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金蝉Catherine
独立投资人 防御型"杠铃式"投资策略,期权sell型玩家;
IP属地:上海
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金蝉Catherine
09-18 00:38
虽然不确定是降基点50或基点25,但降息肯定是确定的,所以防守型投资者可以入手美债,静待花开🌸
金蝉Catherine
09-18 00:32
目前来看,降50基点的概率超过25基点,如果降50基点,属于符合预期,美股科技股可能会小跌,也只是猜测,嘿嘿🤗
金蝉Catherine
09-17 20:42
中秋佳节😘🌸好月圆🙂书香润佳节😚 重读《反脆弱》感悟:一个个体要想在竞争中生存下来,并且变得越来越强,就一定要经历一些小范围、低程度的挫折或者伤害,也就是所谓的在挫折中成长✊ 如果扛住了伤害,这个个体就会从完全的脆弱性逐渐培养出反脆弱性。中国有句俗话叫“越挫越勇”,就是这个道理😎
金蝉Catherine
09-15
英伟达,今年全球最靓的仔,怎么能少了你的身影呢🤑
金蝉Catherine
09-13
中秋节快乐,节前的好消息~延迟退休 [贱笑] 说到底,80后90后00后以后养老还是要靠自己,做好投资,精进赚钱技能,早日实现财务自由,争取提前退休 [OK]
金蝉Catherine
09-12
$英伟达(NVDA)$
区间震荡波动90~130[暗中观察]
金蝉Catherine
08-28
英伟达财报来袭,是要押上涨还是下跌,小朋友才做选择题,成年人都要,short stangle 走起,嘿嘿🤑
金蝉Catherine
08-27
$英伟达(NVDA)$
如果财报超预期(有点小惊喜),预计会有10%~15%的涨幅,反之亦然,让我们拭目以待吧[暗中观察]
金蝉Catherine
08-23
阿里回港上市,双重上市,中概股的终局吗[暗中观察]
金蝉Catherine
08-18
图一 15 图二 18 图三 18
金蝉Catherine
08-12
$英伟达(NVDA)$
短期震荡行情,中长期继续看多[微笑]
金蝉Catherine
08-08
$英伟达(NVDA)$
好事多磨,坚持一下吧[可爱]
金蝉Catherine
07-31
上个季度财报后2亿哥第一次roll仓,行权价选择950,也就是95,加上成本目标价=95+16.5=111.5。 所以现在英伟达股票价格就是机构预测理想价格。
@期权小班长:AMD大单看涨;2亿哥再度减仓NVDA
金蝉Catherine
07-30
买“长生不老"的指数型ETF,比如标普或纳指ETF🤓
金蝉Catherine
07-30
微软比苹果更稳重些🧐
金蝉Catherine
07-30
中奖了😃
@胖虎福利:【发奖啦】星竞威武上市活动获奖名单!
金蝉Catherine
07-25
$英伟达(NVDA)$
坚守阵地,随机应变,如本周收盘能苟住118,继续震荡行情👀
金蝉Catherine
07-23
65岁退休嫌晚,35岁求职嫌老,说到底,还是缺💰惹的祸,如果有💰已实现财务自由,想啥时候提前退休都OK,缺💰啥年纪都还要继续苦逼打工赚💰,所以,有💰才是解决问题的关键方法🙏
金蝉Catherine
07-22
216~262之间震荡,短期看涨262,猜想😋
金蝉Catherine
07-22
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
小朋友才做选择题,成年人都要,压双边[鬼脸]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","text":"阿里回港上市,双重上市,中概股的终局吗[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341515439071296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339732839788704,"gmtCreate":1723946744894,"gmtModify":1723946747463,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"图一 15 图二 18 图三 18","listText":"图一 15 图二 18 图三 18","text":"图一 15 图二 18 图三 18","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339732839788704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337496979681560,"gmtCreate":1723436179701,"gmtModify":1723436181471,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 短期震荡行情,中长期继续看多[微笑] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 短期震荡行情,中长期继续看多[微笑] ","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 短期震荡行情,中长期继续看多[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337496979681560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336100383285520,"gmtCreate":1723091979695,"gmtModify":1723091981462,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 好事多磨,坚持一下吧[可爱] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 好事多磨,坚持一下吧[可爱] ","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 好事多磨,坚持一下吧[可爱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336100383285520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333176960593960,"gmtCreate":1722367673853,"gmtModify":1722367676264,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上个季度财报后2亿哥第一次roll仓,行权价选择950,也就是95,加上成本目标价=95+16.5=111.5。 所以现在英伟达股票价格就是机构预测理想价格。","listText":"上个季度财报后2亿哥第一次roll仓,行权价选择950,也就是95,加上成本目标价=95+16.5=111.5。 所以现在英伟达股票价格就是机构预测理想价格。","text":"上个季度财报后2亿哥第一次roll仓,行权价选择950,也就是95,加上成本目标价=95+16.5=111.5。 所以现在英伟达股票价格就是机构预测理想价格。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333176960593960","repostId":"333097760059392","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":333097760059392,"gmtCreate":1722346656312,"gmtModify":1722348776964,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"AMD大单看涨;2亿哥再度减仓NVDA","htmlText":"又到了大家最喜欢的大单推理环节。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a>周一,终于有机构敢于下重注了,期权异动显示有人买入AMD看涨价差大单,看涨AMD到160以上,175以下:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020240816%20160.0%20CALL\">$AMD 20240816 160.0 CALL$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020240816%20175.0%20CALL\">$AMD 20240816 175.0 CALL$</a> 来源老虎pc期权筛选但是提醒一点,我也经常见到几百万打水漂的买方大单,只能说这家机构经过调研后看涨,但并不代表客观一定能涨。所以我们此时可以选择保守看涨策略,比如卖出看跌期权。AMD今晚可以做sell put,行权价可以选125或者115,115可以选远期: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20240816 125.0 PUT\">$AMD 20240816 125.0 PUT$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20241220 115.0 PUT\">$AMD 20241220 115.0 PUT$ </a>如果财报高开,记得开盘平仓。善于推理的朋友们此时一定会问一个问题:AMD看涨对于英伟达股价是不是利好?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>经过调查,很不幸,昨日2亿哥持仓的","listText":"又到了大家最喜欢的大单推理环节。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a>周一,终于有机构敢于下重注了,期权异动显示有人买入AMD看涨价差大单,看涨AMD到160以上,175以下:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020240816%20160.0%20CALL\">$AMD 20240816 160.0 CALL$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020240816%20175.0%20CALL\">$AMD 20240816 175.0 CALL$</a> 来源老虎pc期权筛选但是提醒一点,我也经常见到几百万打水漂的买方大单,只能说这家机构经过调研后看涨,但并不代表客观一定能涨。所以我们此时可以选择保守看涨策略,比如卖出看跌期权。AMD今晚可以做sell put,行权价可以选125或者115,115可以选远期: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20240816 125.0 PUT\">$AMD 20240816 125.0 PUT$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20241220 115.0 PUT\">$AMD 20241220 115.0 PUT$ </a>如果财报高开,记得开盘平仓。善于推理的朋友们此时一定会问一个问题:AMD看涨对于英伟达股价是不是利好?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>经过调查,很不幸,昨日2亿哥持仓的","text":"又到了大家最喜欢的大单推理环节。$美国超微公司(AMD)$周一,终于有机构敢于下重注了,期权异动显示有人买入AMD看涨价差大单,看涨AMD到160以上,175以下:$AMD 20240816 160.0 CALL$ $AMD 20240816 175.0 CALL$ 来源老虎pc期权筛选但是提醒一点,我也经常见到几百万打水漂的买方大单,只能说这家机构经过调研后看涨,但并不代表客观一定能涨。所以我们此时可以选择保守看涨策略,比如卖出看跌期权。