Shinning的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Shinning

Shinning

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：海外

75关注

2粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2022-10-28

净利润下降80个点，为啥还猛涨

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-10-12

花街风向得反着理解

2021年的涨幅被抹去，英伟达将何去何从？

2022-10-03

目标价格怎么估算出的

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-10-03

88咋来的？拍脑袋？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-09-02

没有什么可类比的完全风马牛不相及

英伟达未来会怎么走，22年前的思科就已经揭晓了答案？

2021-01-22

$跟谁学(GSX)$两头收割，远离

2021-01-13

$跟谁学(GSX)$今天为啥涨啊

2021-01-06

$Zoom(ZM)$价值回归

2020-12-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$割肉止损，远离此股。改用futu

2020-12-01

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$为啥不能做空

2020-12-01

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$奇怪为啥不能做空

2020-11-30

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$现在能做空了吧

2020-11-28

$蔚来(NIO)$强弩之末

2020-07-13

现在还能追涨吗？

2020-07-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$落袋为安了先

2020-04-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$千万别信目标价

2020-04-14

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$很难想象是从300跌下来的

2020-03-19

补仓，坚定持有

2020-03-17

$英伟达(NVDA)$抄点底

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3476697024229112","uuid":"3476697024229112","gmtCreate":1513603003258,"gmtModify":1662132596016,"name":"Shinning","pinyin":"shinning","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":75,"tweetSize":20,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":4,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.06.11","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"93.09%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.73%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"海外","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":665372481,"gmtCreate":1666968884943,"gmtModify":1666968887951,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"净利润下降80个点，为啥还猛涨","listText":"净利润下降80个点，为啥还猛涨","text":"净利润下降80个点，为啥还猛涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665372481","repostId":"2278046136","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666600948,"gmtCreate":1665579339484,"gmtModify":1665579340652,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"花街风向得反着理解","listText":"花街风向得反着理解","text":"花街风向得反着理解","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666600948","repostId":"1193463903","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193463903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665573001,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193463903?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-12 19:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2021年的涨幅被抹去，英伟达将何去何从？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193463903","media":"华尔街大事件","summary":"在高增长预期的支撑下，英伟达在2021年经历了一次里程碑式的上涨。虽然目前半导体业务利润丰厚，但我认为这种情况不会持续下去，而且全球半导体需求的重大缺口已经开始显现。战术上，我认为英伟达应该反弹，但不","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在高增长预期的支撑下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>在2021年经历了一次里程碑式的上涨。</p><p>虽然目前半导体业务利润丰厚，但我认为这种情况不会持续下去，而且全球半导体需求的重大缺口已经开始显现。</p><p>战术上，我认为英伟达应该反弹，但不要被愚弄，仍然有很大的下行空间。</p><p>英伟达在2021年享受了一次大规模的上涨，但随着5年业绩向行业平均水平靠拢，这一涨幅在2022年已被完全抹去。而且这里仍有运行空间，我认为英伟达还有大量的下行空间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da2837ffd7af1e7ff1e70c7bc6e445a1\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Google Finance</p><p><b>商品价格/宏观</b></p><p>我在之前的文章中已经广泛地讨论过这个话题，但在这里我将重新讨论经济衰退的情况(参见经济衰退是不可避免的，不要被熊市反弹所欺骗)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51fd84d90078b2507a5d5a056f963867\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe30bb01fa7c147b7cd8bae0c9d80197\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>紧缩的财政和货币政策将同时对全球经济造成双重打击。尽管利率已经重新定价(尽管目前还不清楚这一趋势是否已经结束)，但财政赤字将在2022年大幅下降，并可能在2023年进一步下降。</p><p>此外，资产负债表的缩减才刚刚开始，并将在未来10个月缩减1万亿美元。