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多思
2022-12-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
买特斯拉就是买老马的企业家精神,老马,快点服软,全心全意为特斯拉股东们服务,超苹果市值分分钟的事
多思
2023-03-24
$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$
现在才意识到降本,钱都快烧完了,一点危机感都没有,早半年降本,股价兴许到十元左右再增发,继续降本增效,业绩出来了,市值自然就上去了,哎,
多思
2017-06-02
为什么我们坚守十四年就用这种方法做教育?2017-06-02 重庆学而思各位尊敬的家长:学而思自2003年创办以来, 始终在家长们的支持、鼓励、监督、鞭策中成长。作为课外辅导机构中的一员,学而思始终致力于用高品质的教学和服务为中小学生的基础教育做出有益补充,致力于成为家长教育孩子的有力帮手。近期媒体有一些关于我们的报道。这些报道中有赞扬,也有批评。对于赞扬,我们由衷感激;对于批评,我们虚心受教,深刻反思。其中,我们尤其要反思,学而思和家长之间缺乏更深入的沟通。我们希望把我们做教育的初心,我们的教育理念,我们的课程研发与教学培训进展等家长们关心关注的问题,都和家长们做更为深入的交流,广泛听取家长们的建议。 一、学而思为什么“要求家长听课”?家长旁听是我们提供给您的一个权利,而不是您的义务。 我们采用开放课堂模式有以下几个原因:1、我们发现,很多家长对孩子的学习情况不够了解,往往是只知道学习成绩,而不清楚学习状态,只知道结果,而不了解过程。开放课堂,让家长走进教室,亲自关注孩子的课堂表现,是一个非常好的解决方法。2、孩子的教育需要家长和老师持续沟通。每个孩子都有自己的个性和特点,家长旁听不仅会让家长和老师之间的信息传递更加高效,更有利于针对孩子的情况做个性化的规划。3、家长旁听会让学而思在“不舒适区” 不断进步。开放课堂,家长会对学而思进行全面的监督。老师讲的好不好,有没有责任心,教材质量怎么样,教学环境哪儿要改进……不仅仅是课堂,凡是和孩子学习有关的因素都会在家长监督之下,学而思哪儿做得好,哪儿有问题,家长清清楚楚。我们也有私心,这种私心就是:家长的建议批评带给我们的“不舒适”会让我们不断进步。学而思成长的每一步都离不开家长的鞭策。为了充分发挥家长旁听制度的优点,培养孩子独立学习和思考的能力,我们衷心希望家长能遵守有关家长旁听制度的一些规则:不与孩子同桌,不在课堂上发言或给孩
多思
2023-02-27
$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$
融再多的钱都不够你亏呀,这种商业模式,太烂了吧,准备归零,惨惨惨
多思
2022-12-22
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
大跌,谁最高兴,不是投行,也不是养老金,中东财团,沙特,卡塔尔等等,这波抄底美国核心资产,哎,中国就是没有这个魄力,搞个一千亿刀来配置美国优质资产试试水,总比白给非洲那帮兄弟强吧,
多思
2022-12-16
别唱空吗,一唱股价又上去了,我真的好想加仓,跌出来的机会[龇牙] [龇牙]
抱歉,原内容已删除
多思
2020-06-24
有股东没有6个月锁定期,所以大家小心,跌透了在看,最好买前先查查哪些股东在出货,否则,是无底
多思
2020-03-11
确实大言不惭,以为全球的资金会是傻子
牛市轮流转:全球最好的资产在中国股市
多思
2018-06-06
博士支持
$好未来(TAL)$ **谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂 中华人民共和国中央人民政府门户网站06-05 10:27 【**谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂】**总理6月4日考察宁夏银川市永宁县闽宁中学“互联网+教育”发展状况。宁夏通过打造教育资源公共服务平台,全区中小学校互联网接入率已达到100%。在该校的“智慧教室”,学生们人手一个平板电脑,向总理展示上面集成的优质教育课件和彼此分享的学习心得。**说,“互联网+教育”让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂,大大拓宽了他们的视野。针对当地网速慢、信息化基础设施落后等困难,**要求有关部门要在这方面加大投入。他说,“互联网+教育”是促进起点公平的有效手段。
博士支持
多思
02-21
是
抱歉,原内容已删除
多思
2023-07-31
太高调,不适合做领导,特别是把话死了
抱歉,原内容已删除
多思
2023-07-04
今年下半年就到万亿了,2025年3万亿,试目以待[开心] [开心]
抱歉,原内容已删除
多思
2023-07-04
如果特斯拉是一个纯粹的汽车公司,估计2000亿刀都嫌贵了,市场投资者又不傻,不服可以做空呀,投资它就是信仰,马斯克绝对超乔布斯,看看苹果3万亿的市值,自动驾驶,人形机器人,储能,都是超万亿的市场,投资是未来的
抱歉,原内容已删除
多思
2023-03-20
$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$
终于跌破1⃣️元了
多思
2017-10-27
TAL财报详读
证券研究报告事件:好未来(TAL.N)10月26日发布FY2018Q2财报(2017年6月1日—2017年8月31日)。报告期内,公司实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比增加68.1%;净利润5945.1万美元,同比增加6.7%。点评:单季学员人数翻倍,二季度营收略超预期。(1)收入方面,公司2018Q2实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比大增68.1%,略超预期(此前指引预计为58%-60%),主要得益于单季度招生人数同比大增100.6%。拆分收入来看,小班、1V1、在线课程占比分别为达81%、12%、6%。其中,小班课程仍为公司增长核心驱动力,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达62%、77%。线上部分学而思网校保持高增长态势,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达144%、约200%。(2)成本费用方面,报告期内,公司销售费用率为12.84%(+2.29pct)、管理费用率为19.16%(-3.45pct),系线下教学点数量持续扩张、暑期促销活动推进及内部管理优化所致。受此影响,公司净利率较去年同期下降7.42pct。(3)净利润方面,公司Q2净利润同比增速6.7%远低于营收增速,主要原因为去年同期其他收益净额-非经营(Other (expense)/income)一项大增2380万美元,从而导致去年净利润基数较高。剔除该部分非经营性因素影响,我们测算公司本期实际净利润增速约40%。内生外扩稳步推进,教育航母呼之欲出。(1)内生方面:公司在以北京为主的一线城市内小范围实行暑假新初一和新高一入口级促销策略,有效控制费用的同时实现学员人数翻倍,单季度学员人次达224.24万人。预计较高的新生续费率(约50%)将对公司未来2-3个季度产生积极正向影响,2017年财报季度走势便是明证。同时,公司持续优化内部组织架构,将业务相关的事业部整合为5大事业群,运营效率持续优化。(2)外扩方面:一方面,公司教学点铺
TAL财报详读
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this piece, I evaluated two server stocks, Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) and Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL), using TipRanks’ comparison tool...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/smci-vs-dell-which-server-stock-is-the-better-buy?utm_source=itigerup.com&utm_medium=referral\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DELL":"戴尔","BK4588":"碎股",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4515":"5G概念","LU0053671581.USD":"摩根大通美国小盘成长股 A(dist)","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","SMCI":"超微电脑","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/smci-vs-dell-which-server-stock-is-the-better-buy?utm_source=itigerup.com&utm_medium=referral","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2413430639","content_text":"In this piece, I evaluated two server stocks, Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) and Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL), using TipRanks’ comparison tool...","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":203861705408760,"gmtCreate":1690809098320,"gmtModify":1690809099788,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"太高调,不适合做领导,特别是把话死了","listText":"太高调,不适合做领导,特别是把话死了","text":"太高调,不适合做领导,特别是把话死了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/203861705408760","repostId":"2355670869","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2355670869","pubTimestamp":1690780893,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2355670869?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-31 13:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"小鹏吴新宙:特斯拉FSD现在落地中国只会被小鹏吊打","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2355670869","media":"手机中国","summary":"而近日,CNMO注意到,小鹏自动驾驶副总裁吴新宙在接受相关媒体采访时,对于小鹏和特斯拉FSD之间的竞争展现出了非常自信的态度。相关采访信息在谈到特斯拉FSD在中国落地的挑战时,吴新宙表示:他们的挑战是要适应中国道路的动态、静态,要比美国复杂很多。即便12个月之后特斯拉FSD进入中国,特斯拉也永远都无法超过小鹏,因为小鹏的效率比特斯拉更高,小鹏的工程师也比特斯拉更努力,即便特斯拉招募的也是中国的工程师。","content":"<html><body><article><p>【CNMO新闻】如今,在国内的自动驾驶领域,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>处于比较领先的位置。不过,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的FSD也非常受关注,FSD的V12版本或许还将正式结束“Beta”版本,只是由于一些原因,特斯拉的FSD虽然可以在中国买到,但是至今仍然未能够落地中国。而近日,CNMO注意到,小鹏自动驾驶副总裁吴新宙在接受相关媒体采访时,对于小鹏和特斯拉FSD之间的竞争展现出了非常自信的态度。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/O3QSEUS7hBtHVqOM9cIFiobKnr4rmLw76eeRCQB0mhrpEAA/0\"/><p>最近这一段时间,小鹏G6上市,获得了市场上的成功。据相关数据,消费者选购小鹏G6 Max的比例高达70%。吴新宙表示,这个结果是在预期内,这是我们(自动驾驶)中心存在的价值。但我相信这个数字,超过了公司大部分高管的预期。大家对智能化拐点真的能来,没有看见之前心里蛮难有一个判断,但是今年这个点,大家信这个事了。</p><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/OkBBmSDeFuLyaj_kpbAyUmCmv01F2byUETUIIokFRErSEAA/0\"/><img src=\"https://inews.gtimg.com/om_bt/Oy_67mrwGJVkP_g-KoW8_bUJ_11h4-LEhd7G_FHzxT25sAA/0\"/><p>相关采访信息(图源:晚点Auto)</p><p>在谈到特斯拉FSD在中国落地的挑战时,吴新宙表示:他们的挑战是要适应中国道路的动态、静态,要比美国复杂很多。他们要来也不是一蹴而就的,中国这些坑你得搞定,要不然想都别想。我们现在做的事情,他们一点都少不了。另外,我认为他们现在进来也是被我们吊打,我们在中国市场的体验一定比他们好。即便12个月之后特斯拉FSD进入中国,特斯拉也永远都无法超过小鹏,因为小鹏的效率比特斯拉更高,小鹏的工程师也比特斯拉更努力,即便特斯拉招募的也是中国的工程师。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小鹏吴新宙:特斯拉FSD现在落地中国只会被小鹏吊打</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小鹏吴新宙:特斯拉FSD现在落地中国只会被小鹏吊打\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-31 13:21 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023073113225683f01786&s=b><strong>手机中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【CNMO新闻】如今,在国内的自动驾驶领域,小鹏汽车处于比较领先的位置。不过,特斯拉的FSD也非常受关注,FSD的V12版本或许还将正式结束“Beta”版本,只是由于一些原因,特斯拉的FSD虽然可以在中国买到,但是至今仍然未能够落地中国。而近日,CNMO注意到,小鹏自动驾驶副总裁吴新宙在接受相关媒体采访时,对于小鹏和特斯拉FSD之间的竞争展现出了非常自信的态度。最近这一段时间,小鹏G6上市,获得了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023073113225683f01786&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence 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Cap","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2023073113225683f01786&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2355670869","content_text":"【CNMO新闻】如今,在国内的自动驾驶领域,小鹏汽车处于比较领先的位置。不过,特斯拉的FSD也非常受关注,FSD的V12版本或许还将正式结束“Beta”版本,只是由于一些原因,特斯拉的FSD虽然可以在中国买到,但是至今仍然未能够落地中国。而近日,CNMO注意到,小鹏自动驾驶副总裁吴新宙在接受相关媒体采访时,对于小鹏和特斯拉FSD之间的竞争展现出了非常自信的态度。最近这一段时间,小鹏G6上市,获得了市场上的成功。据相关数据,消费者选购小鹏G6 Max的比例高达70%。吴新宙表示,这个结果是在预期内,这是我们(自动驾驶)中心存在的价值。但我相信这个数字,超过了公司大部分高管的预期。大家对智能化拐点真的能来,没有看见之前心里蛮难有一个判断,但是今年这个点,大家信这个事了。相关采访信息(图源:晚点Auto)在谈到特斯拉FSD在中国落地的挑战时,吴新宙表示:他们的挑战是要适应中国道路的动态、静态,要比美国复杂很多。他们要来也不是一蹴而就的,中国这些坑你得搞定,要不然想都别想。我们现在做的事情,他们一点都少不了。另外,我认为他们现在进来也是被我们吊打,我们在中国市场的体验一定比他们好。即便12个月之后特斯拉FSD进入中国,特斯拉也永远都无法超过小鹏,因为小鹏的效率比特斯拉更高,小鹏的工程师也比特斯拉更努力,即便特斯拉招募的也是中国的工程师。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194318137335848,"gmtCreate":1688478955675,"gmtModify":1688478957209,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今年下半年就到万亿了,2025年3万亿,试目以待[开心] [开心] ","listText":"今年下半年就到万亿了,2025年3万亿,试目以待[开心] [开心] ","text":"今年下半年就到万亿了,2025年3万亿,试目以待[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194318137335848","repostId":"2348349597","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2348349597","pubTimestamp":1688457900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2348349597?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-04 16:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Tesla Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2025?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2348349597","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This booming auto stock has already reached the 13-figure mark before.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li><p>Tesla posted relatively strong results in the latest quarter.</p></li><li><p>CEO Elon Musk wants to drive greater unit volume.</p></li><li><p>Even though the valuation looks steep, the company could reach a $1 trillion market cap in two years.</p></li></ul><p><strong>Tesla</strong> has flat-out been one of the best investments in recent times. The stock has skyrocketed 1,000% in the past five years and 3,600% in the past 10. And in 2023, it's up 114% through the first six months of the year. This leading maker of high-end electric vehicles (EV) has certainly proven that it can accelerate anyone's portfolio into overdrive. </p><p>As of June 30, Tesla had a market cap of $826 billion, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world. What are the chances that by sometime in 2025, this top auto stock carries a valuation of $1 trillion, something it already achieved in late 2021? Let's find out if this 21% rise is in the realm of possibilities. </p><h2>Rapid growth continues </h2><p>Despite macroheadwinds, Tesla continues its blistering pace of growth. Revenue during the first three months of 2023 increased 24% year over year to $23.3 billion. While this does represent a marked slowdown from previous quarters, it's still healthy growth nonetheless. Tesla was able to beat Wall Street expectations with that top-line figure. </p><p>During the three-month period, the electric car company produced 441,000 units and shipped 423,000, both up more than 35% compared to the first quarter of 2022. </p><h2>A bright future </h2><p>Even after its fantastic growth over the past decade, investors have a lot to get excited about as we look toward the future. It is estimated that EVs only accounted for less than 10% of overall car sales in 2022 in the U.S. So there is clearly still a huge runway ahead as the industry continues on its path to electrification. Tesla, which generated 48% of its overall revenue in its home country in Q1 2023, is in the top position to benefit from this shift, as it has leading market share domestically by a long shot. </p><p>Perhaps a disappointment to some shareholders, Tesla has decided to cut the prices of its cars multiple times over the past year. Elon Musk says that this is fully intended to boost volume and grow market share. Moreover, because Tesla keeps optimizing its manufacturing capabilities, and its cost structure gets more efficient, it is able to lower per-unit production expenses -- savings that can be passed to consumers. </p><p>Some critics might be skeptical of these pricing actions. But Musk views it all as part of Tesla's longer-term vision toward fully self-driving cars. He thinks that if autonomous technology works out, the value of a single Tesla will be worth more to the company than the initial selling price. So, it's all about growing the Tesla fleet that's out in the world. </p><h2>Sky-high valuation </h2><p>While Tesla has some favorable characteristics from a fundamental perspective, namely its leading market share and fast sales growth, investors need to think about another factor that is critical to potential stock returns: the valuation. </p><p>While the current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 77 is lower than its historical average, it still looks expensive on an absolute basis. Tesla is still growing at a rapid clip, but it's reasonable to assume that this growth will gradually decelerate in the years ahead as its available market opportunity shrinks and competition stiffens. Should Tesla's stock really be trading at almost four times <strong>Ford</strong>'s P/E and almost 13 times <strong>GM</strong>'s P/E. I'm not sure. </p><p>A valid argument can be made that based on Tesla's historical track record, rising 21% in 24 months seems like an automatic outcome. In fact, if Tesla's stock increases at the average past annualized 10% pace of the <strong>S&P 500</strong>, it'll reach the trillion-dollar mark in 2025. But because it's hard to see such a high-flying business perform only in line with the broader index's long-term pace, the stock could very well climb much more than that. </p><p>To be clear, I have no clue what Tesla's price, or any stock's price for that matter, will do in the next couple of years. And no matter how smart a person might sound, I don't think anyone really knows this. Based on the discussion above, if I had to guess, I'd say that the business will hit a trillion-dollar market cap by 2025.