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库页岛梅老板

库页岛梅老板

一定要有耐心知足而乐平心静气

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库页岛梅老板

2022-04-27

$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$卷死A股

库页岛梅老板

2022-04-07

$每日优鲜(MF)$抄底

库页岛梅老板

2022-04-07

$每日优鲜(MF)$有希望

库页岛梅老板

2022-04-05

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$怎么感觉越来越没希望了

库页岛梅老板

2022-04-05

$每日优鲜(MF)$目标价2块

库页岛梅老板

2022-04-05

$每日优鲜(MF)$我猜会补涨

库页岛梅老板

2022-04-05

$铜道控股(GLG)$越过4388，冲击12002

库页岛梅老板

2022-03-15

$滴滴(DIDI)$300多万的买单，厉害了

库页岛梅老板

2022-03-14

$滴滴(DIDI)$进半仓

库页岛梅老板

2022-03-11

$滴滴(DIDI)$这……………………

库页岛梅老板

2021-07-25

核心竞争力是软件和硬件背后的数据，早入场早积累数据

猎豹移动傅盛｜「看穿」服务机器人

库页岛梅老板

2021-02-08

$游戏驿站(GME)$已经全仓了[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] ，会不会死的很惨，好紧张[保佑] [保佑] [保佑] [保佑] [保佑]

