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东方雨木
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东方雨木
2020-06-16
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
就算合并也不太看好,完全被短视频和B站压住
东方雨木
2020-09-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
韭月韭日,亿山顶兄弟。同在股市为韭菜,每逢崩盘倍思君。遥知兄弟套高处,遍寻天台少一人。[笑哭] [笑哭]
东方雨木
2020-06-03
$跟谁学(GSX)$
空头的钱快到我碗里来[贱笑] [贱笑]
东方雨木
2020-08-05
$斗鱼(DOYU)$
已空,合并了也不是破站快手的对手,闹呢
东方雨木
2020-12-02
$蔚来(NIO)$
多头呢?不叫嚣了?[笑哭] [笑哭]
东方雨木
2020-02-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
昨晚在犹豫抄谁,结果捡到个大礼包
东方雨木
2020-11-16
$蔚来(NIO)$
快跑,跑了就是赚了,以后再接回来[贱笑] [贱笑] 。其实我早跑了[贱笑] [贱笑]
东方雨木
2020-11-16
$京东(JD)$
这财报,被多多吊打${{941d0fd0016d47728b2b9a3d74a45d23}}
东方雨木
2020-07-09
$蔚来(NIO)$
涨了这么多,要调整一下了
东方雨木
2020-09-15
$跟谁学(GSX)$
继续持有[贱笑]
东方雨木
2020-09-08
$蔚来(NIO)$
今晚红不了,洗洗睡吧
东方雨木
2020-07-14
$蔚来(NIO)$
快跑,蔚来的技术和特斯拉还是差很远的,醒醒
东方雨木
2020-05-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
撤了,短期内应该徘徊调整了
东方雨木
2020-03-11
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
老子不卖,就永远不会亏,有本事你把特斯拉跌没了
东方雨木
2020-10-19
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
想比谁都慢,跌比谁都快[笑哭] [笑哭]
东方雨木
2020-08-27
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
看到6000亿,不过分吧
东方雨木
2020-07-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
这节奏就对了
东方雨木
2020-06-19
$蔚来(NIO)$
来个百亿不过分吧
东方雨木
2020-04-02
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
还没出多少出比较好[开心] [开心]
东方雨木
2020-10-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
盘前就很热闹
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Text":"没抓住重点,现在最大的问题是年轻人不愿意生了,而不是75,80后不愿意生。一胎都没有,何谈二胎三胎[笑哭] ","listText":"没抓住重点,现在最大的问题是年轻人不愿意生了,而不是75,80后不愿意生。一胎都没有,何谈二胎三胎[笑哭] ","text":"没抓住重点,现在最大的问题是年轻人不愿意生了,而不是75,80后不愿意生。一胎都没有,何谈二胎三胎[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694963093","repostId":"2202474322","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2202474322","pubTimestamp":1641773116,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2202474322?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-10 08:05","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"任泽平:建议央行多印2万亿,用10年鼓励多生5000万孩子","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2202474322","media":"市场资讯","summary":"任泽平团队发表《解决低生育的办法找到了——中国生育报告》一文。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月10日凌晨,任泽平团队在泽平宏观微信公众号发表《解决低生育的办法找到了——中国生育报告》一文,文章认为推出鼓励生育基金刻不容缓,建议央行多印2万亿,对每孩每月给予现金奖励,用10年鼓励社会多生5000万孩子。