再加上收益率曲线严重反转，基本上可以肯定未来12-18个月将出现衰退(而且可能会更快，因为住房、大宗商品和其他耐用品(如汽车)等关键行业的需求似乎已经大幅下降)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b8a94484d3203a200d30fa5607364f6\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>McKinsey &amp; Company</p><p>全球半导体市场规模巨大，而且还在不断增长。预计大部分增长将由计算和数据存储、无线通信和汽车电子产品驱动。</p><p>不幸的是，这些行业没有一个是不衰退的，特别是电动车的需求在未来12个月内应该会受到衰退风的影响。</p><p>人工智能和云计算领域的应用将推动计算和数据存储需求增长，这两个领域是由研发驱动的，随着利润率下降和企业寻求去杠杆化，它们对成本削减措施也很敏感。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9919d8e2a1c4e40595d52b1fb6ed1d2\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>由于通胀压力持续存在，半导体PPI仍然保持在一个较高的水平。</p><p>总体而言，半导体价格随着时间的推移呈下降趋势，因为效率的提高使得用更少的资源获得了更大的计算能力。</p><p>我认为，随着全球需求开始下降，这一趋势将恢复正常，行业将回到通缩状态。</p><p>过去一周，随着Snlf和AMD发布了令人失望的财报，这种情况已经开始显现。虽然TSM公布了强劲的业绩，但对他们来说，需求的下降很可能还没有完全变成现实。</p><p>我还认为，PC和游戏的市场份额将继续下降，因为智能手机的需求将相对更具弹性，这对英伟达造成了伤害，因为他们更专注于这些类别。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db9b5ba6d0a373fd2a6080cb399e4120\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbbe80f15b96f13ad472fc286bc7ccb9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FRED</p><p>关注汽车需求，2021年新车和二手车价格上涨的幅度都是历史性的。</p><p>从1995年到2020年的25年里，这两个指数基本持平，然后在2021年增长了20%以上(二手车增长了近50%)，原因是低利率和在家工作的趋势。</p><p>汽车销售(和其他耐用消费品一样)对利率上调非常敏感(鲍威尔自己在6月的国会证词中也说过这一点)，这些销售很可能出现大幅的均值回归。</p><p>需求破坏已经开始被反映在价格中，福特下调了销售预期，Carmax公布第二季度新车和二手车销量大幅下降等等。我认为，成长型投资者低估了增长预期下降可能对估值造成的损害。尽管英伟达在过去一年遭受了严重的惩罚，但我相信，高点即将重现。</p><p><b>领域扩张</b></p><p>英伟达在GTC上启动了他们最新的即将到来的产品周期，专注于游戏、工作站和数据中心AI的升级产品。</p><p>游戏销售额大幅下降至13亿至25亿美元——尽管管理层将此归咎于为发烧友清理上一代高端安培GPU库存的努力，但很明显，游戏需求正在大幅下降，因为这一类别具有高度的可自由支配性，很可能在早期受到广泛衰退的影响。</p><p>事实上，管理层目前专注于扩展的几乎所有类别——AI /元宇宙、数字双胞胎、ADAS和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>都依赖于研发和创新来驱动增长，随着2023年研发预算的削减，这些领域的需求可能会大幅下降。</p><p>我认为这种逆风将在短期内拖累该股。管理层声称，他们能够在不受限制的产品供应中提供足够多的替代选择，如果受到限制，他们有能力申请许可证。</p><p>我确实认为英伟达的垂直整合提供了一些竞争优势。管理层认为，需要将加速计算垂直集成为一个全堆栈计算问题，以便编写操作系统或云企业分布式操作系统、运行时引擎、库应用框架或开发存储、网络和网络安全。</p><p>他们的观点是，没有客户只是购买芯片，他们需要英伟达计算堆栈来提高速度和效率。英伟达有几个垂直平台，如其图形堆栈、AI、物理和射线跟踪引擎、科学计算堆栈、NVIDIA AI和NVIDIA Omniverse。</p><p>同时，我认为英伟达的“飞轮”还没有完全固化，他们的核心业务仍然面临竞争压力。</p><p>在即将到来的经济衰退中，我认为它们将无法获得可观的市场份额，市场似乎也认同这一点，因为它们在行业中的相对优势正在减弱。</p><p><b>估值</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6feac3a3dd7e6b1b697dc3e926d1e9e\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"175\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>显然，自2008年金融危机以来，情况发生了很大变化，但有趣的是，在2008年金融危机最严重的时候，英伟达的EV/EBITDA倍数一路降至3倍以下。</p><p>虽然英伟达的市盈率已经从2021年的泡沫高点(从88倍下降到27倍)下降了50多个周期，但它仍然相对符合之前的估值。</p><p>在我看来，市场对半导体需求仍然过于乐观，因为半导体需求的增长是由高度周期性的投入驱动的。我认为，英伟达的盈利能力和市盈率还有进一步下降的空间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8544464c335048ca33796adb97412578\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Research Model - Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (Proprietary)</p><p>从研究模型来看，分析师对增长预期过于乐观(他们与管理层的预期大致一致)。分析人士预计，2023年收入将稳步增长，利润率将高于2022年，这是一种价格低廉，需求强劲的情景。我认为这两种期望都是有缺陷的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5878de67965dc8d0131db43caf568466\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"165\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>2009年，营运利润转为负值，直到2012年，盈利能力才稳定在衰退前的水平。我认为，在未来几年，盈利能力可能会出现类似的下降。</p><p>随着市场对衰退的担忧加剧，这将以进一步多重收缩的形式实现。虽然出售的黄金时间显然是在2022年初，但我们仍然没有看到这个领域的痛苦。</p><p><b>交易</b></p><p>客观地说，英伟达的图表看起来很可怕，考虑到2021年上涨的幅度，甚至无法完成第二次测试第四季度的高点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec2ec836aa7c441c30a7c44bc000a21\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Google Finance</p><p>在前期高点和目前的价格水平之间，我看不到另一个主要的支撑水平。我相信一旦这个支撑位被打破(这将与更广泛的市场抛售相一致)，英伟达可能会从当前水平下跌20%以上。要达到先前的73美元高点，英伟达需要进一步下跌37%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe31072d95aaa9d07ff8ec01467123a\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"148\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Market Chameleon</p><p>从战术上讲，我确实认为英伟达是短期超卖，在不久的将来会反弹。</p><p>隐含波动率息差远高于250日平均水平。一般来说，市场现在是超卖的，在进一步下跌之前会有一些反弹。</p><p><b>结论</b></p><p>总之，英伟达在过去五年中经历了大幅增长，并在2021年达到顶峰。</p><p>虽然该公司利润丰厚(尽管存在一些成本阻力)，但我认为，营收增长和盈利能力将大幅下降(大大超过管理层和分析师的预期)。</p><p>再加上相对于全球金融危机时的低点而言，英伟达的倍数仍然很高，我认为英伟达极有可能重新测试暴跌前的高点。</p></body></html>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021年的涨幅被抹去，英伟达将何去何从？