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十四叔
2020-04-01
$朴新教育(NEW)$
朴新真不应该是这个价格,按照它的业绩表现,就应该在8-12元之间波动。
十四叔
2021-04-14
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
空了三笔,小赚了1200。今天只做空[得意]
十四叔
2020-07-23
$朴新教育(NEW)$
这么点交易量也能拉到这么高的价
十四叔
2021-04-21
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
盘前就是在诱空。15分钟级别均线金叉,MACD的DIF和DEA金叉,开盘后低开可能会导致缠绕,短线贴近高一级长线,但很快就会涨起来。看量价,整体趋势这支股票下行的可能还是偏大。
十四叔
2021-03-11
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
看形态今天应该不会到20,接下来应该会回到16块左右,然后再上行到19.37左右
十四叔
2021-03-17
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
正常波动,没啥大惊小怪。我计算出了三个回调买入位置,供参考:第一个是18.28,我在这加了一笔;第二个位置在17.50左右,未来2个半小时如果到不了这个位置,而且还反弹了,那就暂时不用期待了。如果能到达17.50左右,那明天就还会继续调整到达17.00-16.80左右结束。仅供参考。
十四叔
2021-04-22
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
今天日内交易中相对大range的做多基本结束了,15分钟级别的均线已经死叉,MACD的DEA和DIF形成死叉后就可以做空了,大概就是1分钟级别再次形成双死叉的时候
十四叔
2021-04-27
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
山雨欲来风满楼!
十四叔
2021-02-27
$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$
WSB党对CCIV起不了多大作用
十四叔
2021-02-06
$流利说(LAIX)$
WSB开始,美股就失序了。昨天AACG长了1400%,现在跌倒6块多。盘前能空,开盘后做空显示无法交易,后来显示不能做空。同样的手法,昨天还做了另外几个教育标的垃圾股。今天做的是流利说。我观察他们的手法,就是从不同的板块挑选同质化较弱的垃圾股或僵尸股,使劲拉升,分阶段出货。这种操作,如果他们也不能做空的话,其实盈利有限。所以,我猜测,联合作业的可能性大。此外,他们在评论区会提前埋伏,评论估值太低,可能马上大涨。套路完全一致!
十四叔
2020-11-19
$朴新教育(NEW)$
两个小时了才7万多成交量,全天才30万左右,连日内交易公司个股入手的最低线都达不到。交易员们不碰,就剩下几个散户在那自己跟自己玩了。这个题材的发展方向一片茫然,静等回到5元时代。
十四叔
2020-08-04
$朴新教育(NEW)$
上周9.75-10.16买入的头寸出尽了。如果明天日线继续在上趋势线之上,那可真有值得期待的了。
十四叔
2021-02-06
$ATA Creativity Global(AACG)$
自WSB党起,美股就失序了。昨天AACG在没有任何利好的情况下,突然暴涨,最高时涨了1400%多,再从19.75一路跌到今天的6块多。 接下来,“流利说”今天上演了同样的一幕!于是各种媒体大放厥词,什么“中概股掀起逼空风暴”,什么“中概股组团暴涨”!自从媒体学了个词叫“逼空”,于是把什么都叫“逼空”,好像不“装I3”一下,都显示不出自己有多SI3! 这两支股票都是从盘前开始暴涨,但开盘后先是空头无法成交,后来根本不让做空了!同样手法,不同的标的。太TM流氓了! 怀着疑惑我开始整理他们的套路,发现暴涨的不能被做空,能做空的都没暴涨。换言之,能被做空的不是他们所选标的,只是借着热度坐车受益而已。 然后发现,这些暴涨的标的都是教育板块里日交易量极低,同质化较弱的股票。几天前在评论区“疑似托儿”开始发帖评论标的被低估,大涨即将到来,极力唱多。 问题来了,做多是有成本代价的,如果只拉高股价,却不能做空,就没法狠狠割韭菜!不能狠狠割韭菜,那这场诱多又有什么意义呢?只是为了赚个零花钱? 散户融不到券,并不意味着散户之外的势力融不到,但这手法肯定与WSB党无关,那会是谁呢?我有答案,你有吗? 最后补充一句,这种套路在未来几个交易日,一定会被用在其它板块上!或者,已经用在了其它版块上,只是我没关注到而已!
十四叔
2020-11-21
$优客工场(UK)$
我发的帖子怎么没了?重发一遍。优客工场的估值太高,它的商业模式受政策和商业环境的影响太大,不看好。就目前日交易量,跟僵尸股无异,大概率未来6个月也就在5-8.5之间波动吧。
十四叔
2020-08-01
$朴新教育(NEW)$
感谢一到75就买入的兄台[开心]
十四叔
2020-03-10
请问作者,您喝了多少假酒才能写出这篇文章呢?
A股 VS 美股,可能的历史大背离
十四叔
2021-02-06
$流利说(LAIX)$
今天发过一个短贴,实在看不下去还有人入坑,遂决定发一长贴。自WSB党起,美股就失序了。昨天一支代码为AACG的中概教育股在没有任何利好的情况下,突然暴涨,最高时涨了1400%多,再从19.75一路跌到今天的6块多。 接下来,“流利说”今天上演了同样的一幕!于是各种媒体大放厥词,什么“中概股掀起逼空风暴”,什么“中概股组团暴涨”!自从媒体学了个词叫“逼空”,于是把什么都叫“逼空”,好像不“装I3”一下,都显示不出自己有多SI3! 这两支股票都是从盘前开始暴涨,但开盘后先是空头无法成交,后来根本不让做空了!同样手法,不同的标的。太TM流氓了! 怀着疑惑我开始整理他们的套路,发现暴涨的不能被做空,能做空的都没暴涨。换言之,能被做空的不是他们所选标的,只是借着热度坐车受益而已。 然后发现,这些暴涨的标的都是教育板块里日交易量极低,同质化较弱的股票。几天前在评论区“疑似托儿”开始发帖评论标的被低估,大涨即将到来,极力唱多。 问题来了,做多是有成本代价的,如果只拉高股价,却不能做空,就没法狠狠割韭菜!不能狠狠割韭菜,那这场诱多又有什么意义呢?只是为了赚个零花钱? 散户融不到券,并不意味着散户之外的势力融不到,但这手法肯定与WSB党无关,那会是谁呢?我有答案,你有吗? 最后补充一句,这种套路在未来几个交易日,一定会被用在其它板块上!或者,已经用在了其它版块上,只是我没关注到而已!
