金蝉Catherine的个人主页 - 老虎社区

金蝉Catherine

金蝉Catherine

独立投资人遵循＂杠铃式＂投资策略，期权玩家；

IP属地：上海

1350关注

40粉丝

18主题

0勋章

金蝉Catherine

10-31

老虎🐯万圣节快乐🤪

金蝉Catherine

10-31

趁着DJT刚发生熔断，间隔交易恢复中立即平仓，真🈶种虎口夺食+虎口脱险的感觉，太drama啦，又见证历史啦🤣

金蝉Catherine

10-31

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 安永提出离职，这意味深长啊🤨 超微爆雷，直接带漰半导体etf，纳指也被拖累了，呵呵[吃瓜]

金蝉Catherine

10-30

小米牛逼呀，勇敢定价哈😆

金蝉Catherine

10-22

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 美银分析英伟达目标价从160提升至190，偏积极乐观，对于AI芯片界的🐲头，又号称是美股之王，英伟达值得拥有和期待(*^o^*)

金蝉Catherine

10-22

2030年将达到1万亿美元[疑问]

金蝉Catherine

10-21

Yinn更适合单边上涨行情，震荡行情杠杆损耗高，Yinn本身运营成本也偏高，中长期持有的确挺坑的 [无语]

金蝉Catherine

10-17

$台积电(TSM)$ 台积电3季度财报公布，业绩喜人，股价再创新高，股价盘前巳突破200，不知道正式开盘后最高能冲到啥价[暗中观察] Q3业绩全面超预期，净利润同比大增54%

金蝉Catherine

10-14

🇨🇳大A暴力上涨，是水牛？杠杆牛？中国政策给力，就是政策预期🐄😸✊

金蝉Catherine

10-13

疯了疯了，太crazy，3根大阳线立马改变三观，然后一根太阴棒砸下来立马冷静一下，大起大落，容易犯心脏病啊😅

金蝉Catherine

10-12

今天周六上午10点的财政部发布会memo

财政部发布会：将推出一揽子增量政策，支持房地产止跌回稳等多方面

金蝉Catherine

10-11

实现回血和盈利的目标🤓

金蝉Catherine

10-05

中概股选啥？小朋友才做选择题，成年人都要😁可以选相关的etf，例如kweb、FXI等

金蝉Catherine

10-05

5和9😛

金蝉Catherine

10-01

国庆节的收获哈😊

金蝉Catherine

10-01

小老虎卡片大作战

金蝉Catherine

09-20

稳健些可买点美债

金蝉Catherine

09-18

虽然不确定是降基点50或基点25，但降息肯定是确定的，所以防守型投资者可以入手美债，静待花开🌸

金蝉Catherine

09-18

目前来看，降50基点的概率超过25基点，如果降50基点，属于符合预期，美股科技股可能会小跌，也只是猜测，嘿嘿🤗

金蝉Catherine

09-17

中秋佳节😘🌸好月圆🙂书香润佳节😚 重读《反脆弱》感悟：一个个体要想在竞争中生存下来，并且变得越来越强，就一定要经历一些小范围、低程度的挫折或者伤害，也就是所谓的在挫折中成长✊ 如果扛住了伤害，这个个体就会从完全的脆弱性逐渐培养出反脆弱性。中国有句俗话叫“越挫越勇”，就是这个道理😎