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021年的涨幅被抹去，英伟达将何去何从？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-12 19:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rtEdg_Rpbm6Uxa9FMVRlCw><strong>华尔街大事件</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在高增长预期的支撑下，英伟达在2021年经历了一次里程碑式的上涨。虽然目前半导体业务利润丰厚，但我认为这种情况不会持续下去，而且全球半导体需求的重大缺口已经开始显现。战术上，我认为英伟达应该反弹，但不要被愚弄，仍然有很大的下行空间。英伟达在2021年享受了一次大规模的上涨，但随着5年业绩向行业平均水平靠拢，这一涨幅在2022年已被完全抹去。而且这里仍有运行空间，我认为英伟达还有大量的下行空间。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rtEdg_Rpbm6Uxa9FMVRlCw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4543":"AI","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rtEdg_Rpbm6Uxa9FMVRlCw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1193463903","content_text":"在高增长预期的支撑下，英伟达在2021年经历了一次里程碑式的上涨。虽然目前半导体业务利润丰厚，但我认为这种情况不会持续下去，而且全球半导体需求的重大缺口已经开始显现。战术上，我认为英伟达应该反弹，但不要被愚弄，仍然有很大的下行空间。英伟达在2021年享受了一次大规模的上涨，但随着5年业绩向行业平均水平靠拢，这一涨幅在2022年已被完全抹去。而且这里仍有运行空间，我认为英伟达还有大量的下行空间。Google Finance商品价格/宏观我在之前的文章中已经广泛地讨论过这个话题，但在这里我将重新讨论经济衰退的情况(参见经济衰退是不可避免的，不要被熊市反弹所欺骗)。FREDFRED紧缩的财政和货币政策将同时对全球经济造成双重打击。尽管利率已经重新定价(尽管目前还不清楚这一趋势是否已经结束)，但财政赤字将在2022年大幅下降，并可能在2023年进一步下降。此外，资产负债表的缩减才刚刚开始，并将在未来10个月缩减1万亿美元。再加上收益率曲线严重反转，基本上可以肯定未来12-18个月将出现衰退(而且可能会更快，因为住房、大宗商品和其他耐用品(如汽车)等关键行业的需求似乎已经大幅下降)。McKinsey & Company全球半导体市场规模巨大，而且还在不断增长。预计大部分增长将由计算和数据存储、无线通信和汽车电子产品驱动。不幸的是，这些行业没有一个是不衰退的，特别是电动车的需求在未来12个月内应该会受到衰退风的影响。人工智能和云计算领域的应用将推动计算和数据存储需求增长，这两个领域是由研发驱动的，随着利润率下降和企业寻求去杠杆化，它们对成本削减措施也很敏感。FRED由于通胀压力持续存在，半导体PPI仍然保持在一个较高的水平。总体而言，半导体价格随着时间的推移呈下降趋势，因为效率的提高使得用更少的资源获得了更大的计算能力。我认为，随着全球需求开始下降，这一趋势将恢复正常，行业将回到通缩状态。过去一周，随着Snlf和AMD发布了令人失望的财报，这种情况已经开始显现。虽然TSM公布了强劲的业绩，但对他们来说，需求的下降很可能还没有完全变成现实。我还认为，PC和游戏的市场份额将继续下降，因为智能手机的需求将相对更具弹性，这对英伟达造成了伤害，因为他们更专注于这些类别。FREDFRED关注汽车需求，2021年新车和二手车价格上涨的幅度都是历史性的。从1995年到2020年的25年里，这两个指数基本持平，然后在2021年增长了20%以上(二手车增长了近50%)，原因是低利率和在家工作的趋势。汽车销售(和其他耐用消费品一样)对利率上调非常敏感(鲍威尔自己在6月的国会证词中也说过这一点)，这些销售很可能出现大幅的均值回归。需求破坏已经开始被反映在价格中，福特下调了销售预期，Carmax公布第二季度新车和二手车销量大幅下降等等。我认为，成长型投资者低估了增长预期下降可能对估值造成的损害。尽管英伟达在过去一年遭受了严重的惩罚，但我相信，高点即将重现。领域扩张英伟达在GTC上启动了他们最新的即将到来的产品周期，专注于游戏、工作站和数据中心AI的升级产品。游戏销售额大幅下降至13亿至25亿美元——尽管管理层将此归咎于为发烧友清理上一代高端安培GPU库存的努力，但很明显，游戏需求正在大幅下降，因为这一类别具有高度的可自由支配性，很可能在早期受到广泛衰退的影响。事实上，管理层目前专注于扩展的几乎所有类别——AI /元宇宙、数字双胞胎、ADAS和机器人都依赖于研发和创新来驱动增长，随着2023年研发预算的削减，这些领域的需求可能会大幅下降。我认为这种逆风将在短期内拖累该股。管理层声称，他们能够在不受限制的产品供应中提供足够多的替代选择，如果受到限制，他们有能力申请许可证。我确实认为英伟达的垂直整合提供了一些竞争优势。管理层认为，需要将加速计算垂直集成为一个全堆栈计算问题，以便编写操作系统或云企业分布式操作系统、运行时引擎、库应用框架或开发存储、网络和网络安全。他们的观点是，没有客户只是购买芯片，他们需要英伟达计算堆栈来提高速度和效率。英伟达有几个垂直平台，如其图形堆栈、AI、物理和射线跟踪引擎、科学计算堆栈、NVIDIA AI和NVIDIA Omniverse。同时，我认为英伟达的“飞轮”还没有完全固化，他们的核心业务仍然面临竞争压力。在即将到来的经济衰退中，我认为它们将无法获得可观的市场份额，市场似乎也认同这一点，因为它们在行业中的相对优势正在减弱。估值S&P Capital IQ显然，自2008年金融危机以来，情况发生了很大变化，但有趣的是，在2008年金融危机最严重的时候，英伟达的EV/EBITDA倍数一路降至3倍以下。虽然英伟达的市盈率已经从2021年的泡沫高点(从88倍下降到27倍)下降了50多个周期，但它仍然相对符合之前的估值。在我看来，市场对半导体需求仍然过于乐观，因为半导体需求的增长是由高度周期性的投入驱动的。我认为，英伟达的盈利能力和市盈率还有进一步下降的空间。Research Model - Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (Proprietary)从研究模型来看，分析师对增长预期过于乐观(他们与管理层的预期大致一致)。分析人士预计，2023年收入将稳步增长，利润率将高于2022年，这是一种价格低廉，需求强劲的情景。我认为这两种期望都是有缺陷的。S&P Capital IQ2009年，营运利润转为负值，直到2012年，盈利能力才稳定在衰退前的水平。我认为，在未来几年，盈利能力可能会出现类似的下降。随着市场对衰退的担忧加剧，这将以进一步多重收缩的形式实现。虽然出售的黄金时间显然是在2022年初，但我们仍然没有看到这个领域的痛苦。交易客观地说，英伟达的图表看起来很可怕，考虑到2021年上涨的幅度，甚至无法完成第二次测试第四季度的高点。Google Finance在前期高点和目前的价格水平之间，我看不到另一个主要的支撑水平。我相信一旦这个支撑位被打破(这将与更广泛的市场抛售相一致)，英伟达可能会从当前水平下跌20%以上。要达到先前的73美元高点，英伟达需要进一步下跌37%。Market Chameleon从战术上讲，我确实认为英伟达是短期超卖，在不久的将来会反弹。隐含波动率息差远高于250日平均水平。一般来说，市场现在是超卖的，在进一步下跌之前会有一些反弹。结论总之，英伟达在过去五年中经历了大幅增长，并在2021年达到顶峰。虽然该公司利润丰厚(尽管存在一些成本阻力)，但我认为，营收增长和盈利能力将大幅下降(大大超过管理层和分析师的预期)。再加上相对于全球金融危机时的低点而言，英伟达的倍数仍然很高，我认为英伟达极有可能重新测试暴跌前的高点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668679051,"gmtCreate":1664726837473,"gmtModify":1664726842033,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"目标价格怎么估算出的","listText":"目标价格怎么估算出的","text":"目标价格怎么估算出的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668679051","repostId":"1185200033","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668670781,"gmtCreate":1664726775643,"gmtModify":1664726778865,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"88咋来的？