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duocairen
2021-01-22
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来喊出不降价时已经把自己的路堵死了,新能源车之所以估值这么高原因之一就是大家把他当成智能电子产品,而电子产品就是快速更新换代,老的逐渐降价是很正常的事情,只要不像特斯拉割韭菜式降价就行了。现在死扛着不降价,只能通过0首付购车,恢复免费换电这些,然而消费者看的还是车价。现在特斯拉的毛利率依然很高,还有很大降价空间,后边进一步降价的话,蔚来的销量肯定会越来越难
duocairen
2020-11-02
$NIO 20201106 27.0 CALL(NIO)$
快撑不住了[喷血]
duocairen
2020-04-07
$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$
为啥道指接近3万点时价格是34,现在道指才回升到23000点,这个就跌到36了,完全不成比例的
duocairen
2021-01-11
$NIO 20210115 70.0 CALL(NIO)$
周五已做空,不信你能涨到70
duocairen
2021-01-12
$蔚来(NIO)$
利率为0,转股溢价50%也就是股价90美元,既提升了股价预期,又补充了后边发展的弹药,明显利好,不知盘后抛的是怎么想的
蔚来汽车将可转换优先票据的利率定在0%至0.5%
duocairen
2021-02-02
$游戏驿站(GME)$
想知道,现在空头尺寸根据新闻已经只剩40%了,大家都还是持续SH,如果这两天空头尺寸掉到20%的正常水平,那我们手里的高价股票卖给谁呢
duocairen
2020-08-26
$蔚来(NIO)$
已经清仓,希望大家继续发财
duocairen
2021-03-24
$百度(BIDU)$
以前没有港股,只能跟着特斯拉等涨跌。现在好了有港股,港股跌,晚上美股跟着跌;美股跌,隔天港股跟着跌。无限循环美滋滋
duocairen
2021-03-08
$百度(BIDU)$
这段时间ark重仓的股还是别碰了,Ark基金一跌大量赎回,赎回又造成抛售导致股票跌,大量抄作业的散户跟着抛售,结果肯定飞流直下
duocairen
2021-11-25
$XPEV 20211126 53.0 CALL(XPEV)$
亏惨了[流泪]
duocairen
2021-01-29
以散户的名义起义,最终收割的却还是散户
美国散户疯狂引战,狗狗币24小时涨幅达1000%!
duocairen
2021-03-02
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
今晚又要崩了,一样遇上过年其他家没有下降这么厉害的
抱歉,原内容已删除
duocairen
2021-01-20
按照这砖家的观点,苹果现在市值不应该是2万亿,而是1000亿,因为当年诺基亚最高市值也就1000亿,苹果即使把诺基亚的全部市场份额占了也就是诺基亚的市值而已
抱歉,原内容已删除
duocairen
2020-07-14
$蔚来(NIO)$
特斯拉大涨不跟着涨,特斯拉小跌反而冲前边跟着跌
duocairen
2021-12-02
$腾讯音乐(TME)$
这个价格不贵,但是后续也基本没上涨空间了,盈利大头秀场直播被抖音快手打击,盈利逐年下降,老本行音乐又受到监管及网易云竞争
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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20211126 53.0 CALL(XPEV)$</a>亏惨了[流泪] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPEV 20211126 53.0 CALL(XPEV)$</a>亏惨了[流泪] ","text":"$XPEV 20211126 53.0 CALL(XPEV)$亏惨了[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e92ead32a417f6140600bd74369a2e7","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874677431","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351152732,"gmtCreate":1616578135626,"gmtModify":1616578135626,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>以前没有港股,只能跟着特斯拉等涨跌。现在好了有港股,港股跌,晚上美股跟着跌;美股跌,隔天港股跟着跌。无限循环美滋滋","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>以前没有港股,只能跟着特斯拉等涨跌。现在好了有港股,港股跌,晚上美股跟着跌;美股跌,隔天港股跟着跌。无限循环美滋滋","text":"$百度(BIDU)$以前没有港股,只能跟着特斯拉等涨跌。现在好了有港股,港股跌,晚上美股跟着跌;美股跌,隔天港股跟着跌。