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飞翔的企鹅逆袭
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飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2021-03-12
$苹果(AAPL)$
美债又到1.6了,加上今天周五。估计要大跌3%左右。
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2021-02-12
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
wsb就是收割散户的最强机构。AMC gme sndl,跟风买,亏了好多。还sh呢?扎空就是本世纪最大的金融骗局。
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2021-02-03
$AMC院线(AMC)$
$游戏驿站(GME)$
还要安慰自己,怂恿别人到什么时候?说好了上周五大胜,本周上月球。结果跌成这样
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2021-01-11
百度自动驾驶有些年头了。17年那时候在百度大厦周围天天早上测试。
百度宣布组建智能汽车公司,吉利为战略合作伙伴
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-12-23
$辉瑞(PFE)$
大数据牛,智能摆盘100-100
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-12-21
$辉瑞(PFE)$
我怀疑我买了个假的疫苗股
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-12-21
$美国航空(AAL)$
禁飞英国,今晚暴跌,欧股都崩了
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-05-12
$纳伯斯(NBR)$
这股牛🐮,前几天合股。现在直接翻倍。比邮轮,航空股厉害多了
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-05-04
$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$
做多不香吗?
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-05-01
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
原油真不是一般人玩的。10手被强平到7手,模拟。
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-04-30
$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$
大涨的局势啊,不演了
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-04-30
$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$
怎么盘前涨幅回落这么多,估计今天是跌势
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-04-29
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
刚收到工行短信,原油价格如果无限趋近于0或负值。工行将采取措施强制平仓。
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-04-28
风险爆表的金融产品还有人在洗。银行能做高风险产品吗?银行能做期货吗?真把自己当券商了。
韩会师:我们正在浪费掉中行原油宝事件
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-04-22
$华仕伯(VAL)$
估计要破产了,庄家砸盘不玩了
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-04-22
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
听说中行原油定了05原油结算价-37.63美元每桶。中行客户今天都收到短信,银行让补钱。抄底本金没了还要倒贴钱,好惨。我工行还有60 桶油,我在想要不要拿出来。。
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-04-15
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
今天工行移仓。微博一片哀嚎。升水7美元,7*7=49。持有成本飞起来了。
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-04-13
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
交行193买的原油,一个小时后就停止交易了。之后就是转06期,06期价格210。现在是卖了止损,还是等自动转呢。大神们,请帮忙分析一下。
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-04-09
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
外国人真含蓄,现在还不抄底,更待何时!
飞翔的企鹅逆袭
2020-04-08
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
难道是要先把用杠杆做多的爆仓,然后再协议减产拉高?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>还要安慰自己,怂恿别人到什么时候?说好了上周五大胜,本周上月球。结果跌成这样","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>还要安慰自己,怂恿别人到什么时候?说好了上周五大胜,本周上月球。结果跌成这样","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$$游戏驿站(GME)$还要安慰自己,怂恿别人到什么时候?说好了上周五大胜,本周上月球。结果跌成这样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314189130","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568700460862002","authorId":"3568700460862002","name":"全仓苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/056215f620e0516d1d0888ff5a9d5bb7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568700460862002","idStr":"3568700460862002"},"content":"呜呜 韭菜们的精神领袖屎壳郎再也不说话了","text":"呜呜 韭菜们的精神领袖屎壳郎再也不说话了","html":"呜呜 韭菜们的精神领袖屎壳郎再也不说话了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332393467,"gmtCreate":1610327534759,"gmtModify":1703743504860,"author":{"id":"3548245647047170","authorId":"3548245647047170","name":"飞翔的企鹅逆袭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18069cb6a59084b57e3dfb756c06a8f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548245647047170","idStr":"3548245647047170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"百度自动驾驶有些年头了。