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11-26 21:59

$Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF(MSTX)$ 这个和mstu什么区别为啥跌的时候跌更多涨的时候涨得比mstu少$T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF(MSTU)$

11-27 22:36

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 5个点开就好偏要9点开空

11-14

$Riot Platforms(RIOT)$ 这票怎么这么差👎 $T-Rex MSTR(MSTZ)$$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ 和其他票没法比

11-12

‌$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ ‌有没有搞错。。。比特币大幅回调。。这就拉上去了？？？？这能脱离比特币单独走势？？？

11-19

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 7个点了可以开始收割了吧[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

11-12

‌$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ ‌这个和 T-REX 2X INV ETF(BATS:MSTZ)不对等啊。。。这个下跌， MSTZ应该是涨才对？？？这怎么这么割裂啊。。。完全莫名其妙

11-18

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ 这两个走势太假$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ 完全大背离

11-15

$T-Rex 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF(MSTZ)$ 这个成交量越来越大$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$

11-08

$亿航智能(EH)$ 这低空经济。。被小鹏干的$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$

11-21

‌$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ ‌先到227那个台阶

11-18

$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ 比特币还没涨。就提前开始去透支

11-16

‌$Greenidge Generation Holdings Inc.(GREE)$ ‌这个什么股。全是量化T。。。每天都波动振幅无敌。。。

11-15

$Greenidge Generation Holdings Inc.(GREE)$ 这个是干啥的人气这么低但是波动超级大

10-30

$阿特斯太阳能(CSIQ)$ 这票废$大全新能源(DQ)$ 都涨10个点了

11-27 22:49

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 开那么高没事找事，分高位下杀恰好死叉，

11-27 21:58

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 高开就低走。。。还不如开的不要那么高，8个点开太高了

11-27 20:27

mark

最火比特币概念股！这是关于MSTR最关键的十大问题

11-27 00:15

‌$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ ‌今天开盘都不拉不红，一分钟都没红过，这么弱，跌是应该的，稳都稳不住

11-21

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 著名金融评论员Peter Schiff在社交平台X上评论道，MicroStrategy股价和特币投资之间存在正向循环： “MSTR股价越高，CEO Michael Saylor可以卖出的股票就越多，他卖出的股票越多，他可以购买的比特币就越多，他买的比特币越多，比特币价格就越上涨，比特币价格上涨时，MSTR的股价就会上涨更多……什么时候才会结束？” 回看Semler Scientific乏善可陈的主营业务，或许他们也想走上这条冒险的道路，但毋庸置疑，投资比特币风险很大，价格随时可能迅速涨跌，没有其他业务的支持，公司这波涨势很有可能只是“昙花一现”。

11-20

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 这神奇的左脚踩右脚真能上天 300买币股价400 卖1股票筹钱400 筹钱买币1.3 币涨500 股价800 800卖股筹钱800 800买币1 币涨800 股价1200 1200卖股1200 1200买币1.5 币涨1500 股价1800 1800卖股1800 1000万买币币涨到1000万股价4000万卖

