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资本主义韭菜刀

资本主义韭菜刀

人狠话不多

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资本主义韭菜刀

2022-01-28

可惜卖了，不敢追了

超预期！苹果四季度营收盈利均创新高，盘后涨5%

资本主义韭菜刀

2022-01-21

一个人有优点和缺点，当他顺风顺水位高权重的时候，人们讨论的是他的优点，当他失败潦倒身无分文的时候，人们开始揭露他的缺点。一个人过好自己的生活是根本，别人的观点只是肤浅的墙头草而已。苹果同理，股票同理！

@价值投资为王:苹果2022年会不会腰斩？

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-12-03

招财臀在此，祝各位发大财！

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-11-29

$苹果(AAPL)$疫情会进一步恶化供应链问题，股价是不可能上去了，做多做空都需要谨慎，最好的选择是不参与

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-11-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$价值回归600，严重高估了

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-11-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$儿戏

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-10-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$中概股无脑做空大概率赚钱[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-08-17

开始玩饶舌了

31岁企业家开蔚来车出事故致死 “自动驾驶”该不该背锅？

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-08-04

唱空美股对你有什么好处

抱歉，原内容已删除

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-07-28

$好未来(TAL)$中概股就是一坨*，别碰

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-07-28

再说一遍，中概股别碰，OVER

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-07-23

重要的事情说三遍：别碰中概股！别碰中概股！别碰中概股！

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-07-15

$滴滴(DIDI)$中概股别碰，美股那么多核心资产

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-07-06

$微博(WB)$参照瑞辛咖啡，空！

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-07-01

$一起教育科技(YQ)$总能看成一起性教育，是我眼睛的问题吗

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-06-15

$优信(UXIN)$公司配合主力出货

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-06-14

$BOSS直聘(BZ)$何时开放做空

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-06-11

$Orphazyme A/S(ORPH)$做空不了，真亏

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-06-02

$RLX科技(RLX)$这种垃圾票再也不会多看一眼

资本主义韭菜刀

2021-05-20

$九紫新能(JZXN)$刚上市就要退市吗

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tg-width=\"782\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>截至上周五的数据显示，财报发布前，华尔街27位分析师中有22人评级“买入”，4人评级“持有”，仅有1人建议“卖出”，平均目标价为179.80美元，代表还有逾9%的升幅空间。其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、德银、Piper Sandler都将目标价提升至200美元，Evercore ISI持有华尔街最高目标价为210美元。</p><p>苹果去年频繁发布新的硬件设备与服务选项，9月传统的秋季发布会推出新一代5G<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机iPhone 13系列、新版苹果手表和iPad平板电脑，10月又推出了搭载更强大自研芯片的MacBook Pro高端笔记本电脑和下一代AirPods无线耳机，新品销售都将在本次财报中展现。</p><p><b>重要年末购物季的营收同比增11%超预期，顶住恶化的供应链压力，盈利也新高</b></p><p>在截至去年12月25日的季度中，苹果营收为1239.5亿美元，同比增11%，高于市场预期的1190.5亿美元或增近7%，并创公司史上季度营收最高，上个纪录恰好是一年前的1114亿美元。</p><p>调整后EPS为每股收益2.10美元，高于预期的1.90美元，同比增25%，净利润346.3亿美元，同比增20%，均创公司史上新高。至此，苹果盈利在21个季度里（即五年里）均跑赢市场预期。</p><p><b>不过，营收和盈利的同比增速均较去年其他季度放缓</b>。2021财年一季度时、即一年之前的营收同比曾增21.4%，当时的EPS为每股收益1.68美元曾同比增35%。</p><p>2021自然年的疫情期间，苹果产品受远程办公/居家学习和娱乐的热潮推动，这将给未来几个季度的财报同比对比带来压力。例如，2021财年二季度营收曾同比增53.6%，2021财年三季度同比增36.4%，2021财年四季度同比增28.8%，而2020财年一季度、即疫情爆发前同比增近9%。</p><p><b>Mac销售在硬件中增长最强劲，利润最高的服务收入四季新高，八季未提供指引</b></p><p>按照产品分类：</p><blockquote>第一财季iPhone收入716.3亿美元，高于预期的677.4亿美元，同比增9%并创新高，在总营收中占比近58%，比华尔街的预期略高出1个百分点。