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june1990
2020-06-16
这作业真**…
全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相
june1990
2020-04-12
自己道德绑架,国家绑架,好意思说别人!
华为已经对小米忍无可忍了?继余承东表态后,申开朗用下三滥来形容
june1990
2020-04-07
$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$
最低点完美抄底
june1990
2020-03-08
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$Facebook(FB)$
$美国航空(AAL)$
下周一指数必涨,一周之际在于周一,周一保不住,对市场信心的打击是空前的,美股要崩盘,特朗普无论如何都会让股市在周一上涨,如果崩了,不用大选,等着收尸了……
june1990
2020-03-03
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
昨晚涨,周二先涨后转跌,其实都是特朗普安排好的,只有这样才能把股市下跌的锅甩给桑德斯,周三继续跌,后续美联储会紧急降息,特朗普又开始往自己身上套光环
june1990
2020-03-02
$Co-diagnostics Inc.(CODX)$
经过这一波回调,都怪华尔街过度消费了这只股,可以考虑逢低继续买入,目前全球55个以上的国家和地区收到疫情影响,试剂盒本身有其技术限制,产能有限,短期内需大于供,还有上升的空间
june1990
2020-03-01
$American Outdoor Brands Corporation(AOBC)$
买入就对了
june1990
2020-03-01
很有道理!
美股暴力反弹之后,总有暴跌在等着大家
june1990
2020-03-01
对台积电是利好
市场分析师郭明錤:苹果可能会在新电脑中首次放弃英特尔芯片
june1990
2020-03-01
$美国航空(AAL)$
别看市盈率低就盲目买入,巴菲特就吃过航空公司投资的亏,航空公司的利润具有短期性,而且收各种因素影响非常大,鉴于新冠病毒对其的影响,持续1-2年亏损都是有概率发生的
june1990
2020-02-29
$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$
目前有26种疫苗在准备测试,至于安全性有效性斩切不论,RNA疫苗的价格绝对不便宜!如果出现有效的便宜的疫苗对该公司会是非常大的利空,大家要谨慎购买……
june1990
2020-02-29
此次反弹并没有产生涨幅,市场层面应该还在等消息。新冠如果继续肆虐,有继续下跌的风险,而特朗普和美联储会尽力避免其跌幅超过20%以上;如果新冠得到控制,后续反弹可期。从目前韩国和日本的情况看,其实并不乐观,美国控制的好,其它国家出现乱子一样会影响美国的经济,后续应该最低会跌到7800点左右
june1990
2020-02-28
$Alpha Pro Tech Ltd(APT)$
特朗普已经命令能整改生产口罩的企业进行整改了,后续不会这么疯狂了
june1990
2020-02-27
$Alpha Pro Tech Ltd(APT)$
有人问为什么这个股还有追涨的?几点原因,一市值低,二订单多,三口罩和防护服可以全球销售,四如果财政拨款25亿美元该股翻翻轻而易举
june1990
2020-02-27
撒谎不眨眼
外资还想来中国买买买吗?
june1990
2020-02-26
$吉利德科学(GILD)$
想想为啥美帝急着测试,假设后续新冠美国传开了,又证明药有效!你到时候后悔都来不及
june1990
2018-12-27
#2018年度大放送# 佣金太贵
june1990
2018-11-30
#2018投资大复盘# 佣金付不起了…免一哈吧
june1990
2018-11-02
$苹果(AAPL)$ 觉得苹果期权太贵,去买了$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ 看跌期权,我苹给力点啊,带我飞
june1990
2018-10-30
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 精准抄底
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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这作业真**…","text":"这作业真**…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955365730","repostId":"2043363773","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2043363773","pubTimestamp":1592308824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2043363773?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-16 20:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2043363773","media":"雪球","summary":"原标题:全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相 来源:雪球6月15日夜,或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈(陈向东)最兴奋的时候","content":"<html><body><p>原标题:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>做空股“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相 来源:雪球</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/94/w600h294/20200616/285a-iuzasxs9569522.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>6月15日夜,或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈(陈向东)最兴奋的时候。这一晚,“跟谁学”股价一路暴涨,最高至55.88元,最终收盘52.00元,涨幅20.82%,创下该股上市以来的新高!市值也达到了124亿美元(约合840亿人民币)。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/470/w710h560/20200616/1caf-iuzasxs9569520.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>当晚,伴随着“跟谁学”一路大涨,则是做空“跟谁学”的投资人不断平仓、关灯、吃面。在雪球上,一部分投资人一边哀嚎着割肉,一边宣誓改日再战;一部分投资人则继续加大做空仓位,甚至做好了“跟谁学”股价涨至80美元-100美元的准备。</p><p>股价一路绿上天</p><p>不得不承认的是,“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)15日晚的暴涨不仅碾压了做空者,即使是相信跟谁学、持有其股票的投资人也颇感意外。</p><p>15日中概股是普涨行情,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>涨2.62%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨0.47%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">有道</a>涨14.38%,蔚来汽车涨11.97%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨6.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨3.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨6.24%,但涨幅最高的还是“跟谁学”。</p><p>同为中概教育股,“跟谁学”的前辈<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>(NYSE:EDU)股价是下跌的,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>(NYSE:TAL)也仅上涨了1.77%。让无数做空者心中窝火的是,为何跟谁学能一枝独绿绿上天?</p><p>稍微了解“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)被做空历史的投资人,都会对这种暴涨行情目瞪口呆。</p><p>在过去3个月里,“跟谁学”被4家境外做空机构持续做空9次,浑水(MuddyWaters Research)、香橼(Citron Research)、天蝎(Scorpio VC)、灰熊(Grizzly Research),这些国际上最知名的做空机构先后加入了做空“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)的队伍。</p><p>据统计,仅在5月份,做空“跟谁学”的资金就增加了1.43亿美元,做空总规模高达8.15亿美元,占“跟谁学”流通股的21%。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/740/w496h244/20200616/ca48-iuzasxs9569591.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>因此,15日晚的暴涨,也被一部分市场人士视为“跟谁学”反击市场做空力量的狙击战。</p><p>也有一种说法,6月16日是“跟谁学”6周年庆典,陈向东需要公司股价大涨来支撑士气。有细心人分析称,“跟谁学”15日股价最高到55.88,收盘价52.00,都是很喜庆的数字,就凭这个,Larry陈都应该给操盘团队发一个奖。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/308/w655h453/20200616/db40-iuzasxs9569601.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>无论何种原因,至少从目前看,这次大涨迫使部分做空者割肉平仓。难怪Larry陈在6月初接受某媒体采访时,自信满满地说,“我不关心股价”。</p><p>不仅如此,Larry陈还警告做空者说,“做空有两种结果。一种公司别说9次做空,中间就扛不住了;另外一种是来这么多次我都能扛,然后而且我会越来越牛,让他(做空者)亏钱。”</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/168/w808h160/20200616/a0bc-iuzasxs9569746.