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T111240

T111240

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IP属地：广东

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05-21

国人的公司真的很多坑

抱歉，原内容已删除

12-10

真是个笑话

对英伟达出手，真正的狠招还在后头

04-04

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 看好ai 加云，与国际商业加菜鸟物流，只要淘天稳住就好

2023-07-18

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$

10-11

打他脸

富国银行第四季度交易策略，建议做空特斯拉

09-22

难道高通的高管不清楚这些人人看得到的问题？我们想了解的是看不到的那些。例如制造板块是否会分离出去独立，芯片业务独立，各部分分离后的市场技术竞争力与估值，美国的政策方向。

郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难

09-21

英特尔的代工业务估值应该好几百亿美元吧？

高通：拟全盘收购英特尔！

09-13

拼多多真的是一群混蛋，搞坏了原有的市场环境，赔钱害大家

BUZZ-特姆母公司 PDD 因美国限制中国低价值货物入境而下跌

06-28

拿几千工资的人，评价万亿的企业与千亿的企业家

抱歉，原内容已删除

05-30

T86问题就这一没底线的公司搞出来的，一人错整个行业买单

拼多多在海外杀疯了

05-21

都不打个正眼看

字节大模型大降价，百度、阿里能否抗住？

05-17

$(09988)$ 买股不就是买预期么？阿里2025财年指引明确了重回2位数增长。国际商业半托管真的能拉动大增长。

05-08

SB，水军

04-22

要看专利质量啊

抱歉，原内容已删除

04-12

$(09988)$ AI 加云，带动新业务发展，淘宝天猫在品牌心智这一板是很有护城河的，也是利润的来源。C店比低价，天猫能撑起利润。

03-17

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$

03-02

这样看法，那temu 和希音这些岂不是死的更快？

抱歉，原内容已删除

02-08

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$

01-28

作者，淘宝亚马逊很差吗？说了这么多年，也不见国内的汽车芯片产业起来，就一吹牛，博眼球，此庸人也

抱歉，原内容已删除

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14:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122650552","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"天风国际知名苹果分析师郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的AI PC晶片业务有帮助。但从微软对WoA的承诺 (其最新Surface机型都采用高通处理器/ARM架构)，高通在PC市场成长只是早晚问题。此外，单从英特尔市值约930亿美元来看，此并购案对高通的财务压力极大，且对获利能力会有立即性的负面影响，净利率可能从现在的20%+降到个位数甚至亏损 (晶圆代工业务是最大累赘)。加之考虑到各国之后的反垄断调查，此并购案很难在短期内完成。如此看来，高通应该没有强烈动机去并购英特尔才是，此并购案若发生，对高通可说是灾难一场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>天风国际分析师郭明錤今日在社交平台 X 就高通寻求收购英特尔的传言发表观点称：“我的行业调查还表明，高通目前正在与英特尔进行收购谈判。<strong>然而，如果这次收购发生，对高通来说可能是一场灾难</strong>。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60c7b389b04d4c5b5f848eb1dcdd40f\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"512\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的 AI PC 芯片业务有帮助，但从微软对 WoA 的承诺（其最新 Surface 机型都采用高通处理器 / ARM 架构），<strong>高通在 PC 市场的增长只是早晚问题</strong>。虽然收购英特尔可以迅速增加高通的个人电脑市场份额，但它的成本也很高。即使没有收购，高通也能在 AI PC 市场实现增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤还称：</p><blockquote><p>为了在即将到来的 AI 时代蓬勃发展，高通的最佳策略是从 AI 智能手机芯片中快速产生现金流，同时扩大其在该领域的主导地位。该公司还应推动 AI PC 芯片的发展，建立涵盖智能手机和个人电脑的强大的设备端 AI 生态系统。此外，高通还需要通过战略投资和收购来迅速增强其服务器 AI 芯片能力。</p><p><strong>英特尔在传统服务器市场的强势地位对高通的吸引力有限</strong>。AI 服务器是服务器市场的未来之星，这也是英特尔目前的弱项。</p><p>高通拥有约 130 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和有价证券，市值约 1900 亿美元。即使忽略收购溢价、相关成本、债务假设、后续管理费用等，<strong>仅英特尔约 930 亿美元的市值就足以给高通带来巨大的财务压力</strong>。这将立即对盈利能力产生负面影响，可能使净利润率从目前的 20% 以上降至个位数甚至亏损（其中代工业务是最严重的拖累）。</p><p>高通最新季度资本支出约为 3.9 亿美元。使用英特尔收购专用资金（预计需要超过 1000 亿美元）来增加资本支出以追求 AI PC 和 AI 服务器的增长，风险会更小，管理效率也会更高。</p><p>考虑到在各国可能面临的反垄断调查，<strong>此次收购很难在短期内完成</strong>。即使高通为降低并购带来的财务与管理压力而出售部分英特尔资产，这也非一时三刻可以拍板定案。而上述不确定性在此并购进行中时，很不利于高通的股价交易情绪。</p><p>出于这些考虑，高通收购英特尔的动机并不强烈。如果这次收购成功，对高通来说可能是灾难性的。据我的调查和了解，高通在内部讨论中也表达了对收购英特尔的保守态度。这证实了我听到的一个谣言：<strong>高通是因为某“外力不可抗拒因素”的压力，才去谨慎并被动评估并购英特尔的可行性</strong>。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤认为，目前高通最关键的重点应该是建立 AI 芯片的竞争力：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">1、设备端 AI 智能手机芯片：高通在该市场拥有明显优势，是苹果最大的竞争对手。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">2、设备端 AI PC 芯片：随着 Windows on ARM（WoA）的逐步优化，高通的优势将更加明显。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">3、AI 服务器芯片：高通的弱项。</p></li></ul><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-22 14:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>天风国际分析师郭明錤今日在社交平台 X 就高通寻求收购英特尔的传言发表观点称：“我的行业调查还表明，高通目前正在与英特尔进行收购谈判。<strong>然而，如果这次收购发生，对高通来说可能是一场灾难</strong>。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60c7b389b04d4c5b5f848eb1dcdd40f\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"512\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的 AI PC 芯片业务有帮助，但从微软对 WoA 的承诺（其最新 Surface 机型都采用高通处理器 / ARM 架构），<strong>高通在 PC 市场的增长只是早晚问题</strong>。虽然收购英特尔可以迅速增加高通的个人电脑市场份额，但它的成本也很高。即使没有收购，高通也能在 AI PC 市场实现增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤还称：</p><blockquote><p>为了在即将到来的 AI 时代蓬勃发展，高通的最佳策略是从 AI 智能手机芯片中快速产生现金流，同时扩大其在该领域的主导地位。该公司还应推动 AI PC 芯片的发展，建立涵盖智能手机和个人电脑的强大的设备端 AI 生态系统。此外，高通还需要通过战略投资和收购来迅速增强其服务器 AI 芯片能力。</p><p><strong>英特尔在传统服务器市场的强势地位对高通的吸引力有限</strong>。AI 服务器是服务器市场的未来之星，这也是英特尔目前的弱项。</p><p>高通拥有约 130 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和有价证券，市值约 1900 亿美元。即使忽略收购溢价、相关成本、债务假设、后续管理费用等，<strong>仅英特尔约 930 亿美元的市值就足以给高通带来巨大的财务压力</strong>。这将立即对盈利能力产生负面影响，可能使净利润率从目前的 20% 以上降至个位数甚至亏损（其中代工业务是最严重的拖累）。</p><p>高通最新季度资本支出约为 3.9 亿美元。使用英特尔收购专用资金（预计需要超过 1000 亿美元）来增加资本支出以追求 AI PC 和 AI 服务器的增长，风险会更小，管理效率也会更高。</p><p>考虑到在各国可能面临的反垄断调查，<strong>此次收购很难在短期内完成</strong>。即使高通为降低并购带来的财务与管理压力而出售部分英特尔资产，这也非一时三刻可以拍板定案。而上述不确定性在此并购进行中时，很不利于高通的股价交易情绪。</p><p>出于这些考虑，高通收购英特尔的动机并不强烈。如果这次收购成功，对高通来说可能是灾难性的。据我的调查和了解，高通在内部讨论中也表达了对收购英特尔的保守态度。这证实了我听到的一个谣言：<strong>高通是因为某“外力不可抗拒因素”的压力，才去谨慎并被动评估并购英特尔的可行性</strong>。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤认为，目前高通最关键的重点应该是建立 AI 芯片的竞争力：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">1、设备端 AI 智能手机芯片：高通在该市场拥有明显优势，是苹果最大的竞争对手。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">2、设备端 AI PC 芯片：随着 Windows on ARM（WoA）的逐步优化，高通的优势将更加明显。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">3、AI 服务器芯片：高通的弱项。</p></li></ul><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/994ce736e6a1ce2b6fe2a8e8040fed18","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122650552","content_text":"天风国际分析师郭明錤今日在社交平台 X 就高通寻求收购英特尔的传言发表观点称：“我的行业调查还表明，高通目前正在与英特尔进行收购谈判。然而，如果这次收购发生，对高通来说可能是一场灾难。”郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的 AI PC 芯片业务有帮助，但从微软对 WoA 的承诺（其最新 Surface 机型都采用高通处理器 / ARM 架构），高通在 PC 市场的增长只是早晚问题。虽然收购英特尔可以迅速增加高通的个人电脑市场份额，但它的成本也很高。即使没有收购，高通也能在 AI PC 市场实现增长。郭明錤还称：为了在即将到来的 AI 时代蓬勃发展，高通的最佳策略是从 AI 智能手机芯片中快速产生现金流，同时扩大其在该领域的主导地位。该公司还应推动 AI PC 芯片的发展，建立涵盖智能手机和个人电脑的强大的设备端 AI 生态系统。此外，高通还需要通过战略投资和收购来迅速增强其服务器 AI 芯片能力。英特尔在传统服务器市场的强势地位对高通的吸引力有限。AI 服务器是服务器市场的未来之星，这也是英特尔目前的弱项。高通拥有约 130 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和有价证券，市值约 1900 亿美元。即使忽略收购溢价、相关成本、债务假设、后续管理费用等，仅英特尔约 930 亿美元的市值就足以给高通带来巨大的财务压力。这将立即对盈利能力产生负面影响，可能使净利润率从目前的 20% 以上降至个位数甚至亏损（其中代工业务是最严重的拖累）。高通最新季度资本支出约为 3.9 亿美元。使用英特尔收购专用资金（预计需要超过 1000 亿美元）来增加资本支出以追求 AI PC 和 AI 服务器的增长，风险会更小，管理效率也会更高。考虑到在各国可能面临的反垄断调查，此次收购很难在短期内完成。即使高通为降低并购带来的财务与管理压力而出售部分英特尔资产，这也非一时三刻可以拍板定案。而上述不确定性在此并购进行中时，很不利于高通的股价交易情绪。出于这些考虑，高通收购英特尔的动机并不强烈。如果这次收购成功，对高通来说可能是灾难性的。据我的调查和了解，高通在内部讨论中也表达了对收购英特尔的保守态度。这证实了我听到的一个谣言：高通是因为某“外力不可抗拒因素”的压力，才去谨慎并被动评估并购英特尔的可行性。郭明錤认为，目前高通最关键的重点应该是建立 AI 芯片的竞争力：1、设备端 AI 智能手机芯片：高通在该市场拥有明显优势，是苹果最大的竞争对手。2、设备端 AI PC 芯片：随着 Windows on ARM（WoA）的逐步优化，高通的优势将更加明显。3、AI 服务器芯片：高通的弱项。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351783421374576,"gmtCreate":1726923757932,"gmtModify":1726923759796,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英特尔的代工业务估值应该好几百亿美元吧？","listText":"英特尔的代工业务估值应该好几百亿美元吧？","text":"英特尔的代工业务估值应该好几百亿美元吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351783421374576","repostId":"1173968944","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173968944","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1726886281,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173968944?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-21 10:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高通：拟全盘收购英特尔！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173968944","media":"芯榜","summary":"高通拟收购英特尔要点：1、收购提议：高通向英特尔发出收购要约。高通的收购要约，无疑为英特尔提供了一个可能的出路。这或许是高通考虑收购英特尔的一个重要因素，通过此次收购，高通有望进一步完善自身的产业链。高通意图全盘收购英特尔近年来的困境已是不争的事实。因此，高通收购英特尔这一交易能否最终达成，仍充满变数。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b531bba7dbbf179b123ea08be7b7310\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"521\"/></p><p><strong>刚刚，全球芯片传出重磅消息：</strong></p><p>据《华尔街日报》援引知情人士透露，高通已向芯片巨头英特尔发出收购要约。有网友甚至给出建议，<strong>收购后，学习博通，改名为英特尔（高级黑？）</strong>。</p><blockquote><p><strong>高通拟收购英特尔要点：</strong></p><p><strong>1、收购提议</strong>：高通向英特尔发出收购要约。</p><p><strong>2、市场反应</strong>：英特尔股价尾盘大涨，高通股价一度下跌4%。</p><p><strong>3、英特尔状况</strong>：面临严重危机，股价大跌，市值缩水。</p><p><strong>4、交易挑战</strong>：可能面临反垄断审查，历史上有类似交易被阻。</p><p><strong>5、业务模式</strong>：高通依赖代工，英特尔则涉及多个领域。</p><p><strong>6、战略调整</strong>：英特尔计划投资代工业务，考虑外部投资。</p><p><strong>7、市场竞争</strong>：英特尔在AI市场落后于Nvidia。</p><p><strong>8、双方回应</strong>：均拒绝评论。</p><p><strong>9、潜在影响</strong>：若成功，将是巨大科技并购案，或改变市场格局。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59b31c071e6860a20d77b02b341654fd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"961\"/></p><p><strong>英特尔突传“卖身”</strong></p><p><strong>曾经的世界级霸主将何去何从</strong></p><p>英特尔，这家拥有五十年历史的芯片制造商，正面临前所未有的危机。周五早盘，其市值约为870亿美元，但近年来业绩不佳，股价大幅下跌。高通的收购要约，无疑为英特尔提供了一个可能的出路。然而，交易并非易事。即便英特尔愿意接受要约，如此大规模的并购也必将受到严格的反垄断审查。</p><p>高通作为智能手机芯片的主要供应商，其实力与影响力不容小觑。然而，与英特尔相比，高通在某些方面仍有不足。例如，高通并不自主生产芯片，而是依赖外部代工厂。这或许是高通考虑收购英特尔的一个重要因素，通过此次收购，高通有望进一步完善自身的产业链。</p><p>此外，这笔交易还有可能被视为加强特定地区芯片竞争优势的机会。在全球芯片产业格局日趋复杂的背景下，这样的并购无疑将引发更多关注和讨论。</p><p><strong>高通意图全盘收购</strong></p><p>英特尔近年来的困境已是不争的事实。从令人失望的财报到股价的大幅下跌，再到错过人工智能热潮，这家曾经的芯片巨头似乎已风光不再。与此同时，竞争对手如Nvidia等却抓住了市场机遇，快速崛起。</p><p>在这样的背景下，高通的收购要约显得尤为引人注目。对于英特尔而言，这笔交易或许能为其带来一线生机；对于高通而言，这则是一次千载难逢的扩张机会。然而，交易的最终达成仍面临诸多不确定性。除了反垄断审查外，双方还需就交易细节进行深入谈判，并争取各自股东的支持。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21f839a90fdc2cd0b233b7c0e61e23c3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p><p>近年来大型科技并购案屡遭挫折。如博通收购高通、英伟达收购Arm等交易均因各种原因未能成功。因此，高通收购英特尔这一交易能否最终达成，仍充满变数。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1685238158152","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高通：拟全盘收购英特尔！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高通：拟全盘收购英特尔！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-21 10:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g-MEP1vk1XmxfRT-eSVUwA><strong>芯榜</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>刚刚，全球芯片传出重磅消息：据《华尔街日报》援引知情人士透露，高通已向芯片巨头英特尔发出收购要约。有网友甚至给出建议，收购后，学习博通，改名为英特尔（高级黑？）。高通拟收购英特尔要点：1、收购提议：高通向英特尔发出收购要约。2、市场反应：英特尔股价尾盘大涨，高通股价一度下跌4%。3、英特尔状况：面临严重危机，股价大跌，市值缩水。4、交易挑战：可能面临反垄断审查，历史上有类似交易被阻。5、业务模式：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g-MEP1vk1XmxfRT-eSVUwA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b531bba7dbbf179b123ea08be7b7310","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g-MEP1vk1XmxfRT-eSVUwA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173968944","content_text":"刚刚，全球芯片传出重磅消息：据《华尔街日报》援引知情人士透露，高通已向芯片巨头英特尔发出收购要约。有网友甚至给出建议，收购后，学习博通，改名为英特尔（高级黑？）。高通拟收购英特尔要点：1、收购提议：高通向英特尔发出收购要约。2、市场反应：英特尔股价尾盘大涨，高通股价一度下跌4%。3、英特尔状况：面临严重危机，股价大跌，市值缩水。4、交易挑战：可能面临反垄断审查，历史上有类似交易被阻。5、业务模式：高通依赖代工，英特尔则涉及多个领域。6、战略调整：英特尔计划投资代工业务，考虑外部投资。7、市场竞争：英特尔在AI市场落后于Nvidia。8、双方回应：均拒绝评论。9、潜在影响：若成功，将是巨大科技并购案，或改变市场格局。英特尔突传“卖身”曾经的世界级霸主将何去何从英特尔，这家拥有五十年历史的芯片制造商，正面临前所未有的危机。周五早盘，其市值约为870亿美元，但近年来业绩不佳，股价大幅下跌。高通的收购要约，无疑为英特尔提供了一个可能的出路。然而，交易并非易事。即便英特尔愿意接受要约，如此大规模的并购也必将受到严格的反垄断审查。高通作为智能手机芯片的主要供应商，其实力与影响力不容小觑。然而，与英特尔相比，高通在某些方面仍有不足。例如，高通并不自主生产芯片，而是依赖外部代工厂。这或许是高通考虑收购英特尔的一个重要因素，通过此次收购，高通有望进一步完善自身的产业链。此外，这笔交易还有可能被视为加强特定地区芯片竞争优势的机会。在全球芯片产业格局日趋复杂的背景下，这样的并购无疑将引发更多关注和讨论。高通意图全盘收购英特尔近年来的困境已是不争的事实。从令人失望的财报到股价的大幅下跌，再到错过人工智能热潮，这家曾经的芯片巨头似乎已风光不再。与此同时，竞争对手如Nvidia等却抓住了市场机遇，快速崛起。在这样的背景下，高通的收购要约显得尤为引人注目。对于英特尔而言，这笔交易或许能为其带来一线生机；对于高通而言，这则是一次千载难逢的扩张机会。然而，交易的最终达成仍面临诸多不确定性。除了反垄断审查外，双方还需就交易细节进行深入谈判，并争取各自股东的支持。近年来大型科技并购案屡遭挫折。如博通收购高通、英伟达收购Arm等交易均因各种原因未能成功。因此，高通收购英特尔这一交易能否最终达成，仍充满变数。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349003235004600,"gmtCreate":1726235542586,"gmtModify":1726237010090,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"拼多多真的是一群混蛋，搞坏了原有的市场环境，赔钱害大家","listText":"拼多多真的是一群混蛋，搞坏了原有的市场环境，赔钱害大家","text":"拼多多真的是一群混蛋，搞坏了原有的市场环境，赔钱害大家","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349003235004600","repostId":"2467278317","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2467278317","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1726231715,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2467278317?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"BUZZ-特姆母公司 PDD 因美国限制中国低价值货物入境而下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467278317","media":"Reuters","summary":"((自动化翻译由路透提供，请见免责声明 ))    9月13日 - ** 特姆母公司PDD Holdings  股价盘前下跌逾6%，至91.40美元** 美国政府将限制 (link) 800美元 \"微量 \"门槛下的低价值货物入境，这已被Shein和Temu等中国电子商务公司利用** Shein和Temu从中国直接向美国消费者发货，成为该条款的最大受益者** 亚马逊和沃尔玛等美国零售商也利用这一规定** 截至周四收盘，PDD 股价累计下跌超过 33","content":"<html><body><p>((自动化翻译由路透提供，请见免责声明 ))</p><p>    9月13日 - ** 特姆母公司PDD Holdings  股价盘前下跌逾6%，至91.40美元</p><p>** 美国政府将限制 (link) 800美元 \"微量 \"门槛下的低价值货物入境，这已被Shein和Temu等中国电子商务公司利用</p><p>** 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  9月13日 - ** 特姆母公司PDD Holdings  股价盘前下跌逾6%，至91.40美元</p><p>** 美国政府将限制 (link) 800美元 \"微量 \"门槛下的低价值货物入境，这已被Shein和Temu等中国电子商务公司利用</p><p>** Shein和Temu从中国直接向美国消费者发货，成为该条款的最大受益者</p><p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>等美国零售商也利用这一规定</p><p>** 截至周四收盘，PDD 股价累计下跌超过 33  </p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823397103.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE ASIA EX-JAPAN EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823397285.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE ASIA EX-JAPAN EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0329678170.USD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","PDD":"拼多多","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0502904849.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  CHINA INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0329678337.USD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA 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08:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"时代造就淘宝，淘宝败给时代","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2446378482","media":"刘旷","summary":"然而，淘宝在下沉市场确实失利了，但要将淘宝落寞的核心原因归因于下沉市场的失败，同样也是站不住脚的。今天的淘宝，在内容电商的投资和布局依然不弱于任何一家电商平台，淘宝并没有在内容电商败给其他电商平台。同样，也只有时代的淘宝，没有淘宝的时代。所以，今天淘宝的落寞，只是败给了时代。","content":"<html><body><div><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec60f2c377846a3945cee99c97ed44f\"/></p><p><span>今天的淘宝，看山不是山，看水不是水，境遇已大不相同。</span></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>报告显示，淘宝天猫的市场份额从2019年的66%，下降至2022年的44%左右，四年降幅1/3。2024年淘宝的市场份额还剩多少，很难说清楚，但是这两年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>和抖音的势头是越来越猛了，还有视频号、小红书、快手等一众内容平台在抢夺电商这块蛋糕。</span></p><p><span><strong>有人将淘宝的落寞归因于管理者的失策</strong></span></p><p><span>张勇毫无疑问成为了最大的买单者，毕竟事情没做好，最终总是需要人来承担。但是真的只是张勇的管理失策吗？如果要论管理者失策，难道马云没有责任？蔡崇信没有责任？</span></p><p><span>成者王侯败者寇，这话确实不假，但是要把事情的责任全部都推到人的身上，并不完全合乎情理，更何况张勇并非无能之辈。</span></p><p><span>其一，张勇能做到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>整个集团董事长兼CEO的位置，并非是靠运气得来的，而是靠着自己一路厮杀所展现出来的能力。他还是“双十一”这个伟大狂欢购物节的缔造者，帮助阿里巴巴成功的实现了从PC端到移动互联网的变迁。</span></p><p><span>其二，马云识人的本事，放眼整个互联网，有几人能说自己比马云厉害？既然当初决定把整个阿里巴巴集团都交给张勇来打理，马云也是经过足够的深思熟虑后才做的决定，同时也说明了马云对张勇能力的充分认可！</span></p><p><span>既然张勇并非无能之辈，又是有功之臣，那把淘宝的落寞归因于张勇的管理失策，又是否妥当呢？</span></p><p><span>很明显，不妥当。</span></p><p><span><strong>有人将淘宝的落寞归因于下沉市场的失败</strong></span></p><p><span>一直主打下沉市场的拼多多，这几年发展确实很猛，尤其是今天拼多多的市值已经超越阿里巴巴，这让很多人都说淘宝因为下沉市场的失利，所以输给了拼多多。</span></p><p><span>事实上并非如此。</span></p><p><span>淘宝很早就有布局下沉市场，甚至早于拼多多，10年前淘宝村也曾风靡一时。2014 年，阿里提出“千县万村”计划，要在3-5年间投资100亿元、建立1000个县级运营中心和10万个村级服务站。</span></p><p><span>可以说，淘宝对于下沉市场的重视和投入不弱于任何一个电商平台，包括拼多多和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>。</span></p><p><span>当初的淘宝，不论是下沉市场和农村市场的商家还是用户规模，淘宝也是强于其他任何一个电商平台。</span></p><p><span>然而，淘宝在下沉市场确实失利了，但要将淘宝落寞的核心原因归因于下沉市场的失败，同样也是站不住脚的。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c448de5e6b646d6b1acd2c08257ac03\"/></p><p><span><strong>有人将淘宝的落寞归因于内容电商的失落</strong></span></p><p><span>抖音、快手、小红书借助内容电商崛起，确实对整个电商格局产生了非常大的影响，尤其是今天的抖音，已经成长为中国电商的第四极。</span></p><p><span>事实上，淘宝在短视频、直播等内容电商的布局和投入，同样不弱于任何一家电商平台和任何一家短视频直播平台。</span></p><p><span>早在2016年4月，时任阿里CEO的张勇就将社区化、内容化定为淘宝未来的方向。之后，淘宝上线了直播频道、淘宝头条、问大家和淘宝社区等一些列内容专区。与此同时，淘宝也开始全面打造短视频，开始打造自己的短视频APP。</span></p><p><span>在直播方面的布局，淘宝就更早了。而最早在电商直播做出成果的当属淘宝直播了，薇娅、李佳琦等一众头部主播都诞生于淘宝直播。此后，才有了抖音电商直播、快手电商直播对淘宝直播的效仿。</span></p><p><span>今天的淘宝，在内容电商的投资和布局依然不弱于任何一家电商平台，淘宝并没有在内容电商败给其他电商平台。甚至可以这么说，淘宝电商直播比除抖音直播之外的所有电商直播都要做得好。</span></p><p><span><strong>淘宝，只是败给了时代</strong></span></p><p><span>正如那句名言：只有时代的马云，没有马云的时代。</span></p><p><strong><span>同样，也只有时代的淘宝，没有淘宝的时代。</span></strong></p><p><span>淘宝当初的崛起，恰恰是时代造就的产物，当初国内电商还是一片空白，淘宝凭借着对中国市场和商家更为熟悉，战胜了当时全球最大的电商网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>。</span></p><p><span>下沉市场的失利，只是因为淘宝不小心赶上了消费降级，拼多多的强势崛起同样也受益于消费降级这个大时代。谁也不曾预料到，今天的消费降级来得如此快，来得如此迅猛。</span></p><p><span>张勇当初对于中国经济未来的判断，一直都是消费升级，我相信马云先生当初也是如此判断的，谁也没想到消费降级这个意外来得如此快。</span></p><p><span>抖音、快手等内容电商平台的兴起，同样也是赶上了短视频直播这个风口。疫情三年，让越来越多人开始沉迷于短视频，痴迷于直播。抖音、快手天生因为内容对于用户的吸引，借助足够的用户时长，从而让越来越多用户在平台上逐步养成了消费习惯。</span></p><p><span>但是淘宝、京东、拼多多等电商平台，因为电商的基因，却很难通过培养用户的内容兴趣，再去吸引用户消费。