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全球股票
2022-08-20
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
美股财报入门课:第1课:从美股开始学财报的三大好处
全球股票
2021-12-05
[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]
@胖虎福利:【抽iphone】顺丰同城上市,留言赢iPhone 13!
全球股票
2021-07-28
[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]
全球股票
2021-04-20
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
全球股票
2021-03-15
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
全球股票
2021-03-08
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
全球股票
2021-03-08
[开心] [开心] [财迷] [财迷]
全球股票
2021-02-22
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@小贝导演:【新手扫盲】再教教大家美股and港股打新
全球股票
2020-10-22
哈哈哈
@美股解毒师:蚂蚁金服4000亿美金的估值从何而来?
全球股票
2020-10-14
$正一科技(MOSY)$
哈哈哈
全球股票
2020-08-18
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
盘前:金牛王者归来!特斯拉势将站上1900美元关口
全球股票
2020-08-18
$瑞思学科英语(REDU)$
[财迷]
全球股票
2020-08-18
$福沃德工业(FORD)$
[开心]
全球股票
2020-08-18
$金罗斯黄金(KGC)$
哈喽
全球股票
2020-08-18
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
手握1万亿元现金,巴菲特想干什么?
全球股票
2020-07-23
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]
@晚点LatePost:阿里价值观简史
全球股票
2020-06-27
$MDC Partners Inc(MDCA)$
jl哈喽
全球股票
2020-06-05
$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$
哇塞
全球股票
2020-05-28
哇塞
@小纱布:
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$
玩了一年,🦐🐔🎱操作,[美金] 都亏完了,就剩这点了[暗中观察]
全球股票
2020-05-09
这个怎么开通?
@第一次玩而已:
$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$
中国银行账户直接消失,太可怕了,
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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[财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3690bc45b391c3313bf0b3fec7ed493","width":"1080","height":"2632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320410646","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320436580,"gmtCreate":1615166639540,"gmtModify":1703485075910,"author":{"id":"3538077915411971","authorId":"3538077915411971","name":"全球股票","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aebb3517f22967e4589d5affef6aba89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心] [开心] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[开心] [开心] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[开心] [开心] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3690bc45b391c3313bf0b3fec7ed493","width":"1080","height":"2632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320436580","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360782756,"gmtCreate":1613978974475,"gmtModify":1613978974475,"author":{"id":"3538077915411971","authorId":"3538077915411971","name":"全球股票","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aebb3517f22967e4589d5affef6aba89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360782756","repostId":"384103132","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":384103132,"gmtCreate":1613621204226,"gmtModify":1613628783039,"author":{"id":"3505175992816849","authorId":"3505175992816849","name":"小贝导演","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2d014b4fa5c9fc7eef14677fed5aca","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"【新手扫盲】再教教大家美股and港股打新","htmlText":"大家好,我是小贝导演,前一阵写了两篇文章,反响都还不错,教了下如何通过骚操作省钱,以及副业排雷,具体链接在这里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/386951701\" target=\"_blank\">【今天不聊股市,聊点骚操作】装修房子不花钱?买完新车就出租?</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/382325186\" target=\"_blank\">【副业投资哪家强?】揭幕那些看似网红店背后の秘密</a> 熟悉我的人都知道,我的仓位按照4321搭配,所以30%都给了各种毛票,潜伏股,以小亏博大赚,不了解我的可以点击这里~<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/312215904\" target=\"_blank\">毛票股6压6中,如何两周时间单车变汽车?</a> 好了,今天和大家说说打新的事~,我除了史玉柱的PLTK没给中签以外,其他都中了,今天就和大家聊聊打新的事~先来晒一下我自己打新记录 先讲一下美股的整体逻辑。 大家都知道,美国人的养老金包括总统的养老金,全都放在股市。 也正因为如此,美股美国股市很难跌下去,所以稳步上涨,一跌,养老金缩水,美国整个社会就乱套了。 哪怕这次疫情这么严重,美股多次熔断,从3万多点跌到2万多点的情况下,现在又涨回了3万多点。 所以美股相对很稳,大盘长期来讲是不断往上走的,很适合作为长期理财的持有。 如果没时间长期关注股市,就可以选择一些优质的公司的股票,比如亚马逊、苹果、特斯拉或者是纳斯达克的指数基金,长期持有,总体收益也相当不错。 除了长期持有,再来给大家介绍一些简单易操作的短线玩法,其中一个就是美股打新。 很多人可能听过港股打新,港股打新散户很难中,要么就现金一手,要么就进乙组,一般都是机构或者高端净值客户去打,所以就需要配资。 有很多券商平","listText":"大家好,我是小贝导演,前一阵写了两篇文章,反响都还不错,教了下如何通过骚操作省钱,以及副业排雷,具体链接在这里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/386951701\" target=\"_blank\">【今天不聊股市,聊点骚操作】装修房子不花钱?