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>15日晚,Larry的确让很多做空者亏钱了。但从市场投资人的士气看,单靠这次上涨要完全化解做空者的动能,恐怕没有那么容易。</p><p>毕竟,投资人对“跟谁学”业绩造假的共识已经冰冻三尺,“跟谁学”一旦不能维持高高在上的股价,便是雪山崩塌之时,瑞幸便是最好的前车之鉴。</p><p>获客成本是1000还是10000?</p><p>引发做空机构最大质疑的是,“跟谁学”的业绩“好到不真实”,转型一年就实现盈利,成立仅5年就上市,上市不到一年市值就超过百亿,而且是美元!具体说,“跟谁学”连续八个季度利润实现同比增长,增速超4倍,而陈学东前东家新东方旗下的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>这样的巨头都没实现盈利,“跟谁学”的业绩奇迹是如何实现的?</p><p>做空机构浑水Muddy Waters Research)创始人卡森·布洛克(Carson Block)在邮件回复《经济观察报》采访时,对跟谁学(GSX.US)的点评就是“Liars lie(骗子的谎言)。”</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/95/w600h295/20200616/88ef-iuzasxs9569749.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>IPO君注意到,跟谁学在反驳做空机构质疑时,曾表示,外界根本不懂跟谁学的商业模式,跟谁学强调其独特的名师经纪人模式和超低的获客成本。跟谁学 CFO 沈楠透露2019年跟谁学全年加权平均获客成本为 470 元,2019年一季度,跟谁学的获客成本增至978元。但是,在线教育行业平均获客成本都高达几千元。例如,VIPKID创始人米雯娟曾透露其单个获客成本平均为4000元,而纯线上培训机构<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">尚德机构</a>获客成本也高达4970元。</p><p>后浪“跟谁学”为何获客成本仅为行业前浪们的1/10或者1/4?是后浪太厉害了,还是前浪不行了?</p><p>为了弄清楚跟谁学的真实获客成本,IPO君前几天加入了一个“跟谁学”英语训练营,需要讲一下的是,“跟谁学”在微信某知名微信公众号投放了一篇导流软文,该公众号根据其流量测算,其单篇投放价格应在15W元以上。那么,“跟谁学”本次投放效果如何呢?</p><p>截至6月16日,该文章阅读量接近5W,但有限的几条评论貌似都是跟谁学的水军。</p><p>IPO君加入该软文导流的两个群,一个少儿群,一个成人群,截至16日开课,两个群的人数大约300。需要说明的是,这个在线英语培训课程为其4天,每天一次,完全免费。</p><p>虽然跟谁学号称这个英语班有1400多人报名,但IPO君在在线课堂上看到的只是很多疑似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>的机械式的同样句式的回复。</p><p>老师据称是跟谁学的名师,可是给IPO君的感觉,这位老师不是在教英文课,而是在上中文课。</p><p>尼玛,好歹都进化到21世纪20年代了,跟谁学的老师居然还在用中文的句式分析英文语法,跟谁学名师一举将中国青少年英语教育水准拉回到20年前。难怪了,这种模式就像Larry陈说的,一般人根本看不懂。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/546/w862h484/20200616/4f10-iuzasxs9569848.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>IPO君在跟谁学的在线课堂上呆了5分钟,就落荒而逃了。你们感受下“跟我学”的英文材料。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/465/w520h745/20200616/7917-iuzasxs9569836.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>课后,跟谁学的帮助老师(助教)在微信群里布置了作业,还告诉学员,在第二天18点前不交作业的,会被“抱出群”。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/289/w536h553/20200616/837b-iuzasxs9569906.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>无路吐槽了。IPO君给你算算跟谁学的获客成本吧。这个课虽然是免费的,但跟谁学显然希望利用这个免费课获得新的付费学生。据IPO君统计,第二天上课前,两个群里300名学生,按照要求在群里提交作业的约为10%,4天免费课结束后,假设有50%的交作业的学生转化为付费学生,那么按10W-15W的营销成本计算,跟谁学的获客成本高达6666元-10000元!</p><p>问题是,交作业的学生中付费转化率高达50%,对在线教育来说,恐怕是个难以实现的数字。</p><p>Larry陈宣称的跟谁学低至数百元的获客成本到底是如何实现的,恐怕是一个谜;他所说的120万名(还是人次??)付费学生到底在哪里?是存在电脑里吗,还是画在纸上的“豆兵”?</p><p>全世界做空者都在等待“跟谁学”以及Larry陈给出一个真诚的答案。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-16 20:00 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-16/doc-iirczymk7359495.shtml><strong>雪球</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相 来源:雪球6月15日夜,或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈(陈向东)最兴奋的时候。这一晚,“跟谁学”股价一路暴涨,最高至55.88元,最终收盘52.00元,涨幅20.82%,创下该股上市以来的新高!市值也达到了124亿美元(约合840亿人民币)。当晚,伴随着“跟谁学”一路大涨,则...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-16/doc-iirczymk7359495.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2946b9cd4befcf808691bc00a8ecb1be","relate_stocks":{"TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-16/doc-iirczymk7359495.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2043363773","content_text":"原标题:全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相 来源:雪球6月15日夜,或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈(陈向东)最兴奋的时候。这一晚,“跟谁学”股价一路暴涨,最高至55.88元,最终收盘52.00元,涨幅20.82%,创下该股上市以来的新高!市值也达到了124亿美元(约合840亿人民币)。当晚,伴随着“跟谁学”一路大涨,则是做空“跟谁学”的投资人不断平仓、关灯、吃面。在雪球上,一部分投资人一边哀嚎着割肉,一边宣誓改日再战;一部分投资人则继续加大做空仓位,甚至做好了“跟谁学”股价涨至80美元-100美元的准备。股价一路绿上天不得不承认的是,“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)15日晚的暴涨不仅碾压了做空者,即使是相信跟谁学、持有其股票的投资人也颇感意外。15日中概股是普涨行情,京东涨2.62%,百度涨0.47%,有道涨14.38%,蔚来汽车涨11.97%,哔哩哔哩涨6.52%,腾讯音乐涨3.66%,拼多多涨6.24%,但涨幅最高的还是“跟谁学”。同为中概教育股,“跟谁学”的前辈新东方(NYSE:EDU)股价是下跌的,好未来(NYSE:TAL)也仅上涨了1.77%。让无数做空者心中窝火的是,为何跟谁学能一枝独绿绿上天?稍微了解“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)被做空历史的投资人,都会对这种暴涨行情目瞪口呆。在过去3个月里,“跟谁学”被4家境外做空机构持续做空9次,浑水(MuddyWaters Research)、香橼(Citron Research)、天蝎(Scorpio VC)、灰熊(Grizzly Research),这些国际上最知名的做空机构先后加入了做空“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)的队伍。据统计,仅在5月份,做空“跟谁学”的资金就增加了1.43亿美元,做空总规模高达8.15亿美元,占“跟谁学”流通股的21%。因此,15日晚的暴涨,也被一部分市场人士视为“跟谁学”反击市场做空力量的狙击战。也有一种说法,6月16日是“跟谁学”6周年庆典,陈向东需要公司股价大涨来支撑士气。有细心人分析称,“跟谁学”15日股价最高到55.88,收盘价52.00,都是很喜庆的数字,就凭这个,Larry陈都应该给操盘团队发一个奖。无论何种原因,至少从目前看,这次大涨迫使部分做空者割肉平仓。难怪Larry陈在6月初接受某媒体采访时,自信满满地说,“我不关心股价”。不仅如此,Larry陈还警告做空者说,“做空有两种结果。一种公司别说9次做空,中间就扛不住了;另外一种是来这么多次我都能扛,然后而且我会越来越牛,让他(做空者)亏钱。”15日晚,Larry的确让很多做空者亏钱了。但从市场投资人的士气看,单靠这次上涨要完全化解做空者的动能,恐怕没有那么容易。毕竟,投资人对“跟谁学”业绩造假的共识已经冰冻三尺,“跟谁学”一旦不能维持高高在上的股价,便是雪山崩塌之时,瑞幸便是最好的前车之鉴。获客成本是1000还是10000?引发做空机构最大质疑的是,“跟谁学”的业绩“好到不真实”,转型一年就实现盈利,成立仅5年就上市,上市不到一年市值就超过百亿,而且是美元!具体说,“跟谁学”连续八个季度利润实现同比增长,增速超4倍,而陈学东前东家新东方旗下的新东方在线这样的巨头都没实现盈利,“跟谁学”的业绩奇迹是如何实现的?做空机构浑水Muddy Waters Research)创始人卡森·布洛克(Carson Block)在邮件回复《经济观察报》采访时,对跟谁学(GSX.US)的点评就是“Liars lie(骗子的谎言)。”IPO君注意到,跟谁学在反驳做空机构质疑时,曾表示,外界根本不懂跟谁学的商业模式,跟谁学强调其独特的名师经纪人模式和超低的获客成本。跟谁学 CFO 沈楠透露2019年跟谁学全年加权平均获客成本为 470 元,2019年一季度,跟谁学的获客成本增至978元。但是,在线教育行业平均获客成本都高达几千元。例如,VIPKID创始人米雯娟曾透露其单个获客成本平均为4000元,而纯线上培训机构尚德机构获客成本也高达4970元。后浪“跟谁学”为何获客成本仅为行业前浪们的1/10或者1/4?是后浪太厉害了,还是前浪不行了?为了弄清楚跟谁学的真实获客成本,IPO君前几天加入了一个“跟谁学”英语训练营,需要讲一下的是,“跟谁学”在微信某知名微信公众号投放了一篇导流软文,该公众号根据其流量测算,其单篇投放价格应在15W元以上。