电商平台的基因也注定了，它们的短视频和直播也基本都是围绕着电商。</span></p><p><span>短视频直播这个内容风口，就注定了抖音、快手、视频号的内容电商时代，这是谁也难以阻挡的电商趋势。</span></p><p><strong><span>所以，今天淘宝的落寞，只是败给了时代。至于下一个电商时代，谁能把握？我想谁也给不了答案。</span></strong></p><p><em><span>文/刘旷公众号，ID：liukuang110，配图来自Canva可画</span></em></p></div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>时代造就淘宝，淘宝败给时代</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n时代造就淘宝，淘宝败给时代\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1054650051\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec32a8ed3664db2bd5c9d2fcf3bc685);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">刘旷 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-27 08:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec60f2c377846a3945cee99c97ed44f\"/></p><p><span>今天的淘宝，看山不是山，看水不是水，境遇已大不相同。</span></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>报告显示，淘宝天猫的市场份额从2019年的66%，下降至2022年的44%左右，四年降幅1/3。2024年淘宝的市场份额还剩多少，很难说清楚，但是这两年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>和抖音的势头是越来越猛了，还有视频号、小红书、快手等一众内容平台在抢夺电商这块蛋糕。</span></p><p><span><strong>有人将淘宝的落寞归因于管理者的失策</strong></span></p><p><span>张勇毫无疑问成为了最大的买单者，毕竟事情没做好，最终总是需要人来承担。但是真的只是张勇的管理失策吗？如果要论管理者失策，难道马云没有责任？蔡崇信没有责任？</span></p><p><span>成者王侯败者寇，这话确实不假，但是要把事情的责任全部都推到人的身上，并不完全合乎情理，更何况张勇并非无能之辈。</span></p><p><span>其一，张勇能做到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>整个集团董事长兼CEO的位置，并非是靠运气得来的，而是靠着自己一路厮杀所展现出来的能力。他还是“双十一”这个伟大狂欢购物节的缔造者，帮助阿里巴巴成功的实现了从PC端到移动互联网的变迁。</span></p><p><span>其二，马云识人的本事，放眼整个互联网，有几人能说自己比马云厉害？既然当初决定把整个阿里巴巴集团都交给张勇来打理，马云也是经过足够的深思熟虑后才做的决定，同时也说明了马云对张勇能力的充分认可！</span></p><p><span>既然张勇并非无能之辈，又是有功之臣，那把淘宝的落寞归因于张勇的管理失策，又是否妥当呢？</span></p><p><span>很明显，不妥当。</span></p><p><span><strong>有人将淘宝的落寞归因于下沉市场的失败</strong></span></p><p><span>一直主打下沉市场的拼多多，这几年发展确实很猛，尤其是今天拼多多的市值已经超越阿里巴巴，这让很多人都说淘宝因为下沉市场的失利，所以输给了拼多多。</span></p><p><span>事实上并非如此。</span></p><p><span>淘宝很早就有布局下沉市场，甚至早于拼多多，10年前淘宝村也曾风靡一时。2014 年，阿里提出“千县万村”计划，要在3-5年间投资100亿元、建立1000个县级运营中心和10万个村级服务站。</span></p><p><span>可以说，淘宝对于下沉市场的重视和投入不弱于任何一个电商平台，包括拼多多和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>。</span></p><p><span>当初的淘宝，不论是下沉市场和农村市场的商家还是用户规模，淘宝也是强于其他任何一个电商平台。</span></p><p><span>然而，淘宝在下沉市场确实失利了，但要将淘宝落寞的核心原因归因于下沉市场的失败，同样也是站不住脚的。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c448de5e6b646d6b1acd2c08257ac03\"/></p><p><span><strong>有人将淘宝的落寞归因于内容电商的失落</strong></span></p><p><span>抖音、快手、小红书借助内容电商崛起，确实对整个电商格局产生了非常大的影响，尤其是今天的抖音，已经成长为中国电商的第四极。</span></p><p><span>事实上，淘宝在短视频、直播等内容电商的布局和投入，同样不弱于任何一家电商平台和任何一家短视频直播平台。</span></p><p><span>早在2016年4月，时任阿里CEO的张勇就将社区化、内容化定为淘宝未来的方向。之后，淘宝上线了直播频道、淘宝头条、问大家和淘宝社区等一些列内容专区。与此同时，淘宝也开始全面打造短视频，开始打造自己的短视频APP。</span></p><p><span>在直播方面的布局，淘宝就更早了。而最早在电商直播做出成果的当属淘宝直播了，薇娅、李佳琦等一众头部主播都诞生于淘宝直播。此后，才有了抖音电商直播、快手电商直播对淘宝直播的效仿。</span></p><p><span>今天的淘宝，在内容电商的投资和布局依然不弱于任何一家电商平台，淘宝并没有在内容电商败给其他电商平台。甚至可以这么说，淘宝电商直播比除抖音直播之外的所有电商直播都要做得好。</span></p><p><span><strong>淘宝，只是败给了时代</strong></span></p><p><span>正如那句名言：只有时代的马云，没有马云的时代。</span></p><p><strong><span>同样，也只有时代的淘宝，没有淘宝的时代。</span></strong></p><p><span>淘宝当初的崛起，恰恰是时代造就的产物，当初国内电商还是一片空白，淘宝凭借着对中国市场和商家更为熟悉，战胜了当时全球最大的电商网站<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>。</span></p><p><span>下沉市场的失利，只是因为淘宝不小心赶上了消费降级，拼多多的强势崛起同样也受益于消费降级这个大时代。谁也不曾预料到，今天的消费降级来得如此快，来得如此迅猛。</span></p><p><span>张勇当初对于中国经济未来的判断，一直都是消费升级，我相信马云先生当初也是如此判断的，谁也没想到消费降级这个意外来得如此快。</span></p><p><span>抖音、快手等内容电商平台的兴起，同样也是赶上了短视频直播这个风口。疫情三年，让越来越多人开始沉迷于短视频，痴迷于直播。抖音、快手天生因为内容对于用户的吸引，借助足够的用户时长，从而让越来越多用户在平台上逐步养成了消费习惯。</span></p><p><span>但是淘宝、京东、拼多多等电商平台，因为电商的基因，却很难通过培养用户的内容兴趣，再去吸引用户消费。电商平台的基因也注定了，它们的短视频和直播也基本都是围绕着电商。</span></p><p><span>短视频直播这个内容风口，就注定了抖音、快手、视频号的内容电商时代，这是谁也难以阻挡的电商趋势。</span></p><p><strong><span>所以，今天淘宝的落寞，只是败给了时代。至于下一个电商时代，谁能把握？我想谁也给不了答案。</span></strong></p><p><em><span>文/刘旷公众号，ID：liukuang110，配图来自Canva可画</span></em></p></div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B543WZ88.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0293314216.USD":"ALLIANZ GEM EQUITY HIGH DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","BK1502":"双十一","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD","IE00B5MMRT66.SGD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK1575":"同股不同权","LU0029874905.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" INC","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0229945570.USD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0032431581.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0048597586.USD":"富达亚洲焦点A","LU0348783233.USD":"安联东方收入型 CI A Dis美元","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","BK1501":"阿里概念股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0029875118.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4502":"阿里概念","LU0128522744.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" ACC","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","BK4579":"人工智能"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAxNTM3MTUxOA==&mid=2650861493&idx=1&sn=2f935947dbe7e96c960291ccfb62ad68&chksm=81130e5337f23462f36a2a5e42b268c65d49f5872c9eb062291f9beed26e214e1a87e93cb955&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2446378482","content_text":"今天的淘宝，看山不是山，看水不是水，境遇已大不相同。高盛报告显示，淘宝天猫的市场份额从2019年的66%，下降至2022年的44%左右，四年降幅1/3。2024年淘宝的市场份额还剩多少，很难说清楚，但是这两年，拼多多和抖音的势头是越来越猛了，还有视频号、小红书、快手等一众内容平台在抢夺电商这块蛋糕。有人将淘宝的落寞归因于管理者的失策张勇毫无疑问成为了最大的买单者，毕竟事情没做好，最终总是需要人来承担。但是真的只是张勇的管理失策吗？如果要论管理者失策，难道马云没有责任？蔡崇信没有责任？成者王侯败者寇，这话确实不假，但是要把事情的责任全部都推到人的身上，并不完全合乎情理，更何况张勇并非无能之辈。其一，张勇能做到阿里巴巴整个集团董事长兼CEO的位置，并非是靠运气得来的，而是靠着自己一路厮杀所展现出来的能力。他还是“双十一”这个伟大狂欢购物节的缔造者，帮助阿里巴巴成功的实现了从PC端到移动互联网的变迁。其二，马云识人的本事，放眼整个互联网，有几人能说自己比马云厉害？既然当初决定把整个阿里巴巴集团都交给张勇来打理，马云也是经过足够的深思熟虑后才做的决定，同时也说明了马云对张勇能力的充分认可！既然张勇并非无能之辈，又是有功之臣，那把淘宝的落寞归因于张勇的管理失策，又是否妥当呢？很明显，不妥当。有人将淘宝的落寞归因于下沉市场的失败一直主打下沉市场的拼多多，这几年发展确实很猛，尤其是今天拼多多的市值已经超越阿里巴巴，这让很多人都说淘宝因为下沉市场的失利，所以输给了拼多多。事实上并非如此。淘宝很早就有布局下沉市场，甚至早于拼多多，10年前淘宝村也曾风靡一时。2014 年，阿里提出“千县万村”计划，要在3-5年间投资100亿元、建立1000个县级运营中心和10万个村级服务站。可以说，淘宝对于下沉市场的重视和投入不弱于任何一个电商平台，包括拼多多和京东。当初的淘宝，不论是下沉市场和农村市场的商家还是用户规模，淘宝也是强于其他任何一个电商平台。然而，淘宝在下沉市场确实失利了，但要将淘宝落寞的核心原因归因于下沉市场的失败，同样也是站不住脚的。有人将淘宝的落寞归因于内容电商的失落抖音、快手、小红书借助内容电商崛起，确实对整个电商格局产生了非常大的影响，尤其是今天的抖音，已经成长为中国电商的第四极。事实上，淘宝在短视频、直播等内容电商的布局和投入，同样不弱于任何一家电商平台和任何一家短视频直播平台。早在2016年4月，时任阿里CEO的张勇就将社区化、内容化定为淘宝未来的方向。之后，淘宝上线了直播频道、淘宝头条、问大家和淘宝社区等一些列内容专区。与此同时，淘宝也开始全面打造短视频，开始打造自己的短视频APP。在直播方面的布局，淘宝就更早了。而最早在电商直播做出成果的当属淘宝直播了，薇娅、李佳琦等一众头部主播都诞生于淘宝直播。此后，才有了抖音电商直播、快手电商直播对淘宝直播的效仿。今天的淘宝，在内容电商的投资和布局依然不弱于任何一家电商平台，淘宝并没有在内容电商败给其他电商平台。甚至可以这么说，淘宝电商直播比除抖音直播之外的所有电商直播都要做得好。淘宝，只是败给了时代正如那句名言：只有时代的马云，没有马云的时代。同样，也只有时代的淘宝，没有淘宝的时代。淘宝当初的崛起，恰恰是时代造就的产物，当初国内电商还是一片空白，淘宝凭借着对中国市场和商家更为熟悉，战胜了当时全球最大的电商网站eBay。下沉市场的失利，只是因为淘宝不小心赶上了消费降级，拼多多的强势崛起同样也受益于消费降级这个大时代。谁也不曾预料到，今天的消费降级来得如此快，来得如此迅猛。张勇当初对于中国经济未来的判断，一直都是消费升级，我相信马云先生当初也是如此判断的，谁也没想到消费降级这个意外来得如此快。抖音、快手等内容电商平台的兴起，同样也是赶上了短视频直播这个风口。疫情三年，让越来越多人开始沉迷于短视频，痴迷于直播。抖音、快手天生因为内容对于用户的吸引，借助足够的用户时长，从而让越来越多用户在平台上逐步养成了消费习惯。但是淘宝、京东、拼多多等电商平台，因为电商的基因，却很难通过培养用户的内容兴趣，再去吸引用户消费。电商平台的基因也注定了，它们的短视频和直播也基本都是围绕着电商。短视频直播这个内容风口，就注定了抖音、快手、视频号的内容电商时代，这是谁也难以阻挡的电商趋势。所以，今天淘宝的落寞，只是败给了时代。至于下一个电商时代，谁能把握？我想谁也给不了答案。文/刘旷公众号，ID：liukuang110，配图来自Canva可画","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311484365594856,"gmtCreate":1717072035087,"gmtModify":1717072037239,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T86问题就这一没底线的公司搞出来的，一人错整个行业买单","listText":"T86问题就这一没底线的公司搞出来的，一人错整个行业买单","text":"T86问题就这一没底线的公司搞出来的，一人错整个行业买单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311484365594856","repostId":"2439966083","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308302926405944,"gmtCreate":1716291111417,"gmtModify":1716291113290,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"国人的公司真的很多坑","listText":"国人的公司真的很多坑","text":"国人的公司真的很多坑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308302926405944","repostId":"2437495789","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2437495789","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Share your news with media, investors, and consumers with targeted distribution options from one of the world’s largest and most trusted newswires.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"GlobeNewswire","id":"1016364462","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31bb960c88eab45f27ccc9fce75dee9a"},"pubTimestamp":1716280778,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2437495789?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-21 16:39","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"JD.com Drops 5% After the Company Announces Proposed Offering of US$1.5 Billion Convertible Senior Notes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2437495789","media":"GlobeNewswire","summary":"BEIJING, May  21, 2024  (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. (“JD” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: JD and HKEX: 9618 (HKD counter) and 89618 (RMB counter)), a leading supply chain-based technology and service ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>JD.com stock dropped 5% in premarket trading after the company announces proposed offering of US$1.5 billion convertible senior notes.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64a800228a11cef45f2243f80c55bc1b\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>BEIJING, May 21, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. (“JD” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: JD and HKEX: 9618 (HKD counter) and 89618 (RMB counter)), a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider, today announced a proposed offering (the “Notes Offering”) of convertible senior notes in an aggregate principal amount of US$1.5 billion due 2029 (the “Notes”), subject to market conditions and other factors. The Company intends to grant an option to the initial purchasers in the Notes Offering, exercisable within a 30-day period, beginning on and including the date of the Notes Offering, to purchase up to an additional US$225 million in aggregate principal amount of the Notes.<br/></p><p>The Company plans to use the net proceeds from the Notes Offering (a) for the Concurrent Repurchase (as described below) and to repurchase on the open market, after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time, additional Class A ordinary shares and/or American depositary shares (“ADSs”), each representing two Class A ordinary shares, of the Company pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), (b) to expand its overseas business, (c) to further improve its supply chain network and (d) for working capital needs.</p><p><strong>Expected Terms of the Notes</strong></p><p>When issued, the Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company. The Notes will mature on June 1, 2029, unless earlier redeemed, repurchased or converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date.</p><p>Holders of the Notes may convert their Notes at their option at any time prior to the close of business on the third scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date. Upon conversion, the Company will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, ADSs, or a combination of cash and ADSs, at the Company’s election. Holders may elect to receive Class A ordinary shares in lieu of any ADSs deliverable upon conversion, which will be fungible with the Company’s Class A ordinary shares listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“Hong Kong Stock Exchange”) after the resale restriction termination date (as set forth in the terms of the Notes). The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes.</p><p>Holders of the Notes may require the Company to repurchase all or part of their Notes for cash on June 1, 2027 or in the event of certain fundamental changes, at a repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant repurchase date. In addition, on or after June 8, 2027, the Company may redeem all or part of the Notes for cash subject to certain conditions, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant optional redemption date. Furthermore, the Company may redeem all but not part of the Notes in the event of certain changes in the tax laws or if less than 10% of the aggregate principal amount of the Notes originally issued remains outstanding at such time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the related redemption date.</p><p><strong>Concurrent and Future Repurchases</strong></p><p>Concurrently with the pricing of the Notes, the Company plans to repurchase a number of its Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs to be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes from certain purchasers of the Notes in off-market privately negotiated transactions effected through one of the initial purchasers or its affiliates, as the Company’s agent (such transactions, the “Concurrent Repurchase”). The Concurrent Repurchase is expected to facilitate the initial hedging by purchasers of the Notes who desire to hedge their investments in the Notes, as the Company intends to repurchase the entire initial delta of the transaction. This will allow such purchasers of the Notes to establish short positions that generally correspond to commercially reasonable initial hedges of their investments in the Notes. The Concurrent Repurchase will be made pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program announced in March 2024. The Company expects the purchase price in the Concurrent Repurchase to be (i) in the case of ADSs, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024 as adjusted for the ADS-to-share ratio at a pre-determined exchange rate for U.S. dollars and (ii) in the case of Class A ordinary shares, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024.</p><p>In addition to the Concurrent Repurchase, the Company may also repurchase additional Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs on the open market after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time. The Concurrent Repurchase and future repurchases pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program(s) will be funded by the net proceeds of the Notes Offering and other cash on hand, and, in the aggregate, are generally expected to offset potential dilution to the holders of the Company’s ordinary shares (including in the form of ADSs) upon conversion of the Notes.</p><p><strong>Other Matters</strong></p><p>The repurchase activities by the Company, whether in the Concurrent Repurchase or otherwise pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), could increase, or reduce the magnitude of any decrease in, the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes.</p><p>The Company expects that potential purchasers of the Notes may employ a convertible arbitrage strategy to hedge their exposure in connection with the Notes. Any such activities by potential purchasers of the Notes following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity date could affect the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes. The effect, if any, of the activities described in this paragraph, including the direction or magnitude, on the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes will depend on a variety of factors, including market conditions, and cannot be ascertained at this time.</p><p>The Notes, the ADSs deliverable upon conversion of the Notes, if any, and the Class A ordinary shares represented thereby or deliverable upon conversion of Notes in lieu thereof have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) or securities laws of any other places. They may not be offered or sold within the United States or to U.S. persons, except to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 144A under the Securities Act and to certain non-U.S. persons in offshore transactions in reliance on Regulation S under the Securities Act.</p><p>This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities, nor shall there be a sale of the securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.</p><p>This press release contains information about the pending Notes Offering, and there can be no assurance that the Notes Offering will be completed.</p><p><strong>About JD.com, Inc.</strong></p><p>JD.com is a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider. The company’s cutting-edge retail infrastructure seeks to enable consumers to buy whatever they want, whenever and wherever they want it. The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.