周佐舜的个人主页 - 老虎社区

周佐舜

周佐舜

干了15年品牌连锁行业，开出1500多家门店，跨行炒股玩玩！

IP属地：湖北

14关注

1粉丝

1主题

0勋章

10-26

$小米集团-W(01810)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $五粮液(000858)$

AI竞赛愈发激烈，消息称谷歌计划12月发布Gemini 2.0模型

10-03

S@小鹏汽车 😞

港股异动 | 恒大汽车放量拉升逾58% 此前一度跌超8%

09-25

$农夫山泉(09633)$ 看多

09-13

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$

05-28

$理想汽车-W(02015)$

05-18

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$

05-17

$HYGIEIA GROUP(01650)$

05-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

04-25

$HYGIEIA GROUP(01650)$ 看好便利店行业

2023-10-05

鲁

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-07-12

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$

2023-04-26

马云看到估计哭晕在厕所，投资了上百亿，搞了十几年却被秀生活给抢先一步！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-04-23

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

【互联网券商】老虎国际推TigerGPT　使用OpenAI技术、用户可登记轮候试用

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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添加摄像 / 视觉功能，谷歌如何协调这两项发布仍待观察。</p><p>不过需要注意的是，阿尔特曼昨天在𝕏上称有关“下一代模型”的报道是假消息：<strong>fake news out of control（假消息失控了）</strong>。</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI竞赛愈发激烈，消息称谷歌计划12月发布Gemini 2.0模型</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI竞赛愈发激烈，消息称谷歌计划12月发布Gemini 2.0模型\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-26 10:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8dy8ebNGnHM><strong>IT之家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IT之家 10 月 26 日消息，The Verge 今天凌晨报道称，OpenAI“正计划”在 12 月推出其下一代旗舰 AI 模型的同时，消息人士称谷歌也将在当月发布下一代的 Gemini 2.0 模型，AI 竞赛正随着冬季的临近而愈发激烈。据悉，OpenAI 的 CEO 阿尔特曼正逐步推出 GPT-4 的升级版本，首批使用者将是其商业合作伙伴；谷歌计划直接广泛发布 Gemini 的新版本。然而...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8dy8ebNGnHM\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) 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😞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356087174623552","repostId":"2472594459","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2472594459","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1727852127,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2472594459?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-02 14:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"港股异动 | 恒大汽车放量拉升逾58% 此前一度跌超8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2472594459","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，恒大汽车(00708)放量拉升逾58%，此前曾跌超8%。截至发稿，涨50.68%，报0.55港元，成交额4964.32万港元。消息面上，今年上半年，恒大汽车实现收入3837.7万元，同比减少75.17%；亏损约202.55亿元，同比扩大1.95倍。面对巨大债务及经营压力，恒大汽车一度谋求引入第三方买方出售相关股份，从而获得资金支持。但时隔逾3个月，恒大汽车引入战略投资者事宜至今仍未有实质性进展。值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道称，恒大许家印已被移送至深圳，配合恒大清算。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>(00708)放量拉升逾58%，此前曾跌超8%。截至发稿，涨50.68%，报0.55港元，成交额4964.32万港元。</p><p>消息面上，今年上半年，恒大汽车实现收入3837.7万元，同比减少75.17%；亏损约202.55亿元，同比扩大1.95倍。面对巨大债务及经营压力，恒大汽车一度谋求引入第三方买方出售相关股份，从而获得资金支持。但时隔逾3个月，恒大汽车引入战略投资者事宜至今仍未有实质性进展。值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道称，恒大许家印已被移送至深圳，配合恒大清算。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股异动 | 恒大汽车放量拉升逾58% 此前一度跌超8%</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1189687.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d663cec1bf148bc063b2f6e74297ca","relate_stocks":{"BK1539":"汽车股","BK1209":"保健护理机构","00708":"恒大汽车","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1598":"恒大概念","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1189687.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2472594459","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，恒大汽车(00708)放量拉升逾58%，此前曾跌超8%。截至发稿，涨50.68%，报0.55港元，成交额4964.32万港元。消息面上，今年上半年，恒大汽车实现收入3837.7万元，同比减少75.17%；亏损约202.55亿元，同比扩大1.95倍。面对巨大债务及经营压力，恒大汽车一度谋求引入第三方买方出售相关股份，从而获得资金支持。但时隔逾3个月，恒大汽车引入战略投资者事宜至今仍未有实质性进展。值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道称，恒大许家印已被移送至深圳，配合恒大清算。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353031311188304,"gmtCreate":1727229279159,"gmtModify":1727229280194,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Future(FFIE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197145249501344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":658884494,"gmtCreate":1682524280518,"gmtModify":1682524797104,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"马云看到估计哭晕在厕所，投资了上百亿，搞了十几年却被秀生活给抢先一步！","listText":"马云看到估计哭晕在厕所，投资了上百亿，搞了十几年却被秀生活给抢先一步！","text":"马云看到估计哭晕在厕所，投资了上百亿，搞了十几年却被秀生活给抢先一步！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658884494","repostId":"2330139038","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":658098435,"gmtCreate":1682222541428,"gmtModify":1682223215629,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658098435","repostId":"2326605123","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2326605123","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1681201740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2326605123?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-11 16:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"【互联网券商】老虎国际推TigerGPT　使用OpenAI技术、用户可登记轮候试用","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2326605123","media":"香港经济日报","summary":"中资互联网券商老虎国际宣布推出人工智能投资助手—TigerGPT，属于运用老虎国际的金融数据库及OpenAI技术开发的文本生成式AI聊天机器人，将内置于其交易平台Tiger Trade。老虎国际表示，TigerGPT目前正处于用户测试阶段，会邀请指定市场的用户参与，用户可登记进入轮候名单。据介绍，TigerGPT初期会以繁体中文、简体中文及英文版本为基础，未来会新增支援粤语以至其他语言，配合公司。公司续指，TigerGPT每日持续接受训练，吸收最新的市场资讯，确保互动内容精准扼要。","content":"<div>\n<p>中资互联网券商老虎国际（美：TIGR）宣布推出人工智能（AI）投资助手—TigerGPT，属于运用老虎国际的金融数据库及OpenAI技术开发的文本生成式AI聊天机器人，将内置于其交易平台Tiger Trade。老虎国际表示，TigerGPT目前正处于用户测试阶段，会邀请指定市场的用户参与，用户可登记进入轮候名单。据介绍，TigerGPT初期会以繁体中文、简体中文及英文版本为基础，未来会新增支援粤语...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://inews.hket.com/article/3502492/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"hket_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://inews.hket.com/article/3502492/><strong>香港经济日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中资互联网券商老虎国际（美：TIGR）宣布推出人工智能（AI）投资助手—TigerGPT，属于运用老虎国际的金融数据库及OpenAI技术开发的文本生成式AI聊天机器人，将内置于其交易平台Tiger Trade。