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本期获奖幸运观众
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本期获奖幸运观众
05-28
$开心汽车(KXIN)$
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-10-26
$联络智能(LLIT)$
散了吧,散了吧,筹码不值钱了
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-03-30
$波音(BA)$
马尼拉机场的什么型号?
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-03-18
你TM的还说中国病毒,你特不靠谱才是病毒
白宫敦促限制卖空
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-03-16
$伟源控股(01343)$
为什么涨啊?
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-03-09
$三倍做多标普500ETF(UPRO)$
为什么挂单卖不出
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-03-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
信仰起飞🛫起飞🛫
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-28
$克利夫兰生物实验室(CBLI)$
高潮已过了
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-27
$克利夫兰生物实验室(CBLI)$
停牌意味什么?
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-20
$跟谁学(GSX)$
空了两天,肾都掏空了
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-19
$卓越教育集团(03978)$
总裁自愿降薪50%,总监30%,削减各样经费,卓越正积极应对疫情对企业的影响。[强]
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-14
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
大队长在吗?带我走一波
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-14
$小米集团-W(01810)$
余总,我X你X……是不是你做空了!哈哈哈
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-14
$小米集团-W(01810)$
are you OK?
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-11
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
抱歉,原内容已删除
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-08
$吉利德科学(GILD)$
……走了走了错过了dao
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-07
$吉利德科学(GILD)$
李医生,走好
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-06
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
玩一晚上,等下又是蚊子肉
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
请问做空是需要t2吗?
本期获奖幸运观众
2020-02-05
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
给个机会平仓就行了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.ushknews.com/","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2020665793","content_text":"据纽约邮报:美国白宫敦促限制卖空。