库页岛梅老板

2020-06-18

$苏轩堂(SXTC)$每天的换手率都这么高，不正常，先买半仓埋伏着

库页岛梅老板

2020-05-05

$Oragenics Inc.(OGEN)$奥利给

库页岛梅老板

2019-05-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 快下来，快下来

库页岛梅老板

2019-05-16

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 等了这么长时间终于等到心里价位了

库页岛梅老板

2019-05-07

$蔚来(NIO)$ 感觉随时会拉升，延续上周五的走势

库页岛梅老板

2019-05-03

$蔚来(NIO)$ 加仓加仓加仓

库页岛梅老板

2019-05-01

$蔚来(NIO)$ 4.66等着你

库页岛梅老板

2019-04-30

$蔚来(NIO)$ 开始准备建五层仓位

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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13:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"猎豹移动傅盛｜「看穿」服务机器人","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151157791","media":"极客公园","summary":"服务机器人的底层逻辑是什么？但因为众所周知的原因，猎豹不得已，退出营收占比超过八成的海外市场，转战国内市场，并重点布局智能服务机器人。上个月，猎豹公布了 2021 年 Q1 财报，数字看起来并不乐观，智能服务机器人业务也看似没有起色。服务机器人也是这样的。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133332758v17341hfprfuqnx\"/><p>服务<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>的底层逻辑是什么？如何给一架高速飞行中的战斗机换引擎？</p><p>这几乎是一个不可能完成的任务，但这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>正在面临的挑战。曾经作为一家成功的出海互联网公司，猎豹成功在 2014 年 5 月登录纽交所上市，市值也曾高达 50 亿美元。但因为众所周知的原因，猎豹不得已，退出营收占比超过八成的海外市场，转战国内市场，并重点布局<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>服务机器人。一边飞行，一边「换引擎」，猎豹还是太过艰难了。上个月，猎豹公布了 2021 年 Q1 财报，数字看起来并不乐观，智能服务机器人业务也看似没有起色。经历如此挫折的公司，放在国内都很少见。我们和你有同样的疑问，猎豹未来还会好吗？作为猎豹这家战斗机的「飞行员」傅盛，又在想什么？6 月底的一天，北京天气闷热。极客公园创始人&amp;CEO 张鹏和猎豹移动董事长兼 CEO 傅盛，聊了聊猎豹的情况。</p><p>出人意料的是，傅盛看起来并不焦躁，还很乐观。他认为作为公司主营业务的智能服务机器人的风口已经到来，猎豹春天在即。猎豹未来也会成为服务机器人的「蓝翔技校」，为社会提供「真有用」的机器人。以下是交流实录：</p><p><strong>从装酷到「真有用」，服务机器人的风口到来</strong></p><p><strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>我看到你们的财报情况，还是略有担忧，但今天看你的状态还挺好的。是不是财报背后还有一些我们没看见的事情，今天能不能分享一下？</strong>傅盛：财报本身当然是有很大的压力，但的确，财报背后还是有一些东西是没有被看见的。一方面，因为猎豹移动的主要业务以前是在海外，被打掉以后，我们的收入下降挺厉害。但是即便如此，我们还用了很多努力去解决。首先，我们最困难的这两年，现金储备是在增加的。其次，我们回归到国内的移动互联网业务企稳了。此外，我们在四年前就开始布局的服务机器人风口真的到了。<strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>你怎么定义「服务机器人的风口要来了」这个概念？</strong>傅盛：一方面，从最开始做产品发布的时候，我们就提出了三个字叫「真有用」，能用很低廉的价格让人去真正使用，并且能够在很多日常场景里去高频度地使用。<strong>现在，我认为技术本身已经开始成熟，成本开始急剧地下降，产品开始达到了实用、可用，而且越来越廉价化。</strong>现在我们一个服务机器人推出去价格已经可以非常便宜了，而三、四年前，可能一个服务机器人的价格就是十几、二十万。另一方面，我们客户群发生了变化，最早服务机器人更多是服务一些展厅，主要是用来装酷的。现在，我们的客户群开始变成中小餐厅，他们的<span>毛利</span>其实抠得非常细，行业很残酷，据说每年中小餐厅的<span>换手率</span>是 40%，他们却真的愿意为服务机器人买单，不是为了装酷，是为了降低成本，提高利润。而像这种中小企业也越来越多，所以我就认为服务机器人的风口是真的到了。<strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>所以你认为风口到了的核心，是整个服务机器人这件事，能够算得过账？</strong>傅盛：是的，算账其实从两个层面算，我们叫开源和节流。先说节流，比如说餐厅和商场要雇服务员。但其实今天服务员成本越来越高，而且在疫情之后，还越来越难招了。你发现但凡大一点的餐厅，它的服务员和送菜员是两个岗位。其中送菜员很难招到而且成本也不低，现在机器人完全可以替代了。它真的能够去完成，把这个菜从后厨递到桌前的这件事。这就叫节流，能够帮助餐饮企业真正地去降低它的成本。<strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>甚至我觉得这越来越会成为解决劳动力问题的办法，而不只是节流，可能前者还会更关键。</strong>傅盛：是的，全世界都是这样的，经济发展到一定程度，服务业是比工业更大的产业。但是劳动力人口的供给又在减少，科技必然是解决劳动力问题的一条途径。另一方面就是开源。我们服务机器人它是智能化的，它能够跟人去交互，把门口的客人给吸引进来，甚至把在商城里离餐厅大概几十米逛的人，给吸引进来。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133334605v17388kslyccmwy\"/><p>图片｜智能接待机器人豹小秘mini我们现在有两类机器人，其中一个叫豹小秘 mini，设计跟小朋友差不多高，小朋友特喜欢，你说跳个舞，那个机器人就跳，小朋友也跟着跳。我们一个大客户喜家德，他们在几个店里实测了三个月，每天都会把客人领进来，刚刚跟我们下了上百台的订单。而且通过这个机器人，你可以像运营一个互联网站一样来运营餐厅，打开手机小程序，点一个按钮，然后上百个机器人就能立即学会，不需要培训。而且做完以后，马上就有实时数据。<strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>除了这些，还有什么用吗？</strong>傅盛：今天猎豹移动还有线下流量业务。我们和商场合作，在全国应该有 1200 个商场，布了 12000 多台这种服务机器人。有一个数据可能是反常识的，电商在中国发展这么好，但是过去三年，除了疫情之外，整个商场的客流量是在不断增加的。而商业综合体越修越大。它面临一个问题，就是很多人进去后会晕。我们最开始就只是给这些商场里面的用户去提供问路服务。我们的豹大屏，它价格已经做得非常便宜了，可以在很多位置都放上。豹大屏今天超过一半以上的问题，都是关于商场品牌，比如说喜茶有没有、星巴克在哪儿。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133339229v173ezzbqw1685y\"/><p>图片｜商场优惠机器人豹大屏后来我们就在里面发现一个机会，帮这些商场店去引流。我们最近有个数据，在今年 6 月我们通过机器人，帮<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKW\">汉堡王</a>卖了一万个汉堡。<strong>虽然数据没那么惊人，但是充分证明一件事，智能服务机器人真正开始有用了，也逐渐被社会和用户在商场里接受了。</strong></p><p><strong>服务机器人产品设计的底层逻辑</strong></p><p><strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>智能服务机器人在设计上，有什么特殊的讲究吗？</strong></p><p>傅盛：我认为一个服务机器人要做好，其实核心不是它长得像人，而是它真的有用。我四年前就想清楚大逻辑了，服务业一定要有科技，人工智能又可以使机器有感知和交流的能力，所以这个时候用服务机器人，在市场中去找到一个高速成长的赛道，是有机会的。那时候我考察了市面上的服务机器人的厂商。当时我发现一个问题，就是这个行业走错方向了。比如，我看了一个新闻，说日本的软银 Pepper 机器人停止生产。<strong>很多人问我的看法，我就说它只是在追求像人，好像造一架飞机你非得像鸟，一定要拍着翅膀才能飞。但其实你核心的使命是飞起来，而不是一定要像鸟。</strong>我们做服务机器人，是真正能去帮助提供一些服务，提高效率，而不是它一定要长一双手，一定要脑袋是个圆的，两个眼睛。我去找过 Pepper 最初的创始产品经理，他要追求一种情感化的陪同，我说这一定搞不定。以我对人工智能技术的了解，人和人之间都解决不了的情感问题，去让机器去解决情感问题，这条路一看就肯定走不通。</p><p><strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>所以你想要去让机器人解决什么样的问题？以及如何解决的？</strong>傅盛：我想解决工具的问题。我们当时的设计就是把技术集成好，把语音交互、视觉交互、自主导航都集成在产品里。当场景真正出现的时候，我们随时可以拆出一块来，去适应这个场景。比如说我们的送餐机器人，你看它们两个脑袋是一样的（指商场优惠机器人「豹大屏」与餐厅营销服务机器人「招财豹」），底盘也是一样的，就是中间一个是放了屏幕，一个是放了货架。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133350547v1734eh10cpt60a\"/><p>图｜餐厅营销服务机器人招财豹<strong>我认为一定要找到一个大规模可复制化的产品形态和技术的整合，这样的话，你在任何场景适用的时候，不需要为每个场景单独定制。