买完新车就出租?</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/382325186\" target=\"_blank\">【副业投资哪家强?】揭幕那些看似网红店背后の秘密</a> 熟悉我的人都知道,我的仓位按照4321搭配,所以30%都给了各种毛票,潜伏股,以小亏博大赚,不了解我的可以点击这里~<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/312215904\" target=\"_blank\">毛票股6压6中,如何两周时间单车变汽车?</a> 好了,今天和大家说说打新的事~,我除了史玉柱的PLTK没给中签以外,其他都中了,今天就和大家聊聊打新的事~先来晒一下我自己打新记录 先讲一下美股的整体逻辑。 大家都知道,美国人的养老金包括总统的养老金,全都放在股市。 也正因为如此,美股美国股市很难跌下去,所以稳步上涨,一跌,养老金缩水,美国整个社会就乱套了。 哪怕这次疫情这么严重,美股多次熔断,从3万多点跌到2万多点的情况下,现在又涨回了3万多点。 所以美股相对很稳,大盘长期来讲是不断往上走的,很适合作为长期理财的持有。 如果没时间长期关注股市,就可以选择一些优质的公司的股票,比如亚马逊、苹果、特斯拉或者是纳斯达克的指数基金,长期持有,总体收益也相当不错。 除了长期持有,再来给大家介绍一些简单易操作的短线玩法,其中一个就是美股打新。 很多人可能听过港股打新,港股打新散户很难中,要么就现金一手,要么就进乙组,一般都是机构或者高端净值客户去打,所以就需要配资。 有很多券商平","text":"大家好,我是小贝导演,前一阵写了两篇文章,反响都还不错,教了下如何通过骚操作省钱,以及副业排雷,具体链接在这里【今天不聊股市,聊点骚操作】装修房子不花钱?买完新车就出租?【副业投资哪家强?】揭幕那些看似网红店背后の秘密 熟悉我的人都知道,我的仓位按照4321搭配,所以30%都给了各种毛票,潜伏股,以小亏博大赚,不了解我的可以点击这里~毛票股6压6中,如何两周时间单车变汽车? 好了,今天和大家说说打新的事~,我除了史玉柱的PLTK没给中签以外,其他都中了,今天就和大家聊聊打新的事~先来晒一下我自己打新记录 先讲一下美股的整体逻辑。 大家都知道,美国人的养老金包括总统的养老金,全都放在股市。 也正因为如此,美股美国股市很难跌下去,所以稳步上涨,一跌,养老金缩水,美国整个社会就乱套了。 哪怕这次疫情这么严重,美股多次熔断,从3万多点跌到2万多点的情况下,现在又涨回了3万多点。 所以美股相对很稳,大盘长期来讲是不断往上走的,很适合作为长期理财的持有。 如果没时间长期关注股市,就可以选择一些优质的公司的股票,比如亚马逊、苹果、特斯拉或者是纳斯达克的指数基金,长期持有,总体收益也相当不错。 除了长期持有,再来给大家介绍一些简单易操作的短线玩法,其中一个就是美股打新。 很多人可能听过港股打新,港股打新散户很难中,要么就现金一手,要么就进乙组,一般都是机构或者高端净值客户去打,所以就需要配资。 有很多券商平","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c4c881bb80bd9866c10872b2a38b7c0","width":"688","height":"1489"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a98e6ca3c043554134ab562c6c9844de","width":"666","height":"285"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/964e4b2299917be8d1a42e09d8339e26","width":"688","height":"515"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384103132","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":20,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301376921,"gmtCreate":1603377359463,"gmtModify":1703829759120,"author":{"id":"3538077915411971","authorId":"3538077915411971","name":"全球股票","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aebb3517f22967e4589d5affef6aba89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈哈","listText":"哈哈哈","text":"哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301376921","repostId":"301386651","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":301386651,"gmtCreate":1603369167366,"gmtModify":1703829696528,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"蚂蚁金服4000亿美金的估值从何而来?","htmlText":"今天下午,路透的一条新闻让对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/90016\">$蚂蚁集团(临时)(90016)$</a> 翘首以待的投资者眉目一紧—— 瑞信最新的报告显示,阿里巴巴旗下蚂蚁集团的估值应提升至3800至4610亿美元,2020年全年净利预期将同比增长141%至433亿人民币。 怎么变化这么快呢?从之前的2500亿美元,到最近的2800亿美元(或2万亿RMB),都能明显看到“询价”的痕迹。但是3800亿-4600亿的估值,貌似步子也太大了一些? 瑞信是这么说的, 阿里、腾讯、京东、美团和拼多多这五家公司的平均PEG(市盈率相对盈利增长比率)为1.2x 全球互联网巨头亚马逊、谷歌和Facebook的平均PEG比率为1.6x 蚂蚁集团应该在1.2x-1.4x的PEG 如果2020-2022年收入的复合增长率为32%(言下之意利润和收入水平至少保持相同),那市盈率就将在38-45之间。 如果蚂蚁集团2020年全年净利润同比增长141%,达到433亿元,未来按照32%的增长,那么2021年为570亿元,2022年为750亿元。2022年按照45倍PE可以达到4600亿美元。 敢突然迈这么大步子,肯定不是空穴来风。 根据蚂蚁聆讯后的招股文件 前三季度的营业收入1181.91亿元,同比增长42.56%,毛利润695.49亿元,同比增长74.28%。按照年末达到1100亿毛利润的话,433亿的 净利润(IFRS)相当于是毛利率的39% 。 可是,2019年的净利润占毛利润比例是30%。 只能说,非要给这么高的目标,蚂蚁要垫垫脚尖的话,还尚且能够着。 PE等倍数估值法有一个比较大的问题是,最终估值对估值倍数的变化比较敏感。一个小的变动可能就引起大范围的调整,同时对不同目标时期点的估值,如果不说清楚的话,也会相差较大。 所以从2800亿-480","listText":"今天下午,路透的一条新闻让对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/90016\">$蚂蚁集团(临时)(90016)$</a> 翘首以待的投资者眉目一紧—— 瑞信最新的报告显示,阿里巴巴旗下蚂蚁集团的估值应提升至3800至4610亿美元,2020年全年净利预期将同比增长141%至433亿人民币。 怎么变化这么快呢?从之前的2500亿美元,到最近的2800亿美元(或2万亿RMB),都能明显看到“询价”的痕迹。但是3800亿-4600亿的估值,貌似步子也太大了一些? 瑞信是这么说的, 阿里、腾讯、京东、美团和拼多多这五家公司的平均PEG(市盈率相对盈利增长比率)为1.2x 全球互联网巨头亚马逊、谷歌和Facebook的平均PEG比率为1.6x 蚂蚁集团应该在1.2x-1.4x的PEG 如果2020-2022年收入的复合增长率为32%(言下之意利润和收入水平至少保持相同),那市盈率就将在38-45之间。 如果蚂蚁集团2020年全年净利润同比增长141%,达到433亿元,未来按照32%的增长,那么2021年为570亿元,2022年为750亿元。2022年按照45倍PE可以达到4600亿美元。 敢突然迈这么大步子,肯定不是空穴来风。 根据蚂蚁聆讯后的招股文件 前三季度的营业收入1181.91亿元,同比增长42.56%,毛利润695.49亿元,同比增长74.28%。按照年末达到1100亿毛利润的话,433亿的 净利润(IFRS)相当于是毛利率的39% 。 可是,2019年的净利润占毛利润比例是30%。 只能说,非要给这么高的目标,蚂蚁要垫垫脚尖的话,还尚且能够着。 PE等倍数估值法有一个比较大的问题是,最终估值对估值倍数的变化比较敏感。一个小的变动可能就引起大范围的调整,同时对不同目标时期点的估值,如果不说清楚的话,也会相差较大。 