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Q3业绩全面超预期，净利润同比大增54%","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0377984e669404efad1a45f8ccfc23e6","width":"1080","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361002932392000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359959748579464,"gmtCreate":1728912474871,"gmtModify":1728912476763,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🇨🇳大A暴力上涨，是水牛？杠杆牛？中国政策给力，就是政策预期🐄😸✊","listText":"🇨🇳大A暴力上涨，是水牛？杠杆牛？中国政策给力，就是政策预期🐄😸✊","text":"🇨🇳大A暴力上涨，是水牛？杠杆牛？中国政策给力，就是政策预期🐄😸✊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359959748579464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359576608014608,"gmtCreate":1728795290794,"gmtModify":1728796457047,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"疯了疯了，太crazy，3根大阳线立马改变三观，然后一根太阴棒砸下来立马冷静一下，大起大落，容易犯心脏病啊😅","listText":"疯了疯了，太crazy，3根大阳线立马改变三观，然后一根太阴棒砸下来立马冷静一下，大起大落，容易犯心脏病啊😅","text":"疯了疯了，太crazy，3根大阳线立马改变三观，然后一根太阴棒砸下来立马冷静一下，大起大落，容易犯心脏病啊😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359576608014608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359211933806832,"gmtCreate":1728706262429,"gmtModify":1728706264407,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"今天周六上午10点的财政部发布会memo","listText":"今天周六上午10点的财政部发布会memo","text":"今天周六上午10点的财政部发布会memo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359211933806832","repostId":"1128474126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128474126","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1728696989,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128474126?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-12 09:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"财政部发布会：将推出一揽子增量政策，支持房地产止跌回稳等多方面","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128474126","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"推动经济高质量发展。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月12日，国务院新闻办公室举行发布会，财政部主要负责人出席，介绍“加大财政政策逆周期调节力度、推动经济高质量发展”有关情况，并答记者问。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9ff147eaa37e5d6a890702eefc735de\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1416\"/></p><p>财政部部长蓝佛安、副部长廖岷、王东伟发言重点整理如下。</p><p><strong>财政部部长蓝佛安：</strong></p><p>2024年1-9月发行新增专项债券3.6万亿元。</p><p>中国财政有足够韧劲，通过采取综合性措施，可以实现收支平衡，完成全年预算目标。财政部将发行特别国债支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。</p><p><strong>将在近期陆续推出一揽子有针对性的增量政策举措。这一揽子增量政策包括支持地方化解隐性债务、支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本、支持推动房地产市场止跌回稳、加大对重点群体的支持保障力度等多个方面。</strong></p><p>逆周期调节不仅包括已进入决策程序的政策，还有其他政策工具也正在研究中，比如中央财政还有较大的举债空间和赤字提升空间。</p><p>拟一次性增加较大规模债务限额，置换地方政府存量隐性债务，加大力度支持地方化解债务风险，相关政策待履行相关法定程序后再向社会做详尽说明，这项政策是近年来出台的支持化债力度最大措施，这是一场及时雨，将大大减轻地方政府压力，可以腾出更多资源支持经济发展，巩固基层“三保”。</p><p><strong>财政部副部长廖岷：</strong></p><p>允许专项债券用于土地储备，主要是考虑当前各地闲置未开发的土地相对较多，确有需要的地区可以用于新增土地储备项目。</p><p>正在抓紧研究明确和取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准相衔接的增值税政策。</p><p>国有大行资本补充工作已启动，等待各家银行提交资本补充方案。</p><p><strong>财政部副部长王东伟：</strong></p><p>2024年安排专项债3.9万亿元，这是历年来规模最大的一次。一方面，加大对经济大省的专项债支持力度，额度分配向项目准备充分、投资效率高的地区倾斜，支持经济大省项目建设；另一方面，合理安排其他地区专项债额度，推动在建项目完工和国家重大战略项目落地实施，截至9月底，各地发行新增专项债3.6万亿元。</p><p><strong>问答环节重点：</strong></p><p>1. 专项债：允许专项债券用于土地储备，确有需要的地区可以用于新增土地储备项目，将用好专项债券来收购存量商品房。</p><p>2. 就业补助：今年以来，中央财政下达就业补助资金667亿元，支持地方做好高校毕业生等重点群体就业、职业技能培训等工作。</p><p>3. 养老金：2024年进一步提高了城乡居民基础养老金最低标准，是历次提标调整幅度最大，退休人员养老金水平总体提高3%左右。</p><p>4. 消费潜能：下一步继续坚持精准施策、靶向发力，改善居民收入预期，激发消费潜能，用好专项资金、贷款贴息等工具，带动有效投资，扩大国内需求。</p><p>5. 国有大行资本补充：国有大行资本补充工作已启动，等待各家银行提交资本补充方案；截至2024年6月末，6家国有大型银行核心一级资本充足率平均为12.3%。</p><p>6. 财税体系改革：拟在今明两年集中推出一批条件成熟、可感可及的改革举措，特别是一些事关顶层设计的基础性制度，如健全预算制度、完善财政转移支付体系等。</p><p>7. 地方政府隐性债务：拟一次性增加较大规模债务限额，置换地方政府存量隐性债务，加大力度支持地方化解债务风险，相关政策待履行相关法定程序后再向社会做详尽说明。</p><p>8. 房地产市场：正在抓紧研究明确和取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准相衔接的增值税政策；将积极研究出台有利于房地产平稳发展的增量措施，支持收购存量房。加大保障型住房的供给。