无尽荒神的个人主页 - 老虎社区

无尽荒神

止损止盈，会买会卖

IP属地：上海

22关注

3粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2021-08-04

$微美全息(WIMI)$拉到22

2021-07-30

$微美全息(WIMI)$最近，可能要拉！！！

2021-07-21

$Cytokinetics(CYTK)$增发价27.5

2021-06-15

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$今天拉升，预计12到15

2021-05-25

$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$等你到480

2021-04-20

$特斯拉(TSLA)$从现在起，未来两年内做空特斯拉

2021-03-08

$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$暴涨的前奏

2021-03-03

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$这股我看不懂了。每天几毛钱有意思吗

2021-02-25

$克莱瑞恩(CLSN)$这是要被气球🎈拖到天台吗

2021-02-16

$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$看到60

2021-02-04

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$求你了，老庄。拉高到12块，一起过个好年吧

2021-01-28

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$还没有尽兴，就完事了？

2021-01-25

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$想想，还是拜拜了，每天几分钱，没劲

2021-01-25

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$刚卖就涨[打脸]

2020-12-03

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$很多人都在说车子没有卖多少，为什么估值比传统汽车高。我觉得存在这样子疑惑的人，大多是非行业内部的软件从业者。对于传统汽车，车辆卖给用户是终点。而新势力所奉行的软件定义汽车，车辆卖给用户则是起点。在我看来，这就是为什么特斯拉估值很高的最重要的原因。

2020-11-25

非激光雷达的自动驾驶感知是对消费者最大的欺骗。我作为一个研发人员，认为它是在收割智商税。收智商税也就罢了，但我更希望用户能够平安吧。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-11-21