17年那时候在百度大厦周围天天早上测试。","listText":"百度自动驾驶有些年头了。17年那时候在百度大厦周围天天早上测试。","text":"百度自动驾驶有些年头了。17年那时候在百度大厦周围天天早上测试。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332393467","repostId":"2102699479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2102699479","pubTimestamp":1610324861,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2102699479?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-11 08:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"百度宣布组建智能汽车公司,吉利为战略合作伙伴","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2102699479","media":"新浪科技","summary":"图注:图片来自网络新浪科技讯 1月11日早间消息,新浪科技独家获悉,百度宣布正式组建一家智能汽车公司,以整车制造商的身份进军汽车行业。吉利控股集团将成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。百度重装组建汽车公司,是在智能出行领域的重要战略布局。百度汽车公司选择中国领先的汽车公司吉利作为合作方,吉利控股集团出资成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。","content":"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d161675004243e76045c7c2a5937e7\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"315\"><span>图注:图片来自网络</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>科技讯 1月11日早间消息,新浪科技独家获悉,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>宣布正式组建一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>汽车公司,以整车制造商的身份进军汽车行业。吉利控股集团将成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。</p><p>新组建的百度汽车公司将面向乘用车市场,着眼于智能汽车的设计研发、生产制造、销售服务全产业链,传承百度的人工智能、互联网科技基因,利用Apollo自动驾驶能力,发挥在汽车智能化领域长达8年的经验优势,重塑智能汽车产品形态,要做智能出行时代的变革者。</p><p>百度汽车公司独立于母公司体系,保持自主运营;同时百度将人工智能、Apollo自动驾驶、小度车载、百度地图等核心技术全面赋能汽车公司,支持其快速成长。百度重装组建汽车公司,是在智能出行领域的重要战略布局。</p><p>百度汽车公司选择中国领先的汽车公司吉利作为合作方,吉利控股集团出资成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。据悉,下一步双方将基于吉利最新研发的全球领先纯电动架构--浩瀚SEA智能进化体验架构,在智能汽车制造相关领域展开紧密合作,共同打造下一代智能汽车。</p><p>吉利控股集团公众号:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jFQ7IGu6y_qjGbOpffYPQ\" target=\"_blank\">吉利、百度宣布组建智能电动汽车公司</a></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>百度宣布组建智能汽车公司,吉利为战略合作伙伴</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-01-11/doc-iiznezxt1804059.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d161675004243e76045c7c2a5937e7","relate_stocks":{"161033":"智能汽车","399432":"智能汽车","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-01-11/doc-iiznezxt1804059.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2102699479","content_text":"图注:图片来自网络新浪科技讯 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12:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"韩会师:我们正在浪费掉中行原油宝事件","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2030482848","media":"新浪财经","summary":"文/新浪财经意见领袖专栏作家 韩会师“原油宝”事件本可以成为我国衍生金融工具市场发展的一个标志性事件。不仅苦主们不断“鸣冤”,没有投资“原油宝”的广大群众也在热情吃瓜。如果处理得当,这将是一次极佳的衍","content":"<html><body><article><p>文/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>财经意见领袖专栏作家 韩会师</p><p>“原油宝”事件本可以成为我国衍生金融工具市场发展的一个标志性事件。不仅苦主们不断“鸣冤”,没有投资“原油宝”的广大群众也在热情吃瓜。如果处理得当,这将是一次极佳的衍生金融工具知识普及机会、投资者风险教育机会、金融机构内控水平提高的机会、监管部门完善市场纠纷解决机制的机会。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200428123159519d2356nykiaj2bt4\"/><p>但遗憾的是,过去一周,笔者看到的几乎都是对“原油宝”设计者的舆论围殴,偶尔有几个试图从产品设计和合同条款执行角度来还原事件经过的声音,也是小心翼翼地浅尝辄止,生怕得罪同仇敌忾的广大网友,但即使这样也仍然避免不了遭遇狂喷的下场。</p><p>这种舆论氛围如果发展下去,最终结果很可能是衍生金融工具市场的发展再一次遭遇重大倒退,境内企业和个人投资者合法合规的风险管理工具和投资理财工具减少,从而在中长期提高企业经营风险,降低个人的投资理财能力。同时,投资者的认知能力不会有任何提升,今后换个场景,继续踩雷。</p><p>近日有消息说中行暂时不会追缴客户欠款。这个消息可能会令大家稍微冷静一点,笔者也借此机会从产品设计和合同条款的角度分析一下该事件。供各位朋友参考。</p><p>提前预告一下:如果过去的一周,在网络舆论的轰炸下您已经对“原油宝”深恶痛绝,那么以下文字可能令您十分不舒服。但没办法,真实的世界经常很残酷。</p><p><strong>一、“原油宝”是注定有人将大额亏损的投资品,但这并不意味着它有原罪</strong></p><p>必须承认,部分“原油宝”投资者的损失十分令人同情。无论是谁,突然听说自己100%保证金买的产品不但亏损殆尽,而且还倒欠银行一笔钱,绝对都是令人崩溃的。</p><p>“原油宝”本质上是为境内客户提供挂钩境外原油期货交易的服务。其基本运行机制是银行在境外期货交易所开设大账户,接受境内投资者交易指令后,汇总到境外的大账户执行指令,同时对境内客户收取100%的保证金。在这个交易结构里,银行充当交易通道,不是主动投资业务。所以,很多舆论认为“原油宝”(或者其他银行类似的账户原油产品)的收益率受银行交易员的交易能力影响,这是非常大的误解。</p><p><strong>提示1:</strong>如果投资者在投资“原油宝”的时候被销售人员刻意隐瞒了上述内容,这就属于商业欺诈,没什么好说的,上法庭告状就可以了。但这种情况应该不存在,因为“原油宝”的合同里写了相关内容,不存在刻意隐瞒的问题。