那么,“跟谁学”本次投放效果如何呢?截至6月16日,该文章阅读量接近5W,但有限的几条评论貌似都是跟谁学的水军。IPO君加入该软文导流的两个群,一个少儿群,一个成人群,截至16日开课,两个群的人数大约300。需要说明的是,这个在线英语培训课程为其4天,每天一次,完全免费。虽然跟谁学号称这个英语班有1400多人报名,但IPO君在在线课堂上看到的只是很多疑似机器人的机械式的同样句式的回复。老师据称是跟谁学的名师,可是给IPO君的感觉,这位老师不是在教英文课,而是在上中文课。尼玛,好歹都进化到21世纪20年代了,跟谁学的老师居然还在用中文的句式分析英文语法,跟谁学名师一举将中国青少年英语教育水准拉回到20年前。难怪了,这种模式就像Larry陈说的,一般人根本看不懂。IPO君在跟谁学的在线课堂上呆了5分钟,就落荒而逃了。你们感受下“跟我学”的英文材料。课后,跟谁学的帮助老师(助教)在微信群里布置了作业,还告诉学员,在第二天18点前不交作业的,会被“抱出群”。无路吐槽了。IPO君给你算算跟谁学的获客成本吧。这个课虽然是免费的,但跟谁学显然希望利用这个免费课获得新的付费学生。据IPO君统计,第二天上课前,两个群里300名学生,按照要求在群里提交作业的约为10%,4天免费课结束后,假设有50%的交作业的学生转化为付费学生,那么按10W-15W的营销成本计算,跟谁学的获客成本高达6666元-10000元!问题是,交作业的学生中付费转化率高达50%,对在线教育来说,恐怕是个难以实现的数字。Larry陈宣称的跟谁学低至数百元的获客成本到底是如何实现的,恐怕是一个谜;他所说的120万名(还是人次??)付费学生到底在哪里?是存在电脑里吗,还是画在纸上的“豆兵”?全世界做空者都在等待“跟谁学”以及Larry陈给出一个真诚的答案。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928883248,"gmtCreate":1586651200784,"gmtModify":1704361779821,"author":{"id":"3499548317884485","authorId":"3499548317884485","authorIdStr":"3499548317884485","name":"june1990","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c586b34cbe7395cce0af5eac67681695","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"自己道德绑架,国家绑架,好意思说别人!","listText":"自己道德绑架,国家绑架,好意思说别人!","text":"自己道德绑架,国家绑架,好意思说别人!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928883248","repostId":"2026619362","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2026619362","pubTimestamp":1586644200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2026619362?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-12 06:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"华为已经对小米忍无可忍了?继余承东表态后,申开朗用下三滥来形容","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2026619362","media":"求根问底","summary":"说到国产手机,就不得不提到华为和小米,而这两家就像是死对头一样总是在各种争吵。小米副总卢伟冰也给华为系手机起了很多有趣的外号,例如什么嗡嗡嗡,哒哒哒,海军军舰的声音等等,而最近小米副总卢伟冰又给华为系","content":"<html><body><article><p>说到国产手机,就不得不提到华为和小米,而这两家就像是死对头一样总是在各种争吵。小米副总卢伟冰也给华为系手机起了很多有趣的外号,例如什么嗡嗡嗡,哒哒哒,海军军舰的声音等等,而最近小米副总卢伟冰又给华为系的荣耀起了一个外号叫做“强行捆绑”。</p><p>小米副总卢伟冰是这么说:建议友商把钱多花在产品上,造福用户,而不是花在“强行捆绑”的广告上!。这件事情的起因就是在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>上如果带上了荣耀30s,那么系统会加上一个荣耀30s的广告。而对此小米副总卢伟冰就嘲笑荣耀不如把钱花在产品上而不是做广告。小米副总卢伟冰可以说这是嘲笑荣耀。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200412073234192v2465qi0s4rx30o\"/><p>而华为方面的申开朗就对小米副总卢伟冰的这个言论隔空回复到:为什么某品牌某个人现在普遍被大家认为比较low,比较下三滥。就是这种恶意带节奏的行径此前出现了无数次。自认为别人很在意它,很关注它,很想害它的心态。</p><p>并且还说了两个情况,申开朗表示这两个情况可能会让某位L总想哭: 这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>投放的,说明荣耀这个产品非常有热度,电商才愿意投资。当然,某企业可能很少有这种经历,所以不懂。而且申开朗表示被广告覆盖,说明平时非常关注荣耀,系统判定是应该给你推送。机器比你更了解你自己,不会撒谎。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200412073234863v246hwou7qyw1z9\"/><p>申开朗又发了一条微博表示卢总私下里这么关心荣耀所以广告才自动推送给他,申开朗表能不能不要这么关心我们。言外之意就是做好自己的事情不要老是碰瓷华为。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200412073236004v2462hf8wrid8nk\"/><p>从这里我们可以了解到这个广告是京东做的,而且只会推荐给平时比较关注荣耀手机的人。而且这种广告也是非常多的,不仅只有荣耀有,根据网友的消息,小米10也有这种广告。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200412073237642v246dp48gq72kny\"/><p>不过一个数码大V有这种广告很正常,但是卢伟冰作为小米的副总能接到这种广告,这是平常多有关注荣耀手机啊。而且我们从申开朗的话中可以看到L总这一次打脸荣耀好像失败了,因为这也是在打自己的脸啊,因为大家都知道现在京东小米10的好评率是在92%。而荣耀30s的好评率是在96%。这L总真是狠起来连自己人都打啊。</p><p>但是我主要到这次申开朗直接用:为什么某品牌某个人现在普遍被大家认为比较low,比较下三滥。就是这种恶意带节奏的行径此前出现了无数次。自认为别人很在意它,很关注它,很想害它的心态。这样的话语来形容小米,虽然此前双方有过数次的交锋,但是申开朗说这样的话也是没有出现过的,而再看在4月9号华为消费者业务ceo余承东在接受媒体采访时说的:有国内同行狂黑我们,没有底线,这样的公司是无法去打造高端的也无法成为伟大的公司。余承东甚至直接说这样的公司迟早要被 时代抛弃。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200412073237949v2467bcu70ft6nb\"/><p>我们可以感受到整个华为的高层已经对某家公司这种频繁的各种碰瓷和造谣已经失去了耐心了。大家都知道以前华为的高层对小米的各种碰瓷总是采取一种看不见的态度,而这次随着余承东公开表态,这样的公司迟早要被时代抛弃,到申开朗这次用下三滥和恶意带节奏来形容小米公司。可以看出华为从以前的看不见的态度转变到了争锋相对的态度,也许是小米这种方式已经让华为高层感到十分不爽了。</p><p>虽然大家都说荣耀是从模仿小米开始的,但是荣耀也没有这么无敌线的去碰瓷去恶意带节奏。而且从华为系最近的动作来看,先是直接将荣耀30s的定价低于红米k30 5G,后来又将荣耀v30的价格降了300块,后来又将p40pro的起步价格直接定在了和小米10Pro顶配价格一样的价位上,甚至在荣耀paly4TPro的价格直接对准了红米k305G的价格基础上下降了200。可以看到华为这一系列的动作应该是很明确就是在各个价位上全面压制小米。尤其是荣耀paly4TPro除了没有120Hz刷新率屏幕,其他都是直接碾压红米k30 4G的。而按照以往的情况,荣耀会将play4TPro的价格定得稍微比对手竞品高一点,而这次荣耀却定得比红米k30 4G直接底了200,所以在荣耀play4Tpro价格出来以后,很多人都表示这价格太香了。</p><p>那么现在就是一个问题了小米系会在华为的这一系列打击之下还能保持国内市场10%的市场占有率吗?</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华为已经对小米忍无可忍了?继余承东表态后,申开朗用下三滥来形容\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-12 06:30 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20200412073241792d3bd1&s=b><strong>求根问底</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>说到国产手机,就不得不提到华为和小米,而这两家就像是死对头一样总是在各种争吵。小米副总卢伟冰也给华为系手机起了很多有趣的外号,例如什么嗡嗡嗡,哒哒哒,海军军舰的声音等等,而最近小米副总卢伟冰又给华为系的荣耀起了一个外号叫做“强行捆绑”。小米副总卢伟冰是这么说:建议友商把钱多花在产品上,造福用户,而不是花在“强行捆绑”的广告上!。这件事情的起因就是在微博上如果带上了荣耀30s,那么系统会加上一个荣耀...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20200412073241792d3bd1&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7265a90bb3065920567e79d1fb73485","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20200412073241792d3bd1&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2026619362","content_text":"说到国产手机,就不得不提到华为和小米,而这两家就像是死对头一样总是在各种争吵。小米副总卢伟冰也给华为系手机起了很多有趣的外号,例如什么嗡嗡嗡,哒哒哒,海军军舰的声音等等,而最近小米副总卢伟冰又给华为系的荣耀起了一个外号叫做“强行捆绑”。小米副总卢伟冰是这么说:建议友商把钱多花在产品上,造福用户,而不是花在“强行捆绑”的广告上!。这件事情的起因就是在微博上如果带上了荣耀30s,那么系统会加上一个荣耀30s的广告。而对此小米副总卢伟冰就嘲笑荣耀不如把钱花在产品上而不是做广告。