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Tesla Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2025?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Tesla Be a Trillion-Dollar Stock by 2025?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-04 16:05 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/will-tesla-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2025/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSTesla posted relatively strong results in the latest quarter.CEO Elon Musk wants to drive greater unit volume.Even though the valuation looks steep, the company could reach a $1 trillion ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/will-tesla-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2025/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/will-tesla-be-a-trillion-dollar-stock-by-2025/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2348349597","content_text":"KEY POINTSTesla posted relatively strong results in the latest quarter.CEO Elon Musk wants to drive greater unit volume.Even though the valuation looks steep, the company could reach a $1 trillion market cap in two years.Tesla has flat-out been one of the best investments in recent times. The stock has skyrocketed 1,000% in the past five years and 3,600% in the past 10. And in 2023, it's up 114% through the first six months of the year. This leading maker of high-end electric vehicles (EV) has certainly proven that it can accelerate anyone's portfolio into overdrive. As of June 30, Tesla had a market cap of $826 billion, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world. What are the chances that by sometime in 2025, this top auto stock carries a valuation of $1 trillion, something it already achieved in late 2021? Let's find out if this 21% rise is in the realm of possibilities. Rapid growth continues Despite macroheadwinds, Tesla continues its blistering pace of growth. Revenue during the first three months of 2023 increased 24% year over year to $23.3 billion. While this does represent a marked slowdown from previous quarters, it's still healthy growth nonetheless. Tesla was able to beat Wall Street expectations with that top-line figure. During the three-month period, the electric car company produced 441,000 units and shipped 423,000, both up more than 35% compared to the first quarter of 2022. A bright future Even after its fantastic growth over the past decade, investors have a lot to get excited about as we look toward the future. It is estimated that EVs only accounted for less than 10% of overall car sales in 2022 in the U.S. So there is clearly still a huge runway ahead as the industry continues on its path to electrification. Tesla, which generated 48% of its overall revenue in its home country in Q1 2023, is in the top position to benefit from this shift, as it has leading market share domestically by a long shot. Perhaps a disappointment to some shareholders, Tesla has decided to cut the prices of its cars multiple times over the past year. Elon Musk says that this is fully intended to boost volume and grow market share. Moreover, because Tesla keeps optimizing its manufacturing capabilities, and its cost structure gets more efficient, it is able to lower per-unit production expenses -- savings that can be passed to consumers. Some critics might be skeptical of these pricing actions. But Musk views it all as part of Tesla's longer-term vision toward fully self-driving cars. He thinks that if autonomous technology works out, the value of a single Tesla will be worth more to the company than the initial selling price. So, it's all about growing the Tesla fleet that's out in the world. Sky-high valuation While Tesla has some favorable characteristics from a fundamental perspective, namely its leading market share and fast sales growth, investors need to think about another factor that is critical to potential stock returns: the valuation. While the current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 77 is lower than its historical average, it still looks expensive on an absolute basis. Tesla is still growing at a rapid clip, but it's reasonable to assume that this growth will gradually decelerate in the years ahead as its available market opportunity shrinks and competition stiffens. Should Tesla's stock really be trading at almost four times Ford's P/E and almost 13 times GM's P/E. I'm not sure. A valid argument can be made that based on Tesla's historical track record, rising 21% in 24 months seems like an automatic outcome. In fact, if Tesla's stock increases at the average past annualized 10% pace of the S&P 500, it'll reach the trillion-dollar mark in 2025. But because it's hard to see such a high-flying business perform only in line with the broader index's long-term pace, the stock could very well climb much more than that. To be clear, I have no clue what Tesla's price, or any stock's price for that matter, will do in the next couple of years. And no matter how smart a person might sound, I don't think anyone really knows this. Based on the discussion above, if I had to guess, I'd say that the business will hit a trillion-dollar market cap by 2025.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194317708808352,"gmtCreate":1688478738898,"gmtModify":1688479358876,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果特斯拉是一个纯粹的汽车公司,估计2000亿刀都嫌贵了,市场投资者又不傻,不服可以做空呀,投资它就是信仰,马斯克绝对超乔布斯,看看苹果3万亿的市值,自动驾驶,人形机器人,储能,都是超万亿的市场,投资是未来的","listText":"如果特斯拉是一个纯粹的汽车公司,估计2000亿刀都嫌贵了,市场投资者又不傻,不服可以做空呀,投资它就是信仰,马斯克绝对超乔布斯,看看苹果3万亿的市值,自动驾驶,人形机器人,储能,都是超万亿的市场,投资是未来的","text":"如果特斯拉是一个纯粹的汽车公司,估计2000亿刀都嫌贵了,市场投资者又不傻,不服可以做空呀,投资它就是信仰,马斯克绝对超乔布斯,看看苹果3万亿的市值,自动驾驶,人形机器人,储能,都是超万亿的市场,投资是未来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194317708808352","repostId":"2348541144","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2348541144","pubTimestamp":1688458200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2348541144?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-04 16:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Deliveries: Winners And Losers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2348541144","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBYD, Li Auto, NIO, Tesla, and XPeng have announced their June and Q2 delivery numbers, with BYD leading in sales with 253,000 new energy vehicles sold in June.Li Auto, focusing on plug-in hybri","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>BYD, Li Auto, NIO, Tesla, and XPeng have announced their June and Q2 delivery numbers, with BYD leading in sales with 253,000 new energy vehicles sold in June.</p></li><li><p>Li Auto, focusing on plug-in hybrids, sold 33,000 vehicles in June, a 150% YoY increase, while Tesla delivered 470,000 vehicles in Q2, outperforming expectations.</p></li><li><p>Despite operational issues, NIO and XPeng forecast improved results in the near term, with BYD considered the most attractive choice due to its delivery numbers.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f5c09c22211c2955b3922a0e67fcaf\" alt=\"coldsnowstorm\" title=\"coldsnowstorm\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>coldsnowstorm</span></p><h2>Article Summary</h2><p>Many EV players have announced their June and Q2 delivery numbers over the last couple of days. In this article, we will take a look at a couple of individual companies and what their deliveries in June and Q2 could mean for the future.</p><h2>What EV Deliveries Looked Like For A Couple Of Key Players</h2><p>We will take a closer look at the deliveries reported by BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDY) (OTCPK:BYDDF), Li Auto (LI), NIO Inc. (NIO), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), and XPeng Inc. (XPEV).</p><p>Starting with BYD, the first player had an excellent June and second quarter. A total of 253,000 new energy vehicles were sold during June, for an annualized pace of more than 3 million. BYD does not sell "old" energy vehicles any longer, as its entire model lineup consists of pure EVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Both of these segments, which are roughly split 50:50 (pure EV sales are slightly higher, though), keep growing rapidly, as both roughly doubled over the last year. Deliveries were up on a month-to-month basis as well, in both segments, indicating that the company remains on a growth track and that the year-over-year growth was not driven by weak results last year when China was still impacted by COVID lockdowns.</p><p>While BYD is mostly focused on its home market China - the most important EV market in the world - the company keeps expanding in foreign markets. In June, BYD sold around 11,000 vehicles outside of China, for a pace well north of 100,000 - that's way more than the total sales of many EV players, including the likes of Lucid (LCID), Rivian (RIVN), and so on. While BYD and its Chinese peers remain highly dependent on their (fast-growing) home market, they keep expanding internationally, and it looks like the Chinese EV industry is here to stay as a global player.</p><p>BYD's sales of commercial vehicles (electricity-powered) rose rapidly as well, although from a low absolute level. Relative to the much higher passenger vehicle sales, commercial vehicle sales aren't too important, making up around 0.6% of total sales.</p><p>So far, BYD has sold 1.3 million EVs in 2023, the most by far among any company in the world, including legacy players and EV pureplays. The company aims for at least 3 million sales this year, and based on the hefty growth of 95% over the first half of this year, I believe that there is a very good chance that BYD will achieve its goal - not a lot of sequential growth is needed for that.</p><p>Li Auto is another Chinese EV player, with a model lineup that is mostly focused on plug-in hybrids. These are attractive for those with range anxiety and do thus address a market that is hard to reach for companies that solely sell BEVs. Consumers that live in areas where there is not a lot of charging infrastructure (yet) may prefer a vehicle that can use electricity when it is available, but that can also run on gasoline when charging the vehicle is impractical or impossible. With this approach, Li Auto is having a lot of success in the recent past: Deliveries totaled 33,000 vehicles in June, which was up by a hefty 150% year over year, for the best growth rate among the EV companies covered in this report. Sales also were up by a pretty nice 15% on a month-to-month basis, indicating that the company remains on a growth track - even higher sales during the second half of the current year thus seem likely to me (although that is not guaranteed, of course). With this sales number, Li Auto also beat its own delivery forecast for the second quarter handsomely, which naturally is great - a company that underpromises and over-delivers is doing something right. Other EV players that have to reduce their guidance and/or that miss it should take note.</p><p>Li Auto believes that its deliveries will rise to 40,000 vehicles per month towards the end of the year, which seems achievable to me, based on the current deliveries run rate and the sequential growth rate. With a roughly 500,000 vehicles per year run rate, Li Auto would be a major force in the EV space if this plays out.