</p><p><strong>提示2:</strong>如果投资者没有看懂合同,但销售人员告诉他们基础资产不是原油期货,“原油宝”就是个保本的或者亏损风险不大的理财产品,那么这也属于欺诈,不属于本文讨论的范围。</p><p><strong>提示3:</strong>如果投资者确实知道自己投资的是挂钩境外原油期货的产品,也看了合同,那么您可以继续往下看,<strong>本文仅针对这类投资者</strong>。</p><p>首先要明确一点:在投资之前,投资者是否了解包括原油期货在内的衍生金融工具交易是个零和博弈?</p><p>所谓零和博弈,就是您赚钱必然有人亏钱,不存在双赢的局面。所以投资者在买入“原油宝”的时候就应该对亏钱的可能性有清晰的预判。否则就说明,您对这个产品了解很有限。</p><p>此次因“原油宝”巨亏的多头投资者亏的钱去哪里了?不是被银行拿走了,而是被空头赚走了。现在舆论一边倒地同情多头,<strong>根本听不到赚了大钱的空头的声音</strong>,这种有选择性的信息传播危害很大。难道“原油宝”的投资者都是多头吗?肯定不是。</p><p>对于有实际货物交割需求的市场参与者来说,比如石油生产企业和石油炼化企业,原油期货是个非常有价值的套期保值工具。但对于没有实盘支撑的纯粹的投机者来说,所有衍生金融工具都是一个赌博(或者说投机)的工具而已。但这个赌博工具对于有实盘支撑的投资者来说很重要,因为参与人多了之后,市场的流动性会更好。</p><p>很明显,“原油宝”的投资者是没有实盘支撑的,大家无论多头还是空头,都是投机者,银行充当中介。如果要求银行赔偿多头的损失,那么银行逻辑上应该有权力要求空头退回收益。但很明显,没有空头会同意的,银行也没有这个能力。</p><p>总之,如果您明确知道“原油宝”的产品性质,就要有巨亏的心理准备,它就是一个高风险但可能带来高收益的产品,客户亏损巨大值得同情,但并不构成该产品本身的罪责。</p><p><strong>二、银行到底有没有履行合同中规定的义务</strong></p><p>看完上面的内容,估计很多朋友已经气死了。因为您可以列举出一大堆的理由证明多头的亏损是可以避免的,既然是可以避免的,那么责任就应该由银行负。但实际情况果真如此简单吗?</p><p>我们看一下这些广为流传的理由吧。</p><p><strong>理由1.</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01398\">工商银行</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00939\">建设银行</a>的账户原油客户就没有遭遇负价格,只有“原油宝”踩雷,所以责任在“原油宝”</p><p>包括“原油宝”在内,所有的账户原油产品都有一个移仓条款。也就是说,客户要和银行约好一个时间点,如果在这个时间点之前客户自己不把当月的期货合约平仓,那么到了该时点,就默认为客户授权银行替客户进行平仓,同时在下个月的期货合约上开仓。</p><p>比如5月期货合约的到期日是4月21日(美国时间),那么在4月21日之前,银行就要和客户事先约定一个日子,将客户的5月合约转为6月的合约。至于是选择在4月20日还是4月15日、4月16日,都可以。这里的重点是:<strong>移仓时间是客户和银行事先约定的。</strong></p><p>所有“原油宝”的投资者在签署投资合约时,就意味着已经同意了中行在4月20日22点启动移仓的产品设计。既然银行没有隐瞒移仓时间问题,银行就不必承担法律责任。</p><p>工行和建行由于移仓时间比较早,的确成功规避了原油期货负价格的风险,但这并非工行和建行聪明,它们只是在履行和客户签署的合约而已。换句话说,工行和建行想推迟移仓时间是不可能的,想提前移仓也不可能,因为合同里规定了它们必须在那个时点移仓。</p><p>再进一步讲。千万不要认为工行和建行较早进行移仓的策略是没有争议的。强调一下,如果您不知道这一点,说明您对期货市场的了解不够,这个产品不适合您。</p><p>为什么?</p><p>较早进行移仓的确规避了余下来的几个交易日可能出现“坏价格”的风险,但同时也放弃了可能出现“好价格”的收益。当然,这里面的好与坏都是相对的:多头的好价格就是空头的坏价格,反之亦然。对于那些在当月已经出现亏损,并且认为接下来的几个交易日价格可能翻转的投资者而言,他们愿意较早移仓吗?</p><p>举例而言。假设A行规定5月的账户原油交易在X日移仓,B行规定在X+5日移仓。在X日当天,当月的期货价格是20美元,X+1月的期货价格是30美元。有个A行多头客户的买入价是25美元,现在已经亏了5美元,但他预计未来3天之内5月期货价可能涨到40美元。</p><p>如果A行不在X日移仓,且该客户的预测成真,那么该客户就可能扭亏为盈。但如果A行在X日移仓,该客户不但在5月合约上亏了5美元,在移仓时由于远月升水,又要亏损10美元。所以该客户一定是非常不甘心的。</p><p>还有一点很重要。“原油宝”的移仓规则不是今年4月份才定下来的,过去几年它一直是这个移仓策略,大家以前不觉得有问题,现在出事了就要求银行承担责任,这符合市场规则吗?</p><p>再进一步讲,如果中行预测到了今天的局面,效仿工行和建行,提前进行了移仓,中行肯定死得很惨。因为它公然违背了和客户的合同约定。无论客户赚不赚钱,都可以告得它体无完肤。既然如此,换做是您,就算您已经预测到要出事,您敢提前移仓吗?</p><p><strong>理由2.中行没有替客户强行平仓,所以中行应该承担责任</strong></p><p>这个理由看上去是充分的,根据合同的规定,强平的触发条件是保证金比例降低到20%。如果强行平仓成功,客户的确可以避免一部分损失。但实际情况果真如此简单吗?</p><p>我们先看一下合同里面的全部约定。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200428123200044d2357h25s9ljhnx\"/><p>上述合同中的“乙方”就是银行。上述合约内容的含义是:如果客户的保证金不足,银行会提示追加保证金,如果客户不追加,那么银行可以启动强平,最终的目标是使客户的保证金维持在最低保证金之上的水平。</p><p>请看好,是最终的目标,不是一定要完成的任务。您从上述合同表述里肯定看不出一点“强平并且保证客户的资金余额在一定水平之上是银行义务”的意思。</p><p>为什么?是银行故意偷奸耍滑吗?还真不是。</p><p>因为在实际的市场操作中强平的结果是难以预测的。有过2015年股市配资经验的投资者应该比较清楚,在市场崩溃时,经常会出现价格断崖式下跌,事先规定的预警线和强平线很快就会被跌破,而且几乎没有成交量。所谓的强平并不是确保客户能够保留某个最低的本金余额,而是金融机构开始抛售的起点而已。一旦抛售开始,鬼才知道结果是什么。所以,如果您将强平作为要求银行承担损失的理由,只能说您并不了解强平的含义。</p><p>此外,还有一点。根据中行的声明,在20日22点时,客户的保证金仍然在20%的水平线之上,所以银行也不会启动强平。真正满足客户强平条件的时间是在20日22点之后,但这时银行已经启动移仓程序。</p><p><strong>下面的内容很重要:</strong>一旦客户没有在移仓时间到来之前自己平仓,那么就等于默认银行替其进行移仓操作。移仓一旦开始,银行就要进行大笔的集中平仓,在此过程中客户不再参与交易,因为客户一旦参与进来,银行就没办法进行集中操作了,这也是为什么各家银行都要和客户约定一个明确的移仓时间的原因。由于是大账户的集中平仓,当然也就不涉及具体的每一个客户的强平问题了,只能等交易结束看结果。如果银行不能在移仓时间段找到足够的交易对手,也就是市场流动性很差,那么就可能出现非常糟糕的价格。</p><p>一般而言,距离到期日越近,市场的流动性越差,越容易出现极端价格。“原油宝”的移仓时间段由于距离5月合约的到期日很近,仅有一天时间,是个容易出现流动性问题的时点。但此前这个时点从没出现过大问题,全球机构投资者选择这个时点进行移仓的很多,所以一直没引起市场关注。</p><p>此次悲剧绝对是打了银行一个措手不及,多头客户更是损失惨重。但尽管如此,由于银行的操作并未违反和客户签署的合同。无论我们如何诟病其交易策略,但在法律上都不足以构成要求银行承担多头损失的充分理由。</p><p>听上去很残酷吧。的确很残酷。但合同就是合同。在看网络留言时,笔者有个强烈的感觉,就是绝大部分网友和投资者其实都没有仔细看“原油宝”的合同条款,也不清楚期货交易的基本结构,主要还是凭着自己的直觉进行判断。这在投资中是很危险的。</p><p><strong>理由3.中行没有向客户提前说明原油期货价格可能跌到负值,导致客户受到误导,所以中行应该承担损失</strong></p><p>这个理由听上去也很有道理,但仍然是我们生活直觉上的道理,不是法理。