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data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 5个点开就好 偏要9点开 空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 5个点开就好 偏要9点开 空","text":"$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 5个点开就好 偏要9点开 空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375550840746264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4193659435486612","authorId":"4193659435486612","name":"天灰灰420","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4193659435486612","authorIdStr":"4193659435486612"},"content":"比特币今天涨了多少不看是吧，能不涨？","text":"比特币今天涨了多少不看是吧，能不涨？","html":"比特币今天涨了多少不看是吧，能不涨？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375541552710016,"gmtCreate":1732715933744,"gmtModify":1732715935642,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$&nbsp;</a> 高开就低走。。。还不如开的不要那么高 ，8个点开太高了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$&nbsp;</a> 高开就低走。。。还不如开的不要那么高 ，8个点开太高了","text":"$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 高开就低走。。。还不如开的不要那么高 ，8个点开太高了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375541552710016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375518715551856,"gmtCreate":1732710427762,"gmtModify":1732710429426,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375518715551856","repostId":"2486391891","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2486391891","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1732693809,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2486391891?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-27 15:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"最火比特币概念股！这是关于MSTR最关键的十大问题","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2486391891","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"与香橼做空MSTR不同，伯恩斯坦将MSTR的评级定为“跑赢大盘（Outperform）”，目标价600美元/股，高出现价70%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“比特币狂热”下，比特币龙头公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>（MSTR）的股价还要再涨70%？</p><p>自从实施比特币战略以来，MSTR的股票价格上涨了大约33倍，而比特币的价格上涨了约7倍，MSTR为什么能引起投资者这么大的热情？11月26日，伯恩斯坦分析师Gautam Chhugani及其团队发布报告解答了关于MSTR的十个问题。</p><p><strong>比如，MSTR的杠杆策略面临哪些风险？如果比特币崩盘会发生什么？</strong></p><p>Chhugani团队表示，MSTR使用杠杆策略投资比特币，面临着高杠杆、债务到期、市场波动等风险，如果比特币崩盘，MSTR可能无法通过股市筹集足够的资金来偿还到期债务，也可能面临必须发行更多股票的情况，导致现有股东的股权被稀释。</p><p><strong>相比比特币ETF，为什么投资者应该选择MSTR股票？</strong></p><p>Chhugani团队认为，购买比特币ETF只是被动地持有比特币，而MSTR使用积极的杠杆策略来建立比特币储备，因此，持有MSTR股票就像持有主动管理的比特币杠杆敞口。</p><p>因此，与香橼做空MSTR不同，<strong>伯恩斯坦将MSTR的评级定为“跑赢大盘（Outperform）”，目标价600美元/股，高出现价70%。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e466a11fec7bcb9ec23f230b90afd85\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1347638960\">1. 可以简单概括MSTR的运营模式吗？</h2><p>2020年8月，MSTR的现金储备超过了2.5亿美元，公司首次决定将这些资金投入比特币。随着时间的推移，MSTR逐渐从仅仅使用现金盈余投资比特币，发展到通过资本市场筹集资金以收购更多比特币。</p><p>在过去四年中，MSTR总共收购了386700枚比特币，占比特币总供应量的1.83%，总花费为219亿美元，平均购买成本为56761美元/枚。</p><p><strong>这一收购计划主要由约73亿美元的可转换债务、约130亿美元的股本募集，以及公司内部积累的资金来完成。</strong></p><p><strong>目前，MSTR通过以下方式筹集资金：</strong></p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>ATM股权融资</strong>：通过指定的经纪商以现行市场价格，逐步将新发行的股票或他们已经拥有的股票出售到二级交易市场中。</p></li><li><p><strong>可转换债务</strong>：主要通过长期（5-7年期）的无担保可转换工具来进行融资。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2422706910\">2. MSTR的杠杆策略面临哪些风险？如果比特币崩盘会发生什么？</h2><p>MSTR倾向于发行长期（5-7年期）、无担保、无负担的可转换债务，行使价格通常比现有股价高出30%-50%。</p><p>伯恩斯坦表示，<strong>这种长期的转换债务的好处是，MSTR在短期内没有债务清偿压力，有足够的时间等待其“比特币战略”发挥作用。</strong>并且，由于可转换债务的行使价格存在溢价，能够避免立即稀释股东股份。</p><p>当可转换债务到期时，如果比特币价格上涨至行使价格，MSTR就必须发行股票，但由于行使价格较高，股东股份受到的稀释效应有限。相反，如果比特币价格低于行使价格，MSTR只需按较低的比特币价格来偿还债务，这相当于，MSTR偿还的比特币数量比最初用债务买来的要少。</p><p><strong>MSTR通常会保持一个相对保守的杠杆水平，约为比特币净资产的30%，并在需要时灵活调整股本和债务来保持杠杆比例合理</strong>，并抓住更多的筹资机会。比如，在2022年12月时，比特币价格暴跌到17000美元/枚，MSTR的杠杆比率飙升到1左右。为了降低杠杆，MSTR开始增加发行股票来筹集资金，继续购买比特币。反之，当比特币价格上涨，杠杆比率低于30%时，MSTR就会利用这个机会发行更多的可转换债务。</p><p>不过，MSTR的杠杆策略也面临着<strong>高杠杆、债务到期、市场波动等风险</strong>，如果比特币崩盘，MSTR可能无法通过股市筹集足够的资金来偿还到期债务，也可能面临必须发行更多股票的情况，导致现有股东的股权被稀释。</p><h2 id=\"id_3322145291\">3. Saylor所说的比特币收益率是什么意思？MSTR的比特币收益率是如何计算的？</h2><p>比特币收益率（Bitcoin yield）是MSTR创始人Michael Saylor创造的一个术语，<strong>用于描述“持有的比特币/稀释后的每股权益”的年增长率。</strong></p><p>MSTR的目标是每年都为股东提供更多的比特币，这一目标通过发行股本和债务来购买更多的比特币实现，购买更多比特币后，每股权益所对应的比特币数量就增加了。