bestww的个人主页 - 老虎社区

bestww

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：海外

45关注

38粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2024-03-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 继续等100

2021-01-31

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$谁有这票做空比例啊？做空少的话，不容易涨啊。

2020-06-12

$波音(BA)$刚才发生什么了，断崖式下跌

2020-06-08

$劳斯莱斯(RR..UK)$这么好的票没人理[笑哭]

2021-02-15

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$欧盘今天显示33快多了

2020-05-03

$蔚来(NIO)$大家闲着没事的扯一扯四月蔚来销量多少啊

2020-04-29

$蔚来(NIO)$德国现在还是3.4多点，还没起飞。

2021-11-22

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$今天过200了

2020-12-11

$阿斯顿马丁(AML.UK)$我已清仓，感觉良好[得意]

2021-01-04

$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$真惨烈

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3541959113846363","uuid":"3541959113846363","gmtCreate":1578865098775,"gmtModify":1578865098775,"name":"bestww","pinyin":"bestww","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":38,"headSize":45,"tweetSize":766,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.07.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.11","exceedPercentage":"80.13%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.01.11","exceedPercentage":"93.35%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"海外","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":296947770130672,"gmtCreate":1713525749573,"gmtModify":1713525750723,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 100马上到","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 100马上到","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 100马上到","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296947770130672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296015706419216,"gmtCreate":1713299438511,"gmtModify":1713299439570,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 等100接","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 等100接","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 等100接","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296015706419216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":292023612055600,"gmtCreate":1712320763635,"gmtModify":1712320765492,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 等100","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 等100","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 等100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/292023612055600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291051209331008,"gmtCreate":1712083316951,"gmtModify":1712110243628,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 100接","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 100接","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 100接","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/291051209331008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":287052153352480,"gmtCreate":1711110116783,"gmtModify":1711110117977,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 等100接","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 等100接","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 等100接","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/287052153352480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283491233485064,"gmtCreate":1710250670713,"gmtModify":1710250671989,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 100接","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 100接","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 100接","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283491233485064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":281404896444536,"gmtCreate":1709730812497,"gmtModify":1709730813650,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 继续等100","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 继续等100","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 继续等100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281404896444536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de4bb6ae7ead34f761208585a438824","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4093596070918460","idStr":"4093596070918460"},"content":"等到哪一年是个问题","text":"等到哪一年是个问题","html":"等到哪一年是个问题"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":281051925143568,"gmtCreate":1709646708433,"gmtModify":1709646709840,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 100接货","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 100接货","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 100接货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281051925143568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3563357612600728","idStr":"3563357612600728"},"content":"15的时候你为什么没接货？