mydlin的个人主页 - 老虎社区

mydlin

mydlin

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0勋章

2022-04-11

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$深井冰

2022-04-06

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$小熊玩意

2022-01-22

老百姓老百姓，老乡不要跑

盘前观察：美联储做错了什么以及市场为何要跌

2021-12-17

$Longeveron Inc(LGVN)$😭

2021-12-16

还能参与圣诞节活动，不错的

2021-12-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$滴滴退市说明了一切，中丐彻底到头了，该想想后路了

2021-12-03

$老虎证券(TIGR)$好开心啊，真的，套在这里感觉也不错，能躺平歇歇了

2021-11-30

$老虎证券(TIGR)$唉

2021-11-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$今年买什么都跌[笑哭] [笑哭]

2021-10-28

$老虎证券(TIGR)$阿呸

2021-10-27

$老虎证券(TIGR)$最后的希望了

2021-09-29

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$真悲哀

2021-09-10

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$又拉垮了，一天天的

2021-09-09

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$没完没了，真是没底线

2021-09-02

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$牛啊

2021-05-18

$康斯托克住宅建筑(CHCI)$卖

2021-04-29

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$真🐶，买谁谁增发，💩

2021-04-29

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$靠什么鬼

2021-04-28

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$啥也不是

2021-04-27

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$加油，别输给cciv

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Inc.(SNDL)$</a>小熊玩意","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$小熊玩意","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619665955","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630639211,"gmtCreate":1642808652479,"gmtModify":1642808652479,"author":{"id":"3496698845341043","authorId":"3496698845341043","name":"mydlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4868c9d271de80c98ae64436ca7b44c5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496698845341043","authorIdStr":"3496698845341043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老百姓老百姓，老乡不要跑","listText":"老百姓老百姓，老乡不要跑","text":"老百姓老百姓，老乡不要跑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630639211","repostId":"1180700708","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180700708","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1642772740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180700708?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-21 21:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前观察：美联储做错了什么以及市场为何要跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180700708","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"美股新年开始创下了2008年以来最差开局，13个交易日中9个交易日都在下跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美股盘前下跌，比特币跌到$38,000，奈飞盘前跌19%。