</p><p>4月15日,CME发布测试公告称,如果出现零或者负价格,CME的所有交易和清算系统将继续正常运行,所有常规交易和头寸处理都可以在清算中执行。很明显,CME已经提前预料到了原油期货价格可能出现负值。至于其中是否有阴谋,这不是本文的重点。</p><p>在此之前,全世界的交易员都没有经历过期货价格为负值的情形,所以大多数人也没将这个公告太放在心上。从这个角度看,银行没有通过短信等方式向客户提示期货价格可能出现负值似乎是有一定责任的。</p><p>但不幸的是,合同中并没有规定,银行要将何种信息及时向投资者通报。其实也不可能有这类约定,因为对于期货投资而言,可能影响客户收益的因素太多了,任何中介机构都做不到对客户提供面面俱到的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">信息服务</a>,也没有中介机构敢把这种服务承诺写在合同上。</p><p>做不到怎么办,只能是默认来投资“原油宝”的客户是对市场有了解,并且会随时关注市场信息的人。<strong>而且CME的公告属于市场公开信息</strong>,这里并不存在银行蓄意隐瞒的问题。</p><p>所以,银行如果提前告知投资者有负油价的风险的确很好,但如果没有告知,也并不构成实质的违约行为。</p><p>我们在评价一个金融产品时,核心是看它是否对交易双方是公平的,而不是它是否会导致某些人出现亏损。我们固然可以说,“原油宝”的设计是不完美的,但不完美本身并不违法,特别是这种不完美已经通过合同的形式做了清晰的描述之后,只要在合同的执行过程中银行没有违背合同的举动,那么客户就很难要求银行赔偿投资损失。</p><p>如果您是一个亏损的多头客户,看到这里一定很难过。我亏了大钱,但法律好像还不站在我这边。</p><p><strong>说到底,还是那句话。“原油宝”的投资者们,你们真的仔细看过合同吗?你们真的知道自己投资的是什么吗?</strong></p><p><strong>从今以后记住一句话:</strong>如果你看不懂合同,无论是谁推销给你的金融产品,都不要参与。如果您忘了这句话,总有一天还会吃大亏。</p><p><strong>三、银行内部风控需要提高对小概率事件的警惕程度</strong></p><p>如果说在“原油宝”事件中谁有明确的责任,可能只能把板子打在产品设计上。如果再加一个,还可以将风险管理上没有提前想到负油价也算上。</p><p><strong>1.</strong><strong>产品设计</strong></p><p>前文已经提到,“原油宝”的移仓时间比较晚,而移仓时间越靠近当月的到期日,越可能遭遇流动性不足导致的极端价格,这个问题在产品设计时是可以被预测到的。</p><p>但上述缺陷并不是绝对的。还是那句话,成熟的投资者绝对不会用“好”或“坏”这种贴标签式的方式评价某个金融产品,就像我们不能简单地用“好人”或者“坏人”来评价别人一样。因为世上就没有纯粹的好与坏。</p><p>为什么国际上选择提前一天进行移仓的机构很多?</p><p><strong>因为从与国际市场的对接程度上看,较晚的移仓时间实际上为投资者提供了更为充分的自主决策时间</strong>。银行移仓的时间越早,也就意味着该行的客户不能参与当月主力合约交易的日子越多。因为在移仓之后,国际市场上该合约仍在交易,但银行的账户原油客户已经不能交易了。如果没有出现负油价这个黑天鹅,“原油宝”的设计其实更贴近国际期货市场的实际运行状态。</p><p>但不可否认的是,这种贴近市场的设计同时也让银行的客户更多地暴露于极端情况下的风险之中。所以很难用简单的“好”或者“坏”进行定性。</p><p>但在现实世界,一旦客户出现大额亏损,谁还管你产品设计背后是什么理念。所以,今后银行只能努力让自己的产品在应对极端情形时更加具有弹性。这就是服务业的悲哀:你认为你有没有错经常不重要,重要的是你的服务对象认为你有没有错。</p><p><strong>2.</strong><strong>没有提前想到原油期货负价格的可能性</strong></p><p>CME提前一周发了公告,提示了负价格的可能性。可以说CME非常不地道,甚至有些耍流氓。如此重大的市场规则改变,事先没有进行充分的市场沟通,留给金融机构调整系统的时间也很短。</p><p>笔者在前面已经说了,从合同执行上看,中行未将价格可能变为负值的可能性通过短信等形式告知投资者并不构成违约,但在银行内部风控的角度出发,应该对此有所警觉,毕竟考虑极端情况是风控的责任之一。同时,美国人修改市场规则也不是一次两次了,经常令市场大哗。</p><p>当然,风控相关人员可能觉得十分委屈。毕竟从大学时的专业学习到工作后的多年实践,负价格问题从来就没有进入过大家的脑海,这完全是个新生事物。</p><p>但现实就是这么残酷,一旦出事,亏损的客户绝对不会为你考虑。不知者不罪是不存在的。“原油宝”事件给金融机构提了个醒,今后必须高度重视小概率事件。就算你觉得某件事打死也不会发生,也最好提前和大家说清楚。</p><p><strong>四、如何将“原油宝”事件的社会效益最大化</strong></p><p>前面说的都是糟心的内容。但生活总要继续,除了围殴“原油宝”的设计者之外,我们其实还有积极的事情可以做。</p><p>“原油宝”出现争议之后,监管机构要求各银行对旗下的产品进行自查,各家银行也暂停了账户原油的新账户开户。这些都可以理解,也是在事件调查完全水落石出之前比较正常的反应。</p><p>银行开展业务必须遵守展业三原则,即了解你的客户、了解你的业务和尽职审查。监管部门完全可以通过深入调查搞清楚到底是产品本身有问题,还是营销环节出了问题,还是银行的内部风控出了问题。哪里出了问题就解决哪个问题,但不能仅仅由于有人亏损就将该类产品一棒子打死。</p><p>因为没有绝对安全的金融工具,如果看到风险事件就彻底封杀某一个甚至某一类产品,最终的结果一定是过度约束下的金融体系难以发展,过度保护下的投资者群体无法成长。</p><p>“原油宝”事件是一个难得的全民教育机会。</p><p>“原油宝”事件充分暴露了大众对衍生金融工具投资相关知识的匮乏,目前网络上关于“原油宝”的解读文章也良莠不齐,不少文章连基本的常识都没有,很难起到正视听、开民智的作用,急需一个权威的信息渠道向大众普及衍生金融工具的相关知识。</p><p>试想,如果我们有一个权威的渠道,将各家金融机构的账户原油产品合同一条条地解释给公众(这些都是公开的资料,谈不上泄露商业机密),并对其中涉及到的各类知识加以介绍,对其中的关键风险进行解读,借着当前如此高的舆论关注度,无疑将大为提升公众对衍生金融工具的认知水平,对于金融机构提升产品设计和风控能力也会起到很好的促进作用。</p><p><strong>总结一下:</strong></p><p>根据目前已经公开的资料,笔者认为:</p><p>目前舆论过度关注“原油宝”多头的损失,忽视了空头的盈利,本质上是对期货投机零和博弈特性的不了解。</p><p>从合同执行角度看,银行并无明显的违约嫌疑,银行也并未因合同执行而获得非法收益。</p><p>“原油宝”自身的产品设计并不完美,但也谈不上违法。各家银行同类产品在设计上的区别不是简单的“好”“坏”之别,而是在把握投资者自由度与市场风险的平衡关系上侧重点不同。</p><p>“原油宝”遭遇了负油价的黑天鹅,但市场提前一周已经有了蛛丝马迹,银行风控未能给予足够重视,这虽然构不成违约,但提示金融机构未来产品设计需要更加重视极端情况。</p><p>没有完美无瑕的金融产品,包括银行存款在内,有人亏损不是封杀的理由,产品的公平性、合法性才是监管重点。在参与全球竞争的大环境下,对国内金融机构和投资者的过度约束和保护都将留下很大隐患。</p><p>以“原油宝”事件为契机,大力加强投资者衍生金融工具投资相关教育,成本低、社会效益大。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200428123201334d2351x9vhcrn1am\"/><p>长按二维码关注中行原油宝事件最新进展 查看实时原油价格</p><p>(本文作者介绍:建信金融资产投资有限公司研究主管。)</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>韩会师:我们正在浪费掉中行原油宝事件</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n韩会师:我们正在浪费掉中行原油宝事件\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-28 12:26 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202004281232027afe78d3&s=b><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文/新浪财经意见领袖专栏作家 韩会师“原油宝”事件本可以成为我国衍生金融工具市场发展的一个标志性事件。