十四叔
2021-01-05
1月21日有啥好期待?
美国大选前两周到今天,关于各种势力要借大选,或是要在明年新一届总统上台后做空美股的小道消息充斥于耳,对于这种消息我特别不屑,因为大盘指数不会单纯因为“消息”而被做空。当然,“重大消息”本身可以放大焦虑和恐慌,成为压死骆驼的最后一根稻草。但真正搞死骆驼的其实是市场参与者对未来的强同步悲观预期,稻草只是让大多数市场参与者被动且迅速地达成了共识。 我并不是说“消息”不能作为证券分析的方法,但它绝不是孤立存在的。证券分析主要有两种方法,一是基本面分析,二是技术分析,两者互补。但基本面分析有自己的不足。当公众了解到利空或利多信息,也就是所谓的“消息”时,一般都已经错过了黄金买点,黄金坑变成了真陷阱,这时做任何动作都是错的。 业余选手特别痴迷各种“内幕消息”和各种马后炮的新闻、评论。似乎只有这样才能把握市场趋势。勒庞在《乌合之众》中这样写道:“群体相信一切不可能的事情,相信一切不合逻辑的事情,相信一切不合情理,相信一切不存在的事情,但唯独——不相信现实生活的日常逻辑。”他们忽略了一个事实,能够说出来的秘密就不再是秘密,而“内幕”不会第一时间告诉大众。同样,当新闻见诸报端的时候,它的影响力早已经被市场主要运动趋势消化了。 100多年前,汉密尔顿就坚信人为操纵无法撼动股市主要运动。并多次用社论文章阐述观点。汉密尔顿所说的主要运动,并不是指个股的主要运动,而是指大盘指数的变化。 “少数几只股票能被操纵一时,并且可能会导致我们对局势的判断完全错误。但是,不可能操纵所有的股票,因此20只活跃股票的平均价格的变化足够重要,以至于我们能从中做出市场发展的
1月21日有啥好期待?
十四叔
2020-07-23
$朴新教育(NEW)$
记得三月大跌的时候我发过一个贴,按照朴新当时的业绩估值应该在8-12元之间波动。因为停课,朴新的财报理论上不会比上一个季度漂亮。所以,到12合理,情绪性的再高一元可以接受,但过12后我肯定空。
十四叔
2021-04-23
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
高台跳水前已经预警了,在1分钟和5分钟级别的图表中,虽然M5还在上行,但与M10反复纠缠,5分钟级别图标中MACD的红绿柱子缩量到了一点点高,这种大背离情形,只要有人放量做空就会瞬间下来。现在15分钟级别的M5和M10马上要死叉了,DIF和DEA已经死叉,双死叉见红柱后,基本收盘前都可以做空了。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>盘前就是在诱空。15分钟级别均线金叉,MACD的DIF和DEA金叉,开盘后低开可能会导致缠绕,短线贴近高一级长线,但很快就会涨起来。看量价,整体趋势这支股票下行的可能还是偏大。","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$盘前就是在诱空。15分钟级别均线金叉,MACD的DIF和DEA金叉,开盘后低开可能会导致缠绕,短线贴近高一级长线,但很快就会涨起来。看量价,整体趋势这支股票下行的可能还是偏大。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378186817","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"content":"听我一句劝,早点放弃沉迷技术分析。去分析公司背后的财报和行业前景等资料,才是正确的投资方法之一","text":"听我一句劝,早点放弃沉迷技术分析。去分析公司背后的财报和行业前景等资料,才是正确的投资方法之一","html":"听我一句劝,早点放弃沉迷技术分析。去分析公司背后的财报和行业前景等资料,才是正确的投资方法之一"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347643009,"gmtCreate":1618494795901,"gmtModify":1618495225863,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3507240061971742","idStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>第一笔500股20.65空,19.20平仓止盈。第二笔准备多了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>第一笔500股20.65空,19.20平仓止盈。第二笔准备多了。","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$第一笔500股20.65空,19.20平仓止盈。第二笔准备多了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347643009","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":344530671,"gmtCreate":1618413863193,"gmtModify":1618413863193,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3507240061971742","idStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>空了三笔,小赚了1200。今天只做空[得意] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>空了三笔,小赚了1200。今天只做空[得意] 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>正常波动,没啥大惊小怪。我计算出了三个回调买入位置,供参考:第一个是18.28,我在这加了一笔;第二个位置在17.50左右,未来2个半小时如果到不了这个位置,而且还反弹了,那就暂时不用期待了。如果能到达17.50左右,那明天就还会继续调整到达17.00-16.80左右结束。仅供参考。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>正常波动,没啥大惊小怪。我计算出了三个回调买入位置,供参考:第一个是18.28,我在这加了一笔;第二个位置在17.50左右,未来2个半小时如果到不了这个位置,而且还反弹了,那就暂时不用期待了。如果能到达17.50左右,那明天就还会继续调整到达17.00-16.80左右结束。仅供参考。","text":"$ContextLogic 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Inc.(WISH)$正常波动,没啥大惊小怪。我计算出了三个回调买入位置,供参考:第一个是18.28,我在这加了一笔;第二个位置在17.50左右,未来2个半小时如果到不了这个位置,而且还反弹了,那就暂时不用期待了。如果能到达17.50左右,那明天就还会继续调整到达17.00-16.80左右结束。仅供参考。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325468580","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3835,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546080129543708","authorId":"3546080129543708","name":"星辰海_7631","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e333d1ab4c773a9551d17ff74f73e17c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3546080129543708","idStr":"3546080129543708"},"content":"你好,今晚怎么看","text":"你好,今晚怎么看","html":"你好,今晚怎么看"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328075375,"gmtCreate":1615476877697