AMD今晚可以做sell put,行权价可以选125或者115,115可以选远期: $AMD 20240816 125.0 PUT$ $AMD 20241220 115.0 PUT$ 如果财报高开,记得开盘平仓。善于推理的朋友们此时一定会问一个问题:AMD看涨对于英伟达股价是不是利好?$英伟达(NVDA)$经过调查,很不幸,昨日2亿哥持仓的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4535d0458cb4da0cd934325597f004a","width":"2426","height":"144"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e70e2746a75048b94eea7ddcdba26b","width":"2418","height":"86"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f24fc53e9364c7bb8323cac16d6bd6","width":"1084","height":"1928"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333097760059392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333061367046384,"gmtCreate":1722340072107,"gmtModify":1722340074637,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买“长生不老\"的指数型ETF,比如标普或纳指ETF🤓","listText":"买“长生不老\"的指数型ETF,比如标普或纳指ETF🤓","text":"买“长生不老\"的指数型ETF,比如标普或纳指ETF🤓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333061367046384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332955488379168,"gmtCreate":1722314077724,"gmtModify":1722314079900,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"微软比苹果更稳重些🧐","listText":"微软比苹果更稳重些🧐","text":"微软比苹果更稳重些🧐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332955488379168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332924725555288,"gmtCreate":1722306429682,"gmtModify":1722306431771,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中奖了😃","listText":"中奖了😃","text":"中奖了😃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332924725555288","repostId":"332679469568168","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":332679469568168,"gmtCreate":1722244627066,"gmtModify":1722245050632,"author":{"id":"3527667568191018","authorId":"3527667568191018","authorIdStr":"3527667568191018","name":"胖虎福利","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/733bbf790057cc91c5e0b1aa5569977c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667568191018"},"themes":[],"title":"【发奖啦】星竞威武上市活动获奖名单!","htmlText":"获奖揭晓:星竞威武上市活动获奖名单:ES/NIP定制行李箱: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3472509891364152\">@真的英雄</a> ES/NIP定制T恤(尺码为均码,不可更改): <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3556330663980787\">@科尚</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3564367031412187\">@金蝉Catherine</a> ES/NIP定制鼠标垫: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3578301035307164\">@一笑而过者也</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4158928731535282\">@Bryant Cui</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3432276741707889\">@斗战胜佛巴菲特</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3556934434262259\">@HatterPorry</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3578563880490177\">@杨浙良</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010280\">@练习两年半</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4171592333673702\">@DetectiveY</a> ES/NIP定制棒球帽: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3481165689468600\">@好韭不贱</a>","listText":"获奖揭晓:星竞威武上市活动获奖名单:ES/NIP定制行李箱: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3472509891364152\">@真的英雄</a> ES/NIP定制T恤(尺码为均码,不可更改): <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3556330663980787\">@科尚</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3564367031412187\">@金蝉Catherine</a> ES/NIP定制鼠标垫: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3578301035307164\">@一笑而过者也</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4158928731535282\">@Bryant Cui</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3432276741707889\">@斗战胜佛巴菲特</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3556934434262259\">@HatterPorry</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3578563880490177\">@杨浙良</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010280\">@练习两年半</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4171592333673702\">@DetectiveY</a> ES/NIP定制棒球帽: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3481165689468600\">@好韭不贱</a>","text":"获奖揭晓:星竞威武上市活动获奖名单:ES/NIP定制行李箱: @真的英雄 ES/NIP定制T恤(尺码为均码,不可更改): @科尚 @金蝉Catherine ES/NIP定制鼠标垫: @一笑而过者也 @Bryant Cui @斗战胜佛巴菲特 @HatterPorry @杨浙良 @练习两年半 @DetectiveY ES/NIP定制棒球帽: @好韭不贱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332679469568168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331280839794912,"gmtCreate":1721885898281,"gmtModify":1721885900155,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 坚守阵地,随机应变,如本周收盘能苟住118,继续震荡行情👀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 坚守阵地,随机应变,如本周收盘能苟住118,继续震荡行情👀","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 坚守阵地,随机应变,如本周收盘能苟住118,继续震荡行情👀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331280839794912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330582382035016,"gmtCreate":1721739218664,"gmtModify":1721739221366,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"65岁退休嫌晚,35岁求职嫌老,说到底,还是缺💰惹的祸,如果有💰已实现财务自由,想啥时候提前退休都OK,缺💰啥年纪都还要继续苦逼打工赚💰,所以,有💰才是解决问题的关键方法🙏","listText":"65岁退休嫌晚,35岁求职嫌老,说到底,还是缺💰惹的祸,如果有💰已实现财务自由,想啥时候提前退休都OK,缺💰啥年纪都还要继续苦逼打工赚💰,所以,有💰才是解决问题的关键方法🙏","text":"65岁退休嫌晚,35岁求职嫌老,说到底,还是缺💰惹的祸,如果有💰已实现财务自由,想啥时候提前退休都OK,缺💰啥年纪都还要继续苦逼打工赚💰,所以,有💰才是解决问题的关键方法🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330582382035016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330237409914976,"gmtCreate":1721654965902,"gmtModify":1721654967898,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"216~262之间震荡,短期看涨262,猜想😋","listText":"216~262之间震荡,短期看涨262,猜想😋","text":"216~262之间震荡,短期看涨262,猜想😋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330237409914976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330104526455064,"gmtCreate":1721622403403,"gmtModify":1721622405196,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 小朋友才做选择题,成年人都要,压双边[鬼脸] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 小朋友才做选择题,成年人都要,压双边[鬼脸] ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 小朋友才做选择题,成年人都要,压双边[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330104526455064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":324837651619848,"gmtCreate":1720335120038,"gmtModify":1720336005457,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$ </a> 在2024年6月7日,台积电披露最新月度数据,显示公司5月销售额为2296.2亿新台币(约合71.14亿美元),同比增长30.1%。 