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310801429323808,"gmtCreate":1716906582832,"gmtModify":1716906585868,"author":{"id":"3542677164433879","authorId":"3542677164433879","name":"本期获奖幸运观众","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d66a4d398c4132484f1d27af810cf0a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542677164433879","authorIdStr":"3542677164433879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">$开心汽车(KXIN)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">$开心汽车(KXIN)$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLIT\">$联络智能(LLIT)$</a>散了吧,散了吧,筹码不值钱了","text":"$联络智能(LLIT)$散了吧,散了吧,筹码不值钱了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301486968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964166032,"gmtCreate":1584325612826,"gmtModify":1704353485950,"author":{"id":"3542677164433879","authorId":"3542677164433879","name":"本期获奖幸运观众","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d66a4d398c4132484f1d27af810cf0a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542677164433879","authorIdStr":"3542677164433879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01343\">$伟源控股(01343)$</a>为什么涨啊?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01343\">$伟源控股(01343)$</a>为什么涨啊?","text":"$伟源控股(01343)$为什么涨啊?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964166032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":914578322,"gmtCreate":1581426553266,"gmtModify":1704344118098,"author":{"id":"3542677164433879","authorId":"3542677164433879","name":"本期获奖幸运观众","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d66a4d398c4132484f1d27af810cf0a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542677164433879","authorIdStr":"3542677164433879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/914578322","repostId":"1178014820","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178014820","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1581342679,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178014820?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-10 21:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"疫情对经济影响概述:迎接不平静但充满希望的新时代","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178014820","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"提前看清疫情对经济的影响,把握即将到来的“报复性”反弹,是目前的重要工作。","content":"<p><span>2020年伊始,一场突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情又把我们拉回到曾经的“非典”时期,但今天,中国经济与资本市场的发展阶段、体量、结构已完全不同,市场的参与者也已经是全新的一代人。所以,纵然故事情节似曾相识,结局与影响,却注定不同。</span></p><p><span>回顾2003,“非典”疫情对市场形成短期冲击,二季度社会消费品零售增速呈“V型”走势,股市中商业贸易板块跌幅居前。但疫情平息后消费迅速反弹并在 2004 年创下了新高。今天,新冠肺炎疫情对经济的负面影响肯定要大于非典,一季度经济增速可能因此下降2个点以上。