就是通用的硬件，差异化的软件。</strong>我们讲智能手机它之所以智能，不是买来就什么都能用，而是装了不同的 APP。服务机器人也是这样的。我把它叫做「每个场景都是一个 APP」。所以你看我们对餐厅就相当于做了一个餐厅 APP，对商场就做了个商场 APP。每个商场进去的时候，我们就把商场地图输入进去，把这些餐饮品牌输入进去，用户才可以交互。这样的话，就能快速实现在这些场景里落地。这也是到今天为止，我看到这个行业，我们和其他机器人公司最大的不同。<strong>张鹏：</strong>所以我觉得你这个总结挺有意思，一般新的黑科技出来，大家特别容易去抓一个有趣和酷的点，<strong>但最终你发现，从有趣到有用是特别难的一个过程。</strong><strong>你是源于什么逻辑，从在几年前，就能看到今天这个被印证的事情？</strong>傅盛：当时我觉得人工智能带来的一个很大的变化，其实是它改变了交互模式。我们回顾一下最早乔布斯说的话，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>是有幸做过几次交互模式的改变。一个是图形化界面，第二个就是手机做成每个 APP 有它自己的界面，从而舍弃了物理键盘。但是这种交互局限在于，你只能做到每个软件有它的界面，而人工智能让语音识别这件事做到高度可用以后，就使得每个人都有自己的交互模式。我们举个例子，因为不怎么会用智能手机，被人说好笨，如果用语音问机器人<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>在哪，它说我不知道，你会说这机器好笨。<strong>从交互上，这是第一次让机器在适应人，而不是人去适应机器。你完全凭着你的本能去问，它就可以实现服务。这是当时我看到人工智能语音识别带来的一个交互变革。</strong>这种交互效率的提升，使得即便在商场这样的场合，一个人都可以很自如地使用我们的机器，去达到他的目的。语音在我们商场的服务机器人里面有重要的应用。我们现在已经在 41 个城市，1200 个商场，部署了一万多台机器人，就专门给这些商场里的顾客提供问路、找店铺服务，还有一些优惠券的推荐。</p><p><strong>为什么选择服务机器人</strong></p><p><strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>为什么你没有选工业机器人的赛道，而是选服务机器人？</strong>傅盛：服务机器人和工业机器人其实是两个完全不同的品类。我也不是没有看过工业机器人这个赛道，我还专门去日本拜访过发那科（fanuc）的总部，看过它的整个产线。60 年代，发那科成立的时候，计算机还处于很早期，当时机器人本质上就是一个非常精密的一个机械产品，比如说工业机器人挥臂，从这儿转到这儿，它是不知道螺丝在这儿的，你必须设置好。机器人「robot」这个词，起源于捷克语「robota」，它就是劳动力和奴隶的意思，翻译成中文就叫机器人了，好像我们什么都拿人的属性。其实真正工业机器人就是个自动化机器，所以它对精密度要求极高，对重复使用性要求极高，今天它的难度更多的是在于机械本身。<strong>而服务机器人却是来自于机械智能化、软件定制化，还有中台服务数据的整合，这几个技术是非常跨界的，要把它真正糅合好、做好并不容易。</strong>但我不选择工业机器人，并不是因为技术好不好的问题，而是从我个人来说，这个事不激励我。工业机器人的故事模型是非常容易建立，融资也会顺利很多。但这个赛道就是这样，人家已经定义好了，你就是做得更精密，更低成本。当然，我觉得像工业机器人这样的效率型企业也很重要，是整个人类社会往前走的非常重要的基石。但总有些人应该做一些今天看不到，但未来有可能会起来，为此哪怕失败了也认的事情。所以我真正把这个逻辑想得清楚，就选择了服务机器人。<strong>张鹏：</strong>更想走个窄门，觉得这对你更有动力。但是客观地讲，任何一个新技术，从诞生到真正产生价值的过程中会有危险，这很大程度上来自于对时间尺度的误断，应该是十年成熟却判断成五年，进而导致所有的技能树都点错。而在这个过程之中，其实每一个环节都是要循序渐进地走，但因为误判，可能都撑不到它的成功点，就已经没有元气了。<strong>你当时是怎么判断关键的时间点的？</strong>傅盛：当时我的逻辑是这样的，先从一个最大的逻辑去想，就是我能不能承受失败，这个问题我认为我是想清楚的，自己是能够承受。然后再往下的逻辑就是说，服务机器人的赛道有没有可能起来，我认为是肯定能起来的。人工智能技术的出现和人口劳动力的变化，是当时就看到的。然后，产品的形态有没有可能被组合出来？我们认为也是有可能的。服务机器人涉及的技术包括硬件、软件、人工智能，再加一些服务端的数据处理，这里面除了硬件我没干过，软件和服务端数据我还是很熟的，而人工智能，大家都是一个起跑线。我觉得互联网关于数据、软件和用户体验的认知，给我干这件事情带来了优势。所以我认为就在这件事情上，我们是最有机会干出来的。所以今天你问我时间点是怎么想的，我们认为服务机器人也有自动化属性，比如递送这件事。我们做递送是比较晚的，不管是餐厅递送，还是酒店递送。因为如果这个市场没起来之前，我不需要单独做递送，我的技术都储备在这儿，等递送出来了，餐厅和酒店我们就可以做。所以，自动化属性这一部分，我认为是效率性的。<strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>它是可以被更智能的东西向下兼容？