</p><p>例如，一位投资者在2020年12月成为MSTR的股东，持股对应0.6个比特币/每股稀释股，经过4年时间，MSTR通过发行更多股本和债务购买比特币，使得每股稀释股对应的比特币数量从0.6个增至1.5个。相当于过去4年中，“持有的比特币/稀释后的每股权益”的年复合增长率（CAGR）约为25%，这就是Saylor定义的比特币收益率，可以简单理解为每股比特币的年复合增长率。</p><p><strong>由于2024年比特币市场蓬勃发展，MSTR得以扩大其资本筹集计划，2024年的比特币收益率为59.3%。MSTR预计，未来3年将实现6%-10%的年复合增长率。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2901875188\">4. 如何计算MSTR相对于比特币资产净值的溢价？历史上的溢价是多少？</h2><p>伯恩斯坦计算了MSTR的企业价值（企业价值 = 市值 + 净债务），并从中剔除了软件业务的价值，剩余的企业价值可以归因于持有比特币——即比特币资产的市场价值加上溢价。</p><p>通过将MSTR持有的比特币隐含价值除以比特币资产的市场价值，伯恩斯坦得出了MSTR的溢价。</p><p>根据计算结果，MSTR的股价比其持有的比特币资产的市场价值高出约189%，而历史平均溢价为61%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2674887658\">5. 什么支撑了MSTR相对于净资产值（NAV）的溢价？</h2><p>伯恩斯坦认为，MSTR相对于其比特币净资产值的溢价来源于以下三点：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>杠杆式比特币投资使得每股稀释股本的比特币增值；</p></li><li><p>债务策略可扩展，因为利息费用低（约0.5%）、期限较长（5-7年），无比特币担保风险；</p></li><li><p>在上市公司中，能够大规模获取杠杆比特币投资的流动性股权工具有限。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p>伯恩斯坦还通过对MSTR未来比特币持有量的增长进行折现来得出今天的合理溢价。根据伯恩斯坦，基于2033年预测价格的折现值，考虑概率加权的情景，得出了<strong>MSTR拥有约75%的长期可持续溢价。</strong></p><p>以下是三种情形：</p><blockquote><p>1. 基础情景：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>MSTR将其比特币储备增长到约4%的比特币总供应量。</p></li><li><p>比特币继续经历四年价格周期，预测2025年的周期高点为20万美元，2029年为50万美元，2033年为100万美元，并有间歇性的1年熊市。</p></li><li><p>MSTR的债务适度增长，从目前的73亿美元达到420亿美元，股权融资收入预计达到约350亿美元。</p></li></ul><p>2. 牛市情景：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>MSTR将其比特币储备增长到约6%的比特币总供应量。</p></li><li><p>比特币继续经历四年价格周期，预测2025年的周期高点为20万美元，2029年为50万美元，2033年为100万美元，并有间歇性的1年熊市。</p></li><li><p>MSTR的债务迅速增长超过10倍，从目前的73亿美元达到800亿美元，股权融资收入预计达到约660亿美元。</p></li></ul><p>3. 熊市情景：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>MSTR的比特币储备停滞在2.5%。</p></li><li><p>比特币价格在2025年达到20万美元的高点，但随后进入长期熊市，影响MSTR扩展其比特币战略。</p></li><li><p>MSTR被迫出售其比特币储备，以偿还已到期或到期时价值低于执行价的可转换债券。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1963901068\">6. 谁在购买MSTR的可转换债务？MSTR的可转换债务表现如何？</h2><p>伯恩斯坦表示，债务本身没有下行风险，吸引了<strong>看好比特币上涨潜力的机构投资者</strong>，如长期资产管理公司和对冲基金，也吸引了专门从事可转换债务投资的投资组合经理，因为MSTR的可转换债务表现非常亮眼。</p><p><strong>今年迄今为止，MSTR的可转换债务实现了90%-221%的回报，相比之下，美国可转换债务指数的回报为15%。</strong></p><p>此外，可转换债务套利部门也通过持有MSTR可转换债务的多头头寸，并做空MSTR股票，来获取收益。</p><h2 id=\"id_2722296463\">7. MSTR什么时候会出售其比特币？MSTR的最终目标是什么？</h2><p>Saylor曾公开表示：<strong>“比特币是MicroStrategy的最终目标”。</strong></p><p>MSTR希望通过最大限度地利用可用的长期资本市场工具，以接近永久资本的方式持有其比特币仓位，长期无担保可转换债务就是一个例子。MSTR还暗示，<strong>公司正在探索长期优先股和固定收益市场作为下一步的资金来源。</strong></p><p>目前，比特币仅占全球金融资产池的0.2%，而MSTR认为，未来比特币将占据全球金融资产池的7%，到2045年每枚比特币的价值为1300万美元，这意味着，从现在起比特币的年复合增长率为29%——MSTR专注于比特币的这一长期目标。</p><h2 id=\"id_2631738518\">8. 其他公司是否在跟随MSTR的比特币战略？为什么大型科技公司无法复制比特币战略？</h2><p>近期，有一些公司在效仿MSTR实施比特币战略，如日股上市公司Metaplanet、美股上市公司Semler Scientific、MARA Holdings。这些公司使用内部资金，并积极筹集资本以购买比特币。</p><p>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>有多余现金且核心业务逐渐衰退的小型公司，可能会选择跟随MSTR的比特币战略。</strong></p><p><strong>至于Mag 7等大型科技公司，的确有大量的自由现金可以用于投资比特币，但这些公司的核心业务占据主导地位，投资比特币在其整体战略中可能微不足道</strong>，例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>拥有9亿美元的比特币，但显然，电动汽车等才是特斯拉的核心业务。此外，大型科技公司的核心业务需要不断增长的资本支出，这和投资比特币不相符。</p><h2 id=\"id_3646900174\">9. 什么是MSTR的“21/21计划”？对这一计划的预期是什么？</h2><p>10月30日，在公布三季报的同时，MSTR宣布了一项“21/21计划”，即<strong>在未来三年通过210亿美元的股权和210亿美元的债券筹集420亿美元，以购买更多的比特币。</strong></p><p>截至目前，MSTR已经筹集了超过80亿美元的股权，并在2024年第四季度筹集了30亿美元的可转换债务。鉴于比特币市场的蓬勃发展，<strong>伯恩斯坦预计，MSTR将在未来24个月内完成“21/21计划”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3329044743\">10. 相比比特币ETF，为什么投资者应该选择投资MSTR股票？</h2><p>MSTR在股权和长期可转换债务之间积极进行调整，使用杠杆效应投资比特币，于此同时，MSTR保持了相对保守的杠杆比例，约为比特币净资产的30%。</p><p>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>MSTR使用积极的杠杆策略来建立比特币储备，因此，持有MSTR股票就像持有主动管理的比特币杠杆敞口，而不是通过ETF被动地持有现货比特币。</strong></p><p>不过，MSTR的股价溢价有时会超出其基本面，使得MSTR的股价为现货比特币ETF的2-3倍，投资者在进行交易时应当了解MSTR的溢价。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n最火比特币概念股！这是关于MSTR最关键的十大问题\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-27 15:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3735349><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“比特币狂热”下，比特币龙头公司MicroStrategy（MSTR）的股价还要再涨70%？自从实施比特币战略以来，MSTR的股票价格上涨了大约33倍，而比特币的价格上涨了约7倍，MSTR为什么能引起投资者这么大的热情？11月26日，伯恩斯坦分析师Gautam Chhugani及其团队发布报告解答了关于MSTR的十个问题。比如，MSTR的杠杆策略面临哪些风险？如果比特币崩盘会发生什么？...