</p><p><strong>Safe Harbor Statement</strong></p><p>This announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “confident” and similar statements. JD.com may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in announcements made on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about JD.com’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: JD.com’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; its ability to attract and retain new customers and to increase revenues generated from repeat customers; its expectations regarding demand for and market acceptance of its products and services; trends and competition in China’s e-commerce market; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of the Chinese e-commerce market; laws, regulations and governmental policies relating to the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate; potential changes in laws, regulations and governmental policies or changes in the interpretation and implementation of laws, regulations and governmental policies that could adversely affect the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate, including, among others, initiatives to enhance supervision of companies listed on an overseas exchange and tighten scrutiny over data privacy and data security; risks associated with JD.com’s acquisitions, investments and alliances, including fluctuation in the market value of JD.com’s investment portfolio; natural disasters and geopolitical events; change in tax rates and financial risks; intensity of competition; and general market and economic conditions in China and globally. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in JD.com’s filings with the SEC and the announcements on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. All information provided herein is as of the date of this announcement, and JD.com undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2196de8ba412c60c22ab491af7b1409\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD.com Drops 5% After the Company Announces Proposed Offering of US$1.5 Billion Convertible Senior Notes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD.com Drops 5% After the Company Announces Proposed Offering of US$1.5 Billion Convertible Senior Notes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1016364462\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/31bb960c88eab45f27ccc9fce75dee9a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">GlobeNewswire </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-05-21 16:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>JD.com stock dropped 5% in premarket trading after the company announces proposed offering of US$1.5 billion convertible senior notes.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/64a800228a11cef45f2243f80c55bc1b\" tg-width=\"469\" tg-height=\"419\"/></p><p>BEIJING, May 21, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. (“JD” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: JD and HKEX: 9618 (HKD counter) and 89618 (RMB counter)), a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider, today announced a proposed offering (the “Notes Offering”) of convertible senior notes in an aggregate principal amount of US$1.5 billion due 2029 (the “Notes”), subject to market conditions and other factors. The Company intends to grant an option to the initial purchasers in the Notes Offering, exercisable within a 30-day period, beginning on and including the date of the Notes Offering, to purchase up to an additional US$225 million in aggregate principal amount of the Notes.<br/></p><p>The Company plans to use the net proceeds from the Notes Offering (a) for the Concurrent Repurchase (as described below) and to repurchase on the open market, after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time, additional Class A ordinary shares and/or American depositary shares (“ADSs”), each representing two Class A ordinary shares, of the Company pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), (b) to expand its overseas business, (c) to further improve its supply chain network and (d) for working capital needs.</p><p><strong>Expected Terms of the Notes</strong></p><p>When issued, the Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company. The Notes will mature on June 1, 2029, unless earlier redeemed, repurchased or converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date.</p><p>Holders of the Notes may convert their Notes at their option at any time prior to the close of business on the third scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date. Upon conversion, the Company will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, ADSs, or a combination of cash and ADSs, at the Company’s election. Holders may elect to receive Class A ordinary shares in lieu of any ADSs deliverable upon conversion, which will be fungible with the Company’s Class A ordinary shares listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“Hong Kong Stock Exchange”) after the resale restriction termination date (as set forth in the terms of the Notes). The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes.</p><p>Holders of the Notes may require the Company to repurchase all or part of their Notes for cash on June 1, 2027 or in the event of certain fundamental changes, at a repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant repurchase date. In addition, on or after June 8, 2027, the Company may redeem all or part of the Notes for cash subject to certain conditions, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant optional redemption date. Furthermore, the Company may redeem all but not part of the Notes in the event of certain changes in the tax laws or if less than 10% of the aggregate principal amount of the Notes originally issued remains outstanding at such time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the related redemption date.</p><p><strong>Concurrent and Future Repurchases</strong></p><p>Concurrently with the pricing of the Notes, the Company plans to repurchase a number of its Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs to be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes from certain purchasers of the Notes in off-market privately negotiated transactions effected through one of the initial purchasers or its affiliates, as the Company’s agent (such transactions, the “Concurrent Repurchase”). The Concurrent Repurchase is expected to facilitate the initial hedging by purchasers of the Notes who desire to hedge their investments in the Notes, as the Company intends to repurchase the entire initial delta of the transaction. This will allow such purchasers of the Notes to establish short positions that generally correspond to commercially reasonable initial hedges of their investments in the Notes. The Concurrent Repurchase will be made pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program announced in March 2024. The Company expects the purchase price in the Concurrent Repurchase to be (i) in the case of ADSs, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024 as adjusted for the ADS-to-share ratio at a pre-determined exchange rate for U.S. dollars and (ii) in the case of Class A ordinary shares, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024.</p><p>In addition to the Concurrent Repurchase, the Company may also repurchase additional Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs on the open market after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time. The Concurrent Repurchase and future repurchases pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program(s) will be funded by the net proceeds of the Notes Offering and other cash on hand, and, in the aggregate, are generally expected to offset potential dilution to the holders of the Company’s ordinary shares (including in the form of ADSs) upon conversion of the Notes.</p><p><strong>Other Matters</strong></p><p>The repurchase activities by the Company, whether in the Concurrent Repurchase or otherwise pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), could increase, or reduce the magnitude of any decrease in, the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes.</p><p>The Company expects that potential purchasers of the Notes may employ a convertible arbitrage strategy to hedge their exposure in connection with the Notes. Any such activities by potential purchasers of the Notes following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity date could affect the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes. The effect, if any, of the activities described in this paragraph, including the direction or magnitude, on the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes will depend on a variety of factors, including market conditions, and cannot be ascertained at this time.</p><p>The Notes, the ADSs deliverable upon conversion of the Notes, if any, and the Class A ordinary shares represented thereby or deliverable upon conversion of Notes in lieu thereof have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) or securities laws of any other places. They may not be offered or sold within the United States or to U.S. persons, except to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 144A under the Securities Act and to certain non-U.S. persons in offshore transactions in reliance on Regulation S under the Securities Act.</p><p>This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities, nor shall there be a sale of the securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.</p><p>This press release contains information about the pending Notes Offering, and there can be no assurance that the Notes Offering will be completed.</p><p><strong>About JD.com, Inc.</strong></p><p>JD.com is a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider. The company’s cutting-edge retail infrastructure seeks to enable consumers to buy whatever they want, whenever and wherever they want it. The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.</p><p><strong>Safe Harbor Statement</strong></p><p>This announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “confident” and similar statements. JD.com may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in announcements made on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about JD.com’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: JD.com’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; its ability to attract and retain new customers and to increase revenues generated from repeat customers; its expectations regarding demand for and market acceptance of its products and services; trends and competition in China’s e-commerce market; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of the Chinese e-commerce market; laws, regulations and governmental policies relating to the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate; potential changes in laws, regulations and governmental policies or changes in the interpretation and implementation of laws, regulations and governmental policies that could adversely affect the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate, including, among others, initiatives to enhance supervision of companies listed on an overseas exchange and tighten scrutiny over data privacy and data security; risks associated with JD.com’s acquisitions, investments and alliances, including fluctuation in the market value of JD.com’s investment portfolio; natural disasters and geopolitical events; change in tax rates and financial risks; intensity of competition; and general market and economic conditions in China and globally. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in JD.com’s filings with the SEC and the announcements on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. All information provided herein is as of the date of this announcement, and JD.com undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2196de8ba412c60c22ab491af7b1409\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89618":"京东集团-SWR","LU0431992006.USD":"摩根大通新兴市场机会A（acc）","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0588545904.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Income ASDM SGD","BK1588":"回港中概股","LU1366334651.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0588545730.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"ADM\" (USD) INC","BK1249":"综合零售","IE0008368742.USD":"首域中国增长基金I Acc","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","BK4588":"碎股","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0163747925.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY A ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","JD":"京东","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU0594300419.USD":"富达中国消费基金A","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU0315178854.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"A\" ACC","LU1044876610.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) ASIAN CONTRARIAN EQUITY \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","LU0029875118.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK1591":"就地过年概念","LU0456842615.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0315179316.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN DYNAMIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1502":"双十一","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4558":"双十一","LU0868486357.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Opportunities A (acc) SGD-H","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1044875133.USD":"天利亚洲反向股票 AU Acc","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","09618":"京东集团-SW","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1366334578.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0228367735.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0791591158.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD"},"source_url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/05/21/2885338/0/en/JD-com-Announces-Proposed-Offering-of-US-1-5-Billion-Convertible-Senior-Notes.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2437495789","content_text":"JD.com stock dropped 5% in premarket trading after the company announces proposed offering of US$1.5 billion convertible senior notes.BEIJING, May 21, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. (“JD” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: JD and HKEX: 9618 (HKD counter) and 89618 (RMB counter)), a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider, today announced a proposed offering (the “Notes Offering”) of convertible senior notes in an aggregate principal amount of US$1.5 billion due 2029 (the “Notes”), subject to market conditions and other factors. The Company intends to grant an option to the initial purchasers in the Notes Offering, exercisable within a 30-day period, beginning on and including the date of the Notes Offering, to purchase up to an additional US$225 million in aggregate principal amount of the Notes.The Company plans to use the net proceeds from the Notes Offering (a) for the Concurrent Repurchase (as described below) and to repurchase on the open market, after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time, additional Class A ordinary shares and/or American depositary shares (“ADSs”), each representing two Class A ordinary shares, of the Company pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), (b) to expand its overseas business, (c) to further improve its supply chain network and (d) for working capital needs.Expected Terms of the NotesWhen issued, the Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company. The Notes will mature on June 1, 2029, unless earlier redeemed, repurchased or converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date.Holders of the Notes may convert their Notes at their option at any time prior to the close of business on the third scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date. Upon conversion, the Company will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, ADSs, or a combination of cash and ADSs, at the Company’s election. Holders may elect to receive Class A ordinary shares in lieu of any ADSs deliverable upon conversion, which will be fungible with the Company’s Class A ordinary shares listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited (“Hong Kong Stock Exchange”) after the resale restriction termination date (as set forth in the terms of the Notes). The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes.Holders of the Notes may require the Company to repurchase all or part of their Notes for cash on June 1, 2027 or in the event of certain fundamental changes, at a repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant repurchase date. In addition, on or after June 8, 2027, the Company may redeem all or part of the Notes for cash subject