国（含中国香港）和俄罗斯的客户出口两款高端GPU芯片——A100和H100，需要新的出口许可。英伟达表示，其季度销售额可能会因限制销售损失多达4亿美元。AMD同样也收到了限制高端芯片出口的通知。 不过今天盘前又有了最新消息，英伟达表示，美国政府已授权出口、再出口和国内转让，以继续开发H100集成电路。该授权还允许公司在2023年3月1日前为A100 GPU的美国客户提供必要的出口支持。 我劝大家不要因为这件事对于政策走向产生过度恐慌。对股市走势的影响，类比的话，可以参考6月底那些财报预警披露的影响，如果这两晚止跌就说明没事。 2、期权市场情况：昨晚震荡让人产生恐慌的另一个原因是大家查看期权大单会发现多了很多千亿级别的put订单。很多股票的call&nbsp;put都创了新低，说明周三期权交易中put成交量远大于call，比如亚马逊，SHOP，AMZN，TSLA，以及风口浪尖的NVDA如果对大单一知半解确实会恐慌，我不是说了大单金额越大代表了确定性越高吗？put行权价越价内，代表看空越明确？ 但问题是： 到底是什么方向的确定性越高？ 什么策略中，put越价内看空越明确？ 这是要搞懂的两个问题，这两个问题明白了你的期权大单也就入门了。 昨天的大单跟之前苹果大单有一个明确的不同是，这些put都是成对出现的，同一时间下单的put可以找到两对或者两对以上。那么这种情况下我们默认交易者做了一组put价差策略。 而这些组put价差策略，put全部都在价内。我们知道价差策略有牛市策略和熊市策略，牛市看不跌，熊市看不涨，所以从put下单金额上，我们并不能直接判断","listText":"1、昨天写完文章后看了一眼，市场行情还行，还感慨这次大单很及时，跟之前不一样买完第二天反弹了，结果今天早上一看，嗯，还是跟前两周见顶时一样，市场还要再震荡两天。 昨天大跌主要受到英伟达芯片事件的影响，公司称收到美国官方通知，若对中国（含中国香港）和俄罗斯的客户出口两款高端GPU芯片——A100和H100，需要新的出口许可。英伟达表示，其季度销售额可能会因限制销售损失多达4亿美元。AMD同样也收到了限制高端芯片出口的通知。 不过今天盘前又有了最新消息，英伟达表示，美国政府已授权出口、再出口和国内转让，以继续开发H100集成电路。该授权还允许公司在2023年3月1日前为A100 GPU的美国客户提供必要的出口支持。 我劝大家不要因为这件事对于政策走向产生过度恐慌。对股市走势的影响，类比的话，可以参考6月底那些财报预警披露的影响，如果这两晚止跌就说明没事。 2、期权市场情况：昨晚震荡让人产生恐慌的另一个原因是大家查看期权大单会发现多了很多千亿级别的put订单。很多股票的call&nbsp;put都创了新低，说明周三期权交易中put成交量远大于call，比如亚马逊，SHOP，AMZN，TSLA，以及风口浪尖的NVDA如果对大单一知半解确实会恐慌，我不是说了大单金额越大代表了确定性越高吗？put行权价越价内，代表看空越明确？ 但问题是： 到底是什么方向的确定性越高？ 什么策略中，put越价内看空越明确？ 这是要搞懂的两个问题，这两个问题明白了你的期权大单也就入门了。 昨天的大单跟之前苹果大单有一个明确的不同是，这些put都是成对出现的，同一时间下单的put可以找到两对或者两对以上。那么这种情况下我们默认交易者做了一组put价差策略。 而这些组put价差策略，put全部都在价内。我们知道价差策略有牛市策略和熊市策略，牛市看不跌，熊市看不涨，所以从put下单金额上，我们并不能直接判断","text":"1、昨天写完文章后看了一眼，市场行情还行，还感慨这次大单很及时，跟之前不一样买完第二天反弹了，结果今天早上一看，嗯，还是跟前两周见顶时一样，市场还要再震荡两天。 昨天大跌主要受到英伟达芯片事件的影响，公司称收到美国官方通知，若对中国（含中国香港）和俄罗斯的客户出口两款高端GPU芯片——A100和H100，需要新的出口许可。英伟达表示，其季度销售额可能会因限制销售损失多达4亿美元。AMD同样也收到了限制高端芯片出口的通知。 不过今天盘前又有了最新消息，英伟达表示，美国政府已授权出口、再出口和国内转让，以继续开发H100集成电路。该授权还允许公司在2023年3月1日前为A100 GPU的美国客户提供必要的出口支持。 我劝大家不要因为这件事对于政策走向产生过度恐慌。对股市走势的影响，类比的话，可以参考6月底那些财报预警披露的影响，如果这两晚止跌就说明没事。 2、期权市场情况：昨晚震荡让人产生恐慌的另一个原因是大家查看期权大单会发现多了很多千亿级别的put订单。很多股票的call put都创了新低，说明周三期权交易中put成交量远大于call，比如亚马逊，SHOP，AMZN，TSLA，以及风口浪尖的NVDA如果对大单一知半解确实会恐慌，我不是说了大单金额越大代表了确定性越高吗？put行权价越价内，代表看空越明确？ 但问题是： 到底是什么方向的确定性越高？ 什么策略中，put越价内看空越明确？ 这是要搞懂的两个问题，这两个问题明白了你的期权大单也就入门了。 昨天的大单跟之前苹果大单有一个明确的不同是，这些put都是成对出现的，同一时间下单的put可以找到两对或者两对以上。那么这种情况下我们默认交易者做了一组put价差策略。 而这些组put价差策略，put全部都在价内。我们知道价差策略有牛市策略和熊市策略，牛市看不跌，熊市看不涨，所以从put下单金额上，我们并不能直接判断","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a06fcc57d5e799cadf226a3e779ce74f","width":"1170","height":"1502"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a2ff9075217e48d0572686f0f97ac22","width":"1170","height":"1523"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcde5914598d287a481a9fd04a0b811d","width":"1170","height":"1502"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669926239","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669257394,"gmtCreate":1662472412218,"gmtModify":1662472412986,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669257394","repostId":"669090721","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":669090721,"gmtCreate":1661955363043,"gmtModify":1661983196349,"author":{"id":"3527667591235607","authorId":"3527667591235607","name":"OptionPlus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8009c23927adcf8b5e1e1d101178392","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"简单说一说苹果期权操作","htmlText":"<a 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Put，ps我觉得150有点风险，145更安全。我的逻辑：苹果iPhone14正式开卖是15日，我觉得第一批发售数据出来也要过几天，所以9月16日安全。苹果有先例如果提前涨了会在发布会时候边开边跌，发布会后有会到一个大致区间，但不会跌太多，需要等数据出来才会真正选择方向。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873ab66a9bf74e4308147ec2c3aee19d","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/841cf403c80811585c9952f352d860f1","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83434aa1bc4a40e08a11aaeb76f11551","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669090721","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":869437345,"gmtCreate":1632315482787,"gmtModify":1632315482787,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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