不仅苦主们不断“鸣冤”,没有投资“原油宝”的广大群众也在热情吃瓜。如果处理得当,这将是一次极佳的衍生金融工具知识普及机会、投资者风险教育机会、金融机构内控水平提高的机会、监管部门完善市场纠纷解决机制的机会。但遗憾的是,过去一周,笔者看到的几乎都是对“原油宝”设计者的舆论围殴,偶尔有几个试图从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202004281232027afe78d3&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5d015cecb7c07cac91ad41d21b12463","relate_stocks":{"DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","USO":"美国原油ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","03988":"中国银行","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202004281232027afe78d3&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2030482848","content_text":"文/新浪财经意见领袖专栏作家 韩会师“原油宝”事件本可以成为我国衍生金融工具市场发展的一个标志性事件。不仅苦主们不断“鸣冤”,没有投资“原油宝”的广大群众也在热情吃瓜。如果处理得当,这将是一次极佳的衍生金融工具知识普及机会、投资者风险教育机会、金融机构内控水平提高的机会、监管部门完善市场纠纷解决机制的机会。但遗憾的是,过去一周,笔者看到的几乎都是对“原油宝”设计者的舆论围殴,偶尔有几个试图从产品设计和合同条款执行角度来还原事件经过的声音,也是小心翼翼地浅尝辄止,生怕得罪同仇敌忾的广大网友,但即使这样也仍然避免不了遭遇狂喷的下场。这种舆论氛围如果发展下去,最终结果很可能是衍生金融工具市场的发展再一次遭遇重大倒退,境内企业和个人投资者合法合规的风险管理工具和投资理财工具减少,从而在中长期提高企业经营风险,降低个人的投资理财能力。同时,投资者的认知能力不会有任何提升,今后换个场景,继续踩雷。近日有消息说中行暂时不会追缴客户欠款。这个消息可能会令大家稍微冷静一点,笔者也借此机会从产品设计和合同条款的角度分析一下该事件。供各位朋友参考。提前预告一下:如果过去的一周,在网络舆论的轰炸下您已经对“原油宝”深恶痛绝,那么以下文字可能令您十分不舒服。但没办法,真实的世界经常很残酷。一、“原油宝”是注定有人将大额亏损的投资品,但这并不意味着它有原罪必须承认,部分“原油宝”投资者的损失十分令人同情。无论是谁,突然听说自己100%保证金买的产品不但亏损殆尽,而且还倒欠银行一笔钱,绝对都是令人崩溃的。“原油宝”本质上是为境内客户提供挂钩境外原油期货交易的服务。其基本运行机制是银行在境外期货交易所开设大账户,接受境内投资者交易指令后,汇总到境外的大账户执行指令,同时对境内客户收取100%的保证金。在这个交易结构里,银行充当交易通道,不是主动投资业务。所以,很多舆论认为“原油宝”(或者其他银行类似的账户原油产品)的收益率受银行交易员的交易能力影响,这是非常大的误解。提示1:如果投资者在投资“原油宝”的时候被销售人员刻意隐瞒了上述内容,这就属于商业欺诈,没什么好说的,上法庭告状就可以了。但这种情况应该不存在,因为“原油宝”的合同里写了相关内容,不存在刻意隐瞒的问题。提示2:如果投资者没有看懂合同,但销售人员告诉他们基础资产不是原油期货,“原油宝”就是个保本的或者亏损风险不大的理财产品,那么这也属于欺诈,不属于本文讨论的范围。提示3:如果投资者确实知道自己投资的是挂钩境外原油期货的产品,也看了合同,那么您可以继续往下看,本文仅针对这类投资者。首先要明确一点:在投资之前,投资者是否了解包括原油期货在内的衍生金融工具交易是个零和博弈?所谓零和博弈,就是您赚钱必然有人亏钱,不存在双赢的局面。所以投资者在买入“原油宝”的时候就应该对亏钱的可能性有清晰的预判。否则就说明,您对这个产品了解很有限。此次因“原油宝”巨亏的多头投资者亏的钱去哪里了?不是被银行拿走了,而是被空头赚走了。现在舆论一边倒地同情多头,根本听不到赚了大钱的空头的声音,这种有选择性的信息传播危害很大。难道“原油宝”的投资者都是多头吗?肯定不是。对于有实际货物交割需求的市场参与者来说,比如石油生产企业和石油炼化企业,原油期货是个非常有价值的套期保值工具。但对于没有实盘支撑的纯粹的投机者来说,所有衍生金融工具都是一个赌博(或者说投机)的工具而已。但这个赌博工具对于有实盘支撑的投资者来说很重要,因为参与人多了之后,市场的流动性会更好。很明显,“原油宝”的投资者是没有实盘支撑的,大家无论多头还是空头,都是投机者,银行充当中介。如果要求银行赔偿多头的损失,那么银行逻辑上应该有权力要求空头退回收益。但很明显,没有空头会同意的,银行也没有这个能力。总之,如果您明确知道“原油宝”的产品性质,就要有巨亏的心理准备,它就是一个高风险但可能带来高收益的产品,客户亏损巨大值得同情,但并不构成该产品本身的罪责。二、银行到底有没有履行合同中规定的义务看完上面的内容,估计很多朋友已经气死了。因为您可以列举出一大堆的理由证明多头的亏损是可以避免的,既然是可以避免的,那么责任就应该由银行负。但实际情况果真如此简单吗?我们看一下这些广为流传的理由吧。理由1.工商银行和建设银行的账户原油客户就没有遭遇负价格,只有“原油宝”踩雷,所以责任在“原油宝”包括“原油宝”在内,所有的账户原油产品都有一个移仓条款。也就是说,客户要和银行约好一个时间点,如果在这个时间点之前客户自己不把当月的期货合约平仓,那么到了该时点,就默认为客户授权银行替客户进行平仓,同时在下个月的期货合约上开仓。比如5月期货合约的到期日是4月21日(美国时间),那么在4月21日之前,银行就要和客户事先约定一个日子,将客户的5月合约转为6月的合约。至于是选择在4月20日还是4月15日、4月16日,都可以。这里的重点是:移仓时间是客户和银行事先约定的。所有“原油宝”的投资者在签署投资合约时,就意味着已经同意了中行在4月20日22点启动移仓的产品设计。既然银行没有隐瞒移仓时间问题,银行就不必承担法律责任。工行和建行由于移仓时间比较早,的确成功规避了原油期货负价格的风险,但这并非工行和建行聪明,它们只是在履行和客户签署的合约而已。换句话说,工行和建行想推迟移仓时间是不可能的,想提前移仓也不可能,因为合同里规定了它们必须在那个时点移仓。再进一步讲。千万不要认为工行和建行较早进行移仓的策略是没有争议的。强调一下,如果您不知道这一点,说明您对期货市场的了解不够,这个产品不适合您。为什么?较早进行移仓的确规避了余下来的几个交易日可能出现“坏价格”的风险,但同时也放弃了可能出现“好价格”的收益。当然,这里面的好与坏都是相对的:多头的好价格就是空头的坏价格,反之亦然。对于那些在当月已经出现亏损,并且认为接下来的几个交易日价格可能翻转的投资者而言,他们愿意较早移仓吗?举例而言。假设A行规定5月的账户原油交易在X日移仓,B行规定在X+5日移仓。在X日当天,当月的期货价格是20美元,X+1月的期货价格是30美元。有个A行多头客户的买入价是25美元,现在已经亏了5美元,但他预计未来3天之内5月期货价可能涨到40美元。如果A行不在X日移仓,且该客户的预测成真,那么该客户就可能扭亏为盈。但如果A行在X日移仓,该客户不但在5月合约上亏了5美元,在移仓时由于远月升水,又要亏损10美元。所以该客户一定是非常不甘心的。还有一点很重要。“原油宝”的移仓规则不是今年4月份才定下来的,过去几年它一直是这个移仓策略,大家以前不觉得有问题,现在出事了就要求银行承担责任,这符合市场规则吗?再进一步讲,如果中行预测到了今天的局面,效仿工行和建行,提前进行了移仓,中行肯定死得很惨。因为它公然违背了和客户的合同约定。无论客户赚不赚钱,都可以告得它体无完肤。既然如此,换做是您,就算您已经预测到要出事,您敢提前移仓吗?理由2.中行没有替客户强行平仓,所以中行应该承担责任这个理由看上去是充分的,根据合同的规定,强平的触发条件是保证金比例降低到20%。如果强行平仓成功,客户的确可以避免一部分损失。但实际情况果真如此简单吗?我们先看一下合同里面的全部约定。上述合同中的“乙方”就是银行。上述合约内容的含义是:如果客户的保证金不足,银行会提示追加保证金,如果客户不追加,那么银行可以启动强平,最终的目标是使客户的保证金维持在最低保证金之上的水平。请看好,是最终的目标,不是一定要完成的任务。您从上述合同表述里肯定看不出一点“强平并且保证客户的资金余额在一定水平之上是银行义务”的意思。为什么?是银行故意偷奸耍滑吗?还真不是。因为在实际的市场操作中强平的结果是难以预测的。