</blockquote><blockquote>Mac收入108.5亿美元，高于预期的95.3亿美元，同比增25%并创新高，在硬件中增长最强劲。</blockquote><blockquote>iPad收入72.5亿美元，低于预期的81.8亿美元，同比降14%。但这一降幅在三季报时曾被公司管理层预警，与芯片短缺有关，同时也与一年前曾同比大增41%、导致同向对比更艰难有关。</blockquote><blockquote>可穿戴设备、家居及配件收入147亿美元，高于预期的141.6亿美元，同比增13%并创新高。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568afca84be41aae84c49f92f92d681c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><blockquote>在硬件之外的另一增长引擎、苹果利润率最高的部门服务收入195.2亿美元，高于预期的186.4亿美元，同比增长 24%，连续四个季度创新高，但增速弱于上一季度的25.6%。</blockquote><blockquote>服务收入两位数大增，推动当季公司整体毛利率为43.8%，高于预期的41.7%。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ecc469da20dccc25d2fc3f2a82e9c42\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>苹果公司已连续八个季度没有提供财报指引，从2020年3月欧美疫情爆发之后便不再提供，原因是未来充满不确定性。</p><p>分析称，这是苹果在年末最重要的节假日购物季又一强劲表现。除iPad之外，每一条产品线都比上年同期增长，而且超过分析师预期。但iPhone销售额同比增速9%低于苹果的整体营收增幅。</p><p>CEO库克对财经媒体CNBC称，iPhone销量顶住了供应链限制的拖累，并承认“我们最大的问题是芯片供应”，但称主要是较低端的芯片供应有挑战，而不是旗舰手机中强大的核心处理器。他还称“通胀压力毋庸置疑”。</p><p>在本份财报中，华尔街主要寻求供应链限制和芯片短缺会如何拖累苹果的增长。库克称，财报期内的去年四季度供应问题比上一个季度更糟糕，但预计当前的1至3月季度会有所改善，供应限制会低于本次财报期内的季度，公司预计1至3月季度的收入仍将同比稳健增长。</p><p><b>大中华区销售同比大增20%继续亮眼，电话会称正探索元宇宙新技术</b></p><p>各大地理市场分区无缘集体双位数百分比大涨，仅大中华区销售最出色跳涨21%，各地区增速逊于去年前三季：</p><blockquote>当季苹果在大中华地区的销售收入为257.83亿美元，同比增近21%或增超44亿美元，一年前曾为213.1亿美元也同比大增20%，不过2021自然年前三季分别增87%、58%和56%。</blockquote><blockquote>华尔街见闻曾提到，Counterpoint数据显示，去年四季度苹果成为国内第一大智能手机供应商，市场份额达23%创新高，这是时隔六年（2015年以来）苹果在华市场份额首次重回榜首。</blockquote><blockquote>美洲市场收入同比增超11%至514.96亿美元，弱于2021自然年前三季中“最差”的同比增20%。</blockquote><blockquote>在欧洲收入同比增近9%至297.5亿美元，2021自然年前三季曾分别增56%、34%和23%。</blockquote><blockquote>在日本收入同比下降14%至71.07亿美元，2021自然年前三季曾分别增49%、30%和19%。</blockquote><blockquote>在中日以外的亚太市场收入同比增19%至98亿美元，2021自然年一季度曾接近翻倍。</blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17a019dc5a1cf8c9e2816644118605dd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></blockquote><p>公司首席财务官Luca Maestri表示，最新产品和服务的组合利好，推动整体营收和盈利实现两位数百分比增长，活跃设备安装基数升至18亿台的历史新高。在实现净现金中性的目标下，当季向股东返还近270亿美元，董事会已宣布派发每股 0.22 美元的普通股现金股息。</p><p>公司财报电话会上还透露：</p><blockquote>鉴于当前全球性的供应链危机，苹果在供应链方面的表现不错。</blockquote><blockquote>iPad供应紧张的持续时间“尤其漫长”。</blockquote><blockquote>iPhone收入在发达市场和新兴市场同时创历史新高。</blockquote><blockquote>市场对本公司新款M1 Pro MacBook Pro需求强劲，促进了Mac销售。大多数Mac销售来自搭载自研芯片的最新机型。</blockquote><blockquote>当季1/3的智能手表Apple Watch买家是初次购买。库克特意提到与新版手表相关的健康功能，并称这些业务仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote><blockquote>云、音乐、视频、支付、广告服务均创历史新高。</blockquote><blockquote>跨平台的付费订阅用户数达到7.85亿。</blockquote><blockquote>苹果在AR（虚拟现实）领域看到大量潜力。库克被问及元宇宙时称：正在探索新技术。</blockquote><p>金融博客Zerohedge认为，疫情期间的宠儿iPad销售逊于预期并同比两位数下滑，也许是一件好事，从需求下降变相说明全球正在逐渐走出新冠疫情。</p><p><b>华尔街最关心供应链造成的收入损失，期待进军电动车和元宇宙的利好消息</b></p><p>分析称，在美联储鹰派转向引发高估值的科技股年初巨震之际，苹果财报肩负起扭转科技股颓势的重任。市场高度关注供应链瓶颈和芯片短缺给苹果带来的收入损失，上个季度管理层曾预警称收入损失或至少为60亿美元，供应限制的影响在去年末相对更大，iPad销售或因此同比下跌。</p><p>尽管疫情之下的“居家办公/学习”风潮显著提振对苹果移动硬件设备的需求，疫情引发的全球供应链危机也限制了苹果供你实现更大规模的财务增长，华尔街预计未来几个季度的公司财报均将面临芯片和零部件短缺、物流延迟和上年同期财报利好带来的同向比较压力。</p><p>投行Raymond James称，苹果的供应链限制涉及摄像头模块和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">德州仪器</a>制造的电源组件，iPad平板电脑可能供应受限，因为要给占营收半壁江山的iPhone手机保留组建。