无限循环美滋滋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351152732","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329992549,"gmtCreate":1615196244681,"gmtModify":1703485489561,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>这段时间ark重仓的股还是别碰了,Ark基金一跌大量赎回,赎回又造成抛售导致股票跌,大量抄作业的散户跟着抛售,结果肯定飞流直下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>这段时间ark重仓的股还是别碰了,Ark基金一跌大量赎回,赎回又造成抛售导致股票跌,大量抄作业的散户跟着抛售,结果肯定飞流直下","text":"$百度(BIDU)$这段时间ark重仓的股还是别碰了,Ark基金一跌大量赎回,赎回又造成抛售导致股票跌,大量抄作业的散户跟着抛售,结果肯定飞流直下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329992549","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362420181,"gmtCreate":1614659461443,"gmtModify":1703479488101,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>今晚又要崩了,一样遇上过年其他家没有下降这么厉害的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>今晚又要崩了,一样遇上过年其他家没有下降这么厉害的","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$今晚又要崩了,一样遇上过年其他家没有下降这么厉害的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362420181","repostId":"1162119894","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162119894","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1614654182,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162119894?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-02 11:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"小鹏汽车公布2月交付量,1-2月累计交付量同比增长577%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162119894","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月2日讯,今日,小鹏汽车2021年2月交付成绩发布。由于春节假期等原因,2月是传统意义上的销售淡季,但我们仍然实现了2,223台的交付,1-2月累计交付量对比去年同期增长577%。值得一提的是,2月","content":"<p>3月2日讯,今日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>2021年2月交付成绩发布。</p><p>由于春节假期等原因,2月是传统意义上的销售淡季,但我们仍然实现了2,223台的交付,<b>1-2月累计交付量对比去年同期增长577%</b>。</p><p>值得一提的是,2月小鹏P7交付1,409台,累计交付达到20,181台,成为新造车势力<b>最快突破2万台交付</b>的车型。此外,我们还在春节前后加紧<b>完成了肇庆工厂的改线升级</b>,为快速增长的订单需求做好充分准备。</p><p>更新起点,鹏翼飞扬。犇牛勇进,智在高远!期待更多鹏友加入我们,共同探索美好<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>出行生活!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f7d5247ee3c057669e54a09a19618d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2858\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d513b05bca7352700c3233ceef1f0636\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"3040\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小鹏汽车公布2月交付量,1-2月累计交付量同比增长577%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小鹏汽车公布2月交付量,1-2月累计交付量同比增长577%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-02 11:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>3月2日讯,今日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>2021年2月交付成绩发布。</p><p>由于春节假期等原因,2月是传统意义上的销售淡季,但我们仍然实现了2,223台的交付,<b>1-2月累计交付量对比去年同期增长577%</b>。</p><p>值得一提的是,2月小鹏P7交付1,409台,累计交付达到20,181台,成为新造车势力<b>最快突破2万台交付</b>的车型。此外,我们还在春节前后加紧<b>完成了肇庆工厂的改线升级</b>,为快速增长的订单需求做好充分准备。</p><p>更新起点,鹏翼飞扬。犇牛勇进,智在高远!期待更多鹏友加入我们,共同探索美好<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>出行生活!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f7d5247ee3c057669e54a09a19618d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2858\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d513b05bca7352700c3233ceef1f0636\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"3040\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a7cf240033f083a329240e6179df017","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162119894","content_text":"3月2日讯,今日,小鹏汽车2021年2月交付成绩发布。