小米副总卢伟冰可以说这是嘲笑荣耀。而华为方面的申开朗就对小米副总卢伟冰的这个言论隔空回复到:为什么某品牌某个人现在普遍被大家认为比较low,比较下三滥。就是这种恶意带节奏的行径此前出现了无数次。自认为别人很在意它,很关注它,很想害它的心态。并且还说了两个情况,申开朗表示这两个情况可能会让某位L总想哭: 这是京东投放的,说明荣耀这个产品非常有热度,电商才愿意投资。当然,某企业可能很少有这种经历,所以不懂。而且申开朗表示被广告覆盖,说明平时非常关注荣耀,系统判定是应该给你推送。机器比你更了解你自己,不会撒谎。申开朗又发了一条微博表示卢总私下里这么关心荣耀所以广告才自动推送给他,申开朗表能不能不要这么关心我们。言外之意就是做好自己的事情不要老是碰瓷华为。从这里我们可以了解到这个广告是京东做的,而且只会推荐给平时比较关注荣耀手机的人。而且这种广告也是非常多的,不仅只有荣耀有,根据网友的消息,小米10也有这种广告。不过一个数码大V有这种广告很正常,但是卢伟冰作为小米的副总能接到这种广告,这是平常多有关注荣耀手机啊。而且我们从申开朗的话中可以看到L总这一次打脸荣耀好像失败了,因为这也是在打自己的脸啊,因为大家都知道现在京东小米10的好评率是在92%。而荣耀30s的好评率是在96%。这L总真是狠起来连自己人都打啊。但是我主要到这次申开朗直接用:为什么某品牌某个人现在普遍被大家认为比较low,比较下三滥。就是这种恶意带节奏的行径此前出现了无数次。自认为别人很在意它,很关注它,很想害它的心态。这样的话语来形容小米,虽然此前双方有过数次的交锋,但是申开朗说这样的话也是没有出现过的,而再看在4月9号华为消费者业务ceo余承东在接受媒体采访时说的:有国内同行狂黑我们,没有底线,这样的公司是无法去打造高端的也无法成为伟大的公司。余承东甚至直接说这样的公司迟早要被 时代抛弃。我们可以感受到整个华为的高层已经对某家公司这种频繁的各种碰瓷和造谣已经失去了耐心了。大家都知道以前华为的高层对小米的各种碰瓷总是采取一种看不见的态度,而这次随着余承东公开表态,这样的公司迟早要被时代抛弃,到申开朗这次用下三滥和恶意带节奏来形容小米公司。可以看出华为从以前的看不见的态度转变到了争锋相对的态度,也许是小米这种方式已经让华为高层感到十分不爽了。虽然大家都说荣耀是从模仿小米开始的,但是荣耀也没有这么无敌线的去碰瓷去恶意带节奏。而且从华为系最近的动作来看,先是直接将荣耀30s的定价低于红米k30 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Corporation(AOBC)$买入就对了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983900852","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3449201502307131","authorId":"3449201502307131","authorIdStr":"3449201502307131","name":"稳稳的yeah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8685df98e34400937b82017818a6dbf2","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"没动静啊这个","text":"没动静啊这个","html":"没动静啊这个"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983073561,"gmtCreate":1583036129453,"gmtModify":1704348580529,"author":{"id":"3499548317884485","authorId":"3499548317884485","authorIdStr":"3499548317884485","name":"june1990","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c586b34cbe7395cce0af5eac67681695","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很有道理!","listText":"很有道理!","text":"很有道理!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983073561","repostId":"2016335909","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2016335909","pubTimestamp":1583021460,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2016335909?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-01 08:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股暴力反弹之后,总有暴跌在等着大家","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2016335909","media":"智通财经网","summary":"本文来自 微信公众号“美股研究社”,作者:李俊。暴力反弹如约而至,在大盘连续暴跌5天,创下自金融危机以来最大单周跌幅之后,期待中的美联储救市和暴力反弹终于出现了。美股三大指数开盘后先是大幅下挫,道指盘","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify strong-Bold subpect-abstract\">本文来自 微信公众号“美股研究社”,作者:李俊。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">暴力反弹如约而至,在大盘连续暴跌5天,创下自金融危机以来最大单周跌幅之后,期待中的美联储救市和暴力反弹终于出现了。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">美股三大指数开盘后先是大幅下挫,道指盘中跌逾千点。随后鲍威尔发布声明称,“美联储正在密切关注事态发展及其对经济前景的影响,我们将采取适当的行动来支持经济。”声明发布后,美股集体拉升,衡量美股波动率的恐慌指数VIX涨幅迅速收窄。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">这样的走势其实并不惊讶,早在周三的时候我就一直强调,大盘肯定要出现一波暴力反弹,只是没想到会来得这么晚。在一开始,我以为道琼斯指数回踩200日均线会是反弹信号,然后以为标普500指数回踩200日均线会是反弹信号,最后又以为纳斯达克指数回踩200日均线会是反弹信号。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">非常不幸,这三个预测全部错了,这些重要的支撑位无一例外全部跌破。估计所有人都没想到,三大股指会单周暴跌10%以上,均收了一根非常长的放量阴线,周K拦腰斩断了5周、10周、30周和50周均线,这种断头铡出现之后,距离大盘真正的底部可能还有不小的空间。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">周五触底反弹的原因,我这里简单分析下原因,其实主要有三点,第一点是纳指100(QQQ)回踩200日均线,这个你没看错,确实是纳指100,而不是纳斯达克指数,这里我也是后面复盘才发现的。纳指100成分股可以说是全球最优秀的100家科技公司了,纳斯达克则包含了几千家公司,这也说明大公司的下跌幅度是远比小公司要小的。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">第二点自然是鲍威尔的强势护盘,机构已经开始下注美联储会在3月降息。要知道,在一周之前,机构认为3月降息的概率只有5%,如今这个概率已上升到96%以上。当下公共卫生事件对全球经济的冲击,非常符合鲍威尔早前说的,如果发生重大影响经济走势的事件。虽然美联储仍然闭口不谈降息,但3月降息已成必然。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">第三点是黄金等大宗商品引发的抛售潮。昨天就有分析,不少基金因为爆仓,抛售了持有的黄金,把这些换成现金去股市抄底了。这也是为什么我们看到,昨天黄金瞬间跳水3个点以上,而大盘在同一时间迅速拉升的重要原因,新的流动性加入,自然对大盘有重要贡献。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">说到底,这一次的反弹只是超跌的技术性反弹,在连续暴跌并且跌破几乎所有支撑线之后,机构也亏的血本无归,他们自救的唯一办法就是拉高股市,然后让散户接盘,所以连续暴跌之后,总会有几次暴力反弹出现,这也是我为什么一直强调,现在每天的大盘走势根本无法预测。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">就拿周五来说吧,早上的时候期货是涨0.7%,到下午的时候期货跌了2%,再到晚上开盘之前,期货又一度翻涨,然后又迅速跳水到1.2%。等美股开盘之后,大盘迅速低开低走,一度跌幅高达3.6%,然后11点半的时候又迅速拉升到只跌2.5%,然后又在短短几分钟内跳水1%,最后就是我们看到的直线拉升。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">如此大的波动之下,大盘走势已经完全没有规律,而这背后则是投资者的无比恐慌,现在这种环境下,做多做空的风险都非常高。所以我仍然坚持一直强调的策略:做空那些财报暴雷的。这个在群里面说了无数次,这里再次强调下,逻辑很简单,大盘即使暴力反弹,财报暴雷的公司也大概率会顺势跌,大盘要是跳水,那就更不用说了。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">接下来想说下美联储的降息护盘,从历史经验来看,美联储的降息并不一定对大盘有正向作用。因为这要分成两种情况分析,一种是2018年底的经济扩张时期,美国经济在那个阶段不仅没有衰退,反而呈现出高速增长态势,大盘当时暴跌只是因为贸易战的不确定性和美联储加息。这个时候,美联储降息对大盘自然有非常积极的作用。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">现在情况并不是这样,这也是另一种降息背景。那就是公共卫生事件影响之下,经济可能即将步入衰退期,可能很多人并不认同经济要衰退,但没有2019年好,我想应该没人会否认这种情况,更重要的是能源、芯片、航空、旅游、广告等各个领域出现滑坡也已经是确定性的事件,支撑美股上涨的利润出现下滑已成必然。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">这个阶段,美股暴跌的逻辑并不是因为美联储,即使降息会短期内提振股票,但长期的经济走势并没有改变,一旦市场发现,美联储降息无法改善经济下滑趋势的时候,更惨烈的回调可能在后面等着我们了。现在的影响到底有多大,仍然是一个不确定性因素,但结合当前的消息来看,情况可能不容乐观。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">回到大盘走势上来,我们以纳斯达克100指数来分析,因为这现在是大盘最重要的支撑位。