$CPE2 20220121 2.0 CALL(CPE2)$我的10万美金呢

2020-11-16

在100多年前，汽车革命的时候，很多巨擘投身汽车界，然而混的好的也不多。大多都是破产，然后潦倒终身。后来者居上比较多。历史只不过在老贾身上重演了。

人民想念贾跃亭

2020-07-10

$卡隆石油(CPE)$敦刻尔克大撤退

2020-06-25

$卡隆石油(CPE)$这个股票咋回事？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>，并表示：</font></p><p><font><font>产品和技术创新力是下一代汽车产业变革的核心价值和驱动力，FF会继续集中资源专注投入，持续为行业发挥引领作用。</font></font></p><p><font>此时距离贾跃亭上一次个人破产重组方案生效时发声表示将用打工的方式创业，重启人生、兑现承诺，已过去了四个多月。</font></p><p><font>很显然，此次再度发声并且还是在蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车集体股价狂飙的时间点上，贾跃亭意在提醒外界，大家别忘了，我也在努力造车。</font></p><p><font>是的在此前，投资圈已经将贾跃亭逐渐忘却。</font></p><p><font>即便他声称自己还在努力，即便他声称自己还在奋斗，即便他声称自己尽责到底打工还钱，但他已经彻底地消失在互联网主流舞台之上。仅有的流量窗口，也是伴随着乐视网退市、个人破产重组方案生效等随之而来对其的鞭笞与争议。</font></p><p><font>一个让贾跃亭或更难以接受的事实是，时下这场新能源造车新势力的资本狂欢盛宴，也与他彻底无关。</font></p><p><font>他本来可能是最有机会的。</font></p><p><font>复盘来看，无论是视频网站、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机、新能源汽车，每一个都是上千亿美元的生意，这三个主流商业模式贾跃亭很早就看到了机会，也都下注了。</font></p><p><font>还有贾跃亭提的生态化反体系，现在几乎所有的互联网巨头也都在做。</font></p><p><font>但是贾跃亭没有做出来。以至于业内有感，不得不说，贾跃亭是战略大师，他如果把这个眼光拿去炒股票，买入三家公司（网飞、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、特斯拉），他可能会成为当代中国的巴菲特。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/79/w1080h599/20201116/4c70-kcysmrv9997718.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>只是没有如果。</font></p><p><font>以新能源造车为例。</font></p><p><font>六年前的11月26日，贾跃亭在微博上第一次公开了乐视造车的“SEE计划”。</font></p><p><font><font>“为改善人类生存环境、为让每个中国人都能呼吸纯洁空气、为推动一场新的产业革命，我们#SEE计划#见。”</font></font></p><p><font>当时的梦想是那么宏亮，当时的意气是那么的风发。</font></p><p><font>彼时虽然李斌、何小鹏也看到了新能源造车赛道的广阔空间，纷纷投身其中创业，但在新能源造车舞台上，振臂一呼以及风头最盛的还是贾跃亭。</font></p><p><font>无论是声量上，融资上，当然还有PPT等概念上，贾跃亭的FF汽车都是最笑傲群雄的。</font></p><p><font>更在2017年1月3日，FF 91作为FF首款可量产车，在拉斯维加斯被正式发布。续航超过700公里、提速2.39秒，聚光灯下的贾跃亭用不标准的英文惊叹“very cool !”。</font></p><p><font>那天孙红雷去拉斯维加斯现场支持、李亚鹏看完贾跃亭演讲立即提交了5万元预订款、林志颖和秦岚亦在在贾跃亭微博下连连称赞。</font></p><p><font>当然还有技术上。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/32/w499h333/20201116/9dc5-kcysmrv9997792.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>当天亮相的，FF91可达700km续航，最大电池组容量比特斯拉还要超出30kWh，达130kWh。在车身设计上，FF91的风阻系数为0.25，而特斯拉的ModelS、X则在0.24的水准。此外FF91还搭载30多个智慧感测器和智能升降3D镭射雷达，拥有无人自动泊车、面部识别技术、无缝进入系统等先进技术等。</font></p><p><font>在2017年全美顶级赛事派克峰拉力赛中，FF91还以超越特斯拉ModelS逾20秒的成绩打破全球纯电动汽车纪录。</font></p><p><font>但后来的事情，大家都知道了。贾跃亭带着乐视网的万千股民，一同“为梦想窒息”了。贾跃亭本人以去美国造车的名义，去往大洋彼岸就此一去不回，仅留下“下周回国”，以及“微博造车”的传奇。</font></p><p><font>而李斌、何小鹏、李想组成的“造车三杰”，则成为了国产新能源造车势力挑战特斯拉的代表，纷纷量产交付，纷纷拿到美股资本市场门票，并纷纷股价高涨，市值狂飙。</font></p><p><font>公开资料显示，2020年以来蔚来股价飙涨10倍，目前市值600亿美元，已超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>，成为新一代互联网巨头公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>飙涨180%，目前市值308亿美元。理想汽车飙涨170%，目前市值260亿美元。</font></p><p><font>还有特斯拉，股价飙涨388%，目前市值3872亿美元。</font></p><p><font>所有的造车新势力，都在今年体验到了资本市场的疯狂热情，实现了夸张的溢价，除了贾跃亭。</font></p><p><font>虽然差不多同时起跑，虽然曾是行业核心主角，但时隔六年，贾跃亭的FF汽车至今仍未完成量产交付，在外界视野里是彻头彻尾的停留在“PPT”阶段。</font></p><p><font>甚至贾跃亭曾“背叛”的，起步较晚的恒大，旗下新能源汽车品牌也已进入到量产倒计时阶段。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/33/w500h333/20201116/321d-kcysmrv9997795.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>不过即便如此，事实上FF依然手里握有大量世界领先的专利。</font></p><p><font>2018年，公开资料显示，FF已经拥有了世界最先进的新能源汽车技术，在全球拥有超过1000名科研专家及380件专利。</font></p><p><font>再到现今，也就是此次贾跃亭发声品宣的主要内容：</font></p><p><font><font>一份来自专利数据分析公司RSIP报告证实，FF的多元化专利组合在同类技术上比包括丰田、福特和本田在内的OEM厂商更加强大。