</strong>傅盛：对，比如说我们的餐厅机器人，不仅可以送餐，还可以跟你对话。它既可以送又可以招揽。甚至，每周有 20% 的客户是拿来给顾客祝贺生日的。如果只是递送本身，它是个效率性的活，比的就是谁的成本和价格更低、营销渠道的效率更高以及人均产出更好。然后不停地再加上智能型服务。小餐厅是不用递送的，但招揽基本都需要，或者更好的服务。所以，我认为智能化是能够让机器人市场变得更大。而智能化，我们今天在这个市场基本上是独一家。</p><p><strong>做服务机器人的「蓝翔技校」</strong></p><p><strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>其实这些机器人，如果我们把它当成一个劳动力去评估，它是自动化层面更容易实现，但在智能层面都还相对初级。所以在这种情况下，做服务机器人，你们是怎么形成壁垒的？怎么能确保你们的学习曲线是比较高的？</strong>傅盛：<strong>我觉得服务机器人硬件的定义已经完成了，后面拼的就是软件和智能化。</strong>而在智能化层面，我们是可以拉开差距的。比如说，今天你要去做个商场服务机器人，你做的跟我一样，把我的硬件整个拆过去，所有东西都拷贝一份。但是到商场，你的服务效率还是不如我高，因为我有那些数据，有那些语音数据，我训练以后，它的满意度会很高。而用户不用，或者用得很少，就形成不了这么一个循环。我们今天已经做到了服务机器人放出去以后，真的有人在用了。我们每天都会看这个数据，有多少用户在跟它交互。这些交互就使我们知道怎么去优化，让用户更满意。我举个例子，我们的服务机器人放到酒店时，你们可能都没想到，用户有 30% 到 40% 的询问是周边的吃喝玩乐。这个数据我们看着都觉得很惊人，你以为他在和机器人逗笑，其实不是，而是真的在被使用。第二个就是做服务机器人这几年，我认为我在内部做了一件很重要的事情，打通了人工智能、硬件、软件这几类人才之间的语言体系，统一到一个话语体系。今天他们都认为产品最重要，大家至少在内部形成了对于创新的共识。而能够把这几块打通的公司不多，这其实支撑我们可以用很精简化的团队创业模式，很低的成本，就能把这个技术体系做的不错。<strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>感觉就是你真的进到场景里，去解决现实问题的时候，原来那些不能融合的语言，在解决具体问题的上就融合了。所以那个问题得特别明确，特别具体。</strong>傅盛：是的，<strong>要想有数据，就得有能力进到场景里，进到场景里就要解决最具体的问题。</strong>我们现在提倡叫优雅的解决。什么叫优雅的解决，两个年轻人要把老挝的大米卖到国际市场，他们怎么做？买了个二手发电机，脚踏着发电，这边把电脑接好，然后拨一个号，把邮件发出去，每天这么做一次，就把他家乡的大米卖到国际市场，而不需要 4G 网络、5G 网络、村村通的实现，他才能做这件事。我就特别感慨，我说今天不要把人工智能神化，更不要把机器人这三个字神化，它就是做成一个很好用的工具。在语音的处理中，我要解决的不是语音模型的问题，而是去定义前五秒、前五个问题。你跟人的接触就是五秒，比如问今天有什么打折？就五秒钟。我不需要解决很长的问题，就去解决那么几个问题。我们今天如何能保持优势？我觉得要让不同行业的人真正形成共识，叫互联网精神领导一切，改变一切，就是快速试错，小步快跑，永远以客户为中心，所有东西都围着客户转。<strong>张鹏：</strong><strong>要想做的更好，需要进到场景里去学习，有场景才有数据，有了数据机器人才会进步。这样的一个学习过程，让我觉得本质上你像是个机器人的技校，就是不只是在生产机器人，你的核心是要让它能成长得更好，除了装酷之外，至少在这个社会上能干点有用的事，我不知道我这个理解对不对？</strong>傅盛：是的，我经常说蓝翔技校这样的学校是很牛的，批量地培养技术工人。我们就是要像蓝翔技校一样批量的培养有用的服务机器人，推出的服务机器人就是真的去帮助各行各业去解决服务劳动力的问题。服务机器人，今天我们应该不要再把它做成一个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上的、高科技属性的行业，而应该是廉价、便宜、好用。在一些特别重复的岗位、特别垂直的岗位，这个岗位又被定义的非常清楚的情况下，服务机器人是有可能替代人，甚至有些地方做得比人好。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/8cu01Kavc5ZEzbKBVM2xq7iavNBh3BS8pRQ8mFL6zhL2hxID7Co8G29MQHWKr4aFxH4zQv64PkgTEZlxOKVH0nw/640?wx_fmt=png\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133411560v173rasos10d4us\"/><p><strong>图片来源：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></strong>转载请联系极客君微信 