本周跌幅10.43%,连续跳空长阴线之后,收了一根放量阳线,这根阳线的底部刚好回踩200日均线,没有任何下影线,说起来还真挺巧的,这根阳线出现之后,大盘短期大概率是要继续往上反弹一波了。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">这张图是我对未来美股2~3个月走势的一个预测,我想也大概率会按照这个走势走,大家可以把这张图当成是未来几个月的操盘总纲,每天拿出来看一下对照下。简单说明下,黄线是当前的走势,红线是重要的支撑位,蓝线则是对未来走势的预测,而绿线则是为了帮助大家更清晰的看明白蓝线的走势。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">那么接下来的分析来了,大家很明显看到黄线的趋势,我们现在回踩200日均线之后止跌回升,按照惯性来说,大盘下周很有可能继续反弹,如果不继续拉升,周五进来的机构同样是实现不了拉高出货的目的,在8813的位置上还有一个跳空低开的缺口要补,而之前的支撑位会变成现在的压力位,也就是8910。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">也就是说,从技术形态上分析的话,纳指100要反弹到8813~8910这个区间范围,对应差不多4.15%~5.3%的涨幅,然后大盘被压力线强制压制,又会重新开始新的回调,但为什么接下来的走势不是之前的直线暴跌,而是蓝线那样的波动箱体下跌了。这逻辑其实很简单了,因为美联储会不断释放流动性,市场也会不断炒作降息预期。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">但形势恶化应该是一个确定性的趋势,中国是全球人口最多的国家之一,疆域也比较大,这是公共卫生事件在欧洲接下来如何传播扩散的一个很好参考,用中国的模型来看,欧洲现在才刚刚起步,而且现在美国也有爆发迹象了,接下来一段时间会不容乐观。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">所以大盘整体上还是会继续向下,等到哪一天再次跌破支撑线,那将会是另一波跌幅的开始。至于第二波下跌会跌多少,我觉得应该和这次差不多,仍然是10%左右。其实有一个重要支撑位,这是我们必须要关注的,那就是标普500指数的200周均线。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">从历史经验来看,每一次美股经历大的危机,回踩标普200日均线之后,那就是反弹买入的时机。现在距离标普200周线的2632差不多是10.91%的跌幅,如果回踩这个支撑线,美股刚好跌入熊市区间。但毕竟美股向上的趋势没变,估计刚跌入熊市区间,差不多也就是该反弹的时候了。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">未来一周的走势,其实不太好预测,现在大盘也完全没法预测,尤其现在我们不知道美国公共卫生事件发展到什么阶段,以及超级星期二桑德斯又会出什么幺蛾子的前提下,但总的方向请记住,那就是当纳指100反弹到8813以上的时候,很可能就是做空的机会。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">当然很多人可能希望看到我的建议,我这里就简单预测下,至于对不对我心里完全没底。这个判断的前提,特朗普虽然非常重视股市的健康,但下周大盘暴跌,他完全可以把锅甩给桑德斯,然后特朗普会跳出来说,“你们看,桑德斯现在只是当选民主党候选人,美股暴跌了;如果他担任美国总统,美股将彻底进入熊市”,在这样一个阶段,下周股市暴跌对特朗普是最有利的,但这时间点一定要是在超级星期二之前。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">所以走势很可能是这样的,周五那根放量阳线出现之后,周一会顺势高开高走,继续收一根放量阳线,造成大盘反弹的假象,周二继续高开,很可能周一、周二两天大盘涨幅就超过4个点,直接把跳空低开的缺口补上了,也是所谓的暴力反弹。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">周二的某个时候,超级星期二开始了,桑德斯赢得了民主党候选人,这应该是大概率事件,对股市会造成巨大的冲击波,大盘开始跳水把周二当天的涨幅完全吞没,最终在压力线下方收了一根阴十字星,这个时候,美国的公共卫生事件可能又开始发酵了,周三又开始新的一波暴跌。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">特朗普这个时候把大盘暴跌的锅完全甩给桑德斯,然后他站出来让美联储护盘,股市又开始重新反弹,但因为经济衰退和公共卫生事件的不确定因素仍然在,只要欧洲那边随便出点什么利空,美股又会重新开始下跌。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">我现在非常担心下周二的走势,如果桑德斯真的赢了,美股这个时候还在暴涨,那么特朗普一直强调的「桑德斯是美股最大黑天鹅」将不攻而破,这对特朗普是致命的。所以这样的背景下,特朗普让大盘暴跌一波,这才是对他最有利的。</p><p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\">当然上面的一切只是我的预测,这只是一个参考,仅此而已。(编辑:孟哲)</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股暴力反弹之后,总有暴跌在等着大家</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股暴力反弹之后,总有暴跌在等着大家\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-01 08:11 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2020-03-01/doc-iimxxstf5444059.shtml><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自 微信公众号“美股研究社”,作者:李俊。暴力反弹如约而至,在大盘连续暴跌5天,创下自金融危机以来最大单周跌幅之后,期待中的美联储救市和暴力反弹终于出现了。美股三大指数开盘后先是大幅下挫,道指盘中跌逾千点。随后鲍威尔发布声明称,“美联储正在密切关注事态发展及其对经济前景的影响,我们将采取适当的行动来支持经济。”声明发布后,美股集体拉升,衡量美股波动率的恐慌指数VIX涨幅迅速收窄。这样的走势...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2020-03-01/doc-iimxxstf5444059.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3032b14c2473d66d67c993a1e0a753c0","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2020-03-01/doc-iimxxstf5444059.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2016335909","content_text":"本文来自 微信公众号“美股研究社”,作者:李俊。暴力反弹如约而至,在大盘连续暴跌5天,创下自金融危机以来最大单周跌幅之后,期待中的美联储救市和暴力反弹终于出现了。美股三大指数开盘后先是大幅下挫,道指盘中跌逾千点。随后鲍威尔发布声明称,“美联储正在密切关注事态发展及其对经济前景的影响,我们将采取适当的行动来支持经济。”声明发布后,美股集体拉升,衡量美股波动率的恐慌指数VIX涨幅迅速收窄。这样的走势其实并不惊讶,早在周三的时候我就一直强调,大盘肯定要出现一波暴力反弹,只是没想到会来得这么晚。在一开始,我以为道琼斯指数回踩200日均线会是反弹信号,然后以为标普500指数回踩200日均线会是反弹信号,最后又以为纳斯达克指数回踩200日均线会是反弹信号。非常不幸,这三个预测全部错了,这些重要的支撑位无一例外全部跌破。估计所有人都没想到,三大股指会单周暴跌10%以上,均收了一根非常长的放量阴线,周K拦腰斩断了5周、10周、30周和50周均线,这种断头铡出现之后,距离大盘真正的底部可能还有不小的空间。周五触底反弹的原因,我这里简单分析下原因,其实主要有三点,第一点是纳指100(QQQ)回踩200日均线,这个你没看错,确实是纳指100,而不是纳斯达克指数,这里我也是后面复盘才发现的。纳指100成分股可以说是全球最优秀的100家科技公司了,纳斯达克则包含了几千家公司,这也说明大公司的下跌幅度是远比小公司要小的。第二点自然是鲍威尔的强势护盘,机构已经开始下注美联储会在3月降息。要知道,在一周之前,机构认为3月降息的概率只有5%,如今这个概率已上升到96%以上。当下公共卫生事件对全球经济的冲击,非常符合鲍威尔早前说的,如果发生重大影响经济走势的事件。虽然美联储仍然闭口不谈降息,但3月降息已成必然。第三点是黄金等大宗商品引发的抛售潮。昨天就有分析,不少基金因为爆仓,抛售了持有的黄金,把这些换成现金去股市抄底了。这也是为什么我们看到,昨天黄金瞬间跳水3个点以上,而大盘在同一时间迅速拉升的重要原因,新的流动性加入,自然对大盘有重要贡献。说到底,这一次的反弹只是超跌的技术性反弹,在连续暴跌并且跌破几乎所有支撑线之后,机构也亏的血本无归,他们自救的唯一办法就是拉高股市,然后让散户接盘,所以连续暴跌之后,总会有几次暴力反弹出现,这也是我为什么一直强调,现在每天的大盘走势根本无法预测。就拿周五来说吧,早上的时候期货是涨0.7%,到下午的时候期货跌了2%,再到晚上开盘之前,期货又一度翻涨,然后又迅速跳水到1.2%。等美股开盘之后,大盘迅速低开低走,一度跌幅高达3.6%,然后11点半的时候又迅速拉升到只跌2.5%,然后又在短短几分钟内跳水1%,最后就是我们看到的直线拉升。如此大的波动之下,大盘走势已经完全没有规律,而这背后则是投资者的无比恐慌,现在这种环境下,做多做空的风险都非常高。所以我仍然坚持一直强调的策略:做空那些财报暴雷的。这个在群里面说了无数次,这里再次强调下,逻辑很简单,大盘即使暴力反弹,财报暴雷的公司也大概率会顺势跌,大盘要是跳水,那就更不用说了。接下来想说下美联储的降息护盘,从历史经验来看,美联储的降息并不一定对大盘有正向作用。因为这要分成两种情况分析,一种是2018年底的经济扩张时期,美国经济在那个阶段不仅没有衰退,反而呈现出高速增长态势,大盘当时暴跌只是因为贸易战的不确定性和美联储加息。这个时候,美联储降息对大盘自然有非常积极的作用。现在情况并不是这样,这也是另一种降息背景。那就是公共卫生事件影响之下,经济可能即将步入衰退期,可能很多人并不认同经济要衰退,但没有2019年好,我想应该没人会否认这种情况,更重要的是能源、芯片、航空、旅游、广告等各个领域出现滑坡也已经是确定性的事件,支撑美股上涨的利润出现下滑已成必然。这个阶段,美股暴跌的逻辑并不是因为美联储,即使降息会短期内提振股票,但长期的经济走势并没有改变,一旦市场发现,美联储降息无法改善经济下滑趋势的时候,更惨烈的回调可能在后面等着我们了。现在的影响到底有多大,仍然是一个不确定性因素,但结合当前的消息来看,情况可能不容乐观。回到大盘走势上来,我们以纳斯达克100指数来分析,因为这现在是大盘最重要的支撑位。本周跌幅10.43%,连续跳空长阴线之后,收了一根放量阳线,这根阳线的底部刚好回踩200日均线,没有任何下影线,说起来还真挺巧的,这根阳线出现之后,大盘短期大概率是要继续往上反弹一波了。