,"gmtModify":1703489733283,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3507240061971742","idStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>看形态今天应该不会到20,接下来应该会回到16块左右,然后再上行到19.37左右","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>看形态今天应该不会到20,接下来应该会回到16块左右,然后再上行到19.37左右","text":"$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$看形态今天应该不会到20,接下来应该会回到16块左右,然后再上行到19.37左右","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328075375","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3496796123976871","authorId":"3496796123976871","name":"强东哥让我不敢再全仓了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3b2b72b9a4e7338ed7df86a59e72b0f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3496796123976871","idStr":"3496796123976871"},"content":"你这真的是睁着眼睛说瞎话,19.37都能猜出来","text":"你这真的是睁着眼睛说瞎话,19.37都能猜出来","html":"你这真的是睁着眼睛说瞎话,19.37都能猜出来"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321304230,"gmtCreate":1615391942920,"gmtModify":1703488465591,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3507240061971742","idStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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IV(CCIV)$</a>按这节奏,下周一就到16块多了,到时再加仓吧。","text":"$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$按这节奏,下周一就到16块多了,到时再加仓吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367032086","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365122536,"gmtCreate":1614705918825,"gmtModify":1703480204352,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3507240061971742","idStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$</a>没啥大惊小怪,起码未来6-7个交易日都会处在底部盘整状态,股价在26-33之间波动。当然,技术分析是没有绝对的,但却是有概率最大的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCIV\">$Churchill Capital Corp 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IV(CCIV)$WSB党对CCIV起不了多大作用","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7beb7dc0448861ba0bf08ec81823c60e","width":"1283","height":"1219"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366078060","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380592494,"gmtCreate":1612547516318,"gmtModify":1703763585614,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">$流利说(LAIX)$</a> 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WSB开始,美股就失序了。昨天AACG长了1400%,现在跌倒6块多。盘前能空,开盘后做空显示无法交易,后来显示不能做空。同样的手法,昨天还做了另外几个教育标的垃圾股。今天做的是流利说。我观察他们的手法,就是从不同的板块挑选同质化较弱的垃圾股或僵尸股,使劲拉升,分阶段出货。这种操作,如果他们也不能做空的话,其实盈利有限。所以,我猜测,联合作业的可能性大。此外,他们在评论区会提前埋伏,评论估值太低,可能马上大涨。套路完全一致!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380592494","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390264563,"gmtCreate":1605799860152,"gmtModify":1703839747555,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEW\">$朴新教育(NEW)$</a>两个小时了才7万多成交量,全天才30万左右,连日内交易公司个股入手的最低线都达不到。交易员们不碰,就剩下几个散户在那自己跟自己玩了。这个题材的发展方向一片茫然,静等回到5元时代。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEW\">$朴新教育(NEW)$</a>两个小时了才7万多成交量,全天才30万左右,连日内交易公司个股入手的最低线都达不到。交易员们不碰,就剩下几个散户在那自己跟自己玩了。这个题材的发展方向一片茫然,静等回到5元时代。","text":"$朴新教育(NEW)$两个小时了才7万多成交量,全天才30万左右,连日内交易公司个股入手的最低线都达不到。交易员们不碰,就剩下几个散户在那自己跟自己玩了。这个题材的发展方向一片茫然,静等回到5元时代。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390264563","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"content":"仔细看了看,这货跌到5元还真不容易,6元可期。形态跟德纳维制药相似,大尾巴三浪绵延不绝。","text":"仔细看了看,这货跌到5元还真不容易,6元可期。形态跟德纳维制药相似,大尾巴三浪绵延不绝。","html":"仔细看了看,这货跌到5元还真不容易,6元可期。形态跟德纳维制药相似,大尾巴三浪绵延不绝。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945628425,"gmtCreate":1596551156167,"gmtModify":1704212655743,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEW\">$朴新教育(NEW)$</a>上周9.75-10.16买入的头寸出尽了。如果明天日线继续在上趋势线之上,那可真有值得期待的了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEW\">$朴新教育(NEW)$</a>上周9.75-10.16买入的头寸出尽了。