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3735349\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42b5ef4450a295a03cfad9f2400ad6cc","relate_stocks":{"83042":"华夏比特币-R","09008":"博时比特币-U","MSTR":"MicroStrategy","03042":"华夏比特币","BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","09439":"嘉实比特币-U","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK1611":"加密货币现货ETF","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4596":"哈里斯概念","BK4023":"应用软件","03439":"嘉实比特币","09042":"华夏比特币-U","BK4595":"比特币概念","03008":"博时比特币","BK4600":"加密货币概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3735349","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2486391891","content_text":"“比特币狂热”下，比特币龙头公司MicroStrategy（MSTR）的股价还要再涨70%？自从实施比特币战略以来，MSTR的股票价格上涨了大约33倍，而比特币的价格上涨了约7倍，MSTR为什么能引起投资者这么大的热情？11月26日，伯恩斯坦分析师Gautam Chhugani及其团队发布报告解答了关于MSTR的十个问题。比如，MSTR的杠杆策略面临哪些风险？如果比特币崩盘会发生什么？Chhugani团队表示，MSTR使用杠杆策略投资比特币，面临着高杠杆、债务到期、市场波动等风险，如果比特币崩盘，MSTR可能无法通过股市筹集足够的资金来偿还到期债务，也可能面临必须发行更多股票的情况，导致现有股东的股权被稀释。相比比特币ETF，为什么投资者应该选择MSTR股票？Chhugani团队认为，购买比特币ETF只是被动地持有比特币，而MSTR使用积极的杠杆策略来建立比特币储备，因此，持有MSTR股票就像持有主动管理的比特币杠杆敞口。因此，与香橼做空MSTR不同，伯恩斯坦将MSTR的评级定为“跑赢大盘（Outperform）”，目标价600美元/股，高出现价70%。1. 可以简单概括MSTR的运营模式吗？2020年8月，MSTR的现金储备超过了2.5亿美元，公司首次决定将这些资金投入比特币。随着时间的推移，MSTR逐渐从仅仅使用现金盈余投资比特币，发展到通过资本市场筹集资金以收购更多比特币。在过去四年中，MSTR总共收购了386700枚比特币，占比特币总供应量的1.83%，总花费为219亿美元，平均购买成本为56761美元/枚。这一收购计划主要由约73亿美元的可转换债务、约130亿美元的股本募集，以及公司内部积累的资金来完成。目前，MSTR通过以下方式筹集资金：ATM股权融资：通过指定的经纪商以现行市场价格，逐步将新发行的股票或他们已经拥有的股票出售到二级交易市场中。可转换债务：主要通过长期（5-7年期）的无担保可转换工具来进行融资。2. MSTR的杠杆策略面临哪些风险？如果比特币崩盘会发生什么？MSTR倾向于发行长期（5-7年期）、无担保、无负担的可转换债务，行使价格通常比现有股价高出30%-50%。伯恩斯坦表示，这种长期的转换债务的好处是，MSTR在短期内没有债务清偿压力，有足够的时间等待其“比特币战略”发挥作用。并且，由于可转换债务的行使价格存在溢价，能够避免立即稀释股东股份。当可转换债务到期时，如果比特币价格上涨至行使价格，MSTR就必须发行股票，但由于行使价格较高，股东股份受到的稀释效应有限。相反，如果比特币价格低于行使价格，MSTR只需按较低的比特币价格来偿还债务，这相当于，MSTR偿还的比特币数量比最初用债务买来的要少。MSTR通常会保持一个相对保守的杠杆水平，约为比特币净资产的30%，并在需要时灵活调整股本和债务来保持杠杆比例合理，并抓住更多的筹资机会。比如，在2022年12月时，比特币价格暴跌到17000美元/枚，MSTR的杠杆比率飙升到1左右。为了降低杠杆，MSTR开始增加发行股票来筹集资金，继续购买比特币。反之，当比特币价格上涨，杠杆比率低于30%时，MSTR就会利用这个机会发行更多的可转换债务。不过，MSTR的杠杆策略也面临着高杠杆、债务到期、市场波动等风险，如果比特币崩盘，MSTR可能无法通过股市筹集足够的资金来偿还到期债务，也可能面临必须发行更多股票的情况，导致现有股东的股权被稀释。3. Saylor所说的比特币收益率是什么意思？MSTR的比特币收益率是如何计算的？比特币收益率（Bitcoin yield）是MSTR创始人Michael Saylor创造的一个术语，用于描述“持有的比特币/稀释后的每股权益”的年增长率。MSTR的目标是每年都为股东提供更多的比特币，这一目标通过发行股本和债务来购买更多的比特币实现，购买更多比特币后，每股权益所对应的比特币数量就增加了。例如，一位投资者在2020年12月成为MSTR的股东，持股对应0.6个比特币/每股稀释股，经过4年时间，MSTR通过发行更多股本和债务购买比特币，使得每股稀释股对应的比特币数量从0.6个增至1.5个。相当于过去4年中，“持有的比特币/稀释后的每股权益”的年复合增长率（CAGR）约为25%，这就是Saylor定义的比特币收益率，可以简单理解为每股比特币的年复合增长率。由于2024年比特币市场蓬勃发展，MSTR得以扩大其资本筹集计划，2024年的比特币收益率为59.3%。MSTR预计，未来3年将实现6%-10%的年复合增长率。4. 如何计算MSTR相对于比特币资产净值的溢价？历史上的溢价是多少？伯恩斯坦计算了MSTR的企业价值（企业价值 = 市值 + 净债务），并从中剔除了软件业务的价值，剩余的企业价值可以归因于持有比特币——即比特币资产的市场价值加上溢价。通过将MSTR持有的比特币隐含价值除以比特币资产的市场价值，伯恩斯坦得出了MSTR的溢价。根据计算结果，MSTR的股价比其持有的比特币资产的市场价值高出约189%，而历史平均溢价为61%。5. 什么支撑了MSTR相对于净资产值（NAV）的溢价？伯恩斯坦认为，MSTR相对于其比特币净资产值的溢价来源于以下三点：杠杆式比特币投资使得每股稀释股本的比特币增值；债务策略可扩展，因为利息费用低（约0.5%）、期限较长（5-7年），无比特币担保风险；在上市公司中，能够大规模获取杠杆比特币投资的流动性股权工具有限。伯恩斯坦还通过对MSTR未来比特币持有量的增长进行折现来得出今天的合理溢价。根据伯恩斯坦，基于2033年预测价格的折现值，考虑概率加权的情景，得出了MSTR拥有约75%的长期可持续溢价。以下是三种情形：1. 基础情景：MSTR将其比特币储备增长到约4%的比特币总供应量。比特币继续经历四年价格周期，预测2025年的周期高点为20万美元，2029年为50万美元，2033年为100万美元，并有间歇性的1年熊市。MSTR的债务适度增长，从目前的73亿美元达到420亿美元，股权融资收入预计达到约350亿美元。2. 牛市情景：MSTR将其比特币储备增长到约6%的比特币总供应量。比特币继续经历四年价格周期，预测2025年的周期高点为20万美元，2029年为50万美元，2033年为100万美元，并有间歇性的1年熊市。MSTR的债务迅速增长超过10倍，从目前的73亿美元达到800亿美元，股权融资收入预计达到约660亿美元。3. 熊市情景：MSTR的比特币储备停滞在2.5%。比特币价格在2025年达到20万美元的高点，但随后进入长期熊市，影响MSTR扩展其比特币战略。MSTR被迫出售其比特币储备，以偿还已到期或到期时价值低于执行价的可转换债券。6. 谁在购买MSTR的可转换债务？MSTR的可转换债务表现如何？伯恩斯坦表示，债务本身没有下行风险，吸引了看好比特币上涨潜力的机构投资者，如长期资产管理公司和对冲基金，也吸引了专门从事可转换债务投资的投资组合经理，因为MSTR的可转换债务表现非常亮眼。今年迄今为止，MSTR的可转换债务实现了90%-221%的回报，相比之下，美国可转换债务指数的回报为15%。此外，可转换债务套利部门也通过持有MSTR可转换债务的多头头寸，并做空MSTR股票，来获取收益。7. MSTR什么时候会出售其比特币？MSTR的最终目标是什么？Saylor曾公开表示：“比特币是MicroStrategy的最终目标”。MSTR希望通过最大限度地利用可用的长期资本市场工具，以接近永久资本的方式持有其比特币仓位，长期无担保可转换债务就是一个例子。MSTR还暗示，公司正在探索长期优先股和固定收益市场作为下一步的资金来源。目前，比特币仅占全球金融资产池的0.2%，而MSTR认为，未来比特币将占据全球金融资产池的7%，到2045年每枚比特币的价值为1300万美元，这意味着，从现在起比特币的年复合增长率为29%——MSTR专注于比特币的这一长期目标。8. 其他公司是否在跟随MSTR的比特币战略？为什么大型科技公司无法复制比特币战略？近期，有一些公司在效仿MSTR实施比特币战略，如日股上市公司Metaplanet、美股上市公司Semler Scientific、MARA Holdings。这些公司使用内部资金，并积极筹集资本以购买比特币。伯恩斯坦认为，有多余现金且核心业务逐渐衰退的小型公司，可能会选择跟随MSTR的比特币战略。