这张图是我对未来美股2~3个月走势的一个预测,我想也大概率会按照这个走势走,大家可以把这张图当成是未来几个月的操盘总纲,每天拿出来看一下对照下。简单说明下,黄线是当前的走势,红线是重要的支撑位,蓝线则是对未来走势的预测,而绿线则是为了帮助大家更清晰的看明白蓝线的走势。那么接下来的分析来了,大家很明显看到黄线的趋势,我们现在回踩200日均线之后止跌回升,按照惯性来说,大盘下周很有可能继续反弹,如果不继续拉升,周五进来的机构同样是实现不了拉高出货的目的,在8813的位置上还有一个跳空低开的缺口要补,而之前的支撑位会变成现在的压力位,也就是8910。也就是说,从技术形态上分析的话,纳指100要反弹到8813~8910这个区间范围,对应差不多4.15%~5.3%的涨幅,然后大盘被压力线强制压制,又会重新开始新的回调,但为什么接下来的走势不是之前的直线暴跌,而是蓝线那样的波动箱体下跌了。这逻辑其实很简单了,因为美联储会不断释放流动性,市场也会不断炒作降息预期。但形势恶化应该是一个确定性的趋势,中国是全球人口最多的国家之一,疆域也比较大,这是公共卫生事件在欧洲接下来如何传播扩散的一个很好参考,用中国的模型来看,欧洲现在才刚刚起步,而且现在美国也有爆发迹象了,接下来一段时间会不容乐观。所以大盘整体上还是会继续向下,等到哪一天再次跌破支撑线,那将会是另一波跌幅的开始。至于第二波下跌会跌多少,我觉得应该和这次差不多,仍然是10%左右。其实有一个重要支撑位,这是我们必须要关注的,那就是标普500指数的200周均线。从历史经验来看,每一次美股经历大的危机,回踩标普200日均线之后,那就是反弹买入的时机。现在距离标普200周线的2632差不多是10.91%的跌幅,如果回踩这个支撑线,美股刚好跌入熊市区间。但毕竟美股向上的趋势没变,估计刚跌入熊市区间,差不多也就是该反弹的时候了。未来一周的走势,其实不太好预测,现在大盘也完全没法预测,尤其现在我们不知道美国公共卫生事件发展到什么阶段,以及超级星期二桑德斯又会出什么幺蛾子的前提下,但总的方向请记住,那就是当纳指100反弹到8813以上的时候,很可能就是做空的机会。当然很多人可能希望看到我的建议,我这里就简单预测下,至于对不对我心里完全没底。这个判断的前提,特朗普虽然非常重视股市的健康,但下周大盘暴跌,他完全可以把锅甩给桑德斯,然后特朗普会跳出来说,“你们看,桑德斯现在只是当选民主党候选人,美股暴跌了;如果他担任美国总统,美股将彻底进入熊市”,在这样一个阶段,下周股市暴跌对特朗普是最有利的,但这时间点一定要是在超级星期二之前。所以走势很可能是这样的,周五那根放量阳线出现之后,周一会顺势高开高走,继续收一根放量阳线,造成大盘反弹的假象,周二继续高开,很可能周一、周二两天大盘涨幅就超过4个点,直接把跳空低开的缺口补上了,也是所谓的暴力反弹。周二的某个时候,超级星期二开始了,桑德斯赢得了民主党候选人,这应该是大概率事件,对股市会造成巨大的冲击波,大盘开始跳水把周二当天的涨幅完全吞没,最终在压力线下方收了一根阴十字星,这个时候,美国的公共卫生事件可能又开始发酵了,周三又开始新的一波暴跌。特朗普这个时候把大盘暴跌的锅完全甩给桑德斯,然后他站出来让美联储护盘,股市又开始重新反弹,但因为经济衰退和公共卫生事件的不确定因素仍然在,只要欧洲那边随便出点什么利空,美股又会重新开始下跌。我现在非常担心下周二的走势,如果桑德斯真的赢了,美股这个时候还在暴涨,那么特朗普一直强调的「桑德斯是美股最大黑天鹅」将不攻而破,这对特朗普是致命的。所以这样的背景下,特朗普让大盘暴跌一波,这才是对他最有利的。当然上面的一切只是我的预测,这只是一个参考,仅此而已。(编辑:孟哲)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983079696,"gmtCreate":1583033794715,"gmtModify":1704348579146,"author":{"id":"3499548317884485","authorId":"3499548317884485","authorIdStr":"3499548317884485","name":"june1990","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c586b34cbe7395cce0af5eac67681695","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对台积电是利好","listText":"对台积电是利好","text":"对台积电是利好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983079696","repostId":"2016133694","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2016133694","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"最有深度的半导体新媒体,实讯、专业、原创、深度,30万半导体精英关注!专注观察全球半导体最新资讯、技术前沿、发展趋势。《摩尔精英》《中国集成电路》共同出品,欢迎订阅摩尔旗下公众号:摩尔精英、摩尔芯闻、摩尔App","home_visible":1,"media_name":"半导体行业观察","id":"1001700217","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/705285f8deea4d7b8e48df7848a67868"},"pubTimestamp":1583032380,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2016133694?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-01 11:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"市场分析师郭明錤:苹果可能会在新电脑中首次放弃英特尔芯片","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2016133694","media":"半导体行业观察","summary":"来源:内容来自「TechTudo」,谢谢。市场分析师郭明錤表示,从2021年起,苹果可能会将英特尔处理器换上自己电脑上的芯片。这一措施已经在互联网上流传了一段时间,因为ARM架构组件已经被苹果开发出来","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16c803a14c3c5b15a837f5d5aaa30777\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></span></p><h4 arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>来源:内容来自「<span>TechTudo</span>」,谢谢。</span></h4><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">市场分析师郭明錤表示,从2021年起,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>可能会将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>处理器换上自己电脑上的芯片。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">这一措施已经在互联网上流传了一段时间,因为ARM架构组件已经被苹果开发出来,并在iphone和ipad上使用了十多年。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">这种类型的处理器在最近几代中以良好的性能而备受瞩目,在某些情况下甚至超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>和Intel系列的顶级机型。</span></p><p><strong><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">分析师认为,苹果即将推出带有自己处理器的Mac。</span></strong></p><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">新一代苹果手机的处理器将取代iPhone 11、iPhone 11 Pro和iPhone 11 Pro Max中现有的A13。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">这位分析人士说,随着5纳米制造工艺的到来,向最终的A14的迁移将得到支持,这与性能和能源消耗效率的提高有关。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">因此,新一代cpu将是这种变化的理想候选者。</span></p><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">从技术上讲,这种交换将远远超出简单的供应商更换。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">英特尔芯片是围绕一个名为x86的架构构建的,这与苹果处理器中使用的ARM标准模型非常不同。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">这意味着,变更可能代表与在一个或其他体系结构中运行所创建的软件支持相关的挑战。</span></p><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">这与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>在将snapdragon(也属于ARM类型)引入Windows的过程中所面临的问题是一样的。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">无论如何,重要的是要记住,苹果在这方面有一些经验,因为它在2006年至2007年间成功地从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>的PowerPC平台迁移到Intel芯片。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29fced554df773895ee11a65893490c2\"/></p><p><span><em><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">苹果将利用向5纳米制造技术的进步来进行迁移-照片:</span></em></span><span><em><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">Reproduction / Apple</span></em></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">macOS系统最近的一些变化也促成了处理器间的交换,现在macOS系统提供了一些工具,开发人员可以更容易地转换为ipad创建的应用程序。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">此外,制造商在其家电商店制定了一项通用采购政策,在该政策中,为iOS购买的任何程序也可以安装在苹果电脑上。