to certain conditions, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the relevant optional redemption date. Furthermore, the Company may redeem all but not part of the Notes in the event of certain changes in the tax laws or if less than 10% of the aggregate principal amount of the Notes originally issued remains outstanding at such time, at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the Notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the related redemption date.Concurrent and Future RepurchasesConcurrently with the pricing of the Notes, the Company plans to repurchase a number of its Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs to be determined at the time of pricing of the Notes from certain purchasers of the Notes in off-market privately negotiated transactions effected through one of the initial purchasers or its affiliates, as the Company’s agent (such transactions, the “Concurrent Repurchase”). The Concurrent Repurchase is expected to facilitate the initial hedging by purchasers of the Notes who desire to hedge their investments in the Notes, as the Company intends to repurchase the entire initial delta of the transaction. This will allow such purchasers of the Notes to establish short positions that generally correspond to commercially reasonable initial hedges of their investments in the Notes. The Concurrent Repurchase will be made pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program announced in March 2024. The Company expects the purchase price in the Concurrent Repurchase to be (i) in the case of ADSs, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024 as adjusted for the ADS-to-share ratio at a pre-determined exchange rate for U.S. dollars and (ii) in the case of Class A ordinary shares, the closing price of the Class A ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 21, 2024.In addition to the Concurrent Repurchase, the Company may also repurchase additional Class A ordinary shares and/or ADSs on the open market after the pricing of the Notes and from time to time. The Concurrent Repurchase and future repurchases pursuant to the Company’s share repurchase program(s) will be funded by the net proceeds of the Notes Offering and other cash on hand, and, in the aggregate, are generally expected to offset potential dilution to the holders of the Company’s ordinary shares (including in the form of ADSs) upon conversion of the Notes.Other MattersThe repurchase activities by the Company, whether in the Concurrent Repurchase or otherwise pursuant to its share repurchase program(s), could increase, or reduce the magnitude of any decrease in, the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes.The Company expects that potential purchasers of the Notes may employ a convertible arbitrage strategy to hedge their exposure in connection with the Notes. Any such activities by potential purchasers of the Notes following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity date could affect the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes. The effect, if any, of the activities described in this paragraph, including the direction or magnitude, on the market price of the ADSs and/or Class A ordinary shares and/or the trading price of the Notes will depend on a variety of factors, including market conditions, and cannot be ascertained at this time.The Notes, the ADSs deliverable upon conversion of the Notes, if any, and the Class A ordinary shares represented thereby or deliverable upon conversion of Notes in lieu thereof have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) or securities laws of any other places. They may not be offered or sold within the United States or to U.S. persons, except to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 144A under the Securities Act and to certain non-U.S. persons in offshore transactions in reliance on Regulation S under the Securities Act.This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any securities, nor shall there be a sale of the securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.This press release contains information about the pending Notes Offering, and there can be no assurance that the Notes Offering will be completed.About JD.com, Inc.JD.com is a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider. The company’s cutting-edge retail infrastructure seeks to enable consumers to buy whatever they want, whenever and wherever they want it. The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.Safe Harbor StatementThis announcement contains forward-looking statements. These statements are made under the “safe harbor” provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements can be identified by terminology such as “will,” “expects,” “anticipates,” “future,” “intends,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “confident” and similar statements. JD.com may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in its periodic reports to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in announcements made on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in its annual report to shareholders, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by its officers, directors or employees to third parties. Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about JD.com’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement, including but not limited to the following: JD.com’s growth strategies; its future business development, results of operations and financial condition; its ability to attract and retain new customers and to increase revenues generated from repeat customers; its expectations regarding demand for and market acceptance of its products and services; trends and competition in China’s e-commerce market; changes in its revenues and certain cost or expense items; the expected growth of the Chinese e-commerce market; laws, regulations and governmental policies relating to the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate; potential changes in laws, regulations and governmental policies or changes in the interpretation and implementation of laws, regulations and governmental policies that could adversely affect the industries in which JD.com or its business partners operate, including, among others, initiatives to enhance supervision of companies listed on an overseas exchange and tighten scrutiny over data privacy and data security; risks associated with JD.com’s acquisitions, investments and alliances, including fluctuation in the market value of JD.com’s investment portfolio; natural disasters and geopolitical events; change in tax rates and financial risks; intensity of competition; and general market and economic conditions in China and globally. Further information regarding these and other risks is included in JD.com’s filings with the SEC and the announcements on the website of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. All information provided herein is as of the date of this announcement, and JD.com undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, except as required under applicable law.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3437340877473194","authorId":"3437340877473194","name":"Cjfsky201610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/990f83875eb3fd831df53d5601c8bd7c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3437340877473194","authorIdStr":"3437340877473194"},"content":"为什么这么说？怎么分析","text":"为什么这么说？怎么分析","html":"为什么这么说？怎么分析"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308183899037992,"gmtCreate":1716262051136,"gmtModify":1716262052867,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"都不打个正眼看","listText":"都不打个正眼看","text":"都不打个正眼看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308183899037992","repostId":"2436129423","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2436129423","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1716192360,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2436129423?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-20 16:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"字节大模型大降价，百度、阿里能否抗住？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2436129423","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"一年前，字节跳动就完成了自主研发大模型，豆包大模型原名云雀，是国内首批通过算法备案的大模型之一，在内部亲切的称呼它为豆包。打响价格战如何快速抢占国内市场，谭待在发布会首次对外阐述了字节跳动在大模型的战略布局。在此次发布会，字节跳动还发布新一代AI应用搭建平台扣子，连接大模型和用户场景的扣子，无论用户是否有编程基础，都可以在扣子上快速搭建基于大模型的各类Bot，并","content":"<div>\n<p>作者|谢涵编辑|陈秋运营|陈小妍另镜(ID:DMS-012)去年3月在OpenAI推出GPT-4一天后，国内众多头部企业华为、百度、阿里、腾讯、科大讯飞、商汤等科技企业纷纷快速布局AI大模型赛道，而备受外界期待的字节跳动AI大模型业务却迟迟未向外界公布具体战略。时隔一年多，字节跳动终于对外宣布，5月15日上午，字节跳动旗下云服务平台火山引擎在北京举办了声势浩大的发布会，火山引擎总裁谭待在发布会上...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240520160825877d2c49&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240520160825877d2c49&s=b><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者|谢涵编辑|陈秋运营|陈小妍另镜(ID:DMS-012)去年3月在OpenAI推出GPT-4一天后，国内众多头部企业华为、百度、阿里、腾讯、科大讯飞、商汤等科技企业纷纷快速布局AI大模型赛道，而备受外界期待的字节跳动AI大模型业务却迟迟未向外界公布具体战略。时隔一年多，字节跳动终于对外宣布，5月15日上午，字节跳动旗下云服务平台火山引擎在北京举办了声势浩大的发布会，火山引擎总裁谭待在发布会上...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240520160825877d2c49&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89888":"百度集团-SWR","89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240520160825877d2c49&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2436129423","content_text":"作者|谢涵编辑|陈秋运营|陈小妍另镜(ID:DMS-012)去年3月在OpenAI推出GPT-4一天后，国内众多头部企业华为、百度、阿里、腾讯、科大讯飞、商汤等科技企业纷纷快速布局AI大模型赛道，而备受外界期待的字节跳动AI大模型业务却迟迟未向外界公布具体战略。时隔一年多，字节跳动终于对外宣布，5月15日上午，字节跳动旗下云服务平台火山引擎在北京举办了声势浩大的发布会，火山引擎总裁谭待在发布会上正式宣布，字节跳动自研豆包大模型对外提供服务。据火山引擎总裁谭待介绍，经过一年时间的迭代和市场验证，豆包大模型正成为国内使用量最大、应用场景最丰富的大模型之一，目前日均处理1200亿Tokens文本，生成3000万张图片。根据在发布会披露数据，豆包用户规模在快速增长，月活用户数已达2600万，被创建智能体达800多万个。在定价方面，对比国内外目前最新的32K主力模型，GPT4价格约为0.42元/千Tokens，百度文心一言和阿里最新的通义千问2.5价格均接近0.12元/千Tokens，而豆包通用模型pro-32k版模型推理输入价格仅为0.0008元/千Tokens，比行业低99.3%。在长文本方面，目前阿里和百度还没有跟进长文本128k，GPT4-Turbo价格约为7分钱/千Tokens，豆包通用模型Pro-128K模型定价为0.005元/千Tokens，比行业低95.8%。这是什么概念？《三国演义》很多人都读过，一共有75万字，根据火山引擎公布的价格计算，一元钱就能买到豆包主力模型的125万Tokens，大约是200万个汉字，意味着只需要1块钱就能处理3本《三国演义》的文字量。谈及低价策略，在发布会当天下午的群访中，火山引擎总裁谭待向另镜等媒体解释，“我们做这个定价，是我们对技术还是有信心的，这是最关键的，而不是我们拿亏损来做这件事情，亏损是接受不了的。”我们在技术上有优化成本的手段，比如分布式推理、混合调度等，未来能持续以此价格服务行业，亏损换收入不可持续，我们不会这么做。能力最强的主力模型定价都比行业低，简单来说，是因为我们能做，也需要这么做。做应用一定要生态繁荣，市场面临非常多的不确定性，试错成本要降得非常低，才能够让大家广泛地用起来，不管是大的企业还是说开发的个人，都能用起来，所以市场的呼声就是说我们需要更低成本的核心。谭待称，随着大模型技术的不断发展，企业与开发者都在积极投身大模型，各类场景蓄势待发。今年大模型能力提升，应用是很重要的环节，我们判断，在未来一年，大模型将在越来越多的企业场景从POC阶段走到真实的生产系统。一年前，字节跳动就完成了自主研发大模型，豆包大模型原名云雀，是国内首批通过算法备案的大模型之一，在内部亲切的称呼它为豆包。在过去一年里，字节内部50多个业务已经大量使用豆包进行AI创新，包括抖音、头条、番茄小说等多个产品。同时火山引擎也以邀测的方式，和不同行业的头部客户对基于豆包大模型进行深度共创，包括手机、汽车、金融、消费、互娱等等领域。打响价格战如何快速抢占国内市场，谭待在发布会首次对外阐述了字节跳动在大模型的战略布局。一是，此次节跳动自研豆包大模型，提供的是一个有多模态能力的模型家族，目前主要包括通用模型pro、通用模型lite、语音识别模型、语音合成模型、文生图模型等九款模型。其中通用大模型支持128k长文本，也包含轻量级大模型以及当下非常火的文生图等垂类大模型。由此可见，虽然对外宣布比较晚，但低价策略和矩阵打法足以撼动行业格局。二是，在市场定位方面，字节跳动抛出一张王炸牌，那就是卷起行业价格战，价格定位方面不只比国外GPT4价格低很多，比百度文心一言和阿里通义千问都低很多。“大的使用量，才能打磨出好模型，也能大幅降低模型推理的单位成本。豆包主力模型在企业市场的定价只有0.0008元/千Tokens，0.8厘就能处理1500多个汉字，比行业便宜99.3%，”谭待表示，大模型从以分计价到以厘计价，将助力企业以更低成本加速业务创新。谭待认为，降低成本是推动大模型快进到“价值创造阶段”的一个关键因素。豆包大模型的定价大幅低于行业价格：以豆包通用模型pro-32k版为例，模型推理输入价格仅为0.0008元/千Tokens。而市面上同规格模型的定价一般为0.12元/千Tokens，是豆包模型价格的150倍。三是，依托内部50多个业务线和前期大模型进行深度共创，字节大模型在从早期预训练战场中，快速转战场景融合和商业化阶段。发布会当天，火山引擎联合中国电动汽车百人会，与吉利汽车、长城汽车、捷途汽车、赛力斯、智己汽车等20余家厂商，宣布成立汽车大模型生态联盟，致力于为消费者带来汽车全场景AI新体验。同时，火山引擎与OPPO、vivo、荣耀、小米、三星、华硕宣布成立智能终端大模型联盟。OPPO小布助手、荣耀智慧办公智能助手、小米“小爱同学”，以及华硕笔记本电脑的豆叮AI助手等应用，均已接入火山引擎的大模型服务背后技术路线目前，豆包大模型已经在智能终端、汽车、金融、社交互娱、在线教育、电商零售、科研、企业服务和法律行业九大领域实践。不同行业的数据和垂类模型有很大的区别，背后大模型的技术难度可想而知。火山引擎副总裁、字节跳动开源委员会负责人张鑫指出，大模型的出现，让AI从“快思考”进入到“慢思考”阶段，并带来了使用方式从图形界面到自然语言，开发方式从写代码到写提示词/图，研发范式从“碎片化”到“大一统”，效率体验从Copilot到Agent的四大变革。然而，面对变革所带来的新发展机遇，企业在数据驱动的大模型商业应用落地时，却面临着交互不擅长深度推理、知识不可溯源、实时更新代价高等挑战。面对上述新的挑战，火山引擎提出了四大破局方案。张鑫分享表示，首先是做好提示词工程最佳实践，掌握这一最高杠杆的技能；其次是从知识库构建和检索两大角度入手，建设企业大脑，做好检索增强生成（RAG）；再次是依托知识图谱能力对大模型进行增强，实现知识与数据的双轮驱动；最后是通过prompt优化、知识增强、调用插件、循环迭代等手段，完善任务拆解的大模型工程化。张鑫指出，火山引擎基于四大破局方案，通过沉淀最佳实践，推出一站式大模型服务平台火山方舟，以及面向业务人员的企业专属AI应用创新平台HiAgent，全面助力企业实现大模型破局的标准化、敏捷化与自动化。谭待表示，火山引擎致力于成为AI时代最开放和领先的云服务平台。全新升级的火山方舟2.0不仅提供了抖音、今日头条的搜索和内容插件等丰富的生态资源，还有着充沛的算力资源和极致弹性，保障客户的业务稳定。火山引擎算法团队也将为豆包大模型的企业客户提供支持，分享模型调优和数据处理的实践经验，与企业客户共同探索AI转型的智能未来。2023年6月，大模型服务平台火山方舟正式发布。平台提供模型精调、推理、评测等全方位功能与服务，提供丰富的插件生态和AI应用开发服务，并通过安全可信方案，专业的算法技术服务，全方位保障企业级Al应用落地。火山方舟2.0，大幅提升模型效果、核心插件、系统性能及平台体验，帮助企业推进大模型的价值创造。在此次发布会，字节跳动还发布新一代AI应用搭建平台扣子，连接大模型和用户场景的扣子，无论用户是否有编程基础，都可以在扣子上快速搭建基于大模型的各类Bot，并将Bot发布到各个社交平台、通讯软件或部署到网站等其他渠道。目前，扣子专业版已集成在火山引擎的大模型服务平台“火山方舟”上，提供企业级SLA和高级特性。招商银行、海底捞火锅、超级猩猩、猎聘等企业，已在扣子上搭建了智能体。除此之外，本次发布会上，火山方舟还重点提到了，2.0产品对插件生态的进一步丰富，更新后的平台将会上线三个凝结了字节跳动内部强项能力的插件——联网插件、内容插件以及RAG知识库插件。总结近期，海外大模型密集迭代，5月14日凌晨，OpenAI在首次“春季新品发布会”上，发布了最新一代旗舰大模型GPT-4o，与之前只能打文字相比，变得更智能，可横跨语音、文本和视觉，超低时延的语音助手和翻译，并且可以感知人类情绪。而更让业界震惊的是，它居然免费，付费则可以获得五倍的使用容量。在价格方面，GPT-4o的价格是GPT-4-turbo的一半，速度却是GPT-4-turbo的两倍，速率限制也高5倍。时隔仅一天，5月15日凌晨，谷歌召开2024 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Advance的用户，上下文窗口拓展到200万token，推出开源模型Gemma2.0、文生图像模型Imagen3、视频生成对标Sora模型Veo等。而在国内更是硝烟四起，各大互联网科技企业都在加速迭代大模型版本，同时寻求商业化变现之路。字节发布自研豆包大模型，这也意味着国内大模型竞争初步竞争格局已基本形成。豆包大模型在设计上更倾向拟人化、离用户近和个性化，一大特点是能直接从抖音里搜到短视频解答比较具象的问题。而未来，个性化设计、系统承载力、模型训练能力、多模态效果和推理成本会成为每个企业需要不断跨越难点。目前国内大模型市场环境还处于初步阶段，都在极力拓展外部客户，很多客户都还处于同时与多家企业合作和接触阶段，在早期，互联网公司由于具有技术的积累和流量生态的优势，会更容易被外界关注，但最终哪家能领跑商业化变现之路，还是需要真正能解决客户需求的能力。2024年国内大模型逐渐转变为针对产业落地的行业大模型比拼，在模型框架、开发者工具、基础大模型、部署和推理工具等维度上会呈现开源和闭源共存。随着手机和汽车厂商陆续发布支持端侧AI推理的芯片或模型，AI落地端侧也成为重要布局。值得注意的是，2月份，抖音前CEO张楠从抖音转岗剪映，着手推出一个新的AI生图和视频产品。5月初，张楠交出了自己转岗后的首份作业——支持图片和视频生成的即梦AI，但目前官网显示仍处于内测阶段。初阶版视频生成能力，非会员仅支持生成3秒内容。谭待在此次发布会上坦言，企业要真正做好大模型的落地并不是一件容易的事情，有三个非常关键的挑战：第一，是模型效果，必须要有好的基础大模型才能够解决复杂的问题。第二是推理的成本，只有非常非常低的成本服务，才能够让大模型广泛的应用起来。第三是落地难度，需要有更多的工具、更多的插件、更多的平台和应用，来帮助企业在更多的场景里面非常容易地去做好大模型场景落地。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306701255319728,"gmtCreate":1715912897526,"gmtModify":1715912899099,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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10:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中国人工智能发明专利TOP10企业：腾讯第一 华为第五","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2429675979","media":"手机中国","summary":"4月22日，中国权威专利媒体IPRdaily发布了一份中国人工智能发明专利企业排行榜，榜单汇集了近十年在中国申请并公开的人工智能发明专利。平安集团以13139件专利位列第三，国家电网则以11567件专利排在第四。华为以5966件专利名列第五，而蚂蚁集团和阿里巴巴分别以4381件和4103件专利占据第六和第七的位置。京东集团和OPPO分别以3815件和3743件专利位列第八和第九，中国移动则以3709件专利跻身前十。","content":"<html><body><article><p>4月22日，中国权威专利媒体IPRdaily发布了一份中国人工智能发明专利企业排行榜，榜单汇集了近十年在中国申请并公开的人工智能发明专利。引人瞩目的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、平安、国家电网、华为、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、京东集团、OPPO、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>等企业脱颖而出，跻身前十强。</p><p>具体来看，腾讯以15626件专利位居第一，百度紧随其后，拥有13723件专利。平安集团以13139件专利位列第三，国家电网则以11567件专利排在第四。华为以5966件专利名列第五，而蚂蚁集团和阿里巴巴分别以4381件和4103件专利占据第六和第七的位置。京东集团和OPPO分别以3815件和3743件专利位列第八和第九，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600941\">中国移动</a>则以3709件专利跻身前十。</p><p>此前，腾讯公司董事会主席兼首席执行官马化腾深入回顾了过去一年腾讯旗下各项业务的发展，并展望了未来的战略规划。在长达35分钟的分享中，马化腾特别强调了AI的重要性，他指出：“AI无疑是去年乃至全行业的焦点，腾讯在这一领域也取得了显著的进步，虽然不能说最领先，但至少没有落后太多。”</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OmYE-RYiuhLGBvffPnMVH-Fb-vlrdNIRi097aVpCjCSsgAA/0\"/><p>此外，马化腾指出，接下来，我们要将AI混元大模型与我们的实际场景紧密结合，深度融合到各项业务中。我认为，短期内纯原生的AI应用可能还不会出现，更多的是通过提升我们现有产品的效率来发挥作用，这无疑是一个巨大的机遇。”</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国人工智能发明专利TOP10企业：腾讯第一 华为第五</title>\n<style 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240422103248879f01bc&s=b><strong>手机中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月22日，中国权威专利媒体IPRdaily发布了一份中国人工智能发明专利企业排行榜，榜单汇集了近十年在中国申请并公开的人工智能发明专利。引人瞩目的是，腾讯、百度、平安、国家电网、华为、蚂蚁集团、阿里巴巴、京东集团、OPPO、中国移动等企业脱颖而出，跻身前十强。具体来看，腾讯以15626件专利位居第一，百度紧随其后，拥有13723件专利。平安集团以13139件专利位列第三，国家电网则以11567件...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240422103248879f01bc&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"80700":"腾讯控股-R","80941":"中国移动-R","89618":"京东集团-SWR","89888":"百度集团-SWR","89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","600941":"中国移动","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0029875118.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU0251144936.SGD":"Fidelity Sustainable Asia Equity A-SGD","00700":"腾讯控股","LU0043850808.USD":"HSBC 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加云，带动新业务发展，淘宝天猫在品牌心智这一板是很有护城河的，也是利润的来源。C店比低价，天猫能撑起利润。