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东方雨木

东方雨木

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2022-01-10

没抓住重点，现在最大的问题是年轻人不愿意生了，而不是75，80后不愿意生。一胎都没有，何谈二胎三胎[笑哭]

任泽平：建议央行多印2万亿，用10年鼓励多生5000万孩子

2021-02-09

哈哈，现在还有人说比特币毫无价值，不知道说啥[捂脸]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-02

$蔚来(NIO)$多头呢？不叫嚣了？[笑哭] [笑哭]

2020-11-25

$蔚来(NIO)$大型韭菜收割现场[贱笑] [贱笑]

2020-11-16

$蔚来(NIO)$快跑，跑了就是赚了，以后再接回来[贱笑] [贱笑] 。其实我早跑了[贱笑] [贱笑]

2020-11-16

$京东(JD)$这财报，被多多吊打${{941d0fd0016d47728b2b9a3d74a45d23}}

2020-11-13

$蔚来(NIO)$跑了跑了，祝留下的兄弟发财

2020-10-26

这估值，传统银行红了眼

蚂蚁定价80港元每股，周二公开发售，11月5日上市

2020-10-19

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$想比谁都慢，跌比谁都快[笑哭] [笑哭]

2020-10-15

$蔚来(NIO)$盘前就很热闹

2020-09-30

$波奇宠物(BQ)$这个股好狠[笑哭] [笑哭]

2020-09-29

$贝壳(BEKE)$这是个庄股

2020-09-17

$跟谁学(GSX)$空头气炸了[贱笑] [贱笑]

2020-09-15

$拼多多(PDD)$今晚最靓的仔

2020-09-15

$跟谁学(GSX)$继续持有[贱笑]

2020-09-15

**行情了

2020-09-11

$蔚来(NIO)$萎了？

2020-09-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$韭月韭日，亿山顶兄弟。同在股市为韭菜，每逢崩盘倍思君。遥知兄弟套高处，遍寻天台少一人。[笑哭] [笑哭]