老虎国际表示，TigerGPT目前正处于用户测试阶段，会邀请指定市场的用户参与，用户可登记进入轮候名单。据介绍，TigerGPT初期会以繁体中文、简体中文及英文版本为基础，未来会新增支援粤语...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://inews.hket.com/article/3502492/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4563":"昨日强势股","TIGR":"老虎证券","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://inews.hket.com/article/3502492/","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2326605123","content_text":"中资互联网券商老虎国际（美：TIGR）宣布推出人工智能（AI）投资助手—TigerGPT，属于运用老虎国际的金融数据库及OpenAI技术开发的文本生成式AI聊天机器人，将内置于其交易平台Tiger Trade。老虎国际表示，TigerGPT目前正处于用户测试阶段，会邀请指定市场的用户参与，用户可登记进入轮候名单。据介绍，TigerGPT初期会以繁体中文、简体中文及英文版本为基础，未来会新增支援粤语以至其他语言，配合公司。老虎国际指，新服务利用自身数据库以及多个付费平台的内容，为用户提供及时及资讯性的答案，能覆盖上市公司背景及数据、海量金融知识及投资者教育内容、第三方市场及股票观点等，以对话形式在数秒内为用户解答投资问题。公司续指，TigerGPT每日持续接受训练，吸收最新的市场资讯，确保互动内容精准扼要。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":658884494,"gmtCreate":1682524280518,"gmtModify":1682524797104,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"马云看到估计哭晕在厕所，投资了上百亿，搞了十几年却被秀生活给抢先一步！","listText":"马云看到估计哭晕在厕所，投资了上百亿，搞了十几年却被秀生活给抢先一步！","text":"马云看到估计哭晕在厕所，投资了上百亿，搞了十几年却被秀生活给抢先一步！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658884494","repostId":"2330139038","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2330139038","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1682519475,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2330139038?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-26 22:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"与全球最大家电企业签下10万台订单，天彩控股(03882)一纸公告发布后，剑指中国自动售货机行业龙头","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2330139038","media":"智通财经网","summary":"天彩控股非全资附属公司与世界五百强企业、全球最大的家用电器公司之一的附属公司签订《战略合作协议》，向其订购10万台自动售货机。","content":"<html><body><div> <p>一纸公告，正试图撬动国内自动售货机二十多年来的行业格局。</p><p>智通财经APP了解到，04月26日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03882\">天彩控股</a>(03882)发布公告：武汉秀生活便利店有限公司(武汉秀生活)，天彩控股非全资附属公司与世界五百强企业、全球最大的家用电器公司之一的附属公司签订《战略合作协议》。根据合作协议，武汉秀生活向其订购10万台自动售货机。不久前，天彩控股曾于3月发布一则与中国最大的物业公司之一企业签订自助售货机合作合约的公告，第一阶段涉及自助售货机安装量2万台。而此次合作所涉及的10万台订购量，在行业内是一个不小的数字。</p><p>要知道，以目前行业内第一名的友宝自动售货机点位计算，截至2022年9月30日，友宝于全国的点位规模为8.76万个，从成立之初发展到如今的近9万台规模，友宝用了11年。而秀生活作为一家于去年5月才成立的公司，发展速度卓而出群。</p><p>2022年11月，凭借完成对秀生活控股，天彩控股成功成为率先登录二级市场的自动售货机运营商。在短短两个月时间内，天彩控股两则公告的接连发布大有叫阵行业龙头之势。</p><p>如今，这一“自动售货机第一股”与全球五百强、全球最大的家电企业达成深度合作。尽管天彩控股并未透露是与哪一家，能称之为世界五百强、全球最大家电企业的企业只有3家分别为海尔、格力和美的。其中格力并没有介入自动售货机业务，只有海尔和美的有相关业务，海尔只能作为全球最大的冰箱企业之一并不能称之为全球最大的家电企业，这样看来公告中所指的世界五百强、全球最大家电企业大概率就是美的。根据相关行业分析，这势必将对当前国内的自动售货机行业格局带来改变。</p><p>运营新解法——规模超行业第一，10万台订单底气何在?</p><p>根据弗若斯特沙利文数据显示，2021年，中国内地自动售货机的保有量为92.45万台。其中，作为当前的自助售货机运营商龙头，友宝于2022年9月在全国的点位规模约为8.76万个;2021年数据，业内前两大参与者的合共点位规模约为13.5万个，此次天彩控股合作涉及的自动售货机规模约接近当前市场前一、二名的总和。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230426/1682519734972538.jpg?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1682519734972538.jpg\"/></p><p>可以预见，若天彩控股此次合作的10万台订单全面铺开，全国自助售货机保有量将因此而有里程碑式的提升;而作为行业的一个新进入者，天彩控股也大概率将成为行业内的新晋龙头公司。</p><p>在附属公司秀生活成立仅短短不到一年时间内，便签下如此大规模的订单，为何能有这么大的底气?或许能从其公开信息中显露出冰山一角的发展模式中略窥一二。</p><p>在当前主流的自动售货机运营商发展模式中，几个面临较大开支的环节对于企业能否实现盈利至关重要，更决定了运营商的业务规模和发展质量。</p><p>据智通财经APP了解到，在自动售货机生意中，几个开支较大的环节分别是：<strong>1.机器采购;2.点位开拓;3.运营维护;4.场地费</strong>。对于运营商而言，覆盖点位的能力很关键，而要更好地盈利，则要在上面各个环节用更低的成本快速占领市场。</p><p>以友宝的发展路径为例，成立之初，友宝运营拓展以重资产的自营模式为主，彼时每台自动售货机的购置成本约为2-3万元，这样高度依赖资金的模式自然难以进行大规模扩张。2015年，公司转而主推加盟的模式，如今发展为其招股书中提到的“点位合伙人”模式。</p><p>在合伙人模式下，友宝的机器采购、点位开发、场地费成本转嫁由点位合伙人、附属点位经销商承担，点位运营依然由友宝负责。而作为代价，友宝则需与上述参与者进行商品销售分成，同时有时也需要就场地费为合伙人先行垫款。</p><p>而在智通财经APP看来，天彩控股之所以有底气能与美的签下这么大规模的订单，则在于其<strong>在这几个关键的环节找到了新的解法</strong>，相较友宝的传统发展模式大大节省了成本，从而得以<strong>以轻资产的模式实现快速扩张</strong>。</p><p>根据天彩控股此前发布的公告，秀生活与中国最大的物业公司之一签订合作协议，并在中国全国范围内开展广泛业务合作。也就是说，公司通过与集团企业达成合作，一举解决了点位拓展的高成本问题，省去了大量点位拓展团队开支，以低成本方式依托集团企业的全国网络实现快速扩张。</p><p>与此同时，在与集团规模化的合作模式下，场地费较传统零散拓张的模式更低，点位也相对更为集中，运营及维护的效率更高，能够以更少的人员覆盖更多点位，运输成本也相对更低。<strong>在集团合作模式下，天彩控股在点位开发、运营维护、场地费等环节较以往模式节省大量成本。</strong></p><p>另一方面，由于与这次签约，公司点位覆盖具确定性，且成规模。据天彩控股在公告中透露，秀生活已获得头部食品饮料品牌商<strong>以免费赞助的形式</strong>提供相当数量的人工智能售货机;目前，秀生活已获得了三家企业免费提供的第三代人工智能售货机，数量为3万台。这便为公司在机器采购环节又节省了一大笔开支，也是天彩控股轻资产发展模式的核心所在。</p><p>通过在机器采购、点位开拓、运营维护、场地费等各个环节实现低成本扩张，秀生活得以在在自动售货机生意中实现真正的轻资产发展模式。换句话说，其正通过模式创新的方式，在<strong>自动售货机领域里掀起一股“增长黑客”浪潮</strong>，这便或是其签下10万台机器订单的底气所在。</p><p>剑指行业龙头位置，“鲇鱼效应”日渐显现</p><p>若对天彩控股上述的轻资产模式创新进行梳理可以发现，与大型集团进行规模化合作，是该模式得以持续运转的关键核心。因此，掌握与大型集团企业合作的渠道，便掌握了该发展路径模式的护城河。</p><p>据天彩控股此前在公告中提到，秀生活正与中国某些知名企业集团就在其于中国各地营运及管理的物业及场所放置自动售货机进行洽谈及讨论;董事认为目标公司业务的市场拓展及渗透潜力巨大，因此放置的人工智能自动售货机数量<strong>可能在未来数年呈指数增长</strong>。</p><p>以此为背景回顾此次10W台订单的合作，不妨可以做一个大胆猜想，天彩控股旗下的秀生活有如此底气，一口气签下远超当下行业第一自助售货机保有量水平规模的订单，其未来潜在的点位订单或将远不止当前公布的2W台：</p><p><strong>其一</strong>，据天彩控股已公布的公告，目前设置2W台自动售货机的合作仅为第一阶段，未来，不排除双方展开第二甚至更多阶段的合作。而据公司在公告中提到，与秀生活签约的合作方为中国最大的物业管理公司之一，双方目前第一阶段的合作范围仅限北京、上海、广州、重庆、深圳等11个城市，其未来远具备更多进一步合作的空间。</p><p><strong>其二</strong>，正如此前在公告中提及，正在进行放置自动售货机洽谈及讨论的企业集团不止一家。另据接触到天彩控股的投行人士透露，秀生活目前还与多家物业企业洽商合作，“多为物业10强、20强”。可以预测，随着秀生活与这一签约物企第一阶段合作落地，形成示范效应，公司后续还将有望迎来与更多大型集团企业的合作，复制上述模式，形成真正的指数级增长。</p><p>据弗若斯特沙利文报告，2021年，内地自动售货机的数量已达92.45万台，2016-2021年复合年增长率约为30.3%，对比欧美、日本等，内地2021年的自动售货机每千人拥有量为0.7，而美国、欧洲及日本则分别为21.9、6.1及20.0，内地自动售货机零售市场仍有不少增长空间。</p><p>随着人均可支配收入增长及劳动成本提升，该机构预计我国总自动售货机零售市场于2026年将达到270.62万台，2021-2026年复合年增长率为24.0%。</p><p>目前，在自动售货机运营商中，前五大经营者占据约1/5的市场份额，2021年前五大运营商点位数目约为19.98万。未来，若随着天彩控股旗下秀生活签订的10W台自动售货机逐步铺开，其<strong>势必将搅动当前的行业格局，甚至有望挑战行业龙头地位。</strong></p><p>同时如上文所述，与大型集团合作的渠道将成为轻资产发展模式的关键，未来值得对公司接下来的渠道拓展动作予以关注。若公司未来能顺利拿下更多渠道，其在这一轻资产快速发展模式下挑战行业第一的位置将指日可待;与此同时，这些渠道也将有望形成其极为深厚的护城河，从而形成其未来具备高确定性的增长。</p><p>现阶段，天彩控股旗下秀生活的这一模式创新能否跑通，值得在近段时间内进行关注。而单就天彩控股近期公布业务进展的频率和进度来看，其作为自动售货机领域的新进入者，对于行业的“鲶鱼效应”正日渐明显。</p> <div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>与全球最大家电企业签下10万台订单，天彩控股(03882)一纸公告发布后，剑指中国自动售货机行业龙头</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n与全球最大家电企业签下10万台订单，天彩控股(03882)一纸公告发布后，剑指中国自动售货机行业龙头\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-26 22:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/920391.