</span> 用<span>任泽平团队的研究数据来看:仅春节七天,电影票房损失70亿,餐饮零售损失5000亿,旅游市场损失5000亿,这三个行业的直接经济损失就超过一万亿,占到了2019年第一季度GDP的4.6%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b9575db1d21983f329066b354e6dd2d\" /></p><p><span>有人说,“非典”疫情催生了后来的互联网电商巨头淘宝和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>;还有人说,“非典”疫情吹响了互联网社会化大普及的总攻集结号……危机危机,危与机永远是相伴而生的。灾难不必歌颂,恐慌与痛苦也无需掩饰,但我们相信,春天绝对不会缺席。因此,提前看清疫情对经济的影响,把握即将到来的“报复性”反弹,就是投资者目前最需要做的工作。</span></p><p>一,<b>股市方面</b></p><p><span>春节前后,新冠肺炎疫情的爆发打断了A股持续上攻的趋势,疫情后的股市将会如何发展?我们认为,因为疫情本身注定是阶段性的,因此它带来的冲击,无论大小,都应该是阶段性的、一次性的,不会改变中国经济长期向好的基本面,其负面影响会随着病毒的消退而很快逆转。从历史经验来看,非典时期股票市场的调整仅持续了八个交易日,这个从二月初市场的表现已经得到验证。</span></p><p><b>底部已现,重点配置复苏主线</b></p><p><span>预计本轮疫情拐点后,前期涨幅较高的行业中,纯事件驱动或避险类板块迎来补跌,但蕴含中期商业逻辑的板块即使阶段性回吐部分涨幅,在产业逻辑支撑下仍具备重新向上动力。此外,疫情前表现较为强势,受疫情影响较小、产业逻辑依然稳固的板块也将逐步回归。</span></p><p><span>A股在经历大跌之后的赔率已较为吸引,冲击底部已现。若复工后疫情拐点改善进一步清晰,A股行业轮动将沿受疫情影响由小到大的顺序向中期主线回归。当前涨幅较高的受益板块中,纯事件驱动类强势股补跌,具有中期产业逻辑的板块即便面临一定调整也仍具备重新上行动力,而事件影响有限、中期产业逻辑稳固的板块亦将逐步回归。配置把握两条主线:</span></p><p><span>(1)短期事件受益、中期逻辑支撑;</span></p><p><span>(2)事件影响有限,中期向上逻辑稳固。</span> <b><span>建议配置:互联网医疗、游戏、新能源车、消费电子。</span></b></p><p>【详细了解】</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010229771\" target=\"_blank\">面对疫情冲击,市场受到的影响会有多大?</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1181487505\" target=\"_blank\">2020年2月策略月报:疫情过后的几大投资方向</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1166471274\" target=\"_blank\">若疫情迎来拐点,配置什么?</a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/097c9eb39c9e382c813f1c868a260204\" /></p><p>二,<b>行业经济方面</b></p><p>1 楼市能抄底吗?</p><p>十七年前的“非典”<span>,让2003年北京4月和5月的商品房预售平均减少了3296套,降幅高达36%。同样也让全国楼市的开发速度和销售量都出现了大幅度的降低。但疫情结束后的8月31日,《国务院关于促进房地产市场持续健康发展的通知》出台,让非典的影响彻底消失,也让中国楼市驶入了一个新的快车道,开启了十几年的长期上涨。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cc5d886444e0b88638e370928f7b069\" /></p><p>但是今天的情况显然不同,<span>高层大概率不会采取突然大幅放水的措施,而是会多频次、小步快跑地进行降息降准,输血经济,维稳楼市。不要以为开发商会断臂求生,更大的可能是短暂优惠力度火力全开之后,开发商就会顺着刺激政策的利好,再现价涨行情。二手房也会随之夯实底部,价量齐起。想薅羊毛,一定要抓住极短的窗口期,该买大胆买。一旦他们活过来,价格上调,就啥也没有了。疫情过后1-2个月是最好的买入时机。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010770229\" target=\"_blank\">疫情之下,对于2020年楼市的5个关键判断</a></p><p>2 生鲜电商的大机会来了?</p><p><span>“你抢着菜了吗?”已经成为新冠肺炎疫情下,除“你抢着口罩了吗?”外另一句流行的打招呼方式。而居家隔离、不敢出门的人们纷纷涌向了买菜App,生鲜电商“压力山大”,货物短缺、人员匮乏、运力不足、系统崩溃等等问题随之而来。这种火热的状况,对于在2019年“九死一生”的生鲜电商来说,是一次机会吗?</span></p><p>本次<span>肺炎疫情对生鲜电商来说确实是机遇:一方面是培养用户的消费习惯;另一方面,在过去,供应链是制约生鲜电商最大因素,这次疫情是考验和做强供应链的机会,有利于吸引资本进入。但同时,如果能力不足,则有可能在此期间被逐渐淘汰。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010243226\" target=\"_blank\">三问疫情下的"抢菜大战":要持续多久?