</span></p><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">除了表现出对个人电脑(已经在移动电话上出现)设计的更大控制之外,处理器背后的ARM架构往往使芯片在能耗方面效率更高。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">因此,这些CPU很可能首先出现在MacBooks中,MacBooks有一个可移植的建议。</span></p><p>*免责声明:本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点,半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点,不代表半导体行业观察对该观点赞同或支持,如果有任何异议,欢迎联系半导体行业观察。</p><p><strong>今天是《半导体行业观察》为您分享的第2235期内容,欢迎关注。</strong></p><p>推荐阅读</p><p>★<span>氮化镓代工将成为新赛场</span></p><p>★<span>CIS封测业爆发,谁将成为最大受益者?</span></p><p>★<span>半导体制造企业开启军备竞赛</span></p><p>半导体行业观察</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450051f0ca3fb1b99b08a09ad4691ae5\"/></p><p>『<strong>半导体第一垂直媒体</strong><span>』</span></p><p><strong>实时 专业 原创 深度</strong></p><p><strong>识别二维码</strong>,回复下方关键词,阅读更多</p><p>“芯”系疫情<span>|功率半导体</span><span>|TWS</span>|华为<span>|</span>存储<span>|</span>Fab|MCU|小米</p><p><span>回复 <strong>投稿</strong>,看《如何成为“半导体行业观察”的一员 》</span></p><p>回复 <strong>搜索</strong>,还能轻松找到其他你感兴趣的文章!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77da5c9fabeb9d1beeab10160b369424\"/></p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场分析师郭明錤:苹果可能会在新电脑中首次放弃英特尔芯片</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场分析师郭明錤:苹果可能会在新电脑中首次放弃英特尔芯片\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1001700217\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/705285f8deea4d7b8e48df7848a67868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">半导体行业观察 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-01 11:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>\n<p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16c803a14c3c5b15a837f5d5aaa30777\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></span></p><h4 arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>来源:内容来自「<span>TechTudo</span>」,谢谢。</span></h4><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">市场分析师郭明錤表示,从2021年起,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>可能会将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>处理器换上自己电脑上的芯片。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">这一措施已经在互联网上流传了一段时间,因为ARM架构组件已经被苹果开发出来,并在iphone和ipad上使用了十多年。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">这种类型的处理器在最近几代中以良好的性能而备受瞩目,在某些情况下甚至超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>和Intel系列的顶级机型。</span></p><p><strong><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">分析师认为,苹果即将推出带有自己处理器的Mac。</span></strong></p><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">新一代苹果手机的处理器将取代iPhone 11、iPhone 11 Pro和iPhone 11 Pro Max中现有的A13。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">这位分析人士说,随着5纳米制造工艺的到来,向最终的A14的迁移将得到支持,这与性能和能源消耗效率的提高有关。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">因此,新一代cpu将是这种变化的理想候选者。</span></p><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">从技术上讲,这种交换将远远超出简单的供应商更换。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">英特尔芯片是围绕一个名为x86的架构构建的,这与苹果处理器中使用的ARM标准模型非常不同。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">这意味着,变更可能代表与在一个或其他体系结构中运行所创建的软件支持相关的挑战。</span></p><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">这与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>在将snapdragon(也属于ARM类型)引入Windows的过程中所面临的问题是一样的。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">无论如何,重要的是要记住,苹果在这方面有一些经验,因为它在2006年至2007年间成功地从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>的PowerPC平台迁移到Intel芯片。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29fced554df773895ee11a65893490c2\"/></p><p><span><em><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">苹果将利用向5纳米制造技术的进步来进行迁移-照片:</span></em></span><span><em><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">Reproduction / Apple</span></em></span></p><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">macOS系统最近的一些变化也促成了处理器间的交换,现在macOS系统提供了一些工具,开发人员可以更容易地转换为ipad创建的应用程序。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">此外,制造商在其家电商店制定了一项通用采购政策,在该政策中,为iOS购买的任何程序也可以安装在苹果电脑上。</span></p><p><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">除了表现出对个人电脑(已经在移动电话上出现)设计的更大控制之外,处理器背后的ARM架构往往使芯片在能耗方面效率更高。</span><span arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" yahei=\"\">因此,这些CPU很可能首先出现在MacBooks中,MacBooks有一个可移植的建议。</span></p><p>*免责声明:本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点,半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点,不代表半导体行业观察对该观点赞同或支持,如果有任何异议,欢迎联系半导体行业观察。</p><p><strong>今天是《半导体行业观察》为您分享的第2235期内容,欢迎关注。</strong></p><p>推荐阅读</p><p>★<span>氮化镓代工将成为新赛场</span></p><p>★<span>CIS封测业爆发,谁将成为最大受益者?</span></p><p>★<span>半导体制造企业开启军备竞赛</span></p><p>半导体行业观察</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450051f0ca3fb1b99b08a09ad4691ae5\"/></p><p>『<strong>半导体第一垂直媒体</strong><span>』</span></p><p><strong>实时 专业 原创 深度</strong></p><p><strong>识别二维码</strong>,回复下方关键词,阅读更多</p><p>“芯”系疫情<span>|功率半导体</span><span>|TWS</span>|华为<span>|</span>存储<span>|</span>Fab|MCU|小米</p><p><span>回复 <strong>投稿</strong>,看《如何成为“半导体行业观察”的一员 》</span></p><p>回复 <strong>搜索</strong>,还能轻松找到其他你感兴趣的文章!