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294339402186968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291370912645408,"gmtCreate":1712161364109,"gmtModify":1712167362217,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 看好ai 加云，与国际商业加菜鸟物流，只要淘天稳住就好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 看好ai 加云，与国际商业加菜鸟物流，只要淘天稳住就好","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 看好ai 加云，与国际商业加菜鸟物流，只要淘天稳住就好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/291370912645408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1264,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":285313869185032,"gmtCreate":1710663025002,"gmtModify":1710663026212,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285313869185032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":279846072479904,"gmtCreate":1709343346003,"gmtModify":1709343347695,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这样看法，那temu 和希音这些岂不是死的更快？","listText":"这样看法，那temu 和希音这些岂不是死的更快？","text":"这样看法，那temu 和希音这些岂不是死的更快？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/279846072479904","repostId":"2416760610","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2416760610","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1709299009,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2416760610?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-01 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球速卖通增长“掉队”，阿里巴巴该如何破局？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2416760610","media":"美股研究社","summary":"本季度，在Choice的推动下，全球速卖通的订单同比增长超过60%，Choice通过将更好的产品选择、价格和质量与物流速度和出色的客户支持相结合，为消费者提供了增强的体验。2024年1月，Choice约占全球速卖通订单总数的一半，并继续实现快速订单增长。正如我们所看到的，最近一个季度国际零售同比增长56%，占阿里巴巴该季度整体收入增长的66%。然而，全球速卖通看起来并不是一个可持续扩大阿里巴巴增长和利润的可行模式。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240301212040675v163ctyxz3tel36\"/><p><strong>作者 | Paulo Santos</strong><strong>编译 | 华尔街大事件</strong>目前，全球速卖通是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>（NYSE：BABA）的主要增长引擎。快速浏览一下阿里巴巴最近的收益报告就清楚地表明了这一点：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240301212041192v163o2rcvagsmf8\"/><p>速卖通在突出的细分市场中占据主导地位，正如阿里巴巴所强调的那样：截至2023年12月31日的季度，AIDC的收入同比增长44%至人民币285.16亿元（40.16亿美元），AIDC的合并订单同比增长24%。强劲的业绩得益于AIDC所有零售平台的稳健增长，尤其是跨境速卖通精选业务。随着全球对高品质、高价格产品的需求不断增长，我们的跨境业务同比快速增长。为了维持这一势头并为客户提供差异化服务，我们在本季度增加了投资，并将继续投资于进一步的增长。本季度，在Choice的推动下，全球速卖通的订单同比增长超过60%，Choice通过将更好的产品选择、价格和质量与物流速度和出色的客户支持相结合，为消费者提供了增强的体验。2024年1月，Choice约占全球速卖通订单总数的一半，并继续实现快速订单增长。正如我们所看到的，最近一个季度国际零售同比增长56%，占阿里巴巴该季度整体收入增长的66%。然而，全球速卖通看起来并不是一个可持续扩大阿里巴巴增长和利润的可行模式。在短期内，收入的大幅增长是以该部门亏损增加为代价实现的：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20240301212041738v163xsfcdtftq9k\"/><p>目前，国际上正在以损失为代价换取增长，但可以说损失还不够高！速卖通目前还没有切实可行的方法来解决很多售后问题。速卖通不愿意承担服务成本，因为它的利润率太低，而且它显然也不愿意像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>那样向供应商施压。因此，随着时间的推移，全球速卖通可能会失去一个又一个高价值客户，其声誉可能会因此受到损害，以至于它可能会因为永久性的客户获取成本而陷入困境，以弥补客户流失。当然，一个解决方案是在所有主要市场建立本地服务。但目前的模式就根本不可行。很明显，提供本地支持的本地替代品或亚马逊会为客户提供更好的服务，这既会消耗成本，也会惩罚越界的第三方供应商。不过，全球速卖通无法走亚马逊的路线，因为它向第三方卖家收取的佣金要低得多，因此无法吸收成本。速卖通根本不可能长期保持竞争力，同时其客户服务政策比其他替代方案所提供的要差得多。同时，就在近期，阿里巴巴宣布其云服务平均降价20%，以吸引业务。然而，电信市场份额增长的结构性原因并不能通过降价来解决。分析师最近对阿里巴巴的估值持乐观态度。然而，由于已经存在的挑战，以及认识到即使是其主要增长引擎也并不坚实，以及更强大且通常更便宜的投资选择的可用性，我回到了中立。阿里巴巴的估值极具吸引力，EV/<span>EBITDA</span>为3.0倍，市盈率为8.3倍，EV/FCF为4-5倍，这对于阿里巴巴这样的领先者来说确实太低了，但前提是它仍然是领先者。考虑到它所面临的挑战，阿里巴巴确实存在失去这种领导地位的风险（在云领域——它可能已经失去了这种领导地位，而且随着时间的推移，可能波及电子商务领域）。在某种程度上，我们可以说阿里巴巴的<span>净利润</span>可能相对被低估了，因此市盈率可能相对被高估了（即使如此低）。我的意思是“相对”，就像“与其他人相比”一样。其他包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、亚马逊或<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>。请注意，我并不是说阿里巴巴的市盈率低于其他公司。这是显而易见的。我的意思是，即使“较低”的市盈率仍然略微低估了真正的差异。在过去的几年里，微软、亚马逊和谷歌都延长了他们的服务器和网络设备折旧计划。现在，他们的服务器都在六年内折旧。然而，阿里巴巴的服务器折旧期限为3-5年（可能为5年）。这意味着，在相同水平的投资下，与阿里巴巴相比，微软、亚马逊和谷歌现在的折旧率更低，<span>营业利润</span>和净利润更高。这是相关的，因为阿里巴巴、亚马逊、微软和谷歌都是大型云运营商。微软的影响似乎约为净利润的5%-7%，而亚马逊的影响可能更大（考虑到它是最大的云运营商）。除了阿里巴巴在云部门和电子商务部门面临的挑战之外，我现在认为阿里巴巴目前的增长引擎速卖通可能不可持续或导致更高的部门损失。原因是认识到，对于需要保修服务的商品，速卖通现有的模式不具备竞争力——因此，要么导致客户流失/流失，要么必须修改模式，导致成本更高。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球速卖通增长“掉队”，阿里巴巴该如何破局？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球速卖通增长“掉队”，阿里巴巴该如何破局？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-01 21:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202403012121108af5ad19&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | Paulo Santos编译 | 华尔街大事件目前，全球速卖通是阿里巴巴（NYSE：BABA）的主要增长引擎。快速浏览一下阿里巴巴最近的收益报告就清楚地表明了这一点：速卖通在突出的细分市场中占据主导地位，正如阿里巴巴所强调的那样：截至2023年12月31日的季度，AIDC的收入同比增长44%至人民币285.16亿元（40.16亿美元），AIDC的合并订单同比增长24%。强劲的业绩得益于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202403012121108af5ad19&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","BK4565":"NFT概念","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","LU0348816934.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (USD)","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU1688375341.USD":"贝莱德中国灵活股票基金","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) 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华尔街大事件目前，全球速卖通是阿里巴巴（NYSE：BABA）的主要增长引擎。快速浏览一下阿里巴巴最近的收益报告就清楚地表明了这一点：速卖通在突出的细分市场中占据主导地位，正如阿里巴巴所强调的那样：截至2023年12月31日的季度，AIDC的收入同比增长44%至人民币285.16亿元（40.16亿美元），AIDC的合并订单同比增长24%。强劲的业绩得益于AIDC所有零售平台的稳健增长，尤其是跨境速卖通精选业务。随着全球对高品质、高价格产品的需求不断增长，我们的跨境业务同比快速增长。为了维持这一势头并为客户提供差异化服务，我们在本季度增加了投资，并将继续投资于进一步的增长。本季度，在Choice的推动下，全球速卖通的订单同比增长超过60%，Choice通过将更好的产品选择、价格和质量与物流速度和出色的客户支持相结合，为消费者提供了增强的体验。2024年1月，Choice约占全球速卖通订单总数的一半，并继续实现快速订单增长。正如我们所看到的，最近一个季度国际零售同比增长56%，占阿里巴巴该季度整体收入增长的66%。然而，全球速卖通看起来并不是一个可持续扩大阿里巴巴增长和利润的可行模式。在短期内，收入的大幅增长是以该部门亏损增加为代价实现的：目前，国际上正在以损失为代价换取增长，但可以说损失还不够高！速卖通目前还没有切实可行的方法来解决很多售后问题。速卖通不愿意承担服务成本，因为它的利润率太低，而且它显然也不愿意像亚马逊那样向供应商施压。因此，随着时间的推移，全球速卖通可能会失去一个又一个高价值客户，其声誉可能会因此受到损害，以至于它可能会因为永久性的客户获取成本而陷入困境，以弥补客户流失。当然，一个解决方案是在所有主要市场建立本地服务。但目前的模式就根本不可行。很明显，提供本地支持的本地替代品或亚马逊会为客户提供更好的服务，这既会消耗成本，也会惩罚越界的第三方供应商。不过，全球速卖通无法走亚马逊的路线，因为它向第三方卖家收取的佣金要低得多，因此无法吸收成本。速卖通根本不可能长期保持竞争力，同时其客户服务政策比其他替代方案所提供的要差得多。同时，就在近期，阿里巴巴宣布其云服务平均降价20%，以吸引业务。然而，电信市场份额增长的结构性原因并不能通过降价来解决。分析师最近对阿里巴巴的估值持乐观态度。然而，由于已经存在的挑战，以及认识到即使是其主要增长引擎也并不坚实，以及更强大且通常更便宜的投资选择的可用性，我回到了中立。阿里巴巴的估值极具吸引力，EV/EBITDA为3.0倍，市盈率为8.3倍，EV/FCF为4-5倍，这对于阿里巴巴这样的领先者来说确实太低了，但前提是它仍然是领先者。考虑到它所面临的挑战，阿里巴巴确实存在失去这种领导地位的风险（在云领域——它可能已经失去了这种领导地位，而且随着时间的推移，可能波及电子商务领域）。在某种程度上，我们可以说阿里巴巴的净利润可能相对被低估了，因此市盈率可能相对被高估了（即使如此低）。我的意思是“相对”，就像“与其他人相比”一样。其他包括微软、亚马逊或谷歌。请注意，我并不是说阿里巴巴的市盈率低于其他公司。这是显而易见的。我的意思是，即使“较低”的市盈率仍然略微低估了真正的差异。在过去的几年里，微软、亚马逊和谷歌都延长了他们的服务器和网络设备折旧计划。现在，他们的服务器都在六年内折旧。然而，阿里巴巴的服务器折旧期限为3-5年（可能为5年）。这意味着，在相同水平的投资下，与阿里巴巴相比，微软、亚马逊和谷歌现在的折旧率更低，营业利润和净利润更高。这是相关的，因为阿里巴巴、亚马逊、微软和谷歌都是大型云运营商。微软的影响似乎约为净利润的5%-7%，而亚马逊的影响可能更大（考虑到它是最大的云运营商）。除了阿里巴巴在云部门和电子商务部门面临的挑战之外，我现在认为阿里巴巴目前的增长引擎速卖通可能不可持续或导致更高的部门损失。原因是认识到，对于需要保修服务的商品，速卖通现有的模式不具备竞争力——因此，要么导致客户流失/流失，要么必须修改模式，导致成本更高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":271836402724904,"gmtCreate":1707404074356,"gmtModify":1707404076121,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271836402724904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":267982491107592,"gmtCreate":1706449882816,"gmtModify":1706449884752,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"作者，淘宝亚马逊很差吗？说了这么多年，也不见国内的汽车芯片产业起来，就一吹牛，博眼球，此庸人也","listText":"作者，淘宝亚马逊很差吗？说了这么多年，也不见国内的汽车芯片产业起来，就一吹牛，博眼球，此庸人也","text":"作者，淘宝亚马逊很差吗？说了这么多年，也不见国内的汽车芯片产业起来，就一吹牛，博眼球，此庸人也","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/267982491107592","repostId":"2406962203","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2406962203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1706230275,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2406962203?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-26 08:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"三十岁的亚马逊，遭遇淘宝式困境","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2406962203","media":"中国家电网","summary":"2024年，对亚马逊而言，意味深长。尽管如此，亚马逊依然不敢言笑。这意味着，而立之年，亚马逊遭遇“围猎”。一次又一次的迭代，令亚马逊再度成为华尔街的“座上宾”。不承想，这个期许亚马逊始终未能达到。更为严重的是，亚马逊不但一度被“万亿美元俱乐部”出名，更是一度市值缩水超过一万亿美元，与苹果、微软的市值越拉越大。2023年第三季度，亚马逊的营业收入为1430.83亿美元，同比增长12.57%;净利润为98.79亿美元，同比暴涨243.98%。","content":"<html><body><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">2024年，对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>而言，意味深长。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">成立于1994年的亚马逊，起初不过是一家图书电商平台，后迭代为全球市值最高的综合电商平台，好不风光。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">尽管如此，亚马逊依然不敢言笑。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">当下，跨境电商“四小龙”不但在全球舞台上锋芒毕露，更是策马加鞭般追赶，一场新旧势力的正面较量在所难免。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">这意味着，而立之年，亚马逊遭遇“围猎”。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">　01 不断迭代，不断自我救赎</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">“今天依然是‘第一天’!”</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">这是亚马逊创始人贝索斯的座右铭，也是亚马逊三十年来的成长缩影。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">1994年，31岁的贝索斯创立了亚马逊网站，在线销售正版图书，亏得不要不要的，但在那个科技泡沫年代，这并不是一个问题，只要是.com就OK，1997年上市至1998年底其股票价格暴涨了23倍，令人瞠目结舌。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">华尔街一端连着天堂，另一端连着地狱。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">1999年，互联网泡沫破灭无数财富化为尘土，无数公司被贴上“骗子”的标签，所幸亚马逊成功进行了自我救赎。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">从网上书店到零售平台，从Kindle电子书阅读器到智能硬件，从云计算到大模型……</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">一次又一次的迭代，令亚马逊再度成为华尔街的“座上宾”。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">曾几何时，华尔街津津乐道的是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>与亚马逊，这“三巨头”谁能拔得头筹，率先叩开两万亿美元市值的大门。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">不承想，这个期许亚马逊始终未能达到。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">2021年7月，亚马逊市值触及1.88万亿美元的历史高点，之后一路下滑，2022年堪称其“水逆之年”，全年前复权的年度跌幅高达49.62%，结束了七年涨的辉煌历史。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">更为严重的是，亚马逊不但一度被“万亿美元俱乐部”出名，更是一度市值缩水超过一万亿美元，与苹果、微软的市值越拉越大。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">此背景下，降本增效成为亚马逊的关键词。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">据Layoffs.fyi的数据显示，亚马逊是海外科技公司裁员力度最狠的公司，2022年11月裁员10000人，2023年1月裁员8000人，3月裁员9000人，短短数月合计裁员2.7万人，打破了硅谷的历史记录。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">于是乎，亚马逊的业绩又好了起来。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">2023年第三季度，亚马逊的营业收入为1430.83亿美元，同比增长12.57%;净利润为98.79亿美元，同比暴涨243.98%。</p><div><div><div><div><div><div>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"360\" src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20240126/640/w1080h360/20240126/6be2-e44f39b97072f283e2e1d65f91ec0970.jpg/w700d1q75cms.jpg?by=cms_fixed_width\" w=\"1080\"/>\n<h2></h2>\n</figure>\n<span></span></div><span></span></div><span></span></div><span></span></div><span></span></div><span>亚马逊的净利润重回增长(单位：美元)</span></div><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">华尔街投行奥本海默表示：“亚马逊的市值已经超过1.5万亿美元，因为它一直专注于削减成本，提升人工智能，并可能通过云计算AWS渡过难关。”</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">　02 淘宝的困境，也成了亚马逊的难题</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">需要注意的是，亚马逊的业绩虽然重返高增长，但依然不能高枕无忧。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">一方面，与淘宝的困境一致。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">在国内，电商市场从“红海”走向“血海”，出海成为行业的共识，加码之下成绩也可圈可点，Temu、SHEIN、Tiktok Shop与AliExpress，被称为跨境电商“四小龙”，成为中国电商出海的主力军。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">譬如，Temu为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>的海外版，2022年9月出海就引起全球的轰动，连续数月霸榜App Store、Google Play的免费下载榜。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">据《2023年中国跨境电商平台出海白皮书》显示，AliExpress、SHEIN、Tiktok Shop与Temu的月均访问量分别为5.3亿次、1.9亿次、0.7亿次和1亿次。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">虽然，跨境电商“四小龙”与亚马逊还有不小的差距，但成长速度却令后者心惊肉跳。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">据data.ai的数据显示，2023年10月，亚马逊全球用户数量同比增长4%，而Temu和SHEIN加起来猛增至2.6倍;这两款应用在美国的新增下载量达到亚马逊的近5倍。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">须知，美国是亚马逊的最大市场。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">冲击之下，亚马逊2023年10月在美国的用户数量同比下降了8%，使用时间同比减少20%，基本面遭受蚕食肉眼可见。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">这与淘宝当下的困境如出一辙。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">一名市场人士告诉锌刻度：“按理说，亚马逊应该主动出击争夺商家与用户，为了业绩好看却上调了旺季FBA配送费用、旺季仓储费、广告投放费用等，白白便宜了竞争对手。”</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"535\" src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20240126/370/w635h535/20240126/0ab4-91022ccd214f3396a09b50937bf00c14.jpg/w700d1q75cms.jpg?by=cms_fixed_width\" w=\"635\"/>\n<h2></h2>\n</figure>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">亚马逊乃美股“七姐妹”之一</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">另外一方面，转型电商新形态不顺。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">虽然淘宝被拼多多压着打，连头都抬不起，好歹在直播与种草等电商新形态中还占据一席之地，而亚马逊却几乎没有什么拿得出手。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">譬如，亚马逊堪其实是直播电商的第一批玩家，早在2016年就推出Amazon Live，却直到2019年才重视起来，为此倾斜了不少资源，但一直不见起色，迄今为止依然处于行业的边缘状态。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">一名私募人士告诉锌刻度：“全球消费者的口味各不同，有的注重品牌可信度、有的青睐商品性价比、有的依赖主播的个人魅力，有的看重互动娱乐性……再叠加思维不同、习俗不同、文化不同等营收，加大了海外的直播带货的难度。”</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">如此一来，亚马逊不再“性感”。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">事实上，为了挽回颓势亚马逊也做了许多努力，近期与Meta、Snap达成合作共谋社交购物，即允许Facebook、Instagram、Snapchat用户在社交媒体直接购买亚马逊的商品，从而获得新的流量入口。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">上述措施的实际效果有待观察，但跨境电商“四小龙”改写亚马逊一家独大的格局的趋势或不会改变。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">毕竟，淘宝也是这么走上下坡路的。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">03 跨境电商起势，背后有何依仗?</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">攻入亚马逊的腹地，跨境电商“四小龙”的确有两把刷子。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">首先，打法新颖</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">跨境电商“四小龙”虽然都偏爱低价策略，但侧重各有不同，令亚马逊应接不暇，也难以放下身段与之应战。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">以Temu为例，其策略为“Team Up，Price Down”，与“拼得多，省得多”有异曲同工之妙，走的是低价跑量、裂变营销路线，邀请新人注册、接受老用户邀请等都可以实打实获得不同数额的美元。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">毫不夸张地说，拼多多的“砍一刀”也成功征服了海外用户。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">其次，供应链完善</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">电商的价格之争，其实就是供应链之争，比拼的是平台对供应链掌控深度，如此才赢得了海外消费者的信任。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">以SHEIN为例，在时尚和服装类网站的网络访问量排名世界第一，主打的是上新快、品类多、迭代狠、价格低，无一不是供应链加持的结果。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">“高效的物流和易于使用的应用开发能力相得益彰，能够直接与海外消费者接触。”伊藤忠综研主任研究员赵玮琳在谈到中国电商时表示，“正在迎合追求更廉价产品的美国国内消费者的需求”。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">　再次，俘获年轻人</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">TikTok不但成为全球短视频巨头，更是成为全球年轻人的“心头好”，令亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、Meta等全球互联网巨头坐立难安。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"484\" src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20240126/156/w472h484/20240126/35ed-6f752600b6dfd72fe7215fa0e55deb33.jpg/w700d1q75cms.jpg?by=cms_fixed_width\" w=\"472\"/>\n<h2></h2>\n</figure>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">TikTok成为全球年轻人的“心头好”</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">据Apptopia的数据显示，2022年，TikTok以6.27亿的下载量再次夺下全球应用程序下载冠军宝座，且总下载量已达到30亿次。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">流量变现，一直是TikTok的核心诉求，而电商被公认为流量变现的最佳途径之一，于是2021年2月在印尼上线了TikTok Shop，开启了海外流量变现之旅。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">如此一来，亚马逊与TikTok的矛盾不可调和，与TikTok Shop争斗年轻人不占优势。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">总而言之，亚马逊成立三十年，与苹果、谷歌、微软、Meta、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>并列美股“七姐妹”，但在跨境电商“四小龙”的冲击之下，有了不确定性。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L isIntable \">毕竟，淘宝的“今日”，或是亚马逊的“明日”。</p>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/>\n</div>\n</body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>三十岁的亚马逊，遭遇淘宝式困境</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n三十岁的亚马逊，遭遇淘宝式困境\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-26 08:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.sina.cn/digi/elec/2024-01-26/detail-inaevhph0319120.d.html?vt=4><strong>中国家电网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2024年，对亚马逊而言，意味深长。成立于1994年的亚马逊，起初不过是一家图书电商平台，后迭代为全球市值最高的综合电商平台，好不风光。尽管如此，亚马逊依然不敢言笑。当下，跨境电商“四小龙”不但在全球舞台上锋芒毕露，更是策马加鞭般追赶，一场新旧势力的正面较量在所难免。这意味着，而立之年，亚马逊遭遇“围猎”。　01 不断迭代，不断自我救赎“今天依然是‘第一天’!”这是亚马逊创始人贝索斯的座右铭，也是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/digi/elec/2024-01-26/detail-inaevhph0319120.d.html?vt=4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20240126/640/w1080h360/20240126/6be2-e44f39b97072f283e2e1d65f91ec0970.jpg/w120h90l50t14f9.jpg","relate_stocks":{"89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4588":"碎股","LU0293314216.USD":"ALLIANZ GEM EQUITY HIGH DIVIDEND 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RA USD","LU0320764755.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Asian Growth A Acc SGD","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/digi/elec/2024-01-26/detail-inaevhph0319120.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2406962203","content_text":"2024年，对亚马逊而言，意味深长。成立于1994年的亚马逊，起初不过是一家图书电商平台，后迭代为全球市值最高的综合电商平台，好不风光。尽管如此，亚马逊依然不敢言笑。当下，跨境电商“四小龙”不但在全球舞台上锋芒毕露，更是策马加鞭般追赶，一场新旧势力的正面较量在所难免。这意味着，而立之年，亚马逊遭遇“围猎”。　01 不断迭代，不断自我救赎“今天依然是‘第一天’!”这是亚马逊创始人贝索斯的座右铭，也是亚马逊三十年来的成长缩影。