是多大机会?</a></p><p>3 互联网行业迎来又一春?《王者荣耀》的爆发未必是好事</p><p>前面提到,有观点认为当年的“非典”疫情成就了淘宝、京东等互联网电商,但在今天,<span>互联网与传统经济的结合已经非常非常深了,所以在传统经济受到打击以后,互联网受到的传导性是非常明显的,再也无法像17年前一样,坐收增长的红利。例如中小企业死掉没有人去百度做广告,小微企业餐馆死掉,没有去美团做推广,一些供应链电商背后的厂商破产,就没有人去提供<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、聚划算的货源。</span></p><p><span>有人说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>王者荣耀一天20亿的收入,对腾讯来讲赚得很开心。但事实上这反映了危机:大家都闲下来,闲到一个游戏可以一天赚20亿。中国这样一个已经增速放缓的经济体,出现大家都闲下来的情况,并不是什么好事。</span></p><p>从机会角度看,<span>谁能从本次疫情中找到最大的新需求增量,谁的未来就最光明。现在,我们对疫情的了解、围堵、跟踪、分析,基本上都有ai+big data+cloud的影子,这是对产业互联网能够提升政府治理能力、企业竞争能力最好的宣传,如果产业互联网可以持续发挥比较重要的作用的话,可能给中国整个toB/G端的互联网发展,带来真正的起飞的机会。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1164564036\" target=\"_blank\">疫情下的互联网行业投资指南</a></p><p>4 各行各业</p><p><span>正常情况下,经济遭遇疫情、股灾等冲击,市场的自愈能力会促进经济复苏。如非典过后,经济强劲复苏,很快烫平了波动。又比如,春节七天,旅游市场损失5000亿,主要是需求被强行抑制。疫情之后,旅游需求增加,市场逐渐复苏,财富损失会得到弥补。</span></p><p><span>但是,有些损失是难以弥补、无法挽回的,比如因为疫情,冬季和春节的服装存货积压,田地里的蔬果腐烂。又比如,生命的消失,企业的消失,工人下岗,经济循环断裂。</span></p><p><span>每个行业的抗风险能力不同,每个行业、每个企业的负债率、现金流状况不同,每个企业所处的产业位置,所遭遇疫情的打击程度也不同,因而有必要区分对待。这次疫情跟非典类似,对产业的影响,存在一个规律路径:</span><span><b>冲击波从下游逐渐向中上游传递。</b></span><span>首当其冲的是第三产业,尤其是零售及服务业。电影、餐饮、旅游文娱、服装零售、交通运输、教育培训、金融服务、制造业,它们的命运会各有不同。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516bdf731ae0a8b5239ee2a9741b49\" /></p><p><b>电影业:</b><span>正常情况下,影视公司、经纪人公司以及电影工作者能够承担几个月甚至半年的空档,但是问题在于,中国电影本在寒冬期。去年下半年,电影拍摄、投资、产能都拦腰斩半,资本纷纷逃离,部分电影工作者失业、转业。如今疫情来袭,可谓雪上加霜。疫情过后影视会复苏,但我认为电影产业依然萧条。</span></p><p><b>餐饮业:</b><span>疫情过后,餐饮业会有什么改变?首先,不会有大改变,餐饮是刚需,需求稳定,而且饮食习惯很难改变。其次,酒店类餐厅恢复速度更慢,快餐类更快。这次疫情,多数传染案例来自聚集、聚餐。这给中国人喜欢的聚餐共食习惯以警醒,段时间内聚餐会减少。最后,人们会更注重餐饮卫生,培养分餐习惯,网上订餐、生鲜外卖有机会。</span></p><p><b>旅游业:</b><span>疫情后,景区尤其是大型观光景区的经济恢复会比较慢。大型景区,人流密集,短期内游客会选择回避,同时大型景区依赖黄金周。相反,短程自驾游、家庭游以及体验性旅游会成为趋势。</span></p><p><b>交通运输业:</b><span>最需要关注的群体是大规模的运输个体户,如出租车司机、网约车司机、大货车司机。他们中,不少有贷款买车的情况,大规模停运、长时间歇业,会降低他们的收入,增加负债率和贷款违约率。</span></p><p><b>在线教育业:</b><span>少儿的在线教育规模会持续扩大,如学而思的教学课程培训、VIPKID的外教培训、恺叔讲故事以及众多兴趣培训。但是,从长期来看,少儿的培训,尤其是辅导培训、兴趣培训,也不会因线上教育受到冲击。更可能是,线上和线下会有更好的结合。成人在线培训这块,主要指知识付费,会有一些专业人士,如大学教授加入。注意知识付费不等于信息付费,信息在网络时代是免费的,采用广告模式。人们只会给专业的、系统的知识付费。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010409229\" target=\"_blank\">疫情后的各行各业,都会变成什么样?</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1181745557\" target=\"_blank\">疫情之后,好公司的新时代</a></p><p>三,<b>总结</b></p><p><span>相信经过这次疫情,每个人都会更重视健康,更敬畏生命;更珍视家庭的温暖,更珍惜自己的工作;也更理解困难以及正在经历困难的其他人。