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财政部发布会：将推出一揽子增量政策，支持房地产止跌回稳等多方面</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财政部发布会：将推出一揽子增量政策，支持房地产止跌回稳等多方面\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-12 09:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月12日，国务院新闻办公室举行发布会，财政部主要负责人出席，介绍“加大财政政策逆周期调节力度、推动经济高质量发展”有关情况，并答记者问。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9ff147eaa37e5d6a890702eefc735de\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1416\"/></p><p>财政部部长蓝佛安、副部长廖岷、王东伟发言重点整理如下。</p><p><strong>财政部部长蓝佛安：</strong></p><p>2024年1-9月发行新增专项债券3.6万亿元。</p><p>中国财政有足够韧劲，通过采取综合性措施，可以实现收支平衡，完成全年预算目标。财政部将发行特别国债支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。</p><p><strong>将在近期陆续推出一揽子有针对性的增量政策举措。这一揽子增量政策包括支持地方化解隐性债务、支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本、支持推动房地产市场止跌回稳、加大对重点群体的支持保障力度等多个方面。</strong></p><p>逆周期调节不仅包括已进入决策程序的政策，还有其他政策工具也正在研究中，比如中央财政还有较大的举债空间和赤字提升空间。</p><p>拟一次性增加较大规模债务限额，置换地方政府存量隐性债务，加大力度支持地方化解债务风险，相关政策待履行相关法定程序后再向社会做详尽说明，这项政策是近年来出台的支持化债力度最大措施，这是一场及时雨，将大大减轻地方政府压力，可以腾出更多资源支持经济发展，巩固基层“三保”。</p><p><strong>财政部副部长廖岷：</strong></p><p>允许专项债券用于土地储备，主要是考虑当前各地闲置未开发的土地相对较多，确有需要的地区可以用于新增土地储备项目。</p><p>正在抓紧研究明确和取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准相衔接的增值税政策。</p><p>国有大行资本补充工作已启动，等待各家银行提交资本补充方案。</p><p><strong>财政部副部长王东伟：</strong></p><p>2024年安排专项债3.9万亿元，这是历年来规模最大的一次。一方面，加大对经济大省的专项债支持力度，额度分配向项目准备充分、投资效率高的地区倾斜，支持经济大省项目建设；另一方面，合理安排其他地区专项债额度，推动在建项目完工和国家重大战略项目落地实施，截至9月底，各地发行新增专项债3.6万亿元。</p><p><strong>问答环节重点：</strong></p><p>1. 专项债：允许专项债券用于土地储备，确有需要的地区可以用于新增土地储备项目，将用好专项债券来收购存量商品房。</p><p>2. 就业补助：今年以来，中央财政下达就业补助资金667亿元，支持地方做好高校毕业生等重点群体就业、职业技能培训等工作。</p><p>3. 养老金：2024年进一步提高了城乡居民基础养老金最低标准，是历次提标调整幅度最大，退休人员养老金水平总体提高3%左右。</p><p>4. 消费潜能：下一步继续坚持精准施策、靶向发力，改善居民收入预期，激发消费潜能，用好专项资金、贷款贴息等工具，带动有效投资，扩大国内需求。</p><p>5. 国有大行资本补充：国有大行资本补充工作已启动，等待各家银行提交资本补充方案；截至2024年6月末，6家国有大型银行核心一级资本充足率平均为12.3%。</p><p>6. 财税体系改革：拟在今明两年集中推出一批条件成熟、可感可及的改革举措，特别是一些事关顶层设计的基础性制度，如健全预算制度、完善财政转移支付体系等。</p><p>7. 地方政府隐性债务：拟一次性增加较大规模债务限额，置换地方政府存量隐性债务，加大力度支持地方化解债务风险，相关政策待履行相关法定程序后再向社会做详尽说明。</p><p>8. 房地产市场：正在抓紧研究明确和取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准相衔接的增值税政策；将积极研究出台有利于房地产平稳发展的增量措施，支持收购存量房。加大保障型住房的供给。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8643be84c0995ab6b2af9a342d55e69f","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128474126","content_text":"10月12日，国务院新闻办公室举行发布会，财政部主要负责人出席，介绍“加大财政政策逆周期调节力度、推动经济高质量发展”有关情况，并答记者问。财政部部长蓝佛安、副部长廖岷、王东伟发言重点整理如下。财政部部长蓝佛安：2024年1-9月发行新增专项债券3.6万亿元。中国财政有足够韧劲，通过采取综合性措施，可以实现收支平衡，完成全年预算目标。财政部将发行特别国债支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。将在近期陆续推出一揽子有针对性的增量政策举措。这一揽子增量政策包括支持地方化解隐性债务、支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本、支持推动房地产市场止跌回稳、加大对重点群体的支持保障力度等多个方面。逆周期调节不仅包括已进入决策程序的政策，还有其他政策工具也正在研究中，比如中央财政还有较大的举债空间和赤字提升空间。拟一次性增加较大规模债务限额，置换地方政府存量隐性债务，加大力度支持地方化解债务风险，相关政策待履行相关法定程序后再向社会做详尽说明，这项政策是近年来出台的支持化债力度最大措施，这是一场及时雨，将大大减轻地方政府压力，可以腾出更多资源支持经济发展，巩固基层“三保”。财政部副部长廖岷：允许专项债券用于土地储备，主要是考虑当前各地闲置未开发的土地相对较多，确有需要的地区可以用于新增土地储备项目。正在抓紧研究明确和取消普通住宅和非普通住宅标准相衔接的增值税政策。国有大行资本补充工作已启动，等待各家银行提交资本补充方案。财政部副部长王东伟：2024年安排专项债3.9万亿元，这是历年来规模最大的一次。一方面，加大对经济大省的专项债支持力度，额度分配向项目准备充分、投资效率高的地区倾斜，支持经济大省项目建设；另一方面，合理安排其他地区专项债额度，推动在建项目完工和国家重大战略项目落地实施，截至9月底，各地发行新增专项债3.6万亿元。问答环节重点：1. 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重读《反脆弱》感悟：一个个体要想在竞争中生存下来，并且变得越来越强，就一定要经历一些小范围、低程度的挫折或者伤害，也就是所谓的在挫折中成长✊ 如果扛住了伤害，这个个体就会从完全的脆弱性逐渐培养出反脆弱性。中国有句俗话叫“越挫越勇”，就是这个道理😎","listText":"中秋佳节😘🌸好月圆🙂书香润佳节😚 重读《反脆弱》感悟：一个个体要想在竞争中生存下来，并且变得越来越强，就一定要经历一些小范围、低程度的挫折或者伤害，也就是所谓的在挫折中成长✊ 如果扛住了伤害，这个个体就会从完全的脆弱性逐渐培养出反脆弱性。中国有句俗话叫“越挫越勇”，就是这个道理😎","text":"中秋佳节😘🌸好月圆🙂书香润佳节😚 重读《反脆弱》感悟：一个个体要想在竞争中生存下来，并且变得越来越强，就一定要经历一些小范围、低程度的挫折或者伤害，也就是所谓的在挫折中成长✊ 如果扛住了伤害，这个个体就会从完全的脆弱性逐渐培养出反脆弱性。中国有句俗话叫“越挫越勇”，就是这个道理😎","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf525027046919d0d0d2dca2d4cf1526","width":"4608","height":"3456"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ac3fcbc785ed5d7b91428901b2cf13","width":"4000","height":"3000"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d7a47d597e5fa41b0a921dd9020af1","width":"750","height":"735"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350408419782944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":324837651619848,"gmtCreate":1720335120038,"gmtModify":1720336005457,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a> 在2024年6月7日，台积电披露最新月度数据，显示公司5月销售额为2296.2亿新台币（约合71.14亿美元），同比增长30.1%。 