2020-09-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$这些盘前入的，是真牛逼

2020-09-08

$蔚来(NIO)$今晚红不了，洗洗睡吧

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lText":"没抓住重点，现在最大的问题是年轻人不愿意生了，而不是75，80后不愿意生。一胎都没有，何谈二胎三胎[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"没抓住重点，现在最大的问题是年轻人不愿意生了，而不是75，80后不愿意生。一胎都没有，何谈二胎三胎[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"没抓住重点，现在最大的问题是年轻人不愿意生了，而不是75，80后不愿意生。一胎都没有，何谈二胎三胎[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694963093","repostId":"2202474322","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2202474322","pubTimestamp":1641773116,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2202474322?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-10 08:05","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"任泽平：建议央行多印2万亿，用10年鼓励多生5000万孩子","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2202474322","media":"市场资讯","summary":"任泽平团队发表《解决低生育的办法找到了——中国生育报告》一文。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月10日凌晨，任泽平团队在泽平宏观微信公众号发表《解决低生育的办法找到了——中国生育报告》一文，文章认为推出鼓励生育基金刻不容缓，建议央行多印2万亿，对每孩每月给予现金奖励，用10年鼓励社会多生5000万孩子。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8b731b4b65802dc17dd5c1650ab0fb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>1、尽快建立鼓励生育基金，央行多印2万亿，用10年社会多生5000万孩子，解决人口老龄化少子化问题，让未来更有活力，而且不增加<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>、企业和地方负担，我们研究认为现在只有这个办法最务实有效可行。</p><p>根据调查显示，低生育的主要原因是生养孩子成本太高、房价太高，占比分别为41.5%、27.2%，因此降低生育养育成本是主要出路，建立鼓励生育基金的支持率高达66.5%。</p><p>建立鼓励生育基金，短期有助于稳增长、拉动内需，长期有助于改善供给侧、优化人口结构、提升社会活力、提高长期经济潜在增长率、助力民族复兴。功在当代，立在千秋。</p><p>推出鼓励生育基金刻不容缓。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cef87af1a6d731d40301646dd8654b1\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"925\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/572519a549a9732836a0a321dd7d27e8\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2、中国正面临世界上最严峻的老龄化少子化挑战，“低生育率陷阱”。中国人口形势概括讲，老龄化比其他国家更快，少子化比其他国家更低。</p><p>有证据表明，2021年生育率将进一步降低到1.1左右，比欧美发达国家还低50%多，出生人口可能降至1000万左右。如果政策不做大力度调整，中国将在几十年内成为老龄化程度和人口萎缩最严重的国家之一。</p><p>看看全球的总和生育率数据，欧洲是1.6，北美洲是1.8，拉丁美洲是2，大洋洲2.4，亚洲2.2，中国1.1，日本1.34，非洲是4，穆斯林国家是3.6。大家可以想一想，未来100年这个世界会发生什么？</p><p>中国在2020年生育率仅为1.3，比日本更低，全年仅出生1200万人，出生率创有记录以来最低水平。如果总和生育率降至1.0，相当于一代人之后人口规模少一半，到2100年，新出生人口只有179万，还不到美国新出生人口的一半。人口老龄化少子化将深远影响中国经济增长潜力、创新活力、抚养负担、民众幸福指数乃至民族复兴。</p><p>放开并鼓励生育为什么重要？1962-1976年，是婴儿潮和人口红利来源，今年46-60岁了。中国过去40年高增长主要是人口红利、改革红利和全球化红利叠加。</p><p>跳出“低生育率陷阱”，一般性的温和政策于事无补，必须出台大力度措施，放大招。</p><p>3、根据发达国家经验，鼓励生育资金大部分来自中央政府，地方政府提供额外补贴，设立专门机构建立鼓励生育体系。大多数的研究发现，定期的现金补贴对于生育的影响有正向作用。</p><p>当前最重要的是由中央和地方政府设立“鼓励生育基金”，从根本上解决地方政府没钱、企业和个人负担过重的问题，支持生育家庭现金补贴、个税抵扣、企业所得税减免、购房租房补贴、建设托儿所等，这在OECD国家行之有效、能够改善生育率。设计可以参考棚户区改造工程和央行碳减排支持工具，最终由央行印钱，不增加地方政府赤字和企业负担，让更多的年轻人生得起、养得起、敢生。</p><p>过去我们印钞票刺激房地产，留下高房价。如果转变为印钞票鼓励生育，将在未来留下一批年轻人，为爱而生，酝酿下一个希望，生就对了。</p><p>4、一定要抓住75-85年还能生的时间窗口，抓紧出台鼓励生育基金，再不出台就晚了，不要指望90后00后。我国育龄妇女正在以每年300万-400万的速度在下降。</p><p>原因也很简单，就是75年-85年的这批人还有多子多福的生育观念，而90后和00后不要说生二胎或者三胎，很多人甚至连结婚都不愿意。</p><p>根据数据显示，2018年我国的单身成年人口还有2.4亿，其中处于独居状态的就有7200万人，预计到2021年这一数据可能会涨至9200万人。除此之外从2013年起我国的新婚登记人口人数也是一年不如一年，2020年年新婚登记人数只有813万对。所以，想要鼓励生三胎还是要看75年-85年的这批人。</p><p>5、这些年，我们呼吁新基建、放开三孩、新房改等。