有过2015年股市配资经验的投资者应该比较清楚,在市场崩溃时,经常会出现价格断崖式下跌,事先规定的预警线和强平线很快就会被跌破,而且几乎没有成交量。所谓的强平并不是确保客户能够保留某个最低的本金余额,而是金融机构开始抛售的起点而已。一旦抛售开始,鬼才知道结果是什么。所以,如果您将强平作为要求银行承担损失的理由,只能说您并不了解强平的含义。此外,还有一点。根据中行的声明,在20日22点时,客户的保证金仍然在20%的水平线之上,所以银行也不会启动强平。真正满足客户强平条件的时间是在20日22点之后,但这时银行已经启动移仓程序。下面的内容很重要:一旦客户没有在移仓时间到来之前自己平仓,那么就等于默认银行替其进行移仓操作。移仓一旦开始,银行就要进行大笔的集中平仓,在此过程中客户不再参与交易,因为客户一旦参与进来,银行就没办法进行集中操作了,这也是为什么各家银行都要和客户约定一个明确的移仓时间的原因。由于是大账户的集中平仓,当然也就不涉及具体的每一个客户的强平问题了,只能等交易结束看结果。如果银行不能在移仓时间段找到足够的交易对手,也就是市场流动性很差,那么就可能出现非常糟糕的价格。一般而言,距离到期日越近,市场的流动性越差,越容易出现极端价格。“原油宝”的移仓时间段由于距离5月合约的到期日很近,仅有一天时间,是个容易出现流动性问题的时点。但此前这个时点从没出现过大问题,全球机构投资者选择这个时点进行移仓的很多,所以一直没引起市场关注。此次悲剧绝对是打了银行一个措手不及,多头客户更是损失惨重。但尽管如此,由于银行的操作并未违反和客户签署的合同。无论我们如何诟病其交易策略,但在法律上都不足以构成要求银行承担多头损失的充分理由。听上去很残酷吧。的确很残酷。但合同就是合同。在看网络留言时,笔者有个强烈的感觉,就是绝大部分网友和投资者其实都没有仔细看“原油宝”的合同条款,也不清楚期货交易的基本结构,主要还是凭着自己的直觉进行判断。这在投资中是很危险的。理由3.中行没有向客户提前说明原油期货价格可能跌到负值,导致客户受到误导,所以中行应该承担损失这个理由听上去也很有道理,但仍然是我们生活直觉上的道理,不是法理。4月15日,CME发布测试公告称,如果出现零或者负价格,CME的所有交易和清算系统将继续正常运行,所有常规交易和头寸处理都可以在清算中执行。很明显,CME已经提前预料到了原油期货价格可能出现负值。至于其中是否有阴谋,这不是本文的重点。在此之前,全世界的交易员都没有经历过期货价格为负值的情形,所以大多数人也没将这个公告太放在心上。从这个角度看,银行没有通过短信等方式向客户提示期货价格可能出现负值似乎是有一定责任的。但不幸的是,合同中并没有规定,银行要将何种信息及时向投资者通报。其实也不可能有这类约定,因为对于期货投资而言,可能影响客户收益的因素太多了,任何中介机构都做不到对客户提供面面俱到的信息服务,也没有中介机构敢把这种服务承诺写在合同上。做不到怎么办,只能是默认来投资“原油宝”的客户是对市场有了解,并且会随时关注市场信息的人。而且CME的公告属于市场公开信息,这里并不存在银行蓄意隐瞒的问题。所以,银行如果提前告知投资者有负油价的风险的确很好,但如果没有告知,也并不构成实质的违约行为。我们在评价一个金融产品时,核心是看它是否对交易双方是公平的,而不是它是否会导致某些人出现亏损。我们固然可以说,“原油宝”的设计是不完美的,但不完美本身并不违法,特别是这种不完美已经通过合同的形式做了清晰的描述之后,只要在合同的执行过程中银行没有违背合同的举动,那么客户就很难要求银行赔偿投资损失。如果您是一个亏损的多头客户,看到这里一定很难过。我亏了大钱,但法律好像还不站在我这边。说到底,还是那句话。“原油宝”的投资者们,你们真的仔细看过合同吗?你们真的知道自己投资的是什么吗?从今以后记住一句话:如果你看不懂合同,无论是谁推销给你的金融产品,都不要参与。如果您忘了这句话,总有一天还会吃大亏。三、银行内部风控需要提高对小概率事件的警惕程度如果说在“原油宝”事件中谁有明确的责任,可能只能把板子打在产品设计上。如果再加一个,还可以将风险管理上没有提前想到负油价也算上。1.产品设计前文已经提到,“原油宝”的移仓时间比较晚,而移仓时间越靠近当月的到期日,越可能遭遇流动性不足导致的极端价格,这个问题在产品设计时是可以被预测到的。但上述缺陷并不是绝对的。还是那句话,成熟的投资者绝对不会用“好”或“坏”这种贴标签式的方式评价某个金融产品,就像我们不能简单地用“好人”或者“坏人”来评价别人一样。因为世上就没有纯粹的好与坏。为什么国际上选择提前一天进行移仓的机构很多?因为从与国际市场的对接程度上看,较晚的移仓时间实际上为投资者提供了更为充分的自主决策时间。银行移仓的时间越早,也就意味着该行的客户不能参与当月主力合约交易的日子越多。因为在移仓之后,国际市场上该合约仍在交易,但银行的账户原油客户已经不能交易了。如果没有出现负油价这个黑天鹅,“原油宝”的设计其实更贴近国际期货市场的实际运行状态。但不可否认的是,这种贴近市场的设计同时也让银行的客户更多地暴露于极端情况下的风险之中。所以很难用简单的“好”或者“坏”进行定性。但在现实世界,一旦客户出现大额亏损,谁还管你产品设计背后是什么理念。所以,今后银行只能努力让自己的产品在应对极端情形时更加具有弹性。这就是服务业的悲哀:你认为你有没有错经常不重要,重要的是你的服务对象认为你有没有错。2.没有提前想到原油期货负价格的可能性CME提前一周发了公告,提示了负价格的可能性。可以说CME非常不地道,甚至有些耍流氓。如此重大的市场规则改变,事先没有进行充分的市场沟通,留给金融机构调整系统的时间也很短。笔者在前面已经说了,从合同执行上看,中行未将价格可能变为负值的可能性通过短信等形式告知投资者并不构成违约,但在银行内部风控的角度出发,应该对此有所警觉,毕竟考虑极端情况是风控的责任之一。同时,美国人修改市场规则也不是一次两次了,经常令市场大哗。当然,风控相关人员可能觉得十分委屈。毕竟从大学时的专业学习到工作后的多年实践,负价格问题从来就没有进入过大家的脑海,这完全是个新生事物。但现实就是这么残酷,一旦出事,亏损的客户绝对不会为你考虑。不知者不罪是不存在的。“原油宝”事件给金融机构提了个醒,今后必须高度重视小概率事件。就算你觉得某件事打死也不会发生,也最好提前和大家说清楚。四、如何将“原油宝”事件的社会效益最大化前面说的都是糟心的内容。但生活总要继续,除了围殴“原油宝”的设计者之外,我们其实还有积极的事情可以做。“原油宝”出现争议之后,监管机构要求各银行对旗下的产品进行自查,各家银行也暂停了账户原油的新账户开户。这些都可以理解,也是在事件调查完全水落石出之前比较正常的反应。银行开展业务必须遵守展业三原则,即了解你的客户、了解你的业务和尽职审查。监管部门完全可以通过深入调查搞清楚到底是产品本身有问题,还是营销环节出了问题,还是银行的内部风控出了问题。哪里出了问题就解决哪个问题,但不能仅仅由于有人亏损就将该类产品一棒子打死。因为没有绝对安全的金融工具,如果看到风险事件就彻底封杀某一个甚至某一类产品,最终的结果一定是过度约束下的金融体系难以发展,过度保护下的投资者群体无法成长。“原油宝”事件是一个难得的全民教育机会。“原油宝”事件充分暴露了大众对衍生金融工具投资相关知识的匮乏,目前网络上关于“原油宝”的解读文章也良莠不齐,不少文章连基本的常识都没有,很难起到正视听、开民智的作用,急需一个权威的信息渠道向大众普及衍生金融工具的相关知识。试想,如果我们有一个权威的渠道,将各家金融机构的账户原油产品合同一条条地解释给公众(这些都是公开的资料,谈不上泄露商业机密),并对其中涉及到的各类知识加以介绍,对其中的关键风险进行解读,借着当前如此高的舆论关注度,无疑将大为提升公众对衍生金融工具的认知水平,对于金融机构提升产品设计和风控能力也会起到很好的促进作用。总结一下:根据目前已经公开的资料,笔者认为:目前舆论过度关注“原油宝”多头的损失,忽视了空头的盈利,本质上是对期货投机零和博弈特性的不了解。从合同执行角度看,银行并无明显的违约嫌疑,银行也并未因合同执行而获得非法收益。“原油宝”自身的产品设计并不完美,但也谈不上违法。各家银行同类产品在设计上的区别不是简单的“好”“坏”之别,而是在把握投资者自由度与市场风险的平衡关系上侧重点不同。“原油宝”遭遇了负油价的黑天鹅,但市场提前一周已经有了蛛丝马迹,银行风控未能给予足够重视,这虽然构不成违约,但提示金融机构未来产品设计需要更加重视极端情况。没有完美无瑕的金融产品,包括银行存款在内,有人亏损不是封杀的理由,产品的公平性、合法性才是监管重点。在参与全球竞争的大环境下,对国内金融机构和投资者的过度约束和保护都将留下很大隐患。以“原油宝”事件为契机,大力加强投资者衍生金融工具投资相关教育,成本低、社会效益大。长按二维码关注中行原油宝事件最新进展 查看实时原油价格(本文作者介绍:建信金融资产投资有限公司研究主管。)