今年1-5月，台积电累计销售额达1.06万亿新台币（约合328.39亿美元），同比增长27%。针对第二季度的，预估台积电第二季度营收增长大概率会达到40%以上的水平，这对应台积电目前的估值（约30多倍）以及具有统治力的护城河来说，是非常好的增速，或者说台积电目前的估值相对其增长能力和护城河来说并不算贵。 此外，台积电确定后续会涨价，这会提升毛利和净利率，黄仁勋之前曾主动表示：台积电的晶圆和服务价格太低，没有充分体现其对科技行业的贡献，他认为台积电应该提高价格，以匹配其提供的价值。 还有一点想说的就是，台积电不是美国公司，也不在纳斯达克交易所上市，因此他既不在标普500指数中，也不在纳斯达克100指数中，因此即使你无脑买QQQ和SPY也是涵盖不到台积电的，配置台积电对指数投资者来说也有着从无到有的意义[鬼脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a> 在2024年6月7日，台积电披露最新月度数据，显示公司5月销售额为2296.2亿新台币（约合71.14亿美元），同比增长30.1%。 今年1-5月，台积电累计销售额达1.06万亿新台币（约合328.39亿美元），同比增长27%。针对第二季度的，预估台积电第二季度营收增长大概率会达到40%以上的水平，这对应台积电目前的估值（约30多倍）以及具有统治力的护城河来说，是非常好的增速，或者说台积电目前的估值相对其增长能力和护城河来说并不算贵。 此外，台积电确定后续会涨价，这会提升毛利和净利率，黄仁勋之前曾主动表示：台积电的晶圆和服务价格太低，没有充分体现其对科技行业的贡献，他认为台积电应该提高价格，以匹配其提供的价值。 还有一点想说的就是，台积电不是美国公司，也不在纳斯达克交易所上市，因此他既不在标普500指数中，也不在纳斯达克100指数中，因此即使你无脑买QQQ和SPY也是涵盖不到台积电的，配置台积电对指数投资者来说也有着从无到有的意义[鬼脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$台积电(TSM)$ 在2024年6月7日，台积电披露最新月度数据，显示公司5月销售额为2296.2亿新台币（约合71.14亿美元），同比增长30.1%。 今年1-5月，台积电累计销售额达1.06万亿新台币（约合328.39亿美元），同比增长27%。针对第二季度的，预估台积电第二季度营收增长大概率会达到40%以上的水平，这对应台积电目前的估值（约30多倍）以及具有统治力的护城河来说，是非常好的增速，或者说台积电目前的估值相对其增长能力和护城河来说并不算贵。 此外，台积电确定后续会涨价，这会提升毛利和净利率，黄仁勋之前曾主动表示：台积电的晶圆和服务价格太低，没有充分体现其对科技行业的贡献，他认为台积电应该提高价格，以匹配其提供的价值。 还有一点想说的就是，台积电不是美国公司，也不在纳斯达克交易所上市，因此他既不在标普500指数中，也不在纳斯达克100指数中，因此即使你无脑买QQQ和SPY也是涵盖不到台积电的，配置台积电对指数投资者来说也有着从无到有的意义[鬼脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/011014ba3566c59ac7eb430152548fd8","width":"1100","height":"732"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":28,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324837651619848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4111302797871770","authorId":"4111302797871770","name":"ylin211","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00553775bc8dd1785711ed6065ac8206","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4111302797871770","authorIdStr":"4111302797871770"},"content":"那美股的tsm是什么？","text":"那美股的tsm是什么？","html":"那美股的tsm是什么？"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326409579991264,"gmtCreate":1720691441611,"gmtModify":1720693020813,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 持有看多，短期目标价150！ 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引，公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元（正负2%），同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%，可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月，仍处于上半年，由于英伟达每个季度都在增长，估且用二季度的利润乘以4，换算成年化（虽然低估了，但没关系） 截止6月底，英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元，二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元，30000亿/640亿 = 47倍，同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%，净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法，即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率，英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意，这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设，实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说，当PEG值＜1，说明被低估；当PEG值＞1，说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出，他最理想的投资对象，其PEG值应该＜0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切，但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的＂铲子型＂公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里，英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的（事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈，而非市场需求不够大）。 若以10年的长周期来看，英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20％～30％之间（与长期数据中心市场增速相近）。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 持有看多，短期目标价150！ 