由于春节假期等原因,2月是传统意义上的销售淡季,但我们仍然实现了2,223台的交付,1-2月累计交付量对比去年同期增长577%。值得一提的是,2月小鹏P7交付1,409台,累计交付达到20,181台,成为新造车势力最快突破2万台交付的车型。此外,我们还在春节前后加紧完成了肇庆工厂的改线升级,为快速增长的订单需求做好充分准备。更新起点,鹏翼飞扬。犇牛勇进,智在高远!期待更多鹏友加入我们,共同探索美好智能出行生活!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315817205,"gmtCreate":1612231033807,"gmtModify":1703759061684,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>蔚来喊出不降价时已经把自己的路堵死了,新能源车之所以估值这么高原因之一就是大家把他当成智能电子产品,而电子产品就是快速更新换代,老的逐渐降价是很正常的事情,只要不像特斯拉割韭菜式降价就行了。现在死扛着不降价,只能通过0首付购车,恢复免费换电这些,然而消费者看的还是车价。现在特斯拉的毛利率依然很高,还有很大降价空间,后边进一步降价的话,蔚来的销量肯定会越来越难","listText":"<a 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21:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"长江商学院教授刘劲:新能源汽车估值泡沫何时会破?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2104488308","media":"一财网","summary":"新能源汽车领域不仅看不到任何赢者通吃的垄断迹象,它竞争的激励程度似乎远超过传统汽车领域。但新能源汽车归根结底是辆车,在造车上,传统车企是有绝对优势的。但如果我们沿着本文的逻辑,当资本市场意识到新能源汽车市场将是一个充分竞争的、低利润率的市场之时,就是估值泡沫破裂之日。目前,由于造车新势力的先发优势,大部分新能源汽车的销量都来自于这些公司。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题:长江商学院教授刘劲:新能源汽车估值泡沫何时会破?</p><p> 竞争白热化时,更有可能大量新能源车企无法盈利,以零利润甚至负利润来推动销售、保持份额。这时,如果市场清醒过来,泡沫就破了。 </p><p>2020年,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>卖了50万辆车,将将盈利,市值大约是7700亿美元,是丰田、大众、通用、现代、福特及宝马之和。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>卖了不到5万辆车,大幅亏损,市值却有900亿美元,是通用和福特之和。特斯拉如果不是能卖掉碳排放指标,实际和蔚来一样,都是不盈利的。而这些传统车企每年的汽车销量都在600万到1000万辆车之间,毛利一般在15% ~20%,净利平均在3%左右。</p><p>市值差距如此巨大,如果不是新能源汽车的估值泡沫,就只能是市场认为像特斯拉和蔚来这样的造车新势力会彻底取代像丰田和BBA(奔驰、宝马、奥迪)等传统车企。为什么这么说?因为整个全球汽车行业的规模是有限的,每年大概9000万辆车,销售额大约2万亿美元,增长速度大约是每年3%。由于汽车行业的增长和人均收入增长息息相关,而人均收入增长很难突破3%,因此汽车行业的整体增速很难突破这一速率。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021120s/200/w640h360/20210120/9e07-khxeamv9667098.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>如果维持目前的市场架构,净利润率是3%,那么就只能支撑1万亿美元左右车企的市值:市销率是0.5倍,市盈率是16.5倍,和汽车行业的历史估值水平相符。但目前特斯拉和一众造车新势力加起来的市值已经和整个市场的容量非常近似,因此说,如果这些价格合理,造车新势力就一定得完全取代传统车企。那么,有没有这个可能呢?</p><p>我和我的同事陈宏亚在最近写的一篇文章《新能源汽车行业:是颠覆、还是泡沫?》里阐述了为什么造车新势力不可能完全取代传统车企。<font>最核心的原因是新能源汽车行业和IT、互联网行业的逻辑是不一样的:互联网因为有用户数据的沉淀,有很强的用户黏性;而汽车的数据沉淀是属于机器的,对用户没有黏性。</font>因此像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>这样的互联网公司,一旦跑到行业的前列,由于用户黏性就能长时间保持优势,获得高额的利润率,甚至产生垄断;但汽车因为没有黏性,今天你领先了,立即会招来强力的、众多的竞争,从而会失去一些市场份额。</p><p>在手机领域里,安卓、苹果二分世界,因为用户黏性,大概是井水不犯河水;但开奔驰的人第二辆车不见得还会买奔驰,宝马一样好,可能还更有新鲜感。所以像丰田这样目前最成功的车企,市场份额也就10%左右。</p><p><font>新能源汽车领域不仅看不到任何赢者通吃的垄断迹象,它竞争的激励程度似乎远超过传统汽车领域。</font>有了合适的动力电池,新能源汽车的动力系统远比传统的发动机、传动器简单,因此在很大程度上降低了造车的门槛。因此不仅造车新势力能做电动车,像苹果、谷歌、华为、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>这样的科技巨头也都能做,当然更不能拉下传统车企。