</span></p><p><span>也相信经过这次疫情,会有越来越多的产业与企业会加速并深化数字化进程,这将带来极大的效率提升,也将在疫情复苏后给各行业在全世界范围内带来更多的竞争机会。</span></p><p><span>此刻,拐点仍未到来,全国上下仍在全力以赴,让我们一起,勇敢面对!</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>疫情对经济影响概述:迎接不平静但充满希望的新时代</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n疫情对经济影响概述:迎接不平静但充满希望的新时代\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-02-10 21:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>2020年伊始,一场突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情又把我们拉回到曾经的“非典”时期,但今天,中国经济与资本市场的发展阶段、体量、结构已完全不同,市场的参与者也已经是全新的一代人。所以,纵然故事情节似曾相识,结局与影响,却注定不同。</span></p><p><span>回顾2003,“非典”疫情对市场形成短期冲击,二季度社会消费品零售增速呈“V型”走势,股市中商业贸易板块跌幅居前。但疫情平息后消费迅速反弹并在 2004 年创下了新高。今天,新冠肺炎疫情对经济的负面影响肯定要大于非典,一季度经济增速可能因此下降2个点以上。</span> 用<span>任泽平团队的研究数据来看:仅春节七天,电影票房损失70亿,餐饮零售损失5000亿,旅游市场损失5000亿,这三个行业的直接经济损失就超过一万亿,占到了2019年第一季度GDP的4.6%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b9575db1d21983f329066b354e6dd2d\" /></p><p><span>有人说,“非典”疫情催生了后来的互联网电商巨头淘宝和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>;还有人说,“非典”疫情吹响了互联网社会化大普及的总攻集结号……危机危机,危与机永远是相伴而生的。灾难不必歌颂,恐慌与痛苦也无需掩饰,但我们相信,春天绝对不会缺席。因此,提前看清疫情对经济的影响,把握即将到来的“报复性”反弹,就是投资者目前最需要做的工作。</span></p><p>一,<b>股市方面</b></p><p><span>春节前后,新冠肺炎疫情的爆发打断了A股持续上攻的趋势,疫情后的股市将会如何发展?我们认为,因为疫情本身注定是阶段性的,因此它带来的冲击,无论大小,都应该是阶段性的、一次性的,不会改变中国经济长期向好的基本面,其负面影响会随着病毒的消退而很快逆转。从历史经验来看,非典时期股票市场的调整仅持续了八个交易日,这个从二月初市场的表现已经得到验证。</span></p><p><b>底部已现,重点配置复苏主线</b></p><p><span>预计本轮疫情拐点后,前期涨幅较高的行业中,纯事件驱动或避险类板块迎来补跌,但蕴含中期商业逻辑的板块即使阶段性回吐部分涨幅,在产业逻辑支撑下仍具备重新向上动力。此外,疫情前表现较为强势,受疫情影响较小、产业逻辑依然稳固的板块也将逐步回归。</span></p><p><span>A股在经历大跌之后的赔率已较为吸引,冲击底部已现。若复工后疫情拐点改善进一步清晰,A股行业轮动将沿受疫情影响由小到大的顺序向中期主线回归。当前涨幅较高的受益板块中,纯事件驱动类强势股补跌,具有中期产业逻辑的板块即便面临一定调整也仍具备重新上行动力,而事件影响有限、中期产业逻辑稳固的板块亦将逐步回归。配置把握两条主线:</span></p><p><span>(1)短期事件受益、中期逻辑支撑;</span></p><p><span>(2)事件影响有限,中期向上逻辑稳固。</span> <b><span>建议配置:互联网医疗、游戏、新能源车、消费电子。</span></b></p><p>【详细了解】</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010229771\" target=\"_blank\">面对疫情冲击,市场受到的影响会有多大?</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1181487505\" target=\"_blank\">2020年2月策略月报:疫情过后的几大投资方向</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1166471274\" target=\"_blank\">若疫情迎来拐点,配置什么?</a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/097c9eb39c9e382c813f1c868a260204\" /></p><p>二,<b>行业经济方面</b></p><p>1 楼市能抄底吗?</p><p>十七年前的“非典”<span>,让2003年北京4月和5月的商品房预售平均减少了3296套,降幅高达36%。同样也让全国楼市的开发速度和销售量都出现了大幅度的降低。