拍脑袋？","listText":"88咋来的？拍脑袋？","text":"88咋来的？拍脑袋？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668670781","repostId":"1185200033","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669115958,"gmtCreate":1662131035674,"gmtModify":1662131036804,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没有什么可类比的 完全风马牛不相及","listText":"没有什么可类比的 完全风马牛不相及","text":"没有什么可类比的 完全风马牛不相及","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669115958","repostId":"1191050496","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191050496","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1662113771,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191050496?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-02 18:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达未来会怎么走，22年前的思科就已经揭晓了答案？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191050496","media":"美股研究社","summary":"今天的英伟达与 2000 年的思科之间的相似之处仍在继续。这两家公司相隔20多年，它们之间的相似之处非常显著。糟糕的结果铺平了道路英伟达糟糕的第二季度财报和第三季度业绩令人瞠目结舌，也许唯一更令人震惊","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今天的英伟达与 2000 年的思科之间的相似之处仍在继续。这两家公司相隔20多年，它们之间的相似之处非常显著。</p><p><b>糟糕的结果铺平了道路</b></p><p>英伟达糟糕的第二季度财报和第三季度业绩令人瞠目结舌，也许唯一更令人震惊的方面是第二天股价上涨。不过该公司已经预先公布了第二季度财报，因此并不意外。但在可怕的销售指导之外，令人惊讶的是疲软应收账款天数令人瞠目结舌， 应收天数高达72.2天，远高于预期的53.7天，也是十年来最高的应收账款天数。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f178a8ffe1ee14c16eb00c54472fd1f\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p>此外，未结清库存天数仍处于93.40左右的高位，这也是预料之中的，与上一季度相比略有下降，但应收账款和未清库存都是历史上非常高的数字。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93a3a87e64d639458b74082184c7e24\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p>很难用言语来形容销售指引为59 亿美元有多糟糕，比分析师的一致预期（大约69亿美元）低近15%。第三季度的预期从4月中旬的90亿美元左右下降，这使全年的收入预期从最高的349亿美元下降到272亿美元。分析师们现在认为2023财年的销售额将增长1.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1f51f339c26711d8c347b451663893\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p>由于销售预测和增长疲软，预计 2023 年收益将下降 20.6%至每股 3.53 美元。分析师认为明年的收入会反弹，攀升至约13.9%，达到310亿美元，使收益增加29%，达到4.56美元。</p><p>但在这一点上，问题可能多于答案，并且考虑到公司持有多少库存以及英伟达需要多长时间才能获得报酬，明年的前景可能不会太乐观。如果有一件事是确定的，那么今天的不确定性比90天前要高得多，这意味着，即使该股在2022年有实质性的下跌，但该股可能还远没有达到便宜的程度，其交易的PE接近35。</p><p>今天的英伟达比2021年底的时候更便宜，然而，历史上的平均PE为26.8，该股的交易倍数似乎更适合于2018年，也就是该公司上一次挣扎时的倍数，即低于20倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03dd9d14cabf4aae58d24f2e2363cec0\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p>如果该股以20倍的收益交易，英伟达的价值将是每股91.20美元，与8月29日的当前价格约 159 美元相比，有很大的折扣。</p><p><b>思科的收入也大幅下降</b></p><p>听起来很疯狂，当然，但正如我多次指出的那样，从技术和现在的基本角度来看，该股票在 2000年末的走势与思科非常相似。</p><p>我上一次关注这个问题是在4月份，当时我注意到股票可能会在最坏的情况下发生深刻的转变。当时，牛市是相对直接的，他们认为，思科最大的败笔是2000年的收入骤降，最终导致股价大幅下跌，而英伟达的定位非常不同，预期收入增长强劲。</p><p>快进几个月后，英伟达的销售估计突然急剧下降，就像2000年的思科一样。在这一点上，有一点不同的是，分析师仍然认为英伟达的销售将在未来两年内恢复。</p><p>很明显，2000 年思科的销售额在很长一段时间内都没有恢复，也许英伟达的销售会复苏，而不是跟随思科的步伐，毕竟这是一个不同的时代。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae0645848f115e2409471280547548bc\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p><b>估值的下降也是类似的</b></p><p>即使从估值的角度来看，英伟达也像2000 年的思科一样下跌，按跟踪12个月计算的价格与销售比率自高峰期以来大幅下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57458dfa359a959d4b238e2f70803282\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p>英伟达的发展方向并不是预先确定的，从长远来看，它无疑会发生转变，最终与思科不同。这并不是说英伟达的股票会像思科那样在未来22年内停滞不前。但值得注意的是，这两只股票和基本面之间的相似性令人瞠目结舌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32b459c7fcc7de9b7f8d4e392786d34a\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p><b>结语</b></p><p>根据2000年思科的发展路径，英伟达的下一次重大转变可能会在接下来的 30 天内发生，值得我们认真思考。如果30天过去了，英伟达的股价大幅走高，那么好消息是，英伟达的命运可能与思科不同，而相似之处也随之结束。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达未来会怎么走，22年前的思科就已经揭晓了答案？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达未来会怎么走，22年前的思科就已经揭晓了答案？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-02 18:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>今天的英伟达与 2000 年的思科之间的相似之处仍在继续。这两家公司相隔20多年，它们之间的相似之处非常显著。</p><p><b>糟糕的结果铺平了道路</b></p><p>英伟达糟糕的第二季度财报和第三季度业绩令人瞠目结舌，也许唯一更令人震惊的方面是第二天股价上涨。不过该公司已经预先公布了第二季度财报，因此并不意外。但在可怕的销售指导之外，令人惊讶的是疲软应收账款天数令人瞠目结舌， 应收天数高达72.2天，远高于预期的53.7天，也是十年来最高的应收账款天数。