非要等到100才接？","text":"15的时候你为什么没接货？非要等到100才接？","html":"15的时候你为什么没接货？非要等到100才接？"},{"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"畜牧教主马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3560418186602071","idStr":"3560418186602071"},"content":"别理他们，高估的时候干嘛要接盘等着被套吗","text":"别理他们，高估的时候干嘛要接盘等着被套吗","html":"别理他们，高估的时候干嘛要接盘等着被套吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":651864662,"gmtCreate":1681764572457,"gmtModify":1681764573905,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651864662","repostId":"1176434265","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176434265","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1681739466,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176434265?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-17 21:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"商业地产是倒逼美联储重启QE的“最后一根稻草”吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176434265","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"假如商业地产泡沫再次破裂，距离美联储转向宽松或许也不远了。越来越多的华尔街分析师们开始提出，商业地产将成为美国经济的“定时炸弹”，这关系到的不仅是大小银行，还有广泛的美国经济，而一旦商业地产“暴雷”，","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>假如商业地产泡沫再次破裂，距离美联储转向宽松或许也不远了。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">越来越多的华尔街分析师们开始提出，商业地产将成为美国经济的“定时炸弹”，这关系到的不仅是大小银行，还有广泛的美国经济，而一旦商业地产“暴雷”，紧随其后的很可能是美联储的再次QE（量化宽松）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周，摩根士丹利和美国银行不约而同在报告中警告商业地产的风险，前者指出美国写字楼和零售商业地产可能将出现30-40%的回撤，而后者的策略师——被称为华尔街“最准分析师”的Michael Hartnett——写道：</p><blockquote>你知道什么是商业房地产，它是一条紧紧缠绕在经济周围的蛇，会抑制未来2年的增长。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿波罗首席经济学家Torsten Slok则更为直白，他类比了2008年的金融危机，提到美联储可能“陷入恐慌”，然后重新开始量化宽松：</p><blockquote>2008年房地产泡沫破灭后，新房建设下降超过50%，住宅投资拉动GDP增速连续三年下降1%。由于商业地产建设约占住宅投资规模的75%，而且在建的摩天大楼和购物中心较少，破裂的商业地产泡沫可能会拖累未来三年约0.75%的GDP增长。随着商业房地产泡沫破灭，我们很可能进入低增长的三年，类似于我们在2008年房地产泡沫破灭后看到的情况。<strong>也就是说，一旦美联储在今年晚些时候开始降息，利率利率可能会在几年内保持低位，量化宽松政策可能会在2024年回归。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在三月的银行危机中，美联储的确已经展现出了这样的倾向——随着银行业危机发酵，美联储重新大幅投入4000亿美元流动性，美国大小银行准备金水平陡然提高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8153a41311248287a09bc1699c3eabbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也反映在美联储的资产负债表——<strong>去年一直在收缩的资产负债表，今年三月再次扩大。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c5ea3fbb85ea16145d2b37495f333c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"/></p><h2>地产倒塌，拖垮银行</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管今年的商业地产与2008年有着诸多不同之处，但随着区域性银行成为了2008年金融危机之后商业地产的主要参与者，这反而可能牵动另一场系统性风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通资产管理策略师Michael Cembalest在其报告中写道：</p><blockquote>乍一看，商业地产的过剩现象在这个周期看起来并不那么糟糕。 商业地产借贷占GDP的比例远远低于上世纪80年代和2000年的两个峰值，商业抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）市场的承销标准也比2008年之前的好……但是，CMBS在商业地产贷款中所占份额很小，尤其是与（主要是区域性）银行相比，后者在办公、零售、酒店和工业贷款方面的风险敞口更大。<strong>自2015年以来，区域性银行占银行商业地产贷款增量的 90%。</strong></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a20c0dda6825fcdb32d71e61464611\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"414\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，商业地产，尤其是写字楼的价值正在“一泻千里”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正如华尔街见闻稍早时候曾提及，曼哈顿写字楼空置率达到了历史最高的16%，旧金山的写字楼空置率则更是高达30%。一项来自斯坦福大学、芝加哥大学和墨西哥自治理工学院的研究显示，在新冠疫情之后，纽约正在经历因远程工作趋势而导致的人均年度支出最大减少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">地产信息商Green Street估计，<strong>去年写字楼的评估价值下降了25%，是所有房地产类型中的最大评估下降。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd949a0a123d1b07a4ccb0ad9ddf42bd\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"411\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自2020年以来，写字楼租金增长一直远低于其他房地产类型，甚至低于零售业；写字楼租赁活动已回落至疫情低点附近，销售额2022年以来下降了66％。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cembalest测算指出，<strong>如果贷款在当前环境下到期，即使对资本化率、贷款价值比（LTV）和净营业收入（NOI）假设进行轻微的改变，也可能迫使房地产所有者在当前环境下筹集大量昂贵的次级融资</strong>：</p><blockquote>7.5%的债务成本，40%的LTV和-1%的年化NOI下降，最终导致9.75%的资本利率和未来2-3年内写字楼价值比目前水平下降40%。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c265b3d6064f5b777b3a39c6df2e75\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利的研究指出，到2025年，约有价值1.35-1.46 万亿美元 (30-32%) 的商业地产债务到期，其中银行持有约42-56%的到期债务。