</p><p>NIO has had a rough couple of months, but its June deliveries were pretty solid. The company sold 11,000 vehicles in June, up by a hefty 74% month-to-month, but that was mainly due to weak sales in May. The run rate in June of around 130,000 vehicles is significantly below what NIO aimed for at the beginning of the year and is also below what management believes the run rate will look like at the end of the year. Unlike Li Auto, for example, NIO has thus had a hard time delivering on its goals. According to management, things will improve substantially during the second half of the year, due to new product launches such as the new version of the ET5 and the new ES8.</p><p>The next EV company in this article, Tesla, remains the undisputed king in the EV space in terms of market capitalization: With an $850 billion valuation, Tesla overshadows all EV peers and all legacy competitors. When it comes to deliveries, it is one of the largest EV players, but Tesla sells fewer vehicles than BYD - although at a higher average price. Deliveries totaled 470,000 during the second quarter or around 155,000 per month. That's roughly two-thirds of BYD's current delivery run rate. Tesla easily outperformed expectations, as its sales were higher than the highest Wall Street estimate - a fact that was rewarded by the market, as Tesla soared by 7% on Monday. Production was higher than Tesla's deliveries, meaning the company continued with a trend of growing its inventory. This hurts the company's cash generation, all else equal, but allows Tesla to serve demand without long waiting times for most of its vehicles. With this deliveries report, it seems pretty likely that Tesla will achieve its 1.8 million sales milestone for the current year, as that pencils out to around 450,000 vehicles per quarter - Tesla has proven that it is able to do that and even more.</p><p>The last company in this article is XPeng, another Chinese EV pureplay. It brands itself as a tech-focused company that puts a lot of value on advanced driving assistance systems and similar items in its EVs. XPeng sold 9,000 vehicles in June, which is the lowest number among the companies covered in this report. Still, XPeng showed solid month-to-month growth of 15% and outperformed its own guidance - which, again, is a positive sign. On the other side, deliveries unfortunately were down compared to the previous year, which is far from great - EV companies are growth companies, and since most of them aren't profitable yet, business growth is needed to eventually allow for profitability.</p><h2>Which EV Company Is A Good Investment?</h2><p>Let's start out by saying that the automobile industry, in general, is cyclical, capital intense, and margins aren't high in this space. There is a lot of competition both in the EV space and in the overall auto space. The auto industry thus is not among my favorite industries to invest in.</p><p>That being said, the EV space promises a lot of growth potential in the coming years, and EV pureplays that don't have any legacy business overhang should benefit substantially from said growth potential.</p><p>From a growth perspective, Tesla, BYD, and Li seem most attractive. Especially BYD and Li have shown massive growth in the recent past. Tesla is growing a little slower, but has the advantage of better-than-average margins and generates attractive cash flows relative to other EV pureplays. Looking at valuations, we see the following:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac95cd48023acd9de7c3a8b3f7d57daf\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Note: BYD sales estimates are not available on YCharts, but according to Seeking Alpha's data, the company trades at 2.1x this year's revenue. There is a pretty clear disconnect between the valuation of Chinese EV players and the valuation of Tesla: Due to Tesla's profitability advantage and macro/geopolitical factors, a premium makes sense, but I believe that it shouldn't necessarily be this high - after all, Tesla is still highly dependent on China for both production and sales, thus TSLA is far from immune from macro or geopolitical risks.</p><p>Considering the absolute delivery numbers that these companies report, the relative growth rate, and the valuation, I believe that BYD seems like the most attractive choice right here. The fact that it is a major battery supplier and thus also benefits when other companies sell EVs is an advantage as well.</p><h2>Takeaway</h2><p>The EV industry continues to grow, but not all companies benefit equally. Li has shown excellent growth, although from a lower basis than Tesla and BYD. NIO and XPeng have some operational problems and aren't growing much right now, but both forecast improving results in the near term. While Tesla is the most profitable company, its pretty high valuation results in some risks. BYD looks best overall, I believe.</p><p>Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Deliveries: Winners And Losers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Deliveries: Winners And Losers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-04 16:10 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615029-ev-deliveries-winners-and-losers><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBYD, Li Auto, NIO, Tesla, and XPeng have announced their June and Q2 delivery numbers, with BYD leading in sales with 253,000 new energy vehicles sold in June.Li Auto, focusing on plug-in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615029-ev-deliveries-winners-and-losers\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4563":"昨日强势股","NIO.SI":"蔚来","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4531":"中概回港概念","002594":"比亚迪","02015":"理想汽车-W","BYDDY":"比亚迪ADR","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","NIO":"蔚来","01211":"比亚迪股份","BK4509":"腾讯概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","09866":"蔚来-SW","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LI":"理想汽车","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615029-ev-deliveries-winners-and-losers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2348541144","content_text":"SummaryBYD, Li Auto, NIO, Tesla, and XPeng have announced their June and Q2 delivery numbers, with BYD leading in sales with 253,000 new energy vehicles sold in June.Li Auto, focusing on plug-in hybrids, sold 33,000 vehicles in June, a 150% YoY increase, while Tesla delivered 470,000 vehicles in Q2, outperforming expectations.Despite operational issues, NIO and XPeng forecast improved results in the near term, with BYD considered the most attractive choice due to its delivery numbers.coldsnowstormArticle SummaryMany EV players have announced their June and Q2 delivery numbers over the last couple of days. In this article, we will take a look at a couple of individual companies and what their deliveries in June and Q2 could mean for the future.What EV Deliveries Looked Like For A Couple Of Key PlayersWe will take a closer look at the deliveries reported by BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDY) (OTCPK:BYDDF), Li Auto (LI), NIO Inc. (NIO), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), and XPeng Inc. (XPEV).Starting with BYD, the first player had an excellent June and second quarter. A total of 253,000 new energy vehicles were sold during June, for an annualized pace of more than 3 million. BYD does not sell \"old\" energy vehicles any longer, as its entire model lineup consists of pure EVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Both of these segments, which are roughly split 50:50 (pure EV sales are slightly higher, though), keep growing rapidly, as both roughly doubled over the last year. Deliveries were up on a month-to-month basis as well, in both segments, indicating that the company remains on a growth track and that the year-over-year growth was not driven by weak results last year when China was still impacted by COVID lockdowns.While BYD is mostly focused on its home market China - the most important EV market in the world - the company keeps expanding in foreign markets. In June, BYD sold around 11,000 vehicles outside of China, for a pace well north of 100,000 - that's way more than the total sales of many EV players, including the likes of Lucid (LCID), Rivian (RIVN), and so on. While BYD and its Chinese peers remain highly dependent on their (fast-growing) home market, they keep expanding internationally, and it looks like the Chinese EV industry is here to stay as a global player.BYD's sales of commercial vehicles (electricity-powered) rose rapidly as well, although from a low absolute level. Relative to the much higher passenger vehicle sales, commercial vehicle sales aren't too important, making up around 0.6% of total sales.So far, BYD has sold 1.3 million EVs in 2023, the most by far among any company in the world, including legacy players and EV pureplays. The company aims for at least 3 million sales this year, and based on the hefty growth of 95% over the first half of this year, I believe that there is a very good chance that BYD will achieve its goal - not a lot of sequential growth is needed for that.Li Auto is another Chinese EV player, with a model lineup that is mostly focused on plug-in hybrids. These are attractive for those with range anxiety and do thus address a market that is hard to reach for companies that solely sell BEVs. Consumers that live in areas where there is not a lot of charging infrastructure (yet) may prefer a vehicle that can use electricity when it is available, but that can also run on gasoline when charging the vehicle is impractical or impossible. With this approach, Li Auto is having a lot of success in the recent past: Deliveries totaled 33,000 vehicles in June, which was up by a hefty 150% year over year, for the best growth rate among the EV companies covered in this report. Sales also were up by a pretty nice 15% on a month-to-month basis, indicating that the company remains on a growth track - even higher sales during the second half of the current year thus seem likely to me (although that is not guaranteed, of course). With this sales number, Li Auto also beat its own delivery forecast for the second quarter handsomely, which naturally is great - a company that underpromises and over-delivers is doing something right. Other EV players that have to reduce their guidance and/or that miss it should take note.Li Auto believes that its deliveries will rise to 40,000 vehicles per month towards the end of the year, which seems achievable to me, based on the current deliveries run rate and the sequential growth rate. With a roughly 500,000 vehicles per year run rate, Li Auto would be a major force in the EV space if this plays out.NIO has had a rough couple of months, but its June deliveries were pretty solid. The company sold 11,000 vehicles in June, up by a hefty 74% month-to-month, but that was mainly due to weak sales in May. The run rate in June of around 130,000 vehicles is significantly below what NIO aimed for at the beginning of the year and is also below what management believes the run rate will look like at the end of the year. Unlike Li Auto, for example, NIO has thus had a hard time delivering on its goals. According to management, things will improve substantially during the second half of the year, due to new product launches such as the new version of the ET5 and the new ES8.The next EV company in this article, Tesla, remains the undisputed king in the EV space in terms of market capitalization: With an $850 billion valuation, Tesla overshadows all EV peers and all legacy competitors. When it comes to deliveries, it is one of the largest EV players, but Tesla sells fewer vehicles than BYD - although at a higher average price. Deliveries totaled 470,000 during the second quarter or around 155,000 per month. That's roughly two-thirds of BYD's current delivery run rate. Tesla easily outperformed expectations, as its sales were higher than the highest Wall Street estimate - a fact that was rewarded by the market, as Tesla soared by 7% on Monday. Production was higher than Tesla's deliveries, meaning the company continued with a trend of growing its inventory. This hurts the company's cash generation, all else equal, but allows Tesla to serve demand without long waiting times for most of its vehicles. With this deliveries report, it seems pretty likely that Tesla will achieve its 1.8 million sales milestone for the current year, as that pencils out to around 450,000 vehicles per quarter - Tesla has proven that it is able to do that and even more.The last company in this article is XPeng, another Chinese EV pureplay. It brands itself as a tech-focused company that puts a lot of value on advanced driving assistance systems and similar items in its EVs. XPeng sold 9,000 vehicles in June, which is the lowest number among the companies covered in this report. Still, XPeng showed solid month-to-month growth of 15% and outperformed its own guidance - which, again, is a positive sign. On the other side, deliveries unfortunately were down compared to the previous year, which is far from great - EV companies are growth companies, and since most of them aren't profitable yet, business growth is needed to eventually allow for profitability.Which EV Company Is A Good Investment?Let's start out by saying that the automobile industry, in general, is cyclical, capital intense, and margins aren't high in this space. There is a lot of competition both in the EV space and in the overall auto space. The auto industry thus is not among my favorite industries to invest in.That being said, the EV space promises a lot of growth potential in the coming years, and EV pureplays that don't have any legacy business overhang should benefit substantially from said growth potential.From a growth perspective, Tesla, BYD, and Li seem most attractive. Especially BYD and Li have shown massive growth in the recent past. Tesla is growing a little slower, but has the advantage of better-than-average margins and generates attractive cash flows relative to other EV pureplays. Looking at valuations, we see the following:Data by YChartsNote: BYD sales estimates are not available on YCharts, but according to Seeking Alpha's data, the company trades at 2.1x this year's revenue. There is a pretty clear disconnect between the valuation of Chinese EV players and the valuation of Tesla: Due to Tesla's profitability advantage and macro/geopolitical factors, a premium makes sense, but I believe that it shouldn't necessarily be this high - after all, Tesla is still highly dependent on China for both production and sales, thus TSLA is far from immune from macro or geopolitical risks.Considering the absolute delivery numbers that these companies report, the relative growth rate, and the valuation, I believe that BYD seems like the most attractive choice right here. The fact that it is a major battery supplier and thus also benefits when other companies sell EVs is an advantage as well.TakeawayThe EV industry continues to grow, but not all companies benefit equally. Li has shown excellent growth, although from a lower basis than Tesla and BYD. NIO and XPeng have some operational problems and aren't growing much right now, but both forecast improving results in the near term. While Tesla is the most profitable company, its pretty high valuation results in some risks. BYD looks best overall, I believe.Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659330946,"gmtCreate":1679666148585,"gmtModify":1679666150086,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ </a>现在才意识到降本,钱都快烧完了,一点危机感都没有,早半年降本,股价兴许到十元左右再增发,继续降本增效,业绩出来了,市值自然就上去了,哎,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ </a>现在才意识到降本,钱都快烧完了,一点危机感都没有,早半年降本,股价兴许到十元左右再增发,继续降本增效,业绩出来了,市值自然就上去了,哎,","text":"$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ 现在才意识到降本,钱都快烧完了,一点危机感都没有,早半年降本,股价兴许到十元左右再增发,继续降本增效,业绩出来了,市值自然就上去了,哎,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659330946","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"content":"万丈深渊,一美元退市,","text":"万丈深渊,一美元退市,","html":"万丈深渊,一美元退市,"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650248499,"gmtCreate":1679322321011,"gmtModify":1679322322106,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ </a>终于跌破1⃣️元了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ </a>终于跌破1⃣️元了","text":"$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ 终于跌破1⃣️元了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650248499","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624222032,"gmtCreate":1677507361526,"gmtModify":1677507362833,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ </a>融再多的钱都不够你亏呀,这种商业模式,太烂了吧,准备归零,惨惨惨","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ </a>融再多的钱都不够你亏呀,这种商业模式,太烂了吧,准备归零,惨惨惨","text":"$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ 融再多的钱都不够你亏呀,这种商业模式,太烂了吧,准备归零,惨惨惨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624222032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621984462,"gmtCreate":1671808802356,"gmtModify":1671808989910,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>买特斯拉就是买老马的企业家精神,老马,快点服软,全心全意为特斯拉股东们服务,超苹果市值分分钟的事","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>买特斯拉就是买老马的企业家精神,老马,快点服软,全心全意为特斯拉股东们服务,超苹果市值分分钟的事","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 买特斯拉就是买老马的企业家精神,老马,快点服软,全心全意为特斯拉股东们服务,超苹果市值分分钟的事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621984462","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4110529004655250","authorId":"4110529004655250","name":"__3062_3065","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bdc491df6543e0a1a2d9e2b402b0ffd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4110529004655250","idStr":"4110529004655250"},"content":"但这就是马斯克,不会向自己人股东投资者,亦或是敌对群体服软","text":"但这就是马斯克,不会向自己人股东投资者,亦或是敌对群体服软","html":"但这就是马斯克,不会向自己人股东投资者,亦或是敌对群体服软"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621030658,"gmtCreate":1671723954975,"gmtModify":1671723956586,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>大跌,谁最高兴,不是投行,也不是养老金,中东财团,沙特,卡塔尔等等,这波抄底美国核心资产,哎,中国就是没有这个魄力,搞个一千亿刀来配置美国优质资产试试水,总比白给非洲那帮兄弟强吧,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>大跌,谁最高兴,不是投行,也不是养老金,中东财团,沙特,卡塔尔等等,这波抄底美国核心资产,哎,中国就是没有这个魄力,搞个一千亿刀来配置美国优质资产试试水,总比白给非洲那帮兄弟强吧,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 大跌,谁最高兴,不是投行,也不是养老金,中东财团,沙特,卡塔尔等等,这波抄底美国核心资产,哎,中国就是没有这个魄力,搞个一千亿刀来配置美国优质资产试试水,总比白给非洲那帮兄弟强吧,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621030658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623826362,"gmtCreate":1671201740956,"gmtModify":1671201742849,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别唱空吗,一唱股价又上去了,我真的好想加仓,跌出来的机会[龇牙] [龇牙] ","listText":"别唱空吗,一唱股价又上去了,我真的好想加仓,跌出来的机会[龇牙] [龇牙] ","text":"别唱空吗,一唱股价又上去了,我真的好想加仓,跌出来的机会[龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623826362","repostId":"2291401484","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2291401484","pubTimestamp":1671116580,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2291401484?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-15 23:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉年内市值蒸发5万亿!马斯克痛失世界首富,分析师:股价或再跌8成","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291401484","media":"时代周报猛犸工...","summary":"特斯拉股价年内累计跌幅已达60%。随着股价大跌,马斯克从世界首富宝座上跌落。今年以来,特斯拉股价“跌跌不休”。截至当地时间12月14日美股收盘,特斯拉再跌2.58%,报156.8美元,年内累计跌幅已经达60%;总市值仅剩4913.28亿美元,较年初跌去约7442亿美元。这也是其市值自2020年11月以来首次跌破5000亿美元大关。换言之,按其预计,特斯拉股价或还有超85%的跌幅。","content":"<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价年内累计跌幅已达60%。</p>\n<p>随着股价大跌,马斯克从世界首富宝座上跌落。</p>\n<p>今年以来,特斯拉股价“跌跌不休”。截至当地时间12月14日美股收盘,特斯拉再跌2.58%,报156.8美元,年内累计跌幅已经达60%;总市值仅剩4913.28亿美元,较年初跌去约7442亿美元(约合人民币51813亿元)。这也是其市值自2020年11月以来首次跌破5000亿美元大关。</p>\n<p>特斯拉大空头、GLJ Research分析师Gordon Johnson更是语出惊人:预计特斯拉股价到明年年底将跌至其23美元的目标价。换言之,按其预计,特斯拉股价或还有超85%的跌幅。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"600\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20221215/166/w1166h600/20221215/5888-38dece54e30ce456cdd98588f437d8cb.jpg\" w=\"1166\"/>\n<h2>图片来源:特斯拉</h2>\n</figure>\n<p>Johnson在一次采访中表示:“我们发现特斯拉只是一家普通的汽车公司,产能超过了他们的销售能力。”他认为,特斯拉不是一家科技公司,不应像科技公司那样定价,并补充说,他预计特斯拉的股票将继续面临抛售压力。</p>\n<p>空头和多头谁将取胜,还言之尚早,但这场股价暴跌,马斯克或是目前的最大输家。</p>\n<p>痛失“世界首富”宝座</p>\n<p>尽管特斯拉股价全年基本都在下滑,但过去几个月跌势进一步加剧。</p>\n<p>自10月27日入主推特以来,特斯拉股价已经下跌了29%,远逊于同期标准普尔500指数6.6%的涨幅。在特斯拉市值持续缩水的情况下,马斯克也失去了全球首富的宝座。</p>\n<p>《福布斯》数据显示,目前全球首富是奢侈品巨头LVMH集团董事长Bernard Arnault,身价1909亿美元,马斯克凭借1740亿美元身价位居第二。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"958\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20221215/606/w2048h958/20221215/ffa9-34ffd56ea19ace772a1c5f876a1192b4.jpg\" w=\"2048\"/>\n<h2>图片来源:福布斯官网</h2>\n</figure>\n<p>受伤的不止马斯克,还有一众投资者。美国知名财经媒体《投资者商业日报》对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">标普全球</a>市场情报和MarketSmith的数据分析发现,自4月25日推特董事会接受马斯克的收购报价以来,包括ETF 巨头先锋、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a> (BlackRock) 和马斯克本人在内的特斯拉10大投资者,损失高达1325亿美元。</p>\n<p>收购推特引麻烦?</p>\n<p>今年4月以来,马斯克在收购推特这件事上来回拉扯,终于在10月斥资440亿美元成功入主。在收购推特背后,马斯克还多次抛售特斯拉股票。</p>\n<p>美国证券交易委员会文件显示,马斯克于12月12日-14日共计售出2200万股的特斯拉股票,价值35.8亿美元。此前马斯克约持有4.462亿股特斯拉,以此计算,本周抛售的股票数占其持股总数近5%,比例较高。此外,据BBC统计,在过去一年中,他出售的特斯拉股票总额近400亿美元。</p>\n<p>但业界对于这门生意并不看好。自马斯克于10月27日正式收购推特以来,整顿管理层、裁员、推特转型等掀起一轮轮话题,但这对于特斯拉股价毫无帮助。从收购至今,特斯拉股价已经跌去三成。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"1101\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20221215/329/w828h1101/20221215/d657-09e5798d5a246b2d77d9522644b6a465.jpg\" w=\"828\"/>\n</figure>\n<p>美国证监会文件。</p>\n<div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div><p>据外媒报道,为推进推特改革,马斯克还调动旗下公司提供支援,授权SpaceX、特斯拉和Boring Company的高管来推特工作。投资者担心,马斯克收购推特可能会影响到他在特斯拉的工作,还可能会抛售更多特斯拉股票来支持推特。</p>\n<p>特斯拉股价不断下跌,曾自称马斯克“粉丝”的特斯拉最大散户股东廖凯原呼吁,公司应该通过回购股票的方式来拉高股价。12月12日,廖凯原更是发文抱怨:“马斯克放弃了特斯拉,特斯拉没有首席执行官。”</p>\n<p>此外,马斯克的的推文处处树敌,招致不少批评。Nia Impact Capital创始人兼特斯拉股东Kristin Hull在推特上批评说:“特斯拉品牌存在很多问题,董事会无法控制CEO。”</p>\n<p>“埃隆是一位杰出的商业领袖。但他很快会意识到,他两极分化的政治观点正在损害客户对特斯拉的看法,”特斯拉多头Gary Black在周三的推文中写道,“客户不希望他们的汽车有争议,他们驾驶时想要的是自豪,而非尴尬。”</p>\n<p>看多看空,机构观点不一</p>\n<p>从种种迹象来看,投资者的担忧不无道理。销量方面,今年特斯拉已经被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>超越,失去了新能源汽车全球销冠的宝座。</p>\n<p>新车量产也并不顺利,发布于2019年的特斯拉电动皮卡Cybertruck凭借其科幻造型,两年多的时间收获了超100万辆订单。但交付时间却一再跳票,被竞争对手Rivian R1T和福特F-150闪电皮卡超越。</p>\n<p>今年以来,特斯拉股价表现落后于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>、福特、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等主要汽车制造商和科技公司。</p>\n<p>目前,部分投行对特斯拉的前景感到悲观。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RY\">加拿大皇家银行</a>将特斯拉目标价从325美元下调至225美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在最新报告中,将特斯拉的目标股价从305美元下调至235美元,理由是需求疲软。此外,高盛还下调了特斯拉第四季度的交付预期。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>分析师Adam Jonas在最新报告中也表示,未来几年美国电动汽车的普及速度将比此前预期的慢得多。Jonas目前预计,2025年电动汽车将占美国汽车市场的11%,2030年将达到26%。这低于他之前预测的美国电动汽车普及率分别为13%和32%。</p>\n<p>不过,Jonas表示,特斯拉的股票仍是其2023年的首选。他表示:“特斯拉是唯一一家能够以如此高的利润率销售电动汽车的公司,并且在电池供应链中拥有前所未有的地位。随着赛博卡车和Semi在2023年的推出,该公司正在扩大其汽车产品阵容。”</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"834\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20221215/482/w2048h834/20221215/09ca-257a40beca7a7b4cde1a9f963b1765f9.jpg\" w=\"2048\"/>\n<h2>Cybertruck,图片来自特斯拉官网</h2>\n</figure>\n<p>也有部分投资人认为目前是抄底特斯拉股票的好机会。12月14日,方舟投资管理公司的创始人兼首席执行官“木头姐”Cathie Wood买入了近7.5万股特斯拉股票。</p>\n<p>以投资大胆著称的Wood自10月起就开始抄底特斯拉的股票,11月以来又在不断加仓币圈资产。她一直强调,电动汽车和加密市场是未来主流之势。特斯拉股票是方舟主要基金的重仓股之一,目前方舟持有特斯拉公司约0.13%的股份。</p>\n<p>此外,公开资料显示,截至今年9月30日,特斯拉的主要机构投资者包括先锋集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">黑石</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">道富银行</a>、北方信托和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>等,并且第三季度这些机构还在增持特斯拉的股票。</p>\n<p>对于特斯拉股价跌跌不休,盘古智库高级研究员江瀚向时代财经表示,此前特斯拉股价是被高估的,市场看好的是其背后的新能源赛道,同时也存在一定盲目性。与丰田等传统车企相比,特斯拉的业绩基本面相对不足,只有用持续的高增长,才能支撑起被高估的股价。</p>\n<p>“从长期的角度来看,特斯拉的发展需要一个价值回归的过程,股价泡沫进一步被挤出,可以推动特斯拉发展的整体向好。但特斯拉也需要注意,如果股价进一步下跌,一定程度上会损害其融资能力,给公司带来风险。”</p>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/>\n</div>\n</body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉年内市值蒸发5万亿!马斯克痛失世界首富,分析师:股价或再跌8成</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉年内市值蒸发5万亿!马斯克痛失世界首富,分析师:股价或再跌8成\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-15 23:03 北京时间 <a href=https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-12-16/detail-imxwuqpm9909573.d.html?vt=4><strong>时代周报猛犸工...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉股价年内累计跌幅已达60%。\n随着股价大跌,马斯克从世界首富宝座上跌落。\n今年以来,特斯拉股价“跌跌不休”。截至当地时间12月14日美股收盘,特斯拉再跌2.58%,报156.8美元,年内累计跌幅已经达60%;总市值仅剩4913.28亿美元,较年初跌去约7442亿美元(约合人民币51813亿元)。这也是其市值自2020年11月以来首次跌破5000亿美元大关。\n特斯拉大空头、GLJ ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-12-16/detail-imxwuqpm9909573.d.html?vt=4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://k.sinaimg.cn/n/finance/transform/667/w400h267/20221216/4afc-47050d78c40756c9bd927f3baba84ecf.jpg/w120h90l50t1ffd.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) 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INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/it/2022-12-16/detail-imxwuqpm9909573.