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f178a8ffe1ee14c16eb00c54472fd1f\" tg-width=\"556\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p>此外，未结清库存天数仍处于93.40左右的高位，这也是预料之中的，与上一季度相比略有下降，但应收账款和未清库存都是历史上非常高的数字。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f93a3a87e64d639458b74082184c7e24\" tg-width=\"609\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p>很难用言语来形容销售指引为59 亿美元有多糟糕，比分析师的一致预期（大约69亿美元）低近15%。第三季度的预期从4月中旬的90亿美元左右下降，这使全年的收入预期从最高的349亿美元下降到272亿美元。分析师们现在认为2023财年的销售额将增长1.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1f51f339c26711d8c347b451663893\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p>由于销售预测和增长疲软，预计 2023 年收益将下降 20.6%至每股 3.53 美元。分析师认为明年的收入会反弹，攀升至约13.9%，达到310亿美元，使收益增加29%，达到4.56美元。</p><p>但在这一点上，问题可能多于答案，并且考虑到公司持有多少库存以及英伟达需要多长时间才能获得报酬，明年的前景可能不会太乐观。如果有一件事是确定的，那么今天的不确定性比90天前要高得多，这意味着，即使该股在2022年有实质性的下跌，但该股可能还远没有达到便宜的程度，其交易的PE接近35。</p><p>今天的英伟达比2021年底的时候更便宜，然而，历史上的平均PE为26.8，该股的交易倍数似乎更适合于2018年，也就是该公司上一次挣扎时的倍数，即低于20倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03dd9d14cabf4aae58d24f2e2363cec0\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p>如果该股以20倍的收益交易，英伟达的价值将是每股91.20美元，与8月29日的当前价格约 159 美元相比，有很大的折扣。</p><p><b>思科的收入也大幅下降</b></p><p>听起来很疯狂，当然，但正如我多次指出的那样，从技术和现在的基本角度来看，该股票在 2000年末的走势与思科非常相似。</p><p>我上一次关注这个问题是在4月份，当时我注意到股票可能会在最坏的情况下发生深刻的转变。当时，牛市是相对直接的，他们认为，思科最大的败笔是2000年的收入骤降，最终导致股价大幅下跌，而英伟达的定位非常不同，预期收入增长强劲。</p><p>快进几个月后，英伟达的销售估计突然急剧下降，就像2000年的思科一样。在这一点上，有一点不同的是，分析师仍然认为英伟达的销售将在未来两年内恢复。</p><p>很明显，2000 年思科的销售额在很长一段时间内都没有恢复，也许英伟达的销售会复苏，而不是跟随思科的步伐，毕竟这是一个不同的时代。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae0645848f115e2409471280547548bc\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p><b>估值的下降也是类似的</b></p><p>即使从估值的角度来看，英伟达也像2000 年的思科一样下跌，按跟踪12个月计算的价格与销售比率自高峰期以来大幅下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57458dfa359a959d4b238e2f70803282\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p>英伟达的发展方向并不是预先确定的，从长远来看，它无疑会发生转变，最终与思科不同。这并不是说英伟达的股票会像思科那样在未来22年内停滞不前。但值得注意的是，这两只股票和基本面之间的相似性令人瞠目结舌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32b459c7fcc7de9b7f8d4e392786d34a\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>彭博新闻社</p><p><b>结语</b></p><p>根据2000年思科的发展路径，英伟达的下一次重大转变可能会在接下来的 30 天内发生，值得我们认真思考。如果30天过去了，英伟达的股价大幅走高，那么好消息是，英伟达的命运可能与思科不同，而相似之处也随之结束。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"BK4515":"5G概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4020":"通信设备","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","CSCO":"思科","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191050496","content_text":"今天的英伟达与 2000 年的思科之间的相似之处仍在继续。这两家公司相隔20多年，它们之间的相似之处非常显著。糟糕的结果铺平了道路英伟达糟糕的第二季度财报和第三季度业绩令人瞠目结舌，也许唯一更令人震惊的方面是第二天股价上涨。不过该公司已经预先公布了第二季度财报，因此并不意外。但在可怕的销售指导之外，令人惊讶的是疲软应收账款天数令人瞠目结舌， 应收天数高达72.2天，远高于预期的53.7天，也是十年来最高的应收账款天数。彭博新闻社此外，未结清库存天数仍处于93.40左右的高位，这也是预料之中的，与上一季度相比略有下降，但应收账款和未清库存都是历史上非常高的数字。彭博新闻社很难用言语来形容销售指引为59 亿美元有多糟糕，比分析师的一致预期（大约69亿美元）低近15%。第三季度的预期从4月中旬的90亿美元左右下降，这使全年的收入预期从最高的349亿美元下降到272亿美元。分析师们现在认为2023财年的销售额将增长1.2%。彭博新闻社由于销售预测和增长疲软，预计 2023 年收益将下降 20.6%至每股 3.53 美元。分析师认为明年的收入会反弹，攀升至约13.9%，达到310亿美元，使收益增加29%，达到4.56美元。但在这一点上，问题可能多于答案，并且考虑到公司持有多少库存以及英伟达需要多长时间才能获得报酬，明年的前景可能不会太乐观。如果有一件事是确定的，那么今天的不确定性比90天前要高得多，这意味着，即使该股在2022年有实质性的下跌，但该股可能还远没有达到便宜的程度，其交易的PE接近35。今天的英伟达比2021年底的时候更便宜，然而，历史上的平均PE为26.8，该股的交易倍数似乎更适合于2018年，也就是该公司上一次挣扎时的倍数，即低于20倍。彭博新闻社如果该股以20倍的收益交易，英伟达的价值将是每股91.20美元，与8月29日的当前价格约 159 美元相比，有很大的折扣。思科的收入也大幅下降听起来很疯狂，当然，但正如我多次指出的那样，从技术和现在的基本角度来看，该股票在 2000年末的走势与思科非常相似。我上一次关注这个问题是在4月份，当时我注意到股票可能会在最坏的情况下发生深刻的转变。当时，牛市是相对直接的，他们认为，思科最大的败笔是2000年的收入骤降，最终导致股价大幅下跌，而英伟达的定位非常不同，预期收入增长强劲。快进几个月后，英伟达的销售估计突然急剧下降，就像2000年的思科一样。在这一点上，有一点不同的是，分析师仍然认为英伟达的销售将在未来两年内恢复。很明显，2000 年思科的销售额在很长一段时间内都没有恢复，也许英伟达的销售会复苏，而不是跟随思科的步伐，毕竟这是一个不同的时代。彭博新闻社估值的下降也是类似的即使从估值的角度来看，英伟达也像2000 年的思科一样下跌，按跟踪12个月计算的价格与销售比率自高峰期以来大幅下降。彭博新闻社英伟达的发展方向并不是预先确定的，从长远来看，它无疑会发生转变，最终与思科不同。这并不是说英伟达的股票会像思科那样在未来22年内停滞不前。但值得注意的是，这两只股票和基本面之间的相似性令人瞠目结舌。彭博新闻社结语根据2000年思科的发展路径，英伟达的下一次重大转变可能会在接下来的 30 天内发生，值得我们认真思考。如果30天过去了，英伟达的股价大幅走高，那么好消息是，英伟达的命运可能与思科不同，而相似之处也随之结束。