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引，公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元（正负2%），同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%，可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月，仍处于上半年，由于英伟达每个季度都在增长，估且用二季度的利润乘以4，换算成年化（虽然低估了，但没关系） 截止6月底，英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元，二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元，30000亿/640亿 = 47倍，同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%，净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法，即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率，英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意，这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设，实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说，当PEG值＜1，说明被低估；当PEG值＞1，说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出，他最理想的投资对象，其PEG值应该＜0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切，但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的＂铲子型＂公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里，英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的（事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈，而非市场需求不够大）。 若以10年的长周期来看，英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20％～30％之间（与长期数据中心市场增速相近）。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 持有看多，短期目标价150！ 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引，公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元（正负2%），同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%，可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月，仍处于上半年，由于英伟达每个季度都在增长，估且用二季度的利润乘以4，换算成年化（虽然低估了，但没关系） 截止6月底，英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元，二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元，30000亿/640亿 = 47倍，同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%，净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法，即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率，英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意，这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设，实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说，当PEG值＜1，说明被低估；当PEG值＞1，说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出，他最理想的投资对象，其PEG值应该＜0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切，但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的＂铲子型＂公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里，英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的（事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈，而非市场需求不够大）。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 齐挫；汽车股均下跌，体育用品股、光伏股、餐饮股、濠赌股下跌明显。另一方面，银行股走强撑盘，汇丰控股绩后涨5.56%，药品股、啤酒股多数上涨。美股市场美股周二低开低走，三大指数集体收跌。道指下挫近700点，标普500指数失守4000点关口。美元走强、美债收益率攀升。投资者担心美联储继续加息并长期维持高利率政策将导致经济衰退。最新财报预示着消费者状况转差。截至收盘，纳斯达克指数跌2.5%，道琼斯指数跌2.06%，标普500指数跌2%。标普500指数与道指创去年12月15日以来最差单日表现，纳指连跌三日至1月30日来最低。大型科技股集体下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 跌约3%，","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场2月22日，加息乌云笼罩，隔夜美股重挫。港股低开，恒指跌0.08%，国指跌0.66%，恒生科技指数跌1%。盘面上，大型科技股全线下跌，京东、$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 跌超3%，$腾讯控股(00700)$ 、$网易-S(09999)$ 、$快手-W(01024)$ 、$美团-W(03690)$ 齐挫；汽车股均下跌，体育用品股、光伏股、餐饮股、濠赌股下跌明显。另一方面，银行股走强撑盘，汇丰控股绩后涨5.56%，药品股、啤酒股多数上涨。美股市场美股周二低开低走，三大指数集体收跌。道指下挫近700点，标普500指数失守4000点关口。美元走强、美债收益率攀升。投资者担心美联储继续加息并长期维持高利率政策将导致经济衰退。最新财报预示着消费者状况转差。截至收盘，纳斯达克指数跌2.5%，道琼斯指数跌2.06%，标普500指数跌2%。标普500指数与道指创去年12月15日以来最差单日表现，纳指连跌三日至1月30日来最低。大型科技股集体下跌，$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 跌超5%，$奈飞(NFLX)$ 跌约3%，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2fd7ebbf31e2a47135d8abe97327340","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624966436","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624485424,"gmtCreate":1677648112068,"gmtModify":1677648113692,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624485424","repostId":"624014560","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624014560,"gmtCreate":1676943564950,"gmtModify":1703729206077,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀【2月21日】美股休市，英国股市刷新历史新高！今天买点啥","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场2月21日讯，美股昨日休市，港股小幅低开，恒指跌0.13%，国指跌0.1%，恒生科技指数跌0.14%。盘面上，大型科技股涨跌参半，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、百度小幅上涨，京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 走低；昨日走强的内险股普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00966\">$中国太平(00966)$</a> 跌2.5%，体育用品股、濠赌股走低。