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frazer
2021-02-25
$Pure Storage Inc(PSTG)$
财报不错吧,都没人理么
frazer
2021-01-15
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
动物凶猛
frazer
2020-03-10
$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$
游轮不是刚需,封闭属性太恐怖,暂时不会起来了,最低看到15
frazer
2019-06-13
$AMD(AMD)$ 你咋这么萎呢
frazer
2020-08-03
$Spirit Airlines(SAVE)$
加仓吗
frazer
2020-05-28
$蔚来(NIO)$
真香
frazer
2021-01-27
$Yalla Group(YALA)$
没有一丝丝防备,又起来了
frazer
2020-03-10
这种散文写法还是第一次见
A股 VS 美股,可能的历史大背离
frazer
2019-08-02
$Fluidigm Corporation(FLDM)$
财报不算很差吧
frazer
2021-12-29
$商汤-W(00020)$
市盈率正的什么鬼
frazer
2021-03-02
$Yalla Group(YALA)$
今天稳住就行
frazer
2021-02-19
$Yalla Group(YALA)$
每天不来十多个点,不是你风格
frazer
2020-09-03
$迪士尼(DIS)$
这盘后啥情况
frazer
2020-07-09
$Revolve Group, LLC(RVLV)$
起来了?
frazer
2020-06-05
$Spirit Airlines(SAVE)$
能不能给个上车的机会
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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08:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A股 VS 美股,可能的历史大背离","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2018511484","media":"投觉","summary":"风险(无常)本身具有遍历性,有些风险(无常)恰恰是我们必须承受的。","content":"<p>作者:梧桐 投觉</p><p><span>昨天,全球权益资产价格的黑色星期一。</span></p><p><span>美股开盘4分钟,标普500指数暴跌-7%,触发了第一层熔断机制,暂停交易15分钟,截至收盘,道指下跌-7.79%,</span><span><b>标普500指数下跌-7.60%,创2008年12月以来最大单日跌幅,</b></span><span>纳指下跌-7.29%。</span></p><p><span>不仅如此,</span><span><b>WTI 4月原油期货下跌-24.59%,报31.13美元/桶,创1991年以来最大单日跌幅,</b></span><span>而最具避险属性的黄金,由于高企的价格,削弱了其本身在这场金融混乱之中了避险价值。</span></p><p><b><span>尽管我们还很难将之定义为一场金融危机,但是,它的确已经从一场金融混乱走向金融危机的边缘,一是蝴蝶效应,二是宏观分形,三是在可见视野里,尚且看不到打破宏观现实、投资者预期与交易三者之间反身性的曙光。</span></b></p><p><span>历史不会简单重复,然而,其脚步却总是踏着相似的黑白琴键。</span></p><p><span>2008年美国次贷危机的主要来源就是,超级脆弱推手艾伦·格林斯潘(回顾历史,他无疑是最高级别的创伤源了)旨在消除“经济繁荣与衰退的周期”的各项举措,导致所有风险藏于地下且不断积聚,最终摧毁了经济,引发了“医源性损伤”。这些旨在消除经济周期的努力,是所有脆弱性的根源。</span></p><p><span>在此全球共振的Risk Off的背景脉络中,A股证券市场可能正在经历一个空头陷阱,昨天(20200309),万得全A下跌-3.57%,尽管如此,就单个交易日而言,我们仍然可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益,就2020年以来(截至20200306)而言,我们同样可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14521abd2a67d3e04f29c2cc85a4b8d\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02122ad96357d1ca45aafbac18eaecef\" /></p><p><span>因此,尽管A股证券市场也会在全球金融市场一片混乱的裹挟中大幅回落,但是,梧桐对于A股证券市场并不悲观。</span></p><p><b><span>在梧桐的视野里,美国去全球化中的脆弱,中国去全球化中的反脆弱;美国应对危机的组织能力中性,中国应对危机的组织能力星球第一;美国货币政策的空间逼仄,中国货币政策的游刃有余;美国是经济政治学,中国是政治经济学;美股相对高位,A股相对低位;美股不乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯,A股缺乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯。</span></b></p><p><b><span>若是对于这些有着清晰明见,那么,我们就可能在2020年遇见这个历史转身中的A股、美股的大背离。</span></b></p><p><span>这个大背离的意思是说,A股收益率向上趋势,美股收益率向下趋势。</span></p><p><span>A股证券市场还比较年轻,至今不过三十年,上一次A股、美股的大背离发生在2000年,那个时候,Cold war结束不到十年,中国尚未加入WTO,对于中国来说,世界还不是平的,全球化还在启程和展开之中。</span></p><p><span>二十年后,全球化已经开始走向去全球化,历史已经开始转身,中美已经开始对峙,世界已经不是平的,A股、美股是否走向历史的大背离,答案留给未来历史,只是,它的确具有宏观的现实可能性。</span></p><p><span>如今,当美国走到一个创新周期的拐点(创新周期的拐点往往意味着一个经济周期的拐点),这时,美国试图由敞开转向去全球化、强制中心化时,便有了一丝强弩之末的味道。</span></p><p><span>硬币的一面是,Trump挥起了大棒,演绎强人政治的一场大戏,硬币的另一面是,诸神的黄昏时刻或许正在渐次降临。</span></p><p><span>这亦是周期,每一个世纪都有一个全球中心的切换,意大利,荷兰,英国,美国,等等。这个世界,它是生物性的,它遵循了生态系统的演变规律,当一种生物强大到这个生态系统无法承受的时候,那么,它就走到了一个瓶颈时刻,它当然想要挣脱,然而,这个世界并没有什么胜天半子。</span></p><p><b><span>风会熄灭蜡烛,却能使火越烧越旺。</span></b></p><p><span>事实上,即便是2008年美国次贷危机那大萧条以来最为严重的金融危机,都没有将中国拖入长期衰退的境地,这个超级庞然大物具有相当的反脆弱性。问题的重点在于,中国经济结构调整的压力巨大,而周期内部结构的演进与变化,对于经济增长和A股证券市场投资而言,更为重要,因为这是寻找未来机会的方向和线索。</span></p><p><b><span>最终,只有更好地理解了这个世界,理解了整个宏观现实的背景脉络,才能更好地理解A股证券市场。</span></b></p><p><span>功夫在诗外,很多时候,你以为是你的投资胜利了,其实是你的世界观胜利了,若是真的想在此生中取得投资的胜利(偶尔的胜利,不值一提),那么,必须在世界观上下功夫。</span></p><p><span>当你被投资世界的热风裹挟之时,不妨安静下来,想一想,毕竟,我们已经经历了一个核心资产扩张的结构性牛市,以及一个科技股疯狂的结构性牛市。</span></p><p><span>当你被投资世界的恐慌裹挟之时,不妨安静下来,想一想,毕竟,无风险利率下行在那儿,资产荒在那儿,房住不炒在那儿,以及范式转换的未完成。</span></p><p><span>在投资世界,最重要的不是预期收益率,而是风险。这个风险在梧桐的语境里,就是无常,只是不同的名相。</span><span><b>风险(无常)本身具有遍历性,有些风险(无常)恰恰是我们必须承受的。</b></span><span>这其中,关键因素在于风险是否合理定价,风险到底有没有补偿,补偿是否充分,事实上,在梧桐的视野里,空头陷阱之中的A股证券市场,风险补偿正在变得越来越友好。重要的是,在知止与进击之间,在填充与留白之中,保持合宜的平衡。</span></p><p><span>码到这里的时候,梧桐不禁又一次想起杰克·凯鲁亚克在《在路上》一书中写到的,</span><span><b>世界旅行不像它看上去的那么美好,只是在你从所有炎热和狼狈中归来之后,你忘记了所受的折磨,回忆着遇见的不可思议的景色,它才是美好的。</b></span></p>","source":"lsy1572231153591","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A股 VS 美股,可能的历史大背离</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA股 VS 美股,可能的历史大背离\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-10 08:11 北京时间 <a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/354382><strong>投觉</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:梧桐 投觉昨天,全球权益资产价格的黑色星期一。美股开盘4分钟,标普500指数暴跌-7%,触发了第一层熔断机制,暂停交易15分钟,截至收盘,道指下跌-7.79%,标普500指数下跌-7.60%,创2008年12月以来最大单日跌幅,纳指下跌-7.29%。不仅如此,WTI 4月原油期货下跌-24.59%,报31.13美元/桶,创1991年以来最大单日跌幅,而最具避险属性的黄金,由于高企的价格,削弱...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/354382\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3108c3b848b979a79a1bef92bbef7e60","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/354382","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2018511484","content_text":"作者:梧桐 投觉昨天,全球权益资产价格的黑色星期一。