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310676650,"gmtCreate":1611327376870,"gmtModify":1703749782829,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>两头收割，远离","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>两头收割，远离","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$两头收割，远离","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310676650","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335174824,"gmtCreate":1610550921968,"gmtModify":1703745199922,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>今天为啥涨啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>今天为啥涨啊","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$今天为啥涨啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335174824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338490878,"gmtCreate":1609944249794,"gmtModify":1703741529252,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>价值回归","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>价值回归","text":"$Zoom(ZM)$价值回归","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338490878","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398531397,"gmtCreate":1606919384519,"gmtModify":1703845373332,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>割肉止损，远离此股。改用futu","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>割肉止损，远离此股。改用futu","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$割肉止损，远离此股。改用futu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398531397","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398330900,"gmtCreate":1606826425900,"gmtModify":1703844693678,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>为啥不能做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>为啥不能做空","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$为啥不能做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398330900","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398959717,"gmtCreate":1606819412639,"gmtModify":1703844629192,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>奇怪为啥不能做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>奇怪为啥不能做空","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$奇怪为啥不能做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398959717","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391468237,"gmtCreate":1606748587529,"gmtModify":1703844186508,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>现在能做空了吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>现在能做空了吧","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$现在能做空了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391468237","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391183568,"gmtCreate":1606497446954,"gmtModify":1703843479887,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>强弩之末","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>强弩之末","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$强弩之末","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391183568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943262703,"gmtCreate":1594643748902,"gmtModify":1704206082122,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在还能追涨吗？","listText":"现在还能追涨吗？","text":"现在还能追涨吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943262703","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":949392658,"gmtCreate":1594138232974,"gmtModify":1704204125725,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>落袋为安了先","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>落袋为安了先","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$落袋为安了先","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949392658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928754324,"gmtCreate":1586907253268,"gmtModify":1704362483697,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>千万别信目标价","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>千万别信目标价","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$千万别信目标价","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928754324","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928506052,"gmtCreate":1586812138876,"gmtModify":1704362109934,