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291401484","content_text":"特斯拉股价年内累计跌幅已达60%。\n随着股价大跌,马斯克从世界首富宝座上跌落。\n今年以来,特斯拉股价“跌跌不休”。截至当地时间12月14日美股收盘,特斯拉再跌2.58%,报156.8美元,年内累计跌幅已经达60%;总市值仅剩4913.28亿美元,较年初跌去约7442亿美元(约合人民币51813亿元)。这也是其市值自2020年11月以来首次跌破5000亿美元大关。\n特斯拉大空头、GLJ Research分析师Gordon Johnson更是语出惊人:预计特斯拉股价到明年年底将跌至其23美元的目标价。换言之,按其预计,特斯拉股价或还有超85%的跌幅。\n\n\n图片来源:特斯拉\n\nJohnson在一次采访中表示:“我们发现特斯拉只是一家普通的汽车公司,产能超过了他们的销售能力。”他认为,特斯拉不是一家科技公司,不应像科技公司那样定价,并补充说,他预计特斯拉的股票将继续面临抛售压力。\n空头和多头谁将取胜,还言之尚早,但这场股价暴跌,马斯克或是目前的最大输家。\n痛失“世界首富”宝座\n尽管特斯拉股价全年基本都在下滑,但过去几个月跌势进一步加剧。\n自10月27日入主推特以来,特斯拉股价已经下跌了29%,远逊于同期标准普尔500指数6.6%的涨幅。在特斯拉市值持续缩水的情况下,马斯克也失去了全球首富的宝座。\n《福布斯》数据显示,目前全球首富是奢侈品巨头LVMH集团董事长Bernard Arnault,身价1909亿美元,马斯克凭借1740亿美元身价位居第二。\n\n\n图片来源:福布斯官网\n\n受伤的不止马斯克,还有一众投资者。美国知名财经媒体《投资者商业日报》对标普全球市场情报和MarketSmith的数据分析发现,自4月25日推特董事会接受马斯克的收购报价以来,包括ETF 巨头先锋、贝莱德 (BlackRock) 和马斯克本人在内的特斯拉10大投资者,损失高达1325亿美元。\n收购推特引麻烦?\n今年4月以来,马斯克在收购推特这件事上来回拉扯,终于在10月斥资440亿美元成功入主。在收购推特背后,马斯克还多次抛售特斯拉股票。\n美国证券交易委员会文件显示,马斯克于12月12日-14日共计售出2200万股的特斯拉股票,价值35.8亿美元。此前马斯克约持有4.462亿股特斯拉,以此计算,本周抛售的股票数占其持股总数近5%,比例较高。此外,据BBC统计,在过去一年中,他出售的特斯拉股票总额近400亿美元。\n但业界对于这门生意并不看好。自马斯克于10月27日正式收购推特以来,整顿管理层、裁员、推特转型等掀起一轮轮话题,但这对于特斯拉股价毫无帮助。从收购至今,特斯拉股价已经跌去三成。\n\n\n\n美国证监会文件。\n据外媒报道,为推进推特改革,马斯克还调动旗下公司提供支援,授权SpaceX、特斯拉和Boring Company的高管来推特工作。投资者担心,马斯克收购推特可能会影响到他在特斯拉的工作,还可能会抛售更多特斯拉股票来支持推特。\n特斯拉股价不断下跌,曾自称马斯克“粉丝”的特斯拉最大散户股东廖凯原呼吁,公司应该通过回购股票的方式来拉高股价。12月12日,廖凯原更是发文抱怨:“马斯克放弃了特斯拉,特斯拉没有首席执行官。”\n此外,马斯克的的推文处处树敌,招致不少批评。Nia Impact Capital创始人兼特斯拉股东Kristin Hull在推特上批评说:“特斯拉品牌存在很多问题,董事会无法控制CEO。”\n“埃隆是一位杰出的商业领袖。但他很快会意识到,他两极分化的政治观点正在损害客户对特斯拉的看法,”特斯拉多头Gary Black在周三的推文中写道,“客户不希望他们的汽车有争议,他们驾驶时想要的是自豪,而非尴尬。”\n看多看空,机构观点不一\n从种种迹象来看,投资者的担忧不无道理。销量方面,今年特斯拉已经被比亚迪超越,失去了新能源汽车全球销冠的宝座。\n新车量产也并不顺利,发布于2019年的特斯拉电动皮卡Cybertruck凭借其科幻造型,两年多的时间收获了超100万辆订单。但交付时间却一再跳票,被竞争对手Rivian R1T和福特F-150闪电皮卡超越。\n今年以来,特斯拉股价表现落后于通用汽车、福特、苹果和亚马逊等主要汽车制造商和科技公司。\n目前,部分投行对特斯拉的前景感到悲观。加拿大皇家银行将特斯拉目标价从325美元下调至225美元。高盛在最新报告中,将特斯拉的目标股价从305美元下调至235美元,理由是需求疲软。此外,高盛还下调了特斯拉第四季度的交付预期。\nMorgan Stanley分析师Adam Jonas在最新报告中也表示,未来几年美国电动汽车的普及速度将比此前预期的慢得多。Jonas目前预计,2025年电动汽车将占美国汽车市场的11%,2030年将达到26%。这低于他之前预测的美国电动汽车普及率分别为13%和32%。\n不过,Jonas表示,特斯拉的股票仍是其2023年的首选。他表示:“特斯拉是唯一一家能够以如此高的利润率销售电动汽车的公司,并且在电池供应链中拥有前所未有的地位。随着赛博卡车和Semi在2023年的推出,该公司正在扩大其汽车产品阵容。”\n\n\nCybertruck,图片来自特斯拉官网\n\n也有部分投资人认为目前是抄底特斯拉股票的好机会。12月14日,方舟投资管理公司的创始人兼首席执行官“木头姐”Cathie Wood买入了近7.5万股特斯拉股票。\n以投资大胆著称的Wood自10月起就开始抄底特斯拉的股票,11月以来又在不断加仓币圈资产。她一直强调,电动汽车和加密市场是未来主流之势。特斯拉股票是方舟主要基金的重仓股之一,目前方舟持有特斯拉公司约0.13%的股份。\n此外,公开资料显示,截至今年9月30日,特斯拉的主要机构投资者包括先锋集团、黑石、道富银行、北方信托和摩根大通等,并且第三季度这些机构还在增持特斯拉的股票。\n对于特斯拉股价跌跌不休,盘古智库高级研究员江瀚向时代财经表示,此前特斯拉股价是被高估的,市场看好的是其背后的新能源赛道,同时也存在一定盲目性。与丰田等传统车企相比,特斯拉的业绩基本面相对不足,只有用持续的高增长,才能支撑起被高估的股价。\n“从长期的角度来看,特斯拉的发展需要一个价值回归的过程,股价泡沫进一步被挤出,可以推动特斯拉发展的整体向好。但特斯拉也需要注意,如果股价进一步下跌,一定程度上会损害其融资能力,给公司带来风险。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":954433358,"gmtCreate":1593006230274,"gmtModify":1704200923825,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有股东没有6个月锁定期,所以大家小心,跌透了在看,最好买前先查查哪些股东在出货,否则,是无底","listText":"有股东没有6个月锁定期,所以大家小心,跌透了在看,最好买前先查查哪些股东在出货,否则,是无底","text":"有股东没有6个月锁定期,所以大家小心,跌透了在看,最好买前先查查哪些股东在出货,否则,是无底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954433358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965356824,"gmtCreate":1583914284068,"gmtModify":1704351529276,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"确实大言不惭,以为全球的资金会是傻子","listText":"确实大言不惭,以为全球的资金会是傻子","text":"确实大言不惭,以为全球的资金会是傻子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965356824","repostId":"1163446067","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198679,"gmtCreate":1528215406677,"gmtModify":1704894185771,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"title":"博士支持","htmlText":"$好未来(TAL)$ **谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂 中华人民共和国中央人民政府门户网站06-05 10:27 【**谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂】**总理6月4日考察宁夏银川市永宁县闽宁中学“互联网+教育”发展状况。宁夏通过打造教育资源公共服务平台,全区中小学校互联网接入率已达到100%。在该校的“智慧教室”,学生们人手一个平板电脑,向总理展示上面集成的优质教育课件和彼此分享的学习心得。**说,“互联网+教育”让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂,大大拓宽了他们的视野。针对当地网速慢、信息化基础设施落后等困难,**要求有关部门要在这方面加大投入。他说,“互联网+教育”是促进起点公平的有效手段。","listText":"$好未来(TAL)$ **谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂 中华人民共和国中央人民政府门户网站06-05 10:27 【**谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂】**总理6月4日考察宁夏银川市永宁县闽宁中学“互联网+教育”发展状况。宁夏通过打造教育资源公共服务平台,全区中小学校互联网接入率已达到100%。在该校的“智慧教室”,学生们人手一个平板电脑,向总理展示上面集成的优质教育课件和彼此分享的学习心得。**说,“互联网+教育”让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂,大大拓宽了他们的视野。针对当地网速慢、信息化基础设施落后等困难,**要求有关部门要在这方面加大投入。他说,“互联网+教育”是促进起点公平的有效手段。","text":"$好未来(TAL)$ **谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂 中华人民共和国中央人民政府门户网站06-05 10:27 【**谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂】**总理6月4日考察宁夏银川市永宁县闽宁中学“互联网+教育”发展状况。宁夏通过打造教育资源公共服务平台,全区中小学校互联网接入率已达到100%。在该校的“智慧教室”,学生们人手一个平板电脑,向总理展示上面集成的优质教育课件和彼此分享的学习心得。**说,“互联网+教育”让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂,大大拓宽了他们的视野。针对当地网速慢、信息化基础设施落后等困难,**要求有关部门要在这方面加大投入。他说,“互联网+教育”是促进起点公平的有效手段。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198679","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107396,"gmtCreate":1509118486732,"gmtModify":1704882806028,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"title":"TAL财报详读","htmlText":"证券研究报告事件:好未来(TAL.N)10月26日发布FY2018Q2财报(2017年6月1日—2017年8月31日)。报告期内,公司实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比增加68.1%;净利润5945.1万美元,同比增加6.7%。点评:单季学员人数翻倍,二季度营收略超预期。(1)收入方面,公司2018Q2实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比大增68.1%,略超预期(此前指引预计为58%-60%),主要得益于单季度招生人数同比大增100.6%。拆分收入来看,小班、1V1、在线课程占比分别为达81%、12%、6%。其中,小班课程仍为公司增长核心驱动力,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达62%、77%。线上部分学而思网校保持高增长态势,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达144%、约200%。(2)成本费用方面,报告期内,公司销售费用率为12.84%(+2.29pct)、管理费用率为19.16%(-3.45pct),系线下教学点数量持续扩张、暑期促销活动推进及内部管理优化所致。受此影响,公司净利率较去年同期下降7.42pct。(3)净利润方面,公司Q2净利润同比增速6.7%远低于营收增速,主要原因为去年同期其他收益净额-非经营(Other (expense)/income)一项大增2380万美元,从而导致去年净利润基数较高。剔除该部分非经营性因素影响,我们测算公司本期实际净利润增速约40%。内生外扩稳步推进,教育航母呼之欲出。(1)内生方面:公司在以北京为主的一线城市内小范围实行暑假新初一和新高一入口级促销策略,有效控制费用的同时实现学员人数翻倍,单季度学员人次达224.24万人。预计较高的新生续费率(约50%)将对公司未来2-3个季度产生积极正向影响,2017年财报季度走势便是明证。同时,公司持续优化内部组织架构,将业务相关的事业部整合为5大事业群,运营效率持续优化。(2)外扩方面:一方面,公司教学点铺","listText":"证券研究报告事件:好未来(TAL.N)10月26日发布FY2018Q2财报(2017年6月1日—2017年8月31日)。报告期内,公司实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比增加68.1%;净利润5945.1万美元,同比增加6.7%。点评:单季学员人数翻倍,二季度营收略超预期。(1)收入方面,公司2018Q2实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比大增68.1%,略超预期(此前指引预计为58%-60%),主要得益于单季度招生人数同比大增100.6%。拆分收入来看,小班、1V1、在线课程占比分别为达81%、12%、6%。其中,小班课程仍为公司增长核心驱动力,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达62%、77%。线上部分学而思网校保持高增长态势,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达144%、约200%。(2)成本费用方面,报告期内,公司销售费用率为12.84%(+2.29pct)、管理费用率为19.16%(-3.45pct),系线下教学点数量持续扩张、暑期促销活动推进及内部管理优化所致。受此影响,公司净利率较去年同期下降7.42pct。(3)净利润方面,公司Q2净利润同比增速6.7%远低于营收增速,主要原因为去年同期其他收益净额-非经营(Other (expense)/income)一项大增2380万美元,从而导致去年净利润基数较高。剔除该部分非经营性因素影响,我们测算公司本期实际净利润增速约40%。内生外扩稳步推进,教育航母呼之欲出。(1)内生方面:公司在以北京为主的一线城市内小范围实行暑假新初一和新高一入口级促销策略,有效控制费用的同时实现学员人数翻倍,单季度学员人次达224.24万人。预计较高的新生续费率(约50%)将对公司未来2-3个季度产生积极正向影响,2017年财报季度走势便是明证。同时,公司持续优化内部组织架构,将业务相关的事业部整合为5大事业群,运营效率持续优化。(2)外扩方面:一方面,公司教学点铺","text":"证券研究报告事件:好未来(TAL.N)10月26日发布FY2018Q2财报(2017年6月1日—2017年8月31日)。报告期内,公司实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比增加68.1%;净利润5945.1万美元,同比增加6.7%。点评:单季学员人数翻倍,二季度营收略超预期。(1)收入方面,公司2018Q2实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比大增68.1%,略超预期(此前指引预计为58%-60%),主要得益于单季度招生人数同比大增100.6%。拆分收入来看,小班、1V1、在线课程占比分别为达81%、12%、6%。其中,小班课程仍为公司增长核心驱动力,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达62%、77%。线上部分学而思网校保持高增长态势,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达144%、约200%。(2)成本费用方面,报告期内,公司销售费用率为12.84%(+2.29pct)、管理费用率为19.16%(-3.45pct),系线下教学点数量持续扩张、暑期促销活动推进及内部管理优化所致。受此影响,公司净利率较去年同期下降7.42pct。(3)净利润方面,公司Q2净利润同比增速6.7%远低于营收增速,主要原因为去年同期其他收益净额-非经营(Other (expense)/income)一项大增2380万美元,从而导致去年净利润基数较高。剔除该部分非经营性因素影响,我们测算公司本期实际净利润增速约40%。内生外扩稳步推进,教育航母呼之欲出。(1)内生方面:公司在以北京为主的一线城市内小范围实行暑假新初一和新高一入口级促销策略,有效控制费用的同时实现学员人数翻倍,单季度学员人次达224.24万人。预计较高的新生续费率(约50%)将对公司未来2-3个季度产生积极正向影响,2017年财报季度走势便是明证。同时,公司持续优化内部组织架构,将业务相关的事业部整合为5大事业群,运营效率持续优化。(2)外扩方面:一方面,公司教学点铺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107396","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":63078,"gmtCreate":1496396071610,"gmtModify":1704877390163,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3437564172337995","idStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么我们坚守十四年就用这种方法做教育?2017-06-02 重庆学而思各位尊敬的家长:学而思自2003年创办以来, 始终在家长们的支持、鼓励、监督、鞭策中成长。作为课外辅导机构中的一员,学而思始终致力于用高品质的教学和服务为中小学生的基础教育做出有益补充,致力于成为家长教育孩子的有力帮手。近期媒体有一些关于我们的报道。这些报道中有赞扬,也有批评。对于赞扬,我们由衷感激;对于批评,我们虚心受教,深刻反思。其中,我们尤其要反思,学而思和家长之间缺乏更深入的沟通。我们希望把我们做教育的初心,我们的教育理念,我们的课程研发与教学培训进展等家长们关心关注的问题,都和家长们做更为深入的交流,广泛听取家长们的建议。 一、学而思为什么“要求家长听课”?家长旁听是我们提供给您的一个权利,而不是您的义务。 我们采用开放课堂模式有以下几个原因:1、我们发现,很多家长对孩子的学习情况不够了解,往往是只知道学习成绩,而不清楚学习状态,只知道结果,而不了解过程。开放课堂,让家长走进教室,亲自关注孩子的课堂表现,是一个非常好的解决方法。2、孩子的教育需要家长和老师持续沟通。每个孩子都有自己的个性和特点,家长旁听不仅会让家长和老师之间的信息传递更加高效,更有利于针对孩子的情况做个性化的规划。3、家长旁听会让学而思在“不舒适区” 不断进步。开放课堂,家长会对学而思进行全面的监督。老师讲的好不好,有没有责任心,教材质量怎么样,教学环境哪儿要改进……不仅仅是课堂,凡是和孩子学习有关的因素都会在家长监督之下,学而思哪儿做得好,哪儿有问题,家长清清楚楚。我们也有私心,这种私心就是:家长的建议批评带给我们的“不舒适”会让我们不断进步。学而思成长的每一步都离不开家长的鞭策。为了充分发挥家长旁听制度的优点,培养孩子独立学习和思考的能力,我们衷心希望家长能遵守有关家长旁听制度的一些规则:不与孩子同桌,不在课堂上发言或给孩","listText":"为什么我们坚守十四年就用这种方法做教育?2017-06-02 重庆学而思各位尊敬的家长:学而思自2003年创办以来, 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买特斯拉就是买老马的企业家精神,老马,快点服软,全心全意为特斯拉股东们服务,超苹果市值分分钟的事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621984462","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4110529004655250","authorId":"4110529004655250","name":"__3062_3065","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bdc491df6543e0a1a2d9e2b402b0ffd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4110529004655250","authorIdStr":"4110529004655250"},"content":"但这就是马斯克,不会向自己人股东投资者,亦或是敌对群体服软","text":"但这就是马斯克,不会向自己人股东投资者,亦或是敌对群体服软","html":"但这就是马斯克,不会向自己人股东投资者,亦或是敌对群体服软"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659330946,"gmtCreate":1679666148585,"gmtModify":1679666150086,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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现在才意识到降本,钱都快烧完了,一点危机感都没有,早半年降本,股价兴许到十元左右再增发,继续降本增效,业绩出来了,市值自然就上去了,哎,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659330946","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"content":"万丈深渊,一美元退市,","text":"万丈深渊,一美元退市,","html":"万丈深渊,一美元退市,"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":63078,"gmtCreate":1496396071610,"gmtModify":1704877390163,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么我们坚守十四年就用这种方法做教育?2017-06-02 重庆学而思各位尊敬的家长:学而思自2003年创办以来, 始终在家长们的支持、鼓励、监督、鞭策中成长。作为课外辅导机构中的一员,学而思始终致力于用高品质的教学和服务为中小学生的基础教育做出有益补充,致力于成为家长教育孩子的有力帮手。近期媒体有一些关于我们的报道。这些报道中有赞扬,也有批评。对于赞扬,我们由衷感激;对于批评,我们虚心受教,深刻反思。其中,我们尤其要反思,学而思和家长之间缺乏更深入的沟通。我们希望把我们做教育的初心,我们的教育理念,我们的课程研发与教学培训进展等家长们关心关注的问题,都和家长们做更为深入的交流,广泛听取家长们的建议。 一、学而思为什么“要求家长听课”?家长旁听是我们提供给您的一个权利,而不是您的义务。 我们采用开放课堂模式有以下几个原因:1、我们发现,很多家长对孩子的学习情况不够了解,往往是只知道学习成绩,而不清楚学习状态,只知道结果,而不了解过程。开放课堂,让家长走进教室,亲自关注孩子的课堂表现,是一个非常好的解决方法。2、孩子的教育需要家长和老师持续沟通。每个孩子都有自己的个性和特点,家长旁听不仅会让家长和老师之间的信息传递更加高效,更有利于针对孩子的情况做个性化的规划。3、家长旁听会让学而思在“不舒适区” 不断进步。开放课堂,家长会对学而思进行全面的监督。老师讲的好不好,有没有责任心,教材质量怎么样,教学环境哪儿要改进……不仅仅是课堂,凡是和孩子学习有关的因素都会在家长监督之下,学而思哪儿做得好,哪儿有问题,家长清清楚楚。我们也有私心,这种私心就是:家长的建议批评带给我们的“不舒适”会让我们不断进步。学而思成长的每一步都离不开家长的鞭策。为了充分发挥家长旁听制度的优点,培养孩子独立学习和思考的能力,我们衷心希望家长能遵守有关家长旁听制度的一些规则:不与孩子同桌,不在课堂上发言或给孩","listText":"为什么我们坚守十四年就用这种方法做教育?2017-06-02 重庆学而思各位尊敬的家长:学而思自2003年创办以来, 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始终在家长们的支持、鼓励、监督、鞭策中成长。作为课外辅导机构中的一员,学而思始终致力于用高品质的教学和服务为中小学生的基础教育做出有益补充,致力于成为家长教育孩子的有力帮手。近期媒体有一些关于我们的报道。这些报道中有赞扬,也有批评。对于赞扬,我们由衷感激;对于批评,我们虚心受教,深刻反思。其中,我们尤其要反思,学而思和家长之间缺乏更深入的沟通。我们希望把我们做教育的初心,我们的教育理念,我们的课程研发与教学培训进展等家长们关心关注的问题,都和家长们做更为深入的交流,广泛听取家长们的建议。 一、学而思为什么“要求家长听课”?家长旁听是我们提供给您的一个权利,而不是您的义务。 我们采用开放课堂模式有以下几个原因:1、我们发现,很多家长对孩子的学习情况不够了解,往往是只知道学习成绩,而不清楚学习状态,只知道结果,而不了解过程。开放课堂,让家长走进教室,亲自关注孩子的课堂表现,是一个非常好的解决方法。2、孩子的教育需要家长和老师持续沟通。每个孩子都有自己的个性和特点,家长旁听不仅会让家长和老师之间的信息传递更加高效,更有利于针对孩子的情况做个性化的规划。