如果明天日线继续在上趋势线之上,那可真有值得期待的了。","text":"$朴新教育(NEW)$上周9.75-10.16买入的头寸出尽了。如果明天日线继续在上趋势线之上,那可真有值得期待的了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87aa67d2d233af4cbc0b8d26dded1575","width":"1032","height":"512"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945628425","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380784052,"gmtCreate":1612591709676,"gmtModify":1703763900943,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AACG\">$ATA Creativity Global(AACG)$</a>自WSB党起,美股就失序了。昨天AACG在没有任何利好的情况下,突然暴涨,最高时涨了1400%多,再从19.75一路跌到今天的6块多。 接下来,“流利说”今天上演了同样的一幕!于是各种媒体大放厥词,什么“中概股掀起逼空风暴”,什么“中概股组团暴涨”!自从媒体学了个词叫“逼空”,于是把什么都叫“逼空”,好像不“装I3”一下,都显示不出自己有多SI3! 这两支股票都是从盘前开始暴涨,但开盘后先是空头无法成交,后来根本不让做空了!同样手法,不同的标的。太TM流氓了! 怀着疑惑我开始整理他们的套路,发现暴涨的不能被做空,能做空的都没暴涨。换言之,能被做空的不是他们所选标的,只是借着热度坐车受益而已。 然后发现,这些暴涨的标的都是教育板块里日交易量极低,同质化较弱的股票。几天前在评论区“疑似托儿”开始发帖评论标的被低估,大涨即将到来,极力唱多。 问题来了,做多是有成本代价的,如果只拉高股价,却不能做空,就没法狠狠割韭菜!不能狠狠割韭菜,那这场诱多又有什么意义呢?只是为了赚个零花钱? 散户融不到券,并不意味着散户之外的势力融不到,但这手法肯定与WSB党无关,那会是谁呢?我有答案,你有吗? 最后补充一句,这种套路在未来几个交易日,一定会被用在其它板块上!或者,已经用在了其它版块上,只是我没关注到而已!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AACG\">$ATA Creativity Global(AACG)$</a>自WSB党起,美股就失序了。昨天AACG在没有任何利好的情况下,突然暴涨,最高时涨了1400%多,再从19.75一路跌到今天的6块多。 接下来,“流利说”今天上演了同样的一幕!于是各种媒体大放厥词,什么“中概股掀起逼空风暴”,什么“中概股组团暴涨”!自从媒体学了个词叫“逼空”,于是把什么都叫“逼空”,好像不“装I3”一下,都显示不出自己有多SI3! 这两支股票都是从盘前开始暴涨,但开盘后先是空头无法成交,后来根本不让做空了!同样手法,不同的标的。太TM流氓了! 怀着疑惑我开始整理他们的套路,发现暴涨的不能被做空,能做空的都没暴涨。换言之,能被做空的不是他们所选标的,只是借着热度坐车受益而已。 然后发现,这些暴涨的标的都是教育板块里日交易量极低,同质化较弱的股票。几天前在评论区“疑似托儿”开始发帖评论标的被低估,大涨即将到来,极力唱多。 问题来了,做多是有成本代价的,如果只拉高股价,却不能做空,就没法狠狠割韭菜!不能狠狠割韭菜,那这场诱多又有什么意义呢?只是为了赚个零花钱? 散户融不到券,并不意味着散户之外的势力融不到,但这手法肯定与WSB党无关,那会是谁呢?我有答案,你有吗? 最后补充一句,这种套路在未来几个交易日,一定会被用在其它板块上!或者,已经用在了其它版块上,只是我没关注到而已!","text":"$ATA Creativity Global(AACG)$自WSB党起,美股就失序了。昨天AACG在没有任何利好的情况下,突然暴涨,最高时涨了1400%多,再从19.75一路跌到今天的6块多。 接下来,“流利说”今天上演了同样的一幕!于是各种媒体大放厥词,什么“中概股掀起逼空风暴”,什么“中概股组团暴涨”!自从媒体学了个词叫“逼空”,于是把什么都叫“逼空”,好像不“装I3”一下,都显示不出自己有多SI3! 这两支股票都是从盘前开始暴涨,但开盘后先是空头无法成交,后来根本不让做空了!同样手法,不同的标的。太TM流氓了! 怀着疑惑我开始整理他们的套路,发现暴涨的不能被做空,能做空的都没暴涨。换言之,能被做空的不是他们所选标的,只是借着热度坐车受益而已。 然后发现,这些暴涨的标的都是教育板块里日交易量极低,同质化较弱的股票。几天前在评论区“疑似托儿”开始发帖评论标的被低估,大涨即将到来,极力唱多。 问题来了,做多是有成本代价的,如果只拉高股价,却不能做空,就没法狠狠割韭菜!不能狠狠割韭菜,那这场诱多又有什么意义呢?只是为了赚个零花钱? 散户融不到券,并不意味着散户之外的势力融不到,但这手法肯定与WSB党无关,那会是谁呢?我有答案,你有吗? 最后补充一句,这种套路在未来几个交易日,一定会被用在其它板块上!或者,已经用在了其它版块上,只是我没关注到而已!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3962e9311c823d33804aba032c7655c2","width":"640","height":"443"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d18a367066b21589f6c16ee6bbe053","width":"720","height":"774"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a48ae098e7defd9a0f461c82ca6f731","width":"650","height":"651"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380784052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399305696,"gmtCreate":1605923974815,"gmtModify":1703840498084,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UK\">$优客工场(UK)$</a>我发的帖子怎么没了?重发一遍。优客工场的估值太高,它的商业模式受政策和商业环境的影响太大,不看好。就目前日交易量,跟僵尸股无异,大概率未来6个月也就在5-8.5之间波动吧。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UK\">$优客工场(UK)$</a>我发的帖子怎么没了?重发一遍。优客工场的估值太高,它的商业模式受政策和商业环境的影响太大,不看好。就目前日交易量,跟僵尸股无异,大概率未来6个月也就在5-8.5之间波动吧。","text":"$优客工场(UK)$我发的帖子怎么没了?重发一遍。优客工场的估值太高,它的商业模式受政策和商业环境的影响太大,不看好。就目前日交易量,跟僵尸股无异,大概率未来6个月也就在5-8.5之间波动吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399305696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3495249218127227","authorId":"3495249218127227","name":"Fcj911","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3495249218127227","authorIdStr":"3495249218127227"},"content":"什么都不懂还发表评论,这几天只是股东的股权置换,明天才是正式敲钟,现在这个价格看看就好。","text":"什么都不懂还发表评论,这几天只是股东的股权置换,明天才是正式敲钟,现在这个价格看看就好。","html":"什么都不懂还发表评论,这几天只是股东的股权置换,明天才是正式敲钟,现在这个价格看看就好。