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>很难想象是从300跌下来的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>很难想象是从300跌下来的","text":"$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$很难想象是从300跌下来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928506052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967839639,"gmtCreate":1584553182621,"gmtModify":1704354989970,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"补仓，坚定持有","listText":"补仓，坚定持有","text":"补仓，坚定持有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967839639","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964244889,"gmtCreate":1584396405841,"gmtModify":1704353954273,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>抄点底","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>抄点底","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$抄点底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964244889","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":928754324,"gmtCreate":1586907253268,"gmtModify":1704362483697,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>千万别信目标价","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>千万别信目标价","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$千万别信目标价","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928754324","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335174824,"gmtCreate":1610550921968,"gmtModify":1703745199922,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>今天为啥涨啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>今天为啥涨啊","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$今天为啥涨啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335174824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398531397,"gmtCreate":1606919384519,"gmtModify":1703845373332,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>割肉止损，远离此股。改用futu","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>割肉止损，远离此股。改用futu","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$割肉止损，远离此股。改用futu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398531397","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928506052,"gmtCreate":1586812138876,"gmtModify":1704362109934,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>很难想象是从300跌下来的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLRY\">$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$</a>很难想象是从300跌下来的","text":"$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$很难想象是从300跌下来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928506052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338490878,"gmtCreate":1609944249794,"gmtModify":1703741529252,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>价值回归","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a>价值回归","text":"$Zoom(ZM)$价值回归","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338490878","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391468237,"gmtCreate":1606748587529,"gmtModify":1703844186508,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>现在能做空了吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JMIA\">$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$</a>现在能做空了吧","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$现在能做空了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391468237","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1015,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":949392658,"gmtCreate":1594138232974,"gmtModify":1704204125725,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>落袋为安了先","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>落袋为安了先","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$落袋为安了先","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949392658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310676650,"gmtCreate":1611327376870,"gmtModify":1703749782829,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>两头收割，远离","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>两头收割，远离","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$两头收割，远离","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