今年1-5月,台积电累计销售额达1.06万亿新台币(约合328.39亿美元),同比增长27%。针对第二季度的,预估台积电第二季度营收增长大概率会达到40%以上的水平,这对应台积电目前的估值(约30多倍)以及具有统治力的护城河来说,是非常好的增速,或者说台积电目前的估值相对其增长能力和护城河来说并不算贵。 此外,台积电确定后续会涨价,这会提升毛利和净利率,黄仁勋之前曾主动表示:台积电的晶圆和服务价格太低,没有充分体现其对科技行业的贡献,他认为台积电应该提高价格,以匹配其提供的价值。 还有一点想说的就是,台积电不是美国公司,也不在纳斯达克交易所上市,因此他既不在标普500指数中,也不在纳斯达克100指数中,因此即使你无脑买QQQ和SPY也是涵盖不到台积电的,配置台积电对指数投资者来说也有着从无到有的意义[鬼脸] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$ </a> 在2024年6月7日,台积电披露最新月度数据,显示公司5月销售额为2296.2亿新台币(约合71.14亿美元),同比增长30.1%。 今年1-5月,台积电累计销售额达1.06万亿新台币(约合328.39亿美元),同比增长27%。针对第二季度的,预估台积电第二季度营收增长大概率会达到40%以上的水平,这对应台积电目前的估值(约30多倍)以及具有统治力的护城河来说,是非常好的增速,或者说台积电目前的估值相对其增长能力和护城河来说并不算贵。 此外,台积电确定后续会涨价,这会提升毛利和净利率,黄仁勋之前曾主动表示:台积电的晶圆和服务价格太低,没有充分体现其对科技行业的贡献,他认为台积电应该提高价格,以匹配其提供的价值。 还有一点想说的就是,台积电不是美国公司,也不在纳斯达克交易所上市,因此他既不在标普500指数中,也不在纳斯达克100指数中,因此即使你无脑买QQQ和SPY也是涵盖不到台积电的,配置台积电对指数投资者来说也有着从无到有的意义[鬼脸] ","text":"$台积电(TSM)$ 在2024年6月7日,台积电披露最新月度数据,显示公司5月销售额为2296.2亿新台币(约合71.14亿美元),同比增长30.1%。 今年1-5月,台积电累计销售额达1.06万亿新台币(约合328.39亿美元),同比增长27%。针对第二季度的,预估台积电第二季度营收增长大概率会达到40%以上的水平,这对应台积电目前的估值(约30多倍)以及具有统治力的护城河来说,是非常好的增速,或者说台积电目前的估值相对其增长能力和护城河来说并不算贵。 此外,台积电确定后续会涨价,这会提升毛利和净利率,黄仁勋之前曾主动表示:台积电的晶圆和服务价格太低,没有充分体现其对科技行业的贡献,他认为台积电应该提高价格,以匹配其提供的价值。 还有一点想说的就是,台积电不是美国公司,也不在纳斯达克交易所上市,因此他既不在标普500指数中,也不在纳斯达克100指数中,因此即使你无脑买QQQ和SPY也是涵盖不到台积电的,配置台积电对指数投资者来说也有着从无到有的意义[鬼脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/011014ba3566c59ac7eb430152548fd8","width":"1100","height":"732"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":28,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324837651619848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4111302797871770","authorId":"4111302797871770","authorIdStr":"4111302797871770","name":"ylin211","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00553775bc8dd1785711ed6065ac8206","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4111302797871770"},"content":"那美股的tsm是什么?","text":"那美股的tsm是什么?","html":"那美股的tsm是什么?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326409579991264,"gmtCreate":1720691441611,"gmtModify":1720693020813,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 持有看多,短期目标价150! 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引,公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元(正负2%),同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%,可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月,仍处于上半年,由于英伟达每个季度都在增长,估且用二季度的利润乘以4,换算成年化(虽然低估了,但没关系) 截止6月底,英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元,二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元,30000亿/640亿 = 47倍,同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%,净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法,即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率,英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意,这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设,实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说,当PEG值<1,说明被低估;当PEG值>1,说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出,他最理想的投资对象,其PEG值应该<0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切,但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的"铲子型"公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里,英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的(事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈,而非市场需求不够大)。 若以10年的长周期来看,英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20%~30%之间(与长期数据中心市场增速相近)。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 持有看多,短期目标价150! 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引,公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元(正负2%),同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%,可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月,仍处于上半年,由于英伟达每个季度都在增长,估且用二季度的利润乘以4,换算成年化(虽然低估了,但没关系) 截止6月底,英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元,二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元,30000亿/640亿 = 47倍,同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%,净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法,即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率,英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意,这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设,实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说,当PEG值<1,说明被低估;当PEG值>1,说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出,他最理想的投资对象,其PEG值应该<0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切,但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的"铲子型"公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里,英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的(事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈,而非市场需求不够大)。 若以10年的长周期来看,英伟达的在当下这个基数上的平均年化增长速度将会在20%~30%之间(与长期数据中心市场增速相近)。