银行既是资产的直接贷方，也是机构和非机构CMBS的购买者。银行持有每年到期债务的36-64%，占机构CMBS的近一半和非机构CMBS投资者的10-15%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，在面临股权价值全面损失的情况下，股权投资者一直在减少写字楼的敞口也就不足为奇。但不幸的是，对于商业地产贷款人，也就是那些拥有大量商业地产贷款的小银行来说，退出可能不是一件易事，<strong>尤其是占其商业地产贷款总额约20%的写字楼风险敞口。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94db6ae109a005612a1d9b3209080f9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"886\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，Cembalest还表示，根据摩根大通投资银行进行的一项银行压力测试，假设写字楼贷款拖欠率为21%，零售商业地产贷款拖欠率为15%，两者的回收率约为60%，损失发生在3-5年内（极为保守的假设）。结果是：</p><blockquote>一些较小的区域性银行的一级资本最多会减少30-40个基点。虽然这看起来不是很大，但这个分析假设2022年的拨备前收入水平将在3-5年的损失经历中持续存在。由于客户存款成本的提高和可能出现的经济衰退，许多银行的拨备前收入可能会下降。因此，估计对资本的打击可能要大得多。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>商业地产是倒逼美联储重启QE的“最后一根稻草”吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n商业地产是倒逼美联储重启QE的“最后一根稻草”吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-17 21:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686705><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>假如商业地产泡沫再次破裂，距离美联储转向宽松或许也不远了。越来越多的华尔街分析师们开始提出，商业地产将成为美国经济的“定时炸弹”，这关系到的不仅是大小银行，还有广泛的美国经济，而一旦商业地产“暴雷”，紧随其后的很可能是美联储的再次QE（量化宽松）。上周，摩根士丹利和美国银行不约而同在报告中警告商业地产的风险，前者指出美国写字楼和零售商业地产可能将出现30-40%的回撤，而后者的策略师——被称为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686705\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686705","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176434265","content_text":"假如商业地产泡沫再次破裂，距离美联储转向宽松或许也不远了。越来越多的华尔街分析师们开始提出，商业地产将成为美国经济的“定时炸弹”，这关系到的不仅是大小银行，还有广泛的美国经济，而一旦商业地产“暴雷”，紧随其后的很可能是美联储的再次QE（量化宽松）。上周，摩根士丹利和美国银行不约而同在报告中警告商业地产的风险，前者指出美国写字楼和零售商业地产可能将出现30-40%的回撤，而后者的策略师——被称为华尔街“最准分析师”的Michael Hartnett——写道：你知道什么是商业房地产，它是一条紧紧缠绕在经济周围的蛇，会抑制未来2年的增长。阿波罗首席经济学家Torsten Slok则更为直白，他类比了2008年的金融危机，提到美联储可能“陷入恐慌”，然后重新开始量化宽松：2008年房地产泡沫破灭后，新房建设下降超过50%，住宅投资拉动GDP增速连续三年下降1%。由于商业地产建设约占住宅投资规模的75%，而且在建的摩天大楼和购物中心较少，破裂的商业地产泡沫可能会拖累未来三年约0.75%的GDP增长。随着商业房地产泡沫破灭，我们很可能进入低增长的三年，类似于我们在2008年房地产泡沫破灭后看到的情况。也就是说，一旦美联储在今年晚些时候开始降息，利率利率可能会在几年内保持低位，量化宽松政策可能会在2024年回归。在三月的银行危机中，美联储的确已经展现出了这样的倾向——随着银行业危机发酵，美联储重新大幅投入4000亿美元流动性，美国大小银行准备金水平陡然提高。这也反映在美联储的资产负债表——去年一直在收缩的资产负债表，今年三月再次扩大。地产倒塌，拖垮银行尽管今年的商业地产与2008年有着诸多不同之处，但随着区域性银行成为了2008年金融危机之后商业地产的主要参与者，这反而可能牵动另一场系统性风险。摩根大通资产管理策略师Michael Cembalest在其报告中写道：乍一看，商业地产的过剩现象在这个周期看起来并不那么糟糕。 商业地产借贷占GDP的比例远远低于上世纪80年代和2000年的两个峰值，商业抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）市场的承销标准也比2008年之前的好……但是，CMBS在商业地产贷款中所占份额很小，尤其是与（主要是区域性）银行相比，后者在办公、零售、酒店和工业贷款方面的风险敞口更大。自2015年以来，区域性银行占银行商业地产贷款增量的 90%。与此同时，商业地产，尤其是写字楼的价值正在“一泻千里”。正如华尔街见闻稍早时候曾提及，曼哈顿写字楼空置率达到了历史最高的16%，旧金山的写字楼空置率则更是高达30%。一项来自斯坦福大学、芝加哥大学和墨西哥自治理工学院的研究显示，在新冠疫情之后，纽约正在经历因远程工作趋势而导致的人均年度支出最大减少。地产信息商Green Street估计，去年写字楼的评估价值下降了25%，是所有房地产类型中的最大评估下降。自2020年以来，写字楼租金增长一直远低于其他房地产类型，甚至低于零售业；写字楼租赁活动已回落至疫情低点附近，销售额2022年以来下降了66％。Cembalest测算指出，如果贷款在当前环境下到期，即使对资本化率、贷款价值比（LTV）和净营业收入（NOI）假设进行轻微的改变，也可能迫使房地产所有者在当前环境下筹集大量昂贵的次级融资：7.5%的债务成本，40%的LTV和-1%的年化NOI下降，最终导致9.75%的资本利率和未来2-3年内写字楼价值比目前水平下降40%。摩根士丹利的研究指出，到2025年，约有价值1.35-1.46 万亿美元 (30-32%) 的商业地产债务到期，其中银行持有约42-56%的到期债务。银行既是资产的直接贷方，也是机构和非机构CMBS的购买者。银行持有每年到期债务的36-64%，占机构CMBS的近一半和非机构CMBS投资者的10-15%。因此，在面临股权价值全面损失的情况下，股权投资者一直在减少写字楼的敞口也就不足为奇。但不幸的是，对于商业地产贷款人，也就是那些拥有大量商业地产贷款的小银行来说，退出可能不是一件易事，尤其是占其商业地产贷款总额约20%的写字楼风险敞口。最后，Cembalest还表示，根据摩根大通投资银行进行的一项银行压力测试，假设写字楼贷款拖欠率为21%，零售商业地产贷款拖欠率为15%，两者的回收率约为60%，损失发生在3-5年内（极为保守的假设）。结果是：一些较小的区域性银行的一级资本最多会减少30-40个基点。虽然这看起来不是很大，但这个分析假设2022年的拨备前收入水平将在3-5年的损失经历中持续存在。由于客户存款成本的提高和可能出现的经济衰退，许多银行的拨备前收入可能会下降。因此，估计对资本的打击可能要大得多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659763288,"gmtCreate":1680251549444,"gmtModify":1680251550507,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a>空头压不住了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a>空头压不住了","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 空头压不住了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659763288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628814225,"gmtCreate":1673012382167,"gmtModify":1673012383059,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>再加把劲","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>再加把劲","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 