至于Mag 7等大型科技公司，的确有大量的自由现金可以用于投资比特币，但这些公司的核心业务占据主导地位，投资比特币在其整体战略中可能微不足道，例如，特斯拉拥有9亿美元的比特币，但显然，电动汽车等才是特斯拉的核心业务。此外，大型科技公司的核心业务需要不断增长的资本支出，这和投资比特币不相符。9. 什么是MSTR的“21/21计划”？对这一计划的预期是什么？10月30日，在公布三季报的同时，MSTR宣布了一项“21/21计划”，即在未来三年通过210亿美元的股权和210亿美元的债券筹集420亿美元，以购买更多的比特币。截至目前，MSTR已经筹集了超过80亿美元的股权，并在2024年第四季度筹集了30亿美元的可转换债务。鉴于比特币市场的蓬勃发展，伯恩斯坦预计，MSTR将在未来24个月内完成“21/21计划”。10. 相比比特币ETF，为什么投资者应该选择投资MSTR股票？MSTR在股权和长期可转换债务之间积极进行调整，使用杠杆效应投资比特币，于此同时，MSTR保持了相对保守的杠杆比例，约为比特币净资产的30%。伯恩斯坦认为，MSTR使用积极的杠杆策略来建立比特币储备，因此，持有MSTR股票就像持有主动管理的比特币杠杆敞口，而不是通过ETF被动地持有现货比特币。不过，MSTR的股价溢价有时会超出其基本面，使得MSTR的股价为现货比特币ETF的2-3倍，投资者在进行交易时应当了解MSTR的溢价。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375332466974752,"gmtCreate":1732637759737,"gmtModify":1732637761937,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ &nbsp;</a>‌今天开盘都不拉不红，一分钟都没红过，这么弱，跌是应该的，稳都稳不住","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 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Scientific乏善可陈的主营业务，或许他们也想走上这条冒险的道路，但毋庸置疑，投资比特币风险很大，价格随时可能迅速涨跌，没有其他业务的支持，公司这波涨势很有可能只是“昙花一现”。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373363343601744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373043304534504,"gmtCreate":1732120637085,"gmtModify":1732120648528,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ &nbsp;</a>‌先到227那个台阶","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ &nbsp;</a>‌先到227那个台阶","text":"‌$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ ‌先到227那个台阶","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89aae368118dd5ab0d09d5e5cc9f4bd0","width":"200","height":"200"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373043304534504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373010589340088,"gmtCreate":1732112617920,"gmtModify":1732112654896,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$&nbsp;</a> 这神奇的左脚踩右脚 真能上天 300买币 股价400 卖1股票筹钱400 筹钱买币1.3 币涨500 股价800 800卖股筹钱800 800买币1 币涨800 股价1200 1200卖股1200 1200买币1.5 币涨1500 股价1800 1800卖股1800 1000万买币 币涨到1000万 股价4000万 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卖","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373010589340088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373072232820768,"gmtCreate":1732109982320,"gmtModify":1732109984301,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"左手踩右手 要上天","listText":"左手踩右手 要上天","text":"左手踩右手 要上天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373072232820768","repostId":"2484971996","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2484971996","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1732042402,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2484971996?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-20 02:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国更加紧密地拥抱加密货币，比特币再创历史新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2484971996","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"比特币周二再创历史新高，这得益于一系列最新事件凸显出，美国在加密货币“啦啦队员”唐纳德· 特朗普的带领下，更加紧密地拥抱数字资产行业。　　比特币周二一度飙升至93，625美元，突破了11月13日创下的前历史高点93，462美元。自特朗普11月5日赢得大选以来，该最大数字资产已上涨大约40%；特朗普的竞选纲领包括让美国成为世界加密货币之都。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>比特币周二再创历史新高，这得益于一系列最新事件凸显出，美国在加密货币“啦啦队员”唐纳德· 特朗普的带领下，更加紧密地拥抱数字资产行业。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4affd102820312a272ae679142d304ea\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\"/></p><p>其中最新的一件事是，特朗普的Trump Media &amp; Technology Group Corp．正在洽谈收购数字资产交易平台Bakkt Holdings Inc．的事宜。两公司的股价都应声飙升。</p><p>其他事件还包括，纳斯达克上市<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>安硕比特币信托ETF的期权，高盛集团试图分拆其数字资产平台，表明加密货币及其底层区块链技术正在深入金融体系。</p><p>比特币周二一度飙升至93，625美元，突破了11月13日创下的前历史高点93，462美元。自特朗普11月5日赢得大选以来，该最大数字资产已上涨大约40%；特朗普的竞选纲领包括让美国成为世界加密货币之都。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国更加紧密地拥抱加密货币，比特币再创历史新高</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-11-20/doc-incwrsta5819122.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962be253ee7459c393769e9105cb1429","relate_stocks":{"MSTR":"MicroStrategy","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","CLSK":"CleanSpark, Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-11-20/doc-incwrsta5819122.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2484971996","content_text":"比特币周二再创历史新高，这得益于一系列最新事件凸显出，美国在加密货币“啦啦队员”唐纳德· 特朗普的带领下，更加紧密地拥抱数字资产行业。