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c8b731b4b65802dc17dd5c1650ab0fb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>1、尽快建立鼓励生育基金,央行多印2万亿,用10年社会多生5000万孩子,解决人口老龄化少子化问题,让未来更有活力,而且不增加<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>、企业和地方负担,我们研究认为现在只有这个办法最务实有效可行。</p><p>根据调查显示,低生育的主要原因是生养孩子成本太高、房价太高,占比分别为41.5%、27.2%,因此降低生育养育成本是主要出路,建立鼓励生育基金的支持率高达66.5%。</p><p>建立鼓励生育基金,短期有助于稳增长、拉动内需,长期有助于改善供给侧、优化人口结构、提升社会活力、提高长期经济潜在增长率、助力民族复兴。功在当代,立在千秋。</p><p>推出鼓励生育基金刻不容缓。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cef87af1a6d731d40301646dd8654b1\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"925\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/572519a549a9732836a0a321dd7d27e8\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2、中国正面临世界上最严峻的老龄化少子化挑战,“低生育率陷阱”。中国人口形势概括讲,老龄化比其他国家更快,少子化比其他国家更低。</p><p>有证据表明,2021年生育率将进一步降低到1.1左右,比欧美发达国家还低50%多,出生人口可能降至1000万左右。如果政策不做大力度调整,中国将在几十年内成为老龄化程度和人口萎缩最严重的国家之一。</p><p>看看全球的总和生育率数据,欧洲是1.6,北美洲是1.8,拉丁美洲是2,大洋洲2.4,亚洲2.2,中国1.1,日本1.34,非洲是4,穆斯林国家是3.6。大家可以想一想,未来100年这个世界会发生什么?</p><p>中国在2020年生育率仅为1.3,比日本更低,全年仅出生1200万人,出生率创有记录以来最低水平。如果总和生育率降至1.0,相当于一代人之后人口规模少一半,到2100年,新出生人口只有179万,还不到美国新出生人口的一半。人口老龄化少子化将深远影响中国经济增长潜力、创新活力、抚养负担、民众幸福指数乃至民族复兴。</p><p>放开并鼓励生育为什么重要?1962-1976年,是婴儿潮和人口红利来源,今年46-60岁了。中国过去40年高增长主要是人口红利、改革红利和全球化红利叠加。</p><p>跳出“低生育率陷阱”,一般性的温和政策于事无补,必须出台大力度措施,放大招。</p><p>3、根据发达国家经验,鼓励生育资金大部分来自中央政府,地方政府提供额外补贴,设立专门机构建立鼓励生育体系。大多数的研究发现,定期的现金补贴对于生育的影响有正向作用。</p><p>当前最重要的是由中央和地方政府设立“鼓励生育基金”,从根本上解决地方政府没钱、企业和个人负担过重的问题,支持生育家庭现金补贴、个税抵扣、企业所得税减免、购房租房补贴、建设托儿所等,这在OECD国家行之有效、能够改善生育率。设计可以参考棚户区改造工程和央行碳减排支持工具,最终由央行印钱,不增加地方政府赤字和企业负担,让更多的年轻人生得起、养得起、敢生。</p><p>过去我们印钞票刺激房地产,留下高房价。如果转变为印钞票鼓励生育,将在未来留下一批年轻人,为爱而生,酝酿下一个希望,生就对了。</p><p>4、一定要抓住75-85年还能生的时间窗口,抓紧出台鼓励生育基金,再不出台就晚了,不要指望90后00后。我国育龄妇女正在以每年300万-400万的速度在下降。</p><p>原因也很简单,就是75年-85年的这批人还有多子多福的生育观念,而90后和00后不要说生二胎或者三胎,很多人甚至连结婚都不愿意。</p><p>根据数据显示,2018年我国的单身成年人口还有2.4亿,其中处于独居状态的就有7200万人,预计到2021年这一数据可能会涨至9200万人。除此之外从2013年起我国的新婚登记人口人数也是一年不如一年,2020年年新婚登记人数只有813万对。所以,想要鼓励生三胎还是要看75年-85年的这批人。</p><p>5、这些年,我们呼吁新基建、放开三孩、新房改等。做有温度、有情怀、有责任的研究。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n任泽平:建议央行多印2万亿,用10年鼓励多生5000万孩子\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-10 08:05 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2022-01-10/doc-ikyakumx9361367.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1月10日凌晨,任泽平团队在泽平宏观微信公众号发表《解决低生育的办法找到了——中国生育报告》一文,文章认为推出鼓励生育基金刻不容缓,建议央行多印2万亿,对每孩每月给予现金奖励,用10年鼓励社会多生5000万孩子。1、尽快建立鼓励生育基金,央行多印2万亿,用10年社会多生5000万孩子,解决人口老龄化少子化问题,让未来更有活力,而且不增加老百姓、企业和地方负担,我们研究认为现在只有这个办法最务实有效...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2022-01-10/doc-ikyakumx9361367.