RSIP认定，其电动汽车专利组合在关键技术上与特斯拉不相上下。</font></font></p><p><font><font>研究结果指出，FF的专利组合初始优先权日期为2015年1月份，其在全球范围内正在申请或已获授权的实用和外观设计专利约有880项，其中已获授权专利530项，许多专利都与互联网、自动驾驶和智能有关。</font></font></p><p><font>这些专利，均是FF的核心资产，也的确是贾跃亭精心布局，顶着信用破产一步步融资筹措而换来的心血。但却未能赶上这波资本市场对新能源造车新势力的疯狂追捧，只能说时也运也命也。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/42/w500h342/20201116/acd4-kcysmrv9997849.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font><font>“期待王者归来。”</font></font></p><p><font><font>“加油，打脸那些嘲笑的人。”</font></font></p><p><font><font>“虽然我一年的收入投入乐视被清零，但我依然坚信贾总你会成功。”</font></font></p><p><font><font>“你只是缺钱，资金到位，FF比小鹏蔚来强多了。”</font></font></p><p><font>贾跃亭11月13日的微头条下，评论很多，不乏广泛的支持者。他们认为，如果贾跃亭的FF也早早完成上市的话，凭借着FF的技术，亦能赶上这波资本市场对新能源造车势力的追捧热潮。别说还清债务了，再造一个新的巅峰乐视，都木得问题。</font></p><p><font>他们也相信，如果此前债务方以及市场愿意给贾跃亭更多的包容，那么现今的FF早就跑出来了，贾跃亭的生态化反也将完全成型，乐视将会是另一个结局。</font></p><p><font>当然亦有倒台者。</font></p><p><font>比如有的建议贾跃亭，把FF将持续为行业发挥引领作用这一句话中的“引领”二字去掉，因为行业都快没FF了，还引领呢。</font></p><p><font>有的建议贾跃亭，别再PPT、社交媒体造车上，量产上市先。否则，直播带货这个风口，你贾跃亭都没赶上，这波再错过，更没戏了。</font></p><p><font>确实对于贾跃亭而言，即便FF技术专利深厚领先，但再不量产交付，可能黄花菜都凉了。</font></p><p><font>而在量产交付前，贾跃亭依旧需要时不时出面秀下存在感，可能资本视野中的造车新势力概念，彻底没他这号人物了。</font></p><p><font>终究是意难平，毕竟曾经响当当一号人物，毕竟曾经是贾布斯。</font></p><p><font>更何况人民还都记得他，想念着他，甭管是认为他贾跃亭是大梦想家，还是那个大骗子，并且还时常念叨着到底什么时候他才能回国，这些答案只有贾跃亭本人才能给出。</font></p>跨年行情来了？提前布局【立即上车，领开户福利】</body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>人民想念贾跃亭</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n人民想念贾跃亭\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-16 18:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6235467698_173a9afb201900sf4m.html><strong>锌财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文/叶二北京时间11月12日晚，国内的新能源造车新势力迎来了一个狂欢夜。当天的美股交易日内，蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车分别大涨33%、27%、12%，市值狂飙不止。面对此种盛况，李斌、何小鹏、李想这三位核心主角还没有所表示，倒是远在大洋彼岸的贾跃亭，率先坐不住了。后者转发了一条FF关于电动汽车专利与特斯拉不相上下的微博，并表示：产品和技术创新力是下一代汽车产业变革的核心价值和驱动力，FF会继续集中资源...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6235467698_173a9afb201900sf4m.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a3754f388f30b5f7e5d59651613a82b","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_6235467698_173a9afb201900sf4m.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2083455109","content_text":"文/叶二北京时间11月12日晚，国内的新能源造车新势力迎来了一个狂欢夜。当天的美股交易日内，蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车分别大涨33%、27%、12%，市值狂飙不止。面对此种盛况，李斌、何小鹏、李想这三位核心主角还没有所表示，倒是远在大洋彼岸的贾跃亭，率先坐不住了。后者转发了一条FF关于电动汽车专利与特斯拉不相上下的微博，并表示：产品和技术创新力是下一代汽车产业变革的核心价值和驱动力，FF会继续集中资源专注投入，持续为行业发挥引领作用。此时距离贾跃亭上一次个人破产重组方案生效时发声表示将用打工的方式创业，重启人生、兑现承诺，已过去了四个多月。很显然，此次再度发声并且还是在蔚来、小鹏、理想汽车集体股价狂飙的时间点上，贾跃亭意在提醒外界，大家别忘了，我也在努力造车。是的在此前，投资圈已经将贾跃亭逐渐忘却。即便他声称自己还在努力，即便他声称自己还在奋斗，即便他声称自己尽责到底打工还钱，但他已经彻底地消失在互联网主流舞台之上。仅有的流量窗口，也是伴随着乐视网退市、个人破产重组方案生效等随之而来对其的鞭笞与争议。一个让贾跃亭或更难以接受的事实是，时下这场新能源造车新势力的资本狂欢盛宴，也与他彻底无关。他本来可能是最有机会的。复盘来看，无论是视频网站、智能手机、新能源汽车，每一个都是上千亿美元的生意，这三个主流商业模式贾跃亭很早就看到了机会，也都下注了。还有贾跃亭提的生态化反体系，现在几乎所有的互联网巨头也都在做。但是贾跃亭没有做出来。以至于业内有感，不得不说，贾跃亭是战略大师，他如果把这个眼光拿去炒股票，买入三家公司（网飞、苹果、特斯拉），他可能会成为当代中国的巴菲特。只是没有如果。以新能源造车为例。六年前的11月26日，贾跃亭在微博上第一次公开了乐视造车的“SEE计划”。“为改善人类生存环境、为让每个中国人都能呼吸纯洁空气、为推动一场新的产业革命，我们#SEE计划#见。”当时的梦想是那么宏亮，当时的意气是那么的风发。彼时虽然李斌、何小鹏也看到了新能源造车赛道的广阔空间，纷纷投身其中创业，但在新能源造车舞台上，振臂一呼以及风头最盛的还是贾跃亭。无论是声量上，融资上，当然还有PPT等概念上，贾跃亭的FF汽车都是最笑傲群雄的。更在2017年1月3日，FF 91作为FF首款可量产车，在拉斯维加斯被正式发布。