再加把劲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628814225","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628807446,"gmtCreate":1672998509185,"gmtModify":1672998511621,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今天见证历史了？","listText":"今天见证历史了？","text":"今天见证历史了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628807446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628105916,"gmtCreate":1672930902035,"gmtModify":1672931495601,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$&nbsp;</a>牛逼，疯了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$&nbsp;</a>牛逼，疯了","text":"$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 牛逼，疯了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628105916","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628101995,"gmtCreate":1672929432418,"gmtModify":1672929433470,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>今天击穿100","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>今天击穿100","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今天击穿100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628101995","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628085564,"gmtCreate":1672757579358,"gmtModify":1672757580807,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>感觉到五六十比较靠谱","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>感觉到五六十比较靠谱","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 感觉到五六十比较靠谱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628085564","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664818846,"gmtCreate":1667917690685,"gmtModify":1667917691612,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>要拉爆空头？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>要拉爆空头？","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$要拉爆空头？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664818846","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557713332357915","authorId":"3557713332357915","name":"刘被占用","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3557713332357915","idStr":"3557713332357915"},"content":"听说过拉高出货吗","text":"听说过拉高出货吗","html":"听说过拉高出货吗"},{"author":{"id":"3516529671626530","authorId":"3516529671626530","name":"太阳他爹","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3516529671626530","idStr":"3516529671626530"},"content":"比我还快。竟然没坚持1分钟😊","text":"比我还快。竟然没坚持1分钟😊","html":"比我还快。竟然没坚持1分钟😊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668536270,"gmtCreate":1664911513290,"gmtModify":1664911516045,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>低点已经过了，大家赶紧入吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>低点已经过了，大家赶紧入吧","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$低点已经过了，大家赶紧入吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668536270","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3483511970889942","authorId":"3483511970889942","name":"FF何时退市","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1900616ce5ce80dfaaa3903f03e52304","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3483511970889942","idStr":"3483511970889942"},"content":"你买了吗 [惊讶] [惊讶] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜]","text":"你买了吗 [惊讶] [惊讶] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜]","html":"你买了吗 [惊讶] [惊讶] [吃瓜] [吃瓜] [吃瓜]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":661974094,"gmtCreate":1663675045018,"gmtModify":1663675046305,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>100以下买入","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>100以下买入","text":"$百度(BIDU)$100以下买入","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661974094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663345983,"gmtCreate":1662989927142,"gmtModify":1662989929711,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>要埋人","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>要埋人","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$要埋人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663345983","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669092997,"gmtCreate":1661957484423,"gmtModify":1661957484423,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>别急，肯定破1，顶不住的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>别急，肯定破1，顶不住的","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$别急，肯定破1，顶不住的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669092997","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":281404896444536,"gmtCreate":1709730812497,"gmtModify":1709730813650,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 继续等100","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 继续等100","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 继续等100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281404896444536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de4bb6ae7ead34f761208585a438824","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4093596070918460","idStr":"4093596070918460"},"content":"等到哪一年是个问题","text":"等到哪一年是个问题","html":"等到哪一年是个问题"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":312811184,"gmtCreate":1612091928248,"gmtModify":1703757713901,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>谁有这票做空比例啊？