所以从2800亿-480","text":"今天下午,路透的一条新闻让对$蚂蚁集团(临时)(90016)$ 翘首以待的投资者眉目一紧—— 瑞信最新的报告显示,阿里巴巴旗下蚂蚁集团的估值应提升至3800至4610亿美元,2020年全年净利预期将同比增长141%至433亿人民币。 怎么变化这么快呢?从之前的2500亿美元,到最近的2800亿美元(或2万亿RMB),都能明显看到“询价”的痕迹。但是3800亿-4600亿的估值,貌似步子也太大了一些? 瑞信是这么说的, 阿里、腾讯、京东、美团和拼多多这五家公司的平均PEG(市盈率相对盈利增长比率)为1.2x 全球互联网巨头亚马逊、谷歌和Facebook的平均PEG比率为1.6x 蚂蚁集团应该在1.2x-1.4x的PEG 如果2020-2022年收入的复合增长率为32%(言下之意利润和收入水平至少保持相同),那市盈率就将在38-45之间。 如果蚂蚁集团2020年全年净利润同比增长141%,达到433亿元,未来按照32%的增长,那么2021年为570亿元,2022年为750亿元。2022年按照45倍PE可以达到4600亿美元。 敢突然迈这么大步子,肯定不是空穴来风。 根据蚂蚁聆讯后的招股文件 前三季度的营业收入1181.91亿元,同比增长42.56%,毛利润695.49亿元,同比增长74.28%。按照年末达到1100亿毛利润的话,433亿的 净利润(IFRS)相当于是毛利率的39% 。 可是,2019年的净利润占毛利润比例是30%。 只能说,非要给这么高的目标,蚂蚁要垫垫脚尖的话,还尚且能够着。 PE等倍数估值法有一个比较大的问题是,最终估值对估值倍数的变化比较敏感。一个小的变动可能就引起大范围的调整,同时对不同目标时期点的估值,如果不说清楚的话,也会相差较大。 所以从2800亿-480","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe8718f8125130c4579274811936ec0","width":"1467","height":"245"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301386651","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309293576,"gmtCreate":1602686010895,"gmtModify":1703827483999,"author":{"id":"3538077915411971","authorId":"3538077915411971","name":"全球股票","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aebb3517f22967e4589d5affef6aba89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOSY\">$正一科技(MOSY)$</a>哈哈哈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOSY\">$正一科技(MOSY)$</a>哈哈哈","text":"$正一科技(MOSY)$哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309293576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1327,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970648598,"gmtCreate":1597764683814,"gmtModify":1704216699761,"author":{"id":"3538077915411971","authorId":"3538077915411971","name":"全球股票","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aebb3517f22967e4589d5affef6aba89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970648598","repostId":"1126337562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126337562","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1597753847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126337562?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-18 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前:金牛王者归来!特斯拉势将站上1900美元关口","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126337562","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二盘前,美国三大股指期货盘前上涨,截至发稿,道指期货涨0.20%;纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.28%;标普500指数期货涨0.16%。标普创下今年2月至今的新高,而纳斯达克指数则是在连续两天的下降之","content":"<p>周二盘前,美国三大股指期货盘前上涨,截至发稿,道指期货涨0.20%;纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.28%;标普500指数期货涨0.16%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f242a367132e3e33b50eaaeed53548a\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"250\"></p><p>标普创下今年2月至今的新高,而纳斯达克指数则是在连续两天的下降之后,持续逼近上周的历史新高11108点。纳斯达克指数则更为夸张,2020年至今,纳斯达克指数累计涨幅已经达到的23%之多,相较于疫情时期的最低点,涨幅更是达到了惊人的60%。</p><p>政治因素方面,美国两党救援计划谈判依旧停滞不前,在如何进行新一轮经济刺激计划上意见分歧严重。卫生事件方面,前美联储主席格林斯潘表示,特朗普政府未能推动美国抗击卫生事件,美国如今新冠肺炎确诊人数已超560万,造成美国经济复苏面临脱轨的风险。</p><p><b>个股异动</b></p><p>“金牛归来”!黄金股盘前普涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">哈莫尼黄金</a>涨4.3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOLD\">巴里克黄金</a>涨3.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">赫克拉矿业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KGC\">金罗斯黄金</a>涨3%。时隔一周现货黄金重回2000美元关口,各大机构普遍认为黄金有望进一步攀升。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>盘前涨超8%,公司Q2总收入3.94亿元,超过上季度指引。Non-GAAP下归属<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>股东净利润为2.44亿元,公司现金储备及长期投资52.66亿元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前涨2.32%,股价势将站上1900美元整数关口。</p><p>Tiziana盘前涨超15%,公司获得治疗克罗恩病的美国专利。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">福沃德工业</a>盘前大涨53%,公司宣布收购Kablooe Design,Kablooe是一家创新的领先医疗和消费设计与开发公司。</p><p>GrowGeneration盘前涨超13%,二季度业绩大幅增长。公司上周四发布Q2业绩,其中,营收4345万美元,同比增长123%;毛利润飙升99%至1160万美元。GAAP下每股收益0.07美元,去年同期每股收益0.04美元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REDU\">瑞思学科英语</a>盘前涨超7%,二季度业绩环比大幅改善。二季度营收环比增长51.4%,净亏损环比大幅减少,二季度净亏损5800万元,一季度净亏损1.038亿元。</p><p>触宝盘前涨超4%,总营收1.3亿美元,同比增长236%;经调整后净利润为450万美元,上年同期则录得调整后净亏损1290万美元,实现扭亏为盈。