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一纸公告，正试图撬动国内自动售货机二十多年来的行业格局。智通财经APP了解到，04月26日，天彩控股(03882)发布公告：武汉秀生活便利店有限公司(武汉秀生活)，天彩控股非全资附属公司与世界五百强企业、全球最大的家用电器公司之一的附属公司签订《战略合作协议》。根据合作协议，武汉秀生活向其订购10万台自动售货机。不久前，天彩控股曾于3月发布一则与中国最大的物业公司之一企业签订自助售货机合作合约的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/920391.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230426/20230426223436_62083.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{"03882":"天彩控股","BK1096":"消费电子产品"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/920391.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2330139038","content_text":"一纸公告，正试图撬动国内自动售货机二十多年来的行业格局。智通财经APP了解到，04月26日，天彩控股(03882)发布公告：武汉秀生活便利店有限公司(武汉秀生活)，天彩控股非全资附属公司与世界五百强企业、全球最大的家用电器公司之一的附属公司签订《战略合作协议》。根据合作协议，武汉秀生活向其订购10万台自动售货机。不久前，天彩控股曾于3月发布一则与中国最大的物业公司之一企业签订自助售货机合作合约的公告，第一阶段涉及自助售货机安装量2万台。而此次合作所涉及的10万台订购量，在行业内是一个不小的数字。要知道，以目前行业内第一名的友宝自动售货机点位计算，截至2022年9月30日，友宝于全国的点位规模为8.76万个，从成立之初发展到如今的近9万台规模，友宝用了11年。而秀生活作为一家于去年5月才成立的公司，发展速度卓而出群。2022年11月，凭借完成对秀生活控股，天彩控股成功成为率先登录二级市场的自动售货机运营商。在短短两个月时间内，天彩控股两则公告的接连发布大有叫阵行业龙头之势。如今，这一“自动售货机第一股”与全球五百强、全球最大的家电企业达成深度合作。尽管天彩控股并未透露是与哪一家，能称之为世界五百强、全球最大家电企业的企业只有3家分别为海尔、格力和美的。其中格力并没有介入自动售货机业务，只有海尔和美的有相关业务，海尔只能作为全球最大的冰箱企业之一并不能称之为全球最大的家电企业，这样看来公告中所指的世界五百强、全球最大家电企业大概率就是美的。根据相关行业分析，这势必将对当前国内的自动售货机行业格局带来改变。运营新解法——规模超行业第一，10万台订单底气何在?根据弗若斯特沙利文数据显示，2021年，中国内地自动售货机的保有量为92.45万台。其中，作为当前的自助售货机运营商龙头，友宝于2022年9月在全国的点位规模约为8.76万个;2021年数据，业内前两大参与者的合共点位规模约为13.5万个，此次天彩控股合作涉及的自动售货机规模约接近当前市场前一、二名的总和。可以预见，若天彩控股此次合作的10万台订单全面铺开，全国自助售货机保有量将因此而有里程碑式的提升;而作为行业的一个新进入者，天彩控股也大概率将成为行业内的新晋龙头公司。在附属公司秀生活成立仅短短不到一年时间内，便签下如此大规模的订单，为何能有这么大的底气?或许能从其公开信息中显露出冰山一角的发展模式中略窥一二。在当前主流的自动售货机运营商发展模式中，几个面临较大开支的环节对于企业能否实现盈利至关重要，更决定了运营商的业务规模和发展质量。据智通财经APP了解到，在自动售货机生意中，几个开支较大的环节分别是：1.机器采购;2.点位开拓;3.运营维护;4.场地费。对于运营商而言，覆盖点位的能力很关键，而要更好地盈利，则要在上面各个环节用更低的成本快速占领市场。以友宝的发展路径为例，成立之初，友宝运营拓展以重资产的自营模式为主，彼时每台自动售货机的购置成本约为2-3万元，这样高度依赖资金的模式自然难以进行大规模扩张。2015年，公司转而主推加盟的模式，如今发展为其招股书中提到的“点位合伙人”模式。在合伙人模式下，友宝的机器采购、点位开发、场地费成本转嫁由点位合伙人、附属点位经销商承担，点位运营依然由友宝负责。而作为代价，友宝则需与上述参与者进行商品销售分成，同时有时也需要就场地费为合伙人先行垫款。而在智通财经APP看来，天彩控股之所以有底气能与美的签下这么大规模的订单，则在于其在这几个关键的环节找到了新的解法，相较友宝的传统发展模式大大节省了成本，从而得以以轻资产的模式实现快速扩张。根据天彩控股此前发布的公告，秀生活与中国最大的物业公司之一签订合作协议，并在中国全国范围内开展广泛业务合作。也就是说，公司通过与集团企业达成合作，一举解决了点位拓展的高成本问题，省去了大量点位拓展团队开支，以低成本方式依托集团企业的全国网络实现快速扩张。与此同时，在与集团规模化的合作模式下，场地费较传统零散拓张的模式更低，点位也相对更为集中，运营及维护的效率更高，能够以更少的人员覆盖更多点位，运输成本也相对更低。在集团合作模式下，天彩控股在点位开发、运营维护、场地费等环节较以往模式节省大量成本。另一方面，由于与这次签约，公司点位覆盖具确定性，且成规模。据天彩控股在公告中透露，秀生活已获得头部食品饮料品牌商以免费赞助的形式提供相当数量的人工智能售货机;目前，秀生活已获得了三家企业免费提供的第三代人工智能售货机，数量为3万台。这便为公司在机器采购环节又节省了一大笔开支，也是天彩控股轻资产发展模式的核心所在。通过在机器采购、点位开拓、运营维护、场地费等各个环节实现低成本扩张，秀生活得以在在自动售货机生意中实现真正的轻资产发展模式。换句话说，其正通过模式创新的方式，在自动售货机领域里掀起一股“增长黑客”浪潮，这便或是其签下10万台机器订单的底气所在。剑指行业龙头位置，“鲇鱼效应”日渐显现若对天彩控股上述的轻资产模式创新进行梳理可以发现，与大型集团进行规模化合作，是该模式得以持续运转的关键核心。因此，掌握与大型集团企业合作的渠道，便掌握了该发展路径模式的护城河。据天彩控股此前在公告中提到，秀生活正与中国某些知名企业集团就在其于中国各地营运及管理的物业及场所放置自动售货机进行洽谈及讨论;董事认为目标公司业务的市场拓展及渗透潜力巨大，因此放置的人工智能自动售货机数量可能在未来数年呈指数增长。以此为背景回顾此次10W台订单的合作，不妨可以做一个大胆猜想，天彩控股旗下的秀生活有如此底气，一口气签下远超当下行业第一自助售货机保有量水平规模的订单，其未来潜在的点位订单或将远不止当前公布的2W台：其一，据天彩控股已公布的公告，目前设置2W台自动售货机的合作仅为第一阶段，未来，不排除双方展开第二甚至更多阶段的合作。而据公司在公告中提到，与秀生活签约的合作方为中国最大的物业管理公司之一，双方目前第一阶段的合作范围仅限北京、上海、广州、重庆、深圳等11个城市，其未来远具备更多进一步合作的空间。其二，正如此前在公告中提及，正在进行放置自动售货机洽谈及讨论的企业集团不止一家。另据接触到天彩控股的投行人士透露，秀生活目前还与多家物业企业洽商合作，“多为物业10强、20强”。可以预测，随着秀生活与这一签约物企第一阶段合作落地，形成示范效应，公司后续还将有望迎来与更多大型集团企业的合作，复制上述模式，形成真正的指数级增长。据弗若斯特沙利文报告，2021年，内地自动售货机的数量已达92.45万台，2016-2021年复合年增长率约为30.3%，对比欧美、日本等，内地2021年的自动售货机每千人拥有量为0.7，而美国、欧洲及日本则分别为21.9、6.1及20.0，内地自动售货机零售市场仍有不少增长空间。随着人均可支配收入增长及劳动成本提升，该机构预计我国总自动售货机零售市场于2026年将达到270.62万台，2021-2026年复合年增长率为24.0%。目前，在自动售货机运营商中，前五大经营者占据约1/5的市场份额，2021年前五大运营商点位数目约为19.98万。未来，若随着天彩控股旗下秀生活签订的10W台自动售货机逐步铺开，其势必将搅动当前的行业格局，甚至有望挑战行业龙头地位。同时如上文所述，与大型集团合作的渠道将成为轻资产发展模式的关键，未来值得对公司接下来的渠道拓展动作予以关注。若公司未来能顺利拿下更多渠道，其在这一轻资产快速发展模式下挑战行业第一的位置将指日可待;与此同时，这些渠道也将有望形成其极为深厚的护城河，从而形成其未来具备高确定性的增长。现阶段，天彩控股旗下秀生活的这一模式创新能否跑通，值得在近段时间内进行关注。而单就天彩控股近期公布业务进展的频率和进度来看，其作为自动售货机领域的新进入者，对于行业的“鲶鱼效应”正日渐明显。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364269699858576,"gmtCreate":1729943051024,"gmtModify":1729943051743,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">$五粮液(000858)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000858\">$五粮液(000858)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $五粮液(000858)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364269699858576","repostId":"2478915239","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2478915239","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1729909221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2478915239?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-26 10:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI竞赛愈发激烈，消息称谷歌计划12月发布Gemini 2.0模型","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2478915239","media":"IT之家","summary":"IT之家 10 月 26 日消息，The Verge 今天凌晨报道称，OpenAI“正计划”在 12 月推出其下一代旗舰 AI 模型的同时，消息人士称谷歌也将在当月发布下一代的 Gemini 2.0 模型，AI 竞赛正随着冬季的临近而愈发激烈。除此之外，有关 Gemini 2.0 的具体功能细节尚未披露。报道称，即将发布的新模型将基于今年 2 月推出的 Gemini 1.5 版本，并扩大了上下文窗口。另有消息称，谷歌宣布了重要的组织调整： Gemini 应用团队将并入 DeepMind 。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>IT之家 10 月 26 日消息，The Verge 今天凌晨报道称，OpenAI“正计划”在 12 月推出其下一代旗舰 AI 模型的同时，消息人士称<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>也将在当月发布下一代的 Gemini 2.0 模型</strong>，AI 竞赛正随着冬季的临近而愈发激烈。</p><p>据悉，OpenAI 的 CEO <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300825\">阿尔特</a>曼正逐步推出 GPT-4 的升级版本，首批使用者将是其商业合作伙伴；谷歌计划直接广泛发布 Gemini 的新版本。</p><p>然而，最新的报告指出，由 Demis Hassabis 领导的团队所期待的性能提升“未在该模型中如愿实现”，这似乎是开发顶尖大型模型的公司普遍面临的问题。除此之外，有关 Gemini 2.0 的具体功能细节尚未披露。</p><p><strong>去年 12 月</strong>，谷歌发布了 Gemini 1.0，并通过 Bard （IT之家注：改名之前）上线了 1.0 Pro 版本，而小体积的 Nano 版本在 Pixel 8 Pro 上首次亮相。报道称，即将发布的新模型将基于今年 2 月推出的 Gemini 1.5 版本，并扩大了上下文窗口。</p><p>另有消息称，谷歌宣布了重要的组织调整： Gemini 应用团队将并入 DeepMind 。所谓“广泛发布”，或意味着谷歌计划将该产品<strong>分别面向开发者与终端用户推出</strong>。与此同时，Project Astra 尚未发布，预计将为 Gemini Live 添加摄像 / 视觉功能，谷歌如何协调这两项发布仍待观察。</p><p>不过需要注意的是，阿尔特曼昨天在𝕏上称有关“下一代模型”的报道是假消息：<strong>fake news out of control（假消息失控了）</strong>。