3、家长旁听会让学而思在“不舒适区” 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[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623826362","repostId":"2291401484","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":954433358,"gmtCreate":1593006230274,"gmtModify":1704200923825,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有股东没有6个月锁定期,所以大家小心,跌透了在看,最好买前先查查哪些股东在出货,否则,是无底","listText":"有股东没有6个月锁定期,所以大家小心,跌透了在看,最好买前先查查哪些股东在出货,否则,是无底","text":"有股东没有6个月锁定期,所以大家小心,跌透了在看,最好买前先查查哪些股东在出货,否则,是无底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/954433358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965356824,"gmtCreate":1583914284068,"gmtModify":1704351529276,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"确实大言不惭,以为全球的资金会是傻子","listText":"确实大言不惭,以为全球的资金会是傻子","text":"确实大言不惭,以为全球的资金会是傻子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965356824","repostId":"1163446067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163446067","pubTimestamp":1583897603,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163446067?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-11 11:33","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"牛市轮流转:全球最好的资产在中国股市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163446067","media":"兴业策略","summary":"全球负利率,西水东进,中国资产受青睐。","content":"<p>展望未来,<b>有一个确定性大趋势,即未来十年全球资产最好的在中国,中国资产最好的在股市。</b></p><p><b>2009-2018年,本轮全球资金从新兴市场转向发达市场,几乎全部流向美国。</b>2009-2018年几乎全部流向美国。2万亿美元资金净流入美国金融市场,8000亿外资进入美国股票市场,全球资本回流成为美国十年长牛的重要增量资金来源。使得美国十年标普500实现240%涨幅的长牛。</p><p><b>上一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,韩国、中国台湾相对收益。</b>1)1992至1998年的六年半时间内,韩国资本市场不断开放,1998年MSCI纳入因子提升至100%。在2003-2007年全球资金配置新兴市场过程中,外资持股比例保持在35%左右,韩国综合指数也在这一时间段中实现285%涨幅。2)1996至2002年的六年时间内,中国台湾不断放开外资直接参与股票市场的限制,中国台湾2002年完成入摩,在2003-2007年中国台湾股市受益于全球资金配置新兴市场,其股指上涨超过100%。</p><p><b>上一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,中国QFII+商业银行引入战略投资者是主要表现形式。</b>2002年11月7日,证监会和央行联合发布《合格境外机构投资者境内证券投资管理暂行办法》,QFII制度正式出台,总额度初定为40亿美元。到2008年QFII总额度也仅300亿美元。同时,商业银行引入海外的战略投资者也是那一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,配置中国的一种表现形式。如:建设银行2005年6月引入BOA,2005年7月引入TEMSEK。</p><p><b>本轮全球资金从发达市场转向新兴市场配置过程中,全球最好的资产在中国,中国最好的资产在股市。金融海啸十年以来,全球资产配置美国,美国经济、美元、美股、美债高位震荡,全球进入「负利率」时代,全球资本面临再配置。</b></p><p>1)<b>中国经济基本面稳健。</b>经过70年经济飞速发展,经济总量跃居全球第二,占全球经济份额约为20%,在新兴市场中,中国经济总量也成为了领头羊。</p><p>2)从金融开放和制度来看,我们在过去几年时间里,人民币加入SDR、陆股通、纳入MSCI、债券通……第二轮开放的红利在于金融市场,资本账户开放已经出发。<b>这也使得海外投资中国市场,从投资无门到大门敞开。</b></p><p>3)<b>中国经济体量比重大,股市外资配置比例低。</b>考虑到我们的GDP在全球占比20%,现在全球资金配置中国的比例还是比较低的。</p><p>4)<b>中国股市波动性下降,未来夏普比率提升。</b>宏观经济从生产周期型转向消费服务型,经济的波动率在下降;政策波动性下降;经历供给侧改革后,龙头公司熨平行业周期的能力是在显著增强的;从投资者结构来看,机构化特征使得股票波动率是在下降的。</p><p>5)<b>新《证券法》实施,股市制度越来越健全和完善。</b>经历30年发展,中国股市注册制、再融资制度、回购制度、分红制度、退市制度、对外开放制度等逐渐完善。</p><p>6)<b>我们处在新一轮科技创新周期中,结构性机会较多。</b>经过70年发展,我们正在从「投资驱动」转向「创新驱动」,新一轮创新周期所需的人力、财力、物力东风俱备;政策层面对科技成长政策催化也不断。</p><p>7)<b>中国股市与其他金融市场相关系数低,配置中国是优选项。中国和全球金融市场,尤其是和美国市场的相关系数最小。</b>在区域配置的组合里面,增加了一份和原来所有资产相关系数都非常低的资产,收益率不变的情况下,协方差更小,夏普比例应该提升的。</p><p>8)<b>全球负利率,西水东进,中国资产受青睐。</b>全球进入负利率、「资产荒」时期,中国相对性价比和配置价值凸显,西水东进,中国资产受到青睐。</p><p><b>风险提示:美国股市波动超预期、全球经济下滑超预期等。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a0833afc7deda7ad969ecb22e6afd72\" /></p><p>报告正文1. 2020s,全球最好的资产在中国,中国最好的资产在股市</p><p>过去十年,我们的生活因为智能手机的到来而发生翻天覆地的变化,每个地方的美味可随时在家品尝,每个地方的美景可随时在朋友圈品赏,每个地方的轶事可随时在手机上品读。</p><p>十年间,中国GDP已翻一番;十年间,我们经历了「四万亿投资」到供给侧改革;十年间,全国各地房价涨了数倍;十年间,iPhone累计销量已突破15亿台;十年间,唯一不变的是上证综指仍在3000点附近。</p><p>十年间,美国股市也实现了十年长牛,成为A股投资者纷纷羡慕的股市表现。那么对于我们A股投资者而言,展望未来十年,我们有什么确定性的机会值得把握吗?</p><p>在2020年1月6日,我们报告《策略师寻找新能源车链条的Tenbagger》中谈到,未来十年投资者需要关注以新能源汽车链条为代表的产业投资机会。那么在大势上我们十年的重要拐点在哪里呢?</p><p><b>对于A股市场大势而言,可以确定的是:</b></p><p><b>1)「外资颠覆A股」。</b>未来十年,全球资金从发达市场转向新兴市场配置的过程中,中国作为新兴市场中配置比例相对经济体量而言最低,币值相对稳定,政经环境适宜,开放步伐越来越大,A股十年经济A股低估值、高性价比,极具吸引力。全球最好资产在中国,中国最好资产是股票。(具体可参看180页深度解读ppt)。</p><p><b>2)开放的红利。</b>第一轮商品市场开放的红利,中国经济成功跃居全球第二。第二轮开放的红利在于金融市场,资本账户开放已经出发。开放的红利股市、金融市场、产业、经济等四个层面来理解都将发生深远的变化。借鉴日本、韩国、中国台湾,以及印度、巴西、南非等新兴经济体的经验,开放的红利,将使股、债、汇、房等中国优质资产价值长期得到支撑,其中最为受益的是股市。(具体可参看20190610《开放的红利——2019年下半年度投资策略》)</p><p><b>3)拥抱权益时代,A股长牛。</b>在国家重视、居民配置、机构配置、全球配置等「四重奏」指引下,真正属于中国的权益时代正式开启,A股正在经历第一次「长牛」机会。(具体可参看20191111《拥抱权益时代——2020年A股年度策略》)</p><p>2. 美股长牛,全球资金从新兴转向发达市场是重要因素</p><p><b>2.1 百年美股,五轮牛熊,2009-2018十年3倍长牛</b></p><p>回顾标普500指数近百年的走势,美股历经五轮牛熊,最近十年走出3倍长牛。</p><p>1932-1937年:罗斯福新政将美国经济从萧条中解围,美股5年间上涨300%;</p><p>1949-1966年:战后全球经济迅速复苏,叠加美国全球霸主地位的确立,盈利推动美股17年间上涨550%;</p><p>1982-2000年:里根改革奠定美国经济长达20年超级繁荣的基础,克林顿信息高速公路计划开启信息时代,流动性宽松、美元走强,美股实现「戴维斯双击」18年间上涨1300%;</p><p>2003-2007年:科网泡沫后的低利率环境促进金融地产大发展,叠加全球能源牛市,盈利推动美股5年间上涨85%;</p><p>2009-2018年:移动互联网浪潮+先进制造业觉醒,外资和被动资金入场,盈利和估值交替推动美股10年间上涨240%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7103af13cce9612ffd62c1247cb5094\" /></p><p><b>2.2 2009-2018年美国经济增长20%,领跑主要经济体</b></p><p>2009-2018的10年间,美国实际GDP累计增长接近20%,领跑主要经济体,仅落后中、印、韩。全球金融危机之后,美国宏观经济复苏的态势良好,GDP增速约2%,PCE同比处于1.5%左右的温和低通胀环境。每月新增非农就业人数保持在20万人附近的水平,失业率持续下行至3.7%并创历史新低,制造业和服务业PMI基本一直位于50上方的扩张区间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/716d468f4be4bc6ebbdfdf32370871e4\" /></p><p><b>整体来看,2009-2018年间,大部分时间维持低利率和宽松货币政策,为估值提供支持。</b>在2007-2008年的全球金融危机期间,美联储将联邦基金目标利率从5.25%下调至0.25%。一直到2015年,美国基准利率一直维持在0.25%的宽松水平,10年国债收益率也从3.5%下行至2%附近。2015年底至2018年,受经济复苏强劲、持续增长的影响,美联储开启加息,基准利率上调至2.5%,同期日本和欧洲却因为经济不景气进入了负利率时代。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46918d1d837a41c997464d72190d8b47\" /></p><p><b>2.3 2009-2018年标普500上涨240%,盈利估值贡献比2:1</b></p><p>2009-2018年标普500上涨240%,其中盈利贡献65%,估值贡献35%。根据驱动因素的不同,我们可以把美股十年长牛划分为3个阶段:</p><ul><li><p>阶段1:2009-2011年,移动互联网时代开启,引领盈利复苏</p></li><li><p>阶段2:2012-2016年,外资和被动资金入场,支撑估值提升</p></li><li><p>阶段3:2017-2018年,移动互联网+先进制造业,盈利重新主导</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca04cd5e70376ba5cb79fc31862e558\" /></p><p><b>2.4 2009-2018年全球资金从新兴转向发达市场,几乎全部流向美国</b></p><p>2009-2018年,全球资金从新兴市场转向发达市场,几乎全部流向美国,2万亿美元资金净流入美国金融市场,8000亿外资进入美国股票市场,<b>全球资本回流成为美国十年长牛的重要增量资金来源。</b></p><p>2003-2007年得益于贸易全球化的背景,新兴市场国家经济快速发展,全球价值链分工体系重构,这使得新兴市场基本面增速更快,相对发达市场具备更具吸引力,股市也跑赢发达市场。</p><p>2009-2018年,金融危机以后,全球避险情绪高涨,美元指数走强,美国经济强势复苏,叠加iphone为代表的移动互联网和制造业两大潮流,助推全球资金回流美国。<b>MSCI发达市场指数跑赢新兴市场指数,MSCI美国指数跑赢发达市场指数。</b>全球资金从新兴市场转向发达市场,大部分集中流向美国,2009-2018年有2万亿美元资金净流入美国金融市场,8000亿外资进入美国股票市场。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47dbf1fcd598970a2af8586384d8a3b5\" /></p><p>3. 上一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,韩国、中国台湾较受益</p><p><b>3.1 韩国股市享受开放后的红利,2003-2007年韩综指上涨285%</b></p><p><b>1992至1998年的六年半时间内,随着韩国金融市场开放程度的提高,韩国股市被分三次完全纳入MSCI,2018年韩国占MSCI新兴市场指数的权重达到14.8%。</b>1988年12月,韩国颁布《韩国证券市场国际化的四年中期计划》,对1981年「资本市场国际化计划」安排的后两段进程做出了更为详细的规划,扩大金融开放程度。1993年6月, 韩国政府提出全面金融改革方案,进一步放宽对于外资直接投资股票市场的限制。至1998年韩国政府取消外资持股比例限制,韩国股票市场对外开放基本完成,MSCI将韩国股市的纳入因子提升至100%。截至2018年12月,韩国占MSCI新兴市场指数权重的14.80%。此时韩国GDP达到1.6万亿美元,股票市场总市值1.4万亿美元。MSCI纳入韩国股市的关键节点为:</p><p>1) 1992年,韩国设立QFII制度,允许外资直接投资股票市场,持股比例限制为10%,韩国股市首次被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数,纳入比例为20%,纳入后占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为4.58%。</p><p>2) 1996年,外资持股比例上限调升至20%,MSCI纳入比例提升至50%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为7.98%。</p><p>3) 1998年,韩国取消外资持股比例限制,MSCI纳入比例提升至100%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为10.96%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07516575464fb93ae837ac11df8d9722\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faf5327f5cce69d428afcfb36d2fb605\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57074f4ce7fbb81b2dcadd094d252b63\" /></p><p>至1998年取消外资持股比例限制,MSCI纳入因子提升至100%,韩国股票市场基本完成国际化。外资持股数量占比从2%升至15%,为之后股市的稳定繁荣发展奠定了投资者基础。进入21世纪,伴随着全球资金配置新兴市场,已经完成金融开放的韩国,享受了这一轮全球资金配置新兴市场的红利。2003-2007年,韩国综指上涨285%,2003至2007年间,外资持股占比保持35%左右。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51b00c2413e1390353ffb13df0e45892\" /></p><p><b>3.2 中国台湾2002年完成入摩,2003-2007年其股指上涨超过100%</b></p><p><b>1996至2002年的六年时间内,中国台湾不断放开外资直接参与股票市场的限制,中国台湾股市被分四次完全纳入MSCI,2018年中国台湾占MSCI新兴市场指数的权重达到12.2%。</b>中国台湾在1990年时就开启了QFII制度,但彼时QFII的设立和运行均受到诸多方面的限制。1996年起,中国台湾从QFII资格、QFII额度、市值权重限制、投资范围、外汇管制等方面,不断放开外资直接参与股票市场的限制。MSCI也在六年时间内,分四次将中国台湾股市完全纳入新兴市场指数。截至2018年12月,中国台湾占MSCI新兴市场指数权重的12.20%。此时中国台湾GDP达到5900亿美元,股票市场总市值9600亿美元。MSCI纳入中国台湾股市的关键节点为:</p><p>1) 1996年9月,中国台湾股市首次被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数,纳入比例为50%,纳入后占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为8.46%。</p><p>2) 2000年6月,中国台湾纳入比例提升至65%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为11.51%。</p><p>3) 2000年12月,中国台湾纳入比例提升至80%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为14.39%。</p><p>4) 2002年6月,中国台湾纳入比例提升至100%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为12.81%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9fcfad5704ae53fa9ab9b7c36418d49\" /></p><p>4. 上一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,QFII+商行引入战投是主要形式</p><p><b>4.1 上一轮,股市主要是QFII,但额度有限</b></p><p>2002年11月7日,证监会和央行联合发布《合格境外机构投资者境内证券投资管理暂行办法》,QFII制度正式出台,总额度初定为40亿美元。2011年12月16日,RQFII试点推出,初期仅限境内证券基金公司的香港子公司参与,试点总额度200亿元,投资股市不超过20%。随后逐渐提高额度、放宽限制,至2019年全面取消QFII和RQFII投资额度限制。</p><p>根据外管局披露的数据,截至2019年9月,QFII实际投资中国各类金融资产超过1100亿美元(历史汇率法折人民币约7200亿元),RQFII接近7000亿人民币,二者合计超过1.4万亿人民币。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f3bf63481d5f00d6eb0e291ebea94ac\" /></p><p><b>4.2 商业银行引入战略投资者是外资投资中国一种形式</b></p><p>一般来说,有三类主体引入战略投资者:(1)国有大银行:促进法人治理结构改革,推进内部体制和机制转换;(2)部分股份制银行:增资扩股,借鉴战略投资者业务发展模式;(3)部分有困难和问题的银行:降低成本,促进全面改造,防范和化解风险。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4396b24e558756b3b310aa374fc20b\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc9df831b3383b22d7b74043cd152b43\" /></p><p>5. 70年经济飞速发展,中国GDP全球第二,成为经济大国</p><p>中国被认为在这种经济权力转移中起着主导作用。随着最近的金融危机和发达经济体的持续衰退,全球经济增长的重心正日益转向新兴经济体。事实上,中国作为一个影响力越来越大的新兴经济体,目前正吸引世界各国的关注。</p><p>5.1 从全球来看,中国经济总量占全球份额20%</p><p>改革开放以来,尤其是步入2000年之后,中国的GDP实现了高速增长,GDP全球占比不断攀升,经济实力不断增强的同时国际地位显著提高。2000-2014年,我国GDP增速始终保持在10%之上的增速,2014年以后经济增速有所放缓,维持在5%的水平。此外,<b>目前我国GDP总量占比全球份额在20%的水平,当之无愧的经济大国。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df1b88cfee8b3d5dd2bd24981cfd25d\" /></p><p><b>对标国际发达国家,我国经济体量无论是在体量上还是在增速上都是一大亮点。</b>在体量上,自2000年以来,我国GDP总量不断赶超发达国家,在2010年GDP总量赶超日本,成为国际第二大经济体。在增速上,始终遥遥领先发达国家,尤其是在2005-2012年间,GDP均速接近20%,为发达国家均速的2倍多。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e0a0b22cd529214963add594dd34f30\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62e274d2278ac9e2f90d1bed307b19ef\" /></p><p><b>5.2 与新兴市场对比而言,中国成为新兴市场经济总量领头羊</b></p><p><b>对标新兴市场国家,我国GDP总量远超过其他新兴市场国家,且体量差距愈来愈大。</b>我国同其他新兴市场国家在起步上相似,起步较晚,且初始体量都很低。</p><p>但是自2000年以来,我国GDP总量实现高速增长,GDP变增长为初始的12倍多,成为新兴市场的领头羊,经济体量向发达国家看齐。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e18de5453d57a0b7386313767bfeed2\" /></p><p><b>人均GDP增速惊人、增幅可观。</b>同GDP总量发展历程类似,我国人均GDP自2000以来同样增长迅速,人均GDP变为初始的9倍,年均速达到13%,其中2000-2012年间均速达到15.6%,2012年以后增速有所放缓。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b415e846448713b52a436fee0f461424\" /></p><p>6.本轮全球资金配置新兴市场,中国股市较受益正在发生</p><p><b>6.1 金融开放,外资投资中国市场,从投资无门到大门敞开</b></p><p>除了金融供给侧导致信用风险的刚兑被打破之外,对中国而言最大的变化就是金融开放。2000年之后,这20年主要是开放,2001年加入WTO,我们迎来经常账户更大程度的开放,带来开放的红利。2015年开始,从外汇、股票,再到债券,金融开放正在加速。但实质性超预期发生自2017年。北上资金流入,债市开放程度也全面提速。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/116340baefc7f77ea731173566fff9b2\" /></p><p><b>6.2 中国经济体量比重大,股市外资配置比例低</b></p><p>目前跟踪MSCI、FTSE的资金规模接近10万亿美元。与中国作为全球第二大经济体、GDP占G20国家的20%相比,未来全球资金配置中国股市的比例将进一步提升。</p><p>我们研究发现,所有金融市场经历过金融大开放的经济体,资本市场无一例外全是牛市,无非是短牛还是长牛而已,像日本金融大开放的时候,从1975年到1982年涨了7年,印度90年代初期做金融开放以后,整个股市涨了30年,指数翻了10倍,这个是巨大的红利。</p><p>我们看看从2014年沪港通、2017年深港通、2018年债券通纳入MSCI,2019年MSCI比例提高,大家注意到,这个就是非常典型的制度红利。目前市场较为关心的是外资对A股市场的配置,外资流入中国核心资产,兴业证券策略团队从2017年开始写系列报告,现在实际外资配置中国的比例还不是特别大,也就是1.6万亿人民币市值。考虑到我们的GDP在全球占比还是16%,还是差的远,空间是非常大的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04cd8e16b5285fdc927d8fa3438eae97\" /></p><p><b>中国经济体量巨大,股市外资配置占比较小。</b>回顾韩国和中国台湾地区的入摩历程,二者用时6年左右实现完全纳入。纳入时GDP的体量处于3000~5000亿美元的数量级,股票市场总市值低于5000亿美元,而当时MSCI新兴市场指数市值处于7000~10000亿美元的水平。</p><p>目前中国GDP接近14万亿美元,A股市值7.8万亿美元,相比之下目前MSCI新兴市场指数市值仅5.5万亿美元。但因体量过大,已纳入20%,短期进程可能会适当放缓,中长期大趋势不变。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0593bd0559ae4bf4365462f10887c94c\" /></p><p><b>6.3 中国股市波动性下降,未来夏普比率提升</b></p><p>以下四个因素共同导致我们的夏普比例是提升的。</p><p>第一是因为经济的波动率在下降,中国经济从过去的生产周期型逐步走向消费服务性,稳定性是在增加的,而且经济总体量大,稳定性也是在增强的。</p><p>第二,政策的波动性在下降,无论是货币政策还是财政政策,现在大概率不会再使用大水漫灌的方式去刺激经济了。</p><p>第三,从产业和公司的角度去看,中国经历了龙头化、集中化、竞争格局的优化,龙头公司熨平行业周期的能力是在显著增强的。</p><p>第四,从投资者结构来看,长钱和机构化的钱配置到股票以后,股票波动率是在下降的,包括他们的换手率,典型的就是现在外资买入A股市值规模前50的股票,波动率都是非常明显的下降。</p><p>这四个因素共同造成了A股未来夏普比率是在提升,这个是A股最大的价值。所以在整个开放牛和配置牛的情况下,夏普比例在提升,这是核心的要素。未来A股市场有可能经历这样的一个过程,可能每年的收益率不是很高,10%左右,但有可能每一年都是10%,维持10年。它是远好于我们过去快牛快熊那种情况,所以这就是A股市场正在经历的一个长牛。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ab2f38ee7a8d9f53fa62fdff615133\" /></p><p><b>6.4 新《证券法》实施,股市制度越来越健全和完善</b></p><p>核准制转向注册制(201311至今):2013年11月30日发布的《中国证监会关于进一步推进新股发行体制改革的意见》,明确提出股票发行审核以信息披露为中心,明确了未来股票发行向注册制过渡。2015年注册制呼之欲出,但受到2015年A股市场大幅波动影响,注册制一拖再拖。2018年科创板注册制问世表达中央对于注册制落实的决心,2019年证监会发文将创造条件推进创业板注册制改革,新《证券法》过审明确2020年3月1日起正式实施注册制,资本市场大松绑。</p><p>注册制的推出,有望为市场引入新鲜血液,有助于优质的创新型企业留在国内资本市场,并且突出市场的优胜劣汰功能。随着这些优质创新型企业发展壮大,国内投资者也有望充分、便捷地享受到这些优质创新型企业的发展红利,对市场形成正反馈,帮助资本市场实现长期健康发展。