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 持有看多,短期目标价150! 参考英伟达对今年2024年二季度的业绩指引,公司预测二季度营收会在280亿美元(正负2%),同时利润率和一季度基本持平。 参考一季度英伟达的净利润率57.14%,可以预测二季度的净利润是280*57.14%=160亿美元。二季度是2024年的4-6月,仍处于上半年,由于英伟达每个季度都在增长,估且用二季度的利润乘以4,换算成年化(虽然低估了,但没关系) 截止6月底,英伟达市值正好约3万亿美元,二季度净利润预估年度净利润为160*4=640亿美元,30000亿/640亿 = 47倍,同时这一季度对应2023年二季度的营收同比增长是106.4%,净利润同比增速是158.5%。 如果用PEG的算法,即PEG = 市盈率PE / 盈利增长率,英伟达的PEG为47/158 =0.3 注意,这里的47倍市盈率还是静态化全年利润为四倍二季度利润后的低估假设,实际的即时市盈率其实应该是低于47倍的。 一般来说,当PEG值<1,说明被低估;当PEG值>1,说明被高估。 彼得·林奇曾经指出,他最理想的投资对象,其PEG值应该<0.5。 尽管PEG这单一指标并不能说明一切,但也可以佐证这个业绩高速成长、护城河深厚的"铲子型"公司来说并不算多贵。 在这个AI爆发期和半导体向上周期里,英伟达业绩不增长几乎是不可能的(事实上现在台积电有限的高端产能仍然是英伟达业绩增长的主要瓶颈,而非市场需求不够大)。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","listText":"如果用一个词来形容本周的股市,你会希望是什么?疯狂星期五又来了,小虎君又来给大家发福利了,欢迎大家在评论区留言,参与互动,赢取虎币与老虎周边。这一周的股市表现相对波动较大。整体而言,美国股市三大指数均出现波动,且波动较为明显。受鲍威尔讲话影响,周二美国股市小幅下挫,标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别下跌1.53%和1.72%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.25%。美联储主席鲍威尔在美国参议院银行委员会的听证会上作证,警告今年初的强劲数据可能促使联储不再继续放缓、而是加快加息的脚步,最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。就在市场消化这一消息的过程中,受到影响流动性危机影响,美国股市再次下跌,标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别下跌1.85%和1.66%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.05%。周三,专注于投资加密货币的银行Silvergate关门大吉。但更大的雷爆在周四,硅谷银行出现流动性危机,这把投资者吓坏了,市场最担心的是,科技泡沫的破灭恐怕会传导至美国的金融体系,从而互联网泡沫破裂甚至金融危机将会重演。而周五的剧情还在上演,如果用一个词形容这一周的股市,你觉得哪个词较为贴切?为什么呢?【参与方式】在评论区留言!同时转发本贴!用一个词来形容这一周的股市,可以是诗词,也可以是影视台词,还可以是表情包。题材不限,请发挥你的想象力【评奖及发放规则】客观评分(50%):根据回复的互动&点赞数主观评分(50%):根据作品质量进行评审打分【活动时间】活动持续到3月17日【活动奖品】凡是在评论区发表作品,均可获得50虎币,评论区互动最高的1个虎友还有机会获得小虎周边一个。快来艾特你的朋友一起参与吧~<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","text":"如果用一个词来形容本周的股市,你会希望是什么?疯狂星期五又来了,小虎君又来给大家发福利了,欢迎大家在评论区留言,参与互动,赢取虎币与老虎周边。这一周的股市表现相对波动较大。整体而言,美国股市三大指数均出现波动,且波动较为明显。受鲍威尔讲话影响,周二美国股市小幅下挫,标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别下跌1.53%和1.72%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.25%。美联储主席鲍威尔在美国参议院银行委员会的听证会上作证,警告今年初的强劲数据可能促使联储不再继续放缓、而是加快加息的脚步,最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。就在市场消化这一消息的过程中,受到影响流动性危机影响,美国股市再次下跌,标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别下跌1.85%和1.66%,纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.05%。周三,专注于投资加密货币的银行Silvergate关门大吉。但更大的雷爆在周四,硅谷银行出现流动性危机,这把投资者吓坏了,市场最担心的是,科技泡沫的破灭恐怕会传导至美国的金融体系,从而互联网泡沫破裂甚至金融危机将会重演。而周五的剧情还在上演,如果用一个词形容这一周的股市,你觉得哪个词较为贴切?为什么呢?【参与方式】在评论区留言!同时转发本贴!用一个词来形容这一周的股市,可以是诗词,也可以是影视台词,还可以是表情包。题材不限,请发挥你的想象力【评奖及发放规则】客观评分(50%):根据回复的互动&点赞数主观评分(50%):根据作品质量进行评审打分【活动时间】活动持续到3月17日【活动奖品】凡是在评论区发表作品,均可获得50虎币,评论区互动最高的1个虎友还有机会获得小虎周边一个。快来艾特你的朋友一起参与吧~$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f27564cdc34a17a0ac11a0917622e215","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627555370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621731726,"gmtCreate":1672640859065,"gmtModify":1672640861802,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2023,人生经历全数打包,换个战场还能开张!","listText":"2023,人生经历全数打包,换个战场还能开张!","text":"2023,人生经历全数打包,换个战场还能开张!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442ee85d64f20daeb030845f94a73b7f","width":"852","height":"649"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621731726","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309327861182776,"gmtCreate":1716547181518,"gmtModify":1716547183539,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"经济敏感度有所增强","listText":"经济敏感度有所增强","text":"经济敏感度有所增强","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309327861182776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":304370520694936,"gmtCreate":1715330652388,"gmtModify":1715330654637,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"yesterday 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 从图上看很明显跌破了20日线,这周有可能反抽,但基于上述原因3月继续回调的概率较大,可能是2月cpi公布的前后?另外,CME观察仍然显示12月有可能降息25bp,我觉得这个预期早晚也是会修正的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 㕛判断错误,以为会在205那个阻力回调,结果是回调了,只象征性小回调一下。于是我的主力仓位在200被sell call行权卖出了,原计划回调到165以内接回来,但由于上周表现太过于强势,我下了sp 165和sp 175,原因是手上筹码不够,愿意更高一点接回。面对TSLA这种趋势中过于强势的股票,不要担心卖飞,多一点耐心,今年一定有倒车接人的机会,3月1日的发布会之后,如果预期落地,会有更好的机会。我的愿意175先小接盘,165和150开始主力接盘。顺便","listText":"复盘上周对cpi后的走势判断错了一半,为什么是一半?当时我说cpi之夜,大盘会冲高竭力然后回落。结果如图,cpi是14日周二,科技股周三还冲了一大波,周四出现回落,周五下跌留下缺口。上周下半场的回落主要来自继续加息预期的升温。之前说过,2月的25bp不重要,关键是3月,3月加息25bp也不重要,重要是对后面5月6月是否继续加息的预期,以及下半年不会降息的预期扭转。上周鹰王讲话非常有节奏地提高了期货市场对5月继续加息的预期。3月再加25bp,利率就到了4.75%-5%,这是过去两个月市场的终端利率预期。现在CME的观察预计5月大概率继续加息25bp,且有一半概率6月还会再加25bp,使得终端利率到5.25%-5.5%。修正了过去两个月对终端利率的预期,我觉得市场需要一定空间去适配这个修正。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 从图上看很明显跌破了20日线,这周有可能反抽,但基于上述原因3月继续回调的概率较大,可能是2月cpi公布的前后?另外,CME观察仍然显示12月有可能降息25bp,我觉得这个预期早晚也是会修正的。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 㕛判断错误,以为会在205那个阻力回调,结果是回调了,只象征性小回调一下。于是我的主力仓位在200被sell call行权卖出了,原计划回调到165以内接回来,但由于上周表现太过于强势,我下了sp 165和sp 175,原因是手上筹码不够,愿意更高一点接回。面对TSLA这种趋势中过于强势的股票,不要担心卖飞,多一点耐心,今年一定有倒车接人的机会,3月1日的发布会之后,如果预期落地,会有更好的机会。我的愿意175先小接盘,165和150开始主力接盘。顺便","text":"复盘上周对cpi后的走势判断错了一半,为什么是一半?当时我说cpi之夜,大盘会冲高竭力然后回落。结果如图,cpi是14日周二,科技股周三还冲了一大波,周四出现回落,周五下跌留下缺口。上周下半场的回落主要来自继续加息预期的升温。之前说过,2月的25bp不重要,关键是3月,3月加息25bp也不重要,重要是对后面5月6月是否继续加息的预期,以及下半年不会降息的预期扭转。上周鹰王讲话非常有节奏地提高了期货市场对5月继续加息的预期。3月再加25bp,利率就到了4.75%-5%,这是过去两个月市场的终端利率预期。现在CME的观察预计5月大概率继续加息25bp,且有一半概率6月还会再加25bp,使得终端利率到5.25%-5.5%。修正了过去两个月对终端利率的预期,我觉得市场需要一定空间去适配这个修正。$标普500(.SPX)$ 从图上看很明显跌破了20日线,这周有可能反抽,但基于上述原因3月继续回调的概率较大,可能是2月cpi公布的前后?另外,CME观察仍然显示12月有可能降息25bp,我觉得这个预期早晚也是会修正的。