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":942714202,"gmtCreate":1596211492606,"gmtModify":1704211832052,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEW\">$朴新教育(NEW)$</a>感谢一到75就买入的兄台[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEW\">$朴新教育(NEW)$</a>感谢一到75就买入的兄台[开心] ","text":"$朴新教育(NEW)$感谢一到75就买入的兄台[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942714202","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546046420106138","authorId":"3546046420106138","name":"屯票十年","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67f783022edecdb0c56104f9c9b3999f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3546046420106138","authorIdStr":"3546046420106138"},"content":"不懂就问,75指的是什么","text":"不懂就问,75指的是什么","html":"不懂就问,75指的是什么"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":981718040,"gmtCreate":1583818670780,"gmtModify":1704351101272,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"请问作者,您喝了多少假酒才能写出这篇文章呢?","listText":"请问作者,您喝了多少假酒才能写出这篇文章呢?","text":"请问作者,您喝了多少假酒才能写出这篇文章呢?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981718040","repostId":"2018511484","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2018511484","pubTimestamp":1583799073,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2018511484?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-10 08:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A股 VS 美股,可能的历史大背离","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2018511484","media":"投觉","summary":"风险(无常)本身具有遍历性,有些风险(无常)恰恰是我们必须承受的。","content":"<p>作者:梧桐 投觉</p><p><span>昨天,全球权益资产价格的黑色星期一。</span></p><p><span>美股开盘4分钟,标普500指数暴跌-7%,触发了第一层熔断机制,暂停交易15分钟,截至收盘,道指下跌-7.79%,</span><span><b>标普500指数下跌-7.60%,创2008年12月以来最大单日跌幅,</b></span><span>纳指下跌-7.29%。</span></p><p><span>不仅如此,</span><span><b>WTI 4月原油期货下跌-24.59%,报31.13美元/桶,创1991年以来最大单日跌幅,</b></span><span>而最具避险属性的黄金,由于高企的价格,削弱了其本身在这场金融混乱之中了避险价值。</span></p><p><b><span>尽管我们还很难将之定义为一场金融危机,但是,它的确已经从一场金融混乱走向金融危机的边缘,一是蝴蝶效应,二是宏观分形,三是在可见视野里,尚且看不到打破宏观现实、投资者预期与交易三者之间反身性的曙光。</span></b></p><p><span>历史不会简单重复,然而,其脚步却总是踏着相似的黑白琴键。</span></p><p><span>2008年美国次贷危机的主要来源就是,超级脆弱推手艾伦·格林斯潘(回顾历史,他无疑是最高级别的创伤源了)旨在消除“经济繁荣与衰退的周期”的各项举措,导致所有风险藏于地下且不断积聚,最终摧毁了经济,引发了“医源性损伤”。这些旨在消除经济周期的努力,是所有脆弱性的根源。</span></p><p><span>在此全球共振的Risk Off的背景脉络中,A股证券市场可能正在经历一个空头陷阱,昨天(20200309),万得全A下跌-3.57%,尽管如此,就单个交易日而言,我们仍然可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益,就2020年以来(截至20200306)而言,我们同样可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14521abd2a67d3e04f29c2cc85a4b8d\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02122ad96357d1ca45aafbac18eaecef\" /></p><p><span>因此,尽管A股证券市场也会在全球金融市场一片混乱的裹挟中大幅回落,但是,梧桐对于A股证券市场并不悲观。</span></p><p><b><span>在梧桐的视野里,美国去全球化中的脆弱,中国去全球化中的反脆弱;美国应对危机的组织能力中性,中国应对危机的组织能力星球第一;美国货币政策的空间逼仄,中国货币政策的游刃有余;美国是经济政治学,中国是政治经济学;美股相对高位,A股相对低位;美股不乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯,A股缺乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯。</span></b></p><p><b><span>若是对于这些有着清晰明见,那么,我们就可能在2020年遇见这个历史转身中的A股、美股的大背离。</span></b></p><p><span>这个大背离的意思是说,A股收益率向上趋势,美股收益率向下趋势。</span></p><p><span>A股证券市场还比较年轻,至今不过三十年,上一次A股、美股的大背离发生在2000年,那个时候,Cold war结束不到十年,中国尚未加入WTO,对于中国来说,世界还不是平的,全球化还在启程和展开之中。</span></p><p><span>二十年后,全球化已经开始走向去全球化,历史已经开始转身,中美已经开始对峙,世界已经不是平的,A股、美股是否走向历史的大背离,答案留给未来历史,只是,它的确具有宏观的现实可能性。</span></p><p><span>如今,当美国走到一个创新周期的拐点(创新周期的拐点往往意味着一个经济周期的拐点),这时,美国试图由敞开转向去全球化、强制中心化时,便有了一丝强弩之末的味道。</span></p><p><span>硬币的一面是,Trump挥起了大棒,演绎强人政治的一场大戏,硬币的另一面是,诸神的黄昏时刻或许正在渐次降临。</span></p><p><span>这亦是周期,每一个世纪都有一个全球中心的切换,意大利,荷兰,英国,美国,等等。这个世界,它是生物性的,它遵循了生态系统的演变规律,当一种生物强大到这个生态系统无法承受的时候,那么,它就走到了一个瓶颈时刻,它当然想要挣脱,然而,这个世界并没有什么胜天半子。</span></p><p><b><span>风会熄灭蜡烛,却能使火越烧越旺。</span></b></p><p><span>事实上,即便是2008年美国次贷危机那大萧条以来最为严重的金融危机,都没有将中国拖入长期衰退的境地,这个超级庞然大物具有相当的反脆弱性。