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97404d602d9158d1194e8b3f899c5f45\" /></p><p>2015年,证监会、财政部、国资委、银监会等四部委联合发布《关于鼓励上市公司兼并重组、现金分红及回购股份的通知》,积极鼓励上市公司现金分红,有助于完善股东回报机制,引导价值投资长期投资。</p><p>2019年我国A股分红派发金额首次超过万亿,分红规模每年稳步增长。2018年,我国上市公司整体现金分红派息率达到36%,达到近十年的新高。A股大市值公司股息率高于整体,截止到11月20日,A股整体股息率为1.8%,沪深300和上证50的股息率分别是3%和2.4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f02af7c353bb624535669d6e90a77c\" /></p><p>从股市资金供需来看,A股2018和2019年净融资额占流通市值的比例为-0.5%,考虑到未来回购和分红规模仍将快速增长,股市供需有望趋向良性循环。制度基础不断完善,注册制、再融资、回购制度和分红制度等多项改革同步推进,股市资金供需良性平衡格局将会极大助益A股走出长牛。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15add8ec096f35c12174805b2184052\" /></p><p>退市标准自2012年的改革开始呈现财务类、规范类、市场类等多样化趋势,但公共安全、社会安全方面的始终属于法律空白地带,再加之近年来上市公司侵害公共安全事件频发,进而助推退市制度进一步趋严。中国股市「严进严出」机制使得壳资源价格居高不下,一些劣质公司突击重组、经营行为短期化,扭曲了退市制度优胜劣汰的功能。中小投资者、甚至机构投资者蜂拥买卖ST股票,以赌博心态恶炒ST股票现象屡见不鲜,个别ST公司的市盈率远远高于大盘蓝筹股,形成畸形的市场定价机制。在这样问题频发的背景下,「退市制度」重塑势在必行,「史上最严退市制度」应运而生。</p><p>截至2020年2月,A股退市的公司总计130家,剔出因吸收合并等原因主动退市的31家公司,仅有99家为被动退市。其中,一半以上的公司是由于连续三年亏损而触发强制退市的;其他不符合挂牌的公司退市数量高达12家,并且绝大多数为「史上最严退市制度」出台之后被强制退市的。典型代表为长生公司,「假疫苗」事件16个月后,长生生物因社会公众安全类重大违法退市规则,依法强制退市。另外,面值不足一元退市的公司主要集中于连续三年亏损和其他不符合挂牌的情形,*ST华业、*ST雏鹰、*ST印纪为「面值退市」的典型代表。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52f3a1dbdca8b6abe3905ceba7d0b97e\" /></p><p><b>6.5 我们处在新一轮科技创新周期中,结构性机会较多</b></p><p><b>从波特经济发展四阶段理论来看,中国进入创新时代。</b>人类社会自第一次工业革命后,经济产业历史就不断向前推进。每个国家的产业相对优势、国家竞争力也在不断的演进,或有进步,或有倒退,而国家竞争力因为其每个阶段所处的主导因素和发展阶段不同。</p><p><b>波特在其《国家竞争优势》中论述到每一个国家的发展将经历生产要素驱动、投资驱动、创新驱动和财富驱动等四个发展阶段。</b></p><p>现阶段类似如资源丰富的沙特石油、巴西咖啡豆、大豆等仍然依靠生产要素驱动经济发展。20世纪50年代到70年代的韩国、新加坡,或者亚洲「四小龙」、「四小虎」时代,其主要的经济发展模式是投资驱动经济发展。如今的主要发达国家,美国、德国和日本等则是创新驱动经济发展的典范。英国在经历了三个阶段发展以后,创新活力相比于以前大幅度下降,则进入依靠其财富驱动经济发展的阶段。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9069f0d73383441dd4fe221ad024ed15\" /></p><p><b>中国目前处在由投资驱动转向创新驱动发展阶段。</b>新中国成立以来,我们在1956年-1981年(1978年),主要的经济驱动发展模式是生产要素驱动。从1981年-2017年,我们国家的主要经济驱动力是以地产、基建为代表的投资驱动。而这些时间点的变化,与我们社会主要矛盾的变化是基本一致和对应的,即从最开始的建设先进工业国到落后生产力再到不平衡不充分。那么站在当前这个时间点,面对新时代的转型需求,我们认为根据实际发展情况,我们在2017年以后,将逐步进行以创新驱动经济发展来弥补我们不平衡不充分发展的问题,逐步进入第三个经济发展阶段,即创新发展驱动。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10f0d871027dc8d3167fdd001bf05482\" /></p><p>中国目前处在由投资驱动转向创新驱动发展阶段。基于推动经济增长的三个要素:技术(A)、资本(K)和劳动(L),我们认为08年金融危机后政府推出的「四万亿」计划和人口红利的消失,使得原有依靠资本和劳动来推动经济发展的动力正在边际递减,而在当前这个时间点,可能更需要技术(A)创新和进步来推动经济的发展。</p><p><b>6.5.1、人力:人才储备不断完善</b></p><p>从索洛模型之人才(L)来看,中国逐步成为全球的人才高地。新技术研发需要高素质人才是必不可少的条件。而受益于国内经济成为全球第二大经济体和国内稳定的政治经济局面,使得海外高端人才逐步归国、千人计划的引领作用也越来越强大。同时,高等教育人数快速增长给创新带来广泛的基础人才,技术型人才不断涌入创新创业队伍,使得我国已经具备了创新发展所需要的人才基础。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40927400b6e8dc1dee1caccb6d97abe0\" /></p><p><b>6.5.2、财力:PE/VC持续加大对创新行业的投入</b></p><p>从索洛模型之资本(K)来看,创新型企业越来越容易获得资本的青睐。新技术要想转换成先进生产力,需要资本的支持。2015年6月以来,虽然在二级市场上创业板的表现一落千丈,但在以PE/VC为代表的一级市场领域上,资本对技术创新方向的关注度依然不减。随着鼓励创新的政策不断出台,PE/VC的投资规模在快速上升。巨额的投资对创新型中小企业的推动力量十分巨大,未来有望涌现出一批创新成功的新企业。今年以来,PE/VC投资金额居前的行业分别是信息技术、可选消费、医疗保健、金融、工业。由于一级市场往往对二级市场有先导性效应,伴随着近几年PE/VC的大规模投入,未来市场有望孵化出一批代表性的创新企业,从而为二级市场不断注入新的活力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6b8a79220fcafaa8ab52e4e6afde5d\" /></p><p><b>6.5.3、物力:5G时代技术领先,基础设施具备先发优势</b></p><p>从索洛模型之技术(A)来看,物联网、车联网、5G等正在开启全球新一轮技术创新阶段。而在这一技术创新阶段,我国将逐步走在世界的前列,为我们的经济新动力添砖加瓦。同时,从专利角度来看,中国专利数量逐步接近日本,成为全球创新产出的第二大国,大约是美国的80%。从技术产业化角度来看,我们已经具备了在技术创新上开启新一轮增长的基本条件。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf50e3513f6a5a12769a2e2778d99724\" /></p><p>5G时代的领先技术推动基础设施建设更早更快落地。与过去3G、4G时代的建设不同,5G时期我国掌握了更多的自主知识产权,部分如厂商与华为等已可以进行标准的制定,从而使得在未来5G推进的过程中有望与国外同步甚至领先于国外。此外,近年来我国在计算机领域的云与大数据、半导体和新能源领域的设备制造等领域均有不错的表现,万物智能化、互联化所需的大规模信息基础设施建设投入可能比以往更快更早地到来,新「To B」产业链发展的机会在不断涌现。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8045b61cc9db813b1d9ff63cd2a633df\" /></p><p><b>6.6 中国股市与其他金融市场相关系数低,配置中国是优选项</b></p><p>对于全球投资者而言,中国资产提供了独特的分散化收益。中国经济增长主要取决于国内需求,其经济基本面与其他国家的相关性相对较低。中国人民银行基本上可以根据国内经济需求来制定货币政策。我们预期,随着外国投资者进入中国市场,中国与全球债券的相关性将会加大。但中国经济规模庞大,侧重于国内市场,因此国内经济是中国资产中长期走势的主要决定因素。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a9de54e0bd4eb820f0ea3925daefa40\" /></p><p>目前,这些分散化效益明显可见。中国在短期和长期债务周期中所处的位置与大多数发达国家存在差异。最近,这些差异导致不同的政策回应。2017年,随着私人信贷增长不断取代货币,美联储逐步缩减流动性。与此同时,中国决策层积极收紧货币、财政和监管政策,降低金融杠杆,应对一些行业不可持续的过度增长。这些紧缩举措导致中国信贷增长明显减速,经济增长小幅放缓。</p><p>中国和全球金融市场,尤其是和美国市场的相关系数最小。假设是一个全球配置的基金经理,在区域配置的组合里面,增加了一份和原来所有资产相关系数都非常低的资产,收益率不变的情况下,协方差更小,夏普比例应该提升的。更重要的是,A股未来的配置价值不是来自于它的收益率上升,而是来自于夏普比例在提升,因为波动性在大大下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d52391dd5f07b3c743baac858186441\" /></p><p><b>6.7 全球负利率,西水东进,中国资产受青睐</b></p><p>2019年MSCI纳入A股,权重达20%:在2019年的询问中,全球投资者认为陆股通机制运行稳健,A股市场投资可及性提升,MSCI决定将A股纳入因子提升至20%,分三步实施,并纳入符合条件的创业板股票和中盘A股。目前A股占MSCI CHINA指数权重达到12.1%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重达到4.1%。472只A股成为MSCI标的,28%的股票属于中小板或创业板,34%的股票为中证500成分股,其余大部分均属于主板和沪深300成分股。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/255f74a21b520f858b1146a512304b0e\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4779621d866592216f5dd83f7e706d3a\" /></p><p>A股机构投资者持股市值6万亿,占全部A股自由流通市值27%,占流通市值13%,占总市值10%。其中外资持股市值1.6万亿,公募基金持股2万亿,保险社保持股1.5万亿,外资、公募、保险社保体量已基本相当。根据我们的测算,A股以100%完全纳入MSCI后,通过MSCI跟踪A股的资金规模将超过4000亿美元,其中约860亿美元为被动型资金。这将为A股引来另一股「活水」,也将进一步提升外资在A股市场中的话语权。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd33fb59583cc3f163ef2e3a943ffd75\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5da1ff2296f6567f4eb35afcb5727690\" /></p><p>风险提示</p><p>美股股市波动超预期、全球经济下滑超预期等。</p>","source":"lsy1583897507412","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>牛市轮流转:全球最好的资产在中国股市</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n牛市轮流转:全球最好的资产在中国股市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-11 11:33 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KREiFL9awatnGeh2j_i2Kg><strong>兴业策略</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>展望未来,有一个确定性大趋势,即未来十年全球资产最好的在中国,中国资产最好的在股市。2009-2018年,本轮全球资金从新兴市场转向发达市场,几乎全部流向美国。2009-2018年几乎全部流向美国。2万亿美元资金净流入美国金融市场,8000亿外资进入美国股票市场,全球资本回流成为美国十年长牛的重要增量资金来源。使得美国十年标普500实现240%涨幅的长牛。上一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,韩国、中国台湾...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KREiFL9awatnGeh2j_i2Kg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68da0043a3f7932eb6870829ddb8962d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KREiFL9awatnGeh2j_i2Kg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163446067","content_text":"展望未来,有一个确定性大趋势,即未来十年全球资产最好的在中国,中国资产最好的在股市。2009-2018年,本轮全球资金从新兴市场转向发达市场,几乎全部流向美国。2009-2018年几乎全部流向美国。2万亿美元资金净流入美国金融市场,8000亿外资进入美国股票市场,全球资本回流成为美国十年长牛的重要增量资金来源。使得美国十年标普500实现240%涨幅的长牛。上一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,韩国、中国台湾相对收益。1)1992至1998年的六年半时间内,韩国资本市场不断开放,1998年MSCI纳入因子提升至100%。在2003-2007年全球资金配置新兴市场过程中,外资持股比例保持在35%左右,韩国综合指数也在这一时间段中实现285%涨幅。2)1996至2002年的六年时间内,中国台湾不断放开外资直接参与股票市场的限制,中国台湾2002年完成入摩,在2003-2007年中国台湾股市受益于全球资金配置新兴市场,其股指上涨超过100%。上一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,中国QFII+商业银行引入战略投资者是主要表现形式。2002年11月7日,证监会和央行联合发布《合格境外机构投资者境内证券投资管理暂行办法》,QFII制度正式出台,总额度初定为40亿美元。到2008年QFII总额度也仅300亿美元。同时,商业银行引入海外的战略投资者也是那一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,配置中国的一种表现形式。如:建设银行2005年6月引入BOA,2005年7月引入TEMSEK。本轮全球资金从发达市场转向新兴市场配置过程中,全球最好的资产在中国,中国最好的资产在股市。金融海啸十年以来,全球资产配置美国,美国经济、美元、美股、美债高位震荡,全球进入「负利率」时代,全球资本面临再配置。1)中国经济基本面稳健。经过70年经济飞速发展,经济总量跃居全球第二,占全球经济份额约为20%,在新兴市场中,中国经济总量也成为了领头羊。2)从金融开放和制度来看,我们在过去几年时间里,人民币加入SDR、陆股通、纳入MSCI、债券通……第二轮开放的红利在于金融市场,资本账户开放已经出发。这也使得海外投资中国市场,从投资无门到大门敞开。3)中国经济体量比重大,股市外资配置比例低。考虑到我们的GDP在全球占比20%,现在全球资金配置中国的比例还是比较低的。4)中国股市波动性下降,未来夏普比率提升。宏观经济从生产周期型转向消费服务型,经济的波动率在下降;政策波动性下降;经历供给侧改革后,龙头公司熨平行业周期的能力是在显著增强的;从投资者结构来看,机构化特征使得股票波动率是在下降的。5)新《证券法》实施,股市制度越来越健全和完善。经历30年发展,中国股市注册制、再融资制度、回购制度、分红制度、退市制度、对外开放制度等逐渐完善。6)我们处在新一轮科技创新周期中,结构性机会较多。经过70年发展,我们正在从「投资驱动」转向「创新驱动」,新一轮创新周期所需的人力、财力、物力东风俱备;政策层面对科技成长政策催化也不断。7)中国股市与其他金融市场相关系数低,配置中国是优选项。中国和全球金融市场,尤其是和美国市场的相关系数最小。在区域配置的组合里面,增加了一份和原来所有资产相关系数都非常低的资产,收益率不变的情况下,协方差更小,夏普比例应该提升的。8)全球负利率,西水东进,中国资产受青睐。全球进入负利率、「资产荒」时期,中国相对性价比和配置价值凸显,西水东进,中国资产受到青睐。风险提示:美国股市波动超预期、全球经济下滑超预期等。报告正文1. 2020s,全球最好的资产在中国,中国最好的资产在股市过去十年,我们的生活因为智能手机的到来而发生翻天覆地的变化,每个地方的美味可随时在家品尝,每个地方的美景可随时在朋友圈品赏,每个地方的轶事可随时在手机上品读。十年间,中国GDP已翻一番;十年间,我们经历了「四万亿投资」到供给侧改革;十年间,全国各地房价涨了数倍;十年间,iPhone累计销量已突破15亿台;十年间,唯一不变的是上证综指仍在3000点附近。十年间,美国股市也实现了十年长牛,成为A股投资者纷纷羡慕的股市表现。那么对于我们A股投资者而言,展望未来十年,我们有什么确定性的机会值得把握吗?在2020年1月6日,我们报告《策略师寻找新能源车链条的Tenbagger》中谈到,未来十年投资者需要关注以新能源汽车链条为代表的产业投资机会。那么在大势上我们十年的重要拐点在哪里呢?对于A股市场大势而言,可以确定的是:1)「外资颠覆A股」。未来十年,全球资金从发达市场转向新兴市场配置的过程中,中国作为新兴市场中配置比例相对经济体量而言最低,币值相对稳定,政经环境适宜,开放步伐越来越大,A股十年经济A股低估值、高性价比,极具吸引力。全球最好资产在中国,中国最好资产是股票。(具体可参看180页深度解读ppt)。2)开放的红利。第一轮商品市场开放的红利,中国经济成功跃居全球第二。第二轮开放的红利在于金融市场,资本账户开放已经出发。开放的红利股市、金融市场、产业、经济等四个层面来理解都将发生深远的变化。借鉴日本、韩国、中国台湾,以及印度、巴西、南非等新兴经济体的经验,开放的红利,将使股、债、汇、房等中国优质资产价值长期得到支撑,其中最为受益的是股市。(具体可参看20190610《开放的红利——2019年下半年度投资策略》)3)拥抱权益时代,A股长牛。在国家重视、居民配置、机构配置、全球配置等「四重奏」指引下,真正属于中国的权益时代正式开启,A股正在经历第一次「长牛」机会。(具体可参看20191111《拥抱权益时代——2020年A股年度策略》)2. 美股长牛,全球资金从新兴转向发达市场是重要因素2.1 百年美股,五轮牛熊,2009-2018十年3倍长牛回顾标普500指数近百年的走势,美股历经五轮牛熊,最近十年走出3倍长牛。1932-1937年:罗斯福新政将美国经济从萧条中解围,美股5年间上涨300%;1949-1966年:战后全球经济迅速复苏,叠加美国全球霸主地位的确立,盈利推动美股17年间上涨550%;1982-2000年:里根改革奠定美国经济长达20年超级繁荣的基础,克林顿信息高速公路计划开启信息时代,流动性宽松、美元走强,美股实现「戴维斯双击」18年间上涨1300%;2003-2007年:科网泡沫后的低利率环境促进金融地产大发展,叠加全球能源牛市,盈利推动美股5年间上涨85%;2009-2018年:移动互联网浪潮+先进制造业觉醒,外资和被动资金入场,盈利和估值交替推动美股10年间上涨240%。2.2 2009-2018年美国经济增长20%,领跑主要经济体2009-2018的10年间,美国实际GDP累计增长接近20%,领跑主要经济体,仅落后中、印、韩。全球金融危机之后,美国宏观经济复苏的态势良好,GDP增速约2%,PCE同比处于1.5%左右的温和低通胀环境。每月新增非农就业人数保持在20万人附近的水平,失业率持续下行至3.7%并创历史新低,制造业和服务业PMI基本一直位于50上方的扩张区间。整体来看,2009-2018年间,大部分时间维持低利率和宽松货币政策,为估值提供支持。在2007-2008年的全球金融危机期间,美联储将联邦基金目标利率从5.25%下调至0.25%。一直到2015年,美国基准利率一直维持在0.25%的宽松水平,10年国债收益率也从3.5%下行至2%附近。2015年底至2018年,受经济复苏强劲、持续增长的影响,美联储开启加息,基准利率上调至2.5%,同期日本和欧洲却因为经济不景气进入了负利率时代。2.3 2009-2018年标普500上涨240%,盈利估值贡献比2:12009-2018年标普500上涨240%,其中盈利贡献65%,估值贡献35%。根据驱动因素的不同,我们可以把美股十年长牛划分为3个阶段:阶段1:2009-2011年,移动互联网时代开启,引领盈利复苏阶段2:2012-2016年,外资和被动资金入场,支撑估值提升阶段3:2017-2018年,移动互联网+先进制造业,盈利重新主导2.4 2009-2018年全球资金从新兴转向发达市场,几乎全部流向美国2009-2018年,全球资金从新兴市场转向发达市场,几乎全部流向美国,2万亿美元资金净流入美国金融市场,8000亿外资进入美国股票市场,全球资本回流成为美国十年长牛的重要增量资金来源。2003-2007年得益于贸易全球化的背景,新兴市场国家经济快速发展,全球价值链分工体系重构,这使得新兴市场基本面增速更快,相对发达市场具备更具吸引力,股市也跑赢发达市场。2009-2018年,金融危机以后,全球避险情绪高涨,美元指数走强,美国经济强势复苏,叠加iphone为代表的移动互联网和制造业两大潮流,助推全球资金回流美国。MSCI发达市场指数跑赢新兴市场指数,MSCI美国指数跑赢发达市场指数。全球资金从新兴市场转向发达市场,大部分集中流向美国,2009-2018年有2万亿美元资金净流入美国金融市场,8000亿外资进入美国股票市场。3. 上一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,韩国、中国台湾较受益3.1 韩国股市享受开放后的红利,2003-2007年韩综指上涨285%1992至1998年的六年半时间内,随着韩国金融市场开放程度的提高,韩国股市被分三次完全纳入MSCI,2018年韩国占MSCI新兴市场指数的权重达到14.8%。1988年12月,韩国颁布《韩国证券市场国际化的四年中期计划》,对1981年「资本市场国际化计划」安排的后两段进程做出了更为详细的规划,扩大金融开放程度。1993年6月, 韩国政府提出全面金融改革方案,进一步放宽对于外资直接投资股票市场的限制。至1998年韩国政府取消外资持股比例限制,韩国股票市场对外开放基本完成,MSCI将韩国股市的纳入因子提升至100%。截至2018年12月,韩国占MSCI新兴市场指数权重的14.80%。此时韩国GDP达到1.6万亿美元,股票市场总市值1.4万亿美元。MSCI纳入韩国股市的关键节点为:1) 1992年,韩国设立QFII制度,允许外资直接投资股票市场,持股比例限制为10%,韩国股市首次被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数,纳入比例为20%,纳入后占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为4.58%。2) 1996年,外资持股比例上限调升至20%,MSCI纳入比例提升至50%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为7.98%。3) 1998年,韩国取消外资持股比例限制,MSCI纳入比例提升至100%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为10.96%。至1998年取消外资持股比例限制,MSCI纳入因子提升至100%,韩国股票市场基本完成国际化。外资持股数量占比从2%升至15%,为之后股市的稳定繁荣发展奠定了投资者基础。进入21世纪,伴随着全球资金配置新兴市场,已经完成金融开放的韩国,享受了这一轮全球资金配置新兴市场的红利。2003-2007年,韩国综指上涨285%,2003至2007年间,外资持股占比保持35%左右。3.2 中国台湾2002年完成入摩,2003-2007年其股指上涨超过100%1996至2002年的六年时间内,中国台湾不断放开外资直接参与股票市场的限制,中国台湾股市被分四次完全纳入MSCI,2018年中国台湾占MSCI新兴市场指数的权重达到12.2%。中国台湾在1990年时就开启了QFII制度,但彼时QFII的设立和运行均受到诸多方面的限制。1996年起,中国台湾从QFII资格、QFII额度、市值权重限制、投资范围、外汇管制等方面,不断放开外资直接参与股票市场的限制。MSCI也在六年时间内,分四次将中国台湾股市完全纳入新兴市场指数。截至2018年12月,中国台湾占MSCI新兴市场指数权重的12.20%。此时中国台湾GDP达到5900亿美元,股票市场总市值9600亿美元。MSCI纳入中国台湾股市的关键节点为:1) 1996年9月,中国台湾股市首次被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数,纳入比例为50%,纳入后占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为8.46%。2) 2000年6月,中国台湾纳入比例提升至65%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为11.51%。3) 2000年12月,中国台湾纳入比例提升至80%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为14.39%。4) 2002年6月,中国台湾纳入比例提升至100%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重为12.81%。4. 上一轮全球资金配置新兴市场,QFII+商行引入战投是主要形式4.1 上一轮,股市主要是QFII,但额度有限2002年11月7日,证监会和央行联合发布《合格境外机构投资者境内证券投资管理暂行办法》,QFII制度正式出台,总额度初定为40亿美元。2011年12月16日,RQFII试点推出,初期仅限境内证券基金公司的香港子公司参与,试点总额度200亿元,投资股市不超过20%。随后逐渐提高额度、放宽限制,至2019年全面取消QFII和RQFII投资额度限制。根据外管局披露的数据,截至2019年9月,QFII实际投资中国各类金融资产超过1100亿美元(历史汇率法折人民币约7200亿元),RQFII接近7000亿人民币,二者合计超过1.4万亿人民币。4.2 商业银行引入战略投资者是外资投资中国一种形式一般来说,有三类主体引入战略投资者:(1)国有大银行:促进法人治理结构改革,推进内部体制和机制转换;(2)部分股份制银行:增资扩股,借鉴战略投资者业务发展模式;(3)部分有困难和问题的银行:降低成本,促进全面改造,防范和化解风险。5. 70年经济飞速发展,中国GDP全球第二,成为经济大国中国被认为在这种经济权力转移中起着主导作用。随着最近的金融危机和发达经济体的持续衰退,全球经济增长的重心正日益转向新兴经济体。事实上,中国作为一个影响力越来越大的新兴经济体,目前正吸引世界各国的关注。