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>盘前涨近3%,消息称其参与竞购TikTok的美国业务。据英国《金融时报》报道,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>表示有意收购TikTok,这将使得其成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>收购TikTok的竞争对手之一。微软在8月初的时候曾经公开表示,已就收购TikTok在美国、加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰的业务与字节跳动展开讨论。此外,微软还在考虑收购TikTok的全球业务,尤其是欧洲和印度。《金融时报》指出,甲骨文已经就收购抖音美国业务和字节跳动公司进行谈判,并且还在考虑收购TikTok在加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰的业务。另外,甲骨文正与字节跳动的美国投资者进行合作,包括红杉资本、泛<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">大西洋</a>资本集团等。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LX\">乐信</a>盘前涨超3%,第二季度营收30亿元,同比增长19%。</p><p><b>其他市场</b></p><p>欧洲股市集体走高,截止发稿时间,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数上涨0.03%,法国CAC40指数涨0.22%,德国DAX指数涨0.54%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a254d035002dd3d48d3eb3a46d2da4\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"346\">图片来源:英为财情</p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>国际油价下跌,美油报42.66美元/桶,日内跌0.54%;布油现报45.28美元/桶,日内跌0.20%。</p><p>油价小幅走弱,未能延续前一交易日涨势,但整体仍徘徊5个月高点附近,投资者对经济复苏可能即将到来的乐观情绪提振了石油需求将会增强的希望。美国一个衡量建筑商乐观情绪的指标跃升至1998年以来的最高水平,成为疫情大流行之际的一个经济亮点,围绕经济复苏的乐观情绪转化为原油需求将增加的希望。同时,一个技术专家小组周一正在评估OPEC+产量协议的履行情况,随后将在周三举行部长级会议。经过大幅减产后,该集团从本月开始放松减产力度。石油的涨势仍然受到全球冠状病毒病例激增并打压需求的约束。</p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>现货黄金日内涨0.80%,报2014.70美元/盎司。</p><p>因受到美元走弱、美债收益率回落的影响,提振投资者看涨黄金的情绪。由于实际利率保持在零以下,各国政府采取宽松措施来减轻疫情造成的经济损失,各大机构普遍认为黄金有望进一步攀升。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前:金牛王者归来!特斯拉势将站上1900美元关口</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前:金牛王者归来!特斯拉势将站上1900美元关口\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-18 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周二盘前,美国三大股指期货盘前上涨,截至发稿,道指期货涨0.20%;纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.28%;标普500指数期货涨0.16%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f242a367132e3e33b50eaaeed53548a\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"250\"></p><p>标普创下今年2月至今的新高,而纳斯达克指数则是在连续两天的下降之后,持续逼近上周的历史新高11108点。纳斯达克指数则更为夸张,2020年至今,纳斯达克指数累计涨幅已经达到的23%之多,相较于疫情时期的最低点,涨幅更是达到了惊人的60%。</p><p>政治因素方面,美国两党救援计划谈判依旧停滞不前,在如何进行新一轮经济刺激计划上意见分歧严重。卫生事件方面,前美联储主席格林斯潘表示,特朗普政府未能推动美国抗击卫生事件,美国如今新冠肺炎确诊人数已超560万,造成美国经济复苏面临脱轨的风险。</p><p><b>个股异动</b></p><p>“金牛归来”!黄金股盘前普涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HMY\">哈莫尼黄金</a>涨4.3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOLD\">巴里克黄金</a>涨3.5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HL\">赫克拉矿业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KGC\">金罗斯黄金</a>涨3%。时隔一周现货黄金重回2000美元关口,各大机构普遍认为黄金有望进一步攀升。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>盘前涨超8%,公司Q2总收入3.94亿元,超过上季度指引。Non-GAAP下归属<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>股东净利润为2.44亿元,公司现金储备及长期投资52.66亿元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>盘前涨2.32%,股价势将站上1900美元整数关口。</p><p>Tiziana盘前涨超15%,公司获得治疗克罗恩病的美国专利。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">福沃德工业</a>盘前大涨53%,公司宣布收购Kablooe Design,Kablooe是一家创新的领先医疗和消费设计与开发公司。</p><p>GrowGeneration盘前涨超13%,二季度业绩大幅增长。公司上周四发布Q2业绩,其中,营收4345万美元,同比增长123%;毛利润飙升99%至1160万美元。GAAP下每股收益0.07美元,去年同期每股收益0.04美元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REDU\">瑞思学科英语</a>盘前涨超7%,二季度业绩环比大幅改善。二季度营收环比增长51.4%,净亏损环比大幅减少,二季度净亏损5800万元,一季度净亏损1.038亿元。</p><p>触宝盘前涨超4%,总营收1.3亿美元,同比增长236%;经调整后净利润为450万美元,上年同期则录得调整后净亏损1290万美元,实现扭亏为盈。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>盘前涨近3%,消息称其参与竞购TikTok的美国业务。据英国《金融时报》报道,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>表示有意收购TikTok,这将使得其成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>收购TikTok的竞争对手之一。微软在8月初的时候曾经公开表示,已就收购TikTok在美国、加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰的业务与字节跳动展开讨论。此外,微软还在考虑收购TikTok的全球业务,尤其是欧洲和印度。《金融时报》指出,甲骨文已经就收购抖音美国业务和字节跳动公司进行谈判,并且还在考虑收购TikTok在加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰的业务。另外,甲骨文正与字节跳动的美国投资者进行合作,包括红杉资本、泛<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">大西洋</a>资本集团等。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LX\">乐信</a>盘前涨超3%,第二季度营收30亿元,同比增长19%。