供应链咨询公司Blume Global称，最近几个月物流延迟和芯片短缺没有改善迹象，苹果还需要跟<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普</a>等PC巨头，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等云计算龙头争夺芯片供应，市场关注苹果把控供应链的能力。</p><p>值得注意的是，昨日盘后公布全面利好财报、去年四季度营收和盈利均创新高的电动汽车巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，就是由于预警供应链瓶颈对业务的不利影响，而在财报次日股价暴跌超11%。这将引发市场担忧供应链对苹果近期收入的拖累，也凸显了占总收入比例三成的服务业务更加重要。</p><p>D.A. Davidson分析师Tom Forte认为，未来 12 个月苹果股价受到三个潜在催化剂驱动——与5G 相关的 iPhone 销量持续强劲；新产品类别的强劲增长，尤其是苹果手表和视频订阅Apple TV+；实现净现金中性的目标时，具有加速股票回购和发放更高股息等显著的资本回报潜力。</p><p>给予“增持”评级的摩根士丹利分析师Katy Huberty也称，营收稳定、即将推出的新产品以及在新市场扩张，使苹果在利率上升的环境中更具防御性：</p><blockquote>“苹果拥有全球市值最高的技术平台，超过16.5亿台活跃设备，以及多年来最强大的产品和服务组合。一年内的多重利好包括：5G 智能手机的持续普及、搭载自研芯片的新版Mac销售推动在PC市场份额增加、高利润率的服务业务货币化水平提升，以及强劲的现金回报。公司对增强现实、支付、健康、汽车和智能家居的长期投资有助于维持增长。”</blockquote><p>在未来业务方面，华尔街最关心苹果在电动汽车和元宇宙硬件等新市场的拓展。券商Wedbush分析师Dan Ives称，元宇宙有望将其价值提高每股20美元。有传言称苹果会在今年推出AR眼镜，在消费硬件方面的投资使其比竞争对手拥有强大优势。今年春季还将发布5G iPhone SE和新iPad。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>超预期！苹果四季度营收盈利均创新高，盘后涨5% </title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n超预期！苹果四季度营收盈利均创新高，盘后涨5% \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-28 07:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650904><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>无惧供应链和疫情挑战，苹果在重要的年末购物季营收涨11%、EPS涨25%，均创公司单季史上最高，除iPad 外的所有业务销售额均跑赢预期，手机、Mac电脑、可穿戴设备和服务齐创新高，大中华区收入最出色跳涨21%。公司八个季度未提供财报指引，CEO库克称今年初供应链改善，带动纳指100期货和供应商盘后齐涨。1月27日周四美股盘后，三周前一度成为美国首家市值超3万亿美元上市公司的科技巨头苹果，发布了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650904\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8bf4565bc4c9ea6e0ff587a10365663","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650904","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1115896222","content_text":"无惧供应链和疫情挑战，苹果在重要的年末购物季营收涨11%、EPS涨25%，均创公司单季史上最高，除iPad 外的所有业务销售额均跑赢预期，手机、Mac电脑、可穿戴设备和服务齐创新高，大中华区收入最出色跳涨21%。公司八个季度未提供财报指引，CEO库克称今年初供应链改善，带动纳指100期货和供应商盘后齐涨。1月27日周四美股盘后，三周前一度成为美国首家市值超3万亿美元上市公司的科技巨头苹果，发布了2022财年第一财季（即2021自然年第四季度）的财报。每年的10至12月历来是重要年末假日购物季，将一窥最新旗舰产品的销量情况。苹果周四涨超2%后转跌，九日连跌至两个月新低，下逼159美元，今年迄今累跌10.3%，但在科技巨头中表现相对优异，同期纳指100累跌14%。苹果已较1月3日触及盘中历史新高182.94美元跌近13%，进入技术位回调区间，去年曾累涨35%，跑赢标普大盘表现。财报显示，苹果季度营收和盈利均好于预期，同创公司史上新高。在iPhone 13销售的第一个完整季度中手机收入好于预期，与Mac电脑、可穿戴设备和服务一道创下收入最高，CEO库克还证实供应链瓶颈正在改善，盘后股价止跌转涨并涨5%，带动纳指100期货、QQQ和供应商齐涨。截至上周五的数据显示，财报发布前，华尔街27位分析师中有22人评级“买入”，4人评级“持有”，仅有1人建议“卖出”，平均目标价为179.80美元，代表还有逾9%的升幅空间。其中，摩根士丹利、德银、Piper Sandler都将目标价提升至200美元，Evercore ISI持有华尔街最高目标价为210美元。苹果去年频繁发布新的硬件设备与服务选项，9月传统的秋季发布会推出新一代5G智能手机iPhone 13系列、新版苹果手表和iPad平板电脑，10月又推出了搭载更强大自研芯片的MacBook Pro高端笔记本电脑和下一代AirPods无线耳机，新品销售都将在本次财报中展现。重要年末购物季的营收同比增11%超预期，顶住恶化的供应链压力，盈利也新高在截至去年12月25日的季度中，苹果营收为1239.5亿美元，同比增11%，高于市场预期的1190.5亿美元或增近7%，并创公司史上季度营收最高，上个纪录恰好是一年前的1114亿美元。调整后EPS为每股收益2.10美元，高于预期的1.90美元，同比增25%，净利润346.3亿美元，同比增20%，均创公司史上新高。至此，苹果盈利在21个季度里（即五年里）均跑赢市场预期。不过，营收和盈利的同比增速均较去年其他季度放缓。2021财年一季度时、即一年之前的营收同比曾增21.4%，当时的EPS为每股收益1.68美元曾同比增35%。2021自然年的疫情期间，苹果产品受远程办公/居家学习和娱乐的热潮推动，这将给未来几个季度的财报同比对比带来压力。例如，2021财年二季度营收曾同比增53.6%，2021财年三季度同比增36.4%，2021财年四季度同比增28.8%，而2020财年一季度、即疫情爆发前同比增近9%。Mac销售在硬件中增长最强劲，利润最高的服务收入四季新高，八季未提供指引按照产品分类：第一财季iPhone收入716.3亿美元，高于预期的677.4亿美元，同比增9%并创新高，在总营收中占比近58%，比华尔街的预期略高出1个百分点。