310676650","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964244889,"gmtCreate":1584396405841,"gmtModify":1704353954273,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>抄点底","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>抄点底","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$抄点底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964244889","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":916,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391183568,"gmtCreate":1606497446954,"gmtModify":1703843479887,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>强弩之末","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>强弩之末","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$强弩之末","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391183568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665372481,"gmtCreate":1666968884943,"gmtModify":1666968887951,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"净利润下降80个点，为啥还猛涨","listText":"净利润下降80个点，为啥还猛涨","text":"净利润下降80个点，为啥还猛涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665372481","repostId":"2278046136","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666600948,"gmtCreate":1665579339484,"gmtModify":1665579340652,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"花街风向得反着理解","listText":"花街风向得反着理解","text":"花街风向得反着理解","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666600948","repostId":"1193463903","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668679051,"gmtCreate":1664726837473,"gmtModify":1664726842033,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"目标价格怎么估算出的","listText":"目标价格怎么估算出的","text":"目标价格怎么估算出的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668679051","repostId":"1185200033","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668670781,"gmtCreate":1664726775643,"gmtModify":1664726778865,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"88咋来的？拍脑袋？","listText":"88咋来的？拍脑袋？","text":"88咋来的？拍脑袋？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668670781","repostId":"1185200033","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669115958,"gmtCreate":1662131035674,"gmtModify":1662131036804,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没有什么可类比的 完全风马牛不相及","listText":"没有什么可类比的 完全风马牛不相及","text":"没有什么可类比的 完全风马牛不相及","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669115958","repostId":"1191050496","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398330900,"gmtCreate":1606826425900,"gmtModify":1703844693678,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>为啥不能做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>为啥不能做空","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$为啥不能做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398330900","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398959717,"gmtCreate":1606819412639,"gmtModify":1703844629192,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>奇怪为啥不能做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>奇怪为啥不能做空","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$奇怪为啥不能做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398959717","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943262703,"gmtCreate":1594643748902,"gmtModify":1704206082122,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在还能追涨吗？","listText":"现在还能追涨吗？","text":"现在还能追涨吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943262703","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967839639,"gmtCreate":1584553182621,"gmtModify":1704354989970,"author":{"id":"3476697024229112","authorId":"3476697024229112","name":"Shinning","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c56faba99563fb1fb3ae974cba496c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476697024229112","authorIdStr":"3476697024229112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"补仓，坚定持有","listText":"补仓，坚定持有","text":"补仓，坚定持有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967839639","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}