</p><p><b>其他市场</b></p><p>欧洲股市集体走高,截止发稿时间,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数上涨0.03%,法国CAC40指数涨0.22%,德国DAX指数涨0.54%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3a254d035002dd3d48d3eb3a46d2da4\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"346\">图片来源:英为财情</p><p><b>原油</b></p><p>国际油价下跌,美油报42.66美元/桶,日内跌0.54%;布油现报45.28美元/桶,日内跌0.20%。</p><p>油价小幅走弱,未能延续前一交易日涨势,但整体仍徘徊5个月高点附近,投资者对经济复苏可能即将到来的乐观情绪提振了石油需求将会增强的希望。美国一个衡量建筑商乐观情绪的指标跃升至1998年以来的最高水平,成为疫情大流行之际的一个经济亮点,围绕经济复苏的乐观情绪转化为原油需求将增加的希望。同时,一个技术专家小组周一正在评估OPEC+产量协议的履行情况,随后将在周三举行部长级会议。经过大幅减产后,该集团从本月开始放松减产力度。石油的涨势仍然受到全球冠状病毒病例激增并打压需求的约束。</p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>现货黄金日内涨0.80%,报2014.70美元/盎司。</p><p>因受到美元走弱、美债收益率回落的影响,提振投资者看涨黄金的情绪。由于实际利率保持在零以下,各国政府采取宽松措施来减轻疫情造成的经济损失,各大机构普遍认为黄金有望进一步攀升。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126337562","content_text":"周二盘前,美国三大股指期货盘前上涨,截至发稿,道指期货涨0.20%;纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.28%;标普500指数期货涨0.16%。标普创下今年2月至今的新高,而纳斯达克指数则是在连续两天的下降之后,持续逼近上周的历史新高11108点。纳斯达克指数则更为夸张,2020年至今,纳斯达克指数累计涨幅已经达到的23%之多,相较于疫情时期的最低点,涨幅更是达到了惊人的60%。政治因素方面,美国两党救援计划谈判依旧停滞不前,在如何进行新一轮经济刺激计划上意见分歧严重。卫生事件方面,前美联储主席格林斯潘表示,特朗普政府未能推动美国抗击卫生事件,美国如今新冠肺炎确诊人数已超560万,造成美国经济复苏面临脱轨的风险。个股异动“金牛归来”!黄金股盘前普涨,哈莫尼黄金涨4.3%,巴里克黄金涨3.5%,赫克拉矿业、金罗斯黄金涨3%。时隔一周现货黄金重回2000美元关口,各大机构普遍认为黄金有望进一步攀升。猎豹移动盘前涨超8%,公司Q2总收入3.94亿元,超过上季度指引。Non-GAAP下归属猎豹移动股东净利润为2.44亿元,公司现金储备及长期投资52.66亿元。特斯拉盘前涨2.32%,股价势将站上1900美元整数关口。Tiziana盘前涨超15%,公司获得治疗克罗恩病的美国专利。福沃德工业盘前大涨53%,公司宣布收购Kablooe Design,Kablooe是一家创新的领先医疗和消费设计与开发公司。GrowGeneration盘前涨超13%,二季度业绩大幅增长。公司上周四发布Q2业绩,其中,营收4345万美元,同比增长123%;毛利润飙升99%至1160万美元。GAAP下每股收益0.07美元,去年同期每股收益0.04美元。瑞思学科英语盘前涨超7%,二季度业绩环比大幅改善。二季度营收环比增长51.4%,净亏损环比大幅减少,二季度净亏损5800万元,一季度净亏损1.038亿元。触宝盘前涨超4%,总营收1.3亿美元,同比增长236%;经调整后净利润为450万美元,上年同期则录得调整后净亏损1290万美元,实现扭亏为盈。甲骨文盘前涨近3%,消息称其参与竞购TikTok的美国业务。据英国《金融时报》报道,甲骨文表示有意收购TikTok,这将使得其成为微软收购TikTok的竞争对手之一。微软在8月初的时候曾经公开表示,已就收购TikTok在美国、加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰的业务与字节跳动展开讨论。此外,微软还在考虑收购TikTok的全球业务,尤其是欧洲和印度。《金融时报》指出,甲骨文已经就收购抖音美国业务和字节跳动公司进行谈判,并且还在考虑收购TikTok在加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰的业务。另外,甲骨文正与字节跳动的美国投资者进行合作,包括红杉资本、泛大西洋资本集团等。乐信盘前涨超3%,第二季度营收30亿元,同比增长19%。其他市场欧洲股市集体走高,截止发稿时间,英国富时100指数上涨0.03%,法国CAC40指数涨0.22%,德国DAX指数涨0.54%。图片来源:英为财情原油国际油价下跌,美油报42.66美元/桶,日内跌0.54%;布油现报45.28美元/桶,日内跌0.20%。油价小幅走弱,未能延续前一交易日涨势,但整体仍徘徊5个月高点附近,投资者对经济复苏可能即将到来的乐观情绪提振了石油需求将会增强的希望。美国一个衡量建筑商乐观情绪的指标跃升至1998年以来的最高水平,成为疫情大流行之际的一个经济亮点,围绕经济复苏的乐观情绪转化为原油需求将增加的希望。同时,一个技术专家小组周一正在评估OPEC+产量协议的履行情况,随后将在周三举行部长级会议。经过大幅减产后,该集团从本月开始放松减产力度。石油的涨势仍然受到全球冠状病毒病例激增并打压需求的约束。黄金现货黄金日内涨0.80%,报2014.70美元/盎司。因受到美元走弱、美债收益率回落的影响,提振投资者看涨黄金的情绪。由于实际利率保持在零以下,各国政府采取宽松措施来减轻疫情造成的经济损失,各大机构普遍认为黄金有望进一步攀升。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970648959,"gmtCreate":1597764568271,"gmtModify":1704216698725,"author":{"id":"3538077915411971","authorId":"3538077915411971","name":"全球股票","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aebb3517f22967e4589d5affef6aba89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REDU\">$瑞思学科英语(REDU)$</a>[财迷] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REDU\">$瑞思学科英语(REDU)$</a>[财迷] ","text":"$瑞思学科英语(REDU)$[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970648959","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":926,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970641520,"gmtCreate":1597764497060,"gmtModify":1704216698207,"author":{"id":"3538077915411971","authorId":"3538077915411971","name":"全球股票","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aebb3517f22967e4589d5affef6aba89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">$福沃德工业(FORD)$</a>[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FORD\">$福沃德工业(FORD)$</a>[开心] ","text":"$福沃德工业(FORD)$[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970641520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970641004,"gmtCreate":1597764387908,"gmtModify":1704216696824,"author":{"id":"3538077915411971","authorId":"3538077915411971","name":"全球股票","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aebb3517f22967e4589d5affef6aba89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KGC\">$金罗斯黄金(KGC)$</a>哈喽","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KGC\">$金罗斯黄金(KGC)$</a>哈喽","text":"$金罗斯黄金(KGC)$哈喽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970641004","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970625261,"gmtCreate":1597761889953,"gmtModify":1704216674677,"author":{"id":"3538077915411971","authorId":"3538077915411971","name":"全球股票","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aebb3517f22967e4589d5affef6aba89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970625261","repostId":"1161226426","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161226426","pubTimestamp":1597742550,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161226426?