其中最新的一件事是，特朗普的Trump Media & Technology Group Corp．正在洽谈收购数字资产交易平台Bakkt Holdings 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15:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"最火比特币概念股！这是关于MSTR最关键的十大问题","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2486391891","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"与香橼做空MSTR不同，伯恩斯坦将MSTR的评级定为“跑赢大盘（Outperform）”，目标价600美元/股，高出现价70%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“比特币狂热”下，比特币龙头公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>（MSTR）的股价还要再涨70%？</p><p>自从实施比特币战略以来，MSTR的股票价格上涨了大约33倍，而比特币的价格上涨了约7倍，MSTR为什么能引起投资者这么大的热情？11月26日，伯恩斯坦分析师Gautam Chhugani及其团队发布报告解答了关于MSTR的十个问题。</p><p><strong>比如，MSTR的杠杆策略面临哪些风险？如果比特币崩盘会发生什么？</strong></p><p>Chhugani团队表示，MSTR使用杠杆策略投资比特币，面临着高杠杆、债务到期、市场波动等风险，如果比特币崩盘，MSTR可能无法通过股市筹集足够的资金来偿还到期债务，也可能面临必须发行更多股票的情况，导致现有股东的股权被稀释。</p><p><strong>相比比特币ETF，为什么投资者应该选择MSTR股票？</strong></p><p>Chhugani团队认为，购买比特币ETF只是被动地持有比特币，而MSTR使用积极的杠杆策略来建立比特币储备，因此，持有MSTR股票就像持有主动管理的比特币杠杆敞口。</p><p>因此，与香橼做空MSTR不同，<strong>伯恩斯坦将MSTR的评级定为“跑赢大盘（Outperform）”，目标价600美元/股，高出现价70%。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e466a11fec7bcb9ec23f230b90afd85\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1347638960\">1. 可以简单概括MSTR的运营模式吗？</h2><p>2020年8月，MSTR的现金储备超过了2.5亿美元，公司首次决定将这些资金投入比特币。随着时间的推移，MSTR逐渐从仅仅使用现金盈余投资比特币，发展到通过资本市场筹集资金以收购更多比特币。</p><p>在过去四年中，MSTR总共收购了386700枚比特币，占比特币总供应量的1.83%，总花费为219亿美元，平均购买成本为56761美元/枚。</p><p><strong>这一收购计划主要由约73亿美元的可转换债务、约130亿美元的股本募集，以及公司内部积累的资金来完成。</strong></p><p><strong>目前，MSTR通过以下方式筹集资金：</strong></p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>ATM股权融资</strong>：通过指定的经纪商以现行市场价格，逐步将新发行的股票或他们已经拥有的股票出售到二级交易市场中。</p></li><li><p><strong>可转换债务</strong>：主要通过长期（5-7年期）的无担保可转换工具来进行融资。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2422706910\">2. MSTR的杠杆策略面临哪些风险？如果比特币崩盘会发生什么？</h2><p>MSTR倾向于发行长期（5-7年期）、无担保、无负担的可转换债务，行使价格通常比现有股价高出30%-50%。</p><p>伯恩斯坦表示，<strong>这种长期的转换债务的好处是，MSTR在短期内没有债务清偿压力，有足够的时间等待其“比特币战略”发挥作用。</strong>并且，由于可转换债务的行使价格存在溢价，能够避免立即稀释股东股份。</p><p>当可转换债务到期时，如果比特币价格上涨至行使价格，MSTR就必须发行股票，但由于行使价格较高，股东股份受到的稀释效应有限。相反，如果比特币价格低于行使价格，MSTR只需按较低的比特币价格来偿还债务，这相当于，MSTR偿还的比特币数量比最初用债务买来的要少。</p><p><strong>MSTR通常会保持一个相对保守的杠杆水平，约为比特币净资产的30%，并在需要时灵活调整股本和债务来保持杠杆比例合理</strong>，并抓住更多的筹资机会。比如，在2022年12月时，比特币价格暴跌到17000美元/枚，MSTR的杠杆比率飙升到1左右。为了降低杠杆，MSTR开始增加发行股票来筹集资金，继续购买比特币。反之，当比特币价格上涨，杠杆比率低于30%时，MSTR就会利用这个机会发行更多的可转换债务。</p><p>不过，MSTR的杠杆策略也面临着<strong>高杠杆、债务到期、市场波动等风险</strong>，如果比特币崩盘，MSTR可能无法通过股市筹集足够的资金来偿还到期债务，也可能面临必须发行更多股票的情况，导致现有股东的股权被稀释。</p><h2 id=\"id_3322145291\">3. Saylor所说的比特币收益率是什么意思？MSTR的比特币收益率是如何计算的？</h2><p>比特币收益率（Bitcoin yield）是MSTR创始人Michael Saylor创造的一个术语，<strong>用于描述“持有的比特币/稀释后的每股权益”的年增长率。</strong></p><p>MSTR的目标是每年都为股东提供更多的比特币，这一目标通过发行股本和债务来购买更多的比特币实现，购买更多比特币后，每股权益所对应的比特币数量就增加了。</p><p>例如，一位投资者在2020年12月成为MSTR的股东，持股对应0.6个比特币/每股稀释股，经过4年时间，MSTR通过发行更多股本和债务购买比特币，使得每股稀释股对应的比特币数量从0.6个增至1.5个。相当于过去4年中，“持有的比特币/稀释后的每股权益”的年复合增长率（CAGR）约为25%，这就是Saylor定义的比特币收益率，可以简单理解为每股比特币的年复合增长率。</p><p><strong>由于2024年比特币市场蓬勃发展，MSTR得以扩大其资本筹集计划，2024年的比特币收益率为59.3%。MSTR预计，未来3年将实现6%-10%的年复合增长率。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2901875188\">4. 如何计算MSTR相对于比特币资产净值的溢价？历史上的溢价是多少？</h2><p>伯恩斯坦计算了MSTR的企业价值（企业价值 = 市值 + 净债务），并从中剔除了软件业务的价值，剩余的企业价值可以归因于持有比特币——即比特币资产的市场价值加上溢价。</p><p>通过将MSTR持有的比特币隐含价值除以比特币资产的市场价值，伯恩斯坦得出了MSTR的溢价。</p><p>根据计算结果，MSTR的股价比其持有的比特币资产的市场价值高出约189%，而历史平均溢价为61%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2674887658\">5. 什么支撑了MSTR相对于净资产值（NAV）的溢价？</h2><p>伯恩斯坦认为，MSTR相对于其比特币净资产值的溢价来源于以下三点：</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p>杠杆式比特币投资使得每股稀释股本的比特币增值；</p></li><li><p>债务策略可扩展，因为利息费用低（约0.5%）、期限较长（5-7年），无比特币担保风险；</p></li><li><p>在上市公司中，能够大规模获取杠杆比特币投资的流动性股权工具有限。</p></li></ul></blockquote><p>伯恩斯坦还通过对MSTR未来比特币持有量的增长进行折现来得出今天的合理溢价。根据伯恩斯坦，基于2033年预测价格的折现值，考虑概率加权的情景，得出了<strong>MSTR拥有约75%的长期可持续溢价。</strong></p><p>以下是三种情形：</p><blockquote><p>1. 基础情景：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>MSTR将其比特币储备增长到约4%的比特币总供应量。</p></li><li><p>比特币继续经历四年价格周期，预测2025年的周期高点为20万美元，2029年为50万美元，2033年为100万美元，并有间歇性的1年熊市。</p></li><li><p>MSTR的债务适度增长，从目前的73亿美元达到420亿美元，股权融资收入预计达到约350亿美元。</p></li></ul><p>2. 牛市情景：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>MSTR将其比特币储备增长到约6%的比特币总供应量。