续航超过700公里、提速2.39秒，聚光灯下的贾跃亭用不标准的英文惊叹“very cool !”。那天孙红雷去拉斯维加斯现场支持、李亚鹏看完贾跃亭演讲立即提交了5万元预订款、林志颖和秦岚亦在在贾跃亭微博下连连称赞。当然还有技术上。当天亮相的，FF91可达700km续航，最大电池组容量比特斯拉还要超出30kWh，达130kWh。在车身设计上，FF91的风阻系数为0.25，而特斯拉的ModelS、X则在0.24的水准。此外FF91还搭载30多个智慧感测器和智能升降3D镭射雷达，拥有无人自动泊车、面部识别技术、无缝进入系统等先进技术等。在2017年全美顶级赛事派克峰拉力赛中，FF91还以超越特斯拉ModelS逾20秒的成绩打破全球纯电动汽车纪录。但后来的事情，大家都知道了。贾跃亭带着乐视网的万千股民，一同“为梦想窒息”了。贾跃亭本人以去美国造车的名义，去往大洋彼岸就此一去不回，仅留下“下周回国”，以及“微博造车”的传奇。而李斌、何小鹏、李想组成的“造车三杰”，则成为了国产新能源造车势力挑战特斯拉的代表，纷纷量产交付，纷纷拿到美股资本市场门票，并纷纷股价高涨，市值狂飙。公开资料显示，2020年以来蔚来股价飙涨10倍，目前市值600亿美元，已超过百度，成为新一代互联网巨头公司。小鹏汽车飙涨180%，目前市值308亿美元。理想汽车飙涨170%，目前市值260亿美元。还有特斯拉，股价飙涨388%，目前市值3872亿美元。所有的造车新势力，都在今年体验到了资本市场的疯狂热情，实现了夸张的溢价，除了贾跃亭。虽然差不多同时起跑，虽然曾是行业核心主角，但时隔六年，贾跃亭的FF汽车至今仍未完成量产交付，在外界视野里是彻头彻尾的停留在“PPT”阶段。甚至贾跃亭曾“背叛”的，起步较晚的恒大，旗下新能源汽车品牌也已进入到量产倒计时阶段。不过即便如此，事实上FF依然手里握有大量世界领先的专利。2018年，公开资料显示，FF已经拥有了世界最先进的新能源汽车技术，在全球拥有超过1000名科研专家及380件专利。再到现今，也就是此次贾跃亭发声品宣的主要内容：一份来自专利数据分析公司RSIP报告证实，FF的多元化专利组合在同类技术上比包括丰田、福特和本田在内的OEM厂商更加强大。RSIP认定，其电动汽车专利组合在关键技术上与特斯拉不相上下。研究结果指出，FF的专利组合初始优先权日期为2015年1月份，其在全球范围内正在申请或已获授权的实用和外观设计专利约有880项，其中已获授权专利530项，许多专利都与互联网、自动驾驶和智能有关。这些专利，均是FF的核心资产，也的确是贾跃亭精心布局，顶着信用破产一步步融资筹措而换来的心血。但却未能赶上这波资本市场对新能源造车新势力的疯狂追捧，只能说时也运也命也。“期待王者归来。”“加油，打脸那些嘲笑的人。”“虽然我一年的收入投入乐视被清零，但我依然坚信贾总你会成功。”“你只是缺钱，资金到位，FF比小鹏蔚来强多了。”贾跃亭11月13日的微头条下，评论很多，不乏广泛的支持者。他们认为，如果贾跃亭的FF也早早完成上市的话，凭借着FF的技术，亦能赶上这波资本市场对新能源造车势力的追捧热潮。别说还清债务了，再造一个新的巅峰乐视，都木得问题。他们也相信，如果此前债务方以及市场愿意给贾跃亭更多的包容，那么现今的FF早就跑出来了，贾跃亭的生态化反也将完全成型，乐视将会是另一个结局。当然亦有倒台者。比如有的建议贾跃亭，把FF将持续为行业发挥引领作用这一句话中的“引领”二字去掉，因为行业都快没FF了，还引领呢。有的建议贾跃亭，别再PPT、社交媒体造车上，量产上市先。否则，直播带货这个风口，你贾跃亭都没赶上，这波再错过，更没戏了。确实对于贾跃亭而言，即便FF技术专利深厚领先，但再不量产交付，可能黄花菜都凉了。而在量产交付前，贾跃亭依旧需要时不时出面秀下存在感，可能资本视野中的造车新势力概念，彻底没他这号人物了。终究是意难平，毕竟曾经响当当一号人物，毕竟曾经是贾布斯。更何况人民还都记得他，想念着他，甭管是认为他贾跃亭是大梦想家，还是那个大骗子，并且还时常念叨着到底什么时候他才能回国，这些答案只有贾跃亭本人才能给出。跨年行情来了？提前布局【立即上车，领开户福利】","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943392795,"gmtCreate":1594387514617,"gmtModify":1704205497306,"author":{"id":"3529520536612103","authorId":"3529520536612103","name":"无尽荒神","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3529520536612103","idStr":"3529520536612103"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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11:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"做空特斯拉就像对抗美联储？它的护城河有多深","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104845231","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特斯拉凭什么？","content":"<p>作者：李一帆</p>\n<p>北京时间11月24日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克发了条推特，称“第五个测试版全自动驾驶系统（FSDBeta版）将在几天后到来，同时改变将是巨大的。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdcafd93a026604f5ff9d976cb2a6059\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"181\"></p>\n<p>一时间迎来了“万众”期待和狂欢。</p>\n<p>当天，特斯拉股价收涨逾6%创新高，市值首次突破5000亿美元大关。马斯克个人的净资产当天已升至1279亿美元（约合8422亿元人民币），超越微软公司创始人比尔·盖茨，跃升为全球第二大富豪，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>创始人贝索斯。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33942277a7d8e0a636fbfbda6f960b3a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>狂欢的点是：早在今年8月，马斯克就放话这次FSD更新将会有质的飞跃，因为这次不是普通的系统改进，而是底层代码和架构推倒重写的全新版本。</p>\n<p>10月下旬，特斯拉FSD Beta版已向海外小部分车主推送了试用，目的是收集车主反馈，正式上线前再做最后的改进。</p>\n<p>所以现在的FSD Beta版已经有了相当多的精彩实测。</p>\n<p>比如，车辆在非封闭道路的路口左转前成功识别了交通信号灯，并先“礼让”了对向直行车辆，然后完成左转；自主通过环岛，旁边车道有大货车靠近时，车辆自动折叠收起了外后视镜；一路上成功识别和避开桩筒，流畅的过程就像有人驾驶一样。