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-18 17:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"手握1万亿元现金,巴菲特想干什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161226426","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"根据最新的二季度财报,巴菲特这只老狐狸,最近又有大动作了。一直都在鄙视黄金投资的巴菲特,居然斥资5.6亿美元买入了2090万股巴里克黄金公司的股票,这,这,这……与此同时,巴菲特还清仓了所有的航空股,","content":"<p>根据最新的二季度财报,巴菲特这只老狐狸,最近又有大动作了。</p><p>一直都在鄙视黄金投资的巴菲特,居然斥资5.6亿美元买入了2090万股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOLD\">巴里克黄金公司</a>的股票,这,这,这……</p><p>与此同时,巴菲特还清仓了所有的航空股,清仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>,另外大幅度缩减了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNC\">PNC金融</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTB\">M&T Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">纽约梅隆银行</a>等金融股的持仓量。</p><p>当然,作为股神嘛,买买卖卖股票都很正常,但现在最大的问题是——</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司</a>目前的现金类资产居然高达1466亿美元,折合人民币超过1万亿元,是有史以来的最高水平。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10798dcb597f6945ffc73abcadad5fa0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"776\"></p><p>我们一条一条地说。</p><p>巴菲特买入黄金股,大概算是他自1990年代炒白银之后再一次接触黄金白银这样的“货币类资产”。因为买入的额度并不大(5.64亿美元连其公司总资产的千分之一都不到),并不能说明他开始认同货币类资产的价值。</p><p>但是,他毕竟还是买了,这传递了一个信号,他也对美元的价值维持开始怀疑。</p><p>2011年,当标准普尔调低美国信用评级的时候,他站出来发声力挺美国,表示说对标普的做法不能理解,他个人愿给美国授予4A评级(标普中3A是最高评级)……而且随后不久,他又一次表达了对黄金投资的不认可,这说明在那个时候,他还是非常相信美元的价值。</p><p>然而,2020年3月,在美联储悍然宣布无限QE、没有底线地给金融体系注入资金、且连续表示说要将货币宽松政策一直延续的情况下,我认为,老巴这次是真的开始对美元的价值产生怀疑。</p><p>当然,大伙儿千万不要因为巴菲特投资了黄金股,就认为黄金短期内的价格该如何如何了,每一样资产都有自己的逻辑,除非你有巴菲特那样的资金和定力,否则很多东西,还是不要东施效颦地去抄作业。</p><p>在买入黄金股的同时,巴菲特却大肆清仓航空股、减仓银行股。</p><p>清仓航空股说明,老巴认为疫情将持续对整个世界产生深刻影响,因为直接见面的交流减少,航空公司的利润可能再也难以恢复,不如彻底放弃。</p><p>清仓全球第一投行高盛的股票,说明他对美国股市的未来,非常地不看好,至少在短期内,不认为投资投行是好的生意;大幅度卖出商业银行股票,说明他不仅不看好股市,对于整个银行体系的盈利也不是很看好。他倾向于认为,在美联储通过各种金融工具,直接向美国的消费者和企业输送资金和贷款的时代,持有太多银行股并非一个明智的选择。</p><p>也正是因为卖出了很多银行股的股票,导致了前面提到的第三个结果——巴菲特囤积了折合人民币上万亿元的现金。</p><p>1466亿美元的类现金资产,创下巴菲特有史以来持有现金额度的最高记录,如果说总现金规模还不能说明问题的话,那么现金在其总资产中的占比可能更能说明问题。</p><p>我特意将1994年迄今伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司所持有的类现金资产规模进行统计,同时与其实打实的总资产(净资产总规模-商誉)进行对比,结果发现,在过去的26年间,巴菲特所持有类现金资产的比例在1.3%-26.4%之间变动。</p><p>不难想象的是,持有现金比例越高,说明老巴对短期内的股市越不确定,而持有现金的比例越低,说明老巴这个时候非常愿意积极进取地买入股票,用我们的话来说:<b>满仓杀入</b>。</p><p>26年间,伯克希尔公司的类现金资产占比,只有4年超过20%,分别是2003年、2004年、2005年和2006年,这大概可以算作老巴对于股市涨跌特别不确定的年份。</p><p>有7年时间,伯克希尔公司的现金占比在5%以下,我特意对照了那个时候美国股市的标普指数,并不意外的是,全部都是股市处于低点的时期。</p><p>现在,巴菲特手持1466亿美元的类现金资产,相当于伯克希尔公司(总资产-商誉)的19.99%,现金比例排在其26年历史的第五位——尤其是,这个现金规模,比其2019年底的1252亿美元,还要高出来214亿美元。</p><p>这显然说明,巴菲特认为,现在的美国股市价格偏高,高到他手持万亿资产,都不愿意下手去投资,反而不断地变现……</p><p>关于过去26年伯克希尔公司的现金类资产规模、比例及当时标普的点位见下表。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c7bb9af6b1e7101a661c47abe8c7c3b\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"648\"></p><p>众所周知,巴菲特提出过一个巴菲特指标,用美国的股市总市值/国内生产总值:</p><p><b>“在任何时候这个指标能够衡量股市的估值,这个指标大于100%,表示股市过热,这个指标低于50%,表示股市被低估,合理的位置应该在70-80%左右。如果指标超过120%,那买入股票就是在玩火。”</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4102b10b429081f8b9a453346759e00d\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"545\"></p><p>然而,从2016年底开始,美股的巴菲特指标开始持续“玩火”,即便是在2020年3月份的历史性暴跌中,美股总市值/GDP也没有跌破100%,这正是2017年以来,巴菲特经常持有超过1000亿美元现金的原因。</p><p>2020年3月份的暴跌,证明了巴菲特2017年大量持有现金的远见——但,因为巴菲特指标始终没有跌破100%,没有达到巴菲特的心理安全线,所以巴菲特也一直没有选择“抄底”,最终错过了美股这一轮史诗级的反弹。</p><p>经过这一轮反弹之后,现在的巴菲特指标,再次勇闯新高,目前的值是:</p><p><b>178%!</b></p><p>比2000年科技股泡沫时期的历史极值147%,还要高出20%。</p><p><b>为什么会出现这种情况?</b></p><p><b>美股的投资者难道都是傻瓜么?</b></p><p>当然不是!</p><p>巴菲特指标持续“玩火”的原因,并不在投资者这里,而是在美联储这里,在美国国债收益率这里,在无风险收益率这里。</p><p>下图就是全球大类资产的定价之锚——美国十年期国债收益率40年的变动,可以看到,从20世纪80年代到现在,这个数据连续下降了40年。