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922264197,"gmtCreate":1587565157119,"gmtModify":1704364799935,"author":{"id":"3548245647047170","authorId":"3548245647047170","name":"飞翔的企鹅逆袭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18069cb6a59084b57e3dfb756c06a8f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548245647047170","idStr":"3548245647047170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VAL\">$华仕伯(VAL)$</a>估计要破产了,庄家砸盘不玩了","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a>听说中行原油定了05原油结算价-37.63美元每桶。中行客户今天都收到短信,银行让补钱。抄底本金没了还要倒贴钱,好惨。我工行还有60 桶油,我在想要不要拿出来。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a>听说中行原油定了05原油结算价-37.63美元每桶。中行客户今天都收到短信,银行让补钱。抄底本金没了还要倒贴钱,好惨。我工行还有60 桶油,我在想要不要拿出来。。","text":"$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$听说中行原油定了05原油结算价-37.63美元每桶。中行客户今天都收到短信,银行让补钱。抄底本金没了还要倒贴钱,好惨。我工行还有60 桶油,我在想要不要拿出来。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922826079","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3472159901952938","authorId":"3472159901952938","name":"阿拉斯加北极熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27f911eef7a7626bdd4e7981a60ea699","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3472159901952938","idStr":"3472159901952938"},"content":"消息确定真实可信吗,那这个也忒,,,不是强制平仓吗?这个感觉有点狠了,不对,是太tmd狠了","text":"消息确定真实可信吗,那这个也忒,,,不是强制平仓吗?这个感觉有点狠了,不对,是太tmd狠了","html":"消息确定真实可信吗,那这个也忒,,,不是强制平仓吗?这个感觉有点狠了,不对,是太tmd狠了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":926003806,"gmtCreate":1586916859805,"gmtModify":1704362517269,"author":{"id":"3548245647047170","authorId":"3548245647047170","name":"飞翔的企鹅逆袭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18069cb6a59084b57e3dfb756c06a8f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548245647047170","idStr":"3548245647047170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a>今天工行移仓。微博一片哀嚎。升水7美元,7*7=49。持有成本飞起来了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a>今天工行移仓。微博一片哀嚎。升水7美元,7*7=49。持有成本飞起来了。","text":"$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$今天工行移仓。微博一片哀嚎。升水7美元,7*7=49。持有成本飞起来了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/926003806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"232636176534665","authorId":"232636176534665","name":"师小晨","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"232636176534665","idStr":"232636176534665"},"content":"没看明白,比如中行现在143,我买多,换合约了,价格,203,难道不是我143的成本直接赚了60","text":"没看明白,比如中行现在143,我买多,换合约了,价格,203,难道不是我143的成本直接赚了60","html":"没看明白,比如中行现在143,我买多,换合约了,价格,203,难道不是我143的成本直接赚了60"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928236024,"gmtCreate":1586788097068,"gmtModify":1704362028390,"author":{"id":"3548245647047170","authorId":"3548245647047170","name":"飞翔的企鹅逆袭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18069cb6a59084b57e3dfb756c06a8f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548245647047170","idStr":"3548245647047170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a>交行193买的原油,一个小时后就停止交易了。之后就是转06期,06期价格210。现在是卖了止损,还是等自动转呢。大神们,请帮忙分析一下。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a>交行193买的原油,一个小时后就停止交易了。之后就是转06期,06期价格210。现在是卖了止损,还是等自动转呢。大神们,请帮忙分析一下。","text":"$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$交行193买的原油,一个小时后就停止交易了。之后就是转06期,06期价格210。现在是卖了止损,还是等自动转呢。大神们,请帮忙分析一下。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81ed35cd54e98bb5d52033fcce29ddea","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":28,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928236024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3486375086089651","authorId":"3486375086089651","name":"马云的信徒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a055009f9fc942f74669ffec2c35c74","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3486375086089651","idStr":"3486375086089651"},"content":"看中行","text":"看中行","html":"看中行"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