</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI竞赛愈发激烈，消息称谷歌计划12月发布Gemini 2.0模型</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI竞赛愈发激烈，消息称谷歌计划12月发布Gemini 2.0模型\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-26 10:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8dy8ebNGnHM><strong>IT之家</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IT之家 10 月 26 日消息，The Verge 今天凌晨报道称，OpenAI“正计划”在 12 月推出其下一代旗舰 AI 模型的同时，消息人士称谷歌也将在当月发布下一代的 Gemini 2.0 模型，AI 竞赛正随着冬季的临近而愈发激烈。据悉，OpenAI 的 CEO 阿尔特曼正逐步推出 GPT-4 的升级版本，首批使用者将是其商业合作伙伴；谷歌计划直接广泛发布 Gemini 的新版本。然而...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8dy8ebNGnHM\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f348812ea39b45cad3d64af127992eb9","relate_stocks":{"LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) 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上首次亮相。报道称，即将发布的新模型将基于今年 2 月推出的 Gemini 1.5 版本，并扩大了上下文窗口。另有消息称，谷歌宣布了重要的组织调整： Gemini 应用团队将并入 DeepMind 。所谓“广泛发布”，或意味着谷歌计划将该产品分别面向开发者与终端用户推出。与此同时，Project Astra 尚未发布，预计将为 Gemini Live 添加摄像 / 视觉功能，谷歌如何协调这两项发布仍待观察。不过需要注意的是，阿尔特曼昨天在𝕏上称有关“下一代模型”的报道是假消息：fake news out of control（假消息失控了）。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":356087174623552,"gmtCreate":1727937322980,"gmtModify":1727937324938,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"S<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3565846847441978\">@小鹏汽车 &nbsp;</a>😞","listText":"S<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3565846847441978\">@小鹏汽车 &nbsp;</a>😞","text":"S@小鹏汽车 😞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356087174623552","repostId":"2472594459","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2472594459","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1727852127,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2472594459?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-02 14:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"港股异动 | 恒大汽车放量拉升逾58% 此前一度跌超8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2472594459","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，恒大汽车(00708)放量拉升逾58%，此前曾跌超8%。截至发稿，涨50.68%，报0.55港元，成交额4964.32万港元。消息面上，今年上半年，恒大汽车实现收入3837.7万元，同比减少75.17%；亏损约202.55亿元，同比扩大1.95倍。面对巨大债务及经营压力，恒大汽车一度谋求引入第三方买方出售相关股份，从而获得资金支持。但时隔逾3个月，恒大汽车引入战略投资者事宜至今仍未有实质性进展。值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道称，恒大许家印已被移送至深圳，配合恒大清算。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>(00708)放量拉升逾58%，此前曾跌超8%。截至发稿，涨50.68%，报0.55港元，成交额4964.32万港元。</p><p>消息面上，今年上半年，恒大汽车实现收入3837.7万元，同比减少75.17%；亏损约202.55亿元，同比扩大1.95倍。面对巨大债务及经营压力，恒大汽车一度谋求引入第三方买方出售相关股份，从而获得资金支持。但时隔逾3个月，恒大汽车引入战略投资者事宜至今仍未有实质性进展。值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道称，恒大许家印已被移送至深圳，配合恒大清算。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股异动 | 恒大汽车放量拉升逾58% 此前一度跌超8%</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1189687.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d663cec1bf148bc063b2f6e74297ca","relate_stocks":{"BK1539":"汽车股","BK1209":"保健护理机构","00708":"恒大汽车","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1598":"恒大概念","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1189687.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2472594459","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，恒大汽车(00708)放量拉升逾58%，此前曾跌超8%。截至发稿，涨50.68%，报0.55港元，成交额4964.32万港元。消息面上，今年上半年，恒大汽车实现收入3837.7万元，同比减少75.17%；亏损约202.55亿元，同比扩大1.95倍。面对巨大债务及经营压力，恒大汽车一度谋求引入第三方买方出售相关股份，从而获得资金支持。但时隔逾3个月，恒大汽车引入战略投资者事宜至今仍未有实质性进展。值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道称，恒大许家印已被移送至深圳，配合恒大清算。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":353031311188304,"gmtCreate":1727229279159,"gmtModify":1727229280194,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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GROUP(01650)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306688946647216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":303399436239048,"gmtCreate":1715092506300,"gmtModify":1715092508143,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303399436239048","repostId":"2432064429","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2432064429","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1714746582,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2432064429?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-03 22:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Broadcom Stock: Time To Take Some Profit","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2432064429","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Broadcom Inc. is currently priced for perfection, leading little margin of safety.For investors truly committed to the long term, there is plenty to like, such as its focus on enterprise infrastructur","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Broadcom Inc. is currently priced for perfection, leading little margin of safety.</li><li>For investors truly committed to the long term, there is plenty to like, such as its focus on enterprise infrastructure, strategic M&amp;A, and AI potential.</li><li>However, in the near term, the market's expectations for its EPS growth are overly optimistic in my view.</li></ul><p><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"864px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1173622964/image_1173622964.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1173622964/image_1173622964.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1173622964/image_1173622964.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1173622964/image_1173622964.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1173622964/image_1173622964.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1173622964/image_1173622964.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1173622964/image_1173622964.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1173622964/image_1173622964.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1173622964/image_1173622964.