但疫情结束后的8月31日,《国务院关于促进房地产市场持续健康发展的通知》出台,让非典的影响彻底消失,也让中国楼市驶入了一个新的快车道,开启了十几年的长期上涨。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cc5d886444e0b88638e370928f7b069\" /></p><p>但是今天的情况显然不同,<span>高层大概率不会采取突然大幅放水的措施,而是会多频次、小步快跑地进行降息降准,输血经济,维稳楼市。不要以为开发商会断臂求生,更大的可能是短暂优惠力度火力全开之后,开发商就会顺着刺激政策的利好,再现价涨行情。二手房也会随之夯实底部,价量齐起。想薅羊毛,一定要抓住极短的窗口期,该买大胆买。一旦他们活过来,价格上调,就啥也没有了。疫情过后1-2个月是最好的买入时机。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010770229\" target=\"_blank\">疫情之下,对于2020年楼市的5个关键判断</a></p><p>2 生鲜电商的大机会来了?</p><p><span>“你抢着菜了吗?”已经成为新冠肺炎疫情下,除“你抢着口罩了吗?”外另一句流行的打招呼方式。而居家隔离、不敢出门的人们纷纷涌向了买菜App,生鲜电商“压力山大”,货物短缺、人员匮乏、运力不足、系统崩溃等等问题随之而来。这种火热的状况,对于在2019年“九死一生”的生鲜电商来说,是一次机会吗?</span></p><p>本次<span>肺炎疫情对生鲜电商来说确实是机遇:一方面是培养用户的消费习惯;另一方面,在过去,供应链是制约生鲜电商最大因素,这次疫情是考验和做强供应链的机会,有利于吸引资本进入。但同时,如果能力不足,则有可能在此期间被逐渐淘汰。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010243226\" target=\"_blank\">三问疫情下的"抢菜大战":要持续多久?是多大机会?</a></p><p>3 互联网行业迎来又一春?《王者荣耀》的爆发未必是好事</p><p>前面提到,有观点认为当年的“非典”疫情成就了淘宝、京东等互联网电商,但在今天,<span>互联网与传统经济的结合已经非常非常深了,所以在传统经济受到打击以后,互联网受到的传导性是非常明显的,再也无法像17年前一样,坐收增长的红利。例如中小企业死掉没有人去百度做广告,小微企业餐馆死掉,没有去美团做推广,一些供应链电商背后的厂商破产,就没有人去提供<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、聚划算的货源。</span></p><p><span>有人说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>王者荣耀一天20亿的收入,对腾讯来讲赚得很开心。但事实上这反映了危机:大家都闲下来,闲到一个游戏可以一天赚20亿。中国这样一个已经增速放缓的经济体,出现大家都闲下来的情况,并不是什么好事。</span></p><p>从机会角度看,<span>谁能从本次疫情中找到最大的新需求增量,谁的未来就最光明。现在,我们对疫情的了解、围堵、跟踪、分析,基本上都有ai+big data+cloud的影子,这是对产业互联网能够提升政府治理能力、企业竞争能力最好的宣传,如果产业互联网可以持续发挥比较重要的作用的话,可能给中国整个toB/G端的互联网发展,带来真正的起飞的机会。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1164564036\" target=\"_blank\">疫情下的互联网行业投资指南</a></p><p>4 各行各业</p><p><span>正常情况下,经济遭遇疫情、股灾等冲击,市场的自愈能力会促进经济复苏。如非典过后,经济强劲复苏,很快烫平了波动。又比如,春节七天,旅游市场损失5000亿,主要是需求被强行抑制。疫情之后,旅游需求增加,市场逐渐复苏,财富损失会得到弥补。</span></p><p><span>但是,有些损失是难以弥补、无法挽回的,比如因为疫情,冬季和春节的服装存货积压,田地里的蔬果腐烂。又比如,生命的消失,企业的消失,工人下岗,经济循环断裂。</span></p><p><span>每个行业的抗风险能力不同,每个行业、每个企业的负债率、现金流状况不同,每个企业所处的产业位置,所遭遇疫情的打击程度也不同,因而有必要区分对待。这次疫情跟非典类似,对产业的影响,存在一个规律路径:</span><span><b>冲击波从下游逐渐向中上游传递。</b></span><span>首当其冲的是第三产业,尤其是零售及服务业。电影、餐饮、旅游文娱、服装零售、交通运输、教育培训、金融服务、制造业,它们的命运会各有不同。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1516bdf731ae0a8b5239ee2a9741b49\" /></p><p><b>电影业:</b><span>正常情况下,影视公司、经纪人公司以及电影工作者能够承担几个月甚至半年的空档,但是问题在于,中国电影本在寒冬期。去年下半年,电影拍摄、投资、产能都拦腰斩半,资本纷纷逃离,部分电影工作者失业、转业。如今疫情来袭,可谓雪上加霜。疫情过后影视会复苏,但我认为电影产业依然萧条。</span></p><p><b>餐饮业:</b><span>疫情过后,餐饮业会有什么改变?首先,不会有大改变,餐饮是刚需,需求稳定,而且饮食习惯很难改变。