Mac收入108.5亿美元，高于预期的95.3亿美元，同比增25%并创新高，在硬件中增长最强劲。iPad收入72.5亿美元，低于预期的81.8亿美元，同比降14%。但这一降幅在三季报时曾被公司管理层预警，与芯片短缺有关，同时也与一年前曾同比大增41%、导致同向对比更艰难有关。可穿戴设备、家居及配件收入147亿美元，高于预期的141.6亿美元，同比增13%并创新高。在硬件之外的另一增长引擎、苹果利润率最高的部门服务收入195.2亿美元，高于预期的186.4亿美元，同比增长 24%，连续四个季度创新高，但增速弱于上一季度的25.6%。服务收入两位数大增，推动当季公司整体毛利率为43.8%，高于预期的41.7%。苹果公司已连续八个季度没有提供财报指引，从2020年3月欧美疫情爆发之后便不再提供，原因是未来充满不确定性。分析称，这是苹果在年末最重要的节假日购物季又一强劲表现。除iPad之外，每一条产品线都比上年同期增长，而且超过分析师预期。但iPhone销售额同比增速9%低于苹果的整体营收增幅。CEO库克对财经媒体CNBC称，iPhone销量顶住了供应链限制的拖累，并承认“我们最大的问题是芯片供应”，但称主要是较低端的芯片供应有挑战，而不是旗舰手机中强大的核心处理器。他还称“通胀压力毋庸置疑”。在本份财报中，华尔街主要寻求供应链限制和芯片短缺会如何拖累苹果的增长。库克称，财报期内的去年四季度供应问题比上一个季度更糟糕，但预计当前的1至3月季度会有所改善，供应限制会低于本次财报期内的季度，公司预计1至3月季度的收入仍将同比稳健增长。大中华区销售同比大增20%继续亮眼，电话会称正探索元宇宙新技术各大地理市场分区无缘集体双位数百分比大涨，仅大中华区销售最出色跳涨21%，各地区增速逊于去年前三季：当季苹果在大中华地区的销售收入为257.83亿美元，同比增近21%或增超44亿美元，一年前曾为213.1亿美元也同比大增20%，不过2021自然年前三季分别增87%、58%和56%。华尔街见闻曾提到，Counterpoint数据显示，去年四季度苹果成为国内第一大智能手机供应商，市场份额达23%创新高，这是时隔六年（2015年以来）苹果在华市场份额首次重回榜首。美洲市场收入同比增超11%至514.96亿美元，弱于2021自然年前三季中“最差”的同比增20%。在欧洲收入同比增近9%至297.5亿美元，2021自然年前三季曾分别增56%、34%和23%。在日本收入同比下降14%至71.07亿美元，2021自然年前三季曾分别增49%、30%和19%。在中日以外的亚太市场收入同比增19%至98亿美元，2021自然年一季度曾接近翻倍。公司首席财务官Luca Maestri表示，最新产品和服务的组合利好，推动整体营收和盈利实现两位数百分比增长，活跃设备安装基数升至18亿台的历史新高。在实现净现金中性的目标下，当季向股东返还近270亿美元，董事会已宣布派发每股 0.22 美元的普通股现金股息。公司财报电话会上还透露：鉴于当前全球性的供应链危机，苹果在供应链方面的表现不错。iPad供应紧张的持续时间“尤其漫长”。iPhone收入在发达市场和新兴市场同时创历史新高。市场对本公司新款M1 Pro MacBook Pro需求强劲，促进了Mac销售。大多数Mac销售来自搭载自研芯片的最新机型。当季1/3的智能手表Apple Watch买家是初次购买。库克特意提到与新版手表相关的健康功能，并称这些业务仍处于早期阶段。云、音乐、视频、支付、广告服务均创历史新高。跨平台的付费订阅用户数达到7.85亿。苹果在AR（虚拟现实）领域看到大量潜力。库克被问及元宇宙时称：正在探索新技术。金融博客Zerohedge认为，疫情期间的宠儿iPad销售逊于预期并同比两位数下滑，也许是一件好事，从需求下降变相说明全球正在逐渐走出新冠疫情。华尔街最关心供应链造成的收入损失，期待进军电动车和元宇宙的利好消息分析称，在美联储鹰派转向引发高估值的科技股年初巨震之际，苹果财报肩负起扭转科技股颓势的重任。市场高度关注供应链瓶颈和芯片短缺给苹果带来的收入损失，上个季度管理层曾预警称收入损失或至少为60亿美元，供应限制的影响在去年末相对更大，iPad销售或因此同比下跌。尽管疫情之下的“居家办公/学习”风潮显著提振对苹果移动硬件设备的需求，疫情引发的全球供应链危机也限制了苹果供你实现更大规模的财务增长，华尔街预计未来几个季度的公司财报均将面临芯片和零部件短缺、物流延迟和上年同期财报利好带来的同向比较压力。投行Raymond James称，苹果的供应链限制涉及摄像头模块和德州仪器制造的电源组件，iPad平板电脑可能供应受限，因为要给占营收半壁江山的iPhone手机保留组建。供应链咨询公司Blume Global称，最近几个月物流延迟和芯片短缺没有改善迹象，苹果还需要跟戴尔、惠普等PC巨头，以及微软、亚马逊和谷歌等云计算龙头争夺芯片供应，市场关注苹果把控供应链的能力。值得注意的是，昨日盘后公布全面利好财报、去年四季度营收和盈利均创新高的电动汽车巨头特斯拉，就是由于预警供应链瓶颈对业务的不利影响，而在财报次日股价暴跌超11%。这将引发市场担忧供应链对苹果近期收入的拖累，也凸显了占总收入比例三成的服务业务更加重要。D.A. Davidson分析师Tom Forte认为，未来 12 个月苹果股价受到三个潜在催化剂驱动——与5G 相关的 iPhone 销量持续强劲；新产品类别的强劲增长，尤其是苹果手表和视频订阅Apple TV+；实现净现金中性的目标时，具有加速股票回购和发放更高股息等显著的资本回报潜力。给予“增持”评级的摩根士丹利分析师Katy Huberty也称，营收稳定、即将推出的新产品以及在新市场扩张，使苹果在利率上升的环境中更具防御性：“苹果拥有全球市值最高的技术平台，超过16.5亿台活跃设备，以及多年来最强大的产品和服务组合。一年内的多重利好包括：5G 智能手机的持续普及、搭载自研芯片的新版Mac销售推动在PC市场份额增加、高利润率的服务业务货币化水平提升，以及强劲的现金回报。公司对增强现实、支付、健康、汽车和智能家居的长期投资有助于维持增长。”在未来业务方面，华尔街最关心苹果在电动汽车和元宇宙硬件等新市场的拓展。券商Wedbush分析师Dan Ives称，元宇宙有望将其价值提高每股20美元。有传言称苹果会在今年推出AR眼镜，在消费硬件方面的投资使其比竞争对手拥有强大优势。今年春季还将发布5G iPhone SE和新iPad。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630172865,"gmtCreate":1642757621657,"gmtModify":1642757621657,"author":{"id":"3514760971771781","authorId":"3514760971771781","name":"资本主义韭菜刀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55fd5a83a8a61b649449a1d3b79dc451","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514760971771781","authorIdStr":"3514760971771781"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一个人有优点和缺点，当他顺风顺水位高权重的时候，人们讨论的是他的优点，当他失败潦倒身无分文的时候，人们开始揭露他的缺点。