frazer的个人主页 - 老虎社区

frazer

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IP属地：北京

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2021-12-29

$商汤-W(00020)$市盈率正的什么鬼

2021-03-02

$Yalla Group(YALA)$今天稳住就行

2021-02-25

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2021-01-27

$Yalla Group(YALA)$没有一丝丝防备，又起来了

2021-01-15

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2020-09-03

$迪士尼(DIS)$这盘后啥情况

2020-08-03

$Spirit Airlines(SAVE)$加仓吗

2020-07-09

$Revolve Group, LLC(RVLV)$起来了？

2020-06-05

$Spirit Airlines(SAVE)$能不能给个上车的机会

2020-05-28

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2020-03-10

$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$游轮不是刚需，封闭属性太恐怖，暂时不会起来了，最低看到15

2020-03-10

这种散文写法还是第一次见

抱歉，原内容已删除

2019-08-02

$Fluidigm Corporation(FLDM)$ 财报不算很差吧

2019-06-13

$AMD(AMD)$ 你咋这么萎呢

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08:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"A股 VS 美股，可能的历史大背离","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2018511484","media":"投觉","summary":"风险（无常）本身具有遍历性，有些风险（无常）恰恰是我们必须承受的。","content":"<p>作者：梧桐 投觉</p><p><span>昨天，全球权益资产价格的黑色星期一。</span></p><p><span>美股开盘4分钟，标普500指数暴跌-7%，触发了第一层熔断机制，暂停交易15分钟，截至收盘，道指下跌-7.79%，</span><span><b>标普500指数下跌-7.60%，创2008年12月以来最大单日跌幅，</b></span><span>纳指下跌-7.29%。</span></p><p><span>不仅如此，</span><span><b>WTI 4月原油期货下跌-24.59%，报31.13美元/桶，创1991年以来最大单日跌幅，</b></span><span>而最具避险属性的黄金，由于高企的价格，削弱了其本身在这场金融混乱之中了避险价值。</span></p><p><b><span>尽管我们还很难将之定义为一场金融危机，但是，它的确已经从一场金融混乱走向金融危机的边缘，一是蝴蝶效应，二是宏观分形，三是在可见视野里，尚且看不到打破宏观现实、投资者预期与交易三者之间反身性的曙光。</span></b></p><p><span>历史不会简单重复，然而，其脚步却总是踏着相似的黑白琴键。</span></p><p><span>2008年美国次贷危机的主要来源就是，超级脆弱推手艾伦·格林斯潘（回顾历史，他无疑是最高级别的创伤源了）旨在消除“经济繁荣与衰退的周期”的各项举措，导致所有风险藏于地下且不断积聚，最终摧毁了经济，引发了“医源性损伤”。这些旨在消除经济周期的努力，是所有脆弱性的根源。</span></p><p><span>在此全球共振的Risk Off的背景脉络中，A股证券市场可能正在经历一个空头陷阱，昨天（20200309），万得全A下跌-3.57%，尽管如此，就单个交易日而言，我们仍然可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益，就2020年以来（截至20200306）而言，我们同样可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e14521abd2a67d3e04f29c2cc85a4b8d\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02122ad96357d1ca45aafbac18eaecef\" /></p><p><span>因此，尽管A股证券市场也会在全球金融市场一片混乱的裹挟中大幅回落，但是，梧桐对于A股证券市场并不悲观。</span></p><p><b><span>在梧桐的视野里，美国去全球化中的脆弱，中国去全球化中的反脆弱；美国应对危机的组织能力中性，中国应对危机的组织能力星球第一；美国货币政策的空间逼仄，中国货币政策的游刃有余；美国是经济政治学，中国是政治经济学；美股相对高位，A股相对低位；美股不乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯，A股缺乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯。</span></b></p><p><b><span>若是对于这些有着清晰明见，那么，我们就可能在2020年遇见这个历史转身中的A股、美股的大背离。</span></b></p><p><span>这个大背离的意思是说，A股收益率向上趋势，美股收益率向下趋势。</span></p><p><span>A股证券市场还比较年轻，至今不过三十年，上一次A股、美股的大背离发生在2000年，那个时候，Cold war结束不到十年，中国尚未加入WTO，对于中国来说，世界还不是平的，全球化还在启程和展开之中。</span></p><p><span>二十年后，全球化已经开始走向去全球化，历史已经开始转身，中美已经开始对峙，世界已经不是平的，A股、美股是否走向历史的大背离，答案留给未来历史，只是，它的确具有宏观的现实可能性。</span></p><p><span>如今，当美国走到一个创新周期的拐点（创新周期的拐点往往意味着一个经济周期的拐点），这时，美国试图由敞开转向去全球化、强制中心化时，便有了一丝强弩之末的味道。</span></p><p><span>硬币的一面是，Trump挥起了大棒，演绎强人政治的一场大戏，硬币的另一面是，诸神的黄昏时刻或许正在渐次降临。</span></p><p><span>这亦是周期，每一个世纪都有一个全球中心的切换，意大利，荷兰，英国，美国，等等。这个世界，它是生物性的，它遵循了生态系统的演变规律，当一种生物强大到这个生态系统无法承受的时候，那么，它就走到了一个瓶颈时刻，它当然想要挣脱，然而，这个世界并没有什么胜天半子。</span></p><p><b><span>风会熄灭蜡烛，却能使火越烧越旺。</span></b></p><p><span>事实上，即便是2008年美国次贷危机那大萧条以来最为严重的金融危机，都没有将中国拖入长期衰退的境地，这个超级庞然大物具有相当的反脆弱性。问题的重点在于，中国经济结构调整的压力巨大，而周期内部结构的演进与变化，对于经济增长和A股证券市场投资而言，更为重要，因为这是寻找未来机会的方向和线索。</span></p><p><b><span>最终，只有更好地理解了这个世界，理解了整个宏观现实的背景脉络，才能更好地理解A股证券市场。</span></b></p><p><span>功夫在诗外，很多时候，你以为是你的投资胜利了，其实是你的世界观胜利了，若是真的想在此生中取得投资的胜利（偶尔的胜利，不值一提），那么，必须在世界观上下功夫。</span></p><p><span>当你被投资世界的热风裹挟之时，不妨安静下来，想一想，毕竟，我们已经经历了一个核心资产扩张的结构性牛市，以及一个科技股疯狂的结构性牛市。</span></p><p><span>当你被投资世界的恐慌裹挟之时，不妨安静下来，想一想，毕竟，无风险利率下行在那儿，资产荒在那儿，房住不炒在那儿，以及范式转换的未完成。</span></p><p><span>在投资世界，最重要的不是预期收益率，而是风险。这个风险在梧桐的语境里，就是无常，只是不同的名相。</span><span><b>风险（无常）本身具有遍历性，有些风险（无常）恰恰是我们必须承受的。</b></span><span>这其中，关键因素在于风险是否合理定价，风险到底有没有补偿，补偿是否充分，事实上，在梧桐的视野里，空头陷阱之中的A股证券市场，风险补偿正在变得越来越友好。重要的是，在知止与进击之间，在填充与留白之中，保持合宜的平衡。</span></p><p><span>码到这里的时候，梧桐不禁又一次想起杰克·凯鲁亚克在《在路上》一书中写到的，</span><span><b>世界旅行不像它看上去的那么美好，只是在你从所有炎热和狼狈中归来之后，你忘记了所受的折磨，回忆着遇见的不可思议的景色，它才是美好的。</b></span></p>","source":"lsy1572231153591","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A股 VS 美股，可能的历史大背离</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA股 VS 美股，可能的历史大背离\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-10 08:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/354382><strong>投觉</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：梧桐 投觉昨天，全球权益资产价格的黑色星期一。美股开盘4分钟，标普500指数暴跌-7%，触发了第一层熔断机制，暂停交易15分钟，截至收盘，道指下跌-7.79%，标普500指数下跌-7.60%，创2008年12月以来最大单日跌幅，纳指下跌-7.29%。不仅如此，WTI 4月原油期货下跌-24.59%，报31.13美元/桶，创1991年以来最大单日跌幅，而最具避险属性的黄金，由于高企的价格，削弱...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/354382\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3108c3b848b979a79a1bef92bbef7e60","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/354382","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2018511484","content_text":"作者：梧桐 投觉昨天，全球权益资产价格的黑色星期一。