</p><p><b>美联储做错了什么以及市场为何要跌</b></p><p>美股新年开始创下了2008年以来最差开局，13个交易日中9个交易日都在下跌。美股这种开局自然就迎合了很多看熊的人的想法，“多年美股牛市到头”这种说法瞬间甚嚣尘上。</p><p>做二级市场首先要敬畏市场，承认自己无知。当人身处某个时间点，其实很难知道自己究竟是深处牛市还是深处熊市，究竟是站在底谷还是站在高峰。这也是我说那些动不动就“新年展望”或者预测“6个月后市场会有一波行情”的说法，都是瞎扯。</p><p>最近美国很多人都在批评美联储，一个比较流行的说法，就是认为美联储货币政策收紧得太晚了。我个人非常反感这种说法，搞得好像大家去当美联储主席，都会比鲍威尔干得好一样。就算美联储提前半年停止量化宽松，就能阻止美国人民年底大手大脚花钱吗？老百姓的钱是美联储发出来的吗？老百姓的补助，那是老百姓选出的代表决定（国会）的。</p><p>再想深一点，就会发现，美国多年追求的政治目标——提高老百姓收入，其实是没有任何意义的，这次给老百姓发钱就是最好的证明。老百姓有钱了就乱花，然后造成港口拥挤供应链混乱，最后的结果就是东西涨价，老百姓得到的正面影响被缩小。所以，社会发展到今天，首要问题根本不是怎么去做大蛋糕，而是怎么去分配蛋糕。人类社会发展了几千年，蛋糕不知道大了几千几万倍，但为何依然社会问题还是存在？单纯追求做大蛋糕没有意义。也别误会我，我没有说不做大蛋糕，我说的是分配比做大更重要。</p><p>有点扯远了，回到美联储的问题。</p><p>美联储的问题在于它对待升息和降息的态度一样。美联储降息，需要和市场和社会充分沟通，告诉社会美联储将输送流动性。因为降息的时候是经济困难的时候，只有美联储充分沟通，才能打消社会的疑虑，让社会的信贷条件依然宽松。但是升息需要美联储充分沟通吗？升息，是因为社会遇到了通货膨胀，美联储跑出来天天说要收紧货币（还没行动），能够让物价下来吗？</p><p>降息，你可以天天喊；升息，你应该悄悄做。</p><p>这一轮美股下调，就是在于1月5日的美联储纪要出来。这一天的10年利率和市场，在美联储纪要出来之后，反向了（下图，蓝线10年利率，红线标普500）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a79175352e13477a06a433eb4d9c95f\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这两根线在正常的市场条件下，应该同涨跌。如果利率上涨而股市下跌，那么证明出现了“股债双杀”的局面，一般这种情况不应该持续太久，这种现象说明市场是拼命避险，只要现金。从最近两天来看，市场的两根线基本上恢复到了通涨跌，只是因为利率前几天涨太快，所以这几天回调一下，把市场也拉下来了。</p><p>我不知道市场什么时候是个底，但是我不觉得现在的困难，比2020年3月的史诗级暴跌严重。至于说金融危机到来的人，我就想问，每次金融危机都是因为钱不够发生的，这次各个渠道都充满了货币，金融危机怎么发生呢？</p><p><b>公司新闻</b></p><p><b>IBM(IBM)：彭博：IBM即将与Francisco Partners达成出售沃森健康的交易。 </b></p><p><b>通用汽车(GM)：电动SUV凯迪拉克Lyriq已组装完成，预计未来几个月交付客户。</b>此前有消息称，通用汽车考虑在密歇根州的两家工厂投资逾$40亿，以提高其电动车产能。<b> </b></p><p><b>英特尔(INTC)：宣布投资$200亿在俄亥俄州建造两所芯片工厂。</b>预计将于 2022年底开始建设，预计 2025年投产。<b> </b></p><p><b>力拓(RIO)：塞尔维亚宣布全面停止力拓锂项目并撤销其勘探许可证。 </b></p><p><b>摩根大通(JPM)：将CEO戴蒙的2021年年薪提高10%至$3,450万。 </b></p><p><b>Peloton(PTON)：针对CNBC报道，CEO表示正考虑可行性选项，包括裁员和限制生产等。</b>该公司表示CNBC关于其内部文件的报道不完整，不反映公司完整战略，并已确定泄密者，正采取适当法律行动。<b> </b></p><p><b>Meta(FB)&amp; Twitter(TWTR)：拟开发NFT相关功能。</b>据报道，Meta拟制定计划，允许用户创建和推广NFT；Twitter拟推出NFT头像功能。<b> </b></p><p><b>华纳音乐(WMG)：签约元宇宙项目，将打造基于NFT的虚拟偶像。</b>该项目名为“时尚守护者”(Guardians of Fashion，GOF)，将为二次元虚拟人物铸造6,888个NFT。这些代币将使用以太坊区块链。<b> </b></p><p><b>微软(MSFT)：游戏订阅服务Xbox Game Pass获得了超过2,500万名用户。</b>相较去年同期，用户数量增加700万。<b> </b></p><p><b>新东方(EDU)：预期中期亏损净额约$8亿到$9亿。</b>此预期亏损主要由于K-9学科类培训服务的终止对报告期间的总营收产生重大不利影响，及由此所产生的大量额外成本。<b> </b></p><p><b>腾讯音乐(TME)：对QQ音乐业务线和腾讯音乐基础架构进行调整，并晋升任命管理人员。</b></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前观察：美联储做错了什么以及市场为何要跌</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前观察：美联储做错了什么以及市场为何要跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-21 21:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美股盘前下跌，比特币跌到$38,000，奈飞盘前跌19%。