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Sundry Photography</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>AVGO stock: high P/E and high EPS growth expectations</h2> <p>My thesis for this article is that <b>Broadcom Inc.</b> (<span>NASDAQ:AVGO</span>) stock is currently priced for perfection. As a result, I rate the stock as a HOLD. I think it<span> is prudent for existing investors to take some profit (unless you are truly committed to the long term) and for potential investors to stay on the sideline for now.</span></p> <p>The stock is currently expensively valued even on a non-GAAP basis and by the FAAMNG standard as seen in the chart below. Trading at 28.96x of non-GAAP earnings (on a TTM basis), AVGO is more expensively priced than all the other companies listed here except for (Microsoft) and Netflix (NFLX).</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/5/2/48844541-1714667781876946.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The market certainly has a good reason for such an elevated P/E ratio. It expects the EPS growth<span> to quickly catch up and compress the P/E as you can see from the chart next, which describes </span>consensus EPS estimates<span> for AVGO stock in the five few years. Based on the chart, analysts expect that AVGO’s EPS will grow significantly over the next few years and the implied P/E would shrink rapidly in tandem. To wit, its FY 2024 EPS is estimated to be $47.3, translating into a YOY growth rate of almost 12%. Its FY 2025 EPS growth is expected to be even higher at more than 22%. All told, the CAGR for the next 5 years is about 16%. At such growth rates, its implied FWD P/E would drop to below 20x in FY 2026 and to only 13.2x in 5 years.</span></p> <p>In the next section, I will explain why such a growth projection is overly optimistic in my view.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/5/2/48844541-17146677822951717.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>AVGO stock: My growth projections</h2> <p>Firstly, I need to acknowledge that there are good reasons behind the above aggressive growth expectations. Unlike many tech companies focused on consumer products or software-as-a-service (“SaaS”), AVGO’s business model offers a few key differentiators in my view. The top one is its specialization in semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. This niche targets the building blocks of technology, making its products essential for various industries like data centers, telecom, and enterprise computing.</p> <p>Second, AVGO is also savvy at making strategic acquisitions of complementary businesses to expand its product portfolio and market reach. A recent example is VMWare. Although VMWare is no longer the dominant high-growth virtualization software company, I anticipate a trend to more private clouds in the coming years, which would help VMWare’s efforts to sell virtualization to on-premises customers.</p> <p>Finally, the company invests aggressively in new products. The chart below shows AVGO's R&amp;D expenses (top panel) and its CFO (cash from operations, bottom panel) recently. As seen, AVGO's R&amp;D expenses have been increasing significantly. In 2022, the company's R&amp;D expense was a humongous $4.9 billion already. This figure then increased to $5.25 billion in 2023. To better contextualize things, the company's CFO is currently $18.09B. Thus, a $5.25B R&amp;D budget represents almost 30% (29.0% to be exact) of its CFO. With the burgeoning AI applications, such aggressive investments position AVGO well for this nonlinear growth area.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/5/2/48844541-17146677823084364.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Analyzing its R&amp;D expenses as a percentage of its CFO is important because my method for estimating long-term growth involves reinvestment rates. The method is detailed in my other articles and I will just quote the results here for AVGO:</p> <blockquote><p><em>The method involves the return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the reinvestment rate (“RR”). The ROCE for AVGO has reached a peak of around 25% recently as seen in the chart below. Its RR is about 35% considering the above R&amp;D investments and growth CAPEX expenditures. With these inputs, AVGO’s organic growth rate would be ~8.75% (25.7% ROCE x 35% RR =8.8%). Note this number is the real growth rate without inflation. To obtain a notional growth rate, one would need to add an inflation escalator. Assuming an average inflation of 2.5% would bring the notional growth rate to 11.3%.</em></p></blockquote> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/5/2/48844541-17146677823225343.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Hence, my estimate, although not as high as consensus expectations, also points to double-digit annual growth. However, there are two key assumptions in my above estimation.</p> <p>First, I assumed its ROCE would remain at the recent peak level of 25.7%, which is an aggressive but justifiable assumption in my mind. A key consideration here is the synergist benefit on the cost reduction front regarding the VMWare acquisition. CEO Hock Tan has a stellar track record of reducing costs at prior software acquisitions, and I see no reason this won’t be repeated with the VMWare integration.</p> <p>Second, I assume an RR of 35%. This is simply too aggressive and unsustainable eventually. AVGO may be able to sustain it for a few years (say the next 5 as consensus estimates imply). But the average RR among mature large tech firms is around 5%. As business expands, there are simply fewer and fewer growth areas to invest in that can move the needle – even if the business has the cash to reinvest.</p> <p>Next, I will explore the implications of these assumptions for the stock’s return projections.