做有温度、有情怀、有责任的研究。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n任泽平：建议央行多印2万亿，用10年鼓励多生5000万孩子\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-10 08:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2022-01-10/doc-ikyakumx9361367.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1月10日凌晨，任泽平团队在泽平宏观微信公众号发表《解决低生育的办法找到了——中国生育报告》一文，文章认为推出鼓励生育基金刻不容缓，建议央行多印2万亿，对每孩每月给予现金奖励，用10年鼓励社会多生5000万孩子。1、尽快建立鼓励生育基金，央行多印2万亿，用10年社会多生5000万孩子，解决人口老龄化少子化问题，让未来更有活力，而且不增加老百姓、企业和地方负担，我们研究认为现在只有这个办法最务实有效...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2022-01-10/doc-ikyakumx9361367.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a957d1c33b9f0ccda7a601b3fbd9ec8e","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2022-01-10/doc-ikyakumx9361367.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2202474322","content_text":"1月10日凌晨，任泽平团队在泽平宏观微信公众号发表《解决低生育的办法找到了——中国生育报告》一文，文章认为推出鼓励生育基金刻不容缓，建议央行多印2万亿，对每孩每月给予现金奖励，用10年鼓励社会多生5000万孩子。1、尽快建立鼓励生育基金，央行多印2万亿，用10年社会多生5000万孩子，解决人口老龄化少子化问题，让未来更有活力，而且不增加老百姓、企业和地方负担，我们研究认为现在只有这个办法最务实有效可行。根据调查显示，低生育的主要原因是生养孩子成本太高、房价太高，占比分别为41.5%、27.2%，因此降低生育养育成本是主要出路，建立鼓励生育基金的支持率高达66.5%。建立鼓励生育基金，短期有助于稳增长、拉动内需，长期有助于改善供给侧、优化人口结构、提升社会活力、提高长期经济潜在增长率、助力民族复兴。功在当代，立在千秋。推出鼓励生育基金刻不容缓。2、中国正面临世界上最严峻的老龄化少子化挑战，“低生育率陷阱”。中国人口形势概括讲，老龄化比其他国家更快，少子化比其他国家更低。有证据表明，2021年生育率将进一步降低到1.1左右，比欧美发达国家还低50%多，出生人口可能降至1000万左右。如果政策不做大力度调整，中国将在几十年内成为老龄化程度和人口萎缩最严重的国家之一。看看全球的总和生育率数据，欧洲是1.6，北美洲是1.8，拉丁美洲是2，大洋洲2.4，亚洲2.2，中国1.1，日本1.34，非洲是4，穆斯林国家是3.6。大家可以想一想，未来100年这个世界会发生什么？中国在2020年生育率仅为1.3，比日本更低，全年仅出生1200万人，出生率创有记录以来最低水平。如果总和生育率降至1.0，相当于一代人之后人口规模少一半，到2100年，新出生人口只有179万，还不到美国新出生人口的一半。人口老龄化少子化将深远影响中国经济增长潜力、创新活力、抚养负担、民众幸福指数乃至民族复兴。放开并鼓励生育为什么重要？1962-1976年，是婴儿潮和人口红利来源，今年46-60岁了。中国过去40年高增长主要是人口红利、改革红利和全球化红利叠加。跳出“低生育率陷阱”，一般性的温和政策于事无补，必须出台大力度措施，放大招。3、根据发达国家经验，鼓励生育资金大部分来自中央政府，地方政府提供额外补贴，设立专门机构建立鼓励生育体系。大多数的研究发现，定期的现金补贴对于生育的影响有正向作用。当前最重要的是由中央和地方政府设立“鼓励生育基金”，从根本上解决地方政府没钱、企业和个人负担过重的问题，支持生育家庭现金补贴、个税抵扣、企业所得税减免、购房租房补贴、建设托儿所等，这在OECD国家行之有效、能够改善生育率。设计可以参考棚户区改造工程和央行碳减排支持工具，最终由央行印钱，不增加地方政府赤字和企业负担，让更多的年轻人生得起、养得起、敢生。过去我们印钞票刺激房地产，留下高房价。如果转变为印钞票鼓励生育，将在未来留下一批年轻人，为爱而生，酝酿下一个希望，生就对了。4、一定要抓住75-85年还能生的时间窗口，抓紧出台鼓励生育基金，再不出台就晚了，不要指望90后00后。我国育龄妇女正在以每年300万-400万的速度在下降。原因也很简单，就是75年-85年的这批人还有多子多福的生育观念，而90后和00后不要说生二胎或者三胎，很多人甚至连结婚都不愿意。根据数据显示，2018年我国的单身成年人口还有2.4亿，其中处于独居状态的就有7200万人，预计到2021年这一数据可能会涨至9200万人。除此之外从2013年起我国的新婚登记人口人数也是一年不如一年，2020年年新婚登记人数只有813万对。所以，想要鼓励生三胎还是要看75年-85年的这批人。5、这些年，我们呼吁新基建、放开三孩、新房改等。做有温度、有情怀、有责任的研究。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383329181,"gmtCreate":1612840562643,"gmtModify":1703765705451,"author":{"id":"3492925001355238","authorId":"3492925001355238","name":"东方雨木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b457fb5f4c1f9f5a251ccd1cb599465","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492925001355238","authorIdStr":"3492925001355238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈，现在还有人说比特币毫无价值，不知道说啥[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"哈哈，现在还有人说比特币毫无价值，不知道说啥[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"哈哈，现在还有人说比特币毫无价值，不知道说啥[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383329181","repostId":"1196850687","