1994年，31岁的贝索斯创立了亚马逊网站，在线销售正版图书，亏得不要不要的，但在那个科技泡沫年代，这并不是一个问题，只要是.com就OK，1997年上市至1998年底其股票价格暴涨了23倍，令人瞠目结舌。华尔街一端连着天堂，另一端连着地狱。1999年，互联网泡沫破灭无数财富化为尘土，无数公司被贴上“骗子”的标签，所幸亚马逊成功进行了自我救赎。从网上书店到零售平台，从Kindle电子书阅读器到智能硬件，从云计算到大模型……一次又一次的迭代，令亚马逊再度成为华尔街的“座上宾”。曾几何时，华尔街津津乐道的是，苹果、微软与亚马逊，这“三巨头”谁能拔得头筹，率先叩开两万亿美元市值的大门。不承想，这个期许亚马逊始终未能达到。2021年7月，亚马逊市值触及1.88万亿美元的历史高点，之后一路下滑，2022年堪称其“水逆之年”，全年前复权的年度跌幅高达49.62%，结束了七年涨的辉煌历史。更为严重的是，亚马逊不但一度被“万亿美元俱乐部”出名，更是一度市值缩水超过一万亿美元，与苹果、微软的市值越拉越大。此背景下，降本增效成为亚马逊的关键词。据Layoffs.fyi的数据显示，亚马逊是海外科技公司裁员力度最狠的公司，2022年11月裁员10000人，2023年1月裁员8000人，3月裁员9000人，短短数月合计裁员2.7万人，打破了硅谷的历史记录。于是乎，亚马逊的业绩又好了起来。2023年第三季度，亚马逊的营业收入为1430.83亿美元，同比增长12.57%;净利润为98.79亿美元，同比暴涨243.98%。\n\n\n\n\n亚马逊的净利润重回增长(单位：美元)华尔街投行奥本海默表示：“亚马逊的市值已经超过1.5万亿美元，因为它一直专注于削减成本，提升人工智能，并可能通过云计算AWS渡过难关。”　02 淘宝的困境，也成了亚马逊的难题需要注意的是，亚马逊的业绩虽然重返高增长，但依然不能高枕无忧。一方面，与淘宝的困境一致。在国内，电商市场从“红海”走向“血海”，出海成为行业的共识，加码之下成绩也可圈可点，Temu、SHEIN、Tiktok Shop与AliExpress，被称为跨境电商“四小龙”，成为中国电商出海的主力军。譬如，Temu为拼多多的海外版，2022年9月出海就引起全球的轰动，连续数月霸榜App Store、Google Play的免费下载榜。据《2023年中国跨境电商平台出海白皮书》显示，AliExpress、SHEIN、Tiktok Shop与Temu的月均访问量分别为5.3亿次、1.9亿次、0.7亿次和1亿次。虽然，跨境电商“四小龙”与亚马逊还有不小的差距，但成长速度却令后者心惊肉跳。据data.ai的数据显示，2023年10月，亚马逊全球用户数量同比增长4%，而Temu和SHEIN加起来猛增至2.6倍;这两款应用在美国的新增下载量达到亚马逊的近5倍。须知，美国是亚马逊的最大市场。冲击之下，亚马逊2023年10月在美国的用户数量同比下降了8%，使用时间同比减少20%，基本面遭受蚕食肉眼可见。这与淘宝当下的困境如出一辙。一名市场人士告诉锌刻度：“按理说，亚马逊应该主动出击争夺商家与用户，为了业绩好看却上调了旺季FBA配送费用、旺季仓储费、广告投放费用等，白白便宜了竞争对手。”\n\n\n\n\n亚马逊乃美股“七姐妹”之一另外一方面，转型电商新形态不顺。虽然淘宝被拼多多压着打，连头都抬不起，好歹在直播与种草等电商新形态中还占据一席之地，而亚马逊却几乎没有什么拿得出手。譬如，亚马逊堪其实是直播电商的第一批玩家，早在2016年就推出Amazon Live，却直到2019年才重视起来，为此倾斜了不少资源，但一直不见起色，迄今为止依然处于行业的边缘状态。一名私募人士告诉锌刻度：“全球消费者的口味各不同，有的注重品牌可信度、有的青睐商品性价比、有的依赖主播的个人魅力，有的看重互动娱乐性……再叠加思维不同、习俗不同、文化不同等营收，加大了海外的直播带货的难度。”如此一来，亚马逊不再“性感”。事实上，为了挽回颓势亚马逊也做了许多努力，近期与Meta、Snap达成合作共谋社交购物，即允许Facebook、Instagram、Snapchat用户在社交媒体直接购买亚马逊的商品，从而获得新的流量入口。上述措施的实际效果有待观察，但跨境电商“四小龙”改写亚马逊一家独大的格局的趋势或不会改变。毕竟，淘宝也是这么走上下坡路的。03 跨境电商起势，背后有何依仗?攻入亚马逊的腹地，跨境电商“四小龙”的确有两把刷子。首先，打法新颖跨境电商“四小龙”虽然都偏爱低价策略，但侧重各有不同，令亚马逊应接不暇，也难以放下身段与之应战。以Temu为例，其策略为“Team Up，Price Down”，与“拼得多，省得多”有异曲同工之妙，走的是低价跑量、裂变营销路线，邀请新人注册、接受老用户邀请等都可以实打实获得不同数额的美元。毫不夸张地说，拼多多的“砍一刀”也成功征服了海外用户。其次，供应链完善电商的价格之争，其实就是供应链之争，比拼的是平台对供应链掌控深度，如此才赢得了海外消费者的信任。以SHEIN为例，在时尚和服装类网站的网络访问量排名世界第一，主打的是上新快、品类多、迭代狠、价格低，无一不是供应链加持的结果。“高效的物流和易于使用的应用开发能力相得益彰，能够直接与海外消费者接触。”伊藤忠综研主任研究员赵玮琳在谈到中国电商时表示，“正在迎合追求更廉价产品的美国国内消费者的需求”。　再次，俘获年轻人TikTok不但成为全球短视频巨头，更是成为全球年轻人的“心头好”，令亚马逊、谷歌、Meta等全球互联网巨头坐立难安。\n\n\n\n\nTikTok成为全球年轻人的“心头好”据Apptopia的数据显示，2022年，TikTok以6.27亿的下载量再次夺下全球应用程序下载冠军宝座，且总下载量已达到30亿次。流量变现，一直是TikTok的核心诉求，而电商被公认为流量变现的最佳途径之一，于是2021年2月在印尼上线了TikTok Shop，开启了海外流量变现之旅。如此一来，亚马逊与TikTok的矛盾不可调和，与TikTok Shop争斗年轻人不占优势。总而言之，亚马逊成立三十年，与苹果、谷歌、微软、Meta、特斯拉、英伟达并列美股“七姐妹”，但在跨境电商“四小龙”的冲击之下，有了不确定性。毕竟，淘宝的“今日”，或是亚马逊的“明日”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":261515132539136,"gmtCreate":1704856628672,"gmtModify":1704856630534,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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21:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"对英伟达出手，真正的狠招还在后头","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2490169010","media":"围观商业评论","summary":"英伟达这张牌被打了出去，而真正的好戏，还在后头。对中国来说，英伟达这张牌至少在目前，打得稳赚不赔。依据美国政府禁令，英伟达只能向中国出售“阉割版”显卡，但这意味着它违反了2020年时的三个限制条件，已经适用中国的《反垄断法》。届时，英伟达将面临：没收违法所得，并处上一年度销售额1%以上10%以下的罚款。摆在英伟达面前的，是实实在在的“留”还是“不留”在中国市场的问题。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220818633v163jy12mvkx057\"/><p><strong>作者 | 围观群众</strong></p><p>被全世界针对是什么体验？</p><p>从今年2月算起，全球各大主要经济体轮番调查<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>垄断，东西方无比一致，英伟达仿佛一夜之间成了文明世界的靶子。为什么？</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220830359v163ov7lsczirva\"/><p><strong>尤其是，中国突然下场，着实反常。</strong></p><p>须知就在上个月，商务部副部长王受文还在北京见了英伟达高管杰伊·普瑞，<strong>表示欢迎英伟达在华发展；</strong></p><p>中国85%的算卡与英伟达相关，后者算是名副其实的产业核心；</p><p>包括BAT、字节在内的诸多中国AI公司和中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车产业，都高度依赖英伟达的芯片。</p><p>表面上看，英伟达被端上了中美欧的餐桌，<strong>但吃席各方其实都是醉翁之意不在酒。</strong></p><p>英伟达这张牌被打了出去，而真正的好戏，还在后头。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220830719v1631uo13aqaup5\"/><p>在拆解这出大戏之前，有必要先科普一些背景常识。</p><p>2020年，英伟达成功收购以色列公司迈络思（Mellanox），将后者的以太网传输业务改组为自己旗下的Nvidia Networking。由于两家在各自领域都处于市场垄断地位，彼时作为最大市场的中国对这起收购案给出了三个主要的附加限制性条件：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220832157v1633ubm3vsar3b\"/><p>（一）向中国市场销售英伟达GPU加速器与迈络思高速网络互联设备时，不得以任何方式强制进行搭售，或者附加任何其他不合理的交易条件；不得阻碍或限制客户单独购买或使用上述产品；不得在服务水平、价格、软件功能等方面歧视单独购买上述产品的客户。</p><p>（二）依据公平、合理、无歧视原则向中国市场继续供应英伟达GPU加速器、迈络思高速网络互联设备和相关软件、配件。</p><p>（三）继续保证英伟达GPU加速器与第三方网络互联设备、迈络思高速网络互联设备与第三方加速器的互操作性。</p><p>2022年10月7日，美国商务部通过法案，限制中国企业获取高性能芯片和计算机。为了绕开法案，英伟达降低了部分芯片性能，作为“特供版”继续出口中国。</p><p>2023年10月，美国商务部进一步升级了禁令，英伟达的A100、H100芯片被禁售。目前，在AI算力研发和部署上，这两款芯片仍是最合适的选择。</p><p>原因或许无奈，<strong>但最早在2年前，英伟达就已经违反了上述限制条件，也是板上钉钉的事实。</strong></p><p>而英伟达能吸引全世界为敌，则是因为其业务版图实在过于庞大。</p><p>Jon Peddie Research（JPR）数据显示，<strong>英伟达在独立或集成显卡上的市场份额已经连续十年保持在80%左右；</strong></p><p>2023年，在包含GPU等公开销售产品以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等云服务商自研加速器在内的整体AI市场，英伟达拿下了85%的市场份额；</p><p>而<strong>在全球AI训练领域，英伟达拥有超过95%的市占率，</strong>你听过的几乎所有AI模型，全都是用英伟达的显卡训练出来的。黄仁勋那句<strong>“我们是AI的世界引擎”</strong>毫不夸张。</p><p>坐拥如此令人瞠目结舌的市场份额，同时还拥有成套的软硬件AI产品，英伟达在大多数人眼中无疑已经具备垄断地位。但必须指出的是，在自由经济市场，<strong>垄断本身并不违法，违法的是利用垄断优势打压竞争，损害消费者权益。</strong></p><p>但到底有没有不公平竞争，其实也是笔“糊涂账”。</p><p>举个例子，英伟达当前涉嫌违法的最主要焦点是“搭售协议”，也就是在只有当客户购买其他产品（比如网络设备）时，才会获得英伟达芯片购买的优先权。毕竟英伟达曾公开承认，会优先将芯片提供给那些“最有可能快速使用该产品的客户”。</p><p>但你很难说这种表态就是在扰乱市场，毕竟英伟达在显卡生态上的完善，使得自家显卡搭配NVLink的确能最大程度地发挥算力性能。<strong>更何况它并没有逼客户买，客户仍有选择其他芯片系统的权力。</strong></p><p>尽管AI芯片制造商Tenstorrent的首席执行官吉姆·凯勒今年8月在接受《The Information》采访时表示，这种<span>技术优势</span>常让客户“感觉有一股压力推着自己不得不购买英伟达的网络设备，觉得只有这样才能保证自己能买到该公司备受追捧的服务器芯片”，<strong>但拥有技术优势本身并不违法。</strong></p><p>因而对中国而言，如果真要反垄断，完全可以在2年前开始。而对欧美而言，似乎也并未抓到英伟达凭借垄断地位不当竞争的实锤。</p><p>所以，<strong>“反垄断”只是为打出这张牌找个借口，中美欧选择在这个时间点动手，只能说明在英伟达身上看到了各自更大的机会。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220833101v163yw0bz99ewxw\"/><p>对中国来说，英伟达这张牌至少在目前，打得稳赚不赔。</p><p><strong>一方面，我们给英伟达出了道选择题。</strong></p><p>依据美国政府禁令，英伟达只能向中国出售“阉割版”显卡，但这意味着它违反了2020年时的三个限制条件，已经适用中国的《反垄断法》。</p><p>届时，英伟达将面临：</p><p>没收违法所得，并处上一年度销售额1%以上10%以下的罚款（第五十六条、五十七条）。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220839282v163x3jyywuy5mj\"/><p>或者，情节特别严重的话，可以处以上述数额二倍以上五倍以下的罚款（第六十三条）。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220839870v163aas0rcrus3a\"/><p>2024财年，英伟达在中国区的营收为104亿美元，换言之，罚款最低（1%）大概1亿美刀多一点，<strong>最高可以去到销售收入的50%，也即52亿美元。</strong></p><p>所以，如果调查坐实了英伟达垄断市场，且依据的是第63条法令的话，那它每年要交最多52亿美元的罚金——<strong>占2024财年<span>净利润</span>（297.6亿）的17.5%。</strong></p><p><strong>不要觉得这不算多，这只是在中国一家交的罚款。</strong></p><p>那这还做啥生意？</p><p>摆在英伟达面前的，是实实在在的“留”还是“不留”在中国市场的问题。而对中国政府来说，“留”则每年能获得一笔额外收入，“不留”也能为国内显卡生态腾出独立发展空间。</p><p>但这还不是最深远的。</p><p><strong>最深远的是，通过对英伟达动手，中国给美股也出了道难题。</strong></p><p>11月19日开始，受美国政府换届的利好预期推动，道指一路飙涨，11月29日站上44910点的历史高位。此后至今却一直横盘震荡，纳斯达克100指数也从12月4日开始震荡。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220845405v163hb4oxl5xr7w\"/><p><strong>这足以说明市场情绪开始由乐观转向迟疑。</strong></p><p>事实上，从今年年初至今，唱衰美股的声音就不绝于耳。</p><p>主要原因在于，以“科技股七姐妹”（M7）领涨的这波行情，主要得益于AI行业的发展，但行业本身究竟有多少前景，落地难度还有多大，仍存在不确定性。加上科技股涨势过快且过于集中，泡沫越吹越大，总有破裂的一天。</p><p>而纵观历史，美股的转折点往往具备三个因素：</p><p><strong>泡沫膨胀，市场脆弱度提升，外部事件冲击。</strong></p><p>先说外部事件冲击。</p><p>你也许已经注意到了，对英伟达动手的时机堪称微妙——恰逢美国政府换届、全球芯片行业动荡之际。</p><p><strong>但很多人都没有意识到，对美股来说，2025年也将是自1920年以来最特殊的一年——它将是产业泡沫（AI）与政策转向对撞的第一年。</strong></p><p>历史证明，<strong>这两个因素中的任何一个都可能导致美股剧烈波动，如今两者叠加，堪比过山装上了涡轮增压，带给市场的波动性也许将是空前的。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220846159v163djnscn1ppl0\"/><p>如果下届政府兑现承诺，那么美国将迎来里根政府以来最大规模的政策宽松，1930年斯穆特·霍利法案以来最大的关税上调，以及美国历史上最大规模的非法移民遣返。</p><p>政策向扩张的急转往往能在短时间内带来非理性繁荣，市场理性回归后，随之而来的便是大回调（甚至萧条）。1929、1987和2000年初莫不如是。</p><p>这相当于给市场烧了把火，氛围烘托到位了。</p><p>再说市场脆弱度。</p><p>所谓脆弱性，可以理解成原有市场均衡被打破后，股市具备持续下跌和上涨的“惯性”。它是任何资本市场都具备的内在特性。</p><p>但脆弱性提升并非好事，这意味着市场自身调节能力减弱，更容易受到外部因素的影响，投机性急剧扩大，急涨急跌。</p><p>美国银行研究显示，美股美股单只股票的脆弱性创下历史记录，标普前50大成分股平均脆弱性事件的幅度（衡量一次外部事件冲击影响的剧烈程度）<strong>跳升至三十年来最高水平，甚至高于2008年前后。</strong>属于情绪也到位了。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220846958v163162avrydvf2\"/><p>最后说泡沫。</p><p>从ChatGPT启动最新AI繁荣以来仅仅两年，纳指100已经上涨了85%，“科技股七姐妹”更是上涨了200%。</p><p>再迅猛的涨势，也有迟疑的一天。当前，科技股面临双重压力。</p><p>其一是技术落地进展。即便是如桥水基金创始人达利欧这样，认为当前美股泡沫仅为“中等水平”的乐观主义者，也<strong>不得不承认如果“科技股七姐妹”在人工智能层面的进展不及预期，其价格仍有大幅调整空间。</strong></p><p>其二则是业绩。</p><p>时间拨回2000年，彼时一家科技股的暴跌，让市场胆战心惊。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>（Cisco）。</strong></p><p>思科股价到达顶峰之际，其市盈率一度超过了100倍。这种显著脱离基本面的狂热走势，在市场情绪转向之际再难持续，股价宛如跳楼般狂跌。当年4月暴跌7成，10月再跌9成，至今也没缓过劲来。</p><p>事实上，英伟达的股价走势与思科高度重合，很难不让人产生联想。</p><p>两者最大的不同点，在于英伟达市盈率为27倍。</p><p>这意味着即便它的市值膨胀了近10倍，它的业绩也同步增长，提供了支撑。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220847914v163hyxaojnvtb1\"/><p>英伟达和泡沫时期思科的股价走势基本重叠（图左）；英伟达市盈率显著低于泡沫时期的思科（图右）</p><p><strong>换言之，能让市场相信英伟达不会重蹈思科覆辙的，就是它的业绩。</strong>而其业绩的一大支柱是中国市场。今年前三季度，中国市场的营收占比接近13%。</p><p><strong>试想，如果英伟达在中国的业务受阻，业绩失去支撑之后，其股价走势会如何？</strong></p><p>要知道，市场对英伟达的业绩表现要求始终都是苛刻的，达成分析师预期远远不够，必须超过分析师的最乐观预期才算合格。过去数次财报发布后的股价表现已经证明了这一点。</p><p><strong>作为AI概念的头号受益人，难以满足市场预期的英伟达，又将引发何种连锁反应？</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220848334v1639ln6uryt6ih\"/><p>至于欧美，尤其是美国的目的，用三个字就能概括：</p><p><strong>安全感。</strong></p><p>在半导体这样一个技术密集型行业，有技术壁垒再正常不过，具备类似英伟达市场垄断地位的公司并不罕见：</p><p><strong>比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>（ASML）。</strong></p><p>作为全球最大、最先进的光刻机制造商，阿斯麦算是掌握了全球最大的半导体公司们的命脉，不管是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的智能手机还是英伟达的人工智能加速器，都离不开它。2023年，阿斯麦在全球光刻行业拥有94.2%的市场份额，在最先进的EUV光刻机这一块，更是掌握整个市场，除此一家，别无分店。</p><p>因而它的价格高到飞起。今年4月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>高级副总裁Kevin Zhang在参加一个技术研讨会时表示，“我喜欢High NA EUV的功能，但我不喜欢它的标价。”（I like the high-NA EUV’s capability, but I don’t like the sticker price.）</p><p>High NA EUV是阿斯麦最新的光刻机，单价3.5亿欧元（约合3.8亿美元），差不多能买1.5架<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>787“梦想客机”。</p><p><strong>但神奇的是，阿斯麦几乎从未被反垄断调查过。</strong></p><p>诚然，这与光刻机的工业特性有关，它只能用于制造芯片，产业价值高度依赖美国的芯片产业链，缺乏单独制裁的必要。</p><p><strong>但更重要的原因，是身份认同上的差异。</strong></p><p>阿斯麦现任CEO克里斯托弗·富凯是法国人，前任彼得·温宁克是荷兰人，从长相到文化认知，都能轻松被欧美圈子接纳。</p><p>黄仁勋就不一样了。他虽然成长于基督教家庭，就读于教会学校，上世纪80年代在美国白人黄金时代娶到中产白女，生下一对White-Passing长相儿女的“模范小黄人”，但毕竟不是白人。</p><p>“非我族类，其心必异”的原则，放诸四海皆准。</p><p>对欧美政客来说，一家由亚裔、黄种人掌权的企业本身就是不安全的，更何况这家企业还牢牢把持着下一代芯片和人工智能的发展命脉。把黄仁勋关进局子，<strong>让一个真正的“自己人”接管英伟达的说法，在欧美从来不缺市场。</strong></p><p>大国角力之际，饶是英伟达，也只能夹缝求生。</p><p>参考：</p><p>英伟达为何被反垄断立案调查？财富</p><p>英伟达激进销售策略引起美国司法部关注，财富</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220848698v163399vps71ppv\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220849388v1634n8hz08mmwf\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220850605v163xc0ebbz09ky\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220852639v163a9yz25njda0\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220858610v163xs5icptrqed\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220859256v163hndlqvasn4v\"/><p>本文中所有涉及上市公司的内容，系依据上市公司根据其法定义务及监管要求公开披露的信息（包括但不限于官方网站、官方社媒、定期或临时披露的官方公告等）做出的分析与判断，不构成任何投资建议或其他商业建议。</p><p>本文中所有涉及商业人物的内容，系依据合法渠道公开披露的信息（包括但不限于媒体采访、人物传记等）做出的分析与判断，不构成任何投资建议或其他建议。</p><p>因采纳本文，或受本文影响而采取的行为及其导致的相应后果，围观商业不承担任何责任。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对英伟达出手，真正的狠招还在后头</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对英伟达出手，真正的狠招还在后头\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-10 21:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241210220902ab6ceafe&s=b><strong>围观商业评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | 围观群众被全世界针对是什么体验？从今年2月算起，全球各大主要经济体轮番调查英伟达垄断，东西方无比一致，英伟达仿佛一夜之间成了文明世界的靶子。为什么？尤其是，中国突然下场，着实反常。须知就在上个月，商务部副部长王受文还在北京见了英伟达高管杰伊·普瑞，表示欢迎英伟达在华发展；中国85%的算卡与英伟达相关，后者算是名副其实的产业核心；包括BAT、字节在内的诸多中国AI公司和中国新能源汽车产业，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241210220902ab6ceafe&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU1069344957.HKD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2083900584.USD":"HSBC GIF US INCOME FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU2065169927.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVD":"GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily 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Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241210220902ab6ceafe&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2490169010","content_text":"作者 | 围观群众被全世界针对是什么体验？从今年2月算起，全球各大主要经济体轮番调查英伟达垄断，东西方无比一致，英伟达仿佛一夜之间成了文明世界的靶子。为什么？尤其是，中国突然下场，着实反常。须知就在上个月，商务部副部长王受文还在北京见了英伟达高管杰伊·普瑞，表示欢迎英伟达在华发展；中国85%的算卡与英伟达相关，后者算是名副其实的产业核心；包括BAT、字节在内的诸多中国AI公司和中国新能源汽车产业，都高度依赖英伟达的芯片。表面上看，英伟达被端上了中美欧的餐桌，但吃席各方其实都是醉翁之意不在酒。英伟达这张牌被打了出去，而真正的好戏，还在后头。在拆解这出大戏之前，有必要先科普一些背景常识。2020年，英伟达成功收购以色列公司迈络思（Mellanox），将后者的以太网传输业务改组为自己旗下的Nvidia Networking。由于两家在各自领域都处于市场垄断地位，彼时作为最大市场的中国对这起收购案给出了三个主要的附加限制性条件：（一）向中国市场销售英伟达GPU加速器与迈络思高速网络互联设备时，不得以任何方式强制进行搭售，或者附加任何其他不合理的交易条件；不得阻碍或限制客户单独购买或使用上述产品；不得在服务水平、价格、软件功能等方面歧视单独购买上述产品的客户。（二）依据公平、合理、无歧视原则向中国市场继续供应英伟达GPU加速器、迈络思高速网络互联设备和相关软件、配件。（三）继续保证英伟达GPU加速器与第三方网络互联设备、迈络思高速网络互联设备与第三方加速器的互操作性。2022年10月7日，美国商务部通过法案，限制中国企业获取高性能芯片和计算机。为了绕开法案，英伟达降低了部分芯片性能，作为“特供版”继续出口中国。2023年10月，美国商务部进一步升级了禁令，英伟达的A100、H100芯片被禁售。目前，在AI算力研发和部署上，这两款芯片仍是最合适的选择。原因或许无奈，但最早在2年前，英伟达就已经违反了上述限制条件，也是板上钉钉的事实。而英伟达能吸引全世界为敌，则是因为其业务版图实在过于庞大。Jon Peddie Research（JPR）数据显示，英伟达在独立或集成显卡上的市场份额已经连续十年保持在80%左右；2023年，在包含GPU等公开销售产品以及谷歌、亚马逊等云服务商自研加速器在内的整体AI市场，英伟达拿下了85%的市场份额；而在全球AI训练领域，英伟达拥有超过95%的市占率，你听过的几乎所有AI模型，全都是用英伟达的显卡训练出来的。黄仁勋那句“我们是AI的世界引擎”毫不夸张。坐拥如此令人瞠目结舌的市场份额，同时还拥有成套的软硬件AI产品，英伟达在大多数人眼中无疑已经具备垄断地位。但必须指出的是，在自由经济市场，垄断本身并不违法，违法的是利用垄断优势打压竞争，损害消费者权益。但到底有没有不公平竞争，其实也是笔“糊涂账”。举个例子，英伟达当前涉嫌违法的最主要焦点是“搭售协议”，也就是在只有当客户购买其他产品（比如网络设备）时，才会获得英伟达芯片购买的优先权。毕竟英伟达曾公开承认，会优先将芯片提供给那些“最有可能快速使用该产品的客户”。但你很难说这种表态就是在扰乱市场，毕竟英伟达在显卡生态上的完善，使得自家显卡搭配NVLink的确能最大程度地发挥算力性能。更何况它并没有逼客户买，客户仍有选择其他芯片系统的权力。尽管AI芯片制造商Tenstorrent的首席执行官吉姆·凯勒今年8月在接受《The Information》采访时表示，这种技术优势常让客户“感觉有一股压力推着自己不得不购买英伟达的网络设备，觉得只有这样才能保证自己能买到该公司备受追捧的服务器芯片”，但拥有技术优势本身并不违法。因而对中国而言，如果真要反垄断，完全可以在2年前开始。而对欧美而言，似乎也并未抓到英伟达凭借垄断地位不当竞争的实锤。所以，“反垄断”只是为打出这张牌找个借口，中美欧选择在这个时间点动手，只能说明在英伟达身上看到了各自更大的机会。对中国来说，英伟达这张牌至少在目前，打得稳赚不赔。一方面，我们给英伟达出了道选择题。依据美国政府禁令，英伟达只能向中国出售“阉割版”显卡，但这意味着它违反了2020年时的三个限制条件，已经适用中国的《反垄断法》。届时，英伟达将面临：没收违法所得，并处上一年度销售额1%以上10%以下的罚款（第五十六条、五十七条）。或者，情节特别严重的话，可以处以上述数额二倍以上五倍以下的罚款（第六十三条）。2024财年，英伟达在中国区的营收为104亿美元，换言之，罚款最低（1%）大概1亿美刀多一点，最高可以去到销售收入的50%，也即52亿美元。所以，如果调查坐实了英伟达垄断市场，且依据的是第63条法令的话，那它每年要交最多52亿美元的罚金——占2024财年净利润（297.6亿）的17.5%。不要觉得这不算多，这只是在中国一家交的罚款。那这还做啥生意？摆在英伟达面前的，是实实在在的“留”还是“不留”在中国市场的问题。而对中国政府来说，“留”则每年能获得一笔额外收入，“不留”也能为国内显卡生态腾出独立发展空间。但这还不是最深远的。最深远的是，通过对英伟达动手，中国给美股也出了道难题。11月19日开始，受美国政府换届的利好预期推动，道指一路飙涨，11月29日站上44910点的历史高位。此后至今却一直横盘震荡，纳斯达克100指数也从12月4日开始震荡。这足以说明市场情绪开始由乐观转向迟疑。事实上，从今年年初至今，唱衰美股的声音就不绝于耳。主要原因在于，以“科技股七姐妹”（M7）领涨的这波行情，主要得益于AI行业的发展，但行业本身究竟有多少前景，落地难度还有多大，仍存在不确定性。加上科技股涨势过快且过于集中，泡沫越吹越大，总有破裂的一天。而纵观历史，美股的转折点往往具备三个因素：泡沫膨胀，市场脆弱度提升，外部事件冲击。先说外部事件冲击。你也许已经注意到了，对英伟达动手的时机堪称微妙——恰逢美国政府换届、全球芯片行业动荡之际。但很多人都没有意识到，对美股来说，2025年也将是自1920年以来最特殊的一年——它将是产业泡沫（AI）与政策转向对撞的第一年。历史证明，这两个因素中的任何一个都可能导致美股剧烈波动，如今两者叠加，堪比过山装上了涡轮增压，带给市场的波动性也许将是空前的。如果下届政府兑现承诺，那么美国将迎来里根政府以来最大规模的政策宽松，1930年斯穆特·霍利法案以来最大的关税上调，以及美国历史上最大规模的非法移民遣返。政策向扩张的急转往往能在短时间内带来非理性繁荣，市场理性回归后，随之而来的便是大回调（甚至萧条）。1929、1987和2000年初莫不如是。这相当于给市场烧了把火，氛围烘托到位了。再说市场脆弱度。所谓脆弱性，可以理解成原有市场均衡被打破后，股市具备持续下跌和上涨的“惯性”。它是任何资本市场都具备的内在特性。但脆弱性提升并非好事，这意味着市场自身调节能力减弱，更容易受到外部因素的影响，投机性急剧扩大，急涨急跌。美国银行研究显示，美股美股单只股票的脆弱性创下历史记录，标普前50大成分股平均脆弱性事件的幅度（衡量一次外部事件冲击影响的剧烈程度）跳升至三十年来最高水平，甚至高于2008年前后。属于情绪也到位了。最后说泡沫。从ChatGPT启动最新AI繁荣以来仅仅两年，纳指100已经上涨了85%，“科技股七姐妹”更是上涨了200%。再迅猛的涨势，也有迟疑的一天。当前，科技股面临双重压力。其一是技术落地进展。即便是如桥水基金创始人达利欧这样，认为当前美股泡沫仅为“中等水平”的乐观主义者，也不得不承认如果“科技股七姐妹”在人工智能层面的进展不及预期，其价格仍有大幅调整空间。其二则是业绩。时间拨回2000年，彼时一家科技股的暴跌，让市场胆战心惊。思科（Cisco）。思科股价到达顶峰之际，其市盈率一度超过了100倍。这种显著脱离基本面的狂热走势，在市场情绪转向之际再难持续，股价宛如跳楼般狂跌。当年4月暴跌7成，10月再跌9成，至今也没缓过劲来。事实上，英伟达的股价走势与思科高度重合，很难不让人产生联想。两者最大的不同点，在于英伟达市盈率为27倍。这意味着即便它的市值膨胀了近10倍，它的业绩也同步增长，提供了支撑。英伟达和泡沫时期思科的股价走势基本重叠（图左）；英伟达市盈率显著低于泡沫时期的思科（图右）换言之，能让市场相信英伟达不会重蹈思科覆辙的，就是它的业绩。而其业绩的一大支柱是中国市场。今年前三季度，中国市场的营收占比接近13%。试想，如果英伟达在中国的业务受阻，业绩失去支撑之后，其股价走势会如何？要知道，市场对英伟达的业绩表现要求始终都是苛刻的，达成分析师预期远远不够，必须超过分析师的最乐观预期才算合格。过去数次财报发布后的股价表现已经证明了这一点。作为AI概念的头号受益人，难以满足市场预期的英伟达，又将引发何种连锁反应？至于欧美，尤其是美国的目的，用三个字就能概括：安全感。在半导体这样一个技术密集型行业，有技术壁垒再正常不过，具备类似英伟达市场垄断地位的公司并不罕见：比如阿斯麦（ASML）。作为全球最大、最先进的光刻机制造商，阿斯麦算是掌握了全球最大的半导体公司们的命脉，不管是苹果的智能手机还是英伟达的人工智能加速器，都离不开它。2023年，阿斯麦在全球光刻行业拥有94.2%的市场份额，在最先进的EUV光刻机这一块，更是掌握整个市场，除此一家，别无分店。因而它的价格高到飞起。今年4月，台积电高级副总裁Kevin Zhang在参加一个技术研讨会时表示，“我喜欢High NA EUV的功能，但我不喜欢它的标价。”（I like the high-NA EUV’s capability, but I don’t like the sticker price.）High NA EUV是阿斯麦最新的光刻机，单价3.5亿欧元（约合3.8亿美元），差不多能买1.5架波音787“梦想客机”。但神奇的是，阿斯麦几乎从未被反垄断调查过。诚然，这与光刻机的工业特性有关，它只能用于制造芯片，产业价值高度依赖美国的芯片产业链，缺乏单独制裁的必要。但更重要的原因，是身份认同上的差异。阿斯麦现任CEO克里斯托弗·富凯是法国人，前任彼得·温宁克是荷兰人，从长相到文化认知，都能轻松被欧美圈子接纳。黄仁勋就不一样了。他虽然成长于基督教家庭，就读于教会学校，上世纪80年代在美国白人黄金时代娶到中产白女，生下一对White-Passing长相儿女的“模范小黄人”，但毕竟不是白人。“非我族类，其心必异”的原则，放诸四海皆准。对欧美政客来说，一家由亚裔、黄种人掌权的企业本身就是不安全的，更何况这家企业还牢牢把持着下一代芯片和人工智能的发展命脉。把黄仁勋关进局子，让一个真正的“自己人”接管英伟达的说法，在欧美从来不缺市场。大国角力之际，饶是英伟达，也只能夹缝求生。参考：英伟达为何被反垄断立案调查？财富英伟达激进销售策略引起美国司法部关注，财富本文中所有涉及上市公司的内容，系依据上市公司根据其法定义务及监管要求公开披露的信息（包括但不限于官方网站、官方社媒、定期或临时披露的官方公告等）做出的分析与判断，不构成任何投资建议或其他商业建议。