$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 㕛判断错误,以为会在205那个阻力回调,结果是回调了,只象征性小回调一下。于是我的主力仓位在200被sell call行权卖出了,原计划回调到165以内接回来,但由于上周表现太过于强势,我下了sp 165和sp 175,原因是手上筹码不够,愿意更高一点接回。面对TSLA这种趋势中过于强势的股票,不要担心卖飞,多一点耐心,今年一定有倒车接人的机会,3月1日的发布会之后,如果预期落地,会有更好的机会。我的愿意175先小接盘,165和150开始主力接盘。顺便","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2dd8655cb8352c174f4c77bece53b8d","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea483059fe18d0f92117ce04e3085943","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bc804fde1c66987a05a1e6c1868f894","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624007978","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624485773,"gmtCreate":1677648119292,"gmtModify":1677648120754,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624485773","repostId":"624966436","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624966436,"gmtCreate":1677029882225,"gmtModify":1703729206460,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀【2月22日】加息恐慌蔓延,美股重挫!今天买点啥","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法,包括对于大盘走势后续的看法?看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场2月22日,加息乌云笼罩,隔夜美股重挫。港股低开,恒指跌0.08%,国指跌0.66%,恒生科技指数跌1%。盘面上,大型科技股全线下跌,京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 齐挫;汽车股均下跌,体育用品股、光伏股、餐饮股、濠赌股下跌明显。另一方面,银行股走强撑盘,汇丰控股绩后涨5.56%,药品股、啤酒股多数上涨。美股市场美股周二低开低走,三大指数集体收跌。道指下挫近700点,标普500指数失守4000点关口。美元走强、美债收益率攀升。投资者担心美联储继续加息并长期维持高利率政策将导致经济衰退。最新财报预示着消费者状况转差。截至收盘,纳斯达克指数跌2.5%,道琼斯指数跌2.06%,标普500指数跌2%。标普500指数与道指创去年12月15日以来最差单日表现,纳指连跌三日至1月30日来最低。大型科技股集体下跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 跌约3%,","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法,包括对于大盘走势后续的看法?看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场2月22日,加息乌云笼罩,隔夜美股重挫。港股低开,恒指跌0.08%,国指跌0.66%,恒生科技指数跌1%。盘面上,大型科技股全线下跌,京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 齐挫;汽车股均下跌,体育用品股、光伏股、餐饮股、濠赌股下跌明显。另一方面,银行股走强撑盘,汇丰控股绩后涨5.56%,药品股、啤酒股多数上涨。美股市场美股周二低开低走,三大指数集体收跌。道指下挫近700点,标普500指数失守4000点关口。美元走强、美债收益率攀升。投资者担心美联储继续加息并长期维持高利率政策将导致经济衰退。最新财报预示着消费者状况转差。截至收盘,纳斯达克指数跌2.5%,道琼斯指数跌2.06%,标普500指数跌2%。标普500指数与道指创去年12月15日以来最差单日表现,纳指连跌三日至1月30日来最低。大型科技股集体下跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 跌约3%,","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法,包括对于大盘走势后续的看法?看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场2月22日,加息乌云笼罩,隔夜美股重挫。港股低开,恒指跌0.08%,国指跌0.66%,恒生科技指数跌1%。盘面上,大型科技股全线下跌,京东、$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 跌超3%,$腾讯控股(00700)$ 、$网易-S(09999)$ 、$快手-W(01024)$ 、$美团-W(03690)$ 齐挫;汽车股均下跌,体育用品股、光伏股、餐饮股、濠赌股下跌明显。另一方面,银行股走强撑盘,汇丰控股绩后涨5.56%,药品股、啤酒股多数上涨。美股市场美股周二低开低走,三大指数集体收跌。道指下挫近700点,标普500指数失守4000点关口。美元走强、美债收益率攀升。投资者担心美联储继续加息并长期维持高利率政策将导致经济衰退。最新财报预示着消费者状况转差。截至收盘,纳斯达克指数跌2.5%,道琼斯指数跌2.06%,标普500指数跌2%。标普500指数与道指创去年12月15日以来最差单日表现,纳指连跌三日至1月30日来最低。大型科技股集体下跌,$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 跌超5%,$奈飞(NFLX)$ 跌约3%,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2fd7ebbf31e2a47135d8abe97327340","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624966436","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624485424,"gmtCreate":1677648112068,"gmtModify":1677648113692,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624485424","repostId":"624014560","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624014560,"gmtCreate":1676943564950,"gmtModify":1703729206077,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀【2月21日】美股休市,英国股市刷新历史新高!今天买点啥","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法,包括对于大盘走势后续的看法?看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场2月21日讯,美股昨日休市,港股小幅低开,恒指跌0.13%,国指跌0.1%,恒生科技指数跌0.14%。盘面上,大型科技股涨跌参半,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、百度小幅上涨,京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 走低;昨日走强的内险股普跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00966\">$中国太平(00966)$</a> 跌2.5%,体育用品股、濠赌股走低。另一方面,证监会启动不动产私募投资基金试点,内房股涨幅居前,香港证监会计划允许散户交易大型加密货币,区块链概念股大涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">$美图公司(01357)$</a> 涨近6%。联想集团跌1.4%。绿新亲水胶体涨近15%,昨日闪崩跌超70%,公告称不知悉下跌原因。美股市场2月20日因“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”美股休市一天欧股主要指数周一收盘涨跌不一,德国DAX30指数跌0.03%,英国富时100指数涨0.12%,法国CAC40指数跌0.16%,欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.09%。其中,英股抹平上周五回落的跌幅,刷新截至上周四连续四日所创的收盘历史高位,连续第三个交易日收于8000点上方。周一欧股盘中刷洗日高时,美国WTI原油涨至77.51美元,日内涨逾1.5%,布伦特原油涨至8","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法,包括对于大盘走势后续的看法?看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场2月21日讯,美股昨日休市,港股小幅低开,恒指跌0.13%,国指跌0.1%,恒生科技指数跌0.14%。盘面上,大型科技股涨跌参半,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、百度小幅上涨,京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 走低;昨日走强的内险股普跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00966\">$中国太平(00966)$</a> 跌2.5%,体育用品股、濠赌股走低。另一方面,证监会启动不动产私募投资基金试点,内房股涨幅居前,香港证监会计划允许散户交易大型加密货币,区块链概念股大涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01357\">$美图公司(01357)$</a> 涨近6%。联想集团跌1.4%。绿新亲水胶体涨近15%,昨日闪崩跌超70%,公告称不知悉下跌原因。美股市场2月20日因“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”美股休市一天欧股主要指数周一收盘涨跌不一,德国DAX30指数跌0.03%,英国富时100指数涨0.12%,法国CAC40指数跌0.16%,欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.09%。其中,英股抹平上周五回落的跌幅,刷新截至上周四连续四日所创的收盘历史高位,连续第三个交易日收于8000点上方。周一欧股盘中刷洗日高时,美国WTI原油涨至77.51美元,日内涨逾1.5%,布伦特原油涨至8","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法,包括对于大盘走势后续的看法?看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场2月21日讯,美股昨日休市,港股小幅低开,恒指跌0.13%,国指跌0.1%,恒生科技指数跌0.14%。盘面上,大型科技股涨跌参半,$小米集团-W(01810)$ 、$美团-W(03690)$ 、百度小幅上涨,京东、$腾讯控股(00700)$ 、$快手-W(01024)$ 走低;昨日走强的内险股普跌,$中国太平(00966)$ 跌2.5%,体育用品股、濠赌股走低。