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398596730,"gmtCreate":1606918547420,"gmtModify":1703845363155,"author":{"id":"3492925001355238","authorId":"3492925001355238","name":"东方雨木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b457fb5f4c1f9f5a251ccd1cb599465","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492925001355238","authorIdStr":"3492925001355238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蚂蚁定价80港元每股，周二公开发售，11月5日上市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-10-26 19:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>10月26日晚间消息，蚂蚁集团公布：发行人和联席主承销商根据初步询价结果，综合考虑发行人基本面、市场情况、同行业上市公司估值水平、募集资金需求及承销风险等因素，协商确定本次<b>H股发行价每股80.00港元</b>。H股首次公开发售的发售股份数目1,670,706,000股H股（视乎H股超额配股权行使与否而定）。</p><p>H股将以每手50股H股进行买卖，H股的股份代号为6688。<b>预期将于2020年10月27日（星期二）上午九时正开始香港公开发售，于2020年11月5日（星期四）上午九时正开始于香港联交所买卖</b>。</p><p>A股科创板发行价格为68.80元/股。公告内容显示，按本次发行价格68.80元/股计算，A股超额配售选择权行使前，预计发行人募集资金总额为1,149.45亿元；若A股超额配售选择权全额行使，预计发行人募集资金总额为1,321.86亿元。</p><p>根据蚂蚁集团上市发行方案，按照1：1的首发规模，蚂蚁将分别在A股和H股发行不超过16.7亿股的新股，A+H发行的新股数量合计不超过发行后（绿鞋前）公司总股本的11%。若A股超额配售选择权全额行使，则A股发行总股数将扩大至不超过19.21亿股。其中，在A股的初始战略配售股票数13.4亿股，占A股初始发行量80%，创科创板历史纪录。</p><p>同时，蚂蚁集团公布战略配售结果，天猫获配金额502.24亿元，淡马锡、阿布达比投资局等多家机构均获配14.76亿元。</p><p>根据中金、摩根士丹利、花旗、摩根大通等主要投行的盈利预测，蚂蚁未来两年（2022年）预期市盈率仅24倍。</p><p><b>蚂蚁集团沪港两地上市募资额为345亿美元，超过沙特阿美创下的294亿美元的纪录，创有史以来最大规模IPO纪录</b>。</p><p>阿里巴巴集团表示：诚如先前于2020年10月21日所公布，作为A股发行中向战略投资者配售的一部分，阿里巴巴已同意认购7.3亿股蚂蚁集团A股股份。按发行价每股人民币68.80元计，认购事项的总对价为约人民币502亿元。</p><p>基于认购7.3亿股A股股份，本次发行后阿里巴巴预期将持有蚂蚁集团约31.8%的股权，或31.2%的股权（若承销商悉数行使选择权认购A股发行及H股发行项下的额外股份）。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92890b55f8b70709c23ff81ddac0242d","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","06688":"蚂蚁集团"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192003015","content_text":"10月26日晚间消息，蚂蚁集团公布：发行人和联席主承销商根据初步询价结果，综合考虑发行人基本面、市场情况、同行业上市公司估值水平、募集资金需求及承销风险等因素，协商确定本次H股发行价每股80.00港元。H股首次公开发售的发售股份数目1,670,706,000股H股（视乎H股超额配股权行使与否而定）。H股将以每手50股H股进行买卖，H股的股份代号为6688。预期将于2020年10月27日（星期二）上午九时正开始香港公开发售，于2020年11月5日（星期四）上午九时正开始于香港联交所买卖。A股科创板发行价格为68.80元/股。公告内容显示，按本次发行价格68.80元/股计算，A股超额配售选择权行使前，预计发行人募集资金总额为1,149.45亿元；若A股超额配售选择权全额行使，预计发行人募集资金总额为1,321.86亿元。根据蚂蚁集团上市发行方案，按照1：1的首发规模，蚂蚁将分别在A股和H股发行不超过16.7亿股的新股，A+H发行的新股数量合计不超过发行后（绿鞋前）公司总股本的11%。若A股超额配售选择权全额行使，则A股发行总股数将扩大至不超过19.21亿股。其中，在A股的初始战略配售股票数13.4亿股，占A股初始发行量80%，创科创板历史纪录。同时，蚂蚁集团公布战略配售结果，天猫获配金额502.24亿元，淡马锡、阿布达比投资局等多家机构均获配14.76亿元。根据中金、摩根士丹利、花旗、摩根大通等主要投行的盈利预测，蚂蚁未来两年（2022年）预期市盈率仅24倍。蚂蚁集团沪港两地上市募资额为345亿美元，超过沙特阿美创下的294亿美元的纪录，创有史以来最大规模IPO纪录。阿里巴巴集团表示：诚如先前于2020年10月21日所公布，作为A股发行中向战略投资者配售的一部分，阿里巴巴已同意认购7.3亿股蚂蚁集团A股股份。按发行价每股人民币68.80元计，认购事项的总对价为约人民币502亿元。基于认购7.3亿股A股股份，本次发行后阿里巴巴预期将持有蚂蚁集团约31.8%的股权，或31.2%的股权（若承销商悉数行使选择权认购A股发行及H股发行项下的额外股份）。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303613542,"gmtCreate":1603117843386,"gmtModify":1703828744276,"author":{"id":"3492925001355238","authorId":"3492925001355238","name":"东方雨木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b457fb5f4c1f9f5a251ccd1cb599465","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492925001355238","authorIdStr":"3492925001355238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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