另一方面，证监会启动不动产私募投资基金试点，内房股涨幅居前，香港证监会计划允许散户交易大型加密货币，区块链概念股大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">$美图公司(01357)$</a> 涨近6%。联想集团跌1.4%。绿新亲水胶体涨近15%，昨日闪崩跌超70%，公告称不知悉下跌原因。美股市场2月20日因“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”美股休市一天欧股主要指数周一收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数跌0.03%，英国富时100指数涨0.12%，法国CAC40指数跌0.16%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.09%。其中，英股抹平上周五回落的跌幅，刷新截至上周四连续四日所创的收盘历史高位，连续第三个交易日收于8000点上方。周一欧股盘中刷洗日高时，美国WTI原油涨至77.51美元，日内涨逾1.5%，布伦特原油涨至8","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场2月21日讯，美股昨日休市，港股小幅低开，恒指跌0.13%，国指跌0.1%，恒生科技指数跌0.14%。盘面上，大型科技股涨跌参半，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、百度小幅上涨，京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 走低；昨日走强的内险股普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00966\">$中国太平(00966)$</a> 跌2.5%，体育用品股、濠赌股走低。另一方面，证监会启动不动产私募投资基金试点，内房股涨幅居前，香港证监会计划允许散户交易大型加密货币，区块链概念股大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">$美图公司(01357)$</a> 涨近6%。联想集团跌1.4%。绿新亲水胶体涨近15%，昨日闪崩跌超70%，公告称不知悉下跌原因。美股市场2月20日因“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”美股休市一天欧股主要指数周一收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数跌0.03%，英国富时100指数涨0.12%，法国CAC40指数跌0.16%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.09%。其中，英股抹平上周五回落的跌幅，刷新截至上周四连续四日所创的收盘历史高位，连续第三个交易日收于8000点上方。周一欧股盘中刷洗日高时，美国WTI原油涨至77.51美元，日内涨逾1.5%，布伦特原油涨至8","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场2月21日讯，美股昨日休市，港股小幅低开，恒指跌0.13%，国指跌0.1%，恒生科技指数跌0.14%。盘面上，大型科技股涨跌参半，$小米集团-W(01810)$ 、$美团-W(03690)$ 、百度小幅上涨，京东、$腾讯控股(00700)$ 、$快手-W(01024)$ 走低；昨日走强的内险股普跌，$中国太平(00966)$ 跌2.5%，体育用品股、濠赌股走低。另一方面，证监会启动不动产私募投资基金试点，内房股涨幅居前，香港证监会计划允许散户交易大型加密货币，区块链概念股大涨，$美图公司(01357)$ 涨近6%。联想集团跌1.4%。绿新亲水胶体涨近15%，昨日闪崩跌超70%，公告称不知悉下跌原因。美股市场2月20日因“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”美股休市一天欧股主要指数周一收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数跌0.03%，英国富时100指数涨0.12%，法国CAC40指数跌0.16%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.09%。其中，英股抹平上周五回落的跌幅，刷新截至上周四连续四日所创的收盘历史高位，连续第三个交易日收于8000点上方。周一欧股盘中刷洗日高时，美国WTI原油涨至77.51美元，日内涨逾1.5%，布伦特原油涨至8","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d7da388220bfad782f62f7c19103ddd","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624014560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624579155,"gmtCreate":1677595044478,"gmtModify":1677595046079,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624579155","repostId":"624005705","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624005705,"gmtCreate":1676894259307,"gmtModify":1676894277810,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440721572920950","authorIdStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"美元再度走强，美债继续攀升源自何故？","htmlText":"最近市场一直在反复博弈一个问题：衰退会不会到来？显然，上周公布的1月美国CPI和PPI双双超预期，也使得美债利率和美元明显走高。详细分析请点击《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/625663913\" target=\"_blank\">1月CPI为何会超预期了</a>》同时，其他但经济数据（如非农）继续保持保持强劲，市场也对美联储货币政策转向的预期开始逆转，目前市场已经隐含了美联储在未来数月内再次加息75个基点的情形，3月FOMC议息会议加息50个基点的可能性上升到了81.9%。综合来看，当前美联储收紧货币政策更多依靠加息，缩表速度相对此前开启QE时偏慢，导致流动性收紧不足。而财政支出力度并没有降低多少。美国流动性虽有所收紧，但与疫情前相比仍较宽松，这虽确实使政策收紧对经济的抑制较为温和，符合美联储在抑制通胀的同时也使经济能够软着陆的期望，但反过来也拖慢了通胀回落的速度.2023财年前四个月美国财政支出1.93万亿美元（历史新高），若以2019年同期作为基数来计算2020年1月起各月的年均增速，可以看到当前财政支出增速虽从前期高点回落，但仍高于疫情前平均水平。美国财政支出与财政收入对比1月ISM服务业PMI超预期抬升荣枯线上方（55.2 vs. 12月49.2），且新订单及商业活动修复明显。2 月密歇根消费者信心指数超预期走高至66.4（vs. 1月64.9），各个收入群体的消费信心在 11 月以来均有所改善。房利美购房者信心指数自去年11月以来的低点大幅反弹，建筑商调查数据也 12月起呈现修复迹象。1月非农新增就业51.7万人远超预期，创2022年7月以来最大增幅，休闲酒店、商业服务、零售等低端服务行业回升明显1月失业率回落至3.4%，创1969年以来新低；1月CPI同比回落幅度不及预期，整体同比6.4%，环比0.5%；1月零售消费环比超预期增长3","listText":"最近市场一直在反复博弈一个问题：衰退会不会到来？显然，上周公布的1月美国CPI和PPI双双超预期，也使得美债利率和美元明显走高。详细分析请点击《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/625663913\" target=\"_blank\">1月CPI为何会超预期了</a>》同时，其他但经济数据（如非农）继续保持保持强劲，市场也对美联储货币政策转向的预期开始逆转，目前市场已经隐含了美联储在未来数月内再次加息75个基点的情形，3月FOMC议息会议加息50个基点的可能性上升到了81.9%。综合来看，当前美联储收紧货币政策更多依靠加息，缩表速度相对此前开启QE时偏慢，导致流动性收紧不足。