</p><p><b>美联储做错了什么以及市场为何要跌</b></p><p>美股新年开始创下了2008年以来最差开局，13个交易日中9个交易日都在下跌。美股这种开局自然就迎合了很多看熊的人的想法，“多年美股牛市到头”这种说法瞬间甚嚣尘上。</p><p>做二级市场首先要敬畏市场，承认自己无知。当人身处某个时间点，其实很难知道自己究竟是深处牛市还是深处熊市，究竟是站在底谷还是站在高峰。这也是我说那些动不动就“新年展望”或者预测“6个月后市场会有一波行情”的说法，都是瞎扯。</p><p>最近美国很多人都在批评美联储，一个比较流行的说法，就是认为美联储货币政策收紧得太晚了。我个人非常反感这种说法，搞得好像大家去当美联储主席，都会比鲍威尔干得好一样。就算美联储提前半年停止量化宽松，就能阻止美国人民年底大手大脚花钱吗？老百姓的钱是美联储发出来的吗？老百姓的补助，那是老百姓选出的代表决定（国会）的。</p><p>再想深一点，就会发现，美国多年追求的政治目标——提高老百姓收入，其实是没有任何意义的，这次给老百姓发钱就是最好的证明。老百姓有钱了就乱花，然后造成港口拥挤供应链混乱，最后的结果就是东西涨价，老百姓得到的正面影响被缩小。所以，社会发展到今天，首要问题根本不是怎么去做大蛋糕，而是怎么去分配蛋糕。人类社会发展了几千年，蛋糕不知道大了几千几万倍，但为何依然社会问题还是存在？单纯追求做大蛋糕没有意义。也别误会我，我没有说不做大蛋糕，我说的是分配比做大更重要。</p><p>有点扯远了，回到美联储的问题。</p><p>美联储的问题在于它对待升息和降息的态度一样。美联储降息，需要和市场和社会充分沟通，告诉社会美联储将输送流动性。因为降息的时候是经济困难的时候，只有美联储充分沟通，才能打消社会的疑虑，让社会的信贷条件依然宽松。但是升息需要美联储充分沟通吗？升息，是因为社会遇到了通货膨胀，美联储跑出来天天说要收紧货币（还没行动），能够让物价下来吗？</p><p>降息，你可以天天喊；升息，你应该悄悄做。</p><p>这一轮美股下调，就是在于1月5日的美联储纪要出来。这一天的10年利率和市场，在美联储纪要出来之后，反向了（下图，蓝线10年利率，红线标普500）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a79175352e13477a06a433eb4d9c95f\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"277\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这两根线在正常的市场条件下，应该同涨跌。如果利率上涨而股市下跌，那么证明出现了“股债双杀”的局面，一般这种情况不应该持续太久，这种现象说明市场是拼命避险，只要现金。从最近两天来看，市场的两根线基本上恢复到了通涨跌，只是因为利率前几天涨太快，所以这几天回调一下，把市场也拉下来了。</p><p>我不知道市场什么时候是个底，但是我不觉得现在的困难，比2020年3月的史诗级暴跌严重。至于说金融危机到来的人，我就想问，每次金融危机都是因为钱不够发生的，这次各个渠道都充满了货币，金融危机怎么发生呢？</p><p><b>公司新闻</b></p><p><b>IBM(IBM)：彭博：IBM即将与Francisco Partners达成出售沃森健康的交易。 </b></p><p><b>通用汽车(GM)：电动SUV凯迪拉克Lyriq已组装完成，预计未来几个月交付客户。</b>此前有消息称，通用汽车考虑在密歇根州的两家工厂投资逾$40亿，以提高其电动车产能。<b> </b></p><p><b>英特尔(INTC)：宣布投资$200亿在俄亥俄州建造两所芯片工厂。</b>预计将于 2022年底开始建设，预计 2025年投产。<b> </b></p><p><b>力拓(RIO)：塞尔维亚宣布全面停止力拓锂项目并撤销其勘探许可证。 </b></p><p><b>摩根大通(JPM)：将CEO戴蒙的2021年年薪提高10%至$3,450万。 </b></p><p><b>Peloton(PTON)：针对CNBC报道，CEO表示正考虑可行性选项，包括裁员和限制生产等。</b>该公司表示CNBC关于其内部文件的报道不完整，不反映公司完整战略，并已确定泄密者，正采取适当法律行动。<b> </b></p><p><b>Meta(FB)&amp; Twitter(TWTR)：拟开发NFT相关功能。</b>据报道，Meta拟制定计划，允许用户创建和推广NFT；Twitter拟推出NFT头像功能。<b> </b></p><p><b>华纳音乐(WMG)：签约元宇宙项目，将打造基于NFT的虚拟偶像。</b>该项目名为“时尚守护者”(Guardians of Fashion，GOF)，将为二次元虚拟人物铸造6,888个NFT。这些代币将使用以太坊区块链。<b> </b></p><p><b>微软(MSFT)：游戏订阅服务Xbox Game Pass获得了超过2,500万名用户。</b>相较去年同期，用户数量增加700万。<b> </b></p><p><b>新东方(EDU)：预期中期亏损净额约$8亿到$9亿。</b>此预期亏损主要由于K-9学科类培训服务的终止对报告期间的总营收产生重大不利影响，及由此所产生的大量额外成本。<b> </b></p><p><b>腾讯音乐(TME)：对QQ音乐业务线和腾讯音乐基础架构进行调整，并晋升任命管理人员。</b></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180700708","content_text":"美股盘前下跌，比特币跌到$38,000，奈飞盘前跌19%。