问题的重点在于,中国经济结构调整的压力巨大,而周期内部结构的演进与变化,对于经济增长和A股证券市场投资而言,更为重要,因为这是寻找未来机会的方向和线索。</span></p><p><b><span>最终,只有更好地理解了这个世界,理解了整个宏观现实的背景脉络,才能更好地理解A股证券市场。</span></b></p><p><span>功夫在诗外,很多时候,你以为是你的投资胜利了,其实是你的世界观胜利了,若是真的想在此生中取得投资的胜利(偶尔的胜利,不值一提),那么,必须在世界观上下功夫。</span></p><p><span>当你被投资世界的热风裹挟之时,不妨安静下来,想一想,毕竟,我们已经经历了一个核心资产扩张的结构性牛市,以及一个科技股疯狂的结构性牛市。</span></p><p><span>当你被投资世界的恐慌裹挟之时,不妨安静下来,想一想,毕竟,无风险利率下行在那儿,资产荒在那儿,房住不炒在那儿,以及范式转换的未完成。</span></p><p><span>在投资世界,最重要的不是预期收益率,而是风险。这个风险在梧桐的语境里,就是无常,只是不同的名相。</span><span><b>风险(无常)本身具有遍历性,有些风险(无常)恰恰是我们必须承受的。</b></span><span>这其中,关键因素在于风险是否合理定价,风险到底有没有补偿,补偿是否充分,事实上,在梧桐的视野里,空头陷阱之中的A股证券市场,风险补偿正在变得越来越友好。重要的是,在知止与进击之间,在填充与留白之中,保持合宜的平衡。</span></p><p><span>码到这里的时候,梧桐不禁又一次想起杰克·凯鲁亚克在《在路上》一书中写到的,</span><span><b>世界旅行不像它看上去的那么美好,只是在你从所有炎热和狼狈中归来之后,你忘记了所受的折磨,回忆着遇见的不可思议的景色,它才是美好的。</b></span></p>","source":"lsy1572231153591","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA股 VS 美股,可能的历史大背离\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-10 08:11 北京时间 <a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/354382><strong>投觉</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:梧桐 投觉昨天,全球权益资产价格的黑色星期一。美股开盘4分钟,标普500指数暴跌-7%,触发了第一层熔断机制,暂停交易15分钟,截至收盘,道指下跌-7.79%,标普500指数下跌-7.60%,创2008年12月以来最大单日跌幅,纳指下跌-7.29%。不仅如此,WTI 4月原油期货下跌-24.59%,报31.13美元/桶,创1991年以来最大单日跌幅,而最具避险属性的黄金,由于高企的价格,削弱...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/354382\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3108c3b848b979a79a1bef92bbef7e60","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/354382","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2018511484","content_text":"作者:梧桐 投觉昨天,全球权益资产价格的黑色星期一。美股开盘4分钟,标普500指数暴跌-7%,触发了第一层熔断机制,暂停交易15分钟,截至收盘,道指下跌-7.79%,标普500指数下跌-7.60%,创2008年12月以来最大单日跌幅,纳指下跌-7.29%。不仅如此,WTI 4月原油期货下跌-24.59%,报31.13美元/桶,创1991年以来最大单日跌幅,而最具避险属性的黄金,由于高企的价格,削弱了其本身在这场金融混乱之中了避险价值。尽管我们还很难将之定义为一场金融危机,但是,它的确已经从一场金融混乱走向金融危机的边缘,一是蝴蝶效应,二是宏观分形,三是在可见视野里,尚且看不到打破宏观现实、投资者预期与交易三者之间反身性的曙光。历史不会简单重复,然而,其脚步却总是踏着相似的黑白琴键。2008年美国次贷危机的主要来源就是,超级脆弱推手艾伦·格林斯潘(回顾历史,他无疑是最高级别的创伤源了)旨在消除“经济繁荣与衰退的周期”的各项举措,导致所有风险藏于地下且不断积聚,最终摧毁了经济,引发了“医源性损伤”。这些旨在消除经济周期的努力,是所有脆弱性的根源。在此全球共振的Risk Off的背景脉络中,A股证券市场可能正在经历一个空头陷阱,昨天(20200309),万得全A下跌-3.57%,尽管如此,就单个交易日而言,我们仍然可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益,就2020年以来(截至20200306)而言,我们同样可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益。因此,尽管A股证券市场也会在全球金融市场一片混乱的裹挟中大幅回落,但是,梧桐对于A股证券市场并不悲观。在梧桐的视野里,美国去全球化中的脆弱,中国去全球化中的反脆弱;美国应对危机的组织能力中性,中国应对危机的组织能力星球第一;美国货币政策的空间逼仄,中国货币政策的游刃有余;美国是经济政治学,中国是政治经济学;美股相对高位,A股相对低位;美股不乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯,A股缺乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯。若是对于这些有着清晰明见,那么,我们就可能在2020年遇见这个历史转身中的A股、美股的大背离。这个大背离的意思是说,A股收益率向上趋势,美股收益率向下趋势。A股证券市场还比较年轻,至今不过三十年,上一次A股、美股的大背离发生在2000年,那个时候,Cold war结束不到十年,中国尚未加入WTO,对于中国来说,世界还不是平的,全球化还在启程和展开之中。二十年后,全球化已经开始走向去全球化,历史已经开始转身,中美已经开始对峙,世界已经不是平的,A股、美股是否走向历史的大背离,答案留给未来历史,只是,它的确具有宏观的现实可能性。如今,当美国走到一个创新周期的拐点(创新周期的拐点往往意味着一个经济周期的拐点),这时,美国试图由敞开转向去全球化、强制中心化时,便有了一丝强弩之末的味道。硬币的一面是,Trump挥起了大棒,演绎强人政治的一场大戏,硬币的另一面是,诸神的黄昏时刻或许正在渐次降临。这亦是周期,每一个世纪都有一个全球中心的切换,意大利,荷兰,英国,美国,等等。这个世界,它是生物性的,它遵循了生态系统的演变规律,当一种生物强大到这个生态系统无法承受的时候,那么,它就走到了一个瓶颈时刻,它当然想要挣脱,然而,这个世界并没有什么胜天半子。风会熄灭蜡烛,却能使火越烧越旺。事实上,即便是2008年美国次贷危机那大萧条以来最为严重的金融危机,都没有将中国拖入长期衰退的境地,这个超级庞然大物具有相当的反脆弱性。问题的重点在于,中国经济结构调整的压力巨大,而周期内部结构的演进与变化,对于经济增长和A股证券市场投资而言,更为重要,因为这是寻找未来机会的方向和线索。最终,只有更好地理解了这个世界,理解了整个宏观现实的背景脉络,才能更好地理解A股证券市场。功夫在诗外,很多时候,你以为是你的投资胜利了,其实是你的世界观胜利了,若是真的想在此生中取得投资的胜利(偶尔的胜利,不值一提),那么,必须在世界观上下功夫。当你被投资世界的热风裹挟之时,不妨安静下来,想一想,毕竟,我们已经经历了一个核心资产扩张的结构性牛市,以及一个科技股疯狂的结构性牛市。当你被投资世界的恐慌裹挟之时,不妨安静下来,想一想,毕竟,无风险利率下行在那儿,资产荒在那儿,房住不炒在那儿,以及范式转换的未完成。在投资世界,最重要的不是预期收益率,而是风险。这个风险在梧桐的语境里,就是无常,只是不同的名相。风险(无常)本身具有遍历性,有些风险(无常)恰恰是我们必须承受的。这其中,关键因素在于风险是否合理定价,风险到底有没有补偿,补偿是否充分,事实上,在梧桐的视野里,空头陷阱之中的A股证券市场,风险补偿正在变得越来越友好。