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/145866f616f186bf420771d29cac55b8\" tg-width=\"448\" tg-height=\"251\"></p>\n<p>相关视频越多，人们的期待值就越被拉高，有外媒判断FSD Beta版发布后，非激光雷达自动驾驶这个战场才是号角真正吹响。</p>\n<p>近几年来，传统车企与新势力此起彼伏、争奇斗艳，可时至今日仍能原地激发大量野生视频，且仅凭野生视频就能抓人眼球的汽车品牌，依然有且只有特斯拉。</p>\n<p>“双面”特斯拉</p>\n<p>很多时候特斯拉的形象就像一架摇摆的天平，网友们期待FSD Beta版的神情似乎完全忘记了几天之前让特斯拉登上热搜的，还是不堪的品控问题。</p>\n<p>几天前的特斯拉有点“不讲武德”。</p>\n<p>11月22日，一辆特斯拉Model S高速行驶时天窗脱落，直接被风吹飞，这个过程刚好被后方行驶车辆的行车记录仪拍下。汽车已经有了百年历史，可行驶途中天窗脱落还是几乎闻所未闻。</p>\n<p>但在特斯拉身上，这却已经不是第一次。</p>\n<p>上个月，美国加利福尼亚州某车主爆料，称其购买了一辆Model Y，提车后开车回家的路上忽然听到风声，半分钟后，整个玻璃车顶就“随风飘扬”。随后，车主将Model Y开到了特斯拉售后维修服务中心，中心表示可能是工厂安装车顶密封条时没有完全封住，或是密封零件存在质量问题，可以免费维修，并提供一定的租车补偿。然而车主选择拒绝，并表示将购买其它品牌车辆。</p>\n<p>这些都不是特斯拉身上的偶发行为，正相反，特斯拉的车辆做工和装配工艺一直饱受诟病，油漆喷涂不均、装配缝隙过大、车门异响、座椅脱落等等，防不胜防。</p>\n<p>11月20日，美国《消费者报告》对26个汽车品牌进行了可靠性调查，特斯拉在其中排名倒数第二。同时，调查还揭露Model S在空气悬架、主计算机和触摸屏控制方面存在问题，Model Y则在车身材料和油漆质量方面存在问题。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f63fc01b34261683312f72b80c12da23\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"2540\"></p>\n<p>“特斯拉制造”的粗糙，已经是不争的事实。</p>\n<p>那么问题来了：<b>为什么特斯拉还能全球热销？</b></p>\n<p>2020年1～9月的电动汽车全球累计销量榜单上，特斯拉Model 3和Model Y位列第一、三名。截至9月，特斯拉今年已经累计销量316820辆，在全球电动汽车总销量中占据了18%的市场份额，紧随其后的是大众汽车，占比13%。</p>\n<p>具体到各个细分市场，特斯拉Model 3在美洲、欧洲、亚洲等多个市场的月度电动车畅销榜中均排名前五，其中在中国、美国、德国、挪威、法国等国家，全部排名前三。</p>\n<p>尤其在特斯拉的大本营美国，即便算上燃油车，美国第三季度汽车总销量排行榜上，特斯拉也能名列第五，而且前面四位都是美国人喜爱的皮卡和SUV。</p>\n<p>近日，中金报告称，特斯拉2021年全球销量有望达到110万辆左右，2022年则有望冲击150万辆水平。</p>\n<p>为什么曾经消费者最重视的汽车安全和质量没有反映在特斯拉的销量上？为什么全球车市走低特斯拉却能逆势上涨？特斯拉后来居上的核心竞争力到底是什么？</p>\n<p>是消费者对新品牌无底线的包容吗？</p>\n<p>并不是。</p>\n<p>特斯拉凭什么？</p>\n<p>以智能手机类比的话，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>为什么能击败<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HAF.UK\">诺基亚</a>，并自此之后始终站在鄙视链顶端？因为手机的外观和供应链都很容易被模仿，但苹果自研的iOS系统和高端生态，却是其他人拿不走的品牌内核。</p>\n<p>特斯拉的竞争力也大抵如此，他们凭借自研的自动驾驶芯片和人工智能算法，并配合有意无意的的品牌运营，建立起了自己的护城河。</p>\n<p><b>具体而言，其一，OTA（远程升级）。</b></p>\n<p>以自研FSD芯片和Autopilot软件为基础的OTA能力，是特斯拉区别于其他厂商的最大特点。某业内分析师告诉华尔街见闻，他认为的特斯拉优势，就是“在造车的所有其它环节都谈不上领先，包括很多人说的三电系统，其它车企现在都做得不错……但OTA方面确实领先2～3年”。</p>\n<p>这里的OTA主要包括两方面，一个是FOTA，即系统固件升级，也就是底盘、续航里程、辅助驾驶、驾驶性能等整车级别的升级；一个是SOTA，即软件升级，包括导航、语音交互、娱乐系统等等。</p>\n<p>其实现方法，就是在产品设计之初提前将软、硬件预设计好，然后把将来用于扩展、升级功能所需的硬件和控制器算力预置进去，后续逐步实现更新升级或功能开放。</p>\n<p>比如一个最经典的例子，就是2018年，美国《消费者报告》发现Model 3的刹车距离比满载的福特F-150还要长出2.1米，存在安全隐患。随后特斯拉承诺会通过OTA尽快解决此问题，然后不到一周，就通过OTA升级将刹车距离缩短了5.8米。</p>\n<p>能做到SOTA的厂商很多，但特斯拉，是汽车行业首个实现FOTA的企业。而且直到现在，从现有汽车版本来看，依然只有特斯拉可以实现动力系统和底盘领域的OTA。</p>\n<p>而OTA对消费者的价值和意义，绝非类似缩短刹车距离这种点线上的这么简单。</p>\n<p>特斯拉的OTA至少能从以下四个方面提高消费者满意度：</p>\n<p><b>一是快速修复软件缺陷。</b></p>\n<p>缩短刹车距离就是典型案例。放在传统车企，类似的硬件和系统问题只有“统一召回”一个解决方式，但在特斯拉这里，就可以直接更新升级包，让厂商和消费者双向省时省力。</p>\n<p><b>二是随时迎合升级需求。</b></p>\n<p>简单来说，就是市场上有了哪些新流行的软件玩法或硬件需求，比如某天电动车的续航里程都达到1000km了，那么只要特斯拉后台实现升级，用户就能第一时间、随时随地更新使用，追上潮流。</p>\n<p><b>三是收集大数据创造更多可能。</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉的数据收集系统始终都是直面用户，车主可以自愿选择是否授权特斯拉收集Autopilot摄像头所拍摄的视频，是否愿意与特斯拉分享车辆的软件数据。依照特斯拉的官方说法，大多数车主都选择“愿意”。</p>\n<p>这些数据和反馈，就是特斯拉未来更新下一版FSD和Autopilot的依据。</p>\n<p>也就是说在这方面，某种程度上特斯拉与授权车主是“互利共赢”的关系。</p>\n<p><b>四是提高用户体验。</b></p>\n<p>显著表现之一就是通过增加特斯拉与车主的互动，提高车主的开车乐趣。</p>\n<p>大家最熟知的想必就是特斯拉每年都会更新的圣诞彩蛋，这已经成了和John lewis家圣诞广告一样每年必刷的圣诞乐趣。比如之前的圣诞节，你会在自己的中控屏上发现一个驯鹿按钮，按下之后汽车就会在屏上“变为”雪橇：打转向灯，会有雪橇铃声；开启辅助驾驶，屏上道路会变成雪道，周边车辆会显示为驯鹿，车主自己则是圣诞老人。