做空少的话，不容易涨啊。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>谁有这票做空比例啊？做空少的话，不容易涨啊。","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$谁有这票做空比例啊？做空少的话，不容易涨啊。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312811184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559692458722896","authorId":"3559692458722896","name":"alfiewjwz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3559692458722896","idStr":"3559692458722896"},"content":"做空比例是在有一定涨幅之后才会起来的，所以开始的涨幅是为了空投来建仓，哪有一支股票在合理价格时有大量空仓的。","text":"做空比例是在有一定涨幅之后才会起来的，所以开始的涨幅是为了空投来建仓，哪有一支股票在合理价格时有大量空仓的。","html":"做空比例是在有一定涨幅之后才会起来的，所以开始的涨幅是为了空投来建仓，哪有一支股票在合理价格时有大量空仓的。"},{"author":{"id":"105847410068011","authorId":"105847410068011","name":"云海啊","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"105847410068011","idStr":"105847410068011"},"content":"关键这票看做空没用，增发太多，还有5亿美金将近10亿股票要出来","text":"关键这票看做空没用，增发太多，还有5亿美金将近10亿股票要出来","html":"关键这票看做空没用，增发太多，还有5亿美金将近10亿股票要出来"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952173702,"gmtCreate":1591902854406,"gmtModify":1704197565091,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>刚才发生什么了，断崖式下跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>刚才发生什么了，断崖式下跌","text":"$波音(BA)$刚才发生什么了，断崖式下跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952173702","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3450398809409245","authorId":"3450398809409245","name":"A胜天半子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7650a9e667bfb4b915410e236ed3b4d2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3450398809409245","idStr":"3450398809409245"},"content":"波音要求最大的供应商暂停737MAX部件","text":"波音要求最大的供应商暂停737MAX部件","html":"波音要求最大的供应商暂停737MAX部件"},{"author":{"id":"3499339289989403","authorId":"3499339289989403","name":"ZhangYing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b12c017b0f253e781db7d21533ee692","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3499339289989403","idStr":"3499339289989403"},"content":"怎么买put啊？","text":"怎么买put啊？","html":"怎么买put啊？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":956186973,"gmtCreate":1591616818392,"gmtModify":1704196121745,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RR..UK\">$劳斯莱斯(RR..UK)$</a>这么好的票没人理[笑哭]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RR..UK\">$劳斯莱斯(RR..UK)$</a>这么好的票没人理[笑哭]","text":"$劳斯莱斯(RR..UK)$这么好的票没人理[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/956186973","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3441652934740029","authorId":"3441652934740029","name":"火箭发射员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64da92076ca723b701d527e7b14f864c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3441652934740029","idStr":"3441652934740029"},"content":"英股你都是哪里找来的","text":"英股你都是哪里找来的","html":"英股你都是哪里找来的"},{"author":{"id":"3550442752865201","authorId":"3550442752865201","name":"yousayimcraz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73909e18f63e7dabb72e8c42e1ab8282","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3550442752865201","idStr":"3550442752865201"},"content":"暴跌了三天了 [微笑]","text":"暴跌了三天了 [微笑]","html":"暴跌了三天了 [微笑]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382110851,"gmtCreate":1613381622773,"gmtModify":1613409722204,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>欧盘今天显示33快多了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>欧盘今天显示33快多了","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$欧盘今天显示33快多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382110851","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3434046638438343","authorId":"3434046638438343","name":"柴总的美股投资日常","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/492d307138eed3b8e9e2f4f52fe12929","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3434046638438343","idStr":"3434046638438343"},"content":"就这...涨了跟没涨一样啊[无语]","text":"就这...涨了跟没涨一样啊[无语]","html":"就这...