一个人过好自己的生活是根本，别人的观点只是肤浅的墙头草而已。苹果同理，股票同理！","listText":"一个人有优点和缺点，当他顺风顺水位高权重的时候，人们讨论的是他的优点，当他失败潦倒身无分文的时候，人们开始揭露他的缺点。一个人过好自己的生活是根本，别人的观点只是肤浅的墙头草而已。苹果同理，股票同理！","text":"一个人有优点和缺点，当他顺风顺水位高权重的时候，人们讨论的是他的优点，当他失败潦倒身无分文的时候，人们开始揭露他的缺点。一个人过好自己的生活是根本，别人的观点只是肤浅的墙头草而已。苹果同理，股票同理！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630172865","repostId":"630150524","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630150524,"gmtCreate":1642749575024,"gmtModify":1642773662392,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"苹果2022年会不会腰斩？","htmlText":"最近美股风波不断，龙头股各种大跌，复盘了一下苹果历年的业绩和估值情况，内心隐忧苹果可能有腰斩的风险，这里简单分享下逻辑，大家探讨一下： 首先，2021财年，苹果的营收增速高达33%，这样的情况在过去几年基本没出现过。 考虑到苹果的商业模式依赖手机销售，而iPhone新机型能否得到消费者青睐，实际上不确定性极大。 目前，苹果的市盈率在30倍左右，2022年分析师对营收增速的预测是4%左右，这么低的增长，能配得上30倍的市盈率吗？ 如果回到往年15倍市盈率，苹果的股价可能要从高点腰斩。 大家怎么看苹果？也许我的观点有点夸张了！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>","listText":"最近美股风波不断，龙头股各种大跌，复盘了一下苹果历年的业绩和估值情况，内心隐忧苹果可能有腰斩的风险，这里简单分享下逻辑，大家探讨一下： 首先，2021财年，苹果的营收增速高达33%，这样的情况在过去几年基本没出现过。 考虑到苹果的商业模式依赖手机销售，而iPhone新机型能否得到消费者青睐，实际上不确定性极大。 目前，苹果的市盈率在30倍左右，2022年分析师对营收增速的预测是4%左右，这么低的增长，能配得上30倍的市盈率吗？ 如果回到往年15倍市盈率，苹果的股价可能要从高点腰斩。 大家怎么看苹果？也许我的观点有点夸张了！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>","text":"最近美股风波不断，龙头股各种大跌，复盘了一下苹果历年的业绩和估值情况，内心隐忧苹果可能有腰斩的风险，这里简单分享下逻辑，大家探讨一下： 首先，2021财年，苹果的营收增速高达33%，这样的情况在过去几年基本没出现过。 考虑到苹果的商业模式依赖手机销售，而iPhone新机型能否得到消费者青睐，实际上不确定性极大。 目前，苹果的市盈率在30倍左右，2022年分析师对营收增速的预测是4%左右，这么低的增长，能配得上30倍的市盈率吗？ 如果回到往年15倍市盈率，苹果的股价可能要从高点腰斩。 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07:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"31岁企业家开蔚来车出事故致死 “自动驾驶”该不该背锅？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160273795","media":"中国新闻周刊","summary":"在“美一好”公众号刊出的讣告中，人们注意到其中强调了事故发生时林文钦“启用自动驾驶功能”。此前已有特斯拉在“自动驾驶”功能开启时发生事故的先例，如今自动驾驶的安全性再一次受到拷问。此次事故的焦点NOP，即领航辅助，是蔚来在2020年推出的新功能。蔚来官网称，在NOP功能开启后，驾驶者能够根据需求尽可能多的将权限交至车辆，让车辆根据导航路程进行自动接管驾驶。这一次事故的原因尚有待调查。","content":"<html><body><article><p>原标题：31岁企业家开<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>车出事故致死，“自动驾驶”该不该背锅？</p><p>车主林文钦是否完全交付驾驶权</p><p>仍有待警方调查后才能得出结论</p><p>本刊记者/陈惟杉</p><p>8月12日，“美一好”品牌创始人林文钦驾驶蔚来ES8，在启用NOP自动导航辅助驾驶功能的情况下，在沈海高速涵江段发生交通事故，不幸离世。在“美一好”公众号刊出的讣告中，人们注意到其中强调了事故发生时林文钦“启用自动驾驶功能”（NOP领航状态）。</p><p>此前已有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在“自动驾驶”功能开启时发生事故的先例，如今自动驾驶的安全性再一次受到拷问。</p><p>此次事故的焦点NOP，即领航辅助，是蔚来在2020年推出的新功能。蔚来官网称，在NOP功能开启后，驾驶者能够根据需求尽可能多的将权限交至车辆，让车辆根据导航路程进行自动接管驾驶。</p><img src=\"https://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/58/w550h308/20210817/8497-972923691aa839774c23603e7927a74c.png\"/><p>有蔚来ES8车主告诉《中国新闻周刊》，自己一般会在高速公路上开启NOP功能，在同一车道上可以实现“自动驾驶”，如果需要变道，需要驾驶员打转向灯给出指令，但他一般会在周围车辆较少时才会更多信任系统。</p><p>其实在NOP的使用指南中，蔚来特别强调，绝不能把NOP等同于自动驾驶，它是一种辅助驾驶功能，且随时可能在无法满足工作条件的情况下退出。</p><p>这一次事故的原因尚有待调查。蔚来方面回应《中国新闻周刊》称，事故正处在交警调查阶段，在结果发布前尚无法提供更多信息。</p><p>但事件发生后，仍然引发了关注和大量讨论：在自动驾驶技术迅速出现并应用的当下，目前的量产车型究竟在多大程度上实现了“自动驾驶”？特别是驾驶员与自动驾驶系统的责任边界究竟何在，让不少人感到困惑。这种模糊，可能正是一些悲剧发生的原因。</p><p>究竟何为自动驾驶？