重要的是,在知止与进击之间,在填充与留白之中,保持合宜的平衡。码到这里的时候,梧桐不禁又一次想起杰克·凯鲁亚克在《在路上》一书中写到的,世界旅行不像它看上去的那么美好,只是在你从所有炎热和狼狈中归来之后,你忘记了所受的折磨,回忆着遇见的不可思议的景色,它才是美好的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380784336,"gmtCreate":1612591862725,"gmtModify":1703763901290,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">$流利说(LAIX)$</a>今天发过一个短贴,实在看不下去还有人入坑,遂决定发一长贴。自WSB党起,美股就失序了。昨天一支代码为AACG的中概教育股在没有任何利好的情况下,突然暴涨,最高时涨了1400%多,再从19.75一路跌到今天的6块多。 接下来,“流利说”今天上演了同样的一幕!于是各种媒体大放厥词,什么“中概股掀起逼空风暴”,什么“中概股组团暴涨”!自从媒体学了个词叫“逼空”,于是把什么都叫“逼空”,好像不“装I3”一下,都显示不出自己有多SI3! 这两支股票都是从盘前开始暴涨,但开盘后先是空头无法成交,后来根本不让做空了!同样手法,不同的标的。太TM流氓了! 怀着疑惑我开始整理他们的套路,发现暴涨的不能被做空,能做空的都没暴涨。换言之,能被做空的不是他们所选标的,只是借着热度坐车受益而已。 然后发现,这些暴涨的标的都是教育板块里日交易量极低,同质化较弱的股票。几天前在评论区“疑似托儿”开始发帖评论标的被低估,大涨即将到来,极力唱多。 问题来了,做多是有成本代价的,如果只拉高股价,却不能做空,就没法狠狠割韭菜!不能狠狠割韭菜,那这场诱多又有什么意义呢?只是为了赚个零花钱? 散户融不到券,并不意味着散户之外的势力融不到,但这手法肯定与WSB党无关,那会是谁呢?我有答案,你有吗? 最后补充一句,这种套路在未来几个交易日,一定会被用在其它板块上!或者,已经用在了其它版块上,只是我没关注到而已!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LAIX\">$流利说(LAIX)$</a>今天发过一个短贴,实在看不下去还有人入坑,遂决定发一长贴。自WSB党起,美股就失序了。昨天一支代码为AACG的中概教育股在没有任何利好的情况下,突然暴涨,最高时涨了1400%多,再从19.75一路跌到今天的6块多。 接下来,“流利说”今天上演了同样的一幕!于是各种媒体大放厥词,什么“中概股掀起逼空风暴”,什么“中概股组团暴涨”!自从媒体学了个词叫“逼空”,于是把什么都叫“逼空”,好像不“装I3”一下,都显示不出自己有多SI3! 这两支股票都是从盘前开始暴涨,但开盘后先是空头无法成交,后来根本不让做空了!同样手法,不同的标的。太TM流氓了! 怀着疑惑我开始整理他们的套路,发现暴涨的不能被做空,能做空的都没暴涨。换言之,能被做空的不是他们所选标的,只是借着热度坐车受益而已。 然后发现,这些暴涨的标的都是教育板块里日交易量极低,同质化较弱的股票。几天前在评论区“疑似托儿”开始发帖评论标的被低估,大涨即将到来,极力唱多。 问题来了,做多是有成本代价的,如果只拉高股价,却不能做空,就没法狠狠割韭菜!不能狠狠割韭菜,那这场诱多又有什么意义呢?只是为了赚个零花钱? 散户融不到券,并不意味着散户之外的势力融不到,但这手法肯定与WSB党无关,那会是谁呢?我有答案,你有吗? 最后补充一句,这种套路在未来几个交易日,一定会被用在其它板块上!或者,已经用在了其它版块上,只是我没关注到而已!","text":"$流利说(LAIX)$今天发过一个短贴,实在看不下去还有人入坑,遂决定发一长贴。自WSB党起,美股就失序了。昨天一支代码为AACG的中概教育股在没有任何利好的情况下,突然暴涨,最高时涨了1400%多,再从19.75一路跌到今天的6块多。 接下来,“流利说”今天上演了同样的一幕!于是各种媒体大放厥词,什么“中概股掀起逼空风暴”,什么“中概股组团暴涨”!自从媒体学了个词叫“逼空”,于是把什么都叫“逼空”,好像不“装I3”一下,都显示不出自己有多SI3! 这两支股票都是从盘前开始暴涨,但开盘后先是空头无法成交,后来根本不让做空了!同样手法,不同的标的。太TM流氓了! 怀着疑惑我开始整理他们的套路,发现暴涨的不能被做空,能做空的都没暴涨。换言之,能被做空的不是他们所选标的,只是借着热度坐车受益而已。 然后发现,这些暴涨的标的都是教育板块里日交易量极低,同质化较弱的股票。几天前在评论区“疑似托儿”开始发帖评论标的被低估,大涨即将到来,极力唱多。 问题来了,做多是有成本代价的,如果只拉高股价,却不能做空,就没法狠狠割韭菜!不能狠狠割韭菜,那这场诱多又有什么意义呢?只是为了赚个零花钱? 散户融不到券,并不意味着散户之外的势力融不到,但这手法肯定与WSB党无关,那会是谁呢?我有答案,你有吗? 最后补充一句,这种套路在未来几个交易日,一定会被用在其它板块上!或者,已经用在了其它版块上,只是我没关注到而已!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3962e9311c823d33804aba032c7655c2","width":"640","height":"443"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6d18a367066b21589f6c16ee6bbe053","width":"720","height":"774"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a48ae098e7defd9a0f461c82ca6f731","width":"650","height":"651"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380784336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338382824,"gmtCreate":1609833414268,"gmtModify":1703740738944,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"title":"1月21日有啥好期待?","htmlText":" 美国大选前两周到今天,关于各种势力要借大选,或是要在明年新一届总统上台后做空美股的小道消息充斥于耳,对于这种消息我特别不屑,因为大盘指数不会单纯因为“消息”而被做空。当然,“重大消息”本身可以放大焦虑和恐慌,成为压死骆驼的最后一根稻草。但真正搞死骆驼的其实是市场参与者对未来的强同步悲观预期,稻草只是让大多数市场参与者被动且迅速地达成了共识。 我并不是说“消息”不能作为证券分析的方法,但它绝不是孤立存在的。证券分析主要有两种方法,一是基本面分析,二是技术分析,两者互补。但基本面分析有自己的不足。当公众了解到利空或利多信息,也就是所谓的“消息”时,一般都已经错过了黄金买点,黄金坑变成了真陷阱,这时做任何动作都是错的。 业余选手特别痴迷各种“内幕消息”和各种马后炮的新闻、评论。似乎只有这样才能把握市场趋势。勒庞在《乌合之众》中这样写道:“群体相信一切不可能的事情,相信一切不合逻辑的事情,相信一切不合情理,相信一切不存在的事情,但唯独——不相信现实生活的日常逻辑。”他们忽略了一个事实,能够说出来的秘密就不再是秘密,而“内幕”不会第一时间告诉大众。同样,当新闻见诸报端的时候,它的影响力早已经被市场主要运动趋势消化了。 100多年前,汉密尔顿就坚信人为操纵无法撼动股市主要运动。并多次用社论文章阐述观点。汉密尔顿所说的主要运动,并不是指个股的主要运动,而是指大盘指数的变化。 “少数几只股票能被操纵一时,并且可能会导致我们对局势的判断完全错误。但是,不可能操纵所有的股票,因此20只活跃股票的平均价格的变化足够重要,以至于我们能从中做出市场发展的","listText":" 美国大选前两周到今天,关于各种势力要借大选,或是要在明年新一届总统上台后做空美股的小道消息充斥于耳,对于这种消息我特别不屑,因为大盘指数不会单纯因为“消息”而被做空。当然,“重大消息”本身可以放大焦虑和恐慌,成为压死骆驼的最后一根稻草。但真正搞死骆驼的其实是市场参与者对未来的强同步悲观预期,稻草只是让大多数市场参与者被动且迅速地达成了共识。 我并不是说“消息”不能作为证券分析的方法,但它绝不是孤立存在的。