928099754,"gmtCreate":1586414053078,"gmtModify":1704361209473,"author":{"id":"3548245647047170","authorId":"3548245647047170","name":"飞翔的企鹅逆袭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18069cb6a59084b57e3dfb756c06a8f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548245647047170","idStr":"3548245647047170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[喷血]老子光交手续费了,没想到一跌再跌"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":928236024,"gmtCreate":1586788097068,"gmtModify":1704362028390,"author":{"id":"3548245647047170","authorId":"3548245647047170","name":"飞翔的企鹅逆袭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18069cb6a59084b57e3dfb756c06a8f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548245647047170","authorIdStr":"3548245647047170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a>交行193买的原油,一个小时后就停止交易了。之后就是转06期,06期价格210。现在是卖了止损,还是等自动转呢。大神们,请帮忙分析一下。","listText":"<a 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08:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"百度宣布组建智能汽车公司,吉利为战略合作伙伴","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2102699479","media":"新浪科技","summary":"图注:图片来自网络新浪科技讯 1月11日早间消息,新浪科技独家获悉,百度宣布正式组建一家智能汽车公司,以整车制造商的身份进军汽车行业。吉利控股集团将成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。百度重装组建汽车公司,是在智能出行领域的重要战略布局。百度汽车公司选择中国领先的汽车公司吉利作为合作方,吉利控股集团出资成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。","content":"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d161675004243e76045c7c2a5937e7\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"315\"><span>图注:图片来自网络</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>科技讯 1月11日早间消息,新浪科技独家获悉,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>宣布正式组建一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>汽车公司,以整车制造商的身份进军汽车行业。吉利控股集团将成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。</p><p>新组建的百度汽车公司将面向乘用车市场,着眼于智能汽车的设计研发、生产制造、销售服务全产业链,传承百度的人工智能、互联网科技基因,利用Apollo自动驾驶能力,发挥在汽车智能化领域长达8年的经验优势,重塑智能汽车产品形态,要做智能出行时代的变革者。</p><p>百度汽车公司独立于母公司体系,保持自主运营;同时百度将人工智能、Apollo自动驾驶、小度车载、百度地图等核心技术全面赋能汽车公司,支持其快速成长。百度重装组建汽车公司,是在智能出行领域的重要战略布局。</p><p>百度汽车公司选择中国领先的汽车公司吉利作为合作方,吉利控股集团出资成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。据悉,下一步双方将基于吉利最新研发的全球领先纯电动架构--浩瀚SEA智能进化体验架构,在智能汽车制造相关领域展开紧密合作,共同打造下一代智能汽车。</p><p>吉利控股集团公众号:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jFQ7IGu6y_qjGbOpffYPQ\" target=\"_blank\">吉利、百度宣布组建智能电动汽车公司</a></p>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>百度宣布组建智能汽车公司,吉利为战略合作伙伴</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-01-11/doc-iiznezxt1804059.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d161675004243e76045c7c2a5937e7","relate_stocks":{"161033":"智能汽车","399432":"智能汽车","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-01-11/doc-iiznezxt1804059.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2102699479","content_text":"图注:图片来自网络新浪科技讯 1月11日早间消息,新浪科技独家获悉,百度宣布正式组建一家智能汽车公司,以整车制造商的身份进军汽车行业。吉利控股集团将成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。新组建的百度汽车公司将面向乘用车市场,着眼于智能汽车的设计研发、生产制造、销售服务全产业链,传承百度的人工智能、互联网科技基因,利用Apollo自动驾驶能力,发挥在汽车智能化领域长达8年的经验优势,重塑智能汽车产品形态,要做智能出行时代的变革者。百度汽车公司独立于母公司体系,保持自主运营;同时百度将人工智能、Apollo自动驾驶、小度车载、百度地图等核心技术全面赋能汽车公司,支持其快速成长。百度重装组建汽车公司,是在智能出行领域的重要战略布局。百度汽车公司选择中国领先的汽车公司吉利作为合作方,吉利控股集团出资成为新公司的战略合作伙伴。据悉,下一步双方将基于吉利最新研发的全球领先纯电动架构--浩瀚SEA智能进化体验架构,在智能汽车制造相关领域展开紧密合作,共同打造下一代智能汽车。吉利控股集团公众号:吉利、百度宣布组建智能电动汽车公司","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924131677,"gmtCreate":1588250623799,"gmtModify":1704367096741,"author":{"id":"3548245647047170","authorId":"3548245647047170","name":"飞翔的企鹅逆袭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18069cb6a59084b57e3dfb756c06a8f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548245647047170","authorIdStr":"3548245647047170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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