geekparker</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133412258v173uso42w7u2w3\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133412905v1734ljtpmiuss9\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133419285v173i29tc9oafvw\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133425605v173hinz2kd8868\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133427138v173denz3xdutwn\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210716133438134v173hcs2wnnk0li\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>猎豹移动傅盛｜「看穿」服务机器人</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n猎豹移动傅盛｜「看穿」服务机器人\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 13:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107161334407c213d36&s=b><strong>极客公园</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>服务机器人的底层逻辑是什么？如何给一架高速飞行中的战斗机换引擎？这几乎是一个不可能完成的任务，但这是猎豹移动正在面临的挑战。曾经作为一家成功的出海互联网公司，猎豹成功在 2014 年 5 月登录纽交所上市，市值也曾高达 50 亿美元。但因为众所周知的原因，猎豹不得已，退出营收占比超过八成的海外市场，转战国内市场，并重点布局智能服务机器人。一边飞行，一边「换引擎」，猎豹还是太过艰难了。上个月，猎豹...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107161334407c213d36&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622fd66f8ff8e41e026a061f05cfd05f","relate_stocks":{"300024":"机器人","CMCM":"猎豹移动"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107161334407c213d36&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2151157791","content_text":"服务机器人的底层逻辑是什么？如何给一架高速飞行中的战斗机换引擎？这几乎是一个不可能完成的任务，但这是猎豹移动正在面临的挑战。曾经作为一家成功的出海互联网公司，猎豹成功在 2014 年 5 月登录纽交所上市，市值也曾高达 50 亿美元。但因为众所周知的原因，猎豹不得已，退出营收占比超过八成的海外市场，转战国内市场，并重点布局智能服务机器人。一边飞行，一边「换引擎」，猎豹还是太过艰难了。上个月，猎豹公布了 2021 年 Q1 财报，数字看起来并不乐观，智能服务机器人业务也看似没有起色。经历如此挫折的公司，放在国内都很少见。我们和你有同样的疑问，猎豹未来还会好吗？作为猎豹这家战斗机的「飞行员」傅盛，又在想什么？6 月底的一天，北京天气闷热。极客公园创始人&CEO 张鹏和猎豹移动董事长兼 CEO 傅盛，聊了聊猎豹的情况。出人意料的是，傅盛看起来并不焦躁，还很乐观。他认为作为公司主营业务的智能服务机器人的风口已经到来，猎豹春天在即。猎豹未来也会成为服务机器人的「蓝翔技校」，为社会提供「真有用」的机器人。以下是交流实录：从装酷到「真有用」，服务机器人的风口到来张鹏：我看到你们的财报情况，还是略有担忧，但今天看你的状态还挺好的。是不是财报背后还有一些我们没看见的事情，今天能不能分享一下？傅盛：财报本身当然是有很大的压力，但的确，财报背后还是有一些东西是没有被看见的。一方面，因为猎豹移动的主要业务以前是在海外，被打掉以后，我们的收入下降挺厉害。但是即便如此，我们还用了很多努力去解决。首先，我们最困难的这两年，现金储备是在增加的。其次，我们回归到国内的移动互联网业务企稳了。此外，我们在四年前就开始布局的服务机器人风口真的到了。张鹏：你怎么定义「服务机器人的风口要来了」这个概念？傅盛：一方面，从最开始做产品发布的时候，我们就提出了三个字叫「真有用」，能用很低廉的价格让人去真正使用，并且能够在很多日常场景里去高频度地使用。现在，我认为技术本身已经开始成熟，成本开始急剧地下降，产品开始达到了实用、可用，而且越来越廉价化。现在我们一个服务机器人推出去价格已经可以非常便宜了，而三、四年前，可能一个服务机器人的价格就是十几、二十万。另一方面，我们客户群发生了变化，最早服务机器人更多是服务一些展厅，主要是用来装酷的。现在，我们的客户群开始变成中小餐厅，他们的毛利其实抠得非常细，行业很残酷，据说每年中小餐厅的换手率是 40%，他们却真的愿意为服务机器人买单，不是为了装酷，是为了降低成本，提高利润。而像这种中小企业也越来越多，所以我就认为服务机器人的风口是真的到了。张鹏：所以你认为风口到了的核心，是整个服务机器人这件事，能够算得过账？