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f8178d1cb1da05cb29dbb4f99b3f9fb\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"533\"></p><p>而我无数次给大家强调过,无风险的国债收益率正是一切能产生现金流资产(如股票、债券、房产等)的计价基准。</p><p>(想了解这一逻辑请点击:先搞懂债券收益率,然后再来谈投资!)</p><p>在社会通货膨胀率没有大变化的情况下,理论上说:</p><p><b>如果10年期国债收益率10%,股票整体估值(市盈率PE)上限也就在10倍;</b></p><p><b>如果10年期国债收益率5%,股票整体估值(市盈率PE)上限也就在20倍;</b></p><p><b>如果10年期国债收益率降到2%,那么股票整体估值上限就可以抬升到50倍;</b></p><p><b>那么,如果国债的无风险收益率降到1%,理论上说,股票整体估值上限可以抬升到100倍。</b></p><p>同样的绝对收益率下降幅度,在国债低收益率时代,对于股市估值是更大的利好:</p><p><b>国债收益率从5%降到4%,股市的估值上限可以抬升25%,从20倍提升到25倍;</b></p><p><b>国债收益率从2%降低到1%,股市的估值上限可以抬升100%,从50倍提升到100倍;</b></p><p><b>……</b></p><p>从1995年到现在,美国10年期国债收益率从8%一路下降到2019年底的2%,这意味着,美股整体的估值上限,可以从12.5倍PE飙升到50倍PE,随着无风险收益率的持续下降,股市估值持续抬升,巴菲特指标自然就会持续升高并且居高不下了!</p><p>你是不是想知道,接下来的美国股市会怎么走?</p><p>那我们不妨看看,从2020年2月份到现在,美元资产的定海神针——10年期国债收益率的变动是怎样的一个情况。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b40bd7d9fc76f7a76d134a317308ac67\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"524\"></p><p>你看到了,十年期国债的无风险收益率从1.6%暴跌至0.68%——</p><p><b>你说说,股市该抬升多少?</b></p><p>但是,如果从短期来看,请注意,就从8月初开始,美国国债收益率开始逐渐抬升,从最低的0.5%,目前已经升至0.68%,如果这一轮国债收益率能上升至1%左右(对于美联储和美国政府来说,都是可以接受的,但不能再高了),包括黄金、股市都很有可能会经历一轮调整。</p><p>当然,这一切归根结底要看美联储,如果美联储坚持认为,印钞大放水一丝一毫都不能停息,持续刻意压低国债收益率(购买更多国债),可能股市就没什么调整——</p><p><b>毕竟,人家才真正是股(du)市(chang)的总庄家嘛!</b></p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>手握1万亿元现金,巴菲特想干什么?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n手握1万亿元现金,巴菲特想干什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-18 17:22 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ieZyeNoIz8HGEDF-Z-wP6g><strong>财主家的余粮</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>根据最新的二季度财报,巴菲特这只老狐狸,最近又有大动作了。一直都在鄙视黄金投资的巴菲特,居然斥资5.6亿美元买入了2090万股巴里克黄金公司的股票,这,这,这……与此同时,巴菲特还清仓了所有的航空股,清仓了高盛,另外大幅度缩减了摩根大通、富国银行、PNC金融、M&T Bank、纽约梅隆银行等金融股的持仓量。当然,作为股神嘛,买买卖卖股票都很正常,但现在最大的问题是——伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司目前的现金...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ieZyeNoIz8HGEDF-Z-wP6g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b9fef028787bba142fa31212ae49d2","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK":"纽约梅隆银行","GOLD":"巴里克黄金","GS":"高盛","WFC":"富国银行","MTB":"美国制商银行","JPM":"摩根大通","PNC":"PNC金融"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ieZyeNoIz8HGEDF-Z-wP6g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161226426","content_text":"根据最新的二季度财报,巴菲特这只老狐狸,最近又有大动作了。一直都在鄙视黄金投资的巴菲特,居然斥资5.6亿美元买入了2090万股巴里克黄金公司的股票,这,这,这……与此同时,巴菲特还清仓了所有的航空股,清仓了高盛,另外大幅度缩减了摩根大通、富国银行、PNC金融、M&T Bank、纽约梅隆银行等金融股的持仓量。当然,作为股神嘛,买买卖卖股票都很正常,但现在最大的问题是——伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司目前的现金类资产居然高达1466亿美元,折合人民币超过1万亿元,是有史以来的最高水平。我们一条一条地说。巴菲特买入黄金股,大概算是他自1990年代炒白银之后再一次接触黄金白银这样的“货币类资产”。因为买入的额度并不大(5.64亿美元连其公司总资产的千分之一都不到),并不能说明他开始认同货币类资产的价值。但是,他毕竟还是买了,这传递了一个信号,他也对美元的价值维持开始怀疑。2011年,当标准普尔调低美国信用评级的时候,他站出来发声力挺美国,表示说对标普的做法不能理解,他个人愿给美国授予4A评级(标普中3A是最高评级)……而且随后不久,他又一次表达了对黄金投资的不认可,这说明在那个时候,他还是非常相信美元的价值。然而,2020年3月,在美联储悍然宣布无限QE、没有底线地给金融体系注入资金、且连续表示说要将货币宽松政策一直延续的情况下,我认为,老巴这次是真的开始对美元的价值产生怀疑。当然,大伙儿千万不要因为巴菲特投资了黄金股,就认为黄金短期内的价格该如何如何了,每一样资产都有自己的逻辑,除非你有巴菲特那样的资金和定力,否则很多东西,还是不要东施效颦地去抄作业。在买入黄金股的同时,巴菲特却大肆清仓航空股、减仓银行股。清仓航空股说明,老巴认为疫情将持续对整个世界产生深刻影响,因为直接见面的交流减少,航空公司的利润可能再也难以恢复,不如彻底放弃。清仓全球第一投行高盛的股票,说明他对美国股市的未来,非常地不看好,至少在短期内,不认为投资投行是好的生意;大幅度卖出商业银行股票,说明他不仅不看好股市,对于整个银行体系的盈利也不是很看好。他倾向于认为,在美联储通过各种金融工具,直接向美国的消费者和企业输送资金和贷款的时代,持有太多银行股并非一个明智的选择。也正是因为卖出了很多银行股的股票,导致了前面提到的第三个结果——巴菲特囤积了折合人民币上万亿元的现金。1466亿美元的类现金资产,创下巴菲特有史以来持有现金额度的最高记录,如果说总现金规模还不能说明问题的话,那么现金在其总资产中的占比可能更能说明问题。我特意将1994年迄今伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司所持有的类现金资产规模进行统计,同时与其实打实的总资产(净资产总规模-商誉)进行对比,结果发现,在过去的26年间,巴菲特所持有类现金资产的比例在1.3%-26.4%之间变动。不难想象的是,持有现金比例越高,说明老巴对短期内的股市越不确定,而持有现金的比例越低,说明老巴这个时候非常愿意积极进取地买入股票,用我们的话来说:满仓杀入。26年间,伯克希尔公司的类现金资产占比,只有4年超过20%,分别是2003年、2004年、2005年和2006年,这大概可以算作老巴对于股市涨跌特别不确定的年份。有7年时间,伯克希尔公司的现金占比在5%以下,我特意对照了那个时候美国股市的标普指数,并不意外的是,全部都是股市处于低点的时期。现在,巴菲特手持1466亿美元的类现金资产,相当于伯克希尔公司(总资产-商誉)的19.99%,现金比例排在其26年历史的第五位——尤其是,这个现金规模,比其2019年底的1252亿美元,还要高出来214亿美元。这显然说明,巴菲特认为,现在的美国股市价格偏高,高到他手持万亿资产,都不愿意下手去投资,反而不断地变现……关于过去26年伯克希尔公司的现金类资产规模、比例及当时标普的点位见下表。众所周知,巴菲特提出过一个巴菲特指标,用美国的股市总市值/国内生产总值:“在任何时候这个指标能够衡量股市的估值,这个指标大于100%,表示股市过热,这个指标低于50%,表示股市被低估,合理的位置应该在70-80%左右。如果指标超过120%,那买入股票就是在玩火。”