其次,酒店类餐厅恢复速度更慢,快餐类更快。这次疫情,多数传染案例来自聚集、聚餐。这给中国人喜欢的聚餐共食习惯以警醒,段时间内聚餐会减少。最后,人们会更注重餐饮卫生,培养分餐习惯,网上订餐、生鲜外卖有机会。</span></p><p><b>旅游业:</b><span>疫情后,景区尤其是大型观光景区的经济恢复会比较慢。大型景区,人流密集,短期内游客会选择回避,同时大型景区依赖黄金周。相反,短程自驾游、家庭游以及体验性旅游会成为趋势。</span></p><p><b>交通运输业:</b><span>最需要关注的群体是大规模的运输个体户,如出租车司机、网约车司机、大货车司机。他们中,不少有贷款买车的情况,大规模停运、长时间歇业,会降低他们的收入,增加负债率和贷款违约率。</span></p><p><b>在线教育业:</b><span>少儿的在线教育规模会持续扩大,如学而思的教学课程培训、VIPKID的外教培训、恺叔讲故事以及众多兴趣培训。但是,从长期来看,少儿的培训,尤其是辅导培训、兴趣培训,也不会因线上教育受到冲击。更可能是,线上和线下会有更好的结合。成人在线培训这块,主要指知识付费,会有一些专业人士,如大学教授加入。注意知识付费不等于信息付费,信息在网络时代是免费的,采用广告模式。人们只会给专业的、系统的知识付费。</span></p><p><span>【详细了解】</span></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2010409229\" target=\"_blank\">疫情后的各行各业,都会变成什么样?</a></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1181745557\" target=\"_blank\">疫情之后,好公司的新时代</a></p><p>三,<b>总结</b></p><p><span>相信经过这次疫情,每个人都会更重视健康,更敬畏生命;更珍视家庭的温暖,更珍惜自己的工作;也更理解困难以及正在经历困难的其他人。</span></p><p><span>也相信经过这次疫情,会有越来越多的产业与企业会加速并深化数字化进程,这将带来极大的效率提升,也将在疫情复苏后给各行业在全世界范围内带来更多的竞争机会。</span></p><p><span>此刻,拐点仍未到来,全国上下仍在全力以赴,让我们一起,勇敢面对!</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06cad28c21b49733c43eb45ed4e28c0","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178014820","content_text":"2020年伊始,一场突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情又把我们拉回到曾经的“非典”时期,但今天,中国经济与资本市场的发展阶段、体量、结构已完全不同,市场的参与者也已经是全新的一代人。所以,纵然故事情节似曾相识,结局与影响,却注定不同。回顾2003,“非典”疫情对市场形成短期冲击,二季度社会消费品零售增速呈“V型”走势,股市中商业贸易板块跌幅居前。但疫情平息后消费迅速反弹并在 2004 年创下了新高。今天,新冠肺炎疫情对经济的负面影响肯定要大于非典,一季度经济增速可能因此下降2个点以上。 用任泽平团队的研究数据来看:仅春节七天,电影票房损失70亿,餐饮零售损失5000亿,旅游市场损失5000亿,这三个行业的直接经济损失就超过一万亿,占到了2019年第一季度GDP的4.6%。有人说,“非典”疫情催生了后来的互联网电商巨头淘宝和京东;还有人说,“非典”疫情吹响了互联网社会化大普及的总攻集结号……危机危机,危与机永远是相伴而生的。灾难不必歌颂,恐慌与痛苦也无需掩饰,但我们相信,春天绝对不会缺席。因此,提前看清疫情对经济的影响,把握即将到来的“报复性”反弹,就是投资者目前最需要做的工作。一,股市方面春节前后,新冠肺炎疫情的爆发打断了A股持续上攻的趋势,疫情后的股市将会如何发展?我们认为,因为疫情本身注定是阶段性的,因此它带来的冲击,无论大小,都应该是阶段性的、一次性的,不会改变中国经济长期向好的基本面,其负面影响会随着病毒的消退而很快逆转。从历史经验来看,非典时期股票市场的调整仅持续了八个交易日,这个从二月初市场的表现已经得到验证。底部已现,重点配置复苏主线预计本轮疫情拐点后,前期涨幅较高的行业中,纯事件驱动或避险类板块迎来补跌,但蕴含中期商业逻辑的板块即使阶段性回吐部分涨幅,在产业逻辑支撑下仍具备重新向上动力。此外,疫情前表现较为强势,受疫情影响较小、产业逻辑依然稳固的板块也将逐步回归。A股在经历大跌之后的赔率已较为吸引,冲击底部已现。若复工后疫情拐点改善进一步清晰,A股行业轮动将沿受疫情影响由小到大的顺序向中期主线回归。当前涨幅较高的受益板块中,纯事件驱动类强势股补跌,具有中期产业逻辑的板块即便面临一定调整也仍具备重新上行动力,而事件影响有限、中期产业逻辑稳固的板块亦将逐步回归。配置把握两条主线:(1)短期事件受益、中期逻辑支撑;(2)事件影响有限,中期向上逻辑稳固。 建议配置:互联网医疗、游戏、新能源车、消费电子。【详细了解】面对疫情冲击,市场受到的影响会有多大?2020年2月策略月报:疫情过后的几大投资方向若疫情迎来拐点,配置什么?二,行业经济方面1 楼市能抄底吗?十七年前的“非典”,让2003年北京4月和5月的商品房预售平均减少了3296套,降幅高达36%。同样也让全国楼市的开发速度和销售量都出现了大幅度的降低。