</p>\n<p>还比如当年上了几天热搜的“放屁”音效、宠物模式等等，都是此前汽车身上完全没有的新鲜玩法，还有车主“就是被放屁模式圈粉的”。</p>\n<p>这都是特斯拉提高用户粘性的方式，你会觉得开特斯拉前卫、时尚，且永远不乏乐趣。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e61e8eeb8da72efff1d37f952e1617c\" tg-width=\"4013\" tg-height=\"2812\"></p>\n<p>过去几年里，特斯拉平均每年都会提供五次OTA升级。用户会觉得自己时刻走在技术与潮流前沿，不会被放弃、被落下，甚至就像只花今年的钱，却买了十年后的技术。它给用户带来的安全感和新鲜感，连现在的iPhone也无法媲美。</p>\n<p>用句俗语来说就是“软件定义产品”。</p>\n<p>而这些都是传统车企目前难以企及的。</p>\n<p>因为传统车企的生产制造高度依赖供应链，而且供应链极度细分、系统极度复杂，本意上这是多少年来分工合作、效率提升的结果，但给现在带来的困境，就是不同的分工来自不同的一级供应商，有着不同的嵌入式软件和底层代码，厂家无论更新或转投哪项关键技术，都需要所有供应商的同步配合。“所有”和“同步”，难度可想而知。</p>\n<p>举个最简单的例子，我们甚至都不用上升到供应商，就说经销商层面，由于4S店的利润大头一向是维修保养，因为电动车不需要维修保养，所以很多传统车企经销商会明里暗里拒绝销售电动车，比如雪佛兰电动车Bolt就曾遭遇这样的经销商抵制。</p>\n<p>但从0起步、自主研发整个系统、自建全部直销体系的特斯拉完全不存在这些问题。</p>\n<p>简言之，就是<b>特斯拉借助新兴技术，用自己“集成化”的护城河，弯道吞噬了传统厂商“模块化”的护城河。</b></p>\n<p>这是特斯拉最为核心的竞争力，很多新势力后来者也正是从特斯拉身上找到方向、获益匪浅，比如中国新势力里最以“智能”称道的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>，平均一个半月就有1次OTA升级。</p>\n<p><b>其二，品牌力。</b></p>\n<p>与绝大多数传统车企的发展策略不同，特斯拉的品牌发展之路，并非从经济型产品起步，量质齐升后凭借口碑逐步品牌向上，而是正相反，自上而下，先打出高端定位，再去下沉走量。</p>\n<p>2008年，特斯拉推出第一款汽车产品——豪华跑车Roadster，他的思路很清晰，就是要豪华起步，奠定品牌基础。2008～2012年，Roadster一共交付了2450辆，数量不多，但全是社会名流和好莱坞影星，比如莱昂纳多、乔治·克鲁尼和马特·达蒙。</p>\n<p>借助这些品牌附加，特斯拉迅速完成品牌圈粉。</p>\n<p>随后特斯拉上市了Model X和Model S，售价80～100万元上下，进入豪华SUV和豪华轿车市场，向大众市场迈出了第一步。</p>\n<p>为了符合这个价位的“豪华”需求，特斯拉直接在设计和功能上颠覆了所有现有车型，外观酷炫、鸥翼门吸睛、极简风特立独行、科技元素满满、动力爆炸。先成为普罗大众“可望不可即”的豪华品牌，调子基本就定了。</p>\n<p>再往后，特斯拉推出紧凑型车Model 3和Model Y，价格直接切入30万元，目标就是上量，彻底走进大众，然后成为全球新能源汽车第一品牌。所以这两款车走的都是紧凑路线，并且在中国、欧洲均实现了自建工厂，以为“国产”后成本降低， 寻求更大降价空间。</p>\n<p>因为在绝大多数消费者心里，上过百万的特斯拉已经是绝对的豪华品牌，不到30万元就能买台豪华品牌车型，何乐而不为呢？有位车主谈及为什么会买特斯拉时就是这么告诉华尔街见闻的，“电动车嘛，没什么续航焦虑，性能不错，品牌好就可以了，毕竟家里没有一台豪华品牌车型。”</p>\n<p>所以为什么几个月前特斯拉手撕<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>，不是因为不愁卖，更不是只做直营，只是因为拼多多的品牌调性在特斯拉看来“不够格”，他们担心品牌形象被影响。</p>\n<p>特斯拉可以主动降价、自上而下创造销量，但不能和拼多多搭台唱戏、自贬身价。你细品，两者感觉完全不一样。</p>\n<p>这种（豪华）品牌力，就是特斯拉竭力在维护的东西。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d502d589a02eb7f35161e1603baeefa0\" tg-width=\"1472\" tg-height=\"982\"></p>\n<p><b>其三，光环效应。</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉最成功的一点，就是不但自己遥遥领先，还做到了被“前人”追随。</p>\n<p>现在无论是传统车企还是新势力，基本都接受了特斯拉的技术路线，全力转向电动车、人机交互、OTA等等。包括从BBA到丰田大众，说法几乎全部一样，都是要软件战略、OTA革命。可能近五年里，传统车企们走过最长的路，就是特斯拉的老路。</p>\n<p>这些跟进无疑加剧了特斯拉领头羊般的品牌光环效应。</p>\n<p><b>其四，保值率。</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉的二手车保值率，在新能源车里稳坐第一。</p>\n<p>依据中国汽车流通协会发布的2019年保值率排名，特斯拉Model X和Model S分别占据新能源（三年车龄）榜单的前两名，其中特斯拉Model X是保值率唯一超过60%的车型；而进口Model 3，则是新能源（一年车龄）榜单的第一名，保值率高达93.8%。</p>\n<p>这和一位进口版Model 3车主告诉华尔街见闻的消息一样：“我买车非常注重保值率，我特意调研了二手车市场，进口版Model 3的保值率比Model X和Model S还要高，甚至一车难求。”</p>\n<p><b>其五，马斯克。</b></p>\n<p>特斯拉与马斯克之间，是可以画等号的关系。</p>\n<p>而马斯克，是一个连确诊新冠肺炎都能身价暴涨的奇男子。</p>\n<p>提起马斯克你能想到什么？</p>\n<p>酷、离谱、疯子、天才、冒险家、顶流明星、极客之王、震惊人类、火星移民、硅谷钢铁侠、爱迪生+亨利·福特+乔布斯……总之一个比一个朋克、魔幻、不可思议。</p>\n<p>而且更朋克、魔幻、不可思议的是，马斯克总能把自己说过的一个又一个朋克、魔幻、不可思议的“大话”变成现实，上至火箭，下至超级高速隧道，等等。</p>\n<p>所以很多年轻人买特斯拉，买的根本不是汽车本身，而是那枚LOGO，和LOGO背后的“朋克”标签。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ce971ccf81db05a800113b62ab3e5ad\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"854\"></p>\n<p>这就是马斯克的人设和影响力。</p>\n<p>正因如此，日前其在股东大会上表示除了打造电动车，特斯拉也在积极往更多绿色能源领域发展，或将进军家用空调领域，并在2021年开展相关业务，话一出口，虽然具体安排尚无眉目，但业界已经大为震动，日本国内空调龙头企业大金工业的高层甚至直言特斯拉将是“巨大威胁”。</p>\n<p>超前思维、技术加持、品牌运营有方、还有老板赋值……这些都是特斯拉的独特竞争力，而且传统车企几年之内难以企及。