另一方面,证监会启动不动产私募投资基金试点,内房股涨幅居前,香港证监会计划允许散户交易大型加密货币,区块链概念股大涨,$美图公司(01357)$ 涨近6%。联想集团跌1.4%。绿新亲水胶体涨近15%,昨日闪崩跌超70%,公告称不知悉下跌原因。美股市场2月20日因“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”美股休市一天欧股主要指数周一收盘涨跌不一,德国DAX30指数跌0.03%,英国富时100指数涨0.12%,法国CAC40指数跌0.16%,欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.09%。其中,英股抹平上周五回落的跌幅,刷新截至上周四连续四日所创的收盘历史高位,连续第三个交易日收于8000点上方。周一欧股盘中刷洗日高时,美国WTI原油涨至77.51美元,日内涨逾1.5%,布伦特原油涨至8","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d7da388220bfad782f62f7c19103ddd","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624014560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624579155,"gmtCreate":1677595044478,"gmtModify":1677595046079,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624579155","repostId":"624005705","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624005705,"gmtCreate":1676894259307,"gmtModify":1676894277810,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","authorIdStr":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"美元再度走强,美债继续攀升源自何故?","htmlText":"最近市场一直在反复博弈一个问题:衰退会不会到来?显然,上周公布的1月美国CPI和PPI双双超预期,也使得美债利率和美元明显走高。详细分析请点击《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/625663913\" target=\"_blank\">1月CPI为何会超预期了</a>》同时,其他但经济数据(如非农)继续保持保持强劲,市场也对美联储货币政策转向的预期开始逆转,目前市场已经隐含了美联储在未来数月内再次加息75个基点的情形,3月FOMC议息会议加息50个基点的可能性上升到了81.9%。综合来看,当前美联储收紧货币政策更多依靠加息,缩表速度相对此前开启QE时偏慢,导致流动性收紧不足。而财政支出力度并没有降低多少。美国流动性虽有所收紧,但与疫情前相比仍较宽松,这虽确实使政策收紧对经济的抑制较为温和,符合美联储在抑制通胀的同时也使经济能够软着陆的期望,但反过来也拖慢了通胀回落的速度.2023财年前四个月美国财政支出1.93万亿美元(历史新高),若以2019年同期作为基数来计算2020年1月起各月的年均增速,可以看到当前财政支出增速虽从前期高点回落,但仍高于疫情前平均水平。美国财政支出与财政收入对比1月ISM服务业PMI超预期抬升荣枯线上方(55.2 vs. 12月49.2),且新订单及商业活动修复明显。2 月密歇根消费者信心指数超预期走高至66.4(vs. 1月64.9),各个收入群体的消费信心在 11 月以来均有所改善。房利美购房者信心指数自去年11月以来的低点大幅反弹,建筑商调查数据也 12月起呈现修复迹象。1月非农新增就业51.7万人远超预期,创2022年7月以来最大增幅,休闲酒店、商业服务、零售等低端服务行业回升明显1月失业率回落至3.4%,创1969年以来新低;1月CPI同比回落幅度不及预期,整体同比6.4%,环比0.5%;1月零售消费环比超预期增长3","listText":"最近市场一直在反复博弈一个问题:衰退会不会到来?显然,上周公布的1月美国CPI和PPI双双超预期,也使得美债利率和美元明显走高。详细分析请点击《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/625663913\" target=\"_blank\">1月CPI为何会超预期了</a>》同时,其他但经济数据(如非农)继续保持保持强劲,市场也对美联储货币政策转向的预期开始逆转,目前市场已经隐含了美联储在未来数月内再次加息75个基点的情形,3月FOMC议息会议加息50个基点的可能性上升到了81.9%。综合来看,当前美联储收紧货币政策更多依靠加息,缩表速度相对此前开启QE时偏慢,导致流动性收紧不足。而财政支出力度并没有降低多少。美国流动性虽有所收紧,但与疫情前相比仍较宽松,这虽确实使政策收紧对经济的抑制较为温和,符合美联储在抑制通胀的同时也使经济能够软着陆的期望,但反过来也拖慢了通胀回落的速度.2023财年前四个月美国财政支出1.93万亿美元(历史新高),若以2019年同期作为基数来计算2020年1月起各月的年均增速,可以看到当前财政支出增速虽从前期高点回落,但仍高于疫情前平均水平。美国财政支出与财政收入对比1月ISM服务业PMI超预期抬升荣枯线上方(55.2 vs. 12月49.2),且新订单及商业活动修复明显。2 月密歇根消费者信心指数超预期走高至66.4(vs. 1月64.9),各个收入群体的消费信心在 11 月以来均有所改善。房利美购房者信心指数自去年11月以来的低点大幅反弹,建筑商调查数据也 12月起呈现修复迹象。1月非农新增就业51.7万人远超预期,创2022年7月以来最大增幅,休闲酒店、商业服务、零售等低端服务行业回升明显1月失业率回落至3.4%,创1969年以来新低;1月CPI同比回落幅度不及预期,整体同比6.4%,环比0.5%;1月零售消费环比超预期增长3","text":"最近市场一直在反复博弈一个问题:衰退会不会到来?显然,上周公布的1月美国CPI和PPI双双超预期,也使得美债利率和美元明显走高。详细分析请点击《1月CPI为何会超预期了》同时,其他但经济数据(如非农)继续保持保持强劲,市场也对美联储货币政策转向的预期开始逆转,目前市场已经隐含了美联储在未来数月内再次加息75个基点的情形,3月FOMC议息会议加息50个基点的可能性上升到了81.9%。综合来看,当前美联储收紧货币政策更多依靠加息,缩表速度相对此前开启QE时偏慢,导致流动性收紧不足。而财政支出力度并没有降低多少。美国流动性虽有所收紧,但与疫情前相比仍较宽松,这虽确实使政策收紧对经济的抑制较为温和,符合美联储在抑制通胀的同时也使经济能够软着陆的期望,但反过来也拖慢了通胀回落的速度.2023财年前四个月美国财政支出1.93万亿美元(历史新高),若以2019年同期作为基数来计算2020年1月起各月的年均增速,可以看到当前财政支出增速虽从前期高点回落,但仍高于疫情前平均水平。美国财政支出与财政收入对比1月ISM服务业PMI超预期抬升荣枯线上方(55.2 vs. 12月49.2),且新订单及商业活动修复明显。2 月密歇根消费者信心指数超预期走高至66.4(vs. 1月64.9),各个收入群体的消费信心在 11 月以来均有所改善。房利美购房者信心指数自去年11月以来的低点大幅反弹,建筑商调查数据也 12月起呈现修复迹象。1月非农新增就业51.7万人远超预期,创2022年7月以来最大增幅,休闲酒店、商业服务、零售等低端服务行业回升明显1月失业率回落至3.4%,创1969年以来新低;1月CPI同比回落幅度不及预期,整体同比6.4%,环比0.5%;1月零售消费环比超预期增长3","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8960b86907ea531ebfc869c1070ad909","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73df9a36b2fd2fe8e45b7d9225cafe2","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e31e4c12c5dd5337c8a0e8ec246f6ef7","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624005705","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624579385,"gmtCreate":1677595021047,"gmtModify":1677595022428,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624579385","repostId":"624880702","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624880702,"gmtCreate":1677228583206,"gmtModify":1677228650386,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"阿里巴巴23Q3财报分析:好过最慌时,恢复行径中","htmlText":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度(截止22年12月31日)业绩,整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元,与市场预期大致持平; 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元,高于市场预期13.3%;普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元);调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币,均高于市场预期。其中,核心平台电商的表现较弱,阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入(CMR)同比下降9%,在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长,其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元,国际零售收入同比增长26%,盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软,竞争依然激烈,期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软,主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动,曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑,变现能力下滑,作为公司主要的现金流来源,的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然,Q3(10-12月)的疫情影响带来的变量太大,先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工,后是因12月员工休假带来的停工,我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线,短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移,但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看,23Q4(1-3月)虽然不是购物旺季,但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复,而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷,但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑,但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼,更多业务自食其力,期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈,包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","listText":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度(截止22年12月31日)业绩,整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元,与市场预期大致持平; 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元,高于市场预期13.3%;普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元);调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币,均高于市场预期。