</p> <h2>AVGO stock’s future return projections</h2> <p>Here, I will apply a discounted FCF (free cash flow) model to assess AVGO’s fair price. More specifically, I will apply the following 2-stage discounted FCF model:</p> <blockquote><p><em>There are a total of 3 key parameters in the 2-stage discounted FCF model: the discount rate, the growth rate in stage 1, and the terminal growth rate. For the discount rate, I relied on the so-called WACC, the weighted average cost of the capital model. The discount rate for AVGO is about 9.5% on average in recent years following this model. </em></p></blockquote> <p>For the growth rate in the 1<sup>st</sup> stage, I will assume AVGO can maintain an RR of 10% (i.e., about 2x of the average) for the next 10 years at a ROCE of 25.7% based on the discussions we just had above. These assumptions lead to a real growth rate of 2.57%. Adding an average inflation of 2.5% results in a nominal growth rate of 5.07% in this stage.</p> <p>For the terminal growth rates in stage 2, I will assume AVGO’s ROCE to remain at 25.7% but its RR to drop to the 5% average. These assumptions, again with a 2.5% inflation factor, lead to a terminal growth rate of 3.78%.</p> <p>With these parameters, the table below shows the fair price based on the discounted FCF model. Note that these calculations used its FY1 FCF of $47.46 per share, which was inferred from its 3.77% FCF yield on FY1 basis (see the second chart below). My analysis of its fair price ended up being around $986, about 20% below its market price of $1240 as of this writing.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/5/2/48844541-1714667782057454.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/5/2/48844541-17146677824021962.png\"/></span> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Summary</h2> <p>To conclude, Broadcom Inc. presents a mix of factors under current conditions, and thus I rate it as HOLD. To reiterate, my thesis is largely oriented to the near- or medium term (say the next 1~2 years). For investors truly committed to the long term, I am optimistic about its business model, which offers several key differentiation factors through its focus on enterprise infrastructure, strategic M&amp;A, and cost-efficiency.</p> <div></div> <p>As mentioned earlier, these factors position Broadcom Inc. well to capitalize on the nonlinear growth curve of AI demand – but again, my view is that these are futuristic opportunities and I see more downside uncertainties than upside potentials in the near term. In the near term, I see considerable valuation risks and consider analysts’ projections for its EPS growth to be too aggressive, resulting in an unfavorable return/risk profile.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Broadcom Stock: Time To Take Some Profit</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBroadcom Stock: Time To Take Some Profit\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-03 22:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4689050-broadcom-stock-time-to-take-some-profit><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Broadcom Inc. is currently priced for perfection, leading little margin of safety.For investors truly committed to the long term, there is plenty to like, such as its focus on enterprise ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4689050-broadcom-stock-time-to-take-some-profit\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1173622964/image_1173622964.jpg","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1815336760.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","NFLX":"奈飞","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU1670710588.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1670710661.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) INC","LU1823568750.SGD":"Fidelity Global Technology A-ACC SGD","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1670711123.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","AVGO":"博通","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","AVGOP":"BROADCOM INC PFD SER A 22"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4689050-broadcom-stock-time-to-take-some-profit","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2432064429","content_text":"Broadcom Inc. is currently priced for perfection, leading little margin of safety.For investors truly committed to the long term, there is plenty to like, such as its focus on enterprise infrastructure, strategic M&A, and AI potential.However, in the near term, the market's expectations for its EPS growth are overly optimistic in my view.   Sundry Photography AVGO stock: high P/E and high EPS growth expectations My thesis for this article is that Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) stock is currently priced for perfection. As a result, I rate the stock as a HOLD. I think it is prudent for existing investors to take some profit (unless you are truly committed to the long term) and for potential investors to stay on the sideline for now. The stock is currently expensively valued even on a non-GAAP basis and by the FAAMNG standard as seen in the chart below. Trading at 28.96x of non-GAAP earnings (on a TTM basis), AVGO is more expensively priced than all the other companies listed here except for (Microsoft) and Netflix (NFLX).   Seeking Alpha The market certainly has a good reason for such an elevated P/E ratio. It expects the EPS growth to quickly catch up and compress the P/E as you can see from the chart next, which describes consensus EPS estimates for AVGO stock in the five few years. Based on the chart, analysts expect that AVGO’s EPS will grow significantly over the next few years and the implied P/E would shrink rapidly in tandem. To wit, its FY 2024 EPS is estimated to be $47.3, translating into a YOY growth rate of almost 12%. Its FY 2025 EPS growth is expected to be even higher at more than 22%. All told, the CAGR for the next 5 years is about 16%. At such growth rates, its implied FWD P/E would drop to below 20x in FY 2026 and to only 13.2x in 5 years. In the next section, I will explain why such a growth projection is overly optimistic in my view.   