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a957d1c33b9f0ccda7a601b3fbd9ec8e","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2022-01-10/doc-ikyakumx9361367.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2202474322","content_text":"1月10日凌晨,任泽平团队在泽平宏观微信公众号发表《解决低生育的办法找到了——中国生育报告》一文,文章认为推出鼓励生育基金刻不容缓,建议央行多印2万亿,对每孩每月给予现金奖励,用10年鼓励社会多生5000万孩子。1、尽快建立鼓励生育基金,央行多印2万亿,用10年社会多生5000万孩子,解决人口老龄化少子化问题,让未来更有活力,而且不增加老百姓、企业和地方负担,我们研究认为现在只有这个办法最务实有效可行。根据调查显示,低生育的主要原因是生养孩子成本太高、房价太高,占比分别为41.5%、27.2%,因此降低生育养育成本是主要出路,建立鼓励生育基金的支持率高达66.5%。建立鼓励生育基金,短期有助于稳增长、拉动内需,长期有助于改善供给侧、优化人口结构、提升社会活力、提高长期经济潜在增长率、助力民族复兴。功在当代,立在千秋。推出鼓励生育基金刻不容缓。2、中国正面临世界上最严峻的老龄化少子化挑战,“低生育率陷阱”。中国人口形势概括讲,老龄化比其他国家更快,少子化比其他国家更低。有证据表明,2021年生育率将进一步降低到1.1左右,比欧美发达国家还低50%多,出生人口可能降至1000万左右。如果政策不做大力度调整,中国将在几十年内成为老龄化程度和人口萎缩最严重的国家之一。看看全球的总和生育率数据,欧洲是1.6,北美洲是1.8,拉丁美洲是2,大洋洲2.4,亚洲2.2,中国1.1,日本1.34,非洲是4,穆斯林国家是3.6。大家可以想一想,未来100年这个世界会发生什么?中国在2020年生育率仅为1.3,比日本更低,全年仅出生1200万人,出生率创有记录以来最低水平。如果总和生育率降至1.0,相当于一代人之后人口规模少一半,到2100年,新出生人口只有179万,还不到美国新出生人口的一半。人口老龄化少子化将深远影响中国经济增长潜力、创新活力、抚养负担、民众幸福指数乃至民族复兴。放开并鼓励生育为什么重要?1962-1976年,是婴儿潮和人口红利来源,今年46-60岁了。中国过去40年高增长主要是人口红利、改革红利和全球化红利叠加。跳出“低生育率陷阱”,一般性的温和政策于事无补,必须出台大力度措施,放大招。3、根据发达国家经验,鼓励生育资金大部分来自中央政府,地方政府提供额外补贴,设立专门机构建立鼓励生育体系。大多数的研究发现,定期的现金补贴对于生育的影响有正向作用。当前最重要的是由中央和地方政府设立“鼓励生育基金”,从根本上解决地方政府没钱、企业和个人负担过重的问题,支持生育家庭现金补贴、个税抵扣、企业所得税减免、购房租房补贴、建设托儿所等,这在OECD国家行之有效、能够改善生育率。设计可以参考棚户区改造工程和央行碳减排支持工具,最终由央行印钱,不增加地方政府赤字和企业负担,让更多的年轻人生得起、养得起、敢生。过去我们印钞票刺激房地产,留下高房价。如果转变为印钞票鼓励生育,将在未来留下一批年轻人,为爱而生,酝酿下一个希望,生就对了。4、一定要抓住75-85年还能生的时间窗口,抓紧出台鼓励生育基金,再不出台就晚了,不要指望90后00后。我国育龄妇女正在以每年300万-400万的速度在下降。原因也很简单,就是75年-85年的这批人还有多子多福的生育观念,而90后和00后不要说生二胎或者三胎,很多人甚至连结婚都不愿意。根据数据显示,2018年我国的单身成年人口还有2.4亿,其中处于独居状态的就有7200万人,预计到2021年这一数据可能会涨至9200万人。除此之外从2013年起我国的新婚登记人口人数也是一年不如一年,2020年年新婚登记人数只有813万对。所以,想要鼓励生三胎还是要看75年-85年的这批人。5、这些年,我们呼吁新基建、放开三孩、新房改等。做有温度、有情怀、有责任的研究。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383329181,"gmtCreate":1612840562643,"gmtModify":1703765705451,"author":{"id":"3492925001355238","authorId":"3492925001355238","name":"东方雨木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b457fb5f4c1f9f5a251ccd1cb599465","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492925001355238","authorIdStr":"3492925001355238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈,现在还有人说比特币毫无价值,不知道说啥[捂脸] 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蚂蚁定价80港元每股,周二公开发售,11月5日上市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-10-26 19:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>10月26日晚间消息,蚂蚁集团公布:发行人和联席主承销商根据初步询价结果,综合考虑发行人基本面、市场情况、同行业上市公司估值水平、募集资金需求及承销风险等因素,协商确定本次<b>H股发行价每股80.00港元</b>。