事实上,最近已有消息说百度要造车,苹果要造车,连<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">索尼</a>都把样车造出来了。</p><p>从总体上讲,电池动力带来了汽车行业的哪些改变?对社会来说,是降低排放、解决污染的重要举措;对消费者来说,是跑车一样的驾车体验;对造车新势力和IT巨头来说是新的市场机会;对传统车企来说是失去了一个最大的护城河:百年积累下来的燃油发动机技术。</p><p><font>汽车行业的未来在新能源,到现在已经基本不用怀疑。</font>传统车企为了能活下来,一定要在新能源领域拼死一搏。动力系统的颠覆让它们失去了一个天然的竞争优势,但并不是说它们就失去了所有服务市场的能力。</p><p>新能源汽车大概由三部分组成:电池电机、电子系统、造车工艺。由于电池大都是像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">松下</a>这种第三方供应商提供,造车新势力的主要优势(如果有)是在电子系统上。但新能源汽车归根结底是辆车,在造车上,传统车企是有绝对优势的。特斯拉自己建工厂,造出来的车是大毛病没有,但小毛病百出;蔚来和一些其他的新势力干脆把造车都外包了,自己只管设计、软件、集成。因此,从总体来说,传统车企和造车新势力在整体制造新能源汽车的能力上可以说不相上下,各有千秋。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd2021120s/200/w640h360/20210120/783a-khxeamv9667103.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>对于第一梯队的传统车企来说,它们完全有能力制造出和特斯拉一样炫酷的新能源产品。就目前的规划来看,中国车企、德系车企几乎清一色已经在大举进军新能源领域,美企紧跟其后。日企保守些,但在新能源领域,尤其是氢能源上实际非常领先。</p><p>用上面的逻辑,如果在新能源领域大家基本持有类似的竞争力,那么随着IT巨头和造车新势力的进入,传统车企的拼死抵抗,最后的结果一定是市场份额重新规划,每家车企,无论新旧势力,会占据比从前更小的市场份额。从前的造车巨头可以每年卖千万辆车,将来很可能会减半。当然技术落后的公司会被淘汰,但这跟新能源还是燃油车无关。</p><p><font>造车新势力在资本市场的疯狂估值实际上是命悬一线。</font>2020年这些企业的估值飙升源自于市场终于在几年的怀疑之后认识到了新能源汽车的可行性和历史必然性。从中国到欧洲再到美国,消费者对新能源汽车的看法从吃螃蟹正在迅速演化成吃家常便饭。</p><p><font>但市场的失误在于没有意识到汽车行业与IT行业本质上的区别:特斯拉不是汽车行业的苹果,而是没有用户黏性的苹果,更像功能手机时代的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>。</font>汽车行业的竞争将是极其残酷的,不是赢者通吃,会是春秋战国,百家争鸣。</p><p>特斯拉确实是新能源汽车中的佼佼者,但很快大家就发现蔚来实际也不错,小鹏也不错,理想也不错,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>也不错,大众也不错,宝马也不错 ……所有第一次开特斯拉的人都会被它跑车一样惊人的加速能力而折服,但没有意识到所有的高端新能源汽车实际都能做到同样或类似的体验。在欧洲,去年新能源汽车卖得最多的不是特斯拉,而是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQF.UK\">雷诺</a>和大众。</p><p>那么,如果说造车新势力的股价里含有巨大的泡沫,泡沫什么时候能破?任何做资本市场的预测都是充满了风险的,因为有太多的不确定因素。但如果我们沿着本文的逻辑,<font>当资本市场意识到新能源汽车市场将是一个充分竞争的、低利润率的市场之时,就是估值泡沫破裂之日。</font></p><p><font>在将来几年,所有的新能源汽车产品都会有高速的增长,这是大势所趋,因此增长率本身不但不会刺穿泡沫反而会对高估值提供数据支撑。</font>泡沫真正敏感的是每家企业的市占率。目前,由于造车新势力的先发优势,大部分新能源汽车的销量都来自于这些公司。但随着更多玩家的进入,传统车企的转型,很快跑在前面的车企就会感到竞争的压力而失去市场份额。</p><p>竞争白热化时,更有可能大量车企无法盈利,以零利润甚至负利润来推动销售、保持份额。这时,如果市场清醒过来,泡沫就破了。那到底需要多长时间呢?目前看来,最多一到两年时间吧。</p><p><font>(作者系长江商学院教授)</font></p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>长江商学院教授刘劲:新能源汽车估值泡沫何时会破?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n长江商学院教授刘劲:新能源汽车估值泡沫何时会破?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-20 21:26 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_1733360754_6750fc7202000tygy.html><strong>一财网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:长江商学院教授刘劲:新能源汽车估值泡沫何时会破? 竞争白热化时,更有可能大量新能源车企无法盈利,以零利润甚至负利润来推动销售、保持份额。这时,如果市场清醒过来,泡沫就破了。 2020年,特斯拉卖了50万辆车,将将盈利,市值大约是7700亿美元,是丰田、大众、通用、现代、福特及宝马之和。蔚来卖了不到5万辆车,大幅亏损,市值却有900亿美元,是通用和福特之和。特斯拉如果不是能卖掉碳排放指标,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_1733360754_6750fc7202000tygy.