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77da5c9fabeb9d1beeab10160b369424\"/></p>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c95dc9b62af63b498dce2238fb18ba3","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","03086":"华夏纳指","09086":"华夏纳指-U","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU3OTA0MjQ3Mg==&mid=2247532170&idx=5&sn=b421b5d683dc9b1e7f1d58ba52892602&chksm=fd6e134dca199a5b9eb3a58e96b6cb7dbb40f95e9a798aeeb4ad0a1ff7a5e73de1633ce58576&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2016133694","content_text":"来源:内容来自「TechTudo」,谢谢。市场分析师郭明錤表示,从2021年起,苹果可能会将英特尔处理器换上自己电脑上的芯片。这一措施已经在互联网上流传了一段时间,因为ARM架构组件已经被苹果开发出来,并在iphone和ipad上使用了十多年。这种类型的处理器在最近几代中以良好的性能而备受瞩目,在某些情况下甚至超过了AMD和Intel系列的顶级机型。分析师认为,苹果即将推出带有自己处理器的Mac。新一代苹果手机的处理器将取代iPhone 11、iPhone 11 Pro和iPhone 11 Pro Max中现有的A13。这位分析人士说,随着5纳米制造工艺的到来,向最终的A14的迁移将得到支持,这与性能和能源消耗效率的提高有关。因此,新一代cpu将是这种变化的理想候选者。从技术上讲,这种交换将远远超出简单的供应商更换。英特尔芯片是围绕一个名为x86的架构构建的,这与苹果处理器中使用的ARM标准模型非常不同。这意味着,变更可能代表与在一个或其他体系结构中运行所创建的软件支持相关的挑战。这与微软和高通在将snapdragon(也属于ARM类型)引入Windows的过程中所面临的问题是一样的。无论如何,重要的是要记住,苹果在这方面有一些经验,因为它在2006年至2007年间成功地从IBM的PowerPC平台迁移到Intel芯片。苹果将利用向5纳米制造技术的进步来进行迁移-照片:Reproduction / ApplemacOS系统最近的一些变化也促成了处理器间的交换,现在macOS系统提供了一些工具,开发人员可以更容易地转换为ipad创建的应用程序。此外,制造商在其家电商店制定了一项通用采购政策,在该政策中,为iOS购买的任何程序也可以安装在苹果电脑上。除了表现出对个人电脑(已经在移动电话上出现)设计的更大控制之外,处理器背后的ARM架构往往使芯片在能耗方面效率更高。因此,这些CPU很可能首先出现在MacBooks中,MacBooks有一个可移植的建议。*免责声明:本文由作者原创。文章内容系作者个人观点,半导体行业观察转载仅为了传达一种不同的观点,不代表半导体行业观察对该观点赞同或支持,如果有任何异议,欢迎联系半导体行业观察。今天是《半导体行业观察》为您分享的第2235期内容,欢迎关注。推荐阅读★氮化镓代工将成为新赛场★CIS封测业爆发,谁将成为最大受益者?★半导体制造企业开启军备竞赛半导体行业观察『半导体第一垂直媒体』实时 专业 原创 深度识别二维码,回复下方关键词,阅读更多“芯”系疫情|功率半导体|TWS|华为|存储|Fab|MCU|小米回复 投稿,看《如何成为“半导体行业观察”的一员 》回复 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13:35","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"外资还想来中国买买买吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107693771","media":"经济观察网","summary":"“有没有便宜?”\n叶国平和机构投资者交流时,听到的第一句话,往往是这个问题。\n2020年突如其来的疫情导致很多行业几近停摆,房地产大宗交易也不例外。\n戴德梁行大中华区资本市场总裁、中国资本市场主管叶国","content":"<div>\n<p>“有没有便宜?”\n叶国平和机构投资者交流时,听到的第一句话,往往是这个问题。\n2020年突如其来的疫情导致很多行业几近停摆,房地产大宗交易也不例外。\n戴德梁行大中华区资本市场总裁、中国资本市场主管叶国平主持了一场调研,选取了过去3年在中国大陆活跃的122家投资机构的高层,了解疫情对投资意向、交易时点、资产组合、投资额度、城市选择的影响。\n调研开始之前,叶国平还有点担心,但结果却出乎预料。\n99%的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.eeo.com.cn/2020/0226/377100.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"jjgcw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外资还想来中国买买买吗?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/682417bb8d01bd2903a5dd05857041ce","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"http://www.eeo.com.cn/2020/0226/377100.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107693771","content_text":"“有没有便宜?”\n叶国平和机构投资者交流时,听到的第一句话,往往是这个问题。\n2020年突如其来的疫情导致很多行业几近停摆,房地产大宗交易也不例外。\n戴德梁行大中华区资本市场总裁、中国资本市场主管叶国平主持了一场调研,选取了过去3年在中国大陆活跃的122家投资机构的高层,了解疫情对投资意向、交易时点、资产组合、投资额度、城市选择的影响。\n调研开始之前,叶国平还有点担心,但结果却出乎预料。\n99%的投资者认为,疫情不会影响今年在中国大陆的投资活动;近90%的投资者表示,预算额度与2019年持平或有明显增长;超过90%的投资者看好北京和上海,100%外资受访者未来12个月内有投资上海的计划。\n叶国平解释,房地产大宗交易与股票市场不同,即便是短期投资,时间跨度也要三到五年,长期投资都是七八年,甚至买来便不打算出售,作为全球资产配置。投资机构在全球募集了那么多钱,是一定要投向房地产的,调整的只是时间节点。\n没有便宜\n中国房地产大宗交易的热度已经持续了三年多,“外资买空北上广深写字楼”一度成为热门话题。\n戴德梁行数据显示,2018年的交易额达到了创纪录的3034亿元,即便2019年受到经济形势和贸易摩擦等因素影响,交易额也达到了约2876亿元。\n现在的疫情之下,有投资意向的,不能实地看楼只能暂停;进行中的交易,谈判、尽调等常规动作也只能放缓;而一笔大宗交易,从谈判到完成买卖,快则三四个月,慢则半年多,因此,今年的大宗交易成交量正以肉眼可见的速度下跌。\n往年一个月总有几栋写字楼成交,但是在今年一二月份,全国也只有零星的一两个成交而已,可以预见,2020年房地产大宗交易额很难保持此前水平。\n尽管市场活跃度受疫情影响下降,但这不意味着资产正变得便宜。\n叶国平介绍,目前业主叫价没有大幅下降,买家也不敢说业主要价100,我就给他80。“大家都觉得这里面有机会,可能捡便宜,但也知道便宜很难捡,他们想要的资产都在一线城市,但一线城市的流动性很好,当很多人都想捡便宜的时候,是没有便宜可捡的。”\n内资机会\n戴德梁行选取的122家投资机构中,有63家外资投资机构、55家内资投资机构,以及4家家族投资者。\n叶国平说,从调研中看,内资和外资投资者的心态比较像,主要区别是外资尤其看好一线城市,而在二线城市,内资的投资意愿高于外资。\n此外,还有一个显而易见的区别是,疫情期间,外资到中国看项目受到的影响较大,叶国平认为,这可能是内资的一个机会。\n在大宗交易市场上,活跃的内资主要是几家龙头保险公司,今年年初,大部分在房地产上没有投资额度,即便有额度,因为资金成本高于外资,对项目的资本化率要求也比较高;\n此外,外资的资产管理能力普遍较好,可以通过改造运营实现资产升值,增加投资回报率,而中资的保险公司,普遍缺少专门的人做资产管理。\n总体而言,内资比外资的竞争力小,很难去争一些项目,最近两三个月,如果内资有投资计划,可能会争取到一些机会。\n投资组合\n调研结果显示,投资者未来12个月的资产组合中,物流地产、数据中心、社区商业热度上升,写字楼/商务园、酒店/服务式公寓、购物中心的热度下降。\n不过,写字楼/商务园区仍然最受投资者们青睐,86%的内资和85%的内资选择投资这一类别,其次是物流仓库和数据中心。\n叶国平表示,这一排序反映出了投资者的心态,实际操作中,写字楼还是投资者的主流方向,因为市场上的选择比较多,物流仓库和数据中心的选择很少。\n在购物中心排在上述三类资产之后,因为购物中心非常依赖运营,如果没有一个好的管理团队,一般不会成为投资者的优先选项。\n值得一提的是,疫情影响下,和消费者距离更近的社区商业,投资意愿有所上升。\n三只黑天鹅\n叶国平在戴德梁行工作了26年,最初以香港市场为主,近十多年参与了大量内地物业交易,2019年初,凯德及合作方收购上海浦发大厦便是经他操盘。\n职业生涯中,像此次疫情一样的黑天鹅,叶国平还经历过另外两只——2003年的SARS和2008年的金融危机。\n叶国平回忆,2003年,中国的房地产市场刚处于上升期,市场规模小,大宗交易并不活跃,因此受到的SARS影响有限;到2008年全球金融危机时,中国的金融系统得到了政府的保护,受到的影响相比美国和欧洲来讲也比较小,当时外资抛售资产时,在大陆很快可以找到买家,且价格合理,至2009年市场反弹,这些项目增值都很可观。\n今年的疫情下,中国的房地产市场已经和前两次黑天鹅时明显不同,资产价格更高、市场规模更大,参与者的活跃度也更高。\n叶国平表示,对大宗交易的投资者来说,最重要的便是把握时间,低潮时买进、高潮时卖出,一直向上的市场,投资者是很害怕的,现在反而是一个机会。\n设计此次调研问卷时,叶国平说,不想做一个不用调查就知道结果的调查,所以很多调研都是一两个小时交流的结果,叶国平整体的感觉是,投资者对中国的情况不太担心,但也不愿意给一个时间节点,到底两个月还是三个月会好,他们不知道答案,认为这个问题很无聊,确定的是,他们在不断关注市场变化,关注新的和旧的机会,一旦情况稳定,他们希望自己是第一个出手的人。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989905036,"gmtCreate":1582663924625,"gmtModify":1704347238102,"author":{"id":"3499548317884485","authorId":"3499548317884485","authorIdStr":"3499548317884485","name":"june1990","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c586b34cbe7395cce0af5eac67681695","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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