证券分析主要有两种方法,一是基本面分析,二是技术分析,两者互补。但基本面分析有自己的不足。当公众了解到利空或利多信息,也就是所谓的“消息”时,一般都已经错过了黄金买点,黄金坑变成了真陷阱,这时做任何动作都是错的。 业余选手特别痴迷各种“内幕消息”和各种马后炮的新闻、评论。似乎只有这样才能把握市场趋势。勒庞在《乌合之众》中这样写道:“群体相信一切不可能的事情,相信一切不合逻辑的事情,相信一切不合情理,相信一切不存在的事情,但唯独——不相信现实生活的日常逻辑。”他们忽略了一个事实,能够说出来的秘密就不再是秘密,而“内幕”不会第一时间告诉大众。同样,当新闻见诸报端的时候,它的影响力早已经被市场主要运动趋势消化了。 100多年前,汉密尔顿就坚信人为操纵无法撼动股市主要运动。并多次用社论文章阐述观点。汉密尔顿所说的主要运动,并不是指个股的主要运动,而是指大盘指数的变化。 “少数几只股票能被操纵一时,并且可能会导致我们对局势的判断完全错误。但是,不可能操纵所有的股票,因此20只活跃股票的平均价格的变化足够重要,以至于我们能从中做出市场发展的","text":"美国大选前两周到今天,关于各种势力要借大选,或是要在明年新一届总统上台后做空美股的小道消息充斥于耳,对于这种消息我特别不屑,因为大盘指数不会单纯因为“消息”而被做空。当然,“重大消息”本身可以放大焦虑和恐慌,成为压死骆驼的最后一根稻草。但真正搞死骆驼的其实是市场参与者对未来的强同步悲观预期,稻草只是让大多数市场参与者被动且迅速地达成了共识。 我并不是说“消息”不能作为证券分析的方法,但它绝不是孤立存在的。证券分析主要有两种方法,一是基本面分析,二是技术分析,两者互补。但基本面分析有自己的不足。当公众了解到利空或利多信息,也就是所谓的“消息”时,一般都已经错过了黄金买点,黄金坑变成了真陷阱,这时做任何动作都是错的。 业余选手特别痴迷各种“内幕消息”和各种马后炮的新闻、评论。似乎只有这样才能把握市场趋势。勒庞在《乌合之众》中这样写道:“群体相信一切不可能的事情,相信一切不合逻辑的事情,相信一切不合情理,相信一切不存在的事情,但唯独——不相信现实生活的日常逻辑。”他们忽略了一个事实,能够说出来的秘密就不再是秘密,而“内幕”不会第一时间告诉大众。同样,当新闻见诸报端的时候,它的影响力早已经被市场主要运动趋势消化了。 100多年前,汉密尔顿就坚信人为操纵无法撼动股市主要运动。并多次用社论文章阐述观点。汉密尔顿所说的主要运动,并不是指个股的主要运动,而是指大盘指数的变化。 “少数几只股票能被操纵一时,并且可能会导致我们对局势的判断完全错误。但是,不可能操纵所有的股票,因此20只活跃股票的平均价格的变化足够重要,以至于我们能从中做出市场发展的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b03374f9867b1b4cae930784c4b4e573","width":"1144","height":"855"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed81db21f05dc7c839610ed96c6d6dd1","width":"1144","height":"855"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59b6b6dfd37fcaa95b3f81d9a513576e","width":"1144","height":"855"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338382824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946010175,"gmtCreate":1595515796497,"gmtModify":1704209303412,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEW\">$朴新教育(NEW)$</a>记得三月大跌的时候我发过一个贴,按照朴新当时的业绩估值应该在8-12元之间波动。因为停课,朴新的财报理论上不会比上一个季度漂亮。所以,到12合理,情绪性的再高一元可以接受,但过12后我肯定空。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEW\">$朴新教育(NEW)$</a>记得三月大跌的时候我发过一个贴,按照朴新当时的业绩估值应该在8-12元之间波动。因为停课,朴新的财报理论上不会比上一个季度漂亮。所以,到12合理,情绪性的再高一元可以接受,但过12后我肯定空。","text":"$朴新教育(NEW)$记得三月大跌的时候我发过一个贴,按照朴新当时的业绩估值应该在8-12元之间波动。因为停课,朴新的财报理论上不会比上一个季度漂亮。所以,到12合理,情绪性的再高一元可以接受,但过12后我肯定空。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946010175","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":376625959,"gmtCreate":1619113064671,"gmtModify":1619113064671,"author":{"id":"3507240061971742","authorId":"3507240061971742","name":"十四叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2ace3e8eff20dcebfe06342ea0db26a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3507240061971742","authorIdStr":"3507240061971742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>高台跳水前已经预警了,在1分钟和5分钟级别的图表中,虽然M5还在上行,但与M10反复纠缠,5分钟级别图标中MACD的红绿柱子缩量到了一点点高,这种大背离情形,只要有人放量做空就会瞬间下来。现在15分钟级别的M5和M10马上要死叉了,DIF和DEA已经死叉,双死叉见红柱后,基本收盘前都可以做空了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>高台跳水前已经预警了,在1分钟和5分钟级别的图表中,虽然M5还在上行,但与M10反复纠缠,5分钟级别图标中MACD的红绿柱子缩量到了一点点高,这种大背离情形,只要有人放量做空就会瞬间下来。现在15分钟级别的M5和M10马上要死叉了,DIF和DEA已经死叉,双死叉见红柱后,基本收盘前都可以做空了。","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$高台跳水前已经预警了,在1分钟和5分钟级别的图表中,虽然M5还在上行,但与M10反复纠缠,5分钟级别图标中MACD的红绿柱子缩量到了一点点高,这种大背离情形,只要有人放量做空就会瞬间下来。现在15分钟级别的M5和M10马上要死叉了,DIF和DEA已经死叉,双死叉见红柱后,基本收盘前都可以做空了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376625959","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572368062789280","authorId":"3572368062789280","name":"基本面调查员","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d9a0fd39450462531a0eddeb9630a56","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572368062789280","authorIdStr":"3572368062789280"},"content":"全部股票的走势这几分钟一模一样","text":"全部股票的走势这几分钟一模一样","html":"全部股票的走势这几分钟一模一样"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}