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f3c7d799dd2ab62e084e0e8c8dc16ee","relate_stocks":{"09086":"华夏纳指-U","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","03086":"华夏纳指"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_1733360754_6750fc7202000tygy.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2104488308","content_text":"原标题:长江商学院教授刘劲:新能源汽车估值泡沫何时会破? 竞争白热化时,更有可能大量新能源车企无法盈利,以零利润甚至负利润来推动销售、保持份额。这时,如果市场清醒过来,泡沫就破了。 2020年,特斯拉卖了50万辆车,将将盈利,市值大约是7700亿美元,是丰田、大众、通用、现代、福特及宝马之和。蔚来卖了不到5万辆车,大幅亏损,市值却有900亿美元,是通用和福特之和。特斯拉如果不是能卖掉碳排放指标,实际和蔚来一样,都是不盈利的。而这些传统车企每年的汽车销量都在600万到1000万辆车之间,毛利一般在15% ~20%,净利平均在3%左右。市值差距如此巨大,如果不是新能源汽车的估值泡沫,就只能是市场认为像特斯拉和蔚来这样的造车新势力会彻底取代像丰田和BBA(奔驰、宝马、奥迪)等传统车企。为什么这么说?因为整个全球汽车行业的规模是有限的,每年大概9000万辆车,销售额大约2万亿美元,增长速度大约是每年3%。由于汽车行业的增长和人均收入增长息息相关,而人均收入增长很难突破3%,因此汽车行业的整体增速很难突破这一速率。如果维持目前的市场架构,净利润率是3%,那么就只能支撑1万亿美元左右车企的市值:市销率是0.5倍,市盈率是16.5倍,和汽车行业的历史估值水平相符。但目前特斯拉和一众造车新势力加起来的市值已经和整个市场的容量非常近似,因此说,如果这些价格合理,造车新势力就一定得完全取代传统车企。那么,有没有这个可能呢?我和我的同事陈宏亚在最近写的一篇文章《新能源汽车行业:是颠覆、还是泡沫?》里阐述了为什么造车新势力不可能完全取代传统车企。最核心的原因是新能源汽车行业和IT、互联网行业的逻辑是不一样的:互联网因为有用户数据的沉淀,有很强的用户黏性;而汽车的数据沉淀是属于机器的,对用户没有黏性。因此像苹果、谷歌这样的互联网公司,一旦跑到行业的前列,由于用户黏性就能长时间保持优势,获得高额的利润率,甚至产生垄断;但汽车因为没有黏性,今天你领先了,立即会招来强力的、众多的竞争,从而会失去一些市场份额。在手机领域里,安卓、苹果二分世界,因为用户黏性,大概是井水不犯河水;但开奔驰的人第二辆车不见得还会买奔驰,宝马一样好,可能还更有新鲜感。所以像丰田这样目前最成功的车企,市场份额也就10%左右。新能源汽车领域不仅看不到任何赢者通吃的垄断迹象,它竞争的激励程度似乎远超过传统汽车领域。有了合适的动力电池,新能源汽车的动力系统远比传统的发动机、传动器简单,因此在很大程度上降低了造车的门槛。因此不仅造车新势力能做电动车,像苹果、谷歌、华为、百度这样的科技巨头也都能做,当然更不能拉下传统车企。事实上,最近已有消息说百度要造车,苹果要造车,连索尼都把样车造出来了。从总体上讲,电池动力带来了汽车行业的哪些改变?对社会来说,是降低排放、解决污染的重要举措;对消费者来说,是跑车一样的驾车体验;对造车新势力和IT巨头来说是新的市场机会;对传统车企来说是失去了一个最大的护城河:百年积累下来的燃油发动机技术。汽车行业的未来在新能源,到现在已经基本不用怀疑。传统车企为了能活下来,一定要在新能源领域拼死一搏。动力系统的颠覆让它们失去了一个天然的竞争优势,但并不是说它们就失去了所有服务市场的能力。新能源汽车大概由三部分组成:电池电机、电子系统、造车工艺。由于电池大都是像宁德时代、松下这种第三方供应商提供,造车新势力的主要优势(如果有)是在电子系统上。但新能源汽车归根结底是辆车,在造车上,传统车企是有绝对优势的。特斯拉自己建工厂,造出来的车是大毛病没有,但小毛病百出;蔚来和一些其他的新势力干脆把造车都外包了,自己只管设计、软件、集成。因此,从总体来说,传统车企和造车新势力在整体制造新能源汽车的能力上可以说不相上下,各有千秋。对于第一梯队的传统车企来说,它们完全有能力制造出和特斯拉一样炫酷的新能源产品。就目前的规划来看,中国车企、德系车企几乎清一色已经在大举进军新能源领域,美企紧跟其后。日企保守些,但在新能源领域,尤其是氢能源上实际非常领先。用上面的逻辑,如果在新能源领域大家基本持有类似的竞争力,那么随着IT巨头和造车新势力的进入,传统车企的拼死抵抗,最后的结果一定是市场份额重新规划,每家车企,无论新旧势力,会占据比从前更小的市场份额。从前的造车巨头可以每年卖千万辆车,将来很可能会减半。当然技术落后的公司会被淘汰,但这跟新能源还是燃油车无关。造车新势力在资本市场的疯狂估值实际上是命悬一线。2020年这些企业的估值飙升源自于市场终于在几年的怀疑之后认识到了新能源汽车的可行性和历史必然性。从中国到欧洲再到美国,消费者对新能源汽车的看法从吃螃蟹正在迅速演化成吃家常便饭。但市场的失误在于没有意识到汽车行业与IT行业本质上的区别:特斯拉不是汽车行业的苹果,而是没有用户黏性的苹果,更像功能手机时代的诺基亚。汽车行业的竞争将是极其残酷的,不是赢者通吃,会是春秋战国,百家争鸣。特斯拉确实是新能源汽车中的佼佼者,但很快大家就发现蔚来实际也不错,小鹏也不错,理想也不错,比亚迪也不错,大众也不错,宝马也不错 ……所有第一次开特斯拉的人都会被它跑车一样惊人的加速能力而折服,但没有意识到所有的高端新能源汽车实际都能做到同样或类似的体验。在欧洲,去年新能源汽车卖得最多的不是特斯拉,而是雷诺和大众。那么,如果说造车新势力的股价里含有巨大的泡沫,泡沫什么时候能破?任何做资本市场的预测都是充满了风险的,因为有太多的不确定因素。但如果我们沿着本文的逻辑,当资本市场意识到新能源汽车市场将是一个充分竞争的、低利润率的市场之时,就是估值泡沫破裂之日。在将来几年,所有的新能源汽车产品都会有高速的增长,这是大势所趋,因此增长率本身不但不会刺穿泡沫反而会对高估值提供数据支撑。泡沫真正敏感的是每家企业的市占率。