本文中所有涉及商业人物的内容，系依据合法渠道公开披露的信息（包括但不限于媒体采访、人物传记等）做出的分析与判断，不构成任何投资建议或其他建议。因采纳本文，或受本文影响而采取的行为及其导致的相应后果，围观商业不承担任何责任。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291370912645408,"gmtCreate":1712161364109,"gmtModify":1712167362217,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Future(FFIE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199353461362760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":35,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358692486258936,"gmtCreate":1728611578664,"gmtModify":1728611580585,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"打他脸","listText":"打他脸","text":"打他脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358692486258936","repostId":"2474241707","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2474241707","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1728605163,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2474241707?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-11 08:06","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"富国银行第四季度交易策略，建议做空特斯拉","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2474241707","media":"金融界","summary":"富国银行在2024年第四季度的几大交易策略之一是做空Elon Musk的电动汽车公司特斯拉。富国银行的最佳建议之一是做空特斯拉，押注其股价将下跌。Langan表示：“我们预计由于需求下降和价格下调效果减弱，特斯拉的交付增长将放缓。”展望年底，富国银行还提出了第四季度的其他战术性交易建议：其中之一是赌场运营商Las Vegas Sands，其2024年股价上涨了约5%，远低于大盘。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>在2024年第四季度的几大交易策略之一是做空Elon Musk的电动汽车公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>（TSLA）。</p><p>截至10月，市场在月初的低迷之后有所反弹，投资者密切关注中东局势升级以及11月5日的美国总统大选。周三，股市小幅上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数创下新的盘中纪录，科技股领涨，其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和Super Micro Computer。</p><p>富国银行的最佳建议之一是做空特斯拉，押注其股价将下跌。分析师Colin Langan的目标价为每股120美元，意味着相较周二收盘价244.50美元有超过50%的下行空间。</p><p>Langan表示：“我们预计由于需求下降和价格下调效果减弱，特斯拉的交付增长将放缓。”</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/10/weixin/one_20241011080623347.png\"/></p><p>他还预计，特斯拉的汽车毛利率（不包括碳排放积分）将在公司继续降价和提供融资促销的情况下同比下滑400个基点。</p><p>“此外，我们对2025年后的Model 2需求和利润率感到担忧，”Langan补充道。“我们对其估值与‘科技七巨头’相比保持谨慎，并看到AI战略的风险。”</p><p>展望年底，富国银行还提出了第四季度的其他战术性交易建议：</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/10/weixin/one_20241011080623575.png\"/></p><p>其中之一是赌场运营商Las Vegas Sands（LVS），其2024年股价上涨了约5%，远低于大盘。</p><p>富国银行分析师Dan Politzer认为，支持其每股60美元目标价的正面因素包括中国近期推出的一系列旨在提振经济的刺激措施，以及管理层对其澳门伦敦人项目的约25.5亿美元投资回报的信心。这些因素，加上盈利势头的改善，可能使Las Vegas Sands成为一个“独特的自救故事以及澳门/中国的宏观主题。”</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/10/weixin/one_20241011080623772.png\"/></p><p>Politzer补充道：“我们认为LVS正走向盈利增长，并且是2025年的一个引人注目的投资机会。其施工干扰已经达到顶峰，有望在2025年逐季恢复总博彩收入份额并增加EBITDA。”</p><p>富国银行还密切关注保险服务公司Willis Towers Watson（WTW）。该公司2024年股价上涨了23%。</p><p><img src=\"http://img.jrjimg.cn/2024/10/weixin/one_20241011080623989.png\"/></p><p>富国银行分析师Elyse Greenspan预计，改善的有机收入增长、自由现金流转换和利润率增加将推动其股价上涨。Greenspan还指出，Willis 12月的投资者日可能成为股价的潜在刺激因素，届时预计公司将进一步披露其长期增长目标</p>\n<div>\n<div>\r\n            责任编辑：栎树\r\n          </div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>富国银行第四季度交易策略，建议做空特斯拉</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n富国银行第四季度交易策略，建议做空特斯拉\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-11 08:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/10/11080643900943.shtml><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>富国银行在2024年第四季度的几大交易策略之一是做空Elon Musk的电动汽车公司特斯拉（TSLA）。截至10月，市场在月初的低迷之后有所反弹，投资者密切关注中东局势升级以及11月5日的美国总统大选。周三，股市小幅上涨，标普500指数创下新的盘中纪录，科技股领涨，其中包括亚马逊和Super Micro Computer。富国银行的最佳建议之一是做空特斯拉，押注其股价将下跌。分析师Colin ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/10/11080643900943.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://imgcloud.jrjimg.cn/2024/10/weixin/one_20241011080623347.png","relate_stocks":{"LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) 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SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0162691827.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A4\" INC"},"source_url":"https://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2024/10/11080643900943.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2474241707","content_text":"富国银行在2024年第四季度的几大交易策略之一是做空Elon Musk的电动汽车公司特斯拉（TSLA）。截至10月，市场在月初的低迷之后有所反弹，投资者密切关注中东局势升级以及11月5日的美国总统大选。周三，股市小幅上涨，标普500指数创下新的盘中纪录，科技股领涨，其中包括亚马逊和Super Micro Computer。富国银行的最佳建议之一是做空特斯拉，押注其股价将下跌。分析师Colin Langan的目标价为每股120美元，意味着相较周二收盘价244.50美元有超过50%的下行空间。Langan表示：“我们预计由于需求下降和价格下调效果减弱，特斯拉的交付增长将放缓。”他还预计，特斯拉的汽车毛利率（不包括碳排放积分）将在公司继续降价和提供融资促销的情况下同比下滑400个基点。“此外，我们对2025年后的Model 2需求和利润率感到担忧，”Langan补充道。“我们对其估值与‘科技七巨头’相比保持谨慎，并看到AI战略的风险。”展望年底，富国银行还提出了第四季度的其他战术性交易建议：其中之一是赌场运营商Las Vegas Sands（LVS），其2024年股价上涨了约5%，远低于大盘。富国银行分析师Dan Politzer认为，支持其每股60美元目标价的正面因素包括中国近期推出的一系列旨在提振经济的刺激措施，以及管理层对其澳门伦敦人项目的约25.5亿美元投资回报的信心。这些因素，加上盈利势头的改善，可能使Las Vegas Sands成为一个“独特的自救故事以及澳门/中国的宏观主题。”Politzer补充道：“我们认为LVS正走向盈利增长，并且是2025年的一个引人注目的投资机会。其施工干扰已经达到顶峰，有望在2025年逐季恢复总博彩收入份额并增加EBITDA。”富国银行还密切关注保险服务公司Willis Towers Watson（WTW）。该公司2024年股价上涨了23%。富国银行分析师Elyse Greenspan预计，改善的有机收入增长、自由现金流转换和利润率增加将推动其股价上涨。Greenspan还指出，Willis 12月的投资者日可能成为股价的潜在刺激因素，届时预计公司将进一步披露其长期增长目标\n\n\r\n            责任编辑：栎树","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352165427785912,"gmtCreate":1727016884101,"gmtModify":1727016886422,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"难道高通的高管不清楚这些人人看得到的问题？我们想了解的是看不到的那些。例如制造板块是否会分离出去独立，芯片业务独立，各部分分离后的市场技术竞争力与估值，美国的政策方向。","listText":"难道高通的高管不清楚这些人人看得到的问题？我们想了解的是看不到的那些。例如制造板块是否会分离出去独立，芯片业务独立，各部分分离后的市场技术竞争力与估值，美国的政策方向。","text":"难道高通的高管不清楚这些人人看得到的问题？我们想了解的是看不到的那些。例如制造板块是否会分离出去独立，芯片业务独立，各部分分离后的市场技术竞争力与估值，美国的政策方向。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352165427785912","repostId":"1122650552","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122650552","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1726986700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122650552?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-22 14:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122650552","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"天风国际知名苹果分析师郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的AI PC晶片业务有帮助。但从微软对WoA的承诺 (其最新Surface机型都采用高通处理器/ARM架构)，高通在PC市场成长只是早晚问题。此外，单从英特尔市值约930亿美元来看，此并购案对高通的财务压力极大，且对获利能力会有立即性的负面影响，净利率可能从现在的20%+降到个位数甚至亏损 (晶圆代工业务是最大累赘)。加之考虑到各国之后的反垄断调查，此并购案很难在短期内完成。如此看来，高通应该没有强烈动机去并购英特尔才是，此并购案若发生，对高通可说是灾难一场。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>天风国际分析师郭明錤今日在社交平台 X 就高通寻求收购英特尔的传言发表观点称：“我的行业调查还表明，高通目前正在与英特尔进行收购谈判。<strong>然而，如果这次收购发生，对高通来说可能是一场灾难</strong>。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60c7b389b04d4c5b5f848eb1dcdd40f\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"512\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的 AI PC 芯片业务有帮助，但从微软对 WoA 的承诺（其最新 Surface 机型都采用高通处理器 / ARM 架构），<strong>高通在 PC 市场的增长只是早晚问题</strong>。虽然收购英特尔可以迅速增加高通的个人电脑市场份额，但它的成本也很高。即使没有收购，高通也能在 AI PC 市场实现增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤还称：</p><blockquote><p>为了在即将到来的 AI 时代蓬勃发展，高通的最佳策略是从 AI 智能手机芯片中快速产生现金流，同时扩大其在该领域的主导地位。该公司还应推动 AI PC 芯片的发展，建立涵盖智能手机和个人电脑的强大的设备端 AI 生态系统。此外，高通还需要通过战略投资和收购来迅速增强其服务器 AI 芯片能力。</p><p><strong>英特尔在传统服务器市场的强势地位对高通的吸引力有限</strong>。AI 服务器是服务器市场的未来之星，这也是英特尔目前的弱项。</p><p>高通拥有约 130 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和有价证券，市值约 1900 亿美元。即使忽略收购溢价、相关成本、债务假设、后续管理费用等，<strong>仅英特尔约 930 亿美元的市值就足以给高通带来巨大的财务压力</strong>。这将立即对盈利能力产生负面影响，可能使净利润率从目前的 20% 以上降至个位数甚至亏损（其中代工业务是最严重的拖累）。</p><p>高通最新季度资本支出约为 3.9 亿美元。使用英特尔收购专用资金（预计需要超过 1000 亿美元）来增加资本支出以追求 AI PC 和 AI 服务器的增长，风险会更小，管理效率也会更高。</p><p>考虑到在各国可能面临的反垄断调查，<strong>此次收购很难在短期内完成</strong>。即使高通为降低并购带来的财务与管理压力而出售部分英特尔资产，这也非一时三刻可以拍板定案。而上述不确定性在此并购进行中时，很不利于高通的股价交易情绪。</p><p>出于这些考虑，高通收购英特尔的动机并不强烈。如果这次收购成功，对高通来说可能是灾难性的。据我的调查和了解，高通在内部讨论中也表达了对收购英特尔的保守态度。这证实了我听到的一个谣言：<strong>高通是因为某“外力不可抗拒因素”的压力，才去谨慎并被动评估并购英特尔的可行性</strong>。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤认为，目前高通最关键的重点应该是建立 AI 芯片的竞争力：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">1、设备端 AI 智能手机芯片：高通在该市场拥有明显优势，是苹果最大的竞争对手。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">2、设备端 AI PC 芯片：随着 Windows on ARM（WoA）的逐步优化，高通的优势将更加明显。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">3、AI 服务器芯片：高通的弱项。</p></li></ul><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n郭明錤：若高通与英特尔的并购发生，可能是一场灾难\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-22 14:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>天风国际分析师郭明錤今日在社交平台 X 就高通寻求收购英特尔的传言发表观点称：“我的行业调查还表明，高通目前正在与英特尔进行收购谈判。<strong>然而，如果这次收购发生，对高通来说可能是一场灾难</strong>。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60c7b389b04d4c5b5f848eb1dcdd40f\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"512\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的 AI PC 芯片业务有帮助，但从微软对 WoA 的承诺（其最新 Surface 机型都采用高通处理器 / ARM 架构），<strong>高通在 PC 市场的增长只是早晚问题</strong>。虽然收购英特尔可以迅速增加高通的个人电脑市场份额，但它的成本也很高。即使没有收购，高通也能在 AI PC 市场实现增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤还称：</p><blockquote><p>为了在即将到来的 AI 时代蓬勃发展，高通的最佳策略是从 AI 智能手机芯片中快速产生现金流，同时扩大其在该领域的主导地位。该公司还应推动 AI PC 芯片的发展，建立涵盖智能手机和个人电脑的强大的设备端 AI 生态系统。此外，高通还需要通过战略投资和收购来迅速增强其服务器 AI 芯片能力。</p><p><strong>英特尔在传统服务器市场的强势地位对高通的吸引力有限</strong>。AI 服务器是服务器市场的未来之星，这也是英特尔目前的弱项。</p><p>高通拥有约 130 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和有价证券，市值约 1900 亿美元。即使忽略收购溢价、相关成本、债务假设、后续管理费用等，<strong>仅英特尔约 930 亿美元的市值就足以给高通带来巨大的财务压力</strong>。这将立即对盈利能力产生负面影响，可能使净利润率从目前的 20% 以上降至个位数甚至亏损（其中代工业务是最严重的拖累）。</p><p>高通最新季度资本支出约为 3.9 亿美元。使用英特尔收购专用资金（预计需要超过 1000 亿美元）来增加资本支出以追求 AI PC 和 AI 服务器的增长，风险会更小，管理效率也会更高。</p><p>考虑到在各国可能面临的反垄断调查，<strong>此次收购很难在短期内完成</strong>。即使高通为降低并购带来的财务与管理压力而出售部分英特尔资产，这也非一时三刻可以拍板定案。而上述不确定性在此并购进行中时，很不利于高通的股价交易情绪。</p><p>出于这些考虑，高通收购英特尔的动机并不强烈。如果这次收购成功，对高通来说可能是灾难性的。据我的调查和了解，高通在内部讨论中也表达了对收购英特尔的保守态度。这证实了我听到的一个谣言：<strong>高通是因为某“外力不可抗拒因素”的压力，才去谨慎并被动评估并购英特尔的可行性</strong>。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">郭明錤认为，目前高通最关键的重点应该是建立 AI 芯片的竞争力：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">1、设备端 AI 智能手机芯片：高通在该市场拥有明显优势，是苹果最大的竞争对手。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">2、设备端 AI PC 芯片：随着 Windows on ARM（WoA）的逐步优化，高通的优势将更加明显。</p></li><li><p style=\"padding-left: 20px;\">3、AI 服务器芯片：高通的弱项。</p></li></ul><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/994ce736e6a1ce2b6fe2a8e8040fed18","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122650552","content_text":"天风国际分析师郭明錤今日在社交平台 X 就高通寻求收购英特尔的传言发表观点称：“我的行业调查还表明，高通目前正在与英特尔进行收购谈判。然而，如果这次收购发生，对高通来说可能是一场灾难。”郭明錤表示，并购英特尔仅对高通的 AI PC 芯片业务有帮助，但从微软对 WoA 的承诺（其最新 Surface 机型都采用高通处理器 / ARM 架构），高通在 PC 市场的增长只是早晚问题。虽然收购英特尔可以迅速增加高通的个人电脑市场份额，但它的成本也很高。即使没有收购，高通也能在 AI PC 市场实现增长。郭明錤还称：为了在即将到来的 AI 时代蓬勃发展，高通的最佳策略是从 AI 智能手机芯片中快速产生现金流，同时扩大其在该领域的主导地位。该公司还应推动 AI PC 芯片的发展，建立涵盖智能手机和个人电脑的强大的设备端 AI 生态系统。此外，高通还需要通过战略投资和收购来迅速增强其服务器 AI 芯片能力。英特尔在传统服务器市场的强势地位对高通的吸引力有限。AI 服务器是服务器市场的未来之星，这也是英特尔目前的弱项。高通拥有约 130 亿美元的现金、现金等价物和有价证券，市值约 1900 亿美元。即使忽略收购溢价、相关成本、债务假设、后续管理费用等，仅英特尔约 930 亿美元的市值就足以给高通带来巨大的财务压力。这将立即对盈利能力产生负面影响，可能使净利润率从目前的 20% 以上降至个位数甚至亏损（其中代工业务是最严重的拖累）。高通最新季度资本支出约为 3.9 亿美元。使用英特尔收购专用资金（预计需要超过 1000 亿美元）来增加资本支出以追求 AI PC 和 AI 服务器的增长，风险会更小，管理效率也会更高。考虑到在各国可能面临的反垄断调查，此次收购很难在短期内完成。即使高通为降低并购带来的财务与管理压力而出售部分英特尔资产，这也非一时三刻可以拍板定案。而上述不确定性在此并购进行中时，很不利于高通的股价交易情绪。出于这些考虑，高通收购英特尔的动机并不强烈。如果这次收购成功，对高通来说可能是灾难性的。据我的调查和了解，高通在内部讨论中也表达了对收购英特尔的保守态度。这证实了我听到的一个谣言：高通是因为某“外力不可抗拒因素”的压力，才去谨慎并被动评估并购英特尔的可行性。郭明錤认为，目前高通最关键的重点应该是建立 AI 芯片的竞争力：1、设备端 AI 智能手机芯片：高通在该市场拥有明显优势，是苹果最大的竞争对手。2、设备端 AI PC 芯片：随着 Windows on ARM（WoA）的逐步优化，高通的优势将更加明显。3、AI 服务器芯片：高通的弱项。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351783421374576,"gmtCreate":1726923757932,"gmtModify":1726923759796,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英特尔的代工业务估值应该好几百亿美元吧？","listText":"英特尔的代工业务估值应该好几百亿美元吧？","text":"英特尔的代工业务估值应该好几百亿美元吧？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351783421374576","repostId":"1173968944","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173968944","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1726886281,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173968944?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-21 10:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高通：拟全盘收购英特尔！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173968944","media":"芯榜","summary":"高通拟收购英特尔要点：1、收购提议：高通向英特尔发出收购要约。高通的收购要约，无疑为英特尔提供了一个可能的出路。这或许是高通考虑收购英特尔的一个重要因素，通过此次收购，高通有望进一步完善自身的产业链。高通意图全盘收购英特尔近年来的困境已是不争的事实。因此，高通收购英特尔这一交易能否最终达成，仍充满变数。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b531bba7dbbf179b123ea08be7b7310\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"521\"/></p><p><strong>刚刚，全球芯片传出重磅消息：</strong></p><p>据《华尔街日报》援引知情人士透露，高通已向芯片巨头英特尔发出收购要约。有网友甚至给出建议，<strong>收购后，学习博通，改名为英特尔（高级黑？）</strong>。</p><blockquote><p><strong>高通拟收购英特尔要点：</strong></p><p><strong>1、收购提议</strong>：高通向英特尔发出收购要约。</p><p><strong>2、市场反应</strong>：英特尔股价尾盘大涨，高通股价一度下跌4%。</p><p><strong>3、英特尔状况</strong>：面临严重危机，股价大跌，市值缩水。</p><p><strong>4、交易挑战</strong>：可能面临反垄断审查，历史上有类似交易被阻。</p><p><strong>5、业务模式</strong>：高通依赖代工，英特尔则涉及多个领域。</p><p><strong>6、战略调整</strong>：英特尔计划投资代工业务，考虑外部投资。</p><p><strong>7、市场竞争</strong>：英特尔在AI市场落后于Nvidia。</p><p><strong>8、双方回应</strong>：均拒绝评论。</p><p><strong>9、潜在影响</strong>：若成功，将是巨大科技并购案，或改变市场格局。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59b31c071e6860a20d77b02b341654fd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"961\"/></p><p><strong>英特尔突传“卖身”</strong></p><p><strong>曾经的世界级霸主将何去何从</strong></p><p>英特尔，这家拥有五十年历史的芯片制造商，正面临前所未有的危机。周五早盘，其市值约为870亿美元，但近年来业绩不佳，股价大幅下跌。高通的收购要约，无疑为英特尔提供了一个可能的出路。然而，交易并非易事。即便英特尔愿意接受要约，如此大规模的并购也必将受到严格的反垄断审查。</p><p>高通作为智能手机芯片的主要供应商，其实力与影响力不容小觑。然而，与英特尔相比，高通在某些方面仍有不足。例如，高通并不自主生产芯片，而是依赖外部代工厂。这或许是高通考虑收购英特尔的一个重要因素，通过此次收购，高通有望进一步完善自身的产业链。</p><p>此外，这笔交易还有可能被视为加强特定地区芯片竞争优势的机会。在全球芯片产业格局日趋复杂的背景下，这样的并购无疑将引发更多关注和讨论。</p><p><strong>高通意图全盘收购</strong></p><p>英特尔近年来的困境已是不争的事实。从令人失望的财报到股价的大幅下跌，再到错过人工智能热潮，这家曾经的芯片巨头似乎已风光不再。与此同时，竞争对手如Nvidia等却抓住了市场机遇，快速崛起。</p><p>在这样的背景下，高通的收购要约显得尤为引人注目。对于英特尔而言，这笔交易或许能为其带来一线生机；对于高通而言，这则是一次千载难逢的扩张机会。然而，交易的最终达成仍面临诸多不确定性。除了反垄断审查外，双方还需就交易细节进行深入谈判，并争取各自股东的支持。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21f839a90fdc2cd0b233b7c0e61e23c3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p><p>近年来大型科技并购案屡遭挫折。如博通收购高通、英伟达收购Arm等交易均因各种原因未能成功。因此，高通收购英特尔这一交易能否最终达成，仍充满变数。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1685238158152","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高通：拟全盘收购英特尔！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高通：拟全盘收购英特尔！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-21 10:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g-MEP1vk1XmxfRT-eSVUwA><strong>芯榜</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>刚刚，全球芯片传出重磅消息：据《华尔街日报》援引知情人士透露，高通已向芯片巨头英特尔发出收购要约。有网友甚至给出建议，收购后，学习博通，改名为英特尔（高级黑？）。高通拟收购英特尔要点：1、收购提议：高通向英特尔发出收购要约。2、市场反应：英特尔股价尾盘大涨，高通股价一度下跌4%。3、英特尔状况：面临严重危机，股价大跌，市值缩水。4、交易挑战：可能面临反垄断审查，历史上有类似交易被阻。5、业务模式：...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g-MEP1vk1XmxfRT-eSVUwA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b531bba7dbbf179b123ea08be7b7310","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g-MEP1vk1XmxfRT-eSVUwA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173968944","content_text":"刚刚，全球芯片传出重磅消息：据《华尔街日报》援引知情人士透露，高通已向芯片巨头英特尔发出收购要约。有网友甚至给出建议，收购后，学习博通，改名为英特尔（高级黑？）。高通拟收购英特尔要点：1、收购提议：高通向英特尔发出收购要约。2、市场反应：英特尔股价尾盘大涨，高通股价一度下跌4%。3、英特尔状况：面临严重危机，股价大跌，市值缩水。4、交易挑战：可能面临反垄断审查，历史上有类似交易被阻。5、业务模式：高通依赖代工，英特尔则涉及多个领域。6、战略调整：英特尔计划投资代工业务，考虑外部投资。7、市场竞争：英特尔在AI市场落后于Nvidia。8、双方回应：均拒绝评论。9、潜在影响：若成功，将是巨大科技并购案，或改变市场格局。英特尔突传“卖身”曾经的世界级霸主将何去何从英特尔，这家拥有五十年历史的芯片制造商，正面临前所未有的危机。周五早盘，其市值约为870亿美元，但近年来业绩不佳，股价大幅下跌。高通的收购要约，无疑为英特尔提供了一个可能的出路。然而，交易并非易事。即便英特尔愿意接受要约，如此大规模的并购也必将受到严格的反垄断审查。高通作为智能手机芯片的主要供应商，其实力与影响力不容小觑。然而，与英特尔相比，高通在某些方面仍有不足。例如，高通并不自主生产芯片，而是依赖外部代工厂。这或许是高通考虑收购英特尔的一个重要因素，通过此次收购，高通有望进一步完善自身的产业链。此外，这笔交易还有可能被视为加强特定地区芯片竞争优势的机会。在全球芯片产业格局日趋复杂的背景下，这样的并购无疑将引发更多关注和讨论。高通意图全盘收购英特尔近年来的困境已是不争的事实。从令人失望的财报到股价的大幅下跌，再到错过人工智能热潮，这家曾经的芯片巨头似乎已风光不再。与此同时，竞争对手如Nvidia等却抓住了市场机遇，快速崛起。在这样的背景下，高通的收购要约显得尤为引人注目。对于英特尔而言，这笔交易或许能为其带来一线生机；对于高通而言，这则是一次千载难逢的扩张机会。然而，交易的最终达成仍面临诸多不确定性。除了反垄断审查外，双方还需就交易细节进行深入谈判，并争取各自股东的支持。近年来大型科技并购案屡遭挫折。如博通收购高通、英伟达收购Arm等交易均因各种原因未能成功。因此，高通收购英特尔这一交易能否最终达成，仍充满变数。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349003235004600,"gmtCreate":1726235542586,"gmtModify":1726237010090,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"拼多多真的是一群混蛋，搞坏了原有的市场环境，赔钱害大家","listText":"拼多多真的是一群混蛋，搞坏了原有的市场环境，赔钱害大家","text":"拼多多真的是一群混蛋，搞坏了原有的市场环境，赔钱害大家","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349003235004600","repostId":"2467278317","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2467278317","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1726231715,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2467278317?