</p></li><li><p>比特币继续经历四年价格周期，预测2025年的周期高点为20万美元，2029年为50万美元，2033年为100万美元，并有间歇性的1年熊市。</p></li><li><p>MSTR的债务迅速增长超过10倍，从目前的73亿美元达到800亿美元，股权融资收入预计达到约660亿美元。</p></li></ul><p>3. 熊市情景：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>MSTR的比特币储备停滞在2.5%。</p></li><li><p>比特币价格在2025年达到20万美元的高点，但随后进入长期熊市，影响MSTR扩展其比特币战略。</p></li><li><p>MSTR被迫出售其比特币储备，以偿还已到期或到期时价值低于执行价的可转换债券。</p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1963901068\">6. 谁在购买MSTR的可转换债务？MSTR的可转换债务表现如何？</h2><p>伯恩斯坦表示，债务本身没有下行风险，吸引了<strong>看好比特币上涨潜力的机构投资者</strong>，如长期资产管理公司和对冲基金，也吸引了专门从事可转换债务投资的投资组合经理，因为MSTR的可转换债务表现非常亮眼。</p><p><strong>今年迄今为止，MSTR的可转换债务实现了90%-221%的回报，相比之下，美国可转换债务指数的回报为15%。</strong></p><p>此外，可转换债务套利部门也通过持有MSTR可转换债务的多头头寸，并做空MSTR股票，来获取收益。</p><h2 id=\"id_2722296463\">7. MSTR什么时候会出售其比特币？MSTR的最终目标是什么？</h2><p>Saylor曾公开表示：<strong>“比特币是MicroStrategy的最终目标”。</strong></p><p>MSTR希望通过最大限度地利用可用的长期资本市场工具，以接近永久资本的方式持有其比特币仓位，长期无担保可转换债务就是一个例子。MSTR还暗示，<strong>公司正在探索长期优先股和固定收益市场作为下一步的资金来源。</strong></p><p>目前，比特币仅占全球金融资产池的0.2%，而MSTR认为，未来比特币将占据全球金融资产池的7%，到2045年每枚比特币的价值为1300万美元，这意味着，从现在起比特币的年复合增长率为29%——MSTR专注于比特币的这一长期目标。</p><h2 id=\"id_2631738518\">8. 其他公司是否在跟随MSTR的比特币战略？为什么大型科技公司无法复制比特币战略？</h2><p>近期，有一些公司在效仿MSTR实施比特币战略，如日股上市公司Metaplanet、美股上市公司Semler Scientific、MARA Holdings。这些公司使用内部资金，并积极筹集资本以购买比特币。</p><p>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>有多余现金且核心业务逐渐衰退的小型公司，可能会选择跟随MSTR的比特币战略。</strong></p><p><strong>至于Mag 7等大型科技公司，的确有大量的自由现金可以用于投资比特币，但这些公司的核心业务占据主导地位，投资比特币在其整体战略中可能微不足道</strong>，例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>拥有9亿美元的比特币，但显然，电动汽车等才是特斯拉的核心业务。此外，大型科技公司的核心业务需要不断增长的资本支出，这和投资比特币不相符。</p><h2 id=\"id_3646900174\">9. 什么是MSTR的“21/21计划”？对这一计划的预期是什么？</h2><p>10月30日，在公布三季报的同时，MSTR宣布了一项“21/21计划”，即<strong>在未来三年通过210亿美元的股权和210亿美元的债券筹集420亿美元，以购买更多的比特币。</strong></p><p>截至目前，MSTR已经筹集了超过80亿美元的股权，并在2024年第四季度筹集了30亿美元的可转换债务。鉴于比特币市场的蓬勃发展，<strong>伯恩斯坦预计，MSTR将在未来24个月内完成“21/21计划”。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_3329044743\">10. 相比比特币ETF，为什么投资者应该选择投资MSTR股票？</h2><p>MSTR在股权和长期可转换债务之间积极进行调整，使用杠杆效应投资比特币，于此同时，MSTR保持了相对保守的杠杆比例，约为比特币净资产的30%。</p><p>伯恩斯坦认为，<strong>MSTR使用积极的杠杆策略来建立比特币储备，因此，持有MSTR股票就像持有主动管理的比特币杠杆敞口，而不是通过ETF被动地持有现货比特币。</strong></p><p>不过，MSTR的股价溢价有时会超出其基本面，使得MSTR的股价为现货比特币ETF的2-3倍，投资者在进行交易时应当了解MSTR的溢价。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n最火比特币概念股！这是关于MSTR最关键的十大问题\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-27 15:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3735349><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“比特币狂热”下，比特币龙头公司MicroStrategy（MSTR）的股价还要再涨70%？自从实施比特币战略以来，MSTR的股票价格上涨了大约33倍，而比特币的价格上涨了约7倍，MSTR为什么能引起投资者这么大的热情？11月26日，伯恩斯坦分析师Gautam Chhugani及其团队发布报告解答了关于MSTR的十个问题。比如，MSTR的杠杆策略面临哪些风险？如果比特币崩盘会发生什么？...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3735349\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42b5ef4450a295a03cfad9f2400ad6cc","relate_stocks":{"83042":"华夏比特币-R","09008":"博时比特币-U","MSTR":"MicroStrategy","03042":"华夏比特币","BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","09439":"嘉实比特币-U","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK1611":"加密货币现货ETF","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4596":"哈里斯概念","BK4023":"应用软件","03439":"嘉实比特币","09042":"华夏比特币-U","BK4595":"比特币概念","03008":"博时比特币","BK4600":"加密货币概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3735349","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2486391891","content_text":"“比特币狂热”下，比特币龙头公司MicroStrategy（MSTR）的股价还要再涨70%？自从实施比特币战略以来，MSTR的股票价格上涨了大约33倍，而比特币的价格上涨了约7倍，MSTR为什么能引起投资者这么大的热情？11月26日，伯恩斯坦分析师Gautam Chhugani及其团队发布报告解答了关于MSTR的十个问题。比如，MSTR的杠杆策略面临哪些风险？如果比特币崩盘会发生什么？Chhugani团队表示，MSTR使用杠杆策略投资比特币，面临着高杠杆、债务到期、市场波动等风险，如果比特币崩盘，MSTR可能无法通过股市筹集足够的资金来偿还到期债务，也可能面临必须发行更多股票的情况，导致现有股东的股权被稀释。相比比特币ETF，为什么投资者应该选择MSTR股票？Chhugani团队认为，购买比特币ETF只是被动地持有比特币，而MSTR使用积极的杠杆策略来建立比特币储备，因此，持有MSTR股票就像持有主动管理的比特币杠杆敞口。因此，与香橼做空MSTR不同，伯恩斯坦将MSTR的评级定为“跑赢大盘（Outperform）”，目标价600美元/股，高出现价70%。1. 可以简单概括MSTR的运营模式吗？2020年8月，MSTR的现金储备超过了2.5亿美元，公司首次决定将这些资金投入比特币。随着时间的推移，MSTR逐渐从仅仅使用现金盈余投资比特币，发展到通过资本市场筹集资金以收购更多比特币。在过去四年中，MSTR总共收购了386700枚比特币，占比特币总供应量的1.83%，总花费为219亿美元，平均购买成本为56761美元/枚。这一收购计划主要由约73亿美元的可转换债务、约130亿美元的股本募集，以及公司内部积累的资金来完成。目前，MSTR通过以下方式筹集资金：ATM股权融资：通过指定的经纪商以现行市场价格，逐步将新发行的股票或他们已经拥有的股票出售到二级交易市场中。