目前,由于造车新势力的先发优势,大部分新能源汽车的销量都来自于这些公司。但随着更多玩家的进入,传统车企的转型,很快跑在前面的车企就会感到竞争的压力而失去市场份额。竞争白热化时,更有可能大量车企无法盈利,以零利润甚至负利润来推动销售、保持份额。这时,如果市场清醒过来,泡沫就破了。那到底需要多长时间呢?目前看来,最多一到两年时间吧。(作者系长江商学院教授)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332280913,"gmtCreate":1610411169932,"gmtModify":1703744112960,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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06:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来汽车将可转换优先票据的利率定在0%至0.5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2102911560","media":"云财经","summary":"云财经讯,据悉,蔚来汽车将可转换优先票据的利率定在0%至0.5%,转股溢价为45%-50%;预计将于1月12日美股盘后定价,该公司将通过瑞士信贷、高盛、摩根士丹利、以及中金公司发行可转换优先票据(彭博)","content":"<html><body><article><p>云财经讯,据悉,蔚来汽车将可转换优先票据的<span>利率</span>定在0%至0.5%,转股<span>溢价</span>为45%-50%;预计将于1月12日美股盘后定价,该公司将通过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>发行可转换优先票据(彭博)</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021011206285977d980c4&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28009f8e87ba9680b5b94d59ba7ac119","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021011206285977d980c4&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2102911560","content_text":"云财经讯,据悉,蔚来汽车将可转换优先票据的利率定在0%至0.5%,转股溢价为45%-50%;预计将于1月12日美股盘后定价,该公司将通过瑞士信贷、高盛、摩根士丹利、以及中金公司发行可转换优先票据(彭博)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541539080096232","authorId":"3541539080096232","authorIdStr":"3541539080096232","name":"enjoyzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd265f0c92aacaef8199bcf7789d2c32","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3541539080096232"},"content":"请教大神,把正股卖了,全换成1年期价内call,怎么样","text":"请教大神,把正股卖了,全换成1年期价内call,怎么样","html":"请教大神,把正股卖了,全换成1年期价内call,怎么样"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332106852,"gmtCreate":1610352472476,"gmtModify":1703743640326,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>发行可转换优先票据(彭博)</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来汽车将可转换优先票据的利率定在0%至0.5%</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28009f8e87ba9680b5b94d59ba7ac119","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2021011206285977d980c4&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2102911560","content_text":"云财经讯,据悉,蔚来汽车将可转换优先票据的利率定在0%至0.5%,转股溢价为45%-50%;预计将于1月12日美股盘后定价,该公司将通过瑞士信贷、高盛、摩根士丹利、以及中金公司发行可转换优先票据(彭博)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541539080096232","authorId":"3541539080096232","authorIdStr":"3541539080096232","name":"enjoyzhang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd265f0c92aacaef8199bcf7789d2c32","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3541539080096232"},"content":"请教大神,把正股卖了,全换成1年期价内call,怎么样","text":"请教大神,把正股卖了,全换成1年期价内call,怎么样","html":"请教大神,把正股卖了,全换成1年期价内call,怎么样"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315817205,"gmtCreate":1612231033807,"gmtModify":1703759061684,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国散户疯狂引战,狗狗币24小时涨幅达1000%!