涨了跟没涨一样啊[无语]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924543252,"gmtCreate":1588509496476,"gmtModify":1704367709433,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>大家闲着没事的扯一扯四月蔚来销量多少啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>大家闲着没事的扯一扯四月蔚来销量多少啊","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$大家闲着没事的扯一扯四月蔚来销量多少啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924543252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3500033151003003","authorId":"3500033151003003","name":"brookie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3500033151003003","idStr":"3500033151003003"},"content":"3200交付数啊","text":"3200交付数啊","html":"3200交付数啊"},{"author":{"id":"3448169752172333","authorId":"3448169752172333","name":"戴德里克斯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b841b0842d88df868b7420d211d0ef41","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3448169752172333","idStr":"3448169752172333"},"content":"扯了也是割你","text":"扯了也是割你","html":"扯了也是割你"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925719572,"gmtCreate":1588142902496,"gmtModify":1704366551413,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>德国现在还是3.4多点，还没起飞。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>德国现在还是3.4多点，还没起飞。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$德国现在还是3.4多点，还没起飞。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925719572","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3501168482635867","authorId":"3501168482635867","name":"我好亏","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3501168482635867","idStr":"3501168482635867"},"content":"你们盘是24小时下单?一般盘前不是4点开始吗","text":"你们盘是24小时下单?一般盘前不是4点开始吗","html":"你们盘是24小时下单?一般盘前不是4点开始吗"},{"author":{"id":"3476304101497858","authorId":"3476304101497858","name":"T20211211471","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3476304101497858","idStr":"3476304101497858"},"content":"只是能下单而已吧 买不了 都是四点开始","text":"只是能下单而已吧 买不了 都是四点开始","html":"只是能下单而已吧 买不了 都是四点开始"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875012271,"gmtCreate":1637587411124,"gmtModify":1637587411124,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$</a>今天过200了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$</a>今天过200了","text":"$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$今天过200了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875012271","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395264876,"gmtCreate":1607676861695,"gmtModify":1703849429346,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AML.UK\">$阿斯顿马丁(AML.UK)$</a>我已清仓，感觉良好[得意]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AML.UK\">$阿斯顿马丁(AML.UK)$</a>我已清仓，感觉良好[得意]","text":"$阿斯顿马丁(AML.UK)$我已清仓，感觉良好[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395264876","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3441652934740029","authorId":"3441652934740029","name":"火箭发射员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64da92076ca723b701d527e7b14f864c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3441652934740029","idStr":"3441652934740029"},"content":"昨天走的啊","text":"昨天走的啊","html":"昨天走的啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331780620,"gmtCreate":1609766027160,"gmtModify":1703740319350,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3541959113846363","idStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>真惨烈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QS\">$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$</a>真惨烈","text":"$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$真惨烈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331780620","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3561177669869635","authorId":"3561177669869635","name":"howieyang123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35bedfe5f1c40f2d55c98a591ca2ec08","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3561177669869635","idStr":"3561177669869635"},"content":"怕是要跌到20多","text":"怕是要跌到20多","html":"怕是要跌到20多"},{"author":{"id":"3515556824600118","authorId":"3515556824600118","name":"高富瘦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c61175becc9d33f6ff56c94a54bef113","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3515556824600118","idStr":"3515556824600118"},"content":"咋回事跌这么多 [捂脸]","text":"咋回事跌这么多 [捂脸]","html":"咋回事跌这么多 [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}