可转换债务：主要通过长期（5-7年期）的无担保可转换工具来进行融资。2. MSTR的杠杆策略面临哪些风险？如果比特币崩盘会发生什么？MSTR倾向于发行长期（5-7年期）、无担保、无负担的可转换债务，行使价格通常比现有股价高出30%-50%。伯恩斯坦表示，这种长期的转换债务的好处是，MSTR在短期内没有债务清偿压力，有足够的时间等待其“比特币战略”发挥作用。并且，由于可转换债务的行使价格存在溢价，能够避免立即稀释股东股份。当可转换债务到期时，如果比特币价格上涨至行使价格，MSTR就必须发行股票，但由于行使价格较高，股东股份受到的稀释效应有限。相反，如果比特币价格低于行使价格，MSTR只需按较低的比特币价格来偿还债务，这相当于，MSTR偿还的比特币数量比最初用债务买来的要少。MSTR通常会保持一个相对保守的杠杆水平，约为比特币净资产的30%，并在需要时灵活调整股本和债务来保持杠杆比例合理，并抓住更多的筹资机会。比如，在2022年12月时，比特币价格暴跌到17000美元/枚，MSTR的杠杆比率飙升到1左右。为了降低杠杆，MSTR开始增加发行股票来筹集资金，继续购买比特币。反之，当比特币价格上涨，杠杆比率低于30%时，MSTR就会利用这个机会发行更多的可转换债务。不过，MSTR的杠杆策略也面临着高杠杆、债务到期、市场波动等风险，如果比特币崩盘，MSTR可能无法通过股市筹集足够的资金来偿还到期债务，也可能面临必须发行更多股票的情况，导致现有股东的股权被稀释。3. Saylor所说的比特币收益率是什么意思？MSTR的比特币收益率是如何计算的？比特币收益率（Bitcoin yield）是MSTR创始人Michael Saylor创造的一个术语，用于描述“持有的比特币/稀释后的每股权益”的年增长率。MSTR的目标是每年都为股东提供更多的比特币，这一目标通过发行股本和债务来购买更多的比特币实现，购买更多比特币后，每股权益所对应的比特币数量就增加了。例如，一位投资者在2020年12月成为MSTR的股东，持股对应0.6个比特币/每股稀释股，经过4年时间，MSTR通过发行更多股本和债务购买比特币，使得每股稀释股对应的比特币数量从0.6个增至1.5个。相当于过去4年中，“持有的比特币/稀释后的每股权益”的年复合增长率（CAGR）约为25%，这就是Saylor定义的比特币收益率，可以简单理解为每股比特币的年复合增长率。由于2024年比特币市场蓬勃发展，MSTR得以扩大其资本筹集计划，2024年的比特币收益率为59.3%。MSTR预计，未来3年将实现6%-10%的年复合增长率。4. 如何计算MSTR相对于比特币资产净值的溢价？历史上的溢价是多少？伯恩斯坦计算了MSTR的企业价值（企业价值 = 市值 + 净债务），并从中剔除了软件业务的价值，剩余的企业价值可以归因于持有比特币——即比特币资产的市场价值加上溢价。通过将MSTR持有的比特币隐含价值除以比特币资产的市场价值，伯恩斯坦得出了MSTR的溢价。根据计算结果，MSTR的股价比其持有的比特币资产的市场价值高出约189%，而历史平均溢价为61%。5. 什么支撑了MSTR相对于净资产值（NAV）的溢价？伯恩斯坦认为，MSTR相对于其比特币净资产值的溢价来源于以下三点：杠杆式比特币投资使得每股稀释股本的比特币增值；债务策略可扩展，因为利息费用低（约0.5%）、期限较长（5-7年），无比特币担保风险；在上市公司中，能够大规模获取杠杆比特币投资的流动性股权工具有限。伯恩斯坦还通过对MSTR未来比特币持有量的增长进行折现来得出今天的合理溢价。根据伯恩斯坦，基于2033年预测价格的折现值，考虑概率加权的情景，得出了MSTR拥有约75%的长期可持续溢价。以下是三种情形：1. 基础情景：MSTR将其比特币储备增长到约4%的比特币总供应量。比特币继续经历四年价格周期，预测2025年的周期高点为20万美元，2029年为50万美元，2033年为100万美元，并有间歇性的1年熊市。MSTR的债务适度增长，从目前的73亿美元达到420亿美元，股权融资收入预计达到约350亿美元。2. 牛市情景：MSTR将其比特币储备增长到约6%的比特币总供应量。比特币继续经历四年价格周期，预测2025年的周期高点为20万美元，2029年为50万美元，2033年为100万美元，并有间歇性的1年熊市。MSTR的债务迅速增长超过10倍，从目前的73亿美元达到800亿美元，股权融资收入预计达到约660亿美元。3. 熊市情景：MSTR的比特币储备停滞在2.5%。比特币价格在2025年达到20万美元的高点，但随后进入长期熊市，影响MSTR扩展其比特币战略。MSTR被迫出售其比特币储备，以偿还已到期或到期时价值低于执行价的可转换债券。6. 谁在购买MSTR的可转换债务？MSTR的可转换债务表现如何？伯恩斯坦表示，债务本身没有下行风险，吸引了看好比特币上涨潜力的机构投资者，如长期资产管理公司和对冲基金，也吸引了专门从事可转换债务投资的投资组合经理，因为MSTR的可转换债务表现非常亮眼。今年迄今为止，MSTR的可转换债务实现了90%-221%的回报，相比之下，美国可转换债务指数的回报为15%。此外，可转换债务套利部门也通过持有MSTR可转换债务的多头头寸，并做空MSTR股票，来获取收益。7. MSTR什么时候会出售其比特币？MSTR的最终目标是什么？Saylor曾公开表示：“比特币是MicroStrategy的最终目标”。MSTR希望通过最大限度地利用可用的长期资本市场工具，以接近永久资本的方式持有其比特币仓位，长期无担保可转换债务就是一个例子。MSTR还暗示，公司正在探索长期优先股和固定收益市场作为下一步的资金来源。目前，比特币仅占全球金融资产池的0.2%，而MSTR认为，未来比特币将占据全球金融资产池的7%，到2045年每枚比特币的价值为1300万美元，这意味着，从现在起比特币的年复合增长率为29%——MSTR专注于比特币的这一长期目标。8. 其他公司是否在跟随MSTR的比特币战略？为什么大型科技公司无法复制比特币战略？近期，有一些公司在效仿MSTR实施比特币战略，如日股上市公司Metaplanet、美股上市公司Semler Scientific、MARA Holdings。这些公司使用内部资金，并积极筹集资本以购买比特币。伯恩斯坦认为，有多余现金且核心业务逐渐衰退的小型公司，可能会选择跟随MSTR的比特币战略。至于Mag 7等大型科技公司，的确有大量的自由现金可以用于投资比特币，但这些公司的核心业务占据主导地位，投资比特币在其整体战略中可能微不足道，例如，特斯拉拥有9亿美元的比特币，但显然，电动汽车等才是特斯拉的核心业务。此外，大型科技公司的核心业务需要不断增长的资本支出，这和投资比特币不相符。9. 什么是MSTR的“21/21计划”？对这一计划的预期是什么？10月30日，在公布三季报的同时，MSTR宣布了一项“21/21计划”，即在未来三年通过210亿美元的股权和210亿美元的债券筹集420亿美元，以购买更多的比特币。截至目前，MSTR已经筹集了超过80亿美元的股权，并在2024年第四季度筹集了30亿美元的可转换债务。鉴于比特币市场的蓬勃发展，伯恩斯坦预计，MSTR将在未来24个月内完成“21/21计划”。10. 相比比特币ETF，为什么投资者应该选择投资MSTR股票？MSTR在股权和长期可转换债务之间积极进行调整，使用杠杆效应投资比特币，于此同时，MSTR保持了相对保守的杠杆比例，约为比特币净资产的30%。伯恩斯坦认为，MSTR使用积极的杠杆策略来建立比特币储备，因此，持有MSTR股票就像持有主动管理的比特币杠杆敞口，而不是通过ETF被动地持有现货比特币。不过，MSTR的股价溢价有时会超出其基本面，使得MSTR的股价为现货比特币ETF的2-3倍，投资者在进行交易时应当了解MSTR的溢价。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375332466974752,"gmtCreate":1732637759737,"gmtModify":1732637761937,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494390725694021","idStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ &nbsp;</a>‌今天开盘都不拉不红，一分钟都没红过，这么弱，跌是应该的，稳都稳不住","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ &nbsp;</a>‌今天开盘都不拉不红，一分钟都没红过，这么弱，跌是应该的，稳都稳不住","text":"‌$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ ‌今天开盘都不拉不红，一分钟都没红过，这么弱，跌是应该的，稳都稳不住","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375332466974752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373363343601744,"gmtCreate":1732181104853,"gmtModify":1732182884741,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494390725694021","idStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp; 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