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"BUZZ-特姆母公司 PDD 因美国限制中国低价值货物入境而下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2467278317","media":"Reuters","summary":"((自动化翻译由路透提供，请见免责声明 ))    9月13日 - ** 特姆母公司PDD Holdings  股价盘前下跌逾6%，至91.40美元** 美国政府将限制 (link) 800美元 \"微量 \"门槛下的低价值货物入境，这已被Shein和Temu等中国电子商务公司利用** Shein和Temu从中国直接向美国消费者发货，成为该条款的最大受益者** 亚马逊和沃尔玛等美国零售商也利用这一规定** 截至周四收盘，PDD 股价累计下跌超过 33","content":"<html><body><p>((自动化翻译由路透提供，请见免责声明 ))</p><p>    9月13日 - ** 特姆母公司PDD Holdings  股价盘前下跌逾6%，至91.40美元</p><p>** 美国政府将限制 (link) 800美元 \"微量 \"门槛下的低价值货物入境，这已被Shein和Temu等中国电子商务公司利用</p><p>** Shein和Temu从中国直接向美国消费者发货，成为该条款的最大受益者</p><p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>等美国零售商也利用这一规定</p><p>** 截至周四收盘，PDD 股价累计下跌超过 33  </p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BUZZ-特姆母公司 PDD 因美国限制中国低价值货物入境而下跌</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBUZZ-特姆母公司 PDD 因美国限制中国低价值货物入境而下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-13 20:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>((自动化翻译由路透提供，请见免责声明 ))</p><p>    9月13日 - ** 特姆母公司PDD Holdings  股价盘前下跌逾6%，至91.40美元</p><p>** 美国政府将限制 (link) 800美元 \"微量 \"门槛下的低价值货物入境，这已被Shein和Temu等中国电子商务公司利用</p><p>** Shein和Temu从中国直接向美国消费者发货，成为该条款的最大受益者</p><p>** <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>等美国零售商也利用这一规定</p><p>** 截至周四收盘，PDD 股价累计下跌超过 33  </p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0823397103.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE ASIA EX-JAPAN EQUITY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0823397285.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE ASIA EX-JAPAN EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0329678170.USD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","PDD":"拼多多","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0502904849.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  CHINA INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0329678337.USD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA 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ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0737861772.HKD":"FIDELITY EMERGING ASIA \"A \" (HKD) ACC","LU0633140560.USD":"AB EMERGING MARKET MULTI ASSET PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2467278317","content_text":"((自动化翻译由路透提供，请见免责声明 ))    9月13日 - ** 特姆母公司PDD Holdings  股价盘前下跌逾6%，至91.40美元** 美国政府将限制 (link) 800美元 \"微量 \"门槛下的低价值货物入境，这已被Shein和Temu等中国电子商务公司利用** Shein和Temu从中国直接向美国消费者发货，成为该条款的最大受益者** 亚马逊和沃尔玛等美国零售商也利用这一规定** 截至周四收盘，PDD 股价累计下跌超过 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17:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拼多多在海外杀疯了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2439966083","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"TEMU盈利在望.","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>TEMU盈利在望</p></blockquote><p>九年前，没有人会相信，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>这样一个以“低价”为标签的后来者，有朝一日能成为老大哥<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>的最大竞争对手。</p><p>然而，时代巨变、兴衰交替，业绩增长持续超预期，以及跨境电商业务TEMU带来的广阔市场潜力，让拼多多得到市场青睐，与阿里巴巴争夺起电商市值一哥的宝座。</p><p>拼多多希望借着TEMU，在海外“再造一个拼多多”。TEMU也在海外掀起腥风血雨，从全托管到半托管，TEMU给自己定下颇为激进的增长目标，要从“中国跨境电商四小龙”当中胜出，成为全球跨境电商当中的数一数二的存在。</p><p>今年一季度，以TEMU为主要驱动力的交易服务收入，首次赶超在线营销业务成为拼多多最大的收入来源。多家券商认为TEMU亏损已经大幅收窄，甚至接近盈亏平衡。</p><p>虽然跨境电商行业已经走过了最初的野蛮生长阶段，但竞争依然激烈。接下来，TEMU也会面临外部更多挑战。它需要走稳每一步，不断优化运营模式，才能复制拼多多国内后来居上的剧本。</p><p>这一路并不会太轻松。 </p><p><strong>激增</strong></p><p>国内电商行业增量见顶的情况下， TEMU是拼多多寻求新增长点的破局之道。它也是被外界视作可以再造一个拼多多的存在。 </p><p>在2022年9月，TEMU像鲶鱼一样冲进跨境电商这片蓝海，依靠低价策略和首创的“全托管模式”，火速在2023年扩张到全球 48个国家和地区，跻身全球应用下载量前十名，更成为美国下载量最高的应用之一。</p><p>今年以来，TEMU继续火力全开，进入了更多国家和地区。据华尔街见闻统计，截至目前，TEMU已开设约68个站点, 实现了覆盖所有大洲，其中欧洲站点数量最多，体量上则是美国市场最大。</p><p>拼多多最新发布财报显示，其一季度营收同比增长131%至868.1亿元，其中TEMU为主要驱动力的交易服务收入大幅增长327%至443.6亿美元，首次赶超在线营销业务成为拼多多最大的收入来源。</p><p>去年以来，TEMU快速扩张的主要因素之一，就是因为其放弃了拼多多在国内使用的平台模式，转向全托管模式。该模式极大降低了跨境商家的出海门槛，由平台提供店铺运营、仓储物流、售后服务等一站式服务，卖家只充当着“供货商”的角色。</p><p>“全托管”让TEMU取得了第一阶段的胜利，也让全托管成为了各大跨境电商平台的“标配”。</p><p>在TEMU带来的高增长前景下，一季度财报发布后，拼多多美股盘前涨幅一度超13%，报158.46美元/股。截至5月30日，拼多多市值也再度超越阿里巴巴。</p><p>一直到现在，拼多多官方都未对外公开披露过TEMU的具体GMV，但拼多多野心不小。 </p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">国信证券</a>测算，TEMU一季度GMV超过130亿美元，按58%计入收入，贡献约353亿人民币收入。从今年全年的GMV来看，浦银国际预计TEMU全年GMV或超400亿美元，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">交银国际</a>则预测将增长200%以上达到500亿美元。</p><p>有多位消息人士透露，TEMU自身还有一个更激进的GMV目标，那就是高达600亿美元，这一数字是去年约180亿美元年销售额的3.33倍。</p><p>另据Sensortower数据,截至2024年4月，TEMU MAU到1.9亿人，已经超过了SHEIN的1.7亿人。</p><p>随着规模的进一步扩大，以及半托管模式在今年初上线，让TEMU盈利在望。</p><p>浦银国际研报指出，TEMU高速增长，预计2025年扭亏，全年交易服务收入将同比增长357%，测算其中约8成来自TEMU业务。交银国际则预测，TEMU今年有望在美国，率先实现盈利。 </p><p><strong>战火</strong></p><p>跨境电商市场的战火又燃起来了。去年TEMU带头推出全托管，快速搅动着这片市场，如今，它又很快地跟进友商的动作，推出半托管模式。</p><p>以启动“半托管”为标志，TEMU希望在规模上更进一步。</p><p>接近TEMU人士告诉华尔街见闻，这是为了更好地适应商家的成长变化，给予商家更多的灵活性和主动性，产品类目涵盖服装首饰、家具家居、美妆个护、户外运动、工业设备等。</p><p>“半托管”今年已成为各大跨境电商平台的新战场，不过，此番率先打响半托管发令枪的不再是TEMU，而是去年相对低调的老大哥速卖通。</p><p>紧跟速卖通之后，TEMU在今年元旦之后开启半托管商家招募，到3月中旬在美国正式上线，短短两个月，已经开通了美国、加拿大、英国、德国、意大利、法国、西班牙、澳大利亚、新西兰等9大站点。据悉，全球站点正在加速开放中。</p><p>TEMU半托管和全托管模式的区别主要体现在仓储物流上，针对其他繁琐环节的平台服务，例如网站引流、店铺运营、客户服务、知产法务等，目前并没有区别。半托管模式更适合在跨境电商领域发展相对成熟、拥有自己的仓库物流合作商的跨境商家。</p><p>据华尔街见闻了解，与TEMU还掌控着店铺运营、商品定价不同，速卖通的半托管模式，是平台只负责仓储物流、售后服务环节，店铺运营和定价则由商家自己负责。</p><p>接近TEMU人士透露，半托管模式可以让TEMU在保持质价比的同时实现更快的速度。而未来，如果商家的自身能力越来越强，TEMU或许将给予商家更大的空间与自由。</p><p>另有业内人士对华尔街见闻指出，2024，“半托管”或将弯道超车，成为跨境玩家们竞争的关键所在。</p><p>对于TEMU加入“半托管”,资本市场也普遍是看好的态度。</p><p>多家券商机构指出，TMEU半托管可以带动大货占比提升，从而提升客单价，叠加降低单均物流费用，能够在提高用户体验的同时，优化其单位经济模型，从而提高盈利能力和市场竞争力，有望带动TEMU业务整体亏损显著改善，并较早实现盈利上岸。 </p><p>不过，如今TEMU的收益主要来自终端销售价与商家结算之间的差价。为了吸引商家，目前无论是半托管还是全托管，TMUE均不收取佣金。 </p><p>与此同时，走过野蛮生长的第一阶段，TEMU也需要更重视提升用户体验，在售价上还不能有大调整的同时，要更重视通过提供更高效的物流服务和更优质的商品，来提升用户满意度和忠诚度。</p><p>显然，在跨境电商业务上，TEMU把拼多多在国内攻城略地的那一套玩法又如法炮制了一番。 </p><p>不过跨境电商战场战况愈发激烈，TEMU要在新的市场做大并不容易。</p><p>壹玖钧泽网络科技有限公司总经理高燕对华尔街见闻表示，今年以来，作为跨境商家，其最深的感受就是中国跨境电商平台间的竞争将呈现多元化和激烈化的特点，包括专业度、产品力、品牌力和创新力的综合比拼。</p><p>在此背景下，各大跨境电商平台在保持其既有优势和基因的的同时，应更加注重差异化竞争优势的建立，提升用户体验，加强技术创新。</p><p>此外，Tiktok在美国的境遇也警示着TEMU，它需要预防海外市场的政策风险。一季度以来，TEMU加速在中东、欧洲、拉美等地区的业务拓展，以降低美国地区占比过高的潜在政策风险。</p><p>拼多多能够在国内快速崛起，是天时、地利、人和共同作用之下的结果，如今其出海似乎又再一次占据了这些有利因素，但这一战场更加复杂。</p><p>要成为中国跨境电商中的赢家，甚至改写全球电商格局，拼多多任重而道远。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拼多多在海外杀疯了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拼多多在海外杀疯了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-30 17:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3716117><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>TEMU盈利在望九年前，没有人会相信，拼多多这样一个以“低价”为标签的后来者，有朝一日能成为老大哥阿里巴巴的最大竞争对手。然而，时代巨变、兴衰交替，业绩增长持续超预期，以及跨境电商业务TEMU带来的广阔市场潜力，让拼多多得到市场青睐，与阿里巴巴争夺起电商市值一哥的宝座。拼多多希望借着TEMU，在海外“再造一个拼多多”。TEMU也在海外掀起腥风血雨，从全托管到半托管，TEMU给自己定下颇为激进的增长...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3716117\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba4d763daca18f6fd7e6deb2082f40d4","relate_stocks":{"LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999002463.SGD":"LionGlobal China Growth SGD","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring 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ACC","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","SG9999014674.SGD":"Nikko AM All China Equity A SGD","SG9999002562.SGD":"LionGlobal Asia Pacific SGD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3716117","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2439966083","content_text":"TEMU盈利在望九年前，没有人会相信，拼多多这样一个以“低价”为标签的后来者，有朝一日能成为老大哥阿里巴巴的最大竞争对手。然而，时代巨变、兴衰交替，业绩增长持续超预期，以及跨境电商业务TEMU带来的广阔市场潜力，让拼多多得到市场青睐，与阿里巴巴争夺起电商市值一哥的宝座。拼多多希望借着TEMU，在海外“再造一个拼多多”。TEMU也在海外掀起腥风血雨，从全托管到半托管，TEMU给自己定下颇为激进的增长目标，要从“中国跨境电商四小龙”当中胜出，成为全球跨境电商当中的数一数二的存在。今年一季度，以TEMU为主要驱动力的交易服务收入，首次赶超在线营销业务成为拼多多最大的收入来源。多家券商认为TEMU亏损已经大幅收窄，甚至接近盈亏平衡。虽然跨境电商行业已经走过了最初的野蛮生长阶段，但竞争依然激烈。接下来，TEMU也会面临外部更多挑战。它需要走稳每一步，不断优化运营模式，才能复制拼多多国内后来居上的剧本。这一路并不会太轻松。 激增国内电商行业增量见顶的情况下， TEMU是拼多多寻求新增长点的破局之道。它也是被外界视作可以再造一个拼多多的存在。 在2022年9月，TEMU像鲶鱼一样冲进跨境电商这片蓝海，依靠低价策略和首创的“全托管模式”，火速在2023年扩张到全球 48个国家和地区，跻身全球应用下载量前十名，更成为美国下载量最高的应用之一。今年以来，TEMU继续火力全开，进入了更多国家和地区。据华尔街见闻统计，截至目前，TEMU已开设约68个站点, 实现了覆盖所有大洲，其中欧洲站点数量最多，体量上则是美国市场最大。拼多多最新发布财报显示，其一季度营收同比增长131%至868.1亿元，其中TEMU为主要驱动力的交易服务收入大幅增长327%至443.6亿美元，首次赶超在线营销业务成为拼多多最大的收入来源。去年以来，TEMU快速扩张的主要因素之一，就是因为其放弃了拼多多在国内使用的平台模式，转向全托管模式。该模式极大降低了跨境商家的出海门槛，由平台提供店铺运营、仓储物流、售后服务等一站式服务，卖家只充当着“供货商”的角色。“全托管”让TEMU取得了第一阶段的胜利，也让全托管成为了各大跨境电商平台的“标配”。在TEMU带来的高增长前景下，一季度财报发布后，拼多多美股盘前涨幅一度超13%，报158.46美元/股。截至5月30日，拼多多市值也再度超越阿里巴巴。一直到现在，拼多多官方都未对外公开披露过TEMU的具体GMV，但拼多多野心不小。 国信证券测算，TEMU一季度GMV超过130亿美元，按58%计入收入，贡献约353亿人民币收入。从今年全年的GMV来看，浦银国际预计TEMU全年GMV或超400亿美元，交银国际则预测将增长200%以上达到500亿美元。有多位消息人士透露，TEMU自身还有一个更激进的GMV目标，那就是高达600亿美元，这一数字是去年约180亿美元年销售额的3.33倍。另据Sensortower数据,截至2024年4月，TEMU MAU到1.9亿人，已经超过了SHEIN的1.7亿人。随着规模的进一步扩大，以及半托管模式在今年初上线，让TEMU盈利在望。浦银国际研报指出，TEMU高速增长，预计2025年扭亏，全年交易服务收入将同比增长357%，测算其中约8成来自TEMU业务。交银国际则预测，TEMU今年有望在美国，率先实现盈利。 战火跨境电商市场的战火又燃起来了。去年TEMU带头推出全托管，快速搅动着这片市场，如今，它又很快地跟进友商的动作，推出半托管模式。以启动“半托管”为标志，TEMU希望在规模上更进一步。接近TEMU人士告诉华尔街见闻，这是为了更好地适应商家的成长变化，给予商家更多的灵活性和主动性，产品类目涵盖服装首饰、家具家居、美妆个护、户外运动、工业设备等。“半托管”今年已成为各大跨境电商平台的新战场，不过，此番率先打响半托管发令枪的不再是TEMU，而是去年相对低调的老大哥速卖通。紧跟速卖通之后，TEMU在今年元旦之后开启半托管商家招募，到3月中旬在美国正式上线，短短两个月，已经开通了美国、加拿大、英国、德国、意大利、法国、西班牙、澳大利亚、新西兰等9大站点。据悉，全球站点正在加速开放中。TEMU半托管和全托管模式的区别主要体现在仓储物流上，针对其他繁琐环节的平台服务，例如网站引流、店铺运营、客户服务、知产法务等，目前并没有区别。半托管模式更适合在跨境电商领域发展相对成熟、拥有自己的仓库物流合作商的跨境商家。据华尔街见闻了解，与TEMU还掌控着店铺运营、商品定价不同，速卖通的半托管模式，是平台只负责仓储物流、售后服务环节，店铺运营和定价则由商家自己负责。接近TEMU人士透露，半托管模式可以让TEMU在保持质价比的同时实现更快的速度。而未来，如果商家的自身能力越来越强，TEMU或许将给予商家更大的空间与自由。另有业内人士对华尔街见闻指出，2024，“半托管”或将弯道超车，成为跨境玩家们竞争的关键所在。对于TEMU加入“半托管”,资本市场也普遍是看好的态度。多家券商机构指出，TMEU半托管可以带动大货占比提升，从而提升客单价，叠加降低单均物流费用，能够在提高用户体验的同时，优化其单位经济模型，从而提高盈利能力和市场竞争力，有望带动TEMU业务整体亏损显著改善，并较早实现盈利上岸。 不过，如今TEMU的收益主要来自终端销售价与商家结算之间的差价。为了吸引商家，目前无论是半托管还是全托管，TMUE均不收取佣金。 与此同时，走过野蛮生长的第一阶段，TEMU也需要更重视提升用户体验，在售价上还不能有大调整的同时，要更重视通过提供更高效的物流服务和更优质的商品，来提升用户满意度和忠诚度。显然，在跨境电商业务上，TEMU把拼多多在国内攻城略地的那一套玩法又如法炮制了一番。 不过跨境电商战场战况愈发激烈，TEMU要在新的市场做大并不容易。壹玖钧泽网络科技有限公司总经理高燕对华尔街见闻表示，今年以来，作为跨境商家，其最深的感受就是中国跨境电商平台间的竞争将呈现多元化和激烈化的特点，包括专业度、产品力、品牌力和创新力的综合比拼。在此背景下，各大跨境电商平台在保持其既有优势和基因的的同时，应更加注重差异化竞争优势的建立，提升用户体验，加强技术创新。此外，Tiktok在美国的境遇也警示着TEMU，它需要预防海外市场的政策风险。一季度以来，TEMU加速在中东、欧洲、拉美等地区的业务拓展，以降低美国地区占比过高的潜在政策风险。拼多多能够在国内快速崛起，是天时、地利、人和共同作用之下的结果，如今其出海似乎又再一次占据了这些有利因素，但这一战场更加复杂。要成为中国跨境电商中的赢家，甚至改写全球电商格局，拼多多任重而道远。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308183899037992,"gmtCreate":1716262051136,"gmtModify":1716262052867,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"都不打个正眼看","listText":"都不打个正眼看","text":"都不打个正眼看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308183899037992","repostId":"2436129423","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2436129423","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1716192360,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2436129423?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-20 16:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"字节大模型大降价，百度、阿里能否抗住？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2436129423","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"一年前，字节跳动就完成了自主研发大模型，豆包大模型原名云雀，是国内首批通过算法备案的大模型之一，在内部亲切的称呼它为豆包。打响价格战如何快速抢占国内市场，谭待在发布会首次对外阐述了字节跳动在大模型的战略布局。在此次发布会，字节跳动还发布新一代AI应用搭建平台扣子，连接大模型和用户场景的扣子，无论用户是否有编程基础，都可以在扣子上快速搭建基于大模型的各类Bot，并","content":"<div>\n<p>作者|谢涵编辑|陈秋运营|陈小妍另镜(ID:DMS-012)去年3月在OpenAI推出GPT-4一天后，国内众多头部企业华为、百度、阿里、腾讯、科大讯飞、商汤等科技企业纷纷快速布局AI大模型赛道，而备受外界期待的字节跳动AI大模型业务却迟迟未向外界公布具体战略。时隔一年多，字节跳动终于对外宣布，5月15日上午，字节跳动旗下云服务平台火山引擎在北京举办了声势浩大的发布会，火山引擎总裁谭待在发布会上...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240520160825877d2c49&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240520160825877d2c49&s=b><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者|谢涵编辑|陈秋运营|陈小妍另镜(ID:DMS-012)去年3月在OpenAI推出GPT-4一天后，国内众多头部企业华为、百度、阿里、腾讯、科大讯飞、商汤等科技企业纷纷快速布局AI大模型赛道，而备受外界期待的字节跳动AI大模型业务却迟迟未向外界公布具体战略。时隔一年多，字节跳动终于对外宣布，5月15日上午，字节跳动旗下云服务平台火山引擎在北京举办了声势浩大的发布会，火山引擎总裁谭待在发布会上...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240520160825877d2c49&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"89888":"百度集团-SWR","89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1515016050.SGD":"Blackrock Emerging Markets Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU0880133367.SGD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND CHINA OPPORTUNITY USD \"P\" (SGD) ACC","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240520160825877d2c49&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2436129423","content_text":"作者|谢涵编辑|陈秋运营|陈小妍另镜(ID:DMS-012)去年3月在OpenAI推出GPT-4一天后，国内众多头部企业华为、百度、阿里、腾讯、科大讯飞、商汤等科技企业纷纷快速布局AI大模型赛道，而备受外界期待的字节跳动AI大模型业务却迟迟未向外界公布具体战略。时隔一年多，字节跳动终于对外宣布，5月15日上午，字节跳动旗下云服务平台火山引擎在北京举办了声势浩大的发布会，火山引擎总裁谭待在发布会上正式宣布，字节跳动自研豆包大模型对外提供服务。据火山引擎总裁谭待介绍，经过一年时间的迭代和市场验证，豆包大模型正成为国内使用量最大、应用场景最丰富的大模型之一，目前日均处理1200亿Tokens文本，生成3000万张图片。根据在发布会披露数据，豆包用户规模在快速增长，月活用户数已达2600万，被创建智能体达800多万个。在定价方面，对比国内外目前最新的32K主力模型，GPT4价格约为0.42元/千Tokens，百度文心一言和阿里最新的通义千问2.5价格均接近0.12元/千Tokens，而豆包通用模型pro-32k版模型推理输入价格仅为0.0008元/千Tokens，比行业低99.3%。在长文本方面，目前阿里和百度还没有跟进长文本128k，GPT4-Turbo价格约为7分钱/千Tokens，豆包通用模型Pro-128K模型定价为0.005元/千Tokens，比行业低95.8%。这是什么概念？《三国演义》很多人都读过，一共有75万字，根据火山引擎公布的价格计算，一元钱就能买到豆包主力模型的125万Tokens，大约是200万个汉字，意味着只需要1块钱就能处理3本《三国演义》的文字量。谈及低价策略，在发布会当天下午的群访中，火山引擎总裁谭待向另镜等媒体解释，“我们做这个定价，是我们对技术还是有信心的，这是最关键的，而不是我们拿亏损来做这件事情，亏损是接受不了的。”我们在技术上有优化成本的手段，比如分布式推理、混合调度等，未来能持续以此价格服务行业，亏损换收入不可持续，我们不会这么做。能力最强的主力模型定价都比行业低，简单来说，是因为我们能做，也需要这么做。做应用一定要生态繁荣，市场面临非常多的不确定性，试错成本要降得非常低，才能够让大家广泛地用起来，不管是大的企业还是说开发的个人，都能用起来，所以市场的呼声就是说我们需要更低成本的核心。谭待称，随着大模型技术的不断发展，企业与开发者都在积极投身大模型，各类场景蓄势待发。今年大模型能力提升，应用是很重要的环节，我们判断，在未来一年，大模型将在越来越多的企业场景从POC阶段走到真实的生产系统。一年前，字节跳动就完成了自主研发大模型，豆包大模型原名云雀，是国内首批通过算法备案的大模型之一，在内部亲切的称呼它为豆包。在过去一年里，字节内部50多个业务已经大量使用豆包进行AI创新，包括抖音、头条、番茄小说等多个产品。同时火山引擎也以邀测的方式，和不同行业的头部客户对基于豆包大模型进行深度共创，包括手机、汽车、金融、消费、互娱等等领域。打响价格战如何快速抢占国内市场，谭待在发布会首次对外阐述了字节跳动在大模型的战略布局。一是，此次节跳动自研豆包大模型，提供的是一个有多模态能力的模型家族，目前主要包括通用模型pro、通用模型lite、语音识别模型、语音合成模型、文生图模型等九款模型。其中通用大模型支持128k长文本，也包含轻量级大模型以及当下非常火的文生图等垂类大模型。由此可见，虽然对外宣布比较晚，但低价策略和矩阵打法足以撼动行业格局。二是，在市场定位方面，字节跳动抛出一张王炸牌，那就是卷起行业价格战，价格定位方面不只比国外GPT4价格低很多，比百度文心一言和阿里通义千问都低很多。“大的使用量，才能打磨出好模型，也能大幅降低模型推理的单位成本。豆包主力模型在企业市场的定价只有0.0008元/千Tokens，0.8厘就能处理1500多个汉字，比行业便宜99.3%，”谭待表示，大模型从以分计价到以厘计价，将助力企业以更低成本加速业务创新。谭待认为，降低成本是推动大模型快进到“价值创造阶段”的一个关键因素。豆包大模型的定价大幅低于行业价格：以豆包通用模型pro-32k版为例，模型推理输入价格仅为0.0008元/千Tokens。而市面上同规格模型的定价一般为0.12元/千Tokens，是豆包模型价格的150倍。三是，依托内部50多个业务线和前期大模型进行深度共创，字节大模型在从早期预训练战场中，快速转战场景融合和商业化阶段。发布会当天，火山引擎联合中国电动汽车百人会，与吉利汽车、长城汽车、捷途汽车、赛力斯、智己汽车等20余家厂商，宣布成立汽车大模型生态联盟，致力于为消费者带来汽车全场景AI新体验。同时，火山引擎与OPPO、vivo、荣耀、小米、三星、华硕宣布成立智能终端大模型联盟。OPPO小布助手、荣耀智慧办公智能助手、小米“小爱同学”，以及华硕笔记本电脑的豆叮AI助手等应用，均已接入火山引擎的大模型服务背后技术路线目前，豆包大模型已经在智能终端、汽车、金融、社交互娱、在线教育、电商零售、科研、企业服务和法律行业九大领域实践。不同行业的数据和垂类模型有很大的区别，背后大模型的技术难度可想而知。火山引擎副总裁、字节跳动开源委员会负责人张鑫指出，大模型的出现，让AI从“快思考”进入到“慢思考”阶段，并带来了使用方式从图形界面到自然语言，开发方式从写代码到写提示词/图，研发范式从“碎片化”到“大一统”，效率体验从Copilot到Agent的四大变革。然而，面对变革所带来的新发展机遇，企业在数据驱动的大模型商业应用落地时，却面临着交互不擅长深度推理、知识不可溯源、实时更新代价高等挑战。面对上述新的挑战，火山引擎提出了四大破局方案。张鑫分享表示，首先是做好提示词工程最佳实践，掌握这一最高杠杆的技能；其次是从知识库构建和检索两大角度入手，建设企业大脑，做好检索增强生成（RAG）；再次是依托知识图谱能力对大模型进行增强，实现知识与数据的双轮驱动；最后是通过prompt优化、知识增强、调用插件、循环迭代等手段，完善任务拆解的大模型工程化。张鑫指出，火山引擎基于四大破局方案，通过沉淀最佳实践，推出一站式大模型服务平台火山方舟，以及面向业务人员的企业专属AI应用创新平台HiAgent，全面助力企业实现大模型破局的标准化、敏捷化与自动化。谭待表示，火山引擎致力于成为AI时代最开放和领先的云服务平台。全新升级的火山方舟2.0不仅提供了抖音、今日头条的搜索和内容插件等丰富的生态资源，还有着充沛的算力资源和极致弹性，保障客户的业务稳定。火山引擎算法团队也将为豆包大模型的企业客户提供支持，分享模型调优和数据处理的实践经验，与企业客户共同探索AI转型的智能未来。2023年6月，大模型服务平台火山方舟正式发布。平台提供模型精调、推理、评测等全方位功能与服务，提供丰富的插件生态和AI应用开发服务，并通过安全可信方案，专业的算法技术服务，全方位保障企业级Al应用落地。火山方舟2.0，大幅提升模型效果、核心插件、系统性能及平台体验，帮助企业推进大模型的价值创造。在此次发布会，字节跳动还发布新一代AI应用搭建平台扣子，连接大模型和用户场景的扣子，无论用户是否有编程基础，都可以在扣子上快速搭建基于大模型的各类Bot，并将Bot发布到各个社交平台、通讯软件或部署到网站等其他渠道。目前，扣子专业版已集成在火山引擎的大模型服务平台“火山方舟”上，提供企业级SLA和高级特性。招商银行、海底捞火锅、超级猩猩、猎聘等企业，已在扣子上搭建了智能体。除此之外，本次发布会上，火山方舟还重点提到了，2.0产品对插件生态的进一步丰富，更新后的平台将会上线三个凝结了字节跳动内部强项能力的插件——联网插件、内容插件以及RAG知识库插件。总结近期，海外大模型密集迭代，5月14日凌晨，OpenAI在首次“春季新品发布会”上，发布了最新一代旗舰大模型GPT-4o，与之前只能打文字相比，变得更智能，可横跨语音、文本和视觉，超低时延的语音助手和翻译，并且可以感知人类情绪。而更让业界震惊的是，它居然免费，付费则可以获得五倍的使用容量。在价格方面，GPT-4o的价格是GPT-4-turbo的一半，速度却是GPT-4-turbo的两倍，速率限制也高5倍。时隔仅一天，5月15日凌晨，谷歌召开2024 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Advance的用户，上下文窗口拓展到200万token，推出开源模型Gemma2.0、文生图像模型Imagen3、视频生成对标Sora模型Veo等。而在国内更是硝烟四起，各大互联网科技企业都在加速迭代大模型版本，同时寻求商业化变现之路。字节发布自研豆包大模型，这也意味着国内大模型竞争初步竞争格局已基本形成。豆包大模型在设计上更倾向拟人化、离用户近和个性化，一大特点是能直接从抖音里搜到短视频解答比较具象的问题。而未来，个性化设计、系统承载力、模型训练能力、多模态效果和推理成本会成为每个企业需要不断跨越难点。目前国内大模型市场环境还处于初步阶段，都在极力拓展外部客户，很多客户都还处于同时与多家企业合作和接触阶段，在早期，互联网公司由于具有技术的积累和流量生态的优势，会更容易被外界关注，但最终哪家能领跑商业化变现之路，还是需要真正能解决客户需求的能力。2024年国内大模型逐渐转变为针对产业落地的行业大模型比拼，在模型框架、开发者工具、基础大模型、部署和推理工具等维度上会呈现开源和闭源共存。随着手机和汽车厂商陆续发布支持端侧AI推理的芯片或模型，AI落地端侧也成为重要布局。值得注意的是，2月份，抖音前CEO张楠从抖音转岗剪映，着手推出一个新的AI生图和视频产品。5月初，张楠交出了自己转岗后的首份作业——支持图片和视频生成的即梦AI，但目前官网显示仍处于内测阶段。初阶版视频生成能力，非会员仅支持生成3秒内容。谭待在此次发布会上坦言，企业要真正做好大模型的落地并不是一件容易的事情，有三个非常关键的挑战：第一，是模型效果，必须要有好的基础大模型才能够解决复杂的问题。第二是推理的成本，只有非常非常低的成本服务，才能够让大模型广泛的应用起来。第三是落地难度，需要有更多的工具、更多的插件、更多的平台和应用，来帮助企业在更多的场景里面非常容易地去做好大模型场景落地。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306701255319728,"gmtCreate":1715912897526,"gmtModify":1715912899099,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8764b9ea7383786f04bfd5ee5a705732","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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