而财政支出力度并没有降低多少。美国流动性虽有所收紧，但与疫情前相比仍较宽松，这虽确实使政策收紧对经济的抑制较为温和，符合美联储在抑制通胀的同时也使经济能够软着陆的期望，但反过来也拖慢了通胀回落的速度.2023财年前四个月美国财政支出1.93万亿美元（历史新高），若以2019年同期作为基数来计算2020年1月起各月的年均增速，可以看到当前财政支出增速虽从前期高点回落，但仍高于疫情前平均水平。美国财政支出与财政收入对比1月ISM服务业PMI超预期抬升荣枯线上方（55.2 vs. 12月49.2），且新订单及商业活动修复明显。2 月密歇根消费者信心指数超预期走高至66.4（vs. 1月64.9），各个收入群体的消费信心在 11 月以来均有所改善。房利美购房者信心指数自去年11月以来的低点大幅反弹，建筑商调查数据也 12月起呈现修复迹象。1月非农新增就业51.7万人远超预期，创2022年7月以来最大增幅，休闲酒店、商业服务、零售等低端服务行业回升明显1月失业率回落至3.4%，创1969年以来新低；1月CPI同比回落幅度不及预期，整体同比6.4%，环比0.5%；1月零售消费环比超预期增长3","text":"最近市场一直在反复博弈一个问题：衰退会不会到来？显然，上周公布的1月美国CPI和PPI双双超预期，也使得美债利率和美元明显走高。详细分析请点击《1月CPI为何会超预期了》同时，其他但经济数据（如非农）继续保持保持强劲，市场也对美联储货币政策转向的预期开始逆转，目前市场已经隐含了美联储在未来数月内再次加息75个基点的情形，3月FOMC议息会议加息50个基点的可能性上升到了81.9%。综合来看，当前美联储收紧货币政策更多依靠加息，缩表速度相对此前开启QE时偏慢，导致流动性收紧不足。而财政支出力度并没有降低多少。美国流动性虽有所收紧，但与疫情前相比仍较宽松，这虽确实使政策收紧对经济的抑制较为温和，符合美联储在抑制通胀的同时也使经济能够软着陆的期望，但反过来也拖慢了通胀回落的速度.2023财年前四个月美国财政支出1.93万亿美元（历史新高），若以2019年同期作为基数来计算2020年1月起各月的年均增速，可以看到当前财政支出增速虽从前期高点回落，但仍高于疫情前平均水平。美国财政支出与财政收入对比1月ISM服务业PMI超预期抬升荣枯线上方（55.2 vs. 12月49.2），且新订单及商业活动修复明显。2 月密歇根消费者信心指数超预期走高至66.4（vs. 1月64.9），各个收入群体的消费信心在 11 月以来均有所改善。房利美购房者信心指数自去年11月以来的低点大幅反弹，建筑商调查数据也 12月起呈现修复迹象。1月非农新增就业51.7万人远超预期，创2022年7月以来最大增幅，休闲酒店、商业服务、零售等低端服务行业回升明显1月失业率回落至3.4%，创1969年以来新低；1月CPI同比回落幅度不及预期，整体同比6.4%，环比0.5%；1月零售消费环比超预期增长3","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8960b86907ea531ebfc869c1070ad909","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73df9a36b2fd2fe8e45b7d9225cafe2","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31e4c12c5dd5337c8a0e8ec246f6ef7","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624005705","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624579385,"gmtCreate":1677595021047,"gmtModify":1677595022428,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624579385","repostId":"624880702","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624880702,"gmtCreate":1677228583206,"gmtModify":1677228650386,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"阿里巴巴23Q3财报分析：好过最慌时，恢复行径中","htmlText":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度（截止22年12月31日）业绩，整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元，与市场预期大致持平； 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元，高于市场预期13.3%；普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元)；调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币，均高于市场预期。其中，核心平台电商的表现较弱，阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降9%，在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长，其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元，国际零售收入同比增长26%，盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软，竞争依然激烈，期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软，主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动，曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑，变现能力下滑，作为公司主要的现金流来源，的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然，Q3（10-12月）的疫情影响带来的变量太大，先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工，后是因12月员工休假带来的停工，我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线，短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移，但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看，23Q4（1-3月）虽然不是购物旺季，但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复，而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷，但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑，但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼，更多业务自食其力，期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈，包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","listText":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度（截止22年12月31日）业绩，整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元，与市场预期大致持平； 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元，高于市场预期13.3%；普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元)；调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币，均高于市场预期。