</p><p>自动驾驶是一个相对宽泛的概念，从广义上看，具备驾驶辅助功能的汽车都可以被称之为自动驾驶汽车，根据智能化程度的差异，国际自动机工程师学会（SAE）将自动驾驶分为5个等级，即从L1到L5，其中，从L2（部分自动驾驶）到L3（有条件自动驾驶）被视为真正的分水岭。</p><p>“蔚来的NOP便属于L2级，无论从技术角度，还是从法律法规角度，中国目前没有L3及以上级别的自动驾驶车辆，这就意味目前所谓自动驾驶的车辆均为L1、L2级，而这两个级别自动驾驶的本质都是由系统提供驾驶辅助服务，只是辅助功能强弱有别。”清华大学苏州汽车研究院院长助理戴一凡告诉《中国新闻周刊》，其实常见的自适应巡航（ACC）、车道保持（LKA）等功能都属于辅助驾驶功能。</p><p>按照SAE的定义，L2级指在特定的设计运行范围内，自动驾驶系统持续执行横向和纵向运动控制的动态驾驶任务，驾驶员执行失效应对和监视自动驾驶系统。也就是说，如果行驶过程中车辆能同时自主控制方向和加速、制动的话，便是L2级的自动驾驶。L2级与L3级的区别在于驾驶员承担责任的多寡。</p><p>戴一凡解释说，在L1、L2级自动驾驶中，对系统的监控、紧急情况下对车辆的接管，以及发生事故后的责任都在驾驶员，比如特斯拉产品说明书中的免责条款就清晰指出最终责任一定由人来承担。但是一旦进入L3级，便是在一定设计使用工况（ODD）下，驾驶员可以不负任何责任，只要保持可以接管车辆的状态即可，于退出ODD后接管车辆。L3级的自动驾驶可以在一定场景下让驾驶员“脱脚”“脱手”“脱眼”，也就是不必再时刻监控车辆。</p><p>如奥迪A8在几年前就宣布率先推出L3级自动驾驶车型，面向时速60公里以下的拥堵场景，但是其自动驾驶系统无法识别信号灯，没办法自主通过交叉路口，因此在快到交叉路口时会退出自动驾驶系统，提前10秒提醒驾驶员接管。但是这款车型至今尚未量产。</p><p>有律师向《中国新闻周刊》解释说，我国目前尚无法律支持L3级自动驾驶车辆商业化，如果在车辆驾驶层面发生错误导致事故，现行法律一定会追究驾驶员的责任。</p><p>据中新网报道，林文钦好友提供的数据显示，林文钦最近一次驾驶里程为85公里，总时长113分钟，平均车速为每小时45.1公里，最高速度为每小时114.6公里。NP里程72公里，NIO Pilot自动辅助驾驶功能的使用总时长48分钟，领航辅助里程68公里，时间44分钟。在整个行程过程中，只出现一次急加速现象，并没有急减速的现象。</p><p>从目前公开信息可以判断，车主林文钦确实开启了NOP功能，但是否完全交付驾驶权，仍然有待警方调查后才能得出结论，这也是事故调查中最核心的问题。</p><p>除了法律法规的障碍，实现L3的技术难度依然不小。“虽然我们现在看到开启L2级自动驾驶功能的车辆在路况较好的高速公路上行驶时，驾驶员会‘放手放脚’，甚至闭眼休息，但无论从安全还是法律角度，人始终要作为L2级自动驾驶系统的备份，当系统出现问题时人要可以介入。但是L3级自动驾驶意味着在一定场景下人不需要作为备份，这就要求系统的安全冗余设计得非常强大。”戴一凡说。</p><p>他解释说，即使L2级自动驾驶系统可以做到99分，最后1分仍然需要人作为备份去弥补，如果不再需要人作为备份，就需要系统做到无限趋近于100分，需要投入非常多的成本才能做到让人完全放心交给系统控制。</p><p>既然在L3级自动驾驶尚未真正实现，现有量产车型自动驾驶最高级别仅为L2级的情况下，保证驾驶员对于车辆的监控就很重要。何为保持对车辆的监控？戴一凡认为，底线就是保持视觉注意力的集中，不能闭眼休息，一些国外车企会比较注重在L2级自动驾驶开启后对驾驶员是否履行监控责任的监控。</p><p>比如凯迪拉克Super Cruise开启后会监控驾驶员面部朝向以及是否闭眼，特斯拉的Autopilot会监控驾驶员的手是否在方向盘上，如果长时间离开方向盘，系统会启动报警机制，甚至会自动停车。有业内人士坦言，“国内车企在这方面做得比较少。”</p><p>在这种情况下，汽车行业分析师张翔有些担心一些L2级自动驾驶车型的车主会过分信任系统。“现有的L2级自动驾驶系统更多是一种技术体验，但一些人像玩游戏一样对其上瘾，有车企也过分将其作为营销噱头。”</p><p>2019年8月，蔚来汽车副总裁沈斐曾在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>上发布一段视频，表示“NIO Pilot越来越上瘾，1点半会议结束出发，在自动辅助驾驶帮助下，放心地边吃东西边开车。”视频中清晰可见，沈斐在高速路段双手脱离方向盘。开着L2的车，误以为可以解放双手双脚，类似对车主可能产生误导的细节，在车企营销中普遍存在。</p><p>无法识别的障碍物？</p><p>即使对于L2级自动驾驶，为何车辆没有及时在障碍物面前刹停？这是导致车主死亡的另一个直接原因。</p><p>张翔告诉《中国新闻周刊》，自动驾驶可以被拆分为三个层面，首先是“感知层”，相当于人用眼睛看外面的世界，系统通过毫米波雷达、摄像头探测周边环境，再将数据传送给第二个层面“决策层”，经过计算后发出指令到“执行层”，其中任何一个环节出现问题都可能导致事故。</p><p>林文钦驾驶的蔚来ES8，是蔚来的第一款量产销售车型，也是蔚来汽车的旗舰车型，由安徽<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600418\">江淮汽车</a>集团股份有限公司代工生产，官方指导价为46.80万~62.40万元。蔚来官网显示，蔚来 ES8 配备的是NIO Pilot自动辅助驾驶硬件系统，采用1个三目前向摄像头、4个环视摄像头、5个毫米波雷达和12个超声波传感器。</p><p>8月12日下午，一辆高速公路养护车正在最左侧的车道作业，车后放置的提示雪糕筒正被工人收起，车辆低速前行。而林文钦正驾驶着开启 NOP 功能的蔚来一头撞了过来，没识别出养护车，也没有识别出驾驶员。从现场图片可见，这次撞击极为剧烈，发动机盖已经扭曲变形，A柱直接被压扁，顶棚出现严重挤压变形，车辆左前和驾驶位车门严重变形，前轮严重受损。也就是说，这辆车“毫不犹豫”地撞了上去。</p><p>在业内人士看来，这一环境确实比较复杂，识别难度比较高。戴一凡认为，首先路政车辆外形与普通轿车不同，这首先就给识别带来障碍。另外“雪糕筒”在摆放时往往区别于车道线，雷达可能既识别出“雪糕筒”的位置也识别出车道线位置，会在决策时产生一定困惑。</p><p>“从现有案例看，自动驾驶出现问题多集中在环境感知层面，换句话说就是没有‘看到’障碍物，或者在‘看到’障碍物的情况下有没有正确识别。”戴一凡说。</p><p>蔚来的NIO Pilot自动驾驶辅助系统采用毫米波雷达+摄像头的技术路线，这一技术路线对静止或缓行车辆、物体的检测存在困难。蔚来在NOP的用户手册里明确强调：车辆与前车相对速度大于50公里/小时时，如前车静止或缓行，Pilot存在无法刹停的风险。为保证安全，出现上述情况时，请您立即退出Pilot，切勿在上述情况尝试Pilot对静止车辆刹停或跟停前车。</p><p>造成这一缺陷的原因是什么？</p><p>有毫米波雷达传感器厂商负责人告诉《中国新闻周刊》，不同于红外、微波，毫米波可以精准设置感知区域，比如避免一些红外感应的自动门出现误开的情况。毫米波的另一个优势就是可以比较好地感知静止物体，而且没有盲区。