傅盛：是的，算账其实从两个层面算，我们叫开源和节流。先说节流，比如说餐厅和商场要雇服务员。但其实今天服务员成本越来越高，而且在疫情之后，还越来越难招了。你发现但凡大一点的餐厅，它的服务员和送菜员是两个岗位。其中送菜员很难招到而且成本也不低，现在机器人完全可以替代了。它真的能够去完成，把这个菜从后厨递到桌前的这件事。这就叫节流，能够帮助餐饮企业真正地去降低它的成本。张鹏：甚至我觉得这越来越会成为解决劳动力问题的办法，而不只是节流，可能前者还会更关键。傅盛：是的，全世界都是这样的，经济发展到一定程度，服务业是比工业更大的产业。但是劳动力人口的供给又在减少，科技必然是解决劳动力问题的一条途径。另一方面就是开源。我们服务机器人它是智能化的，它能够跟人去交互，把门口的客人给吸引进来，甚至把在商城里离餐厅大概几十米逛的人，给吸引进来。图片｜智能接待机器人豹小秘mini我们现在有两类机器人，其中一个叫豹小秘 mini，设计跟小朋友差不多高，小朋友特喜欢，你说跳个舞，那个机器人就跳，小朋友也跟着跳。我们一个大客户喜家德，他们在几个店里实测了三个月，每天都会把客人领进来，刚刚跟我们下了上百台的订单。而且通过这个机器人，你可以像运营一个互联网站一样来运营餐厅，打开手机小程序，点一个按钮，然后上百个机器人就能立即学会，不需要培训。而且做完以后，马上就有实时数据。张鹏：除了这些，还有什么用吗？傅盛：今天猎豹移动还有线下流量业务。我们和商场合作，在全国应该有 1200 个商场，布了 12000 多台这种服务机器人。有一个数据可能是反常识的，电商在中国发展这么好，但是过去三年，除了疫情之外，整个商场的客流量是在不断增加的。而商业综合体越修越大。它面临一个问题，就是很多人进去后会晕。我们最开始就只是给这些商场里面的用户去提供问路服务。我们的豹大屏，它价格已经做得非常便宜了，可以在很多位置都放上。豹大屏今天超过一半以上的问题，都是关于商场品牌，比如说喜茶有没有、星巴克在哪儿。图片｜商场优惠机器人豹大屏后来我们就在里面发现一个机会，帮这些商场店去引流。我们最近有个数据，在今年 6 月我们通过机器人，帮汉堡王卖了一万个汉堡。虽然数据没那么惊人，但是充分证明一件事，智能服务机器人真正开始有用了，也逐渐被社会和用户在商场里接受了。服务机器人产品设计的底层逻辑张鹏：智能服务机器人在设计上，有什么特殊的讲究吗？傅盛：我认为一个服务机器人要做好，其实核心不是它长得像人，而是它真的有用。我四年前就想清楚大逻辑了，服务业一定要有科技，人工智能又可以使机器有感知和交流的能力，所以这个时候用服务机器人，在市场中去找到一个高速成长的赛道，是有机会的。那时候我考察了市面上的服务机器人的厂商。当时我发现一个问题，就是这个行业走错方向了。比如，我看了一个新闻，说日本的软银 Pepper 机器人停止生产。很多人问我的看法，我就说它只是在追求像人，好像造一架飞机你非得像鸟，一定要拍着翅膀才能飞。但其实你核心的使命是飞起来，而不是一定要像鸟。我们做服务机器人，是真正能去帮助提供一些服务，提高效率，而不是它一定要长一双手，一定要脑袋是个圆的，两个眼睛。我去找过 Pepper 最初的创始产品经理，他要追求一种情感化的陪同，我说这一定搞不定。以我对人工智能技术的了解，人和人之间都解决不了的情感问题，去让机器去解决情感问题，这条路一看就肯定走不通。张鹏：所以你想要去让机器人解决什么样的问题？以及如何解决的？傅盛：我想解决工具的问题。我们当时的设计就是把技术集成好，把语音交互、视觉交互、自主导航都集成在产品里。当场景真正出现的时候，我们随时可以拆出一块来，去适应这个场景。比如说我们的送餐机器人，你看它们两个脑袋是一样的（指商场优惠机器人「豹大屏」与餐厅营销服务机器人「招财豹」），底盘也是一样的，就是中间一个是放了屏幕，一个是放了货架。图｜餐厅营销服务机器人招财豹我认为一定要找到一个大规模可复制化的产品形态和技术的整合，这样的话，你在任何场景适用的时候，不需要为每个场景单独定制。就是通用的硬件，差异化的软件。我们讲智能手机它之所以智能，不是买来就什么都能用，而是装了不同的 APP。服务机器人也是这样的。我把它叫做「每个场景都是一个 APP」。所以你看我们对餐厅就相当于做了一个餐厅 APP，对商场就做了个商场 APP。每个商场进去的时候，我们就把商场地图输入进去，把这些餐饮品牌输入进去，用户才可以交互。这样的话，就能快速实现在这些场景里落地。这也是到今天为止，我看到这个行业，我们和其他机器人公司最大的不同。张鹏：所以我觉得你这个总结挺有意思，一般新的黑科技出来，大家特别容易去抓一个有趣和酷的点，但最终你发现，从有趣到有用是特别难的一个过程。你是源于什么逻辑，从在几年前，就能看到今天这个被印证的事情？傅盛：当时我觉得人工智能带来的一个很大的变化，其实是它改变了交互模式。我们回顾一下最早乔布斯说的话，苹果是有幸做过几次交互模式的改变。一个是图形化界面，第二个就是手机做成每个 APP 有它自己的界面，从而舍弃了物理键盘。但是这种交互局限在于，你只能做到每个软件有它的界面，而人工智能让语音识别这件事做到高度可用以后，就使得每个人都有自己的交互模式。我们举个例子，因为不怎么会用智能手机，被人说好笨，如果用语音问机器人星巴克在哪，它说我不知道，你会说这机器好笨。从交互上，这是第一次让机器在适应人，而不是人去适应机器。你完全凭着你的本能去问，它就可以实现服务。这是当时我看到人工智能语音识别带来的一个交互变革。这种交互效率的提升，使得即便在商场这样的场合，一个人都可以很自如地使用我们的机器，去达到他的目的。语音在我们商场的服务机器人里面有重要的应用。