5.1 从全球来看,中国经济总量占全球份额20%改革开放以来,尤其是步入2000年之后,中国的GDP实现了高速增长,GDP全球占比不断攀升,经济实力不断增强的同时国际地位显著提高。2000-2014年,我国GDP增速始终保持在10%之上的增速,2014年以后经济增速有所放缓,维持在5%的水平。此外,目前我国GDP总量占比全球份额在20%的水平,当之无愧的经济大国。对标国际发达国家,我国经济体量无论是在体量上还是在增速上都是一大亮点。在体量上,自2000年以来,我国GDP总量不断赶超发达国家,在2010年GDP总量赶超日本,成为国际第二大经济体。在增速上,始终遥遥领先发达国家,尤其是在2005-2012年间,GDP均速接近20%,为发达国家均速的2倍多。5.2 与新兴市场对比而言,中国成为新兴市场经济总量领头羊对标新兴市场国家,我国GDP总量远超过其他新兴市场国家,且体量差距愈来愈大。我国同其他新兴市场国家在起步上相似,起步较晚,且初始体量都很低。但是自2000年以来,我国GDP总量实现高速增长,GDP变增长为初始的12倍多,成为新兴市场的领头羊,经济体量向发达国家看齐。人均GDP增速惊人、增幅可观。同GDP总量发展历程类似,我国人均GDP自2000以来同样增长迅速,人均GDP变为初始的9倍,年均速达到13%,其中2000-2012年间均速达到15.6%,2012年以后增速有所放缓。6.本轮全球资金配置新兴市场,中国股市较受益正在发生6.1 金融开放,外资投资中国市场,从投资无门到大门敞开除了金融供给侧导致信用风险的刚兑被打破之外,对中国而言最大的变化就是金融开放。2000年之后,这20年主要是开放,2001年加入WTO,我们迎来经常账户更大程度的开放,带来开放的红利。2015年开始,从外汇、股票,再到债券,金融开放正在加速。但实质性超预期发生自2017年。北上资金流入,债市开放程度也全面提速。6.2 中国经济体量比重大,股市外资配置比例低目前跟踪MSCI、FTSE的资金规模接近10万亿美元。与中国作为全球第二大经济体、GDP占G20国家的20%相比,未来全球资金配置中国股市的比例将进一步提升。我们研究发现,所有金融市场经历过金融大开放的经济体,资本市场无一例外全是牛市,无非是短牛还是长牛而已,像日本金融大开放的时候,从1975年到1982年涨了7年,印度90年代初期做金融开放以后,整个股市涨了30年,指数翻了10倍,这个是巨大的红利。我们看看从2014年沪港通、2017年深港通、2018年债券通纳入MSCI,2019年MSCI比例提高,大家注意到,这个就是非常典型的制度红利。目前市场较为关心的是外资对A股市场的配置,外资流入中国核心资产,兴业证券策略团队从2017年开始写系列报告,现在实际外资配置中国的比例还不是特别大,也就是1.6万亿人民币市值。考虑到我们的GDP在全球占比还是16%,还是差的远,空间是非常大的。中国经济体量巨大,股市外资配置占比较小。回顾韩国和中国台湾地区的入摩历程,二者用时6年左右实现完全纳入。纳入时GDP的体量处于3000~5000亿美元的数量级,股票市场总市值低于5000亿美元,而当时MSCI新兴市场指数市值处于7000~10000亿美元的水平。目前中国GDP接近14万亿美元,A股市值7.8万亿美元,相比之下目前MSCI新兴市场指数市值仅5.5万亿美元。但因体量过大,已纳入20%,短期进程可能会适当放缓,中长期大趋势不变。6.3 中国股市波动性下降,未来夏普比率提升以下四个因素共同导致我们的夏普比例是提升的。第一是因为经济的波动率在下降,中国经济从过去的生产周期型逐步走向消费服务性,稳定性是在增加的,而且经济总体量大,稳定性也是在增强的。第二,政策的波动性在下降,无论是货币政策还是财政政策,现在大概率不会再使用大水漫灌的方式去刺激经济了。第三,从产业和公司的角度去看,中国经历了龙头化、集中化、竞争格局的优化,龙头公司熨平行业周期的能力是在显著增强的。第四,从投资者结构来看,长钱和机构化的钱配置到股票以后,股票波动率是在下降的,包括他们的换手率,典型的就是现在外资买入A股市值规模前50的股票,波动率都是非常明显的下降。这四个因素共同造成了A股未来夏普比率是在提升,这个是A股最大的价值。所以在整个开放牛和配置牛的情况下,夏普比例在提升,这是核心的要素。未来A股市场有可能经历这样的一个过程,可能每年的收益率不是很高,10%左右,但有可能每一年都是10%,维持10年。它是远好于我们过去快牛快熊那种情况,所以这就是A股市场正在经历的一个长牛。6.4 新《证券法》实施,股市制度越来越健全和完善核准制转向注册制(201311至今):2013年11月30日发布的《中国证监会关于进一步推进新股发行体制改革的意见》,明确提出股票发行审核以信息披露为中心,明确了未来股票发行向注册制过渡。2015年注册制呼之欲出,但受到2015年A股市场大幅波动影响,注册制一拖再拖。2018年科创板注册制问世表达中央对于注册制落实的决心,2019年证监会发文将创造条件推进创业板注册制改革,新《证券法》过审明确2020年3月1日起正式实施注册制,资本市场大松绑。注册制的推出,有望为市场引入新鲜血液,有助于优质的创新型企业留在国内资本市场,并且突出市场的优胜劣汰功能。随着这些优质创新型企业发展壮大,国内投资者也有望充分、便捷地享受到这些优质创新型企业的发展红利,对市场形成正反馈,帮助资本市场实现长期健康发展。2015年,证监会、财政部、国资委、银监会等四部委联合发布《关于鼓励上市公司兼并重组、现金分红及回购股份的通知》,积极鼓励上市公司现金分红,有助于完善股东回报机制,引导价值投资长期投资。2019年我国A股分红派发金额首次超过万亿,分红规模每年稳步增长。2018年,我国上市公司整体现金分红派息率达到36%,达到近十年的新高。A股大市值公司股息率高于整体,截止到11月20日,A股整体股息率为1.8%,沪深300和上证50的股息率分别是3%和2.4%。从股市资金供需来看,A股2018和2019年净融资额占流通市值的比例为-0.5%,考虑到未来回购和分红规模仍将快速增长,股市供需有望趋向良性循环。制度基础不断完善,注册制、再融资、回购制度和分红制度等多项改革同步推进,股市资金供需良性平衡格局将会极大助益A股走出长牛。退市标准自2012年的改革开始呈现财务类、规范类、市场类等多样化趋势,但公共安全、社会安全方面的始终属于法律空白地带,再加之近年来上市公司侵害公共安全事件频发,进而助推退市制度进一步趋严。中国股市「严进严出」机制使得壳资源价格居高不下,一些劣质公司突击重组、经营行为短期化,扭曲了退市制度优胜劣汰的功能。中小投资者、甚至机构投资者蜂拥买卖ST股票,以赌博心态恶炒ST股票现象屡见不鲜,个别ST公司的市盈率远远高于大盘蓝筹股,形成畸形的市场定价机制。在这样问题频发的背景下,「退市制度」重塑势在必行,「史上最严退市制度」应运而生。截至2020年2月,A股退市的公司总计130家,剔出因吸收合并等原因主动退市的31家公司,仅有99家为被动退市。其中,一半以上的公司是由于连续三年亏损而触发强制退市的;其他不符合挂牌的公司退市数量高达12家,并且绝大多数为「史上最严退市制度」出台之后被强制退市的。典型代表为长生公司,「假疫苗」事件16个月后,长生生物因社会公众安全类重大违法退市规则,依法强制退市。另外,面值不足一元退市的公司主要集中于连续三年亏损和其他不符合挂牌的情形,*ST华业、*ST雏鹰、*ST印纪为「面值退市」的典型代表。6.5 我们处在新一轮科技创新周期中,结构性机会较多从波特经济发展四阶段理论来看,中国进入创新时代。人类社会自第一次工业革命后,经济产业历史就不断向前推进。每个国家的产业相对优势、国家竞争力也在不断的演进,或有进步,或有倒退,而国家竞争力因为其每个阶段所处的主导因素和发展阶段不同。波特在其《国家竞争优势》中论述到每一个国家的发展将经历生产要素驱动、投资驱动、创新驱动和财富驱动等四个发展阶段。现阶段类似如资源丰富的沙特石油、巴西咖啡豆、大豆等仍然依靠生产要素驱动经济发展。20世纪50年代到70年代的韩国、新加坡,或者亚洲「四小龙」、「四小虎」时代,其主要的经济发展模式是投资驱动经济发展。如今的主要发达国家,美国、德国和日本等则是创新驱动经济发展的典范。英国在经历了三个阶段发展以后,创新活力相比于以前大幅度下降,则进入依靠其财富驱动经济发展的阶段。中国目前处在由投资驱动转向创新驱动发展阶段。新中国成立以来,我们在1956年-1981年(1978年),主要的经济驱动发展模式是生产要素驱动。从1981年-2017年,我们国家的主要经济驱动力是以地产、基建为代表的投资驱动。而这些时间点的变化,与我们社会主要矛盾的变化是基本一致和对应的,即从最开始的建设先进工业国到落后生产力再到不平衡不充分。那么站在当前这个时间点,面对新时代的转型需求,我们认为根据实际发展情况,我们在2017年以后,将逐步进行以创新驱动经济发展来弥补我们不平衡不充分发展的问题,逐步进入第三个经济发展阶段,即创新发展驱动。中国目前处在由投资驱动转向创新驱动发展阶段。基于推动经济增长的三个要素:技术(A)、资本(K)和劳动(L),我们认为08年金融危机后政府推出的「四万亿」计划和人口红利的消失,使得原有依靠资本和劳动来推动经济发展的动力正在边际递减,而在当前这个时间点,可能更需要技术(A)创新和进步来推动经济的发展。6.5.1、人力:人才储备不断完善从索洛模型之人才(L)来看,中国逐步成为全球的人才高地。新技术研发需要高素质人才是必不可少的条件。而受益于国内经济成为全球第二大经济体和国内稳定的政治经济局面,使得海外高端人才逐步归国、千人计划的引领作用也越来越强大。同时,高等教育人数快速增长给创新带来广泛的基础人才,技术型人才不断涌入创新创业队伍,使得我国已经具备了创新发展所需要的人才基础。6.5.2、财力:PE/VC持续加大对创新行业的投入从索洛模型之资本(K)来看,创新型企业越来越容易获得资本的青睐。新技术要想转换成先进生产力,需要资本的支持。2015年6月以来,虽然在二级市场上创业板的表现一落千丈,但在以PE/VC为代表的一级市场领域上,资本对技术创新方向的关注度依然不减。随着鼓励创新的政策不断出台,PE/VC的投资规模在快速上升。巨额的投资对创新型中小企业的推动力量十分巨大,未来有望涌现出一批创新成功的新企业。今年以来,PE/VC投资金额居前的行业分别是信息技术、可选消费、医疗保健、金融、工业。由于一级市场往往对二级市场有先导性效应,伴随着近几年PE/VC的大规模投入,未来市场有望孵化出一批代表性的创新企业,从而为二级市场不断注入新的活力。6.5.3、物力:5G时代技术领先,基础设施具备先发优势从索洛模型之技术(A)来看,物联网、车联网、5G等正在开启全球新一轮技术创新阶段。而在这一技术创新阶段,我国将逐步走在世界的前列,为我们的经济新动力添砖加瓦。同时,从专利角度来看,中国专利数量逐步接近日本,成为全球创新产出的第二大国,大约是美国的80%。从技术产业化角度来看,我们已经具备了在技术创新上开启新一轮增长的基本条件。5G时代的领先技术推动基础设施建设更早更快落地。与过去3G、4G时代的建设不同,5G时期我国掌握了更多的自主知识产权,部分如厂商与华为等已可以进行标准的制定,从而使得在未来5G推进的过程中有望与国外同步甚至领先于国外。此外,近年来我国在计算机领域的云与大数据、半导体和新能源领域的设备制造等领域均有不错的表现,万物智能化、互联化所需的大规模信息基础设施建设投入可能比以往更快更早地到来,新「To B」产业链发展的机会在不断涌现。6.6 中国股市与其他金融市场相关系数低,配置中国是优选项对于全球投资者而言,中国资产提供了独特的分散化收益。中国经济增长主要取决于国内需求,其经济基本面与其他国家的相关性相对较低。中国人民银行基本上可以根据国内经济需求来制定货币政策。我们预期,随着外国投资者进入中国市场,中国与全球债券的相关性将会加大。但中国经济规模庞大,侧重于国内市场,因此国内经济是中国资产中长期走势的主要决定因素。目前,这些分散化效益明显可见。中国在短期和长期债务周期中所处的位置与大多数发达国家存在差异。最近,这些差异导致不同的政策回应。2017年,随着私人信贷增长不断取代货币,美联储逐步缩减流动性。与此同时,中国决策层积极收紧货币、财政和监管政策,降低金融杠杆,应对一些行业不可持续的过度增长。这些紧缩举措导致中国信贷增长明显减速,经济增长小幅放缓。中国和全球金融市场,尤其是和美国市场的相关系数最小。假设是一个全球配置的基金经理,在区域配置的组合里面,增加了一份和原来所有资产相关系数都非常低的资产,收益率不变的情况下,协方差更小,夏普比例应该提升的。更重要的是,A股未来的配置价值不是来自于它的收益率上升,而是来自于夏普比例在提升,因为波动性在大大下降。6.7 全球负利率,西水东进,中国资产受青睐2019年MSCI纳入A股,权重达20%:在2019年的询问中,全球投资者认为陆股通机制运行稳健,A股市场投资可及性提升,MSCI决定将A股纳入因子提升至20%,分三步实施,并纳入符合条件的创业板股票和中盘A股。目前A股占MSCI CHINA指数权重达到12.1%,占MSCI新兴市场指数权重达到4.1%。472只A股成为MSCI标的,28%的股票属于中小板或创业板,34%的股票为中证500成分股,其余大部分均属于主板和沪深300成分股。A股机构投资者持股市值6万亿,占全部A股自由流通市值27%,占流通市值13%,占总市值10%。其中外资持股市值1.6万亿,公募基金持股2万亿,保险社保持股1.5万亿,外资、公募、保险社保体量已基本相当。根据我们的测算,A股以100%完全纳入MSCI后,通过MSCI跟踪A股的资金规模将超过4000亿美元,其中约860亿美元为被动型资金。这将为A股引来另一股「活水」,也将进一步提升外资在A股市场中的话语权。风险提示美股股市波动超预期、全球经济下滑超预期等。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198679,"gmtCreate":1528215406677,"gmtModify":1704894185771,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"title":"博士支持","htmlText":"$好未来(TAL)$ **谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂 中华人民共和国中央人民政府门户网站06-05 10:27 【**谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂】**总理6月4日考察宁夏银川市永宁县闽宁中学“互联网+教育”发展状况。宁夏通过打造教育资源公共服务平台,全区中小学校互联网接入率已达到100%。在该校的“智慧教室”,学生们人手一个平板电脑,向总理展示上面集成的优质教育课件和彼此分享的学习心得。**说,“互联网+教育”让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂,大大拓宽了他们的视野。针对当地网速慢、信息化基础设施落后等困难,**要求有关部门要在这方面加大投入。他说,“互联网+教育”是促进起点公平的有效手段。","listText":"$好未来(TAL)$ **谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂 中华人民共和国中央人民政府门户网站06-05 10:27 【**谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂】**总理6月4日考察宁夏银川市永宁县闽宁中学“互联网+教育”发展状况。宁夏通过打造教育资源公共服务平台,全区中小学校互联网接入率已达到100%。在该校的“智慧教室”,学生们人手一个平板电脑,向总理展示上面集成的优质教育课件和彼此分享的学习心得。**说,“互联网+教育”让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂,大大拓宽了他们的视野。针对当地网速慢、信息化基础设施落后等困难,**要求有关部门要在这方面加大投入。他说,“互联网+教育”是促进起点公平的有效手段。","text":"$好未来(TAL)$ **谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂 中华人民共和国中央人民政府门户网站06-05 10:27 【**谈“互联网+教育”:让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂】**总理6月4日考察宁夏银川市永宁县闽宁中学“互联网+教育”发展状况。宁夏通过打造教育资源公共服务平台,全区中小学校互联网接入率已达到100%。在该校的“智慧教室”,学生们人手一个平板电脑,向总理展示上面集成的优质教育课件和彼此分享的学习心得。**说,“互联网+教育”让偏远地区的孩子也能“走进”名校名师课堂,大大拓宽了他们的视野。针对当地网速慢、信息化基础设施落后等困难,**要求有关部门要在这方面加大投入。他说,“互联网+教育”是促进起点公平的有效手段。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198679","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":276313043444024,"gmtCreate":1708489460629,"gmtModify":1708489462153,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"是","listText":"是","text":"是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276313043444024","repostId":"2413430639","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":203861705408760,"gmtCreate":1690809098320,"gmtModify":1690809099788,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"太高调,不适合做领导,特别是把话死了","listText":"太高调,不适合做领导,特别是把话死了","text":"太高调,不适合做领导,特别是把话死了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/203861705408760","repostId":"2355670869","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194318137335848,"gmtCreate":1688478955675,"gmtModify":1688478957209,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今年下半年就到万亿了,2025年3万亿,试目以待[开心] [开心] ","listText":"今年下半年就到万亿了,2025年3万亿,试目以待[开心] [开心] ","text":"今年下半年就到万亿了,2025年3万亿,试目以待[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194318137335848","repostId":"2348349597","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194317708808352,"gmtCreate":1688478738898,"gmtModify":1688479358876,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果特斯拉是一个纯粹的汽车公司,估计2000亿刀都嫌贵了,市场投资者又不傻,不服可以做空呀,投资它就是信仰,马斯克绝对超乔布斯,看看苹果3万亿的市值,自动驾驶,人形机器人,储能,都是超万亿的市场,投资是未来的","listText":"如果特斯拉是一个纯粹的汽车公司,估计2000亿刀都嫌贵了,市场投资者又不傻,不服可以做空呀,投资它就是信仰,马斯克绝对超乔布斯,看看苹果3万亿的市值,自动驾驶,人形机器人,储能,都是超万亿的市场,投资是未来的","text":"如果特斯拉是一个纯粹的汽车公司,估计2000亿刀都嫌贵了,市场投资者又不傻,不服可以做空呀,投资它就是信仰,马斯克绝对超乔布斯,看看苹果3万亿的市值,自动驾驶,人形机器人,储能,都是超万亿的市场,投资是未来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194317708808352","repostId":"2348541144","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650248499,"gmtCreate":1679322321011,"gmtModify":1679322322106,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ </a>终于跌破1⃣️元了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ </a>终于跌破1⃣️元了","text":"$fuboTV Inc.(FUBO)$ 终于跌破1⃣️元了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650248499","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107396,"gmtCreate":1509118486732,"gmtModify":1704882806028,"author":{"id":"3437564172337995","authorId":"3437564172337995","name":"多思","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37744fe89e2e12f8ff61341498d78457","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3437564172337995","authorIdStr":"3437564172337995"},"themes":[],"title":"TAL财报详读","htmlText":"证券研究报告事件:好未来(TAL.N)10月26日发布FY2018Q2财报(2017年6月1日—2017年8月31日)。报告期内,公司实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比增加68.1%;净利润5945.1万美元,同比增加6.7%。点评:单季学员人数翻倍,二季度营收略超预期。(1)收入方面,公司2018Q2实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比大增68.1%,略超预期(此前指引预计为58%-60%),主要得益于单季度招生人数同比大增100.6%。拆分收入来看,小班、1V1、在线课程占比分别为达81%、12%、6%。其中,小班课程仍为公司增长核心驱动力,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达62%、77%。线上部分学而思网校保持高增长态势,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达144%、约200%。(2)成本费用方面,报告期内,公司销售费用率为12.84%(+2.29pct)、管理费用率为19.16%(-3.45pct),系线下教学点数量持续扩张、暑期促销活动推进及内部管理优化所致。受此影响,公司净利率较去年同期下降7.42pct。(3)净利润方面,公司Q2净利润同比增速6.7%远低于营收增速,主要原因为去年同期其他收益净额-非经营(Other (expense)/income)一项大增2380万美元,从而导致去年净利润基数较高。剔除该部分非经营性因素影响,我们测算公司本期实际净利润增速约40%。内生外扩稳步推进,教育航母呼之欲出。(1)内生方面:公司在以北京为主的一线城市内小范围实行暑假新初一和新高一入口级促销策略,有效控制费用的同时实现学员人数翻倍,单季度学员人次达224.24万人。预计较高的新生续费率(约50%)将对公司未来2-3个季度产生积极正向影响,2017年财报季度走势便是明证。同时,公司持续优化内部组织架构,将业务相关的事业部整合为5大事业群,运营效率持续优化。(2)外扩方面:一方面,公司教学点铺","listText":"证券研究报告事件:好未来(TAL.N)10月26日发布FY2018Q2财报(2017年6月1日—2017年8月31日)。报告期内,公司实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比增加68.1%;净利润5945.1万美元,同比增加6.7%。点评:单季学员人数翻倍,二季度营收略超预期。(1)收入方面,公司2018Q2实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比大增68.1%,略超预期(此前指引预计为58%-60%),主要得益于单季度招生人数同比大增100.6%。拆分收入来看,小班、1V1、在线课程占比分别为达81%、12%、6%。其中,小班课程仍为公司增长核心驱动力,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达62%、77%。线上部分学而思网校保持高增长态势,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达144%、约200%。(2)成本费用方面,报告期内,公司销售费用率为12.84%(+2.29pct)、管理费用率为19.16%(-3.45pct),系线下教学点数量持续扩张、暑期促销活动推进及内部管理优化所致。受此影响,公司净利率较去年同期下降7.42pct。(3)净利润方面,公司Q2净利润同比增速6.7%远低于营收增速,主要原因为去年同期其他收益净额-非经营(Other (expense)/income)一项大增2380万美元,从而导致去年净利润基数较高。剔除该部分非经营性因素影响,我们测算公司本期实际净利润增速约40%。内生外扩稳步推进,教育航母呼之欲出。(1)内生方面:公司在以北京为主的一线城市内小范围实行暑假新初一和新高一入口级促销策略,有效控制费用的同时实现学员人数翻倍,单季度学员人次达224.24万人。预计较高的新生续费率(约50%)将对公司未来2-3个季度产生积极正向影响,2017年财报季度走势便是明证。同时,公司持续优化内部组织架构,将业务相关的事业部整合为5大事业群,运营效率持续优化。(2)外扩方面:一方面,公司教学点铺","text":"证券研究报告事件:好未来(TAL.N)10月26日发布FY2018Q2财报(2017年6月1日—2017年8月31日)。报告期内,公司实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比增加68.1%;净利润5945.1万美元,同比增加6.7%。点评:单季学员人数翻倍,二季度营收略超预期。(1)收入方面,公司2018Q2实现净收入4.56亿美元,同比大增68.1%,略超预期(此前指引预计为58%-60%),主要得益于单季度招生人数同比大增100.6%。拆分收入来看,小班、1V1、在线课程占比分别为达81%、12%、6%。其中,小班课程仍为公司增长核心驱动力,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达62%、77%。线上部分学而思网校保持高增长态势,营收及招生人数同比增长分别达144%、约200%。(2)成本费用方面,报告期内,公司销售费用率为12.84%(+2.29pct)、管理费用率为19.16%(-3.45pct),系线下教学点数量持续扩张、暑期促销活动推进及内部管理优化所致。受此影响,公司净利率较去年同期下降7.42pct。(3)净利润方面,公司Q2净利润同比增速6.7%远低于营收增速,主要原因为去年同期其他收益净额-非经营(Other 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