感知到静止物体其实对其他类型的传感器并不容易，比如一些植保无人机在飞行时需要避开一些较细的电线，通过毫米波传感器可以在50米距离内检测到从而避开。除了车载应用，其实毫米波非常适于一些智能家居的场景应用，比如智能化灯具，因为人在室内经常处于静止状态。</p><p>那么为什么会出现搭载毫米波雷达的车辆无法避开静止或缓慢移动物体的情况？</p><p>“毫米波雷达并非不能识别静止物体，但是在做算法时一些静止物体会被滤掉。”戴一凡解释说，如果全部采信毫米波雷达报告的静止物体，可能会有很多误报，比如路上的交通标志牌、地上凸起的减速带，甚至一些低于路面的井盖，毫米波雷达会很敏感地识别出这些静止物体，如果都上报的话会导致车辆不停刹车。“因此一些企业在设定算法时就会将这些静止的物体滤掉，造成的问题是如果前方真的有一个静止的障碍物，有一定概率会被毫米波雷达的算法过滤掉。”</p><p>责任编辑：蒋晓桐</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n31岁企业家开蔚来车出事故致死 “自动驾驶”该不该背锅？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 07:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210817073310788b80db&s=b><strong>中国新闻周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：31岁企业家开蔚来车出事故致死，“自动驾驶”该不该背锅？车主林文钦是否完全交付驾驶权仍有待警方调查后才能得出结论本刊记者/陈惟杉8月12日，“美一好”品牌创始人林文钦驾驶蔚来ES8，在启用NOP自动导航辅助驾驶功能的情况下，在沈海高速涵江段发生交通事故，不幸离世。在“美一好”公众号刊出的讣告中，人们注意到其中强调了事故发生时林文钦“启用自动驾驶功能”（NOP领航状态）。此前已有特斯拉在“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210817073310788b80db&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0090cc485ea4ba6d267489389e83608b","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20210817073310788b80db&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2160273795","content_text":"原标题：31岁企业家开蔚来车出事故致死，“自动驾驶”该不该背锅？车主林文钦是否完全交付驾驶权仍有待警方调查后才能得出结论本刊记者/陈惟杉8月12日，“美一好”品牌创始人林文钦驾驶蔚来ES8，在启用NOP自动导航辅助驾驶功能的情况下，在沈海高速涵江段发生交通事故，不幸离世。在“美一好”公众号刊出的讣告中，人们注意到其中强调了事故发生时林文钦“启用自动驾驶功能”（NOP领航状态）。此前已有特斯拉在“自动驾驶”功能开启时发生事故的先例，如今自动驾驶的安全性再一次受到拷问。此次事故的焦点NOP，即领航辅助，是蔚来在2020年推出的新功能。蔚来官网称，在NOP功能开启后，驾驶者能够根据需求尽可能多的将权限交至车辆，让车辆根据导航路程进行自动接管驾驶。有蔚来ES8车主告诉《中国新闻周刊》，自己一般会在高速公路上开启NOP功能，在同一车道上可以实现“自动驾驶”，如果需要变道，需要驾驶员打转向灯给出指令，但他一般会在周围车辆较少时才会更多信任系统。其实在NOP的使用指南中，蔚来特别强调，绝不能把NOP等同于自动驾驶，它是一种辅助驾驶功能，且随时可能在无法满足工作条件的情况下退出。这一次事故的原因尚有待调查。蔚来方面回应《中国新闻周刊》称，事故正处在交警调查阶段，在结果发布前尚无法提供更多信息。但事件发生后，仍然引发了关注和大量讨论：在自动驾驶技术迅速出现并应用的当下，目前的量产车型究竟在多大程度上实现了“自动驾驶”？特别是驾驶员与自动驾驶系统的责任边界究竟何在，让不少人感到困惑。这种模糊，可能正是一些悲剧发生的原因。究竟何为自动驾驶？自动驾驶是一个相对宽泛的概念，从广义上看，具备驾驶辅助功能的汽车都可以被称之为自动驾驶汽车，根据智能化程度的差异，国际自动机工程师学会（SAE）将自动驾驶分为5个等级，即从L1到L5，其中，从L2（部分自动驾驶）到L3（有条件自动驾驶）被视为真正的分水岭。“蔚来的NOP便属于L2级，无论从技术角度，还是从法律法规角度，中国目前没有L3及以上级别的自动驾驶车辆，这就意味目前所谓自动驾驶的车辆均为L1、L2级，而这两个级别自动驾驶的本质都是由系统提供驾驶辅助服务，只是辅助功能强弱有别。”清华大学苏州汽车研究院院长助理戴一凡告诉《中国新闻周刊》，其实常见的自适应巡航（ACC）、车道保持（LKA）等功能都属于辅助驾驶功能。按照SAE的定义，L2级指在特定的设计运行范围内，自动驾驶系统持续执行横向和纵向运动控制的动态驾驶任务，驾驶员执行失效应对和监视自动驾驶系统。也就是说，如果行驶过程中车辆能同时自主控制方向和加速、制动的话，便是L2级的自动驾驶。L2级与L3级的区别在于驾驶员承担责任的多寡。戴一凡解释说，在L1、L2级自动驾驶中，对系统的监控、紧急情况下对车辆的接管，以及发生事故后的责任都在驾驶员，比如特斯拉产品说明书中的免责条款就清晰指出最终责任一定由人来承担。但是一旦进入L3级，便是在一定设计使用工况（ODD）下，驾驶员可以不负任何责任，只要保持可以接管车辆的状态即可，于退出ODD后接管车辆。L3级的自动驾驶可以在一定场景下让驾驶员“脱脚”“脱手”“脱眼”，也就是不必再时刻监控车辆。如奥迪A8在几年前就宣布率先推出L3级自动驾驶车型，面向时速60公里以下的拥堵场景，但是其自动驾驶系统无法识别信号灯，没办法自主通过交叉路口，因此在快到交叉路口时会退出自动驾驶系统，提前10秒提醒驾驶员接管。但是这款车型至今尚未量产。有律师向《中国新闻周刊》解释说，我国目前尚无法律支持L3级自动驾驶车辆商业化，如果在车辆驾驶层面发生错误导致事故，现行法律一定会追究驾驶员的责任。据中新网报道，林文钦好友提供的数据显示，林文钦最近一次驾驶里程为85公里，总时长113分钟，平均车速为每小时45.1公里，最高速度为每小时114.6公里。NP里程72公里，NIO Pilot自动辅助驾驶功能的使用总时长48分钟，领航辅助里程68公里，时间44分钟。在整个行程过程中，只出现一次急加速现象，并没有急减速的现象。从目前公开信息可以判断，车主林文钦确实开启了NOP功能，但是否完全交付驾驶权，仍然有待警方调查后才能得出结论，这也是事故调查中最核心的问题。除了法律法规的障碍，实现L3的技术难度依然不小。“虽然我们现在看到开启L2级自动驾驶功能的车辆在路况较好的高速公路上行驶时，驾驶员会‘放手放脚’，甚至闭眼休息，但无论从安全还是法律角度，人始终要作为L2级自动驾驶系统的备份，当系统出现问题时人要可以介入。但是L3级自动驾驶意味着在一定场景下人不需要作为备份，这就要求系统的安全冗余设计得非常强大。”