美股开盘4分钟，标普500指数暴跌-7%，触发了第一层熔断机制，暂停交易15分钟，截至收盘，道指下跌-7.79%，标普500指数下跌-7.60%，创2008年12月以来最大单日跌幅，纳指下跌-7.29%。不仅如此，WTI 4月原油期货下跌-24.59%，报31.13美元/桶，创1991年以来最大单日跌幅，而最具避险属性的黄金，由于高企的价格，削弱了其本身在这场金融混乱之中了避险价值。尽管我们还很难将之定义为一场金融危机，但是，它的确已经从一场金融混乱走向金融危机的边缘，一是蝴蝶效应，二是宏观分形，三是在可见视野里，尚且看不到打破宏观现实、投资者预期与交易三者之间反身性的曙光。历史不会简单重复，然而，其脚步却总是踏着相似的黑白琴键。2008年美国次贷危机的主要来源就是，超级脆弱推手艾伦·格林斯潘（回顾历史，他无疑是最高级别的创伤源了）旨在消除“经济繁荣与衰退的周期”的各项举措，导致所有风险藏于地下且不断积聚，最终摧毁了经济，引发了“医源性损伤”。这些旨在消除经济周期的努力，是所有脆弱性的根源。在此全球共振的Risk Off的背景脉络中，A股证券市场可能正在经历一个空头陷阱，昨天（20200309），万得全A下跌-3.57%，尽管如此，就单个交易日而言，我们仍然可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益，就2020年以来（截至20200306）而言，我们同样可以看到A股资产在全球风险资产中的相对收益。因此，尽管A股证券市场也会在全球金融市场一片混乱的裹挟中大幅回落，但是，梧桐对于A股证券市场并不悲观。在梧桐的视野里，美国去全球化中的脆弱，中国去全球化中的反脆弱；美国应对危机的组织能力中性，中国应对危机的组织能力星球第一；美国货币政策的空间逼仄，中国货币政策的游刃有余；美国是经济政治学，中国是政治经济学；美股相对高位，A股相对低位；美股不乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯，A股缺乏可以获利的做空机制和投资习惯。若是对于这些有着清晰明见，那么，我们就可能在2020年遇见这个历史转身中的A股、美股的大背离。这个大背离的意思是说，A股收益率向上趋势，美股收益率向下趋势。A股证券市场还比较年轻，至今不过三十年，上一次A股、美股的大背离发生在2000年，那个时候，Cold war结束不到十年，中国尚未加入WTO，对于中国来说，世界还不是平的，全球化还在启程和展开之中。二十年后，全球化已经开始走向去全球化，历史已经开始转身，中美已经开始对峙，世界已经不是平的，A股、美股是否走向历史的大背离，答案留给未来历史，只是，它的确具有宏观的现实可能性。如今，当美国走到一个创新周期的拐点（创新周期的拐点往往意味着一个经济周期的拐点），这时，美国试图由敞开转向去全球化、强制中心化时，便有了一丝强弩之末的味道。硬币的一面是，Trump挥起了大棒，演绎强人政治的一场大戏，硬币的另一面是，诸神的黄昏时刻或许正在渐次降临。这亦是周期，每一个世纪都有一个全球中心的切换，意大利，荷兰，英国，美国，等等。这个世界，它是生物性的，它遵循了生态系统的演变规律，当一种生物强大到这个生态系统无法承受的时候，那么，它就走到了一个瓶颈时刻，它当然想要挣脱，然而，这个世界并没有什么胜天半子。风会熄灭蜡烛，却能使火越烧越旺。事实上，即便是2008年美国次贷危机那大萧条以来最为严重的金融危机，都没有将中国拖入长期衰退的境地，这个超级庞然大物具有相当的反脆弱性。问题的重点在于，中国经济结构调整的压力巨大，而周期内部结构的演进与变化，对于经济增长和A股证券市场投资而言，更为重要，因为这是寻找未来机会的方向和线索。最终，只有更好地理解了这个世界，理解了整个宏观现实的背景脉络，才能更好地理解A股证券市场。功夫在诗外，很多时候，你以为是你的投资胜利了，其实是你的世界观胜利了，若是真的想在此生中取得投资的胜利（偶尔的胜利，不值一提），那么，必须在世界观上下功夫。当你被投资世界的热风裹挟之时，不妨安静下来，想一想，毕竟，我们已经经历了一个核心资产扩张的结构性牛市，以及一个科技股疯狂的结构性牛市。当你被投资世界的恐慌裹挟之时，不妨安静下来，想一想，毕竟，无风险利率下行在那儿，资产荒在那儿，房住不炒在那儿，以及范式转换的未完成。在投资世界，最重要的不是预期收益率，而是风险。这个风险在梧桐的语境里，就是无常，只是不同的名相。风险（无常）本身具有遍历性，有些风险（无常）恰恰是我们必须承受的。这其中，关键因素在于风险是否合理定价，风险到底有没有补偿，补偿是否充分，事实上，在梧桐的视野里，空头陷阱之中的A股证券市场，风险补偿正在变得越来越友好。重要的是，在知止与进击之间，在填充与留白之中，保持合宜的平衡。码到这里的时候，梧桐不禁又一次想起杰克·凯鲁亚克在《在路上》一书中写到的，世界旅行不像它看上去的那么美好，只是在你从所有炎热和狼狈中归来之后，你忘记了所受的折磨，回忆着遇见的不可思议的景色，它才是美好的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991698621,"gmtCreate":1564709724063,"gmtModify":1704707680733,"author":{"id":"3497436807661231","authorId":"3497436807661231","name":"frazer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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