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-01-29 12:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据币安平台报价,狗狗币24小时涨幅达1000%,现报0.0843美元/枚。</p><p>此前,掀起史诗级逼空风暴的美国散户聚集地Reddit论坛提及此资产。一个名为“Dogecoin是下一个GME/比特币”的帖子说,让Dogecoin达到1美元一个币的价格(目前约为0.01美元)将是一个不可思议的成就,这完全改变了加密市场,送Dogecoin到月球。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0d53d3d30e42f62105539cb3386286\" tg-width=\"1230\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7205988a988ce4825a8d768caf27bd23","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127806526","content_text":"据币安平台报价,狗狗币24小时涨幅达1000%,现报0.0843美元/枚。此前,掀起史诗级逼空风暴的美国散户聚集地Reddit论坛提及此资产。一个名为“Dogecoin是下一个GME/比特币”的帖子说,让Dogecoin达到1美元一个币的价格(目前约为0.01美元)将是一个不可思议的成就,这完全改变了加密市场,送Dogecoin到月球。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362420181,"gmtCreate":1614659461443,"gmtModify":1703479488101,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>今晚又要崩了,一样遇上过年其他家没有下降这么厉害的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>今晚又要崩了,一样遇上过年其他家没有下降这么厉害的","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$今晚又要崩了,一样遇上过年其他家没有下降这么厉害的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362420181","repostId":"1162119894","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337240819,"gmtCreate":1611154316031,"gmtModify":1703748424704,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"按照这砖家的观点,苹果现在市值不应该是2万亿,而是1000亿,因为当年诺基亚最高市值也就1000亿,苹果即使把诺基亚的全部市场份额占了也就是诺基亚的市值而已","listText":"按照这砖家的观点,苹果现在市值不应该是2万亿,而是1000亿,因为当年诺基亚最高市值也就1000亿,苹果即使把诺基亚的全部市场份额占了也就是诺基亚的市值而已","text":"按照这砖家的观点,苹果现在市值不应该是2万亿,而是1000亿,因为当年诺基亚最高市值也就1000亿,苹果即使把诺基亚的全部市场份额占了也就是诺基亚的市值而已","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337240819","repostId":"2104488308","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943572403,"gmtCreate":1594658687402,"gmtModify":1704206267489,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>特斯拉大涨不跟着涨,特斯拉小跌反而冲前边跟着跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>特斯拉大涨不跟着涨,特斯拉小跌反而冲前边跟着跌","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$特斯拉大涨不跟着涨,特斯拉小跌反而冲前边跟着跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943572403","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603240649,"gmtCreate":1638417604580,"gmtModify":1638417604580,"author":{"id":"3494381996222643","authorId":"3494381996222643","authorIdStr":"3494381996222643","name":"duocairen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494381996222643"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>这个价格不贵,但是后续也基本没上涨空间了,盈利大头秀场直播被抖音快手打击,盈利逐年下降,老本行音乐又受到监管及网易云竞争","listText":"<a 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