然而,从2016年底开始,美股的巴菲特指标开始持续“玩火”,即便是在2020年3月份的历史性暴跌中,美股总市值/GDP也没有跌破100%,这正是2017年以来,巴菲特经常持有超过1000亿美元现金的原因。2020年3月份的暴跌,证明了巴菲特2017年大量持有现金的远见——但,因为巴菲特指标始终没有跌破100%,没有达到巴菲特的心理安全线,所以巴菲特也一直没有选择“抄底”,最终错过了美股这一轮史诗级的反弹。经过这一轮反弹之后,现在的巴菲特指标,再次勇闯新高,目前的值是:178%!比2000年科技股泡沫时期的历史极值147%,还要高出20%。为什么会出现这种情况?美股的投资者难道都是傻瓜么?当然不是!巴菲特指标持续“玩火”的原因,并不在投资者这里,而是在美联储这里,在美国国债收益率这里,在无风险收益率这里。下图就是全球大类资产的定价之锚——美国十年期国债收益率40年的变动,可以看到,从20世纪80年代到现在,这个数据连续下降了40年。而我无数次给大家强调过,无风险的国债收益率正是一切能产生现金流资产(如股票、债券、房产等)的计价基准。(想了解这一逻辑请点击:先搞懂债券收益率,然后再来谈投资!)在社会通货膨胀率没有大变化的情况下,理论上说:如果10年期国债收益率10%,股票整体估值(市盈率PE)上限也就在10倍;如果10年期国债收益率5%,股票整体估值(市盈率PE)上限也就在20倍;如果10年期国债收益率降到2%,那么股票整体估值上限就可以抬升到50倍;那么,如果国债的无风险收益率降到1%,理论上说,股票整体估值上限可以抬升到100倍。同样的绝对收益率下降幅度,在国债低收益率时代,对于股市估值是更大的利好:国债收益率从5%降到4%,股市的估值上限可以抬升25%,从20倍提升到25倍;国债收益率从2%降低到1%,股市的估值上限可以抬升100%,从50倍提升到100倍;……从1995年到现在,美国10年期国债收益率从8%一路下降到2019年底的2%,这意味着,美股整体的估值上限,可以从12.5倍PE飙升到50倍PE,随着无风险收益率的持续下降,股市估值持续抬升,巴菲特指标自然就会持续升高并且居高不下了!你是不是想知道,接下来的美国股市会怎么走?那我们不妨看看,从2020年2月份到现在,美元资产的定海神针——10年期国债收益率的变动是怎样的一个情况。你看到了,十年期国债的无风险收益率从1.6%暴跌至0.68%——你说说,股市该抬升多少?但是,如果从短期来看,请注意,就从8月初开始,美国国债收益率开始逐渐抬升,从最低的0.5%,目前已经升至0.68%,如果这一轮国债收益率能上升至1%左右(对于美联储和美国政府来说,都是可以接受的,但不能再高了),包括黄金、股市都很有可能会经历一轮调整。当然,这一切归根结底要看美联储,如果美联储坚持认为,印钞大放水一丝一毫都不能停息,持续刻意压低国债收益率(购买更多国债),可能股市就没什么调整——毕竟,人家才真正是股(du)市(chang)的总庄家嘛!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946033374,"gmtCreate":1595514695898,"gmtModify":1704209292257,"author":{"id":"3538077915411971","authorId":"3538077915411971","name":"全球股票","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aebb3517f22967e4589d5affef6aba89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946033374","repostId":"948864706","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":948864706,"gmtCreate":1595325145105,"gmtModify":1704208536927,"author":{"id":"3530336145106436","authorId":"3530336145106436","name":"晚点LatePost","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c32cb84ee54b000cd209818c2e8ec13","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"阿里价值观简史","htmlText":"每一次大型业务扩张和人员扩张,都会带来价值观问题,都会带来新一轮的改变。 文|管艺雯 编辑|宋玮 阿里巴巴创始人马云曾说,“价值观、使命、目标是任何一家企业都必须有的东西,如果没有这三样东西,就走不长、走不远、长不大。”价值观从阿里创立之初就伴随着这家公司,但一直到阿里创立2年后才正式成文。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 2001年1月13日,星期六,是关明生加入阿里巴巴担任COO(首席运营官)的第六天。这一天,以马云、蔡崇信、彭蕾等人为主的阿里创始人团队提炼了阿里巴巴第一版价值观。 那天关明生提议,要把阿里的理念从目标、使命、价值观三个方面写下来。马云提到很多价值观,整整写了五六十张纸,关明生跟彭蕾一人拿一半,把这些价值观写到了玻璃板上。 最后大家对着玻璃板,用了7个小时一起商量出9个价值观,命名“独孤九剑”。 “激情、创新、教学相长、开放、简易、群策群力、专注、质量、服务与尊重。”阿里巴巴1.0版本的价值观,问世了。 2004年夏天,在微软担任HRBP(HR Business Partner,人力资源业务合作伙伴)的邓康明加入阿里巴巴,他回忆,第一版价值观虽然很好,但其产生方式是从上而下的,由最核心的创始合伙人讨论形成。 阿里正变得越来越庞大,2005年阿里势头正猛,接管雅虎中国后,阿里巴巴B2B准备上市,淘宝成交额在国内已经超过eBay,面对急速扩张的组织规模,价值观在落地中逐渐遇到一些理解与传递上的挑战。 在马云的支持下,邓康明启动了第一次价值观升级。 这一年阿里开了一场员工大会,300多人在一间小小的会议室,用了","listText":"每一次大型业务扩张和人员扩张,都会带来价值观问题,都会带来新一轮的改变。 文|管艺雯 编辑|宋玮 阿里巴巴创始人马云曾说,“价值观、使命、目标是任何一家企业都必须有的东西,如果没有这三样东西,就走不长、走不远、长不大。”价值观从阿里创立之初就伴随着这家公司,但一直到阿里创立2年后才正式成文。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 2001年1月13日,星期六,是关明生加入阿里巴巴担任COO(首席运营官)的第六天。这一天,以马云、蔡崇信、彭蕾等人为主的阿里创始人团队提炼了阿里巴巴第一版价值观。 那天关明生提议,要把阿里的理念从目标、使命、价值观三个方面写下来。马云提到很多价值观,整整写了五六十张纸,关明生跟彭蕾一人拿一半,把这些价值观写到了玻璃板上。 最后大家对着玻璃板,用了7个小时一起商量出9个价值观,命名“独孤九剑”。 “激情、创新、教学相长、开放、简易、群策群力、专注、质量、服务与尊重。”阿里巴巴1.0版本的价值观,问世了。 2004年夏天,在微软担任HRBP(HR Business Partner,人力资源业务合作伙伴)的邓康明加入阿里巴巴,他回忆,第一版价值观虽然很好,但其产生方式是从上而下的,由最核心的创始合伙人讨论形成。 阿里正变得越来越庞大,2005年阿里势头正猛,接管雅虎中国后,阿里巴巴B2B准备上市,淘宝成交额在国内已经超过eBay,面对急速扩张的组织规模,价值观在落地中逐渐遇到一些理解与传递上的挑战。 在马云的支持下,邓康明启动了第一次价值观升级。 这一年阿里开了一场员工大会,300多人在一间小小的会议室,用了","text":"每一次大型业务扩张和人员扩张,都会带来价值观问题,都会带来新一轮的改变。 文|管艺雯 编辑|宋玮 阿里巴巴创始人马云曾说,“价值观、使命、目标是任何一家企业都必须有的东西,如果没有这三样东西,就走不长、走不远、长不大。”价值观从阿里创立之初就伴随着这家公司,但一直到阿里创立2年后才正式成文。$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 2001年1月13日,星期六,是关明生加入阿里巴巴担任COO(首席运营官)的第六天。这一天,以马云、蔡崇信、彭蕾等人为主的阿里创始人团队提炼了阿里巴巴第一版价值观。 那天关明生提议,要把阿里的理念从目标、使命、价值观三个方面写下来。马云提到很多价值观,整整写了五六十张纸,关明生跟彭蕾一人拿一半,把这些价值观写到了玻璃板上。 最后大家对着玻璃板,用了7个小时一起商量出9个价值观,命名“独孤九剑”。 “激情、创新、教学相长、开放、简易、群策群力、专注、质量、服务与尊重。”阿里巴巴1.0版本的价值观,问世了。 2004年夏天,在微软担任HRBP(HR Business Partner,人力资源业务合作伙伴)的邓康明加入阿里巴巴,他回忆,第一版价值观虽然很好,但其产生方式是从上而下的,由最核心的创始合伙人讨论形成。 阿里正变得越来越庞大,2005年阿里势头正猛,接管雅虎中国后,阿里巴巴B2B准备上市,淘宝成交额在国内已经超过eBay,面对急速扩张的组织规模,价值观在落地中逐渐遇到一些理解与传递上的挑战。 在马云的支持下,邓康明启动了第一次价值观升级。 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