H股首次公开发售的发售股份数目1,670,706,000股H股(视乎H股超额配股权行使与否而定)。</p><p>H股将以每手50股H股进行买卖,H股的股份代号为6688。<b>预期将于2020年10月27日(星期二)上午九时正开始香港公开发售,于2020年11月5日(星期四)上午九时正开始于香港联交所买卖</b>。</p><p>A股科创板发行价格为68.80元/股。公告内容显示,按本次发行价格68.80元/股计算,A股超额配售选择权行使前,预计发行人募集资金总额为1,149.45亿元;若A股超额配售选择权全额行使,预计发行人募集资金总额为1,321.86亿元。</p><p>根据蚂蚁集团上市发行方案,按照1:1的首发规模,蚂蚁将分别在A股和H股发行不超过16.7亿股的新股,A+H发行的新股数量合计不超过发行后(绿鞋前)公司总股本的11%。若A股超额配售选择权全额行使,则A股发行总股数将扩大至不超过19.21亿股。其中,在A股的初始战略配售股票数13.4亿股,占A股初始发行量80%,创科创板历史纪录。</p><p>同时,蚂蚁集团公布战略配售结果,天猫获配金额502.24亿元,淡马锡、阿布达比投资局等多家机构均获配14.76亿元。</p><p>根据中金、摩根士丹利、花旗、摩根大通等主要投行的盈利预测,蚂蚁未来两年(2022年)预期市盈率仅24倍。</p><p><b>蚂蚁集团沪港两地上市募资额为345亿美元,超过沙特阿美创下的294亿美元的纪录,创有史以来最大规模IPO纪录</b>。</p><p>阿里巴巴集团表示:诚如先前于2020年10月21日所公布,作为A股发行中向战略投资者配售的一部分,阿里巴巴已同意认购7.3亿股蚂蚁集团A股股份。按发行价每股人民币68.80元计,认购事项的总对价为约人民币502亿元。</p><p>基于认购7.3亿股A股股份,本次发行后阿里巴巴预期将持有蚂蚁集团约31.8%的股权,或31.2%的股权(若承销商悉数行使选择权认购A股发行及H股发行项下的额外股份)。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92890b55f8b70709c23ff81ddac0242d","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","06688":"蚂蚁集团"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192003015","content_text":"10月26日晚间消息,蚂蚁集团公布:发行人和联席主承销商根据初步询价结果,综合考虑发行人基本面、市场情况、同行业上市公司估值水平、募集资金需求及承销风险等因素,协商确定本次H股发行价每股80.00港元。H股首次公开发售的发售股份数目1,670,706,000股H股(视乎H股超额配股权行使与否而定)。H股将以每手50股H股进行买卖,H股的股份代号为6688。预期将于2020年10月27日(星期二)上午九时正开始香港公开发售,于2020年11月5日(星期四)上午九时正开始于香港联交所买卖。A股科创板发行价格为68.80元/股。公告内容显示,按本次发行价格68.80元/股计算,A股超额配售选择权行使前,预计发行人募集资金总额为1,149.45亿元;若A股超额配售选择权全额行使,预计发行人募集资金总额为1,321.86亿元。根据蚂蚁集团上市发行方案,按照1:1的首发规模,蚂蚁将分别在A股和H股发行不超过16.7亿股的新股,A+H发行的新股数量合计不超过发行后(绿鞋前)公司总股本的11%。若A股超额配售选择权全额行使,则A股发行总股数将扩大至不超过19.21亿股。其中,在A股的初始战略配售股票数13.4亿股,占A股初始发行量80%,创科创板历史纪录。同时,蚂蚁集团公布战略配售结果,天猫获配金额502.24亿元,淡马锡、阿布达比投资局等多家机构均获配14.76亿元。根据中金、摩根士丹利、花旗、摩根大通等主要投行的盈利预测,蚂蚁未来两年(2022年)预期市盈率仅24倍。蚂蚁集团沪港两地上市募资额为345亿美元,超过沙特阿美创下的294亿美元的纪录,创有史以来最大规模IPO纪录。阿里巴巴集团表示:诚如先前于2020年10月21日所公布,作为A股发行中向战略投资者配售的一部分,阿里巴巴已同意认购7.3亿股蚂蚁集团A股股份。按发行价每股人民币68.80元计,认购事项的总对价为约人民币502亿元。基于认购7.3亿股A股股份,本次发行后阿里巴巴预期将持有蚂蚁集团约31.8%的股权,或31.2%的股权(若承销商悉数行使选择权认购A股发行及H股发行项下的额外股份)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303613542,"gmtCreate":1603117843386,"gmtModify":1703828744276,"author":{"id":"3492925001355238","authorId":"3492925001355238","name":"东方雨木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b457fb5f4c1f9f5a251ccd1cb599465","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492925001355238","authorIdStr":"3492925001355238"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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