</p>\n<p>所以其实“不讲武德”并无大碍，凭借上述护城河，只要自身财务不出状况，特斯拉一定能成为自己想成为的企业。正如TradingAnalysis.com的创始人Todd Gordon所说，“做空特斯拉就像对抗美联储，而后者是不可战胜的。”</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>做空特斯拉就像对抗美联储？它的护城河有多深</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n做空特斯拉就像对抗美联储？它的护城河有多深\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-25 11:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3611494><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：李一帆\n北京时间11月24日，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克发了条推特，称“第五个测试版全自动驾驶系统（FSDBeta版）将在几天后到来，同时改变将是巨大的。”\n\n一时间迎来了“万众”期待和狂欢。\n当天，特斯拉股价收涨逾6%创新高，市值首次突破5000亿美元大关。马斯克个人的净资产当天已升至1279亿美元（约合8422亿元人民币），超越微软公司创始人比尔·盖茨，跃升为全球第二大富豪，仅次于亚马逊...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3611494\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/470c7cb7483c270761f6679ffa0ee057","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3611494","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1104845231","content_text":"作者：李一帆\n北京时间11月24日，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克发了条推特，称“第五个测试版全自动驾驶系统（FSDBeta版）将在几天后到来，同时改变将是巨大的。”\n\n一时间迎来了“万众”期待和狂欢。\n当天，特斯拉股价收涨逾6%创新高，市值首次突破5000亿美元大关。马斯克个人的净资产当天已升至1279亿美元（约合8422亿元人民币），超越微软公司创始人比尔·盖茨，跃升为全球第二大富豪，仅次于亚马逊创始人贝索斯。\n\n狂欢的点是：早在今年8月，马斯克就放话这次FSD更新将会有质的飞跃，因为这次不是普通的系统改进，而是底层代码和架构推倒重写的全新版本。\n10月下旬，特斯拉FSD Beta版已向海外小部分车主推送了试用，目的是收集车主反馈，正式上线前再做最后的改进。\n所以现在的FSD Beta版已经有了相当多的精彩实测。\n比如，车辆在非封闭道路的路口左转前成功识别了交通信号灯，并先“礼让”了对向直行车辆，然后完成左转；自主通过环岛，旁边车道有大货车靠近时，车辆自动折叠收起了外后视镜；一路上成功识别和避开桩筒，流畅的过程就像有人驾驶一样。\n\n相关视频越多，人们的期待值就越被拉高，有外媒判断FSD Beta版发布后，非激光雷达自动驾驶这个战场才是号角真正吹响。\n近几年来，传统车企与新势力此起彼伏、争奇斗艳，可时至今日仍能原地激发大量野生视频，且仅凭野生视频就能抓人眼球的汽车品牌，依然有且只有特斯拉。\n“双面”特斯拉\n很多时候特斯拉的形象就像一架摇摆的天平，网友们期待FSD Beta版的神情似乎完全忘记了几天之前让特斯拉登上热搜的，还是不堪的品控问题。\n几天前的特斯拉有点“不讲武德”。\n11月22日，一辆特斯拉Model S高速行驶时天窗脱落，直接被风吹飞，这个过程刚好被后方行驶车辆的行车记录仪拍下。汽车已经有了百年历史，可行驶途中天窗脱落还是几乎闻所未闻。\n但在特斯拉身上，这却已经不是第一次。\n上个月，美国加利福尼亚州某车主爆料，称其购买了一辆Model Y，提车后开车回家的路上忽然听到风声，半分钟后，整个玻璃车顶就“随风飘扬”。随后，车主将Model Y开到了特斯拉售后维修服务中心，中心表示可能是工厂安装车顶密封条时没有完全封住，或是密封零件存在质量问题，可以免费维修，并提供一定的租车补偿。然而车主选择拒绝，并表示将购买其它品牌车辆。\n这些都不是特斯拉身上的偶发行为，正相反，特斯拉的车辆做工和装配工艺一直饱受诟病，油漆喷涂不均、装配缝隙过大、车门异响、座椅脱落等等，防不胜防。\n11月20日，美国《消费者报告》对26个汽车品牌进行了可靠性调查，特斯拉在其中排名倒数第二。同时，调查还揭露Model S在空气悬架、主计算机和触摸屏控制方面存在问题，Model Y则在车身材料和油漆质量方面存在问题。\n\n“特斯拉制造”的粗糙，已经是不争的事实。\n那么问题来了：为什么特斯拉还能全球热销？\n2020年1～9月的电动汽车全球累计销量榜单上，特斯拉Model 3和Model Y位列第一、三名。截至9月，特斯拉今年已经累计销量316820辆，在全球电动汽车总销量中占据了18%的市场份额，紧随其后的是大众汽车，占比13%。\n具体到各个细分市场，特斯拉Model 3在美洲、欧洲、亚洲等多个市场的月度电动车畅销榜中均排名前五，其中在中国、美国、德国、挪威、法国等国家，全部排名前三。\n尤其在特斯拉的大本营美国，即便算上燃油车，美国第三季度汽车总销量排行榜上，特斯拉也能名列第五，而且前面四位都是美国人喜爱的皮卡和SUV。\n近日，中金报告称，特斯拉2021年全球销量有望达到110万辆左右，2022年则有望冲击150万辆水平。\n为什么曾经消费者最重视的汽车安全和质量没有反映在特斯拉的销量上？为什么全球车市走低特斯拉却能逆势上涨？特斯拉后来居上的核心竞争力到底是什么？\n是消费者对新品牌无底线的包容吗？\n并不是。\n特斯拉凭什么？\n以智能手机类比的话，苹果为什么能击败诺基亚，并自此之后始终站在鄙视链顶端？因为手机的外观和供应链都很容易被模仿，但苹果自研的iOS系统和高端生态，却是其他人拿不走的品牌内核。\n特斯拉的竞争力也大抵如此，他们凭借自研的自动驾驶芯片和人工智能算法，并配合有意无意的的品牌运营，建立起了自己的护城河。\n具体而言，其一，OTA（远程升级）。\n以自研FSD芯片和Autopilot软件为基础的OTA能力，是特斯拉区别于其他厂商的最大特点。某业内分析师告诉华尔街见闻，他认为的特斯拉优势，就是“在造车的所有其它环节都谈不上领先，包括很多人说的三电系统，其它车企现在都做得不错……但OTA方面确实领先2～3年”。\n这里的OTA主要包括两方面，一个是FOTA，即系统固件升级，也就是底盘、续航里程、辅助驾驶、驾驶性能等整车级别的升级；一个是SOTA，即软件升级，包括导航、语音交互、娱乐系统等等。\n其实现方法，就是在产品设计之初提前将软、硬件预设计好，然后把将来用于扩展、升级功能所需的硬件和控制器算力预置进去，后续逐步实现更新升级或功能开放。\n比如一个最经典的例子，就是2018年，美国《消费者报告》发现Model 3的刹车距离比满载的福特F-150还要长出2.1米，存在安全隐患。随后特斯拉承诺会通过OTA尽快解决此问题，然后不到一周，就通过OTA升级将刹车距离缩短了5.8米。