美联储做错了什么以及市场为何要跌美股新年开始创下了2008年以来最差开局，13个交易日中9个交易日都在下跌。美股这种开局自然就迎合了很多看熊的人的想法，“多年美股牛市到头”这种说法瞬间甚嚣尘上。做二级市场首先要敬畏市场，承认自己无知。当人身处某个时间点，其实很难知道自己究竟是深处牛市还是深处熊市，究竟是站在底谷还是站在高峰。这也是我说那些动不动就“新年展望”或者预测“6个月后市场会有一波行情”的说法，都是瞎扯。最近美国很多人都在批评美联储，一个比较流行的说法，就是认为美联储货币政策收紧得太晚了。我个人非常反感这种说法，搞得好像大家去当美联储主席，都会比鲍威尔干得好一样。就算美联储提前半年停止量化宽松，就能阻止美国人民年底大手大脚花钱吗？老百姓的钱是美联储发出来的吗？老百姓的补助，那是老百姓选出的代表决定（国会）的。再想深一点，就会发现，美国多年追求的政治目标——提高老百姓收入，其实是没有任何意义的，这次给老百姓发钱就是最好的证明。老百姓有钱了就乱花，然后造成港口拥挤供应链混乱，最后的结果就是东西涨价，老百姓得到的正面影响被缩小。所以，社会发展到今天，首要问题根本不是怎么去做大蛋糕，而是怎么去分配蛋糕。人类社会发展了几千年，蛋糕不知道大了几千几万倍，但为何依然社会问题还是存在？单纯追求做大蛋糕没有意义。也别误会我，我没有说不做大蛋糕，我说的是分配比做大更重要。有点扯远了，回到美联储的问题。美联储的问题在于它对待升息和降息的态度一样。美联储降息，需要和市场和社会充分沟通，告诉社会美联储将输送流动性。因为降息的时候是经济困难的时候，只有美联储充分沟通，才能打消社会的疑虑，让社会的信贷条件依然宽松。但是升息需要美联储充分沟通吗？升息，是因为社会遇到了通货膨胀，美联储跑出来天天说要收紧货币（还没行动），能够让物价下来吗？降息，你可以天天喊；升息，你应该悄悄做。这一轮美股下调，就是在于1月5日的美联储纪要出来。这一天的10年利率和市场，在美联储纪要出来之后，反向了（下图，蓝线10年利率，红线标普500）。这两根线在正常的市场条件下，应该同涨跌。如果利率上涨而股市下跌，那么证明出现了“股债双杀”的局面，一般这种情况不应该持续太久，这种现象说明市场是拼命避险，只要现金。从最近两天来看，市场的两根线基本上恢复到了通涨跌，只是因为利率前几天涨太快，所以这几天回调一下，把市场也拉下来了。我不知道市场什么时候是个底，但是我不觉得现在的困难，比2020年3月的史诗级暴跌严重。至于说金融危机到来的人，我就想问，每次金融危机都是因为钱不够发生的，这次各个渠道都充满了货币，金融危机怎么发生呢？公司新闻IBM(IBM)：彭博：IBM即将与Francisco Partners达成出售沃森健康的交易。 通用汽车(GM)：电动SUV凯迪拉克Lyriq已组装完成，预计未来几个月交付客户。此前有消息称，通用汽车考虑在密歇根州的两家工厂投资逾$40亿，以提高其电动车产能。 英特尔(INTC)：宣布投资$200亿在俄亥俄州建造两所芯片工厂。预计将于 2022年底开始建设，预计 2025年投产。 力拓(RIO)：塞尔维亚宣布全面停止力拓锂项目并撤销其勘探许可证。 摩根大通(JPM)：将CEO戴蒙的2021年年薪提高10%至$3,450万。 Peloton(PTON)：针对CNBC报道，CEO表示正考虑可行性选项，包括裁员和限制生产等。该公司表示CNBC关于其内部文件的报道不完整，不反映公司完整战略，并已确定泄密者，正采取适当法律行动。 Meta(FB)& Twitter(TWTR)：拟开发NFT相关功能。据报道，Meta拟制定计划，允许用户创建和推广NFT；Twitter拟推出NFT头像功能。 华纳音乐(WMG)：签约元宇宙项目，将打造基于NFT的虚拟偶像。该项目名为“时尚守护者”(Guardians of Fashion，GOF)，将为二次元虚拟人物铸造6,888个NFT。这些代币将使用以太坊区块链。 微软(MSFT)：游戏订阅服务Xbox Game Pass获得了超过2,500万名用户。相较去年同期，用户数量增加700万。 新东方(EDU)：预期中期亏损净额约$8亿到$9亿。此预期亏损主要由于K-9学科类培训服务的终止对报告期间的总营收产生重大不利影响，及由此所产生的大量额外成本。 腾讯音乐(TME)：对QQ音乐业务线和腾讯音乐基础架构进行调整，并晋升任命管理人员。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699930733,"gmtCreate":1639732966606,"gmtModify":1639732966606,"author":{"id":"3496698845341043","authorId":"3496698845341043","name":"mydlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4868c9d271de80c98ae64436ca7b44c5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3496698845341043","authorIdStr":"3496698845341043"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LGVN\">$Longeveron Inc(LGVN)$</a>😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LGVN\">$Longeveron Inc(LGVN)$</a>😭","text":"$Longeveron 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