但疫情结束后的8月31日,《国务院关于促进房地产市场持续健康发展的通知》出台,让非典的影响彻底消失,也让中国楼市驶入了一个新的快车道,开启了十几年的长期上涨。但是今天的情况显然不同,高层大概率不会采取突然大幅放水的措施,而是会多频次、小步快跑地进行降息降准,输血经济,维稳楼市。不要以为开发商会断臂求生,更大的可能是短暂优惠力度火力全开之后,开发商就会顺着刺激政策的利好,再现价涨行情。二手房也会随之夯实底部,价量齐起。想薅羊毛,一定要抓住极短的窗口期,该买大胆买。一旦他们活过来,价格上调,就啥也没有了。疫情过后1-2个月是最好的买入时机。【详细了解】疫情之下,对于2020年楼市的5个关键判断2 生鲜电商的大机会来了?“你抢着菜了吗?”已经成为新冠肺炎疫情下,除“你抢着口罩了吗?”外另一句流行的打招呼方式。而居家隔离、不敢出门的人们纷纷涌向了买菜App,生鲜电商“压力山大”,货物短缺、人员匮乏、运力不足、系统崩溃等等问题随之而来。这种火热的状况,对于在2019年“九死一生”的生鲜电商来说,是一次机会吗?本次肺炎疫情对生鲜电商来说确实是机遇:一方面是培养用户的消费习惯;另一方面,在过去,供应链是制约生鲜电商最大因素,这次疫情是考验和做强供应链的机会,有利于吸引资本进入。但同时,如果能力不足,则有可能在此期间被逐渐淘汰。【详细了解】三问疫情下的\"抢菜大战\":要持续多久?是多大机会?3 互联网行业迎来又一春?《王者荣耀》的爆发未必是好事前面提到,有观点认为当年的“非典”疫情成就了淘宝、京东等互联网电商,但在今天,互联网与传统经济的结合已经非常非常深了,所以在传统经济受到打击以后,互联网受到的传导性是非常明显的,再也无法像17年前一样,坐收增长的红利。例如中小企业死掉没有人去百度做广告,小微企业餐馆死掉,没有去美团做推广,一些供应链电商背后的厂商破产,就没有人去提供拼多多、聚划算的货源。有人说腾讯王者荣耀一天20亿的收入,对腾讯来讲赚得很开心。但事实上这反映了危机:大家都闲下来,闲到一个游戏可以一天赚20亿。中国这样一个已经增速放缓的经济体,出现大家都闲下来的情况,并不是什么好事。从机会角度看,谁能从本次疫情中找到最大的新需求增量,谁的未来就最光明。现在,我们对疫情的了解、围堵、跟踪、分析,基本上都有ai+big data+cloud的影子,这是对产业互联网能够提升政府治理能力、企业竞争能力最好的宣传,如果产业互联网可以持续发挥比较重要的作用的话,可能给中国整个toB/G端的互联网发展,带来真正的起飞的机会。【详细了解】疫情下的互联网行业投资指南4 各行各业正常情况下,经济遭遇疫情、股灾等冲击,市场的自愈能力会促进经济复苏。如非典过后,经济强劲复苏,很快烫平了波动。又比如,春节七天,旅游市场损失5000亿,主要是需求被强行抑制。疫情之后,旅游需求增加,市场逐渐复苏,财富损失会得到弥补。但是,有些损失是难以弥补、无法挽回的,比如因为疫情,冬季和春节的服装存货积压,田地里的蔬果腐烂。又比如,生命的消失,企业的消失,工人下岗,经济循环断裂。每个行业的抗风险能力不同,每个行业、每个企业的负债率、现金流状况不同,每个企业所处的产业位置,所遭遇疫情的打击程度也不同,因而有必要区分对待。这次疫情跟非典类似,对产业的影响,存在一个规律路径:冲击波从下游逐渐向中上游传递。首当其冲的是第三产业,尤其是零售及服务业。电影、餐饮、旅游文娱、服装零售、交通运输、教育培训、金融服务、制造业,它们的命运会各有不同。电影业:正常情况下,影视公司、经纪人公司以及电影工作者能够承担几个月甚至半年的空档,但是问题在于,中国电影本在寒冬期。去年下半年,电影拍摄、投资、产能都拦腰斩半,资本纷纷逃离,部分电影工作者失业、转业。如今疫情来袭,可谓雪上加霜。疫情过后影视会复苏,但我认为电影产业依然萧条。餐饮业:疫情过后,餐饮业会有什么改变?首先,不会有大改变,餐饮是刚需,需求稳定,而且饮食习惯很难改变。其次,酒店类餐厅恢复速度更慢,快餐类更快。这次疫情,多数传染案例来自聚集、聚餐。这给中国人喜欢的聚餐共食习惯以警醒,段时间内聚餐会减少。最后,人们会更注重餐饮卫生,培养分餐习惯,网上订餐、生鲜外卖有机会。旅游业:疫情后,景区尤其是大型观光景区的经济恢复会比较慢。大型景区,人流密集,短期内游客会选择回避,同时大型景区依赖黄金周。相反,短程自驾游、家庭游以及体验性旅游会成为趋势。交通运输业:最需要关注的群体是大规模的运输个体户,如出租车司机、网约车司机、大货车司机。他们中,不少有贷款买车的情况,大规模停运、长时间歇业,会降低他们的收入,增加负债率和贷款违约率。在线教育业:少儿的在线教育规模会持续扩大,如学而思的教学课程培训、VIPKID的外教培训、恺叔讲故事以及众多兴趣培训。但是,从长期来看,少儿的培训,尤其是辅导培训、兴趣培训,也不会因线上教育受到冲击。更可能是,线上和线下会有更好的结合。成人在线培训这块,主要指知识付费,会有一些专业人士,如大学教授加入。注意知识付费不等于信息付费,信息在网络时代是免费的,采用广告模式。人们只会给专业的、系统的知识付费。【详细了解】疫情后的各行各业,都会变成什么样?疫情之后,好公司的新时代三,总结相信经过这次疫情,每个人都会更重视健康,更敬畏生命;更珍视家庭的温暖,更珍惜自己的工作;也更理解困难以及正在经历困难的其他人。也相信经过这次疫情,会有越来越多的产业与企业会加速并深化数字化进程,这将带来极大的效率提升,也将在疫情复苏后给各行业在全世界范围内带来更多的竞争机会。此刻,拐点仍未到来,全国上下仍在全力以赴,让我们一起,勇敢面对!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}