其中,核心平台电商的表现较弱,阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入(CMR)同比下降9%,在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长,其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元,国际零售收入同比增长26%,盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软,竞争依然激烈,期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软,主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动,曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑,变现能力下滑,作为公司主要的现金流来源,的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然,Q3(10-12月)的疫情影响带来的变量太大,先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工,后是因12月员工休假带来的停工,我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线,短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移,但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看,23Q4(1-3月)虽然不是购物旺季,但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复,而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷,但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑,但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼,更多业务自食其力,期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈,包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","text":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度(截止22年12月31日)业绩,整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元,与市场预期大致持平; 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元,高于市场预期13.3%;普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元);调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币,均高于市场预期。其中,核心平台电商的表现较弱,阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入(CMR)同比下降9%,在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长,其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元,国际零售收入同比增长26%,盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软,竞争依然激烈,期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软,主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动,曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑,变现能力下滑,作为公司主要的现金流来源,的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然,Q3(10-12月)的疫情影响带来的变量太大,先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工,后是因12月员工休假带来的停工,我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线,短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移,但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看,23Q4(1-3月)虽然不是购物旺季,但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复,而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷,但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑,但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼,更多业务自食其力,期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈,包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1783996c16bc6df15a9fac40d74618cc","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8b27194f6797a449c581a56342c0dc5","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/112d157cfa8c5300407f4df7a695fa01","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624880702","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624579920,"gmtCreate":1677595011261,"gmtModify":1677595012740,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624579920","repostId":"624384760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624384760,"gmtCreate":1677078916250,"gmtModify":1677078943143,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"市场大跌,机构站队,意想不到的期权策略!","htmlText":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是,美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多,大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑,不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风,从策略来看机构操作确实很保守,哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因,市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料,暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计,(美联储货币政策委员会)FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期,“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌,机构势必会有所动作,不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell put:昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌,拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战,高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感,所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势,另外美元反弹趋势,似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“,开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put,行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元,期权总成交额166万美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ </a>这行权价,这到期日,信息量是不是很大?