美股开盘4分钟,标普500指数暴跌-7%,触发了第一层熔断机制,暂停交易15分钟,截至收盘,道指下跌-7.79%,标普500指数下跌-7.60%,创2008年12月以来最大单日跌幅,纳指下跌-7.29%。不仅如此,WTI 4月原油期货下跌-24.59%,报31.13美元/桶,创1991年以来最大单日跌幅,而最具避险属性的黄金,由于高企的价格,削弱了其本身在这场金融混乱之中了避险价值。尽管我们还很难将之定义为一场金融危机,但是,它的确已经从一场金融混乱走向金融危机的边缘,一是蝴蝶效应,二是宏观分形,三是在可见视野里,尚且看不到打破宏观现实、投资者预期与交易三者之间反身性的曙光。历史不会简单重复,然而,其脚步却总是踏着相似的黑白琴键。2008年美国次贷危机的主要来源就是,超级脆弱推手艾伦·格林斯潘(回顾历史,他无疑是最高级别的创伤源了)旨在消除“经济繁荣与衰退的周期”的各项举措,导致所有风险藏于地下且不断积聚,最终摧毁了经济,引发了“医源性损伤”。这些旨在消除经济周期的努力,是所有脆弱性的根源。在此全球共振的Risk Off的背景脉络中,A股证券市场可能正在经历一个空头陷阱,昨天(20200309),万得全A下跌-3.57%,尽管如此,就单个交易日而言,我们仍然可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益,就2020年以来(截至20200306)而言,我们同样可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益。因此,尽管A股证券市场也会在全球金融市场一片混乱的裹挟中大幅回落,但是,梧桐对于A股证券市场并不悲观。在梧桐的视野里,美国去全球化中的脆弱,中国去全球化中的反脆弱;美国应对危机的组织能力中性,中国应对危机的组织能力星球第一;美国货币政策的空间逼仄,中国货币政策的游刃有余;美国是经济政治学,中国是政治经济学;美股相对高位,A股相对低位;美股不乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯,A股缺乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯。若是对于这些有着清晰明见,那么,我们就可能在2020年遇见这个历史转身中的A股、美股的大背离。这个大背离的意思是说,A股收益率向上趋势,美股收益率向下趋势。A股证券市场还比较年轻,至今不过三十年,上一次A股、美股的大背离发生在2000年,那个时候,Cold war结束不到十年,中国尚未加入WTO,对于中国来说,世界还不是平的,全球化还在启程和展开之中。二十年后,全球化已经开始走向去全球化,历史已经开始转身,中美已经开始对峙,世界已经不是平的,A股、美股是否走向历史的大背离,答案留给未来历史,只是,它的确具有宏观的现实可能性。如今,当美国走到一个创新周期的拐点(创新周期的拐点往往意味着一个经济周期的拐点),这时,美国试图由敞开转向去全球化、强制中心化时,便有了一丝强弩之末的味道。硬币的一面是,Trump挥起了大棒,演绎强人政治的一场大戏,硬币的另一面是,诸神的黄昏时刻或许正在渐次降临。这亦是周期,每一个世纪都有一个全球中心的切换,意大利,荷兰,英国,美国,等等。这个世界,它是生物性的,它遵循了生态系统的演变规律,当一种生物强大到这个生态系统无法承受的时候,那么,它就走到了一个瓶颈时刻,它当然想要挣脱,然而,这个世界并没有什么胜天半子。风会熄灭蜡烛,却能使火越烧越旺。事实上,即便是2008年美国次贷危机那大萧条以来最为严重的金融危机,都没有将中国拖入长期衰退的境地,这个超级庞然大物具有相当的反脆弱性。问题的重点在于,中国经济结构调整的压力巨大,而周期内部结构的演进与变化,对于经济增长和A股证券市场投资而言,更为重要,因为这是寻找未来机会的方向和线索。最终,只有更好地理解了这个世界,理解了整个宏观现实的背景脉络,才能更好地理解A股证券市场。功夫在诗外,很多时候,你以为是你的投资胜利了,其实是你的世界观胜利了,若是真的想在此生中取得投资的胜利(偶尔的胜利,不值一提),那么,必须在世界观上下功夫。当你被投资世界的热风裹挟之时,不妨安静下来,想一想,毕竟,我们已经经历了一个核心资产扩张的结构性牛市,以及一个科技股疯狂的结构性牛市。当你被投资世界的恐慌裹挟之时,不妨安静下来,想一想,毕竟,无风险利率下行在那儿,资产荒在那儿,房住不炒在那儿,以及范式转换的未完成。在投资世界,最重要的不是预期收益率,而是风险。这个风险在梧桐的语境里,就是无常,只是不同的名相。风险(无常)本身具有遍历性,有些风险(无常)恰恰是我们必须承受的。这其中,关键因素在于风险是否合理定价,风险到底有没有补偿,补偿是否充分,事实上,在梧桐的视野里,空头陷阱之中的A股证券市场,风险补偿正在变得越来越友好。重要的是,在知止与进击之间,在填充与留白之中,保持合宜的平衡。码到这里的时候,梧桐不禁又一次想起杰克·凯鲁亚克在《在路上》一书中写到的,世界旅行不像它看上去的那么美好,只是在你从所有炎热和狼狈中归来之后,你忘记了所受的折磨,回忆着遇见的不可思议的景色,它才是美好的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991698621,"gmtCreate":1564709724063,"gmtModify":1704707680733,"author":{"id":"3497436807661231","authorId":"3497436807661231","authorIdStr":"3497436807661231","name":"frazer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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