我们现在已经在 41 个城市，1200 个商场，部署了一万多台机器人，就专门给这些商场里的顾客提供问路、找店铺服务，还有一些优惠券的推荐。为什么选择服务机器人张鹏：为什么你没有选工业机器人的赛道，而是选服务机器人？傅盛：服务机器人和工业机器人其实是两个完全不同的品类。我也不是没有看过工业机器人这个赛道，我还专门去日本拜访过发那科（fanuc）的总部，看过它的整个产线。60 年代，发那科成立的时候，计算机还处于很早期，当时机器人本质上就是一个非常精密的一个机械产品，比如说工业机器人挥臂，从这儿转到这儿，它是不知道螺丝在这儿的，你必须设置好。机器人「robot」这个词，起源于捷克语「robota」，它就是劳动力和奴隶的意思，翻译成中文就叫机器人了，好像我们什么都拿人的属性。其实真正工业机器人就是个自动化机器，所以它对精密度要求极高，对重复使用性要求极高，今天它的难度更多的是在于机械本身。而服务机器人却是来自于机械智能化、软件定制化，还有中台服务数据的整合，这几个技术是非常跨界的，要把它真正糅合好、做好并不容易。但我不选择工业机器人，并不是因为技术好不好的问题，而是从我个人来说，这个事不激励我。工业机器人的故事模型是非常容易建立，融资也会顺利很多。但这个赛道就是这样，人家已经定义好了，你就是做得更精密，更低成本。当然，我觉得像工业机器人这样的效率型企业也很重要，是整个人类社会往前走的非常重要的基石。但总有些人应该做一些今天看不到，但未来有可能会起来，为此哪怕失败了也认的事情。所以我真正把这个逻辑想得清楚，就选择了服务机器人。张鹏：更想走个窄门，觉得这对你更有动力。但是客观地讲，任何一个新技术，从诞生到真正产生价值的过程中会有危险，这很大程度上来自于对时间尺度的误断，应该是十年成熟却判断成五年，进而导致所有的技能树都点错。而在这个过程之中，其实每一个环节都是要循序渐进地走，但因为误判，可能都撑不到它的成功点，就已经没有元气了。你当时是怎么判断关键的时间点的？傅盛：当时我的逻辑是这样的，先从一个最大的逻辑去想，就是我能不能承受失败，这个问题我认为我是想清楚的，自己是能够承受。然后再往下的逻辑就是说，服务机器人的赛道有没有可能起来，我认为是肯定能起来的。人工智能技术的出现和人口劳动力的变化，是当时就看到的。然后，产品的形态有没有可能被组合出来？我们认为也是有可能的。服务机器人涉及的技术包括硬件、软件、人工智能，再加一些服务端的数据处理，这里面除了硬件我没干过，软件和服务端数据我还是很熟的，而人工智能，大家都是一个起跑线。我觉得互联网关于数据、软件和用户体验的认知，给我干这件事情带来了优势。所以我认为就在这件事情上，我们是最有机会干出来的。所以今天你问我时间点是怎么想的，我们认为服务机器人也有自动化属性，比如递送这件事。我们做递送是比较晚的，不管是餐厅递送，还是酒店递送。因为如果这个市场没起来之前，我不需要单独做递送，我的技术都储备在这儿，等递送出来了，餐厅和酒店我们就可以做。所以，自动化属性这一部分，我认为是效率性的。张鹏：它是可以被更智能的东西向下兼容？傅盛：对，比如说我们的餐厅机器人，不仅可以送餐，还可以跟你对话。它既可以送又可以招揽。甚至，每周有 20% 的客户是拿来给顾客祝贺生日的。如果只是递送本身，它是个效率性的活，比的就是谁的成本和价格更低、营销渠道的效率更高以及人均产出更好。然后不停地再加上智能型服务。小餐厅是不用递送的，但招揽基本都需要，或者更好的服务。所以，我认为智能化是能够让机器人市场变得更大。而智能化，我们今天在这个市场基本上是独一家。做服务机器人的「蓝翔技校」张鹏：其实这些机器人，如果我们把它当成一个劳动力去评估，它是自动化层面更容易实现，但在智能层面都还相对初级。所以在这种情况下，做服务机器人，你们是怎么形成壁垒的？怎么能确保你们的学习曲线是比较高的？傅盛：我觉得服务机器人硬件的定义已经完成了，后面拼的就是软件和智能化。而在智能化层面，我们是可以拉开差距的。比如说，今天你要去做个商场服务机器人，你做的跟我一样，把我的硬件整个拆过去，所有东西都拷贝一份。但是到商场，你的服务效率还是不如我高，因为我有那些数据，有那些语音数据，我训练以后，它的满意度会很高。而用户不用，或者用得很少，就形成不了这么一个循环。我们今天已经做到了服务机器人放出去以后，真的有人在用了。我们每天都会看这个数据，有多少用户在跟它交互。这些交互就使我们知道怎么去优化，让用户更满意。我举个例子，我们的服务机器人放到酒店时，你们可能都没想到，用户有 30% 到 40% 的询问是周边的吃喝玩乐。这个数据我们看着都觉得很惊人，你以为他在和机器人逗笑，其实不是，而是真的在被使用。第二个就是做服务机器人这几年，我认为我在内部做了一件很重要的事情，打通了人工智能、硬件、软件这几类人才之间的语言体系，统一到一个话语体系。今天他们都认为产品最重要，大家至少在内部形成了对于创新的共识。而能够把这几块打通的公司不多，这其实支撑我们可以用很精简化的团队创业模式，很低的成本，就能把这个技术体系做的不错。张鹏：感觉就是你真的进到场景里，去解决现实问题的时候，原来那些不能融合的语言，在解决具体问题的上就融合了。所以那个问题得特别明确，特别具体。傅盛：是的，要想有数据，就得有能力进到场景里，进到场景里就要解决最具体的问题。我们现在提倡叫优雅的解决。什么叫优雅的解决，两个年轻人要把老挝的大米卖到国际市场，他们怎么做？买了个二手发电机，脚踏着发电，这边把电脑接好，然后拨一个号，把邮件发出去，每天这么做一次，就把他家乡的大米卖到国际市场，而不需要 4G 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