信息量更大的是,盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单: ","listText":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是,美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多,大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑,不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风,从策略来看机构操作确实很保守,哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因,市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料,暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计,(美联储货币政策委员会)FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期,“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌,机构势必会有所动作,不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell put:昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌,拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战,高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感,所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势,另外美元反弹趋势,似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“,开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put,行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元,期权总成交额166万美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ </a>这行权价,这到期日,信息量是不是很大?信息量更大的是,盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单: ","text":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是,美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多,大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑,不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风,从策略来看机构操作确实很保守,哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因,市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料,暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计,(美联储货币政策委员会)FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期,“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌,机构势必会有所动作,不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料$拼多多(PDD)$ 的sell put:昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌,拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战,高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感,所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势,另外美元反弹趋势,似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“,开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put,行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元,期权总成交额166万美元。$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ $PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ 这行权价,这到期日,信息量是不是很大?信息量更大的是,盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46105b56e488c399a77ea726aaff0e9","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e96eea80c86460475a4d051fae12db","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337084d803a04fe419e5712ae2698efe","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624384760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624579014,"gmtCreate":1677594980939,"gmtModify":1677594982559,"author":{"id":"3564367031412187","authorId":"3564367031412187","authorIdStr":"3564367031412187","name":"金蝉Catherine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52781272929ea9e286926d997a0852ad","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564367031412187"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624579014","repostId":"624186379","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624186379,"gmtCreate":1677157415991,"gmtModify":1677158041045,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"阿里Q3:利润暴增都是假象!","htmlText":"刚刚,电商巨头阿里巴巴发布了23财年三季报(截止22年12月31日的季度)。 其中,营收2477.56亿人民币,超出彭博分析师一致预期的2458.75亿,同比增长2.1%。净利润为457.46亿,同比增长138%。 财报公布之后,阿里巴巴美股盘前股价一度大涨7%: 这一幕和昨日披露财报的百度十分相似,皆是营收小幅超预期、净利润大超预期、盘前股价大涨,然而令人惊讶的是,百度在美股正式开盘之后,股价高开低走,最终逆势下跌2.6%。 阿里巴巴会步百度后尘吗? 具体来看,阿里巴巴三季度营收2477.56亿,虽然超出市场的预期,但幅度只有0.77%,撑不起股价大涨7%的场面: 细分来看,中国商业三季度营收1699.86亿,同比下滑1%;国际商业营收194.65亿,同比增长18%;本地生活服务营收131.64亿,同比增长6%;菜鸟营收165.53,同比增长27%;云业务营收201.79亿,同比增长3%;数字媒体及娱乐营收75.86亿,同比下滑6%;创新业务及其他营收8.23亿,同比下滑20%: 将中国商业继续细分,其中客户管理收入同比下降9%,主要由于消费需求减少、竞争持续,以及因内地新冠肺炎疫情病例增加导致供应链和物流受到影响,引致淘宝和天猫的线上实物商品GMV(剔除未支付订单)同比录得中单位数下降。 中国零售商业的直营及其他收入为人民币744.21亿,同比增长10%,主要是由于盒马和阿里健康的直营业务的收入增长所贡献。其中,盒马录得双位数的同店销售增长,主要是配送和运营效率的提升,阿里健康增长迅速则主要是因为新冠疫情带来医疗和保健需求大增。 显然,阿里健康的增长吃到了疫情红利,可持续性值得商榷。而阿里巴巴的核心业务淘宝和天猫GMV录得5%左右的下降,疫情影响是一过性,但竞争加剧值得投资者重视,尤其是京东宣布将在3月初上线百亿补贴,虽然","listText":"刚刚,电商巨头阿里巴巴发布了23财年三季报(截止22年12月31日的季度)。 其中,营收2477.56亿人民币,超出彭博分析师一致预期的2458.75亿,同比增长2.1%。净利润为457.46亿,同比增长138%。 财报公布之后,阿里巴巴美股盘前股价一度大涨7%: 这一幕和昨日披露财报的百度十分相似,皆是营收小幅超预期、净利润大超预期、盘前股价大涨,然而令人惊讶的是,百度在美股正式开盘之后,股价高开低走,最终逆势下跌2.6%。 阿里巴巴会步百度后尘吗? 具体来看,阿里巴巴三季度营收2477.56亿,虽然超出市场的预期,但幅度只有0.77%,撑不起股价大涨7%的场面: 细分来看,中国商业三季度营收1699.86亿,同比下滑1%;国际商业营收194.65亿,同比增长18%;本地生活服务营收131.64亿,同比增长6%;菜鸟营收165.53,同比增长27%;云业务营收201.79亿,同比增长3%;数字媒体及娱乐营收75.86亿,同比下滑6%;创新业务及其他营收8.23亿,同比下滑20%: 将中国商业继续细分,其中客户管理收入同比下降9%,主要由于消费需求减少、竞争持续,以及因内地新冠肺炎疫情病例增加导致供应链和物流受到影响,引致淘宝和天猫的线上实物商品GMV(剔除未支付订单)同比录得中单位数下降。 中国零售商业的直营及其他收入为人民币744.21亿,同比增长10%,主要是由于盒马和阿里健康的直营业务的收入增长所贡献。其中,盒马录得双位数的同店销售增长,主要是配送和运营效率的提升,阿里健康增长迅速则主要是因为新冠疫情带来医疗和保健需求大增。 显然,阿里健康的增长吃到了疫情红利,可持续性值得商榷。而阿里巴巴的核心业务淘宝和天猫GMV录得5%左右的下降,疫情影响是一过性,但竞争加剧值得投资者重视,尤其是京东宣布将在3月初上线百亿补贴,虽然","text":"刚刚,电商巨头阿里巴巴发布了23财年三季报(截止22年12月31日的季度)。 其中,营收2477.56亿人民币,超出彭博分析师一致预期的2458.75亿,同比增长2.1%。净利润为457.46亿,同比增长138%。 财报公布之后,阿里巴巴美股盘前股价一度大涨7%: 这一幕和昨日披露财报的百度十分相似,皆是营收小幅超预期、净利润大超预期、盘前股价大涨,然而令人惊讶的是,百度在美股正式开盘之后,股价高开低走,最终逆势下跌2.6%。 阿里巴巴会步百度后尘吗? 具体来看,阿里巴巴三季度营收2477.56亿,虽然超出市场的预期,但幅度只有0.77%,撑不起股价大涨7%的场面: 细分来看,中国商业三季度营收1699.86亿,同比下滑1%;国际商业营收194.65亿,同比增长18%;本地生活服务营收131.64亿,同比增长6%;菜鸟营收165.53,同比增长27%;云业务营收201.79亿,同比增长3%;数字媒体及娱乐营收75.86亿,同比下滑6%;创新业务及其他营收8.23亿,同比下滑20%: 将中国商业继续细分,其中客户管理收入同比下降9%,主要由于消费需求减少、竞争持续,以及因内地新冠肺炎疫情病例增加导致供应链和物流受到影响,引致淘宝和天猫的线上实物商品GMV(剔除未支付订单)同比录得中单位数下降。 中国零售商业的直营及其他收入为人民币744.21亿,同比增长10%,主要是由于盒马和阿里健康的直营业务的收入增长所贡献。其中,盒马录得双位数的同店销售增长,主要是配送和运营效率的提升,阿里健康增长迅速则主要是因为新冠疫情带来医疗和保健需求大增。 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