戴一凡说。他解释说，即使L2级自动驾驶系统可以做到99分，最后1分仍然需要人作为备份去弥补，如果不再需要人作为备份，就需要系统做到无限趋近于100分，需要投入非常多的成本才能做到让人完全放心交给系统控制。既然在L3级自动驾驶尚未真正实现，现有量产车型自动驾驶最高级别仅为L2级的情况下，保证驾驶员对于车辆的监控就很重要。何为保持对车辆的监控？戴一凡认为，底线就是保持视觉注意力的集中，不能闭眼休息，一些国外车企会比较注重在L2级自动驾驶开启后对驾驶员是否履行监控责任的监控。比如凯迪拉克Super Cruise开启后会监控驾驶员面部朝向以及是否闭眼，特斯拉的Autopilot会监控驾驶员的手是否在方向盘上，如果长时间离开方向盘，系统会启动报警机制，甚至会自动停车。有业内人士坦言，“国内车企在这方面做得比较少。”在这种情况下，汽车行业分析师张翔有些担心一些L2级自动驾驶车型的车主会过分信任系统。“现有的L2级自动驾驶系统更多是一种技术体验，但一些人像玩游戏一样对其上瘾，有车企也过分将其作为营销噱头。”2019年8月，蔚来汽车副总裁沈斐曾在微博上发布一段视频，表示“NIO Pilot越来越上瘾，1点半会议结束出发，在自动辅助驾驶帮助下，放心地边吃东西边开车。”视频中清晰可见，沈斐在高速路段双手脱离方向盘。开着L2的车，误以为可以解放双手双脚，类似对车主可能产生误导的细节，在车企营销中普遍存在。无法识别的障碍物？即使对于L2级自动驾驶，为何车辆没有及时在障碍物面前刹停？这是导致车主死亡的另一个直接原因。张翔告诉《中国新闻周刊》，自动驾驶可以被拆分为三个层面，首先是“感知层”，相当于人用眼睛看外面的世界，系统通过毫米波雷达、摄像头探测周边环境，再将数据传送给第二个层面“决策层”，经过计算后发出指令到“执行层”，其中任何一个环节出现问题都可能导致事故。林文钦驾驶的蔚来ES8，是蔚来的第一款量产销售车型，也是蔚来汽车的旗舰车型，由安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司代工生产，官方指导价为46.80万~62.40万元。蔚来官网显示，蔚来 ES8 配备的是NIO Pilot自动辅助驾驶硬件系统，采用1个三目前向摄像头、4个环视摄像头、5个毫米波雷达和12个超声波传感器。8月12日下午，一辆高速公路养护车正在最左侧的车道作业，车后放置的提示雪糕筒正被工人收起，车辆低速前行。而林文钦正驾驶着开启 NOP 功能的蔚来一头撞了过来，没识别出养护车，也没有识别出驾驶员。从现场图片可见，这次撞击极为剧烈，发动机盖已经扭曲变形，A柱直接被压扁，顶棚出现严重挤压变形，车辆左前和驾驶位车门严重变形，前轮严重受损。也就是说，这辆车“毫不犹豫”地撞了上去。在业内人士看来，这一环境确实比较复杂，识别难度比较高。戴一凡认为，首先路政车辆外形与普通轿车不同，这首先就给识别带来障碍。另外“雪糕筒”在摆放时往往区别于车道线，雷达可能既识别出“雪糕筒”的位置也识别出车道线位置，会在决策时产生一定困惑。“从现有案例看，自动驾驶出现问题多集中在环境感知层面，换句话说就是没有‘看到’障碍物，或者在‘看到’障碍物的情况下有没有正确识别。”戴一凡说。蔚来的NIO Pilot自动驾驶辅助系统采用毫米波雷达+摄像头的技术路线，这一技术路线对静止或缓行车辆、物体的检测存在困难。蔚来在NOP的用户手册里明确强调：车辆与前车相对速度大于50公里/小时时，如前车静止或缓行，Pilot存在无法刹停的风险。为保证安全，出现上述情况时，请您立即退出Pilot，切勿在上述情况尝试Pilot对静止车辆刹停或跟停前车。造成这一缺陷的原因是什么？有毫米波雷达传感器厂商负责人告诉《中国新闻周刊》，不同于红外、微波，毫米波可以精准设置感知区域，比如避免一些红外感应的自动门出现误开的情况。毫米波的另一个优势就是可以比较好地感知静止物体，而且没有盲区。感知到静止物体其实对其他类型的传感器并不容易，比如一些植保无人机在飞行时需要避开一些较细的电线，通过毫米波传感器可以在50米距离内检测到从而避开。除了车载应用，其实毫米波非常适于一些智能家居的场景应用，比如智能化灯具，因为人在室内经常处于静止状态。那么为什么会出现搭载毫米波雷达的车辆无法避开静止或缓慢移动物体的情况？“毫米波雷达并非不能识别静止物体，但是在做算法时一些静止物体会被滤掉。”戴一凡解释说，如果全部采信毫米波雷达报告的静止物体，可能会有很多误报，比如路上的交通标志牌、地上凸起的减速带，甚至一些低于路面的井盖，毫米波雷达会很敏感地识别出这些静止物体，如果都上报的话会导致车辆不停刹车。“因此一些企业在设定算法时就会将这些静止的物体滤掉，造成的问题是如果前方真的有一个静止的障碍物，有一定概率会被毫米波雷达的算法过滤掉。”责任编辑：蒋晓桐","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":807152344,"gmtCreate":1628010371888,"gmtModify":1628010371888,"author":{"id":"3514760971771781","authorId":"3514760971771781","name":"资本主义韭菜刀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55fd5a83a8a61b649449a1d3b79dc451","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514760971771781","authorIdStr":"3514760971771781"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"唱空美股对你有什么好处","listText":"唱空美股对你有什么好处","text":"唱空美股对你有什么好处","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807152344","repostId":"1190031234","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801363198,"gmtCreate":1627483171314,"gmtModify":1627483171314,"author":{"id":"3514760971771781","authorId":"3514760971771781","name":"资本主义韭菜刀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55fd5a83a8a61b649449a1d3b79dc451","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514760971771781","authorIdStr":"3514760971771781"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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