\n能做到SOTA的厂商很多，但特斯拉，是汽车行业首个实现FOTA的企业。而且直到现在，从现有汽车版本来看，依然只有特斯拉可以实现动力系统和底盘领域的OTA。\n而OTA对消费者的价值和意义，绝非类似缩短刹车距离这种点线上的这么简单。\n特斯拉的OTA至少能从以下四个方面提高消费者满意度：\n一是快速修复软件缺陷。\n缩短刹车距离就是典型案例。放在传统车企，类似的硬件和系统问题只有“统一召回”一个解决方式，但在特斯拉这里，就可以直接更新升级包，让厂商和消费者双向省时省力。\n二是随时迎合升级需求。\n简单来说，就是市场上有了哪些新流行的软件玩法或硬件需求，比如某天电动车的续航里程都达到1000km了，那么只要特斯拉后台实现升级，用户就能第一时间、随时随地更新使用，追上潮流。\n三是收集大数据创造更多可能。\n特斯拉的数据收集系统始终都是直面用户，车主可以自愿选择是否授权特斯拉收集Autopilot摄像头所拍摄的视频，是否愿意与特斯拉分享车辆的软件数据。依照特斯拉的官方说法，大多数车主都选择“愿意”。\n这些数据和反馈，就是特斯拉未来更新下一版FSD和Autopilot的依据。\n也就是说在这方面，某种程度上特斯拉与授权车主是“互利共赢”的关系。\n四是提高用户体验。\n显著表现之一就是通过增加特斯拉与车主的互动，提高车主的开车乐趣。\n大家最熟知的想必就是特斯拉每年都会更新的圣诞彩蛋，这已经成了和John lewis家圣诞广告一样每年必刷的圣诞乐趣。比如之前的圣诞节，你会在自己的中控屏上发现一个驯鹿按钮，按下之后汽车就会在屏上“变为”雪橇：打转向灯，会有雪橇铃声；开启辅助驾驶，屏上道路会变成雪道，周边车辆会显示为驯鹿，车主自己则是圣诞老人。\n还比如当年上了几天热搜的“放屁”音效、宠物模式等等，都是此前汽车身上完全没有的新鲜玩法，还有车主“就是被放屁模式圈粉的”。\n这都是特斯拉提高用户粘性的方式，你会觉得开特斯拉前卫、时尚，且永远不乏乐趣。\n\n过去几年里，特斯拉平均每年都会提供五次OTA升级。用户会觉得自己时刻走在技术与潮流前沿，不会被放弃、被落下，甚至就像只花今年的钱，却买了十年后的技术。它给用户带来的安全感和新鲜感，连现在的iPhone也无法媲美。\n用句俗语来说就是“软件定义产品”。\n而这些都是传统车企目前难以企及的。\n因为传统车企的生产制造高度依赖供应链，而且供应链极度细分、系统极度复杂，本意上这是多少年来分工合作、效率提升的结果，但给现在带来的困境，就是不同的分工来自不同的一级供应商，有着不同的嵌入式软件和底层代码，厂家无论更新或转投哪项关键技术，都需要所有供应商的同步配合。“所有”和“同步”，难度可想而知。\n举个最简单的例子，我们甚至都不用上升到供应商，就说经销商层面，由于4S店的利润大头一向是维修保养，因为电动车不需要维修保养，所以很多传统车企经销商会明里暗里拒绝销售电动车，比如雪佛兰电动车Bolt就曾遭遇这样的经销商抵制。\n但从0起步、自主研发整个系统、自建全部直销体系的特斯拉完全不存在这些问题。\n简言之，就是特斯拉借助新兴技术，用自己“集成化”的护城河，弯道吞噬了传统厂商“模块化”的护城河。\n这是特斯拉最为核心的竞争力，很多新势力后来者也正是从特斯拉身上找到方向、获益匪浅，比如中国新势力里最以“智能”称道的小鹏汽车，平均一个半月就有1次OTA升级。\n其二，品牌力。\n与绝大多数传统车企的发展策略不同，特斯拉的品牌发展之路，并非从经济型产品起步，量质齐升后凭借口碑逐步品牌向上，而是正相反，自上而下，先打出高端定位，再去下沉走量。\n2008年，特斯拉推出第一款汽车产品——豪华跑车Roadster，他的思路很清晰，就是要豪华起步，奠定品牌基础。2008～2012年，Roadster一共交付了2450辆，数量不多，但全是社会名流和好莱坞影星，比如莱昂纳多、乔治·克鲁尼和马特·达蒙。\n借助这些品牌附加，特斯拉迅速完成品牌圈粉。\n随后特斯拉上市了Model X和Model S，售价80～100万元上下，进入豪华SUV和豪华轿车市场，向大众市场迈出了第一步。\n为了符合这个价位的“豪华”需求，特斯拉直接在设计和功能上颠覆了所有现有车型，外观酷炫、鸥翼门吸睛、极简风特立独行、科技元素满满、动力爆炸。先成为普罗大众“可望不可即”的豪华品牌，调子基本就定了。\n再往后，特斯拉推出紧凑型车Model 3和Model Y，价格直接切入30万元，目标就是上量，彻底走进大众，然后成为全球新能源汽车第一品牌。所以这两款车走的都是紧凑路线，并且在中国、欧洲均实现了自建工厂，以为“国产”后成本降低， 寻求更大降价空间。\n因为在绝大多数消费者心里，上过百万的特斯拉已经是绝对的豪华品牌，不到30万元就能买台豪华品牌车型，何乐而不为呢？有位车主谈及为什么会买特斯拉时就是这么告诉华尔街见闻的，“电动车嘛，没什么续航焦虑，性能不错，品牌好就可以了，毕竟家里没有一台豪华品牌车型。”\n所以为什么几个月前特斯拉手撕拼多多，不是因为不愁卖，更不是只做直营，只是因为拼多多的品牌调性在特斯拉看来“不够格”，他们担心品牌形象被影响。\n特斯拉可以主动降价、自上而下创造销量，但不能和拼多多搭台唱戏、自贬身价。你细品，两者感觉完全不一样。\n这种（豪华）品牌力，就是特斯拉竭力在维护的东西。\n\n其三，光环效应。\n特斯拉最成功的一点，就是不但自己遥遥领先，还做到了被“前人”追随。\n现在无论是传统车企还是新势力，基本都接受了特斯拉的技术路线，全力转向电动车、人机交互、OTA等等。包括从BBA到丰田大众，说法几乎全部一样，都是要软件战略、OTA革命。可能近五年里，传统车企们走过最长的路，就是特斯拉的老路。\n这些跟进无疑加剧了特斯拉领头羊般的品牌光环效应。\n其四，保值率。\n特斯拉的二手车保值率，在新能源车里稳坐第一。\n依据中国汽车流通协会发布的2019年保值率排名，特斯拉Model X和Model S分别占据新能源（三年车龄）榜单的前两名，其中特斯拉Model X是保值率唯一超过60%的车型；而进口Model 3，则是新能源（一年车龄）榜单的第一名，保值率高达93.8%。\n这和一位进口版Model 3车主告诉华尔街见闻的消息一样：“我买车非常注重保值率，我特意调研了二手车市场，进口版Model 3的保值率比Model X和Model S还要高，甚至一车难求。”\n其五，马斯克。\n特斯拉与马斯克之间，是可以画等号的关系。\n而马斯克，是一个连确诊新冠肺炎都能身价暴涨的奇男子。\n提起马斯克你能想到什么？\n酷、离谱、疯子、天才、冒险家、顶流明星、极客之王、震惊人类、火星移民、硅谷钢铁侠、爱迪生+亨利·福特+乔布斯……总之一个比一个朋克、魔幻、不可思议。\n而且更朋克、魔幻、不可思议的是，马斯克总能把自己说过的一个又一个朋克、魔幻、不可思议的“大话”变成现实，上至火箭，下至超级高速隧道，等等。\n所以很多年轻人买特斯拉，买的根本不是汽车本身，而是那枚LOGO，和LOGO背后的“朋克”标签。\n\n这就是马斯克的人设和影响力。\n正因如此，日前其在股东大会上表示除了打造电动车，特斯拉也在积极往更多绿色能源领域发展，或将进军家用空调领域，并在2021年开展相关业务，话一出口，虽然具体安排尚无眉目，但业界已经大为震动，日本国内空调龙头企业大金工业的高层甚至直言特斯拉将是“巨大威胁”。\n超前思维、技术加持、品牌运营有方、还有老板赋值……这些都是特斯拉的独特竞争力，而且传统车企几年之内难以企及。\n所以其实“不讲武德”并无大碍，凭借上述护城河，只要自身财务不出状况，特斯拉一定能成为自己想成为的企业。正如TradingAnalysis.com的创始人Todd 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