其中，核心平台电商的表现较弱，阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降9%，在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长，其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元，国际零售收入同比增长26%，盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软，竞争依然激烈，期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软，主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动，曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑，变现能力下滑，作为公司主要的现金流来源，的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然，Q3（10-12月）的疫情影响带来的变量太大，先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工，后是因12月员工休假带来的停工，我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线，短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移，但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看，23Q4（1-3月）虽然不是购物旺季，但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复，而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷，但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑，但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼，更多业务自食其力，期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈，包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","text":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度（截止22年12月31日）业绩，整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元，与市场预期大致持平； 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元，高于市场预期13.3%；普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元)；调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币，均高于市场预期。其中，核心平台电商的表现较弱，阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降9%，在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长，其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元，国际零售收入同比增长26%，盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软，竞争依然激烈，期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软，主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动，曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑，变现能力下滑，作为公司主要的现金流来源，的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然，Q3（10-12月）的疫情影响带来的变量太大，先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工，后是因12月员工休假带来的停工，我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线，短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移，但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看，23Q4（1-3月）虽然不是购物旺季，但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复，而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷，但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑，但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼，更多业务自食其力，期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈，包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1783996c16bc6df15a9fac40d74618cc","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8b27194f6797a449c581a56342c0dc5","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/112d157cfa8c5300407f4df7a695fa01","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624880702","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624579920,"gmtCreate":1677595011261,"gmtModify":1677595012740,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624579920","repostId":"624384760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624384760,"gmtCreate":1677078916250,"gmtModify":1677078943143,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"市场大跌，机构站队，意想不到的期权策略！","htmlText":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell&nbsp;put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:&nbsp;","listText":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell&nbsp;put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:&nbsp;","text":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料$拼多多(PDD)$ 的sell put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ $PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ 这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46105b56e488c399a77ea726aaff0e9","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e96eea80c86460475a4d051fae12db","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337084d803a04fe419e5712ae2698efe","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624384760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}