Seeking Alpha AVGO stock: My growth projections Firstly, I need to acknowledge that there are good reasons behind the above aggressive growth expectations. Unlike many tech companies focused on consumer products or software-as-a-service (“SaaS”), AVGO’s business model offers a few key differentiators in my view. The top one is its specialization in semiconductor and infrastructure software solutions. This niche targets the building blocks of technology, making its products essential for various industries like data centers, telecom, and enterprise computing. Second, AVGO is also savvy at making strategic acquisitions of complementary businesses to expand its product portfolio and market reach. A recent example is VMWare. Although VMWare is no longer the dominant high-growth virtualization software company, I anticipate a trend to more private clouds in the coming years, which would help VMWare’s efforts to sell virtualization to on-premises customers. Finally, the company invests aggressively in new products. The chart below shows AVGO's R&D expenses (top panel) and its CFO (cash from operations, bottom panel) recently. As seen, AVGO's R&D expenses have been increasing significantly. In 2022, the company's R&D expense was a humongous $4.9 billion already. This figure then increased to $5.25 billion in 2023. To better contextualize things, the company's CFO is currently $18.09B. Thus, a $5.25B R&D budget represents almost 30% (29.0% to be exact) of its CFO. With the burgeoning AI applications, such aggressive investments position AVGO well for this nonlinear growth area.   Seeking Alpha Analyzing its R&D expenses as a percentage of its CFO is important because my method for estimating long-term growth involves reinvestment rates. The method is detailed in my other articles and I will just quote the results here for AVGO: The method involves the return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the reinvestment rate (“RR”). The ROCE for AVGO has reached a peak of around 25% recently as seen in the chart below. Its RR is about 35% considering the above R&D investments and growth CAPEX expenditures. With these inputs, AVGO’s organic growth rate would be ~8.75% (25.7% ROCE x 35% RR =8.8%). Note this number is the real growth rate without inflation. To obtain a notional growth rate, one would need to add an inflation escalator. Assuming an average inflation of 2.5% would bring the notional growth rate to 11.3%.   Seeking Alpha Hence, my estimate, although not as high as consensus expectations, also points to double-digit annual growth. However, there are two key assumptions in my above estimation. First, I assumed its ROCE would remain at the recent peak level of 25.7%, which is an aggressive but justifiable assumption in my mind. A key consideration here is the synergist benefit on the cost reduction front regarding the VMWare acquisition. CEO Hock Tan has a stellar track record of reducing costs at prior software acquisitions, and I see no reason this won’t be repeated with the VMWare integration. Second, I assume an RR of 35%. This is simply too aggressive and unsustainable eventually. AVGO may be able to sustain it for a few years (say the next 5 as consensus estimates imply). But the average RR among mature large tech firms is around 5%. As business expands, there are simply fewer and fewer growth areas to invest in that can move the needle – even if the business has the cash to reinvest. Next, I will explore the implications of these assumptions for the stock’s return projections. AVGO stock’s future return projections Here, I will apply a discounted FCF (free cash flow) model to assess AVGO’s fair price. More specifically, I will apply the following 2-stage discounted FCF model: There are a total of 3 key parameters in the 2-stage discounted FCF model: the discount rate, the growth rate in stage 1, and the terminal growth rate. For the discount rate, I relied on the so-called WACC, the weighted average cost of the capital model. The discount rate for AVGO is about 9.5% on average in recent years following this model.  For the growth rate in the 1st stage, I will assume AVGO can maintain an RR of 10% (i.e., about 2x of the average) for the next 10 years at a ROCE of 25.7% based on the discussions we just had above. These assumptions lead to a real growth rate of 2.57%. Adding an average inflation of 2.5% results in a nominal growth rate of 5.07% in this stage. For the terminal growth rates in stage 2, I will assume AVGO’s ROCE to remain at 25.7% but its RR to drop to the 5% average. These assumptions, again with a 2.5% inflation factor, lead to a terminal growth rate of 3.78%. With these parameters, the table below shows the fair price based on the discounted FCF model. Note that these calculations used its FY1 FCF of $47.46 per share, which was inferred from its 3.77% FCF yield on FY1 basis (see the second chart below). My analysis of its fair price ended up being around $986, about 20% below its market price of $1240 as of this writing.   Author  Seeking Alpha Summary To conclude, Broadcom Inc. presents a mix of factors under current conditions, and thus I rate it as HOLD. To reiterate, my thesis is largely oriented to the near- or medium term (say the next 1~2 years). For investors truly committed to the long term, I am optimistic about its business model, which offers several key differentiation factors through its focus on enterprise infrastructure, strategic M&A, and cost-efficiency.  As mentioned earlier, these factors position Broadcom Inc. well to capitalize on the nonlinear growth curve of AI demand – but again, my view is that these are futuristic opportunities and I see more downside uncertainties than upside potentials in the near term. In the near term, I see considerable valuation risks and consider analysts’ projections for its EPS growth to be too aggressive, resulting in an unfavorable return/risk profile.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299086416298040,"gmtCreate":1714029919725,"gmtModify":1714029921128,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01650\">$HYGIEIA GROUP(01650)$ &nbsp;</a>看好便利店行业","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01650\">$HYGIEIA GROUP(01650)$ &nbsp;</a>看好便利店行业","text":"$HYGIEIA GROUP(01650)$ 看好便利店行业","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299086416298040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":227268616777848,"gmtCreate":1696493502376,"gmtModify":1696493515292,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"鲁","listText":"鲁","text":"鲁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/227268616777848","repostId":"1123258969","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123258969","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1600999159,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123258969?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-25 09:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中国恒大持续拉升至5%，此前一度跌超4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123258969","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月25日，中国恒大持续拉升，涨幅扩大至5%，此前一度跌超4%；恒大汽车跌幅收窄至不足2%，此前一度跌超8%。昨晚，恒大发布公告称，近日，网上流传有关我公司重组情况的谣言，相关文件和截图凭空捏造、纯属","content":"<p>9月25日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>持续拉升，涨幅扩大至5%，此前一度跌超4%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>跌幅收窄至不足2%，此前一度跌超8%。</p><p>昨晚，恒大发布公告称，近日，网上流传有关我公司重组情况的谣言，相关文件和截图凭空捏造、纯属诽谤，对我公司造成严重的商誉损害。我公司强烈谴责，已向公安机关报案，坚决用法律武器维护公司合法权益。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc26954f7f73f89fe4bc9ea48f971768\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/322361c79f2fc29a252b8c342058aa26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国恒大持续拉升至5%，此前一度跌超4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国恒大持续拉升至5%，此前一度跌超4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-09-25 09:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>9月25日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>持续拉升，涨幅扩大至5%，此前一度跌超4%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00708\">恒大汽车</a>跌幅收窄至不足2%，此前一度跌超8%。</p><p>昨晚，恒大发布公告称，近日，网上流传有关我公司重组情况的谣言，相关文件和截图凭空捏造、纯属诽谤，对我公司造成严重的商誉损害。我公司强烈谴责，已向公安机关报案，坚决用法律武器维护公司合法权益。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc26954f7f73f89fe4bc9ea48f971768\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/322361c79f2fc29a252b8c342058aa26\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6fcdaee085f89a043698b2126b966fe","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123258969","content_text":"9月25日，中国恒大持续拉升，涨幅扩大至5%，此前一度跌超4%；恒大汽车跌幅收窄至不足2%，此前一度跌超8%。昨晚，恒大发布公告称，近日，网上流传有关我公司重组情况的谣言，相关文件和截图凭空捏造、纯属诽谤，对我公司造成严重的商誉损害。我公司强烈谴责，已向公安机关报案，坚决用法律武器维护公司合法权益。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":197145249501344,"gmtCreate":1689160859858,"gmtModify":1689161021561,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197145249501344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":658098435,"gmtCreate":1682222541428,"gmtModify":1682223215629,"author":{"id":"3561160510113253","authorId":"3561160510113253","name":"周佐舜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f48cb2eb74d6ac387d3c56ced227dcd","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561160510113253","authorIdStr":"3561160510113253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658098435","repostId":"2326605123","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2326605123","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1681201740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2326605123?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-11 16:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"【互联网券商】老虎国际推TigerGPT　使用OpenAI技术、用户可登记轮候试用","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2326605123","media":"香港经济日报","summary":"中资互联网券商老虎国际宣布推出人工智能投资助手—TigerGPT，属于运用老虎国际的金融数据库及OpenAI技术开发的文本生成式AI聊天机器人，将内置于其交易平台Tiger Trade。老虎国际表示，TigerGPT目前正处于用户测试阶段，会邀请指定市场的用户参与，用户可登记进入轮候名单。据介绍，TigerGPT初期会以繁体中文、简体中文及英文版本为基础，未来会新增支援粤语以至其他语言，配合公司。公司续指，TigerGPT每日持续接受训练，吸收最新的市场资讯，确保互动内容精准扼要。","content":"<div>\n<p>中资互联网券商老虎国际（美：TIGR）宣布推出人工智能（AI）投资助手—TigerGPT，属于运用老虎国际的金融数据库及OpenAI技术开发的文本生成式AI聊天机器人，将内置于其交易平台Tiger Trade。老虎国际表示，TigerGPT目前正处于用户测试阶段，会邀请指定市场的用户参与，用户可登记进入轮候名单。据介绍，TigerGPT初期会以繁体中文、简体中文及英文版本为基础，未来会新增支援粤语...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://inews.hket.com/article/3502492/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"hket_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【互联网券商】老虎国际推TigerGPT　使用OpenAI技术、用户可登记轮候试用</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【互联网券商】老虎国际推TigerGPT　使用OpenAI技术、用户可登记轮候试用\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-11 16:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://inews.hket.com/article/3502492/><strong>香港经济日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中资互联网券商老虎国际（美：TIGR）宣布推出人工智能（AI）投资助手—TigerGPT，属于运用老虎国际的金融数据库及OpenAI技术开发的文本生成式AI聊天机器人，将内置于其交易平台Tiger Trade。老虎国际表示，TigerGPT目前正处于用户测试阶段，会邀请指定市场的用户参与，用户可登记进入轮候名单。据介绍，TigerGPT初期会以繁体中文、简体中文及英文版本为基础，未来会新增支援粤语...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://inews.hket.com/article/3502492/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4563":"昨日强势股","TIGR":"老虎证券","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://inews.hket.com/article/3502492/","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2326605123","content_text":"中资互联网券商老虎国际（美：TIGR）宣布推出人工智能（AI）投资助手—TigerGPT，属于运用老虎国际的金融数据库及OpenAI技术开发的文本生成式AI聊天机器人，将内置于其交易平台Tiger Trade。老虎国际表示，TigerGPT目前正处于用户测试阶段，会邀请指定市场的用户参与，用户可登记进入轮候名单。据介绍，TigerGPT初期会以繁体中文、简体中文及英文版本为基础，未来会新增支援粤语以至其他语言，配合公司。老虎国际指，新服务利用自身数据库以及多个付费平台的内容，为用户提供及时及资讯性的答案，能覆盖上市公司背景及数据、海量金融知识及投资者教育内容、第三方市场及股票观点等，以对话形式在数秒内为用户解答投资问题。公司续指，TigerGPT每日持续接受训练，吸收最新的市场资讯，确保互动内容精准扼要。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}